Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / How to Use the 2024 Rally to Get RICH (Do This NOW) 🚀 + Stock Market News 30 January 2024

Transcript

How to Use the 2024 Rally to Get RICH (Do This NOW) 🚀 + Stock Market News 30 January 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Thank you very much.
• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Matt, however, has lip-read and conscribed everything I just said.
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Shall we get cracking again?
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: I think we should.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Might, maybe.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Maybe we need to roll back just a little bit here.
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: All right, today exciting day, why?
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: Well, we've got the nastiness in the Middle East.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: We've got the biggest companies in the world reporting earnings today.
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: So far, of course, was exciting yesterday, but I want you to be the best informed investor there is out there so you really understand what the facts are.
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: That's going to move the market today.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: So when I walk you through that, then of course, you're super welcome to ask me a gazillion questions and I am going live with sound at Felix Rentsen-Oxlar webinar and literally 54 minutes where I'll be teaching a couple of hundred of you how to actually make money from your money and how we've helped thousands of people do the same, and how you can very, very simply trade this.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: The one stock completely based on rules, automated, doesn't take a lot of time, a couple of hours a week, and now that might make that might just make 2024 the year for you, seriously.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: So come and join me, it's completely free.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Felix Rentsen-Oxlar webinar in 50 something minutes live over there.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: Okay.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: So Iran urging diplomacy as the US is thinking about bombing something, and that's something we're going to get back to in a second because I think it's important.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: But I actually think that this is more important, and you know how much I love a US 10 year treasury yield chart.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: It doesn't get any better than that, does it?
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: And what does it mean?
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Well, very, very surprisingly, the federal government decided they'd need slightly less debt to be issued in this quarter.
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: Why is it surprising?
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: Because we just thought that they were spending faster than anybody and they thought, of sort of thought, that that was the sense of achievement that they could get, and therefore treasury yields have actually come down.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: Here we go.
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: So their borrowing estimates came out yesterday and this, by the way, is the new inflation treasury borrowing estimates.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: Like in the 2023, what moved markets was inflation 2024, it'll be treasury borrowing estimates, because the more the government borrows, the lower stock prices go.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Why?
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Because if they borrow more, they got to pay more interest and therefore it sucks more money out of the stock market.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: And there we are.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: Windows troubleshooter couldn't fix it.
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: No, no, I asked the clippy thing.
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: It didn't want to do it.
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: It said you haven't paid for the subscription.
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: So we had to come down very nicely here yesterday and it's basically this is basically what sums it up, and you know you all love a median rolling Z score chart as much.
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: The next go, don't you?
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: But basically, when rates go down, the S&P goes up about a percent and a half on a decent move.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: So, rates coming down, the government issuing a little bit less debt because they're slightly less off their rocker yesterday than they usually were, that's a good thing.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: Essentially, what they're saying is tax receipts are coming in a little bit thicker and they've got more cash lying around which they hadn't realized that they hadn't sent it to the Ukraine yet.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: Oh, I'm going to get some hate for that.
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: I mean, there's always somebody.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: Do you want Russia to take Moldova next?
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, ok.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: Well, what have we got here?
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: We've got the 10 year yield.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: It needs to come down and I'm pointing an arrow up, but that's because we very, very cleverly inverted the yield just to make the chart a little bit more confusing.
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: You know, test those gray matter cells of yours and you don't know the Nasdaq's up.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: But this gap between the two needs to be filled and the government issuing less debt could just be the thing that might actually fill it.
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: So this is positive, very, very positive for the market.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: Well, utility, which is sort of fear in the market, it's creeping up a little bit, but I wouldn't worry about it too much at this point.
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: It's super, super low.
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: So if you want to hedge your portfolios, it's super, super cheap.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: I'd highly encourage you to do that.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: There's a video out for that.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: Just type in Felix, never Lose.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: You'll find it on YouTube.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: Big head of mine and all that.
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: Now walk you through it for free.
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: But, yeah, the market's looking actually pretty peaceful on that front.
• 4:19
  Speaker 1: And then I think we're going to get into a few catch up trades.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: Now it could be interesting.
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: So pay attention.
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: There's one coming up towards the end as well, two actually and one is that well, the memes in yellow on my chart are still pretty cheap.
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: Well, if crap is ever cheap and compared to the S&P, which is the yellow line up here, so I think there is a chance we might get another meme rally.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: If that's the sort of thing you like to trade, that might be something.
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: Now, some people might think that so far is mean.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: I think that's a bit harsh on so far, but you get the idea.
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: It's typically non profitable tech that nobody quite knows what the hell they do.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: So far not being profitable tech.
• 5:01
  Speaker 1: Hopefully people are going to start figuring out what that is.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: Overall equity positions.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: So the positioning people have in stocks is high, but not crazily high.
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: I mean crazily high was like 2018, 2014, that kind of thing, beginning of 2022.
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: So we still got a fair way to go.
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: I think there's rallies got some legs in it.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: That's exactly what I'm trying to say, with the help of some of my chat friends, and people are also getting a little bit bullish again.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: Calls, essentially saying I think the market's going to go up.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: I'm going to buy a call because I haven't got the faintest idea what I'm doing.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: Typically, why people buy calls Although at the moment actually it's not a bad idea because they're quite cheap but we've been higher again in towards the end of last year, middle of last year, 2021.
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: There are a few moments and we were higher, but we're getting a little bit towards the exuberance, excitement kind of face, but not to a crazy degree.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: And we look at the life market in the second.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: Now, what do we do about the Iranians?
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: Well, the Iranians apparently don't like the prospect of the US bombing something that might belong to them.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: What do you think the US is going to do?
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: I think they're going to bomb something in like Syria or somewhere like that, where no one really cares or where no one really knows where that is, whereas if they bomb something in Iran, they really escalate.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: Escalate this, and the Iran does have its ability to inflict some pain.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: Unless somebody wants to full out war with Iran, there's not any appetite for that right now.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: All the oil tankers go past Iran.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: Have a look on a map.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: What does it mean, though?
• 6:41
  Speaker 1: Well, anyways, peace out.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: That's not the right chart, is it?
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: No, no, that's not it either.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: There was meant to be an oil chart here.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: Let's find one, shall we?
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: Let's find one.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: Here's the pre-market as well.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: We'll look at that in a second.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: We actually wanted to look at an oil chart, and pretty much any oil chart will do.
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: Where's text and intermediate, or something like that.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: We'll do the trick.
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: And what do you see when you look at oil?
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: Well, it's strangely not rallied that much, and it hasn't managed to break through its two in a day.
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: It's 100 day moving average line, and it's a little surprising.
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: You'd think it'd be in the 90s with what's going on in the Middle East, but it just hasn't.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: I think there is an opportunity for this rally to go a little higher.
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: I would have made some money, obviously.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: I looked at it.
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: I think we were here around at about 75, but I bottled out.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: I would have made some money, but never mind.
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: So about the money you do make, not the money you don't make.
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: So very surprising to me that oil is in the higher Now, the Saudis apparently throttling demand somewhat, according to a Ramco.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: So it could be that rates of oil prices do go a little higher.
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: What's this all about?
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: This is the sort of chart you're going to see from people who are going to scream bubble, bubble.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: And you could argue there is an AI bubble out there somewhere.
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: So this basically says to you the top 10 mega caps as a proportion of all the basically US listed large caps.
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: What proportion are they?
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: In 2000, it was about 32%.
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: The top 10 stocks.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: Even bankers can count the top 10 stocks.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: Where 32% of the market Right now we're at.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: Where are we at?
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: I'd call it 20, 29%, something like that.
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: So we're below 2000 bonkers levels, but we are a pretty elevated level.
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: So the bigger Nvidia gets, particularly in Microsoft, the more this kind of actually risks a bubble type situation, because that's all AI right and it can go on for a while.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: But just watch this chart.
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: You don't want it to go up too much because the 2000 comparison isn't really a pretty one Now.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: The other thing is that I think banks are making a comeback, not in service or ethics or morals or caring for the little guy, but in terms of stock prices, which means bankers share based compensation as going through the roof.
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: Yay for the investment banking gang.
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: Okay, no one's moving on that one.
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: The banks recovered a fair bit last quarter, but they're kind of lagging the market so far for 2021.
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: The reason they might benefit somewhat might be worth having a look at some trade ideas here.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: My financial advice, just a thought, is that the banking regulation that's coming in it's getting watered down, surprise, surprise.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: Do you think paying $3 billion or whatever they pay to world street politicians might help with that?
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: Possibly, just possibly election year too.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: So, yes, it's getting watered down, so the requirements won't be as harsh as what the market had previously been expecting and therefore they will be able to afford the third house and the second yacht and the fourth mistress, which is, of course, exactly what you've been rooting for, and therefore counting to 11 could be a banker challenge.
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah, we can't do that.
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: We've only got 10 fingers, most of us, except for the inbred ones.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: So what else is coming up today?
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: Well, a couple of things, just one or two, nothing to be too concerned about.
• 10:33
  Speaker 1: Microsoft reporting today, google reporting today.
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: We're going to get consumer confidence out.
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: Today.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: We're going to get Jolt's job opening data Jolting you out of your seat and apparently, chili's unemployment figures and I know you all love and really worry about Chili's unemployment data Plus US and EU trade and technology councillors meeting today.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: But another little bit of news here is consumer has still got four trillion of cash in their checking accounts and they could therefore continue to spend it on Taylor Swift tickets, which you know it's good if you're Taylor Swift.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: What else we got?
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: Oh, yes, come and join me in 45 minutes live, like we're already live.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: This will be life of the life, this will be fun.
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: So, felix Ransseldorf, slash webinar and I'll teach you our trading protocol.
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: Seriously one stock, three rules, full automation.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: We'll do some live trades together.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: Be great fun.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: We do this intentionally for beginners.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: Now, if you're already trading a bit, brilliant, I think you'll still benefit from it.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: But if you have never, but you've thought, wouldn't it be nice if my money worked a little harder than me?
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: 2024 should be that year where your money works harder for you than you work for the money.
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: Join me at Felix Ransseldorf slash webinar and let's run through a couple of things.
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: I'll take your questions as well.
• 11:53
  Speaker 1: Heatmap, microsoft app, nvidia app, tesla app who cares about the rest?
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: Right, but everything else is sort of moderately down.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Nothing too, too, too too bad here.
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: Bank of America is up a little bit.
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: Our portfolio is up quite nicely.
• 12:08
  Speaker 1: We're up 12% so far for January.
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: Let's return.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: And capital employed.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: We did 100 plus in each of the last two years.
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: So come and join me on the webinar and figure out how we do that.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: Home prices month on month fallen.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: Oh, the Fed's going to be happy.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: Jerome Powell is doing a little bonga bonga dance that he learned in Davos.
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: Did you go to Davos?
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: Probably not, right.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: They went in your hooker's leg.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: Now what about the earnings?
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: The big boys report after the market today, microsoft and Google, as does AMD.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: Whoever asked about that just now?
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: It's tomorrow, jeannie, I think.
• 12:54
  Speaker 1: Did you ask about that yesterday too?
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: Somebody asked about yesterday too.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: No, it's happening.
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: Tonight after the market.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: Pfizer's reported better than expected and General Motors pretty decent profit, but Revenue was, I don't know.
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: Beat on revenue as well.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: Msci that's a stock I actually quite like.
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: We're getting Starbucks later on today.
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: Ups slight beat Pfizer very good beat.
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: So far we continue to beat, which of course, exactly what we want keeps the party going.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: Bloomberg's, of course, running with IMF says the world's going to grow more because of the US strength and China fiscal support.
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: How about US fiscal support and China fiscal support?
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: Would not be the more appropriate message.
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: But then we are reading the US edition, so you have to cater to your audience.
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: I wonder what it says on the Asian edition.
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: Same thing, bold.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: The reason the US isn't in a recession is because the government spending like mad.
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: China's just started to spend a little bit like mad.
• 14:10
  Speaker 1: Ups is cutting 12,000 jobs.
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: I thought everybody at UPS now earned $400,000 a year to drive around.
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: Oops, you're sucking them all.
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: Are you replacing them with AI and automation and robots, potentially drones?
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: That sort of thing?
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: Never saw that coming.
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: Unions really are short-sighted idiots, aren't they?
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: Never mind.