Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Rugpull Imminent + Stock Market News 17 April 2024

Transcript

Rugpull Imminent + Stock Market News 17 April 2024 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Felix, here from Paradise with your market update.
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: Rock Paul from Paradise.
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: What's going on?
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: The Bank of America survey, which is this massive poll of Wall Street, it's just come out and it gives us exactly the same type of numbers that we saw the last time, just before the market tanked, and the time before that, and the time before that and the time before that.
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: And I want to walk you through this so that you are the best informed investor and trader out there.
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: That's what this community is all about.
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: I've done one better, in fact.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: I've also put all of the data, all of the charts and explanation, into a document you can download for free.
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: So get your hands on that, felixfriendsorg, like the pool, felixfriendsorg, download it and you get to see exactly what I'm looking at here.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: So let me shrink myself to the appropriate size and you can see I'm on a laptop today and walk you through this.
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: So the SMP is taking a significant nosedive.
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: It's indicating a sell signal, heading sort of towards the 40-week low or something like that.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: I'm still here, yeah, just the power of a little bit of a funny thing here, and they got brownouts here, so it makes life very exciting.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: This is the sentiment indicator from Bank of America and whenever it hits these highs of being most bullish, what happens to the market?
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Well, the market does exactly the opposite and we are hitting a high here.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: We did hit a high in 21.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: We hit a high in 21.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: We hit a high in 2018.
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: We hit a high in 2012, in 2009, 10, and so on.
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: So these guys, in a sense, get it wrong very reliably.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: So when they're saying everyone's bullish, everyone's buying everything, that's generally the moment to step back from the ledge, as one of our mentors keeps telling me when I ask him about trade ideas is felix, why don't you sleep on it?
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: And I'm like, okay, stepping away from the ledge.
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: I, I get your hint and that's the benefit of having people around me.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: You've got like.
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: He's been a market maker and trader for like 30 years, something like that, and that's tremendous to be around.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: But to get back to today's here, investors, for the first time, expect economic growth globally to actually accelerate, and you might think, felix, you're getting this wrong.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: That is a bullish signal.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: When things go up like the economy, then the stock market does well, not.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: So, my friend, when we get these massive inflection points in expectations of a stronger economy.
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: What happens?
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: We peak, we peak, we peak, we peak, we peak every time.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: That doesn't mean we have to peak this week, of course, but it does mean that the peak is coming to a place near you fairly soon.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: And then, if you look at the next thing here, a recession is apparently unlikely in the next 12 months.
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: Say 87 percent sorry, 78 percent for Germany.
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: We read numbers backwards.
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: I don't know why they do that.
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: 78 percent say it's unlikely.
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: And again, whenever you hit that kind of level, let me draw a line across.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: Well, when you hit those high confidence levels just before, you kind of peak, right.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: So Bank of America, reliably incompetent, and everybody is now expecting not everybody, but more and more people are expecting that there is going to be no landing, as in the economy will not have a dip, there won't be a recession.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: Everything is hunky dory and that just it's kind of baffling, because the only reason we haven't got a recession is because the government is paying its way out of it.
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: Now you could say, if the orange one wins, I mean the Donald, then he might spend even more on infrastructure and border walls and all that kind of thing, possibly, and you might get more debt.
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: But the real, real economy isn't doing as wonderfully the private side as the government side would like it to have and we're now only expecting two rate cuts.
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: Two rate cuts isn't a lot, and two rate cuts basically mean that a lot of the growth story that we've seen since December is poof up in smoke, because in December we were expecting six rate cuts, now we're expecting two.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: Maybe Papa Powell said yesterday higher, for longer, for longer, for longer, and he can wait and he's patient, changing his tune somewhat, which is why the market is turning fairly sour here, especially small caps.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: Now bond yields, yeah, also expected to be lower.
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: I think we probably skip past that.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: But if you look at the expectations we're getting, it's essentially we're still in stagflation land.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: 65% of these Wall Street nutters sorry smart bankers have that come across as believable.
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: You get the idea.
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: Saying stagflation is coming.
• 5:30
  Speaker 1: 12% took too much powder last night and saying it's a boom, no matter what happens.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: Is it 1987?
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: And 9% expect this Goldilocks.
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: Goldilocks means everything turns out just perfectly, everything is just exactly as you wished it to be, which almost never happens.
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: Well, for most people it never happens, and profit expectations are also the highest since August.
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: And you might be thinking, felix, you're being a bit of a misery here, that's a good thing.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: When profit expectations are high, high profit expectations means it's harder to beat them.
• 6:05
  Speaker 1: Being a bit of a misery here, that's a good thing.
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: When profits expectations are high, high profit expectations means it's harder to beat them.
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: You want low profit expectations.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: That's when the market goes up.
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: The market is forward looking, the market's expecting a lot.
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: When the market expects a lot and it doesn't get what it wants, what happens?
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: Well, the market isn't happy.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: What happened here?
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: Where did we go?
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: What happened Microsoft?
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: Sorry, let me go back to that chart then.
• 6:32
  Speaker 1: And there it is stagflation.
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: That's the last one we looked at.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: What about this one?
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: Inflation expectations.
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: Well, you see that Inflation expectations are moving up.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: Stagflation People are expecting inflation to stick around.
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: What's happening in the Middle East might not be hugely beneficial, because oil prices will keep higher for longer.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: It puts a massive strain on shipping costs because all the ships have to go all the way around Africa to go to Europe, which is incredibly expensive.
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: And Also, higher inflation means a higher dollar, and a stronger dollar means lower earnings for the biggest stocks out there your Microsoft's, your Apple's, your Netflix, who have almost half of their customers outside the US of A and therefore they are collecting that revenue in donkey coins, which aren't worth very much when US interest rates stay higher for longer, and that means that we'll not beat revenue expectations and profit expectations as much.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: So there's quite a lot in here that's sort of screaming, you know.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: Let's worry about this.
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: So right now, what are the risks?
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: Right now, the risks are basically inflation is higher.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: So right now, what are the risks?
• 7:50
  Speaker 1: Right now, the risks are basically inflation is higher and that central banks have these nightmare flashbacks to the 70s, where they cut too soon and they'll therefore cut too late.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: When they cut too late, it means we get a period of stock prices not doing as well because we get disappointed, and then, by cutting too late, they cause a recession, which again means stocks are not super, super happy.
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: So does that mean we can't make money?
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: No, of course it doesn't.
• 8:14
  Speaker 1: You can always make money, and if you joined my last live trading session, which we did like 12 hours ago, something which was super fun then you would have seen exactly how we trade with just three rules and how beginners can do it.
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: If you're curious about that, come and sign up for the next one.
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: That I'll do and I'll announce it in a couple of days.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: But overall, when you see markets allocating this much of their money to stocks compared to you know, this is how much overweight there are stocks compared to bonds and other investments at some point the party pops.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: Parties do not continue forever.
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: Well, and in the Philippines, they do continue almost forever here, but that's something.
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: Now, the other thing is that we were saying well, they've got so much cash lying around, all these funds.
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: Surely, therefore, they can deploy the cash and buy more stocks?
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: Well, the amount of cash they've got has actually fallen quite significantly, so we're no longer at these levels of oh my God, they've got a huge amount of cash, and so, therefore, again something that isn't as bullish as we'd say, gold party seems a little overdone, possibly according to Wall Street, according to the global fund managers, and if you take all of that together, really, the best thing to do is go for a swim in the glorious pool here behind me which is what I'm going to do in a moment and use these opportunities to recession proof-proof your portfolio and your income streams and I can't say this often enough you need to have multiple income streams.
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: It's the only way to be safe.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: I know people who've got brilliant jobs, amazing jobs, and they have the big house and the beach house and the three cars jobs.
• 10:11
  Speaker 1: And they have the big house and the beach house and the three cars and then he gets fired and he gets only an eight-week payoff, not the six months he was expecting.
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: And now he's like but what do I do?
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: And life throws you things sometimes you didn't expect and it is much, much better to be prepared for it, and so you don't have to go through what I went through some time back.
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: So if you want to learn more about that, check out our coaching, our mentoring.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: If you're interested, then head over to phoenixfriendsorg slash coaching and have a chat with us to see if that's something you might want to explore.
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: But the most important thing I think today is just study the data, just become a really, really, really well-informed investor, and you can do that by going to phoenixfriendsorg slash.
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: Rock like the pool, and I love you for tuning in.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: I will update you tomorrow with some glorious, beautiful, insanely beautiful footage of this beautiful little eyelid that I'm on.
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: It feels like what Bali must have been like in the 70s.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: I wasn't alive in the 70s, but that's what I hear and it's just glorious, a little surfer paradise, basically.
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: So I'll explore that.
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: I'll keep you up to date with what's going on.
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: I thank you for tuning in.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: I thank you for watching.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: I wish you a beautiful, fantastic, productive day where you learn a lot, where you get better, where you get smarter, where you build skills and knowledge.