Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFL Week 14 with Scooch, Darren Rovell, and Simon Hunter

Transcript

NFL Week 14 with Scooch, Darren Rovell, and Simon Hunter · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:09
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites to the podcast from the Action Network.
0:17
Speaker 1: I am Chad Melman. In a few minutes, I will
0:21
Speaker 1: be joined by Mr Bob Scucci and later on in
0:24
Speaker 1: the show, Danren Ravel and Simon Hunter are gonna come on.
0:28
Speaker 1: We've got some atoning to do because we did not
0:32
Speaker 1: do that well in the super contests this week. We
0:34
Speaker 1: needed the Vikings to get us over the edge and
0:37
Speaker 1: get us a three and two week. Instead we went
0:40
Speaker 1: two and three. Sure Mr Ravell will have something to
0:43
Speaker 1: say about that. I'm glad he can be on the
0:46
Speaker 1: podcast because Darren for his points bet promotion, everyone knows
0:52
Speaker 1: Fade Revel. He makes one bet, you make the other
0:56
Speaker 1: side of the bet with improved odds through points Bet.
1:01
Speaker 1: Last week it was will Tom Brady and Deshaun Watson
1:05
Speaker 1: throw for more than four five passing yards. Darren took
1:09
Speaker 1: the under Fans took the over came down to the
1:12
Speaker 1: final drive and the overhead, which means Darren went on
1:17
Speaker 1: a bucking bronco yesterday. He's feeling a little sore, his
1:20
Speaker 1: neck hurts and he has a boo boo on his elbow.
1:23
Speaker 1: But we'll come on late, come on later, we'll talk
1:25
Speaker 1: about the new fade Ravel, which will be the Eagles
1:27
Speaker 1: and the Giants, local teams for points bet in New
1:32
Speaker 1: Jersey on Monday night football. Don't forget Scooch and I
1:37
Speaker 1: every Sunday from noon to one Radio dot Com the
1:41
Speaker 1: radio dot Com app such for you Better You Bet.
1:44
Speaker 1: It is a rip roaring our of fast paced action,
1:50
Speaker 1: second only to this thirty minutes. I'm going to do
1:53
Speaker 1: a Scooch right now, Bob Scucci, Mr Boyd Gaming, himself
2:15
Speaker 1: bookmaker for the Orleans and all the other books owned
2:20
Speaker 1: by Boyd Gaming. I hate football when you have a
2:26
Speaker 1: bad week. Don't you hate it? Oh? My god, I
2:28
Speaker 1: hate it like I hate football so much that on
2:32
Speaker 1: Sunday night, I chose to have dinner with my family.
2:37
Speaker 1: Wow with the TV off, Jess. Wow, that's saying something now.
2:46
Speaker 1: My wife said she wanted us to do something as
2:49
Speaker 1: a family on Sunday afternoon, and I actually agreed because
2:57
Speaker 1: it was going so badly. The truth is we end
3:00
Speaker 1: up not doing anything because you know, one of my
3:01
Speaker 1: kids was going someplace, another kid was going another place,
3:04
Speaker 1: and so I was by myself to watch the games
3:07
Speaker 1: in my misery, watch football as a family. Yes, we do.
3:15
Speaker 1: Come to think of it, honestly, the option that she
3:19
Speaker 1: wanted us to do that day. She's like, we should
3:21
Speaker 1: all go go ax throwing, which I guess is a
3:24
Speaker 1: thing now, and um my response is, yeah, that's exactly
3:31
Speaker 1: what you want to do after Thanksgiving when you've spent
3:33
Speaker 1: all that time together, is go give your children lethal weapons.
3:43
Speaker 1: That was the it is the thing now. So I
3:45
Speaker 1: was in Indianapolis and right downtown there's the Bad Axe
3:49
Speaker 1: Throwing uh store or whatever it is. It's the Bad
3:55
Speaker 1: axe Throwing Place, that's the name of it. Don't know
4:00
Speaker 1: why that's why is this a thing? How is this
4:02
Speaker 1: a good idea you give? And also, by the way,
4:04
Speaker 1: I think you can drink at these places, So how
4:07
Speaker 1: is it a good idea to give people alcohol and access?
4:10
Speaker 1: It makes no sense to me. I don't know where
4:14
Speaker 1: this came up. I don't I have no idea. It's stupid.
4:18
Speaker 1: It's stupid. You know what else is stupid? Betting on
4:21
Speaker 1: the Cleveland Browns Road favorites. Yeah, that's pretty stupid. My
4:26
Speaker 1: heart they're playing my heart hurts because it's a rough week.
4:32
Speaker 1: It was a really, really rough week. So you gotta
4:38
Speaker 1: get back on the horse. Scooch, I went six and
4:40
Speaker 1: ten in Project to fifty six. Anyone can follow that
4:44
Speaker 1: in the Action Network app, which is where I'm getting
4:46
Speaker 1: all the data that we're gonna talk about today, the
4:48
Speaker 1: free Action Network app. I had been doing so well.
4:51
Speaker 1: I was one oh one and seventy seven betting every
4:53
Speaker 1: single game on the year. I'm not one oh seven
4:56
Speaker 1: and eighty seven. Not as good, A little disappointed. My
5:00
Speaker 1: is really bad week. It was my first like significant
5:03
Speaker 1: lose money week. Um, I gotta get over it. I
5:06
Speaker 1: gotta move on. Still solid, though pretty solid. I wanted
5:11
Speaker 1: to finish like close. Now I'll be happy to dot.
5:17
Speaker 1: What do we do with these two loser teams and
5:19
Speaker 1: the Bears and the Cowboys that are playing on Thursday night? Scooch, Well,
5:23
Speaker 1: you know, both teams still draw a lot of attention
5:26
Speaker 1: as bad as they've been playing, so it shouldn't be
5:29
Speaker 1: as bad as some some of the other matchups we
5:32
Speaker 1: could have had. Um. We we set the Cowboys at
5:36
Speaker 1: a three points favorite. Most of the money's coming in
5:39
Speaker 1: on the Bears if anything's going to come down to
5:41
Speaker 1: like two and a half. Tough to make Cowboys a
5:45
Speaker 1: road favorite. Uh, As bad as they've been playing, especially
5:48
Speaker 1: since the Bears finally got what most would consider a
5:52
Speaker 1: pretty good win, even though it's against a bad Lions
5:55
Speaker 1: team on Thanksgiving. Um, I think the read is the
5:59
Speaker 1: right number. Um. I like the fact that the sharp
6:04
Speaker 1: guys are taking the Bears a little bit because it
6:06
Speaker 1: will offset some of the public money on on the Cowboys.
6:10
Speaker 1: Right now, it's about a three to one ratio Cowboys
6:12
Speaker 1: to Bears from the public, but the money is kind
6:15
Speaker 1: of offset by some pretty decent sized bets on the Bears.
6:21
Speaker 1: Sharps are coming in and the Bears at plus three. Huh, Yeah,
6:26
Speaker 1: that says something that says quite a bit about how
6:28
Speaker 1: far far down this Cowboys team has come. I mean
6:32
Speaker 1: still early. But boys, the public just loving the Cowboys
6:35
Speaker 1: right now in this game. Yeah, in this game, Yeah absolutely,
6:41
Speaker 1: And and you know they really should. I mean, they're
6:45
Speaker 1: the better team. I mean, the Bears just got one
6:48
Speaker 1: good win against the bad team, and just because the
6:51
Speaker 1: Cowboys lost to a pretty good Bills team shouldn't be
6:55
Speaker 1: enough to dissuade the public that had been kind of
6:57
Speaker 1: on the Cowboys last a few weeks to suddenly get
7:00
Speaker 1: off them. Um, it seems like a public game. I
7:03
Speaker 1: I see the public. I understand why they're bet in
7:06
Speaker 1: this game, and um, like I said, I'm just glad
7:08
Speaker 1: we're getting a little money to offset that. Speaking of Buffalo,
7:12
Speaker 1: I don't want to talk about the Bears anymore than
7:14
Speaker 1: I have to. Speaking of Buffalo, Baltimore is visiting Buffalo.
7:19
Speaker 1: I know it's the flex game, but in the order
7:21
Speaker 1: that I look at, it's still listed as a one
7:23
Speaker 1: o'clock game. So we're gonna talk about it right now.
7:26
Speaker 1: They are a five and a half point favorites the
7:28
Speaker 1: Ravens on the road, five and a half point favorites
7:31
Speaker 1: against Buffalo. You go ahead. I got an opinion, but
7:36
Speaker 1: you go ahead. Um well, it's it's tough to bet
7:42
Speaker 1: against the Ravens right now. You know, last week was
7:45
Speaker 1: a real test for them, and coming up against a
7:48
Speaker 1: great Niners team, says says quite a lot about going
7:52
Speaker 1: up against one of the best defenses. It's not the
7:54
Speaker 1: best defense in the NFL. Uh, tough to stop Lamar
7:58
Speaker 1: Jackson and uh it's uh, you know, if the Bills
8:04
Speaker 1: do have a good defense, So if the team can
8:06
Speaker 1: do it, uh, you know, the Bills at home, especially
8:10
Speaker 1: if they get a little bit of weather it would,
8:13
Speaker 1: it would kind of play in their favor. But we
8:17
Speaker 1: have to just respect where the public is going to
8:19
Speaker 1: be betting in this one, and we try to set
8:21
Speaker 1: it as high as we could, uh, which we felt
8:25
Speaker 1: was right around six. We did open six and got
8:29
Speaker 1: an immediate bet from the Sharp guys, went right down
8:32
Speaker 1: to five and a half, and we've been there ever since.
8:35
Speaker 1: So five and a half. The Sharp guys aren't really
8:37
Speaker 1: weighing in yet. But I do think this is a
8:41
Speaker 1: spot where if if they're gonna play a game, they're
8:44
Speaker 1: gonna they're gonna bet the Bills in this one. I
8:46
Speaker 1: feel like Buffalo's weakness is there a rushing game defensively
8:54
Speaker 1: and so you've got Lamar Jackson who can really just
8:56
Speaker 1: slice through anything right now, and mark Ingram to follow up.
9:01
Speaker 1: Like I would worry about Buffalo in this spot. I know,
9:05
Speaker 1: like five and a half is a decent amount of
9:07
Speaker 1: points against a team that it is what nine and
9:10
Speaker 1: three in the Buffalo Bills. Yep, But wow, like Baltimore
9:16
Speaker 1: strength is Buffalo's weakness? Yeah yeah, And uh, I mean
9:22
Speaker 1: the Ravens are coming off a real physical game, uh
9:28
Speaker 1: well against the Niners, and so sometimes that does when
9:31
Speaker 1: you go when you go on the road after a tough,
9:33
Speaker 1: physical game, Uh, you're not atent. So, I mean there's
9:38
Speaker 1: a lot of things playing in the Bill's favor in
9:40
Speaker 1: this one. Uh. It's just tough to bet against the
9:43
Speaker 1: hottest team in the NFL. I mean, we did kind
9:47
Speaker 1: of favor them last week with the Niners getting six points.
9:51
Speaker 1: We felt like the six points that the Niners were
9:53
Speaker 1: getting last week was a little too much. Uh, it
9:57
Speaker 1: was kind of the same thing in this situation where
9:59
Speaker 1: it's the same point spread. Only Ravens are on the
10:02
Speaker 1: road here. Um, and uh, it's just a lot of
10:06
Speaker 1: points to be laying against a pretty good team. Football
10:10
Speaker 1: is so hard. Washington goes on the road as a
10:12
Speaker 1: nearly two touchdown dog against the Green Bay Packers. Indications
10:18
Speaker 1: indications are that this line will move in the Redskins direction.
10:23
Speaker 1: That's according to line Predictor. Are you seeing the same thing? Yeah,
10:28
Speaker 1: Well we opened fourteen on the Packers, so so it's right.
10:32
Speaker 1: So it's right. Yeah, absolutely. Um, we went down to
10:39
Speaker 1: thirteen and a half, they took thirteen and a half.
10:41
Speaker 1: We went down the third team. Uh no, I if
10:45
Speaker 1: some of the value has been taken out of that.
10:47
Speaker 1: Now they're not quite getting two touchdowns, but still, especially
10:51
Speaker 1: after seeing you know, the Redskins last week being competitive,
10:56
Speaker 1: the Packers are not the dominant kind of team that
10:58
Speaker 1: can be touched out. So um, we felt that we
11:02
Speaker 1: wanted to get a little Redskin money here. That's why
11:06
Speaker 1: we did open it so high. We know it'll be
11:08
Speaker 1: one of the games that kind of everybody puts in
11:09
Speaker 1: the parlays. So a week with a lot of big favorites,
11:13
Speaker 1: a lot of double digits favorites this week or close
11:16
Speaker 1: to double digits. Uh so we know it's the kind
11:18
Speaker 1: of week where the public is just going to be
11:20
Speaker 1: betting a lot of these big favorites. Tough, tough week
11:24
Speaker 1: for teasers, Scooch. A lot, a lot of big teasers
11:32
Speaker 1: went down last week. Huge teasers went down, and anybody
11:37
Speaker 1: who was like teasing the Chiefs, anyone who was teasing
11:40
Speaker 1: the Panthers, like these were tough spots for people. Yeah, yeah, absolutely,
11:46
Speaker 1: I mean it's always good for the house. I mean
11:48
Speaker 1: we didn't have a great weekend. I mean we didn't
11:50
Speaker 1: do well on Thanksgiving or Saturday with all the college games.
11:55
Speaker 1: We lost most of them. But Sunday was a decent
11:58
Speaker 1: game only because of a cup of big favorites. I
12:01
Speaker 1: lost outright. And anytime you get a favorite to you know,
12:04
Speaker 1: not only not cover, but lose outright, it's it's always big.
12:07
Speaker 1: And of course the Patriot Texans game was was kind
12:10
Speaker 1: of the capper for us that really uh made us
12:13
Speaker 1: have a decent Sunday. But for teasers, yeah, that we
12:17
Speaker 1: talked about it a little bit on the Sunday Show
12:19
Speaker 1: when he's teasing a six point favorite down to either
12:22
Speaker 1: pick them or plus one, or uh teasing a nine
12:25
Speaker 1: point favorite down to minus two. Tough week for the
12:29
Speaker 1: guys that had did that. The Sunday Show being the
12:32
Speaker 1: Sunday Show You and I do from twelve to one
12:34
Speaker 1: on Radio dot Com, the Radio dot Com app, Denver
12:38
Speaker 1: another big number nine and a half point dogs against Houston.
12:42
Speaker 1: That's too much. You're giving way too much credit to
12:44
Speaker 1: the Houston Texans for beating the Pats the other night,
12:47
Speaker 1: which was the right side, and Denver not enough credit
12:51
Speaker 1: for winning the way they did with a rookie quarterback
12:55
Speaker 1: against a charter team. That. Oh boy, that's just sad.
13:01
Speaker 1: I've been talking about this Bronco team every week and
13:03
Speaker 1: how they have come up big for us game after game,
13:07
Speaker 1: and it's even the games that they don't win and
13:10
Speaker 1: they cover for us. I'm I actually agree with you
13:13
Speaker 1: on this one, and sometimes you need a little perspective
13:15
Speaker 1: looking at these games. I'm going down to nine right
13:17
Speaker 1: now as we speak, line chech now having said that,
13:23
Speaker 1: I haven't taken any money on the Broncos yet, so
13:26
Speaker 1: I mean this would be kind of a preemptive move.
13:28
Speaker 1: I've got no sharp money on this game whatsoever. I've
13:31
Speaker 1: got all public money on the Texans about six to
13:34
Speaker 1: one ratio. Let's tickets Texans to Broncos. But this is
13:38
Speaker 1: just you know, when you look at it a second
13:40
Speaker 1: time and more the more you're kind of thinking about
13:43
Speaker 1: the game, it just feels like it's too many points.
13:45
Speaker 1: Is there any chance at all that I am the
13:48
Speaker 1: reason you move that line right now? That what I
13:51
Speaker 1: said about Houston made you move the line. It made
13:56
Speaker 1: me think about moving the line, I'd like to think
14:00
Speaker 1: of myself. And then yeah, then once I looked at it,
14:03
Speaker 1: I'm like, yeah, you know, I I've been kind of
14:07
Speaker 1: riding his Broncos team, no pun intended. They're they're doing
14:14
Speaker 1: well for us, So yeah, I like I like them
14:16
Speaker 1: catching nine all right, all of a sudden, the once
14:19
Speaker 1: world beating Niners around the road and their three point
14:21
Speaker 1: dogs in New Orleans, and like, this was a team
14:24
Speaker 1: that to two or three weeks ago, they were like
14:27
Speaker 1: in the driver's seat for a buy and people were
14:29
Speaker 1: wondering if they're going to go undefeated, and now they're
14:31
Speaker 1: like the fifth seed in the NFC playoffs, playoffs, playoffs.
14:37
Speaker 1: This was a tough one. Honestly, this was a tough
14:40
Speaker 1: tough line to make because everything said to make the
14:43
Speaker 1: Saints three at home, one of the toughest, you know,
14:47
Speaker 1: home field advanced toughest places to play, especially the bigger
14:50
Speaker 1: the game, the louder than noise um, and the Niners,
14:56
Speaker 1: even in their losses, they looked really good. They're they're
14:58
Speaker 1: they're a great defense. Their offense is so innovative, the
15:02
Speaker 1: way they spread the field, and they they they're they're
15:05
Speaker 1: tough to figure out. I think the Saints are gonna
15:07
Speaker 1: have a real hard time uh stopping the Niners from scoring.
15:11
Speaker 1: Uh it's but we still have to make the Saints
15:15
Speaker 1: a three point favorite in this one. I didn't like it,
15:19
Speaker 1: and sure enough, I mean, we were buried on Niners.
15:22
Speaker 1: Niners money will probably end up going to two and
15:25
Speaker 1: a half. But I just think we I'd like to
15:31
Speaker 1: take this one back. I'd like to just open two
15:33
Speaker 1: and a half and but see if the sharp guys
15:35
Speaker 1: would have laid laid the three I mean laid the
15:37
Speaker 1: two and a half and gone to three. Um. But
15:40
Speaker 1: I just felt like they were going to play the
15:42
Speaker 1: Niners and they did, and I just I want to
15:44
Speaker 1: take this one back. Wow, you sound so sad, Yeah,
15:49
Speaker 1: because I you know, it's just like you know something's
15:51
Speaker 1: gonna happen, and you go against your better judgment and
15:54
Speaker 1: then you let it happen and then you kick yourself.
15:57
Speaker 1: But no, really, you sound like I'm so it's almost
16:00
Speaker 1: like it's kind of like you're talking about talking about
16:04
Speaker 1: the one that got away. That's how you sound here.
16:08
Speaker 1: Because I really want them to need the Niners in
16:10
Speaker 1: this one, and we're not going to be able to
16:12
Speaker 1: need the Niners. We're gonna we're gonna need the stage.
16:15
Speaker 1: But that's a great point, like talk about needing the Niners.
16:18
Speaker 1: Like you're a bookmaker. You're not just looking for even sides.
16:20
Speaker 1: You you have an opinion and you want the money
16:23
Speaker 1: to match that opinion. You want to be able to
16:24
Speaker 1: root for where you believe the money should go in
16:27
Speaker 1: certain games. You can't do it on every game. Nobody
16:30
Speaker 1: can have a real strong opinion on every game, but
16:32
Speaker 1: in certain big games where in a half a point
16:35
Speaker 1: can really make the difference. In this case, you know,
16:38
Speaker 1: the difference between two and a half and three is
16:40
Speaker 1: pretty big. At two and a half, probably get people
16:43
Speaker 1: laying the Saints, and at three they're taking the Niners.
16:45
Speaker 1: I just wish more people would have laid three on
16:49
Speaker 1: the Saints. All right, well, listen, I will take the
16:53
Speaker 1: Niners for you. Um, Cincinnati is visiting Cleveland. Boy, this
16:59
Speaker 1: turned into just a game with there was totally inconsequential,
17:04
Speaker 1: like who gives a fuck? Yeah? Is Cleveland team is
17:08
Speaker 1: so disappointing, like just really a train wreck of a team.
17:12
Speaker 1: You thought the middle of the season they were starting
17:15
Speaker 1: to right themselves. Great opportunity to go into Pittsburgh against
17:18
Speaker 1: a beat up team with a fourth string quarterback, and
17:21
Speaker 1: they crap the bed, Like wow, wow, do you just
17:26
Speaker 1: fire Freddie Kitchens right now and start over, like recognize
17:30
Speaker 1: the errors and not even wait till the end of
17:32
Speaker 1: the season. Get ahead, start on who's available. This is
17:34
Speaker 1: a nut. This is nuts. Yeah, this is a This
17:38
Speaker 1: is another one that kind of similar to Denver in Houston,
17:42
Speaker 1: where you're looking at it and say, it seems like
17:44
Speaker 1: it seems like a lot, especially with Cincinnati, Uh, coming
17:47
Speaker 1: off of their their their first win. Uh. Last week
17:52
Speaker 1: was such a good spot for Cincinnati. I know you
17:54
Speaker 1: and I talked about it all week. If they were
17:56
Speaker 1: going to get a win, that was the um that
17:59
Speaker 1: was the spot out for them playing at home against
18:02
Speaker 1: the Jets in this one. I'm not saying it's another
18:05
Speaker 1: game that they should win, but um, I mean, they
18:08
Speaker 1: certainly have some momentum coming into this game and to
18:11
Speaker 1: be getting so many points and you're just asking them
18:13
Speaker 1: to keep it competitive against against another team that's pretty
18:16
Speaker 1: much thrown in the towel this season. And Uh, I
18:20
Speaker 1: think if you're gonna favor aside, I would rather favor
18:24
Speaker 1: the plus nine with Cincinnati. I can't bet on the
18:27
Speaker 1: Bengals again. That's tough. Last week was the spot and
18:31
Speaker 1: you almost want to just take your winnings and say
18:33
Speaker 1: I finally cast on the Bengals and I'm done with
18:35
Speaker 1: them exactly. I just want to say ha, I got it.
18:37
Speaker 1: I'm done. Annie Dalton. You can't trick me, fool me once.
18:43
Speaker 1: Shame on me. Speaking of fools, we got a Pantheon
18:46
Speaker 1: Cup game, panthe and Cup alert. I feel like at
18:51
Speaker 1: this point in the podcast, here's what we need. We
18:53
Speaker 1: need to rip this Pat. Here's we're gonna do. We
18:57
Speaker 1: need al Pacino sound effect from the Pantheon Cup, you know,
19:02
Speaker 1: talking about the Pantheon Cup from any given Sunday. Just
19:05
Speaker 1: give us out right here, right now before we post
19:09
Speaker 1: this podcast, when we start talking about the Pantheon Cup,
19:13
Speaker 1: throwing just one rip of out Pacino talking about the
19:17
Speaker 1: importance of the Pantheon Cup on this team, we tear
19:20
Speaker 1: ourselves and everyone else around us to pieces for that
19:25
Speaker 1: inch because we know when we end up all those
19:34
Speaker 1: inches that's gonna make the fucking difference between when Asia
19:41
Speaker 1: he's giving me eyebrows. He's gonna try, He's gonna try it.
19:47
Speaker 1: If it doesn't work, Listen, we're leaving this part in
19:49
Speaker 1: so if it doesn't work, everyone knows it didn't work,
19:53
Speaker 1: and they can they can they can d m Pat
19:56
Speaker 1: on Twitter and say why can't you find that? Um?
20:00
Speaker 1: Carolina is a two and a half point Dog to Atlanta. Boy,
20:06
Speaker 1: this is a mess of a game. I guess you
20:08
Speaker 1: take Atlanta, you take the short home favorite, but really
20:11
Speaker 1: both teams are crap. Kyle Allen just become terrible. Yeah,
20:18
Speaker 1: but they kind of gave the Saints a run for
20:20
Speaker 1: their money. Uh, which a couple of weeks ago, I
20:23
Speaker 1: think that was an anomaly. Yeah, especially with the Saints
20:27
Speaker 1: knowing they had the short week and going to be
20:29
Speaker 1: playing the Falcons. Uh, you know a few days after that. Um,
20:34
Speaker 1: But the Falcons have not been playing all that bad.
20:37
Speaker 1: I mean, compared to the beginning of the season. They
20:38
Speaker 1: put up a couple of real good games. I know
20:41
Speaker 1: that you played the Saints twice in just a matter
20:43
Speaker 1: of a few weeks, you know, beating him pretty soundly
20:46
Speaker 1: the first time, um so at home, laying two and
20:50
Speaker 1: a half against the Panthers. Yeah, sharp guy has already
20:53
Speaker 1: played it. So I see this game going to three.
20:56
Speaker 1: Um probably probably by the end of the week. We
20:59
Speaker 1: just haven't can quite enough money to move it onto
21:02
Speaker 1: a key number like three. And I'm not really that
21:05
Speaker 1: convinced of the game that I want to just be
21:08
Speaker 1: that proactive on it. Detroit is visiting Minnesota that has
21:13
Speaker 1: an undecided quarterback. So the line, we don't really have
21:17
Speaker 1: anything to say here right now. It looks like you've
21:19
Speaker 1: got to post it thirteen and a half. But are
21:21
Speaker 1: you even taking bets on that game? Uh? Six bets
21:25
Speaker 1: so far. We just put the We just put it
21:28
Speaker 1: up and nobody's bet it yet. Um. Pretty. I mean
21:32
Speaker 1: it looks like we'll probably get some some decent action
21:34
Speaker 1: because the line is so big on the game and
21:37
Speaker 1: UH and the Viking still do draw quite a bit
21:40
Speaker 1: of public public money. So I expect that we're going
21:44
Speaker 1: to get some action on this game both sides. The
21:46
Speaker 1: sharp guys will take the big number eventually, and and
21:49
Speaker 1: the and the public will be UH on the Vikings.
21:53
Speaker 1: I actually I say this with all seriousness. I love
21:57
Speaker 1: the Dolphins Jets game. M of it. Oh my god,
22:02
Speaker 1: I feel like this this listen. I'd play for Brian Flores.
22:07
Speaker 1: This Dolphins team has passion and fire and the fact
22:10
Speaker 1: he's got these guys playing as hard as they do
22:12
Speaker 1: this late in the year. He's got creativity. He's taking
22:16
Speaker 1: chances like this team could have rolled over and you
22:19
Speaker 1: could see it progressively throughout the year. We've talked about
22:22
Speaker 1: in the podcast they just continue to play harder and
22:24
Speaker 1: harder every week and got closer and closer. Now they
22:26
Speaker 1: got a couple of wins under their belt, so like
22:30
Speaker 1: they're going on the road to the Jets, who everyone thought,
22:35
Speaker 1: oh wait, maybe this team is good and then they don't.
22:39
Speaker 1: So why did you make him a six point favorite?
22:43
Speaker 1: Trying to trying to judge where most of the public
22:47
Speaker 1: will be on this game. And I think even with
22:49
Speaker 1: Miami playing as competitive as they have been, we still
22:53
Speaker 1: get quite a bit of the Jets money. I mean
22:56
Speaker 1: last week, I mean we were on the right side
22:57
Speaker 1: of it, but the Jets Bengals game was one of
23:00
Speaker 1: one of our biggest decisions. The public still likes this
23:03
Speaker 1: Jets team, so uh and it's funny to hear you
23:07
Speaker 1: talking about Miami being so competitive, and like at the
23:11
Speaker 1: beginning of the season, after about three or four weeks,
23:14
Speaker 1: we were wondering if this team could beat Alabama in
23:17
Speaker 1: college and now here we are saying they're you know,
23:20
Speaker 1: they're getting way too many points. You know, we we
23:23
Speaker 1: actually posted, I want to say, after two or three
23:25
Speaker 1: weeks into the season, we posted a prop on who
23:29
Speaker 1: will have more Patriots losses or the Dolphins wins and everybody,
23:36
Speaker 1: and it was pretty much a pick on there as
23:38
Speaker 1: to whether there'd be more Dolphins wins than Patriots losses.
23:41
Speaker 1: And everyone at the time was saying the one is
23:44
Speaker 1: going to be the number, like the Dolphins might get
23:46
Speaker 1: one win and the Patriots might lose one game. But
23:49
Speaker 1: now we're talking about possibly three being the number, or
23:53
Speaker 1: even four. I mean, the Patriots might get three or
23:55
Speaker 1: four losses by the end of the season. My how
23:59
Speaker 1: times change, Bob Scucci in the NFL, and we can
24:01
Speaker 1: stop having preposterous conversations about can Alabama beat anybody? They
24:07
Speaker 1: can't even beat Auburn? Yeah, exactly, Flailing Indianapolis on the
24:13
Speaker 1: road against Resurgeon, Tampa Bay Buccaneers. My pick for next
24:18
Speaker 1: year's version of the Cleveland Browns where everyone starts talking
24:21
Speaker 1: about how amazing they are. I'm not buying it, but
24:25
Speaker 1: I will buy Jameis Winston as a three point home favorite. Yeah.
24:30
Speaker 1: You know, when he when he's on his game, he's
24:33
Speaker 1: he's really good. The problem is is he still makes
24:37
Speaker 1: some of those decisions that a young quarterback that when
24:40
Speaker 1: he when he has a bad game, he's liable to
24:42
Speaker 1: throw three or four picks and Uh, make some bad decisions,
24:46
Speaker 1: but you know when he and lately, you know this
24:49
Speaker 1: team in their losses, they're competitive and then they're able
24:53
Speaker 1: to put some some teams away pretty good. I think
24:56
Speaker 1: three is the right number on this one. We look
24:59
Speaker 1: pretty solid and I don't I don't see this line
25:01
Speaker 1: changing much. Um, We've we got pretty good two way
25:05
Speaker 1: action at three. I think the Sharp guys, if they
25:08
Speaker 1: weigh in on this one, it'll probably be on the
25:10
Speaker 1: Buccaneers only because you know, we're kind of looking at
25:14
Speaker 1: the Sharp guys patterns to of late. And they've been
25:16
Speaker 1: on Tennessee every week, and they've been on Tampa Bay,
25:20
Speaker 1: and they've been against the Jaguars, but three weeks in
25:23
Speaker 1: a row and they cashed all of them. Last week. Uh,
25:26
Speaker 1: they were with the Titans, they were on the Buccaneers. Uh,
25:30
Speaker 1: they're against the Jaguars. So I expect that trend to continue.
25:34
Speaker 1: They haven't come in on it yet, but they will.
25:37
Speaker 1: I am all in on Gardner Minshew as a three
25:40
Speaker 1: point dog at home against the Chargers. Tell me why
25:43
Speaker 1: you make it like this. What have the Chargers proven
25:45
Speaker 1: to you that they think that they should be a
25:46
Speaker 1: three point road favorite against anybody, Well, this one, I
25:51
Speaker 1: just threw away what I thought the public would do
25:53
Speaker 1: because I don't picture the public weighing in on this game,
25:55
Speaker 1: so it's not a big recreational better game. I just
25:59
Speaker 1: tried to picture where the Sharp guys we're gonna bet
26:02
Speaker 1: on this one, and because they've been against the Jaguars
26:05
Speaker 1: every week, we just tried to make the Chargers, Um, uh,
26:10
Speaker 1: you know, as as attractive as possible, I mean as
26:14
Speaker 1: at least attractive as possible for because we know that
26:17
Speaker 1: they're gonna be betting against the Chargers. So, uh, they're
26:21
Speaker 1: betting against the Jaguars. I'm sorry, um, and they did.
26:25
Speaker 1: They did come in and uh they already laid the
26:28
Speaker 1: minus three that we're probably gonna end up going to
26:30
Speaker 1: three and a half on this one, even though it
26:33
Speaker 1: seems like the Jaguars at home should be a little
26:36
Speaker 1: bit more competitive in this one. But the Sharp guys
26:39
Speaker 1: are just on their there against the Jaguars every week,
26:42
Speaker 1: and they're they're on the Chargers in this one. Good.
26:46
Speaker 1: So now we can talk about By the way, that's
26:48
Speaker 1: fascinating the way you thought about that, that you're not
26:50
Speaker 1: even thinking about the public in this game, because they're
26:52
Speaker 1: going to ignore it, so it's only going to be
26:54
Speaker 1: about what the wise guys are doing. This wise guy
26:57
Speaker 1: is betting the Jacks plus three. Kansas City is on
27:01
Speaker 1: the road, also a three point underdog, only this time
27:06
Speaker 1: to the New England Patriots. And I believe, my friend,
27:10
Speaker 1: you're going to get some wise guy money in the
27:12
Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs. Absolutely. This one is just like a
27:16
Speaker 1: mirror image of the Forts Saints game. You know too,
27:20
Speaker 1: great teams, uh, separated only by the home field advantage.
27:25
Speaker 1: That's the difference of the three points. The way that
27:28
Speaker 1: they're betting the Niners in the Saints game, that's the
27:31
Speaker 1: way they're betting the Chiefs in this game. Um. You know, look,
27:35
Speaker 1: you look at the Patriots, even though they only have
27:37
Speaker 1: the two losses. You know, they beat up on on
27:40
Speaker 1: the Jets, they beat up on the Dolphins, they played
27:44
Speaker 1: the Redskins, they've played the Giants. The only good teams
27:49
Speaker 1: they've played they struggled with. They struggled with the Bills.
27:52
Speaker 1: They lost to the Texans, they lost by seventeen to
27:57
Speaker 1: the Ravens. This is as much as I keep saying,
28:00
Speaker 1: you don't make a living betting against the Patriots. This
28:03
Speaker 1: is the first time where they actually look vulnerable. And
28:06
Speaker 1: if you're looking vulnerable going against a team that's uh,
28:10
Speaker 1: you know, headed up by by Mahomes and and how
28:14
Speaker 1: how good he looks. This is a tough spot for
28:17
Speaker 1: the Patriots. I am so upset. I'm so upset. Like you,
28:21
Speaker 1: you and I both know, like betting is all about
28:23
Speaker 1: timing the peaks and valleys. I knew the Patriots were
28:26
Speaker 1: the wrong side last week, and in project to six
28:30
Speaker 1: we took him. I'm gonna blame Matt. I'm gonna blame
28:33
Speaker 1: Matt for Marian because he wanted them and I had
28:36
Speaker 1: made my choices on the other team, so I had
28:38
Speaker 1: to go with him. And I knew it was the
28:39
Speaker 1: wrong side and there's nothing I can do about it.
28:42
Speaker 1: It makes me sick. Yeah, And that was the worst
28:46
Speaker 1: time that the Patriots have looked to me in probably years.
28:51
Speaker 1: But that's also when like people start betting against him
28:55
Speaker 1: and then they come back and dominate. They always burned you, right,
29:00
Speaker 1: It's like they're they're an enigma, They're a riddle. Yeah.
29:03
Speaker 1: I don't buy Pittsburgh on the road as a two
29:05
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite against the Cardinals. I think
29:08
Speaker 1: you're making a mistake there. I think that's all public
29:11
Speaker 1: reaction going both ways, the Cardinal's massive loss and the
29:13
Speaker 1: Steelers a surprising win. We took a few thousand on
29:18
Speaker 1: the Steels, we haven't taken any big money on the Cardinals.
29:20
Speaker 1: At plus two and a half, people are stupid. That's
29:23
Speaker 1: why it's it's the public is on the Steelers about
29:29
Speaker 1: three and a half to one ratio. But it's the
29:31
Speaker 1: big bets, the thousand dollar bets, two thousand dollar bets,
29:34
Speaker 1: not not any one big single bet, but just a
29:38
Speaker 1: lot of small bets and two thousand dollar bets that
29:43
Speaker 1: are making this add up a little bit. So I'm
29:46
Speaker 1: reluctant to go to three for that reason because at
29:48
Speaker 1: three suddenly the value becomes on the Cardinals. But I'll
29:52
Speaker 1: just let him lay the Steelers a little bit more
29:54
Speaker 1: in this one. This might not be one that I
29:56
Speaker 1: don't mind needing the Cardinals. Well, Cardinals is gonna get
30:01
Speaker 1: my money? Uh, all right? Tennessee Oakland, Tennessee three point God,
30:07
Speaker 1: so many road favorites. Am I just supposed to like
30:11
Speaker 1: anti up on every single like home dog this week?
30:16
Speaker 1: Look at this all the way down the line. Yeah,
30:19
Speaker 1: there's a lot of them just at every home team,
30:23
Speaker 1: big home favorites, and the and the and the and
30:26
Speaker 1: the just at every home team. Like what am I
30:29
Speaker 1: doing here? Yeah, it looks like it looks like this
30:34
Speaker 1: one is a little tougher. This one. We tried to
30:36
Speaker 1: We tried to shave the Titans about as high as
30:39
Speaker 1: we could. We thought that three, you know, three on
30:42
Speaker 1: the road would be enough for the sharp guys to
30:45
Speaker 1: take the Raiders. But it but it hasn't been. And
30:48
Speaker 1: like I said, we were paying attention to that trend
30:51
Speaker 1: that the sharp guys have cash tickets on the Titans,
30:54
Speaker 1: like two or three weeks in a row, if cash
30:56
Speaker 1: tickets on the Buccaneers and they're betting against the Jaguars,
31:00
Speaker 1: those three teams that they've really focused on, which means
31:03
Speaker 1: our numbers are soft on those teams. And when when
31:06
Speaker 1: we recognize that we're getting beat up on those same teams,
31:10
Speaker 1: we have to kind of shade it a little more
31:13
Speaker 1: in that direction, which we thought we did. Apparently not enough.
31:17
Speaker 1: And utter of fact, I'm going to go to three
31:19
Speaker 1: flat on this when we were at three even money
31:21
Speaker 1: and I'm gonna go to three flat and see if
31:23
Speaker 1: I could draw a little bit of some rate of money.
31:27
Speaker 1: Linech is it done, It's done. I see it, I
31:36
Speaker 1: see it. You do it there, I see it here.
31:38
Speaker 1: It's like broadcast news. He says it there, he says
31:42
Speaker 1: it there. Seattle on the road one and a half
31:44
Speaker 1: way favorite against the Rams. It's like you want to
31:47
Speaker 1: bet against the Seahawks every week. Every week you feel
31:50
Speaker 1: like they're they're like not a team that is worthy
31:53
Speaker 1: of being a favorite. I lost. I lost on the
31:55
Speaker 1: Vikings last night, Minnesota Vikings, And like it's so treating
32:02
Speaker 1: it is. This is a team that you would not
32:05
Speaker 1: you know, if you didn't already know their record, you'd
32:07
Speaker 1: be surprised that somebody told you that. You know, they
32:09
Speaker 1: were eleven and two, ten and two, whatever they are. Uh,
32:13
Speaker 1: it's uh, they seem to be they seem to be winning,
32:16
Speaker 1: even though not dominating. Um, this seems like a perfect
32:21
Speaker 1: spot for the Rams. I mean, that's just kind of
32:23
Speaker 1: a professional handicapper talking. But this is the reason why
32:29
Speaker 1: we're not making Seattle at least a field goal favorite
32:33
Speaker 1: on the road here, Uh is because a divisional game
32:37
Speaker 1: like this, even as bad as the Rams are playing,
32:39
Speaker 1: they're still in the hunt. There at seven and five,
32:42
Speaker 1: They're they're still fighting for for the playoff spot and
32:46
Speaker 1: at home in a In a game like this, um,
32:49
Speaker 1: I expect the Rams to come up big. So I'm
32:51
Speaker 1: kind of inviting a little Seattle money that there. You know,
32:55
Speaker 1: you're I'm hoping the casual fan will come in and
32:58
Speaker 1: see Seattle only. Minus wanted to appen to look attractives
33:01
Speaker 1: and let them met it. And I'm gonna hope to
33:04
Speaker 1: need the Rams in this one. You are such a tease. Hey,
33:10
Speaker 1: you know who sucks the Giants? Daniel Jones. Oh he's terrible. Yeah,
33:21
Speaker 1: Like every game he's becoming one of those guys where
33:24
Speaker 1: you can just count on him throwing it to the
33:26
Speaker 1: other team when no one is around. Yeah, boy, had
33:31
Speaker 1: the mighty have fallen? He was everybody darling for two
33:36
Speaker 1: or three weeks and then uh, and then he just
33:38
Speaker 1: came crashing back down. Tell me how you got to
33:40
Speaker 1: eight and a half? Well just um, I mean, Philly's
33:46
Speaker 1: getting healthy, but we're just we're trying to anticipate bets
33:49
Speaker 1: against the Giants more so than than on Silly in
33:53
Speaker 1: this one. So we're just trying to make it as
33:56
Speaker 1: high as well as we could you know kind of
33:58
Speaker 1: looking at the Packard game is kind of kind of
34:01
Speaker 1: an indication of what we made the Packers versus the
34:04
Speaker 1: Giants and the fact that they laid that price so
34:08
Speaker 1: and cash. So we're gonna we're gonna make that line
34:10
Speaker 1: pretty similar um with the Philly team. So at at
34:15
Speaker 1: eight and a half, I think we got the number
34:17
Speaker 1: right because it looks like nobody knows what to do
34:19
Speaker 1: with it. We're not heavy on one side or the
34:21
Speaker 1: other yet. The fact that it's Monday night game though
34:25
Speaker 1: I would expect some money to come on the Eagles.
34:30
Speaker 1: Can I ignore that game? If I did have to
34:31
Speaker 1: bet every game, I would not even look at this game.
34:35
Speaker 1: I need to find a derivative bet for this game.
34:37
Speaker 1: I can't bet the side in this game. I need
34:39
Speaker 1: to find something new for this a player prop or something.
34:44
Speaker 1: What did Danny Jones? What? What are Danny Jones? Uh
34:48
Speaker 1: interception total is going to be in this game? Do
34:50
Speaker 1: you think what are you gonna set that at? Well,
34:54
Speaker 1: typically we we set them over under one and a half,
34:56
Speaker 1: and I mean we might have to just make it
34:59
Speaker 1: one and a half over dollar sixty. I would still
35:02
Speaker 1: take the over on that. It would you lay dollar sixty. Yeah,
35:06
Speaker 1: I would. Okay, put me down for two, scooch. Guess
35:14
Speaker 1: what time it is time to play some scoocher. Last week, Scooch,
35:27
Speaker 1: I had the Minnesota Vikings and you had the San
35:31
Speaker 1: Francisco forty Niners. One of us won, one of us
35:35
Speaker 1: lost in an excruciatingly frustrating way. One of those people
35:39
Speaker 1: should get to go first this week. Normally you'd say, hey,
35:43
Speaker 1: let the winner go first, that's the prize for winning.
35:45
Speaker 1: But I think the person who lost in an excruciatingly
35:48
Speaker 1: frustrating way should go first because they're sad and they
35:52
Speaker 1: could use some consoling. Okay, okay, I'll buy that. M
35:58
Speaker 1: all right, then I am going with the Denver Broncos. Bang.
36:02
Speaker 1: Suck it, Sucker. I didn't. I didn't see that one coming.
36:07
Speaker 1: He didn't. This is a no no. I thought we
36:11
Speaker 1: would go with some of the short home favorites, or
36:14
Speaker 1: I could have done that, but I decided I felt
36:16
Speaker 1: like you were so sad about that line that I
36:19
Speaker 1: felt like that's where the biggest opportunity might be. Yeah,
36:25
Speaker 1: this is I don't love anything. I mean I I
36:29
Speaker 1: favored the forty Niners against the Saints. Favored the Chiefs
36:33
Speaker 1: against the Patriots. But I think as far as the
36:37
Speaker 1: play that I feel really strongly about that nobody cares
36:40
Speaker 1: about it. Probably the Falcons against the Panthers minus two
36:44
Speaker 1: and a half. Wow, talk about a game that wasn't
36:48
Speaker 1: even on my radar because I don't want to look
36:50
Speaker 1: at it because it makes my stomach hurt. Yep, Yeah,
36:57
Speaker 1: that is something. Yeah, all right, we got our picks in.
37:02
Speaker 1: I'm going with the Denver Broncos plus nine. You're going
37:05
Speaker 1: with the Atlanta Falcons minus two and a half. Scooch.
37:08
Speaker 1: Everybody can catch us on Sunday twelve to one Eastern
37:14
Speaker 1: on Radio dot Com, Radio dot Com app Rock and
37:17
Speaker 1: roll Brother, I'll talk to you Sunday. That was good.
37:22
Speaker 1: It's that part of the show where we welcome in
37:25
Speaker 1: Darren Ravel in a few minutes, professional better Simon Hunter,
37:29
Speaker 1: and we're gonna try to negotiate and debate our way
37:31
Speaker 1: to five picks for the west Gate Las Vegas Super
37:34
Speaker 1: Contest so we can win one point five million dollars.
37:38
Speaker 1: Not a good week for us, darn Ravel. We went
37:40
Speaker 1: two and three. Well, I got talked off the Cardinals,
37:44
Speaker 1: which is a good move. But I couldn't convince you
37:47
Speaker 1: to take Miami, and I felt really good about them.
37:51
Speaker 1: I want real money on the money line, and uh,
37:56
Speaker 1: you know, so I'm gonna try again this week, actually
37:58
Speaker 1: for the fourth straight week or so, you're gonna go
38:01
Speaker 1: with Miami again? Yeah? Five and a half plus five
38:05
Speaker 1: and a half? What are your what are your theories here?
38:10
Speaker 1: That they're actually a good team now good and that
38:16
Speaker 1: good team, or they're a serviceable team and that uh,
38:20
Speaker 1: they're the only team in the NFL that the oddsmakers
38:24
Speaker 1: haven't haven't gotten around too understanding because there were two
38:31
Speaker 1: different teams horrific and then better and I think I
38:37
Speaker 1: think they they might even win out right again, Wow,
38:43
Speaker 1: all right, you know what, I don't hate it, but
38:45
Speaker 1: we have that, all right? Who's next to that? I'll
38:48
Speaker 1: start there? Then, uh five and a half Miami, um
38:54
Speaker 1: against the Jets. The Jets are not a good team either,
38:57
Speaker 1: by the way, you agree with that co sign you
39:01
Speaker 1: agree with that? Yeah, totally okay? All right? Um, then
39:06
Speaker 1: I like another underdog. I like Cincinnati plus nine, um my,
39:14
Speaker 1: thinking they're you know, obviously they had their their first
39:18
Speaker 1: good week. There's some momentum. I am okay with Andy Dalton.
39:24
Speaker 1: The Browns are on a downward trajectory and they have
39:30
Speaker 1: very emotional people on their team if you know that, Baker, Baker,
39:36
Speaker 1: and O'Dell to name a few. So I like Cincinnati
39:40
Speaker 1: plus nine against the Browns. Uh. My next pick, I
39:46
Speaker 1: am gonna go with the Baltimore Ravens. Yes, obviously, maybe
39:51
Speaker 1: Lamar is overvalued, um, but I think the Bills are
39:56
Speaker 1: still a little bit overvalued. So I want to take
39:59
Speaker 1: Baltimo more minus five and a half. And I actually
40:04
Speaker 1: do think New England is not really that good, and
40:10
Speaker 1: I think now is the time to fade them. So
40:12
Speaker 1: I want Kansas City plus three there um. And I
40:18
Speaker 1: was impressed with the Seahawks. Um, they're they're running game,
40:25
Speaker 1: the passing game wasn't bad. Um, And I'm I'll take
40:30
Speaker 1: them as one point favorites over the Ramps. So those
40:33
Speaker 1: are my five Cincinnati plus nine, Miami plus five and
40:36
Speaker 1: a half, Baltimore minus five and a half, Kansas City
40:40
Speaker 1: plus three, and Seahawks minus one. I don't hate these well,
40:45
Speaker 1: I figured I had to go strong. Uh, and the
40:48
Speaker 1: ones that I really feel like forget about Miami. Like
40:52
Speaker 1: the ones that I really feel good about, I like
40:54
Speaker 1: Cincinnati plus nine. That's a tremendous amount of points. And
40:58
Speaker 1: I do think I I really do think that Baltimore.
41:04
Speaker 1: So those are my top two, Baltimore over the Bills
41:07
Speaker 1: five and a half. All right, you know what I
41:09
Speaker 1: want to do from there? If I were to rank them,
41:10
Speaker 1: I would say I would say Miami plus five and
41:13
Speaker 1: a half, Kansas Kansas City plus three, and then the Seahawks.
41:16
Speaker 1: All right, let's bring in Simon before I even give mine.
41:20
Speaker 1: Let's bring in Simon. And now a word from a
41:27
Speaker 1: wise guy with Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon, what's going on? Boys?
41:37
Speaker 1: Do you ever see the Saturday at Live skit with
41:39
Speaker 1: Mike Myers could do drawings? Do? I'm Simon? I'd like
41:43
Speaker 1: to draw I like drawings. Uh yeah, not since I
41:50
Speaker 1: was a little kid. Any adult that anytime they hear
41:52
Speaker 1: my name was Simon to goers go hello, my name Simon,
41:57
Speaker 1: and I'd like do do drawings? Alright? So it wasn't original,
42:01
Speaker 1: is what you're saying. Do you know what is original?
42:04
Speaker 1: This podcast? And having you on to help guide us
42:08
Speaker 1: through the Westgate Las Vegas Super Contest, which you have
42:11
Speaker 1: done with skill up until the past two weeks. What
42:15
Speaker 1: the fund is going on. Hey man, I'm out here
42:20
Speaker 1: trying to help you guys dodgy land mines, but I've
42:23
Speaker 1: fallen into a couple of land mines myself the last
42:25
Speaker 1: couple of weeks. But it is rough out there. It's
42:29
Speaker 1: long as he's not making big money on the side,
42:31
Speaker 1: I'm okay. Yeah, as long as I'm helping Darren goes
42:35
Speaker 1: seven and one in these late weeks, I'm pretty proud
42:37
Speaker 1: of myself. Um, but it's one of these things that
42:41
Speaker 1: we get later in here. We have a bunch of
42:42
Speaker 1: teams we just hate because of the way they've screwed
42:45
Speaker 1: us over the year, over the season, So it's kind
42:48
Speaker 1: of funny these last couple of weeks and the super Contest.
42:50
Speaker 1: It's like you kind of have to throw out these
42:52
Speaker 1: earlier weeks and really focused on the last couple of
42:54
Speaker 1: weeks because these teams really are what they are at
42:57
Speaker 1: this point in the season. Yeah, I think that's true. Uh,
43:00
Speaker 1: speaking of they are what they are, let me give
43:02
Speaker 1: you Darren's picks. I want you to weigh in, and
43:05
Speaker 1: if I agree with you guys, we're gonna go with it.
43:08
Speaker 1: If not, I've got some backups. Miami plus five and
43:12
Speaker 1: a half against the Jets. It, baby, I love it,
43:16
Speaker 1: and we did. I'm pretty sure we did have the
43:18
Speaker 1: Dolphins in our super concious last week we dropped the Cowboys. Um,
43:25
Speaker 1: I love the Dolphins this week. It's one of those
43:27
Speaker 1: that it's a it's a funny spot where I like
43:33
Speaker 1: the early value. Now it's kind of it's at five
43:35
Speaker 1: and a half five, um, so the public and the
43:37
Speaker 1: sharps are pounding it, but we're it's a weird spot
43:40
Speaker 1: where we're gonna be back in. The Dolphins off a
43:43
Speaker 1: great win against the Jets too, had one of the
43:46
Speaker 1: worst loss of the season. So I like it, um,
43:50
Speaker 1: but we can keep rolling three shoot off. Look, it's
43:53
Speaker 1: not a great like in theory, it's not a great spot,
43:56
Speaker 1: right because no, you usually aren't gonna win these loss
43:59
Speaker 1: which is like one of those is where like we're
44:00
Speaker 1: buying we're actually buying hot, buying low on the right
44:03
Speaker 1: now exactly. That's that's what's going on. Um since e
44:07
Speaker 1: plus nine. I love it. I mean it really it
44:12
Speaker 1: feels like that team did get a spark from Andy
44:14
Speaker 1: Dalton and the Browns are just fired. I mean they
44:19
Speaker 1: are that. I know we joked about earlier season, the
44:22
Speaker 1: way Baker was looking. But that picture of him the
44:25
Speaker 1: other day with his belly sticking out, I mean, he
44:28
Speaker 1: just looks like a guy that's forty years old. He's defeated.
44:32
Speaker 1: So I'm good. I'm good. Here are going to Bengal, Darren?
44:34
Speaker 1: Are you in the office right now? I am Why
44:37
Speaker 1: don't you go? Can you go on mute? While Simon
44:39
Speaker 1: is talking because I hear thee um. I agree with you.
44:44
Speaker 1: Here's my fear about uh, since how where do you
44:49
Speaker 1: how do you have this game power rated in? Actually
44:52
Speaker 1: we're actually not getting beal. I got it at minus ten,
44:54
Speaker 1: so that that's it's down to down to plus eight
44:57
Speaker 1: and a half. It's gonna keep going down, probably because
44:59
Speaker 1: I think we're gonna keep taking it. So I still think.
45:02
Speaker 1: I still think there's value there. Like my my numbers
45:05
Speaker 1: can't take an account like humans. These guys, these are different,
45:09
Speaker 1: these teams are completely different feelings right now. Yeah, but
45:13
Speaker 1: like if the game, if the number opens at ten
45:16
Speaker 1: and by the time the super contest lines come out,
45:18
Speaker 1: it's at seven, I'm not dying to take the Bengals
45:21
Speaker 1: at plus seven. Now, yeah, I wouldn't take that. I
45:25
Speaker 1: wanted to keep it above eight honestly, all right, so
45:27
Speaker 1: we'll see. If it says above eight, we'll think about it. Um.
45:31
Speaker 1: Let me make a note here, all right. Next on
45:33
Speaker 1: the list is, uh, who is that Baltimore? Baltimore minus
45:40
Speaker 1: five and a half. I don't like it. I'll be
45:44
Speaker 1: honest and I don't like it. Yeah. I mean my
45:46
Speaker 1: thinking here is that they just played same Frank who
45:49
Speaker 1: literally that if you watched that game, they beat their
45:51
Speaker 1: ship out of each other for that entire game. It
45:54
Speaker 1: was probably the hardest sitting games I've seen all year.
45:57
Speaker 1: And the Bills kind of had their way with Cowboy
46:00
Speaker 1: is they had extended rest. Now they're at home and
46:03
Speaker 1: the Ravens are growing up there. So once again we're
46:04
Speaker 1: getting no no good value. Like I have this game
46:08
Speaker 1: at Ravens minus two and a half. So all the
46:10
Speaker 1: value right now is by far on the Bills. I think,
46:13
Speaker 1: I agree. So what are we gonna do there? I mean,
46:20
Speaker 1: Dann Dan has been on a heater. If Dan, you're
46:22
Speaker 1: feeling that great about the Ravens, we can put it in.
46:26
Speaker 1: But I'm just letting you know the numbers are saying
46:28
Speaker 1: this is this is not a smart spot on this podcast,
46:32
Speaker 1: say what, I'll wait, Let's wait, let's wait, let's wait. Uh,
46:38
Speaker 1: Kansas City plus three against New England. Look, I mean
46:43
Speaker 1: that's it's I have this game at a pick um.
46:46
Speaker 1: I think this is one of those where they're putting
46:48
Speaker 1: this line. They put it up higher because they always
46:51
Speaker 1: they just want to make sure when the public is
46:53
Speaker 1: gonna come in, they're not gonna come in. So have
46:54
Speaker 1: you on the Patriots and the Chiefs. Honestly, Patrick Holmes
46:59
Speaker 1: hasn't that great since he's been back. He's made some
47:03
Speaker 1: like last year, you're just making these incredible places. He's
47:05
Speaker 1: still doing that, but he's making a little bit bad
47:08
Speaker 1: decisions because he's so confident himself. So he got lucky
47:11
Speaker 1: and a couple of couple of plays in that opening game.
47:14
Speaker 1: But I do I mean, we're a getting three points.
47:16
Speaker 1: You've got to take the Chiefs here? Uh the l
47:20
Speaker 1: A Rams minus water Seattle minus one against the Rams.
47:24
Speaker 1: Darren and I are on opposite sides of this with
47:26
Speaker 1: different attention. Yeah, I mean I would like to hear
47:29
Speaker 1: why you like it, Dan, because I mean they played
47:32
Speaker 1: just a couple of weeks ago and the only reason
47:34
Speaker 1: the Seahawks beat him at home was because the Rams
47:36
Speaker 1: picker and Mr the field goal. So now you're not
47:39
Speaker 1: you're you're telling me that the Seahawks if they were
47:42
Speaker 1: at home playing the Rams right now, they're saying the
47:43
Speaker 1: flying would be minus four or five. So I think
47:46
Speaker 1: it's kind of a weird spot where the Rams is
47:48
Speaker 1: where all the value is going to be in this game?
47:52
Speaker 1: All right, I'll go on that side. What are we
47:54
Speaker 1: gonna do with the last pick? Then? So right now
47:57
Speaker 1: we have Kansas City plus three, we have l a
48:01
Speaker 1: Um plus one plus one since as long as it
48:04
Speaker 1: stays above eight, are we sticking with Miami? I would
48:10
Speaker 1: like to all right, we'll stick with Miami. Yeah, we
48:13
Speaker 1: can stick with Man. They've been good to us when
48:15
Speaker 1: Starns like them. They've worked out first for the most part.
48:19
Speaker 1: How do we feel about the Jacksonville Jaguars plus three?
48:23
Speaker 1: I hate the Jaguars. I don't even know who they Yeah,
48:26
Speaker 1: I can't do it like that was that was unreal
48:29
Speaker 1: that game last week watching that the Bucks, the Buck's
48:32
Speaker 1: thoroughly dominate. This is this is a good spot to
48:34
Speaker 1: take them to the Chargers. Just hate to win, but
48:37
Speaker 1: I can't have this sweat. I cannot have. I don't
48:39
Speaker 1: want to tug with Jaguars again. I have no idea
48:42
Speaker 1: who they are. How do we feel about the San
48:45
Speaker 1: Francisco forty Niners plus three? I don't hate it. I
48:52
Speaker 1: mean Drew Brees is an old man. I mean this,
48:55
Speaker 1: this defense is fast. But I'm seeing that Sherman might
48:58
Speaker 1: be out. And if you if you follow any of
49:00
Speaker 1: these numbers on lone, Sherman's been huge for them this year.
49:04
Speaker 1: What their defense does, He's actually gonna shut down corner. Surprisingly,
49:08
Speaker 1: so I actually wouldn't take San Frame here because they're
49:10
Speaker 1: not gonna want to put on Michael Thomas. All right, well,
49:13
Speaker 1: wise guy, who do you got? Like? Right now? We
49:16
Speaker 1: got Jacksonville, the Rams, Miami and since Jacksonville, I'm sorry,
49:23
Speaker 1: we got who do we have? Kansas City? Uh? The
49:29
Speaker 1: Rams Miami? And since who else we got? I mean, Darren,
49:32
Speaker 1: you don't have you don't have any chalk you really
49:33
Speaker 1: like this week? Like my child, you're that's actually a good,
49:39
Speaker 1: good suggestion. I mean the chalk, I guess would be
49:46
Speaker 1: the chalk would put with the chalk I'm scared of
49:53
Speaker 1: I'm scared of all the favorites. I mean Tampa Bay
49:56
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay minus three would be the and that's and
50:01
Speaker 1: that's one of those I was looking at too, and
50:02
Speaker 1: I was sopp you're gonna say it, because I feel
50:04
Speaker 1: like the Colts without t Y and Marlon Mack, they
50:07
Speaker 1: just can't keep up with any of these teams. And
50:10
Speaker 1: the Bucks, sure they can turn over, but any any
50:13
Speaker 1: time they can score. So I do think it's a
50:15
Speaker 1: good spot for the Bucks. But once again, we're buying.
50:18
Speaker 1: We're buying hid in the book, we are buying very high.
50:23
Speaker 1: Like I do think there's a little bit of a guys.
50:26
Speaker 1: You guys like the Steelers. I actually like Arizona in
50:33
Speaker 1: that side more than the steel Like I wrote down
50:35
Speaker 1: Arizona plus three. You don't like that, Simon. Uh, we
50:41
Speaker 1: could say it what my I do, Like, I know,
50:43
Speaker 1: I do like Arizona, but um, because it's one of
50:46
Speaker 1: those that Hodges. He's a rookie quarterback too, So I
50:50
Speaker 1: mean people are taking a rookie quarterback favorite on the road.
50:54
Speaker 1: It's kind of take Arizona there. I'll take Arizona. I'll
50:57
Speaker 1: take I'll do Arizona Zone. Uh, it's the end of
51:01
Speaker 1: the year. We keep betting bad teams. We only have
51:05
Speaker 1: one team with a winning record in our five. Most
51:10
Speaker 1: teams have fewer than three wins. That's how you bet.
51:15
Speaker 1: You bet bad teams. You're a line. I'm happy for
51:21
Speaker 1: the first week, For the first week on this podcast,
51:24
Speaker 1: I'm happy. I feel like I'm contributing Kansas City plus three,
51:29
Speaker 1: the l A Rams plus one and a half, Miami
51:32
Speaker 1: plus five and a half. Since as long as we
51:34
Speaker 1: get him a plus above plus eight, uh Arizona plus
51:38
Speaker 1: two and a half, those are five boys. Alrighty Simon
51:47
Speaker 1: Hunter professional better, Dan Ravel professional almost You're you're making
51:52
Speaker 1: some short place here. I wouldn't say a professional, but
51:54
Speaker 1: you're a professional contributor right now, and that's all that matters.
52:00
Speaker 1: All right, Thank you boys. All right. This has been
52:04
Speaker 1: the Favorites from the Action Network. Download from Apple Podcast,
52:08
Speaker 1: download from radio dot Com, search for the Favorites, or
52:12
Speaker 1: wherever you get your podcasts. Until next week. I love you.