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Navigating Market Uncertainty: A Guide For Investors · The Wealth Cafe

• 0:15
  SPEAKER_00: Welcome back to the Wealth Cafe.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_00: I'm Caroline Tannis, lead financial advisor and founder of Tannis Financial Group, and I am so excited to kick off another episode.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: And today I want to start with something that I hear regularly and that I have heard more than usual this year.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_00: And that is, Caroline, I know that I'm supposed to stay the course, and I know that I'm not supposed to react to the market, but we have headlines that are relentless.
• 0:42
  SPEAKER_00: My portfolio is moving, and I cannot tell if what I'm feeling is rational in regards to concern or just anxiety that I need to push through and stay strong.
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_00: This is one of the most honest things that a client can say to me.
• 0:56
  SPEAKER_00: And I want to honor it today and give some space to talk about it because I think the financial industry does women a disservice when it dismisses the fact that as women, we feel so much pressure when it comes to long-term investing.
• 1:09
  SPEAKER_00: Your concern about market uncertainty is not irrational.
• 1:12
  SPEAKER_00: The question is, what do you do with it?
• 1:15
  SPEAKER_00: And the difference between a great financial decision and a devastating one is a volatile market.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_00: And not having an intelligent way to navigate it, you need a framework.
• 1:28
  SPEAKER_00: You need a way to think about what's happening that doesn't require you to suppress the feeling, but also doesn't let that feeling make or drive your decisions.
• 1:37
  SPEAKER_00: Today I want to help you create and give you that framework, not just a generic stay the course because that's what you're supposed to do.
• 1:45
  SPEAKER_00: We're gonna go through a specific, sophisticated approach to think about your money when markets are unsettled, built for women managing serious wealth, not just for someone who is starting out.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_00: Let me start with the most important reframe of this entire episode.
• 2:02
  SPEAKER_00: Market uncertainty, it's not a bug and it's not a malfunction, and it is not a sign that something has gone so wrong.
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_00: Market uncertainty is a permanent feature of investing.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: It is part of the markets.
• 2:17
  SPEAKER_00: There has never been a sustained period of history in the financial markets when there is no uncertainty.
• 2:23
  SPEAKER_00: The investors who built generational wealth did not do so and in a calm environment that was predictable in its conditions.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_00: They did so in conditions that felt exactly like the conditions we are navigating right now.
• 2:38
  SPEAKER_00: What changes is the source of the uncertainty.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_00: Right now, in 2026, the headlines are mainly about tariffs, geopolitical instability, and interest rate direction.
• 2:50
  SPEAKER_00: We also now have AI valuations and a midterm election cycle coming up.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: But back in 2020, we had the pandemic.
• 2:57
  SPEAKER_00: 2008, it was a financial system collapse.
• 2:59
  SPEAKER_00: In 2001, it was terrorism and a tech bubble, and that were bursting simultaneously.
• 3:06
  SPEAKER_00: The feeling is always the same.
• 3:08
  SPEAKER_00: However, the sources are always changing and not always something we can predict.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: The first thing I want you to understand is that your portfolio was designed for uncertainty.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: Not despite it, at least it should be.
• 3:22
  SPEAKER_00: A well-constructed financial plan at your wealth level is accounting for volatility.
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_00: It assumes that there will be periods of drawdown.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_00: It is not built on the assumption of calm markets.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_00: It is built on the assumption that markets will be uncertain and that your plan needs to function regardless of what is happening in those markets.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: Here's the framework that I typically use with clients, and it has four layers to it.
• 3:47
  SPEAKER_00: Layer one is looking at liquidity first.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: Before you can think clearly about any other part of your portfolio, you need to know that your immediate and also midterm cash needs are being covered.
• 4:01
  SPEAKER_00: And they are covered in a way that is not dependent on selling investments at a bad moment in time.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_00: Now, for most women in this audience, this means that two to three years of living expenses are in cash in a very short duration, stable instrument.
• 4:20
  SPEAKER_00: They are not invested in equities.
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_00: It is not in something that could be worth a meaningful less in December than it is today type of portfolio.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: It needs to be protected, available, and not at risk.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_00: When your liquidity is secure, your reaction to the market and volatility changes is going to stabilize.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_00: You are no longer looking at a portfolio decline and asking, how am I going to live?
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_00: You are looking at it and asking, is this a problem that I actually need to address?
• 4:48
  SPEAKER_00: Or is this a normal fluctuation that my plan has already accounted for?
• 4:52
  SPEAKER_00: And that is a fundamentally different question.
• 4:56
  SPEAKER_00: And it is the only possible way to navigate it when your liquidity is already separated out and you know you can still pay your bills.
• 5:03
  SPEAKER_00: The second layer is having purpose-based buckets.
• 5:06
  SPEAKER_00: And this is one of my favorite parts.
• 5:08
  SPEAKER_00: This is a great way to eliminate the anxiety of market volatility by having a clear picture of what each portion of your portfolio is before and assigning it to a goal.
• 5:18
  SPEAKER_00: What time horizon is also governing that money?
• 5:21
  SPEAKER_00: The money that you need in the next two to three years, it is in stable liquid instruments.
• 5:25
  SPEAKER_00: The money that you need three to 10 years, it's in more of a balanced allocation designed for moderate growth, but also a reasonable amount of stability.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_00: The money that you don't need for more than 10 years, which is that longer-term growth, you are accepting that short-term volatility in exchange for long-term appreciation.
• 5:46
  SPEAKER_00: And you know that through the structure of your portfolio.
• 5:49
  SPEAKER_00: The money that is in those longer-term buckets, it's supposed to have some volatility.
• 5:54
  SPEAKER_00: That's designed.
• 5:55
  SPEAKER_00: When you can see a portfolio decline and say, that's in my 15-year bucket and doesn't matter right now, I don't have to worry about what it's worth today.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_00: That is the kind of clarity that prevents a panic sell at exactly the wrong moment.
• 6:10
  SPEAKER_00: Has my risk tolerance changed in a way that reflects my actual life and not just a temporary emotional state?
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_00: And that one is a key question to ask there.
• 6:19
  SPEAKER_00: If the answer to all of these is no, then your plan is still your plan.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_00: The market is doing what markets do, and it is not a reason to change the plan.
• 6:29
  SPEAKER_00: It's noise, and it is definitely uncomfortable noise, but it's something that we all live through.
• 6:35
  SPEAKER_00: If the answer to any of those is yes, that is when you call your advisor, not to react to the market, but to update your plan based on your actual life that now has changed.
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_00: Layer four, volatile markets are planning opportunities rather than a time to run away.
• 6:52
  SPEAKER_00: This is the layer that actually separates proactive wealth management from reactive wealth management.
• 6:58
  SPEAKER_00: In a declining market, Roth conversions actually become more efficient.
• 7:03
  SPEAKER_00: You are paying tax on a lower value and you get more future tax-free growth.
• 7:08
  SPEAKER_00: Tax loss harvesting opportunities expand, and positions that were in gain territory may move to now lost territory and create harvesting options that didn't exist maybe even six months ago.
• 7:22
  SPEAKER_00: Uncertainty is absolutely uncomfortable.
• 7:25
  SPEAKER_00: And for the prepared investor, it is also fertile ground to make changes.
• 7:29
  SPEAKER_00: The women who come out of volatile periods with stronger financial positions than they were entering in with, they are not the ones who had the best luck.
• 7:40
  SPEAKER_00: They are the ones who had advisors and a financial team working proactively during the volatility, not after it.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_00: Let me name something that most financial conversations avoid.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_00: The research on investor behavior, something that is my favorite topic to look into, is uncomfortable but also clear.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_00: We are wired to respond to market declines with that desire to sell.
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_00: This isn't weakness, it's our evolution.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_00: The same instinct that told our ancestors to flee from danger is telling you to get out of a declining market.
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_00: It feels like this survival instinct in our bones.
• 8:16
  SPEAKER_00: In investing, it is the most consistently wealth-destroying behavior pattern that we actually see existing.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_00: There's data from Dalbrar's annual studies that consistently show individual investors significantly underperform indexes they are invested in.
• 8:35
  SPEAKER_00: And it's not because of bad investment choices, but it's because of bad timing decisions.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_00: Selling near the bottom and then buying back right at the top and repeating the cycle over and over again.
• 8:47
  SPEAKER_00: At your wealth level, a poorly timed panic cell can cost you more in a single year than most people earn in a lifetime.
• 8:56
  SPEAKER_00: The framework that I gave you in layer one through three exists precisely to give you a rational mind to structure it, and it needs to override that emotional impulse in the moment when it is the hardest to do.
• 9:11
  SPEAKER_00: And you don't have to pretend that the anxiety isn't there.
• 9:15
  SPEAKER_00: It is.
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_00: You just need a system that is going to work when that anxiety and panic is rising.
• 9:21
  SPEAKER_00: And here is the number that should make that system feel worth building.
• 9:25
  SPEAKER_00: Vanguard's Investment Advisory Research Center has spent over 25 years actually studying what a good advisor contributes to a client's financial outcome.
• 9:35
  SPEAKER_00: And this is not in theory, but in actual dollars.
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_00: Their conclusion, which was published in the Advisor's Alpha Research and updated as recently as 2025, is that working with an advisor who follows best practices in financial planning, tax strategy, and also behavioral coaching, can add approximately 3% in net returns per year.
• 9:58
  SPEAKER_00: And that figure is calculated after a hypothetical advisory fee, not before it.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_00: The single largest contributing factor to that is that 3%.
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_00: It's not asset allocation and it's not even actually tax planning, but it is behavioral coaching.
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_00: It is keeping clients invested when the impulse in our body is to flee and it is screaming.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_00: Vanguard attributes up to 1.5 percentage points per year of that total value to that one function alone.
• 10:27
  SPEAKER_00: On a$3 million portfolio, 1.5% is$45,000 a year.
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_00: Not from a smart trade, not from doing something reactive when the market scared you.
• 10:38
  SPEAKER_00: This is the real value of having someone in your corner during uncertainty.
• 10:44
  SPEAKER_00: And it is why the framework I just gave you is not just a mental model, it is one of the highest returning decisions that you can make for yourself.
• 10:53
  SPEAKER_00: I want to share a story, and as always, identity has been changed.
• 10:57
  SPEAKER_00: A client who I'm gonna call Vivian for today came to me in April of last year, and this was right in the middle of the most volatile stretch that we had of 2025.
• 11:06
  SPEAKER_00: She was 63 years old at the time and recently retired.
• 11:10
  SPEAKER_00: She was a former SVP of operations, and she had a portfolio at the time, right around$4.2 million.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_00: Up to that point, she had lived through the 2008 crisis, the 2020 crash, and several even smaller corrections throughout her lifetime.
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_00: So she knew intellectually that selling in a downturn was the wrong move.
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_00: She called me on a Tuesday morning, and I won't forget it.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_00: The markets were down and they were down sharply.
• 11:36
  SPEAKER_00: She had opened up the portfolio app on her phone before she even had breakfast and had seen a single-day decline of$180,000.
• 11:44
  SPEAKER_00: And she said, I think I need to move everything to cash.
• 11:47
  SPEAKER_00: I know that's not what I'm supposed to say, but I feel like I am just watching everything burn and it's doing nothing for me.
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_00: So here's what we did.
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_00: I don't want to dismiss her in this moment.
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_00: So I asked to walk through with her this four-layer framework.
• 12:03
  SPEAKER_00: And we went through all of it together.
• 12:05
  SPEAKER_00: And I said, Does your liquidity cover the next two to three years without us having to touch anything in this investment portfolio?
• 12:12
  SPEAKER_00: She said yes.
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_00: Which bucket did the decline happen in?
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_00: We pulled up her portfolio and investments, and it was mostly the long-term bucket.
• 12:20
  SPEAKER_00: So I asked her, has your financial plan actually changed?
• 12:23
  SPEAKER_00: Has your income, your timeline, your needs, your portfolio value, is that the only thing that's changed in this moment?
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_00: And so she said to me, No, it's just the number on the screen.
• 12:34
  SPEAKER_00: So we didn't have to make any changes, and she didn't need to move to cash in that moment.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_00: Two weeks later, we actually saw that the market had recovered from most of the decline, not all of it, and by year end, her portfolio was higher than it had been the April before the volatility.
• 12:49
  SPEAKER_00: Not because I predicted that, no one can.
• 12:52
  SPEAKER_00: I don't have some magic crystal ball, but because she had a framework and held her emotions, and we walked through it together, and she expressed how she was feeling, and we walked through a plan.
• 13:03
  SPEAKER_00: And what she said later was, I've lived through enough of these that I should have known better.
• 13:07
  SPEAKER_00: But knowing better doesn't make anyone feel better.
• 13:10
  SPEAKER_00: What helps is having someone to walk through these moments with you.
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_00: The questions gave me something to do with that anxiety rather than just having to act on it, was what she shared with me at the end of our conversation during her December 2025 review.
• 13:24
  SPEAKER_00: Now, a framework doesn't eliminate the feeling.
• 13:26
  SPEAKER_00: I'm not going to claim it does, but it is going to give you something to do when that emotional money piece comes up and is a voice you cannot silence.
• 13:37
  SPEAKER_00: So what do we do from here?
• 13:38
  SPEAKER_00: Let's go over our three takeaway actions.
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_00: And action one is confirm your liquidity position in your next advisory meeting.
• 13:45
  SPEAKER_00: I want you to ask specifically, do I have enough cash for two to three years of living expenses in stable liquid instruments that are not subject to significant market risk, especially with everything going on?
• 13:57
  SPEAKER_00: And if the answer is no, or if your advisor can't answer that question immediately, that is the first gap that you need to close.
• 14:04
  SPEAKER_00: Liquidity security is the foundation of emotional stability, especially in volatile markets.
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_00: Action number two, I want you to ask your advisor to walk you through the bucket structure that you have in your investments.
• 14:19
  SPEAKER_00: And here's what you can say.
• 14:20
  SPEAKER_00: Can you show me what portion of my portfolio is for each time horizon and what is that portfolio invested in?
• 14:28
  SPEAKER_00: If your financial plan doesn't have an explicit bucket structure, or if your advisor can't describe one clearly to you, this is worth building and fully understanding.
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_00: It is the single most effective tool I know for giving wealthy women the clarity to stay the course when our internal instinct is telling us to run for the hills.
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_00: Action number three is I want you to write down four questions right now before the next volatile period that we see.
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_00: And this is when markets decline.
• 14:59
  SPEAKER_00: I want you to pull out this list before you do anything else and reflect back.
• 15:04
  SPEAKER_00: Number one, is my liquidity still secure?
• 15:06
  SPEAKER_00: Number two, which bucket of mine is declining and which assets and investments?
• 15:11
  SPEAKER_00: What is my time horizon for those?
• 15:13
  SPEAKER_00: Number three, has my financial plan changed at all?
• 15:16
  SPEAKER_00: And number four, is there a planning opportunity here?
• 15:20
  SPEAKER_00: Something like a Roth conversion, tax loss harvesting, rebalancing, and that's something you can also defer and ask your advisor about.
• 15:27
  SPEAKER_00: And they should also be presenting to you during these times.
• 15:30
  SPEAKER_00: And if you don't have the answers to those four questions, call your advisor, bring your financial team together in those moments.
• 15:37
  SPEAKER_00: That is exactly what those people are for and to help you navigate.
• 15:41
  SPEAKER_00: Markets will feel uncertain again.
• 15:43
  SPEAKER_00: They always do.
• 15:45
  SPEAKER_00: What I want you to have when they do, it's not a prediction.
• 15:48
  SPEAKER_00: Nobody has those.
• 15:49
  SPEAKER_00: And if they tell you they do, you should be worried.
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_00: But I want you to have this framework, a way of thinking about your money that is built for uncertainty, not despite it.
• 16:00
  SPEAKER_00: That framework is your most valuable financial asset in those uncertain times.
• 16:04
  SPEAKER_00: It is more than any position in your portfolio and being able to navigate it and stay the course.
• 16:10
  SPEAKER_00: If this episode gave you something useful to think about and a way to help you navigate the uncertainty of markets, make sure you share it with a friend or someone that could benefit this exact strategy and having these tools in their toolkit before they ever need them.
• 16:25
  SPEAKER_00: And as you are navigating this conversation with your advisor and planning for market downturns, because they do happen, as we've covered, and they don't have the best answers for you, or your gut is telling you to get a second opinion, head over to tannisfingroup.com slash contact.
• 16:41
  SPEAKER_00: We've reopened financial planning for the rest of the year and make sure that you apply for a complimentary intro call on our website.
• 16:49
  SPEAKER_00: I look forward to seeing you again next time on an episode of the Wealth Cafe.