Latest / INSIGHT TODAY / Americans stock up for holiday bargains

Transcript

Americans stock up for holiday bargains · INSIGHT TODAY

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Despite recent polling showing Americans are not happy with the economy,
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: this holiday weekend could see a record number of shoppers,
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: whether it's online or in person. Our scene and chief
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: data analysts, Harry Ended, is here to run the numbers
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: for US.
• 0:12
  Speaker 2: Hi, Harry, Hey there, Jessica. Happy weekend to you. Of course,
• 0:17
  Speaker 2: this is a holiday weekend. We had Thanksgiving on Thursday,
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: we had Black Friday yesterday, We're going to have Cyber
• 0:24
  Speaker 2: Monday coming up in just two days, and so this
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: is a big season for shopping. Of course, the start
• 0:32
  Speaker 2: of the holiday shopping season, and we're expecting record numbers
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: this weekend. What are we talking about? Record shoppers this weekend?
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: Between Black Friday and Cyber Monday. Who one hundred and
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: eighty seven million Americans either shopping online or in person.
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: I must admit I am not necessarily one to be
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: shopping in person. I like to avoid the crowds. That's
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: what I like to do. That's why I'm a much
• 0:57
  Speaker 2: bigger fan of Cyber Monday than i am a Black Friday.
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: I prefer to spend my weekends at home or maybe
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: going to a nice little luncheon. Net But this one
• 1:05
  Speaker 2: hundred and eighty seven million is three million more than
• 1:08
  Speaker 2: we had last year. Again, record numbers shopping this weekend.
• 1:12
  Speaker 2: Of course, it's not all good news when it comes
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: to the economy, Jessica, because we're in a bit of
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: a ca shape right whereby the top of the economic
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: spectrum seems to be going along as if everything is normal, nice, fantastic,
• 1:23
  Speaker 2: while those on the lower rung facing tougher times. And
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: we see that when it comes to shopping this holiday season.
• 1:29
  Speaker 2: Expected holiday shopping in terms of money versus twenty twenty
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: four by household income, you can see that this is
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: a real economic divide in terms of how much folks
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: are expecting to spend this year versus last year. When
• 1:41
  Speaker 2: it comes to shopping during the holiday season, if you
• 1:43
  Speaker 2: make less than fifty thousand dollars in your household income,
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: the expected amount to be spent down down sixteen percent
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: versus a year ago. You jump to the middle rung
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: fifty to one hundred thousand, again down but by less
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: down six percent. Look at those making at least one
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: hundred thousand dollars in terms of their household income, it's
• 2:01
  Speaker 2: actually up. It's up about five percent, or at least
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: the expected amount versus last year, again illustrative of this
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: case shaped economy, whereby the wealthier folks are spending as
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: if nothing is wrong, spending as if times are good. Well,
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: those are on the lower rung of the economic spectrum,
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: not seeing the good times nearly as much, in fact,
• 2:20
  Speaker 2: seeing some bad times in a number of cases. Of course,
• 2:23
  Speaker 2: this is not the only sign that the economy is
• 2:26
  Speaker 2: perhaps not as strong as some might necessarily want. Of course,
• 2:29
  Speaker 2: this holiday season, if you're going to be buying something,
• 2:32
  Speaker 2: you might be putting it on your credit card, and
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: we're seeing some potentially troubling numbers when it comes to
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: that credit card debt. What are we talking about here, Well,
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: let's take a look at credit card balance that's ninety
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: days or more late. Ninety days are more late. We're
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: talking about the highest percentage since the Great Recession. You know,
• 2:51
  Speaker 2: you go back to quarter three of twenty twenty two,
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: three years ago, seven point six percent of all credit
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: card balances were ninety days or more late late in
• 3:01
  Speaker 2: terms of their payment. You jump over, now, look at this.
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: This percentage has really climbed in quarter three of twenty
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: twenty five, which of course is last quarter we're talking
• 3:09
  Speaker 2: about twelve point four percent. That is a significant significant rise, Jessica.
• 3:16
  Speaker 2: I think the question is will this percentage become worse
• 3:19
  Speaker 2: during the holiday season. We've obviously seen that those who
• 3:23
  Speaker 2: earn less are cutting back on their spending, expecting to
• 3:26
  Speaker 2: cut back on their spending. Of course, there are plenty
• 3:28
  Speaker 2: of wealthier people who also have big credit card debts
• 3:31
  Speaker 2: as well, so we'll just have to wait and see
• 3:32
  Speaker 2: what happens. But this, to me is a troublesome sign.
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: Folks spending money that they simply do not have, and
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: we're seeing it at a higher percentage since the Great Recession.
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: Hopefully we'll have some better news on the economy going forward,
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: but for now, Jessica Dean, this is all I got.
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: For you, and tis the season for holiday shopping. Americans
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: say they're nervous about the economy, particularly about higher prices
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: in a week job market, but many retail experts are
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: forecasting hardy sales growth. MasterCard PEG's is spending growth about
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: three point six percent for the year. Joining us now,
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: Heatha Herzog, retail and consumer spending expert at our own firm,
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: H Squared. Heith a great to have you, Thanks for
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: being here.
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: With us.
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: So what do you think so far about what we're
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: seeing for this holiday shopping season.
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah, you hit the nail on the head.
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: This is going to be one of those major holiday
• 4:20
  Speaker 4: shopping seasons. I'm going to break it down for you.
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: As of now, we're looking at Black Friday numbers of
• 4:25
  Speaker 4: almost twelve billion dollars.
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: That's up nine point one percent. This is from Adobe.
• 4:29
  Speaker 4: Analytics and the also the spending online and insore was
• 4:34
  Speaker 4: up about four percent. Now, I was checking some of
• 4:37
  Speaker 4: the real time statistics coming out of the after Pay,
• 4:42
  Speaker 4: the after.
• 4:42
  Speaker 3: Pay cash app ecosystem. This is run by block and
• 4:47
  Speaker 3: per neighborhood.
• 4:48
  Speaker 4: So New York was doing about fifty four million, Miami
• 4:52
  Speaker 4: twenty million, Los Angeles was twenty million, and Chicago was
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: twenty four million.
• 4:57
  Speaker 3: And it also broke it down in neighborhoods. Little neighborhood
• 5:00
  Speaker 3: here on.
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: The Upper West Side did almost a million dollars for
• 5:03
  Speaker 4: Black Friday. Food and beverage up five point eight percent,
• 5:07
  Speaker 4: which kind of shows that people aren't just just spending
• 5:10
  Speaker 4: on clothing and objects, are also going out to eat
• 5:13
  Speaker 4: and you know, buying those gift cards and also apparel.
• 5:16
  Speaker 3: Retail was up four percent.
• 5:17
  Speaker 4: According to this this after pay block ecosystem.
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: So it's pretty interesting that spending is really there.
• 5:25
  Speaker 4: People are certainly going out and droves, but we can't
• 5:28
  Speaker 4: ignore the fact that this economy is bifurcated, that case
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: shaped economy, that that larger spender, that one that the
• 5:35
  Speaker 4: the high earner is the one that's really kind of
• 5:38
  Speaker 4: spending and putting that on the.
• 5:39
  Speaker 3: Credit card, or the lower income earner.
• 5:42
  Speaker 4: Are taking more specific steps to spend there being a
• 5:45
  Speaker 4: little bit more careful.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: And so is that how you explain kind of this
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: dichotomy between all these polls we get back where people
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: say they're really nervous, they're really pessimistic about the economy,
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: and then these spending numbers that we're seeing that you're
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: just listing absolutely.
• 6:00
  Speaker 4: So I was looking at I know, I'm throwing a
• 6:02
  Speaker 4: lot of statistics at you, but I was looking at
• 6:04
  Speaker 4: a report from the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston. Right
• 6:07
  Speaker 4: it said that a lot of the consumer spending is
• 6:10
  Speaker 4: being driven by higher income earners putting things on their
• 6:14
  Speaker 4: credit card. They are really price agnostic. I've been saying
• 6:18
  Speaker 4: this a lot, that it doesn't matter if the price
• 6:19
  Speaker 4: of strawberries go up or price of a handbag goes up,
• 6:22
  Speaker 4: it doesn't matter to them. Meanwhile, the lower income spenders,
• 6:26
  Speaker 4: they are the ones that are priced sensitive. So when
• 6:29
  Speaker 4: we see that spending, that drive and spending is from
• 6:31
  Speaker 4: that upper part of the K, that higher income earner
• 6:35
  Speaker 4: that's putting it on the credit card, and then they
• 6:37
  Speaker 4: are paying.
• 6:38
  Speaker 3: Off that credit card each month.
• 6:40
  Speaker 4: The lower income spender that's putting it on credit cards,
• 6:44
  Speaker 4: they're the ones that have to be careful because if
• 6:46
  Speaker 4: they are not paying that off every single month, those
• 6:49
  Speaker 4: interest rates are going to bite them.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and then what about inflation, How is that factory
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: into any to any of this?
• 6:58
  Speaker 4: Well, again, looking at the K shaped economy, right, the
• 7:01
  Speaker 4: higher income earners not really that's sensitive to inflation, but
• 7:05
  Speaker 4: the lower income earner is absolutely. And then we were
• 7:08
  Speaker 4: talking about the credit card. It all kind of comes around, right.
• 7:12
  Speaker 4: So if the lower income earner is putting things on
• 7:14
  Speaker 4: credit cards because they want to have a merry Christmas, right,
• 7:17
  Speaker 4: or a society that likes to shop and likes to celebrate,
• 7:20
  Speaker 4: if they are not paying that off every month, and
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: if those inflation rates either stay the same or potentially rise,
• 7:27
  Speaker 4: that's what's really going to hurt them in the long run,
• 7:30
  Speaker 4: and that's where it starts to get a little iffy
• 7:32
  Speaker 4: for them.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and so for people out there who are preparing
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: to shop, are there any trends anything they should be
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: aware of, like good notes as they are shopping for
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: the holiday season.
• 7:43
  Speaker 4: Well, there's a way to go ahead and track your prices.
• 7:45
  Speaker 4: So you know, everyone wants to get a discount. But
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: there's a thing called price dynamism. To price dynamics, right,
• 7:52
  Speaker 4: so when that means basically, promotions change, prices change. But
• 7:56
  Speaker 4: one way as a consumer that they can fight back
• 7:58
  Speaker 4: or we can fight back, is getting a plugin.
• 8:01
  Speaker 3: Into your browser.
• 8:02
  Speaker 4: There are little plugins hilarious names, but one is called
• 8:06
  Speaker 4: Camel Camel Camel.
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: The other one is called PayPal Honey, and the other
• 8:10
  Speaker 3: one is called Kipa.
• 8:11
  Speaker 4: And they can go ahead and track the prices and
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: offer coupons so that if there's a specific price you
• 8:17
  Speaker 4: want to pay on a product, it can tell you, well,
• 8:20
  Speaker 4: the price is dropping or it's increasing, or buy.
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: Now or wait a bit. So that's one way.
• 8:25
  Speaker 4: And of course a gentic Ai people really leaning hard
• 8:28
  Speaker 4: on agentic Ai. Amazon has rufus that's helping people keep
• 8:32
  Speaker 4: more organized and I think between those two you can keep.
• 8:35
  Speaker 3: Organized and also keep on top of the pricing.
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: Some good tips, all right, Heatha Arizon, thanks so much.
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: We appreciate it.