Latest / AST SpaceMobile Podcast / Anpanman - 99 Mbps from Space: AST SpaceMobile Decimates the Competition

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Anpanman - 99 Mbps from Space: AST SpaceMobile Decimates the Competition · AST SpaceMobile Podcast

• 0:07
  is the AST Space Mobile podcast. And we just basically from the
• 0:12
  phone be seamless regardless of where you are.
• 0:16
  We don't want the user even to know that it's connected by
• 0:18
  satellite. Listen, the opportunity that we
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  have is very, very, very large. Everyone thanks for joining.
• 0:29
  I fired up a space because this is a crazy development today.
• 0:34
  We just got this PR from ASD based Mobile.
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  I wanted to provide some context around it and yeah, just talk
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  about it. This is insane.
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  So for those that haven't seen, which I'm sure you have, ASD
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  just released this video. It looks like there's some
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  engineers out on the boat where there's no coverage on the
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  Bahamas and they're testing the speed.
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  And keep in mind this is the Block 1 satellite, right?
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  So these are the five Block 1 Bluebirds, which are smaller
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  their the previous generation, their first five test satellites
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  that that you know, I think all the M and OS have been testing
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  with. And yeah, they disclosed
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  something pretty remarkable today.
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  They they achieved download peak speed of 99 megabits per second.
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  I mean, in actual audio it was 98.9, but all roundup.
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  So 99 megabits per second from space.
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  And so this was to a direct standard mobile phone over
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  international waters. And so there's no modifications,
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  no new hardware. That's an important distinction
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  because for Starlink, for example, you need to have one
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  of, I think now there's like 20 or some odd phones that work
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  with Starlink, but you need new phone, a new phone to work with
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  Starlink. Whereas AST works, it's
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  backwards compatible, it works with any phone.
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  And so they achieved this tremendous accomplishment and
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  putting it into context, 99 megabits per second, that's in
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  one beam cell. So let's say if there were other
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  users in the area, they would all kind of have to share that
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  that speed. But that is tremendous for a
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  given cell. And for comparisons, let's see.
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  So Blue Walker three, I think peaked out at like maybe it was,
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  I think it was like a 20 megabits per second.
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  And so now we're achieving around 99 for block 1 Blue Blue
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  Walker 3 was like a, a test, a case study, you know, a test
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  satellite prototype. And then now block 1 was, you
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  know, slightly closer to production, but not obviously
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  block 2, which I'll talk about in a bit.
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  But if you want to compare block 1 satellite, that's 99 megabits
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  per second. Compare that to Starlink's
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  direct to cell satellites, which they've got 650, you know,
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  flowing out in space at very low Earth orbit.
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  And so for those that don't know, Starlink had to lower the
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  orbits of their satellite in order to make the link budget.
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  So originally they were going to orbit at I think it was like 500
• 2:57
  kilometers in space, but they had to lower them so that they
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  could achieve proper performance.
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  So they had to lower them to 350.
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  That's that's what happens when you have a shitty solution
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  that's not engineered from the ground up to do this.
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  But those satellites only deliver about, I think it's at
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  peak 7 megabits per second per cell, right?
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  And it's more like 4 megabits per second based off of various
• 3:20
  publications and, and people who've tested the service.
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  So it's truly just an SOS, you know, text texting service.
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  You can use some dumbed down apps from WhatsApp and, and a
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  few other providers. I think All Trails just released
• 3:34
  an app as well, But that is truly narrowband.
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  I mean, it's, it's basically at the same level as what Global
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  Star is providing today, right? Which is what Amazon's acquiring
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  and they're hoping for at some point in the future to transform
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  it into some type of usable service.
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  So going back to this, the other tremendous thing that was
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  disclosed is that the the in this, you know, I guess it's the
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  third sentence they say next generation satellite expect to
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  nearly double these speeds. So they're talking about black
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  the block 2 satellites, which we have BB 6 that's currently
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  orbiting. And then of course, BB7 didn't
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  unfortunately didn't make it to operations.
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  But the next batch of three satellites which are going to be
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  launched in mid June, which we we recently learned about that
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  is the next generation of satellites, right.
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  And so Bell talked about the the fact that they were achieving
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  somewhere over a hundred 760 megabits per second with block
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  the the BB6, you know, the block 2 satellite, he kind of hinted
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  at that at the launch. And so their expectation is that
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  this next run of satellites are going to get to 200 megabits per
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  second, which is astounding, right.
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  And so we talked about ASD having that lead versus
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  Starlink. Starlink can do four to seven
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  megabits per second in a cell and we can do 99 megabits with
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  the previous generation. We're probably at around is
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  about to talk about 160 with the block to the test satellite
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  that's currently out in space and that's expected to get to
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  200 as disclosed here. So what does that mean?
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  Like how does that compare to Starlink?
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  So Starlink, I think Shotwell, who's the CEO of, of SpaceX,
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  disclosed that the next generation of Starlink, which
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  has a large phased array. Funny how that works, how people
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  are like, oh, you got to have small satellites and and to do,
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  you know, broadband connectivity and and then AST came out with
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  these large honking, you know, massive solar arrays, large
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  phase array satellites, and they're like, no, if you want to
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  connect to mobile devices, you got to go big and everybody Pooh
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  poohed the idea. But then funny enough, like
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  everybody is shifting towards bigger satellites, like Starlink
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  is getting bigger and bigger because you need a large phased
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  array in order to communicate to a small antenna down on Earth.
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  And so the next generation that Shotwell is talking about where
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  the, you know, SpaceX is spinning up a new ASIC for that
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  satellite. They're talking about, you know,
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  that satellite will utilize the Echostar spectrum, which that
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  deal is going to close sometime at the end of next summer.
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  And then they're spinning up this ASIC.
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  They expect it to be available maybe in 20282028.
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  So Starlink, that next duration satellite is also, you know,
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  dependent on Starship getting to commercial Acadians, but that
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  that satellite's not going to be in production until, I don't
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  know, I mean, based off of SpaceX time, and we all know all
• 6:35
  space companies time. If they're saying 2028, you're
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  probably looking at 2029 or 2030 and they're hoping to get to 150
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  megabits per second, right. And so this is for all the, I
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  guess all the bears out there or people who lament the fact that
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  the company should be under promising or delivering, they're
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  doing it right now. Like they're, they've been
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  talking about 120 megabits per second is kind of the optimal
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  speed. But now they're saying they're
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  going to double to 200 megabits per second.
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  And then, and then, you know, there's, there's a, there's a, a
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  pathway, a road map to well beyond that, right.
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  And so this is absolutely huge news.
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  The fact that the company PR what you know, the Micron
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  production facility, which looked absolutely amazing, you
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  know, they're getting scale there.
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  I think the company has talked about getting pretty close to
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  what, what they label as a hockey stick of production
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  cadence. And so it seems like we're
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  pretty close to that. So this whole idea of
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  consolation Constipation is, is Kook talks about it seems like
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  we're coming to an end with that.
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  And so that PR on Friday and then this one right before
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  earnings. I think we're in for some really
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  interesting disclosures today during the, the quarterly
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  update. So I, you know, for me, I, I
• 7:55
  come away from this as you know, I think even with these
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  disclosures, I'd, I'd be happy and you know, see what, what
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  the, the quarter brings. But it seems like the company
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  wanted, wants to put out, like they wanted to put out some real
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  tangible evidence of, of their progress.
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  And you know, one thing that dawned on me this morning is
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  that they moved Micron production completely out of
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  Odessa, right? And so they did that because
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  they want to have more floor space in order to do payload
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  integration and, you know, assembly and testing of the
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  satellites. And so moving, you know, getting
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  that space and then standing it up and then putting all the
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  machinery in there and then getting it working like that
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  actually took time. I, I don't think, I mean, some
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  people are like, well, what are the, these guys doing?
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  What what you know, they're obviously, you know, solving the
• 8:46
  stacking issue, but to actually push out Micron production to an
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  entirely new facility, a clean space and get that up and
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  running like that takes time. And you've got to take the
• 8:58
  equipment out of the old place and make, you know, obviously
• 9:01
  they bought more equipment, but that's a lot of.
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  OK, someone's telling me that Firstnet dropped APR video too.
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  OK, I'm gonna go look at that. I guess after I stopped talking,
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  but that takes time. And this company imagine like
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  they're juggling multiple balls in the air, like they, they
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  actually, we internally have a few of their locations that
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  they've, they've built out, but there's, there's well over like
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  six production facilities that are, are, that are leased and
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  have either been fully stood up or in the process of being stood
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  up. So, you know, for those people
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  who in their idea just understand like the commercial
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  side of the business, like this company's ramping up for defense
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  too. It's just like, you know,
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  Raytheon and all these other companies who ahead of Golden
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  Dome got space and started putting up production and
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  putting CapEx in the anticipation of awards.
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  Like that's what this company's doing too.
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  And so, you know, perhaps we'll learn a bit more about that as
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  well. But, but going back to, you
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  know, star link their, their next generation, they're hoping
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  to get to 150 megabits per second.
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  Like where will we be? Right?
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  And so Katzie pointed out very astutely this morning, which I,
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  I tweeted kind of a hint at it, this whole idea of, you know,
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  the Block 2 satellites are for low band and then block 3
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  satellites will be for mid band, which is going to leverage
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  legato, you know, any L band and S band spectrum that we're able
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  to piece together. And those mid band satellites
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  are going to provide like true capacity, right, 'cause with mid
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  band spectrum, you don't get the same coverage and propagation
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  characteristics, but you can carry more data.
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  And so that's going to bump up the capacity and then eventually
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  Block 4, which I remember back in 2020 or January 2021, or was
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  it April when I talked with the Bell, that was on the road map,
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  right? Like so we're going to be doing
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  low band spectrum. We're eventually going to get to
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  mid band spectrum and then we are going to get to C band,
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  right? And C band is the stuff that the
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  FCC is freeing up. It's going to have way more
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  capacity in terms of carrying data.
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  But you're going to need like a layered cake, right?
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  You're going to need low band for coverage.
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  You're going to be mid band for capacity and then C band for
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  really like heavy duty applications, right?
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  And so when you get to C band, then you're talking about like
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  actually doing enterprise level, like fixed wireless, pretty much
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  like not to mobile phones necessarily, but doing, you
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  know, data to sending or, or, or providing broadband to like data
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  centers, right? And so the beauty of all this
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  stuff is that with the architecture that they they have
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  and that these these satellites are all coordinated by the
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  carrier's network, you're able to do carrier aggregation,
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  right? Or MIMO where you, you could
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  have three of these satellites hitting signal down to your
• 11:53
  phone and delivering 1 GB of, you know, per second data,
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  right? And so this is like back in
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  2017, I think a Bell talked about having MIMO have, you
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  know, leveraging multiple satellites.
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  And, and back then he was saying, you know, you could get
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  to theoretical speeds of 750 megabits per second.
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  But I mean, I just threw a conservative, you know, target
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  out there, let's say 1 GB per second, but you could go even
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  higher. And so with that in mind, like
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  then you're kind of reaching speeds that are approaching
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  replacement level for the threshold network now.
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  Now the ability to serve many users will will never be through
• 12:36
  satellite. Like if if you're in a very
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  dense area, towers will always be the superior solution.
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  But instead of just dead zones like we're talking about
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  creeping into suburban applications, you know, you
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  could do augmentation. Like let's say there's a, you
• 12:53
  know, the Giants football game and the network gets and then
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  there's no signal. They're not able to do any data.
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  Then the satellite, you could have some of the traffic offload
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  offloaded to satellite. And so, yeah, this is like
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  pretty insane. And you know, we're, we're only
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  talking about consumer applications.
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  Obviously there's, there's drones, Internet of Things, I
• 13:18
  mean, you name it, vehicles. Like I, I think, you know, we've
• 13:21
  talked about this in the past, but regulators who, you know, in
• 13:27
  the future when you have these, these cars that are autonomous,
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  they're always going to need to be connected, right?
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  Because there has to be a kill switch from a regulatory
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  standpoint. Like you can't just have
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  independent autonomous vehicles doing their own thing.
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  Like they have to be monitored and regulated, and so they have
• 13:44
  to be connected. And that means even even in very
• 13:48
  desolate areas or you know it, whenever I drive out to the
• 13:51
  Hamptons or go upstate, there's plenty of places where I don't
• 13:55
  get coverage right. But forget that.
• 13:58
  Like if you're coordinating with the network, you know, the MN OS
• 14:03
  network and you're on the beach on Long Island and those
• 14:08
  terrestrial, you know, the terrestrial service sucks.
• 14:10
  Like for these carriers, they can just, they can just like
• 14:14
  seamlessly weave in satellite coverage and, or to turn off
• 14:18
  some of those towers, right? And so that's the beauty of this
• 14:21
  the, the solution where, and this is the tough thing about
• 14:25
  Starlink is that Starlink is an entirely separate roaming
• 14:28
  network. And so I guess it was like a
• 14:30
  week ago, I saw some of these posts of people who were saying
• 14:34
  that the, the Starlink network and the T-Mobile network
• 14:36
  conflict. And so they're always kind of
• 14:38
  fighting each other for signal. And so the service sucks like
• 14:41
  because the phone is confused. And then that adds to the, the
• 14:45
  battery draining. Whereas this is a seamless and
• 14:47
  integrated solution where you're going to have seamless handoffs
• 14:51
  between satellite and the towers.
• 14:53
  And then often times, you know, if, if the carrier's like, hey,
• 14:56
  you know what, we're, we're not getting good coverage from this,
• 14:59
  this tower, we'll just turn it off and then turn on the
• 15:01
  satellite for that, for that specific coverage.
• 15:04
  And so that, that's, that's the beauty of having a large phased
• 15:07
  array that can beam down fixed cells.
• 15:10
  So when the satellite's moving at 17,000 mph, the cell stays
• 15:14
  fixed, right? And so your phone is talking to
• 15:17
  a specific satellite for, you know, call it 8 to 9 minutes
• 15:21
  under Starlink with a, with a cell that's complete, that's
• 15:24
  moving and it's regenerative, that phone is, is always having
• 15:28
  to look up a new satellite every two minutes, right?
• 15:31
  And the brain, the, the, the battery drain from that the, you
• 15:35
  know, obviously the, and there's a lot of friction there in terms
• 15:39
  of the actual usage. And so it's not seamless, right?
• 15:43
  And, and of course I talked about how the threshold network
• 15:46
  and satellite will fight for access to your phone, which is
• 15:49
  kind of dumb. But anyway, yeah, this is crazy
• 15:53
  news 'cause I think, you know, the company is, is quite
• 15:56
  conservative in kind of announcing these KP is unless
• 15:59
  they're, they're fully confident in them.
• 16:01
  So the fact that they're doing it now before the call, I think
• 16:05
  I'll rewrite what Kook was saying.
• 16:07
  Like you want to front load a lot of these, these videos,
• 16:12
  which explain in great detail what has been accomplished
• 16:16
  before you have an earnings call because you don't want to, you
• 16:18
  don't want to spend half the earnings call talking about.
• 16:21
  OK, well, we, we stood up this Micron facility and, and you
• 16:25
  know, this is what we did. And you want to, you want to
• 16:31
  educate investors so that then you get to the even better stuff
• 16:35
  on the first quarter or when there's Q&A from analysts, the
• 16:39
  questions have already been answered, right?
• 16:40
  Like my first question, when I saw this, I was like, Oh my
• 16:42
  gosh, I got 99 megabits per second.
• 16:44
  Like, and it's block ones. I, I wonder what they could do
• 16:47
  with block 2. And then of course I read a
• 16:49
  little longer and I was like, oh, they're going to be able to
• 16:51
  double it. So yeah, that that's, that's
• 16:55
  tremendous. And, and, you know, talking
• 16:57
  about the, the Micron facility, it was Greg any in detail about
• 17:02
  the, the process that, you know, the, the, the manufacturing
• 17:04
  process and getting some insight into that, which I think the
• 17:07
  cool thing is like it's, they're, it's tangible, right?
• 17:10
  Like they've talked about the facilities and staying at
• 17:13
  production. And, and I think for any
• 17:14
  investor, it's sometimes it's hard to imagine that unless
• 17:18
  you're like, unless you work in production and operations, but
• 17:22
  it's kind of hard to imagine the gravity and the gravity of, of
• 17:26
  what that requires, right? And then you actually see it
• 17:30
  happening with, with employees there.
• 17:32
  And it's just really cool 'cause it, it makes it tangible and
• 17:35
  real. And so I think, you know, the
• 17:39
  other thing is, is you do realize like how important these
• 17:43
  employees are. And just like, you know,
• 17:46
  learning to walk the crawl, walk and then run, like it takes time
• 17:50
  to get these processes down, which, you know, Cassie has
• 17:54
  talked about building the machine that makes the machine.
• 17:56
  And so they're going to get more and more efficient with that.
• 17:59
  And they're not going to make the first time you do it,
• 18:02
  there's going to be a lot of learnings and you're going to
• 18:04
  think that you did it right the first time and, and there's
• 18:06
  going to be mistakes along the way.
• 18:08
  And then the second time you do it, you're like, oh, actually
• 18:10
  there's I can remove a few of these steps or this was unneeded
• 18:14
  or you make a huge mistake and you're like, crap, we got to go
• 18:16
  go through it again. But this is the production hell
• 18:20
  that people go through in order to, in order to get to an
• 18:25
  optimal level of manufacturing. And I think eventually, like
• 18:29
  some of those manual processes that we saw, like eventually
• 18:31
  those will become automated, right?
• 18:33
  Like once they have a very good handle of what's required, then
• 18:37
  you can start bringing robots. Robots meaning like arms, not,
• 18:41
  not droids, humanoids or or whatever, but you know, maybe
• 18:44
  the future. But but yeah, what, what an
• 18:48
  exciting time. But I think, yeah, it's, I think
• 18:53
  this I, I just listened to Kook's space from last night.
• 18:57
  I started listening to it and then I fell asleep.
• 18:59
  And so I don't listen to it again.
• 19:01
  And it is pretty. I just wanted to highlight this.
• 19:04
  I tweeted this out. I thought it was quite funny.
• 19:06
  He's Kook has a way with humor, which I do not.
• 19:09
  I don't think anybody does. But I thought it was funny when
• 19:12
  he said, you know, some dope on Reddit said that the first thing
• 19:15
  I learned in Business School. And then Kook said, dude, that's
• 19:18
  your first mistake. You had to go to Business
• 19:20
  School. And so whatever you learn from a
• 19:22
  professor in Business School who's never run or owned or
• 19:25
  founded a business was the best business practice is to under
• 19:28
  promise and over deliver. And what he was saying is like,
• 19:31
  no, that's not true. And what I liked about his
• 19:34
  description is that he was saying if you are a radical
• 19:36
  renegade of funk that is redefining industry, the best
• 19:40
  practice is to be batshit crazy and inspire your team to do the
• 19:43
  impossible. Because even if you're delayed,
• 19:46
  that alternative is way the hell better than the, you know, then
• 19:51
  nothing happening, which is the impossible.
• 19:53
  And so you're saying like, you know, that's what a bell does.
• 19:55
  That's what Ivan does. Does you have to rally A-Team.
• 19:59
  And so when you have a team that's killing itself, you know,
• 20:03
  executing against what are impossible goals, you will
• 20:06
  probably miss those goals. There'll be delays, but.
• 20:08
  You can't then communicate internally an aspirational goal
• 20:11
  and then publicly be like, oh, I was just kidding, you know, no,
• 20:15
  you, you set ambitious goals internally and externally,
• 20:19
  right? Because as we've talked about
• 20:20
  before, like you've got to manage suppliers,
• 20:24
  subcontractors, all these things, right?
• 20:26
  And so it's not like you can run 2 separate processes.
• 20:29
  You, you are going to go full bore after one goal, right?
• 20:33
  And, and if you're doing something that's impossible,
• 20:35
  that was like thought to be impossible, there are going to
• 20:37
  be delays, there are going to be hiccups along the way.
• 20:40
  And but you know, whenever you have a tech founder, a start up
• 20:44
  going to raise venture money, you don't, you don't give
• 20:47
  people, you know, this is my, this is my base case.
• 20:52
  I'm hoping to attack a market that's just, you know, $200
• 20:56
  million. No, you're going to go out and
• 20:58
  give them the your full vision and, and what you hope to
• 21:02
  achieve, right? And that's what people invest
• 21:04
  in. They, they want to invest in
• 21:05
  something that's extraordinary. And here I think it's important
• 21:10
  to point out that like what we're doing was thought to be
• 21:13
  impossible. And but when you look at the
• 21:15
  actual results, we are accomplishing the impossible and
• 21:18
  that's a beat, right? And so for people who are we get
• 21:23
  upset about timelines, I mean, just think about it like the
• 21:26
  Block 2 satellites going to be pumping out 200 megahertz per
• 21:28
  second. And and Starlink, who's the
• 21:32
  ordained, you know, coordinated king of space, they're hoping to
• 21:37
  get to 150 in four years. So like, yeah, we might be
• 21:41
  delayed by a few weeks, a few months, but is it going to
• 21:45
  matter? Probably not.
• 21:48
  We're really in the race against ourselves, right?
• 21:51
  And so I'm looking forward to the call today.
• 21:56
  I think there's going to be some interesting Nuggets.
• 21:58
  I think the whole bearish argument around New Glenn not
• 22:03
  getting back to flight like that's going to be those guys
• 22:06
  are going to be quite disappointed.
• 22:07
  And also for Falcon 9, we've got, as Kook covered over the
• 22:11
  weekend, based off of our diligence, we've got quite a few
• 22:14
  of those lined up. And so as long as we get that
• 22:18
  production cadence going, which I think the company feels pretty
• 22:21
  confident of, skies are clear, man.
• 22:24
  Like we're, we're at that point of escape velocity.
• 22:28
  And yeah, and, and I think all these disclosures are, are, are
• 22:34
  going to be rocket fuel, right? Because now it, it's funny
• 22:38
  there, there's like this, there's this bear who I won't, I
• 22:43
  won't call him out by name, but this guy who supposedly did, who
• 22:46
  helped design the, the directed device service for Echostar,
• 22:51
  which is now defunct. But he was claiming that his
• 22:55
  design was better and that Starlink is better.
• 22:57
  And it's, it's just funny 'cause like clearly he's a, he's a paid
• 23:01
  consultant from Biosat. But yeah, you have all these
• 23:04
  detractors and sometimes it's hard to kind of parse through
• 23:06
  the noise. But when you have days like this
• 23:09
  where the company is delivering real KPIs, yeah, just makes you
• 23:14
  feel good. So anyway, I'll, I'll pause
• 23:17
  there and I'll conclude the space, but I just wanted to
• 23:20
  fire, fire this up. I think in in summary, the block
• 23:25
  one, our previous generation satellite has achieved 99
• 23:28
  megabits per second. Block 2 it is targeting, you
• 23:33
  know, they they've disclosed nearly double that.
• 23:34
  So let's say 200 megabits and that doesn't include the
• 23:38
  eventual mid band constellation, which will leverage Legato and S
• 23:41
  band spectrum. So Catsy will probably have a, a
• 23:44
  better perspective of what the performance characteristics of
• 23:47
  what that satellite will be. And then then moving on to the
• 23:52
  the Block 4 satellites, which will be C band, which will give
• 23:55
  you a lot more data throughput. And so, yeah, a tremendous,
• 23:59
  tremendous disclosure today. This makes me even more excited,
• 24:02
  which is kind of dangerous for the Q1 update, but I think we
• 24:07
  have a lot to be excited about. And as I mentioned before, I'm,
• 24:12
  I'm making, I'm hoping that my schedule is clear for mid June,
• 24:17
  mid to probably second-half June for the next launch.
• 24:21
  And I think you know, from little birdies, I think people
• 24:25
  should be clearing the calendars for early part of July for the
• 24:28
  for the second batch of launch because I think if things go
• 24:32
  according to plan, that could be in the cards.
• 24:34
  So, so we'll see anyone. Anyway, thanks everyone for
• 24:38
  joining and we'll talk again soon.
• 24:40
  Take care. Thanks for listening to the AST
• 24:50
  Space Mobile podcast. If you enjoyed this episode and
• 24:54
  you'd like to help support the podcast, please share it with
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  others, post about it on social media, or leave a rating and
• 25:00
  review. To catch all the latest news
• 25:02
  about AST Space Mobile, make sure to subscribe.
• 25:06
  Thanks again and I'll see you next time.
• 25:12
  We're doing something very, very big and I think with this
• 25:14
  technology we can really affect billion lives.
• 25:17
  AST Space Global is the only company that has proven
• 25:21
  technology to deliver several broadband connectivity directly
• 25:25
  from space to do everyday smartphone.
• 25:28
  People will just basically turn their phone and be seamless,
• 25:31
  regardless of where you are. We don't want the user even to
• 25:34
  know that it's connected by satellite.
• 25:37
  Our role is. To bring this into.
• 25:39
  Reality always important to the animal.
• 25:48
  Listen, Waffles.