Latest / Paramount Wealth Perspectives / Thanksgiving & Guest Speaker (Emily Roland) Announced - 11/25/24

Transcript

Thanksgiving & Guest Speaker (Emily Roland) Announced - 11/25/24 · Paramount Wealth Perspectives

• 0:00
  Intro song game on.
• 0:12
  Hello, everyone.
• 0:13
  Welcome to paramount wealth perspectives.
• 0:15
  Your go-to podcast for the latest updates on global markets and current economic events.
• 0:21
  This is your host, Chris Coyle.
• 0:23
  Each week we strive to bring you expert analysis on market trends, economic shifts.
• 0:28
  And key financial developments from around the world.
• 0:32
  Whether you're an investor business leader.
• 0:34
  Or simply curious about the global economy.
• 0:37
  Our podcast is here to keep you informed and ahead of the curve.
• 0:41
  Now let's dive into the markets and explore what shaping the world of finance today.
• 0:46
  Here with us today.
• 0:47
  We have Scott Tremlett chief investment officer and managing partner at paramount associates, wealth management.
• 0:53
  Scott.
• 0:54
  Looking back to last week.
• 0:56
  What are some major events you would like to highlight?
• 0:59
  Thanks, Chris.
• 1:00
  Us stocks were higher last week.
• 1:03
  Bouncing back from the previous week's losses.
• 1:06
  Big tech.
• 1:07
  Was mixed and the equal weight S and P 500 outperformed the official index.
• 1:13
  Illustrating a broadening of markets in the U S.
• 1:17
  Consumer staples led markets last week.
• 1:20
  Headline by Walmart.
• 1:22
  Followed by materials, real estate and utilities.
• 1:25
  The dollar strengthened and interest rates were mixed as the short end rows with changes in the fed rate.
• 1:32
  Cut expectations.
• 1:34
  Futures are now implying almost a 50% chance that the fed does not cut in December.
• 1:40
  And the tenure dropped with worsening conflicts abroad.
• 1:44
  Us manufacturing did rise slightly, but continues to stay in contraction territory.
• 1:51
  Services in the U S gain strength and came in above expectations.
• 1:56
  Private sector output in the U S rose to its highest level since first quarter 2022.
• 2:02
  Housing starts dropped in October, led by fewer starts in the south and the Northeast.
• 2:08
  It's possible.
• 2:09
  We are seeing hurricane effects there.
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  As existing home sales jumped above consensus.
• 2:15
  For the first year over year increase since July of 2021.
• 2:19
  The university of Michigan's index of consumer sentiment.
• 2:23
  Increased for the fourth straight month.
• 2:25
  They feel the November number was largely influenced by an uptick in sentiment amongst Republicans, since the election.
• 2:33
  Europe seems to be missing its marks.
• 2:35
  And once again, disappointed investors.
• 2:38
  With below consensus, composite PMI.
• 2:41
  We are also seeing caution in the UK, both on the business capital expenditures.
• 2:46
  And retail spending.
• 2:48
  Well, thanks Scott for walking us through what happened around the global markets last week.
• 2:54
  What about what happened with earnings?
• 2:56
  As for earnings, Chris, we are 95% of the way through the S and P 503rd quarter earning season.
• 3:03
  And nine more firms are reporting this week.
• 3:06
  Overall.
• 3:07
  Earnings growth rate for the third quarter stands at 5.8% versus the 4.3% expected.
• 3:14
  However earnings growth, revenue, growth, sales expectations, and the strength of the beets are falling below historical averages.
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  Even the video who did beat on sales.
• 3:28
  Underwhelmed the next quarters revenue guidance.
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  Overall.
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  Earnings sales and revenues.
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  Are all slowing.
• 3:37
  Thanks, Scott.
• 3:38
  Last week you had mentioned, there were some reads on the us consumer.
• 3:42
  What exactly did you see there?
• 3:44
  Last week.
• 3:45
  We did gather some insights, Chris.
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  Starting with earnings.
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  Walmart, TJ Maxx, Ross stores and gap, all rallied.
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  With better than expected earnings reports.
• 3:57
  On the flip side, target missed on most key metrics with weakness in their higher margin.
• 4:03
  Discretionary.
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  And stating that consumers were becoming more promotion seeking.
• 4:08
  We also received information on the upcoming holiday season expectations.
• 4:13
  It looks like this year, holiday shopping will be spearheaded by the millennials.
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  According to trans union.
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  63% of millennials, many with children of their own at this point.
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  So they plan to spend the same or more than they did last year.
• 4:28
  Increases in income and expectations that wages will continue to increase.
• 4:33
  I seem to be offsetting any changes in the price of goods.
• 4:37
  In fact, even as credit card debt now tops$1.1 trillion.
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  How they shoppers expect to spend just over$1,750.
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  Up 8% from last year, according to Deloitte, how they retail survey.
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  Most shoppers, nearly 75%.
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  Use credit cards to buy holiday gifts.
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  Believe it or not.
• 5:01
  Nearly 30% of holiday shoppers that were surveyed in September by NerdWallet.
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  Had not yet paid off the gifts they purchased last year.
• 5:12
  I won't even get into installment arrangements, like buy now pay later.
• 5:17
  But I did see a report.
• 5:19
  That was expected that nearly$1 billion of new by now.
• 5:23
  I pay later.
• 5:24
  Arrangements are expected on cyber Monday alone.
• 5:28
  Well, as you mentioned, Scott, it seems like the us consumer is poised to spend more during this holiday season.
• 5:34
  So what exactly does this mean for the rest of this year and even into next year?
• 5:40
  Remember when I said that the third quarter earnings growth number stands at 5.8% so far, Chris.
• 5:46
  Here's another, believe it or not a statistic fourth quarter earnings.
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  Are expected to more than double.
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  To 12% growth.
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  If 12% is the number.
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  That will mark the largest year over year earnings growth rate since the end of 2021.
• 6:04
  Much like back in 2021.
• 6:07
  Most of this expected growth comes from weak year-over-year comps, particularly in financials and pharmaceuticals.
• 6:15
  Financials and banking are expected to be the largest contributors to earnings growth for the fourth quarter.
• 6:21
  As for 2025, many of the biggest names out there are calling for the S and P 500 to end 2025.
• 6:29
  10% higher than where we are now.
• 6:32
  Today alone.
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  I've read three major publications.
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  All stating that same number.
• 6:38
  We will see.
• 6:39
  As some of the earnings expectations seem pretty frothy to me in the face of revenues and sales dropping.
• 6:46
  As I say this, the other side of my brain is reminding me to remember that the us consumer is still driving almost 80% of the growth in the U S economy.
• 6:57
  Thanks.
• 6:57
  Scott all continued to check in with you, whether or not the U S economy is able to stay in line with the 2021 us earnings growth.
• 7:07
  What are we looking at this week?
• 7:09
  This week, Chris, we have two home price numbers.
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  We have new home sales.
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  And the conference board's consumer confidence index all on Tuesday.
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  Wednesday, we have a us GDP print.
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  Jobless claims.
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  Pending home sales and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge.
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  PCE.
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  Oversees this week.
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  We have the bank of Korea announcement where they're expected to leave rates on change.
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  Canada India, Switzerland and France GDP on Friday.
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  And the monthly manufacturing numbers from around the world.
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  Start on Saturday.
• 7:45
  Eurozone economic sentiment is on Thursday, but hopefully none of you are paying attention to that.
• 7:51
  And instead you're spending the day with your families for Thanksgiving.
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  Remember you can't control everything.
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  But you can control being thankful for the things and people.
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  That you have in your life.
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  Oh, yeah.
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  And go pack.
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  Go.
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  Well go Packo.
• 8:09
  And if you're from Colorado, Then go Broncos.
• 8:12
  Now I would like to announce our first guest speaker on the paramount wealth perspectives podcast for next week.
• 8:20
  Emily Roland.
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  She is the chief investment strategist at John Hancock.
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  Emily is frequently featured on CNBC and Bloomberg TV.
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  She is often quoted in the wall street journal.
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  Barons and the associated press.
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  Emily is a highly rated keynote speaker.
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  And we can't wait to hear what she has to say.
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  For now stay informed.
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  Stay ahead.
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  And join us next week for more key updates shaping the global economy.
• 8:47
  Thank you and everyone else for tuning in.
• 8:50
  And we hope you have an absolutely fantastic Thanksgiving.