Latest / CRYPTO 101 / Fed Rate Cut Decision LIVE: Market Reactions and Macro Analysis for Crypto and TradFi

Transcript

Fed Rate Cut Decision LIVE: Market Reactions and Macro Analysis for Crypto and TradFi · CRYPTO 101

• 0:06
  [SPEAKER_08]: Alright everybody welcome back to the crypto one-on-one podcast special edition here It's the crypto one-on podcast presented by Gemini your bridge to the future of money But we are doing a special episode today a little bit of a market update You see on the screen there.
• 0:21
  [SPEAKER_08]: We've got Brian.
• 0:21
  [SPEAKER_08]: It's Brian and Tiva.
• 0:22
  [SPEAKER_08]: We're gonna go over one
• 0:23
  [SPEAKER_08]: What is going on in the markets because breaking news, the Fed has cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
• 0:29
  [SPEAKER_08]: If you want to sound fancy and you want to sound cool, Brian, you just say 25 Bips, you say Bips.
• 0:35
  [SPEAKER_08]: It makes you feel like you work on Wall Street.
• 0:37
  [SPEAKER_08]: It makes you feel like you're in the know.
• 0:38
  [SPEAKER_08]: 25 Bips, we're going to go over what the Fed's doing.
• 0:41
  [SPEAKER_08]: We're going to cover the live press conference of Drone Powell that happens usually right around 230.
• 0:47
  [SPEAKER_08]: So 20 minutes, 25 minutes from now.
• 0:49
  [SPEAKER_08]: In the meantime, we're going to go over the rate cut of 25 Bips.
• 0:52
  [SPEAKER_08]: and going to see the reaction in the markets and then we're going to dive into the crypto markets as well and kind of give you a mid week rundown.
• 0:58
  [SPEAKER_08]: If you guys were here earlier in the week with Brendan and I, we told you we were going to try and do this.
• 1:03
  [SPEAKER_08]: We are here for you.
• 1:03
  [SPEAKER_08]: This is what we're calling a for you show.
• 1:06
  [SPEAKER_08]: We're here for you.
• 1:07
  [SPEAKER_08]: We're short staff this week.
• 1:08
  [SPEAKER_08]: Brian's been doing double duty, working hard.
• 1:11
  [SPEAKER_08]: I'm doing double duty.
• 1:12
  [SPEAKER_08]: I'm also moving.
• 1:13
  [SPEAKER_08]: I'm in the middle of a move right now.
• 1:15
  [SPEAKER_08]: Brian saw it in the background.
• 1:16
  [SPEAKER_08]: My, my poor mothers here helping me.
• 1:18
  [SPEAKER_08]: We got movers here.
• 1:19
  [SPEAKER_08]: We've got plumbers here, but that's no excuse on Fed day Brian.
• 1:22
  [SPEAKER_08]: We have to get here and give something for the people.
• 1:25
  [SPEAKER_08]: We love everybody joining us.
• 1:26
  [SPEAKER_08]: We've got comedy video.
• 1:28
  [SPEAKER_08]: We've got Mike Surei, Mike Surei high from Poland.
• 1:31
  [SPEAKER_08]: God, what a way to, to start the stream when you're getting a hello from Poland.
• 1:35
  [SPEAKER_08]: But Brian, how are you and how are the markets looking?
• 1:39
  [SPEAKER_10]: Yeah, Mark, it's the sun to bounce back a little bit here.
• 1:42
  [SPEAKER_10]: We got somebody else coming from London.
• 1:43
  [SPEAKER_10]: I mean, we're just We're just not doing everybody in the world.
• 1:48
  [SPEAKER_10]: Shout out.
• 1:49
  [SPEAKER_10]: Hey, I love it.
• 1:50
  [SPEAKER_10]: You made me laugh whenever you said the 25 BIPs that we've never talked about that, but any of my buddies are like financial advisors Wherever I'm talking I make sure to like they were expecting 25 BIPs.
• 2:01
  [SPEAKER_10]: So I sound like a little bit cooler out there.
• 2:03
  [SPEAKER_10]: Yeah, you nailed that
• 2:05
  [SPEAKER_08]: Yeah, you got to do the bips.
• 2:06
  [SPEAKER_08]: You got to do the bips.
• 2:07
  [SPEAKER_08]: I'm trying to feel cool today.
• 2:08
  [SPEAKER_08]: I got I don't know why I just I'm moving there's all this stuff everywhere.
• 2:11
  [SPEAKER_08]: I saw these cool orange glasses and I was like, you know what?
• 2:14
  [SPEAKER_08]: The future's bright.
• 2:15
  [SPEAKER_08]: Let's toss them on.
• 2:16
  [SPEAKER_08]: But Brian will start there.
• 2:18
  [SPEAKER_08]: We got we just got the official announcement.
• 2:19
  [SPEAKER_08]: It is 25 basis points.
• 2:22
  [SPEAKER_08]: That was, I mean, again, we talked about polymarket.
• 2:24
  [SPEAKER_08]: Maybe we'll pull up some odds from there in a little bit for the press conference.
• 2:27
  [SPEAKER_08]: Have some fun.
• 2:28
  [SPEAKER_08]: But it was
• 2:34
  [SPEAKER_08]: As thought for the markets and a little bit kind of a bounce off the bottom it looked like Bitcoin kind of jumps up let's pull up we'll pull up coin market cap here to start people and so again just to cover the rundown here we have a sheet we're going to go through the sheet and hit it until we see Jerome pal pop on and then I'm going to switch over the broadcast we can watch that comment eight.
• 2:52
  [SPEAKER_08]: And again, if you're in the chat, especially, you know, towards the back end of this episode when the press conference goes on, we'd love to talk to you.
• 2:59
  [SPEAKER_08]: You know, this is more of a fun environment to go back and forth and just, you know, have a little bit of a rundown per se.
• 3:05
  [SPEAKER_08]: But let me pull up coin market cap and Brian, let me, let me just pick your brain.
• 3:09
  [SPEAKER_08]: What are you seeing in the markets today?
• 3:10
  [SPEAKER_08]: Because you are definitely have been more plugged in than I have.
• 3:14
  [SPEAKER_10]: Yeah, I mean, we've been, we've, we've, we've continued.
• 3:16
  [SPEAKER_10]: We talked about some past rundowns that we've been in this little bit of a chop zone from like 108 to 115.
• 3:22
  [SPEAKER_10]: Uh, it does feel like we're still chopping this 25 bips was pretty much baked in my opinion.
• 3:29
  [SPEAKER_10]: But we're getting a little bit of a pop.
• 3:30
  [SPEAKER_10]: I'll write before the FOMC meeting here.
• 3:34
  [SPEAKER_10]: I do believe whatever stance Powell, like how is he getting some more dovish, he's getting some more hawkish, is going to definitely probably affect these prices slightly.
• 3:44
  [SPEAKER_10]: But I don't know, man, it feels strong.
• 3:47
  [SPEAKER_10]: I say this all the time.
• 3:48
  [SPEAKER_10]: I'm a permabare, bickling's over $110,000, and I think the,
• 3:54
  [SPEAKER_10]: Q4 we're going to run even harder.
• 3:57
  [SPEAKER_10]: The 25 bips everybody in their mother kind of knew that was coming and but we're seeing a nice little pop here nothing nothing to complain about
• 4:05
  [SPEAKER_08]: Maggie Mayson, don't worry too, though.
• 4:07
  [SPEAKER_08]: You're always cool.
• 4:08
  [SPEAKER_08]: I was like, that's way too kind.
• 4:10
  [SPEAKER_08]: Way too kind on a Wednesday here.
• 4:13
  [SPEAKER_08]: But yeah, we're in the chop zone.
• 4:15
  [SPEAKER_08]: And I think the way we kind of have always talked about these.
• 4:18
  [SPEAKER_08]: And I stand true to this is the presser means more than the cut.
• 4:22
  [SPEAKER_08]: Unless there's some crazy surprise, right?
• 4:23
  [SPEAKER_08]: So the market is baked in and the betting markets have told us 25 bips.
• 4:27
  [SPEAKER_08]: That's what we're getting.
• 4:28
  [SPEAKER_08]: Now, the most important part is the presser.
• 4:30
  [SPEAKER_08]: and it's kind of how Jerome Powell makes a statement and then especially the questions kind of what does he give what does he give anything he's usually pretty stone cold for the most part except for exactly a year ago it would have been a year ago I believe in December that December meeting he threw out an absolute you know red flag and scared everybody in the markets tanked and he ruined the Santa Claus rally and that was that was a very sad event for the bulls
• 4:57
  [SPEAKER_08]: But normally, he's pretty stoic and doesn't give too much away, but people pepper him.
• 5:01
  [SPEAKER_08]: Like, what are you seeing on the economy?
• 5:03
  [SPEAKER_08]: Is there any fear of recession?
• 5:05
  [SPEAKER_08]: And what are you seeing in tariffs?
• 5:06
  [SPEAKER_08]: Because again, they're getting all this data.
• 5:08
  [SPEAKER_08]: They claim to be a forward-looking Fed, but they're also a backwards-looking, when it comes to this data.
• 5:14
  [SPEAKER_08]: And then we can, you know, as we covered on this program all the time.
• 5:17
  [SPEAKER_08]: Some of this data is just so outdated.
• 5:20
  [SPEAKER_08]: We pulled up true flesh in the other day, you know, somebody that we've had on the show before to kind of get, get, give people a different look into all these data points.
• 5:28
  [SPEAKER_08]: But just looking at my screen, the, the, the two year, the 10 year, seems to be going up.
• 5:34
  [SPEAKER_08]: a little higher, which again, it's an initial reaction of what the markets are doing we'll have to see what Fed Chair Powell says, but anything, but before we move on to crypto specific stuff, Brian, any macro thoughts before we dive into our sheet?
• 5:49
  [SPEAKER_10]: Yeah, not enough too crazy other than it looks like the China U.S. tariffs are starting to de-escalate quite a bit.
• 5:56
  [SPEAKER_10]: I think I read a headline that soybean traders are absolutely forked right now because they got a pretty big order, probably a sign of a good faith by China in the upcoming meeting.
• 6:10
  [SPEAKER_10]: I think we've talked about this quite a bit.
• 6:12
  [SPEAKER_10]: There's been a lot of posturing, a lot of people going back and forth about these tariffs.
• 6:16
  [SPEAKER_10]: Hopefully it all works out and we don't have a more China tariff scares, but it's looking like it's going to be some positive news.
• 6:24
  [SPEAKER_08]: Yeah, I just, I definitely just replied to, I saw that, I'll pull this up, it was, you know, trying to buy three USB and car goes ahead of Trump G meeting and it's just you get the beans, beans for you, beans, beans, beans.
• 6:38
  [SPEAKER_08]: So Trump and G are planned to meet tomorrow.
• 6:41
  [SPEAKER_08]: And again, if that comes out, um, again, a lot of that's posturing and photo ops and there's there's more back deals stuff getting done than what's going to happen tomorrow in person.
• 6:53
  [SPEAKER_08]: But if that's a positive event with a good presser, which, you know, this administration loves good press, um, yeah, I don't know.
• 7:01
  [SPEAKER_08]: That could be a catalyst.
• 7:02
  [SPEAKER_08]: We're cutting rates.
• 7:03
  [SPEAKER_08]: We're in the zone.
• 7:04
  [SPEAKER_08]: So what's going to break it out of us?
• 7:05
  [SPEAKER_08]: That's what we're all trying to find out and covering for you.
• 7:07
  [SPEAKER_08]: weekly on the show.
• 7:09
  [SPEAKER_08]: I did just see something.
• 7:11
  [SPEAKER_08]: Let's pull up this.
• 7:12
  [SPEAKER_08]: We're live.
• 7:12
  [SPEAKER_08]: We're clicking around live.
• 7:13
  [SPEAKER_08]: You're folks Let's see where the fellows are of the end quantitative tightening on December 1st We heard that I was showing I when I held up my phone to the mic before we went live You heard that so that's again the end of quantitative tightening what what are we doing when we end tightening?
• 7:29
  [SPEAKER_08]: We begin easing so a lot of people are saying again the financial economists are saying actually where we are right now with rates and how everything's going
• 7:37
  [SPEAKER_08]: We're actually at basically where we're tight slash neutral at best.
• 7:42
  [SPEAKER_08]: And so we're heading into this easing cycle.
• 7:45
  [SPEAKER_08]: Again, it's a little above my pay grade when it comes to the economics of it.
• 7:49
  [SPEAKER_08]: But the history shows when we start easing and you know, the Fed starts working and doing its balance sheet, asset prices go higher in that's gold that's real estate and obviously stocks and crypto.
• 8:00
  [SPEAKER_08]: Um, but we'll focus on the crypto part, but just to check in, uh, I wanted to get your take on gold because we covered this, uh, with Brendan the last two shows, uh, so any thoughts on you as like I put up a chart.
• 8:12
  [SPEAKER_08]: It was like, hey, when gold plunges, you know, Bitcoin seems to rally.
• 8:15
  [SPEAKER_08]: I mean, we don't have a subscription to Bloomberg.
• 8:18
  [SPEAKER_08]: Uh, we do know that, you know, gold has been ticking below.
• 8:22
  [SPEAKER_08]: Let's see here five day, you know, kind of bouncing under that $4,000 level.
• 8:26
  [SPEAKER_08]: So anything you're taking away from that, Brian?
• 8:28
  [SPEAKER_10]: Yeah, I mean, you know, I'm still a big fan of gold.
• 8:30
  [SPEAKER_10]: It's a nice hedge against the dollar, a bigger fan of digital gold, good old Bitcoin.
• 8:36
  [SPEAKER_10]: Open up that next tweet from Tom Lee when he compares when when gold kind of has a pullback.
• 8:42
  [SPEAKER_08]: And we see Bitcoin kind of surging up while we do want to credit Tom Lee, Brian.
• 8:47
  [SPEAKER_08]: We were we were showing this on the program last week.
• 8:50
  [SPEAKER_08]: So that's 20 years.
• 8:52
  [SPEAKER_08]: I'm just saying hey listen the student has become the teacher we gave this just for a little a little like red it were credits to Brendan was Brendan was giving me my flowers on Monday but we covered this third what is it Thursday last week I brought this up I was like hey guys just a heads up when gold rolls over sometimes you know big coin starts to rip
• 9:11
  [SPEAKER_08]: And then, yeah, I guess Tom saw, well, Tom's a friend of the program, obviously.
• 9:16
  [SPEAKER_08]: And I guess he listened to the rundown over the weekend, and then got this chart and made his thread here.
• 9:20
  [SPEAKER_08]: But yeah, break this down.
• 9:21
  [SPEAKER_08]: We just want your opinion as well.
• 9:23
  [SPEAKER_10]: Yeah, shout out, Tom.
• 9:24
  [SPEAKER_10]: It's good to have you in the chat here.
• 9:26
  [SPEAKER_10]: But, as you can see, gold tops.
• 9:30
  [SPEAKER_10]: It's topped in 2020, 2025.
• 9:31
  [SPEAKER_10]: And then right below, what happens when gold tops?
• 9:35
  [SPEAKER_10]: It looks like a Bitcoin goes on this parabolic move.
• 9:39
  [SPEAKER_10]: Just in time for the Santa Claus rally, it's been an underwhelming uptober, but some unexpected things in the macro, of course, things aren't always perfect, but again, I'm so bullish on everything that's happening with this administration and the crypto market and stable coins, all this integration with Visa and Western Union and Sloan ETFs, it's the time to be paying attention right now.
• 10:06
  [SPEAKER_10]: and please I only hope that that Bitcoin chart looks like that for 2025 with Tom Lee tweeted.
• 10:13
  [SPEAKER_08]: Yeah, yeah, and I saw that you put on their bitmind buying more, which we did cover the other day with Brendan.
• 10:19
  [SPEAKER_08]: They now have 2.8% of the Ethereum supply, which is super exciting.
• 10:25
  [SPEAKER_08]: One final point on the Fed here, and then we're going to really dive into a
• 10:29
  [SPEAKER_08]: you know, just kind of our sheet here.
• 10:31
  [SPEAKER_08]: I saw this get put out and we heard this when we're listening to the TV before we went live was again there was there was a descent.
• 10:38
  [SPEAKER_08]: So there are two descents.
• 10:39
  [SPEAKER_08]: Somebody wanted no cuts and then somebody wanted 50 basis points.
• 10:43
  [SPEAKER_08]: Now the 50 basis point has been there for a couple now.
• 10:46
  [SPEAKER_08]: There's been always one Fed governor for the last couple that have one of the 50 basis points.
• 10:51
  [SPEAKER_08]: Scott Bessant was even calling for that as well.
• 10:54
  [SPEAKER_08]: And again, with the administration where it's going, the next kind of chapter after Chair Powell is going to be that Trump is going to get to kind of basically usher in the new Fed governor.
• 11:06
  [SPEAKER_08]: So it'll be interesting.
• 11:08
  [SPEAKER_08]: We kind of covered that a little bit, but that's going to be a 2026 narrative that's really going to pick up.
• 11:13
  [SPEAKER_08]: But until then, it looks like there's a little bit of a split decision there in the Fed, which is always interesting to keep tabs on.
• 11:21
  [SPEAKER_08]: Um, so let's, let's do a little run that.
• 11:22
  [SPEAKER_08]: We got two 15s.
• 11:23
  [SPEAKER_08]: We got about 15 minutes to kill.
• 11:26
  [SPEAKER_08]: Uh, and then we can obviously take some questions in the chat.
• 11:29
  [SPEAKER_08]: We appreciate everybody being here.
• 11:31
  [SPEAKER_08]: Rob's here from Kenna Kenosha, Wisconsin, on Wisconsin East Coast Lobsters here from Canada.
• 11:38
  [SPEAKER_08]: Comedy, video, Matt's here.
• 11:41
  [SPEAKER_08]: Matt's ready for the BTC breakout.
• 11:43
  [SPEAKER_08]: Drop where you are, guys.
• 11:44
  [SPEAKER_08]: If you're new, uh, welcome.
• 11:46
  [SPEAKER_08]: That bottom right, give us a subscribe and toss it a thumbs up.
• 11:49
  [SPEAKER_08]: We appreciate everybody kind of being here on our in-promptu episode slash live stream.
• 11:55
  [SPEAKER_08]: But let's do some quick hitters.
• 11:57
  [SPEAKER_08]: So in video in video, it's five trillion in market cap overnight.
• 12:02
  [SPEAKER_08]: Is that the first time a stock is hit five trillion blind?
• 12:05
  [SPEAKER_08]: You know, sorry to put you on the hot seat there.
• 12:07
  [SPEAKER_10]: I'm not sure off the top of my head, but it's a massive number.
• 12:10
  [SPEAKER_08]: Yeah.
• 12:11
  [SPEAKER_08]: It's great.
• 12:11
  [SPEAKER_10]: It's only, it's only good for probably our bags in the long run.
• 12:15
  [SPEAKER_08]: couldn't be, couldn't be more human there that is a massive lover.
• 12:21
  [SPEAKER_08]: Oh, this is a lot of ETFs.
• 12:23
  [SPEAKER_08]: Uh, our, what's it?
• 12:25
  [SPEAKER_08]: Bit wise ETF crushes expectations with record breaking first day.
• 12:29
  [SPEAKER_08]: This is what this bit wise ETF actually looks really, um, really exciting.
• 12:34
  [SPEAKER_08]: So what what kind of stuff did you learn about that?
• 12:37
  [SPEAKER_08]: I actually think I tweeted something so I'm going to go try and pull that up.
• 12:40
  [SPEAKER_08]: But what what
• 12:43
  [SPEAKER_10]: Yeah, I mean, it's not a black rock salana ETF.
• 12:45
  [SPEAKER_10]: I mean, that's the, that's the, that's the big daddy that we want to get involved with the salana ETF and we'll, we'll eventually see that, but these, they're not going to be able to keep their.
• 12:56
  [SPEAKER_10]: uh, keep their butts in the seats here with all of this volume.
• 13:00
  [SPEAKER_10]: And Solani, you have breaks, 20, 25 record for launch in their first day volume.
• 13:06
  [SPEAKER_10]: So some huge numbers there.
• 13:08
  [SPEAKER_10]: I'm a Solana fan.
• 13:09
  [SPEAKER_10]: I'm a big fan of it.
• 13:10
  [SPEAKER_10]: I think the ETF is going to bring massive support to the price, to the network, bring more attention to the developers and networks building on Solana.
• 13:20
  [SPEAKER_10]: And it's just a key platform and crypto.
• 13:26
  [SPEAKER_08]: Yeah, that's awesome.
• 13:28
  [SPEAKER_08]: And I'm working to get our friends from Bitwise back on the program for the end of the year.
• 13:33
  [SPEAKER_08]: We always like to do an end of the year show with them.
• 13:37
  [SPEAKER_08]: We usually touch base with them at least twice, sometimes three times a year.
• 13:40
  [SPEAKER_08]: My thought was to try to get a couple of them on this time.
• 13:42
  [SPEAKER_08]: Maybe have like a bitwise round table with Bryce and Brendan.
• 13:45
  [SPEAKER_08]: I thought that could be really fun.
• 13:47
  [SPEAKER_08]: Quick thoughts before I go run down the the tweet that I pulled up.
• 13:52
  [SPEAKER_08]: We got Scott from Toronto got Canada's in the house today Brian.
• 13:56
  [SPEAKER_08]: Yeah, let's crypto with Kelly Springfield Oregon Maggie May Mike jaker when make rib from jaker.
• 14:03
  [SPEAKER_08]: That's hilarious when the crib.
• 14:04
  [SPEAKER_08]: It's actually an honestly good question.
• 14:06
  [SPEAKER_08]: So let's look at this beast so because I thought the coolest thing was is they're trying to maximizing again that the staking aspect which again for a traditional stock people will be very intriguing for them to learn like oh wow a 7% quote unquote dividend would be amazing to get that into the ETF.
• 14:22
  [SPEAKER_08]: I think that's going to attract a lot of people to educate about this.
• 14:26
  [SPEAKER_08]: 0% fees obviously a little asterisk there limited time only but they uh the bit wise Bitcoin ETF was also the lowest fee when it launched i think that was a good again marketing strategy for them um let's see potential salana is headed into the mainstream and we think this is just getting started we've covered this when we talked about kind of the Ethereum ETF and how
• 14:48
  [SPEAKER_08]: You know, Solana had the narrative and then now Ethereum has had the narrative for the back half of the year and again, you know, Solana was the price action wasn't really doing that well and with these ETFs going live a lot of people are saying, hey, the kind of the playbooks there.
• 15:03
  [SPEAKER_08]: Right.
• 15:03
  [SPEAKER_08]: I mean, who, you know, the Tom Lee is obviously then a huge catalyst for Ethereum with its bit-mind and then S-bed.
• 15:09
  [SPEAKER_08]: So so how many people out of the woodwork, what companies are going to start doing a true Solana Treasury strategy?
• 15:16
  [SPEAKER_08]: Is there some Wall Street veteran that has the backing of traditional Wall Street that's going to come out and do this?
• 15:23
  [SPEAKER_08]: Is there a company that might do this?
• 15:24
  [SPEAKER_08]: That's going to be something to look for?
• 15:26
  [SPEAKER_08]: But yeah, I think, you know,
• 15:27
  [SPEAKER_08]: It's a floodgate event, but what we learned from the Bitcoin ETF and the Ethereum ETF is it's not like it's not these go live and then the price rockets 50% in a week or two.
• 15:37
  [SPEAKER_08]: It takes time.
• 15:40
  [SPEAKER_10]: I love this salon of ETF, but what I love even more is that McRib comment from Jay, because I don't know if everybody knows whenever the McRib gets announced, Bitcoin just goes parabolicly bullish and never they take it away.
• 15:54
  [SPEAKER_10]: We always get it.
• 15:56
  [SPEAKER_10]: Bitcoin bearish so I'm actually looking online to find out when the mick rib is released because I'm just absolutely fired up in a serious note.
• 16:06
  [SPEAKER_10]: This Bitcoin ETF, I mean, Solana ETF is huge news.
• 16:11
  [SPEAKER_10]: I think it's something we've been all waiting for and we're going to get more players.
• 16:15
  [SPEAKER_10]: bringing in more ETFs, probably other crypto's like XRP and, you know, the list goes on with other people being mentioned with these ETFs.
• 16:25
  [SPEAKER_10]: But this salon owns big.
• 16:26
  [SPEAKER_10]: I've been waiting for for for for quite a long time.
• 16:29
  [SPEAKER_10]: So love this a bit wise, make it happen.
• 16:31
  [SPEAKER_08]: 100% and to stick with bitwise and just again credit credit to me I are well firstly apologies because I was running around before we went live here and it was asking Brian to do the sheet and I was a little miscombobulated but credit to me for just tweeting out a bunch of things that I knew I wanted to talk about because we can keep pulling up some of these tweets from the crypto one-on-one podcast on x if you are on x you need to follow at crypto one-on-one podcast if you're not on x as always we highly suggest you join because that's
• 17:01
  [SPEAKER_08]: financial crypto news breaks.
• 17:03
  [SPEAKER_08]: So here, another one for Bitwise, banks are buying in crypto adoptions by institution.
• 17:08
  [SPEAKER_08]: And I tweet out, I'm like, listen, study what the banks are doing and then make your own decisions.
• 17:13
  [SPEAKER_08]: So I have no personal financial advice for anybody, but the banks that have owned the financial space for the last, you know, what, 50 to 100 years, you know, you might want to study what they're doing.
• 17:22
  [SPEAKER_08]: So, let's see here.
• 17:23
  [SPEAKER_08]: We got crypto trading and custody, private crypto funds, crypto ETPs, crypto-enable payments, and tokenization.
• 17:31
  [SPEAKER_08]: Let's see, is there anybody that's doing all of them?
• 17:34
  [SPEAKER_08]: Interestingly enough, there is.
• 17:35
  [SPEAKER_08]: There's only one.
• 17:37
  [SPEAKER_08]: It's Jamie diamond.
• 17:39
  [SPEAKER_08]: It's Jamie Morgan Chase just absolutely classic from our guy friend of the program Jamie diamond just a huge crypto nut.
• 17:48
  [SPEAKER_08]: He's such a crypto fanatic that he would go on like the press stores as we covered the last couple weeks and you know saying it's a scam and hating on Bitcoin and crypto
• 17:56
  [SPEAKER_08]: uh... all wall building the crypto rails to do all five of these and then you can see on their bank of america black rock uh... the london stock exchange master card Morgan Stanley these are all visas down their wells far with these are all names that we all know uh... and in their getting involved in crypto in some former fashion most of them doing multiple ways so a nice little study here in a nice little summary chart by bit was
• 18:22
  [SPEAKER_10]: smart money is buying crypto or adopting crypto, I should say.
• 18:27
  [SPEAKER_10]: And again, that goes hand-in-hand like, why are we seeing prices not absolutely surge?
• 18:33
  [SPEAKER_10]: This is just my own thoughts, and some people have mentioned this on the timeline as well.
• 18:38
  [SPEAKER_10]: There are probably some OG crypto whales out there with hundreds of millions and billions of dollars that follow the four-year cycle and that, you know, they're selling some of their positions, which is perfectly normal and natural.
• 18:52
  [SPEAKER_10]: even more bullish because it just continues to distribute Bitcoin, you know, to smart money, to more retail traders, and they can't sell forever.
• 19:03
  [SPEAKER_10]: And I think this is, I don't know, I'm, I'm just absolutely primed for this next leg up.
• 19:09
  [SPEAKER_10]: And I think Q4 is going to be really something special.
• 19:13
  [SPEAKER_10]: And but you nailed it with this tweet, just what are the banks doing?
• 19:16
  [SPEAKER_10]: What are they looking at?
• 19:17
  [SPEAKER_10]: We see major crypto adoption by institutions.
• 19:20
  [SPEAKER_10]: They're not doing it for
• 19:22
  [SPEAKER_10]: 10% three month hold.
• 19:24
  [SPEAKER_10]: This is a long term here.
• 19:26
  [SPEAKER_10]: This is the future of finance and I mean that.
• 19:29
  [SPEAKER_08]: Yeah, and again, it's you got to you got to watch what they do and not what they say, especially with the names on this list.
• 19:37
  [SPEAKER_08]: I mean, they're, yeah, man.
• 19:39
  [SPEAKER_08]: It's, it's, I mean, that's a list.
• 19:41
  [SPEAKER_08]: Just to see it like that as a visualization.
• 19:43
  [SPEAKER_08]: You know kind of everybody's working on in the background, but to see that really brings it all together.
• 19:47
  [SPEAKER_08]: I saw another thing this week that really caught my eye.
• 19:51
  [SPEAKER_08]: You could you could say you could say this company is the reason that I'm here because my first job ever at a college for those who are not up to date on their Tvo history was IBM people forget that they think I'm just a bar stool guy Brian.
• 20:05
  [SPEAKER_08]: They think I'm just a content guy, but people forget my first job was at IBM Watson, which was the AI unit of IBM.
• 20:21
  [SPEAKER_08]: And now the supercomputers people are saying that IBM has kind of the best kind of legway for some of the supercomputers Because of all the hardware that they've had over the years and then they're consulting company They have such a big flywheel-flect In technology, but did you see this where IBM launches new Bitcoin and crypto services for U.S. institutions?
• 20:41
  [SPEAKER_08]: A digital asset haven and wall for custody and payments for U.S. businesses and governments by year end Did not see big blue
• 20:48
  [SPEAKER_08]: IBM coming out of the woodwork with this because I haven't, you know, since I've been here for years doing kind of the weekly shows and researching, I haven't seen anybody.
• 20:58
  [SPEAKER_08]: I've seen former IBMers and you see former Google and former Amazon people, people from former tech make their way into crypto and come on the show and interact with us.
• 21:08
  [SPEAKER_08]: But not current.
• 21:09
  [SPEAKER_08]: So I thought this was really interesting.
• 21:11
  [SPEAKER_10]: Yeah, it's super interesting.
• 21:12
  [SPEAKER_10]: I mean, it's, hey, IBM Bitcoin, welcome.
• 21:15
  [SPEAKER_10]: It's
• 21:18
  [SPEAKER_08]: It's a headline, I mean, I try, I didn't see any real specifics.
• 21:23
  [SPEAKER_08]: Digital asset, haven't thought custody was interesting, but does that lead to more of that treasury strategy, or like IBM's not a bank?
• 21:35
  [SPEAKER_08]: So then why, why do they want to do custody?
• 21:38
  [SPEAKER_08]: Is it that integration of technology and money management and banking?
• 21:43
  [SPEAKER_08]: Is it the futures IBM going to try and carve out JP Morgan and carve out
• 21:48
  [SPEAKER_08]: You know, bank of America and try to, you know, kind of carve itself as a custody and payments rail.
• 21:55
  [SPEAKER_10]: Yeah, I think that's, I think that's a good look.
• 21:57
  [SPEAKER_10]: There's, there's a lot of ways we could speculate with this potential, um, I don't want to say, partnership of potential movement here within the space, but I don't know.
• 22:07
  [SPEAKER_10]: It's a great headline.
• 22:08
  [SPEAKER_10]: I, I think a lot of these big Fortune 100, Fortune 500 companies, countries, they're getting their hands in the Bitcoin for good reason.
• 22:16
  [SPEAKER_08]: Yeah, I saw it was going to be a managed digital assets across 40 plus blockchains, so I don't thought that was interesting.
• 22:24
  [SPEAKER_08]: A little timeline cleanser here is the drone show from Switzerland where it's the Pac-Man Bitcoin just eating up all the other currencies.
• 22:32
  [SPEAKER_08]: I just want everybody to see that so you could have a little smile, a little palette cleanser there before we jump into after all this bullish news.
• 22:41
  [SPEAKER_08]: You know, we always say like, man, when's the pop going to be, we're ready for the pop, all the bullish news we pull up coin market cap, we were in fear last week, right?
• 22:50
  [SPEAKER_08]: And just to think of this, like this tab here, like all coin season is now lower than November 2022.
• 22:58
  [SPEAKER_08]: Let that sink in folks lower than November 2022.
• 23:01
  [SPEAKER_08]: That was when all of tech, you know, meta in video.
• 23:06
  [SPEAKER_08]: I mean, these were, it was generational buying down there in 22, especially for tech firms.
• 23:11
  [SPEAKER_08]: Obviously, crypto and all coins had, excuse me, had it's dip as well, but are you, are you that scared?
• 23:20
  [SPEAKER_08]: I'm never scared of him.
• 23:23
  [SPEAKER_08]: Probably.
• 23:24
  [SPEAKER_10]: I know you're not from, from what, from the picks you send me.
• 23:28
  [SPEAKER_10]: Is that for any fear over there?
• 23:30
  [SPEAKER_10]: Not a little gamble with my blood, but that's okay.
• 23:32
  [SPEAKER_10]: It's on the right side of things.
• 23:36
  [SPEAKER_08]: So yeah, any thoughts around, again, fear of greed index, always something, you know, it's one of the tools in the toolbox, but for it to dip down to 2022, that feels like almost throwing in the towel.
• 23:48
  [SPEAKER_10]: Yeah, that feels a little bit reactive in the market can be definitely reactive there.
• 23:54
  [SPEAKER_10]: I do think there's some real opportunity here while people are feeling this extreme fear or fear.
• 24:00
  [SPEAKER_10]: There's just real opportunity across the market and that's, you know, that's something we're trying to educate people on every day.
• 24:06
  [SPEAKER_08]: Yeah, and then speaking of education, the prophecy has been fulfilled.
• 24:11
  [SPEAKER_08]: SPX-6900 has hit 6900.
• 24:15
  [SPEAKER_08]: I know this was, yeah, this was something that was early inside the community.
• 24:21
  [SPEAKER_08]: I know that was an absolute rice diamond hand's type of call where, you know, I mean, if you're inside the community and you've heard, you know, how much the percentage was there.
• 24:31
  [SPEAKER_08]: I mean, that was absolute boo-coop box of a winner
• 24:36
  [SPEAKER_08]: But yeah, just absolutely it was always a magnet the prophecy's been fulfilled any any thoughts on on the milestone here
• 24:45
  [SPEAKER_10]: Yeah, I mean, SPX6900 is one of those coins out there that tells a fun story has massive crypto whales backing it.
• 24:55
  [SPEAKER_10]: And I don't see it going anywhere anytime soon, meaning down.
• 24:59
  [SPEAKER_10]: I think there's some real strength there behind the token.
• 25:02
  [SPEAKER_10]: Hey, their whole goal is to flip the S&P 500, even though it's a joke, I'm starting to believe it.
• 25:09
  [SPEAKER_08]: Yeah, that was right.
• 25:10
  [SPEAKER_08]: That was the initial joke that got what the AI to make it and to see that as hilarious.
• 25:19
  [SPEAKER_08]: One serious topic, and then we're going to go, after the serious topic, whenever the Fed comes on, we will switch over.
• 25:25
  [SPEAKER_08]: I thought this was really interesting.
• 25:28
  [SPEAKER_08]: I can't tweet this out.
• 25:29
  [SPEAKER_08]: I was like, hey, is AI here?
• 25:31
  [SPEAKER_08]: Is AI here?
• 25:33
  [SPEAKER_08]: While to see this before the holiday season, so then you go to this, I saw these layoffs going on.
• 25:38
  [SPEAKER_08]: And I thought it was really interesting that UPS and Amazon were the top two.
• 25:43
  [SPEAKER_08]: And usually around this time of year, no, again, we're about to hit November 1st.
• 25:47
  [SPEAKER_08]: Happy Halloween everybody for everybody that's going to be celebrating but we're about to November 1st that's holiday season right three weeks four weeks later black Friday right in the Christmas UPS Amazon FedEx there's always especially Amazon UPS you always hear holiday hires hey we're hot we're hiring 10 20 30 thousand people part time for the holiday season and I guess the little maybe they'll still do that in the sense that it's a part time higher I didn't get the details of who these employees are where they
• 26:14
  [SPEAKER_08]: Are they truck drivers?
• 26:15
  [SPEAKER_08]: Are they delivery drivers?
• 26:16
  [SPEAKER_08]: Are they, you know, systems, people, technology?
• 26:19
  [SPEAKER_08]: And, you know, obviously with Amazon, there's AWS.
• 26:22
  [SPEAKER_08]: So I'm not sure exactly where the top two are coming from, but I thought those two were really interesting considering the timing of year.
• 26:29
  [SPEAKER_08]: And then again, through these are some massive companies intel,
• 26:36
  [SPEAKER_08]: meta, you know, 600 employees doesn't seem like a lot, but, you know, meta doesn't have as many as police as a lot of other bigger companies, right?
• 26:44
  [SPEAKER_08]: So sales force, 4,000, paramount, 2,000, just any thoughts around this?
• 26:49
  [SPEAKER_08]: I don't, is this AI?
• 26:51
  [SPEAKER_08]: Is this, there's two, there's two thought processes here, either maybe AI is moving faster than the average person thinks, or is it,
• 27:07
  [SPEAKER_08]: is is are these CEOs worried about the state of the economy.
• 27:11
  [SPEAKER_10]: Yeah, that that's a great call out here.
• 27:13
  [SPEAKER_10]: I didn't really think too deep about it other than when I saw these numbers.
• 27:16
  [SPEAKER_10]: It was clear that the labor market was obviously weaker than we wanted it.
• 27:20
  [SPEAKER_10]: And the Amazon one, 30,000, I didn't even know about UPS of 48,000.
• 27:24
  [SPEAKER_10]: So the Amazon one, a 30,000 employees, my initial reaction was like, wow, that's surprising to me because they make so much money.
• 27:33
  [SPEAKER_10]: Like you said, they're going into the holiday season.
• 27:36
  [SPEAKER_10]: I don't know if I'm on board with like the AI, AI taking all these jobs.
• 27:44
  [SPEAKER_10]: I would need to think through this a little bit deeper because it's going to be a shock to the economy if that happens too quickly.
• 27:51
  [SPEAKER_10]: Yeah, that that seems like an aggressive standpoint.
• 27:54
  [SPEAKER_10]: Now, there's definitely been like some integration with like AI and open payment protocols recently.
• 27:59
  [SPEAKER_10]: I don't know.
• 28:00
  [SPEAKER_10]: We don't have to go down this path, but there's the x402 open payment protocol and integrating AI with micro payments and crypto.
• 28:10
  [SPEAKER_10]: So there's definitely a lot of.
• 28:12
  [SPEAKER_10]: evolution here happening with AI and integrating with crypto but I don't know I don't think this has to do with you know the AI overtake that everyone seems to be scared of But these are these are big numbers big numbers and I agree with you right now But I also think that when it does happen I think it will be sort of like a little bit of a rug pull situation like it's something people are gonna talk about and then maybe
• 28:37
  [SPEAKER_08]: Forget about, and then it's gonna come quick.
• 28:39
  [SPEAKER_08]: So, Aggies saying these are corporate employees, I just saw this this morning, so I didn't get to dive into it too much.
• 28:45
  [SPEAKER_08]: Something that we're gonna put a note on, definitely follow, come back to later.
• 28:49
  [SPEAKER_08]: We have Fed Share Powell, he began about a minute ago.
• 28:52
  [SPEAKER_08]: So Brian, I are gonna tune out here, put him on, and then obviously with a presser's important, but the Q&A's the most important, and then we'll be there to commentate if we hear something, but then at the end, we'll wrap it up, so let's tune in here.
• 29:08
  [SPEAKER_07]: In this less dynamic and somewhat off the labor market, the downside is to implement a peer-to-heavarism in recent months.
• 29:16
  [SPEAKER_07]: Inflation has a significantly from its highs in mid 2022, but remains somewhat elevated relative to our 2% longer on goal.
• 29:26
  [SPEAKER_07]: estimates based on the consumer price index, suggest that total PCE prices rose 2.8% over the 12 months ending at September.
• 29:34
  [SPEAKER_07]: And that, excluding the volatile food and energy categories, core PCE prices rose 2.8% as well.
• 29:43
  [SPEAKER_07]: These readings are higher than earlier in the year as inflation for goods has picked up.
• 29:48
  [SPEAKER_07]: In contrast, this inflation appears to be continuing for services near per measures of inflation expectations have moved up on balance over the course of this year on news about tariffs as reflected in both market and survey-based measures.
• 30:02
  [SPEAKER_07]: Beyond the next year or two, or so, however, most measures of longer-term expectations remain consistent with our 2% inflation goal.
• 30:14
  [SPEAKER_07]: Our monetary policy actions are guided by our dual mandate to promote maximum employment and stable prices for the American people.
• 30:22
  [SPEAKER_07]: At today's meeting, the committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rating by a quarter percentage point to three and three quarters to four percent.
• 30:32
  [SPEAKER_07]: Higher tariffs are pushing up prices in some categories of goods, resulting in higher overall inflation.
• 30:39
  [SPEAKER_07]: A reasonable base case is that the effects on inflation will be relatively short-lived, a one-time shift in the price level.
• 30:47
  [SPEAKER_07]: But it is also possible that the inflationary effects could instead be more persistent, and that is a risk to be assessed and managed.
• 30:55
  [SPEAKER_07]: Our obligation is to ensure that a one-time increase in the price level does not become an ongoing inflation problem.
• 31:03
  [SPEAKER_07]: In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside and risks to employment to the downside, a challenging situation.
• 31:12
  [SPEAKER_07]: There is no risk-free path for policy as we navigate this tension between our employment and inflation goals.
• 31:19
  [SPEAKER_07]: Our framework calls for us to take a balanced approach in promoting both sides of our dual mandate.
• 31:25
  [SPEAKER_07]: With downside risks to employment having increased in recent months, the balance of risks has shifted.
• 31:30
  [SPEAKER_07]: Accordingly, we judged it appropriate at this meeting to take another step toward a more neutral policy stance.
• 31:38
  [SPEAKER_07]: With today's decision, we remain well positioned to respond in a timely way to potentially economic developments.
• 31:45
  [SPEAKER_07]: We will continue to determine the appropriate stance of monetary policy based on the incoming data, the evolving outlook.
• 31:52
  [SPEAKER_07]: and the balance of risks, we continue to face two sided risks.
• 31:57
  [SPEAKER_07]: In the committee's discussions at this meeting, there were strongly differing views about how to proceed in December.
• 32:05
  [SPEAKER_07]: A further reduction in the policy rate at the December meeting is not a foregone conclusion, far from it.
• 32:12
  [SPEAKER_07]: Policy is not on a preset course.
• 32:16
  [SPEAKER_07]: And today's meeting, the committee also decided to conclude the reduction of our aggregate securities holdings as of December 1.
• 32:23
  [SPEAKER_07]: Our long-stated plan has been to stop balance sheet runoff when reserves are somewhat above the level we judge consistent with ample reserve conditions.
• 32:32
  [SPEAKER_07]: Signs have clearly emerged that we have reached that standard.
• 32:36
  [SPEAKER_07]: In money markets, repo rates have moved up relative to our administered rates and we have seen more notable pressures on selected dates, along with more use of our standing repo
• 32:47
  [SPEAKER_07]: In addition, the effective federal funds rate has begun to move up relative to the rate of interest on reserve balances.
• 32:54
  [SPEAKER_07]: These developments are what we expected to see at the size of our balance sheet declined and warrant today's decision to seize runoff.
• 33:03
  [SPEAKER_07]: Over the three and a half years that we've been shrinking our balance sheet, our securities holdings have declined by $2.2 trillion.
• 33:10
  [SPEAKER_07]: As a share of nominal GDP, our balance sheet has fallen
• 33:17
  [SPEAKER_07]: In December, we'll enter the next phase of our normalization plans by holding the size of our balance sheet steady for a time.
• 33:23
  [SPEAKER_07]: While reserve balance is continued to move gradually lower, as other non-reserve liabilities such as currency keep growing.
• 33:31
  [SPEAKER_07]: We will continue to allow agency securities to run off our balance sheet and will reinvest the proceeds from those securities in treasury bills.
• 33:38
  [SPEAKER_07]: Furthering progress toward a portfolio consisting primarily of treasury securities,
• 33:44
  [SPEAKER_07]: This reinvestment strategy will also help move the weighted average maturity of our portfolio closer to that of the outstanding stock of Treasury securities thus furthering the normalization of the composition of our balance sheet.
• 33:58
  [SPEAKER_07]: The Fed has been assigned two goals for monetary policy, maximum employment and stable prices.
• 34:04
  [SPEAKER_07]: We remain committed to supporting maximum employment, bringing our inflation sustainably to our 2% goal and keeping longer-term inflation expectations well-angred.
• 34:14
  [SPEAKER_07]: Our success in delivering on these goals matters to all Americans.
• 34:18
  [SPEAKER_07]: We understand that our actions affect communities, families, and businesses across the country.
• 34:24
  [SPEAKER_07]: Everything we do is enservice to our public mission.
• 34:26
  [SPEAKER_07]: We at the Fed will do everything we can to which you are maximum employment and price stability goals.
• 34:32
  [SPEAKER_07]: Thank you.
• 34:32
  [SPEAKER_07]: I look forward to your questions.
• 34:41
  [SPEAKER_12]: Nick, generous of the Wall Street Journal.
• 34:42
  [SPEAKER_12]: Chair Powell, are you uncomfortable with how market pricing has assumed a rate cut is a foregone conclusion in your next meeting?
• 34:50
  [SPEAKER_07]: Well, as I just mentioned,
• 34:53
  [SPEAKER_07]: for the reduction in the policy rate of December meeting is not a four wrong conclusion as I've just said so I would say that that needs to be taken on board.
• 35:02
  [SPEAKER_07]: We had, you know, just say this
• 35:05
  [SPEAKER_07]: 19 participants on the committee, everyone works very hard at this and takes their obligations to serve the American people very seriously.
• 35:12
  [SPEAKER_07]: And at a time when we have tension between our two goals, we have, you know, strong views across the committee, as I mentioned, they were strongly differing views today and the takeaway from that is that we haven't made a decision about December and, you know, we're going to be looking at the data that we have have that affects the outlook and the balance of risks and
• 35:34
  [SPEAKER_07]: I'll just say that.
• 35:35
  [SPEAKER_12]: You and some of your colleagues have framed last month, and maybe today, I won't go forward to enough.
• 35:41
  [SPEAKER_12]: There's a risk management exercise.
• 35:43
  [SPEAKER_12]: What point do you conclude that you've taken out enough insurance?
• 35:48
  [SPEAKER_12]: Are you looking for some kind of improvement in the outlook or could this unfold along the lines of last year, where you made a sequence of adjustments that were weighted
• 36:04
  [SPEAKER_07]: have been thinking about it is the risks to the two goals for a very long time the risk was clearly of higher inflation.
• 36:14
  [SPEAKER_07]: And then that has changed now.
• 36:16
  [SPEAKER_07]: And as we saw that particularly after we saw after the July meeting we saw the downward provisions in job creation, we saw a very different picture of the labor market and suggested that there were higher downside risks to the labor market than we had thought.
• 36:29
  [SPEAKER_07]: And that suggested that policy which we had been holding at a, I would say modestly, others people would say moderately restrictive level needed to move more in the direction over time of neutral.
• 36:42
  [SPEAKER_07]: If the two goals are sort of equally at risk, then you ought to be at neutral because one of them is calling for you to hike and one is calling for you to cut.
• 36:49
  [SPEAKER_07]: So if that, if that got back into balance, then you'd want to be roughly at neutral.
• 36:54
  [SPEAKER_07]: So in that sense, it was a risk management.
• 36:56
  [SPEAKER_07]: And I would say the same about today, sort of the same logic.
• 37:00
  [SPEAKER_07]: But as I mentioned, going forward is a different thing.
• 37:05
  [UNKNOWN]: Clear.
• 37:08
  [SPEAKER_06]: Clejo is financial times.
• 37:11
  [SPEAKER_06]: Thank you for taking this question.
• 37:15
  [SPEAKER_06]: We've just heard from you that the discussion in December and the conclusion of the discussion is not a foregone conclusion.
• 37:24
  [SPEAKER_06]: I'd like to just dig into that a little bit more about what sort of arguments were brought up.
• 37:28
  [SPEAKER_06]: Was there any consideration for instance of the investment we're seeing in AI and some of the generation of household well through rises in
• 37:38
  [SPEAKER_06]: stock prices related to the AI boom.
• 37:41
  [SPEAKER_06]: Thank you.
• 37:42
  [SPEAKER_07]: You know, I wouldn't say that's a factor in everyone's assessment of the economy.
• 37:47
  [SPEAKER_07]: I wouldn't say it's the driving factor.
• 37:49
  [SPEAKER_07]: I don't think for anybody.
• 37:51
  [SPEAKER_07]: You know, I guess I would say it this way.
• 37:52
  [SPEAKER_07]: Once again, I would just point out that we have the situation where the risks are to the upside for inflation and to the downside for employment.
• 38:01
  [SPEAKER_07]: We have one tool.
• 38:02
  [SPEAKER_07]: You can't do both of those.
• 38:03
  [SPEAKER_07]: You can't address both those of once.
• 38:05
  [SPEAKER_07]: You've got a very different situation.
• 38:07
  [SPEAKER_07]: you have some people, people have different forecasts, right?
• 38:09
  [SPEAKER_07]: So they'll, they'll, they'll, they'll feel, they'll forecast faster or slower progress.
• 38:15
  [SPEAKER_07]: I'm one of the other.
• 38:15
  [SPEAKER_07]: And they also have different levels of risk of origin.
• 38:17
  [SPEAKER_07]: And you know, people, some will be more averse to inflation overruns and some will be more averse to underruns of employment.
• 38:27
  [SPEAKER_07]: And so you put that together.
• 38:28
  [SPEAKER_07]: And as you can see from the
• 38:34
  [SPEAKER_07]: Yeah, more participants go out and talk, they're very disparate views, and they were reflected in strongly differing views in today's meeting, as I pointed out in my remarks, and that's what leaves me to say that, you know, that we haven't made a decision about December, you know, I always say that it's a fact that we don't make decisions as advanced, but this is some saying something in addition here is that it's not, it's not to be seen as a foregone conclusion,
• 39:01
  [SPEAKER_06]: Can I just ask a quick follow-up on QTA?
• 39:03
  [SPEAKER_06]: How much of the fund impressions we've seen in money markets are related to the US Treasury issue and more short-term debt?
• 39:13
  [SPEAKER_07]: That could be one of the factors.
• 39:14
  [SPEAKER_07]: But reality is we've seen the things that we've seen higher repo rates and federal funds rate moving up.
• 39:21
  [SPEAKER_07]: These are the very things that we look for.
• 39:24
  [SPEAKER_07]: We actually have a framework for looking at.
• 39:28
  [SPEAKER_07]: What the place we're trying to reach will we said for a long time now is that when we feel like we're a little bit or a bit above what we consider a level that's ample that we would freeze the size of the balance sheet of course reserves will continue to decline from that point forward as non reserve liabilities grow so this happened.
• 39:49
  [SPEAKER_07]: Some of it, some things have been happening for some time now, showing a gradual tightening in money market conditions, really in the last college three weeks or so.
• 39:57
  [SPEAKER_07]: You've seen more significant tightening, and I think a clear assessment that we're at that place.
• 40:03
  [SPEAKER_07]: The other thing is, you know, we're the balance she's just shrinking it at a very, very slow pace now, we've reduced it by half twice.
• 40:12
  [SPEAKER_07]: And so there's not a lot of benefit to be
• 40:16
  [SPEAKER_07]: You know, to be holding on for to get the last few dollars because, you know, again, with the balance sheets, the reserves are going to continue to shrink as non-reserves grow.
• 40:25
  [SPEAKER_07]: So, you know, there was support on the committee as we thought about it to go ahead with this and announce effective December one that we will be, you know, freezing the size of the balance sheet.
• 40:34
  [SPEAKER_07]: And the December one date gives the markets a little bit of time to adapt.
• 40:43
  [SPEAKER_01]: Thank you, Colby Smith with the New York Times.
• 40:45
  [SPEAKER_01]: So much of the rationale for cutting interest rates, even as inflation moves away from the two percent target, seems to be, you know, these mounting downside risks to the labor market.
• 40:54
  [SPEAKER_01]: But if those don't materialize and the labor market either stabilizes around current employment levels or even sources strengthen somewhat, how would that change your perception of how much interest rates need to fall from here?
• 41:07
  [SPEAKER_01]: Would you then be a bit more concerned about underlying inflation and the possibility
• 41:13
  [SPEAKER_01]: I'm terrorists.
• 41:14
  [SPEAKER_07]: Yeah, I mean, in principle, if you were to see data that's adjusted to the labor market strengthening or even that it's stabilizing, that would certainly play into our decisions going forward.
• 41:23
  [SPEAKER_07]: So we do have, we get some data, the labor market is a place where we get, for example, we get the state level data on initial claims.
• 41:31
  [SPEAKER_07]: which are sending a sort of a signal of more of the same.
• 41:35
  [SPEAKER_07]: We also get job openings and we'll get lots of survey data.
• 41:39
  [SPEAKER_07]: We'll get the beige book and things like that.
• 41:40
  [SPEAKER_07]: So we'll have a picture of what's going on in the labor market.
• 41:44
  [SPEAKER_07]: And the fact that we're not seeing an upticking in claims or a downtick really in openings suggest that you're seeing maybe continued very gradual cooling but nothing more than that.
• 41:57
  [SPEAKER_07]: So that does give you some comfort.
• 42:00
  [SPEAKER_01]: But if this shutdown lasts a while longer and you don't have that data in hand, I'm just wondering how that hinders the committee's ability to assess the state of the labor market and make the right policy decisions and and also how much is that factoring to the into the debate about December yeah so you know will we get we get.
• 42:19
  [SPEAKER_07]: Like, I mentioned what we get in the labor area.
• 42:21
  [SPEAKER_07]: We get some data in the inflation, some data in economic activity.
• 42:26
  [SPEAKER_07]: And we'll have a picture of what's going on.
• 42:29
  [SPEAKER_07]: We also will have the beige book again.
• 42:32
  [SPEAKER_07]: I would say we're not going to be able to have the detailed feel
• 42:37
  [SPEAKER_07]: of things but I think if there were a significant or a material change in the economy one way or another I think we'd I think we'd pick that up through this.
• 42:46
  [SPEAKER_07]: So in terms of how it might affect December it's really hard to say December is a you know this the meaning is like a six weeks away we just don't know what we're going to get if there is a very high level of uncertainty then you know it that could be an argument in favor of caution about moving but we'll have to see how it unfolds
• 43:07
  [SPEAKER_04]: Steve.
• 43:10
  [SPEAKER_02]: Steve Lee's been CNBC.
• 43:12
  [SPEAKER_02]: Mr. Chairman, can you characterize the meeting in terms of you said strongly differing views?
• 43:18
  [SPEAKER_02]: Was this a close call this cut or was it a close call maybe the other way?
• 43:22
  [SPEAKER_02]: Because you had dissents on both sides.
• 43:24
  [SPEAKER_02]: Thanks.
• 43:25
  [SPEAKER_07]: So I was referring to the discussion about, to the extent it related to December.
• 43:31
  [SPEAKER_07]: You saw we had two-to-sense, one for 50 and one for no cut.
• 43:35
  [SPEAKER_07]: So, you know, that was a strong solid vote in favor of this cut.
• 43:40
  [SPEAKER_07]: This, the strongly,
• 43:42
  [SPEAKER_07]: differing views, we're really about the future, what does that look like?
• 43:47
  [SPEAKER_07]: And I think people are saying, you know, they're noticing strong economic activity.
• 43:52
  [SPEAKER_07]: You know, forecasts are generally broadly.
• 43:55
  [SPEAKER_07]: Have raised their economic growth forecasts for this year and next year.
• 43:58
  [SPEAKER_07]: In some cases, quite materially.
• 44:00
  [SPEAKER_07]: In the meantime, we see, you know, a labor market that's kind of, I don't want to say stable, but it's, it's on.
• 44:07
  [SPEAKER_07]: It's not clearly in motion.
• 44:10
  [SPEAKER_07]: It's not clearly declining quickly in any case.
• 44:12
  [SPEAKER_07]: It may be just continuing to gradually cool.
• 44:14
  [SPEAKER_07]: And again, people have different, they have different forecasts and expectations about the economy and different, different risk tolerance.
• 44:22
  [SPEAKER_07]: So there's a, you know, you read the SEP, you read the speeches.
• 44:25
  [SPEAKER_07]: You know, there are different views on the committee.
• 44:27
  [SPEAKER_07]: And to the point where I said what I said, just to follow up on the balance sheet.
• 44:33
  [SPEAKER_02]: If you stop it, the runoff now, does that mean you have to go back to actually adding assets sometime next year so that the balance sheet does a shrink as a percentage GDP and become a tightening factor?
• 44:47
  [SPEAKER_07]: So the place we'll be on December one is that the size of the balance sheet is frozen.
• 44:53
  [SPEAKER_07]: And as mortgage back securities mature, we'll reinvest those in treasury bills.
• 44:57
  [SPEAKER_07]: which will foster both a more treasury balance sheet and also a shorter duration.
• 45:03
  [SPEAKER_07]: So that's what, in the meantime, if you freeze the size of the balance sheet, the non-reserve liabilities currency, for example, they're going to continue to grow organically and because the size of the balance sheet is frozen, you have further shrinkage in reserves.
• 45:15
  [SPEAKER_07]: And reserves is the thing that we're managing, that has to be ample.
• 45:19
  [SPEAKER_07]: So that'll happen for a time, but not a tremendously long time.
• 45:23
  [SPEAKER_07]: We don't know exactly how long, but at a certain point, you'll want to start reserves to start gradually growing to keep up with the size of the banking system and the size of the economy.
• 45:35
  [SPEAKER_07]: So we'll be adding reserves at a certain point.
• 45:38
  [SPEAKER_07]: And that's the last point.
• 45:40
  [SPEAKER_07]: Even then,
• 45:41
  [SPEAKER_07]: We'll be, we didn't make decisions about this today, but we did talk today about the composition of the balance sheet and there's a desire that the
• 45:50
  [SPEAKER_07]: at the balance sheet be, right now it's got a lot more duration than the outstanding universal treasury securities.
• 45:59
  [SPEAKER_07]: And we want to move to a place where we're closer to that duration.
• 46:01
  [SPEAKER_07]: That'll take some time.
• 46:02
  [SPEAKER_07]: We haven't made a decision about the ultimate endpoint, but we all agree that we want to move more in the direction of a balance sheet that more closely reflects the outstanding treasuries.
• 46:12
  [SPEAKER_07]: And that means a shorter duration.
• 46:14
  [SPEAKER_07]: balance sheet.
• 46:15
  [SPEAKER_07]: Now this is something that's going to be take a long time and move very, very gradually.
• 46:20
  [SPEAKER_07]: I don't think you'll notice it in market conditions, but but that's that's the direction of things.
• 46:31
  [SPEAKER_00]: Janelle Marte with Bloomberg, how are officials interpreting the latest CPI report?
• 46:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: So some components came in lower than expected, but for inflation was still at 3%.
• 46:44
  [SPEAKER_00]: So at this moment, what are you learning about the drivers?
• 46:48
  [SPEAKER_00]: And also, do you believe that the risks are greater that the Fed makes a mistake on employment or inflation?
• 46:55
  [SPEAKER_07]: So okay, so the September
• 46:58
  [SPEAKER_07]: CPI report.
• 46:59
  [SPEAKER_07]: We didn't get PPI after that, which is important for translation into what we look at, which is PCE inflation.
• 47:06
  [SPEAKER_07]: But we can still make a pretty good assessment of what that will be.
• 47:10
  [SPEAKER_07]: When we get PPI, there might be some adjustments.
• 47:13
  [SPEAKER_07]: So, directionally,
• 47:15
  [SPEAKER_07]: You know, it was a little softer than expected and we always break it down into the three components.
• 47:20
  [SPEAKER_07]: So basically you've seen goods prices increasing and that's really due to tariffs.
• 47:26
  [SPEAKER_07]: And that's due, that's compared to a longer run trend of very, very mild deflation and goods.
• 47:32
  [SPEAKER_07]: So that's moving inflation up on the other side of that.
• 47:36
  [SPEAKER_07]: Good news that housing services inflation has been coming down as expected to continue to come down.
• 47:45
  [SPEAKER_07]: we kept expecting it to do that now is doing it's been doing that for some time and we expect to continue that.
• 47:51
  [SPEAKER_07]: That leaves the the biggest category is services other than housing services and that's kind of been moving sideways over the last few months but a significant part of that is non-market services that we don't take a lot of signal about the Titan City economy
• 48:11
  [SPEAKER_07]: a couple of things to say.
• 48:12
  [SPEAKER_07]: One is that inflation away from tariffs is actually not so far from our 2% goal.
• 48:18
  [SPEAKER_07]: We estimate that people have different estimates of what that is, but it might be, you know, 5 or 6.
• 48:24
  [SPEAKER_07]: uh, tense and so that, you know, if it's 2.8, then, then, you know, core PCE, not including tariffs, might be 2.3 or 2.4 in that range, something like that.
• 48:36
  [SPEAKER_07]: So that's not so far from your goal, um, uh, so that we look at that and the thing about tariff inflation is the base case is that it will come and it probably will increase further.
• 48:50
  [SPEAKER_07]: But it is that it will be a one-time increase.
• 48:53
  [SPEAKER_07]: And we've been very focused for all of this year at making sure that that's the case.
• 48:58
  [SPEAKER_07]: And thinking carefully about what are the...
• 49:01
  [SPEAKER_07]: What are the pathways through which it could become something else, troublesome inflation?
• 49:05
  [SPEAKER_07]: One of those would be, you know, a really tight labor market.
• 49:08
  [SPEAKER_07]: We don't see that.
• 49:09
  [SPEAKER_07]: I know there could be inflation expectations moving, we don't see that.
• 49:12
  [SPEAKER_07]: So I think, you know, we're watching this very carefully.
• 49:16
  [SPEAKER_07]: I think it's not the case that we're just assuming that it's going to be a one time inflation.
• 49:21
  [SPEAKER_07]: We understand fully, this is a risk we have to monitor and ultimately manage.
• 49:25
  [SPEAKER_00]: with the stubborn in services inflation, what are some of the things that the fact could do to address that?
• 49:32
  [SPEAKER_00]: And especially when we're seeing potentially labor supply challenges.
• 49:37
  [SPEAKER_00]: Sorry, say the stubborn services inflation that you mentioned, service inflation.
• 49:42
  [SPEAKER_07]: Well, again, the part of services inflation that isn't coming down as we would like it to is the non-market part of non-housing services.
• 49:55
  [SPEAKER_07]: And overall, that's just something that we expect will come down.
• 49:59
  [SPEAKER_07]: The non-market part of it should come down.
• 50:02
  [SPEAKER_07]: It's larger than reflects higher stock prices and financial services that are computed rather than actually paid is a big part of that.
• 50:12
  [SPEAKER_07]: But also, we think policy is still modestly restrictive in my telling.
• 50:17
  [SPEAKER_07]: So that's the kind of thing that should lead to a gradually cooling economy.
• 50:20
  [SPEAKER_07]: That's one of the reasons you see a gradually cooling labor market.
• 50:23
  [SPEAKER_07]: is because, you know, the fed policy is modestly restrictive, so that should also help get that.
• 50:31
  [SPEAKER_07]: I want to say, though, we're absolutely committed to returning inflation to 2%.
• 50:36
  [SPEAKER_07]: If you look at longer terms, so that surveys or market pricing, you will see that that's a credible commitment and there should be no question that that's where we're going.
• 50:51
  [SPEAKER_09]: Great.
• 50:51
  [SPEAKER_09]: Thank you.
• 50:52
  [SPEAKER_09]: Chris, we gave her a associated press.
• 50:54
  [SPEAKER_09]: So there's a big investment boom in AI infrastructure right now, as you know, and wondering if the existence of such a boom, what indicate that rates are not that restrictive after all.
• 51:06
  [SPEAKER_09]: And could further rate cuts at this point, perhaps fuel and excess level of investment there or market bubbles.
• 51:13
  [SPEAKER_09]: How is it thinking about that?
• 51:16
  [SPEAKER_07]: So I don't I don't think that the
• 51:21
  [SPEAKER_07]: You're right, there's a lot of data centers being built in other investments being made around the country and around the world.
• 51:29
  [SPEAKER_07]: And big US companies are just investing a lot of resources in thinking about how AI, which will be based on those data centers run through those centers is going to affect their businesses.
• 51:44
  [SPEAKER_07]: So it's a big deal.
• 51:47
  [SPEAKER_07]: I don't think that the spending that happens to build data centers all over the country is especially interest sensitive.
• 51:54
  [SPEAKER_07]: It's based on longer run, it's, you know, longer run assessments that this is an area or there's going to be a lot of investment and that's going to drive higher productivity and that sorts of things.
• 52:05
  [SPEAKER_07]: I don't know how those investments will work out, but I don't think they're particularly interest sensitive compared to some of the other sectors.
• 52:12
  [SPEAKER_09]: And then just a quick follow-up could you mention that you do have data that you're looking at for inflation and growth in the absence of government data.
• 52:19
  [SPEAKER_09]: Could you give us a sense I think we
• 52:21
  [SPEAKER_09]: know a lot about the job data that's out there, can you give us a sense of what you're looking at to track inflation and the absence of government data?
• 52:28
  [SPEAKER_09]: Thank you.
• 52:29
  [SPEAKER_07]: So it's a lot of things and it doesn't replace government data, but you know all of these it's you know it's I'll just mention some of the many many names price stats Adobe and others and and for wage inflation there's
• 52:48
  [SPEAKER_07]: on spending, you're going to ask about spending at some point, you know, there are lots and other things that we look at, but it's, again, it's many, many different sources, and again, including what we get out of the, of the, the beige book, which will be sort of come out mid-cycle as always.
• 53:04
  [SPEAKER_07]: And it doesn't replace the government data, but it gives us a picture, again, I think if something material were happening, if there were material developments, I think we would pick that up.
• 53:14
  [SPEAKER_07]: I don't think we'll be able to have the very, very granular understanding of the economy while this, while this data is not available.
• 53:28
  [SPEAKER_11]: Howard Schneider with our orders.
• 53:30
  [SPEAKER_11]: Thank you.
• 53:31
  [SPEAKER_11]: I just want you to elaborate a little bit on what you said a moment ago about about the lack I continued shut down making it more difficult to make a move in December And that may make you more cautious to the degree you are relying on private data It isn't the gold standard or that you're relying on your own surveys or the beige book.
• 53:50
  [SPEAKER_11]: Do you worry at some point you're going to have to start making policy by anecdote
• 53:55
  [SPEAKER_07]: You know, this is a temporary state of affairs and, you know, we're going to do our jobs, we're going to collect every scrap of data we can find evaluated and think carefully about it and that's that's our jobs that's what we're going to do.
• 54:08
  [SPEAKER_07]: If you asked me, could it affect the December meeting?
• 54:13
  [SPEAKER_07]: I'm not saying it's going to, but yeah, you could imagine that what do you do and if you're driving in the fog, you slow down.
• 54:20
  [SPEAKER_07]: So that could or could not.
• 54:22
  [SPEAKER_07]: I don't know how that's gonna play into things.
• 54:26
  [SPEAKER_07]: We may get the data, may come back, but there's a possibility that it would make sense to be more cautious about moving.
• 54:32
  [SPEAKER_07]: I'm not committing to that.
• 54:34
  [SPEAKER_07]: I'm just saying it's certainly a possibility that you would say,
• 54:37
  [SPEAKER_07]: We really can't see, so let's slow down.
• 54:41
  [SPEAKER_11]: As a follow-up in the debate on this meeting, we saw recently some pretty big layoff announcements coming from from Amazon and others, wondering if that figured into discussion at all that you're starting to see the turn.
• 54:54
  [SPEAKER_11]: This tension between growth and employment starting to be resolved, you know, the detriment of employment.
• 55:00
  [SPEAKER_11]: And secondly, some of the stresses starting to appear in the bottom spur of the K as they call it.
• 55:10
  [SPEAKER_11]: possibly be going up quite substantially, things like that.
• 55:13
  [SPEAKER_11]: Has that started to become a factor in your policy discussion?
• 55:15
  [SPEAKER_07]: So those are both things that we're watching very, very, very carefully, to start with the layoffs.
• 55:23
  [SPEAKER_07]: You're right, you see a significant number of companies, either announcing that they are not going to be doing much higher or actually doing layoffs.
• 55:32
  [SPEAKER_07]: And,
• 55:33
  [SPEAKER_07]: Much of the time they're talking about AI and what it can do.
• 55:37
  [SPEAKER_07]: So, we're watching that very carefully, and, you know, yes, it could absolutely have implications for job creation.
• 55:46
  [SPEAKER_07]: We don't really see it in the initial claims data yet.
• 55:51
  [SPEAKER_07]: Now, it's not a surprise that we don't take some time for it to get in there, but we're watching that that really carefully.
• 55:58
  [SPEAKER_07]: But again, don't see it yet in the initial claims data.
• 56:02
  [SPEAKER_07]: But on the the case shaped economy thing, I would say the same thing or similar thing.
• 56:08
  [SPEAKER_07]: We are if you listen to the earnings calls or the reports of, you know, big public consumer facing companies, many, many of them are saying that there's a bifurcated economy there.
• 56:22
  [SPEAKER_07]: And that consumers at the lower end are struggling and buying less and shifting to lower cost products.
• 56:29
  [SPEAKER_07]: But that at the top people are spending at the higher end we income and wealth and they're there.
• 56:34
  [SPEAKER_07]: So you so much, much anecdotal data on that.
• 56:39
  [SPEAKER_07]: And so we think there's something there.
• 56:43
  [SPEAKER_06]: So.
• 56:48
  [SPEAKER_05]: Thank you, Edward Lawrence with Fox Business.
• 56:51
  [SPEAKER_05]: So, Mr. Chairman, I want to take another crack at the further reduction of rates as not a foregone conclusion.
• 56:57
  [SPEAKER_05]: So, in December, you said far from it.
• 56:58
  [SPEAKER_05]: So, if a cut might not be on the table for December because of lack of data, what is the other concerns than stem from?
• 57:08
  [SPEAKER_05]: So if it's not lack of data, as there is in December, it's not a foreground conclusion.
• 57:13
  [SPEAKER_05]: What other things could be the concern that?
• 57:15
  [SPEAKER_07]: Well, the perspective is on people on the committee that we've now moved 150 basis points and that we're down into, you know, you're into the range between three and four where most estimates of many estimates of the neutral rate live in that three to four percent area you're there now.
• 57:36
  [SPEAKER_07]: the median number for the committee, but I think there are people on the committee who have higher estimates of the neutral rate, and that's, you know, you can argue these positions since it can't be directly observed due to the neutral rate.
• 57:47
  [SPEAKER_07]: So, you know, I think for some part of the committee, you know, it's time to maybe take a step back and see whether there
• 58:06
  [SPEAKER_07]: that the stronger growth that we're seeing is real.
• 58:10
  [SPEAKER_07]: Ordinarily, the labor market is a better indicator of the momentum of the economy than the spending data.
• 58:16
  [SPEAKER_07]: That's the law.
• 58:18
  [SPEAKER_07]: And in this case, that gives a more downbeat read.
• 58:22
  [SPEAKER_07]: So people just have, again, we've caught 50 more basis points than the last two meetings.
• 58:28
  [SPEAKER_07]: And there was a sense like let's
• 58:31
  [SPEAKER_07]: from some let's let's let's pause here kind of thing and a sense from others wanting to go ahead but that's why I say differing views strongly differing views.
• 58:41
  [SPEAKER_05]: And so on that division then you're talking about going forward so what's more important to in this division is it inflation risks is it employment risk or is there a deeper philosophy division among the board?
• 58:53
  [SPEAKER_07]: I look everybody on the committee is deeply committed
• 58:58
  [SPEAKER_07]: to doing the right thing to achieve our goals, maximum employment and stable prices.
• 59:03
  [SPEAKER_07]: You have differences on how to do that.
• 59:05
  [SPEAKER_07]: As I mentioned, some of that is different forecast, but a lot of it is also different risk of versions to the different, to do different variables, which is common through.
• 59:16
  [SPEAKER_07]: You know, through all federal reserves, there are people just have different risk tolerances, let's say, so that lead you to people with disparate views, you will know that from the speeches you've been listening to from my colleagues.
• 59:28
  [SPEAKER_07]: And so we're at a place now where we have in fact cut two more times and you know we're now we're 150 based points closer to neutral wherever that may be then we were a year ago and so there's there's a growing chorus now of of feeling like maybe this is where we should at least wait a cycle something like that that's that's what it is it's just what you think it would be it's and again you've seen it in in the
• 59:52
  [SPEAKER_07]: This September summer becomes projections you've seen this in in the public remarks of FOMC participants and and now I'm telling you that's what that's what you're going to expect that in the minutes and I'm just telling you that's what happened in the meeting.
• 1:00:07
  [SPEAKER_04]: Elizabeth.
• 1:00:09
  [SPEAKER_04]: Thank you so much Lizard Shalsley with ABC News.
• 1:00:12
  [SPEAKER_04]: What is your explanation for why the job market is weakening right now and what will this rate cut due to improve the job market.
• 1:00:21
  [SPEAKER_07]: I think the, there are two things affecting the job market and one of them is just a dramatic reduction in the supply of new workers so and that's two things that's declining labor force participation which is a cyclical thing and then there's declining immigration which is just.
• 1:00:42
  [SPEAKER_07]: a big policy change that actually began in the last administration and has been accelerated now.
• 1:00:47
  [SPEAKER_07]: So, a big part of the whole story is that that's supply side story, okay.
• 1:00:52
  [SPEAKER_07]: All right.
• 1:00:53
  [SPEAKER_07]: All right.
• 1:00:53
  [SPEAKER_08]: We are going to tune out here, we have time for recap if you're interested in continuing to watch the presser plenty of places you go do it, if you're interested in
• 1:01:03
  [SPEAKER_08]: doing a little Q&A.
• 1:01:04
  [SPEAKER_08]: If you want to get involved in the chat, throw us your opinions, ask some questions, brought in an eye, are going to give kind of our thoughts of what we just listened to.
• 1:01:11
  [SPEAKER_08]: I think the meat and potatoes over there that last question I thought was pretty direct.
• 1:01:16
  [SPEAKER_08]: It's like, hey, if you're not on the path of cutting,
• 1:01:19
  [SPEAKER_08]: uh... and credits us credit to the show uh... did you see amazon did you see ups you see all these job cuts coming out of left field today uh... you know how are you gonna say that they want to support the labor market and you don't know what you're gonna do when you see some of the biggest companies in the world uh... slicing and dicing jobs like your bobby filet
• 1:01:39
  [SPEAKER_08]: uh... on the uh... you know beat bobby flay tv show over at the cutlery station so uh... some good questions there i thought again pal is pretty stoic in my mind uh... brion let's break this down a kind of off the jump as soon as we went live uh... pal started talking the question started coming in the market started new king during that live there three hundred million dollars were liquidated from the crypto market alone the s and p and the nazzak both took a quick nose dive
• 1:02:09
  [SPEAKER_08]: market makers are dirty dirty boys.
• 1:02:11
  [SPEAKER_08]: They're dirty players.
• 1:02:12
  [SPEAKER_08]: Man, that felt like an absolute hunt.
• 1:02:15
  [SPEAKER_08]: Um, because by the time that we're talking now, uh, it's basically bouncing back for the most part, especially in the S&P and NASDAQ.
• 1:02:22
  [SPEAKER_08]: Um, and in the crypto markets too, it felt like, you know, everybody loves their leverage.
• 1:02:27
  [SPEAKER_08]: We learned that from the last leverage historic leverage event.
• 1:02:31
  [SPEAKER_08]: Um, I felt like everybody kind of knew that the cut was coming.
• 1:02:34
  [SPEAKER_08]: Uh, so you load up on those, uh,
• 1:02:37
  [SPEAKER_08]: You know, you leverage out for a short term and I felt like a lot of people just got hunted right there, but any quick thoughts on that downward price action.
• 1:02:45
  [SPEAKER_10]: Yeah, it felt like a little bit of an overreaction to me, you know, we all knew the 25 bips was coming.
• 1:02:51
  [SPEAKER_10]: I mean, right when we started, the quote was, there's no guarantee we'll cut rates in December, the decision will depend entirely on data.
• 1:03:00
  [SPEAKER_10]: And then he acknowledged that the sent from, you know, a couple members, uh, one one a day, 25, one a day, 50 bips rate cut and the other one a just a
• 1:03:11
  [SPEAKER_10]: but it felt like the market just kind of nuked for no reason there, or I shouldn't say nuked, but took a nose dive, but we saw a quick rebound pretty quickly, 5-10 minutes after that, and I was curious what the odds are for three rate cuts by the end of the year.
• 1:03:29
  [SPEAKER_10]: We did go down a few percentage points according to Polymark, and I looked at CME, but nothing crazy.
• 1:03:36
  [SPEAKER_10]: Personally, I didn't think Powell was going to come out and say like,
• 1:03:41
  [SPEAKER_10]: Ray cuts come in December.
• 1:03:43
  [SPEAKER_10]: He's not the type of guy to say that, but he definitely was very stoic like you said.
• 1:03:48
  [SPEAKER_10]: His language said that December is possible.
• 1:03:51
  [SPEAKER_10]: We'll see a breakup, but nothing's penciled in.
• 1:03:55
  [SPEAKER_08]: Yeah, he used the term, he's used this before of with tariffs of driving into the fog.
• 1:04:00
  [SPEAKER_08]: There was one presser that he did use that language and sent the markets into a tailspin.
• 1:04:06
  [SPEAKER_08]: When, you know, this data-dependent Fed doesn't know where it's driving, driving its car through the fog.
• 1:04:12
  [SPEAKER_08]: So the market doesn't like talks like that.
• 1:04:16
  [SPEAKER_08]: Yeah, I mean, again, we know who the, you know, we know when we've talked about this, how it, you know, I think all things, even I, you know, personal take, I think, drone power at least.
• 1:04:26
  [SPEAKER_08]: is a great voice for the Fed.
• 1:04:29
  [SPEAKER_08]: Again, I'm sure he has his, you know, political opinions and whatnot, but I think as a leader, you know, you can't fault him for going up there and trying to at least lead the Fed.
• 1:04:38
  [SPEAKER_08]: Obviously, the governor is a different story.
• 1:04:40
  [SPEAKER_08]: I think give a lot of people that are choosing their political bias and you can kind of hear that from their sound bites.
• 1:04:47
  [SPEAKER_08]: Obviously, I'm sure the person who doesn't want to cut it all is is more leaning left and I'm sure the person that wants to cut 50 basis points.
• 1:04:54
  [SPEAKER_08]: is, you know, marching right in line with, with, uh, you know, the right and Trump's rhetoric.
• 1:04:59
  [SPEAKER_08]: So it'll be interesting.
• 1:05:01
  [SPEAKER_08]: I think, um, definitely this fed meeting leading up to it.
• 1:05:05
  [SPEAKER_08]: It definitely felt like the least, uh, I don't know if exciting's the right word, but like we didn't really know.
• 1:05:11
  [SPEAKER_08]: We were more interested in what was going to happen.
• 1:05:13
  [SPEAKER_08]: It felt like that wasn't really the case.
• 1:05:15
  [SPEAKER_08]: It's always interesting, but this one had a little mistakes on the table.
• 1:05:18
  [SPEAKER_08]: It feels like the stakes have definitely ramped up.
• 1:05:20
  [SPEAKER_08]: for the next fed meeting leading into the end of the year.
• 1:05:25
  [SPEAKER_08]: Probably the Santa Claus rally is going to hinge on that Q4.
• 1:05:29
  [SPEAKER_08]: We'll see that sometimes it takes a day for everybody to digest.
• 1:05:33
  [SPEAKER_08]: And then there's a period obviously where you don't get much fed speak.
• 1:05:36
  [SPEAKER_08]: So maybe when the
• 1:05:38
  [SPEAKER_08]: You know, when people are away, the mice will play, type of thing, I don't know, I kind of feel like this is what we say a lot of times with these things is the initial reaction either way, whether it goes up or down is kind of an overreaction, you've got to take it, you've got to let the dust settle, and then you can kind of make your decisions where you want to go with it.
• 1:05:58
  [SPEAKER_08]: But I just, with the December 1st of, you know, quantitative tightening is coming to an end.
• 1:06:04
  [SPEAKER_08]: Um, the fed balance sheet and the quantitative easing and rate cuts.
• 1:06:08
  [SPEAKER_08]: It's like, I don't know.
• 1:06:10
  [SPEAKER_08]: It feels like a don't overreact type of scenario and possibly kind of, we've talked about crypto specifically how we feel like this could be a cycle that kind of extends on a little more just because you have tradfi and ETFs and things are moving kind of slower.
• 1:06:25
  [SPEAKER_08]: And then, again, with the Fed, the cycle of the Fed, does that extend with the easing, does that extend the cycle a little bit more?
• 1:06:35
  [SPEAKER_08]: Jacob says, are we still in a government shutdown?
• 1:06:38
  [SPEAKER_08]: Yes, we are.
• 1:06:38
  [SPEAKER_08]: We are in the government shutdown.
• 1:06:40
  [SPEAKER_08]: So that's what he was saying is, if they're not getting the data, especially in the future, for the next great decision, that could kind of be that fog driving in the fog and not knowing where they're going.
• 1:06:52
  [SPEAKER_08]: I saw here that the lack of data, you know, this is just posted same thing with the fog, the lack of data through the shutdown could affect the December rate cut.
• 1:07:00
  [SPEAKER_08]: So, um, you know, I don't know not much, not much else to break down.
• 1:07:04
  [SPEAKER_08]: The price action seems to be bouncing a little bit.
• 1:07:07
  [SPEAKER_08]: Looks like the NASDEX back in the positive the S&P Bitcoin took a little tumble there.
• 1:07:12
  [SPEAKER_08]: but any any final thoughts on the fed Brian before we move on and we can uh I think we give the people a little maybe pump fun we talk about a little polymark and we'll give them a little Brian special before we head out here today.
• 1:07:23
  [SPEAKER_10]: Yeah, I love that and I just think initially once he mentioned there was no guarantee December there was gonna be a rate cut.
• 1:07:31
  [SPEAKER_10]: It wasn't surprised.
• 1:07:32
  [SPEAKER_10]: He said that kind of the Tony came out and said that I literally brought up coin market cap and I was like there we go We're gonna be tumbling a little bit of our overreaction by I think as core minds prevail We saw that bounce back and It's just kind of further and do Endorses my point that I think we'll get see a little bit of a chop
• 1:07:53
  [SPEAKER_10]: for a little bit longer for a few more weeks.
• 1:07:56
  [SPEAKER_10]: And you nailed a TV.
• 1:07:57
  [SPEAKER_10]: You said, there's a little bit more on the line here.
• 1:08:01
  [SPEAKER_10]: The stakes are a little higher for December's rate cut.
• 1:08:04
  [SPEAKER_10]: I 100% agree with that.
• 1:08:06
  [SPEAKER_10]: It's going to be a super interesting one.
• 1:08:08
  [SPEAKER_10]: I still...
• 1:08:09
  [SPEAKER_10]: expect a rake cut and I think the market in some of the prediction markets are kind of saying the same thing but it's it's not nearly as baked in but what what did we expect he was gonna say at the end of the day you know you he was gonna kind of be power how he how he acts and he does handle himself well so not surprised we saw that initial dip but I don't think we're gonna be too hung up on it for too long we're already coming back
• 1:08:36
  [SPEAKER_08]: Yeah, yeah, I agree with you.
• 1:08:38
  [SPEAKER_08]: I mean, credit to us, we were, you know, letting the people listen to the, the word right from the horse's mouth, but we are going back and forth, just like this feels like a complete overreaction and again, I think some of these market makers are absolutely ruthless and they see all the leverage.
• 1:08:52
  [SPEAKER_08]: You know, your average couple retail traders think they're going to get that quick hit with a bump, because they know a ray cuts coming.
• 1:08:58
  [SPEAKER_08]: Yeah, that's, that's a lot of times not how it works.
• 1:09:01
  [SPEAKER_08]: But let's leave the people with a couple fun points.
• 1:09:04
  [SPEAKER_08]: Last call for questions in the right there.
• 1:09:06
  [SPEAKER_08]: If you want to ask Brian a question or myself drop it in, and then let's pull up here.
• 1:09:12
  [SPEAKER_08]: What was this?
• 1:09:13
  [SPEAKER_08]: The pump fun link, Brian?
• 1:09:15
  [SPEAKER_08]: Something with the link.
• 1:09:17
  [SPEAKER_10]: Yeah, pump funds look good with all the this X402 talk about integration with payment rails with agents and then the sole ETF I'm starting to make things look good.
• 1:09:31
  [SPEAKER_10]: I'm just a big pump fund guy and I think the chart is starting to form a little bit of a cup and handle It's starting to look pretty good in my eyes So through that on the sheet because I know a lot of our listeners ask about pump fun a lot a lot people in our community
• 1:09:46
  [SPEAKER_10]: we talk about it a lot for everyone that may not know they're the leading meme coin platform on Solana but they're doing a lot more.
• 1:09:54
  [SPEAKER_10]: They're trying to bring streaming over there.
• 1:09:56
  [SPEAKER_10]: They're kind of a cornerstone of Solana.
• 1:09:58
  [SPEAKER_10]: So when Solana starts to go up, pump funds starts to go up.
• 1:10:01
  [SPEAKER_10]: We've seen a lot of challengers, challenge pump fun and just keeps on losing and they hit about 5 billion recently and they were leading a lot of the altcoins with just continue buybacks.
• 1:10:14
  [SPEAKER_10]: they're hammering the buyback button and it it looks strong in my opinion.
• 1:10:19
  [SPEAKER_08]: Yeah, just a I think that we've covered pump fund from the, you know, obviously since it's been around from the craziness of it all to the token launch to their wild commercial, you know, again, if you're interested in Brian and Joe's private community stay on top of the momentum money makers.
• 1:10:37
  [SPEAKER_08]: you know that link is always in the description for a trial let's see last call for questions how are the technicals looking from this quick dip based on longer time frame formations will uh you know Maggie may we're not to save that one for Brendan early next week our technical analysis uh guru who is the man um i again i think we need to let the shake out overnight
• 1:10:59
  [SPEAKER_08]: But I don't see anything crazy happening from that press conference.
• 1:11:04
  [SPEAKER_08]: Just a quick hit.
• 1:11:04
  [SPEAKER_08]: I just got out of alert pal says AI is not the same as the dot com bubble you're starting to hear a lot of people Hey, we're in a bubble.
• 1:11:11
  [SPEAKER_08]: We're in a bubble.
• 1:11:12
  [SPEAKER_08]: But again, I personally do agree with that as well because you go back to com bubble.
• 1:11:18
  [SPEAKER_08]: I mean you're looking at companies that had evaluations much higher than in video much higher than you know Microsoft and meta and they they had no profits
• 1:11:28
  [SPEAKER_08]: I think the dot com bubble again, you know, you're, you have a seniority over me, but from studying it and looking back in history, it seems like that was such a unique point in time.
• 1:11:39
  [SPEAKER_08]: And not to say that we can't get back there, especially with AI.
• 1:11:42
  [SPEAKER_08]: But it's kind of like the housing crisis in a way.
• 1:11:45
  [SPEAKER_08]: It's like the dot com bubble, the housing crisis.
• 1:11:47
  [SPEAKER_08]: A lot of these things were just in a wild way, stupid learning experiences and borderline fraud.
• 1:11:54
  [SPEAKER_08]: 2008, everybody kind of saying like, oh, the housing markets too high, it's going to crash like 2008.
• 1:11:59
  [SPEAKER_08]: It's like not not necessarily because that was fraud.
• 1:12:02
  [SPEAKER_08]: Like yes, price.
• 1:12:04
  [SPEAKER_08]: Yeah, prices compete you high.
• 1:12:06
  [SPEAKER_08]: Definitely there could be a 10, 20% correction for sure.
• 1:12:10
  [SPEAKER_08]: But there's also people that aren't getting three mortgages that don't have a pulse anymore, right?
• 1:12:14
  [SPEAKER_08]: Like this person's dead and they got three mortgages last month.
• 1:12:17
  [SPEAKER_08]: That's not happening anymore.
• 1:12:18
  [SPEAKER_08]: Um, and the same thing with the dot com bubble, if we bring it back to equities, there were, it's like, all you had to do was slap a dot com on your name.
• 1:12:25
  [SPEAKER_08]: Now, pets dot com today is a real company.
• 1:12:27
  [SPEAKER_08]: But back then, it was just like, hey, pets dot com popcorn dot com, this dot com, use through a dot com on it.
• 1:12:33
  [SPEAKER_08]: And you had millions of dollars, you know, tens of millions, hundreds of millions of dollars in investment coming your way and you weren't profitable.
• 1:12:40
  [SPEAKER_08]: So there's a ton of companies that there's stocks blew up and there was no business behind it.
• 1:12:45
  [SPEAKER_08]: And so while you can say, yes, maybe some evaluations are stretched, especially if you're looking at the Palantir.
• 1:12:52
  [SPEAKER_08]: But we're not Palantir's a very, very successful company and bringing tons and tons and tons of revenue with unique products.
• 1:13:00
  [SPEAKER_08]: And then talk about Nvidia, I think the coolest thing is if people want to go do the research, go look at Nvidia's forward PE and compare it to Walmart and Costco.
• 1:13:08
  [SPEAKER_08]: Like Costco and Walmart are trading at 4550 PE.
• 1:13:11
  [SPEAKER_08]: I think Nvidia right now is maybe at like 30.
• 1:13:14
  [SPEAKER_08]: So it's like, you know, the Costco and Walmart are overvalued and in a bubble if if in video.
• 1:13:20
  [SPEAKER_08]: I mean, it's it's an interesting time.
• 1:13:22
  [SPEAKER_08]: Let me see.
• 1:13:22
  [SPEAKER_08]: I see a couple more chats.
• 1:13:25
  [SPEAKER_08]: Maggie made disagrees.
• 1:13:26
  [SPEAKER_08]: Okay.
• 1:13:26
  [SPEAKER_08]: I love that.
• 1:13:27
  [SPEAKER_08]: Fuel, fuel early investors in AI will struggle, but long-term will work.
• 1:13:31
  [SPEAKER_08]: Good take.
• 1:13:33
  [SPEAKER_08]: Does this conference chain press conference maybe change something except some doubts regarding temper cuts for us.
• 1:13:40
  [SPEAKER_08]: Okay.
• 1:13:40
  [SPEAKER_08]: Let's end on that.
• 1:13:41
  [SPEAKER_08]: Mike's array.
• 1:13:42
  [SPEAKER_08]: Does this press conference from pal change anything.
• 1:13:45
  [SPEAKER_08]: Accept the doubts for the right cuts.
• 1:13:47
  [SPEAKER_08]: It's a good summary of the show.
• 1:13:49
  [SPEAKER_08]: I don't think it changes anything.
• 1:13:50
  [SPEAKER_08]: Again, you saw that quick kind of wick down to go liquidate a bunch of people now.
• 1:13:55
  [SPEAKER_08]: We're kind of hovering back up.
• 1:13:58
  [SPEAKER_08]: Yeah, I think it's something that we're going to monitor.
• 1:14:00
  [SPEAKER_08]: You're going to want to watch this fed speak.
• 1:14:01
  [SPEAKER_08]: We'll do that for you as the months go on here the weeks go on.
• 1:14:05
  [SPEAKER_08]: But I don't think you should make Yeah, go out and make some crazy decisions from this press conference today.
• 1:14:13
  [SPEAKER_08]: Brian, your final thoughts.
• 1:14:15
  [SPEAKER_10]: Yeah, I agree 100% with you.
• 1:14:17
  [SPEAKER_10]: I nothing in this press conference really surprised me all that much of course I would love a little bit.
• 1:14:24
  [SPEAKER_10]: I would love for him to have been like, hey, we're doing another Ray cut in December and we just
• 1:14:28
  [SPEAKER_08]: take off line but that was like it would have been he wouldn't say that obviously like that would have been wild that would have been crazy.
• 1:14:36
  [SPEAKER_10]: That's so unrealistic.
• 1:14:38
  [SPEAKER_10]: I actually thought he handled himself pretty good.
• 1:14:41
  [SPEAKER_10]: I still expect personally a rate cut going into December and I think the market expects it as well but nothing out of this press conference really surprised
• 1:14:52
  [SPEAKER_10]: And we'll see it in your take on the dot com stuff is interesting.
• 1:14:57
  [SPEAKER_10]: I can go both ways on there as well because sometimes I joke that if anybody wanted to make a multi-million dollar corporation, they just come up with a good idea and throw AI behind it.
• 1:15:06
  [SPEAKER_10]: New York.
• 1:15:08
  [SPEAKER_10]: Could we grip there?
• 1:15:09
  [SPEAKER_10]: That's the question.
• 1:15:10
  [SPEAKER_10]: Yeah, I don't think it's not there yet.
• 1:15:12
  [SPEAKER_08]: It could happen.
• 1:15:13
  [SPEAKER_08]: It could totally happen.
• 1:15:15
  [SPEAKER_08]: But it's not there yet.
• 1:15:16
  [SPEAKER_08]: And probably the last bubble would have been, you could be, you know, again, we love
• 1:15:22
  [SPEAKER_08]: You know, some of these all coins, especially towards the end of the last cycle, you know, there's some things that just aren't around anymore, and it was like, okay, well, what was the basis behind these projects?
• 1:15:32
  [SPEAKER_08]: So again, you got to learn from the history of it, but yeah, we're definitely not there yet, but we 100% could be.
• 1:15:38
  [SPEAKER_08]: But, um, you know, and if you do get there, does it get to the point where you're too euphoric and everything's going to keep going up and you don't, you don't realize it possibly.
• 1:15:47
  [SPEAKER_10]: Yeah, we've all been there, but I think everyone's getting a little bit more sophisticated.
• 1:15:52
  [SPEAKER_10]: We learn a little bit more every time like when something like that happens, but yeah, I don't think we're there yet by any means.
• 1:15:58
  [SPEAKER_08]: And everything moves faster now, and that's just how light is.
• 1:16:01
  [SPEAKER_08]: Again, we're on our phones, and we're just scroll, scroll, scroll, our attention spans zero.
• 1:16:05
  [SPEAKER_08]: Everybody,
• 1:16:06
  [SPEAKER_08]: has the ability to go and get the information like me and you, super informed people and we love everybody that's tuning in with our subscribers across all of our platforms.
• 1:16:15
  [SPEAKER_08]: But people like me and you couldn't be doing shows like this 25, 30 years ago.
• 1:16:20
  [SPEAKER_08]: The information is gate key if you couldn't go online.
• 1:16:23
  [SPEAKER_08]: and build, you know, your knowledge base, like you can today, and then I just feel like, again, these, the bear markets are shorter, the bull markets are faster, like everything's moving at such a fast pace.
• 1:16:34
  [SPEAKER_08]: And again, that's why we truly believe that you need a community of people to do it.
• 1:16:38
  [SPEAKER_08]: So if you're interested in doing that, always check the links in the description if you want to get more involved.
• 1:16:43
  [SPEAKER_08]: We have some trials going on as we head into the end of the year here and then if not always subscribe So hit the subscribe button hit the like button We really appreciate you guys tuning in over an hour and 15 minutes today Brian.
• 1:16:54
  [SPEAKER_08]: We were live for the people I got to go finish this move.
• 1:16:58
  [SPEAKER_08]: It's been an absolute pleasure being with you guys here today This is officially the last podcast in my old home next week.
• 1:17:04
  [SPEAKER_08]: We will be in the new
• 1:17:06
  [SPEAKER_08]: And uh, I don't know.
• 1:17:07
  [SPEAKER_08]: Hopefully improve studio.
• 1:17:08
  [SPEAKER_08]: We'll see it might take a couple of weeks to get that set up but always a pleasure being with your Brian.
• 1:17:12
  [SPEAKER_08]: Thank you to everybody for tuning in.
• 1:17:14
  [SPEAKER_08]: We are going to be back next week with more great content.
• 1:17:17
  [SPEAKER_08]: Thank you so much everybody.
• 1:17:19
  [SPEAKER_08]: Happy Halloween and enjoy your day.
• 1:17:22
  [SPEAKER_08]: Goodbye everybody.