Latest / Buckeyes TomOrrow Morning / Ohio State Football: The 5 Toughest Playoff Matchups For The Buckeyes

Transcript

Ohio State Football: The 5 Toughest Playoff Matchups For The Buckeyes · Buckeyes TomOrrow Morning

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Welcome to Buckeyes tomorrow morning. From Monday, December fifteenth, I'm
• 0:03
  Speaker 1: your host, tom or the Cotton Bowl Game in sixteen days,
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: the gimme It's Michigan in three hundred and forty eight days.
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: If you're planning your next event, make it unforgettable with
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: Grateful Griddle, Columbus's favorite food truck serving up smashburgers, gourmet
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: sandwich is, and good vibes. Book your catering today at
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: gratefulgriddleoh dot com. All right, this is part two of
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: a show we're doing looking at the eleven other teams
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: in the College Football Playoff and which ones might present
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: the biggest matchup challenges for Ohio State. This is not
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: a power ranking. This is not a list of teams
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: in order of the most likely to win the College
• 0:36
  Speaker 1: Football Playoff championship. This is just looking at teams in
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: particular that might present unique matchup challenges to Ohio State
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: and doing that on a very statistical basis. If you
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: watch the last show, you already know this. But we're
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: gonna be looking at sp plus rankings, which are opponent
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: adjusted and tempo adjusted as well, so teams that play
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: in worse conferences teams that play at slower tempos or
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: particular high tempos. That's all sort of ironed out in
• 1:03
  Speaker 1: those numbers, and then looking at some yards per play
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: stats as well in terms of how do they do
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: rushing the ball, throwing the ball, defending the pass, depending
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: the run, all that, and finally, how do they do
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: in terms of getting to the quarterback, Because it feels
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: like what we've seen this year is if you can
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: get to the quarterback against Ohio State, you have a
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: chance to sload on the Ohio State passing offense. If
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: you don't, it's going to be more of a challenge.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: So all right, So we did the first six earlier,
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: so you've heard those. The last team we talked about
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: was number six Texas A and M, which is a
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: team that Ohio State could potentially play in its quarterfinal game.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: Now we're going to move into the top five and
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: this first one, this is one where I'm sure people
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: are gonna be a little surprised to see this team
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: this early in this show. But the number five team,
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: the Georgia Bulldogs. Now we'll go through the numbers real
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: quick here and you can I think you'll probably be
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: able to figure out the point at which I kind
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: of go aha, I could see where the problem might
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: come for them. Sp plus offense fourteenth, very good sp
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: plus defense sixth, very good SPPLUS special teams fourth, yes,
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: all very good. Yards per rush sixtieth, yards per pass
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: fifty sixth. The offense is good but not incredible, obviously,
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: the fact that they are ranked is the fourteenth best
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: offense in sp plus. That is where the opponent adjustment
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: comes in. They're playing some better defenses than teams on
• 2:24
  Speaker 1: a lot of other conferences are, So that's where the
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: offense is good but not incredible. Yards per rush allowed seventh, okay,
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: yards per pass allowed thirty third. All right, so they're
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: a little bit vulnerable in the pass. We have seen
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: This is not a factor dunt to the statistics, but
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: just sort of anecdotally over the years, you've seen they're
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: a little vulnerable to the deep pass this small. So
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: that's one of those areas that I think could be
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: a big problem for the Georgia Bulldogs. The biggest problem though,
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: that last number one hundred and ninth in the nation
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: in sacks per game. They just don't get to the quarterback.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: They don't defend the deep ball particularly well. They don't
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: defend the pass particularly well. That seems like that might
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: be a problem for those Georgia Bulldogs, and the offense
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: is not so fantastic that it seems like it's likely
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: to make up for it. So that sort of just
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: feels like that might be a game that Ohio State
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: maybe wins twenty eight, seventeen, twenty thirty one, fourteen, something
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: like that. That just is sort of I know that's
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: not what the power ratings are going to say, but
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: if you just sort of look at it purely from
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: a matchup point of view, that feels like that's a
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: team that Ohio State might not match up too terribly with,
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: even though it is very clearly one of the best
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: teams in the bracket. And if Georgia, you know, if
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: Ohio State does somehow get knocked out before they played Georgia,
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: Georgia very well may end up winning it all. That
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: just doesn't feel like a particularly great matchup for the
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: Georgia Bulldogs this year. So they're number five, number four.
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: This is the team that is by far ranked higher
• 3:56
  Speaker 1: on this list than they are in terms of the
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: overall seed in the College Football Playoff. Miami is the
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: tenth seed. They're fourth on this list, so why all right? Well,
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: I think you can look through the numbers, and the
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: numbers are pretty good. Everywhere's up. They don't run the
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: ball particularly well, but sp plus offense sixteenth. That's a
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: little behind Georgia, so bit solid, not spectacular, but solid
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: defense tenth yep. Pretty good. Special teams twelfth yep. Pretty good,
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: nothing spectacular, but sort of solid all around. Yards for
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: rush eightieth. They do not run the football well on average.
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: That's that is probably one thing you'd be a little
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: concerned about. Yards per past seventeenth, yards per rush allowed tenth,
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: yards per pass allowed eleventh, sixteenth, in sacks they are
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: just kind of consistently good, never amazing, but consistently good.
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: And that is probably even though Georgia is probably a
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: more talented team, if you want to do the two
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: four to seven talent composite I have not looked. I'm
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: going to guess George is ahead of Miami in that
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: this year. Miami, though, has the pieces in certain places
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: where can they hit a big pass play or too yeah,
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: maybe can they get to Julian saying enough to disrupt
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: the Ohio state pass out passing offense. Yeah maybe that's
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: there's a lot of yeah maybe there and Miami. They
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: may not get past Texas A and M, but if
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: they do, it feels like they would present a bigger
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: challenge to Ohio State than Texas A and M just
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: from looking at the statistical profiles. So that is why
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: the Miami Hurricanes are number four, moving up to number three.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: This is a big ten opponent the Buckeyes have not
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: played yet this year, and that is the Oregon Ducks.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: Their offense and sp plus thirteenth in the nation, defense and
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: sp plus fifth in the nation. All the teams, you've
• 5:44
  Speaker 1: got three more teams left, all three of them are
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: in the top five, and Ohio State is also one
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: of the top five. So this is pretty much if
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: you're in the top five, you're going to be in
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: this conversation here. Oregon fifth in the nation and spplus
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: and defense thirty seventh, and special teams nothing spectacular, terrible.
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: Yards per rush fifth. They do run the ball pretty well,
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: yards per pass fourteenth, throw the ball pretty okay. Yards
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: per rush allowed fifteenth, yards per pass allowed fourth. Honestly,
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: they might be ahead of the next team if not
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: for this last number Sachs seventy eighth. They do not
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: get there. The coverage this year from Oregon has been
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: a lot better than it was last year out of
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: that secondary, but it is a team that does not
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: get to the passer all that often. So that's the
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: one thing that sworda holds them back here in terms
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: of a statistical profile in terms of a matchup against
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: Ohio State still third, that is a team that Ohio
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: State is not particularly likely to end up playing there
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: on the other side of the bracket, and they have
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: the other two teams that we're going to get to
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: here are also on the other side of the bracket,
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: so that in a way is fortunate for Ohio State.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: But Oregon there number three on this list, number two.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: How about the Texas Tech Red Raider, not a team
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: you probably would have guessed would have been on this
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: list a couple of years ago with the number one
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: team on this list. Also we'll fall into that bucket.
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: We'll get there at a minute. Texas Tech though, number
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: two on this list. Why because they just really solid
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: on offense, really solid on defense. Number two in SP
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: plus offense, number four on SP plus defense, and I
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: can already hear people yelling, yeah, but they don't play
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: anyone in the Big twelve. Yeah, yeah, I get it.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: And their non conference schedule is terrible. I get it.
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: Those are opponent adjusted metrics. Those are they account for
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: the fact that the offenses you're playing might not be phenomenal.
• 7:32
  Speaker 1: And if you are still shutting people shutting down not
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: phenomenal offenses, that is that is going to show up
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: on those SP plus numbers. So there it is s
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: P plus special teams forty third yards per rush on
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: the offensive side of the ball, thirty eighth yards per
• 7:47
  Speaker 1: past twenty sixth. That's where you're sore to seeing that. Okay,
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: they're probably not. You know, the SP plus number is
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: is second, but you know, the numbers that they're putting up,
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: the raw numbers are putting up, are not phenomenal on offense.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: On defense though, yards per rush allowed, first, yards per
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: pass allowed, fourth, sacks fifth, those are really really impressive numbers.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: And honestly, I seriously thought about putting this team number
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: one on this list. They are going to be a
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: absolute challenge for whoever ends up playing them, whether you
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: know whether they get Georgia or Ohio State or if
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: you know they would have to get through Indiana probably
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: first to get there, or Oregon. That is going to
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: be a challenge. That team is going to be a
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: tough out in the bracket just because they're going to
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: be able to keep the score low enough. That is
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: going to be a four quarter football game every game
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: against Texas Tech. And they're talented enough on offense that
• 8:37
  Speaker 1: they can probably pull some of those games out. So
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech number two, who's number one, Well, it is
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: the only team to beat Ohio State this year, and
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: that is the Indiana Hoosiers. Isman Trophy winner Fernando Mendoza
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: is just one piece of a very very talented and
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: very very well coached and well developed team. They are
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: number four in the nation and sp plus on offense,
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: number two on defense. That just the same numbers as
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech just flipped. Texas Tech was second on offense
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: and fourth on defense. Indiana fourth on offense, second on defense.
• 9:10
  Speaker 1: And I think if you're going to beat Ohio State,
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: you were going to beat them with defense this year
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: and not necessarily with offense. So going there, Texas Indiana
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: special teams thirty eighth in the nation. Yards per rush,
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: fifteenth yards per past fourth, yards per rush allowed, ninth,
• 9:24
  Speaker 1: yards per pass allowed, nineteenth, fifth in the nation. In SACS,
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: they have the exact same number of sacks per game
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: as Texas Tech. As crazy as that is, but there
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: you go. So those are there is the team that
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: is sort of projected to be the most difficult for
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: Ohio State defeat face. The good news for Ohio State
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: the top three teams on this list all on the
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: other side of the bracket. The bad news for Ohio
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: State the fourth and fifth teams. They are in line
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: to play them potentially in the quarterfinals and the semifinals
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: in order to get there. So unless you get an
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: upset or Texas Tech Texas A and m knocks off Miami,
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: this is going to This is not going to be
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: an easy path to the championship for Ohio State, even
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: though they do have that two spot this year get
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: that first round by still looking at potentially a challenging
• 10:09
  Speaker 1: road to that national championship game in Miami. We will
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: be there every step of the way as the Buckeyes
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: try to make that path to Miami to win their
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: second straight national championship. That path sort of starts unofficially
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: for them this Saturday, December twentieth, at noon, Texas A
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: and M in Miami facing off for the right to
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: play at my Ohio State in the quarterfinals. Then the
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: buck guys will take on the winner of that game
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: in the Cotton Bowl. New Year's Eve. Will be there
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: for that, and then if they win that one, then
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: they will be headed to the Fiesta Bowl, and then
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: if they win that, then the National Championship. However, however
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: along they're playing, we will be there every step of
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: the way the team at pucke huddle dot com covering
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: the Buckeyes, covering recruiting, covering x's nos, and much much more.
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: You'll find us at pucke huddle dot com and YouTube
• 10:53
  Speaker 1: dot com slash Buckey Huddle. That'll do it for today.
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: Thank you guys all for joining us. Have a great day.
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: We'll talk to you tomorrow.