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Chuck’s Commentary - The Challenge Of Messaging The 2026 Midterms + Americans Do NOT Approve Of ICE · The Chuck ToddCast

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  Speaker 1: and welcome to another episode of the Chuck Podcast. I
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: am the aforementioned title name of said podcast. I'm Chuck Todd.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: We have let me give you a lay of the
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: land of the show. Today. I'm going to talk a
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: little bit about the struggle that I think both parties
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: are going to have trying to figure out how to
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: message in twenty for campaign twenty twenty six. I will
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: get to that. Got some interesting first polling on the
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: incident in Minnesota and where the American public is on
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: the shooting of a civilian by an ICE agent, a
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: civilian protester. How do you message in this political environment,
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: because I think it's going to be quite difficult. So
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: I'm going to get to that in a second. Obviously,
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: after the interview I've got. It is Wednesday, and every Wednesday,
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: I want to have a new top five list. Yes,
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: I'm playing the algorithmic game, so assume me. But it's
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: a little point of privilege. It's my podcast, it's my
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: top five lists. So yes, it will be about the
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: I mean Hurricanes, so deal with it. But even if
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  Speaker 1: you're not a fan of the Hurricanes, if you're a
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: fan of college football, if you're a fan of sports history,
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  Speaker 1: I think you'll like my top five list. And then
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: we'll do some Q and I always a popular segment.
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  Speaker 1: So but let me dive into this issue of what
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: I think is going to be an extraordinarily challenging message
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: because you know, when it comes to campaign twenty twenty six,
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  Speaker 1: we already know the three endings. Okay, we just don't
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: know which ending it's going to be, and we don't
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: know how we're going to get there. But the time
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  Speaker 1: the votes are counted next November, the verdict is going
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: to be instant, even if we're not quite sure of
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: the meaning right away. Right, If Democrats win both the
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: House and the Senate, it's going to be framed as
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: a full rebuke of Donald Trump. Hartstop. If Democrats only
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: win the House, it's going to be called a partial rebuke,
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: and everyone will obsess over the size of the majority. Right,
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  Speaker 1: if it's twenty to thirty seats, you know, they'll be
• 4:00
  Speaker 1: those that are going to say this was a blue wave. Right,
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: I think you have a hard time calling it a
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: wave without winning both thousand the Senate. But I digress.
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  Speaker 1: I'm going to get to the political map in a
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  Speaker 1: few minutes. And then, of course, if Republicans hold both chambers,
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  Speaker 1: well you'll have a spiraling Democratic Party, if you will,
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: and Republicans will feel vindicated and Trump will claim total validation.
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  Speaker 1: So those are the three basic outcomes. So we kind
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: of know one of those, you know, door number one,
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  Speaker 1: Door number two, door number three. I think there's the
• 4:29
  Speaker 1: most likely scenario is somewhere it's either one or two.
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  Speaker 1: Three feels like a pretty far fetched given where we're
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: starting because I think it is worth noting, and it's
• 4:39
  Speaker 1: it's a it's a point I made in my weekly
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: podcast with Crystalism on his substact feet, which is, you know,
• 4:47
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump politically could is starting in an extraordinarily weak place.
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: Yet he's behaving as if he's got an extraordinary amount
• 4:56
  Speaker 1: of political capital, right. I kind of think he's yellowing
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: it a little bit, which is why one of the
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: reasons and the point I made a couple of the
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: last podcasts that why I think twenty twenty six is
• 5:10
  Speaker 1: the year we're all living dangerously is that we have
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: a president who who may personally feel very strengthened by
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: you know, or uninhibited, and that the Venezuela operation tactically
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: went so smoothly that he's going to think, hey, this
• 5:27
  Speaker 1: is easy. I can start playing the game of risk
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: all over the world. So which is why I think
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: there's so much extra uncertainty at this moment. So look,
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  Speaker 1: we that's why I'm very skeptical that somehow this turns around.
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  Speaker 1: So well, I know, Republicans believe that when the tax
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: refunds come in that that will start to make people
• 5:51
  Speaker 1: feel better about his economic plans and his economic ideas.
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  Speaker 1: Let's let's see what happens when we get there doing
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: what he did with the FED. He is, you know
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: it is why if if you caught my update on that,
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: by the way, I did a special update in between
• 6:08
  Speaker 1: podcasts on the YouTube channel, so I encourage you to
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: go check it out if you follow me in some socials,
• 6:14
  Speaker 1: you may have already seen this, but you know, I
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: have a feeling and my, uh, what the guidance I
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: was trying to give on that story is, I think
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: you're going to see a quick exit ramp from this
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: phony investigation into the chairman of the Federal Reserve. The
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  Speaker 1: Treasury Secretary's panic, half the White House staff is panic.
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  Speaker 1: Even Trump's trying to walk away. Senate Republicans don't want
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  Speaker 1: any part of this, you know, if he's hoping to
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: remake the FED, he just you know what, Janine Piro
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: is sort of personal US attorney that he appointed there
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: in d C. Really sort of set his set. Is
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: set him back quite a bit here. So I wouldn't
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: be surprised if you see a quick retraction of this investigation,
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  Speaker 1: even faster than what I speculated with a couple of
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: days ago. So that said, we still, look, we know
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  Speaker 1: there are a range of outcomes about these midterms. What
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  Speaker 1: we don't know and what's going to matter quite a bit,
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  Speaker 1: and what I'm going to be looking for throughout campaign
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  Speaker 1: twenty twenty six in order to understand where we're headed.
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  Speaker 1: In campaign twenty twenty eight, our first attempt at are
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  Speaker 1: true and electing a president for the post Trump era
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  Speaker 1: is why voters will choose the outcome that they choose,
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  Speaker 1: and that uncertainty is this central challenge of twenty twenty six.
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  Speaker 1: Because the election isn't just about what voters think of
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  Speaker 1: Donald Trump. It's also going to be how to talk
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  Speaker 1: to an electorate that is more fragmented, less partisan, as
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: I just outlined with this, more people identifying as independent
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  Speaker 1: than either is R or D, and more exhausted than
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: at any point this century in politics. So twenty twenty
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  Speaker 1: six is functionally going to be a referendum on Trump.
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  Speaker 1: That part is obvious. What's not obvious, or is how
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: you turn a referendum style campaign, How you run a
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: referendum style campaign without alienating the voters who will actually
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: decide it. Because the voters in the middle, you know,
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: maybe they don't like Trump personally, but they don't mind
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: the disruption. Maybe they don't like the disruption, but they
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: like Trump. You know, they're the hardest voters to win over,
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: and they're the decisive voters, and that's where I'm most
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  Speaker 1: interested to see how political messaging gets formulated to go
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  Speaker 1: after that group of voters. Because, you know, coalitions are
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: never united around one belief, they're stitched together from competing motivations. So, yes,
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  Speaker 1: being a resistance Democrat is going to matter to some
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: base voters. Being a Trump Republican is going to matter
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: to some Republican base voters. But elections are going to
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: be one. They're always one. On the margins, they're never
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: you know, yes, how big your political base is determines
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: how many voters in the margins you need to win over.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: But you always need some voters on the margins. And
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: these days, these marginal voters and these margins are filled
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  Speaker 1: with a lot more skeptical independence than we saw even
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: two years ago, very weakly affiliated voters with both parties.
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  Speaker 1: You know. So yeah, I guess I'm leaning Democrat. I
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: guess I'm leaning Republican, but I'd prefer to be an independent.
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  Speaker 1: Those type of folks and people who do not experience
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  Speaker 1: politics the way activists do. Right. I've always said there's
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: a difference between the online political world and the world
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  Speaker 1: everybody else lives in that goes to a safe way
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: and I'll lease a B Jay's at Costco, you name it.
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  Speaker 1: So the real question I have is this, what do
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  Speaker 1: these voters want? Right? Do they want disruption? Do they
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: want competence, do they want bipartisanship? Do they want stability?
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: And here's where I think a lot of analysts, myself included,
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: can get this wrong sometimes because one of the most
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: common mistakes in political analysis is projecting your own values
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: onto the electorate. Right. I know what I look for,
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: all right in a political candidate. I look for character, ethics, competence,
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: and innovation without being reckless, you know. But that's me,
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: and I know other people look at it differently, and
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: I think too often folks, and you know, folks will
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: project their own political what they would like to see
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: out of a politician onto an entire group of swing voters.
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  Speaker 1: I know, all of this is our pieces. What I'm
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: curious to see is what will move what What is
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: it that this group of skeptical voters who continue to
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: vote who continue to tell us what they don't want.
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  Speaker 1: Is there something they will embrace? Is there something to
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: learn in twenty twenty six that can tell us a
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: little bit more about twenty twenty eight. So the bottom
• 10:57
  Speaker 1: line is, I know I'm not the avatar for the
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: American vot but neither is most everybody else, Which brings
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: me to the core strategic question of this cycle. In
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: a fragmented media environment and a polarized political culture, what
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: is the most effective way to win in twenty twenty six?
• 11:15
  Speaker 1: How much base resistance, either left or right do you
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: have to espouse? Well, A lot of it has to do,
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: of course, with the electorate you have to deal with, right.
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: If you're dealing with the primary electorate, that's one thing.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: If you're dealing with a very purple electorate, that's another.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: And what's interesting to me is I think both parties
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: are kind of divided on which path to take. So
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: let me start with the Democrats. It's if you midterm
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: elections are easy to make, referendums easy to run as
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: resistance campaigns. So in some ways resistance is going to
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: feel like the easiest path to midterm success. Maybe it is,
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: But I also sense, and you see it here in
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: this sort of distinction ram of manuals trying to create
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: within the within the world of the president, which is, well,
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: there's the resistance, folks, and then there's the renewal. He
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: calls it renewal. I call it the problem solving wing.
• 12:13
  Speaker 1: So for Democrats' debate is, you know, might be framed
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: as resistance versus governance, but maybe the better way to
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: describe it is Trump accountabiit. How much should you focus
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: on accountability for Trump, the administration and the individual, versus
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: how much should a Democratic candidate in twenty twenty six
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: focus on forward facing problem solving hard stop Now, the
• 12:36
  Speaker 1: best politicians are going to try to do both. But
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: there's a trap there. There's a fine line between defending
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: the rule of law and sounding obsessed with procedure. What
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: one voter sees as accountability, another sees as disruption or worse,
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: political grievance gets dressed up as principle. So abuse of
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: argument power arguments absolutely can end energize the base, don't
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: get me wrong, but they are not always persuasive to
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: voters who want politics to feel less consuming, not more right. So,
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: for instance, I do not think that Democrats sweeping the
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: House and Senate means they have a mandate to impeach
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: and convict Donald Trump. Right, you know, that's sort of
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: you know, I think it's more of they're trying to
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: turn the page. They want to see a check on him.
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: They don't want to have him run rough shot over
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: the Constitution. To me, that is what voters, what the
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: large chunk of voters are trying to say. But we
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: will find out, won't we. But I do have a
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: question that I would love to see every Democrat running
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: for office answer clearly, simply so I know, as a voter,
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: and you know, as a voter, how they're going to
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: behave while in office. It's not a gotcha question to me,
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: it's simply a governing signal. Would you work with Donald Trump?
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: And if so, how would you do it? Because how
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: you answer that question as a candidate tells me how
• 14:04
  Speaker 1: voters tells voters. How you plan to govern in twenty
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: twenty seven and twenty twenty eight. It's in some ways
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: running in twenty twenty it's going to be easier. Cana.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: We're moving on from Donald Trump. Even the Constitution says
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: we're moving on from Donald Trump. But if you're running
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six, you've got to govern with him.
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: And there's a chunk of voters who don't aren't going
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: to sit there and say, oh, yeah, we'll wait till
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: there's unified democratic control or there's no no, no no.
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: They want you solving problems now, they don't want you postponing.
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: We've had enough of this postponement. We've had enough of this.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: So look, I think that some Democrats are going to say,
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: when I asked the question, would you work with Donald Trump?
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: And if so, how, they say no, Because they will
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: argue that even agreeing with him on one issue, say
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: capping credit card rates, like Elizabeth Warren and Donald Trump
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: may may work together on they might say, you're just
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: granting legitimacy to him on everything else that I don't
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: agree with. And I get that argument. Now I happen
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: to disagree that ultimately the voters sent both Donald Trump.
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: You know, I might argue that the voters are twenty
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: twenty four sent Donald Trump to be president, and the
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: voters twenty twenty six may send a bunch of Democrats
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: in Congress, and they're saying, you figure it out, but
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: we do not want one party control because every time
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: they've gotten one party control, they quickly get the other
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: party involved in governing. So that's why I come down
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: on the voters are asking you, whether you like it
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: or not, figure out how to work with them where
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: you can. That said, I get the argument, and I
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: understand the principle you know where I sit doesn't matter.
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: Is that what a majority of the constituents in the
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: in the election you're running in want, And in some
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: cases they may want that, and I get it, But
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: I do think voters deserve to know the difference between
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: refusing to compromise and refusing to govern. And Democrats are
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: going to have to decide how much they want to
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: be resistance warriors and how much they want to be
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: problem solvers. And this will be I think, a brighter
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: divide in twenty twenty eight. It's going to be a
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: you know, it's going to be in some cases you
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: may have to squint to see those differences here. But
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: I'm one who believes and will find out that's why
• 16:26
  Speaker 1: we hold these elections. I don't want to assume I
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: know the answer to hear, but I think ultimately that
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: last group of voters that has waffled, and that has
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: been voting against rather than voting for. I think they're
• 16:41
  Speaker 1: going to be more persuadable on a problem solving than
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: they are in resistance. But we shall see. I tend
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: to believe that ultimately voters are going to decide how
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: they want Donald Trump to be dealt with. They put
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: them there a second time. I think that you can't
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: ignore that if you're on the resistant side of things.
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: So then you ask yourself what you need to answer
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: the question why do voters keep doing Why did voters
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: do it a second time? Why? Right? What wasn't that
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: they weren't satisfied with? And you know, I think you
• 17:19
  Speaker 1: can't keep going down the road. Well, they're just not
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: well informed. I think these days everybody kind of knows
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: where he stands. Everybody kind of knows what you're going
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: to get. So I think you have to sort of
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: deal in the reality that you have, not the one
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: that you wish existed. Now. History suggests that forward looking
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: messages usually do outperform backward looking ones, especially with swing voters.
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: Who's looking to the future, who's building a bridge to
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: the twenty first century? Who's building a bridge to the
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: twentieth century. Right, Trump now is fair and now that's it.
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: Trump's won basically one of the few politicians in my
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: lifetime who's succeeded by constantly really relitigating the past. That
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: is normally not a winner in presidential politics, and he
• 18:05
  Speaker 1: made it a winner in twenty twenty four. In fact,
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: you know, his twenty sixteen campaign wasn't as backward looking
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: as his twenty twenty four campaign, but I would argue
• 18:17
  Speaker 1: it were really simply worked with his base, and then
• 18:20
  Speaker 1: you had reluctant swing voters decide, I don't think Biden
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: and Harrison know how to manage this economy. I'll take Trump.
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: And so that's I think how we ended up where
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: we ended up. But if you assume that most swing
• 18:35
  Speaker 1: voters aren't political diehards, and that they're frankly a bit
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: self interested, right, And I say that descriptively, not critically,
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: I think most voters vote in their self interest, not
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: in the greater interest. Okay, there are you know, I've
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: called them iceed to you know, there's sort of aspirational voters,
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: and there's narcissis, and there's sort of me first, you know,
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: forget America first, me first voters. I think most people
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: vote what's in their own best interest, and then they
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: rationalize it by saying, well, they think it's in the
• 19:09
  Speaker 1: greater good as well, but ultimately they want to know
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: what helps them, not necessarily who won yesterday's political argument.
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• 21:06
  Speaker 1: chuck brings me to political exhaustion. We're now entering the
• 21:14
  Speaker 1: tenth year of the Trump era. I brought this up before.
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: I think the fatigue is real, and I think that's
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: part of why he can't seem to recover from from it,
• 21:23
  Speaker 1: sort of like, oh, he's the same Trump, and so
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: that's why people haven't sort of given they already gave
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: him a second, third, and fourth chance. So I don't
• 21:31
  Speaker 1: know if this is very recoverable, just like with Joe
• 21:33
  Speaker 1: Biden once he lost it after afghanistdate wasn't recoverable because
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: I kind of think he was too known of a
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: figure even though he was a first term president. Hey
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: been vice president, he'd been there. You know, there wasn't
• 21:45
  Speaker 1: there there. There wasn't going to be the same level
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: of patience that a Bill Clinton got, a George W.
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: Bush got, and even the Donald Trump got the first
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: time or what BARACKO or the or the or the
• 21:57
  Speaker 1: benefit of doubt, Barack Obama got the of his first
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: term even though the economy hadn't quite yet turned around,
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: but he got there because he was still seen his
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: new ish to this. So I think this time fatigue
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: is real, and I don't know where that's going. So
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: I think that a turn the page messaging in some
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: form may be more appealing to independence than being seen
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: as perpetually resisting. And I would argue there's a piece
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: of the Republican base that's perpetually resisting the grievance side
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: of things, and on the Democratic side, the Trump resistance.
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: I don't want to say that to say resistance is wrong,
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: and I don't even want to imply that resistance is futile.
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: I think resistance is necessary when it goes up against
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: the Constitution, but I just don't think it's sufficient to
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: win elections. Right. It may be sufficient to win primaries,
• 22:59
  Speaker 1: but I'm not sure wins general elections. Look, none of
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: this is definitive, but I will just tell you in
• 23:06
  Speaker 1: the past, optimism usually wins in elections unless it misreads
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: the mood of the electorate, right. And the truth is,
• 23:12
  Speaker 1: that's something we don't fully know yet is which message
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: is going to land the hardest in twenty twenty six.
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: It could be that we're in such a cranky mood
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: that optimism and trying to turn the page doesn't work
• 23:24
  Speaker 1: because people aren't ready to look ahead. They want to
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: deal with the problems staring them in the face. But
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: that's where that's why I think this is a This
• 23:32
  Speaker 1: might be a bit of a moving target, and why
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: that In my larger thesis here, why I think messaging
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six is not going to be easy
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: because of fragmentation, because I think somewhat resistance and somewhat
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: turned the page, and there's just going to be this
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: isn't going to be as easy as you think. Now,
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: let's turn to the Republicans, because I kind of think
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: they do face a what I call a mirror image dilemma.
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: There's a simple math problem that I have to deal
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: with in primaries, Republican primaries, because the easiest way to
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: win is to make the election about Donald Trump in
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: a primary. Right, if you can be the defender of
• 24:09
  Speaker 1: Trump and trump Ism in the primary and the sort
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: of the big the chief bulwark against anybody trying to
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: get rid of Trump, that's good politics for you in
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: a Republican priory. But the more the election is about Trump,
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: the more you do risk alienating the middle in a
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: general election, especially if you're from a competitive state, including
• 24:27
  Speaker 1: places like Texas or even Iowa or even Kansas. In theory,
• 24:32
  Speaker 1: this should create space for pragmatic Republicans to survive. In practice,
• 24:38
  Speaker 1: partisanship and fear of disloyalty make that nearly impossible. You know,
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: if I were a Republican office holder. It would really
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: piss me off that Trump is allowed to triangulate on
• 24:53
  Speaker 1: any issue whenever he wants. He's allowed to go off
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: the reservation and say, yeah, I'm calling up Elizabeth Warren
• 24:58
  Speaker 1: and we're going to talk about capping credit card interest rates.
• 25:02
  Speaker 1: But if another senator says they want to work with
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: Elizabeth Warren to do X, Y or Z, you know,
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: the loyalty police will be like, there's a rhino. What
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: kind of Soros bribery money has suddenly even slipped into
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: so and so's kool aid drink? Right? So it's it is.
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: It's fascinating with Trump, it's sort of he gets to
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: sort of triangulate and shift and duck and dodge. But
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: if another elected Republican who's actually going to be on
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: the ballot in twenty six attempts it, there's usually some
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: sort of loyalty police that is calling the MAGA cops
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: on these folks. So he can flirt with capping credit
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: card interest rates, but I'm not sure Dan Sullivan can
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: do that. Right, he can break ideological rules without consequence,
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: but good luck if you're John Cornyn and you try
• 25:51
  Speaker 1: to do that, and so you end up with a
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: party right now that they're stuck in a strange trap.
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: Trump can redefine conservatism on the fly, and he does
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: it quite a bit, but anyone running under his banner
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: is punished for trying to do the same. So you
• 26:07
  Speaker 1: have the primary incentives that reward loyalty tests even when
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: those tests weaken candidates for November see Texas Ken Paxton.
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: And then there's governing. Republicans technically control the House. Functionally,
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: they often don't. There's such narrow margins that we've now
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: have had health absences, basic life realities, a car accident,
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: a health issue, this or that that mean the majority
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: is extraordinarily fragile at best. There was a time last
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: week where there were two hundred and thirteen Democrats and
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: two n thirteen Republicans. Neither Republicans didn't have a majority,
• 26:40
  Speaker 1: and they had to be careful which votes they put
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: on the floor, Which puts the party in an interesting
• 26:47
  Speaker 1: place at the moment because there are many Republican incumbents,
• 26:50
  Speaker 1: both in the House and the Senate, who would love
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: one more attempt at legislating before twenty twenty the campaign
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: of twenty twenty six, they'd like to do another reconciliation bill.
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: These you know where you only need fifty votes in
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: the Senate so you can get you know, so your
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: party sort of party line votes and get some stuff done.
• 27:08
  Speaker 1: They did the one big, beautiful bill, but they want
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: something else tangible to run on before a tough midterm.
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: But the problem they got is President Trump appears to
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: be increasingly uninterested in working with Congress at all, even
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: when his party is in charge. I've talked to multiple
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: Republican lawmakers who say they'd like to do a reconciliation bill,
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: but admit the White House doesn't seem to be that
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: interested in it. And if he's not going to move
• 27:34
  Speaker 1: be interested in it, they're not going to be able
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: to get the votes they need. They're not going to
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: be able to define with the what would be and
• 27:38
  Speaker 1: said reconciliation bill and what happens, Well, what's the point
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: of what are Republicans running to do to keep their
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: majority to do what with it? If Donald Trump won't
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: even let them use their majority to do something. This
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: calendar here, So his disengagement doesn't just frustrate lawmakers, it
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: undermines their entire campaign argument. If the President doesn't seem
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: to care about legislating even when Republicans control Congress, then
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: why should voters care about preserving the Republican majority in
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty six. This is the mistake that they're going
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: to make. But you know, by not doing some trying
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: to attempt to do some legislating. Now, maybe the majorities
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: are just too narrow and they don't think a reconciliation
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: bill can succeed, and trying to do one and not
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: getting it done would be a massive political failure. So
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: there's sort of this fear of failure. But I just
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: don't think that, you know, ultimately, if the only thing
• 28:39
  Speaker 1: they end up having to run on is vote Republican
• 28:41
  Speaker 1: to stop impeachment, maybe that excites the president's base a
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: little bit. I just don't know if that is enough
• 28:50
  Speaker 1: to woo a swing voter. We'll see. Trump knows enough
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: about how presidencies work to understand that losing the midterm
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: effectively ends his ability to be any kind of activist president.
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: And yet he doesn't seem ready to help his fellow
• 29:06
  Speaker 1: Republicans actually legislate so they could actually make a case
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: for why they're needed in Congress. And in fact, he's
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: cutting off his own party off at the knees, and
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: if you're trying to We've noticed that a bunch of
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: Republicans are quietly, you know, trying to get distance from
• 29:25
  Speaker 1: Trump where they think it's necessary. Right, you have a
• 29:27
  Speaker 1: growing number of Republicans willing to vote for Obamacare subsidies,
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: growing number of Republicans in the Senate willing to put
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: a check on the War Powers Act when it came
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: to military action in Venezuela, Greenland, etc. You have a
• 29:38
  Speaker 1: growing number of Republicans of the Senate. You don't like
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: what the hell he's messing around with the independence of
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: the Fed. So there's certainly plenty of places Republicans would
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: like to declare some independence, and yet they can't. But
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump can't. Right, he gets to go all over
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: the map. But if a Republican down the ballot attempts
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: to do it, the Rhino police get called. Which also
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: brings me to what's actually happening on the ground. This week,
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: Democrats got a huge recruiting victory out of Alaska. They
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: have a real Senate candidate in a state that is
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: not always easy for them to win the last time
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: they won a senen sat in Alaska, it took an
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: indictment of the sitting senator essentially to make that a
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: plausible But it isn't impossible, especially Alaska has shown it
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: may be. It is certainly a libertarian leaning conservative red state,
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: but emphasis on libertarian. They're very skeptical of government in general,
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: strong government in general, and there's a reason why Lisa
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: Murkowski has sort of in some ways more of the
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: avatar of the Alaska voter than anybody else that's been
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: in power. But it's a big deal to recruit Mary Patello,
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: and she is somebody that what was in her best interest,
• 31:01
  Speaker 1: what wasn't her best interest, might have been running for governor.
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: It's a less partisan race, it's a more Alaska focused race.
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: She wouldn't have to get into the Trump wars, but
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: the fact that she's wanting to take one for the party.
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: This is the harder race. Running for the Senate. She's
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: challenging an incumbent who's no Maga Republican in Dan Sullivan.
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: First time I interviewed him I meet the press, he
• 31:21
  Speaker 1: described himself to me as a McCain Republican. I'm not
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: sure he's going to use that phraseology right now, because
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: that can you know, he's gotten away with looking conservative
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: when he stands next to Lisa Murkowski in Alaska. So
• 31:32
  Speaker 1: I don't think many sort of mainstream conservative Republicans realize,
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: you know, he's much more of a moderate and very
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: much an internationalists on that print, because that's when he
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: told when he said he's a McCain Republican, he really
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: was trying to emphasize the national security side of things.
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: But the bottom line is the recruitment of Peltel putting
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: Alaska in Playts can now plausibly point they need four
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: pick up four Senate seats and hold Michigan in Georgia,
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: They're in New Hampshire and Minnesota. Okay, therese are four
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: vulnerable open seats that they have to defend. One is
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: not open in Georgia, but three the Michigan, Minnesota, in
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: New Hampshire are those aren't easy to defend. I think
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: the light blue states are defensive, easier to defend in
• 32:21
  Speaker 1: a mid term with Trump in the white House than
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: if it were a mid term with Biden in the
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: white House. But the Democrats can now plausibly point to
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: five Republican held pick up opportunities They've got May the
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: Susan Collins seat, which she may or may not seek reelection.
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: Some longtime Collins observers have noted she's not yet filed.
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: Now filing deadline still a couple of months away. Just
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: worth noting North Carolina, we've seen both, I mean, Roy Cooper,
• 32:49
  Speaker 1: the former governor there is raised a s ton of money.
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: Michael Wattley's doing pretty well, but he's still coming up
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: fifty cents to every dollar that Cooper's doing. North Carolina
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: one hundred percent in play. The recruitment has shared. Brown
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: in Ohio puts Ohio in play. You know, he may
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: he's got a path to forty eight. I don't know
• 33:09
  Speaker 1: if he can get to fifty. Buddy, when he's gotten
• 33:12
  Speaker 1: he he is one. Two of his three Senate victories
• 33:16
  Speaker 1: came in midterm years. Presidential years are slightly harder in Ohio, Alaska,
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: as I just point out, and then of course the
• 33:23
  Speaker 1: mess in Texas. You know, if Ken Paxson is the
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: Republican nominee, you know, any Democrats going to keep that competitor,
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: so they actually you know, they need four and they
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: got five in play. And when you've recruited someone, like
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: when you've gotten a recruit like Mary Peltello in Alaska. Well, now,
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: if you're trying to get the outgoing governor of Kansas,
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: Lord Kelly, or the congresswoman in Kansas, Sharise Davids to
• 33:49
  Speaker 1: think about running in the Senate, you can point to
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: Alaska and if you're if you're trying to, you know,
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: decide whether to put some resources into Iowa. I think
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: it's pretty clear that there's enough political tumult and Iowa
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: this year open race for governor or Democrats have a
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: strong candidate that Iowa I think is in place. So
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: that would be a six. Maybe you get a seventh
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: in Kansas. Maybe you get a Jared Moskowitz, a Democratic
• 34:11
  Speaker 1: Congressman from South Florida, to suddenly jump into the Senate race.
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: Now in Florida, maybe you can can put the old
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: Marco Rubio seat which is being held by an appointed
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: senator on that one. The point is is that that
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: recruiting coup in Alaska only potentially opens the door to
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: get a serious recruit in Kansas, get a serious recruit
• 34:34
  Speaker 1: in Florida, maybe even open the door in a Mississippi.
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: But it's bottom line, the Democrats are much further along
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: in putting the Senate in play than I expected at
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: this point in the calendar. Even in six, when they
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: needed six seats, they had to put eight serious in
• 34:57
  Speaker 1: play in order to win the six. At this point
• 35:00
  Speaker 1: in time, nobody thought they could get the six. It
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: was like, how many you know, how close are they
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: going to get? Can they get close enough that they
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: can win the Senate? BA pick up three or four?
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: And that was the conversation at this point in time
• 35:12
  Speaker 1: in that calendar. Well, here we are in January of
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty six, and Democrats already have a path to
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: find five in legitimate five likely a six in Iowa.
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: And we'll see if seven, eight or nine come up.
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: But that's I think that is a reminder of just
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: how precarious this environment is for Republicans going forward. So
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: we'll see. By the way, one more little data point
• 35:39
  Speaker 1: about the four seat pickup for Democrats. Democrats need four
• 35:41
  Speaker 1: seats to flip the Senate. It is worth noting that
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: over the laste hundred years, basically since the start of
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: direct election of senators, the party out of power when
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: they gain Senate seats, the average pickup is four. So
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: Democrats only have to meet the average. They don't have
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: to overperform six, eight, or ten, they only need four.
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: Not easy with this map, but now it's no longer improbable,
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: let alone and possible, so we'll see. Meanwhile, Republicans face
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: a governing reality that's quietly shaping the cycle. They don't
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: really have a workinghouse majority. Their president doesn't seem eager
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: to help them prove why Republican majorities matter to voters
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: in twenty twenty six. So that combination narrow control, legislative stagnation,
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: and a president who prefers unilateral action creates a messaging
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: vacuum for Republican incumbents trying to justify their relevance. So, look,
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: I don't have a clear answer of what message is
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: going to be the best message for success in twenty
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: twenty six For Republicans? Can they triangulate Trump? Unlikely? For Democrats?
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: Is it resistance versus forward problem solving. I'm here to
• 36:53
  Speaker 1: lay out what I'm looking for, and let's see how
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: this plays out. But I do know this twenty twenty
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: six is going to teach us what exact actally works
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: with voters in the Trump era second decade. Does resistance
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: still mobilize enough voters to win. Does exhaustion finally outweigh anger?
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: Do voters want confrontation or competence or competent confrontation? And
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: while we know they want disruption, what does disruption look
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: like in a post Trump world? Boy, we're going to
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: learn a lot. I can't wait for election season to
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: begin in my role as political anthropologists, but I will
• 37:29
  Speaker 1: admit I am there's a reason I call twenty twenty
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: sixth the year we're living dangerously. I am always nervous
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: about what kind of tinder box we are living in.
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: And speaking of said tinderbox, I want to give you
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: a little update on what's happening out of Minnesota. In
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: Minneapolis in particular, Quinnipiac is the first reputable polster to
• 37:52
  Speaker 1: come out of the field national poll asking what voters
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: how voters are reacting to the shooting. And let me
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: just get right to the question as far I'm going
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: to read you the exact question as it was worded,
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: as far as you are aware, do you think this
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: shooting was justified or not justified? Thirty five percent called
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: it justified, fifty three percent said not justified. Only twelve
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: percent preferred not to answer it. Didn't know. Let me
• 38:23
  Speaker 1: give you a little party breakdown on that. Among Republicans,
• 38:26
  Speaker 1: seventy seven percent called it justified, ten percent said not justified.
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: Among Democrats, it was ninety two percent not justified, four
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: percent justified. Among independents, well, they look like the overall majority, right.
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: Fifty nine percent of Independence said it was not justified.
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: Just twenty eight percent of Independence said it was justified.
• 38:45
  Speaker 1: And there is a massive gender gap, as you might
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: expect when the victim of this shooting is a mother. Anyway,
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: sixty one percent of women said this was not justified.
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: Thirty percent of women said it was a narrow plurality
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: of forty two percent said it was justified, forty one
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: percent excuse me, forty four percent it was a nar floral.
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: He said it was not justified, Forty four percent said
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: it was not justified. Of men, forty two percent said
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: it was justified. But that is a massive so basically
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: a two point difference between justified and not justified among
• 39:18
  Speaker 1: men and a thirty one point gap among those two women.
• 39:23
  Speaker 1: It is, as a friend of mine, Dante Cheney point out,
• 39:26
  Speaker 1: if we you know, he and I have been talking
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: about this for a long time that what is the
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: what is the magabase? I think it's thirty five percent, right,
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: that thirty five percent saying it's justified. That's the magabase.
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: That's not necessarily the Republican base per se, but maybe
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: it is Trump's Republican party. Few other notes from this poll.
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: Eighty two percent of respondents were aware of the incident.
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: Just to put that in context, that's sky high. That
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: basically means everybody is aware of the incident. They may
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: have gotten a different you know, seen it differently depending
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: on where they get their news. But that is that
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: is saturation in this fragmented day and age. Eighty two percent.
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: And it was across the board, right, it was eighty
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: three percent of Republicans had seen or heard about the video,
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: eighty one percent of Democrats, eighty four of independence. It
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: was across the board. So this this is a story
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: that has penetrated. This is not a online story that
• 40:19
  Speaker 1: went viral. This is something I think bigger than that.
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: The Quinnipiac did ask a couple of proved disapproved questions.
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: Christie no Her handling every job as Secretary of Homeland
• 40:30
  Speaker 1: Security thirty six percent approof fifty two percent disapproved, and
• 40:33
  Speaker 1: then do you approve a disapprove of the way US
• 40:36
  Speaker 1: Immigration and Customs Enforcement aka ICE is enforcing immigration laws.
• 40:40
  Speaker 1: Forty percent approved, fifty seven percent disapproved. I think it's
• 40:43
  Speaker 1: interesting that ICE has a higher approval rating than NOME,
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: but also a higher disapproval rating than NOME. For what
• 40:52
  Speaker 1: it's worth, bottom line is that there was no there's
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: barely anybody who doesn't have an opinion on ICE. Just
• 40:57
  Speaker 1: three percent said they didn't have an opinion versus Christie NOME,
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: where there's twelve percent. But the point of this poll is,
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: look Quinnipiac. If you wanted to tell me, Quinnepiac always
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: seems to lean you know, one or two points democratic.
• 41:09
  Speaker 1: That's true, but it's a very consistent number. The point
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: is this is a double digit gap. So I don't
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: think there's any you know, the fact that there's a
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: clear majority, and it's a clear majority of independence and
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: massive majority of Democrats, and then you see the Republican
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: the other way. You know, I look at any of
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: these sort of quote whose narrative is winning or whose
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: issue profile is winning? I just always focus on the
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: independence because your group of independence, especially with Quinnipiac, quantifies
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: independence they include leaners, but it's usually an even number
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: of lean D independence and lean R independence. That's a
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: big number, and that's that's a huge gap. The point
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: is this is not playing well with any voter outside
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: the base, and it's it's hard to see how this
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: gets better for the administration, how this gets better for
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: Ice And I think, you know, I wonder, I wonder
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: if Christy Nome is going to be the I wonder.
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: You know, it's funny, you know, Donald Trump has had
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: this whole don't know firings because he doesn't want to
• 42:20
  Speaker 1: create narratives that say this person failed at their job. Right,
• 42:25
  Speaker 1: That's why Pete Haiksat has survived his incompetency at the Pentagon.
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: I wonder if Christy nom number. You know, one thing
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump cares about is that stuff, right, is poll writings.
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: And you know, she's been a terrible spokesperson for DHS.
• 42:44
  Speaker 1: Her immediate decision to come out and defend maybe good
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: base politics for her if she wants to run for
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: president in the MAGA primary. But it is causing all
• 42:54
  Speaker 1: sorts of problems for the image of the of the
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: party as a whole, and it's actually going to set
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: back you know, the more the tactics of immigration enforcement
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: are the story, the more they're going to, you know,
• 43:07
  Speaker 1: lose the larger argument about immigration and whether there's anybody
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: that realizes, hey, you kind of you need to put
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: this story away. Christy Nome is an easy scapegoate here.
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: The Donald Trump first term would have John Kelly as
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: chief of staff, would have probably talked him into dumping Gnome.
• 43:27
  Speaker 1: At this point, I think that there seems to be
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: less of that, but I'm guessing, you know, she's I
• 43:36
  Speaker 1: do think she's in a precarious spot because she's she's
• 43:39
  Speaker 1: not well liked in the West wing circle. There's some
• 43:41
  Speaker 1: that do like Noome, some that are skeptical, some that
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: are mad about Corey Lewandowski, who's a close political aid,
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: always rumored to be even closer than that. I don't
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: want to dabble in that, but that does color the perception.
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: You know, this is not about what you know. Any
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: of you listening might say, well, why wouldn't he fire Nome?
• 44:02
  Speaker 1: She's in competent, she's not good at this job, et cetera,
• 44:04
  Speaker 1: et cetera. That isn't the way mag the Trump world works.
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: But she's already She's already not in the best place
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: with many in Trump world. So if this continues to
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: be a political problem overall for the president, she becomes
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: when you look at numbers like this, she becomes a
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: potential easy scapegoat and it sort of exit ramp if
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: he kind of wants to quote unquote turn the page
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: on this. But maybe he doesn't. Maybe they think this
• 44:30
  Speaker 1: is a good fight for them. I don't see it,
• 44:36
  Speaker 1: And I think this initiapoling shows you that, and you
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: know how it's not You know it's not good politics.
• 44:43
  Speaker 1: Find me an elected Republican sitting in a swing district
• 44:47
  Speaker 1: who has defended it. You're not going to find one.
• 44:51
  Speaker 1: Let me sneak of a break. When we come back,
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: meet the new centrist hope. I guess if you want
• 44:58
  Speaker 1: to call it that. If if there is such thing
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: as a center lane in California politics, is John Slavitt
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: the answer when we come back, having good life insurance
• 45:11
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• 45:15
  Speaker 1: sixteen when my father passed away. We didn't have any money.
• 45:18
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• 45:21
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• 46:47
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• 46:53
  Speaker 1: All Right, it is Wednesday, which means I'm bringing back
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: the top five lists, Top five, top top five. I
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: promise most of my top five lists are going to
• 47:07
  Speaker 1: be you know, sometimes it'll be politically related, top five
• 47:11
  Speaker 1: Senate seat pickups, maybe top five states that could flip
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: on governor's races, and I'll do all of that. And
• 47:17
  Speaker 1: that's coming up, and I'll start back in on that
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: in the next couple of weeks. But man, I got
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: I got orange and green fever. All right. I am
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: all about the U right now. I am all about
• 47:32
  Speaker 1: the Hurricanes. You know, those of you that know me
• 47:34
  Speaker 1: know college football is level of importance in my life
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: is way too by. Okay, it's probably a borderline sickness.
• 47:44
  Speaker 1: I fully, I fully do that. So but I feel
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: like I have one more opportunity to be totally at
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: Cane's homer. Here use my top five lists to talk
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: about something that's quite important to people that care about
• 47:59
  Speaker 1: Miami her Ricanes football. And I'd like to think this
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: should matter a little bit to even folks care about
• 48:03
  Speaker 1: college football, and that is where does this Miami team
• 48:06
  Speaker 1: should they win the national title and upset Indiana, And
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: apparently everybody thinks Indiana is going to win and win
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: big is the is the point spread keeps going up?
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: Apparently nobody is using their own eyes to see how
• 48:22
  Speaker 1: the Miami Hurricanes football team has performed. But I understand
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: the You know, those that think Indiana is going to
• 48:29
  Speaker 1: blow out Miami probably thought Oregon and Alabama were national
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: title contenders. Memo to self, I never thought they were
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: national title contenders. But I digress. So where would this
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty five team fit? Because if this team wins
• 48:43
  Speaker 1: a national title, they will do something that a Miami
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: Hurricanes national title team has never done. They have won
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: a national title with two losses. Miami has had five
• 48:53
  Speaker 1: national titles famously, three of them were undefeated seasons, two
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: of them were one loss seasons, and it is so
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: it is it is one of those that it's unusual
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: for them to do two. Of course, in this playoff format.
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: This is now going to become probably more common, not
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: less common. We will have more and more two lost champions.
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: Question is how many? You know how many over time?
• 49:22
  Speaker 1: But I think you're going to see probably half this
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: field will be one los. You know, half of them
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: will be undefeated, sir. One lossers. Probably a lot more
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: one lossers than undefeated, and about half the field will
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: be two losses. If it gets to twenty four, we'll
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: have some three loss teams sneak in there. But I'm
• 49:36
  Speaker 1: not sure three loss teams will ever make it into
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: the national title. So where do you rank them? Right? Look,
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: the number one all time Miami Hurricanes national title team
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: is the one that many consider the greatest college football
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: team of all time, and that is the two thousand
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: and one Miami Hurricanes. This is a team that had
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: a running back room that included at least one Hall
• 49:59
  Speaker 1: of Famer for sure, and Frank Gore. Arguably Clinton Portis
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: is still going to get considered, and he had Willis
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: McGahee who was a first round draft pick. It was
• 50:07
  Speaker 1: just as deep of a room. You had a wide
• 50:09
  Speaker 1: receiver tandem in Andre Johnson, who ends up who should
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: be in the Hall of Fame. I think he just
• 50:16
  Speaker 1: got into the Hall of Fame. You had a dev
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: It just was something. I think thirty eight guys on
• 50:21
  Speaker 1: that team ended up in the NFL, some absurd number
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: like that. It was probably the most talented team I
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: Amy ever had, and in hindsight, it was a team
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: that coached themselves. No offense to Larry Coker. He look
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: he was the offensive coordinator turned head coach after Butch
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: Davis left for the pros the year before. And in
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: some ways it's a disappointing team. While this team won
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: the national title, this is a team that arguably should
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: have gotten to play for the national title the year
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: before but didn't due to a bizarre computer glitch, and
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: lost a national title the next year due to a
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: questionable Passinger feararents call against Ohio State. The point is
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: that three year entity there. There's nothing like it. So
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: that's what to me, why that team trump's LSU when
• 51:09
  Speaker 1: you're trying to compare LSU twenty nineteen. The other team
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: that has thought of is one of the greatest. And
• 51:14
  Speaker 1: this is why even if Indiana wins the whole thing
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: sixteen and oh is impressive, don't get me wrong, But
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: I don't think the lack of NFL talent compared to
• 51:24
  Speaker 1: the Miami twenty oh one team and the LSU twenty
• 51:27
  Speaker 1: nineteen team, to me, is the differentiator. Sixteens and oh
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: is impressive. They deserve to be in one of the
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: five all time greatest, so I'm going to give them that,
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: But I don't think they cracked the top two conversation
• 51:39
  Speaker 1: between Miami oh one and LSU nineteen. So going back
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: to MI, Miami top five. So that's we know the
• 51:45
  Speaker 1: two thousand and one team is number one, So what's
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: number two? Well, the number two teams Jimmy Johnson's loan
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: national title team. That was the eighty seven national title team.
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: This is the team they went twelve and oh. This
• 51:56
  Speaker 1: was This was the year after the infamous fatigues deplaning
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: in the Fiesta Bowl with Jerome Brown and that incredible
• 52:06
  Speaker 1: defensive line that they had there. To this day, how
• 52:09
  Speaker 1: Miami lost that game to Penn State is beyond me.
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: Had Vinnie Testaverdi just handed the ball off once to
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: Alonzo Highsmith inside the ten and that final drive Miami
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: scores wins a game, and that eighty sixteen is considered
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: one of the greatest of all time. And I'm going
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: to put a pin in that eighty sixteen because I
• 52:27
  Speaker 1: want to talk about them in what if Miami doesn't
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: win the national title conversation. So the number two team
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: of all times at eighty seven Miami National Title team
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: twelve and zero. I was the first national title game.
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: I got to attend to watch them win in person,
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: the eighty three to one. I was not there in person.
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: My father wanted to watch it at home, so we
• 52:45
  Speaker 1: sold our tickets. We actually drove to the Orange Bowl
• 52:48
  Speaker 1: to sell to scout the tickets. My fifty three year
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: old self is going, what are you doing, Dad? Why
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: did we not go to that game? But I, you know,
• 52:57
  Speaker 1: the twelve year old version of me, I was in charge.
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: He was in charge, So we didn't go. So they're
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: number two, and you know, it's historical status. This is
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: when people think of the U. This is the team.
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: The eighty seven team is the U. It's Michael Irvin,
• 53:14
  Speaker 1: it's Jimmy Johnson, this is the U. Okay, that's that team.
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: Number three is the nineteen ninety one twelve and ozho team.
• 53:25
  Speaker 1: It's a team that had to share a national title
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: if you with washing the undefeated Washington Huskies. This was
• 53:33
  Speaker 1: among the results that sort of after it was two
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: years in a row that we had split national titles.
• 53:38
  Speaker 1: Nineteen ninety the national title was split between Colorado and
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: Georgia Tech, and in nineteen ninety one the title was
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: split between Miami and Washington. And that's when everybody's like,
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: we've got to get rid of this. We've got to
• 53:49
  Speaker 1: have some system that at least lets the two best
• 53:51
  Speaker 1: teams play each other. So let's have at it, right
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: and you talk to them. I have friends in Seattle
• 53:56
  Speaker 1: who will argued to this day that Washington team would
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: have easily handled Miami, and of course I think the opposite.
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: But it was a that was that was Miami, the program,
• 54:09
  Speaker 1: that was the machine, that was the team that just
• 54:12
  Speaker 1: sort of couldn't you know, they just it was never flashy.
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: It was this Dennis Erickson offense, which was kind of unique.
• 54:19
  Speaker 1: It was a one back system and Gino Tretta, who
• 54:23
  Speaker 1: won the Heisman Trophy that year, was just maketually won
• 54:27
  Speaker 1: the Heisman Trophy the the year after. But he was
• 54:32
  Speaker 1: he just was such a great point guard quarterback. I
• 54:35
  Speaker 1: don't house to describe it. But that's and he knew
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: this offense better than anybody else. The number four all
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: time teams one I've already referenced. It's nineteen eighty three
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: eleven on one team. You know, I'll never forget in
• 54:47
  Speaker 1: something standard were when my father and I were watching
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: the Florida we played the Miami lost its first game
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: of the season that year to Florida. We got killed.
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: Well it's twenty eighth to three, and I remember my
• 54:57
  Speaker 1: dad saying is And at the time, I thought he
• 54:59
  Speaker 1: was just giving me hope and he says, no, no, no,
• 55:02
  Speaker 1: this Bernie Cosark because we started this freshman quarterback named
• 55:05
  Speaker 1: Bernie Cosar. He said, this guy's going to be great.
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, you know, he made some amazing passes, balls
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: were dropped. This is going to be an interesting season. Well,
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: guess what, we didn't lose another game. And this is
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: of course, I referenced this the other day. The last
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: time Miami was an underdog playing for the national title
• 55:20
  Speaker 1: in their home stadium, they were facing a team whose
• 55:23
  Speaker 1: schools colors were red and white, and it was the
• 55:25
  Speaker 1: Nebraska team. They were double digit favorites. Maybe one of
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: the greatest college football championship games of all time thirty
• 55:33
  Speaker 1: one to thirty tom Osbourne. Ever, the competitor goes for
• 55:36
  Speaker 1: two rather than the tie. But you know what, it
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: wouldn't have mattered if he'd gone for the tie. Bernie
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: Cosar had forty five seconds left when we got the
• 55:43
  Speaker 1: ball back. We were winning that game. He'd had driven
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: us down the field to get the winning field goal.
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: I never I have no doubt in my mind. And
• 55:51
  Speaker 1: that brings me to number five. If Miami wins, I
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: think this team will go there because it will be
• 55:59
  Speaker 1: the resurrection to It will be the team that brought
• 56:01
  Speaker 1: Miami back, and it will be the team that had
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: to beat more great teams than any other national title
• 56:07
  Speaker 1: team ever. If Miami beats Indiana, they'll have beaten number
• 56:10
  Speaker 1: one Indiana, Number two, Ohio, State, number six, Old Miss,
• 56:13
  Speaker 1: number seven, Texas A, and m oh let's not forget
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame. They will have won three SEC games, beaten
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: three different SEC opponents. They'll have beaten two different Big
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: Ten opponents. Obviously, they didn't win the eight CEC because
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: of the bizarre diebreaker rules, which would always is going
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: to be an awkward by the way comment under this
• 56:39
  Speaker 1: team but it is. I do think when you look,
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: there is no national title team that will have had
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: to deal with the gauntlet that And by the way,
• 56:51
  Speaker 1: this is going to be the new normal, right going
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: through a gauntlet now is the only way you're gonna
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: win national title. You're going to have to beat three
• 56:59
  Speaker 1: or two. But you know, in some ways Indiana had
• 57:02
  Speaker 1: to beat Ohio State to get its by You're going
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: to need to win to defeat three great top ten
• 57:10
  Speaker 1: teams to win a national title. Now at the end
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: of the season, that's just something that the system didn't
• 57:17
  Speaker 1: force that to happen before now, so that's why it
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: is unique. But I'm going to put that team now
• 57:24
  Speaker 1: if they lose. I do think this team is going
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: to go into the conversation with the eighty six team
• 57:32
  Speaker 1: and the two thousand and two team and the two
• 57:34
  Speaker 1: thousand team, three other Miami teams that arguably had the
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: most talent of anybody in the country, but somehow didn't
• 57:43
  Speaker 1: win the national title either. They weren't allowed to play
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: for it due to a computer glitch. In two thousand,
• 57:49
  Speaker 1: a weird flag is thrown, and like in two thousand
• 57:53
  Speaker 1: for the two thousand and three Fiesta, Bowl or they
• 57:56
  Speaker 1: run into the Hallmark movie that is Fernando Mendoza. But
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: there you go. If this Miami team wins, I will
• 58:04
  Speaker 1: put them as our fifth, which means it's over and
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: above the eighty nine team. So it would you know,
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: it would bump one. You know. The eighty nine team
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: is sort of, you know, the the least celebrated, and
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: that's probably not fair. This was Craig Erickson was the quarterback.
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: It's the least celebrated, and yet in some ways it's it.
• 58:27
  Speaker 1: When you look at that roster, it was just as
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: deep with NFL talent as the eighty sevent team, the
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: ninety one team, the ninety two team, or the one team.
• 58:38
  Speaker 1: All right, enough of that, Let's do some Q and
• 58:40
  Speaker 1: A from you, and I will limit the college football
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: after this. You just gotta you gotta give me one
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: more week man. They actually made the next all of
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: my bloviating about the Hurricanes. And what's funny is I've
• 58:55
  Speaker 1: gotten some emails from some of you who I think
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: could have given two shits about college football before starting
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: listening my podcasts, and you now become weirdly invested. Thank you,
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: I really appreciate it. You've sent some incredible notes, and
• 59:07
  Speaker 1: it's so clear some of you you you seem to
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: care because you know I care, and I know you
• 59:12
  Speaker 1: really don't care, but that means something. So thank you
• 59:15
  Speaker 1: and let me know when I should be rooting for
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: your teams. I will do that for you, I promise.
• 59:27
  Speaker 1: All Right, let's go to some Q and a some
• 59:30
  Speaker 1: ass chuck ass chuck all right, Adam from DC rights
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: listening to you discuss super Pac money and negative ads.
• 59:43
  Speaker 1: I'm sure I am naive and I've had the had
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: this thought for a while, but in today's climate, what
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: it Candida gain any traction by just saying I will
• 59:49
  Speaker 1: only talk about me and I'm not going to do
• 59:51
  Speaker 1: negative ads. I've often thought doing so would be a breakthrough.
• 59:55
  Speaker 1: Adam from DC and sticking with your college football theme,
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: fire up chips, right, Look, you know you would hope
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: that this would work. But there's a reason negative ads.
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: No everybody says they hate negative ads, everybody says they
• 1:00:11
  Speaker 1: don't want negative ads, and yet negative ads work. Right,
• 1:00:15
  Speaker 1: Just think about how social media works on your brain.
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: Think about how if you've ever had a performance review
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: from a boss and they've told you nine things you
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: do well one thing that you can work on, and
• 1:00:29
  Speaker 1: five more things that they love what you do. What's
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: the one thing you're going to remember the negative? It's
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: the human it's it's just the human brain. You know.
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: We will process information. We will remember something in a
• 1:00:43
  Speaker 1: negative context more than we'll remember something in a positive context.
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: Do I wish we were different than that? I do.
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: Now here's what I would say to sort of take
• 1:00:58
  Speaker 1: your idea and massage it a little bit. I think
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: the candidate that is willing to do their own attack
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: ads and not use third party nonsense, that might be
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 1: an interesting game changer, you know. So say, look, here's
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: I'm going to respond to it. I Look, my opponent
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: is saying some ridiculous stuff. Normally this is when you
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: have some dark money group from Americans for Loving America,
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: paid for by Americans for Loving America, who will tell
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: you what a creeper, terrible person so and so it is.
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 1: Here's what I'm gonna tell you. My opponent's not a
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 1: terrible person. They just have terrible ideas. And let me
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 1: tell you why this idea is terrible. Point being is,
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: I do think there is upside to owning your message,
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: whether it's positive, or negative outsourcing. Negative I think is
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: something that is pays fewer and fewer dividends over time.
• 1:02:04
  Speaker 1: And believe it or not, if you really want a
• 1:02:07
  Speaker 1: message to penetrate about your political opponent, then have the
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: guts to do it yourself. And you're probably going to
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: get more traction if you're willing to do it yourself,
• 1:02:16
  Speaker 1: because actually you'll get some earned media going, hey, it's
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: kind of unusual, but at least this person's standing by
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: their own negative ads. I mean, how many times do
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 1: you see this construction of a negative ad where they'll have,
• 1:02:26
  Speaker 1: you know, some anonymous voiceover say, you know, John SCHMENGHI
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: does nothing but absorb special interest money, and then all
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 1: of a sudden, Hi, I'm Jane Doe, and are you
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: tired of all this Washington nonsense? You're like, wait a minute,
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: didn't you just create Washington nonsense with your terrible TV
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: at you know? So that's what I think. I do
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: think maybe more authenticity in how and how your negative
• 1:02:51
  Speaker 1: message is delivered might actually pay more dividends, and might
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: be more realistic and actually might actually cut down on
• 1:02:57
  Speaker 1: the personalizing of the negativity so much. But I'm not
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: there on the larger idea that you have that somehow
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 1: just people that have taken I'm not going to do this.
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to do that. Your opponents will. Voters
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: claim they like it, but they never reward the candidate
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: who does it. Next question comes from Mike Vera, and
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: he asks do you think more traditional Republicans are missing
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: a chance to push back on Trump and articulate a
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: clear alternative vision for the party, one that rejects maga's
• 1:03:25
  Speaker 1: reckless form policy, self enrichment, and big government impulses. Could
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: someone stand up for the popular parts while denouncing the
• 1:03:31
  Speaker 1: rest in Bill Biomanham for twenty twenty eight. Also, what
• 1:03:34
  Speaker 1: if Bobby Boden had left FSU for Alabama in the
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: eighties or nineties? How might that have re shaped college football?
• 1:03:39
  Speaker 1: That's a fun one if I'll get to the college
• 1:03:41
  Speaker 1: football in a second. So this actually this question, and
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 1: I'm glad I have it in here because it dovetails
• 1:03:48
  Speaker 1: with the opening of this podcast for this episode. So
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 1: I don't think you can do it yet what you're suggesting,
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: but I do think the appetite for this among Republicans
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: could be greater if Democrats sweep the midterms. I think
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 1: if Democrats sweep the midterms, there is going to be
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: a belief that maybe it's time for an alternative to Mega.
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: Maybe MAGA has punched itself out, maybe this is too
• 1:04:21
  Speaker 1: exhausted and so, but you also get at something else.
• 1:04:28
  Speaker 1: I do think, you know, I do think that a
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: successful pivot from Trump can't be backwards. You can't say
• 1:04:39
  Speaker 1: we need to restore return That's not what voters know.
• 1:04:45
  Speaker 1: Voters wanted. Look, they voted for Trump's disruption in twenty sixteen.
• 1:04:51
  Speaker 1: They brought him back because they didn't like what Biden did.
• 1:04:54
  Speaker 1: It didn't necessarily means they loved what Trump did either,
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 1: but what they did want was was disruption, not restoration.
• 1:05:04
  Speaker 1: So I think the first successful post Mega post Trump
• 1:05:11
  Speaker 1: message will be similar to how you outline it, which
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: is I don't think, you know, which is sort of like,
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: you know, Donald Trump when he came down that escalator
• 1:05:22
  Speaker 1: was a breath of fresh air that the conservative movement needed.
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 1: But like any political movement, it's in over its head
• 1:05:29
  Speaker 1: on some things, and it's and it's celebrating some things
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 1: that are just not good for the country, like this
• 1:05:35
  Speaker 1: reckless form policy. You know, while I like the President's disruption.
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 1: I didn't like the self enrichment. I think you can
• 1:05:44
  Speaker 1: if you if because you're you're still going to have
• 1:05:48
  Speaker 1: a substantial number of base Republican voters or aren't going
• 1:05:52
  Speaker 1: to be ready to outright reject the last twelve years
• 1:05:55
  Speaker 1: of MEGA, but they're going to look for somebody who
• 1:05:59
  Speaker 1: is respectful of the MAGA movement but ready to ready
• 1:06:04
  Speaker 1: to go forward or turn the page in some form
• 1:06:07
  Speaker 1: or another. So I do think in twenty eight now,
• 1:06:11
  Speaker 1: I actually think your advice should be what It's what
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: I would do if I were John Cornyn, but he's
• 1:06:18
  Speaker 1: kind of stuck in a primary at the moment. It's
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 1: what I think about doing if I were Dan Sullivan
• 1:06:23
  Speaker 1: in Alaska and he's I'm curious, you know, if a
• 1:06:29
  Speaker 1: Republican chooses to go down that road, is Trump going
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: to punish him? I am in search of the twenty
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: six Republican that attempts to triangulate Trump a little bit
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: versus trying so too hard to school, you know, hug Trump.
• 1:06:47
  Speaker 1: Like in theory. Cornyn has the resume to do it,
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: but he is so in need of Trump to potentially
• 1:06:57
  Speaker 1: get him out of this Ken Paxton box that he
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: that he's not ready to implement it. And yet the
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: you know, this is where Cornyn's in such a such
• 1:07:06
  Speaker 1: a box, right. You know, the most vulnerable part of
• 1:07:10
  Speaker 1: Ken Paxton is his corruption. But how do you separate
• 1:07:13
  Speaker 1: Paxton corruption from Trump corruption? And it's you know, I
• 1:07:20
  Speaker 1: can't wait to hear what John Cornyn has to say
• 1:07:23
  Speaker 1: about Republican politics after he's out of Republican politics. And
• 1:07:26
  Speaker 1: I'm just going to leave it at that. I forgot
• 1:07:28
  Speaker 1: about the Bobby Boden. Bobby Bobben and Alabama. What does
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: it mean. It means Alabama when it plays for more
• 1:07:36
  Speaker 1: than one national title in the nineties, That's what it means.
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: That was a real possibility. I believe before it was
• 1:07:43
  Speaker 1: before the hire of Gene Stallings when they brought Stallings
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 1: was sort of a bear guy that they brought back
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: and he got them one title in a in a
• 1:07:54
  Speaker 1: game that they Miami just was little Mimmy was too
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 1: cocky for their for their own for themselves in ninety
• 1:08:02
  Speaker 1: two when they lost that game in the Sugar Bowl.
• 1:08:06
  Speaker 1: But I believe it was before the Stallings hire that
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: they really and and I think if you go back,
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 1: if you talk to old time FSU folks. I think
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: they thought Goden was gone, right, that this was going
• 1:08:20
  Speaker 1: to happen, and you know, the you know Alabama and
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 1: it was just like Notre Dame, those were just over here.
• 1:08:29
  Speaker 1: And even though it had been a while at the
• 1:08:31
  Speaker 1: time when Stallings gets hired, I think it had been
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 1: at least over a decade since Alabama last was relevant.
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 1: Bear Bryan, I think retired in eighty two, if I'm
• 1:08:41
  Speaker 1: not mistaken, dies within months of retiring, and then they
• 1:08:45
  Speaker 1: went that rape. They hire former New York Giants coach
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: Ray Perkins, right, and that didn't go so well. I
• 1:08:52
  Speaker 1: think if he joins, if he takes that Alabama job right,
• 1:08:55
  Speaker 1: because at the time, Florida State couldn't break through. They
• 1:08:59
  Speaker 1: were always sort of you know, either getting inched out,
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 1: edged out by Miami or edged out by Notre Dame.
• 1:09:05
  Speaker 1: And so with the resources that Alabama had, you know,
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: the ease back then, the SEC was not that great.
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: It was kind of a you know two or three
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 1: teen conference at best, smaller conference too, by the way,
• 1:09:19
  Speaker 1: So there was you know, he was going to get
• 1:09:21
  Speaker 1: to that Sugar Bowl, which would have meant playing for titles.
• 1:09:24
  Speaker 1: So probably means Alabama has two more national titles because
• 1:09:29
  Speaker 1: how much how many to get at Florida State by
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 1: staying in Florida State. He got two right, the ninety
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 1: three and ninety nine. So yeah, my guess is those
• 1:09:38
  Speaker 1: two national titles go to Alabama. And more importantly, it's
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 1: possible Florida State football is never Florida State football, right,
• 1:09:47
  Speaker 1: and it's good in the long run for Florida State football.
• 1:09:50
  Speaker 1: That obviously that Bowden chose to stay. So there's there's
• 1:09:53
  Speaker 1: my take on where that would head. All right, Now,
• 1:09:57
  Speaker 1: let me get from John from Princeton, Big Fans and
• 1:09:59
  Speaker 1: s starco Jiant. It's a Democrat. I feel the party
• 1:10:01
  Speaker 1: has struggled to choose strong leaders. You think Biden catered
• 1:10:04
  Speaker 1: too much to the far left, and if so, did
• 1:10:06
  Speaker 1: that help hurt the party's appeal to blue collar voters.
• 1:10:09
  Speaker 1: I think that Biden and by extension, his chief of
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: staff Ron Klain, mistaken online activism for where the base was.
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 1: I think it was a miscalculation. I think they thought
• 1:10:24
  Speaker 1: that what they were seeing online, what they were seeing
• 1:10:26
  Speaker 1: in the activist community was really directionally where the party
• 1:10:29
  Speaker 1: was headed. I think this is I think it didn't
• 1:10:33
  Speaker 1: help that Biden didn't really run in a primary, didn't
• 1:10:36
  Speaker 1: really interact much with voters because of COVID and because
• 1:10:40
  Speaker 1: of how quickly the primary sort of shut down there
• 1:10:43
  Speaker 1: after the Clyburn endorsement. COVID hits and everybody just sort
• 1:10:46
  Speaker 1: of drops out. So I think he didn't have a
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: feel for the voter. And that's not just him. I
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: think Trump didn't either. I think when you just you
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 1: had to run virtually and well virtually, it felt as
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 1: if the the Democrats have moved much further to the
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 1: left than they actually did, so I think that had
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: something to do with it. But I absolutely look, Biden
• 1:11:08
  Speaker 1: got captured by the left. It wasn't Biden's administration. He
• 1:11:12
  Speaker 1: he used Elizabeth Warren and Bernie Sanders to make staffing decisions, which,
• 1:11:17
  Speaker 1: you know, personnel is policy, personnel is ideology. You know
• 1:11:21
  Speaker 1: who you put there, And so he himself, you know,
• 1:11:26
  Speaker 1: you know, the theory of Biden was to be the moderate.
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 1: That's why he won both the primary and that's why
• 1:11:33
  Speaker 1: he won the general. But he governed as if he
• 1:11:36
  Speaker 1: thought the party had m moved much further to the
• 1:11:39
  Speaker 1: left than they did, and I think that that's that's
• 1:11:42
  Speaker 1: why they we got a second Donald Trump term pure
• 1:11:46
  Speaker 1: and simple. All right, This comes from Graham. With the
• 1:11:52
  Speaker 1: closing of the CPB and the zeroing out of public
• 1:11:55
  Speaker 1: funding corporation of public broadcasting, how is public media likely
• 1:11:59
  Speaker 1: to continue on? You have a ton of local stations
• 1:12:01
  Speaker 1: that still exists, correct, Will public media arise from the ashes? Well?
• 1:12:04
  Speaker 1: I think it will. I think you're going to see.
• 1:12:08
  Speaker 1: My guess is you're going to see. All right, I'm
• 1:12:14
  Speaker 1: gonna put this in air quotes, good private equity help.
• 1:12:19
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that's good, right. I don't know
• 1:12:22
  Speaker 1: if there's going to be demands for efficiencies that end
• 1:12:25
  Speaker 1: up hurting. But the the fact that so many local
• 1:12:33
  Speaker 1: radio stations, local media are so necessary in so many
• 1:12:36
  Speaker 1: rural parts. I think the the collection at least on
• 1:12:41
  Speaker 1: the on the on the MPR side of things, I
• 1:12:44
  Speaker 1: think has got more value than frankly on the television
• 1:12:47
  Speaker 1: side of things, on the video side of things. On
• 1:12:50
  Speaker 1: that front, so I could see. I do think you're
• 1:12:55
  Speaker 1: going to see more public private If we want public
• 1:12:58
  Speaker 1: media to survive, that some sort of public private private
• 1:13:06
  Speaker 1: equity partnership is coming in some form or another. Maybe
• 1:13:13
  Speaker 1: it serves as a lifeline, Maybe a democratic Congress helps
• 1:13:16
  Speaker 1: to create some sort of private equity tax break that
• 1:13:19
  Speaker 1: encourages investment in local media. You know. I know, in
• 1:13:25
  Speaker 1: my attempts to try to see to try to improve
• 1:13:28
  Speaker 1: and get some local media startups off the ground, coming
• 1:13:31
  Speaker 1: up with some tax incentive for businesses you know who
• 1:13:35
  Speaker 1: advertise in local media get a tax break. Maybe they
• 1:13:38
  Speaker 1: you know, get different things where you create in the
• 1:13:42
  Speaker 1: same way, you try to help a a a a
• 1:13:49
  Speaker 1: lesser developed part of a city, and you create sort
• 1:13:52
  Speaker 1: of an empowerment zone where it's a tax rezone in
• 1:13:54
  Speaker 1: order to encourage business to come in because they get
• 1:13:58
  Speaker 1: a tax break if they're willing to come in. And
• 1:14:01
  Speaker 1: I think that the next thing, the most realistic legislation
• 1:14:05
  Speaker 1: you can get passed, either on a state or federal level,
• 1:14:08
  Speaker 1: are tax incentives to help local media get up off
• 1:14:12
  Speaker 1: the ground. So I could I sort of see that
• 1:14:17
  Speaker 1: as the direction. I don't think it's where advocates of
• 1:14:20
  Speaker 1: public media want to go right now, but I think
• 1:14:22
  Speaker 1: that's where it's going to end up going. All right,
• 1:14:26
  Speaker 1: next one is anonymous, and I think I'm going to
• 1:14:28
  Speaker 1: make this the last, the last question. This will be
• 1:14:31
  Speaker 1: the fifth. Ye We'll go this plus one more. I
• 1:14:34
  Speaker 1: like the Puerto Rico question. That's next. All right, this
• 1:14:37
  Speaker 1: comes from anonymous Hey Congratchen, you'r kane from an Ole
• 1:14:39
  Speaker 1: miss lum who made the trip to Glendale painful as
• 1:14:41
  Speaker 1: it is, God bless you. I'll admit the better team. One.
• 1:14:44
  Speaker 1: My question is about Mississippi's US Senate race. Is there
• 1:14:46
  Speaker 1: any realistic path for a Democrat? Given the states racial
• 1:14:49
  Speaker 1: polarization and history of strong Republican performances even against modern Democrats,
• 1:14:53
  Speaker 1: I find the optimism hard to buy. Would love to
• 1:14:56
  Speaker 1: hear your thoughts. Well, Look, the whole argument of about
• 1:15:00
  Speaker 1: Mississippi being competitive really is a voter registration analysis. The
• 1:15:08
  Speaker 1: number of This is a state that the majority of
• 1:15:12
  Speaker 1: registered voters could easily be African American. But that isn't
• 1:15:15
  Speaker 1: the case. I think that there is a lot of
• 1:15:19
  Speaker 1: unregistered Mississippi voters out there, and that a more coordinated
• 1:15:25
  Speaker 1: effort that took place four years. You can't just parachute
• 1:15:30
  Speaker 1: in and out. So this is why. But the reason
• 1:15:33
  Speaker 1: there's always been this what about Mississippi? Among Democrats, there's
• 1:15:38
  Speaker 1: always been this what about Mississippi? Not what you don't
• 1:15:41
  Speaker 1: you know, you're not making the realistic argument about Alabama
• 1:15:44
  Speaker 1: even but to a lesser extent, South Carolina is in
• 1:15:47
  Speaker 1: the same vote. There is a lot of unregistered or
• 1:15:52
  Speaker 1: unactivated might be a better term for it, African American
• 1:15:56
  Speaker 1: voters and rural parts of Mississippi and South Carolina who
• 1:16:00
  Speaker 1: the Party does a poor job of communicating with. Right,
• 1:16:02
  Speaker 1: the Democratic Party's rural voter problem isn't just a white
• 1:16:06
  Speaker 1: rural voter. It's a Latino rural voter problem in Texas,
• 1:16:09
  Speaker 1: and it's a black rural voter problem in North Carolina,
• 1:16:12
  Speaker 1: South Carolina, Mississippi, and Alabama. And so there is that's
• 1:16:18
  Speaker 1: the argument you're right in that we've seen. We've seen
• 1:16:27
  Speaker 1: sort of both theories tested. Right, the moderate white Democrat,
• 1:16:33
  Speaker 1: Presley Right runs for governor. You know, it's competitive, and
• 1:16:36
  Speaker 1: you know, because there's this idea if you can just
• 1:16:39
  Speaker 1: break get into the mid twenties of the white vote,
• 1:16:43
  Speaker 1: you know, if you can break the teens and get
• 1:16:45
  Speaker 1: into the mid twenties of the white vote, have a
• 1:16:48
  Speaker 1: high African American turnout and win those by huge numbers
• 1:16:51
  Speaker 1: seventy you know, sixty seventy percent there that that you
• 1:16:55
  Speaker 1: can make the math work, or do you get an
• 1:17:00
  Speaker 1: African American nominee like Mike Guespie, who we've seen that
• 1:17:04
  Speaker 1: experiment in Mississippi. You know, can he so maximize turnout
• 1:17:09
  Speaker 1: among African Americans that it can overcome having a white
• 1:17:12
  Speaker 1: vote share that's in the teen seventeen, eighteen nineteen percent.
• 1:17:18
  Speaker 1: You know there, there's yet to be quite the goldilocks.
• 1:17:24
  Speaker 1: You know, the last time Democrats were able to win
• 1:17:26
  Speaker 1: some statewide races for governor there in the state, or
• 1:17:29
  Speaker 1: even go way back and Senate, it's back when Democrats
• 1:17:33
  Speaker 1: did better with the white vote. So, you know, but
• 1:17:37
  Speaker 1: there are two you know, in this case in Mississippi,
• 1:17:40
  Speaker 1: there are two two you know, sort of two metrics
• 1:17:47
  Speaker 1: to try to try to manipulate here if you're a
• 1:17:50
  Speaker 1: campaign operative. One is to supercharge voter registration in rural
• 1:17:54
  Speaker 1: African American communities and give them a reason to turn out.
• 1:17:58
  Speaker 1: And the other is to do that plus find a
• 1:18:05
  Speaker 1: moderate white Democrat that doesn't that can appeal to Chamber
• 1:18:12
  Speaker 1: of commerce type Republicans, right basically you know, the Roger
• 1:18:18
  Speaker 1: Wicker wing of the party, you know, somewhat. So look,
• 1:18:26
  Speaker 1: I'm not a believer that you can do. You know,
• 1:18:28
  Speaker 1: Georgia didn't, wasn't one cycle. Right Democrats started working on
• 1:18:33
  Speaker 1: Georgia when Barack Obama did shockingly well in eight and
• 1:18:39
  Speaker 1: in twelve he came up short without a lot of
• 1:18:42
  Speaker 1: camp but they did. They started the voter registration. Then
• 1:18:45
  Speaker 1: Stacy Abrams and her organization got more involved. So it's
• 1:18:48
  Speaker 1: it's a I would argue, and this is why the
• 1:18:51
  Speaker 1: leadership of the DNC has just been such a catastrophe.
• 1:18:54
  Speaker 1: For the last two decades. Generally, which is the DNC
• 1:18:58
  Speaker 1: has been focused on just how do you succeed in
• 1:19:01
  Speaker 1: the seven swing states, eight swing states, six swing states,
• 1:19:04
  Speaker 1: whatever it is, and everything else is less of a priority.
• 1:19:09
  Speaker 1: There has never been any medium or long term thinking
• 1:19:12
  Speaker 1: inside the Democratic side of the of the I'm not
• 1:19:16
  Speaker 1: saying there aren't individuals who have been that way, but
• 1:19:18
  Speaker 1: there is Republicans who think more long term and think
• 1:19:22
  Speaker 1: about sort of over time, how do they make progress
• 1:19:25
  Speaker 1: where over time they can put a state in play.
• 1:19:29
  Speaker 1: Minnesota has been a big project for them for quite
• 1:19:32
  Speaker 1: some time, and I think they're you know, there's a
• 1:19:35
  Speaker 1: lot of crazy happening right now in Minnesota, and it's
• 1:19:38
  Speaker 1: going to be interesting to see whether this is at
• 1:19:40
  Speaker 1: all helped the Republican party's ability to win statewide in
• 1:19:44
  Speaker 1: that state or not. But that's the thesis behind Mississippi,
• 1:19:49
  Speaker 1: that it is a voter registration that if you improved
• 1:19:55
  Speaker 1: organizing in voter registration, then then suddenly and then once
• 1:19:58
  Speaker 1: you're competitive and it's evenly competitive, well then it may
• 1:20:02
  Speaker 1: open the door to a handful more of potential persuadable voters.
• 1:20:07
  Speaker 1: Last question comes from Chewy from perto Rico. He sayscheers
• 1:20:09
  Speaker 1: chuck im Chewy from San Juan. One of the most
• 1:20:11
  Speaker 1: unsettling insights from Nuremberg twenty twenty five is doctor Douglas
• 1:20:15
  Speaker 1: Kelly's focus on how systems enable destructive behavior. I watched Nurmberg.
• 1:20:20
  Speaker 1: It was that's a that's an incredible insight. It was
• 1:20:23
  Speaker 1: about how the system did it and how people fall
• 1:20:26
  Speaker 1: into the system, not who the individuals are, but how
• 1:20:28
  Speaker 1: institutions rationalize and normalize misconduct. I think I know where
• 1:20:32
  Speaker 1: you're going. His work is a warning that democracies don't
• 1:20:34
  Speaker 1: collapse from a single active evil, but from the gradual
• 1:20:37
  Speaker 1: erosion of standards and accountability. So my question is, are
• 1:20:39
  Speaker 1: we still capable of recognizing normalization itself as a warning
• 1:20:43
  Speaker 1: sign in leadership or become so conditioned to risk that
• 1:20:46
  Speaker 1: we only recognize failure once it's irreversible. Man, That is
• 1:20:51
  Speaker 1: that is that is a deep question. I don't No,
• 1:20:55
  Speaker 1: there's no right answer yet. Well, there is a right answer,
• 1:20:57
  Speaker 1: I think. I think I'm going to lean on the
• 1:20:59
  Speaker 1: side of hope that we can recognize it. And let
• 1:21:03
  Speaker 1: me end with where I began, which was the polling
• 1:21:06
  Speaker 1: that we got, the first round of polling that we
• 1:21:08
  Speaker 1: got in response to the Minneapolis shooting, where a strong
• 1:21:11
  Speaker 1: majority of voters said it was not justified. I think
• 1:21:16
  Speaker 1: if these voters understood how the recruiting process for ice
• 1:21:21
  Speaker 1: officers was done, coupled with the lack of training that's
• 1:21:27
  Speaker 1: been given to them, coupled with the propaganda that is
• 1:21:32
  Speaker 1: delivered internally to these officers about the neighborhoods they're going
• 1:21:39
  Speaker 1: tossing in the intentional targeting of certain communities for political reasons,
• 1:21:44
  Speaker 1: not necessarily for safety and security reasons, and you create
• 1:21:49
  Speaker 1: the situation that you created in Minneapolis that costs Renee
• 1:21:53
  Speaker 1: Good her life and so Chewey. I will just simply say,
• 1:22:02
  Speaker 1: I think your question is a comment, and it's a
• 1:22:06
  Speaker 1: very important one. It's a very important piece of commentary
• 1:22:10
  Speaker 1: because it's a point I was trying to make earlier
• 1:22:13
  Speaker 1: on one of my YouTube updates, which was ICE isn't
• 1:22:19
  Speaker 1: the problem. It's the people and how they're being trained
• 1:22:22
  Speaker 1: that's the problem. And I am not going to go
• 1:22:25
  Speaker 1: down the abolished ICE road personally, because in theory, we
• 1:22:32
  Speaker 1: need immigration control, we need border patrol, we need customs.
• 1:22:36
  Speaker 1: You know, all of that is a fact. What we
• 1:22:39
  Speaker 1: need is better leadership and better training. And so the
• 1:22:45
  Speaker 1: question then, to sort of reword your last question, are
• 1:22:49
  Speaker 1: we capable of seeing that? I don't know, sadly that
• 1:22:56
  Speaker 1: what I just laid out about sort of how we
• 1:22:58
  Speaker 1: got there not seen a in a larger media context. Right,
• 1:23:04
  Speaker 1: I've done it. I've worked really hard to make sure
• 1:23:06
  Speaker 1: people understood this didn't happen in a vacuum. Right. The
• 1:23:10
  Speaker 1: way they recruited ICE officers guaranteed that they were going
• 1:23:14
  Speaker 1: to recruit more hotheads than de escalators, and that was
• 1:23:21
  Speaker 1: a recipe for trouble. Some people think that's a bug
• 1:23:25
  Speaker 1: in the system. I fear others in and around that
• 1:23:29
  Speaker 1: West wing think it's a feature. And that's you know
• 1:23:36
  Speaker 1: that that to me is when you just brought up
• 1:23:38
  Speaker 1: Nurmberg and I haven't. I haven't brought this up. I've
• 1:23:41
  Speaker 1: I've binged it probably like many of you already have.
• 1:23:44
  Speaker 1: On on Netflix. I sort of consume so much. I'm
• 1:23:48
  Speaker 1: kind of like a generic middle aged white guy. I
• 1:23:51
  Speaker 1: will consume me some Nazi History channel stuff all the time, right,
• 1:23:55
  Speaker 1: I fall into that. I fall into that stereotype, and
• 1:24:00
  Speaker 1: so I consume Nurremberg. By the way, if you're going
• 1:24:03
  Speaker 1: down that Netflix road, the Circle of Evil eight part
• 1:24:08
  Speaker 1: doc about the people around Hitler who please watch it.
• 1:24:11
  Speaker 1: It's amazing and more importantly, you'll find yourself, hey, that
• 1:24:18
  Speaker 1: person is this anyway? You know what you'll end up doing.
• 1:24:21
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to further go down further. I'll just
• 1:24:24
  Speaker 1: lean hard into into that. But there's there's definitely more
• 1:24:28
  Speaker 1: than one character in hitler Circle of Evil that looks
• 1:24:32
  Speaker 1: quite familiar in today's politics. So on that havy note,
• 1:24:37
  Speaker 1: why don't we make that the end of this episode?
• 1:24:40
  Speaker 1: Terrific questions? Thank you? Remember ask Chuck at Thechuck podcast
• 1:24:43
  Speaker 1: dot com. That's how you get a question asked, Leave
• 1:24:46
  Speaker 1: a comment somewhere if you'd like to. We do monitor
• 1:24:49
  Speaker 1: that as best we can. We love our YouTubers, We
• 1:24:52
  Speaker 1: love the commentary We get there, even the ones that
• 1:24:55
  Speaker 1: you know, we don't love the trolls, but there's the
• 1:24:57
  Speaker 1: trolls are fewered far between. You know you are so
• 1:25:01
  Speaker 1: thank you for that. And I will see you in
• 1:25:03
  Speaker 1: twenty four hours mmmm