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Santa Clarita Market Split: 60 Price Cuts vs 5 Increases | Real Estate Update · Connor with Honor: AI, Real Estate and Real Life

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_00: 60 Homes cut their price in Santa Clarita Valley this week.
• 0:03
  SPEAKER_00: Five raised it.
• 0:04
  SPEAKER_00: That's 12 to 1 split.
• 0:05
  SPEAKER_00: And it's the real headline this morning, not the one you're going to see on a national news ticker.
• 0:10
  SPEAKER_00: Meanwhile, out in Castag, 30, 430, Daisy Court, four bedrooms, 1,705 square feet, hit the market and sold in seven days for$675,000.
• 0:20
  SPEAKER_00: Same valley, same week.
• 0:21
  SPEAKER_00: Two completely different stories.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: And today I'm going to show you exactly where the line between them sits.
• 0:27
  SPEAKER_00: Good day, everybody.
• 0:28
  SPEAKER_00: Santa Clarita Open Houses here, August 24th, 2026.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_00: And this is your real estate update.
• 0:34
  SPEAKER_00: Here's what's ahead.
• 0:35
  SPEAKER_00: So the full board, every active escrow, every closed, closed sale across the nine Santa Cruz Valley cities as of seven this morning.
• 0:43
  SPEAKER_00: Price cut story, 60 sellers who moved this week, and what it tells you about where you're competing.
• 0:48
  SPEAKER_00: And later I'm going to take you inside one specific neighborhood where a house can close in 13 days or sit for 134.
• 0:54
  SPEAKER_00: Same city, same zip code, and I'll show you exactly what houses are stuck and why.
• 0:58
  SPEAKER_00: Hold on to one number for me.
• 1:00
  SPEAKER_00: 19.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_00: I'll come back to it.
• 1:02
  SPEAKER_00: Let's start with the board.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_00: 810 homes actively for sale across this valley this morning.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_00: 127 of those homes are in backup position, meaning they already have an accepted offer, but the seller is still taking backups just in case the deal falls through.
• 1:16
  SPEAKER_00: And it's kind of like a wedding, keeping a plus one on standby even after the invitations have been sent out.
• 1:22
  SPEAKER_00: 174 in escrow, 12 are coming soon.
• 1:25
  SPEAKER_00: In the last seven days, 38 homes closed.
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_00: In the last 30 days, 192 closed total.
• 1:31
  SPEAKER_00: City by city active inventory.
• 1:33
  SPEAKER_00: Valencia 250, that's the biggest board in the valley.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_00: Canyon Country 182.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: Saugus 104, Newhall 97.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_00: Castayc 54, Acton 39.
• 1:42
  SPEAKER_00: Stevenson Ranch 33.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_00: Santa Clara Proper 27.
• 1:46
  SPEAKER_00: Aqua Dulce 24.
• 1:47
  SPEAKER_00: So 30-day median sales price by city.
• 1:49
  SPEAKER_00: Valencia is 852,500.
• 1:52
  SPEAKER_00: Saugus 808,500.
• 1:55
  SPEAKER_00: Canyon Country 715.
• 1:57
  SPEAKER_00: Castac 732,450.
• 1:59
  SPEAKER_00: Newhall 550 grand.
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_00: Acton 867,000.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_00: And of course, Stevenson Ranch, a full 1 million even.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_00: Santa Clarita proper, worth explaining.
• 2:08
  SPEAKER_00: So what does that mean when an agent outside of our local multiple listing service decides, hey, I'm your best choice, list with me.
• 2:16
  SPEAKER_00: And then they take the listing and they dump it into their own multiple listing service whenever they're inputting the listing in there so all the world can see it.
• 2:24
  SPEAKER_00: It doesn't get ascribed to a particular city.
• 2:27
  SPEAKER_00: It doesn't get ascribed to the correct city.
• 2:29
  SPEAKER_00: So it's going to show Santa Clarita.
• 2:31
  SPEAKER_00: That's why when you go into the local MLS, you don't see Santa Clarita as a choice because every single listing fits within its own respective city.
• 2:40
  SPEAKER_00: So that's a problem.
• 2:41
  SPEAKER_00: But anyway, that's why that's popping up.
• 2:43
  SPEAKER_00: So Santa Clarita proper is ringing in at 1,450,000.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_00: Though that's only three sales, treat that as a small sample, but that's the explanation.
• 2:53
  SPEAKER_00: It's not a trend.
• 2:54
  SPEAKER_00: Compared to last week, active listings dropped by 13, escrow ticked up by two, and closings dropped by 13.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: One quiet week doesn't make a trend, but it's worth watching if it repeats next week and the week after.
• 3:05
  SPEAKER_00: But I'll keep you posted every single day by property type valley-wide over the last 30 days.
• 3:10
  SPEAKER_00: Single family homes closed at a median 884,500.
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: Condos at 465,000.
• 3:16
  SPEAKER_00: Town homes at 595,000.
• 3:19
  SPEAKER_00: Condos are also sitting the longest of the three, median 50 days to close versus 36 for single family and 25 for townhomes.
• 3:26
  SPEAKER_00: That gap is going to matter in just a moment because it does show up again in a much bigger way once we get to Canyon Country.
• 3:33
  SPEAKER_00: Zero listings hit the board as of this morning's poll.
• 3:36
  SPEAKER_00: That's just the early hour talking, not really a signal.
• 3:38
  SPEAKER_00: Check back with us later today at Santa ClaritaOpenhouses.com for the real count.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_00: Open houses this weekend, 22 total, 12 Saturday, 10 Sunday, 14 of them in Valencia alone.
• 3:50
  SPEAKER_00: Nothing scheduled for today, but the week's going to propagate with a bunch.
• 3:54
  SPEAKER_00: We'll probably be close to 300 by the weekend.
• 3:57
  SPEAKER_00: Do the math on all of that.
• 3:58
  SPEAKER_00: Active inventory divided by what's actually closing.
• 4:00
  SPEAKER_00: You're going to get 4.2 months of supply valley wide.
• 4:03
  SPEAKER_00: Anything under four months favors sellers.
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_00: Four to six is roughly balanced.
• 4:08
  SPEAKER_00: Over six starts favoring buyers.
• 4:10
  SPEAKER_00: 4.2 puts us just barely on the seller side of even, which is exactly why the story today isn't hot market or cold market.
• 4:18
  SPEAKER_00: It's a market that's splitting down the middle.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: And the price cut data proves it.
• 4:23
  SPEAKER_00: So here's that split in one stat this week.
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_00: 60 sellers across our valley cut their asking price.
• 4:29
  SPEAKER_00: Five raised it.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_00: Kenyon Country alone accounted for 15 of those cuts.
• 4:33
  SPEAKER_00: 545 5,036 total sliced off asking prices in seven days.
• 4:39
  SPEAKER_00: Valencia cut 19 times.
• 4:41
  SPEAKER_00: That's 431,244 total.
• 4:44
  SPEAKER_00: And now in Aqua Dulce, 667,500.
• 4:49
  SPEAKER_00: Now, what's happening here?
• 4:51
  SPEAKER_00: It's kind of like pricing a garage sale item at full retail and being shocked nobody bites, then marking it down by half and watching it walk out the door in an hour.
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_00: So who's still winning at the original number?
• 5:04
  SPEAKER_00: Valley wide, of everything that closed in the last 30 days, 30.2% sold at over asking.
• 5:10
  SPEAKER_00: 20.3% sold at asking price, and 49.5% sold under, giving back a median of$19,000.
• 5:20
  SPEAKER_00: The homes that sold over asking took a median 23 days to do it.
• 5:24
  SPEAKER_00: The whole homes that sold under asking took a median 41 days in the same 18-day gap as we've been tracking, and it's not closing.
• 5:32
  SPEAKER_00: One more piece before we go local financing across the valley this year.
• 5:36
  SPEAKER_00: VA buyers, veteran buyers, closed in a median 27 days.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_00: Cash to new loan buyers also 27 days.
• 5:44
  SPEAKER_00: Conventional closed in around 29.
• 5:47
  SPEAKER_00: Cash 33.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_00: FHA buyers 37.
• 5:50
  SPEAKER_00: VA buyers are 5.4% of the market here, and they're still the fastest close in the valley.
• 5:56
  SPEAKER_00: So if you're a home seller wondering whether a VA buyer slows down your escrow process, live data says the opposite.
• 6:03
  SPEAKER_00: Now let's go where the real story is.
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_00: Kenya Country, 182 homes active there right now.
• 6:08
  SPEAKER_00: I pulled a working sample of 60 of them and sorted through every one by how long it's been sitting.
• 6:14
  SPEAKER_00: 33 of those 60 have been on the market 30 days or less.
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_00: Median asking price$759,000.
• 6:20
  SPEAKER_00: 19 of the 60, that's the number I asked you to hold on to.
• 6:23
  SPEAKER_00: I've been sitting, have been sitting past 90 or 60 days.
• 6:27
  SPEAKER_00: That's 19 out of 60, almost one in three.
• 6:30
  SPEAKER_00: So here's the plain English on what that number actually measures.
• 6:34
  SPEAKER_00: Days on market or DOM for short, that's exactly what it sounds like.
• 6:37
  SPEAKER_00: The number of days a home has been actively listed without going into contract.
• 6:42
  SPEAKER_00: A low days on market or DOM means buyers are moving fast.
• 6:46
  SPEAKER_00: A climbing one means a specific home usually means one of two things.
• 6:50
  SPEAKER_00: The price is wrong for what's being offered, or the pool of buyers for that exact home has genuinely thinned out.
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_00: Canyon Country right now is showing us both answers in two different halves of the same city.
• 7:02
  SPEAKER_00: So the first question worth asking about any slow market, did the buyers actually leave?
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_00: In Canyon Country, over the last 90 days, 34.4% of the closings went out over asking, the second highest share in the entire valley behind Castac.
• 7:16
  SPEAKER_00: Homes that closed over asking there took a median of 13 days.
• 7:20
  SPEAKER_00: Now that's not a city buyers have abandoned.
• 7:23
  SPEAKER_00: That's a city where half of the inventory is on fire and half of it is sitting untouched.
• 7:28
  SPEAKER_00: And the averaging those two numbers together is what makes the whole city look slow when it actually isn't.
• 7:34
  SPEAKER_00: And the second question: what changed in the competitive set?
• 7:37
  SPEAKER_00: So let's look at what's actually sitting past 60 days in Canyon Country.
• 7:41
  SPEAKER_00: In the Canyon Park neighborhood, a condo has been asking$494,900 for$169 days.
• 7:48
  SPEAKER_00: In American Beauty Soledad, another condo,$350,000.
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_00: Sitting 158 days in Pine Tree, single family home asking$949,000,$159 days on market.
• 8:00
  SPEAKER_00: In Starlings, single family home at$1,375,$134 days on market.
• 8:06
  SPEAKER_00: In Cedar Creek at Fair Oaks,$899,500,$133 days.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_00: There's a pattern there.
• 8:12
  SPEAKER_00: The older condos and upper tier custom homes, both ends of the price ladder, stuck on the same shelf.
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_00: The starter to mid single family homes, the 700 to 800 band, are the ones closing in 13 days over asking.
• 8:24
  SPEAKER_00: The condos and the million plus homes are the ones sitting past four months.
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_00: It's the exact same split we found in Castac last week, just wearing a different price tag.
• 8:34
  SPEAKER_00: The average isn't slow, it's an average of a fast lane in a parking lot.
• 8:39
  SPEAKER_00: Now you know which lane your Cannon Country home is parked in before you even list it.
• 8:43
  SPEAKER_00: Let's check that against the national story because the headlines this week don't match our board, and that gap does matter.
• 8:49
  SPEAKER_00: Freddie Max rate survey, released last Thursday, put the 30-year fixed at 6.65% of the 15-year and the 15-year at 5.95%, both down for a second straight week.
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_00: The new fresh read comes this Thursday.
• 9:04
  SPEAKER_00: Nationally, the Fed held its benchmark rate at 3.5 to 3.75% at its July meeting, and three of the 12 voting members actually wanted to raise it, not cut.
• 9:16
  SPEAKER_00: Jackson Hall, the annual gathering where the Fed signals its next move, runs Wednesday through Friday this week, and it's the one first one under the new Fed chair, Kevin Warsh.
• 9:27
  SPEAKER_00: Phonetically, that's Warsh, just like that.
• 9:30
  SPEAKER_00: Since he took the seat back in May, whatever he says Thursday will move mortgage pricing by Friday morning.
• 9:36
  SPEAKER_00: And in some cases, the market kind of preempts the strike.
• 9:40
  SPEAKER_00: So if you're floating a rate lock this week, that's the day to watch.
• 9:44
  SPEAKER_00: Existing home sales nationally came in at 4.06 million for July, down 1.7% from June.
• 9:51
  SPEAKER_00: National median prices,$431,400.
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_00: That's 4.6 months of supply.
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_00: Translate that to us.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_00: The national supply number and the 4.2 are almost identical, which means Santa Clarita isn't an outlier right now.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_00: We're tracking the country almost exactly.
• 10:06
  SPEAKER_00: The differences are price point$431,400 national versus$700,800 here.
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_00: So national headlines about affordability improving mean something very different once you're actually shopping in this valley.
• 10:20
  SPEAKER_00: California's own numbers from the State Association, most recent monthly report, statewide median,$887,680.
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_00: Los Angeles County,$849,450,000.
• 10:32
  SPEAKER_00: Greater Southern California,$899,000, 3.4 months of supply statewide.
• 10:37
  SPEAKER_00: So we're running almost a full month heavier on supply than the state as a whole, which tracks with what we've been seeing in the price cut data.
• 10:45
  SPEAKER_00: More supply means more sellers competing for the same buyer, which is exactly why 60 of them cut their price this week.
• 10:53
  SPEAKER_00: One world story because it's a six-year running and it still isn't over.
• 10:57
  SPEAKER_00: China's property crisis keeps grinding on.
• 11:00
  SPEAKER_00: The man who built Evergrande, the company whose collapse started this whole mess, was sentenced to life in prison last week.
• 11:06
  SPEAKER_00: Real estate values there keep falling, developers keep defaulting, and some analysts think home prices still need to drop another 40% before the market finds a floor.
• 11:16
  SPEAKER_00: It's kind of like watching a slow-motion car crash you know is coming and still flinching every time it hits again.
• 11:23
  SPEAKER_00: The tie back for us is the starkest possible reminder that a market correction over there looks nothing like a market correction here.
• 11:32
  SPEAKER_00: We have a 12 to 1 price cut ratio and a 4.2 month supply.
• 11:36
  SPEAKER_00: They have a multi-year, multi-decade unwind.
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_00: Context matters.
• 11:41
  SPEAKER_00: And here's why that distraction matters beyond trivia.
• 11:44
  SPEAKER_00: When a market like China's gets that far underwater, the fix takes government intervention, forced consolidation, sometimes a full decade of pain because there's no natural floor left holding prices up.
• 11:57
  SPEAKER_00: Our valley has never come close to that kind of imbalance.
• 12:00
  SPEAKER_00: Even at 4.2 months of supply, we're still inside a range.
• 12:03
  SPEAKER_00: Buyers and sellers can actually negotiate through.
• 12:06
  SPEAKER_00: It's kind of like the difference between your car making a weird noise and your car being on fire.
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_00: One means you take it to the shop this week, the other one means you're not driving it anywhere.
• 12:15
  SPEAKER_00: Mark your calendar for the week ahead.
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_00: Jackson Hole runs Wednesday through Friday.
• 12:19
  SPEAKER_00: Chairman Warsh speaks Thursday.
• 12:22
  SPEAKER_00: Freddy Max next rate.
• 12:24
  SPEAKER_00: Survey drops Thursday morning and on the local board.
• 12:27
  SPEAKER_00: Watch weather this week's active count keeps drifting down the way it did the last seven days.
• 12:32
  SPEAKER_00: One more week of that, and it starts to look like a real pattern instead of noise.
• 12:37
  SPEAKER_00: Three things to actually remember from today.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_00: Number one, 4.2 months of supply, keeping this a barely a seller's market valley wide.
• 12:44
  SPEAKER_00: Two, 60 price cuts against five increases this week.
• 12:47
  SPEAKER_00: That's a 12 to 1 split that tells you more about seller psychology than any single median ever will.
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_00: Three in Canyon Country specifically is not what the market, it's not that the market slowed, and that the condos and the million plus custom homes are sitting while the 700 to 800 band moves in 13 days over asking.
• 13:06
  SPEAKER_00: And that same fast lane versus parking lot pattern is very likely sitting inside your own neighborhood right now, whichever city you're in.
• 13:14
  SPEAKER_00: Tomorrow we're going to pull that board again and see whether that 13 home drop in active inventory turned into a real trend or corrected itself back up.
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_00: Here's your last dab for today.
• 13:24
  SPEAKER_00: A slow market doesn't mean nobody's buying.
• 13:26
  SPEAKER_00: It means somebody's overpricing.
• 13:28
  SPEAKER_00: Write that one down.
• 13:29
  SPEAKER_00: If you want today's numbers for your own street, your own neighborhood, or your own home's estimated value, text the word house to 661 400 1720.
• 13:38
  SPEAKER_00: That's my cell.
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_00: That's me.
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_00: That's it.
• 13:40
  SPEAKER_00: That's the only thing I'm asking.
• 13:41
  SPEAKER_00: Santa Clara to open houses.
• 13:43
  SPEAKER_00: We'll see you tomorrow morning.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_00: Be well.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_00: Have a great day.