Latest / Pod Save America / “Green Eggs and Covid Relief Plan."

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“Green Eggs and Covid Relief Plan." · Pod Save America

• 0:01
  Speaker 1: Thank you. Welcome to Pod Save America. I'm Jon Favreau.
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: I'm Dan Pfeiffer.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: On today's pod, we talk about why the Republican response
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: to vaccine funding and $ 1, 400 checks is Dr. Seuss and Mr.
• 0:29
  Speaker 1: Potato Head, why Donald Trump is fighting with the Republican
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: National Committee over the use of his name, and why
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: some Democratic strategists are worried that the party's 2020 performance
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: among some Latino and Black voters may spell trouble for
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: the 2022 midterms. Two quick notes before we get started.
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: Crooked's new sports podcast, Take Line, premieres on Tuesday, March 16th.
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: Each week, Emmy award-winning host Jason Concepcion and two-time WNBA
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: champion and Atlanta Dream co-owner Renee Montgomery will host a fast, funny, smart,
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: thoughtful conversation about sports, culture, politics, and all the ways
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: they intersect on and off the court. There's so much
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: fun to listen to. It's going to be your new
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: favorite show. Go subscribe right now.
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: Do you feel like a sense of inadequacy whenever you
• 1:15
  Speaker 2: read Renee's bio in these pitches?
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, like, it's like... you know, two-time WNBA champion and, oh,
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: now I also co-own a basketball team. Yeah.
• 1:27
  Speaker 2: It's like, oh, chief speechwriter, former communications director. That was
• 1:30
  Speaker 2: cool for a minute.
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: Also, I have to say, Jason's pretty lucky that he
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: won that Emmy because otherwise, you know, tough to keep up.
• 1:37
  Speaker 2: That's right.
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: Tough to keep up. All right. While you're at it,
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: be sure to subscribe and listen to What A Day.
• 1:43
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• 1:47
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• 1:50
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• 1:53
  Speaker 1: your morning news show. Go check it out and subscribe
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: if you haven't already. All right, let's get to the news.
• 2:00
  Speaker 1: Now that President Biden is set to sign and then
• 2:02
  Speaker 1: sell the incredibly popular American Rescue Plan, you may be
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: wondering what kind of arguments congressional Republicans are making to
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: explain their unanimous opposition to the legislation. Well, We've had
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: some performative deficit hypocrisy. We've heard it's a payoff to progressives,
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: even though red states are getting just as much money
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: and half of all Republican voters support the bill. But
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: what Republicans and right-wing media have spent the most time
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: arguing over the last few weeks is this.
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: Let's talk about Dr. Seuss.
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: Dr. Seuss.
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: Dr.
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: Seuss.
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: Dr. Seuss.
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: Dr. Seuss.
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: Dr.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: Seuss. Dr.
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: Seuss.
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: Dr. Seuss.
• 2:41
  Speaker 2: Dr.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: Seuss.
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: Dr.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: Seuss. Dr. Seuss. Dr.
• 2:43
  Speaker 2: Seuss.
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: Dr. Seuss. Dr. Seuss.
• 2:44
  Speaker 2: Dr.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: Seuss. Dr. Seuss. Dr. Seuss. Dr. Seuss. So that's a
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: super cut from our friends at Media Matters about how
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: Fox News has been handling this terrible controversy. It's also
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: been on the mind of several Republican politicians. Here's a
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: clip from CPAC. Look out, Mr.
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: Potato Head.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: You're next.
• 3:05
  Speaker 2: I'm sorry, I think now he's going by Potato X.
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: There is nothing the radical left won't cancel. Hasbro now
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: wants a gender neutral Mr. Potato Head.
• 3:20
  Speaker 2: These are the issues of our times, folks.
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: And the minority leader of the House, Kevin McCarthy, who
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: should be leading the opposition, to the American rescue plan
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: since this whole caucus voted against it. You'd think this
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: would be on his mind. Here's what he had to say.
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: I will eat them.
• 3:37
  Speaker 2: With a mouse. And I will eat them here and
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: there saying, I'll eat them anywhere. I do so like
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: green eggs and ham. Thank you, thank you, Sam I am.
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: Enjoy your day.
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: Enjoy your day. It's so funny. So, I originally wanted
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: to avoid this nonsense, but it is the Republican message.
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: Media Matters found that Fox News spent over four hours
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: in one week on Mr. Potato Head, Dr. Seuss, and
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: Biden's Neanderthal comments. They spent just a few minutes on
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: a $ 1. 9 trillion piece of legislation. So, you know, if
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: they want to go nuts, let's go nuts. Dan, why
• 4:24
  Speaker 1: are all the woke libs ripping toys and books from
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: the hands of America's children?
• 4:30
  Speaker 2: I think you're buying the premise of the argument with
• 4:32
  Speaker 2: that question.
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: Keeping my Dr. Seuss books, Dan.
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: Well, do you want to talk about the specifics of
• 4:41
  Speaker 2: these faux controversies or the broader themes of them?
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: I think we should start with very quickly going over
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: the specifics of the controversies. I do not want to
• 4:50
  Speaker 1: dwell on them, but I do think like I was
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: one person who was not paying much attention to either
• 4:55
  Speaker 1: of these controversies and just heard Republicans screaming about Mr.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: Potato Head and Dr. Seuss getting canceled. And then as
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: I dug in, unfortunately, into the details of the controversy,
• 5:05
  Speaker 1: realized that most of what they're saying isn't even true.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: So we should probably start there.
• 5:11
  Speaker 2: All right. All right. Well, let's start with the Potato
• 5:14
  Speaker 2: Head issue. And so Hasbro announced.
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: We start Pod Save America in 2017 to fight Trumpism.
• 5:24
  Speaker 1: Fast forward to March of 2021. Let's start with the
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: potato head issue.
• 5:29
  Speaker 2: Well, as I get here, this is directly tied to Trumpism.
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: So stay tuned, people.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: I know, I know, it is.
• 5:36
  Speaker 2: The potato head issue is particularly dumb because Hasbro for
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: years has sold a Mr. Potato Head and a Mrs.
• 5:45
  Speaker 2: Potato Head. The potatoes available in those sets were identical.
• 5:50
  Speaker 2: They look like potatoes and they came with a different
• 5:52
  Speaker 2: set of accessories. Now they are moving towards a simple
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: potato head to which you could dress with either set
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: of accessories. And just they are lopping off the mister
• 6:03
  Speaker 2: part in this just one potato head. Hard to explain
• 6:06
  Speaker 2: why this is happening. Hard to explain why people like
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: Ted Cruz care. But basically an elimination of redundancy.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: But also, I mean, just to be clear, there's still
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: such a thing as a Mr. Potato Head and a Mrs.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: Potato Head. Those still exist. You can get a Mr.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: Potato Head. You can get a Mrs. Potato Head. The
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: larger brand is just going to be called Potato Head.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: That's it. That's the only change. Yes.
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: And this is important to tie this to a larger
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: Republican strategic objective, which is a very aggressive, bigoted campaign
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: against the trans community. That is what is at the
• 6:41
  Speaker 2: core of the Potato Head issue.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: The Dr.
• 6:44
  Speaker 2: Seuss issue is even dumber. The short version is the
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: corporation that owns the copyright and publishes the book, that
• 6:55
  Speaker 2: runs the Dr. Seuss business, that publishes the books, that
• 6:59
  Speaker 2: licenses the characters for movies and TV and toys– decided
• 7:04
  Speaker 2: to stop publishing six of his many books because of
• 7:07
  Speaker 2: very clearly racist imagery. This has been a conversation we've
• 7:09
  Speaker 2: been having for a very long time. The Republican response
• 7:14
  Speaker 2: to this was to buy all of the Dr. Seuss
• 7:17
  Speaker 2: books in protest of the people who quote-unquote banned Dr. Seuss,
• 7:21
  Speaker 2: therefore buying them from the people who made the decision
• 7:26
  Speaker 2: to stop publishing these books and giving them more money.
• 7:29
  Speaker 2: This is very similar to when they broke other Keurigs.
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: It's a very similar sort of self-owned. But this is
• 7:35
  Speaker 2: not– the Biden administration did not ban these books. The
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: Hollywood elite did not ban these books. What we believe
• 7:42
  Speaker 2: to be the Dr. Seuss heirs decided to stop publishing
• 7:45
  Speaker 2: six of his books that they believed, and many people agree,
• 7:49
  Speaker 2: contained blatantly racist imagery. Books go in and out of
• 7:53
  Speaker 2: publication all the time. That is not cancel culture. That
• 7:56
  Speaker 2: is book banning. You can agree with it, disagree with it.
• 7:59
  Speaker 2: There are some more complicated conversations about how you deal
• 8:01
  Speaker 2: with books that have racist imagery, complicated histories, but this
• 8:07
  Speaker 2: is not 1984.
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: No, and again, Dr. Seuss has published like dozens of books,
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: hundreds of books. We're talking about six books, six of
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: his like lesser known books, by the way. Can you
• 8:20
  Speaker 1: still get Cat in the Hat? You can. Can you
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: still get Green Eggs and Ham? Absolutely. Can you still
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: get The Grinch Who Stole Christmas? 100%. But there are
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: six books that, and look, this is not like borderline
• 8:32
  Speaker 1: cases here. These are, when you look into it, they
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: are very racist images in those books, which Dr. Seuss'
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: estate decided on their own, they're not gonna publish. That's it.
• 8:42
  Speaker 1: That's all that happened. That's all that we're dealing with.
• 8:45
  Speaker 1: Huge controversy. Huge controversy. So before we talk about sort
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: of like what effect this might have, whether this is
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: politically effective or not or all that, like I'll talk
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: about why Republicans are doing this. This is not how
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: Republicans responded to the Recovery Act. It's not how they
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: responded to the Affordable Care Act back in the Obama era.
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: In both of those cases, they made arguments that were
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: at least loosely based on policy about government doing too much,
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: government spending too much, government giving away too much to
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: people who they believed were undeserving. Why do you think
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: they aren't doing that now? Are Republicans focusing on culture
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: wars and identity politics because they know how popular the
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: American Rescue Plan is? Or do you think they'd be
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: picking these fights regardless of the plan's popularity? It's a
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: little bit of both.
• 9:40
  Speaker 2: I think there are three things that make 2021 different
• 9:44
  Speaker 2: than 2009. One, and perhaps more important than anything else,
• 9:48
  Speaker 2: is that Joe Biden is a white man from Scranton, Pennsylvania,
• 9:51
  Speaker 2: and he is not Barack Hussein Obama from Hawaii via Indonesia.
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: Right.
• 9:56
  Speaker 2: That is the, the, so that's part one.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: We should say just on part one, that is not
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: just us saying that like, um, a lot of conservatives
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: have even been saying at like CPAC and at Trump rallies,
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: they can't sell merch making fun of Joe Biden. They
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: can't get people whipped up about him. They can't get
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: people really angry about him. They're trying to sell anti-Biden merch.
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: They can't do it. They're still selling anti-Hillary stuff and
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: Obama stuff because they can't get their own base to
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: be that angry with older, moderate, white guy Joe Biden.
• 10:35
  Speaker 2: And it's not because Biden is more popular than Obama
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: was then. Obama's approval ratings at this point in his
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: presidency were 10 to 12 points higher than Biden's. Biden's
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: are still incredibly hot. They're above 50%. They're very good.
• 10:47
  Speaker 2: Politics is more polarized now. So there's a little bit
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: of apples and oranges comparison, but it's not like Obama
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: was this very divisive, unpopular president. I mean, he was
• 10:53
  Speaker 2: incredibly popular. He just, the Republican base was more fired
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: up about him for the reason we just said than
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: they are about Joe Biden. Point number two is the
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: American rescue plan is much more popular broadly and with
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: Republicans than the recovery act was. The American Rescue Plan
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: is polling north of 70% prior to passage. At the
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: exact same time, the 2009 Recovery Act was polling 52%.
• 11:17
  Speaker 2: And you have upwards of half of Trump voters supporting
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: the American Rescue Plan. So it's harder to pick a
• 11:24
  Speaker 2: fight on that when half of your voters like it.
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: And the third reason is that Republicans are divided. And
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: we talked about this in previous podcasts, but there is
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: a long history of political science research and common sense
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: showing that cultural issues unite the Republican Party and divide Democrats,
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: while economic issues unite Democrats and divide Republicans. And you
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: have a very popular economic package on the plan that
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: is incredibly divisive to Republicans. So they're going to talk
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: about the thing that unites them, which are these cultural
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: issues like, quote unquote, cancel culture.
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: I also think, you know, in the Obama years, sort
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: of the central dividing line between the parties was this
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: debate over size and role of government, right? That was
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: ostensibly what the Tea Party was about. We started talking
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: about deficits and debt the whole time. This is what
• 12:18
  Speaker 1: the entire 2012 election was about between Barack Obama and
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: Mitt Romney, makers and takers. This was the Paul Ryan thing.
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: I think Republicans have essentially lost that argument. And in
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: some cases, they've abandoned it, right? Like the Paul Ryan
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: wing of the party is does not have the same
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: power or influence it once had, not even close. And
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: Trump does not really give a shit about the size
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: and role of government. He's not that kind of conservative,
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: nor are a lot of the Trumpiest politicians. And the
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: fact that, you know, Donald Trump passed a two point
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: two trillion dollar rescue package when he was president and
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: and also passed another huge tax cut and didn't care
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: about the deficit so much like he doesn't care as
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: much about that debate. The Republicans also have more of
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: a working class base than they had before. So the
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: idea that they're going to be the party that just
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: pushes unpopular tax cuts for the rich and unpopular tax
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: cuts for big corporations and cutting regulations that could protect
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: air and water and stuff like that. They know that
• 13:22
  Speaker 1: those policies aren't as popular, even though there's a lot
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: of congressional Republicans like Mitch McConnell still pushing that shit,
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: which we'll talk about. But that doesn't really animate the
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: party anymore. And they have sort of lost that debate
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: over the size and role of government. And so therefore...
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: All they have now are these cultural issues. And not
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: just cultural issues, but really it's identity, right? Like politics
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: has become for them pure identity. And I think the
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: best example of this was in 2020, the Republican Party
• 13:51
  Speaker 1: didn't even put out a policy platform. The policy platform
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: was just whatever Donald Trump wants us to do. Your
• 13:58
  Speaker 1: identity as a Republican voter is being for Donald Trump.
• 14:01
  Speaker 1: It is not about your preference for a certain number
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: of policy issues at all anymore.
• 14:06
  Speaker 2: I think you're correct that sort of the debate about
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: size of government has shifted in the decade since Obama
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: passed the Recovery Act. And being in the middle of
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: a pandemic has also affected that because more people have
• 14:21
  Speaker 2: become in more need of help from the government, whether
• 14:24
  Speaker 2: that is financial help, that's a relief check, that's a shot.
• 14:29
  Speaker 2: But every debate about size of government and deficits ultimately
• 14:34
  Speaker 2: boils down to a debate about the redistribution of taxpayer
• 14:38
  Speaker 2: dollars and political power from white people to non-white people.
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: Ronald Reagan grew the government while it was on the
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: defense side, but while arguing about welfare queens, which was
• 14:47
  Speaker 2: a racist stereotype and a false and racist stereotype, that
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: it's just easier to make that argument when it's Barack
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: Obama at the front of it. And I just think
• 14:56
  Speaker 2: that has to be understood in this. So that's one. Two,
• 15:01
  Speaker 2: the core elements of the Republican Party since Richard Nixon
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: and the civil rights movement are shared victimhood and restorative nostalgia.
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: And that's what this is about. This is about other,
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: quote unquote, others, elites, non-white people coming to affect your
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: life and to take your power away, to say the
• 15:21
  Speaker 2: things that you care about, like these totems of a
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: different era in America, Mr. slash Mrs. Potato Head and Dr. Seuss,
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: are being taken away from you. And that is a
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: proxy for the idea that as the country becomes more diverse,
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: political power is shifting away from the people who have
• 15:39
  Speaker 2: always had it, white Christian men. And the Republicans, that's
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: what Make America Great Again is. It's restorative and salvageous
• 15:46
  Speaker 2: idea that we are going to bring you back to
• 15:48
  Speaker 2: that period. And that has always been their strength. And
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: that is where they are trying to go. Whether it'll
• 15:53
  Speaker 2: work or not is an open question we'll discuss, I think,
• 15:55
  Speaker 2: a lot over the next couple of years. But that
• 15:57
  Speaker 2: is what is at the core of cancel culture defined broadly.
• 16:02
  Speaker 1: It's also, this is sort of a subtle difference, but
• 16:05
  Speaker 1: it's not just about what's being taken away from you.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: Like they are, so like you said, they are trying
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: to fuel grievance and resentment against elites, not just elites
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: with economic power, but with cultural influence, right? So they
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: want to tell you that like these libs in the
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: media and academia and corporate America now and Hollywood are
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: canceling Dr. Seuss and Mr. Potato Head because they think
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: that your tastes and your beliefs and your traditions are
• 16:35
  Speaker 1: are racist and sexist and bigoted and so if you're
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: someone who has read dr seuss to your children or
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: has a dr seuss books or remember dr seuss from
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: your childhood they want to tell you that liberals think
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: you're racist because of that and they will cancel you
• 16:53
  Speaker 1: know see how they're canceling the books they're going to
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: come for you next if you dare say that you
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: like a dr seuss books and so they want people
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: they don't it's not just even about their own base
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: anymore they're They're now broadening it to anyone and saying
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: if you like anything or have ever liked anything that
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: the elite now decide in retrospect, as time has gone on,
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: as we've all learned and grown, decide is racist in nature,
• 17:18
  Speaker 1: has racial themes, then you too are racist and they
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: are calling you racist. And that is sort of, I think,
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: the driving power of their argument or at least what
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: they think it is.
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: Yeah, that makes sense.
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: Now, the question is, do you think it has any
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: appeal beyond the base? Obviously, this fires up the Republican
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: base like that is obvious. We know that. But does
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: it have any appeal beyond the base? And does it
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: need to for it to work, I guess, which are
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: sort of two different questions.
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: I don't believe it has appeal beyond the base, but
• 17:51
  Speaker 2: it serves two functions that could potentially inure to the
• 17:56
  Speaker 2: benefit of the Republicans in 2022 and beyond. Midterm elections
• 18:00
  Speaker 2: are turnout elections. And so if this fires up the base,
• 18:04
  Speaker 2: that is good. That helps them win. So that's part one.
• 18:07
  Speaker 2: Part two is it unites the Republican Party, which they
• 18:12
  Speaker 2: need to do. They are divided. And they are divided
• 18:14
  Speaker 2: on a whole host of pretty fundamental areas. As you
• 18:17
  Speaker 2: pointed out, there is an irreconcilable tension between a mostly
• 18:21
  Speaker 2: working class base that has some populist economic leanings and
• 18:25
  Speaker 2: a party leadership that is plutocratic and corporatist in nature
• 18:29
  Speaker 2: and is funded by big corporations. That tension does not
• 18:32
  Speaker 2: survive a conversation about the minimum wage. It does survive
• 18:35
  Speaker 2: a conversation on a whole host of cultural issues with
• 18:39
  Speaker 2: racial and misogynistic undertones. So in that sense, it is useful.
• 18:44
  Speaker 2: The other thing it does is it blots out the sun.
• 18:47
  Speaker 2: The right wing media has a giant megaphone. We are
• 18:49
  Speaker 2: talking about this. There's a lot of self-analysis about why
• 18:53
  Speaker 2: we are talking about it, but it moves the conversation
• 18:57
  Speaker 2: off of other things. And that is also of benefit
• 19:01
  Speaker 2: to them when they are losing the argument by a
• 19:04
  Speaker 2: pretty large margin on a whole bunch of other more
• 19:07
  Speaker 2: relevant issues like the American Rescue Plan itself and just
• 19:11
  Speaker 2: the general pace of vaccinations and the way President Biden
• 19:15
  Speaker 2: is handling the COVID pandemic in ways that Donald Trump
• 19:18
  Speaker 2: did not.
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I would love to see some focus groups on this,
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: particularly of people who've switched parties in recent elections and
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: people who've switched between voting and not voting. So these
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: kind of like uncommitted partisans. And there's a couple of
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: things you have to unpack with these issues. One is like,
• 19:39
  Speaker 1: is this information getting to people sort of through the
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: funhouse mirror of conservative media, right? So A, do people
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: think about these issues? issues in terms of, oh, I
• 19:51
  Speaker 1: heard all of Dr. Seuss's books are getting canceled and Mr.
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: Potato Head is going away, right? Because we need like
• 19:57
  Speaker 1: a woker Potato Head or whatever it is. So first
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: of all, what they're hearing about the issue isn't necessarily
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: true because it's coming at them through all the lies
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: that Fox produces. So that's number one. Number two, even
• 20:09
  Speaker 1: if they agree with the Republicans on these issues, are
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: they voting issues? So if there's a voter who says, yeah,
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: I agree that cancel culture shouldn't come for Dr. Seuss
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: and Mr. Potato Head or whatever, but I care more
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: about a higher minimum wage and the rescue plan, so
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: I'm going to vote with the Democrats. So it would
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: be interesting to see both how these issues break through
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: to people, what their views are on the issues, and
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: how much salience they attach to these issues. So are
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: they actual voting issues? And the other question too is,
• 20:38
  Speaker 1: Is it any one of these issues that drives vote
• 20:41
  Speaker 1: or is it sort of a larger worldview where you're
• 20:44
  Speaker 1: living in a small town somewhere and the Republicans and
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: Fox News get you to think? That people in big
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: cities just don't give a shit about you. Not just
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: your economic interests, but like your culture, your way of life.
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: They think they know better. They think you're dumb. They
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: think you're racist. They think you're Neanderthal. And that's how
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: blue America on the coast thinks about small towns, right?
• 21:07
  Speaker 1: And in all of these issues, Dr. Seuss potato head
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: are just another sort of proof point in that larger narrative.
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: And does that larger narrative actually have some power in
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: those smaller towns? is a question I would love to know.
• 21:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah, we need to see research, but a lot of
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: Trump's success in 2016 is related to his ability to
• 21:28
  Speaker 2: sell that latter narrative you just had. And that's the
• 21:31
  Speaker 2: magic that they're trying to recapture. And it is very
• 21:34
  Speaker 2: consistent with how Richard Nixon won in 68 and 72.
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: It is very core to Ronald Reagan's message in 1980.
• 21:45
  Speaker 2: We like to think these things are all new and
• 21:47
  Speaker 2: that Donald Trump reinvented the Republican wheel, but Donald Trump
• 21:51
  Speaker 2: is much closer to the standard Republican politician in terms
• 21:55
  Speaker 2: of message and narrative than is comfortable for a lot
• 21:58
  Speaker 2: of people to deal with.
• 22:01
  Speaker 1: And last question on this before we move on, how,
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: if at all, should President Biden and Democrats respond to
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: this cancel culture bullshit? So far, Joe Biden has studiously
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: avoided talking about Dr. Seuss and Mr. Potato Head. Imagine that. But,
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: you know, this is going to keep coming up. I'm
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: sure it'll come up in the 2022 midterms. I'm sure
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: Biden will continue to get asked about it. So will Democrats.
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: How do you think we should respond?
• 22:26
  Speaker 2: There are two elements to this answer that are different
• 22:29
  Speaker 2: for various participants. John Anzalone, who is Joe Biden's pollster,
• 22:34
  Speaker 2: who was Barack Obama's pollster, and is really in his
• 22:36
  Speaker 2: expertise as winning in red states, particularly in the South.
• 22:39
  Speaker 2: He had a quote from the other day, that there
• 22:41
  Speaker 2: was no upside in Joe Biden talking about this. He
• 22:42
  Speaker 2: should focus on the pandemic, the economy, writing the ship.
• 22:46
  Speaker 2: And I think that is exactly right for Joe Biden.
• 22:48
  Speaker 2: There is no upside in engaging this at all. The
• 22:51
  Speaker 2: question will be for other Democrats who are on the
• 22:55
  Speaker 2: ballot in 2022. I don't think Potato Head and Dr.
• 22:57
  Speaker 2: Seuss are going to be issues that people are talking about,
• 22:59
  Speaker 2: but the narrative. There's going to be other things that
• 23:02
  Speaker 2: make that point. And you're going to have to deal
• 23:04
  Speaker 2: with that. And we used to say in the Trump
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: era that We can't avoid the cultural fights that Donald
• 23:12
  Speaker 2: Trump picks. We have to figure out how to win them.
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: And I think that's going to be true for Democrats.
• 23:15
  Speaker 2: You're going to have to take this and pivot off
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: of it. Republicans care about this thing that is disconnected
• 23:20
  Speaker 2: from your life, while Democrats care about this. You can't
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: just pretend like you're operating in two different ecosystems and
• 23:27
  Speaker 2: ignore what's happening. You're going to have to say, if
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: the election were tomorrow, while Democrats in Congress are passing
• 23:35
  Speaker 2: a bill that does X, Y, and Z, while Republicans
• 23:37
  Speaker 2: are talking about this. We've always said this before, but
• 23:41
  Speaker 2: you don't fall into the trap of playing their game.
• 23:43
  Speaker 2: You call out the game and explain why Republicans are
• 23:46
  Speaker 2: making the case they are and how that affects your
• 23:48
  Speaker 2: life and what they're trying to distract you from.
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, some Democrats in the past have suggested strategists,
• 23:54
  Speaker 1: you know, only talk about economic issues. I think that
• 23:57
  Speaker 1: is both not wise to do, and it's also hard
• 24:02
  Speaker 1: to just do, right? Because Republicans are the ones, because
• 24:05
  Speaker 1: you're not doing this in a vacuum. Republicans are going
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: to keep talking about this. I think you ignore these
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: individual blowups to whatever extent you can, especially if you
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: don't have the power to control them. But you do
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: stand up for equity and against discrimination more broadly, like,
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: for example, you know, Biden on his first day signs
• 24:23
  Speaker 1: an executive order protecting gay and transgender Americans from discrimination
• 24:26
  Speaker 1: in schools, health care and the workplace. So you stand
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: up and be proud of these sort of larger values
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: that most Americans would agree with while avoiding the dumb
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: fucking controversies on Fox News about Mr. Potato Head and Dr. Seuss.
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: That's that's sort of one way to both And also,
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: like you said, and call out the game that they're playing, right?
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: Like you call out their game, you talk about your
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: own values and what you believe. And then, of course,
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: you also talk about the issues where you get broad
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: agreement among the electorate. So let's talk about the Republican
• 25:10
  Speaker 1: Party and some issues they're having. The party's various committees
• 25:16
  Speaker 1: over the last week were sent a series of cease
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: and desist letters from none other than Donald Trump, who
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: demanded that they stop using his name and likeness to
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: raise money. He also released a statement that declared no
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: more money for rhinos and asked people to donate directly
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: to his own pack. Then Republican officials all went nuts
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: and got Trump to issue a follow-up statement where he said,
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: I fully support the Republican Party and important GOP committees,
• 25:43
  Speaker 1: but I do not support rhinos and fools. P.S. Part
• 25:47
  Speaker 1: of the RNC's spring donor retreat has already been scheduled
• 25:50
  Speaker 1: to take place at Mar-a-Lago, of course. How much anxiety
• 25:55
  Speaker 1: do you think this caused Republicans?
• 25:57
  Speaker 2: I'm sure it causes them a ton of anxiety because
• 26:00
  Speaker 2: to the extent that they have a grassroots fundraising base,
• 26:03
  Speaker 2: it is from Donald Trump. He created it. It's based
• 26:07
  Speaker 2: on his name, his brand, his list. And so if
• 26:11
  Speaker 2: they were to potentially lose that, that would be potentially
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: very damaging to the party and their ability to keep
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: up with Democrats. Because you really do– when you are–
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: this is part of why our campaign finance system is
• 26:24
  Speaker 2: so gross. But when you are out of power– You
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: really have to rely on individuals who are not trying
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: to buy access in order to raise money. Corporations give
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: less money. Lobbyists give less money for organizations that can't
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: accept lobbyists. PACs for organizations that can't accept PACs give
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: less money when you are not in a position to
• 26:43
  Speaker 2: advocate for their agenda and you rely on individual donors.
• 26:47
  Speaker 2: If Trump takes that list home with him, then that
• 26:51
  Speaker 2: would be problematic for the party for sure.
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: So let's talk about why we think that Trump is
• 26:56
  Speaker 1: trying to siphon donations away from the Republican Party. Few
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: options here. Power. Greed. He just wants the money. PACs
• 27:04
  Speaker 1: have very few limitations to how you can spend the money.
• 27:07
  Speaker 1: So he could ostensibly pay himself and his family a
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: salary with the money. Or both. What do you think?
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: It's both.
• 27:16
  Speaker 2: I think, you know, I remember a long time ago,
• 27:21
  Speaker 2: Lovett once describing Donald Trump's sort of approach to negotiation
• 27:27
  Speaker 2: as a guy trying to sell a countertop, basically. It's
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: like to his real estate contractor days. And I think
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: this is a pure leverage play. It's definitely fueled by
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: anger and petulance and stupidity. But this is his main
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: point of leverage over the party is his list and
• 27:43
  Speaker 2: the use of his name to raise money. To the
• 27:45
  Speaker 2: extent that they have any sense that they may try
• 27:47
  Speaker 2: to offer a little distance, he lords this over them.
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: That's part of it. There's definitely grift involved. There's always
• 27:54
  Speaker 2: grift involved with Trump. This PAC, I believe, would have
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: to disclose its expenditures publicly. So we would theoretically know
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: if he was just lining his own pockets from it.
• 28:05
  Speaker 2: But the Trump campaign, which also had to disclose things,
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: put a lot of money through shell corporations to make
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: it harder to know exactly what's being spent. So he
• 28:14
  Speaker 2: could– there's definitely going to be a lot of– stuff happening.
• 28:18
  Speaker 2: And it is, of course, fitting that the, how does
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: the RNC begin to mend fences with Trump? They give
• 28:28
  Speaker 2: him money by putting their event at Mar-a-Lago.
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, let's talk about the implications of this first
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: from a fundraising perspective. If Donald Trump is sort of
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: vacuuming up all the small dollar donations in the party,
• 28:40
  Speaker 1: like what does that mean for Republican politicians in general?
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: How much do they need to rely on grassroots donors
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: versus their traditional base of rich assholes and big corporations?
• 28:50
  Speaker 2: You know, there was this big thought right after January
• 28:54
  Speaker 2: 6th that Republicans were losing their corporate donation base. This
• 29:01
  Speaker 2: was a theory that I put forward, others did, about
• 29:05
  Speaker 2: why Mitch McConnell was trying to have some separation with Trump.
• 29:08
  Speaker 2: Why Kevin McCarthy originally thought he was open to censuring
• 29:12
  Speaker 2: Trump was that all the donors said, We're not going
• 29:14
  Speaker 2: to be with you. A bunch of big corporations and
• 29:16
  Speaker 2: PACs put a pause on their donations. If you pay
• 29:19
  Speaker 2: close attention, that is quietly and quickly unwinding and all
• 29:23
  Speaker 2: the usual special interests are coming back to the Republican Party,
• 29:26
  Speaker 2: but they still need it.
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: They need both.
• 29:30
  Speaker 2: It is concerning. It is damaging. Will it be devastating?
• 29:36
  Speaker 2: Probably not, but it's not a problem that you want
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: if you're the RNC or the NRCC or the NRSC,
• 29:40
  Speaker 2: and so you want to fix it because when you're
• 29:44
  Speaker 2: out of power, raising money is harder than when you're
• 29:46
  Speaker 2: in power.
• 29:48
  Speaker 1: Those are the fundraising implications. I do think the political
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: implications here are another example of Trump maintaining an iron
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: grip over this party. And like the idea, well, again,
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: whether he, whether or not he runs in 2024, um,
• 30:05
  Speaker 1: this is still his party, uh, his, he's going to
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: exert tremendous influence over primary candidates in the 2022 midterms. Um,
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: and you're not going to be able to have a
• 30:17
  Speaker 1: successful future in the Republican party. If you do not
• 30:20
  Speaker 1: at least pledge fealty to Donald Trump, You cannot, you know,
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: like the idea that they're going to get all the
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: excitement that Donald Trump generates among the Republican base, but
• 30:32
  Speaker 1: none of the, you know, none of the horror he
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: generates among a lot of suburban and independent voters by saying, oh,
• 30:41
  Speaker 1: we loved his policies and we loved some of the
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: things he accomplished. This is what Lindsey Graham does. But,
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: you know, and sometimes he was a little too much.
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: His character was a little too much. You can't do that.
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: You're not gonna be able to, you're not gonna be
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: able to split the baby here. If you're a Republican,
• 30:56
  Speaker 1: you are going to have to go full pro-Trump or
• 30:59
  Speaker 1: be an anti-Trump guy and then be, you know, run
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: out of the party when he tries to fund a
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: primary challenger against you. Right? Like, I don't think there's
• 31:06
  Speaker 1: a middle ground.
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: Yeah, for sure. And I think the specific way in
• 31:10
  Speaker 2: which this power play by Trump may play itself out
• 31:13
  Speaker 2: is in the primaries that Trump wants against incumbent House
• 31:18
  Speaker 2: members that voted for impeachment. Theoretically, the congressional campaign committees
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: are incumbent protection operations. It is why under the previous regime,
• 31:29
  Speaker 2: the DCCC blacklisted consultants who worked for primary challengers to
• 31:32
  Speaker 2: become Democrats. That has been unwound this cycle, but ultimately
• 31:37
  Speaker 2: it's funded a lot by members who pay dues, they
• 31:40
  Speaker 2: protect members. So what happens for Liz Cheney here? In
• 31:43
  Speaker 2: a normal world, the NRCC would go all out to
• 31:47
  Speaker 2: defend the number three Republican against a primary challenge. But
• 31:51
  Speaker 2: Trump's not going to let him do that if they
• 31:52
  Speaker 2: want to send emails with Trump's name. And so that–
• 31:56
  Speaker 2: like it's going to have some specific implications and it
• 31:58
  Speaker 2: could have implications in the kind of candidates who get
• 32:00
  Speaker 2: nominated in some of these districts where there may be
• 32:04
  Speaker 2: a– look at Georgia where Trump sent out a statement
• 32:08
  Speaker 2: via tweet encouraging Herschel Walker, the former Cowboys, Minnesota Vikings
• 32:13
  Speaker 2: and University of Georgia running back to run for Senate.
• 32:16
  Speaker 2: I'm guessing that the NRSC would rather have David Perdue
• 32:20
  Speaker 2: run again than Herschel Walker. But if they want to
• 32:23
  Speaker 2: use Trump's name, they're not going to put their muscle
• 32:25
  Speaker 2: behind the candidate that they want to win. They're either
• 32:28
  Speaker 2: going to have to step back or help Trump. And
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: so I think it's not going to have this gigantic
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: impact on how much money the party raises. It could
• 32:34
  Speaker 2: have some, but it is going to have some more
• 32:37
  Speaker 2: impact on more and more micro level things. It could
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: be decisive in whether Republicans take the House and the Senate.
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: All right. Speaking of the midterms, let's talk about Democrats
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: in the midterms. Thomas Edsel, who writes about politics and
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: demographics for The New York Times, has a column this
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: week titled Democrats are anxious about 2022. It starts in
• 33:04
  Speaker 1: the wake of the 2020 election. Democratic strategists are worried,
• 33:07
  Speaker 1: very worried about the future of the Hispanic vote. One
• 33:11
  Speaker 1: in 10 Latinos who supported Hillary Clinton in 2016 switched
• 33:14
  Speaker 1: to Donald Trump in 2020. So we've touched on this
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: topic before. What's changed is that we now have better
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: data on what happened in 2020, more precinct level data,
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: better surveys than the exit polls. And in some states,
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: we even have individual level vote history. So what does
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: all this data tell us? David Shore, who was on
• 33:33
  Speaker 1: the Obama 2012 data team, laid it all out for
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: New York Magazine's Eric Levitz the other week. Between 2016
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: and 2020, Democrats gained less than 1% among non-college whites.
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: and 7% among white college graduates. So those were our gains.
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: We lost a little over 1% among black voters and
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: more than 8% among Latino voters. The story with Asian
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: American voters is still out there because we're still waiting
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: for some of the California level precincts to come in.
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: And that's where a lot of Asian American voters are. Anyway,
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: in one of the more dramatic examples that Shore cites,
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: a precinct in Doral, which is a Venezuelan and Colombian
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: neighborhood in South Florida that we focused on in the wilderness,
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: swung from a 40-point Hillary Clinton win to a 10-point
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: Donald Trump win. So I want to stop there because
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: we talked a few pods ago about the debate over
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: whether Latinos in Texas turned out at different rates in
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: 2020 or if they switched parties differently. It certainly seems
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: from this data like it's a story about Latinos who
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: voted for Hillary and then switched to Trump. What's sort
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: of your reaction to all that based on this data?
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: This is fascinating. And you always have to have the
• 34:50
  Speaker 2: important caveat when talking about the Latino vote, which is
• 34:53
  Speaker 2: it is incredibly diverse. And we're talking about huge disparities
• 34:58
  Speaker 2: and differences across geography and that what is true in
• 35:02
  Speaker 2: Florida about the Latino vote. has almost no connection of
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: what is true about the Latino vote in Texas or
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: Arizona or elsewhere. You're talking about people who, in some cases,
• 35:10
  Speaker 2: are immigrant communities. Some cases are people who have been
• 35:14
  Speaker 2: here so long that the border moved. They moved before
• 35:18
  Speaker 2: the border. And so it's just a very complicated thing.
• 35:21
  Speaker 2: And the Doral example and the sort of well-known and
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: well-documented vote switching in Miami-Dade is a very specific thing
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: about Florida. And the communities of people from Colombian and
• 35:34
  Speaker 2: Venezuelan descent, according to David Chor's view here, are much
• 35:41
  Speaker 2: more sensitive to the socialism attacks from Republicans than necessarily
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: someone of Mexican-American descent in Texas or Arizona. This is
• 35:50
  Speaker 2: one of those things where all things are true. There
• 35:54
  Speaker 2: was definitely a difference in turnout. There were non-voting Republican
• 35:59
  Speaker 2: Latinos who voted in 2020. And there were also people
• 36:02
  Speaker 2: who voted for Hillary in 2016 and voted for Trump
• 36:05
  Speaker 2: in 2020. Both those things happen. It's happening on the
• 36:08
  Speaker 2: margins in a lot of cases, but the margins matter,
• 36:11
  Speaker 2: particularly now as the electoral map has narrowed for Democrats
• 36:16
  Speaker 2: and we're now more dependent on the Sun Belt where
• 36:20
  Speaker 2: there is a higher Hispanic vote population than when we
• 36:24
  Speaker 2: could count on being competitive in Ohio and Iowa. And
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: so we have to pay attention to all of this
• 36:30
  Speaker 2: and really dig deep and understand what has happened because
• 36:35
  Speaker 2: slight shifts are the ball game for us in 2022
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: and 2024.
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: It's also tough because on one hand, like you said,
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: you never want to overgeneralize about the Latino vote because
• 36:47
  Speaker 1: it is so diverse and there are so many different
• 36:49
  Speaker 1: Latino communities in different parts of the country. On the
• 36:52
  Speaker 1: other hand, some of these swings happen not just in
• 36:57
  Speaker 1: Miami and And in Florida or in the Rio Grande Valley,
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: in Texas, but in precincts literally all across the country
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: that are heavily Latino, including precincts in New York, including
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: precincts in California, right? So it is a widespread problem,
• 37:11
  Speaker 1: even though the causes of the problem could be different
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: in different areas because the Latino vote is so diverse.
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: So the big question is, why did these Latino voters switch?
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: Or even, you know, like you said, both are true, right?
• 37:23
  Speaker 1: So why did some Latino voters switch from Clinton to Trump?
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: And why did other Latino voters stay home in 16
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: and then vote for Trump in 2020? Either way, Trump
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: was getting a bunch more Latino votes in 20. Why
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: did it happen? So there's a bunch of data cited
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: by Shore and Edsel that it has to do with
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: self-reported ideology. So for a long time, Black and Latino
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: voters who self-identified as more conservative still tended to vote
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: for Democrats by huge margins. Even if their self-identity was,
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: I'm more conservative, but I'm still voting for a Democrat.
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: That has shifted. And now these more conservative voters of
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: color are starting to vote for Republicans, especially black men
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: and especially Latinos. Again, why? So Shor's theory, and now
• 38:08
  Speaker 1: we're getting into survey data, so it's not quite as definitive.
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: is that the Latino voters who switched from Clinton to
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: Trump or who backed Trump in 20 tended to have
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: more conservative views on crime, policing, and public safety. He
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: also said that these conservative Latinos have even more restrictive
• 38:24
  Speaker 1: views on immigration. So, Dan, our friend Carlos Odio, another
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: former Obama person who's now at Equis Research, we had
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: him on the pod before, he responded to Shore with
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: a different view. He said that more conservative Latinos who
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: may have agreed with Trump on issues like the wall
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: still refuse to vote Republican in 16 or 18 because
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: of policies like family separation or anti-immigrant rhetoric. In 2020,
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: because immigration was no longer a centerpiece of the campaign
• 38:55
  Speaker 1: like it was in 16 and 18, conservative Latinos focused
• 38:59
  Speaker 1: more on their own economic insecurity and believed Trump, the businessman,
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: could help them. And some other Latinos who cared a
• 39:06
  Speaker 1: lot about immigration in 16 and 18 stayed home because
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: neither party made it a big issue in 20. So
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: a lot to unpack there, but sort of what's your
• 39:14
  Speaker 1: reaction to all of that and to sort of the
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: debate between, and I don't even know if it's a
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: real debate because there's a lot of overlap, but between
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: Carlos's take on the situation and sort of David Shore's
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: take on the situation.
• 39:26
  Speaker 2: It's hard to know because we have not seen either
• 39:30
  Speaker 2: data set, the survey data that led David Shore to
• 39:33
  Speaker 2: argue one thing and then Carlos to argue essentially the opposite, right?
• 39:37
  Speaker 2: In one case, if you really boil it down. David
• 39:39
  Speaker 2: Shore is saying that Democrats lost conservative Latinos in part
• 39:42
  Speaker 2: because we talked about immigration too much. And Carlos is
• 39:45
  Speaker 2: saying we lost conservative Latinos because we didn't talk about
• 39:47
  Speaker 2: immigration enough. And so I don't know the answer to that.
• 39:51
  Speaker 2: But what I think is important from this, whether you
• 39:54
  Speaker 2: come down on Carlos's side or David Shore's side, and
• 39:58
  Speaker 2: I don't want to imply that there's some gigantic disagreement
• 40:00
  Speaker 2: between them, but there is this assumption among a lot
• 40:04
  Speaker 2: of people in politics that Black voters and Latino voters are,
• 40:10
  Speaker 2: by definition, more liberal than white voters. And that's not
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: the case. About the same percentage of black and brown
• 40:15
  Speaker 2: voters identify as conservative as white voters. The only difference
• 40:18
  Speaker 2: has been they voted for Democrats over the years. And
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: I think it's very important to understand why that shift happened.
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: And there's more research to be done. But this is
• 40:28
  Speaker 2: the ballgame. If we continue to either stay flat with
• 40:33
  Speaker 2: working class white voters or continue to– to erode there,
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: which is very possible. It may be that Joe Biden
• 40:39
  Speaker 2: is the high watermark for the near future for Democrats
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: with that group of voters. We cannot afford to lose
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: any voters to still win. And so we have to
• 40:50
  Speaker 2: understand what happened and why.
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: I also think there, I mean, well, to bring this
• 40:55
  Speaker 1: to sort of current day application, like how do you
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: think this debate informs the way that Biden and the
• 41:02
  Speaker 1: Democrats handle and talk about the influx of migrants at
• 41:05
  Speaker 1: the border right now?
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: I talked about this with Dara Lind on a recent podcast.
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: Could have been last week, could have been last month.
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: Time has no meaning. I think it was two weeks ago,
• 41:16
  Speaker 2: but I'm not sure. And we knew this from the
• 41:19
  Speaker 2: time in which Obama was president, which is the influx
• 41:22
  Speaker 2: of migrant children is one of the toughest policy problems
• 41:24
  Speaker 2: you're going to face because there are no good answers
• 41:26
  Speaker 2: and it is inherently controversial. And I could offer a
• 41:30
  Speaker 2: bunch of political messaging advice, and I'm not sure there
• 41:33
  Speaker 2: is a good message for this. It's just to try
• 41:35
  Speaker 2: to solve the problem as best as you can. And
• 41:37
  Speaker 2: to the extent you have to talk about, I think,
• 41:40
  Speaker 2: being able to draw specific comparisons about what you were
• 41:42
  Speaker 2: doing different and better than Trump is right. And there
• 41:46
  Speaker 2: has been this debate about when reporters and advocates would
• 41:50
  Speaker 2: be able to see the facilities that the Biden administration
• 41:54
  Speaker 2: is housing these unaccompanied migrant children in. And I think
• 41:58
  Speaker 2: being able to show them that, and that is even
• 42:00
  Speaker 2: more complicated by the fact that we are in a
• 42:02
  Speaker 2: pandemic and you have to be very careful about who
• 42:06
  Speaker 2: you expose to this. But whatever way you can show
• 42:08
  Speaker 2: people that you are doing what the best you can
• 42:13
  Speaker 2: and you are improving upon what Trump did and try
• 42:15
  Speaker 2: to compare yourself to the alternative, i.e. Trump, as opposed
• 42:18
  Speaker 2: to what is the best possible solution to a very
• 42:21
  Speaker 2: challenging problem.
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: I've been thinking about this. And there was something that
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: Carlos said in his sort of tweet storm that I
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: think probably overlaps with sort of what Shor was saying too,
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: which is like, we think about these issues like immigration
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: or policing, and we sort of overgeneralize about the issue
• 42:39
  Speaker 1: when there are actually different policy positions within each issue
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: that matter a lot to different groups. So for example,
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: and people feel cross pressured between those policy positions. So
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: for example, when Carlos said, there's a bunch of conservative
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: Latino voters who agree with Trump on the wall, And
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: then he does family separation or he starts deporting a
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: bunch of people or he calls Mexicans criminals and rapists.
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: And they come out to vote against Donald Trump, even
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: if they agree with him on the wall. And, you know,
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: within immigration, there is majority support among all races for
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: things like the Dreamers. for a path to citizenship, for
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: stopping just, you know, deporting people who have been here
• 43:21
  Speaker 1: for a long, long time. There is also majority support
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: among people of all races for border security. And there's
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: probably a majority of people who are against the idea
• 43:32
  Speaker 1: of decriminalizing all border crossings. Right. And so there's like
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: same thing. And on the other side, the issue of policing,
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: like defunding the police when you describe it like that
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: is not popular, not only with white voters, but also
• 43:48
  Speaker 1: with large segments of black voters and Latino voters. When
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: you talk about police accountability, when you talk about making
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: sure that law enforcement treats everyone the same, regardless of
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: what they look like, when you talk about holding police
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: accountable for committing violence, then you get majority support across
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: all races. And there are both policy positions and the
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: way you talk about these things that can sort of
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: capture a majority of support from voters of all races,
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: but you have to be careful and actually talk in
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: a way and have policies that sort of persuade a
• 44:26
  Speaker 1: majority of people. Basically, the idea is like everyone is
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: a persuadable voter. We've talked about this before, right? And
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: like we should never assume that just because of someone's
• 44:34
  Speaker 1: demographic that they are set in their policy ways and
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: that they cannot be persuaded to sort of you know,
• 44:41
  Speaker 1: come to your side on a certain policy agreement.
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: You know, I am sure, for example, the Biden campaign
• 44:47
  Speaker 2: data was much more sophisticated in this, but in a
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: lot of cases, like in down ballot races, someone who
• 44:52
  Speaker 2: is identified as Latino or lives in a primary Latino
• 44:56
  Speaker 2: precinct is viewed as a GOTV target, a turnout target,
• 45:00
  Speaker 2: not a persuasion target. And that becomes a huge error.
• 45:03
  Speaker 2: The other thing about this is, and I think you
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: make a really good point, Is there sort of this
• 45:07
  Speaker 2: shtick among people reacting whenever there's a conversation about defund
• 45:11
  Speaker 2: the police or immigration and its impact in the 2020
• 45:13
  Speaker 2: election is, my view is Democrats should talk about popular
• 45:16
  Speaker 2: unifying things and not talk about unpopular divisive things. Well,
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: it's like, thank you, Twitter political expert. I wish it
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: was that simple. Because it's not. Because even if, let's
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: say we were to get concrete data that said Democrats
• 45:28
  Speaker 2: talking about immigration was a net negative. You still have
• 45:32
  Speaker 2: a situation of border you have to deal with. They're
• 45:34
  Speaker 2: going to have to talk about it. We'll still be
• 45:36
  Speaker 2: in the news. And so to your point, you have
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: to find ways to talk about these things that are
• 45:42
  Speaker 2: broadly appealing, with a broadly appealing message to that group.
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: And you can't– obviously, you can't get sucked down into
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: only talking about the things driven by the news. You
• 45:50
  Speaker 2: have to– Biden's got to be out, as you guys
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: talked about on Monday, selling the American Rescue Plan, pushing
• 45:55
  Speaker 2: for these popular policies like the minimum wage, touting your successes.
• 45:58
  Speaker 2: But there are times when you're going to have to
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: talk about unpopular, divisive issues. And I'm not saying immigration
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: is one. But if you were just to assume that
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: it was for a second, that is going to come
• 46:08
  Speaker 2: up all the time. And you're going to have to
• 46:09
  Speaker 2: talk about it. You're going to have to figure out
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: how to talk about it. You can't just say, the
• 46:11
  Speaker 2: answer can't be, I'm going to raise the minimum wage.
• 46:13
  Speaker 2: Or did you get your relief check? You have to
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: talk about immigration. That is the nature of politics.
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: I'll give an example. In the Obama years, the president,
• 46:23
  Speaker 1: or after the Obama years, really, the president got criticism for...
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: being for enhanced border security, because he was trying in
• 46:34
  Speaker 1: vain to get Republican votes for immigration reform. And we
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: know that the reason that Obama talked about securing the
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: border and said that we're a nation of laws and
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: a nation of immigrants was not just because he thought
• 46:48
  Speaker 1: maybe he could get some Republican votes or even that
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: he thought at all he could get some Republican votes
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: for immigration reform. It's because He was trying to reflect
• 46:57
  Speaker 1: the views of a majority of Americans who believe that, yes,
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: undocumented immigrants who've been here for years should be allowed
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: to become citizens in this country. But we do have
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: to have some kind of security at the border because
• 47:14
  Speaker 1: there are a lot of people who come to this
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: country and apply to become citizens or apply for asylum
• 47:19
  Speaker 1: through proper channels. And if ultimately all we're going to
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: say is you can just come across the border and
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: and stay, and you don't have to go through the
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: official channels, and you don't have to apply to citizenship,
• 47:29
  Speaker 1: and you don't have to apply to asylum, you can
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: just walk across and become a citizen, then what does
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: that say to all the people who've done it through
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: the proper channels and who do that every single day?
• 47:38
  Speaker 1: And so like, it isn't, you know, like, you do
• 47:40
  Speaker 1: have to sort of balance these things. And you have
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: to at least start from a place to meet the
• 47:45
  Speaker 1: American people where they are, right, where most of the
• 47:48
  Speaker 1: people in this country are, which is, They want to
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: provide a pathway to citizenship for people who've been here,
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: but they also want to make sure that we have
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: borders that we can control. On the other side of this,
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: if you are like dealing with a policy position that
• 48:04
  Speaker 1: is maybe unpopular, you can also talk about it in
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: a different way. A couple of pods ago, again, I
• 48:10
  Speaker 1: don't remember how many ago. I talked to Savante Myrick,
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: the mayor of Ithaca. He is literally last week.
• 48:17
  Speaker 2: One week ago.
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: It was the last week. OK, there you go. There
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: you go. Literally, he has literally proposed the most radical
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: reimagining of policing in the country. Does he talk about
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: defunding the police? He does not. He talks about how
• 48:30
  Speaker 1: it's going to be more funding for public safety. Does
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: he talk about how he's going to get rid of cops?
• 48:34
  Speaker 1: He does not. He talks about how there's going to
• 48:35
  Speaker 1: be more public safety officers. But the way he talks
• 48:38
  Speaker 1: about it, the way he talks about this like fairly
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: radical reimagining of the police department, which he is abolishing.
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: He is abolishing the police department. But he's talking about
• 48:46
  Speaker 1: it in terms of there's going to be more public safety.
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: There's going to be better public safety. There's going to
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: be more accountable public safety. We're going to work with
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: people on this. Like his whole language, the way he
• 48:57
  Speaker 1: talked about it. was in a way that sort of
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: meets people where they are and also understands that some
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: people have concerns that may be legitimate about this new proposal.
• 49:09
  Speaker 1: And yet he's still bold enough to go forward with it. Right.
• 49:13
  Speaker 1: So I do think like when we when we forget
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: that people and voters specifically can still be persuaded we
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: sort of fall into this, you know, belief that like, Oh,
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: nothing can be done. And people are just going to
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: vote based on their demographic or based on their party.
• 49:28
  Speaker 1: And there's nothing we can all do. So it's all
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: just a turnout game. And that's just not the way
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: that the electoral works.
• 49:33
  Speaker 2: And actually that is the one point that both Carlos and, and,
• 49:38
  Speaker 2: David Shore, and Tom Edsel all say is that we
• 49:41
  Speaker 2: actually won because we persuaded people. We lost some voters
• 49:45
  Speaker 2: because Trump persuaded them, but we persuaded more. That 1%
• 49:49
  Speaker 2: difference in white non-college voters is a huge deal. That
• 49:55
  Speaker 2: is the difference in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, in every state that
• 49:59
  Speaker 2: was so close. And so persuasion can– all politics is persuasion.
• 50:05
  Speaker 2: And we have made such a fundamental mistake into shifting,
• 50:09
  Speaker 2: into bifurcating the discussion of messaging into turnout and persuasion,
• 50:14
  Speaker 2: when everyone has a persuasion target in some way, shape,
• 50:17
  Speaker 2: or form.
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I mean, Stacey Abrams says this all the time.
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: They signed up and registered a record number of elderly
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: Black Americans in Georgia, voters who had never voted in
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: their entire life, and then older Black voters that said,
• 50:33
  Speaker 1: in this election, I'm going to vote. That's not just
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: like turning out a base. That's just not just showing
• 50:38
  Speaker 1: up at their house and saying, oh, yeah, you've just
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: been waiting for an organizer to come and register to vote.
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: There is a reason that those Georgians didn't vote before
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: and that the organizers in Georgia persuaded them that in 2020,
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: it was important enough for them to come out and
• 50:53
  Speaker 1: cast a ballot. They might not have believed it was
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: important otherwise, and they persuaded them to do so. And
• 50:57
  Speaker 1: so that's why I think we should just we have
• 50:58
  Speaker 1: to remember to never give up. I think the lesson
• 51:00
  Speaker 1: of all this is to never give up on persuasion.
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: So and that's it. That's all we got for today, Dan.
• 51:07
  Speaker 2: Whoa.
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: Let's go. Yeah, we got no, we got no guests today.
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: And so everyone have a good weekend and, you know,
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: buy up all your Dr. Seuss books, hold them close.
• 51:20
  Speaker 1: You never know. You never know when Joe Biden might
• 51:22
  Speaker 1: take them away.
• 51:24
  Speaker 2: We made it through this podcast about Hallie going into labor,
• 51:26
  Speaker 2: which was a huge win for everyone involved, especially Tommy,
• 51:30
  Speaker 2: who was sitting in the wings waiting to fill in
• 51:31
  Speaker 2: for me. If that happened.
• 51:33
  Speaker 1: Tommy texts Dan this morning and he's like, Dan, are
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: you on the way to the hospital? Because Tommy was
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: going to have to fill in if you were. And
• 51:41
  Speaker 1: there was just long enough where you didn't reply that
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: I know Tommy was getting pretty nervous.
• 51:45
  Speaker 2: Well, the reason I didn't reply is in preparation for
• 51:49
  Speaker 2: the arrival of her brother, Kyla decided to wake up
• 51:53
  Speaker 2: before 545 every day. So I was I was fully parenting. Oh, wow.
• 51:59
  Speaker 2: Incredibly early hour. Yeah.
• 52:01
  Speaker 1: That is an early hour.
• 52:02
  Speaker 2: What I'm saying to you, John, is it never gets easier.
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: Oh, good. That's good. Something to look forward to. All right. Well,
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: have a good weekend to you and to everyone else.
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: We'll talk to you on Monday.
• 52:11
  Speaker 2: Bye, everyone.
• 52:16
  Speaker 1: Pod Save America is a Crooked Media production. The executive
• 52:19
  Speaker 1: producer is Michael Martinez. Our associate producer is Jordan Waller.
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: It's mixed and edited by Andrew Chadwick. Kyle Seglin is
• 52:26
  Speaker 1: our sound engineer. Thanks to Tanya Sominator, Katie Long, Roman Papadimitriou,
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: Caroline Rustin, and Justine Howe for production support. And to
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: our digital team, Elijah Cohn, Nar Melkonian, Yale Freed, and
• 52:37
  Speaker 1: Milo Kim, who film and upload these episodes as videos
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: every week.