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The Favorites - NFL Week 15 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: I am Shad Moment of the Action Network. Today is
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: our Tuesday Week fifteen episode where we break down the
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: entire slate of NFL games. We will also discuss our
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: exec decision and our Simon says, we're going to start
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: to narrow down the options for our Fave five to
• 0:30
  Speaker 1: put it into the Favorite Podcast one hundred thousand dollars Pro
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: Football Pick Them Contest this weekend. We went two and
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: three this past week. We won with the Dolphins and
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: the Vikings, losing in predictable ways with the Chiefs who
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: made it another cardiac win but didn't cover, and we
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: lost in a predictable way with the Browns who tumbled
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: the way back to our opportunities, and the Bears, who
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: we regretted. Hours before kickoff, Live from our Tommy John
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: Holmes Studios, I'm joined as always by my co host,
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: my companion, Mike cam Padre my BFF professional Better sign
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: in Hunt.
• 1:13
  Speaker 2: Hello, So I'm in Hello Chat. How are we doing?
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: Feel great? Feel motivated? Feel live, having a great day.
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: I'm really excited about our event this week will remind
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: people the details coming up. Also reminder The Favorites podcast
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: is presented by Bet three sixty five and now new
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five. Customers get one hundred and fifty
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: dollars in bonus bets when you bet five dollars, sign
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: up using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars. Place a
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: bet for five dollars to get one hundred and fifty
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: dollars in bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used
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  Speaker 1: on spreads, totals, player props, futures, and more. Whatever the moment,
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  Speaker 1: it's never ordinary. At Bet three sixty five. Must be
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  Speaker 1: twenty one or older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana,
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  Speaker 1: North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or eighteen and
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: old are in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one eight hundred
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: gambler or win in one hundred bets off in Iowa terms.
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: Condition restrictions apply. At last Simon, we do not have
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: any buys. I feel like last week, with all the
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: byes and the Thursday game being a game we loved,
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: we did not have a ton of games that we
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: could really sink our teeth into that we could agree
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: on for the final five. So we get a full
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: slate every weekend from now through the end of the year,
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: which I love. More options equals more opportunities. As we say,
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: we like optionality. Let's get to Week fifteen. First game.
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: This is the game for our Thursday night football watch party.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: Super excited to see everyone at the Wicked Wolf in Philade.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: The Rams scored this past weekend on nearly every drive
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: against a team that had just beat up on the Niners.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: We're two and a half point favorites against the Rams
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: on Thursday nights. The Rams are the Niners won impressively
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: against a bad team. Who gets more credit simon in
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: the eyes of the public, the Rams for beating the Bills,
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: the Niners for beating up on the Bears.
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: I mean, obviously it's going to be the Rams. It
• 3:35
  Speaker 2: was arguably. I mean, we didn't break it down too
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: much because I didn't want to keep driving the hot
• 3:41
  Speaker 2: needle into Matt Mitchell here. But that was like one
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: of the best games ever. And it's someone like me
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: that bet the second half of the Bills. I mean,
• 3:48
  Speaker 2: obviously that'd be nice for the win, but I didn't care.
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: I just wanted to cover and Josh Allen did something
• 3:54
  Speaker 2: we talked though we'd never seen in the history of
• 3:57
  Speaker 2: what we do. Like, I think it was the greatest
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: fantasy football day in history. He's the first quarterback ever
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: have three rushing touchdowns three passing touchdowns. It was truly
• 4:07
  Speaker 2: the most insane game ever. That we get one a
• 4:12
  Speaker 2: year or every other year, it feels like, and that
• 4:14
  Speaker 2: was one that, like, you know, in the summertime, that's
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: gonna pop up on my NFL network. I'm gonna have
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: to sit down and watch that whole game just because
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: it was that kind of a game.
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: Let me put it in context. Josh Allen is the
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: second player in NFL history with three passing touchdowns three
• 4:30
  Speaker 1: rushing touchdowns. He joined Hall of Famer Otto Graham, who
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: did it in the NFL Championship game against the Lions
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: in nineteen fifty four.
• 4:43
  Speaker 2: Well he did against plumbers and painters. Pretty impressive what
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: Josh Allen did in this current stage. And yeah, we
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: talked about that line. They opened at three. It went
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: away obviously, and this line opened at I believe three
• 4:56
  Speaker 2: for the Rams, and it went down right, It went
• 4:58
  Speaker 2: down to two when we were doing our show live
• 5:00
  Speaker 2: on Sunday, I kind of already gave it away to
• 5:04
  Speaker 2: people that no matter what, if this was gonna be
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: under three, I was gonna be on the forty nine ers.
• 5:08
  Speaker 2: It was just it's gonna be an overreaction to the Rams,
• 5:12
  Speaker 2: and it's also going to be value on this forty
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: nine ers team. Now as he here to say that,
• 5:16
  Speaker 2: I'm not, I'm not as confident as I was Sunday night,
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: because even today I just read they still don't know
• 5:21
  Speaker 2: if Trent William's gonna be back. And you know, clearly
• 5:25
  Speaker 2: that didn't matter against that Bears team, right because they
• 5:28
  Speaker 2: were we joked about they already had three hundred yards
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: when the Bears had nine yards, Like that guy.
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: I know, Simon. It was three hundred and nineteen yards
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: to four yards in the first half. The Bears had
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: five punts, five punts, four yards.
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: So on one side, we have a defense that showed
• 5:47
  Speaker 2: up for the forty nine ers. On the other side the
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: Rams offense that showed up. But we talked about this
• 5:51
  Speaker 2: Rams team, they've just struggled against the run all season
• 5:55
  Speaker 2: and that's kind of been their achilles hill all season,
• 5:57
  Speaker 2: even in that game against the Bills, they did okay
• 6:00
  Speaker 2: against the run, but overall, obviously we just talk about
• 6:02
  Speaker 2: their defense. Gave up six touchdowns to just one individual
• 6:05
  Speaker 2: and Josh Allen. So there's clearly ways this fortnit single
• 6:08
  Speaker 2: bible attack them. We've seen it before too, where they
• 6:11
  Speaker 2: just for some reason McVeigh and his team they let
• 6:14
  Speaker 2: down this spot, especially when they're on the road against
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: this forty nine ers team. So yeah, you can see
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: right now in the action app it's all the money,
• 6:21
  Speaker 2: all the tickets right now right are coming on this
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: Rams team. Not that shocking. So if you miss the two,
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: you could be patient, maybe hope it gets their game.
• 6:29
  Speaker 2: But I knew the professionals are gonna be on this
• 6:30
  Speaker 2: forty nine ers side, and that's what we're seeing right
• 6:33
  Speaker 2: this soon was just touched two, went back up to
• 6:35
  Speaker 2: two and a half. That that feels like where it's
• 6:37
  Speaker 2: going to go for the kickoff right two and a
• 6:38
  Speaker 2: half or three, depending what the book needs here. So yeah,
• 6:42
  Speaker 2: I'm excited that we have a good game for a
• 6:43
  Speaker 2: watch party because we were joking two weeks ago it's
• 6:45
  Speaker 2: like if these got these teams are banged up, this
• 6:47
  Speaker 2: might be an absolutely dud Now cut them into it.
• 6:49
  Speaker 2: Coming into this game, It's like, Wow, this is a
• 6:51
  Speaker 2: really good game that one of these teams, if they
• 6:53
  Speaker 2: lose it, their their playoff treams are pretty much done.
• 6:56
  Speaker 2: So yeah, lineup for a good one.
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: Yeah. I lean Niners, Ileana Night Home teams. I leen
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: Kyle Shanahan against Sean McVay. He's had his number multiple
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: times over the past few years, so I still like.
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: I'm with you. I like the Niners if it's under three.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: The Trent Williams thing is the one thing I was
• 7:17
  Speaker 1: trying to get intell on yesterday. I could not get
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: anything confirmed or affirmative that he would be playing, So
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: that is the one thing that that is a little
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: bit scary. Totally agree with you on that. Here's what's
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: interesting to me, Well, actually I want to get to
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: that when we get to the Eagles game. Quick reminder,
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: don't forget last reminder. Our free Favorite Podcast event is
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: this Thursday our SVP. It's an exclusive live episode performance
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: along with free drinks and good times, will be taking
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: place at the Wicked Wolf in Center City, Philadelphia. Me
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: and Simon. Evan Abrams is going to be there. Matt
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: Mitchell is going to be there. The event starts at six,
• 8:05
  Speaker 1: we'll record at seven. Everything leads into Thursday night football
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: between these rams at Niners to RSVP. Check out the
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: link in the podcast or YouTube episode description. Simon and
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: I will tweet it out as well. If you are attending,
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: check your ring boxes foreign email we'll send out with
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: more details. You will get VIP status if you're an
• 8:28
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• 8:32
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• 8:35
  Speaker 1: Free favorites, swag prizes from our buddies at Tommy John,
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: possibly a warm embrace from me. Space is limited. We'll
• 8:46
  Speaker 1: see you in Philly. Listen. It's an exclusive episode, Simon.
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: The other day, I'm on the phone with my dad
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: and he was asking about the event. You know, he's
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: in Chicago, and he's like, so, well, I listened to
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: the show after. I'm like, no, it's just for the
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: people who are there. He goes, so I can't listen
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: to it. I'm like, Dad, I'm telling you, unless you're
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: coming to Philly, you are not going to hear this.
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: And he didn't bite. So my dad will not be there.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: I might not even be able to get my older
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: son there. He's in the middle of finals Atdrexel. He's like,
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: I'll see if I can get there. That's how much
• 9:21
  Speaker 1: my family cares about what's going on.
• 9:23
  Speaker 2: Man, Chad's gonna be giving away a hugs people, I've
• 9:24
  Speaker 2: probably giving away some cash. That's the difference. We are.
• 9:27
  Speaker 2: No hugs for me, just cash.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: Which would you rather have? What is better than a
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: warm embrace? Cold cash? It doesn't last, but a nice
• 9:37
  Speaker 1: feeling to know that you're loved and seen and appreciated.
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: That Booy's confidence. That's how my parent Dallas at Carolina.
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: Carolina is minus two and a half right now, Simon, Look,
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: this is the team that I think. This team put
• 9:56
  Speaker 1: us on a downward spiral to start the year. We
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: nearly turned our listeners against us. They're finally finally consistently
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: playing like the team we expected them to be. On
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: Sunday Night, they were one point dogs to the Cowboys
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: right before we went on the show. That line flipped quickly.
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: It was one one and a half up until two
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: hours ago. Now they're two and a half point favorites.
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: You said you had this as as Carolina minus two.
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: For the record, this is the first time the Panthers
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: are favored in a game in almost exactly two years.
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: It was like mid December two years ago, twenty twenty two.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: Can you name the team they were favored against and
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: what happened? Do you have any idea.
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: In twenty twenty two?
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: December eighteen, twenty twenty two, was.
• 10:51
  Speaker 2: It at home against Derek Carr and the Saints.
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: At home against the Pittsburgh Steelers.
• 10:57
  Speaker 2: Wow?
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: Classic raw Ron Mike Road underdog Steelers went out right,
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: because that's what Mike timlines. So here's my question for
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: real though, now, like, is the value on our favorite team,
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: who we've been betting every single week the past month
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: finally gone?
• 11:20
  Speaker 2: I don't think it's gone because, like I think I
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: said on the show, either I had it two or three.
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: But like this, this number here feels right. When it opened,
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: we talked about that was way too low. Even when
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: it was one, it was still showing value on the Paranthers.
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: But the issue is we went from like last week
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: I had that number ten, so we were getting I
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: mean it closed up fourteen. That's four points of value.
• 11:40
  Speaker 2: That was really extreme. Where this at half a point,
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: it's like we'll force it in if we need to
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: because we, like we talked about, we love them, and
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: clearly they're playing as a better team right now than
• 11:51
  Speaker 2: the Cowboys in a lot of ways. And you know,
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: if this gets to three though, it's like, Okay, at
• 11:58
  Speaker 2: what point is this a by a low spot on
• 12:00
  Speaker 2: a Cowboys team that you know, if they didn't muff
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: that punt wherever that will happen. And in that game
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: of Cincinnati, they probably would have I mean, I don't
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: know about loot like winning that game, but at least
• 12:10
  Speaker 2: when I covered, they probably would have got a field
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: goal and then maybe on a last touchdown by the Bengals.
• 12:15
  Speaker 2: But still, it's like, you know, you're right, there's a
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: point where we need to sell on them, and this
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: might be it because the Lions moved so much at
• 12:23
  Speaker 2: this point. So I'm doing my best not to get
• 12:26
  Speaker 2: sucked in on it because it's like we fell a
• 12:29
  Speaker 2: little bit of attachment to this team right now because
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: you've just been so good to us and they've done
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: exactly what we thought they would be this season, which
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: is a team that can move the ball on the offense.
• 12:38
  Speaker 2: You know, now it's like you just said, it's getting
• 12:41
  Speaker 2: close to minus thraet a lot of books. Most books
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: are showing two and a half. So I'm assuming by
• 12:45
  Speaker 2: Thursday show this is at three and it fits three
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: and a half in contest. I mean, that's gonna be
• 12:50
  Speaker 2: very tempting for us to take the Cowboys.
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: I just can't believe that the rest of the sports
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: betting world has caught up to the Panthers. Fifteen weeks later,
• 13:02
  Speaker 1: they've caught up to the Panthers. Turns out we were right.
• 13:05
  Speaker 1: Fifteen weeks later, we're one hundred percent right.
• 13:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's better to be earlier than late, right, Chad.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: I guess so, except when you lose on the Panthers
• 13:16
  Speaker 1: for six straight weeks and you know, turned your entire
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: season upside down. Kansas City at Cleveland? How coincidental Cleveland
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: is a four and a half point home dog. How
• 13:27
  Speaker 1: coincidental that the two teams who burned us on Sunday
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: are playing each other. The line opened at six and
• 13:35
  Speaker 1: a half. We saw it on Sunday night, now down
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: to four and a half. We said this would happen, right,
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: We identified the game six and a half was too high.
• 13:47
  Speaker 1: Jamis is not justin Herbert. The Browns O line is
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: not the pass blocking unit that the Chargers is, but
• 13:54
  Speaker 1: I do think their pass rush is much better than
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: the Chargers. And we've now seen every every single week
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: how bad the Chiefs offensive line really is, especially their
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: edge blockers. Like it didn't matter who was in there
• 14:07
  Speaker 1: on Sunday night, DJ Humphrees or anybody else. Like the
• 14:11
  Speaker 1: Chiefs were only effective when they went to the short
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: passing game, right, that was the only time they could
• 14:16
  Speaker 1: really move the ball. And like at this point, between
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: the holding penalties, the false stars, the formation penalties, the
• 14:23
  Speaker 1: Chiefs O line is a huge liability and you can
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: see it in Patrick Mahomes's face, Like, I don't know
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: if you have different thoughts on this game than I
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: do about the Browns. But like, other than the fact
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: the line has moved two points, we've lost some value.
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: Still feels like you're taking the Browns at four and
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: a half.
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: You're not wrong, but like the same spot with last week,
• 14:45
  Speaker 2: eventually we're all going to get caught and the value
• 14:48
  Speaker 2: is going to shift the other way. And that's how
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: I felt last with a Chargers game. It's like the
• 14:51
  Speaker 2: Charger were down there number one receiver and the number
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: one running back and basically put together two drives, got
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: two touchdowns back to back, and our bet was just
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: because that's how this this this Chief's team is right
• 15:02
  Speaker 2: now that you're right, like they're they're a field goal heavy,
• 15:06
  Speaker 2: Like there's a lot of times on their drive they
• 15:08
  Speaker 2: just things fall apart because of that pressure you talked about.
• 15:11
  Speaker 2: They just have such a bad offensive line right now
• 15:13
  Speaker 2: that yeah, come playoff time. I mean, there are people
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: really gonna bet against this Chiefs team. I think everyone's
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: got the reaction from last year. But right now as
• 15:22
  Speaker 2: we sit here, I agree with you chat. It's like,
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: who are this Chief's team to get over three points against?
• 15:28
  Speaker 2: Basically anybody with a pulse? And the Cleveland Browns, as
• 15:31
  Speaker 2: bad as they've looked, they've had a pulse. I mean,
• 15:33
  Speaker 2: they've just been unlucky. It feels like these last couple
• 15:35
  Speaker 2: of weeks. So maybe we just avoid this game, like
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: take a break from betting the Browns or the Chiefs
• 15:42
  Speaker 2: just because it's yeah, it's two bad weeks in a
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: row from this Browns team, and you know the Chiefs.
• 15:50
  Speaker 2: It's on the historical run, right, like we were betting
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: a lot of stuff we're betting too. Last week it
• 15:54
  Speaker 2: was the same thing where I understood your position on
• 15:56
  Speaker 2: the Giants, like eventually the book's gonna catch up to it.
• 15:59
  Speaker 2: They not covered in seven straight games, I think up
• 16:02
  Speaker 2: till last week's point. Same with this Chiefs team. It's
• 16:05
  Speaker 2: the longest stint of Andy Read's career, seven straight no covers.
• 16:09
  Speaker 2: I saw it might have been. Evan had some crazy
• 16:11
  Speaker 2: stat about there's never been a team in the Wildcard
• 16:13
  Speaker 2: air since in the Super Bowl era that's won the
• 16:15
  Speaker 2: Super Bowl that has lost seven straight against the spread.
• 16:19
  Speaker 2: So once again, the Chiefs are going against something historical
• 16:22
  Speaker 2: we've never seen before, and it's the Mahomes factor. Though
• 16:26
  Speaker 2: it's just like even that game they were gonna not cover.
• 16:29
  Speaker 2: You knew they were gonna win, right, That's how I go.
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: So it's like, well, because when they get down to
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: four minutes and they've got the ball, yeah, they know
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: exactly how to play it, and they're playing college where
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: it's like, you know, he he was teasing a little
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: bit like they'd be better off if they scored a
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: touchdown unless they can get the clock, and I'm like,
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: they're not going to score a touchdown. They're going to
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: do exactly what they're supposed to do. They're going to
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: run the clock down, and they look Jim Harbaugh taking
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: all three timeouts before the two minute warning sort of
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: gave them that opportunity and took the cover completely off
• 17:05
  Speaker 1: the table. I knew we were going to lose that game.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: I knew it.
• 17:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, and they doinked it through. So it's that's just
• 17:12
  Speaker 2: the season that's been for this Chiefs. They're just different
• 17:14
  Speaker 2: than anything we've seen before. And yeah, you're our initial
• 17:18
  Speaker 2: read on taking the six and a half obviously was right.
• 17:20
  Speaker 2: It's a lot of books were moving to four. So
• 17:22
  Speaker 2: if you do, like Leland grabbed the four and a
• 17:24
  Speaker 2: half because I'm gonna chat, I could see this easily
• 17:26
  Speaker 2: getting down to three and a half, just because the
• 17:28
  Speaker 2: public's totally out on this team, and I think professional betters, no,
• 17:31
  Speaker 2: they don't need a rush to take this Chiefs team
• 17:33
  Speaker 2: that the snummery will keep coming down.
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: It does feel a little bit. I agree with you.
• 17:39
  Speaker 1: We've had the same feeling about the Steelers, which we'll
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: talk about with the Eagles. Right, how much can we
• 17:46
  Speaker 1: keep pressing our luck right?
• 17:48
  Speaker 2: Because it always goes the other way.
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: We know that it will. Like we talk about these
• 17:51
  Speaker 1: things they're at their best sixty two sixty three percent,
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: which means three point eight times out of ten you're
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: losing that bet. And we just haven't found the windows
• 18:06
  Speaker 1: where those bets are losing yet. And so it is
• 18:09
  Speaker 1: a little bit scary to like keep going to that
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: well again and again again, or we're doing what you
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: tell us we're always doing. We're just overthinking this shit,
• 18:19
  Speaker 1: and like it's under three, it's under three. It's it's
• 18:22
  Speaker 1: if it's over three, you bet against Mahomes. If it's
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: under three, you bet on Mahomes. Maybe maybe we're being idiots,
• 18:28
  Speaker 1: who knows, but that's that's the rule. Let's recap the
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: results of week fourteen are week thirteen. No, let's recap
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: the results of week fourteen. In the Favorites Podcast one
• 18:45
  Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollars Pro Football Pick Contest Our Week fourteen
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: first place winner d Winsenberg and unprecedented three entries went
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: five and zero and nailed the Monday night football tiebreaker.
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: But d Winsenberg submitted first, so that is the winner.
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: He or she is the winner of our maximum two
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: thousand dollars weekly prize. Incredible performance and as always, our
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: producer Matt Mitchell has selected his Producer's Cup award to
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: the entry that finished dead fucking last in the contest.
• 19:20
  Speaker 2: Have you had about the lordsome loser? He's a Louisa,
• 19:26
  Speaker 2: but he still kids on try.
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: This week's Producer Cup goes to Sean LP Curtis, who
• 19:35
  Speaker 1: went ZH to five and missed the tiebreaker by three
• 19:38
  Speaker 1: hundred and seventy five yards. Sean, please email our producer
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: at podcasts at Actionnetwork dot com to claim your prize.
• 19:48
  Speaker 1: Mammy Houston. Houston's a three and a half point favorite
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: at bet three sixty five, and we'll say the line
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: moved from two and a half to three on Sunday,
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: move back to two and a half at most books,
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: but it is still minus three at PET three six five.
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: This this was a game yesterday, Simon. I don't know
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: if you felt this when you were when you were
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: doing your film study. But as I was doing my research,
• 20:16
  Speaker 1: I kept looking for reasons to like the Texans, and like,
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: eventually I said to myself, do I like the Dolphins
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: at two and a half? And it seemed like the
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: wise guys do because they move the line from three
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: to two and a half.
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I would say the wise guys to me seem
• 20:38
  Speaker 2: like they like Miami at three and then so much
• 20:41
  Speaker 2: at two and a half. So I read your sentiment there. Yeah,
• 20:44
  Speaker 2: I'm not having a tough time this one too, because
• 20:46
  Speaker 2: I just think the Texans are just a better team.
• 20:48
  Speaker 2: I trust them more, honestly. At this point, Miami, we've
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: seen them beat up on bad teams and then kind
• 20:55
  Speaker 2: of struggle or be inconsistent against you know, good components.
• 20:59
  Speaker 2: And you know that that was the type of game
• 21:02
  Speaker 2: last week that we talked about. Like Tua, he he
• 21:06
  Speaker 2: is pretty special and we've seen this season now he's
• 21:08
  Speaker 2: had a couple of games where he's willed his team
• 21:10
  Speaker 2: to a couple of victories and you know, like a
• 21:13
  Speaker 2: game we probably have took too lightly we talked about
• 21:16
  Speaker 2: was that Bill's game. He had his team in that game,
• 21:18
  Speaker 2: a game they usually get blown out in that they
• 21:20
  Speaker 2: only lost by six. He upset this this Rams team.
• 21:23
  Speaker 2: It looks like a juggernaut and you know, again a
• 21:26
  Speaker 2: late touchdown score by him. So yeah, it's a tough one. Chat.
• 21:30
  Speaker 2: I'm with you. It's like at three, I'm seeing a
• 21:32
  Speaker 2: couple of public books right now and are still at three.
• 21:36
  Speaker 2: That seems like, that's right, Like this number feels right
• 21:38
  Speaker 2: at that number, and at that number, I would tick Miami,
• 21:40
  Speaker 2: but it's not what I'm really banged the table for
• 21:42
  Speaker 2: as we sit here right now.
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I was just surprised. Sometimes I just like the validation.
• 21:48
  Speaker 1: I'll just be honest, Like you do the work during
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: the day, you form an opinion, and all of a
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: sudden you're like, oh god, so I actually like this team. Yeah,
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: And then I saw the number move After all that,
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: I'm like, wow, maybe I do like this team. Just
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: for clarity, Like what I saw was Miami's red zone
• 22:12
  Speaker 1: offense is top ten. I was surprised it was as
• 22:15
  Speaker 1: high because I feel like, and this is just bias, right,
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: We've talked about this. The Dolphins' offense is just not
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: very physical, and so they get down in the red zone,
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: you think they're going to struggle, but it turns out
• 22:28
  Speaker 1: they don't. Maybe we just felt this way because of
• 22:31
  Speaker 1: how they played against the Jets. Red zone defense is
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: top six, and so we know Miami will be able
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: to dink in Duncan's way down the field against a
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: middling Texans defense this year. So I just sort of
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: thought I think they can move the ball and at
• 22:53
  Speaker 1: three it's probably the right side. But agree with you,
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: two and a half not the flavor for me.
• 23:00
  Speaker 2: Yeah, And I don't like.
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: The Texans at two and at like, I don't think
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: I like the Texans anymore.
• 23:05
  Speaker 2: Well, that's fair, but that's what's worrying me a little
• 23:07
  Speaker 2: bit is that maybe we've gone too far. And just
• 23:09
  Speaker 2: because I think you agree that there's just something off
• 23:11
  Speaker 2: about their offense and their offensive line right now, and
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: like that CJ just has not looked the same this year,
• 23:17
  Speaker 2: same same thing we had problem with Jordan Love, that
• 23:19
  Speaker 2: just they're they're kind of going through that year too slump, right,
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: And we've seen it this season where Jordan Love looks
• 23:26
  Speaker 2: like he's coming out the other side of it. I
• 23:28
  Speaker 2: still know where CJ is at. He just has not
• 23:30
  Speaker 2: looked in rhythm all season.
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: I just want to make sure we're both agreeing that
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: there's no value in this game, that it's not going
• 23:35
  Speaker 1: to be a game that we particularly like. I don't
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: see it moving out of this two and a half
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: to three range. And so I want to make sure
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: that you and I are clearly communicating, because I think
• 23:46
  Speaker 1: we crossed wires on the Panthers and ended up not
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: putting them in the contest when we both kind of
• 23:51
  Speaker 1: thought we should because we were waiting on a certain
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: number and that might not have been the case. Fair Simon.
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: We can hear the crackling of the ulogs, we can
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: taste the eggnog. The holiday season is upon us, and
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: with over twenty million pairsoled in thousands of five star reviews,
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• 24:29
  Speaker 1: all year long. Simon, why will you be giving the
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: gift of Tommy John this season?
• 24:36
  Speaker 2: It's the gift that lasts.
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: Shop Tommy John dot com slash favorites right now for
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  Speaker 1: the holidays and get thirty percent off site wide. Save
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: thirty percent at Tommy John dot com slash favorites Tommy
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: John dot com slash Favorites. Cincinnati is a five point
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: favorite on the road at Tennessee went from five to
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: four and a half back up to five. The Bengals
• 25:01
  Speaker 1: were lucky to escape with a win last night. There's
• 25:04
  Speaker 1: such an incomplete football team, Like you watched Joe Burrow.
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: If he can throw it to Jamar Chase, he's great,
• 25:13
  Speaker 1: and like they can't really run the ball, so they
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: don't get any play action. They can't stop the run.
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: The Cowboys slashed their way through. Since he's defense some
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: Monday night football. The problem is that Titans are bad
• 25:29
  Speaker 1: on offense in just about every category as the Bengals
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: are on defense. Bengals are thirtieth in red zone as
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: a defense, Titans offense is twenty seven. The Bengals can't
• 25:40
  Speaker 1: stop teams on third down. The Titans can't convert. Bengals
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: are thirtieth in points allowed. Titans are thirtieth in points scored,
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. You get my drift,
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: my instinct, and I don't think this is a game
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: we're gonna play. I lean Titans, so I think their
• 26:00
  Speaker 1: defense may emphasize, may be able to stop the Bengals,
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: and will let us may be able to sprout surprise
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: their creptastic defensive backfield.
• 26:15
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with everything you said. It feels like
• 26:17
  Speaker 2: this is a game where you throw out the numbers,
• 26:19
  Speaker 2: and it's simply are you here to fade the public
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: and bet with the sports books because Cincinnati Bengals will
• 26:25
  Speaker 2: be the number one t's team their money line with
• 26:27
  Speaker 2: every parlay. Everyone everyone knows they got a whale one
• 26:30
  Speaker 2: last night. Like we just talked about that. Not that
• 26:33
  Speaker 2: Dallas is out playing them. It feels like they were
• 26:35
  Speaker 2: in some in some aspects of that game. And the
• 26:37
  Speaker 2: biggest one was Joe Burrow was just getting hit after
• 26:40
  Speaker 2: hit after hit, every drop, but even after his completions,
• 26:42
  Speaker 2: he was getting rocked. And you know, the refs missing
• 26:46
  Speaker 2: brutal calls, like hits to the helmets, him getting face masks.
• 26:49
  Speaker 2: The refs were just awful last night. Let him get
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: beat up. We saw they put it on a sleeve
• 26:54
  Speaker 2: on his knee, might have been midway through the fourth quarter.
• 26:58
  Speaker 2: Like this, this man is just getting abused. And you know,
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: like you just said, this matchup, it's not the best
• 27:05
  Speaker 2: for Tennessee because of what their strength throwed defensively, but
• 27:11
  Speaker 2: you're right, like I just have such little faith right
• 27:14
  Speaker 2: now and Will Levis and this offense in Tennessee, you know,
• 27:18
  Speaker 2: they basically had a gift last week and they just
• 27:20
  Speaker 2: could not capitalize on all their opportunities against that Jaguars
• 27:23
  Speaker 2: team and they lost it because they're just a bad
• 27:25
  Speaker 2: team that feels like they're poorly coached. And yeah, this
• 27:29
  Speaker 2: is another game where it really is It's just like
• 27:32
  Speaker 2: your Giants bell last week. Chad, You're you're simply playing
• 27:34
  Speaker 2: the number, playing the laws of averages, and this number
• 27:38
  Speaker 2: should be three, three and a half, like you just said,
• 27:40
  Speaker 2: it's five and most books, yes there's value there are
• 27:44
  Speaker 2: we really going to force this one in because we
• 27:46
  Speaker 2: have been betting ugly dogs and like we talked about,
• 27:48
  Speaker 2: we've just been getting burned this year by ugly dogs
• 27:51
  Speaker 2: and against superior teams. Are is this really superior team?
• 27:57
  Speaker 2: And the Sense team, like I feel like get nailed
• 27:58
  Speaker 2: to just say how they got lucky. So it's a
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: tough one. Chat Like, I really want to take it,
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: but I'm having a lot of reservations here just because
• 28:04
  Speaker 2: it is Will love us and he's just burned us
• 28:08
  Speaker 2: so many times this year.
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: I feel like the worm has turned a little bit
• 28:12
  Speaker 1: for us the past few weeks. In betting the ugly dogs.
• 28:16
  Speaker 2: We only bet two dogs. Last week we went oh
• 28:17
  Speaker 2: and two.
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but but in the week before that. Definitely.
• 28:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm just saying we've with Justin, we've been be
• 28:25
  Speaker 2: many more favorites and that's the only thing covering for us.
• 28:27
  Speaker 2: He's fucking dogs, man, I've just been killing us.
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: Isn't that insane? Why do I feel like things have
• 28:33
  Speaker 1: been going better for us?
• 28:34
  Speaker 2: I know we've had winning weeks, but like that last
• 28:36
  Speaker 2: week was just the is the typical? Is like our
• 28:38
  Speaker 2: stupid favorites came through and our dogs we love were
• 28:41
  Speaker 2: just dead dead on arrival.
• 28:45
  Speaker 1: Browns were never dead. Browns were never dead. That my god, James,
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: You're always in it, which might bring us right back
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: to betting. Jamis plus four and a half against the
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: Kansas City Chiefs. I don't know, there's a part of
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: me that is feeling confident esque on the Titans.
• 29:06
  Speaker 2: Because you know it's the spot where you're supposed to hit.
• 29:07
  Speaker 2: So yeah, maybe Thursday all will have more confidence. But
• 29:09
  Speaker 2: it's here right now. This is I don't know if
• 29:11
  Speaker 2: you're making exact but I'm not making a sign and says,
• 29:13
  Speaker 2: oh god.
• 29:14
  Speaker 1: No, not even close. Also at risk of Matt Mitchell
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: grinching me, just being an asshole if I choose a
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: team that I feel really strongly about that. He thinks
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: people are gonna hate. Look, but I do think you
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: bet on the Saints here, like the it's like it was,
• 29:30
  Speaker 1: it's seven and a half. Yeah, it's moved to seven.
• 29:33
  Speaker 1: It's clearly a wise guy could be you, for all
• 29:36
  Speaker 1: I know, No Saints.
• 29:38
  Speaker 2: I'm on Washington. Surprisingly.
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: Wow, So Derek Carr has a concussion where a fracture
• 29:43
  Speaker 1: of risk are both Yah, Taysom Hill is out. Yes,
• 29:46
  Speaker 1: that is their whole offense. Yes, there is one trend
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: sort of fading the team that is covering by five
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: points or more. When you do that, you win at
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: a fifty six percent clip. That's what you can do
• 30:01
  Speaker 1: against the Commanders. There's one other game that fits that
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: this week. But I actually I don't have a strong
• 30:08
  Speaker 1: opinion on this game. I'm curious to hear why you
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: why you feel strongly about the Commanders.
• 30:12
  Speaker 2: Uh, it's honestly just because how they performed against bad
• 30:15
  Speaker 2: teams this season. They're a team we talk all the time.
• 30:18
  Speaker 2: There's certain teams that you know that just their offense,
• 30:22
  Speaker 2: the way they are, they just roll teams once they
• 30:24
  Speaker 2: get rolling, right. The Commanders feel like that team that
• 30:26
  Speaker 2: you know, they had a brutal stretch there. You know,
• 30:30
  Speaker 2: he was banged up. They got really lucky on that
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: failed Mary or Hail Miller should say. But you know,
• 30:36
  Speaker 2: they played the Giants, I think they covered by five,
• 30:38
  Speaker 2: and then they had a run of Pittsburgh, Philadelphia, Dallas,
• 30:42
  Speaker 2: and then they just smoked that Tennessee team. Right Like
• 30:45
  Speaker 2: when we look at the score, it was yeah, forty
• 30:47
  Speaker 2: two to nineteen when they played Tennessee. Now they went
• 30:49
  Speaker 2: in a bye week, So I'm with you that, Like
• 30:52
  Speaker 2: if this was a couple of weeks ago when I
• 30:54
  Speaker 2: still had worries about Jane Daniels being healthy and there's
• 30:58
  Speaker 2: you know a lot of the stuff we talk just
• 31:01
  Speaker 2: the regression we expected from that offense. We've seen now though,
• 31:05
  Speaker 2: when they can run the ball and get things moving
• 31:07
  Speaker 2: and they're healthy, they're just a really high powered offense.
• 31:09
  Speaker 2: So yeah, this could be the game where I'm you know,
• 31:12
  Speaker 2: walking into it and somehow New Orleans defense does step
• 31:15
  Speaker 2: up here. But I think you're in Agreeans. If they
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: put up twenty one and it's midway through the third quarter,
• 31:20
  Speaker 2: I just can't see a world where Desmond Ridder Whoever's
• 31:23
  Speaker 2: quarterback for the Saints can come back from being down,
• 31:25
  Speaker 2: let alone seven points, ten points or anything like that.
• 31:28
  Speaker 2: So yeah, just it feels like a type of game
• 31:31
  Speaker 2: where they just Washington rolls. And that's why they did
• 31:34
  Speaker 2: give us the seven and a half because they're just like, someone,
• 31:36
  Speaker 2: please come and bet the Saints team. We need this money.
• 31:38
  Speaker 2: So it makes sense they'd move it now it's back down.
• 31:41
  Speaker 2: Like you said, the professionals bet it. It's it's a game.
• 31:44
  Speaker 2: I'm happy to sit out.
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: I think you're confusing Spencer Rattler for Desmond Ridder. We
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: do have a huge Desmond Ridder spot.
• 31:53
  Speaker 2: Oh yes, yes, yes, yes, this week.
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: However, I think it's gonna be in a former team.
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: You're right, Jay Hayner for the Saints who came in
• 31:59
  Speaker 1: last week when when Derek Carr was hurt, and he's
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: the guy who replaced Spencer Rattler when early in the
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: season when he was terrible. Yeah, I don't. I can't
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: argue with anything you're saying, other than you play the
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: bad team getting seven at home against the team that
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: is going to be such a huge that. I mean,
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: it's it's the chalky. It might be the chalkiest play
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: on the board when we get down to it.
• 32:29
  Speaker 2: I had to look at Spot. They a Philly on
• 32:30
  Speaker 2: deck next week. Like I I'm telling you, the old
• 32:33
  Speaker 2: school guys, they're going to hit this like you're saying, well,
• 32:35
  Speaker 2: it's New Orleans, Spot.
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: I'm just school though. You know what you are. You're
• 32:40
  Speaker 1: a new school You're a modern age gambler. You can
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: make adjustments. You don't. You don't have to be beholden
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: to old school trends. That's not how you roll, Simon.
• 32:53
  Speaker 2: You're your own man now. I mean, obviously we never
• 32:56
  Speaker 2: get two world news here, but I'm feeling pretty good
• 32:59
  Speaker 2: at my lene. At least my generation didn't try to
• 33:02
  Speaker 2: assassinate or president and had a hitman take out a
• 33:04
  Speaker 2: CEO of a health company. So millennials are doing good.
• 33:06
  Speaker 2: Gen Z on the other side, what the fuck is
• 33:09
  Speaker 2: going on with gen Z Jets?
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: Jesus Christ, Simon. I guess my point is this feels
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: like this feels like a spot to play the Saints
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: New York Jets at Jacksonville. Jacksonville plus three and a half.
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: You know what, The streak is over? The Jets were
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: dogs this past week. Finally they're back to be in favorites.
• 33:35
  Speaker 1: Thank god, the world has come back to its senses.
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: It's spinning on its axis one more time. How do
• 33:45
  Speaker 1: we handicap this game? Interim coach versus a lame duck coach,
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: backup QB versus an over the hill QB one QB
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: who won a game he should have lost and Mac
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: Jones one QB he lost a game he should have won.
• 34:01
  Speaker 1: In Ann Rogers, the numbers going up went from three
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: to three and a half. Like somebody likes the Jets
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: in this spot.
• 34:10
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's the same group of professionals that have liked
• 34:13
  Speaker 2: them every week, and once again they're moving the number
• 34:15
  Speaker 2: for us, and they're giving us value. Like I would
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: have been right there with I probably would have passed
• 34:19
  Speaker 2: on this the Jaguars coming off a win. But are
• 34:21
  Speaker 2: we seeing a little pattern here with Mac Jones a
• 34:23
  Speaker 2: three and a half?
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: Yep?
• 34:25
  Speaker 2: Like should we not overthinking and just take the three
• 34:27
  Speaker 2: and a half when they're When Mac Jones is playing
• 34:29
  Speaker 2: against a bad team, it seems like he's gonna keep
• 34:32
  Speaker 2: us in it. Whether you know that Tennessee game, like
• 34:35
  Speaker 2: they just did absolutely nothing for three quarters, they scored
• 34:38
  Speaker 2: ten ten points in the fourth quarter and they won
• 34:40
  Speaker 2: that game outright, which is just crazy. I think no
• 34:43
  Speaker 2: points the entire game, Then the fourth quarter they scored
• 34:45
  Speaker 2: ten points. You know, maybe am I overacting too much
• 34:48
  Speaker 2: for a divisional game? Could be that's fair, But the Jets,
• 34:55
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Even when we were losing Chad, like
• 34:57
  Speaker 2: we talked about last week, I never felt in doubt.
• 35:00
  Speaker 2: I felt like the Jets were gonna Jets eventually. So
• 35:04
  Speaker 2: we'll bet this. Maybe we'll get slapped in the face
• 35:06
  Speaker 2: and I might force us to put this in the
• 35:07
  Speaker 2: contest at three and a half, But it's like we're
• 35:09
  Speaker 2: getting a good number once again against an overvalued Jets
• 35:13
  Speaker 2: team that they're in the same exact spizes as Jaguars team. Like,
• 35:17
  Speaker 2: at least we've seen the Jaguars team playing hard. This
• 35:20
  Speaker 2: Jets team's coming off you can't have a more deflating loss,
• 35:23
  Speaker 2: and now they're on you know, they're coming back home
• 35:26
  Speaker 2: for this game where it's like I just can't even
• 35:28
  Speaker 2: imagine the fans. The only thing that's gonna hesitation. Evan
• 35:30
  Speaker 2: had those amazing stats, but how much better Rogers has
• 35:33
  Speaker 2: been at home than on the road, And that's coming
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: off his best road game of the season, Like it
• 35:39
  Speaker 2: was very bizarre. So yeah, I'm i'm I'm I'm happy
• 35:44
  Speaker 2: to take the Jags of three and a half, but
• 35:45
  Speaker 2: if this was two and a half in contest, I
• 35:47
  Speaker 2: just avoid.
• 35:47
  Speaker 1: This one hold on one sec because I want to
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: make sure isn't this game in the game is in Jacksonville.
• 35:55
  Speaker 2: Yes, yeah, sorry, sorry, that's what I meant. Though they're
• 35:57
  Speaker 2: back to back road games. It's just I feel like
• 35:58
  Speaker 2: a brutal spot for this Jets team.
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and also, you know what, they're a bad team,
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: Like like we're gonna talk about this. I don't think
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: there's two teams getting more attention for being bad teams
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: this year than the Jets and the Bears. And it's
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: stunning to me that these wise guys, whoever they are,
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: that can be your your assignment, simon. Find out who
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: the freaking the syndicate is better you.
• 36:26
  Speaker 2: And they're on it. Though they hit the six and
• 36:28
  Speaker 2: a half last week on the Jets literally.
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: Later the first time, I know, But every other week.
• 36:33
  Speaker 2: They're fucking dancing in the book now because they were like, see,
• 36:36
  Speaker 2: I knew it would come around evention. It's like, yeah,
• 36:38
  Speaker 2: that's why I said though, they were just going to
• 36:39
  Speaker 2: keep hitting black until it hit fucking black, and it
• 36:42
  Speaker 2: did hit it. They're coming back for more. That's the
• 36:45
  Speaker 2: craziest part.
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: To me.
• 36:46
  Speaker 2: It's like you got away with one, just walk away,
• 36:48
  Speaker 2: and they're they're being the opposite. So I, like I said,
• 36:51
  Speaker 2: though I get why they would bet at two and
• 36:53
  Speaker 2: a half, I don't really get the bet at three.
• 36:55
  Speaker 2: To me, the three was the value on the Jags.
• 36:57
  Speaker 2: Now three and a half, that's a ton of value
• 36:58
  Speaker 2: on the Jags, especial across that key number.
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: Baltimore at the New York Giants. The New York Giants
• 37:03
  Speaker 1: are now fifteen point underdogs. Crazy the Ravens coming off
• 37:09
  Speaker 1: the bye I will tell you that. Yesterday afternoon after
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: Sincey Tennessee, Washington, New Orleans, Jets and Jaguars. I actually
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: was thinking to myself, I would just love it if
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: all of these teams had to buy, like you didn't
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: have to research them talk about them. Fifteen points in
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: the NFL is to me the equivalent of twenty five
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: or thirty points in college football. Like that's that's how
• 37:42
  Speaker 1: big it is. It's rare. Maybe Evan can figure this
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: out while we're on the call and you can throw
• 37:47
  Speaker 1: it in the chat, like, how many times has there
• 37:51
  Speaker 1: been in fifteen point favorite in the past fifteen years?
• 37:56
  Speaker 1: You know it's going to be the Patriots a bunch
• 37:57
  Speaker 1: of times against the Dolphins that the mid twenty tens.
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: But this is what happens when Drew Lock startsh to eight,
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: goes twenty one to forty nine, completes forty three percent
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: of his passes, and even most of those come like
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: in the final two drives when the Giants are on
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: their way to winning, maybe at least covering as as
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: one of us expected them to do. What is your
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: true power rating for this game?
• 38:28
  Speaker 2: It's right like I had it at fourteen and a
• 38:30
  Speaker 2: half there to bump up to fifteen now, is that
• 38:33
  Speaker 2: makes sense to me? Like if the books move this
• 38:35
  Speaker 2: up to seventeen, I would still be tempted, honestly take
• 38:38
  Speaker 2: the Ravens just because what you just talk about, Drew
• 38:41
  Speaker 2: Lock is maybe one of the worst quarterbacks I've watched,
• 38:45
  Speaker 2: and we've seen a lot of bad quarterback play. I mean,
• 38:47
  Speaker 2: at one point he had started that game, I think
• 38:48
  Speaker 2: oh for nine or like oh for ten against.
• 38:50
  Speaker 1: The so for eight he started oh for eight.
• 38:52
  Speaker 2: Over eight, Yes, So oh man, this is just a
• 38:58
  Speaker 2: Ravens team that we think are pretty good coming off
• 39:00
  Speaker 2: a bye week after a really bad loss to Philadelphia,
• 39:03
  Speaker 2: like you would expect Lamar to put up his classic
• 39:07
  Speaker 2: four touches, Like I can already see Stucky being like
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: Ravens first half, take that number, whatever the line is,
• 39:12
  Speaker 2: because that's just that's this kind of spot for this
• 39:15
  Speaker 2: Ravens team to come out and just whoop this team.
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: You know, they haven't had too many blowouts this year, right,
• 39:21
  Speaker 2: that could be the hesitation that, like, you know, maybe
• 39:25
  Speaker 2: we're overrating this Ravens team. They're not the Ravens team
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: of the pass that would just roll and blow out
• 39:31
  Speaker 2: these teams.
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: But they can't. They can't stop the pass. That's kind
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: of my fear on this is the Giants are down
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: three touchdowns and there's two minutes left in the game
• 39:44
  Speaker 1: and Drew Locke just starts fearlessly uncirking, and instead of
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: all those balls going in complete or being intercepted, four
• 39:52
  Speaker 1: of them are caught and they score with thirty seconds left,
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: and yeah, bang open the back door because the Lion
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: the Ravens defense is just so bad against the pass,
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: like truly terrible, one of the worst in the league.
• 40:06
  Speaker 1: So that's like the fear here.
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree with that. That's what I was gonna say, Like,
• 40:11
  Speaker 2: we've only really seen it because they've had a really
• 40:12
  Speaker 2: hard schedule, and if you look at the Ravens schedule
• 40:14
  Speaker 2: is the reason I like they're under but they're probably
• 40:16
  Speaker 2: gonna end up hitting this over. They're probably gonna get
• 40:19
  Speaker 2: the overturn and a half, but just gonna look at
• 40:21
  Speaker 2: their schedule, I thought, man, this is a really tough
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: schedule we've seen this year that I mean, their only
• 40:25
  Speaker 2: really blow out wind shed is against Denver. They beat
• 40:27
  Speaker 2: them like forty one to nine or forty one to ten,
• 40:30
  Speaker 2: and that was a game we talked about like they
• 40:32
  Speaker 2: were going for on fourth downs and they just didn't
• 40:34
  Speaker 2: bounced their way for Denver and bon Nicks right, that
• 40:36
  Speaker 2: probably would have been a little closer if some things
• 40:38
  Speaker 2: had come through. But it's like this, this is we've
• 40:42
  Speaker 2: seen now that the Ravens can't blow out certain teams
• 40:45
  Speaker 2: in certain matchups. So for us, I don't know if
• 40:48
  Speaker 2: it's going to make our contest because we've we've played big,
• 40:51
  Speaker 2: big lines like this. But it was literally Detroit at
• 40:54
  Speaker 2: home against inferior teams when they were Detroit was healthy,
• 40:57
  Speaker 2: like Detroit's the class of the class ball right now,
• 41:00
  Speaker 2: we don't really have that same view of this team.
• 41:03
  Speaker 2: And I agree with your statement of that's the fear
• 41:05
  Speaker 2: is the back door. So it's a type of bed
• 41:08
  Speaker 2: that if you make, you're gonna need them to be
• 41:09
  Speaker 2: build twenty eight points head into the fourth quarter this
• 41:11
  Speaker 2: range this team, and if not, you're going to be
• 41:13
  Speaker 2: sweating this bet to the very end.
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: Fifteen plus point favorites. This is how good Evan Abrams
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: is and everyone should tell him that. When we're at
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: the Weekend Wolf on Thursday night, everyone tells Evan he's amazing.
• 41:27
  Speaker 1: Everyone asks Matt Mitchell why he's a grnch. Don't forget.
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: Those are the two assignments. Twenty twenty three, it happened
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: four times, fifteen point favorites were two and two against
• 41:36
  Speaker 1: the spread. Twenty twenty two, it happened three times, the favorites
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: were zero to three. Twenty one it happened seven times, wow,
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: eight times, and the favorites were four to three and one.
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: This is the first time there was a fifteen plus
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: point favorite on the road since twenty twenty one. That
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: was the Buffalo Bills who lost the game against Jacksonville,
• 42:04
  Speaker 1: So you know we got that as a reference point.
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: I will say when I do the some of the
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: research on Mondays, I'll go to NFL Next Gen Stats,
• 42:14
  Speaker 1: which anybody can go to NFL dot com. You just
• 42:16
  Speaker 1: got to pay like seventy five bucks and get access
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: for everything. They will list twenty four different head to
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: head metrics for offense and defense, rushing and passing when
• 42:27
  Speaker 1: teams play each other. Of the twenty four listed the Ravens,
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: and then they sort of grade it. Is it like
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: a five star advantage, meaning it's overwhelmingly in favor of
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: one unit versus the other, or a one star where
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: it's a slight favorite. Between a one star and five
• 42:47
  Speaker 1: star advantage. The Ravens had it for every single category
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: except for one intermediate passing. The Giants are nineteenth, the
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: Ravens twenty nine. So I know, like the Giants is
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: with multiple quarterbacks. But that's what made me think Giants
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: are gonna be down, dink and dunk fifteen twenty yards
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: down the field and they score a touchdown, because that's
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: the one thing the Ravens are worse at. Yeah, irrational fear.
• 43:19
  Speaker 1: Simon Simon says, we own exec decision.
• 43:22
  Speaker 2: I have two.
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: I really like all right, well I got I got two.
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: I really like two. Pittsburgh at Philadelphia. Philadelphia is minus five.
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: This one's taking a jump like it went from four
• 43:33
  Speaker 1: and a half on Sunday night to five and a
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: half most places. It came back down to four and
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: a half nearly everywhere except that three sixty five. So
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: look around, get the five if you like the Steelers.
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: Look the Eagles had made some noise the past twenty
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: four hours. Brendan Graham. I don't know if you saw
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: this on WIP. I did Philadelphia, but he came out
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: and basically said, Jalen Hurst and AJ Brown aren't friends anymore.
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: Jalen Hurts, who is AJ Brown's kids godfather? There was
• 44:07
  Speaker 1: a lot of noise after that game, right, Jalen Hurts
• 44:11
  Speaker 1: through for one hundred and eight yards. He has the
• 44:13
  Speaker 1: fewest passing attempts of any quarterback starting quarterback in the
• 44:18
  Speaker 1: league this year. Yes, AJ Brown, point blank, what's going
• 44:22
  Speaker 1: on with the offense? He just said one word after
• 44:24
  Speaker 1: the game, passing throwing his helmet on the field or
• 44:28
  Speaker 1: on the sideline. DeVante Smith saying we're not on the
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: same page. Something going on with his offense, like as
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: good as Saquon is, Jalen struggling, And that's been a
• 44:39
  Speaker 1: theme for two years now.
• 44:41
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I was. I forgot to bring it up because
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: I had an amazing stat for someone like you that's
• 44:46
  Speaker 2: just been hating on Hurts. You have him in your
• 44:48
  Speaker 2: top ten coming to the season. You've been bad mouthing
• 44:50
  Speaker 2: this season. Before this weekend, him and Josh Allen had
• 44:54
  Speaker 2: literally these same exact stats for total touchdowns, for turnovers,
• 44:58
  Speaker 2: for yards rushing and passing combined. Their stats were literally
• 45:01
  Speaker 2: the exact same. So on one hand, Josh Josh Allen's
• 45:04
  Speaker 2: the greatest if you ever have the greatest season ever,
• 45:06
  Speaker 2: And here's Chad just shooting on Hurtz who's having literally
• 45:09
  Speaker 2: the mirror season until this past weekend. Obviously, Josh has
• 45:12
  Speaker 2: pulled ahead now with this.
• 45:13
  Speaker 1: Is that true?
• 45:14
  Speaker 2: Yeah? It was because because Hurts has the cheat code
• 45:17
  Speaker 2: of the twelve rushing touchdowns for the Tousch push, and
• 45:19
  Speaker 2: now he's even more because they just did it again
• 45:21
  Speaker 2: this past week. But Josh Allen's doing the touch push.
• 45:24
  Speaker 2: Didn't hear much people shooting on him about it. Getting
• 45:27
  Speaker 2: touch pushed into the end zone. Uh yeah, I think
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: you know AJ is a diva, Like I knew a
• 45:33
  Speaker 2: j was a diva coming in the Brandon Grant things
• 45:35
  Speaker 2: spooky because it's like he didn't say they weren't fends.
• 45:38
  Speaker 2: He's basically saying Jalen Hurts is like trying to make
• 45:41
  Speaker 2: things work, and AJ is basically saying fuck off, Like
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: I don't even talk to you right now, which is
• 45:46
  Speaker 2: like terrifying, Like I agree with you. That's that's that's
• 45:49
  Speaker 2: not what I want to hear. But it's like, dude,
• 45:52
  Speaker 2: your your team is the two seed. You haven't lost
• 45:56
  Speaker 2: in seven eight weeks. Like it just sucks that people
• 45:59
  Speaker 2: have this person eyes where it's never good enough, you know,
• 46:02
  Speaker 2: like keep it in the house, just keep your mouth shut.
• 46:05
  Speaker 2: He didn't need to make that sound bite to get
• 46:06
  Speaker 2: everyone going crazy like this, but hopefully that worked through it.
• 46:10
  Speaker 2: But like, you know, AJ's in a weird spot where
• 46:15
  Speaker 2: I get he went. I guess he wants the ball.
• 46:16
  Speaker 2: But the Eagles are our run first team. They have
• 46:19
  Speaker 2: the best weapon of football right now in Saquon, So
• 46:21
  Speaker 2: it's like if Hurts goes out there, they throw for
• 46:24
  Speaker 2: three hundred yards and four touchdowns against the Carolina Panthers
• 46:27
  Speaker 2: and we lose. Is that a good thing? Is because
• 46:30
  Speaker 2: Aj is now happy because he got one fifty and
• 46:32
  Speaker 2: two touchdowns and a loss. It's like, I feel bad
• 46:36
  Speaker 2: for he doesn't really understand that they're like he because
• 46:38
  Speaker 2: I don't know if it was last year year before
• 46:39
  Speaker 2: he had this crazy year with all these touchdowns and
• 46:41
  Speaker 2: a ton of receiving. Yeah, and that was really fun.
• 46:43
  Speaker 2: But it's like we saw that last year that could
• 46:46
  Speaker 2: that didn't work once it got cold out, And like
• 46:48
  Speaker 2: you just said, Jalen Hurts, I'm with you. I agree
• 46:50
  Speaker 2: with you. He is not consistent that that is a
• 46:52
  Speaker 2: weakness of his where he's got a couple of quarterbacks
• 46:55
  Speaker 2: in this league that they need to see a couple
• 46:57
  Speaker 2: of three four catches in a row to find a them.
• 47:00
  Speaker 2: If they don't get those three four in a row,
• 47:02
  Speaker 2: he'll put up what he does did this past week
• 47:04
  Speaker 2: whatever it was eleven of nineteen, Like he'll just never
• 47:06
  Speaker 2: get in a rhythm really passing wise, and the new
• 47:09
  Speaker 2: personality of this Eagles team have just been a run
• 47:11
  Speaker 2: for his team has not helped that. So I do
• 47:13
  Speaker 2: agree with that, but in this matchup, I mean this number,
• 47:18
  Speaker 2: Like we we talked about, it's so telling that who's
• 47:22
  Speaker 2: betting the Eagles. I don't get it. That's why I'll
• 47:24
  Speaker 2: never understand this number shown me all bet Pittsburgh and
• 47:26
  Speaker 2: then just let this fall where in May it's like
• 47:29
  Speaker 2: Pittsburgh earned that respect. And you know, we talked on Sunday,
• 47:33
  Speaker 2: I was a little worried about the number because it's like,
• 47:35
  Speaker 2: what's going with Pickens. Now We've had Tomlin sound by
• 47:38
  Speaker 2: saying he's probably not gonna play. He said, it's really
• 47:40
  Speaker 2: doubtful that Pickens plays in this game. You know that
• 47:45
  Speaker 2: that that's a big deal, Like that is a big
• 47:48
  Speaker 2: deal against an Eagles defense that is legit, like obviously
• 47:52
  Speaker 2: they're cryptonite is other white guys. Adam Feeling tore them
• 47:55
  Speaker 2: up last week, But overall this has been a really
• 47:59
  Speaker 2: stingy defense. And even against that Ravensteam, we saw they
• 48:03
  Speaker 2: can make stops when they need to in big time spots.
• 48:06
  Speaker 2: So yeah, it's it's a game right on with the
• 48:09
  Speaker 2: du chat. I really want to take Pittsburgh. I just
• 48:12
  Speaker 2: am worried whor I'm missing something here that maybe I'm
• 48:14
  Speaker 2: over value in Pittsburgh and this is the right time
• 48:15
  Speaker 2: to jump off, But why is this number not three
• 48:18
  Speaker 2: three and a half. That's my biggest issue in me.
• 48:20
  Speaker 2: It's like even my model thinks this is two overvalued,
• 48:22
  Speaker 2: so even the human element take it out of it.
• 48:24
  Speaker 2: It's like, okay, we're supposed to take Pittsburgh here.
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: Mike Tomlin as a road dog of between four and
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: six points nearly sixty five percent against the spread. He's
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: basically north of sixty percent in every category breakdown as
• 48:42
  Speaker 1: a dog, Like I know, we're always looking to thread
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: the needle on these things and pick the spot where
• 48:50
  Speaker 1: we think it's going to work. We did it with
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs.
• 48:54
  Speaker 2: You know, this line's fishy, though.
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: It's totally fishy because so fishy, it's it's completely fishy.
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: I worry that that the Eagles will react to this
• 49:07
  Speaker 1: week's drama and come out better than ever.
• 49:10
  Speaker 2: Oh yeah, that was a loss, that Carolina game. That
• 49:13
  Speaker 2: that feels like a loss in that locker room, right.
• 49:15
  Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, one hundred percent. They didn't. They are not
• 49:17
  Speaker 1: walking out of that game thinking, yeah, we've won nine
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: in a row, there's still the two seed, and we've
• 49:24
  Speaker 1: got the best running back in football. They're not thinking that,
• 49:31
  Speaker 1: but they continue to have a dominant defensive line and
• 49:34
  Speaker 1: their offensive line is really good. It's why Saquon is
• 49:38
  Speaker 1: second to Josh Allen in the MVP odds. And look,
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: you could argue you can if not for the fact
• 49:44
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen is a quarterback and doing it in dramatic
• 49:47
  Speaker 1: fashion in some really high profile moments. Saquon the odds
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: should be much closer. Josh Allen is like minus four hundred.
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: Saquon is plus four hundred. It should be more like
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: minus one hundred, you know, plus two hundred. Because Saquon
• 50:05
  Speaker 1: is leading a team that is number two in the conference,
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: that has a better record, and he's on track to
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: break one of the most sacred records in all of football,
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: which is the total rushing yardage record in a season.
• 50:18
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen's team has three losses, right, and he's on
• 50:24
  Speaker 1: track to do miraculous things. But how many records is
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: he going to break? He's just going to be a
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: spectacular quarterback who's leading a team that has a really
• 50:31
  Speaker 1: good record. I mean, I don't know, I have a
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: Saquon bias. I love the guy. I think he's so
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: fun to watch, love his attitude, I love his athleticism.
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: I think what he's doing this year is spectacular. I
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: love the fact that he's sticking it to the Giants.
• 50:50
  Speaker 1: But I feel like I got a bit on Tomlin. Yeah,
• 50:55
  Speaker 1: there's just no reason not to.
• 50:57
  Speaker 2: I know, I hate it because it just feels way
• 50:59
  Speaker 2: too easy. But again, it was easy. It has been winning.
• 51:02
  Speaker 2: Like last week the Chargers felt really way too easy,
• 51:04
  Speaker 2: and that's what was spooking me on that number as well.
• 51:05
  Speaker 2: And every idiot in the world's like, well, this is
• 51:08
  Speaker 2: the spy you take them. It's it's over a field goal.
• 51:11
  Speaker 2: You take the Chargers over a field goal against the Chiefs.
• 51:13
  Speaker 2: The same thing with Pittsburgh. It's like everyone, I'm talking
• 51:15
  Speaker 2: even the book yesterday, this fucking guy at the window
• 51:18
  Speaker 2: goes Pittsburgh easy spend of the week. There's no way
• 51:21
  Speaker 2: that Tomlin, no way loses by three. And it's like, fuck, man,
• 51:23
  Speaker 2: I'm making that same bet. God damn it.
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: I know this. This was my second choice for executive
• 51:30
  Speaker 1: decision the Steelers. Yeah, but I'm pulling back. If you
• 51:34
  Speaker 1: and I end up having the same game, if it's
• 51:37
  Speaker 1: different sides, that just might make it more interesting. But
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: let's just let's just see Indianapolis at Denver. Like we
• 51:43
  Speaker 1: talked about this on Sunday night, just eyeballing it. My
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: first instinct was I liked Indy right now, India is
• 51:49
  Speaker 1: a very public dog majority of the tickets. Uh, there
• 51:53
  Speaker 1: is that same trend that backs the Saints, backs the
• 51:58
  Speaker 1: Colts here Denver's team that has been consistently covering by
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: an average of more than five points per game. When
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: that is happening, you back the underdog. They covered a
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: fifty six percent clip. But I don't have a strong
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: opinion about it. I don't know if you've developed anything
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: over the past few days. I can't my way in.
• 52:17
  Speaker 2: I did. I hit the Colts and it was more like, okay,
• 52:20
  Speaker 2: these these feel like two teams that are fringe playoff teams,
• 52:23
  Speaker 2: and this is the right matchup that this number should
• 52:25
  Speaker 2: not be five, and we've seen it now come down
• 52:27
  Speaker 2: to four and a half for in a lot of books,
• 52:29
  Speaker 2: three and a half three is another. This game feels
• 52:31
  Speaker 2: like it should be three and a half three. So
• 52:32
  Speaker 2: I do see it settling down there because I just
• 52:34
  Speaker 2: think more professional money will come in on this Colts team.
• 52:36
  Speaker 2: But I'm shocked that you said that early here that
• 52:39
  Speaker 2: people are backing this Colts team just because I thought
• 52:42
  Speaker 2: everyone just be so in love that bo Nick, especially
• 52:44
  Speaker 2: you know, he got to cover for them against that
• 52:47
  Speaker 2: Cleveland team before he hadding to the bye week. So
• 52:50
  Speaker 2: maybe it's maybe the early money is just professional money
• 52:52
  Speaker 2: because I don't know why Joe Publrick's coming on this,
• 52:54
  Speaker 2: right there's other games I see, like the public coming on. Yeah,
• 52:57
  Speaker 2: yeah for sure, Yeah, I like the Colts. I'd take
• 53:00
  Speaker 2: it down to three and a half. So if you
• 53:02
  Speaker 2: can still get four and a half for four, that
• 53:04
  Speaker 2: that to me is good value right.
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: Now, all right, here we go. I don't know if
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: this is your game, but it's my da Now, okay,
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: Buffalo at Detroit.
• 53:15
  Speaker 2: How about how about a little kick ass on three?
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: One two three. Detroit is now a one and a
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: half point favorite. It's come down from two and a
• 53:27
  Speaker 1: half down two down to one and a half in
• 53:31
  Speaker 1: some spots. This is a very public dog play. Looking
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: at the current number, seventy percent of the tickets are
• 53:39
  Speaker 1: on Buffalo, forty one percent of the money is on Detroit.
• 53:43
  Speaker 1: So if you think about it, if seventy percent of
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: the tickets are on Buffalo and thirty percent are on
• 53:52
  Speaker 1: Detroit forty one percent of the money slightly more lean
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: from a professional point of view on Detroit. Even though
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: this number has been coming down, I'm making the lines
• 54:07
  Speaker 1: of my exact decision.
• 54:08
  Speaker 2: Wow, the choice between the unthinkable and the impossible? Are
• 54:15
  Speaker 2: you your own executive decision. I'll support it just because
• 54:21
  Speaker 2: the line movement, But I mean it was up to
• 54:23
  Speaker 2: three Sunday night. I said that was way too much.
• 54:26
  Speaker 2: That you're in close three on a Josh Allen that
• 54:29
  Speaker 2: he will keep you in and no matter of what,
• 54:30
  Speaker 2: he will backdoor that number because that was too much.
• 54:32
  Speaker 2: You're right though the movement public reception. Lions are the
• 54:38
  Speaker 2: better team on their on extended rest here, and they
• 54:42
  Speaker 2: didn't just go through an absolute track meet and they're
• 54:45
  Speaker 2: not on back to back road game. So it feels
• 54:47
  Speaker 2: like a lot of things are working against this Bills
• 54:48
  Speaker 2: team and this was just a brutal stretch. Now you
• 54:52
  Speaker 2: are getting incredibly desperate. Josh Allen that this has tended
• 54:56
  Speaker 2: to be a good spot to back him after a
• 54:57
  Speaker 2: loss playing against a team that I don't want to
• 55:02
  Speaker 2: say they overlook that Rams game. But Josh Allen just
• 55:05
  Speaker 2: wasn't right, and neither was obviously that defense to start
• 55:08
  Speaker 2: the game. Like I don't know if you had a
• 55:09
  Speaker 2: three and out or they had a couple of drops
• 55:10
  Speaker 2: to start, but all of a sudden, it was I
• 55:11
  Speaker 2: felt like it was twenty one to ten in that
• 55:13
  Speaker 2: game with the Rams. Here, we don't expect that to
• 55:17
  Speaker 2: be this type of game. But like you just said,
• 55:19
  Speaker 2: the value was going to eventually shift back to this
• 55:21
  Speaker 2: Detroit team, and you're right now that it's under two, Chad,
• 55:23
  Speaker 2: I'll support that move just because that's a really good
• 55:26
  Speaker 2: number on Detroit team. That could we lose this to
• 55:29
  Speaker 2: the best player in football and Josh Allen, Yes, But
• 55:32
  Speaker 2: now that it's under that key number, I could easily
• 55:35
  Speaker 2: see in this land at too and we cover this
• 55:37
  Speaker 2: like it just feels like a really nice number in
• 55:39
  Speaker 2: this spot.
• 55:39
  Speaker 1: Yeah, the teams are so evenly matched. It's strength against
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: weakness on offense and strength against weakness on defense. Lion's
• 55:46
  Speaker 1: pass offense is amongst the best in the league. Bill's
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: pass defense is near the bottom.
• 55:51
  Speaker 2: You know, So it's a great match. I mean, this
• 55:53
  Speaker 2: is a great match for Lions offense.
• 55:55
  Speaker 1: It's a great matchup. And like the Bill's rushing offense
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: is elite and the Lions is mediocre. So to me,
• 56:00
  Speaker 1: it really comes down to, I mean, it's insane.
• 56:04
  Speaker 2: That's insane.
• 56:05
  Speaker 1: It's insane. It's like can the can the Lion stop
• 56:08
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen when he improvises, that's really when he's at
• 56:12
  Speaker 1: his best. Dan Campbell strategically versus Sean McDermott, I have
• 56:17
  Speaker 1: a much more, much more confidence than Dan Campbell making
• 56:20
  Speaker 1: the right calls to maximize the opportunity to win the game.
• 56:25
  Speaker 2: You know your BET's coming down to a couple fourth downs.
• 56:27
  Speaker 2: That's what you know when you're making that The lines
• 56:29
  Speaker 2: right now, we know that's what it's coming down to.
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: Lion's executing in high variant situations. So with this number,
• 56:34
  Speaker 1: like now that it's below two, I got to take
• 56:37
  Speaker 1: the lines. It's Simon. Can you name the best ticketing
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: app in the United States?
• 56:43
  Speaker 2: Game Time?
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: That's right, it's our beloved sponsor, game Time. As Simon
• 56:49
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• 57:58
  Speaker 1: is it? Game talk?
• 58:00
  Speaker 2: All right?
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay at the Chargers Chargers from three point favorites
• 58:05
  Speaker 1: on Sunday? You said you like Tampa. You liked them
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: last week against the Raiders as a really touchdown favorite. Yeah,
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: what are you seeing here?
• 58:13
  Speaker 2: I just keep thinking every week this Tampa team's under
• 58:15
  Speaker 2: value that they don't get through respect they deserve. And
• 58:17
  Speaker 2: it's all because of the Mike Evans and Chris Godwin
• 58:20
  Speaker 2: injuries that happened weeks ago.
• 58:22
  Speaker 1: And by the way, you're so right, Like, I keep
• 58:26
  Speaker 1: thinking about this game, and I'm thinking, who are these people?
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: Why do they deserve to be in this close And
• 58:32
  Speaker 1: I keep forgetting that Mike Evans is back hurtling people.
• 58:34
  Speaker 2: In that and the only way for me is Bucky Irving,
• 58:38
  Speaker 2: who to me has been the lifeblood of this team.
• 58:41
  Speaker 2: He was banged up. I think he played like five
• 58:43
  Speaker 2: snaps last week and they took him out because I
• 58:45
  Speaker 2: think they quickly realized what are we doing here? Why
• 58:47
  Speaker 2: are we playing them in this game where we're just
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: gonna roll these guys? Now, it did get close, right,
• 58:51
  Speaker 2: There was a couple bad termers by you know, Baker,
• 58:55
  Speaker 2: and we talk about that when we bet Baker, we
• 58:58
  Speaker 2: we don't know what game are getting. Like got the
• 59:00
  Speaker 2: Jamie Winston thing where he when Baker's bad, he is
• 59:02
  Speaker 2: truly bad. When he's on, he is lights out perfect.
• 59:06
  Speaker 2: And we've seen this season this Bucks team that they
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: kind of played the level of their competition. And on
• 59:15
  Speaker 2: the flip side, this Chargers team feels a little overrated
• 59:18
  Speaker 2: because they did cover that when they're when they are
• 59:21
  Speaker 2: missing all those guys. Now if they're once a going
• 59:23
  Speaker 2: tonna be out, be out without the number one receiver
• 59:25
  Speaker 2: and their number one running back against the Buccaneers team
• 59:28
  Speaker 2: that is relatively healthy coming into this matchup, I just
• 59:31
  Speaker 2: feel like this was going to be a close game throughout,
• 59:33
  Speaker 2: Like this is just two teams that all season have
• 59:36
  Speaker 2: just grinded out ugly close games in matchups. So I
• 59:40
  Speaker 2: just think three is too much. I have this game
• 59:42
  Speaker 2: closer to a pick. I have the I honestly have
• 59:44
  Speaker 2: the Chargers minus one just because of Herbert. He's just
• 59:48
  Speaker 2: been playing so well in certain spots this season where
• 59:50
  Speaker 2: it's like he deserves that respect that even with those
• 59:54
  Speaker 2: injuries to the offense, he obviously can still move the
• 59:56
  Speaker 2: ball himself. But overall, they're playing against now another Buccaneers
• 1:00:00
  Speaker 2: team that's a good playoff team, like they're leaving their
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 2: division right now, and I just don't think they're getting respect.
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 2: Like even when I look in the Action app, the
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 2: money in the bets right now are still coming on
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 2: this Chargers team. So yeah, I like this matchup for
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 2: this Bucks team, not just offensively but defensively. I think
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 2: there are ways for them to get stops and attack
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 2: this Chargers team. And yeah, Chad, it's it's just a
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 2: key number of three. I just like that number.
• 1:00:24
  Speaker 1: Do we wait to see if it gets to three
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: and a half with the activity that's coming in in
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: the Chargers.
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I'd be shocked if the books move there because
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 2: I feel like they would get a ton of Tampa
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 2: money like this. This to me feels right because they
• 1:00:36
  Speaker 2: did a couple of books they'd go to two and
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 2: a half and they took a lot of Chargers money
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 2: and they just moved it right back to three. So
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 2: it does feel like that the type of line the
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 2: books will just let the betting public decide where this goes.
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 1: New England at Arizona. Arizona's a five and a half
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: point favorite. I was actually surprised that book bookmakers made
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 1: it close to seven on Sunday night. There were some
• 1:00:59
  Speaker 1: sevens out there on day mostly six and a half.
• 1:01:02
  Speaker 1: It's moved down to five and a half. It's like,
• 1:01:07
  Speaker 1: I get the move, but now it just feels like
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: it's in a dead zone where I have no opinion.
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 2: That's fair. I honestly wanted to fade New England here because,
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 2: like to me, that seven did feel high, but it
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 2: felt right because we've seen now that they I don't
• 1:01:25
  Speaker 2: want to say they're a different team on the road,
• 1:01:28
  Speaker 2: but it is tough for Drake may right, like, you know,
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 2: being a rookie that he is. You know, they went
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 2: to Jacksonville, they got blown out. I don't even know
• 1:01:38
  Speaker 2: it was. It was like thirty to twelve, something crazy
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 2: like that. And we saw that in Miami game they
• 1:01:42
  Speaker 2: lost thirty four to fifteen. There's just been times where
• 1:01:45
  Speaker 2: he's going on the road and he's really struggled. Now
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 2: there are outliers, right, they went to Chicago they won
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 2: nineteen to three, but we already talk about we thought
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 2: we had that more to do with the coaching than
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 2: anything else. And this Arizona team, I don't know, it
• 1:01:58
  Speaker 2: feels like even though the the pitcher coming off the
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 2: bye week, I just like it feels like they're a
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 2: good team that's desperate now playing against a bad team
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 2: that I just don't think they're good. Like I really
• 1:02:08
  Speaker 2: don't like New England. I get their identity of being
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 2: to run the ball, and Drake May having big plays downfield,
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 2: and I think he has the highest average per rush
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 2: right now in the season where when he does run
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 2: he runs for like ten yards. But man, this the field,
• 1:02:23
  Speaker 2: like the Lions, move so much, it's tempting me to
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 2: buy azon A. So I'm gonna wait, take some sharp
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 2: calls here what the pros do on this one, because
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 2: that's clearly really smart money that's moved that all the
• 1:02:32
  Speaker 2: way down from seven to five and a half to
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 2: a lot of books now chat are shown four and
• 1:02:35
  Speaker 2: a half, So this number just keeps coming down.
• 1:02:38
  Speaker 1: It's weird to me, Like my note about the Patriots,
• 1:02:43
  Speaker 1: It's why I didn't really have a strong opinion in
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: this is that at this point it's Drake May scrambling
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: for dear life and hoping he can improvise and do
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: a great play. By the way, another reason why Josh
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 1: Allen probably shouldn't win MVP of a record setting Saquon Barkley.
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: Josh Allen's not even the best scrambling quarterback in his division.
• 1:03:06
  Speaker 2: Drake May, oh my god, oh my god.
• 1:03:10
  Speaker 1: Clearly nobody knows what they're talking about. No one's looking
• 1:03:14
  Speaker 1: at the numbers. Numbers never lie green Bay at Seattle.
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 1: Seattle's a three point dog. I lean Seattle on Sunday night,
• 1:03:21
  Speaker 1: and this is a massive public dog right now. Based
• 1:03:24
  Speaker 1: on the current tickets, it seems like, and you said
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: this on Sunday, the wise guys are leaning towards the Packers,
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: one of the bigger pro Joe splits, and I think
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: it might be heading to three and a half. So
• 1:03:38
  Speaker 1: wise guys moving the book makers in that direction. The
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 1: one thing that scares me about the Seahawks the Packers
• 1:03:46
  Speaker 1: this year, for whatever reason, they are a ball hawking
• 1:03:49
  Speaker 1: defensive unit and Gino Smith has the second most interceptions
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 1: in the NFL.
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 2: Simon says, go grab green Bay minus two and a half.
• 1:03:58
  Speaker 1: Wow, when.
• 1:04:02
  Speaker 2: We do what Science Day a couple of big public books,
• 1:04:06
  Speaker 2: touff two and a half. I love this Sunday. I
• 1:04:09
  Speaker 2: didn't really get it because I didn't know why it
• 1:04:10
  Speaker 2: wasn't three, and Chad just said it like it. Clearly
• 1:04:15
  Speaker 2: the public has a side they like, and it's the Seahawks.
• 1:04:17
  Speaker 2: I don't know why they're underrating this green Bay team
• 1:04:19
  Speaker 2: who just played so well on Thursday night against the
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 2: lines that we've just I don't know. I feel like
• 1:04:26
  Speaker 2: maybe I'm getting sucked into urdu with chat. But anytime
• 1:04:30
  Speaker 2: the AMC North is playing outside their division now and
• 1:04:32
  Speaker 2: they're under a three under a field goal, you have
• 1:04:35
  Speaker 2: to take them. What if there's a twenty eight to
• 1:04:37
  Speaker 2: three outside their division this season, it's incredible. How well
• 1:04:41
  Speaker 2: that's not including the the Bears obviously this is just
• 1:04:44
  Speaker 2: for the Green Bay Vikings and Lions. Uh but no,
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 2: it's it's crazy. So to me, I love the matchup
• 1:04:53
  Speaker 2: for Green Bay. I think their offense can move. We'll
• 1:04:56
  Speaker 2: be able to move the ball against Seahawks defense that
• 1:04:58
  Speaker 2: I just was like a little overrated right now. They've
• 1:05:00
  Speaker 2: had a couple of things break their way, and I
• 1:05:02
  Speaker 2: do agree they've been playing better, but look at the
• 1:05:05
  Speaker 2: competition they've been going up against. This is going to
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 2: be a really, really great test for them, just because
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 2: we've seen all season Laflour. He just has such great scripts,
• 1:05:14
  Speaker 2: like game scripts, and he knows the exact time to
• 1:05:16
  Speaker 2: call certain plays. And you know, even when the Green
• 1:05:21
  Speaker 2: Bay doesn't have that many possessions like they did against
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 2: the Lines, he still maximized the possessions they did have.
• 1:05:26
  Speaker 2: And yeah, this matchup to me, it's all about the number.
• 1:05:30
  Speaker 2: Like I really love green Bay. It was gonna make
• 1:05:32
  Speaker 2: us put it in no matter what. If it was
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 2: under three. I hope you're wrong. If this is three
• 1:05:36
  Speaker 2: and a half in the contest, I don't know confident
• 1:05:38
  Speaker 2: I am taking Green Bay and Mines three and a
• 1:05:40
  Speaker 2: half in the contest, But two and a half, it's like,
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 2: must be in. This is a great spot, great number
• 1:05:45
  Speaker 2: on a really good team that are desperate. They are
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 2: so desperate in this spot because of that loss last
• 1:05:51
  Speaker 2: week to the Lions team. So it all matches up
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 2: really well scheme wise for this Green Bay team.
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: Really interesting. I'm looking at our notes right now, I'm
• 1:06:00
  Speaker 1: feeling like, if we can get a good number on Detroit,
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: a good number on Green Bay, We've got strong opinions
• 1:06:06
  Speaker 1: on at least two of the games that we would play.
• 1:06:09
  Speaker 1: And then we've got like fearful opinions on the Browns.
• 1:06:14
  Speaker 1: On the Steelers, yeah.
• 1:06:17
  Speaker 2: And then the Jaguars. We have some ugly dogs you
• 1:06:19
  Speaker 2: do like this week, But yeah, right now, me and
• 1:06:21
  Speaker 2: you are feeling definitely more confident about favorite betting.
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: Well, here's a wild card for you. Chicago Bears are
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: seven point underdogs at Minnesota. Forget about my Bears bias.
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: Like strictly speaking from a market point of view, isn't
• 1:06:37
  Speaker 1: this an inflated line? Like I said, along with the Jets,
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: there's not another team in the NFL this year whose
• 1:06:44
  Speaker 1: failures are more discussed, highlighted, debated, whose future is a
• 1:06:50
  Speaker 1: hotter topic than the Chicago Bears. I think that has
• 1:06:53
  Speaker 1: a huge impact on the line. I think it has
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: a huge impact on how bookmakers think the pub lick
• 1:07:00
  Speaker 1: is viewing this team. Don't forget that is the baseline
• 1:07:04
  Speaker 1: for bookmaking. What do book makers think the public is
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: going to think? And they set the number accordingly to
• 1:07:14
  Speaker 1: try to trap public betters into making decisions that are
• 1:07:19
  Speaker 1: in favor of the book. Now they are coming off
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: a legit ass kicking while the Vikings doubled up the Falcons.
• 1:07:32
  Speaker 1: The book makers are telling me that they expect the
• 1:07:37
  Speaker 1: public to come in on the Vikings at no matter
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: what the number, because of the perception of the Bears
• 1:07:44
  Speaker 1: and because of what the Vikings have been doing. Why
• 1:07:47
  Speaker 1: aren't I betting the Bears here?
• 1:07:50
  Speaker 2: I don't know. Maybe because it is something we talked
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 2: about too. Where the splits aren't great for Killer Williams
• 1:07:55
  Speaker 2: on the road compared to his home place. He's just
• 1:07:57
  Speaker 2: been a different GB on the road compared at home.
• 1:07:59
  Speaker 2: And obviously this is a team that saw seven straight games.
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 2: This is a third straight road game, which is obviously
• 1:08:05
  Speaker 2: tough on a team, especially one that is coming off
• 1:08:08
  Speaker 2: two straight road losses. And Minnesota they did take the
• 1:08:14
  Speaker 2: foot off the gas last time they played, and I
• 1:08:16
  Speaker 2: don't think that's gonna happen here, Chad, Like they were
• 1:08:18
  Speaker 2: up fourteen to that fourth quarter, came back that game,
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 2: god to ot. I think it did go overtime and
• 1:08:22
  Speaker 2: they had to squeak out a field goal just to
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 2: beat that Bears team. So I just can't see them
• 1:08:27
  Speaker 2: doing that again this week. Like I feel like this
• 1:08:30
  Speaker 2: is the type of game where, you know, Coach of
• 1:08:32
  Speaker 2: the Year Ken O'Connell just beats the shit out of
• 1:08:34
  Speaker 2: the Bears if you can and just run the score up.
• 1:08:36
  Speaker 2: But my biggest reason I want to fade the Vikings
• 1:08:39
  Speaker 2: just because of Sam Darnold coming off whatever that was
• 1:08:42
  Speaker 2: a five touchdown perfect game. Like it's it's really tough
• 1:08:47
  Speaker 2: because I'm right there with you. I'm looking for reasons
• 1:08:49
  Speaker 2: to take this Bears team and maybe I just should
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 2: just give up and stop overthinking, just take the seven.
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 2: But it's like, why is this number so big? I'm
• 1:08:58
  Speaker 2: in total agreements with you, and it's just maybe it's
• 1:09:00
  Speaker 2: just because of everything I just said that. This is
• 1:09:02
  Speaker 2: three straight road games for the Bears. They haven't won
• 1:09:04
  Speaker 2: in seven weeks. Any normal team that's gonna wear on you,
• 1:09:08
  Speaker 2: wearing your soul, and you saw that last week. They
• 1:09:11
  Speaker 2: looked totally lost, even though Caleb didn't stop trying, right
• 1:09:15
  Speaker 2: he came on the second half, thrown and they put
• 1:09:16
  Speaker 2: up a good fight. But yeah, this is two totally
• 1:09:20
  Speaker 2: different organizations right now. Like one is just totally surprised,
• 1:09:25
  Speaker 2: feeling great feel on top of all. The other one
• 1:09:26
  Speaker 2: is just totally disappointed. You know, we joked about coming
• 1:09:30
  Speaker 2: to the season. Their win total was nine and a
• 1:09:31
  Speaker 2: half on the Bears. It was six and a half
• 1:09:34
  Speaker 2: for this Vikings team. I mean, just totally different opposite
• 1:09:37
  Speaker 2: sides of the world at this point in the season. So, yeah, Jah,
• 1:09:40
  Speaker 2: this is one I'll stay away from right now. But
• 1:09:42
  Speaker 2: I'm with you. My initial gut reaction was like, just
• 1:09:45
  Speaker 2: take the seven, don't overthink it.
• 1:09:46
  Speaker 1: You can have one with that. The other you can't
• 1:09:49
  Speaker 1: have the Vikings be inflated and look for that opportunity
• 1:09:54
  Speaker 1: and not believe that the Bears are undervalued in this spot.
• 1:09:58
  Speaker 1: That's how the number gets the set. If you don't
• 1:10:00
  Speaker 1: have both things, then the number is probably closer to
• 1:10:03
  Speaker 1: say four and a half or five. So I'm not like,
• 1:10:08
  Speaker 1: I don't feel strongly we have to get this one in.
• 1:10:10
  Speaker 1: But to me, this was the best example of seeing
• 1:10:13
  Speaker 1: a by low a by low Sell high scenario for
• 1:10:20
  Speaker 1: this week's late So.
• 1:10:21
  Speaker 2: The Bears again give credit to the Bears that they
• 1:10:23
  Speaker 2: have played great in their division, like that Green Bay
• 1:10:25
  Speaker 2: game they lost twenty nineteen against Minnesota, they lost thirty
• 1:10:28
  Speaker 2: to twenty seven against their Troy lost twenty three to
• 1:10:30
  Speaker 2: twenty all three of those games they easily could have
• 1:10:32
  Speaker 2: flipped one. That's why they fired their head coach. So
• 1:10:35
  Speaker 2: it is an interesting spot.
• 1:10:37
  Speaker 1: Look the last game Atlanta, the Raiders. Raiders are four
• 1:10:41
  Speaker 1: and a half. This is the Desmond Raider revenge game. Yeah,
• 1:10:45
  Speaker 1: or it's the Kirk Cousins gets healthy game, or it's
• 1:10:48
  Speaker 1: the game you don't pay attention to because you're watching
• 1:10:51
  Speaker 1: the Bears and the Vikings.
• 1:10:53
  Speaker 2: I mean, we obviously don't have to spend that much
• 1:10:54
  Speaker 2: time when we'll get out of here just so we
• 1:10:55
  Speaker 2: get right onto the mark for Matt Mitchell here. But yeah,
• 1:10:58
  Speaker 2: I look at this one as I'll take Atlanta and
• 1:11:01
  Speaker 2: I won't watch a second on this game, which is
• 1:11:03
  Speaker 2: how does Atlanta not bounce back?
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 1: Here?
• 1:11:04
  Speaker 2: Kirk hasn't thrown a touchdown. It feels like four or
• 1:11:07
  Speaker 2: five weeks. This is the perfect get right spot against
• 1:11:10
  Speaker 2: a Raiders team that you know should have faded them
• 1:11:14
  Speaker 2: last week. Pissed we didn't because that was a spot
• 1:11:16
  Speaker 2: anytime they played tough against the Chiefs you just faded
• 1:11:19
  Speaker 2: the following week. This Raiders team against the Falcons, you know,
• 1:11:23
  Speaker 2: this is just a bad matchup, a raw for the Raiders.
• 1:11:25
  Speaker 2: So yeah, I'll take the Falcons, but not anything like
• 1:11:29
  Speaker 2: in our contest or anything.
• 1:11:30
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