Latest / Rick Outzen: (we don’t) color on the dog / Isaias Is Coming
Transcript
- Rick Outzen: Welcome to We Don't Color on the Dog. There's a storm in the Gulf. We're not going to fight whether it's Mexico or America, but we do have a storm coming our way. We've got Scotland Wilson, Escambie County meteorologist here. Scotland, what's the latest on the storm? Scottlin Wilson: Yeah, latest information. So hurricane hunters are flying into tropical storm Isaias. So currently 45 mile an hour winds has a thousand millibar is the pressure. So it is organizing. It is continuing to strengthen. It's expected to be a hurricane actually by Thursday, and peak forecast expected to be 110 miles an hour. And I want to put that number into perspective because category three. Which is considered a major hurricane, to be considered category three, winds need to be 111. So with peak forecast for this storm, what will be a hurricane, expected to be 110, that one mile an hour difference either way is not gonna make a huge difference, especially when it comes to impact. So we need to expect significant impacts here. rainfall, of Course, we know exactly what we had last weekend, so we already have saturated grounds, more rainfalls coming. We had some watches and warnings that came out with the latest update. so that was a really big update for us. We do currently have a hurricane watch. So that is an effect for here in Escambia County. We also have a storm surge watch in effect for us and we are expecting five to seven feet of surge. So we really ask people to monitor what we local officials, Escambia County Emergency Management, what we're saying, especially when it comes to ordering evacuations and opening shelters, all of the official information you can get from Escambia County Emergency Management. But overall the forecast I mean, lots of impacts come with this. So you can't really just focus on the center of that cone, which is what a lot of people do. They're like, not in the cone, no worries. Well, that's not the case because impacts are going to be felt well outside of that cone. The storm actually will be growing at it as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast. So even if some wind shear tries to tear it up a little bit, even still, we are. right in that cone and even outside of the cones gonna get those impacts with the heavy rain and the strong winds, maybe some power outages, tornadoes. We're watching for severe weather. We can't just glide over that tornadoes especially embedded in those rain bands. And if the storm does shear a little bit, a lot of the impacts will be further off to the east. I always say this phrase when it comes to tropical systems, West is best and east is beast. So being on the eastern Rick Outzen: Yes. Scottlin Wilson: side of the storm That's the wet and dirty side. That's where you get all of the impact. So we really just need to stay up to date with the forecast because the first cone came out at I think 4 p.m. yesterday. So we've gotten a couple of updated tracks since then. And each time it shifted a little bit to the east. So we are watching for wobbles either way. Rick Outzen: What are the what are the factors that will make it get stronger so that we c what are you looking for that shows that it that it's strengthening? Scottlin Wilson: Yeah, so one of the main things that I've been pushing messaging wise this entire hurricane season, even though it's El Nino, we can still get named storms, which we've seen, and we can still get hurricanes, which we are looking to get one in the next day or so. so what's fueling this is the extremely warm waters in the Gulf. So those waters are warm. So despite El Nino, we have that acting as fuel. The wind shear which is what El Nino brings, along with drier air, that's closer to the coast. So where Esaeus is sitting right now, it's able to strengthen and it has a favorable environment to do so. So it's not until it starts moving to the north where we get some of the interaction with the components that tropical systems don't like. Rick Outzen: When do you expect it to turn north? What are they thinking now on that, Scott? Scottlin Wilson: Yeah, so that's what we're really watching for. And with the recon data coming in from the hurricane hunters, we're able to see the internal structure and when that turn actually has taken place because where and when it turns and how quickly it turns does have an impact in the track. So we're watching for those shifts. So will it be a later turn, will it be an earlier turn, will it move slower, or will it move faster? And another thing, speaking of moving slower, that some people tend to do is comparing it to other storms. So we can't compare this to a Hurricane Sally and we can't even compare it to a Hurricane Michael because different situations, different impacts, different size of the system, just different components overall that just make up this tropical system. This is currently tropical storm Esius, and so we need to take it for what it is. Rick Outzen: How often will the updates come in, Scotland? What can we expect? Scottlin Wilson: Yeah, so we get updates from we're always in con constant contact with the National Weather Service. The National Hurricane Center, they just had their latest update come out, their full advisory that came out at 10 a.m. We will get another one at 4 and then 10 p.m. and then again at 4 a.m. They can and will do intermediate advisories as Rick Outzen: Mm-hmm. Scottlin Wilson: needed and if needed, but they don't always do that. And even if they do that, Maybe it's not a track update. Maybe it's just information within their discussion. So their main update to the next one we'll be looking out for is four PM today. Rick Outzen: The you know, we know and and I recommend to everybody who's watching this is under this is the time to be prepared. You know, to make Scottlin Wilson: Yeah, absolutely. Rick Outzen: your be make your plans. be prepared to be without power for a week now. Scottlin Wilson: Yes. Rick Outzen: it's hopefully not. Scottlin Wilson: Yeah. Rick Outzen: but but but you need to be prepared for that. th the what will cause how does the evacuation protocols go? Scottlin Wilson: Yeah, so we have a study that's done all around Florida, and it goes off of your population and timing arcs of if you were to evacuate this zone and this many people evacuated, this is the time that you would need to use. So we have a system that helps us calculate with evacuation timing, and it's also based off of, like I said, the zones you should evacuate. That's why, like you just mentioned some of the top preparedness tips. The first one though is know your zone. So you have to know Rick Outzen: Mm-hmm. Scottlin Wilson: if you're in an evacuation zone because we're not going to say, hey, if you're at this address, you need to evacuate. We're evacuating you by your zone letter, which is A through E. So you need to know your zone. And if you don't know that, you can go to our website, myscambia.com/slash know your zone. Florida Division of Emergency Management also has a know your zone portal where you can put in your address and it'll tell you. if you're in a zone and if so which one so that's the first thing and then know your home and know your plan which you just went over perfectly you need to be ready for seven days hopefully we wouldn't not be out of power for that long but you need to be self-sufficient or be able to be self-sufficient for at least seven days enough food and water for you every member of your family including pets and I will say also with the executive order that came out the governor issued yesterday he signed that that opens up another door for medication. So if you just got your medication filled, let's say last week, you can get it filled again for a 30 day supply. So that's what that executive order. And a lot of people don't realize that. So if people need medication, because you don't know when pharmacies are gonna open back up again either. So a lot of information, and I'm gonna be doing some social media videos and obviously social media posts and interviews like this to Really get the messaging out and the information out that people need to know because today and tomorrow these are final preparation days, especially the days with good weather before everything starts to deteriorate. Rick Outzen: Yeah, Scotland, you said something real important is for everybody. R each storm is unique. It it's it's the the the category, the number, the way it travels, it they are unique. And having lived here since eighty two, I can testify to that that every Scottlin Wilson: Yeah. Rick Outzen: storm, sometimes it feels like like with Sally, we thought we were out of the out of any worry, and then all of a sudden it took a severe turn our direction and caught us off guard. with with other storms we've had plenty of time to prepare and and did much better with and and so there's just it it's mother nature. So it's there's there's not y'all do a great job predicting with Scottlin Wilson: Thank you. Rick Outzen: the best information that you have at the time. And Scottlin Wilson: Yeah, yeah. And I'm so thankful for folks like the hurricane hunters that are willing and brave Rick Outzen: Right. Scottlin Wilson: enough to fly into the middle of those systems to give us the data because now that it's come in, because you can look at some models and one may say this and one may say that. but as that recon data continues to come in, things will continue lining up and getting on board with each other. So that's really good to have them. And then of course we have all the meteorologists at the weather service and the hurricane center that are also putting all this data together just as we here at home as meteorologists are, whether you're watching my social media or our local meteorologist on TV, we're doing the same to get the messaging out and give the best forecast we can. Rick Outzen: Great. Scotland, thank you so much for doing this. I appreciate it. All right. Scottlin Wilson: Anytime. Thanks. Rick Outzen: Take care.