Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / Worst is Over?📉Crypto Market Update

Transcript

Worst is Over?📉Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

0:06
Speaker 1: As the market bottom today, we're going to find out
0:07
Speaker 1: for you. My name is Paul Barreon. Welcome back in
0:09
Speaker 1: the tech path. Let's get going today. I do want
0:12
Speaker 1: to think our sponsor, and that is Coinbase. Guys, if
0:14
Speaker 1: you are catching this video right now, there's a couple
0:17
Speaker 1: of things, act fast because Coinbase is rotating their offers
0:21
Speaker 1: and this one is the one where you can get
0:23
Speaker 1: up to two hundred bucks to get started, so you
0:25
Speaker 1: could be one of the lucky ones that gets the
0:26
Speaker 1: two hundred dollars reward. All you have to do is
0:29
Speaker 1: use our link down below. The future of money is here.
0:31
Speaker 1: We're the most trusted place for people in business to
0:34
Speaker 1: buy and sell and use crypto, so check it out.
0:37
Speaker 1: It's a great place forget to start if you're brand
0:39
Speaker 1: new to crypto, which this is a good time to
0:41
Speaker 1: get into crypto.
0:42
Speaker 2: Guys. Good time.
0:43
Speaker 1: Let's go over to our first few points here. I
0:45
Speaker 1: want to hit on this news story right here. This
0:47
Speaker 1: is a bitcoin trader out there doubting the breakout significance
0:51
Speaker 1: as bitcoin price nears eighty seven K. A couple of
0:54
Speaker 1: points he makes within this are that there is continued
0:57
Speaker 1: strength and the weekend had set up kind of a
1:00
Speaker 1: pair of an attack levels closer to ninety k. It's
1:03
Speaker 1: funny watching sentiment flip.
1:04
Speaker 2: I would agree with that. Let me know in the
1:06
Speaker 2: comments down below.
1:07
Speaker 1: Do you think this is kind of an unusual flip
1:09
Speaker 1: of sentiment, because right now sentiment has risen quite a
1:12
Speaker 1: bit if you look at fear and greed, if you
1:14
Speaker 1: look at just in general, sentiment.
1:16
Speaker 2: Overall has flipped quite a bit.
1:18
Speaker 1: Short term momentum appears bullish, but we still face multiple
1:21
Speaker 1: resistance hurdles before confirming the correction is complete. I still
1:26
Speaker 1: think though I agree and respect you know, traders and
1:31
Speaker 1: especially guys who look at the logic behind what we're
1:36
Speaker 1: dealing with when you're charting things out and technical analysis
1:39
Speaker 1: is definitely respected. But my point is right now is
1:42
Speaker 1: I feel like there's just so much more macro pressure
1:45
Speaker 1: in the markets as a whole.
1:47
Speaker 2: One thing to look at.
1:48
Speaker 1: From macro pressure is this right here, US consumers are exhausted.
1:52
Speaker 1: Real income growth expectations of US consumers over the next
1:56
Speaker 1: five years record low. Americans in the third bottom third
2:00
Speaker 1: income group now see record low minus eighteen percent chance
2:03
Speaker 1: of higher inflation just incomes in the next five years.
2:06
Speaker 1: You also look at comparison of five years ago, this
2:09
Speaker 1: was percentages twice as large.
2:11
Speaker 2: So this is a big deal.
2:13
Speaker 1: In other words, consumers see inflation outpacing wage growth for
2:17
Speaker 1: a foreseeable future. And this is a problem because if
2:21
Speaker 1: that is going on right now, and you look at
2:24
Speaker 1: what this current administration is doing, the promise was to
2:28
Speaker 1: lower prices, lower prices, President Trump, he is failing at that,
2:33
Speaker 1: with exception of a handful of things.
2:34
Speaker 2: Yes, eggs are a little bit.
2:36
Speaker 1: Lower, gas is cheaper, But the core of what we're
2:39
Speaker 1: seeing on inflation has not necessarily completely repaced itself, and
2:44
Speaker 1: I think we're in for some time to get that done.
2:46
Speaker 1: Volatility in US treasuries has also been on a historic level.
2:50
Speaker 1: The ten year note served over fifty bases points in
2:53
Speaker 1: one week, make it the largest weekly increase since two
2:56
Speaker 1: thousand and one. I want you guys to go back
2:59
Speaker 1: and just do a little history lesson on two thousand
3:01
Speaker 1: and one and what was going on at that time.
3:04
Speaker 1: We saw one of the biggest retraces off the S
3:07
Speaker 1: and P five hundred that the market had ever seen
3:10
Speaker 1: that came from the bomb era. So is that nearing
3:13
Speaker 1: in Warren Buffett is setting on enough cash to buy
3:16
Speaker 1: four hundred and seventy six companies in the S and
3:18
Speaker 1: P five hundred. That is a ton of liquid guys
3:22
Speaker 1: that is ready to be deployed in the market.
3:25
Speaker 2: Now.
3:25
Speaker 1: The question is is are and are they willing to
3:29
Speaker 1: start moving that into a lot of these assets.
3:31
Speaker 2: I want to go to a clip real quick.
3:33
Speaker 1: This is Mark Cuban because he's talking about his portfolio strategy.
3:36
Speaker 2: Take a look what is Mark Cuban doing right now
3:38
Speaker 2: with his portfolio?
3:39
Speaker 3: When Trump was elected, I sold most of my stocks
3:44
Speaker 3: and went to cash. I didn't get hurt, except I
3:46
Speaker 3: owned a bunch of bitcoins, so I got hurt a
3:48
Speaker 3: little bit there. So I went to cash just in
3:51
Speaker 3: anticipation that something like this could happen. And so in
3:54
Speaker 3: terms of what I've done so far, I bought a
3:56
Speaker 3: little bit of Berkshire Hathaway. Warren Buffett went to cash.
3:59
Speaker 3: And if I had it voice between having me invest
4:01
Speaker 3: my cash or Warren Buffet invest my cash, I'll have
4:04
Speaker 3: Warren Buffett invest my cash.
4:05
Speaker 1: Based on that, you look at this right here, and
4:08
Speaker 1: this is the S and P turns negative as the
4:10
Speaker 1: EU says tariffs will remain with little progress made in
4:13
Speaker 1: tariff talks. Now, here's the thing I want you to
4:15
Speaker 1: focus on, guys, because this is why you're seeing investors
4:18
Speaker 1: like Buffet, Cuban and others starting to move to cash positions.
4:24
Speaker 1: And that is this volatility right here. Look at that volatility, guys,
4:27
Speaker 1: that's the S and P five hundred. So if you
4:30
Speaker 1: are in a position where you don't have the stomach
4:33
Speaker 1: to go long term, long hold, then cash positions are
4:37
Speaker 1: a great way to exit a market and be ready
4:41
Speaker 1: for something else. Now that's the real question going forward.
4:45
Speaker 1: Has the S and P hit its bottom? I still
4:48
Speaker 1: believe we are in for more volatility because there's no
4:52
Speaker 1: telling what this White House is going to do. And
4:54
Speaker 1: I think that's not anything to laugh at. But the
4:56
Speaker 1: point is you're going to see some volatility continuing to
4:59
Speaker 1: hold in the markets. Here is David Trump from the
5:02
Speaker 1: Atlantic coming in and he says this past week trying
5:05
Speaker 1: to learn this exactly where Trump's pain points are, how
5:07
Speaker 1: much to squeezed before he flinches, and also how little
5:10
Speaker 1: America's partners and allies want to help.
5:13
Speaker 2: Now you could look.
5:13
Speaker 1: At this and say, well, there's many strategies going on
5:16
Speaker 1: with Trump. I'm not a whisperer of trying to figure
5:20
Speaker 1: out what they are. What I can tell you is
5:23
Speaker 1: I've been in business for thirty years and I've seen
5:25
Speaker 1: negotiation tactics, some of which I would agree with on Trump,
5:28
Speaker 1: some of which I would not. The randomness of his
5:32
Speaker 1: moves are what make him very unpredictable and at the
5:36
Speaker 1: same time predictable. And I know that's kind of a counterbalance,
5:40
Speaker 1: but I think that that's the issue that the Chinese
5:42
Speaker 1: are playing with President Trump right now, is what can
5:45
Speaker 1: they predict that will cause enough pain.
5:47
Speaker 2: We've already seen this in the.
5:49
Speaker 1: Situation with Apple and the chips, and that is Semiconductor's chips.
5:54
Speaker 1: Apple get a reprieve on these tariffs.
5:56
Speaker 2: He flinched.
5:57
Speaker 1: I don't think that was a good flinch. If you're
5:59
Speaker 1: going to stay and your ground, you've got to stand
6:01
Speaker 1: your ground, and unfortunately Trump did not. That's probably going
6:04
Speaker 1: to happen, and happen also with what's going to go
6:07
Speaker 1: on with this whole issue with Boeing, because China now
6:10
Speaker 1: has ordered airlines to stop accepting Boeing aircraft and also
6:14
Speaker 1: to halt purchase of American made aviation parts. Now, I'm
6:18
Speaker 1: assuming that means air Boss is going to do very
6:20
Speaker 1: well in selling their planes to China. I also believe
6:24
Speaker 1: that that's probably going to put a lot more pressure
6:26
Speaker 1: on Boeing. The issue right here, though, is Boeing. I
6:30
Speaker 1: hate to say it kind of deserves it. They've had
6:32
Speaker 1: very bad mismanagement over the last couple of really the
6:35
Speaker 1: last decade. I don't think you protect Boeing either. You know,
6:39
Speaker 1: these companies are in these positions because of bad decisions
6:42
Speaker 1: by executives that were looking to cut costs and greed.
6:47
Speaker 1: As you know, some would say greed is good, but
6:51
Speaker 1: not in this particular case. Let's go further into this.
6:54
Speaker 1: China won't talk if the US doesn't show respects, says
6:57
Speaker 1: a former official.
6:59
Speaker 2: This is another is that.
7:00
Speaker 1: I reluctantly agree with China. I agree with anybody. Actually,
7:05
Speaker 1: I agree with anybody who has to go to a
7:07
Speaker 1: negotiation table and the person on the other side does
7:11
Speaker 1: not show at least a micron of respect. You mean,
7:14
Speaker 1: I have to like the person, and in many cases
7:17
Speaker 1: in negotiation like this, people don't like each other. But
7:19
Speaker 1: respect is one of the key things that can get
7:23
Speaker 1: things to go forward, and I think that is all
7:26
Speaker 1: it would take out of President Trump, and personally I
7:28
Speaker 1: believe that that would actually be a good faith effort
7:32
Speaker 1: on the president of the United States that would not
7:34
Speaker 1: look weak at all. Instead, it would look very very presidential.
7:38
Speaker 1: And that is to an extend a little bit of
7:40
Speaker 1: a truce and show a little respect and invite the
7:44
Speaker 1: Chinese to come in and negotiate a trade and balanced
7:47
Speaker 1: deal that does work for both them and for the
7:50
Speaker 1: United States. That is just politics as a hole. But
7:54
Speaker 1: if you look at the rest of the world, the yen,
7:57
Speaker 1: the en surge and also soaring bond yields could threaten
8:00
Speaker 1: a little bit of what is happening with bitcoin, especially
8:03
Speaker 1: as the Bank of Japan weighs in on their policy ship,
8:06
Speaker 1: because if they do see a situation where we get
8:09
Speaker 1: a policy ship, remember the rallying in and the highest
8:12
Speaker 1: Japanese yield bonds in thirty years, This is a little
8:15
Speaker 1: bit of a warning sign. Their thirty year bond yield
8:18
Speaker 1: jump almost two point three percent.
8:21
Speaker 2: And then you also look at the boj are.
8:24
Speaker 1: Fed think of it that way, They may be in
8:26
Speaker 1: a position now where they have to start to pivot,
8:29
Speaker 1: and this of course is because of the en rally,
8:31
Speaker 1: and of course remember weaker in past one sixty meanwhile,
8:34
Speaker 1: could force tightener policy. Tightening policy and global markets are
8:38
Speaker 1: watching this very closely, and crypto may be the one.
8:40
Speaker 2: Of the first to feel the heat.
8:41
Speaker 1: I would agree with that again because liquidity will start
8:44
Speaker 1: to flow out of that market, and the Asian markets
8:46
Speaker 1: are very pivotal in terms of how risk assets are managed.
8:50
Speaker 1: So all of that kind of pointing to the next thing,
8:52
Speaker 1: and that is bitcoin, gold ETFs.
8:56
Speaker 2: Let's take a look.
8:58
Speaker 4: Bitcoin is down about ten percent at the year, Gold's
9:01
Speaker 4: up twenty percent, but if you look out over one year,
9:03
Speaker 4: they're both up about thirty five percent. So it's pretty
9:05
Speaker 4: interesting that there's been this divergence. But if you go
9:07
Speaker 4: back and you take a look, you can actually see
9:09
Speaker 4: that gold usually leads these rallies, and nobody really knows
9:12
Speaker 4: why that happens. My kind of guess would be that
9:15
Speaker 4: a lot of the central banks and institutional investors they're
9:17
Speaker 4: either not approved to buy bitcoin or they're not used
9:20
Speaker 4: to running to bitcoin in these moments of kind of
9:22
Speaker 4: geopolitical uncertainty. What we do see though, is when gold
9:25
Speaker 4: runs about one hundred days later or so, bitcoin not
9:27
Speaker 4: only catches up, it usually runs much harder, and so
9:30
Speaker 4: you get that kind of higher volatility.
9:31
Speaker 2: But if you're buying bitcoin via.
9:33
Speaker 4: The ETFs, you're simply just getting price exposure. You're not
9:36
Speaker 4: actually doing it from a geopolitical strategy standpoint. And so
9:39
Speaker 4: I think there's a lot of countries around the world
9:40
Speaker 4: that are saying to themselves, well, the United States has
9:42
Speaker 4: a strategic bitcoin reserve. They're openly talking about the fact
9:44
Speaker 4: that they're going to go buy more. We should have
9:46
Speaker 4: a bitcoin strategy. Doesn't mean that we have to buy
9:48
Speaker 4: We could just sit it out. We need to have
9:50
Speaker 4: a decision here, and buying the ETF allows me to
9:53
Speaker 4: get price exposure, but not actually take on the geopolitical risk.
9:56
Speaker 1: Okay, I like Pomp, don't get me wrong, but you
9:59
Speaker 1: got to remember Pomp is a bitcoin I won't say MAXI,
10:03
Speaker 1: but he's highly invested in bitcoin. There is a reason
10:06
Speaker 1: that he's always very pro Bitcoin not a bad thing.
10:08
Speaker 1: Good investors talk their book. That's okay, nothing wrong with that.
10:12
Speaker 1: I get people in here all the time they're talking
10:14
Speaker 1: their book. You just have to know that that is
10:16
Speaker 1: their book. You look at bitcoin flashing signals and agreeing
10:20
Speaker 1: with what Pomp is saying, is that there are some
10:22
Speaker 1: potential opportunities here, and a lot of it is early
10:25
Speaker 1: sale signs, or should say by signs right now. But
10:28
Speaker 1: this could push leading digital currency two one hundred and
10:30
Speaker 1: seventy k. This is one of the things they're looking at.
10:32
Speaker 1: It's flashed the ultimate vixed bottom signal. This gets back
10:35
Speaker 1: to the volatility index and have we hit the bottom.
10:38
Speaker 1: If we have, then the opportunity is clear. Yes, bitcoin
10:42
Speaker 1: does respond after a vix bottom signal is in and
10:45
Speaker 1: you look further into this similar move could see boitcoin
10:48
Speaker 1: reaching at least an under and fifty K during its
10:51
Speaker 1: next major advance. Now, I don't know if you guys
10:53
Speaker 1: believe that or not. If you do, drop some comments
10:57
Speaker 1: down below. Do you think we are now at the
10:59
Speaker 1: bottom and this is the point of maybe no return
11:02
Speaker 1: for Bitcoin back to a recursor or do you feel
11:05
Speaker 1: like this is just one of those volatility moves of
11:09
Speaker 1: what and how bitcoin moves in general. Ethereum also near
11:14
Speaker 1: historic lows. This of course many people saying that maybe
11:17
Speaker 1: this goes a little bit worse. I'm not necessarily in
11:20
Speaker 1: that camp that Ethereum could be in that kind of
11:23
Speaker 1: dire position. Now, granted, eth has definitely not been an
11:27
Speaker 1: asset that has moved over the past year in the
11:30
Speaker 1: way that I think a lot of eth investors expected
11:32
Speaker 1: it to. But if you look in general at ethereum,
11:36
Speaker 1: it just hit an all time high in terms of
11:38
Speaker 1: stable coin activity, and stable coins are getting ready to
11:40
Speaker 1: be legal tender across a lot of different banks and
11:45
Speaker 1: businesses in the United States, which I think will cause
11:48
Speaker 1: a mass move into stable coins, and that only is
11:51
Speaker 1: going to push ethereum up.
11:53
Speaker 2: That gives me, Now, will it.
11:55
Speaker 1: Push ethereum to maybe a three to four x which
11:58
Speaker 1: is some people out there saying that's the real question
12:01
Speaker 1: mark going forward. Just to give you an example, stablecoin
12:03
Speaker 1: market could grow by two trillion by end of twenty
12:06
Speaker 1: twenty eight. This is Standard Charter saying this. And Standard
12:09
Speaker 1: Charter is the company that also said we could see
12:12
Speaker 1: bitcoin and or excuse me, ethereum up as high as
12:15
Speaker 1: four k again very easily. So a lot of moves here,
12:18
Speaker 1: I think in the market in general, two hundred and
12:20
Speaker 1: thirty billion right now today, two trillion by year end.
12:23
Speaker 1: Think about that right now, guys, Let me zoom in
12:26
Speaker 1: on that two thirty two hundred and thirty billion today
12:29
Speaker 1: end of year twenty twenty eight, two trillion dollars. That
12:35
Speaker 1: is unbelievable in terms of growth, and that may be
12:38
Speaker 1: underscoring it. That may actually be lower than what could
12:41
Speaker 1: happen in stable coins going forward. You also have to
12:45
Speaker 1: look at this right here. Over the last hundred years
12:47
Speaker 1: is Miles Doscher, which if you don't watch his channel,
12:50
Speaker 1: shoul probably check him out. He's got a good YouTube channel.
12:52
Speaker 1: I kind of watch him every once and an ounce.
12:54
Speaker 1: Shout out to Miles. Over the last hundred years, bull
12:57
Speaker 1: markets have yielded an average return of one hundred and
13:01
Speaker 1: forty nine percent. If you look at the bears, they've
13:03
Speaker 1: only given up thirty one percent, so you kind of
13:05
Speaker 1: weigh that out.
13:06
Speaker 2: It's always kind of.
13:07
Speaker 1: Pays to be on the bull side of the market
13:10
Speaker 1: because if you miss it, what are you out?
13:12
Speaker 2: You're out. That's a good wager.
13:14
Speaker 1: If you look at the percentage of loss versus the
13:16
Speaker 1: percentage of gain opportunity, and remember this is exactly that
13:20
Speaker 1: markets like this are bets.
13:23
Speaker 2: These are bets.
13:24
Speaker 1: Investing is looking at the long term over a longer
13:28
Speaker 1: period of time, and if you look at the total
13:29
Speaker 1: three this right now shows a very interesting trend. Right
13:35
Speaker 1: now on crypto, we are struggling to get in and
13:38
Speaker 1: out of this for a breakout, but this also could
13:41
Speaker 1: indicate we have a bottom ensuing. Now does that mean
13:45
Speaker 1: that we get a reversal on bitcoin? I think that's
13:47
Speaker 1: the question mark right now because at the current trend
13:50
Speaker 1: right now that we are on bitcoin, yes we have
13:52
Speaker 1: a trend going up. Does it get back to that
13:55
Speaker 1: ninety four K mark, which is the potential of where
13:58
Speaker 1: we could go, or do we see a retrain.
14:00
Speaker 2: Basement right now?
14:01
Speaker 1: I'm feeling because of the volatility that we're seeing with
14:03
Speaker 1: Trump's tariffs, and again this could go positive or negative.
14:08
Speaker 1: If we get real positive news, meaning a deal with China,
14:12
Speaker 1: that would be the key indicator. I think the markets
14:15
Speaker 1: would rip almost on everything, maybe with the exception of
14:19
Speaker 1: a handful of categories within the S and P five
14:22
Speaker 1: hundred because that is much more recessionary.
14:25
Speaker 2: All of that still playing forward.
14:26
Speaker 1: And if you look at even ethereum, let's take a
14:28
Speaker 1: look at eth real quickly not moving as tightly right
14:33
Speaker 1: here as you can kind of see just off this
14:35
Speaker 1: bottom right here to around thirteen eighty six, and if
14:38
Speaker 1: you look at the growth on that, what was that
14:40
Speaker 1: just a little hair. Yeah, only twenty percent of where
14:43
Speaker 1: we are trading right now. Someone going sideways right now
14:46
Speaker 1: on eth. So again, let me know on the comments
14:48
Speaker 1: down below, what are you buying? Are you getting into
14:50
Speaker 1: all coins right now? Some of these are depressed, some
14:52
Speaker 1: of them have recovered. Salana has recovered a significant amount
14:55
Speaker 1: just in the last little bit. Or are you staying
14:58
Speaker 1: safe in a cash position? Are you posturing into gold?
15:02
Speaker 1: Give me your decisions down below. If you're not the
15:04
Speaker 1: Diamond circle, get in on that. And if you're not
15:07
Speaker 1: in our telegram group, you got to join. It's free
15:10
Speaker 1: and I'm in there every day chatting with you guys.
15:12
Speaker 1: So if you want to send a message, do it
15:14
Speaker 1: on the telegram group down below. There's a link. Also,
15:17
Speaker 1: follow me on x at Paul Baron. We'll catch you
15:19
Speaker 1: next time right here on tech Path