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Big 10 Breakdown & Win Total Projections · Mike Check - A College Football Podcast

• Jackson: Welcome back. Hello everyone. My name is Jackson Allen. That's Davis Bowman. This is the Mic Check Podcast. I told myself I wasn't gonna do this again, but I did it. Davis: I g I guess I'm catching myself doing it too. Jackson: Yeah, every time I say the Mic Jack podcast, I'm I'm over here over here nodding. All right. So today's episode we're gonna be breaking down Big Ten, going over win total similar to the SEC episode. got a special guest joining us today, Davis. You wanna you wanna introduce him while I get him in here? Davis: Yeah. figured we might as well bring in the the expert on the Big Ten. So the one and only my brother, Will Bowman. Welcome in. Jackson: There he is. Will what's going on, man? Will B: How are you guys doing? Doing well, how are y'all? Jackson: Good, good. You excited to be on the pod, Will B: Yeah, excited to join you guys and talk a football. Jackson: Let's do it. Let's do it. All right. Davis: Well well I I advertised you as the expert, so a lot rotten. Will B: Yeah, we'll see how that goes, see what I know. Davis: Yeah. Well we did we Jackson: We'll see, we'll see. Davis: did talk about a little intro with this being the Big Ten. if you didn't catch the the first episode, which was the storylines and contender tier list, be sure to do that. And then also did the SEC. and then we got the ACC and Big Twelve coming up, so definitely stick around for that. Jackson: Yeah, SC ACC Big Twelve will yeah, it'll be a it'll be a the com a combo show. Just make things easier seasons kinda Yeah. Yeah, if Will B: You guys just put those two outside the mega conferences, do one episode. Jackson: you if you hadn't won a national Davis: Yeah. Jackson: title in what was it? Fift twelve, fifteen years, then you don't get your own upset. Davis: I it's well yeah, since Clemson, right, and then Will B: Clipson. Jackson: Clemson. Okay, yeah. I don't know what I'm thinking. Still. Will B: Was that 21? Davis: Clemson was in twenty Will B: Nah. Davis: seventeen. Jackson: Twenty eighteen. Will B: Jeez, that's a 21. Way up. Davis: Twenty eighteen and then and then the Big Twelve hadn't won since Jackson: Oklahoma probably way back when. Davis: Or I mean Texas since then. Will B: Texas, 2006. Jackson: Texas an five, yeah, that's right. I'm off on my stats. Davis: But I don't know if there's one since then. But Jackson: no, it's Davis: yeah, so they're getting thrown in together. Jackson: Yeah. All right, let's I'm Will B: That makes sense. Jackson: gonna share the screen and we'll just go over the that same kind of chart we we did for the SEC, if I can remember how to do this. Alright. Rory jump into it. Davis: Yeah, let's do it. Jackson: Alright, let's let's start with Ohio State. So I know for the SEC we did it a little bit differently. We gave a team breakdown and then came back to the over unders and where we had the teams, but I think this time we're just gonna do it all together. So let's start start at the top. And for some reason, put Indiana at the bottom here. So we'll we'll get back around to them. But Ohio State obviously is big favorite. Davis: Currently the betting Jackson: In the big ten. Davis: favorite. Jackson: Yeah, currently the betting favor are they the national title favorite? Are they the odds on favorite to win to win at all? Davis: Yeah, national yeah, national title favorite. Jackson: I mean not not much I don't have Will B: 40 first place in the first poll. Jackson: much to to note on Ohio State. You got Julian Saint coming back, Jeremiah Smith. they're gonna have a really good team. Will Davis, you guys wanna add any any notes there? Davis: Yeah, I mean, you obviously have some big losses for first round draft picks with Sonny Styles, Caleb Downs, Carnell Tate and Arvell Reese. So obviously lost talent, but it's Ohio State. Shouldn't shouldn't be too concerned with being able to replace the talent. first year O. C. Arthur Smith. Jackson: Your favorite your favorite guy? Davis: also have Matt Patricia. Yeah, yeah, check out the the first episode if you want to hear my opinion on Arthur Smith. But yeah, I think Jackson: yeah. Davis: the talent speaks for itself. I mean, Julian Saiyan, you know, will be, first team, big ten, I believe. And then obviously the generational talent at wide receiver. Jackson: Offense is gonna be there. Defense, you lose, as you mentioned, a some key pieces, but then you add, I think I mentioned this in the last podcast, Quay Russaw and James Smith come over from Alabama, which are are two big additions. so not much concern for me on either side of the ball. I just think kind of the same thing every year with Ohio State is can they win the big games? You know, they have those two, three see the schedules pulls up. They add At Texas here, at Indiana, Oregon, and then obviously Michigan. So how many of those can they can they win? And if they slip up, will they will they be able to kinda hold their ground in the Big Ten and get to back to the Big Ten championship? But I don't think there's much to elaborate on Ohio State. Will, you got anything to add? Will B: No, I'm just going to say they actually lost seven players to the draft just on defense. I I have to imagine that has to be a step back. I that's hard to replace seven guys all to the draft. And now you're going to Texas. think you, I mean, you have, this is the toughest schedule that you can get. play USC, Indiana and Oregon, and then you're out of conference game is Texas. So I think it's a very tough schedule, but, and then obviously Michigan as well, but. Tough schedule, I they had the toughest break out of all the tier one, 10 schools. Jackson: Yeah, I I think I missed the Davis: Yeah, and I think that tough schedule is obviously reflected in the overunder from Vegas. I mean, Will B: Yeah. Davis: their overunder is a a full point under or full win less than Oregon and Indiana, yet they have the highest odds at a national championship. And that is solely due to that schedule that Will just elaborated on. I will say that that nine and a half, the money is juiced to the over. So Guess that nine and a half really is probably leaning a little a little heavier, towards that that ten number. Will B: mean, would you say that Jackson: Yeah. Will B: you got Texas versus Ohio State? mean, that's the game two, week two is the difference maker. Davis: Yeah, I mean, without a doubt. Oreg I mean, that's a half like a half win according to Vegas difference than what Oregon and Indiana is getting right off the bat, just with Indiana's non conference being Indiana State or something. I don't know what it is off the top of my head. but defin yeah, definitely. Will B: The camels. Davis: The Indiana Will B: Taliesin. Davis: State. Indiana State's what, the Sigamores? Jackson: Sycamores. The Campbell Camels is what you're thinking of, I think. Will B: I thought Indiana Davis: Yeah. Will B: plays the camels. Davis: Yeah. We'll we'll we'll Jackson: They probably do. Davis: get to their schedule. but yeah. Jackson: I'm I'm slightly under. I think that's the Texas game kinda carried a lot of that weight. then again at Indiana at USC, those are also tough games that I'm not giving Ohio State a huge edge against Indiana, USC I think they would win. Like I I probably I think I had them at I don't know about fifty seven ish percent against Indiana and then against USC, I would probably get them in the sixties range. But I just think it's gonna be it's gonna be hard to go on the road and win in this league. I mean you go at the Big Ten champs and then USC is a tough game. And then Michigan, obviously to end the year is never easy. and then the non con against Texas kind of throws a wrench and everything. And like you said, I think That's why that totals at nine and a half. so that's that's why I had it slightly under there. Davis: Yeah, and I'm at right at nine and a half. so yeah, w with with the with the odds being juiced to the over, I'd lean under even though the projection that I have is meets Vegas. I think that there's more room to like margin for error going under there. You got anything, expert? Will B: I would say I'm in between y'all two. I'm at 9.4. So Jackson's at 9.1 and you're at 9.5. I'm right between you guys at 9.4. right there. Jackson: Right on it. Right on it. Alright, you wanna move let's move on to Oregon? Davis: Yeah. Jackson: All right, Oregon win total is at ten and a half. Obviously coming off a a big year, making the college football playoff. Returning Dante Moore and they have big, big expectations in Eugene this year. Davis, you're right on it. I'm yeah, right. Davis: Yeah, they just haven't been able to get over the hump recently. I guess they they were were they undefeated going into the Big Ten Championship last year? Will B: No, that was a prior year. Jackson: No, they don't play in the Big Ten Championship. Will B: And they didn't make it to the Big Ten Championship Davis: Right, yeah. Will B: last year. Lost one game. Jackson: Ohio State, Indiana. Will B: Yeah, they lost to Indiana week six in October. And Indiana. Davis: Okay. Jackson: Yeah, and then Ohio State Davis: Yeah. And Jackson: and Indiana, they Ohio State wasn't undefeated going into that game. Were they both undefeated, Ohio State and Indiana? Yeah, they were, right? Will B: That's correct. Yes, about nine and and then Morgan was eight one obviously missing missing me a victim challenge us Jackson: Yep. So th they add a decent portal class. the non cons not crazy. Boise stayed at home, at Oklahoma State. I know Oklahoma State's got a new new coach, new quarterback, a lot of new moving pieces there, but I don't think that's a game that I would feel threatened to lose if I were Oregon. Will B: You don't think the Oklahoma State's coming for revenge after losing by 70 last year? Jackson: Yeah, d they did get smoked last year, but I just think Davis: Yeah. Jackson: it's a it's a talent thing. I mean, North Texas had a good Davis: Yeah. Jackson: a good team last year. I know a lot of those guys are are in still water now, but Beaten Oregon Davis: Yeah. Jackson: is is a different animal. So no, I I don't think I don't think Oklahoma State's a serious threat. Will B: Yeah, I agree. I don't give him much of a chance. Davis: Yeah. And I think when you like look take a look at who they lost last year, they did a really good job at replacing them. lost Dylan th Thineman safety to the first round of the NFL draft this past year and then immediately replaced them with probably the top transfer safety in the class, Coy Peric. and then Also lost Kenyon Sadiq, tight end, another first round pick. but I really like the weapons that they have. DeCorian Moore, five-star freshman, had a pretty good li year last year, obviously returning. they'll get back Evan Stewart, who was the like number one ranked wide receiver like two years ago, but missed all of last year, due to a I think it was ACL or s some Will B: He broke his leg. Davis: knee injury, I believe. Yeah. so missed all of last year. But Will B: But he was, this is his fourth year actually. Stewart's fourth year, two at AM. So he's an older player actually, but potential, hasn't lived up to that potential yet. Davis: Yeah. And then also, I mean, even though they lost Kenyon Sadiq, there's an argument to be made that their other tight end, Jamari Johnson, is actually better than he is. Probably not as athletically gifted. but I believe I believe he outproduced Kenyon Sadiq last year, or it was at least it was at least close. so really like the weapons around Dante Moore. You know, Dante Moore has the second best odds to go number one overall in this upcoming class. I have elite defense with Amari Washington and Mateo Uyangalale. Two great D linemen and edges there. so I mean, y'all heard it from me. I'm I'm all aboard the the Dan Lanning train for this year. Jackson: Yeah, it's a it's a veteran team. It's they have all the pieces to do it. They have all the pieces to do it. It's just can they finally get over the hump and in and raise the trophy. I don't I don't have a great argument against Oregon. I know I'm slightly under. I think that's just because of the at Ohio State is one that I think they'd probably slip on and then that leaves you one game, Margin I guess like one game that you can lose. you have Ohio State on the road, and then that puts you at eleven if you lose that. So there's not any more there's no more room for error after the Ohio State game. You got Washington at home, I think they'll probably win that game. Michigan at home, I think they'll probably win that game and at USC. All those games I have in the sixty sixty, seventy percent range, but that's probably why mine shows a slight lean to the under. but yeah, I'm high on this Oregon team too. I think they're gonna be Davis: Yeah. Yeah. Jackson: They're gonna be very good and and we'll see. We'll see if they can finally finally get it done. Are they they're they've never won a title, right? Davis: And Will B: the only championship was against Davis: yeah, the big O. Will B: Auburn, Cam Noon, that was the last time they were in the national championship. Jackson: Right. I know they played in that one and they've they're always close, I feel like. They just never Davis: Yeah. Yeah. Will B: Yeah. Jackson: won the whole thing. Davis: Well, I I think the biggest problem with them in their big losses, like the big game losses has been the trenches. last year Indiana got dominated up front. two years ago. Will B: in also Ohio State. Davis: Can't remember off the top of my head who they Ohio State, yeah. And I believe that it was Will Will Rogers, my quarterback for Ohio State, just had all day long to throw. So I I think that, you know, in if you look at the past losses, big game losses, it's been the trenches is where they're lacking. And I think that they've made a concerted effort to to address those concerned. So really like their D line. I think I think Mateo Uyangalale top three D end in the nation this year. brought in other transfers at the O line. So I mean that I've I've hit on it many times. that's why I like them as my pick for this year. It does say that I'm slightly under it has 10 point five and I have it as ten point four two. The odds are like minus two hundred for the under or something like that. So while I might be like slightly under, I'd still take the over with Oregon and just get the additional odds that are in my favor with that. Will B: I think you also met Will Howard. I Will Rogers is the Mississippi Davis: Will Howard, yeah. Will Rogers, yeah, Mississippi State shout out. Jackson: Well Howard. Will B: State. I think you brought up the points, how they replaced the players well. I'm a little down on Oregon. Actually, me and Jack are not the exact same win total, the 10.02. They lost both OC and DC. Will Stein to Kentucky. And their DC is now the head coach at Cal. So I think that is a big loss because I mean, it's just hard to the continuity there. But Dan Lanyon in the last two seasons is 23 and one in the regular season. I mean, he's lost one regular season game and that was against Ohio State. And then his other two losses in last two years have both been Indiana. So he's only lost to the eventual national champion. So he doesn't lose games he shouldn't lose to, and he doesn't play Indiana this year. like Jackson said, the only one that I think he might lose to is Ohio State. Davis: So you saying you down on Oregon this year? Will B: Well, based on my numbers, yeah, I 10 wins, but yeah, down somehow compared to Vegas. But I mean, I like Oregon, but I think they lose to Ohio State and slip up somewhere. I guess it's what my odds are saying. I mean, that game at Washington, Davis: Yeah. Will B: it's actually they're hosting Washington, but I think Ohio State and then I'm high on Nebraska. So we'll see if Nebraska can do something. Jackson: There's a Davis: I on Nebraska. Jackson: there's a lot of potential there's a lot of potential slip ups on the schedule. I mean at USC is a potential slip up. Nebraska who Will is high on, I would not call that a slip up playing them at home, but hey Davis: You can't trust the experts apparently. You can't trust the experts. Jackson: Yeah. At Illinois, at Ohio State, Will B: We'll see. Jackson: Washington, Michigan. I mean, y there there's slip up games all hidden in there, but yeah, I see where I w I see what you're Will B: don't have them winning by the way. Jackson: saying. I'm not down on Oregon, but I think ten wins is a is a reasonable number for them to attain. Will B: Yeah, I mean I got him at 10, the exact same as Jackson. Davis: Yeah. You wanna just go to Indiana? Jackson: What did you say? Davis: I said you wanna just go to Indiana just to like Jackson: Yeah, we'll skip down to Indiana. All right. The defending national champs, Indiana. So I have him as strong under Davis. You're under kind of right on the number there. Non con is non existent. Davis: And they and it's continuing to be non existent. I mean they they're just canceling all their non conference games and scheduling as Will alluded to, I Will B: cakes Davis: think it was the the Camels or or the James Will B: Yeah. Davis: Clemens Jets. Jackson: Yeah. I mean, the thing with Indiana is I mean, they're gonna be good. obviously you lose Mendoza, Heisman Trophy winning quarterback. You bring in Josh Hoover from TCU. That's to me the biggest question. The portal class, they lost a good bit, but their portal class I think addressed most of their needs pretty well. I mean Signetti did it last year, he did it the year before. A lot of these portal classes he's bringing in is doing a very good job. specifically targeting and addressing their needs. They're good fits. They're not just paying a buttload of money for these random Davis: I I would also set I would also add that he does a good job of of bringing in like age and experience. Jackson: Yeah. Right. That that was kind of the storyline Davis: I mean there's there's something Jackson: of that team last year was the age the the Davis: Yeah. Jackson: twenty five year olds against the eighteen year olds. But hey, it worked. Davis: Yeah. And they're and they're they're bringing they're bringing in NFL players now. Jackson: Yeah. Will B: Yeah, was about to say his lawsuit class is also really good. He's bringing back two more guys that on training camps with all these lawsuits. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah, I mean Davis: Yeah, so Jackson: I think my strong under here is for years and years and years, and I I I don't want to make this a an Alabama podcast by any means, but Bama did it with the target on their back. Davis: I won't let ya. Jackson: Doing doing being winning games when you're the underdog is a lot different from winning games when you're the champ and everyone's got your name circled on their schedule. I don't I'm not saying they can't do it. But I I don't know if they can. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: so that's kind of where my under comes from. And also, there's a lot of question marks with Hoover. I mean, he did fairly well at TCU, but it's a new quarterback, a new system. You just never know how that's gonna turn out. So that's where my under comes from. I think the word strong in front of under for me is maybe a little bit of a stretch. I would say I'm slightly under on Indiana, but They got some tough games. I mean, go ahead. Davis: I I think the the sorry go ahead. Jackson: I was just gonna say, you you travel to Nebraska. I mean, some of these road games, Nebraska at Michigan, at Washington, and then you got USC and Ohio State at home. and like I said, playing on the road when you're when you're the team to beat is is gonna be a different animal than than what they've experienced the last few years. So we'll see. We'll see if they can get it done. Davis: Yeah. I will say you l you lost two receivers to the NFL draft, Omar Cooper in the first round, Elijah Surratt in the in the I think it was day three. you Will B: room. Davis: did a pretty good job of replacing them with Nick Marsh from Michigan State. He was one of the top receivers available. You bring back Charlie Becker, who, you know, arguably was the best receiver on that team last year. so Really like the weapons around him. Brought in Turbo Richard from Boston Boston College. I think the the most interesting storyline is going to see how Josh Hoover fits into that system. I I I like Josh Hoover, the talent. I mean he was kind of a gunslinger. had twenty nine touchdowns, thirteen interceptions, which I think if you're pushing the ball down field, you're taking chances like interceptions can be excused. But I think it's a very different playstyle than what Fernando Mendoza brought to that team last year. So it'll be interesting to see how that team looks from a, you know, does Josh Hoover kind of try to confine himself and and play it more safe? And does that, limit shots down the field, or do they kind of open it up and just live with the mistakes? So I think that that's really interesting to to see unfold. But I think I did have as like a s slight under. but I mean it's yeah, not by much. So I I like the odds, probably wouldn't touch it. Jackson: Yep. Well, where you got Will B: I have them first. I also have them at 10.2, but I have them first. think Jackson: Okay. Will B: unlike Oregon, you bring back your OC and DC and this will be year 10 and 11 for Mike Shanahan and for Brian Haynes as the DC. And I think both of them are destined to be coaches soon, but I think you're able to pay up a lot of money to retain those two guys. And I think just again, Indiana was a machine last year. I think he can plug and chug players with that coaching staff. And I think, yeah, Josh Hoover, mean, his issue was just mistakes while like downfield. took some chances. I think under this coaching staff, I think that's going to be like drained out of them. I think he's going to be just a efficient quarterback. mean, Mendoza, I think had two games above 250 passing yards. You're not really asked to do a lot. I mean, that O-line's... probably the best in the country. think you just continue to do the machine. Just Josh, you just can't make mistakes. I think you're, you might be a repeat right here, but. Jackson: Yeah, it's good point. Good point. All right. Davis: You stampin' it? That sounds like that sounded like a Will B: Like... Davis: conviction take from you from from the expert. Will B: I guarantee. I mean, I don't want to doubt the guy. I since IUP, I'm not even sure what school that is. He's brought both OC and DC, IUP to Elon, it could be the camels. There's a lot of camels out Davis: That's the camels. That's that's the camels. Will B: there. But yeah, 10 straight years of the same OC and DC, mean, they are running a machine. I think Joshua Rubel will just become part of the machine. So I'm close to stamping that as a repeat. them being ranked six in the AP vote after just winning the national championship is crazy to me. And I think Charlie Becker is the best Jackson: Disrespectful. Will B: receiver. And then I think that Marsh is also, I mean, I've seen them projected late first round. So you might have two projected first rounders. Davis: You're you're gonna have to put a you're gonna have to put a conditional on best receiver. You best receiver on the team? Will B: Yeah, yeah, sorry. Yeah, sorry. Best receiver. And in terms of last year, like he showed to be might be better than Cooper is what I'm saying. Not best receiver. Davis: Okay. Okay. Okay. This this is a Big Ten podcast. I was I was hoping you weren't saying best receiver in the Big Ten. We're gonna we're probably gonna never invite you back again. Will B: Yeah, best receiver on the team and yeah, I know who the best receiver is. Jackson: All right, Penn State. Will B: So, yeah. Jackson: Obviously, a lot of new faces on campus. James Franklin out the door. Matt Campbell comes in the door. over under is set at nine and a half. Davis, we are both strong unders. you wanna explain yourself? Davis: Yeah, that line that line was higher than I thought it'd be. and I think that they were pretty even odds both sides if I had to if I remember correctly. So that was definitely surprising. I mean you hit on it. It's it's a different team than it was last year. I think you brought in I think there's seven expec projected starters that are transfers in. And sit on the offense and then six on the defense. So a lot of new talent there. You're gonna have to replace the two-headed monster at in the running back room with Kaychon Allen and Nick Singleton going to the draft. you also lose Drew Aller, who obviously didn't live up to the hype preseason, but bring in Rocco Beck. from Iowa State. So he's one of those one of those quarterbacks that followed his coach. I don't know. I I I don't think the talent is is up there with a typical Penn State team. I know it's mostly Iowa State players, but that nine and a half seemed pretty high. Jackson: I agree. I I think it's a different roster, but last year Penn State had a lot of these one score games that went the wrong way. bring in a lot of the Iowa State guys. Rocco Beck, I like Rocco Beck. He's I think he's a good quarterback. I Matt Campbell's a good coach. Looking at the schedule, I think I can maybe figure why this is priced or not priced, where the total is where it is. You have these two road games right here with Michigan and Washington. And those are probably your two presumed losses. And then USC really is maybe the only other game that I would kind of be worried about. Maybe at Maryland here. Davis: The schedule breaks out f pretty pretty nice, I will will admit that. Will B: Yeah. Jackson: Yeah, I think the I think the numbers there because of the schedule. I don't think it's because people are necessarily high on Penn State. I just think they got a they caught a a nice break with the schedule. and they may sneak Davis: Yeah. Jackson: up there in the rankings towards the end of the year with you know these three I'm not gonna say cupcakes, Davis: Yeah. Jackson: but easier opponents on the back half of the schedule. obviously Davis: Yeah. Jackson: Washington and Michigan will be tough on the road, but everything else on that I don't I don't think I would I would take Penn State to win every other game on this schedule. I mean you have US C USC's coming all the way across the country to come to Happy Valley to play Penn State. So that's Davis: Yeah. Jackson: to me the only other game that I would be seriously concerned about. Maryland if Maryland's playing for something, a bowl game, that may be a game to watch out for Will B: their coach might be gone by then. Jackson: but yeah. They c they Davis: Yeah. Jackson: could be on quit watch by then. I mean, Maryland could have tossed in the towel at this point in the year, so They could they could Davis: Yeah. Jackson: hit get the over and hit hit ten wins, but I'd probably stay where I'm at and remain Will B: Yeah. Jackson: strong. Pretty strong. Davis: So the thing that kinda stuck out to me was I I I've referenced the S P plus model a few times on the podcast so far and I mean the season hasn't started yet. There's not a whole lot of data to go off of. This is one of the better references. It's you know, year over year it's one of the references that has the greatest like residual resemblance from preseason to postseason. So that's one reason that I like to like to use it. with that being said, Penn State is seventeenth in the country according to this model. Washington is eighteenth. Michigan is fifteenth. Iowa is twenty second. All of those teams are at like seven and a half win total. then you have Penn State at at nine and a half. So I know that we kind of you know, wrote that off as as a scheduling oddity with their their easier schedule, but still nine and a half is a is a is a too Jackson: A lot of wins. Davis: tall of a order for me. Jackson: Yeah, ten win Will B: Yeah. Jackson: season is a tall task, especially first year head coach, a lot Will B: Yeah. Jackson: of new faces, new roster. It'll be tough. It'll be tough to get to ten wins. Davis: That whiteout game's gonna Will B: I think Davis: go crazy this year though. Will B: Yeah, it'll probably be USC. Davis: I don't know if y'all got the reference. Jackson: I got it now. Davis: I don't think Will got Will B: I don't get it. Davis: the reference. Come on, you need to get with the times, dude. That's Jackson: like I was tr I was trying to act like I knew what you were talking about and I'll I was have no idea. I have no idea where the what they where they came from. No, I got it now. Davis: Yeah, if y'all don't know what I'm talking about, just look up Penn State Bust and that'll that'll bring up all the headlines. Will B: Yeah... Jackson: Yeah, I got it now. Will B: Yeah... Yeah... Jackson: We'll see. We'll see. Will B: Yeah, flew over my head. But I actually had Penn State winning nine games, which is the fourth highest I had on my, after doing these exercise, which I think is like y'all have been mentioning the schedule. just, cause they're definitely not a top 14, but they avoid the all three tier one teams. And like Jackson said, I mean, that USC game's key. I mean, you win that game and there's really only two other teams that could probably beat you. It's at Michigan, at Washington. And then you might be looking at a 10 and two playoff hopeful. for a team that might not deserve it or nine and three hope for a chance. But I think it's a very misleading, probably ranked 16th wins all said and at the end the year. Misleading, but a good year for the new coach in Campbell. Jackson: Yeah. I think you start if you beat USC you're starting six and So Will B: Yeah. Jackson: think yeah. I mean th they could get there, but have to win that one at home. I think that US C game is pivotal for them to to hit that total over. But all right, Michigan. Sorry I didn't get your joke, Davis. I couldn't sniff it out. Davis: Hm. Hey yeah. Jackson: I was thinking I I was waiting, I was waiting on that one. All right, Michigan. New head coach Kyle Whittingham comes over from Utah. he brings his O C Jason Beck and they also have a new D C is Jay Hill. Bryce Underwood obviously returns at quarterback and Yeah, what do you all think? Davis: I would say that it's an immediate step up from the coaching. I think Sharon Moore was way in over his head. not just from a coaching standpoint, but probably probably elsewhere too. so I do like the the coaching, what they got there with Kyle Whittingham. Always had a good squad out there at at Utah. I mean, this team just completely rides on the back of Bryce Underwood. don't think he necessarily lived up to the hype last year. kinda very inconsistent so they do return ten starters on offense, which is, you know, very impressive in today's age, considering Transfer Portal NIL and then also a new coach. I think that the only starter that they lost was Justin Haynes, Justice Haynes. Jackson: Yeah. Davis: to Georgia Tech. so definitely bring back a lot of production there. Offense wasn't great last year to begin with though. So not sure if that's just you know 10 returning, how much does that mean when the the production wasn't great last year? all that to say however the defense is pretty good they brought in I think top three edge from the transfer portal, John Henry Daly, who followed Whittingham from Utah. and then also have some other other talent like Jair Hill, Zeke Bailey. so like the defense, just a lot of question marks on the offense in my my opinion. And I don't think that I'm I don't think I'm sold on Bryce Underwood yet. Jackson: Yeah, I don't Will B: Yeah. Jackson: think I'm sold on Bryce Underwood either. I mean, you get looking at the schedule, you also get the three headed monster with Indiana and then you got at Oregon and at Ohio State. I don't think they'll Will B: Andy by Oklahoma. Jackson: win any of those Go ahead, well, sorry. Will B: Sorry, and you play Oklahoma. Jackson: Right. And you play Oklahoma at home. I don't think they win any of the the Big Ten games. and then I don't I got Oklahoma beating them, I think, at home. So that's kind Davis: Yeah, I got Oklahoma one in too. Jackson: I c I think I have Michigan winning the games that they should probably win when you look at the schedule. and maybe even slipping to one of these teams on the road and then losing the games that those I guess you could say the toss up games that are fifty fifty against like Ohio State, Oregon, Indiana and then Oklahoma. I just I don't see them them winning any of those big ones. So for that reason. Davis: For that reason you're out. Jackson: Sound like a shark tank guy. Davis: We got we Will B: Yeah. Davis: got Kevin O'Leary and we got the expert on the pod today. Will B: I think I'm the lowest at every one. have Michigan at 7.73. I guess Jackson has a 7.6. But yeah, Jackson: Yeah. Will B: I them losing to those four games you just mentioned. But I think for Bryson, I think you just give him a free pass because like Davis, mentioned, I think Shroom Moore, that's a, I think you him a free pass similar to how you give a number one overall player a free pass similar to Trevor Lawrence with Urban Meyer first year. You just give them. incompetent coaching, just kind of, this is your one kind of mindset. But yeah, they have the toughest schedule in the Big Ten, I believe. So we'll see. So I'm giving him a free pass. Davis: I w I would say that Michigan I would say that Michigan did not give Sharon more a free pass Will B: No, but you gotta give, he doesn't get one, but you give Underwood one. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: All right. USC Another typical USC team. Jordan Maiava comes back at quarterback. Lincoln Riley fifth year, I think. which is kind of crazy. They do add Gary Patterson on the defensive staff, which I thought was interesting. over underset at eight and a half. We're both under. Davis: I would say that this is one that if I would have like guessed what I would have done prior to actually going game by game, I would have probably said over. but it comes out as an under to me. So probably not a strong under there. I do like Jaden Maiava, but you do lose talent at the receiver position with Mikhail Lemon going first round to the Eagles and then also lost to Kobe Lane, I think on day two, who, put up I mean, it was had a very good year with USC last year. so I think there's a question mark with the the receiver room. you do bring in the I think highest rated five star tight end since Eric Gilbert. in Mark Bowman. pr pretty Jackson: Still your cousin? Davis: yeah, pretty cool last name. Will B: Yeah. Davis: but yeah, I mean offense should be fine. I can it be as explosive as it usually is with the question marks at the weapons. I guess we'll see, but I do like Jaden Maiava. Jackson: Yeah. I mean It's it's gonna be a pivotal year for Lincoln Riley, I think. All of his teams have looked fairly similar. in the schedule, again, I know I've been mentioning these schedules over and over and over, I feel, but at Indiana, they're not winning that game. I don't think they're beating Ohio State. I don't think they're beating Oregon, and I don't even know if they're gonna beat Washington. And then you have right here, I would say USC Davis: It's fun. Jackson: Go ahead. Davis: I'm gonna go a different route than you and I'm gonna say that they're gonna win a game that they're not supposed to. I don't know who it's gonna be. Ohio State, Indiana, or Oregon. I think they win one of those games. But but they're gonna l they're gonna Jackson: I think you'd have to if if they're gonna win one, I think it's gonna be one at home. Davis: lose like a bad game that they shouldn't lose. They're gonna give up like fifty two to like Malik Washington at Maryland or something something crazy like that. So I was a slight under. I I think eight and a half is a is a great line. I think there's just a lot of volatility game to game, which is very typical with a a Lincoln Riley led squad. Jackson: Well and another thing about these like somewhat mediocre teams in the Big Ten, when I'm like picking their schedules and their overs and unders and wins and losses, look at I mean, you go at that's a long flight at Penn State. Will B: Yeah. Jackson: You gotta go to Penn State and then you go all the way to Rutgers is another long flight. So I don't know. I think like you said, Davis, I think if they slip it's gonna be Possibly right here to Penn State if you could call that a slip, or maybe to Rutgers. One of these long, long travel games is where Will B: Yeah. Jackson: I think one of these big ten schools some of these big ten schools will slip. Davis: Yeah, th they're gonna get blessed with a eleven AM kickoff on the East Coast. Or I guess twelve AM kickoff on the East Coast. It's gonna be at eight pm eight AM body clock. Jackson: Yeah. Probably. Will B: You also got to think about weather when you go to these Big Ten schools, Jackson: Right. Will B: these normal Big Ten schools or the older Big Ten schools like Penn State. Jackson: Right. Will B: mean, it's getting cold in Wisconsin. It's already getting close to snowing in late October. Yeah, I mean, that's not a fun game for Southern Cal team. Jackson: Yeah. Right. At Indiana in November. Yeah. It'll it'll be tough. Yep. So we're we're all under, right? Will you under? Will B: Yeah, I'm in between y'all again for this one. I think I've been in between every single one between you two besides, I think, Penn State. Jackson: We go, good balance. Davis: I w I would say that I'm an under but I'm a I'm a like I I think I like the over more and the under kinda surprised me when I went through this exercise. I think I just really like Jaden Maiava. but I probably wouldn't touch it either way. Will B: Yeah, think you guys, Nell's first podcast mentioned, talked about who's not like a top three odds to be the first overall pick. I think my pick would be this USC quarterback. Everything goes right. think he has a chance to go first overall. I think he's the kind Jackson: Yeah, solid pick. Will B: of, yeah, so think he has the chance. I mean, he's got the schedulers in the conference. He's got the coach in terms of offensive, Jackson: Yeah, the coach. Will B: offensive guru. I mean, he's gonna put up numbers Jackson: Yeah. Will B: and I think, I mean, if you have a dream season, you beat Ohio State and everyone's talking about him as the Heisman and maybe first year role pick. Jackson: Yep, he's definitely in the in the seat to be able to do that for sure. All right, moving on. Iowa. Will B: I'm higher than you by a good bit Jackson almost two games. I got 8.13. I think the schedule is manageable. You have one of the three tier one schools and And then, like, the schedule's not hard. Minnesota, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Purdue. Those are the four worst teams right there. And then you have out of conference, Northern Davis: Yeah. Will B: Illinois, Iowa State, Northern Iowa. I mean, that's seven. think you're at minimum seven games right there. And then you, yeah. Ohio State, Washington. Jackson: I don't know. I I think some of these road games I mean I'll count the road Davis: Th th that's what I did too. I was like I saw the seven and a half and I was like, There's no way I'm gonna be over here. And then I went through the schedule game by game and I ended up being on the over. I just didn't realize that how well that schedule broke out. Will B: Yeah, that's as good as it's get. Davis: I mean, it it's just a Jackson: Yeah, I think Davis: typical Iowa team. They're gonna fly under the radar, they're not gonna beat anybody they shouldn't, they're gonna beat everybody that they should beat, and they're gonna be a boring offense and Kirk Ferenc is gonna coach another year. I got I got a question for Jackson: Yeah. Davis: y'all. How how many years do y'all think that he's been the coach? What year do you think this is? Will B: 99 Jackson: I'm gonna say twenty eight. Will B: let's do your 99 he took it 99 so I guess 27 so he's Davis: I will What? Since ninety nine? Will B: yeah he took the job December 99 I believe so this is what your 27 I think so Davis: No. This is Jackson: Say twenty eight. Davis: year twenty two. Year twenty two. Jackson: twenty two. Davis: Yeah. You know, there's a there there's a quarterback battle. Will B: Whoa. Jackson: This is twenty-eighth seas this This is twenty-eighth season. I just said that because my notes said twenty-eight, so Will B: I thought it was 28 too. Yeah, 1999, 28th season. So your fun fact is just wrong. Yeah, so me and Davis: Okay. I got I got Jackson: We'll see. Yeah, twenty eight. I g Yeah your fun fact is horrible. Davis: Wait, what? Will B: Jackson knew the answer. He Davis: Ha ha. Will B: started 1999, 28th season. So me and Jackson both had the right answer to your fun fact. Davis: No, that was with the s that was with the school. That was with the school. You have to look up when he became the head coach. Jackson: yeah, maybe. Will B: Well, let's look at it. Davis: You better Jackson: All right. Davis: not cut this when I'm right. Jackson: No, I'll leave I'll leave I'll leave I'll leave some of it. Davis: yeah, say Will B: I Davis: it. Will B: think he's head coach. Davis: Head coach since head coach since twenty two thousand five. Will B: No, head coach since 99. They've had two head coaches since 1979 with Hayden Frye, who was there 20 years. Jackson: All right. All right. Another one thing to note about Iowa, I mean, Davis touched on it. I think it's gonna be your typical Iowa team. Strong offensive line, strong defense, run the ball, pound the rock. But one thing I did note when I was prepping for this was last year the quarterback Grunowski, I think it was his name, he ran Will B: Nelsky. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: the ball yeah, he ran the ball a lot in the red zone. which helped they were like can't remember what number like what ranking it was, but they were pretty efficient when it came to red zone scoring. So I think that's something to watch possibly with these next two guys. I don't think they profile I don't think they're very similar to Gronowski in terms of like being a runner. So I know scoring points for Iowa's can be has been an issue in the past. So we'll see if that we'll see if that makes a difference. Davis: I I do wanna concede after Will B: Yeah. Davis: looking it up I was wrong and I was I was adamant that I was right and and and that's why I should always Will B: Was it Kyle Whittingham you were thinking of? Davis: defer to the expert. That's why we brought him on the pod. Will B: Yeah, I believe. Davis: He's the big the big he's the big twelve expert. Will B: Big 10 by the Jackson: This is the big ten, Davis. Will B: way and I believe 2005 was Davis: God. Will B: you were thinking of Kyle Whittingham who joined Utah in 2005. But I have a Davis: Yeah, that's Will B: fun question. Okay, so after Kyle Woodingham has left Utah to Michigan, who is the longest 10-year coach or who's second and third? Obviously, Iowa's coach is first, but who do you all think is second and third in FPS? Jackson: Second, third Davis: Can we get the years? Jackson: longest tenured. Will B: Yeah, so... Davis: I'm gonna go I'm gonna go North Dakota State's head coach. Does that count? Will B: I was not counting him, so I'm not even sure Jackson: FPS. Will B: about him. number two took over in 2007, and number three took over in 2009. Jackson: Two thousand seven, two thousand nine? Will B: I will say the 2007 one you're probably not going get. I'll just give that one to you. It's Air Force's head coach Troy Callahan, 2007. But number three is a very prominent head coach. mean, he's been there since, I mean, guess it was at 24, this is 24th Jackson: Does Will B: season. 2009. Yeah. Jackson: You said two thousand nine conference? Will B: I might give it away, but I'll say it. Davis: No, don't give us a conference Jackson: Will I give it away? Davis: yet. Power four, power fower four? Will B: Powerful, I mean, yeah. Davis: Alright, don't give us a combat Jackson: I really want to get this. Davis: yet. Yeah. Give us Will B: y'all wanna hear like how good of a hand y'all Davis: a give us give us an obscure hint. Will B: Okay. He's been with the program since 2003, I believe. So he took... Davis: That doesn't help us. Will B: You said you wanted to obscure, I can't just tell you the conference or... I mean... Davis: I don't know. Will B: I mean you guys are gonna be mad Jackson: Same. Will B: when I tell you the answer. That should be a hint. Davis: Dude, is it Dabo? Will B: It's Dava. Jackson: it is Dabo. It is Dabo. That's right. Davis: let's go let's go. Will B: Yeah, so 24th year Clemson's kind of crazy. I feel like he's been there like 12 years. Jackson: That is wild. Davis: That is wild. That's why we bring you on the pod, Will. Will B: Yeah, fun fact. Jackson: I like your fun facts. Will B: Thanks. Davis: Yeah. Will I got a Jackson: Keeps us on our toes. Davis: question for you. or maybe maybe a question for both of y'all. Quarterback battle. Helensky and Will B: Pink brown. Davis: Hank Brown, former Auburn quarterback that was that Will B: Yeah, did you Davis: replaced Peyton Thorne for a quarter and a half. Will B: Did you happen to see their fall camp scrimmage stats from this past weekend? Davis: No, I didn't I didn't you're the expert. Will B: Hank Brown went nine, nine and like 20 for 40 yards and the other guy threw for five touchdowns. I think that quarterback battle is over. I mean, that's the biggest. Jackson: I think Helensky I I don't like I'm not an expert here, but I think it's gonna be Helensky from what I've seen. Will B: I think it's Anderson Alinsky. Davis: Unless he came from Northwestern, right? Jackson: Weak force, I think. Davis: Was it it is wake, you're right. Will B: Yeah, I think he showed out with the split team, first team reps and the false scrimmage and Hank Brown threw for 30 yards while Hunskeet threw for five touchdowns. Davis: Were you at the were you at the scrimmage? Will B: I got video of it. Davis: You were at you were in a different scrimmage? Y you Will B: That was a different one. Davis: missed that scrimmage 'cause you had to go to a different scrimmage? Will B: I was at the camel scrimmage, but I got the... I was watching the camels. Jackson: All right, Nebraska, Will B: Yeah. Davis: Yeah, lead us off. Well they lo they lost Dylan Riola. I know they replaced him Jackson: It was your ear thing went off. Davis: with with Calandria, right? Jackson: Yeah. So Matt Rules in his fourth year. Davis: I mean Jackson: Loose Dylan Riola. Callandry comes in from UNL V. Davis: Who was who was dog water at Virginia and then lit it up at UNLV. So back in the power four, it'll be interesting to see, you know how he how he translates back into the power five conference. They do have some decent weapons, especially with Nazia Hunter, but do have to replace Emmett Johnson, the running back. But I don't I don't have a whole lot else to to mention. Jackson: Should be slightly improved on both sides of the line of scrimmage. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: one thing to note about Nebraska is the schedule is Decent been tougher than it has been, I feel like, in recent years. Will B: Yeah. Jackson: I mean, at Oregon, Washington, Ohio State, you travel decent ways to play Rutgers, you go on the road to Michigan State, which I'm not high on, at Illinois, and you finish it off with Iowa. So I'm kind of right on the number here. Davis were actually both at six five five, which I thought was wild. But yeah, not a whole lot to say about Nebraska. Davis: This is this is one this was one that I like was thinking I'd be under and then did it and I was like I mean I was exactly the same, but I I would have thought that I'd have been under here. I gotta Jackson: Yeah. Davis: I gotta since we're pulling out all the fun facts here, Matt Rule has played seventy games against teams with a winning record. Do y'all know what his record is? In fo in college, seventy Will B: missed the first part of the question. Davis: games. Jackson: Yeah, same. Matt Rule, you said? Davis: Yeah, Matt Rule, seventy games versus teams with the rent winning record. What is what is his record? And this dates back to to his temple days. Will B: Didn't you have, you had a tie, Jackson: Ten and sixty. Will B: I was gonna go 18, 18 wins? Davis: Eighteen is the number. Damn, look at you. I don't know. I'm curious what that number Will B: Didn't he have a big win at Temple? Jackson: Big Ten expert. Davis: is at Nebraska, 'cause I feel like they I mean, I don't know. I I was kinda high on them last year and they they didn't I was high on them and then specifically Dylan Rayola and I just Will B: Yeah Davis: was not impressed and I thought that offense was anemic and from the nineteen nineties, so I don't know. Will B: What was that game? get... Jackson: Yeah, I don't think you're upgrading Will B: What? Yeah, I don't think Jackson: at quarterback. So Will B: you upgrade as well. But what was that week one game they lost they should have won? It might have been like a Thursday night game. I can't remember the first game they played. Davis: Yeah, it was like was it TCU? Will B: No, Cincinnati, they did win that game against Cincinnati, but then was blowing Davis: That's who it was. Will B: at Cincinnati. But yeah, I just think they have a bye week before Washington after hosting before hosting Washington. I think they can grab that game. And then I think you're looking at seven wins. I have a, actually have them at seven and half. So, and I think that saves Matt rules a job. Davis: Wow. Will B: I think he's coaching for his life right now. I don't think he makes it six wins. I think they're going to fire him. So I think Matt rule steps. Davis: We didn't even call Matt Rule out as the on our hot seat list, did we, Jackson? Jackson: I don't know if he was a big enough name for us to call out. We had some you had Debor in Davis: That's fine. Jackson: there, Dion, Norvell. Will B: I Davis: But we had the Gibbons with Bill Belichick and and Will B: Nervous. Jackson: Yeah, nor well. Davis: Norvell, yeah. Will B: Yeah, Jackson: Yeah. Will B: I think he coached first life and I think he's gonna surprise someone and I think it's that Washington game just a bi-week hosting must win is kind of what I'm thinking, desperate. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: Yeah, it could happen. Not like terribly down on them, but not high on either, so all right, Wisconsin. Luke Fickle, it's fourth year. I think it's another make or break here. for another head coach, like ten. Davis: We did have Luke Fickle as our one of the coaches, right? Jackson: I don't remember. I don't remember if he was on the hot seat, but he is definitely on the hot seat. this his leash may be like in season firing type deal. I mean, Davis: Yeah. I would agree. Jackson: I don't know how long they're gonna hold on to Luke Fickle. Wisconsin's a program that shouldn't be hovering around a six, six and a half win total. I feel like they've in the past years I feel like, you know teens, two thousand two thousands, twenty tens ish. They've been a solid team, you know, been in and out of the Rose Bowl, played in bowl games, had guys drafted, and six and a half is just not where Wisconsin wants to be. So I don't know if they'll hold on to fickle if if things go south quickly. You go at Notre Dame, get two cupcakes here at Penn State, you get USC. You do avoid Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana. Will B: Yeah, you avoid the tier one teams, but you do have Notre Dame, like you said. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: Yeah. So a little bit of a gift there with the schedule, but I was over, Davis, you were right on the numbers, so I was slightly, slightly over. Davis: I Yeah, I was right on the numbers and I I did just check and and the juice is on the over. So I guess while I'm technically at fair value, I'm under what the the Vegas line is. I just didn't I just question what the talent is on on that roster. looking at that S P plus ranking again, I mean they're behind teams like Minnesota, Northwestern, UCLA, Maryland, like I mean it's it th it's way down there. So I'm lower than what my numbers even or what my predictions even say too. So I would I don't know if I'll go as far to say that Fickle is out mid season, but I I think I'd be surprised if he's there next season. Will B: Yeah, I don't, they didn't win a hook. Davis: And I I don't know. It s six six isn't enough to keep you think they fire up for six? Will B: Yeah, think six is not enough. Yeah, I think you need seven. I mean, they went four and eight last year. Jackson: I don't think six is enough. Yeah. Seven or maybe eight. Davis: I don't yeah, I don't think so either. Will B: They went four and eight last year and didn't win a single game away from home. I mean, I don't know how they survived. Davis: And they return most of their starters I mean I derogatory. They return most Will B: Yeah. Davis: of their starters derogatory. So Will B: Yeah, four and eight starters back. But Jackson: Yeah. Right. Davis: Yeah. So Will B: I think Luke Fickle gets fired and I think the Cincinnati coach also gets fired and I Luke Fickle goes back to Cincinnati. Is my prediction. Jackson: Yeah, that's a yeah, that's it's a good prediction. I would probably agree with you on that. Kinda similar to the Scott Frost situation over at UCF. Will B: Exactly, yeah. Jackson: So all right, let's Davis: That worked out so well. Jackson: let's let's move to a team that Davis and I are both pretty high on. And that's Washington. Davis, you wanna Davis: Yeah. You wan you wanna give the the starting case or you want me to? 'Cause I think this is my my stamp of approval team here. Jackson: Go ahead. Davis: Actually I'll let I'll let you start and then I'll get more into the numbers 'cause I got I got some numbers that I want to get into. Jackson: Okay. All right, head coach is Jed Fish. his third year there, hard to believe. obviously you have Williams coming back at quarterback, which you know Yeah. Davis: Can I can I cut you off real quick? Is it hard to believe because the Debor years have just felt like so long and dreadful or or what? Jackson: Yeah, it has felt it has felt long. not saying he has done a terrible job, it's just been life's been a little different over in Tuscaloosa since since Sabin's left. Since this NIL crap has elevated, honestly, but Davis: Yeah. Jackson: Yeah, You want to give your spiel? Davis: Yeah, I mean I guess I'm about to rant, but if y'all are good with that, that's fine. Jackson: All right. Go on go on your rant, Davis. Davis: All right. Yep. So Jackson touched on coach being there for three years. I think they've gotten better each year. they were nine and four last year, but I really think that that number they were better than what their record suggested. I mean, I r and I also think that this team really rides with Damon Williams. I think he's being underrated based on kind of the shenanigans that he pulled in the portal and while as a college football purist that is unfortunate that you know he signed a contract and then tried to back out of it and all that crap happened. But he's back. I think he was very good as a sophomore. You know, over three thousand yards passing, almost seventy percent completion, twenty five touchdowns, eight interceptions, and that's not even accounting for what he did on the ground. and that was year two. So I'm expecting a year three jump. one of their bigger question marks last year was their offensive line. and I think that they returned I think they returned all five starters and then brought in a a transfer that's projected to start for them. So yes, you're bringing back your returning production that wasn't great last year, but you're still returning production. So it it should I I mean, ideally it would be better. but even if it's the exact same, Damon Williams had a great year last year. and then like I said, I think last year a nine and four record didn't actually suggest how good that team was. they finished top fifteen nationally in EPA, offensive EPA per play, and fifth in offensive success rate. So I know I'm getting very into the weeds with with the numbers, but it's just try to make the case for how I guess confident I am in this over in this over under number. I don't think the schedule is I mean the sket schedule isn't particularly easy, but you do avoid Ohio State and Michigan. it starts out very favorably. and then gets tough down the road. So, you know what? Maybe things start right. They start I mean, I think they could easily start seven or eight and before they go into Penn State, Michigan State, Indiana, and Oregon. So last four games are definitely tough. but I think that the the number that they have here is seven and a half is just pretty crazy to me. So I I love the over here. Jackson: Yeah, I agree. Davis: I love the over by like I mean eight point four two. That's almost a full win. So probably I think out Jackson: You and I both. Davis: of Yeah. I I think la I think when we did the SEC breakdown, it was Oklahoma was my strongest over and they were like point seven over. so Washington takes the cake here with almost a full win over. So all that to say, love Washington, love Damon Williams. Schedule works out well. Gimme the over. Jackson: We're both we're both high on Washington. Will have anything to add or you wanna roll on to Illinois? Will B: Well, I was just going to add that I think Davis: You gonna make the bear case? Will B: it... Well, I'm at eight wins, but a lot lower than y'all. I think the Williams situation with LSU, think it's like you commit to someone in a relationship and then they cheat on you and go off to be in that other relationship and then that relationship doesn't work out. So they try to come back. I just, I mean, if stuff starts getting bumpy, don't, the noise, the outside noise will be extreme. And I think I can see Washington. losing the game they shouldn't lose and I do not think they beat Indiana or Oregon. So I think you gotta, I mean, I haven't had eight wins, but so I don't think they're gonna be as good as. Davis: Did everybody's gonna forget about that when they start Four and going into USA. Will B: I think they need to win USC and they'll forget about it. think USC is the game where they'll forget about it for five minutes. Jackson: I think I think if they clear UFC, I think they beat Iowa at home, they beat Purdue on the road. I would say you beat Nebraska and Penn State and Michigan State. I mean, I guess I just rattled the Will B: You got a 10 and two. Davis: I I think you really I think you go in I think you go into Indiana with like Jackson: One maybe. Yeah. Davis: One or two losses. Will B: I you got two or three losses. Davis: And like you probably don't finish strong, but like by Jackson: I think this is over by what do they need? Davis: then you've already met the like you're meeting the seven and a half by week t like by week nine or ten or whatever that is. Like this is this is this is an easy over for me. And I think you and Jackson: Yeah, same. I agree. Davis: you hit it early. Jackson: Yeah. Will B: I mean I'm still over 0.5 but yeah, it's still an over. The line is too low. Jackson: Yeah. All right, moving on to Illinois. Brett Bielema comes back for a sixth season. Barry Lenny returns for his fifth season. Offensive coordinator. You got a new DC in Bobby Hauk. Hoop. saying that right. Illinois has gone nineteen and seven overall, eleven and seven in the Big Ten over the last few years, which is the program's best two-year stretch since nineteen eighty and nineteen ninety. It's a reset year for for Illinois. turn over a decent amount of players. Lose some guys to the draft. Where are you guys where are you guys leaning on on Illinois? Davis: Yeah, I just take a look at this roster and I just don't see a lot of talent, like even compared to last year. lost Luke Altmeyer, their quarterback, but brought in Caden Hauser from Eastern Carolina or East Carolina. I mean he was pretty good. That was a good pickup, but again, just looking at the talent and I'm I'm not loving it. Jackson: I think the lines of scrimmage are the concern for Illinois. you get a pretty new O line pr and defensive line. I think the defense will be shaky. I think that's gonna be the problem. Now I think the main the question for Illinois is can the offense score enough points to supplement the poor defense? My answer is I don't know. That's why I'm right on the seven and a half number. I don't have a strong lean either way. I just think the numbers pretty accurate. You get a pretty weak non con UAB Duke And I think you win some of these some of these toss up big ten games at home. Purdue, Iowa, I think they could steal Nebraska and then On the contrary, I think you lose a lot of these road games, Ohio State, Maryland, UCLA, which is Davis: Yeah. Jackson: a winnable game, but that's kinda where I stand Davis: I mean you had Jackson: on Illinois. Davis: Yeah, you had four O linemen that left from last year. one of got drafted in the sixth round, the others are on on, you know, ball camps, but I'm I'm just not convinced in what you're replacing them with. I think you're downgrading a quarterback from Cadenhauser or from Altmeyer to Cadenhouser. Seven and a half seemed high. I went the under. Jackson: Anything on Illinois Will? Will B: think this is like a yeah, I think this is Illinois a team like just like Kentucky and the SEC from last year where you just I mean, you can't take for granted but I think they might they might get someone sneak up on someone but I don't think I wouldn't be surprised if you look up and they have eight wins at the end of the season. But I don't I have at seven as well. In between y'all again. Just an average team at best. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: Minnesota. they're they're one of three Big Ten schools that did not spend at least twenty million dollars on the roster. Which I thought was interesting considering they have gone they've had eight win seasons, what, for the last five years. So I think back to your question about PJ Flack, I think he's a pretty pretty dang good coach given what he's doing with talent that he's been given. I'm right on the number here. Davis, you're s you're under. another thing I want to note about the schedule is I feel like all of the games that they're gonna lose are on the road. And all of the games that I think they should win are at home. Like Washington, it doesn't matter if you're playing them at home or on the road, you're losing that game. Indiana, same thing. they did go seven and at home last year and and five on the road. So something worth noting on Minnesota. Davis: Yeah, I had them as a as a Will B: Yeah. I think Minnesota's Davis: strong I was just gonna say I had as a stronger under, but I think I think it had more to do with that I'm higher on some of these other teams that they play, such as Washington, I was over, Indiana I was over, Will B: just I was just gonna say Jackson: Okay. Well, go ahead. Will B: that I think P J Fleck is doing a solid job. I think and like Jackson you mentioned about the NIL, I think Minnesota has just kinda got to the dinner table or but they don't really care to do much more than that. I think they're just content with eight wins here and there. So I think P J Fleck is the Jackson: Yeah, and I think Will B: guy for the job. Jackson: Yeah, and I think they've done Davis: They did return nine guys on the offense and seven guys on defense. So you said they won eight games last year? Right? So Jackson: Yes, I believe so. Will B: Eight eight five Jackson: Yeah. They're bull machines. Will B: with a ball win. Ball win against New Mexico in overtime, by the way. Something I've been seeing a lot of New Mexico hype. I'm not sure if y'all have seen that, but I'm not sure what that's about at all. As they they ranked above Auburn in Davis: I think it's 'cause they think Diego Pavia is coming back to or that's New Mexico State, right? Will B: Yeah, Jackson: need to All right. Maryland. Another another hot seat situation. Davis, we're both we're both strong on the over. any particular reason? or you is Davis: Yeah. Jackson: that just kind of a I mean the the it's a four and a half total. You get Mike Loxley coming back for the eighth season. Clint Trickett is their new offensive coordinator. I thought that was interesting hire. I did not realize they hired him. last year four and eight. Horrible. need to turn things around fast if if Loxley's gonna keep that job. Davis: I can I can see this being a situation where they possibly hit the over and had still fired Mike Loxley like halfway through the season. I I I think that there's a lot of, you know, Under Armour money that are that's going into Maryland right now. so I think that the expectations that they have from a program and support standpoint are much higher than what Vegas is expecting. I do like Malik Washington at quarterback. I think he excelled last year. and I think that that four and a half number is just lower than I would have thought. Jackson: Yeah, that's kinda where my lean was. I think four and a half's just too low. I think Washington is talented enough to where he can win you some assuming he takes that next step, which I think he will, I think he can win you some of those toss up games, that I feel like this schedule is filled with. Rutgers, Illinois, Purdue, Wisconsin, Virginia Tech, UCLA. I mean, I think all these games are I think they could go four and eight. I think they could go eight and four. I Davis: Ooh. Jackson: just think there's a lot of variation with Maryl. I don't know if I'd eight and four. Let me back that up. But I think there's a lot of variation with Maryland and I like Washington. I think he's can be very good. So I'll I'll take him over the four and half. Yeah. Davis: The running back's good too. DeJoun Williams. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah. Davis: I do think that it's it that it's interesting. You know, they bring back eight guys on the offense, eight guys on the defense. I I know that we kind of are trying to like tow the line on, you know, is that necessarily a good thing or is that necessarily a bad thing? I think when you're looking at a bad team that probably isn't able to bring in elite talent and then we have a four and a half total win line, I think that that's obviously a positive there. because, the difference between three, four and five wins could just be continuity. So th that's another reason that I'm in. and then I think a player to look out for isn't Ely, five star player. should be interesting, top five player in in college foot or in high school ranks last year. I think he starts immediately. It'll be interesting to see if that under armor money pays off or not. Jackson: Well, you got anything? Will B: Yeah, I'm right worth Davis at five point three. Again, I think they have a little bit talent, like they I mean five stars pretty crazy, a top ten player in the country. I mean they have money, but I don't I think it's gonna be a mid season firing. I think they might get embarrassed against Ohio State and that's kind of the end and they're they're looking at three wins, three and three and four or three and three at Ohio State. And then just cut it loose after three straight losses. And Virginia Tech, I I don't I think Virginia Tech's probably better than Maryland already. So Jackson: Yeah. Will B: I mean you might be two and Davis: yeah. Will B: four. Davis: Without a doubt. I I think I put those odds at like I know it's a home game, but I think I put it at twenty eighty. Will B: Yeah, it's like. Virginia Tech like fifty five, forty five. Jackson: Yeah, that's probably where I was too. Davis: Maybe maybe not that high, but I do like what they're doing out in Blacksburg. Jackson: All right, Rutgers. we are both overs. I don't know if this was just a win totals too low thing. I wouldn't say I'm particularly high on Rutgers. Davis, are you high on Rutgers or is that just a low win total that you think is they can get to pr fairly easily? Davis: Yeah, I think Rutgers is kind of an interesting case study. I think that they have elite talent, or I know that they have elite talent, which is, not common from a Rutgers team. They have K J Duff, very easily could be a first round pick at receiver next year. put up a thousand yards last year, six six, just a just a stud wide receiver. They bring back Antoine Raymond. the running back put up twelve hundred yards last year. and then they have s some pretty good talent at on the D line with Jaden Burnett and then at safety at Kaj Sanders. So like there are talented pieces there. But are the rest of the pieces there? Are is the depth there? I think there's a lot of question marks. I do like the talent. They do return nine starters. so, at in in in this context, I'm gonna roll with with the elite talent, even though there's question marks at quarterback. I thought four and a half was a little low. and for that reason I'm just gonna go the over. Will B: Yeah, I'm at four point nine five. I mean this I think this is a below average team that I mean, you gotta win your non conference games. I mean UMass is one of the worst teams at FBS. Boston College is the worst team in Power Four. Then you have Howard, so you're already at three. So you gotta find two wins on the rest of the schedule and you played Wisconsin, Northwestern, Maryland. I mean and Michigan State, you just gotta get two of those four. I don't think it's that hard. So I think this might be a really good opportunity if you just think they're like Davis said, the talent. I mean I four and a half is just really low, I'd buy. Davis: Yeah. I think that there's like a concerted effort from like not just football but from like that university that they just overpay elite talent and just like try to find, you know, try to nickel and dime players elsewhere. 'Cause I mean when you look at the football team, KJ Duff and could have gone anywhere, stayed at Rutgers. Jackson: Yeah. Davis: same with the running back. Could have gone anywhere, stayed at Rutgers. This could also be looked at from a basketball standpoint where last year they had two what top five picks, Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper. Will B: Three picks. Jackson: Yeah. Will B: Dylan Harper and Ace Baylon at two and three. Or maybe two and four. Davis: Two and three, top three pick. So So like I I I mean, I think that it's just like a A D decision, athletic director decision, just let's get the stars and let's hope everything else falls in place. Obviously for the basketball team that did not work out. They didn't make the tournament with two top four or five picks. But I th I think it could play out for the football team. Jackson: Yeah, I agree. Alright, Michigan State, new head coach, Pat Fitzgerald comes in over from Northwestern. Lot lot needs to be changed in Michigan State. Davis, you're under, I'm kind of right on the number here. Not much to say here for me. to me it it's too much change in a a short amount of time. I don't think they got a great break on the schedule either. I think they're right on that four five win mark for this year. Pat Fitzgerald. I think he will turn that program around eventually, but I think to do it in year one, especially when you have you go to South Bend, play Notre Dame, for your non con, it's it's gonna be a tall task for them. So that's where I kind of stand on Michigan State. Davis will any any thoughts? Davis: Yeah, I think that there's like a common theme that we can look at across the SEC when we did that. And essentially our consensus was, you know what, the top probably isn't as strong as what Vegas suggests, but that middle tier is very strong. and then the bottom kind of falls out. However, for the the Big Ten, we kinda said, or I said at least, hey, that top is is I'm saying that it's better than what Vegas is saying. That middle is very unknown. And then the bottom I'm actually saying is probably worse than what what Vegas says. and then I look at Michigan State. I just don't don't really see any talent there. I know there's questions at quarterback. first year head coach. Wasn't loving the schedule, so went under here. Jackson: I think depth is is a big question for Michigan State. And I I think once you get to the back half of that schedule with Michigan, Washington, Oregon, and you go at Rutgers to end it, I think depth is going to be a real issue, especially on the defensive side of the ball for Michigan State. So I know I'm right on it, but I just I think the wheels kind of come apart there at the end for them. Davis: And for for what it's worth, Michigan State second lowest S P plus ranking. So just kinda going with that. You know what analytics don't really love Michigan Will B: Yeah. Davis: State going into the season. I don't have a reason to to doubt those numbers either. Will B: I had Michigan State as my second lowest win total at four point five one, so I meant I'm right at it. I the Pat Fitzgerald hire's kinda weird because Pat Fitzgerald got ran out of the sport three years ago from Northwestern for allegations, I guess confirmed allegations that he was ha like he knew about all the hazing in his locker room and players getting like just Doesn't seem like a a good fit. I'm not sure why Michigan State took a chance on that. I feel like Michigan State has some money, but I don't that program I don't know. 'Cause just not a good hire. You got a coach that's been out of the sport for three years and I don't think he was great. I mean he was good at Northwestern, but I mean I don't know. Bad hire I think. Davis: What a what a fall from grace too. Like Michigan State Will B: Yeah. Davis: was you know, I mean, we're not ten years removed from Michigan State playing in the college football playoff back when there was four teams. Jackson: Yeah. Yeah. Davis: So Will B: Yeah, I mean, you know they have the money and Davis: I heard that's that's yeah. Will B: I mean they they had the Mel Tucker situation similar to the Michigan situation. Those Michigan schools just can't lay their hands off their assistance 'cause I mean Mel Tucker cost himself probably, I don't know, a hundred million dollars. 'Cause that contract was voided and I know they're still doing court but I don't think he's gonna get it. So that's a rough way to go to Davis: Yeah. Will B: right after you sign your massive contract extension to make you Like yeah, he was in there for six more years I believe and then he this that same year after the extension that comes out and I mean, I guess I don't I think he was a good coach but Davis: Yeah. And and this kind of leads into a nice segue because Michigan State's quarterback last year, Aiden Childs, is now the northwestern starting quarterback. So this is one that I had the under on. You had the strong under on. Jackson: Yeah. So I'm not high on Aiden Childs. And I'll tell you another thing that kinda led me to go under here. Do you guys know when the bye week is for them? Davis: I'm glad you're our schedule guy. Jackson: Is week two. Davis: Really? That's Will B: Yeah. Davis: terrible. Jackson: By week in week two. So you have South Dakota State, week one, then you have a bye, and then you Davis: Wow. Jackson: obviously the rest of your schedule, you go at Indiana, Penn State, at Michigan State, at Oregon, Iowa, Will B: Yeah. Jackson: at Ohio State, at Minnesota and Illinois. Will B: Yeah. I will say though, that I think that bide really gives them an advantage against Colorado. I mean I still think Colorado's gonna win, but like I don't think Colorado's a good team and now you got a week on Like that's a I mean that's a must win for Northwestern to get that five and a half. Jackson: Yeah, but how how much of do you really need the extra week when you're coming off a full off season and then you play in South Dakota State? I mean like Will B: That's true. Yeah, I mean, you're you're preparing for a team with one week of film. I mean Jackson: Yeah, I don't know. I I think Will B: Yeah, that sucks. Jackson: a week two by is tough. I mean, by Davis: Yeah. Jackson: the time you get down here to to these last five games, I mean you go at Oregon and then you go immediately Iowa and then you travel to Columbus to play Ohio State. I mean, I just I think this team's gonna be just beat to shreds by the end of the year and I think five and a half is way too high of a number for Northwestern, Davis: Yeah. Jackson: so That's why I am strong under there. Another another team that's not spending twenty million on the roster, so keep that in mind too. Davis: They're spending a lot of money on the stadium, I'll tell you that. Jackson: Yeah, that's where all the money went, I guess. Will B: I will say, Northwestern does have a incredible alumni. So, I mean, if you're if you're looking at a team Indiana was the worst program in college football. I think Northwestern has the I mean probably might take the the mantle of worst power of four conference now, but they have the money if they want to use it. I know that new stadium is really nice, but yeah, so I think they can throw some money around in coming years for sure. Davis: It it is definitely worth noting that their O C is Chip Kelly. Jackson: Yeah. I was gonna mention that. Davis: So may maybe maybe he's got some magic left in the bag. That's an interesting hire. Obviously did the stint at Ohio State two years ago and then went to the Las Vegas Raiders last year. So you know what, maybe maybe Vegas is is factoring in that hire more than we are. but that'll be interesting to see how it plays out. Will B: Also note that their Davis: Yeah, yeah. Will B: week one is South Dakota State. That's the preseason FCS number three. I mean that's not a gimmick. Jackson: No, it's not at Davis: Yeah, yeah. Jackson: all. I think I had that like sixty forty. Will B: I don't I wonder where the spread is for that Davis: I think I did too. Will B: game, but I don't Jackson: Yeah, it's not a gimme at all. No. Davis: That might be a is that a week zero game? I think that's a week zero game. Jackson: No, it's it's it's the six it's September sixth, week one. Will B: Yeah. Davis: What did you have at, Will? Did you have at the over? I know you kinda root for Northwestern. Will B: No, I'd it I think I had in between y'all again, at like four point six. I don't think they'd do anything. Davis: So we like the under there. Will B: But again, they have I they just got a new stadium. They just got a six million dollar donation from someone. I mean, they have a top three business school in the country, I think. So Northwestern's minus thirteen and a half, so a little more than I thought. Davis: All right, Jackson: All right. Davis: Purdue. Jackson: Purdue. I have I mean it says over. I don't I I don't know why it says over. Maybe I give gave him a little more of a chance in some of these games than I probably should have. To me this is the bottom of the barrel in the Big Ten. Barry Odem in his second season. Not a lot of belief from me playing in this league. You get Notre Dame non con too. Davis: Yeah, and I I don't have a whole lot to add to this either. the kind of the models and the metrics that I look at had this as the worst all all all of had this as the worst team in the Big Twelve. Big Ten, sorry. so I mean three and a half, didn't love it, took the under. yeah, not a whole lot for me to add. Jackson: Will anything to add on Purdue? Will B: Yeah, I've again in between. I yeah, I'm right in between again. I'm like three point four. I mean, I think they have to I mean, start off one and but that wake force game, I think that's a even matchup. They gotta win that one and have a chance. Jackson: All right. Last but not least, UCLA. Davis: Bob Chesney. We'll see if he can Jackson: Bob Chesney. Davis: Yeah, we'll see if he can replicate the success of Kurt Signetti in get going from JMU to a power power for school. Jackson: Yeah, we're we're both kind of slightly under here. I think you bring in a lot of transfers, obviously, with the new head coach. A lot of unknowns here for UCLA. I'm not super high on them. Don't have a whole lot to add. Don't have a whole lot to say. I think everything kind of speaks for itself when you look at the schedule. I think they'll win some of the easier games. you get San Diego State, Purdue, some of the home games, Wisconsin, Michigan State, you get Nevada in there, those are all obviously winnable. But some of these other games at Oregon, at Michigan, USC obviously in a rivalry game to end the year. You avoid Ohio State, which is big, but yeah, I don't know. I think six ones is probably right. it's priced pretty accurately. not too confident over or under there for me. Davis: Yeah. And I really just think this this rides on how good do you think Nico Yamaliave is. I I don't think he had an impressive season last year. I don't really see any reason to expect a large jump forward. So I'm I'm kinda doubt I guess I'm a Nico doubter, so kinda went under here. not a whole lot else to add though. Will B: think for me, I think this is one of my biggest unders. I'm at like barely five, so I'm a good almost a game and a half. I think the price is California win, San Diego State win. I don't think they get either one of those. I think San Diego State had a top eight defense nationally last year in points per game. That's definitely not a get me. And they did San Diego State did lose a lot of starters on defense. But then I also think Cal, I think their quarterback has a chance to be top five overall pick when he's eligible for the draft and they got a new coach from Oregon. I don't think either one of those Jackson: Kid, good. Will B: games are gimme's and then they also play Oregon, Michigan, which I guess is a little easier, but I don't I don't think this is a great year for UCLA. While I do think they hired the right guy. Davis: Yeah, and this could very well be one of those where the record doesn't necessarily suggest how the program was turned around. They could very well Will B: Yeah. Davis: hit the under and still, you know, play competitively and have, you know, I I guess high expectations going into the next season. Will B: Yeah, I think that's what I'm saying. I think it's gonna be a under but a a promising under for future success. Jackson: and one thing we didn't do for SEC, but I've thought we should do for Big Ten. Who's the champ? Who who who wins the whole thing? Will B: You gotta know my answer. Jackson: I know your answer will. Davis? Davis: Let's hear it. Well, let's get the the expert. Will B: Yeah. Give me Indiana. Repeat. Davis: So I mean Jackson: Davis? Davis: I've been on the I've been on the the Oregon train for a while. I knew this question was gonna come up and I debated do I wanna hedge my bet and choose somebody else and keep my national championship prediction. but what what fun is that? So give me Oregon. Jackson: I was ki I'm hovering between Ohio State and Oregon. Think I think I'm gonna go Oregon. I think I'm gonna go with you, Davis. I think Dante Moore and Dan Lanning finally Davis: Ooh. Jackson: get it done. I don't think they win the title, but I think I think they'll win the Big Ten this year. Davis: Alright. So what what so Will B: I guess my only Davis: I guess I you can go ahead, Will. Will B: Sorry, go ahead. Well I about to ask a qu I think you're quite you're about to ask the same question as I was gonna ask. So you go ahead. Davis: So it it seemed like all three of us were obviously considering Oregon, Indiana, and Ohio State, which is exactly how Vegas has it. Is there a team that can sneak in there that we're not considering? And if there is, who is that team? Will B: I think for me it's Davis: I have my answer ready if y'all don't have one. I have my answer ready. Jackson: I think Davis and I have the same answer. I think it's I think it's Washington. Will B: I mine's US C. yells is Washington, I would assume. Davis: Yeah. I I mean you just look at Yeah. Jackson: Yeah. But I think it comes down to schedule. With with it with a with this many teams in the league, I just think it comes down to the schedule. Davis: Yeah. Jackson: and whoever whoever has the easier schedule between Washington and I'm fine with going USC. I th I like the US C pick over Michigan Michigan pick. I think USC's floor I think they got a pretty high floor. Or sorry, excuse me. I think USC has a high ceiling and they have a good quarterback. Yeah. Will B: Yeah. I mean yeah, I was going for ceiling. Yeah, like what you're saying. I d I Jackson: So Will B: think the floor is higher for Washington. Like US C might go Jackson: Yeah. Will B: seven to five and fire like coach. I I think Jackson: Right. I I I I'm with ya. I I think the ceiling is very high for US C but I think the floor is also Davis: Yeah. Jackson: low. So I think they're a good sleeper pick. I would probably go with Washington. Davis: Yeah. yeah, Wa Washington, yeah, on my pick. I mean, you look at the schedule, dude. You can you can easily be at one loss conservative like I can I feel like I can say conservatively, you can be at one or two losses going into the final two weeks of the season in which you play Oregon and Indiana and at that point, like you're freaking nine and you're you're eight and two at Almost any I'm anything one one weird bounce of a ball and you can win a game you're not supposed to. That that's my pick. Will B: Yeah. I just I think that I mean, like you mentioned, I mean the bigger storylines, but I think that the Williams to L S U situation, I think it has to mean something. In terms of locker room. I mean this guy signed a new contract with the team and then was like, No, L S U offered more which I guess that's college football now. So I mean and he's your starting quarterback, so you gotta you gotta forgive him, but I mean, I think at some point I just imagine Davis: You know how I would take that, Will? You know how I take that? I would take that as a positive. Washington has a quarterback that the entire country was begging to get. And yes, he didn't stay because he wanted to, but He's freaking good. He wants to be there. Will B: Yeah, but I want a quarterback that wants to be there. I want a quarterback that wants to play for the team. That we wanted to get paid and go to LSU. He said Lane Kiffin and this money's better than Jed Fisher. Davis: You know who else didn't want to be on their team and you know who else didn't want to be on their team and won a national championship? Will B: Mm. Davis: Just think for a second. Will B: Hm. When was the when was the decade? This decade? Davis: Yeah. Will B: Lane Kiffum. Davis: What a national chamber show. Will B: I'm sorry, I was thinking in the playoffs. Yeah. But he didn't want to be there. Sorry, I was going off I thought I gonna be a really good point that Lane Kiffin didn't want to be on his team. Jackson: I don't know where you're going with this, Davis, either. Will B: I thought you were making the point that Lane Kiffin also bailed on his team. But Davis: Yeah. I mean, that kinda worked out, but it didn't necessarily work out. Jackson: Who are you talking about, Davis? Davis: I was hoping that one of y'all would Will B: Position. Davis: make my point for me. I don't know. You can cut that or leave it in, I don't Will B: So those are all for nothing. Davis: care. Jackson: That was an open ended question. Davis: I was opening Will B: I Lane Kiffner Davis: a question. Will B: should have been your choice, you just said playoffs and it would have been really good. Davis: This whole time I was thinking, I was like, damn, dude, who should I be thinking Jackson: All right. Davis: about? And I couldn't think of it a s a single time. You can cut that or leave it in, I don't care. Will B: It would have been really good if you had Lang Kiffin. Jackson: All right, Davis, it's time for your favorite game. Davis: Alright. So I'll lead it Jackson: You got a guy? Kick us off. Davis: off. I'll lead it off. So every week we choose one player and then we give five hints. First hint, obviously very hard, and then it gets progressively easier. In today's theme, it being the Big Ten, obviously we'll choose a Big Ten player. We'll make it of this generation since we've been alive, so we'll just say since two thousand. I hope that y'all chose players since then. Since we have a guest, and now we can each do one, we'll divvy up points and then we'll see who wins at the very end. So hint one worth five points. Will B: By points you just mean by guessem? Yeah. Davis: What? Hint one worth five Will B: Sorry, I guess you're going through the rules, how's Davis: points, hint two worth four, hint three worth three, so on and so forth. So with this, you each get one guess per round. You can either guess or you can pass. If you pass, then you get the first guess at the next round. If you both guess, then you then it just Yeah. Will B: So you get five points? I see what you're doing. I see what you're Davis: So like if you if you want to pass then then the other guy can't guess next round. So there's actual a bene there's a there's a benefit to passing now. Will B: Well you just can't guess first next round. Davis: No, if you pass you you get to guess first next round. Will B: Yeah, the other person gets a guess just a second. Davis: Yeah, yeah. Alright. Will B: Yeah. Okay. Davis: So I think we covered it. Y'all ready? Big t big ten player since the year two thousand. I'll read off the the hints. You ready? All right, hit number one. I competed in both football and track and field during my freshman year of college. Will B: So if I guess there's no punishment to guessing? Davis: And remember you can if you guess then Jackson gets to guess first time. Will B: Okay. Well who could suggest we both passed? Davis: Whoever it comes to first. Will B: comes to I'll let's let I'll let Jackson decide and I'll decide after Jackson get Jackson: I don't know, I'll pass. Davis: So Jackson's passing. So do you wanna throw out a guess or do you Will B: Well, so Davis: wanna risk not guessing first next round? Will B: I mean I'm I'm I might guess but I guess you said for track and field. Or track. You said track, right? Davis: Yeah. Football and track and field. Football, track and field, freshman year. Will B: I mean I don't wanna gas a shot put player. Davis: Well let's just hear it. Will B: He d I'm going USC receiver Zachariah Brandt. Davis: Okay. No. All right. Jackson gets the first attempt at hint number two. All right. All Jackson: Okay. Davis: right. Hint number two. In my second career start I accounted for Jackson: Wait, wait, do I get a g do I get a guess at number one still? Okay. Okay. Davis: Yeah. Will B: Unless now okay, no matter. Jackson: Go ahead. Davis: Hit number two, in my second career start I accounted for five hundred two yards of total offense in a win over Notre Dame. Will B: Second career start. Davis: Yeah, second career start. So Jackson gets the first guest. We'll give him fifteen seconds to think over it and then it's then it's open for you too, Will. Jackson: Reggie Bush. Davis: Now. Well Will B: He's at five hundred yards. That's it. That was against Underdam. Davis: Five hundred and two yards and a win over Notre Dame in my second career start. Alright, so Will gets the guest first on this next down. And I think that this is where it starts to get a little easier. Although I played quarterback in college, I was drafted into the NFL as a running back. Will we give you like fifteen seconds before we open it up to Will B: Mm. Davis: tax. Will B: As a running back, that's interesting. You'd think receiver. Usu Jeez, I can't. Jackson: Can't think of his name. Will B: I can't even think about who it would be. So you threw for five hundred yards and then you're a running back in the NFL. Jackson: Five hundred yards of offense. Davis: Accounted for five hundred yards. Jackson: Yeah. I think I got it. Davis: So we'll we'll give you like two more seconds before it's open to Jackson. Or both of y'all. You got anybody? Will B: Can I let Jackson say it and then I come back to me? 'Cause I'm not passing. I don't wanna pass. Davis: I mean y no, no, you're not passing, but yeah. All right, it's open to both y'all. Jackson: Is it Denard Robinson? Is that his name? Cover of NCA Davis: It's Denard Robinson. Hell yeah. Nice. Jackson: 14. Davis: Alright, so I'll read off I'll read I'll read Will B: Damn. I thought he was drafting her a corner. I thought he was a corner. Davis: No, he moved I think he was moved to corner after he was drafted as a running back. But all right, hint number four. I was the cover athlete of NCA 14. That probably would have given it away, right? I hope so. And then I played at Michigan war number sixteen and was nicknamed Shoeless. Shoelace. Cause he didn't wear shoelaces. So Jackson with three points on the board. Will B: Mm. Davis: Nice guess. Will B: Probably was drafted as a cornerback. Davis: Alright, who wants to be the second one? Will B: Was it Jacksonville? Davis: Yeah. All right, Will y er Jackson, why don't you Well, you start us off. Jackson: All right, hit number one. I was selected in the fourth round of the NFL draft. Will B: Calves. Jackson: That's a terrible hint. I just can't I'm so bad with it. Will B: There are thirty-two picks every single fourth round. Davis: All right. Well we'll pass. I'm gonna I'm gonna I'm now I'm gonna guess. I'm gonna guess. Jackson: Okay. Wait, wait, wait, wait. I'll give you the year. Hold on, hold on, hold on, hold on. Will B: Yeah, give the year. Jackson: Yeah, let me give you the year. Hold Davis: No, I'll get it in the air. Dude, Jackson, did you not Will B: You're not gonna get a fourth round. Davis: d did you not do this beforehand? Jackson: I did dude. You mean a toe of the year? Davis: No, d that's too easy. Like no, no, no, that's Will B: Tell us tell us a three year period. Alright, fine, whatever, don't worry about Davis: a fine first hint. That's a fine first hint. That's a Will B: Okay, okay, fine, go. Davis: that's a good first hint. That's a good first hint. Jackson: Okay, okay, just keep this in mind. This is a player that you guys know. He was selected in the fourth round of the NFL draft. Davis: Yeah, that's a that's a good first Will B: I hope it'd be a player we knew. Davis: hint. You gotta you gotta you gotta think. Jackson: Yeah, like it's not some random scrub from like Wisconsin. Davis: Yeah, you gotta think that the first you gotta think Will B: Alright, that's fine, that works. That works. Okay. I like it. Davis: that the first hint is really I went to the big ten, I was drafted in the fourth round, and I'm from the last twenty years. Like that's a f that's a good first hint. All right, so we'll just guessed. I'm gonna guess. we'll pass. Will B: Well okay. Wha wait, can I go open then and let you guess and then I just throw out a random? There's no punishment and as long Davis: What? You pass. Will B: as I go second. What? Davis: You pass. He passed. Will B: Well you also allow for open okay, whatever, whatever. Davis: Well, no, I mean there's if you pass i if you pass what you did and I have a and I guess then you ha now have like a fifteen second window to guess first. So if it's an obvious given, then I can't guess first because I didn't pass. All right, fourth round pick. I'm gonna go with Not gonna go with them actually. Will B: I it's not even worth it. Jackson: J just guess. It's not worse than my first hand I gave you in the in the first episode. That was bad. Davis: Alright, I'm gonna guess Ted Ginn Junior. I think he went like second round. Jackson: Well, you ha are you guessing or no? Davis: No, he passed. Jackson: Okay, okay. Next hit. I spent most of my college career waiting behind players who would become big names in college football. Both players I sat behind won Big Ten Freshman of the Year. Davis: Ooh. So Will you got like fifteen seconds. That's a tough one. Yeah. Jackson: That's a good hat. Davis: That is a good hint. I like that hint. It makes you think. Will B: I can't even hmm that was a big ten freshman of year. So he sat by b behind him Jackson: So both players. Will B: both of them, so he was older than at least one of them. And he had to be at least the same age as one of them. Davis: Late breakout. Jackson: Late breakout. Davis: I know it, I know it, I know it, I know it. Will, you goin'? I I w when are we giving up his I think I think it's time to give up his thing. Jackson: I alright, well you got one two seconds. Give Will B: Yeah. Davis: Dude, we might have Jackson: me a name. Davis: No, I got it. Will B: Terry McLaurin. Davis: Wrong. Same team though. And this guy beat a kid in the hospital by like a hundred and twenty-five points in NCAA. Right, Cardell Jones. Jackson: Yeah, you cut you cut out right at the point where like you were saying the answer. Yes. Cardell Jones. My next hint That was good, Davis. That was impressive. Davis: Cardell Jones, let's go. Let's go. Will B: And Davis: Let's hear the rest of the jokes. Er the Whew. Alright, let's Jackson: Joke. Davis: Let's hear the rest of the hints. Jackson: All right, I was unexpectedly thrown in the starting role late in a championship season and made my first care start in a conference championship game. Will B: I would have got it that one. Davis: I would have gotten that one. Jackson: Yeah. And then I was the quarterback who led Ohio State to the twenty fourteen national championship after injuries to Braxton Miller and JT Barrett. Davis: I like it. So I'm at four points and you're at three points. So it's a battle between me and you. Jackson: That was impressive. Davis: Thank you. What was hit number one? Will B: Yeah. Well obviously I'm the one g Jackson: I was selecting the fourth round of the NFL draft. Davis: Yeah. Will B: Alright, y'all ready for mine? Davis: was a good first Jackson: All right. Will, what you got? Let's hear it. Davis: All right. Hit us with hit number one. Will B: Alright, for the real one. That was a that was a that was a joke. Alright. First question. this player spent the majority of his college career outside the Big Ten. Jackson: Pass. Davis: I'm gonna pass two so then when we go to the next question, it's just open for both of us. Will B: Okay. This player had the exact same number of rushing yards in his first and second season. Davis: Damn. Jackson: I feel like this is trick question. Davis: Feel like it's zero. Jackson: Joe Burrow. Davis: He just didn't even play. that's a good that was a good guess. That was a damn good guess. Whew. That would have been that would have been s that would have been two very hard questions. Alright, same rushing yards. Alright, I think I th I think he's still trying to play a fast one and I think he's gonna quarterback here. Or maybe receiver. Maybe it's a receiver that just dominated and just put up zero rushing yards. Th I think the rushing yards is throwing us off. Played most of his career outside the big the big ten. Z same rushing yards. I'm gonna go zero. Who is the transfer out to end the Big Ten? Unfortunately, nothing's coming to mind. Will B: Are you ready for number three? Davis: I'll pa I'll pass and then I'll get the first guess on the next one. Will B: Alright. this player won the Walter Camp Player of the Year Award, but did not win the Heisman. He is one of or he is two of t two players to have that happen in the last decade. So he won the Walter camp, but did not win the highest. And the Walter Camp is the coaches voting on the best player in the country. Jackson: Hm. I know who it is. No, I don't. No, I don't. Davis: When you say outside the Big Twelve, do you mean do you mean like their team Will B: Big ten. Davis: or outside the Big Ten, do you mean their team was outside of the Big Ten and then they moved in? Or just what is the current Big Ten and that's what you considered in it? Will B: I'm talking about the current Big Ten, all those teams apply, but this player spent majority outside of it. Davis: So like Washington, if if they spent the majority of their time in Wa if they Okay, so it could be Washington. Will B: we No, that's a big ten team. That's big ten team. He transferred in, is what I'm saying. Davis: I don't know it, but Jackson knows it, so I can't pass. Jackson: No, I don't I don't I don't I re I don't know it. Davis: That mostly Jackson: I'm trying to think of someone that I know it. I know wait, actually no, I don't think I do. Will B: I don't think you guys are Davis: Only Jackson: I don't think I know it either. Davis: we're not I'm not even like I'm not even getting any whiffs of of of of of what it is. Jackson: I'm trying to think of people Will B: Yeah, it sounds like Jackson: that got snubbed for the Heisman and I can't think of like like Heisman toss ups and Davis: I know, I can't think of anybody. God, I'm struggling. Will B: Can I give you a can I give you a part two hint to my number three? Davis: Yeah. Jackson: Well David's guest first and then you can give me the Will B: So the part unless you want to guess, well, okay. My part two, so like I said, he's one or one of two players to win the Walter Camp but not win the Heisman. This player was not even invited Davis: All right. Alright, we'll we'll consider this open ended now. I gave I gave my my ten seconds or whatever of of pass freedom or whatever. Alright. So it's Will B: Okay, so Davis: first come, first serve now. Do your hint now. Will B: Okay. So he this so this is part two of number three. I said he was one of two players in the last decade to win the Walter camp but not win the Heisman. Not only did this player not win win the Heisman, he wasn't even invited to New York. And fun fact, the guy that Davis: In the Walter K Jackson: Dude. This is not my this is not my guess, but I feel like it's like in Dominican Sioux or something like that. Not my guess. Will B: Not actually thought about using Davis: Walter Camp Walter Camp is the is the running back, right? Jackson: No, that's Dokke Walker. Will B: The Doke Walker. He w but the guy. Yeah. It's the Davis: Balitnikov is the receiver. But Walter Camp's just offensive player of the year, right? Jackson: Walter Camp's just a player of the year award. Will B: national player of the year by coaches. Usually Davis: Yeah. Will B: it's the exact same. The Heisman votes and the Walter Camp are the same. But this guy, and then fun fact, the guy that won the Walter Camp but didn't win the Heisman was actually Tua. He won the Walter Camp but came in second Davis: So Will B: in the Heisman. Davis: So where my head keeps going, and I know it's not right, is J T Barrett. But he was always been in in the Big Ten, so it's not him. I just don't know who transferred and this was not recently or it would have hit me immediately, which means it was a big time transfer. Which means Caleb Williams on the Heisman. Jackson: That's what I'm saying. Caleb Caleb Williams is I'm trying to think like U USC Washington. Davis: And and all these accolades came from when he was at a big ten school? Will B: Yes, all these are the big ten accolades. Jackson: It's not Michael Panics, that's not my gift. Will B: Wait, are we doing guys we played with in N C A? Davis: Dude, I'm going Michael Phoenix. Michael Penix. I'm going Michael Phoenix. Jackson: he was always in the Big Ten. Will B: Incorrect. He was also always in the Big Ten, those Davis: you're right, he was always at the beginning. Jackson: Yeah. Davis: Yeah, he's also at the yeah. Yeah. Yeah. Will B: Alright, you guys ready for number four? It's time as I get number hit number four. In college, he had more rushing touchdowns than receptions. Jackson: Dude, this is impossible. Davis: Rushing touchdowns and receptions. Well is he a running back or is he a receiver? Jackson: I still I still don't know what position this guy plays. I still don't know the position. Davis: He's gotta be a running back. He's gotta be a running back. He's gotta be a running back. Jackson: Or a qu no, it could be a quarterback. Davis: Yeah. By hit four you're supposed we we're supposed to know the position by hit. Will B: You should know the position. You you Davis: It could be a quarterback. Will B: I'll just give you right now, you what? You guys Davis: It could be a quarterback. Will B: talk to yourselves out. By second hint you guys talked your selves out of the position. Jackson: For what we said. Davis: I know it, I know it, I know it, I know it, I know it, I know it, I know it, Kenneth Walker. LES GO! Jackson: Hey. He won that he won the Walter Camp? Will B: Yeah. And he came in six in the highest map. Jackson: I would not have gotten that. I would not have gotten that at all. Davis: And and and he and he was notorious for not having ever caught an a college pass before. And he played it wake. It just took me a second. I'd I had to put up Will B: Correct. Correct. And he ran for five hundred and seventy nine yards. Davis: I had to put all the pieces together, but w once it clicked, I knew for a fact it was him. Will B: Yeah. So he ran for freshman sophomore five hundred and seventy nine yards. He had three catches both those years and then he won or then he had like nineteen rushing touchdowns and he had like ten catches. So he had more rushing touchdowns in his final year than did Jackson: Bang. That was good. That was good. Davis: Those are some good hints. I like this. I like this. Yeah. Will B: And then number five was he just won a Super Bowl MVP. Jackson: Good. It's good. All right. That'll do it for the for the big Davis: Yeah. Well that was fun, guys. Jackson: tin pot. Yeah, that was fun. Will B: Yeah. Thanks for having me on, the Victim Expert. Jackson: Yeah, appreciate it. Appreciate it. Well Davis: Yeah, we had yeah, we needed the expert on. Jackson: Alright. we'll we'll be recording ACC Big Twelve. Yeah, AC ACC Big Twelve Davis: Alright, well we got the the ACC and Yeah, sorry. We I'll let you do that. Jackson: coming when we're recording ACC Big Twelve tomorrow and then we'll do week zero and and some season long stuff coming up here in the next week or so. So all right. Thanks guys. See ya. Davis: Yeah. say stay tuned. Yeah, appreciate Will B: forward to it. So yeah. Davis: it.