Latest / Early Edition with Ryan Bridge / Nick Tuffley: ASB Chief Economist on house prices rising 0.1% in September

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Nick Tuffley: ASB Chief Economist on house prices rising 0.1% in September · Early Edition with Ryan Bridge

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Speaking of a sleep. That's what the property market's been lately.
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: But jeep, we're celebrating this morning because, wait for it,
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: September property prices, according to Cotality, showed some increase zero
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: point one percent. This brings an end to five straight
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: months of waning property values. Joining me this morning, Nick Tuff,
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: the ASB chief econdoms Nick, good morning, good morning, Good
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: to have you on.
• 0:19
  Speaker 2: Is this?
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: I mean, look, it's monthly data. It's zero point one percent.
• 0:23
  Speaker 1: Will the real estate agents be cracking out the champagne?
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Do we think?
• 0:27
  Speaker 2: Oh? Well, I think at the moment we've been looking
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: for really excuse we could. When it comes to the
• 0:31
  Speaker 2: housing market, it is one tenth percent. But when you
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: look at various housing measures, we did have a bit
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: of a burst of activity where prices were lifting slightly
• 0:42
  Speaker 2: late last year early this year, and things didn't look
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: like they peetered out. So if we do start to
• 0:47
  Speaker 2: see the property market picking up, it's one of those
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: economic signs that people are starting to get out of
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: the infrastrate hibernation that they've been in for a while.
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: The regions doing well, a bay of plenty. What do
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: you put that down to?
• 1:03
  Speaker 2: Well, when read our ASP Regional School Board. We actually
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: had the Bay of Plenty at the top. And one
• 1:09
  Speaker 2: thing that when you're looking around the country at the moment,
• 1:11
  Speaker 2: you tend to see areas that have had good, good
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: export incomes or tourism have done well. And that's the
• 1:19
  Speaker 2: pending example was two bumper seasons of Kerry Freed exports.
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: For example, are people buying you mentioned tourism, are people
• 1:27
  Speaker 1: buying homes there to rent for tourism like Airbnb?
• 1:32
  Speaker 2: Well, with Torong, it's probably more around the income that's
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: come through. We've seen jobs lifting up, retail spending lifting
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: up there. For example, the bottom of the South Island
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: had a really great run. And one thing I've put
• 1:46
  Speaker 2: that down to is around the central Lakes and the
• 1:49
  Speaker 2: spillover effects around the region would be that tourism. It's
• 1:52
  Speaker 2: not just the people coming and wanted to buy properties,
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: but also the need for workers as well. So that's
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: something in recent years where the lakes, even though it's
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: come off the boil this time, now it's hit that
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  Speaker 2: population pressure and that needs for housing.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: Nick, what's the lag everyone in the big cities this
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: morning I'll be thinking, well, that's great for Toling and
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: great for Southend. But what's the lag between because normally
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: it's the other way around. Auckland would lead a property
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: price resurgence and then the regions would follow. This time,
• 2:18
  Speaker 1: it seems like it's in verse. When will the city
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: start to see something.
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: We will start to see something, I think over time.
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: One challenge with Auckland and particularly Wellington, as they've gone through,
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: they went through big booms, they went through big, big busts.
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: One challenge that we do have a number of markets.
• 2:37
  Speaker 2: There's actually a lot of stock sitting on the market,
• 2:39
  Speaker 2: so we actually need more activity. We need the sales
• 2:42
  Speaker 2: activity to pick up start eating into that stock on
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  Speaker 2: the market doesn't really get some sort of more noticeable
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: lists and prices, so supply versus demand, there's a lot
• 2:50
  Speaker 2: of supply. People are still being a little bit cautious
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: and we've seen that in house sales recently that they've
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: actually edged back down, so people haven't sort of quite
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: got out and embraced a sort of buying crem at
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: the moment.
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: Be fair to say, Nick, appreciate your time this morning.
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: Nick Touughy, ASP Chief Economist. For more from early edition
• 3:06
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• 3:09
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