Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 572 - 9/3/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 572 - 9/3/26 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:01
  54321 all systems go with Josh Applebaum starts now Hello and
• 0:14
  welcome to episode 572 of the all systems go sports betting
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  podcast powered by rhythm. I am your host, Josh Applebaum.
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  What's going on everyone? Another day here in the arena,
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  guys, It's a big Thursday. You know what that means or
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  maybe you don't. You probably do though.
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  We got football to talk about. We have football games to get
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  down on tonight. I'm going to tell you one game
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  that I'm betting tonight. So do have one best bet I'm
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  excited to share with you. It's again we talked about
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  yesterday. Nothing has, you know, popped up
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  with a red flag. We're still riding this one.
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  I'll give you the updated numbers and I actually one thing
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  has happened that's made me more excited to sweat this game here
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  for tonight in terms of where the juice is leaning because I
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  was holding out for a specific number.
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  I don't think you're going to get it.
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  And now if you want to get it, you have to pay even more to get
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  it. So we'll talk about one game
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  here for tonight. So just going to be a one pack,
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  but I'm also going to talk about a game that unfortunately, you
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  know, you got to know the rules in the state that you live in
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  because there is another game that I wanted to bet on.
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  I wrote about this game and then when I went to go bet the game,
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  I remembered, wow, I can't bet on this team.
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  And I'll tell you the reason why.
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  And it's not it's not anything out of my control.
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  It's it's something way beyond, you know, again, you're able to
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  bet or not. It's it's all about the
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  jurisdiction you live in and the rules of the state that you live
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  in. So 1 college football game
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  tonight, guys, That's it. I know there's Major League
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  Baseball. There's a lot of day games going
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  on here. It's a nine game slate now.
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  Looking back toward yesterday, we finally broke through 2 and 1
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  + 0.38 units. It wasn't easy, man, was it
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  hard. It was, it was hard to even go 2
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  and 1 + 0.38 units. But we got the Yankees and extra
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  innings getting it done. A massive hitting extras by
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  Austin Wells. Schlittler pitched the gem,
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  although he gave up a home run late to tie it up.
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  But they came through. They had bases loaded and
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  they're almost going to not score a run.
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  And then you know what what happens there 10th inning you
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  don't score usually the team bottom ten wins.
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  But luckily Austin Wells had a huge hit.
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  They poured it on. So Yankees were a nice winner
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  and then the Astros came through 2 to nothing.
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  That thing was back and forth. Shout out to our guy Nelson
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  Velasquez hitting a huge two run single up the middle and
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  Westneske for pitch in a gem. Believe it or not, the Rays.
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  I don't know what's up with the Rays.
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  They get blown out 3:50 so that was a weird one.
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  But after going two straight O and threes, I'll take a 2 and 1
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  + 0.38 unit night. It's a winning night.
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  Hopefully it breaks our our rough patch there and it's kind
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  of like a a good shooter, like when Steph Curry has a couple
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  bad games of shooting. You just need to see the ball go
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  in the net. So hopefully that's what
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  happened last night and were able to get on a little hot
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  streak here guys. So with that being said, I know
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  we could, you know, maybe add one or two baseball players for
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  it tonight, but I need a mental break from baseball.
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  Nothing really jumped out to me for tonight and I don't want to
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  force this. We got college football back in
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  our lives. There's a game that is right in
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  our wheelhouse here. So I would hate to, you know,
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  you know, force or just because we want the action bet 2 MLB
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  games, go one and one maybe win our football game or go oh and
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  two baseball. Then we have a losing night.
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  So again, I want to be careful here and it also allows us to
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  just really focus on this one game tonight.
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  I love having multiple bets. I love having a, you know, for
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  me, like in baseball, if I have like a 6:00 game, an 8:00 and a
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  10:00, I love that it's just boom, boom, boom.
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  You watch them consecutively, sweat them all.
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  But if there's a sharp game, sharp angle, we're just going to
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  try to go 1 and O. We're going to, we're going to
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  get back to basics, going to try to win this one game, go one and
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  O and get a little hot streak going here.
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  So a night off of baseball, if you're like me, you need it
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  again. It wasn't easy.
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  It was like scratching and clawing to the death last night
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  just to go 2 and one so night off of MLB.
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  We do have some college football.
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  Got one best bet for you and I'll tell you about the other
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  game that I'm annoyed by. But with that being said, guys
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  want to mention real quick, we are closing in on not just
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  college football but the NFL because we are now just a few
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  days away from the season opener.
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  It was a week from yesterday, September 9th, it'll be Patriots
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  and Seahawks and then on the 10th, that's a Thursday.
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  We got San Fran and the Rams. Think that's game.
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  Where's that? Australia, wherever that is.
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  And then of course, we got the full season slate there on the
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  13th, which is Sunday. So reminder the Applebaum NFL
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  Survivor contest, second annual Survivor.
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  I'm going to keep pounding you with this up until the 13th,
• 4:32
  then you're not going to hear about it then.
• 4:33
  Then we're going to just try to each survive in advance.
• 4:36
  But you have up until the 13th at 1:00 when all the games
• 4:40
  start. On the 13th, Sunday at one it
• 4:42
  closes, you can't enter anymore. So get in now we're up to 135
• 4:47
  entries. I'm loving it.
• 4:48
  You guys are just you're signing up left and right.
• 4:50
  So that's fantastic. I want to try to get to 200 or
• 4:53
  maybe 250. So let's keep going.
• 4:54
  If you haven't done it yet again, you can click the link
• 4:57
  that's listed in the bio description of the pod.
• 5:00
  You can also go to my Twitter page at Josh under score
• 5:02
  insights. But I'm going to challenge you.
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  I know there's someone in your life like if if you if you came
• 5:07
  up huge and sign up yourself. Thank you.
• 5:09
  You can do multiple entries, but if you've already done that,
• 5:12
  please do me a favor. Go find someone else.
• 5:14
  Ask your dad, your cousin, your uncle, your colleague, your Co
• 5:17
  worker, your buddies. Put it in the group chat.
• 5:20
  Let's get more people to sign up.
• 5:21
  The more people that sign up, the bigger the payout is.
• 5:23
  So do it now, NFL survivor and hopefully we'll have one of you
• 5:28
  guys listening guys who are gals listening take home up to 45
• 5:31
  grand. Wouldn't that be nice?
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  So that being said, let's talk about some college football for
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  tonight. It's going to be a little short
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  and sweet of a pod here, guys, but again, there's one game that
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  is just a wheelhouse play for us.
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  So let's talk about this game and I'm going to finish up and
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  let you know about a game that I'm annoyed by because I can't
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  bet on it because I'm in Massachusetts.
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  Maybe that's a good thing. Maybe it's a bad thing.
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  We'll find out later tonight. But anyway, the one bet for
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  tonight, we're going to focus all of our attention.
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  We're going to sweat like crazy. Hopefully we're going to catch
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  this one. It's Colorado and Georgia Tech.
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  Now, if you listen to yesterday's pod, if you
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  subscribe to the juice Real best bets, you'll already know that
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  I'm going to Colorado on the points here.
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  Let's update the reasoning behind it.
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  Let's talk about line move splits.
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  I'll give you 1 little kind of advantage or good thing, not a
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  red flag, as Matthew McConaughey says, green flags.
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  Yeah, you see, you see green light, Green light means go.
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  All right, all right, all right. So give you a green, green light
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  here. Why Colorado is looking even
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  sharper for tonight. Let's set the stage.
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  Let's break down this game like any other game.
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  But here's the thing, guys. Now as we've been betting
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  baseball for so long, every day we got to start thinking more,
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  put our brains in that position of looking at football.
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  Look, thinking about key numbers, thinking about covering
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  spreads, not just winning games. Survivor, you all you care about
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  is winning, but again, covering numbers and key numbers.
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  That's what we got to start thinking about.
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  South 8:00 tonight, Colorado Buffaloes coach prime visiting
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  the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets. Let's talk line move split
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  system matches. We give them my play for this
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  one. So Colorado, they finished a
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  disappointing 3:00 and 9:00 last year.
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  Terrible year for Coach Prime. Odds makers expect kind of a
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  similar year this year. Their updated win total at
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  DraftKings, it's 4 1/2, but it's under -160 so you're looking at
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  another 3-4 win season. So no Travis Hunter, no Shador,
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  Yeah, Coach Prime, but still probably another losing year for
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  the Buffs. Meanwhile, Georgia Tech, they
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  went an impressive 9 and four last year.
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  However, I remember King Haynes who killed us in the last play
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  and Hall of Fame game as I was on the points there with the
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  Cardinals, but he was the quarterback last year.
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  They got a new QB this year, a lot of turnover.
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  They went nine and four last year.
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  Odds makers think they're going to regress quite a bit because
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  their win total is 6 1/2, but it's not 6 1/2 over, it's 6 1/2
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  under -130 So basically we're thinking Colorado's the same
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  team. Three or four wins, but looks
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  like, based on the odds makers predictions, Georgia Tech nine
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  wins last year. Maybe you're down to six this
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  year. So again, one team's three or
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  four, one team 6 relatively, you know, even footing here.
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  Now let's break down this game from a data-driven perspective.
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  Always start with what the number opened at.
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  To me, that's always your starting point, your reference
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  point. So I always mention the odds
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  logic, live odds page. It's a great starting point to
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  just have that opening column that says opener.
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  It never changes. That's going to be a market
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  consensus. Little pro tip though, I don't
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  just go off of that blindly. I click the box that shows all
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  the major books, then just kind of make sure everyone's about
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  equal because if it shows -7 but then one book, 7 1/2 ones, 61's
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  five, you know, one's eight. You want to make sure it's all
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  relatively the same. And then you kind of take the
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  average there. But this was pretty standard
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  across the board. Georgia Tech open as a 7 point
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  home favorite. Now the public, they are not on
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  coach Prime at all. They think this is an easy cover
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  for Georgia Tech again. They had a good, good year last
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  year. 77% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the -7
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  with Georgia Tech. Now, normally, again, this is an
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  8:00 game, ESPN, it's going to be extremely heavily bet.
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  Normally, if a team is getting 77% of spread bets, they open -7
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  what would we expect to happen? You'd probably say, OK, maybe
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  they're up to -7 1/2, maybe they're up to -8 Typically, when
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  you see heavy, heavy betting on one side, Oz makers will most of
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  the time adjust the number toward that heavily bet side.
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  Why? Because they're taking in so
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  much action. They got to move the number up.
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  They got to move it so that they can entice some some betting on
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  the other side. And again, they want to move it
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  up because they got to protect themselves a little bit.
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  However, that didn't happen here.
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  This is the big indicator for me.
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  Even though 77% of spread bets at DK are laying it with the
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  Yellow Jackets, Georgia Tech is not up -7 to -8.
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  This line is down -7 to -6 1/2. So right there, boom, RLM
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  reverse line move. When the betting line goes away
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  from the popular side toward the unpopular side, we're seeing a
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  heavy amount of bets on Georgia Tech, yet this line is not going
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  in their favorites dropping toward Colorado.
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  So just from the standpoint of identifying sharp action, this
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  tells me that pros hit Colorado ideally at +7.
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  Now, Colorado is not just a sharp play, it's a great
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  contrarian play. So we always talk about, you
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  know, combining sharp and contrarian.
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  You know, contrarian is just putting yourself against the
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  public. It's, it's just a foundational
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  aspect. I want to be against the drunk
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  guys at the bar who are sweating.
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  Yeah, you got to take Georgia Tech.
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  They're going to roll. Coach Prime stinks.
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  No Shador, no Travis Hunter. Could they stink?
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  That's what the drunk guys at the bar saying, just hammer
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  Georgia Tech. That's a great contrarian
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  opportunity, though. So the sharp money is that the
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  lines drop toward Colorado, even though Publix on Georgia Tech.
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  But just from the standpoint of #1 contrarian play of the night,
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  it's an 8:00 game, prime time. It's a small slate tonight.
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  There's not a ton of games. You actually have a lot of added
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  extra games. But it's on ESPN.
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  Anytime you get an ESPN game, a heavily bet game, I just ideally
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  want to be against the public. And you are against the public
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  with Colorado. But again, it's that sharp move
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  that's also telling us that Colorado is taking in respected
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  money. Now aside from the RLM, the
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  contrarian opportunity. In terms of the total, I did
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  notice that it pretty hasn't really moved too much.
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  It's 51 1/2. Although I did see, oh, I forgot
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  to mention this. Colorado 58% bets nearly 70% of
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  spread dollars at Circa. So we got that indicator at
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  Circa, super contrarian at DK, but low bets higher dollars,
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  majority of sharp money at Circa total.
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  I'm not playing it, but it's pretty much stayed 51 1/2.
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  I did see a 52, I saw a 51. You are getting good splits on
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  the under. At DK, 29% bets 43% dollars
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  under. At circa 38% bets, 56% dollars
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  under. The reason why I mentioned
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  mentioned the total, it's not 'cause I'm betting it, but it's
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  pretty much stayed the same. Or some books are juiced under.
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  That's a good thing. Typically you want the total to
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  be like, if we think about correlative betting, you want
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  the total to be leaning under along with the line moving
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  toward the dog because if it's leaning favorite and, and the
• 12:01
  total is going up, sometimes that can mean favorite rolls and
• 12:04
  covers like in a blowout. Lastly, we're trying to get the
• 12:08
  best number here and this is the update that I wanted to mention.
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  I told you guys yesterday, I bet this game, Colorado was either
• 12:15
  yesterday or maybe it was two nights ago, but at the time,
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  Colorado was plus 6 1/2 at plus 100 at the score.
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  I bought them up to plus 7 -, 125.
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  I'm saying to myself, OK, let's wait.
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  Maybe we get the seven. Anyway, there's no sevens out
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  there. And if you look at the juice,
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  it's -110 pretty much every book.
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  So plus 6 and F -, 110 Colorado at Caesar's FanDuel bet MG on
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  the score fanatics. DK actually in the score have +6
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  and F -, 112 -, 115 Colorado. So the fact that the juices -110
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  both sides evening out, even though everyone's playing
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  Georgia Tech, that's a good indicator here at the odds
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  makers aren't even going to give you reduced juice on Colorado
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  because yesterday was mostly -1 fifteens -6 and F -, 115 on
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  Georgia Tech. So that's a good indicator.
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  So again, maybe you jumped on the plus 7 -, 125.
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  Maybe you bought it up. I'm thinking now if you're
• 13:10
  playing it, I would just take the 6 1/2 because if you're
• 13:13
  going to buy it up, it's going to be like +7 at like -130 -,
• 13:17
  135. That just becomes a little bit
• 13:19
  too expensive, but it is a good sign in a way that the juice is
• 13:22
  evening out and then you look at our friends at Juice Reel.
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  I noticed a 5% sharp mush edge on Colorado spread and a 44%
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  sharp mush edge on Colorado money line.
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  Now I'm not bold enough to go money line.
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  I would love for Colorado to win this game outright.
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  They're like +200, but just tells you both spread and
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  outright. Big money here.
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  Respect to money at Juice Reel is on the buffs.
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  So add it all up here guys. Colorado.
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  I got Colorado plus 7 -, 125 again, you can go plus 6 1/2 now
• 13:54
  at -110 but this is a wheelhouse play primetime contrarian,
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  reverse line move, sharp mush edge, let's go buffs.
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  Keep it close when the game lose by 6 or less.
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  Now quickly the other game because I got to run here,
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  actually got to pick up my daughter who is at grandma's
• 14:10
  daycare. I just wanted to mention this,
• 14:13
  Massachusetts and Rutgers. I live in Massachusetts, born
• 14:17
  and raised in Western Mass. I live on the outskirts of
• 14:19
  Boston with, with my wife, my dog and my baby.
• 14:22
  And I had to I was writing about UMass and Rutgers and believe it
• 14:26
  or not, Massachusetts looks sharp tonight.
• 14:28
  They went from plus 30 1/2 down to plus 29 1/2 + 29 + 28 1/2.
• 14:33
  Everyone's on Rutgers lines going to U Mass.
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  I'm like, wow, I'm really going to bet UMass, as terrible as
• 14:38
  they are, they're or they owned 12 last year, but actually
• 14:41
  brought in some legit, you know, Division One transfers.
• 14:45
  Maybe they're a little better. But anyway, I'm thinking about
• 14:47
  betting UMass. I go to Bet UMass.
• 14:49
  I can't find it on my app. Why?
• 14:51
  Because if you live in Massachusetts like me, there's a
• 14:53
  rule that you can't bet on in state colleges.
• 14:57
  So maybe that's a good thing. Maybe UMass is, you know, sharp,
• 15:01
  but they're going to get blown out.
• 15:02
  And I'm like, oh, luckily I can't bet on them because
• 15:04
  Rutgers is going to cover anyway.
• 15:06
  But I was going to play them, but because I'm in
• 15:08
  Massachusetts, I can't. So either I'm going to be
• 15:10
  annoyed. They're going to cover and I'm
• 15:12
  going to say freaking Massachusetts lawmakers let me
• 15:14
  bet on in state schools. The reason they do that is
• 15:17
  because they think if you can bet on it, you can, you know,
• 15:19
  manipulate the players and point shave.
• 15:20
  It's like it's ridiculous. It's not going to happen.
• 15:23
  So again, I can't bet on it. It's a mute a moot point for me.
• 15:26
  But if you tell me like UMass, they do look pretty sharp based
• 15:29
  on the splits, the system matches, all that kind of stuff.
• 15:32
  So just wanted to mention that, but anyway, guys, that about
• 15:35
  does it short and sweet again, because I got to get out of
• 15:37
  here. My new life means that now I got
• 15:39
  to pick up my daughter when she's at camp grandma.
• 15:43
  So I just wanted to wrap things up as we always do first by
• 15:45
  saying thank you. Thank you for listening.
• 15:47
  Thank you for tuning in. Thank you for grinding in the
• 15:49
  arena with me every single day through the good and the bad,
• 15:52
  the UPS and the downs, the hot streaks, the cold streaks.
• 15:54
  If you'd like to help me grow this pod, just drop a five star
• 15:57
  review on Spotify or iTunes. Recommend the pod to a friend
• 16:00
  retweet word of mouth again like it on Twitter and you're all
• 16:05
  those things would would really make my day next.
• 16:07
  If you enjoy this style of sports betting data-driven sharp
• 16:10
  contrarian betting focusing on line moves bet split system
• 16:13
  matches, taking a contrarian approach.
• 16:16
  This style betting has appealed to you.
• 16:17
  You want to learn more about data-driven betting.
• 16:20
  Maybe someone's got a birthday coming up or just football.
• 16:22
  It's here next week. It's the NFL.
• 16:25
  I would love for you to go to Amazon.com, type in the NFL
• 16:27
  sharp betting playbook or type in the everything guide to
• 16:30
  sports betting. Pick up a copy for you or for
• 16:33
  friendles. The two books that I've written.
• 16:35
  I'll meet you at the book. I'll sign them for you.
• 16:36
  I'll buy you beer or ginger ale. We'll get some nachos.
• 16:39
  We'll we'll go nuts for sweating the buffs here tonight next to
• 16:42
  be downloaded rhythm and juice reel yet.
• 16:44
  Well, if you haven't, now is the time.
• 16:46
  Footballs here guys, We're going to really lean on rhythm and
• 16:48
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• 16:51
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• 16:56
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• 16:59
  You can also tip your podcast host if you enjoy the pod.
• 17:02
  You want to get these plays and again, the key with football is
• 17:04
  getting hooks and getting these numbers early like Nevada sharp
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  as a tack, getting the plus 2 1/2.
• 17:10
  It's down to 1 1/2 or one. I'll be you can get those plays
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  bet picks on Juice reel. It'll cost you 10 bucks a week
• 17:20
  or 25 bucks a month and again, I consider that a tip jar.
• 17:24
  You enjoy the pod tip your podcast host and thank you all
• 17:27
  for those of you who already have signed up.
• 17:29
  Lastly, I mentioned odds logic. It's the best live odds page
• 17:32
  around. Just the fact you can watch the
• 17:35
  market in real time, monitor sharp blind movement, compare
• 17:38
  the open of the current shop for the best number, get live in
• 17:41
  game wagering odds. It's all available to you with
• 17:43
  odds logic. They're the best live odds page
• 17:45
  around. So if you ever want to give it a
• 17:46
  shot, now's a great time with football returning.
• 17:49
  Use this special link oddslogic.com/josh 123 that's
• 17:55
  going to give you a 7 day free trial, 50% off your first month
• 17:58
  of service. So that about does it for
• 18:00
  episode 572. Short and sweet one big college
• 18:03
  football game. We're going to focus all of our
• 18:05
  action and all of our attention here on the Buffs.
• 18:07
  See if we can go one and O. But as always, guys, last two
• 18:11
  final thoughts. Whether I see you at the Borgata
• 18:14
  in Atlantic City, Twin River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New
• 18:16
  Hampshire, Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun, down in Connecticut at the
• 18:19
  Encore in Boston, Plain Ridge Park, Casino, MGM Springfield,
• 18:23
  or the Nash and my neck of the woods on the border of
• 18:25
  Massachusetts in New Hampshire, out in the desert where the true
• 18:28
  grinders get down, where Billy Walter sends his number runners,
• 18:30
  where the Lois True as possible is found at the South Point or
• 18:33
  sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium swimming
• 18:36
  pool. When you cash a big ticket at
• 18:38
  Circa, whatever it may be, you're going to walk up to me.
• 18:40
  It wasn't easy, but we finally had a winning night.
• 18:43
  Show me a Yankees ticket. Show me an Astros ticket.
• 18:45
  We're going to buy Austin Wells, Cam Schlittler, Nelson Velasquez
• 18:49
  and Hayden W Neski a beer because they really came through
• 18:52
  for us last night. But first one's on me, next
• 18:55
  one's on you. We'll post about the book.
• 18:57
  Sweatshop Contrarian plays all night.
• 18:59
  So as always, guys coming off a two and one or one and two, A3
• 19:02
  and O&O and three after a winning night, a losing night, a
• 19:04
  hot streak, a cold streak, we just can't get too high.
• 19:07
  When things are good or too low and things are bad, we're always
• 19:09
  grinding. We're always staying disciplined
• 19:11
  with our bankroll management. We're laying off the games with
• 19:13
  red flags. We're getting down fearless, but
• 19:15
  discipline on the games that match our model and that model
• 19:18
  sounds something like this. We're looking for games that are
• 19:20
  against the public with the house, with the pros flap that
• 19:24
  avoid parlays and get some CLV. If we can do that, we're going
• 19:27
  to be successful sports bettors. So good luck everybody.
• 19:30
  Have a great Thursday night again, go Buffs.
• 19:33
  If you haven't done it yet, go sign up for the Apple Bomb
• 19:35
  second annual NFL Survivor contest with splash boards and
• 19:38
  go find someone else to sign up as well.
• 19:41
  But good luck, go buffs and I'll see you guys tomorrow for Big
• 19:44
  Friday edition. That'll be episode 573 of the
• 19:47
  All Systems Go sports betting podcast.
• 19:49
  Good luck everybody. Let's go, Coach Prime.