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Trump-Xi meeting Why China is hoping to sway US policy of 'strategic ambiguity' over Taiwan · THE DAILY BRIEF

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  Speaker 1: On that same tour of Asia. The American President is
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  Speaker 1: due to meet his Chinese counterpart, President's Xijinping on Thursday.
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  Speaker 1: The leaders of the world's two biggest economists have been
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  Speaker 1: locked in a trade dispute since a President Trump returned
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  Speaker 1: to office and imposed punishing tariffs, but it appears momentum
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  Speaker 1: for a deal is growing in the run up to
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  Speaker 1: their meeting.
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  Speaker 2: Six years have passed since Sijinping and Donald Trump last
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  Speaker 2: met face to face, back in twenty nineteen. During Trump's
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  Speaker 2: first term as president. A trade dispute was also central
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  Speaker 2: to their talks. They temporarily de escalated the US China
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  Speaker 2: trade war at the time. This year, the two leaders
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  Speaker 2: have spoken on the phone several times, but it's this
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  Speaker 2: in person meeting that has been a key factor in
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  Speaker 2: a US market surge. They're optimistic there may be an
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  Speaker 2: improvement in US China relations, which have suffered because of
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  Speaker 2: Trump's tariffs. The US President has also appeared up beat.
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  Speaker 3: We have China coming and it's going to be very interesting.
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  Speaker 3: I have a lot of respect for President she and
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  Speaker 3: we are going to I think we're going to come
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  Speaker 3: away with the deal. But I really feel good our
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  Speaker 3: country is doing so well. Economically, It's doing so incredibly well.
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  Speaker 2: The Chinese foreign minister has been more cautious. Ahead of
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  Speaker 2: the high stakes meeting in South Korea, he appeared to
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  Speaker 2: criticize the US government's protectionist policies.
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  Speaker 4: Well, we call for an end to politicizing economic and
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  Speaker 4: trade issues, artificially fragmenting global markets and resorting to trade
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  Speaker 4: wars and tariff battles.
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  Speaker 2: More Jack, One of the main aims of the talks
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  Speaker 2: is to avoid fresh tariffs on China. Earlier this year,
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  Speaker 2: amid escalating tensions, Trump increased tariffs on China to one
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  Speaker 2: hundred and forty five percent. Beijing responded by raising their
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  Speaker 2: own duties on US exports to one hundred and twenty
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  Speaker 2: five percent. Talks between Chinese and US officials resulted in
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  Speaker 2: a sharp drop in tariffs, but Trump threatened a new
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  Speaker 2: one hundred percent duty on Chinese goods from November over
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  Speaker 2: restrictions from Beijing on the export of rare earths, which
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  Speaker 2: are essential for US industry. Now it appears that plan
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  Speaker 2: has been shelved after both countries agreed to a framework
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  Speaker 2: for a trade deal on the table.
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  Speaker 4: The President had given me maximum leverage when he threatened
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  Speaker 4: one hundred percent tariffs if the Chinese imposed their rare
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  Speaker 4: earth global export controls. So I think we have averted
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  Speaker 4: that so that the tariffs will be averted.
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  Speaker 2: While trade will likely dominate the summit. Other topics on
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  Speaker 2: the agenda are Taiwan, the final sale of the Chinese
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  Speaker 2: owned social media platform TikTok in the US, and the
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  Speaker 2: war in Ukraine.
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  Speaker 1: Well Ali Wyne is senior research and advocacy advisor on
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  Speaker 1: US China relations with the International Crisis Group. He joins
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  Speaker 1: US from Washington, DC. Welcome to d W What do
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  Speaker 1: you think will count as a win for each side
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  Speaker 1: in this meeting?
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  Speaker 5: Well, both leaders want to de escalate. The past few
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  Speaker 5: months have been very bruising for the economies of both countries.
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  Speaker 5: So I'm not expecting any major breakthroughs in this meeting
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  Speaker 5: between President Trump and President g but it's important. This
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  Speaker 5: is the first in person meeting between the two leaders
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  Speaker 5: since President Trump retook office. I think two outcomes that
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  Speaker 5: we can reasonably expect. One. I do believe that the
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  Speaker 5: two leaders will bless the framework that you referenced in
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  Speaker 5: your early remarks between US Commerce. Excuse me, Treasury Secretary
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  Speaker 5: Scott Besson and his Chinese kind of part. I think
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  Speaker 5: that the two leaders will bless that framework, creating for
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  Speaker 5: a more enduring trade truth. And it looks like there's
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  Speaker 5: been some reporting that President Trump is willing to have
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  Speaker 5: fentanyl related tariffs on China if China commits to cracking
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  Speaker 5: down more vigorously on the export of fentanyl precursors.
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  Speaker 1: Okay, so where do you see China going on rare earths?
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  Speaker 5: So it looks like China had threatened a much more
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  Speaker 5: expanse of much more protracted export control regime for rare earth,
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  Speaker 5: and those export controls, much more expansive ones. They were
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  Speaker 5: due to come into effect on December first, but you
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  Speaker 5: heard they're just the US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessen says
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  Speaker 5: it looks like because of the negotiations in Kuala Lumpur
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  Speaker 5: that that threat has been averted. So I think that
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  Speaker 5: that threat of rare earth's leverage, it very much remains
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  Speaker 5: in China's arsenal, and it kind of looms like a
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  Speaker 5: sort of dominicles over negotiations between the United States and China.
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  Speaker 5: But I think that at least for about a year,
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  Speaker 5: according to the reporting, China will hold off on those
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  Speaker 5: more expansive rare earth export controls.
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  Speaker 1: Taiwan is a perennial sticking point in US China relations.
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  Speaker 1: What are we likely to say that?
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  Speaker 5: So, President she reportedly will ask President Trump the state
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  Speaker 5: that the United States opposes Taiwan's independence, not merely that
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  Speaker 5: it just opposes Taiwan's independence. I think they would be unlikely,
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  Speaker 5: just given how quickly this meeting has come together between
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  Speaker 5: President Trump and President She. I think it's unlikely that
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  Speaker 5: we will see any official shift in US policy. And
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  Speaker 5: in fact, just a few days ago, the US Secretary
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  Speaker 5: of State Mark or Rubio tried to get out ahead
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  Speaker 5: of some of the concerns, particularly in Taiwan, kind of
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  Speaker 5: quashing that chatter. Quashing those rumors, Secretary of Rubio said
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  Speaker 5: that there will not be a change in official US
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  Speaker 5: policy on Taiwan. The question, though, is whether President Trump,
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  Speaker 5: as his second and last term in office draws to
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  Speaker 5: a close, whether he will prove more open to making
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  Speaker 5: a shift in US policy on Taiwan. And even if
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  Speaker 5: President Trump doesn't take that offer or accept that offer
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  Speaker 5: from President at their meeting tomorrow, the two leaders are
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  Speaker 5: going to meet at least two more times in the
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  Speaker 5: near future, once in Beijing early next year, and then
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  Speaker 5: ahead of the G twenty summit again next year. So
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  Speaker 5: my expectation would be we won't see an official shift
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  Speaker 5: in US policy on Taiwan tomorrow, but I do believe
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  Speaker 5: the President She will continue in his subsequent interactions with
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  Speaker 5: President Trump to offer or to ask rather that President
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  Speaker 5: Trump does make that shift on Taiwan policy.
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  Speaker 1: Now we've seen various world leaders make the chip to
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  Speaker 1: the White House to flatter and fam over Donald Trump.
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  Speaker 1: What is President She's approach likely to be.
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  Speaker 5: It's a stick and a carrot. It's a combination. So
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  Speaker 5: the stick I think you already alluded to in the
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  Speaker 5: form of rare Earth's leverage and other for other forms
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  Speaker 5: of economic leverage that China can can use to inflict
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  Speaker 5: significant pain across the US economy, whether the impact on
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  Speaker 5: soybean farmers in the agricultural sector more broadly, whether the
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  Speaker 5: impact in the automotive industry. So one is a stick
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  Speaker 5: that she can brandish. But to your point about flattery,
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  Speaker 5: there's also a carot, and it connects to the discussion
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  Speaker 5: we were just having about Taiwan. I think to make
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  Speaker 5: President Trump more open to making a shift on Taiwan
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  Speaker 5: policy a president. She will essentially say to President Trump, Look, you,
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  Speaker 5: unlike your predecessors, and unlike your successors, you have a
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  Speaker 5: fleeting opportunity to steady bilateral relations in a way that
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  Speaker 5: none of your predecessors since Richard Nixon has, and to
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  Speaker 5: end once and for all the prospect of across straight war.
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  Speaker 5: And given that President Trump has said he wants to
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  Speaker 5: be remembered as a uniquely consequential and envisionary peacemaker, I
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  Speaker 5: think that as he draws closer to ending his time
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  Speaker 5: in office, I think that that pitch on the part
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  Speaker 5: of President She will likely entice him more and more.
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  Speaker 1: Okay, thanks for taking us through that so clearly. Ali
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  Speaker 1: Wyne from the International Crisis
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  Speaker 5: Group, thank you very much for having me