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$115,000 Bitcoin By End of Year?️‍🔥Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Bitcoin just keeps moving.
• 0:09
  Speaker 2: Everybody asking where is the top will break it down
• 0:11
  Speaker 2: for you guys today. My name is Paul Barre. Welcome
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: back into tech path. I do want to think our
• 0:14
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• 0:16
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• 0:19
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  Speaker 2: and do that, get it set up for your year
• 0:36
  Speaker 2: in planning and into twenty twenty five especially start to
• 0:39
  Speaker 2: wrap up. I think what will be an interesting second
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: leg of this bull run, so check it out. Use
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: our discount code to help channel. One other thing I
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: want to get to is the SEC. And as you
• 0:51
  Speaker 2: guys know, we've been talking about the commissioners there. It
• 0:54
  Speaker 2: looks as though that Caroline Crenshaw is going to not
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: well is not actually happened, was not reconfirmed, so her
• 1:02
  Speaker 2: nomination has now been canceled. She is out at the SEC,
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: which means that we have a potential for having four
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: pro crypto commissioners out of the five. This would be
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: huge because it would continue to push in the wake
• 1:16
  Speaker 2: of what's going to happen with the Trump administration.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: Very positive for crypto because this.
• 1:21
  Speaker 2: Is one that was probably could have been a spoiler
• 1:25
  Speaker 2: inside a lot of different scenarios that could play out
• 1:28
  Speaker 2: within the SEC.
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: So pretty good deal.
• 1:31
  Speaker 2: If you look at what's happening on bitcoin today, well,
• 1:33
  Speaker 2: if you go over to Bloomberg, it seems like everything's
• 1:35
  Speaker 2: happening with bitcoin because all of their headlines are bitcoin,
• 1:38
  Speaker 2: Bitcoin raising after the longest week, Bitcoin hitting another all
• 1:42
  Speaker 2: time high, everybody comparing stocks to bitcoins. So is this
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: the euphoria period of crypto?
• 1:50
  Speaker 1: Let me know what you guys think.
• 1:51
  Speaker 2: Drop some comments down below, Make sure and like the
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: video subscribe here to the channel. It's one of the
• 1:55
  Speaker 2: places that, of course you can do that. And one thing,
• 1:58
  Speaker 2: by the way, we're going to be doing is a
• 2:00
  Speaker 2: fed FOMC live stream for you guys tomorrow. We try
• 2:04
  Speaker 2: to do those every time an FOMC meeting is happening
• 2:08
  Speaker 2: to kind of get the full report on interest rates,
• 2:11
  Speaker 2: but also take a look at how the FED is thinking.
• 2:13
  Speaker 2: That's the more important thing if you subscribe. Once you subscribe,
• 2:17
  Speaker 2: hit that little bell. It's going to give you notifications
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: when we do those live streams.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: So do that very easy.
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: Other thing to take a look at right now is
• 2:24
  Speaker 2: all time highs driven by spot volumes. People now are
• 2:28
  Speaker 2: pointing at about one point fifteen as its next spot.
• 2:31
  Speaker 2: Couple areas to look at steady surgeon spot volumes and
• 2:34
  Speaker 2: the re emergence of coin based premium in the US session.
• 2:38
  Speaker 2: So this is going to be a good one for
• 2:40
  Speaker 2: again bitcoin. In addition, steady spot buy volumes, positive news
• 2:45
  Speaker 2: flow about bitcoin, and then of course micro strategy also
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: jumping in and buying more bitcoin seems like every week
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: right now, and Sailor has been an absolute gangster in
• 2:56
  Speaker 2: terms of going out and getting bitcoin on a consistent note. Now,
• 3:00
  Speaker 2: I have an interesting contrarian viewpoint by Ronald Powell that
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: I'll get to in a second, but it is one
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: thing that I think a lot of people are looking
• 3:08
  Speaker 2: at right now. Further into this, if you look at
• 3:11
  Speaker 2: other things that are happening, you got to look at
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: the ETF inflows and of course right there the bitcoin
• 3:14
  Speaker 2: ETF inflows have been staggering.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: Look at this.
• 3:17
  Speaker 2: This is from November twenty seven, just after Thanksgiving one hundred,
• 3:21
  Speaker 2: three hundred, three hundred and six hundred, five hundred and
• 3:24
  Speaker 2: seven hundred. These are insane flows right now on.
• 3:28
  Speaker 1: The daily basis.
• 3:29
  Speaker 2: So again, this is pushing the price of bitcoin obviously
• 3:33
  Speaker 2: to where we've seen it coming at one oh eight.
• 3:34
  Speaker 2: Could we see that one ten before weekend? Could we
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: see one fifteen by year end? That's the real question
• 3:40
  Speaker 2: that everybody's asking taking a look at the flows. I
• 3:44
  Speaker 2: want to go to the Bitcoin ETF flows and you
• 3:47
  Speaker 2: can see it right there continuing to start to climb.
• 3:50
  Speaker 2: We kind of zoom in on this a little bit.
• 3:52
  Speaker 2: See that climb right there that's occurring right now. That
• 3:55
  Speaker 2: is interesting because this is since November and here we
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: are into a mid of December and right now holding
• 4:01
  Speaker 2: a continuous upflow in terms, and you kind of see
• 4:05
  Speaker 2: that just the flow dates that are coming through pretty significant.
• 4:08
  Speaker 1: Over the last thirty days.
• 4:10
  Speaker 2: So still very positive and very bullish for bitcoin, and
• 4:13
  Speaker 2: of course that usually means it's bullish for some of
• 4:15
  Speaker 2: the rest.
• 4:16
  Speaker 1: Of the market.
• 4:16
  Speaker 2: Most likely we'll see more all coins start to move
• 4:19
  Speaker 2: even though they've kind of settled down right now, though
• 4:21
  Speaker 2: I anticipate we're going to see an all coin move
• 4:24
  Speaker 2: very quickly. And of course you also have to consider Etheroreum.
• 4:27
  Speaker 2: We'll talk about ethereum, so stick around for that one.
• 4:29
  Speaker 2: The other thing I want to take a look at
• 4:31
  Speaker 2: is the fact that bitcoin ETFs now have flipped US
• 4:33
  Speaker 2: gold ETFs. This is another major milestone because when you
• 4:37
  Speaker 2: look at the markets, and we've had gold investors on
• 4:39
  Speaker 2: here before, you look at the markets of where gold
• 4:42
  Speaker 2: investors are starting to play out, many people who are
• 4:46
  Speaker 2: investing in ETFs often will choose one or the other.
• 4:50
  Speaker 2: You know, they're trying to figure the route to take.
• 4:53
  Speaker 2: And if bitcoin seems to be holding a little bit
• 4:55
  Speaker 2: better performance, could we start to see gold investors starting
• 4:59
  Speaker 2: to vacate go more into the bitcoin etf Right here
• 5:03
  Speaker 2: is Eric Balshunis. He's also expecting a wave of crypto
• 5:06
  Speaker 2: ETFs next year, and he's thinking that there's a handful
• 5:10
  Speaker 2: that could play out here, like coin As being one
• 5:13
  Speaker 2: of them, Hadera hbar As possibly and then also XRP, Salona,
• 5:18
  Speaker 2: non Staria all at one time, but again flowing through.
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: Obviously, we've got to see.
• 5:24
  Speaker 2: Some scenarios change up in the SEC see what their
• 5:27
  Speaker 2: mandate is going to be going forward. But if we
• 5:30
  Speaker 2: start to get some looseness in there, ETFs could start
• 5:33
  Speaker 2: flowing pretty heavily on crypto as a whole. Crypto is
• 5:37
  Speaker 2: also eating tradfi's lunch. Five point seventy five billion coinbased
• 5:41
  Speaker 2: revenue now is beating NASDAC if you look at some
• 5:44
  Speaker 2: of the points. That's kind of interesting here is the
• 5:48
  Speaker 2: amount of I think difference between what's happening in trad
• 5:53
  Speaker 2: five versus what's happening in DEXes and centralized exchanges. That
• 5:59
  Speaker 2: is the intriguing thing to me is that we're seeing
• 6:01
  Speaker 2: a shift, and I've talked about this before, is that
• 6:04
  Speaker 2: the investors that are starting to come into the market
• 6:07
  Speaker 2: are under the age of thirty, under the age of forty,
• 6:10
  Speaker 2: and digital assets is clearly one of the places that
• 6:13
  Speaker 2: they're going. And the other thing is is they don't
• 6:16
  Speaker 2: trust banks, they don't trust traditional finance, and that's why
• 6:19
  Speaker 2: I think you're seeing such a growth move right here.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: I want to go to a real.
• 6:23
  Speaker 2: Quick, interesting clip, real quick, because this one is Sailor
• 6:27
  Speaker 2: talking about how far he will go on buying bitcoin.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: Take a look.
• 6:31
  Speaker 2: Oh, you're the guest of the moment.
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: So is there a limit to how much bitcoin you
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: are going to acquire?
• 6:37
  Speaker 3: No, I've said, We'll just keep buying the top forever.
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: Every day's a good day to buy bitcoin. We look
• 6:44
  Speaker 3: at it as cyber and Manhattan. I would have bought
• 6:47
  Speaker 3: Manhattan one hundred years ago, two hundred years ago. Every
• 6:50
  Speaker 3: year for the past three hundred years. You pay a
• 6:52
  Speaker 3: little bit more than the person that bought Manhattan before you.
• 6:56
  Speaker 3: But it's always a good investment to invest in the
• 6:59
  Speaker 3: economic capital of the free world. You know, the world
• 7:03
  Speaker 3: wants a digital assets framework, and the United States has
• 7:06
  Speaker 3: a great opportunity to define it. Digital assets framework. We
• 7:10
  Speaker 3: need to define the definitions of a digital commodity, a currency,
• 7:14
  Speaker 3: a security, a token, an NFT, and an asset back token.
• 7:18
  Speaker 3: And we need the rights and responsibilities of issuers and
• 7:22
  Speaker 3: the exchanges and the owners. But that takes consensus from
• 7:26
  Speaker 3: the executive brands, the house to send it in the industry,
• 7:28
  Speaker 3: and we didn't have that for the past four years.
• 7:31
  Speaker 3: The opportunity for the US it's it's to issue ten
• 7:34
  Speaker 3: trillion dollars of digital currency and back the dollar. It's
• 7:37
  Speaker 3: to capture fifty trillion dollars of capital gain on the
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: digital capital network. And I do believe with the digital
• 7:45
  Speaker 3: assets framework that this administration could put forward, there's no
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: reason why we won't see five hundred trillion dollars of
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: assets tokenized over the next twenty one years and two
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: hundred and eighty trillion in capital flow into the digital
• 7:57
  Speaker 3: capital network that is bitcoin.
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: And where does that lead Bitcoin's eventual price?
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: My twenty one year forecast is for bitcoin to appreciate
• 8:07
  Speaker 3: about twenty nine percent a year, arr to thirteen million
• 8:11
  Speaker 3: dollars a coin by the year twenty forty five.
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: There you go, thirteen million dollars a coin twenty forty five.
• 8:18
  Speaker 2: Some big statements coming in. And if you look at
• 8:20
  Speaker 2: the comparison to some of the biggest companies out there,
• 8:23
  Speaker 2: remember micro Strategy has not been on the map that long.
• 8:27
  Speaker 2: Really only started buying bitcoin in twenty twenty, and where
• 8:31
  Speaker 2: they are today just four years later. They are now
• 8:34
  Speaker 2: going up against companies like Starbucks and Nike in terms
• 8:38
  Speaker 2: of market cap. And that's if it just goes to
• 8:41
  Speaker 2: one thirty eight. If we continue to see the rallies
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: on bitcoin going forward, this is going to get crazy
• 8:47
  Speaker 2: for micro strategy. Now there are some people out there
• 8:50
  Speaker 2: that are concerned, and anytime you look at a digital
• 8:52
  Speaker 2: asset with a finite supply, you have to look at
• 8:55
  Speaker 2: considerations around centralization.
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: Raoul Powell goes a little bit.
• 9:00
  Speaker 2: Further into detail of the downside to MicroStrategy and bitcoin.
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: Take a look.
• 9:08
  Speaker 4: From a philosophical level, is it right for one entity
• 9:13
  Speaker 4: control or the bitcoin? Okay, that's something. So if you're
• 9:17
  Speaker 4: true to what bitcoin is about, there should be a
• 9:21
  Speaker 4: limit where you say, I don't need to do that.
• 9:22
  Speaker 4: But whatever, I worry more about the leverage it creates
• 9:27
  Speaker 4: in the system because MicroStrategy is treading on the huge premium.
• 9:33
  Speaker 4: That premium is somebody else's arbitrage. And so whether they're
• 9:39
  Speaker 4: buying bitcoin, selling microstrategies, or buying the options from the
• 9:44
  Speaker 4: convertible note, and that the very cheap and selling somewhere
• 9:49
  Speaker 4: within that system is an enormous amount of leverage happening.
• 9:54
  Speaker 4: And I don't worry so much about micro strategies. I
• 9:58
  Speaker 4: worry about the unwind of the other side of the
• 10:00
  Speaker 4: trade because people focus on the micro strategies because it's flashy.
• 10:05
  Speaker 4: But this is what happened with Grayscale. Gray Scale was
• 10:08
  Speaker 4: trading a huge premium. People didn't realize it was creating
• 10:12
  Speaker 4: gigantic leverage, and everything was one trade and there was
• 10:16
  Speaker 4: one big customer three hours capital and when they were
• 10:20
  Speaker 4: forced out of the trade, it took everybody down, including Genesis,
• 10:25
  Speaker 4: who were the arm of Grayscale, right, so they didn't
• 10:30
  Speaker 4: see it coming either. Nobody knew there was one customer
• 10:32
  Speaker 4: and that's very typical of a leverage blowout.
• 10:38
  Speaker 2: So you can see I mean Roul Powell, I think
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: is you know, he's very pragmatic about his approach toward
• 10:44
  Speaker 2: analyzing markets, and you know he's an ex gold mis
• 10:46
  Speaker 2: Sacks guy, and I think people understand where the market
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: sets today and the movement right now with bitcoin is
• 10:52
  Speaker 2: one of concern, especially around centralized Now, if you look
• 10:55
  Speaker 2: at some other analysis on this, even if micro micro
• 10:59
  Speaker 2: strategy word to go bankrupt, it would be only if
• 11:02
  Speaker 2: an asteroid hit Earth. And you look at the comparison here,
• 11:05
  Speaker 2: because you kind of compare against these long term whales
• 11:09
  Speaker 2: and most of which are standing at around thirty K
• 11:12
  Speaker 2: in terms of their cost basis. The other thing you
• 11:14
  Speaker 2: have to kind of look at is the micro strategy
• 11:16
  Speaker 2: debt which is seven billion right now, and it's bitcoin
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: holdings currently worth forty six billions, so its debt to
• 11:22
  Speaker 2: asset ratio is pretty good, and the liquidation price is
• 11:27
  Speaker 2: around sixty five. So I mean, right now it would
• 11:30
  Speaker 2: there's nothing really major that I think would affect it.
• 11:33
  Speaker 2: But again, you just never know how these markets can
• 11:36
  Speaker 2: unwind quickly. I don't think MicroStrategy sells in the next
• 11:41
  Speaker 2: bear market. I think they hold through, and if they
• 11:44
  Speaker 2: do now they may sell some bitcoin, but I don't
• 11:46
  Speaker 2: think that a position shift would occur. They are looking at,
• 11:49
  Speaker 2: as you heard Sailor talk about earlier, is twenty forty five,
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: so guys, they're looking at the next twenty years down
• 11:56
  Speaker 2: the road. Kobeec also kind of looking at what's happening
• 11:59
  Speaker 2: right here with the Magnificent seven, and it's also centralizing
• 12:03
  Speaker 2: a lot of the gains at the top. The mag
• 12:06
  Speaker 2: seven now reflect thirty three percent of the S and
• 12:08
  Speaker 2: P five hundred. This percentage has doubled in just five years,
• 12:12
  Speaker 2: so you can see where the migration is occurring and
• 12:16
  Speaker 2: how everybody is concerned about this. And that's the kind
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: of scenario that we could be playing out in crypto.
• 12:22
  Speaker 2: And now the real question is is how many winners
• 12:24
  Speaker 2: are there going to be outside of the digital asset
• 12:28
  Speaker 2: spectrum of just Bitcoin and ethereum likelihoods, you're going to
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: only see a handful. And I think that's the ones
• 12:33
  Speaker 2: that everybody's betting on now. There are going to be
• 12:35
  Speaker 2: a lot of digital assets, mean coins, things like that
• 12:37
  Speaker 2: that will continue to move, but I think when you
• 12:40
  Speaker 2: look at long term gains, that's the ones that you
• 12:43
  Speaker 2: really have to consider. Ethereum, of course, right now you
• 12:46
  Speaker 2: have to look at and eth is poised for a
• 12:48
  Speaker 2: comeback with a little bit more institutional interests, and this
• 12:51
  Speaker 2: of course has started to line up about I guess
• 12:55
  Speaker 2: third quarter now to where we are today, and Bitcoin
• 12:58
  Speaker 2: versus eth is different kind of trade today with Ethereum
• 13:02
  Speaker 2: now clipping over four K. A couple of points in
• 13:04
  Speaker 2: the article that they hit on which I think are interesting.
• 13:07
  Speaker 2: It led the rally being Bitcoin, but Ethereum maybe the
• 13:10
  Speaker 2: underdog set up for a various significant recovery. And I'd
• 13:14
  Speaker 2: like to know what you guys think. I know we
• 13:15
  Speaker 2: have a lot of eth bugs in the audience out there.
• 13:18
  Speaker 2: You guys like Ethereum hitting an all time high before
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: the year end, or remember we hit four K forty
• 13:23
  Speaker 2: one hundred just the other day. What are your thoughts
• 13:26
  Speaker 2: on it? Give me your price point and give me
• 13:29
  Speaker 2: your all time high of where you think eth might
• 13:31
  Speaker 2: go in the bull run. Just in this bull run,
• 13:35
  Speaker 2: I'm kind of curious as to whether or not you
• 13:37
  Speaker 2: see it blasting through that position of around.
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: Forty eight blackrocks.
• 13:41
  Speaker 2: ETHTF also led the charge, attracting five hundred and twenty
• 13:45
  Speaker 2: three million in weekly inflows, another major win, and then
• 13:48
  Speaker 2: on December fourteenth, another one hundred and eight thousand eighth
• 13:51
  Speaker 2: worth about four hundred and eighteen million were pulled from exchanges,
• 13:55
  Speaker 2: making it the league of the biggest outflow we've seen
• 13:58
  Speaker 2: in a single day since March. Those are good signs
• 14:01
  Speaker 2: because it usually means people are holding looking at staking
• 14:04
  Speaker 2: scenarios like that. That means they expect Ethereum to really
• 14:09
  Speaker 2: continue to perform some time in the future. So love
• 14:12
  Speaker 2: to get you guys's feedback on this. A couple other
• 14:15
  Speaker 2: things you got to look at is the Fed's rate decision.
• 14:18
  Speaker 2: Many people now start starting to look at the beginning
• 14:22
  Speaker 2: of twenty twenty five to be maybe a step back
• 14:25
  Speaker 2: mode for the FED. So we're going to see most
• 14:27
  Speaker 2: likely a quarterbasis points come off tomorrow.
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: We'll be talking about that.
• 14:32
  Speaker 2: But what I'm going to be watching for is Pal's
• 14:35
  Speaker 2: indicators going into his next FOT with the first FOMC
• 14:39
  Speaker 2: meeting of twenty twenty five, because if we get a
• 14:42
  Speaker 2: hold on twenty twenty five, and if inflation continues to rise,
• 14:46
  Speaker 2: that is something that the market needs to take into
• 14:49
  Speaker 2: dire consideration of how this market plays out, especially in
• 14:53
  Speaker 2: the early part of twenty twenty five. We'll be breaking
• 14:55
  Speaker 2: that all down. If you take a look at the
• 14:57
  Speaker 2: charts right now, Bitcoin of course holding at one oh
• 15:00
  Speaker 2: six as we record this. If we go down and
• 15:03
  Speaker 2: take a look at Eth right now, bouncing off.
• 15:05
  Speaker 1: Of that high.
• 15:05
  Speaker 2: Just the other day it had wicked up to four
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: almost forty one hundred ninety nine bucks, but starting to
• 15:12
  Speaker 2: slide sideways again slightly. I think that some of the
• 15:15
  Speaker 2: analysts might be right. This is going to be one
• 15:17
  Speaker 2: to really keep an eye on. Of course, XRP big
• 15:19
  Speaker 2: news there is the RLUSD launch. We started to see
• 15:23
  Speaker 2: this move out. This is on the weekly. If you
• 15:25
  Speaker 2: go to the daily and say, kind of see these
• 15:26
  Speaker 2: green wicks starting to paint up for movement on ripple again,
• 15:32
  Speaker 2: Solana also setting it around two twenty six after a
• 15:34
  Speaker 2: green candle today. So some good movement in the market,
• 15:37
  Speaker 2: but I still think we are in a sideways position.
• 15:40
  Speaker 2: Whether this is leaning up to a Santa rally, who knows.
• 15:43
  Speaker 2: We'll check it out. If you guys are not in
• 15:45
  Speaker 2: the Diamond circle, make sure and get in right now.
• 15:47
  Speaker 2: It's a great place to get additional content. And of
• 15:49
  Speaker 2: course follow me out there on X at Paul Barn.
• 15:52
  Speaker 2: We'll catch you next time right here on Techpath eight