Latest / DEEP INSIGHT / Trump 'hasn't been to a single competitive district' ahead of midterms Punchbowl founder

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Trump 'hasn't been to a single competitive district' ahead of midterms Punchbowl founder · DEEP INSIGHT

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Alex, you know I'm going to start with you. Do
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: you have a comment on John Husted?
• 0:05
  Speaker 2: I love your Bobby Moynihan impression. It was very funny.
• 0:08
  Speaker 2: I was laughing to myself about it. We are in
• 0:11
  Speaker 2: the Fat Elvis stage of this presidency, Katie. He's been
• 0:16
  Speaker 2: doing this routine for 11 years and it's gotten really old.
• 0:18
  Speaker 2: And it's pretty obvious when you see these rallies that
• 0:22
  Speaker 2: the intended audience isn't anybody in the stadium. It's Donald
• 0:25
  Speaker 2: Trump watching on replay. They're trying to keep the old
• 0:28
  Speaker 2: man busy. And it is just like shocking what an
• 0:33
  Speaker 2: assist he's giving Democrats, because as you point out, as
• 0:35
  Speaker 2: the bulwark points out, he's offering nothing substantive. And in fact,
• 0:40
  Speaker 2: his refusal to offer anything substantive shows American voters the
• 0:45
  Speaker 2: fact that the GOP has no plan and is not
• 0:48
  Speaker 2: focused on the things they care the most about, which
• 0:50
  Speaker 2: creates a a huge field of opportunity for Democrats to
• 0:53
  Speaker 2: literally talk about anything of substance, whether it's education, affordability,
• 0:58
  Speaker 2: foreign policy. I mean, they can literally talk about anything
• 1:00
  Speaker 2: and they're already miles ahead of Donald Trump and the
• 1:04
  Speaker 2: rest of the GOP in terms of giving a damn
• 1:07
  Speaker 2: about American life. I mean, I don't know what to
• 1:10
  Speaker 2: say about John Husted's butt, but I can bet that
• 1:14
  Speaker 2: John Husted really wishes that Donald Trump had not chosen
• 1:17
  Speaker 2: to visit Youngstown, Ohio yesterday. Yeah.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: Listen, the rallies have always been a place of absurdity.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: That's always been the case, Ashley. You know it so well.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: But what what is usually there's something else on offer,
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: you know, build the wall, something that he is pitching
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: the American public on. And of late, as we've been
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: pointing out, there just isn't a whole lot there. Why
• 1:43
  Speaker 1: isn't it there any longer?
• 1:46
  Speaker 3: Well, some of it is the difference between being an
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: incumbent president who actually has a tangible record to own
• 1:52
  Speaker 3: and being a challenger, which he was against Joe Biden
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: in 2020. And to his credit, then he made some
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: pretty specific decisions. You know, no more forever wars in
• 2:05
  Speaker 3: the Middle East, that he was going to undo the
• 2:08
  Speaker 3: bad Biden economy that a lot of Americans, including Democrats,
• 2:12
  Speaker 3: didn't like, that interest rates would drop, that prices would
• 2:15
  Speaker 3: come down. And now he is a president where those promises,
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: which people can see and feel every day. simply have
• 2:25
  Speaker 3: not come true. So Katie, as much as I have
• 2:28
  Speaker 3: written and you and I have talked about Donald Trump's
• 2:30
  Speaker 3: ability oftentimes to shape reality to his will, this is
• 2:35
  Speaker 3: one of the things he has run up against a
• 2:38
  Speaker 3: wall at. The other thing I will say, which is
• 2:39
  Speaker 3: kind of fascinating, is if you look not at all
• 2:41
  Speaker 3: of his stops, but a lot of his recent stops
• 2:44
  Speaker 3: have been been to pretty safe red state, deep red
• 2:49
  Speaker 3: parts of red states. I was just with him last
• 2:51
  Speaker 3: week in Nebraska. And so some of these rallies, to
• 2:55
  Speaker 3: Alex's point about being for President Trump to watch later,
• 2:59
  Speaker 3: the crowds there are still adoring right they're the part
• 3:03
  Speaker 3: of the MAGA base that has not deserted him yet
• 3:07
  Speaker 3: but that doesn't really matter in a midterm election in
• 3:12
  Speaker 3: these states that are not that competitive now again Ohio
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: is a different story there are some competitive races there
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: but but lots of what he is saying and doing
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: is received warmly because he's not trying to win back
• 3:24
  Speaker 3: people or persuade people he's running through his greatest hits
• 3:27
  Speaker 3: in a way that feels quite comfortable for him So.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: Jake, I haven't checked in with you regarding Congress lately enough.
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: The poll numbers just keep going down and the chances
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: of Democrats retaking not just the House, but the Senate
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: keep going up. What's the mood like there?
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: Well, the House Republican Super PAC this morning, Katie, pulled
• 3:47
  Speaker 4: out of two districts. Excuse me, Marionette Miller Meeks in
• 3:51
  Speaker 4: Iowa and Tom Kane in New Jersey, districts that have
• 3:54
  Speaker 4: long been, I think we put it as cooked for Republicans.
• 3:58
  Speaker 4: And they're shifting some of that money around the country
• 4:01
  Speaker 4: to other districts. But you'll notice, and I'll echo what
• 4:05
  Speaker 4: Ashley said, President Trump hasn't been to a single competitive
• 4:09
  Speaker 4: district in America. He said he was going to go
• 4:11
  Speaker 4: to 35 districts. competitive districts in the last 30 days
• 4:15
  Speaker 4: of the election he's not been to 35 34 or
• 4:19
  Speaker 4: one to be honest with you he's been to zero
• 4:22
  Speaker 4: um he's toxic in almost every place and and several
• 4:25
  Speaker 4: seats katie are just are are out of reach for
• 4:30
  Speaker 4: republicans and remember the most important thing to keep in
• 4:33
  Speaker 4: mind one of the things to keep in mind is
• 4:35
  Speaker 4: that this is from you know the house republican leadership
• 4:38
  Speaker 4: including the speaker of the house said that they were
• 4:42
  Speaker 4: going to not only keep the majority they were going
• 4:45
  Speaker 4: to expand their majority in 2026 because the tax cut
• 4:50
  Speaker 4: bill they passed was so successful and people and i
• 4:53
  Speaker 4: know the speaker of the house today i think said
• 4:55
  Speaker 4: on fox news or Maybe it was yesterday, but I
• 4:57
  Speaker 4: think it was today. Ignore the polls. I'm out here
• 5:00
  Speaker 4: seeing the crowds. That's Johnson saying that, and we're doing great.
• 5:07
  Speaker 4: There's either a disconnect between what Johnson sees and what
• 5:10
  Speaker 4: the rest of the country sees, or he's just trying.
• 5:14
  Speaker 3: To put a good spin on the ball.
• 5:16
  Speaker 4: But it looks very, very grim right now for House Republicans.
• 5:22
  Speaker 3: Now, do we have a crystal ball? Again, no, we don't.
• 5:24
  Speaker 4: Polls could be wrong, but the And House Republicans are
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: in triage mode. They are trying to take money. They're
• 5:34
  Speaker 4: not trying. They're taking money out of districts, putting them
• 5:38
  Speaker 4: into other districts to try to shore up candidates who
• 5:41
  Speaker 4: have a chance of winning.
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: So what happens? How ugly does it get if these
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: polls turn out to be right and they not only
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: lose the majority, but lose the majority by a lot,
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: lose the Senate, say they lose Kansas, say they also
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: lose Texas, they lose Alaska, these seats that say they
• 5:55
  Speaker 1: lose South Carolina. I mean, obviously, none of those are guaranteed,
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: but those would be major, major blows to the Republican ego.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: How ugly does it get in Congress within the Republican
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: caucus if that's the case, Jake?
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: Well, two things. There's the micro and the macro.
• 6:12
  Speaker 4: The micro is there will be just stinging investigations into
• 6:18
  Speaker 4: everything Donald Trump, everything in his administration. I mean, you
• 6:21
  Speaker 4: look at what happened with Kimberly Guilfoyle today. She was
• 6:24
  Speaker 4: ousted as the ambassador to Greece after the Wall Street
• 6:28
  Speaker 4: Journal wrote about her talking, her asking, allegedly, a Trump
• 6:34
  Speaker 4: donor to pay her Amex bill. Things like that are
• 6:38
  Speaker 4: going to be the subject of probe. You've seen everything
• 6:41
  Speaker 4: that we've read or heard about is going to be
• 6:43
  Speaker 4: the subject of investigations.
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: That's the micro.
• 6:47
  Speaker 4: Now, the macro is there are going to be a
• 6:50
  Speaker 4: sizable number of Republicans who no longer see it in
• 6:53
  Speaker 4: their political advantage to be so closely tied to Trump. Now,
• 6:57
  Speaker 4: it's not going to be everybody. It's not going to
• 6:58
  Speaker 4: be all at once. It's not going to be, you know,
• 7:01
  Speaker 4: on every issue. But if Trump loses the House... and
• 7:05
  Speaker 4: the Senate. He will be the first president to lose
• 7:07
  Speaker 4: the House twice. It will be after his administration pushed
• 7:13
  Speaker 4: states around the country to redistrict, to try to expand
• 7:17
  Speaker 4: their gains, expand their majority, which is coming up flat.
• 7:21
  Speaker 4: It's going to be a real moment of reckoning for
• 7:23
  Speaker 4: the entire Republican Party on Capitol Hill.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: What happens in the White House in that case? Do
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: we see people leaving their positions, Ashley?
• 7:32
  Speaker 3: What happens to J.D.
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: Vance, who has his own aspirations to be president?
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: So it's interesting.
• 7:38
  Speaker 3: One thing we have heard about people leaving their positions,
• 7:41
  Speaker 3: and we should say naturally it's a time after a
• 7:44
  Speaker 3: midterm where people naturally transition, whether they want to make
• 7:47
  Speaker 3: more money, et cetera, et cetera. But one thing we
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: have heard, especially if Democrats take over both chambers, is
• 7:53
  Speaker 3: there is a world in which some of these aides
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: stay a bit longer than they might ordinarily have stayed,
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: in part because they believe that will prevent them from
• 8:04
  Speaker 3: having two higher positions. outside personal lawyers to help them
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: with these investigations, but they would then be covered by
• 8:11
  Speaker 3: the government. So that's a little quirk of one thing
• 8:14
  Speaker 3: we're expecting. You know, it's interesting for J.D. Vance. I,
• 8:18
  Speaker 3: like everyone else, am very interested in what happens in 2028,
• 8:21
  Speaker 3: where things stand between him and Marco Rubio. For a
• 8:24
  Speaker 3: number of reasons, he is the presumptive nominee um or
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: not nominee but the presumptive person who president trump will
• 8:33
  Speaker 3: endorse and will have the easy and obvious momentum if
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: you know we see a real fracturing in the mega
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: base and the That's an interesting question of what happens
• 8:46
  Speaker 3: to Vance. And arguably, it just hurts him. And also,
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: all of this will depend on who President Trump chooses
• 8:53
  Speaker 3: to support, when he chooses to support someone, if he
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: will even endorse someone, if he's going to make everyone,
• 8:58
  Speaker 3: you know, sort of proverbially beg for a rose. And
• 9:02
  Speaker 3: you can see Donald Trump in the lame duck two
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: years of his presidency, if he is feeling desperate because
• 9:08
  Speaker 3: he's lost Congress to hang on to relevancy. just making
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: things harder for his own party and whoever it is
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: would potentially succeed him.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: So, Alex, bear with me, because there are two quotes
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: that I read today that I think go hand in
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: hand and I think speak to this moment in talking
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: about what Donald Trump is left with and the only
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: play that he has left. First, this is out of
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: The New Yorker. David Remnick pulls a quote from James
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: Madison from the Virginia Ratifying Committee. convention for the Constitution,
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: you know, hundreds of years ago. And James Madison was
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: not content on relying on the government itself to do
• 9:46
  Speaker 1: all the work of being good and decent to the people.
• 9:50
  Speaker 1: He argued that it has to be led by good
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: and decent people. He said to suppose that any form
• 9:55
  Speaker 1: of government will secure liberty or happiness without any virtue
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: in the people is a chimerical idea, an imaginary idea.
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: I thought that paired well with something I read from
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: Heather Delaney Reese, who's a political writer. She wrote this
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: in Substack, arguing that Donald Trump is systematically trying to
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: tear us apart. tear apart our shared sense of morality,
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: our history, our ability to disagree without dehumanizing others. He
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: does this because he needs us broken and without hope.
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: He knows that a united country does not need a
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: strong man. Only a broken one does. Are we broken?
• 10:34
  Speaker 2: I was watching footage of that rally, which you didn't play.
• 10:37
  Speaker 2: It's when a protester tries to speak out against Trump
• 10:40
  Speaker 2: and is punched in the face and assaulted by members
• 10:43
  Speaker 2: of the crowd while Trump effectively cheers it on from
• 10:45
  Speaker 2: the podium. And she's bloodied and he's calling her names.
• 10:49
  Speaker 2: And the stadium is erupting into chants of USA, USA
• 10:54
  Speaker 2: to drown her out. And there's been a lot of
• 10:56
  Speaker 2: darkness in the Trump years, but it was such a
• 11:00
  Speaker 2: stunning example of how degraded we've become under this president.
• 11:04
  Speaker 2: And you couple that with Pete Hegseth's announcement that we're
• 11:06
  Speaker 2: going to live stream an execution. The brutality and the
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: ugliness that is so pervasive in our country, I think,
• 11:13
  Speaker 2: is really overwhelming. it is going to be one of
• 11:15
  Speaker 2: Trump's longest lasting legacies. On the flip side, though, Katie,
• 11:19
  Speaker 2: I really do think, and maybe this is me just
• 11:21
  Speaker 2: believing too much in the desire of the human spirit
• 11:25
  Speaker 2: to go towards light and goodness. I do think in 2028,
• 11:28
  Speaker 2: whoever takes his place in the White House is going
• 11:32
  Speaker 2: to be someone that satisfies our innate desire for leadership
• 11:38
  Speaker 2: and for unity. I mean, we as Americans like unity.
• 11:42
  Speaker 2: We like camaraderie. We like feeling like we are in
• 11:45
  Speaker 2: this together. You can feast on anger for only so
• 11:47
  Speaker 2: long before it hollows you out. And I genuinely think
• 11:50
  Speaker 2: Trump has driven this country to depths I did not
• 11:53
  Speaker 2: imagine possible. But I think that the only way to
• 11:57
  Speaker 2: go from there is up. And I'm hopeful.
• 11:59
  Speaker 3: Hey, it's Rachel.
• 12:00
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• 12:01
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• 12:03
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• 12:17
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• 12:21
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• 12:26
  Speaker 2: Thanks.