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The Favorites - NFL Week 1 Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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Speaker 1: It's the Favorites Podcast presented by FanDuel. Football season is here,
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1:25
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from the Volume Podcast Network.
1:30
Speaker 1: I am Chad Milman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
1:34
Speaker 1: I am joined as I am every single show by
1:40
Speaker 1: my bff, my companion Mike and padre my co host
1:44
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter Professional better listen. I'm not gonna lie to you.
1:50
Speaker 1: Before we started recording today, I was a little nervous.
1:55
Speaker 1: It's just a different show. It's a it's a different show.
1:58
Speaker 1: When you are talking about the actual Week one games
2:02
Speaker 1: to bet on, the stakes are higher, they just are.
2:07
Speaker 1: Our show is getting bigger, Chad, I mean, it's good
2:09
Speaker 1: to be back. I mean, it's what the the true
2:13
Speaker 1: first day of school. I guess you could say, it's
2:15
Speaker 1: like we're all here ready to go. It's raining the
2:17
Speaker 1: next two days in the Northeast. That kind of starts
2:19
Speaker 1: feeling like fall a little bit. Should we do some housekeeping,
2:22
Speaker 1: some bona fides? Just because how many new listeners are
2:24
Speaker 1: we gonna have Week one? Everyone's back like we got
2:26
Speaker 1: our true loyal fans who are the smart ones. They
2:29
Speaker 1: got all the good numbers that we gave out all summer.
2:32
Speaker 1: Now the new guys are showing up. The guys who
2:34
Speaker 1: you know, they don't love us, They just love our
2:36
Speaker 1: picks because they love winning money. They're back. Also, we
2:38
Speaker 1: probably should tell everyone our new show dates, right, Chad,
2:41
Speaker 1: No more Tuesday Thursdays. A lot of people saying we're
2:44
Speaker 1: ruining their routine. It's part of the business. People adjust
2:47
Speaker 1: Wednesday's Fridays. It's not that bad. Listen. The show will
2:50
Speaker 1: come out around eleven pm on Tuesday night and eleven
2:54
Speaker 1: pm on Thursday night. A lot of behind the scenes
2:59
Speaker 1: master nation that will bore people about why that has
3:01
Speaker 1: to happen, But look, that's part of the deal. We're
3:04
Speaker 1: gonna roll with it. I was thinking of myself. It
3:07
Speaker 1: feels like the first day of school when I was
3:09
Speaker 1: doing my ten minute peloton full body stretch this morning.
3:15
Speaker 1: You're just an old man. As far as bona fides, listen.
3:19
Speaker 1: For those who don't know, I'll start with myself. I
3:22
Speaker 1: am the chief Content Officer of the Action Network. The
3:24
Speaker 1: Action Network covers everything you need in sports betting in
3:28
Speaker 1: our app, on our website, on our social handles. We
3:32
Speaker 1: are producing hundreds of pieces of content a week focused
3:36
Speaker 1: on sports betting, the sports betting experience. Download the app
3:40
Speaker 1: track your picks. We've tracked north of two hundred and
3:43
Speaker 1: fifty five million picks in our app. It is a
3:46
Speaker 1: vital tool for anybody who was fresh to the gambling experience.
3:50
Speaker 1: I'm kind of a legend in the sports betting media space.
3:53
Speaker 1: I don't know how much I need to go into
3:55
Speaker 1: my background. Let's just say I invented it and I've
3:58
Speaker 1: also written seven books. Sign and go ahead. Chad Millman
4:02
Speaker 1: is proud of himself. This will be my tent season
4:06
Speaker 1: being an actual professional better working for a betting syndicate.
4:09
Speaker 1: I joined Chad. This will be our fourth season again.
4:12
Speaker 1: I didn't want to be on the show, honestly. When
4:14
Speaker 1: I reached out the chat, I simply said to him,
4:15
Speaker 1: can I just send you picks and you can use them.
4:17
Speaker 1: Just you gotta take more underdogs and they're gotta be
4:20
Speaker 1: smart underdogs. And Chad was like, talk to me on
4:22
Speaker 1: the phone. We talked. Next thing, you know, I'm coming
4:24
Speaker 1: on this show fifteen minutes a week for the first year.
4:28
Speaker 1: I came on last year when I Matt Mitchell will
4:31
Speaker 1: blur my face because again, I didn't really want to
4:33
Speaker 1: be on the show, but it's all worked out, like
4:35
Speaker 1: this is your four for me and Chad. The show
4:37
Speaker 1: has grown, it's definitely getting it's definitely different, where like,
4:41
Speaker 1: you know, we got to target on our back. I
4:42
Speaker 1: definitely feel that for sure, and it's like, you know,
4:45
Speaker 1: I don't take it lightly. So this season there's gonna
4:47
Speaker 1: highs and lows. Just understand, I'm working my ass off
4:50
Speaker 1: and Chad is obviously trying his best. It's like, we
4:53
Speaker 1: get it. We want to win too. The goal here
4:55
Speaker 1: is to make you take ugly dogs. I feel like
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Speaker 1: that's what me and Chad are really coming known for.
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Speaker 1: It's been very profitable taking underdogs. So yeah, if you're
5:03
Speaker 1: new to the show, it's gonna feel weird what we do,
5:06
Speaker 1: but it will make sense that the season goes along.
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Speaker 1: As you'll see, there's just these spots in these moments
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Speaker 1: of these underdogs that are just crazy undervalued. So thanks
5:14
Speaker 1: for taking a chance on us, and hopefully, like some
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Speaker 1: of these ugly picks, we're literally about to give in
5:17
Speaker 1: the next two minutes. Here's how the show breaks down
5:19
Speaker 1: on Tuesdays, we go through the entire NFL slate. Simon
5:23
Speaker 1: and I will talk about our early leans. We will
5:26
Speaker 1: give away a Foxhole bet. That is the bet where
5:29
Speaker 1: we are in it together. We feel like everyone is
5:32
Speaker 1: going to be against us. But I want to be
5:34
Speaker 1: in the foxholl with Simon. He wants to be in
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Speaker 1: the foxhow with me. Simon will give his Simon says
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Speaker 1: bet that means bet it right away. I will give
5:40
Speaker 1: him my executive decision bet because I am an executive
5:43
Speaker 1: Bet it right away. You can follow all of these
5:46
Speaker 1: picks follow the Favorites podcast handle in the Action Network app.
5:52
Speaker 1: Producer Matt Mitchell will be loading these into the app
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Speaker 1: every single week um and then on Thursdays we narrow
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Speaker 1: down the slate. We talk about the games that we
6:01
Speaker 1: loved to try to come up with a five favorite
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Speaker 1: that we will enter into a contest in which Simon
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Speaker 1: and I are going to win boatloads of money. Let's
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Speaker 1: get to a brother No more dilly dally, you talk
6:14
Speaker 1: about ugly dogs. Right Thursday Night Football kicking off the
6:19
Speaker 1: season super Bowl Champs against the consensus Super Bowl favorites.
6:23
Speaker 1: The Rams are two and a half point home underdogs
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Speaker 1: higher percentage of bets about the bets and about seventy
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Speaker 1: of the money coming in on the Buffalo Bills Matt
6:37
Speaker 1: Mitchell's Bills mafia. This is excruciating for him. What do
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Speaker 1: you think right off the bat, Simon says, bet the
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Speaker 1: Rams get it right now, let's do and a half.
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Speaker 1: Simon do it? We do? What Sciences? What? Chad? A
6:56
Speaker 1: little fun things going on Downd the scenes. Chad has
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Speaker 1: his nerds hitting me up now for pick. And they're
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Speaker 1: really cool about it, they said, because they know I
7:02
Speaker 1: can't write, like again, I dropped out of college. Your
7:04
Speaker 1: boy cannot right. Uh. They called me up. They'll say,
7:08
Speaker 1: can you give us one or two your best bets?
7:10
Speaker 1: And my favorite bet when I gave right away was
7:13
Speaker 1: the Rams plus two and a half classic overvalue team
7:16
Speaker 1: and a Bills team that's the all hyped team, the
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Speaker 1: super Bowl favorite. Everyone's talking about them. We're getting the
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Speaker 1: defending Super Bowl champion on a discount and in the
7:25
Speaker 1: rare position of I don't think people understand what happened
7:28
Speaker 1: last year with this Bills team, right Everyone just looks
7:30
Speaker 1: at what they did last year, looks at their record
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Speaker 1: without thinking themselves, how did they get to that record,
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Speaker 1: and if you look at their division, they went five
7:38
Speaker 1: and one. That's great outside their division, six and five,
7:42
Speaker 1: That's that's what you have to look at, say what
7:44
Speaker 1: happened outside of the division. Where do they get their wins?
7:46
Speaker 1: Where they get their losses? This is their wins outside
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Speaker 1: their division. Last year they won against Washington, they went
7:52
Speaker 1: against Houston, beat the Chiefs. That's when I got sucked in.
7:55
Speaker 1: Then they beat New Orleans Carolina in Atlanta. That that
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Speaker 1: was are outside of their visions wins. They went one
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Speaker 1: in three against the a FC South. Last year the
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Speaker 1: Bills outside of their division, their only win was against Houston,
8:07
Speaker 1: so they lost to the Jaguars, lost of the Colts,
8:09
Speaker 1: and lost the Tennessee. This is just a classic overvalue
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Speaker 1: Bills team where who can't deny Josh Allen's probably the
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Speaker 1: best quarterback in football right now. It's a team game.
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Speaker 1: So we're getting the all hype team and Bills that
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Speaker 1: a games should be a pick. It's two and a half.
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Speaker 1: They're out of their division, they're playing at a conference
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Speaker 1: against the defending Super Bowl champions against McVeigh who's five
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Speaker 1: and oh at home. I'm not even at home opening night,
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Speaker 1: uh their first game. He's five and out his career.
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Speaker 1: McVeigh has never lost the defending Super Bowl champion at home.
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Speaker 1: In this position of being a underdog, they cover at
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Speaker 1: a six percent clip. So again, there's just all these
8:43
Speaker 1: little trends pointing to it, and Chad knows we love
8:45
Speaker 1: home dogs. So it's like to me, I was hoping
8:48
Speaker 1: to get to the three, hoping the public keep betting up.
8:51
Speaker 1: The books are too smart. They just kept it two
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Speaker 1: and a half. Just take the two and a half
8:54
Speaker 1: for my Simon says, but so listen, I love it, um.
8:59
Speaker 1: While you were talking literally in the first thirty seconds,
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Speaker 1: I want to explain something. I went to the Action app,
9:05
Speaker 1: clicked on the game, I pressed on the RAMS plus
9:07
Speaker 1: two and a half, and then I used this new
9:10
Speaker 1: technology we have that we integrate with fan Duel, who
9:13
Speaker 1: is our sponsor. This is not sort of shameless. This
9:15
Speaker 1: is a cool new tech that we're doing with them.
9:19
Speaker 1: I clicked on it in the app for Action. It
9:21
Speaker 1: took me to fan Duel. I made the bet in
9:23
Speaker 1: about fifteen seconds. It was miraculous. And then I went
9:28
Speaker 1: and tracted in the Action Network app. So everybody should
9:30
Speaker 1: be getting an alert that I just made a pet
9:32
Speaker 1: on the Rams plus two and a half. This whole
9:35
Speaker 1: slate is full of home dogs and it's gonna make
9:37
Speaker 1: us sick, and we're gonna have to bet every single
9:40
Speaker 1: one of them. You can't, you can't not make these bets.
9:45
Speaker 1: You can't sort of randomly choose. You gotta bet them
9:48
Speaker 1: all if you want to take advantage of the full opportunity,
9:51
Speaker 1: which brings me to the next game. Lions plus four
10:00
Speaker 1: against the Philadelphia Eaggles. The lines have been getting a
10:03
Speaker 1: lot of love, right You want to bet over six
10:05
Speaker 1: and a half in the Lions, you gotta pay. That
10:09
Speaker 1: is a weird world. We're paying minus to bet on
10:14
Speaker 1: the Lions over. We love their offensive line. Jared Goff
10:17
Speaker 1: is competent. We love their offensive weapons at skill positions
10:21
Speaker 1: outside of golf. I am in love with Dan Campbell.
10:25
Speaker 1: So this team is Detroit. We're gonna kick you in
10:27
Speaker 1: the teeth and when you punch this, we're gonna smile
10:29
Speaker 1: at you. And when you knock us down, we're gonna
10:31
Speaker 1: get up. And on the way up, we're gonna buy
10:33
Speaker 1: a knee cap off. All right, We're gonna take your
10:35
Speaker 1: other knee cap before long, We're there going to be
10:37
Speaker 1: the last one standing. A lot of hype on this team,
10:40
Speaker 1: but they covered last year at an enormous rate for
10:44
Speaker 1: a team that lost as often as they did. His
10:47
Speaker 1: play calling is uncanny home dog money line taste, but
10:52
Speaker 1: definitely lines plus four executive decision. How already the choice
10:58
Speaker 1: between the unthinkable and the impossible exect decision. We've been
11:07
Speaker 1: tagging this game since May, like when did a week
11:10
Speaker 1: one lines come out? We've been saying Lions, Lions, Lions,
11:13
Speaker 1: And this is what's interesting. As much as we've been
11:16
Speaker 1: talking about and you and I were so immersed in
11:18
Speaker 1: this stuff, we keep thinking everyone loves the Lions. Money wise,
11:24
Speaker 1: the bets are on the Lions, but ticket wise the
11:27
Speaker 1: bets are on the Eagles, So huge discrepancy. You've got
11:29
Speaker 1: a wise guy trend here. Yeah, it's a little bit
11:32
Speaker 1: of wise guy money movement. Right, I'm going at home
11:34
Speaker 1: dog Eagles. We already talked about there. I mean we
11:37
Speaker 1: just talked about the Bills being the hype team. I mean,
11:39
Speaker 1: there is there a more hyped up team right now
11:41
Speaker 1: than the Eagles than not of movement. Their line has
11:43
Speaker 1: had this just last month. Uh, it's been been heavy,
11:48
Speaker 1: and we talked about if you already missed the bets
11:51
Speaker 1: on the Eagles that we were given out. We thought,
11:53
Speaker 1: this is a nice time. You just wait and let
11:55
Speaker 1: them maybe lose this game or lose the next game,
11:57
Speaker 1: go one on one to start the season or oh
11:58
Speaker 1: and two, and then you get good value on this
12:00
Speaker 1: Egos team, where I do think this Egos team is
12:03
Speaker 1: crazy talented. The early weeks here, these teams are not formed.
12:07
Speaker 1: It's just chaos, and that's what me and Chad we're
12:10
Speaker 1: kind of gonna get betting on a lot of chaos
12:11
Speaker 1: early on here. And these are, like Chad just talked about,
12:14
Speaker 1: evening match teams where I think they're both ascending in
12:17
Speaker 1: the right direction. No doubt the Eagles have more talent
12:19
Speaker 1: across the board. But the strength of this Detroit team
12:22
Speaker 1: we already talked about. It's their offensive line. So yeah,
12:26
Speaker 1: Jared golf five and oh a t s career. Uh
12:29
Speaker 1: got lucky last year, right, Some people got a little
12:32
Speaker 1: unlucky if they got the seven and a half not
12:33
Speaker 1: the eight and a half because the number landed on
12:35
Speaker 1: eight again gets the forty nine in week one. So
12:39
Speaker 1: for me, I trust Golf Trust this offense and just
12:42
Speaker 1: the fact that this number is ballooned up. It should
12:44
Speaker 1: just be three, like this is a field goal game.
12:47
Speaker 1: The Egos are clearly the better team, but more than
12:50
Speaker 1: three points, that's that's a bit rich. So I like
12:53
Speaker 1: what Chad saying, take the four, you can still get it.
12:56
Speaker 1: Most people have to take a three and a half,
12:58
Speaker 1: still love the three and a half, So on with
13:00
Speaker 1: I'd take that three and a half Falcons plus five
13:04
Speaker 1: at home against the Saints. I don't get this. Saints love.
13:10
Speaker 1: What's happening right now? People are starting to feel like
13:15
Speaker 1: maybe they have a better roster than the box. I
13:18
Speaker 1: read that this morning. I cannot invest in Jamis. We
13:23
Speaker 1: were in Atlanta Falcons podcast last year. The number has
13:27
Speaker 1: moved up from three and a half to five and
13:30
Speaker 1: a half. Of the money seventy of the bets on
13:35
Speaker 1: the Saints. Why wouldn't we outo bet the Falcons here?
13:41
Speaker 1: I was about to say, chat, what are you doing
13:43
Speaker 1: just going through our favorite bets? But then I realized,
13:45
Speaker 1: I think every game we have favorite bets because we've
13:47
Speaker 1: just been talking about these games for three months. Atlanta,
13:51
Speaker 1: it's just an overlooked team, Like the number, the number screams,
13:57
Speaker 1: please anyone put money on me, like the books need.
14:00
Speaker 1: People are coming in Atlanta. But it was funny that
14:02
Speaker 1: as soon as it touched six, they took a lot
14:04
Speaker 1: of money and moved it right back to five and
14:06
Speaker 1: a half, which means they know the pros are just
14:08
Speaker 1: waiting on that six. Again. It's a key number. Five
14:11
Speaker 1: is kind of five and a half is kind of
14:12
Speaker 1: a dead number. So to me, if you're like me
14:14
Speaker 1: and Chad and you liked this Atlanta game, you don't
14:16
Speaker 1: need to wait for the six. I don't think it's
14:17
Speaker 1: gonna come. I think you're fine taking the five and
14:19
Speaker 1: a half if you just want to get the bet
14:21
Speaker 1: in and get it locked up. But simple strategy here
14:24
Speaker 1: of divisional matchup, rookie head coach on the road with
14:28
Speaker 1: Jamis Winston. Need I say more. It's like, you can
14:32
Speaker 1: have all the Mariota slander you want. He has Drake London,
14:35
Speaker 1: he's got Quitel Paterson the running back, he's got Kyle Pitts.
14:38
Speaker 1: They have all these different weapons on offense. And if
14:41
Speaker 1: you look at his grade inside the twenties, the man's
14:44
Speaker 1: are literally one of the best red zone players in
14:46
Speaker 1: the history of football. The guy just because of the
14:48
Speaker 1: triple threat right the run pass option with him. So
14:51
Speaker 1: for me, I I love getting a doubted Atlanta team
14:55
Speaker 1: here at home opening day against a rookie head coach.
14:58
Speaker 1: UH Chad. Chad gave us out forever ago about one
15:00
Speaker 1: of his favorite bets. I had no doubt this is
15:03
Speaker 1: probably one of one of the bets in our contest.
15:05
Speaker 1: UH might have to be one of our Foxhold bets.
15:07
Speaker 1: But I don't know if we can do three in
15:08
Speaker 1: a row of our game show bets because it's like
15:11
Speaker 1: Chad's railing them off here. But I do just love
15:13
Speaker 1: this game. I feel like this will be one of
15:15
Speaker 1: the less bet teams. Maybe the Jets will be get
15:17
Speaker 1: the least amount of money. I could see Atlanta Week
15:19
Speaker 1: one and get the least amount of money. Every game
15:22
Speaker 1: is a game that we seem to love because there
15:25
Speaker 1: are so many dogs. That's the problem. And we can
15:29
Speaker 1: talk about this Jets game next. Oh no, we suck again.
15:34
Speaker 1: Jets plus seven against the Ravens. This is the one
15:40
Speaker 1: that I know we should bet it, but I don't
15:43
Speaker 1: know who's playing for the Jets. I've got a lot
15:46
Speaker 1: of investment in the Ravens. I think if there's any
15:49
Speaker 1: game we could skip, it's this one because of the
15:52
Speaker 1: uncertainty for the quarterback. I'm heavily invested. I've been betting
15:54
Speaker 1: it for months as one of Like again, one of
15:57
Speaker 1: the readers reached out to me, can you just throw
15:58
Speaker 1: two bets into the app so we can start tracking
16:00
Speaker 1: NFL bets. First two bets I did Ravens minus five
16:04
Speaker 1: and a half Houston plus eight, And it's just the
16:08
Speaker 1: exact same reason here with the Ravens. It's like I
16:11
Speaker 1: thought this line was gonna move and it has. We
16:13
Speaker 1: just we just knew people eventually catch up to this
16:15
Speaker 1: Ravens team. I still think they're being under valued. I mean,
16:19
Speaker 1: we don't know right now. We're meant to do on
16:21
Speaker 1: this show on Tuesday. By Wednesday, won't know if it's
16:23
Speaker 1: gonna be Zack Wilson. If this is Zack Wilson, a
16:26
Speaker 1: guy who hasn't practiced for the last month, coming in
16:28
Speaker 1: cold against this Ravens team with Lamar and this defense,
16:34
Speaker 1: I mean, across the board, this is gonna be everyone's
16:36
Speaker 1: survivor picked. Everyone will be all in on it. So yeah,
16:38
Speaker 1: that's the scary part of it. But I do bet Shalk,
16:41
Speaker 1: Like there are times I'd take a position when I
16:43
Speaker 1: think that there's a bad number. Seven is good, like
16:46
Speaker 1: that is where it should be. I would take the seven,
16:49
Speaker 1: and I'd be concerned if it was Flacco, just because
16:51
Speaker 1: of that. You know that veteran game. We always see
16:54
Speaker 1: it all the time. These veteran quarterbacks have one good
16:56
Speaker 1: game and then they suck for the next five. That's
16:58
Speaker 1: just stinks for like a flac Oh moment against his
17:01
Speaker 1: former team. But I would not change my position. If
17:03
Speaker 1: you're already been in the Ravens and his Flacco, I
17:05
Speaker 1: would still let a ride just for me and Chad.
17:07
Speaker 1: I don't know if this would be one of our
17:09
Speaker 1: picks in the contest, but if it's Zack Wilson, Chad's
17:11
Speaker 1: gonna fight me on it. But I'm gonna be trying
17:13
Speaker 1: to get it in there because it's like, literally the
17:15
Speaker 1: kid has not practiced for a month until this week.
17:18
Speaker 1: You know, that's really hard to do. If you're Tom Brady,
17:21
Speaker 1: it's hard to do. If you're Zack Wilson, it's impossible.
17:24
Speaker 1: You're gonna be fighting to get the Ravens even at
17:27
Speaker 1: seven into the contest. If it's Zack Wilson. If it
17:31
Speaker 1: was seven, I would If it was seven a half,
17:33
Speaker 1: I would not be I would not try to put
17:34
Speaker 1: it down. I think this Jets team might be one
17:37
Speaker 1: of the worst teams in football. Yeah, I told you,
17:41
Speaker 1: I'm I bet them for a worst record. Again, it's
17:42
Speaker 1: just because the a f C is so brutally tough. Yeah,
17:45
Speaker 1: the a f C is tough. And look, everyone overhyped them.
17:49
Speaker 1: This was a team I bet under five and a
17:50
Speaker 1: half at plus one thirty five because they won the
17:54
Speaker 1: off season, they won the draft, and everybody bet the
17:57
Speaker 1: over five and a half and it made no sense,
18:00
Speaker 1: but everyone bought in because it's the fucking Jets, and
18:03
Speaker 1: it's New York and half of everybody in the media
18:05
Speaker 1: is enamored with them, as if it's like an ironic
18:08
Speaker 1: team to root for because they're so bad. I wouldn't
18:11
Speaker 1: mind taking the seven if it's If it's a Zach Wilson,
18:14
Speaker 1: that'll be an interesting conversation we have on Sunday the
18:17
Speaker 1: Bengals defending a f C champs against the Mitch true
18:21
Speaker 1: Bisky lead Pittsburgh Steelers. There's six and a half point favorites.
18:29
Speaker 1: This kind of feels right to me. Yeah, to me,
18:33
Speaker 1: this is way too high. Just a lot of respect
18:36
Speaker 1: to Joe what Joe did last year about realizing what's
18:40
Speaker 1: what's the Bengals makeup? They win ugly close games. Now
18:43
Speaker 1: you could say they've changed without the same team they
18:45
Speaker 1: were last year. But the a f C North, it's
18:48
Speaker 1: like it just never ends. It's literally a never ending
18:52
Speaker 1: circle of these teams just play each other tough, tight games,
18:55
Speaker 1: defensive battles, and we're getting the benefit of no one
19:00
Speaker 1: wants to bet Pittsburgh right when they chatted last time
19:02
Speaker 1: we checked. I think there are plus nine hundred for
19:04
Speaker 1: this division. They're left for dead because no one's behind
19:07
Speaker 1: the mixture of biscuit business and we talk all the time.
19:09
Speaker 1: I look at that team again. One of the worst
19:12
Speaker 1: offensive lines in football, no denying that, But at the
19:15
Speaker 1: skill positions, you can't find more talent on offense. They
19:18
Speaker 1: have a skill position at every position on from my
19:21
Speaker 1: receiver tight end to running back. Mitch. We've seen it.
19:24
Speaker 1: The guy can game manager game. So I was hoping
19:27
Speaker 1: this wasn't at the seven, right. That's me being greedy
19:30
Speaker 1: but happy to take the value six and a half.
19:32
Speaker 1: I had this number three and a half. It's no
19:36
Speaker 1: disrespect to Joe. I think this since an a team.
19:38
Speaker 1: We I gave him out as a wild card team.
19:40
Speaker 1: I do think they're gonna be good this year. This
19:42
Speaker 1: is a trap, like we're gonna talk about a round
19:44
Speaker 1: robin we do on Thursday. How do you not take
19:49
Speaker 1: the money along in this Pittsburgh team a divisional game?
19:52
Speaker 1: The team that lost in the super Bowl historically is
19:54
Speaker 1: terrible A t s uh. It's it's just a bad
19:57
Speaker 1: spot for this Bangles team to be in and and
20:00
Speaker 1: the best parties that they're at home, which to me,
20:02
Speaker 1: that's that's good for us. We want this Pittsburgh team
20:04
Speaker 1: on the road because that's what you like with the defense,
20:06
Speaker 1: that gets them fired up, being the bad boys in
20:08
Speaker 1: that stadium. So yeah, it's yeah, and there's so many
20:11
Speaker 1: other dogs we love. But if this makes into our contest,
20:14
Speaker 1: you never know. But to me, this is an auto play.
20:17
Speaker 1: You just play a divisional foe like this for a
20:20
Speaker 1: final five. It'll be hard. I mean, I already know
20:23
Speaker 1: we love the Lions and the Falcons at four and
20:25
Speaker 1: five and a half and we're four games into this, right,
20:29
Speaker 1: But you make some good points about Pittsburgh division foe Like,
20:32
Speaker 1: when do these games ever land in the final score
20:37
Speaker 1: at more than three? That tends to be the case.
20:40
Speaker 1: So six and a half I think is a little
20:42
Speaker 1: bit over inflation in the Bengals. Mike Tomlin. By the way,
20:45
Speaker 1: rah Ras spot what ra ra? Mike Tomlin spot we
20:51
Speaker 1: win the game? Were bodies right here today today we
20:58
Speaker 1: almost went through an entire game without mentioning. Mike Tomlin
21:02
Speaker 1: in an Underdog on the road Mike Tomlin, spot man.
21:06
Speaker 1: We make the simple complex in this business, don't we
21:09
Speaker 1: All of a sudden. If this isn't the first game
21:12
Speaker 1: that we put in our contest, I think we're crazy.
21:14
Speaker 1: And we're going to hear from people saying the Bengals
21:16
Speaker 1: swept them last year and they dominated Pittsburgh and both matches.
21:19
Speaker 1: That is a fair argument, but again, it's a new year.
21:23
Speaker 1: It's like you have to adjust this year and this
21:26
Speaker 1: is just even even if they dominated last year, this
21:28
Speaker 1: is just a bad spot for this Bangals team. Not
21:30
Speaker 1: so much. I think Pittsburgh approved that much. It's just
21:32
Speaker 1: a lot more goes into it than simply on piece
21:35
Speaker 1: of paper what these teams do against each other. We
21:38
Speaker 1: shouldn't note that last year we got off to a
21:42
Speaker 1: not great start, and I think we were we were
21:45
Speaker 1: in our head, we weren't playing to our principles, which
21:49
Speaker 1: as you've noted, we like to play home dogs, we
21:53
Speaker 1: like to play ugly dogs, we like to play the value.
21:56
Speaker 1: And so I think we just got to remind ourselves
21:59
Speaker 1: every single day, every single show, every single week, like
22:05
Speaker 1: stick with our guns, don't get caught up in the hype,
22:09
Speaker 1: don't listen to the voices, go with what we know
22:13
Speaker 1: and that then the Briggs, can you tell me how
22:15
Speaker 1: often are pro actually wins any of these contests? Never?
22:17
Speaker 1: It's just you need a lot of luck. But I'm
22:19
Speaker 1: with you, like if we if if those glory let
22:22
Speaker 1: there's those down days, like Chad saying I'm gonna need
22:24
Speaker 1: chry to smack me around a little bit and be like, no,
22:26
Speaker 1: stick stick to what it gets us to the that
22:29
Speaker 1: what we need to do is like that dogs at home,
22:32
Speaker 1: That's kind of what we gotta stick to because a
22:34
Speaker 1: lot of times we get scared because we were like
22:36
Speaker 1: losing on some of them. Just gotta stick stick with it.
22:39
Speaker 1: Dolphins have moved up from two and a half point
22:41
Speaker 1: favorites at home against the Patriots to three and a
22:44
Speaker 1: half seventy of the money of the bets. This is
22:50
Speaker 1: a pass for me. At three and a half, I
22:52
Speaker 1: could see how you'd say, all right, take the Patriots.
22:56
Speaker 1: Take the hook at plus three and a half. At
22:58
Speaker 1: two and a half, I kind of love the Dolphins.
23:02
Speaker 1: The money has moved too much for me. Yeah, it sucks.
23:04
Speaker 1: I love the Dolphins. Like this was a no brainer.
23:06
Speaker 1: Been betting it all summer two two and a half,
23:09
Speaker 1: even bet it again at three because I was like, forget,
23:11
Speaker 1: that's still a good number. Now you have to bet.
23:13
Speaker 1: You have to bet the Patriots of three and a half.
23:15
Speaker 1: It's like, how have we not We've all seen the data.
23:18
Speaker 1: These rookie head coaches are just not good week one.
23:21
Speaker 1: I think again it's our guy Evan put out that
23:23
Speaker 1: arc collaborate Abrahams three and eighteen or three nineteen since
23:27
Speaker 1: and week one straight up, it's just it's not good.
23:30
Speaker 1: So scared of the only only thing pausing to me
23:34
Speaker 1: is honestly that the coaching like Bill Belichick against a
23:37
Speaker 1: rookie head coach week one scary. But Miami talent wise
23:42
Speaker 1: is so far above better than this Patriots team, and
23:44
Speaker 1: everything Miami does well. Speed is the biggest weakness of
23:48
Speaker 1: this new England team. Like people are gonna be blown
23:51
Speaker 1: away how fast this Miami team is. It's like it's
23:55
Speaker 1: gonna to be very interesting to see how this new
23:57
Speaker 1: England team tries to defend it as they are bad
24:00
Speaker 1: on defense now, Like people don't realize that that's one
24:02
Speaker 1: of their bigger weaknesses now is their defense. So again,
24:05
Speaker 1: their fronts good, but their back end is not that good.
24:07
Speaker 1: So I love Miami, but like Chad said, we're gonna
24:09
Speaker 1: pass on this one. This next game, Jacksonville Jaguars Trevor
24:14
Speaker 1: Lawrence visiting the Washington Commanders. This game has dropped. The
24:20
Speaker 1: Jags opened as four point dogs, they're now two and
24:23
Speaker 1: a half. Anyone who is new to the podcast should
24:26
Speaker 1: know Simon and I have an irrational love for the
24:31
Speaker 1: Jaguars right now. My theory is that Doug Peterson was
24:34
Speaker 1: the genius on that Eagles team, and he's the one
24:36
Speaker 1: who coached Nick Foles to greatness, not Frank Reich who's
24:40
Speaker 1: gotten a lot of the credit as the offensive coordinator
24:43
Speaker 1: on that Eagles team that won the Super Bowl. Doug
24:45
Speaker 1: Peterson would with Trevor Lawrence who could potentially be a
24:49
Speaker 1: generational talent, is primed for a massive leap, not dissimilar
24:53
Speaker 1: than what Joe Burrow did last year. Um, it happens.
24:57
Speaker 1: It happens all the time. I got Trevor Lawrence plus
25:02
Speaker 1: at seventy one to lead the league in passing touchdowns.
25:08
Speaker 1: We both like the Jags as long as shots to
25:12
Speaker 1: win their division, the a f C South. Everything is
25:19
Speaker 1: on the Jags right now. That's and money. So do
25:23
Speaker 1: you still like it at two and a half? And like,
25:25
Speaker 1: that's what sucks about doing the show this week one.
25:27
Speaker 1: It's like some of these numbers have just moved too much. Yes,
25:30
Speaker 1: we are all in on the Jaguars. They should lose
25:33
Speaker 1: this game. Like the Washington Commanders are pretty much the
25:37
Speaker 1: same exact team as the Jaguars are for the most part, honestly,
25:39
Speaker 1: Like you just look it on paper. Again, I want
25:42
Speaker 1: I love the shot on Carson Wentz because it's fun,
25:45
Speaker 1: He's not that terrible, and they have pretty pretty good
25:47
Speaker 1: weapons on this Washington team. So yeah, at four points,
25:51
Speaker 1: this was a really really good value and an easy pick.
25:55
Speaker 1: Even at three points that probably would have taken the Jaguars.
25:58
Speaker 1: But I have this game at and a half. Now
26:00
Speaker 1: there's a lot the move is shifted to the Commanders.
26:04
Speaker 1: I just won't bet it because I'm already invest in
26:06
Speaker 1: the Jaguars. But yeah, I'm terrified, Like it feels like
26:09
Speaker 1: we're about to have the Jaguars start. Oh one chat,
26:11
Speaker 1: I'm gonna feel like an idiot. But coming into us,
26:13
Speaker 1: I love this game because it was just it's just
26:16
Speaker 1: too egally evenly match teams where a number should have
26:18
Speaker 1: been three two and a half because again, there's no
26:20
Speaker 1: real home field advantage. Right for Washington, their fans they
26:23
Speaker 1: hate them, like they're they really calling themselves the Commies.
26:25
Speaker 1: They just they do not like this organization. So we
26:29
Speaker 1: talked about it. I don't know how many times when
26:30
Speaker 1: we betting on Washington. Eventually the value is going to
26:32
Speaker 1: be there and we will have to take Washington. They're
26:34
Speaker 1: probably my least favorite team to bet on this season
26:37
Speaker 1: until Deshaun Watson comes back. For right now, Washington, I
26:40
Speaker 1: just I hate betting on So I'm gonna pass on
26:42
Speaker 1: this all right. We're gonna have to pass on the
26:46
Speaker 1: Jags as much as we love them. Now we're gonna
26:49
Speaker 1: have to spend a couple of minutes talking about a team.
26:55
Speaker 1: For people who don't know. Simon and I are on
26:58
Speaker 1: a show called Convince Me every Sunday at eleven a
27:03
Speaker 1: m Eastern. You can catch it on Twitter, on the
27:05
Speaker 1: Action Network Candle. You can catch it in the Action
27:07
Speaker 1: Network app. It's me, It's Simon, It's Chris Raban, It's
27:11
Speaker 1: Sean Kerner, it's Darren Rivel, it's Samantha Prividi. We're all
27:16
Speaker 1: talking about the games. We did a preview show last week.
27:20
Speaker 1: I kind of love the Niners to represent the NFC
27:23
Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl right now. They're sixteen to want
27:25
Speaker 1: to win the Super Bowl. But I also love the
27:27
Speaker 1: Bears as a hometown Chicago fan. The Bears are plus
27:32
Speaker 1: seven in this spot. If not for my anti Bears
27:37
Speaker 1: bias as a fan, this would be an automatic play
27:42
Speaker 1: to me. And the way the percentages are shaping up,
27:46
Speaker 1: the bests on the Niners sixty eight of the money
27:52
Speaker 1: on the Bears, So the wise guys see it that
27:54
Speaker 1: way too. Yeah, I bet this game like a damn coward.
27:58
Speaker 1: It's one of the few games I've met like a
27:59
Speaker 1: cow Uh. Took took forty nine first half, took Bears
28:04
Speaker 1: for the game. I just didn't really know what to
28:05
Speaker 1: do with it. It's stinks. This line stinks. I don't
28:08
Speaker 1: get why I didn't stay at seven. Why is it
28:10
Speaker 1: not st going up and stayed up? Who is betting
28:13
Speaker 1: the Bears? Other their professionals, like other than Bears fans
28:16
Speaker 1: who are betting. I just don't I don't get what
28:18
Speaker 1: people are seeing this. I guess because they had that
28:20
Speaker 1: one end of the game, end of the preseason fields
28:23
Speaker 1: through the three touchdowns. But it's like the talent level
28:27
Speaker 1: on these two teams, it's not comparable, like it's it's
28:30
Speaker 1: really night and day. Um. The Bears did draft good though,
28:33
Speaker 1: chat like you're you should be excited about this regime
28:35
Speaker 1: right now because they are apparently making good draft picks.
28:38
Speaker 1: They had no good pick slash. I don't think they
28:40
Speaker 1: had a first round pick right, and they end up
28:43
Speaker 1: getting two guys that are starting for you this year
28:45
Speaker 1: on defense, which again could be scary, but they've looked
28:48
Speaker 1: they've played well, uh this preseason. So to me, I
28:51
Speaker 1: don't know what to really do with this Bears team
28:53
Speaker 1: because I want to fade them heavily. But taking a
28:56
Speaker 1: I guess you could say is the second year quarterback
28:58
Speaker 1: in Trey Lance take him in his first start of
29:00
Speaker 1: the year on the road. I mean, that's that's a
29:03
Speaker 1: lot to ask of him. So I do think first
29:06
Speaker 1: half is a smart bet. With the sport Owners team,
29:08
Speaker 1: they can come out, Kyle can scheme up the first
29:11
Speaker 1: thirty place for him. It's once he goes off off,
29:13
Speaker 1: you know script, and he's in the second half. That's
29:16
Speaker 1: him a little worried about Trey Lance. So to me,
29:18
Speaker 1: if you're gonna bet this game, you can bet it
29:20
Speaker 1: like I am. I'm just doing first half for Niners
29:22
Speaker 1: and then I'll take the Bears for the full game,
29:24
Speaker 1: just because I feel like this game is gonna land
29:26
Speaker 1: on six. It's just the way the books have been
29:28
Speaker 1: keeping it at that number. It's as if they know
29:30
Speaker 1: something like this game will be closer than people think.
29:32
Speaker 1: But we do have to play the Bears at plus seven. Yeah, yeah,
29:38
Speaker 1: no doubt, but you can't. You just can't ignore it. Yeah,
29:44
Speaker 1: and again it's this would be this is probably my
29:46
Speaker 1: second or third smallest bet because I just don't don't
29:50
Speaker 1: really like this Bears team, like we talked about it.
29:53
Speaker 1: But there's gonna be a bunch of times me and
29:54
Speaker 1: Ted are gonna have to bet the number. And we've
29:57
Speaker 1: just seen the time and time again the Bears at home,
29:59
Speaker 1: because you when you have to take this team like
30:01
Speaker 1: they're a bad team, where they're at home, that's when
30:03
Speaker 1: you want them. Kick off Week one with FanDuel, America's
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Speaker 1: West Virginia. The Baker Ball Panthers numbers come down by
32:00
Speaker 1: the way well and opened it four a while ago,
32:02
Speaker 1: but with Baker has been you know, the two and
32:04
Speaker 1: a half range. Now it's minus two playing Jacobe Brissette
32:09
Speaker 1: and the Cleveland Browns. Baker Mayfield, I'm gonna fuck him
32:12
Speaker 1: up revenge. I'm a huge Panthers fan. I like the
32:16
Speaker 1: over six and a half. I think Baker is an
32:18
Speaker 1: interesting long shot for a variety of passing props. Why
32:22
Speaker 1: aren't I taking the Panthers minus two here is a
32:25
Speaker 1: short home favorite. In fact, for the record, you can
32:27
Speaker 1: check in the action app. I did take him to
32:29
Speaker 1: two and a half. Another game where I kind of
32:33
Speaker 1: bet early. We all kind of bet Carolina early on
32:35
Speaker 1: because they were plus three plus four, just because at
32:38
Speaker 1: the time Watson was gonna play. And then as the
32:41
Speaker 1: months rolled on, the numbers started coming down, and then
32:43
Speaker 1: once they traded for Baker flipped and then once the
32:46
Speaker 1: Watson news came out, Chad said, it shot up the
32:48
Speaker 1: four three and a half. The pros beded back down
32:51
Speaker 1: because it's like, this is not that I'm saying this
32:54
Speaker 1: is your season, Carolina, but you have to start off good,
32:58
Speaker 1: like this team needs to start hot with Baker. I
33:00
Speaker 1: want to know you need to start that way. So
33:03
Speaker 1: I don't like the position I'm in with this Carolina
33:06
Speaker 1: team that I feel like they have the pressure on them,
33:08
Speaker 1: that the Browns will be playing free. Everyone's awful. The
33:11
Speaker 1: expectations are very low. Jakober said it is not a
33:14
Speaker 1: good quarterback. So yeah, blind picking, I would take Carolina.
33:18
Speaker 1: But this is again another one of these very small
33:20
Speaker 1: bets for me. I just I just don't know what
33:22
Speaker 1: to really do with this game because I don't know
33:23
Speaker 1: what I'm getting from this Browns team. They on paper,
33:25
Speaker 1: they have more talent to this Carolina team, but we've
33:28
Speaker 1: seen Baker like Baker with talent around him to make
33:32
Speaker 1: things happen. Again, he took this Brown's team just two
33:34
Speaker 1: years ago the NFC Championship games, So I get why
33:37
Speaker 1: Chad so hyped in this Carolina team. I'm excited just
33:40
Speaker 1: to wait and see before I start putting six figures
33:43
Speaker 1: or five figures into Baker Mayfield led Carolina Panthers when
33:48
Speaker 1: he's healthy and has talent. The ceiling for Baker Mayfield
33:54
Speaker 1: is consistently higher, considerably higher than he's being given credit for.
33:58
Speaker 1: That's really just the bottom line. He just makes the
34:00
Speaker 1: dumbest fucking decisions. Chad's gonna have a moment, Baker's gonna
34:03
Speaker 1: throw a pick, and you're like, fuck Baker, I fucking
34:05
Speaker 1: hate this guy. I feel like there's so much pressure
34:08
Speaker 1: on Carolina in just week one them in Miami. I
34:10
Speaker 1: feel like, are the two teams of the highest pressure,
34:12
Speaker 1: Like Miami needs to beat in New England to start
34:14
Speaker 1: the year or man, people are gonna lose their minds
34:17
Speaker 1: down there in Miami. You mentioned this off the top.
34:20
Speaker 1: The Texans number has moved the Texans against the Colt
34:24
Speaker 1: to move from eight and a half to seven. I
34:26
Speaker 1: bet the Texans at plus eight and a half on Sunday,
34:31
Speaker 1: it's now Tuesday, it's at seven. I'm looking at Action
34:34
Speaker 1: network dot com right now, and you can get all
34:36
Speaker 1: this information on the site and in the app. So
34:39
Speaker 1: when I quote percentage of bets percentage of money, I'm
34:43
Speaker 1: getting it off of Actions properties. The biggest delta between
34:48
Speaker 1: number of bets and percent of money is on the Texans.
34:53
Speaker 1: Of the bets are on the Texans. So basically the
34:56
Speaker 1: public are betting on the Texans over the Olds, but
35:01
Speaker 1: nine percent of the money of the money is generally
35:06
Speaker 1: that's the wise guys biggest delta, second biggest delta. Our
35:11
Speaker 1: third biggest delta is the Bears and the Niners, and
35:14
Speaker 1: we'll get to the second one in a little bit.
35:17
Speaker 1: We haven't gotten there yet. Even at seven, I'd play
35:20
Speaker 1: the Texans. They're better than we think. They performed better
35:23
Speaker 1: than we thought they would last year. We believe in
35:25
Speaker 1: Davis Mills is a quarterback. Frank Reich. His team is
35:29
Speaker 1: always underperform. I'm a mind that Frank Wright probably isn't
35:32
Speaker 1: as good a coach as everyone believes him to be.
35:34
Speaker 1: His teams have generally underperformed, even though he's had eight quarterbacks. Like,
35:38
Speaker 1: that's your job, dude. You play the guys you got
35:41
Speaker 1: and then you win. Give me the Texans here. I
35:43
Speaker 1: like him at seven, probably the lowest I like him,
35:46
Speaker 1: but I like him at seven. Yeah, and Frank Reich
35:49
Speaker 1: has never covered Week one. And as I mean, it's
35:51
Speaker 1: a young coaching career, it's what year four formed. But again,
35:54
Speaker 1: these teams have historically come out slow. Last year, I
35:56
Speaker 1: think their own four colts start the year. So we
35:59
Speaker 1: love all things about this Houston team. We already checking,
36:01
Speaker 1: already touched on it. We just knew this was a
36:04
Speaker 1: bad number. We're lucky we both locked in an eight
36:06
Speaker 1: and a half. This was my second best bet I
36:08
Speaker 1: gave out, So I give off the rams um on
36:11
Speaker 1: the action app writing it. And then this is the
36:13
Speaker 1: other pick I gave out, just the fact that said
36:16
Speaker 1: in the article, eight and a half is just too
36:18
Speaker 1: many points in the divisional game Week one between these
36:20
Speaker 1: two teams. That again the Colts they beat him last year. Good,
36:25
Speaker 1: they beat their crap out of Houston. They beat him
36:26
Speaker 1: twice last year. I think both times were over thirty points.
36:29
Speaker 1: This Houston team is completely different, the things they've added,
36:32
Speaker 1: the update they've done on defense. Again, say what you
36:35
Speaker 1: want about Lovey Smith. I do think he is a
36:37
Speaker 1: smart defensive mind. I just like this Houston team and
36:40
Speaker 1: Chat I might begin sucked in here, I might be
36:42
Speaker 1: drinking too much of the kool aid, but all the
36:44
Speaker 1: pros are with us. Like I've every product talked to,
36:46
Speaker 1: They've loved this number and they were gonna come in
36:49
Speaker 1: heavy on it this week, and they did so. The
36:51
Speaker 1: number dropped a seven. It's gonna half. Other pros came
36:54
Speaker 1: back on the other side, right get a middle position
36:56
Speaker 1: at that six and a half. They bet it back
36:57
Speaker 1: up to seven Fandel, I believe that's seven and a
37:01
Speaker 1: half right now in Jersey, and that number keeps fluctuating.
37:03
Speaker 1: So to me, if you didn't get the day and
37:06
Speaker 1: a half, you could wait. But it's a little risky
37:08
Speaker 1: because it could drop down a six and a half
37:09
Speaker 1: and that crossed another key number of seven, so you
37:12
Speaker 1: could get seven half of fandor right now. I would
37:14
Speaker 1: grab that just in case. But yeah, no brainer played
37:17
Speaker 1: divisional game at home. Dog. I love it. My only
37:21
Speaker 1: pause right now is the fact that, shoot, it's so
37:26
Speaker 1: much love for Houston, like all every proctol. I haven't
37:29
Speaker 1: talked to a single pro that's on the Colts, which
37:31
Speaker 1: is very rare because usually there's a couple of guys
37:33
Speaker 1: you like chalk a little scary. It feels like I'm again,
37:36
Speaker 1: I'm heavily invested in this, uh this this Houston team
37:39
Speaker 1: just for a week one. But you can't not take
37:42
Speaker 1: that number. Like Chad said, it's such a big number
37:44
Speaker 1: for week one. The Raiders very interesting team. I know
37:49
Speaker 1: how much you love the Raiders. They're on the road
37:52
Speaker 1: at the Chargers. Las Vegas is a three and a
37:54
Speaker 1: half point underdog, getting a preponderance of the money against
37:59
Speaker 1: the Chargers team that everyone believes might be the most
38:02
Speaker 1: talented top to bottom roster in the NFL. And if
38:05
Speaker 1: there is anyone who was expected to win the division
38:09
Speaker 1: other than the Chiefs, probably the best division in the
38:11
Speaker 1: a f C West with four fantastic quarterbacks, it is
38:16
Speaker 1: the Los Angeles Chargers. This is probably a pass for me. Yeah,
38:20
Speaker 1: I'll pass too, because this line stinks like to me,
38:23
Speaker 1: they're they're begging me to take this Raider's team. They
38:25
Speaker 1: know I want to take that three and have so bad.
38:27
Speaker 1: But I look at a team in Vegas that have
38:31
Speaker 1: a new head coach learning a new scheme on the road,
38:35
Speaker 1: they probably have more fans though honestly right they'll probably
38:37
Speaker 1: have more fans in the Chargers in l A. But
38:40
Speaker 1: I feel like this is a good spot to take
38:42
Speaker 1: this Chargers team. You got Herbert at home with the
38:44
Speaker 1: head coach that they're running the same system as that
38:47
Speaker 1: it last year him in his OUFC. So I wish
38:50
Speaker 1: I could bet it. I wish I had the confidence
38:51
Speaker 1: take this Chargers team. There's just other games that I
38:54
Speaker 1: like better. So I will be betting the Chargers, but
38:57
Speaker 1: not not going to be one of the five We
38:59
Speaker 1: we land the next game on the docket here, and
39:03
Speaker 1: I just want to say, we thought there'd be so
39:05
Speaker 1: many games that we want to bet. The truth is,
39:08
Speaker 1: I think there's right now three that we feel really
39:11
Speaker 1: good about, four that we're like maybe, so it's not
39:15
Speaker 1: as cut and dry as we thought, well it is.
39:18
Speaker 1: I'm just I'm trying to keep the show, you know,
39:20
Speaker 1: excitement go as we go on here. All right, Vikings
39:24
Speaker 1: plus one and a half against the Packers. I'm surprised
39:30
Speaker 1: um this this number has moved down and opened a
39:32
Speaker 1: two and a half. I'm surprised at the amount of
39:34
Speaker 1: money coming in on the Packers because to me, I
39:39
Speaker 1: don't like this game because I think we've lost value
39:41
Speaker 1: and I want to bet the best of the number.
39:43
Speaker 1: But the Vikings are the side here, you know, and
39:46
Speaker 1: this is I'll get in trouble. I break my own rules,
39:48
Speaker 1: like I like Green Bay. I just there's two bunch
39:51
Speaker 1: being made about the green Bay wide receivers and it's
39:54
Speaker 1: like as if people don't realize there's always guys living,
39:58
Speaker 1: Like people don't even know who Greg Jennings is, lester
40:00
Speaker 1: of certain age, like that guy left. Jordy Nelson stepped
40:03
Speaker 1: up and then that a guy named Jones stepped up,
40:06
Speaker 1: and then Davante Adams stepped up. There's just always the
40:08
Speaker 1: next guy up for Green Bay at wide receiver, Like
40:11
Speaker 1: they find these guys and Rogers makes them great. So
40:14
Speaker 1: I saw the under get hit and I saw in
40:16
Speaker 1: Minnesota get hit. So that's professional bets and professional movement.
40:20
Speaker 1: So if you want to beg with Green Bay with me,
40:22
Speaker 1: you just understand you're going against guys like Chad and
40:24
Speaker 1: other pros that are like you're taking a home dog divisionally,
40:28
Speaker 1: you blindly bet it. I think this number should be three.
40:32
Speaker 1: I just I think there's too much hype on this
40:33
Speaker 1: Vikings team. Even professionals. They're like looking at this offense. Oh,
40:37
Speaker 1: their new o c their new head coach, he's he's
40:40
Speaker 1: the right hand man to McVeigh. This guy's new scheme
40:42
Speaker 1: is gonna really change his whole Vikings outlook. And it's
40:44
Speaker 1: still at the end of the day, it's still Kirk Cousins.
40:47
Speaker 1: So I'm I'm great with taking Rogers. I'll be down
40:50
Speaker 1: four or up four in the fourth quarter and somehow
40:53
Speaker 1: Kirk's gonna help me win this bet. So Chad's me
40:56
Speaker 1: sweating Kirk I'll be sweating Rogers and we'll see who's
41:00
Speaker 1: mount come Monday. Oh, I haven't bet it yet. Don't
41:07
Speaker 1: talk about our principles all the time. And we've got
41:10
Speaker 1: a couple of games here in the Ravens and in
41:13
Speaker 1: the Packers. It's so clearly we should be betting from
41:16
Speaker 1: a historical precedent point of view the home dog, and
41:21
Speaker 1: yet the matchup is making you say take the favorite.
41:25
Speaker 1: And since divisional home dogs five and oh a t
41:30
Speaker 1: s week one, going against that trend to which again
41:33
Speaker 1: it's scary, but you are. I gotta trust the numbers. Brother,
41:36
Speaker 1: I got it at three. It's it's one and a half. Oh,
41:39
Speaker 1: you're a professional. The Giants, Uh, this is the second
41:44
Speaker 1: biggest differential between money and bets. The bets on the
41:49
Speaker 1: Titans at minus five and a half of the bets
41:52
Speaker 1: on the Giants cent of the money A lot of
41:57
Speaker 1: professionals like in the Giants here. I can't do it.
42:01
Speaker 1: I people are gonna hate me because I hate on
42:03
Speaker 1: their teams. But I just I don't get the Giants hype.
42:06
Speaker 1: I don't get it either. I'm excited, right, excited to
42:10
Speaker 1: see what they do this year? Like this is it
42:12
Speaker 1: for Daniel Jones and like that as a fan, that's
42:14
Speaker 1: must be nice for Giants fans. I know this is
42:16
Speaker 1: it like either this kids actually finally be good with
42:19
Speaker 1: a good head coach, well was just not good and
42:21
Speaker 1: like that's it. But man, everyone trying to hype up
42:25
Speaker 1: their offensive lines better, everyone trying to take a better
42:28
Speaker 1: you're for Barkley. It's just like, I just don't know
42:30
Speaker 1: what's backing up these statements. Uh, Tennessee to me is
42:34
Speaker 1: still a very good team. Number probably should be six.
42:37
Speaker 1: I like that it's stayed a five and a half.
42:40
Speaker 1: I definitely think it's tsue and Chad just said a
42:42
Speaker 1: lot of money is coming on on the neverb really
42:43
Speaker 1: hasn't move much, which means the books are kind of
42:45
Speaker 1: the same thing. They're kind of shruggling their shoulders, being like,
42:48
Speaker 1: we're happy to be needing the Tennessee against the Giants here.
42:51
Speaker 1: This is a position we don't mind taking. So yeah,
42:54
Speaker 1: it's not when I've heavily bet, but I have I've
42:56
Speaker 1: had bet this Tennessee team. And again, if you're a
42:58
Speaker 1: big teaser guy, don't mind taking this one as a teaser,
43:02
Speaker 1: or you just do a money line parlay with them, uh,
43:04
Speaker 1: because I could see it being closer than we believe,
43:06
Speaker 1: just because again Tennessee loss a J. Brown, Like, we
43:09
Speaker 1: don't really know where getting from the wire receiver position.
43:11
Speaker 1: With them, we do know is we have a solid
43:13
Speaker 1: o line with Derrick Henry and a better quarterback and
43:16
Speaker 1: a better head coach. Right, So I do think it's
43:19
Speaker 1: interesting that the the pros again, people are gonna see
43:22
Speaker 1: this Week one, a lot of people are gonna betting
43:24
Speaker 1: what they're hoping to happen this season, which is totally
43:26
Speaker 1: relevant to Week one. You just simply should be playing
43:29
Speaker 1: this week alone. So yeah, trying to be not biased
43:31
Speaker 1: because I am excited for this Giants team because like again,
43:34
Speaker 1: they they to me have no expectations. It's kind of
43:36
Speaker 1: a fun year for them where it's they're gonna be
43:38
Speaker 1: really good or they're just gonna be absolutely crap again,
43:40
Speaker 1: but would not be putting money on them. Give me,
43:42
Speaker 1: give me six and a half. Seven, I'm there on
43:44
Speaker 1: the Giants, but a five and a half, I think
43:46
Speaker 1: you gotta take Tennessee. I'm gonna foreshadow something I think
43:50
Speaker 1: the Titans this week and we'll talk about this on Thursday.
43:56
Speaker 1: Interesting survivor choice. Do you think about this positions Other
44:02
Speaker 1: teams are in who you might want to pick and
44:04
Speaker 1: survivor they're in trap spots, and the Titans are a
44:07
Speaker 1: team you might want to get rid of early and
44:09
Speaker 1: they're not in a trap spot. Rights, that's a good one.
44:12
Speaker 1: But when we're gonna play the Ravens again, we have
44:14
Speaker 1: to look to the schedule. Well, we'll get to it
44:16
Speaker 1: on Thursday. Chiefs are six point favorites over the Cardinals
44:22
Speaker 1: in Arizona. Bets and money on the Chiefs. I know
44:27
Speaker 1: you love the Chiefs. I know I know how much
44:29
Speaker 1: you love the Chiefs. The backlash to the backlash against
44:33
Speaker 1: Patrick Mahomes is alive and well on the Favorites podcast.
44:37
Speaker 1: This kind of feels foxholy to me. What like taking Arizona,
44:42
Speaker 1: Oh God, Chad, I mean Chad's right and saying you
44:44
Speaker 1: bet the number here, But I had made this number six.
44:47
Speaker 1: I think you're still getting good value on the Chiefs.
44:49
Speaker 1: And it was funny when I put it in. Uh, Basically,
44:53
Speaker 1: Chad has me do this thing with other guys that
44:54
Speaker 1: work at Action. We put in like an NFL power
44:56
Speaker 1: rating thing they plug into the app. Everyone else had
44:59
Speaker 1: three half four and I just came in with six.
45:01
Speaker 1: I was just like, no, this number should be six.
45:04
Speaker 1: And it looked crazy because at the time I think
45:05
Speaker 1: the number was three, and then I went up to
45:07
Speaker 1: three and a half, and then all of a sudden
45:08
Speaker 1: this week it shot up to five and a half six.
45:10
Speaker 1: So I think it's good where it is at. Like,
45:13
Speaker 1: I like this Chief's team. I like the fact that
45:16
Speaker 1: they have upgraded. The only reason with Chad that you
45:19
Speaker 1: should maybe think about taking Arizona here is no one
45:23
Speaker 1: likes them. They're kind of being hated on by everybody.
45:25
Speaker 1: No one's taking them their division, no one. He's talking
45:28
Speaker 1: about them secretly. They're greatest strength is running the ball,
45:31
Speaker 1: like they ran the ball a lot last year. Connor,
45:36
Speaker 1: they're running back. I think he had sixteen touchdowns rushing.
45:39
Speaker 1: That's a huge weapon. And we know this Chief's team
45:42
Speaker 1: that was their Achilles Hill last year. You could pick
45:44
Speaker 1: up five eclips. So that's the fear, right if you're
45:47
Speaker 1: if you're taking a big road favorite that can't stop
45:50
Speaker 1: the run, that's a recipe for disaster. So and Chad,
45:54
Speaker 1: Chad was Chad saying, it's true, you're like you're always
45:57
Speaker 1: supposed to take Arizona here. See me, I just don't
45:59
Speaker 1: think there's value yet. If they hit seven, I I
46:03
Speaker 1: will take a position on Arizona, no doubt. But still
46:05
Speaker 1: at six, I still think you're getting good value on
46:07
Speaker 1: the Chief's team. Well, listen, we got two other games
46:09
Speaker 1: that are foxholes, and one of them there's no way
46:13
Speaker 1: we're taking. I'm putting the Cardinals down as a potential
46:18
Speaker 1: for our top five. No, there's no chance Cardinals. It's
46:22
Speaker 1: a good spot. It's good spot. Buccane years two and
46:24
Speaker 1: a half point favorites on the road at Dallas Sunday night.
46:28
Speaker 1: Tom Brady's back. The Cowboys are back. The Cowboys their
46:32
Speaker 1: home dogs. I mean the Cowboys are the side. Yeah,
46:37
Speaker 1: it sucks, like I hate betting a team like this
46:40
Speaker 1: that just had so much negativity heading into the season.
46:43
Speaker 1: But lucky for us, Tampas had the same exact thing.
46:45
Speaker 1: They just had a lot of drama in this camp.
46:47
Speaker 1: Dak I just saw crazy stat career completion percentage against
46:51
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay. For some reason, he plays incredibly well against them.
46:56
Speaker 1: Last year, the all hype team with Tampa the only
46:59
Speaker 1: beat them by two and week one, we're exactly where
47:02
Speaker 1: we were last year, right, except we're at home with
47:04
Speaker 1: this team getting two and a half. It's gross. We
47:07
Speaker 1: gotta do it. This is the foxhole. I mean, there's
47:10
Speaker 1: just no doubt about it. No one's gonna be betting
47:13
Speaker 1: this game Sunday night, taking Dallas going to the foxhole.
47:19
Speaker 1: Let's climb down into the foxhole like it's us and
47:24
Speaker 1: it's us in Cowboy fans, like, I mean literally, they
47:27
Speaker 1: just signed a four year old man to play left
47:28
Speaker 1: tackle for them in Jason Peters, a guy who was
47:31
Speaker 1: on his couch all summer. Another team gave him a
47:33
Speaker 1: call and Dallas did so. Dallas definitely is a nice spot.
47:38
Speaker 1: But you know, for Week one, weird things are happening.
47:41
Speaker 1: We're getting home dog that we can't really disagree that
47:45
Speaker 1: this feels gross, right, Chet Like this is probably the
47:47
Speaker 1: This to me feels like the most forced one going
47:49
Speaker 1: against Brady and week one. But they just have had
47:52
Speaker 1: so much turmoil and Tampa. It's like it's hard to
47:55
Speaker 1: back him until they get into a groove in this season.
47:58
Speaker 1: I've been eyeing this game for weeks. Every single time
48:01
Speaker 1: I look at the board and I see the two
48:04
Speaker 1: and a half, it feels like, of course, I got
48:07
Speaker 1: to take the Cowboys and I have not. It's one
48:09
Speaker 1: of the games I have not pulled the trigger on.
48:11
Speaker 1: I just I haven't been able to do it. If
48:14
Speaker 1: you're really that scared, that's a good tease game, then,
48:16
Speaker 1: like if you don't want to bet it straight Again,
48:18
Speaker 1: Stucky is our guy for teasers. I feel like you'll
48:20
Speaker 1: have this one in there, because again, eight and a
48:22
Speaker 1: half on a home dog. I I understand I'm not
48:25
Speaker 1: a huge teas guy, but I would definitely tease Dallas.
48:27
Speaker 1: That's a good number for a home team. Listen to
48:29
Speaker 1: Stucky and Chris Raybon on the Action Network podcast. It's brilliant.
48:34
Speaker 1: Their Thursday episode where they create their six pack of
48:38
Speaker 1: best bets is so good. You can also hear Stucky
48:41
Speaker 1: and Colin Wilson on The Big Bets on Campus pod
48:44
Speaker 1: previewing the college games. All right, Russell Wilson is visiting
48:49
Speaker 1: his old team, the Seattle Seahawks. Who's playing quarterback for
48:53
Speaker 1: the Seahawks? Is it really Gino Smith? Did I dream that? Yeah?
48:58
Speaker 1: Thank god? Is Geno Smith not Drew Lock. The most
49:02
Speaker 1: disgusting thing we can do here is take the Seahawks.
49:04
Speaker 1: It almost at six and a half right now. It
49:07
Speaker 1: almost feels negligent if we don't and it's probably of
49:11
Speaker 1: those sick things, or if I lose and that Cowboys bet,
49:14
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go probably even heavier on this game because
49:16
Speaker 1: I'll just be so mad where it's like, come on,
49:19
Speaker 1: like the one of these dogs gotta win big in
49:21
Speaker 1: prime time. Seahawks gross like this, this is one of
49:25
Speaker 1: the grosser bets. This is the Jets. Like, if you're
49:28
Speaker 1: bet two teams this week that take the biggest amount
49:30
Speaker 1: of balls and the grossest bet you can make, it's
49:32
Speaker 1: probably this is the Jets. It's just disgusting. The Seahawks
49:37
Speaker 1: on paper, bad defense, offense not terrible, Like they got
49:41
Speaker 1: the weapons that penny in the backfield, they got tire locket,
49:44
Speaker 1: It's like they got the weapons. Canino get it there.
49:46
Speaker 1: But to me, the biggest thing is it's it's Russ
49:49
Speaker 1: first start. It's gotta be so weird, Like again, the
49:52
Speaker 1: Matt Ryan thing's gonna be weird too, Matt Ryan fourteen
49:54
Speaker 1: years in the land, the first game for the Colts.
49:56
Speaker 1: It's gonna be weird, walking out, the guys in locker room,
49:58
Speaker 1: all of it, Like that's weird. It how how do
50:01
Speaker 1: we not feel like this is gonna strangest thing I
50:02
Speaker 1: have for Russell Wilson going back to where all those memories,
50:05
Speaker 1: all those amazing things happened. Brady, what was that? What
50:08
Speaker 1: do he went by two points against New England when
50:11
Speaker 1: he went back last year against Mac Jones, like we've
50:14
Speaker 1: just seen even the strongest mental guy in the world,
50:16
Speaker 1: Tom Brady, he broke and he talked about it affected
50:19
Speaker 1: him after the game. He said it was the weirdest
50:20
Speaker 1: thing ever be another sideline looking at the stands. That's
50:24
Speaker 1: kind of rare. And russ having people that loved him
50:26
Speaker 1: for ten years curse on him out talking ship to
50:28
Speaker 1: him going to be weird. So I love this number
50:31
Speaker 1: all the way down to four and a half. It's
50:33
Speaker 1: it's gross people, But primetime Island games, you're getting a
50:36
Speaker 1: dog and I guess all hype team in Denver, another
50:40
Speaker 1: team that's just been talked about all summer take it.
50:42
Speaker 1: This number has just been ballooned up on the simple
50:44
Speaker 1: fact they have to protect against teasers and they know
50:47
Speaker 1: the public is gonna come back heavy on this game, especially.
50:50
Speaker 1: I mean if the Bucks lose, this number could jump
50:53
Speaker 1: to seven again, which it was at and it came
50:55
Speaker 1: down when Gino's name. So I like it at six
50:57
Speaker 1: and a half. But if you don't want to wait,
50:58
Speaker 1: you wanna wait to live it. See see if you
50:59
Speaker 1: get seven, I get it, because I do think I
51:01
Speaker 1: could get back up there. I think it's fitting that
51:03
Speaker 1: we end a disgusting show convincing ourselves that Seattle plus
51:08
Speaker 1: six and a half is not only a great play,
51:11
Speaker 1: but it may be one of our top five picks
51:13
Speaker 1: when we narrow it down on Thursday. It's gonna be interesting.
51:17
Speaker 1: We got a couple of conversations going on in here
51:19
Speaker 1: when on Thursday and we talked about sharp calls, which
51:23
Speaker 1: is you will get over the next forty eight hours
51:25
Speaker 1: a lot of phone calls from professional betters who listen
51:28
Speaker 1: to the podcast. Not so much week one, but as
51:32
Speaker 1: the season goes along, it's gonna be a lot more.
51:34
Speaker 1: But like, yeah, the only guys are gonna calling me.
51:35
Speaker 1: Your guys are already talked ship to me about their picks.
51:39
Speaker 1: They will call and they will either confirm what we're
51:42
Speaker 1: saying or trash what we're saying. It's gonna be no confirmations.
51:45
Speaker 1: It's only gonna be negative. Week one, Well, we live
51:48
Speaker 1: for the negative. It hypes us up. Hit people in
51:52
Speaker 1: the fucking mouth. Run it up there, fucking throat. That's it.
51:59
Speaker 1: We got through. I was nervous about this. We got
52:02
Speaker 1: through the full slate. We had things to say about
52:05
Speaker 1: every game. Here we go, brother, This has been the
52:08
Speaker 1: favorites from the Volume Podcast Network. I'm Chad Moman, He's
52:12
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter for producer Extraordinaire Matt Mitchell. Download the podcast
52:17
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52:21
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52:24
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52:28
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Speaker 1: leave us five stars. Say whatever you want feedback as
52:39
Speaker 1: a gift until Thursday. I love you,