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The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 16 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by bet three
0:12
Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume podcast Network.
0:15
Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. I'm live
0:19
Speaker 1: from my Tommy John home studio, and I'm joined as
0:23
Speaker 1: always by my co host, my companion, Michael Padre my
0:26
Speaker 1: BFF professional Better signmon Hunter l O Simon.
0:31
Speaker 2: Chad, how are we doing well?
0:34
Speaker 1: It's going to be an interesting show because I know
0:37
Speaker 1: where you and I are leaning, and I know some
0:40
Speaker 1: stats from Evan Abrams, who continues to be asked to
0:45
Speaker 1: sign jerseys by our fans at our live events. People
0:50
Speaker 1: are going up to Evan asking him to sign their
0:54
Speaker 1: NFL Legit regulation jerseys and put their favorite st in
1:00
Speaker 1: sharpie on the jerseys. So Evan illuminating in his great
1:05
Speaker 1: article that he posts on Wednesdays on Action network dot
1:10
Speaker 1: com in the Action Network app download it illuminating the
1:14
Speaker 1: upside down year it has been for betters like us Simon,
1:17
Speaker 1: who historically have cashed in betting against the favorites, fading
1:22
Speaker 1: the public betting home underdogs, of which we have plenty
1:26
Speaker 1: to choose from. This week, some stats from Evan. Favorites
1:29
Speaker 1: have gone seventy one percent straight up this year most
1:33
Speaker 1: profitable season since two thousand and nine. It's the fourth
1:38
Speaker 1: least profitable season for underdogs in NFL history. Might explain
1:45
Speaker 1: some of our challenges. We like to fade the public.
1:49
Speaker 1: Teams getting over sixty percent of the spread bets have
1:53
Speaker 1: gone fifty seven percent against the spread this year. Again,
1:57
Speaker 1: we like to fade the public. Home underdogs are forty
2:01
Speaker 1: two percent against the spread, which would be the second
2:05
Speaker 1: least profitable season since nineteen ninety. What do we do, Simon,
2:10
Speaker 1: We bet home dogs and we fade the public. No
2:13
Speaker 1: wonder we're having one in four weeks and just having
2:18
Speaker 1: misery every single week, coming out on the edge on
2:21
Speaker 1: these five games. We're picking road favorites. Last week when
2:26
Speaker 1: seven and no straight up and are thirty four and
2:30
Speaker 1: eight eighty one percent since Week nine. So there are
2:35
Speaker 1: six home dogs this week, Simon, you and I are
2:39
Speaker 1: curious about all of them, more than curious with a
2:43
Speaker 1: couple of them. Today is our NFL Week sixteen Best
2:48
Speaker 1: Bets episodes. Simon and I will narrow down our five
2:50
Speaker 1: picks in the favorites one hundred thousand dollars Pro Football
2:54
Speaker 1: Pick Them Contest presented by Bet three sixty five, we'll
2:56
Speaker 1: get into the foxhole. We'll give out our Timy John
2:58
Speaker 1: big balls better than we We're going to discuss Simon's
3:01
Speaker 1: biggest bets are boosted moneyline underdog parlay. You can gearon
3:05
Speaker 1: fucking tea. It's going to be two home dogs and
3:09
Speaker 1: we'll talk about the underdog round robin and so much more.
3:14
Speaker 1: Bets are rolling in lines, removing decisions seem to be made.
3:17
Speaker 1: As our volume podcast, Boss Callen Coward likes to say,
3:19
Speaker 1: there's a sea of money out there. There's a sea
3:21
Speaker 1: of money out there. As a reminder, the Favorite Podcast
3:25
Speaker 1: presented by Bet three six five and now new Bet
3:29
Speaker 1: three sixty five, customers get one hundred and fifty dollars
3:31
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Speaker 1: using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars, place a bet
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3:41
Speaker 1: bonus bets. Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals,
3:45
Speaker 1: player props, futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary.
3:50
Speaker 1: At Bet three sixty five. Must be twenty one or
3:53
Speaker 1: older and present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,
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Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, or a ten and older
4:00
Speaker 1: in Kentucky gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or
4:04
Speaker 1: one hundred bets off in Iowa terms, conditioned restrictions apply.
4:08
Speaker 1: It's Thursday. Wise. Guys have been blowing up Simon's phone.
4:13
Speaker 1: He already teased on it before we came on air
4:17
Speaker 1: what they think about some of the decisions we're making.
4:22
Speaker 1: Lines have been moving since we've been talking, Simon. Let's
4:26
Speaker 1: do sharp calls.
4:31
Speaker 2: Hello, who's there?
4:32
Speaker 3: I'm talking Rain rain telephone range.
4:36
Speaker 1: Somebody's said, maybe what you do man?
4:40
Speaker 2: Yeah? Off the top.
4:41
Speaker 3: People want to know if you're alright, Chad. I had
4:43
Speaker 3: a couple of calls about Chad taking Buffalo minus fourteen.
4:47
Speaker 3: They're just wondering if you're all right nicking that your
4:49
Speaker 3: pick there with all these home dogs this week, so
4:52
Speaker 3: pretty easy week, honestly, Chad. I think every probably talked
4:55
Speaker 3: to you. The most part is on the home dogs.
4:56
Speaker 3: A couple guys I've talked.
4:57
Speaker 2: To you, like the Eagles. It is really about the
5:00
Speaker 2: number there.
5:01
Speaker 3: I know a couple of guys that took a position
5:03
Speaker 3: on the Eagles when it was two and a half,
5:05
Speaker 3: and then when I went back to three this week,
5:06
Speaker 3: they took another position on it, which to me makes sense.
5:09
Speaker 3: It makes me leave a little confidence because I thought
5:11
Speaker 3: it was just gonna be I showed a pros versus Joe's,
5:14
Speaker 3: but shaping up to be one that's not as heavily
5:18
Speaker 3: professional on the Washington side, where the other dogs, like
5:20
Speaker 3: these home dogs, won't need to talk about it. Basically,
5:23
Speaker 3: the pros love every home dog this week. The only
5:25
Speaker 3: one I think people are hesitant on is that Bear's
5:28
Speaker 3: number because it has moved down, right.
5:29
Speaker 2: I think if it was.
5:30
Speaker 3: Still seven or at seven and a half, that would
5:33
Speaker 3: just be in the same exact conversation we're having right now.
5:36
Speaker 2: Let's dive into the favorites though.
5:38
Speaker 3: With the pros, I bet I don't know if we're
5:40
Speaker 3: gonna talk about it today, but that Chiefs lines moved
5:43
Speaker 3: like crazy, So that was the line.
5:45
Speaker 1: That we're definitely gonna talk about it today.
5:47
Speaker 2: Okay, I'll save it.
5:47
Speaker 3: Then that one that jumped out to me where it's
5:50
Speaker 3: like the books have left themselves open so wide to
5:54
Speaker 3: a middle here, so it's very telling that they're moving
5:57
Speaker 3: it to where they've got they've moved it to now,
5:59
Speaker 3: so that's a game we Yeah, we'll definitely need a
6:02
Speaker 3: break down.
6:04
Speaker 2: A favorite that me and you kind of liked that.
6:06
Speaker 2: I've talked a.
6:07
Speaker 3: Couple of pros on the other side, the Colts. I
6:10
Speaker 3: mean again, it's not like we're madly in love with
6:11
Speaker 3: it. It was just a favorite we flooded out there. We
6:13
Speaker 3: kind of liked. Just about every probably talk to likes
6:15
Speaker 3: the other side of that one. And again we started
6:18
Speaker 3: out this week like in Miami, most pros I've talked
6:21
Speaker 3: to like.
6:21
Speaker 2: The forty nine or so.
6:23
Speaker 3: Yep, it's funny on the same side as us, but
6:25
Speaker 3: it feels like, for the most part, a lot of
6:27
Speaker 3: the home dogs be like this week, it seems like
6:29
Speaker 3: that's gonna be the professional side this week.
6:31
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm not surprised by that at all. Like the
6:33
Speaker 1: more I looked at the board and the more I
6:34
Speaker 1: dug into this, and by the time we get to
6:36
Speaker 1: Wednesday afternoon, uh, you know, opinions start to solidify a
6:41
Speaker 1: little bit. You start to see some of the practice
6:43
Speaker 1: reports and like, similar to what you the feedback you've gotten,
6:49
Speaker 1: I started to walk away from the Dolphins. I was
6:54
Speaker 1: not feeling confident about the Colts. We're going to talk
6:58
Speaker 1: about the Bills game. I'm curious to know they feel
7:01
Speaker 1: why they're against me.
7:03
Speaker 3: I guess they were just shocked that in a week
7:05
Speaker 3: of like you just said, six or seven home dogs
7:07
Speaker 3: that you went with, Yeah, one of the biggest favorites
7:10
Speaker 3: on the board.
7:11
Speaker 2: You know that's fair.
7:12
Speaker 1: That's also part of the challenge of doing the show
7:14
Speaker 1: on Tuesday, right, is like you can only do so
7:17
Speaker 1: much on Mondays when you're researching this stuff, and you
7:21
Speaker 1: start to get more intel on Tuesday and more intel
7:24
Speaker 1: on Wednesday.
7:24
Speaker 3: I told them, I think you just had PTSD. You're
7:26
Speaker 3: a man that you're just every week, like we talk it,
7:29
Speaker 3: we've been taking these dogs and we're just getting shit
7:31
Speaker 3: kicked out of us, and the only one cover for
7:33
Speaker 3: us are our favorite, Like betting favorites have just been
7:35
Speaker 3: good for us for these lat school weeks. So that
7:37
Speaker 3: was my excuse for you to these people. I was
7:39
Speaker 3: just like, list can's been through the fucking Ringer man,
7:42
Speaker 3: He's just he knows you should take Jets three and
7:45
Speaker 3: a half, but in his mind he's just like fuck them.
7:48
Speaker 3: I'm just going with the Bills and I won't be
7:49
Speaker 3: mad at myself if they don't cover.
7:51
Speaker 2: So that was my view of it.
7:52
Speaker 1: Well, look, you're not wrong, and we're going to get
7:55
Speaker 1: to the Jets three and a half because we did
7:56
Speaker 1: come back around on that. We're going to get to that.
7:58
Speaker 1: Soonest first, let's talk about Kansas City, which is now
8:02
Speaker 1: with three and a half. Yeah, and I'm putting this
8:06
Speaker 1: in here. I don't think we're going to play Houston
8:08
Speaker 1: at three and a half or Kansas City at three
8:10
Speaker 1: and a half in the contest. Mainly I want to reiterate,
8:14
Speaker 1: and we bet Kansas City on Sunday night Monday morning
8:17
Speaker 1: at plus two and a half. And then yesterday, because
8:19
Speaker 1: you are my bff and you're good to me, you
8:23
Speaker 1: sent me a text to let me know that the
8:25
Speaker 1: Texans had moved to three and a half at bet
8:28
Speaker 1: three sixty five. Because I told you in the shower
8:31
Speaker 1: on Tuesday morning, I was thinking this thing, which is
8:35
Speaker 1: now at two and a half, it's going to get
8:37
Speaker 1: to three and if it gets at three and a half,
8:39
Speaker 1: we're going to have to middle this. It was three
8:41
Speaker 1: and a half. I'm assuming you've bet the Texans at
8:44
Speaker 1: three and a half. I've bet the Texans at three
8:46
Speaker 1: and a half. We are very much hoping for the middle.
8:50
Speaker 3: Yeah, and the most shocking part is we did our
8:52
Speaker 3: show Tuesday and Mahomes practiced and there was a couple
8:57
Speaker 3: of books that moved them back up to plus two
9:00
Speaker 3: and a half the Chiefs, And I was like, what
9:02
Speaker 3: do they know that I'm missing? Maybe you look gingerly
9:04
Speaker 3: in practice, maybe it wasn't moving right, and they were like, oh,
9:07
Speaker 3: we'll get ahead of it. And then yeah, I went
9:09
Speaker 3: to bed and woke up to a frantic call in
9:12
Speaker 3: the middle of the night and it was like just
9:14
Speaker 3: basically that number was moving the other way and the
9:16
Speaker 3: Chiefs were back now to one, and then sure enough,
9:19
Speaker 3: you know, eighty or nine, am I feel like it
9:21
Speaker 3: was back up. On Wednesday it was back up to
9:23
Speaker 3: three for the Chiefs, and then by the time you know,
9:26
Speaker 3: we texted later in that day, it was up to
9:27
Speaker 3: three and a half of just about every book. So yeah, honestly,
9:31
Speaker 3: we talked about this. It's like, what's it above three?
9:34
Speaker 3: Especially with this Chiefs team. I want to be on
9:36
Speaker 3: the other side of it. So I was already gonna
9:39
Speaker 3: try to play the middle when I was at three happy,
9:41
Speaker 3: I was patient and weighted.
9:42
Speaker 2: Let it get to three and a half.
9:43
Speaker 3: And now it's I mean, for anyone that bet the
9:45
Speaker 3: two and a half on the Chiefs, you have to
9:47
Speaker 3: try to play the middle here. You can't just roll
9:49
Speaker 3: this value like this is such a Chiefs line where
9:52
Speaker 3: timetime a, we'veeen land on three. Very telling by the
9:56
Speaker 3: sports books because of how much early money they got
9:59
Speaker 3: on the Chiefs that they even put this at three
10:00
Speaker 3: and a half because they they knew if they put
10:03
Speaker 3: this at three and a half, they're just gonna get
10:04
Speaker 3: hammered by not just professionals but the public.
10:06
Speaker 2: Right. I think everyone's kind of been on.
10:08
Speaker 3: The the gig of this Chiefs team just doesn't blow
10:11
Speaker 3: the teams now, obviously we saw what happened last week,
10:15
Speaker 3: but yeah, it's it's just interesting that they've moved this
10:19
Speaker 3: to three and a half and now it's just sat
10:20
Speaker 3: there for coming up on twelve thirteen hours here. So
10:24
Speaker 3: the books are telling you what they need right now.
10:26
Speaker 3: They need Houston money clearly.
10:29
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think it's gonna get down to three. It's
10:31
Speaker 1: already juiced in that direction. I think if you want
10:33
Speaker 1: to get to three and a half and you're listening live,
10:36
Speaker 1: go get it because it's not gonna last long. I
10:38
Speaker 1: hope it's there when listeners are tuning in later today
10:42
Speaker 1: after the show has been posted.
10:44
Speaker 2: See I told you that.
10:45
Speaker 3: I talked to sportsbook guys and they were just like,
10:47
Speaker 3: this is on Tuesday again. They're like, every teaser, every
10:51
Speaker 3: single teaser on Saturday is Chiefs up to eight and
10:54
Speaker 3: a half and the Ravens down too point five, Like
10:58
Speaker 3: they just got slammed with that. So that to me
11:01
Speaker 3: is just they already know they're kind of screw because
11:03
Speaker 3: this is a standalone game on a Saturday, But the
11:05
Speaker 3: fact that they're just leaving this at three and a half, like,
11:08
Speaker 3: like you just said, it could go down to three
11:10
Speaker 3: by kick, but they're in such a bad position right now.
11:12
Speaker 2: Might you might be able to still get it come Saturday.
11:15
Speaker 1: I think it's not a bad spot for the Texans
11:19
Speaker 1: if you think about it. At three and a half.
11:21
Speaker 1: Their defense have been playing better, Their pass rush is
11:25
Speaker 1: one of the best in the NFL, if not the
11:27
Speaker 1: best in the NFL. Mahomes is hobbled, and we really
11:32
Speaker 1: don't know what their offensive line can do. Last week
11:35
Speaker 1: they were playing Joe Tooney at left tackle. Will he
11:39
Speaker 1: do it again? Will he perform?
11:40
Speaker 2: Well? He looked great, Honestly for a guy that never
11:43
Speaker 2: played it before. He look really good.
11:45
Speaker 1: Freaking baller, right, Yeah, And you also have to wonder,
11:48
Speaker 1: like the Texans. You know, rush game has been so
11:52
Speaker 1: inconsistent every week with Joe Mixon. He's either getting one
11:55
Speaker 1: hundred yards or he's less than fifty yards. Last week
11:57
Speaker 1: he was less than fifty yards, right, twenty three yards?
12:01
Speaker 1: Will they decide to just unlease CJ. Stroud, let them
12:04
Speaker 1: throw against a depleted secondary, like, we don't know? So
12:08
Speaker 1: it could be a good spot for the Texans. But
12:11
Speaker 1: I'm very happy to let my middle just sort of
12:16
Speaker 1: linger and stew and simmer. It's so rare you get
12:20
Speaker 1: these opportunities. Yeah, Yes, Pittsburgh get Baltimore. So this game
12:28
Speaker 1: was at six and a half. We liked it at
12:30
Speaker 1: six and a half, it moved down to six. Got
12:34
Speaker 1: word yesterday that George Pickens on Wednesday did not practice. TJ.
12:38
Speaker 1: Watt did practice. This line is now back at six
12:41
Speaker 1: and a half. I would still take the Steelers. I'd
12:47
Speaker 1: probably still be comfortable with them in the contest, mainly
12:50
Speaker 1: because of the historical nature of this series, and it's
12:55
Speaker 1: sort of a Tomlin spot. It's a fade Harbass spot
12:59
Speaker 1: as a relatively big favorite, as a dog of three
13:02
Speaker 1: or more versus the Ravens. Tomlin is six and oh
13:06
Speaker 1: thirteen and two and two against the spread overall versus Harbaugh.
13:13
Speaker 1: You know, stats galore the series overall the last twenty years.
13:17
Speaker 1: The underdog is twenty three, four and three since twenty fifteen, sixteen,
13:21
Speaker 1: two and one. Everything says it. And like, unlike the
13:24
Speaker 1: other trends where we, you know, sort of got caught
13:29
Speaker 1: last week with the Steelers and the Browns or the
13:32
Speaker 1: Steelers and the fading the Chiefs, this one doesn't worry
13:36
Speaker 1: me as much. I don't know about.
13:37
Speaker 3: You, no, and it's it's it's my favorite bet every
13:42
Speaker 3: year whenever the Ravens and Pittsburgh play, like we talked about,
13:45
Speaker 3: whoever is the dog? I put zero effort and research
13:48
Speaker 3: into the number. I simply log on, go to Evans page,
13:51
Speaker 3: look at the trends. It's like this is one of
13:53
Speaker 3: the few games where you can just simply play the
13:55
Speaker 3: trends here and it's it's all about who's the dog.
13:58
Speaker 3: The bigger the number, the better. It's like you talked about,
14:00
Speaker 3: it gets even better the higher the number gets when
14:02
Speaker 3: these two teams match up. So, yeah, Lamar having an
14:06
Speaker 3: MVP season, it feels like the only team she struggle
14:10
Speaker 3: against her Pittsburgh and the Eagles this season, right, and
14:14
Speaker 3: this is another bad matchup for him with this Pittsburgh
14:16
Speaker 3: team that just they just know how to plan and
14:18
Speaker 3: they know to make them un corporate, they how to
14:19
Speaker 3: make them flustered. In Yeah, Chad, we might eventually get
14:23
Speaker 3: burned by it, but we're up.
14:24
Speaker 2: I think we're like Evans.
14:26
Speaker 3: Five and oh betting against this exact spot, and like
14:28
Speaker 3: we always joke about that, are we overthinking?
14:30
Speaker 2: This is just too easy?
14:32
Speaker 3: And we always eventually put it in the contest because
14:34
Speaker 3: we eventually do get there. So it is another number
14:37
Speaker 3: where it's like, yes, we know Lamar's I can go
14:40
Speaker 3: zero to ten in his career against this Pittsburgh team,
14:43
Speaker 3: But if me and Chack can go eight and two
14:45
Speaker 3: betting this exact spot over the lifetime of this for
14:48
Speaker 3: the next couple of years, that's huge for us, Like
14:50
Speaker 3: that's the dream scenario. So yeah, we're sitting our five
14:53
Speaker 3: and oh betting this exact spot nothing's changed for me.
14:55
Speaker 3: It's all about playing the number had this way down
14:58
Speaker 3: like I have this close to the four and a half.
15:00
Speaker 3: That's the only fear. It's the same thing as the
15:01
Speaker 3: Eagles last week, where I might be overrating this Pittsburgh
15:04
Speaker 3: team too much and maybe i'ven't adjusted enough.
15:07
Speaker 2: On the pickings injury.
15:08
Speaker 3: But at six and a half, I feel like that
15:10
Speaker 3: insurance is already built in. Like we talked about last week,
15:12
Speaker 3: that that game would have been totally different if there
15:15
Speaker 3: wasn't a couple of little turnovers here and there and
15:17
Speaker 3: Tomlin played a little more aggressive. I can't see him
15:20
Speaker 3: being reluctant and hesitant back to back week with Tomlin
15:23
Speaker 3: like he knows he screwed.
15:25
Speaker 2: Up last week.
15:25
Speaker 3: So yeah, give me a Pittsburgh team on a short week,
15:29
Speaker 3: pissed off and against a Raves team that just absolutely
15:33
Speaker 3: blew out and dominated a Giants team that's feeling themselves.
15:35
Speaker 3: So yeah, we love the trends, we love the spots.
15:38
Speaker 3: Give me Pittsburgh plus six and a half.
15:40
Speaker 1: I love your confidence. I was afraid that you were
15:44
Speaker 1: going to come in and tell me you're a little
15:46
Speaker 1: bit anxious about playing the Steelers because of us getting
15:51
Speaker 1: sort of snake bit last week playing the Steelers trend
15:54
Speaker 1: and fading the Chiefs, you know, as more than three
15:57
Speaker 1: point favorite trend. So I'm so thrilled to hear because
16:00
Speaker 1: I still love the Steelers here.
16:01
Speaker 2: Yes, this is great. It's all about the number.
16:03
Speaker 1: I would like to know. We should check this. We've
16:06
Speaker 1: been doing this show.
16:08
Speaker 2: Is this our sixth season?
16:09
Speaker 1: Is this our sixth season doing it together? But is
16:12
Speaker 1: it our fifth year with the contest or is it
16:14
Speaker 1: our sixth year with a contest?
16:17
Speaker 2: Can the contest?
16:18
Speaker 1: We'll have to figure that out. I wonder how many
16:20
Speaker 1: times we put the Steelers as dogs against the Ravens
16:24
Speaker 1: in the contest, and if we've been six and oher
16:27
Speaker 1: with that play, if we're running, you know, because you
16:31
Speaker 1: know God will and Simon, God will, and we get
16:34
Speaker 1: four more years of the show and we can have
16:36
Speaker 1: a decade's worth of data. I'm playing the Steelers as
16:41
Speaker 1: the dogs in the contest against the Ravens. Guess what
16:46
Speaker 1: you mentioned The Jets took me a minute, but maybe
16:51
Speaker 1: on Tuesday I would have made this my exact decision.
16:54
Speaker 1: The good news is it's lingering out there and now
16:58
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17:05
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17:29
Speaker 1: us to bet the New York Jets as three three
17:33
Speaker 1: and a half point underdogs at home against the Los
17:36
Speaker 1: Angeles Rams. We like this allowed on Tuesday when it
17:40
Speaker 1: was three and a half, we both bet it there.
17:43
Speaker 1: It has moved to three. I'll tell you it looks
17:46
Speaker 1: like it's moving to two and a half. But I
17:51
Speaker 1: don't know about you, Simon. I started to feel much
17:53
Speaker 1: better about this over the past forty eight hours.
17:56
Speaker 3: Yeah, and mine's like the old school, the old school
17:59
Speaker 3: white reason for me liking this again, the numbers back
18:02
Speaker 3: it up. I mean, Rogers obviously has been playing much
18:04
Speaker 3: better these last several weeks. But the biggest thing I
18:05
Speaker 3: like about this was it felt like a trap spot
18:08
Speaker 3: right for the public coming on the Rams, and then
18:10
Speaker 3: you factor in the weather like it's gonna be what
18:13
Speaker 3: mid twenties in this game comes Sunday and this is
18:17
Speaker 3: we're talking about Stafford here, like people forget because he's
18:20
Speaker 3: been out in LA. We auto faded Stafford just about
18:23
Speaker 3: every time he left that giant that Lions building. Right
18:26
Speaker 3: anytime he went outdoors, we saw Stafford would always struggle. Again,
18:30
Speaker 3: He's a kid that played in college ball, played down
18:32
Speaker 3: in Georgia. He's just never been a cold weather quarterback.
18:35
Speaker 3: And I need to go through the trends with Evan
18:38
Speaker 3: here with him and outdoor games, but it feels like
18:41
Speaker 3: this is kind of a good spot to fade him
18:43
Speaker 3: and this Los Angeles offense, especially like we.
18:46
Speaker 2: Talked about, they're just the public darling right now.
18:48
Speaker 3: So honestly shock looking the app that there is even
18:52
Speaker 3: that amount of money coming in on the Jets, But
18:54
Speaker 3: I think it's what we talked about every week. These
18:56
Speaker 3: professionals are just gonna keep hitting the side, whether it
18:58
Speaker 3: was a good number or a bad number.
19:00
Speaker 2: They believe in this team. They're models believing this team.
19:02
Speaker 2: And yeah, three and a.
19:04
Speaker 3: Half contest wise, shot, I absolutely love it. Two and
19:07
Speaker 3: a half will truly take some big balls to put
19:09
Speaker 3: it in there, because obviously me and you have hammered
19:12
Speaker 3: this at three and a half would it be shocked
19:15
Speaker 3: if this game lands on three. If the Jets somehow
19:17
Speaker 3: find a way to lose this game by fool at
19:19
Speaker 3: the end, would not be shocked.
19:21
Speaker 2: But the number, everything about.
19:24
Speaker 3: This just feels like a Jets outright win, upset shocked
19:27
Speaker 3: the world type of game.
19:28
Speaker 1: Yeah. Look, we faded the Rams for two reasons here
19:32
Speaker 1: and we talked about this on Tuesday. Two very sexy,
19:37
Speaker 1: big time wins, and this team now finds itself in
19:40
Speaker 1: first place in the NFC West. Right, they are streaking,
19:45
Speaker 1: as they tend to do the last couple of years,
19:47
Speaker 1: like they find their footing in the second half of
19:49
Speaker 1: the year. It's why we generally hate betting against Matthew Stafford.
19:55
Speaker 1: But they have not been the same team on the
19:57
Speaker 1: road that they've been at home this year. And like
20:01
Speaker 1: you just said, the Jets have been okay the past
20:04
Speaker 1: couple of weeks. Like they lost a game they should
20:07
Speaker 1: have won and covered against the Dolphins, they covered a
20:14
Speaker 1: game they shouldn't have. In both cases they were undone.
20:18
Speaker 1: This is the scary part. They're very unqualified, ill equipped
20:24
Speaker 1: head coach who knows less about clock management than just
20:28
Speaker 1: about anybody watching red zone on a Sunday afternoon. It's
20:31
Speaker 1: actually astonishing how bad he is at it. Like these
20:35
Speaker 1: past two weeks, the spread and the jet success has
20:40
Speaker 1: been entirely determined by his horrible, inane, stupid clock management.
20:47
Speaker 1: So we get screwed in this game. This is why,
20:50
Speaker 1: and it's why actually I didn't make it a massive
20:52
Speaker 1: bet this week is because I worry a little bit
20:55
Speaker 1: about Jeff Olbrook just not understanding the basic constructive management.
21:01
Speaker 3: And then this amazing stature from Evan Stafford. Four and
21:04
Speaker 3: seven straight up outdoors thirty five degrees or less one
21:08
Speaker 3: in three under thirty degrees.
21:10
Speaker 2: So, I mean, I knew there was something back there.
21:12
Speaker 3: It was like we used to same kind of treat
21:15
Speaker 3: when we get the golf, but not extreme that. I
21:17
Speaker 3: just remember when every time Stafford went outdoors, he always
21:19
Speaker 3: struggled in the cold weather. And uh, that could be
21:22
Speaker 3: partially why the summer's moved so much check because people
21:24
Speaker 3: are just it's again it's the old old man take
21:27
Speaker 3: where it's like you got the weather and you have
21:29
Speaker 3: the public perception. They usually love to hammer these type
21:32
Speaker 3: of spots.
21:33
Speaker 2: So yeah, if if you're.
21:34
Speaker 3: Lucky enough to still find a three to three and
21:36
Speaker 3: a half out there, I would definitely grab it out
21:37
Speaker 3: before this does go down to two and a half.
21:39
Speaker 1: I do worry a little bit that Rogers has looked
21:42
Speaker 1: so good because he's old and he's been in Florida,
21:44
Speaker 1: and everybody knows that when you're old and you're in
21:47
Speaker 1: Florida during the winter, you're going to be more spry.
21:50
Speaker 1: So does he look better? Does he look the same?
21:53
Speaker 1: Does he look worse when he's playing at home in
21:54
Speaker 1: cold weather. Here's a good stat last twenty years, a
21:58
Speaker 1: team that has a winning percentercentage of fifty to sixty
22:01
Speaker 1: percent fifty to fifty nine percent. So you know, teams
22:04
Speaker 1: that like are good ish might be fighting for a
22:08
Speaker 1: playoff spot, but they're not so good that they can
22:10
Speaker 1: be dominant. And we're at the end of the season,
22:12
Speaker 1: the last three weeks of the season facing a team
22:15
Speaker 1: below five hundred allah. The Rams and the Jets in
22:18
Speaker 1: this current matchup thirty eight percent against the spread the
22:23
Speaker 1: past twenty years and since twenty twenty two just nine
22:26
Speaker 1: to eighteen and one. So I do like that we
22:31
Speaker 1: have the Jets in a good spot here. It's a
22:34
Speaker 1: home dog. Will our fidelity to the number in the
22:38
Speaker 1: spot be betrayed by the wackiness of this season. That
22:42
Speaker 1: is our question, Simon. We just don't know, but we're
22:46
Speaker 1: willing to dig in and play it. Dear listeners. It
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Speaker 1: dot com slash favorites. All right, you mentioned Washington three
23:46
Speaker 1: and a half, you know at the Eagle or hosting
23:49
Speaker 1: the Eagles right now. Another home dog alert for us
23:53
Speaker 1: I'm with the wise guys on this, like we played it,
23:56
Speaker 1: this was Simon says, I believe. But the more like
23:59
Speaker 1: I think about it, the more anxious it makes me,
24:03
Speaker 1: just because I love this Eagles defense so much. Like
24:07
Speaker 1: I haven't bought out of it. I'm on the commanders
24:10
Speaker 1: at three and a half, but it does it does
24:14
Speaker 1: make me a little anxious.
24:18
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean it's fair. The last time they played
24:21
Speaker 3: the Egles beat them up. They beat him like twenty
24:23
Speaker 3: seven eighteen or twenty six to eighteen. So I get
24:25
Speaker 3: your hesitation, and.
24:28
Speaker 2: My view of it is just how do that Egles
24:31
Speaker 2: not have.
24:31
Speaker 3: A letdown after that Pittsburgh game. I mean they're just
24:34
Speaker 3: feeling themselves so much. I mean, she is just christ
24:37
Speaker 3: yell and hurts press conference. You would think this dude
24:40
Speaker 3: is averaging thre hundred yards per game, passing in three touchdowns,
24:43
Speaker 3: like he came in their flection so hard for a
24:46
Speaker 3: game that was Yeah, it's very good, but it's like
24:48
Speaker 3: this is what we expect.
24:49
Speaker 2: Out of you, So yeah, not a good look. Budget
24:52
Speaker 2: It hurts that that was not good.
24:54
Speaker 1: Uh yeah, this it really wasn't and it was kind
24:57
Speaker 1: of it was to me, it was a little bit
25:00
Speaker 1: out of character for a guy who like generally is
25:03
Speaker 1: pretty quiet, like self confident obviously, but just hasn't been
25:09
Speaker 1: in the place where he likes to sort of go
25:12
Speaker 1: after the media, blame the media, us against the media,
25:15
Speaker 1: you know, sort of that that Aaron Rodgers esque approach.
25:23
Speaker 3: Yeah, and clearly it got to him though, where it's like, yeah,
25:27
Speaker 3: we talked about this though. I told you it's he
25:30
Speaker 3: gets more hate than most other quarterbacks, and it is
25:34
Speaker 3: because of the weapons he has around him, right. People
25:37
Speaker 3: just see the talent of the offensive line, the wide
25:39
Speaker 3: receivers and obviously the running back, and they're just like,
25:41
Speaker 3: this team should be so much better than the two seed.
25:44
Speaker 3: They haven't lost in you know, since September. It's just
25:47
Speaker 3: I think that's what's probably annoying the shit hapen where
25:49
Speaker 3: it's like, man, if you know sak one didn't have
25:53
Speaker 3: that bad drop against Atlanta, they they're.
25:55
Speaker 2: Probably the one seed right now.
25:56
Speaker 3: I mean, they are the one seed right now, So
25:59
Speaker 3: you know, I get where he's coming from.
26:00
Speaker 2: But I just thought it was a weird.
26:02
Speaker 3: Way to start that press conference where it was just
26:05
Speaker 3: just not like you just said, I the character for
26:07
Speaker 3: Jalen hurts. But yeah, Chad, this matchup for me, it
26:12
Speaker 3: really is just about this number and this this type
26:15
Speaker 3: of matchup these two teams play. Right, We've seen it
26:17
Speaker 3: this season that obviously Washington. Every game Washington plays is
26:21
Speaker 3: just a bizarre game. Either they're rolling like absolutely dominating
26:25
Speaker 3: teams or it's going to come down to the final seconds,
26:27
Speaker 3: last possession. And you know, as much credit as I
26:31
Speaker 3: want to give to their defense, because that's probably been
26:34
Speaker 3: the most shocking part about Washington this season is how
26:36
Speaker 3: good their defense is played. Where you know, me and
26:38
Speaker 3: you joked about they were getting rid of basically all
26:40
Speaker 3: their best d linemen and still have found a way
26:44
Speaker 3: to put it together. But you know, again, like your hesitation,
26:47
Speaker 3: I totally understand it because you know, they had a
26:49
Speaker 3: stretch there where they lost to Pittsburgh, they lost to
26:52
Speaker 3: the Eagles, they lost to Dallas. Now they have one
26:56
Speaker 3: too straight, right, They won against Tennessee, then had their
26:58
Speaker 3: bi week when they beat New Orleans. So we've seen
27:00
Speaker 3: it that they've beat up on these bad teams. But
27:04
Speaker 3: you know, I just view this game as then be
27:05
Speaker 3: able to play this one close.
27:06
Speaker 2: Jet.
27:07
Speaker 3: It's like a type of game that just because the
27:09
Speaker 3: divisional game here late in December, both fighting for playoff
27:13
Speaker 3: spots in the sense that you know, Eagles still fighting
27:15
Speaker 3: for the one seed, Washington still fighting to be a
27:17
Speaker 3: wildcard team. It just feels the game that's gonna be
27:20
Speaker 3: really close and other than come down to three. Now,
27:23
Speaker 3: I get where you're at your hesitation. I had a
27:25
Speaker 3: lesitation too, because I found out so many professionals wrong
27:27
Speaker 3: on the other side.
27:28
Speaker 2: So yeah, if there's other dogs.
27:30
Speaker 3: You rather put in there this week home dogs, I'd
27:32
Speaker 3: be fine with it. It was just really about me trying
27:35
Speaker 3: to get ahead of it the market, just because the
27:37
Speaker 3: number had moved so much. I really did think it
27:38
Speaker 3: was gonna be three come today's show, and clear I
27:41
Speaker 3: was wrong. Should have went with the Jets or the Chiefs,
27:44
Speaker 3: as my Simon says, because that was definitely getting ahead
27:46
Speaker 3: of the line movement in those games.
27:47
Speaker 1: Yeah, I didn't see you as being dug in on
27:50
Speaker 1: this as a contest play. To me, it was only
27:53
Speaker 1: about the Simon says, and getting the three and a
27:55
Speaker 1: half and on Tuesday like it was trending in that direction.
27:58
Speaker 1: It did get down to three, just came back up
28:00
Speaker 1: to three and a half, and I think The difference
28:02
Speaker 1: here about the letdown is we've said this all season.
28:09
Speaker 1: Physical travels right, and Jalen Hurts can be up and
28:13
Speaker 1: down and all those kinds of things. But like their
28:18
Speaker 1: defensive line is still going to be dominant and their
28:21
Speaker 1: defensive backfield is still continuing to get better. I don't
28:25
Speaker 1: even think they've reached their peak yet. They're just so
28:28
Speaker 1: freaking good.
28:29
Speaker 2: You were at the game of this when the Eagles
28:31
Speaker 2: played Commanders.
28:32
Speaker 1: I was, but my tickets through game time, which will
28:34
Speaker 1: get you.
28:35
Speaker 3: Another reason I love Washington is the Eagles. I mean
28:38
Speaker 3: people think they blow them out. They scored twenty in
28:40
Speaker 3: the fourth, like this was a really close game, and
28:43
Speaker 3: then it kind of got away from Washington the very end.
28:44
Speaker 3: That's another reason why I like Washington, where it's like
28:46
Speaker 3: it feels like they know and to match up with
28:48
Speaker 3: this Eagles team. But like the Eagles have done all season,
28:50
Speaker 3: they just wear you out with sake.
28:51
Speaker 1: They wear you out. They look at that ten minute
28:54
Speaker 1: drive against the Steelers was really so dominant you couldn't
28:59
Speaker 1: turn away. It was a constant car crash like it broke.
29:02
Speaker 1: One of the most unbreakable teams in football, that's the
29:06
Speaker 1: Steelers like you expect them to get the stop. The
29:10
Speaker 1: Commanders have not been very good in the fourth quarter
29:13
Speaker 1: this year. We saw it against the Saints just this
29:16
Speaker 1: past weekend. But you know from Evans article, three and
29:20
Speaker 1: eleven against the spread in the fourth quarter this year,
29:23
Speaker 1: that's tied for worst in the NFL. So I do worry.
29:27
Speaker 1: We're going to get to a place where it's late
29:30
Speaker 1: in the season, rookie quarterback, physical game. The Eagles are
29:34
Speaker 1: going to eagle you know what I mean?
29:36
Speaker 2: It's fair.
29:38
Speaker 1: Arizona at Carolina. We lean Carolina when it was four,
29:44
Speaker 1: Now it's four.
29:45
Speaker 2: And a half, it's get to five.
29:47
Speaker 1: I don't get it, like the Cars are one of
29:51
Speaker 1: those teams I just mentioned it with the Rams where
29:54
Speaker 1: they're good ish, they've sown promise, but they're not dominant.
30:00
Speaker 1: They're not the Eagles, they're not the Lions. They're not
30:02
Speaker 1: even that second Tiers sort of packers team. They are
30:06
Speaker 1: a good teams still figuring it out with an okay
30:08
Speaker 1: defense that is getting a little bit better, and an
30:11
Speaker 1: inconsistent quarterback. These are the teams you fade in December.
30:15
Speaker 1: They're playing losing teams like nine, eighteen and one against
30:20
Speaker 1: the spread. Since twenty twenty two in this spot, and
30:23
Speaker 1: Kyler like has all the Cliff Kingsbury in him when
30:28
Speaker 1: it comes to fading this guy as the season goes on,
30:33
Speaker 1: twenty six and fourteen against the spread September, October seventeen,
30:36
Speaker 1: twenty one and two in November or later when he
30:42
Speaker 1: is over five hundred, and that game is played in
30:45
Speaker 1: November or later, he's seven to fourteen against the spread.
30:49
Speaker 1: I'm wondering if this is our foxhole because we still
30:55
Speaker 1: like the Panthers, I think, and this line keeps moving
30:58
Speaker 1: against us. I don't know if it goes in the contest,
31:00
Speaker 1: but I don't know if there's another game where we
31:04
Speaker 1: so definitively have been on the other side, I.
31:06
Speaker 2: Could get in the content.
31:07
Speaker 3: I mean, I've been betting it pretty heavy this week,
31:09
Speaker 3: and it was really all about the number. On what
31:11
Speaker 3: you just said about Kyler, I just think that not
31:14
Speaker 3: that he's a tad overrated, but he's just been the
31:16
Speaker 3: type of guy that sucks people in after a good
31:18
Speaker 3: week and then kind of has a letdown game the
31:20
Speaker 3: following week, especially in this exact scenario where he's playing
31:22
Speaker 3: not a not a good team on the road as
31:24
Speaker 3: a big favorite, and I mean you joke about it,
31:27
Speaker 3: like when Kyler is a big dog on the road,
31:30
Speaker 3: we tend to back them. Like historically he's been really
31:32
Speaker 3: good as a dog on the road, but as a favorite,
31:34
Speaker 3: especially when it's above three, he tends to struggle. And
31:38
Speaker 3: you know this season, you know we've seen him have
31:41
Speaker 3: games like even that Minnesota game. They almost stole that game,
31:43
Speaker 3: Like he was on the road, could have stole that game,
31:46
Speaker 3: no doubt. They all played Minnesota, but that was another game.
31:49
Speaker 3: I felt like it was more about Minnesota than it
31:51
Speaker 3: was about Arizona.
31:52
Speaker 2: And it feels the same spot here.
31:54
Speaker 3: It's like, all right, they just had this incredible, big
31:57
Speaker 3: win against a very bad team. Now they're playing another
32:00
Speaker 3: bad team on the road. The public is coming in heavy,
32:04
Speaker 3: bending them up, even if some professionals are betting this
32:06
Speaker 3: one up. And it's at the point now where especially
32:09
Speaker 3: that's about four and a half, it's like, how do
32:12
Speaker 3: we not get this one? It just feels like way
32:13
Speaker 3: too much disrespect this Carolina team. But my only fear
32:16
Speaker 3: is I'm blind to my love for this Panthers team,
32:19
Speaker 3: Like it's still a cheme that I could be overrating
32:23
Speaker 3: as much I want to say that this game is
32:24
Speaker 3: gonna be another cold weather game.
32:26
Speaker 2: I don't know how bright Young.
32:27
Speaker 3: Is going to do in the cold weather either, like
32:29
Speaker 3: this is not a guy who's played in the Big
32:31
Speaker 3: tenor like Dad, he's an Alabama quarterback that basically his
32:34
Speaker 3: whole career has pretty much been the warmth. And I
32:37
Speaker 3: hate bring it up, but it's a real thing. These
32:40
Speaker 3: quarterbacks with small hands in this cold weather that is tough,
32:44
Speaker 3: Like your grip on the ball is different when it
32:45
Speaker 3: is cold like this. So a lot to think about here.
32:49
Speaker 3: I got a game I'm not going to force us into,
32:51
Speaker 3: but just don't be shocked if for this is one
32:53
Speaker 3: of our five comes Sunday, because it's like I could
32:55
Speaker 3: easily see myself, especially hitting the books tonight and tomorrow
32:58
Speaker 3: getting talked into it because I just know every problem
33:00
Speaker 3: go to run into for the most part, is gonna
33:02
Speaker 3: be on this Panthers side. It just feels like this
33:04
Speaker 3: is way too inflicative, but number way too much respect
33:06
Speaker 3: this Panthers team, I mean this Cardinals team, and too
33:09
Speaker 3: much disrespect to a Carolina team that was due for
33:12
Speaker 3: a bad game.
33:13
Speaker 2: Right. We talked about that last week. It was gonna
33:15
Speaker 2: go the other.
33:15
Speaker 3: Way eventually, right, They had been playing so well for
33:18
Speaker 3: so many weeks in a row for such a young,
33:19
Speaker 3: inexperienced team. At the end of the day, though, they
33:23
Speaker 3: still were competitive in that game against Dallas, but it
33:26
Speaker 3: really felt too Bryce Young, right, like, when that game
33:30
Speaker 3: was close, kept turning the bull over, kept getting short fields.
33:33
Speaker 3: Same thing here, like, if we have a bad Bryce
33:35
Speaker 3: Young game, me and Chad will know right away that
33:37
Speaker 3: we're dead because this Panthers defense is just atrocious. So, yeah,
33:41
Speaker 3: this really is a bet on. Do we think Bryce
33:43
Speaker 3: Young's gonna show up for us on this spot?
33:44
Speaker 1: All right? So this is gonna be our foxhole because
33:47
Speaker 1: I don't disagree with you, but we're definitely on the
33:49
Speaker 1: opposite side of the wise guys here.
33:51
Speaker 3: You know me, regardless of what's going on, I'm a
33:53
Speaker 3: foxhole guy.
33:54
Speaker 2: I commit to a team, I commit to a city.
33:56
Speaker 2: I'm a foxhole guy.
33:57
Speaker 1: The one thing I will say to counter what you're
34:00
Speaker 1: saying about Bryce Young, the Cardinals don't have any pass
34:02
Speaker 1: rushers as good as Michaeh Parsons. And you know, we're
34:06
Speaker 1: going to talk about Dallas in a little bit, but
34:09
Speaker 1: he has been dominant and that was just the biggest
34:12
Speaker 1: factor in that game. Every time Red Zone flipped to it,
34:15
Speaker 1: Micah Parsons was sacking Bryce Young or forcing a fumble
34:20
Speaker 1: of Bryce Young. So that was a big deal. I
34:23
Speaker 1: knew you were leaning Panthers because the last few weeks
34:30
Speaker 1: you have loved the Jags, and we have both loved
34:33
Speaker 1: the Panthers. And I slacked you this morning and said,
34:37
Speaker 1: what do we think of these games for our money
34:39
Speaker 1: line underdog round robin? And you wanted me to take
34:43
Speaker 1: out the Jags and put in the Panthers. And I'm like, huh,
34:47
Speaker 1: that's interesting. So I knew. I knew there was going
34:49
Speaker 1: to be a lean here today because if you're taking
34:52
Speaker 1: out the Jags for the Panthers, you're falling madly, deeply
34:59
Speaker 1: in love.
35:00
Speaker 3: It's also about the value too, Like Panthers are plus
35:02
Speaker 3: one ninety plus one eighty.
35:04
Speaker 2: I think the Jags are like minus one h two.
35:06
Speaker 1: So you love the Panthers. I do do we want
35:11
Speaker 1: to spend any time on Tennessee, Indie. I don't think
35:13
Speaker 1: we're going to put them in the contest. I just
35:14
Speaker 1: thought it was interesting. You know, Mason Rudolph is now
35:17
Speaker 1: officially the quarterback we didn't know that on Tuesday. And
35:21
Speaker 1: I don't want to lay money on Anthony Richardson as
35:26
Speaker 1: a favorite, and I don't really have faith. I don't
35:30
Speaker 1: think Mason Rudolph is even worth the point that the
35:33
Speaker 1: line moved. He's not that good either, So I'm not
35:37
Speaker 1: feeling strongly about this game.
35:39
Speaker 2: That's fair.
35:41
Speaker 3: It fills the game that we're going to kick ourselves
35:43
Speaker 3: if the Cults are up fourteen head end of the fourth,
35:46
Speaker 3: and it's like, man, how have we missed all these
35:49
Speaker 3: weeks of just fading this Tennessee team because they have
35:51
Speaker 3: just been a ferocious.
35:52
Speaker 1: Well look, that's also the question. So Tennessee this year
35:56
Speaker 1: is two and twelve against the spread. Yeah, like one
35:59
Speaker 1: of the worst team against the spread in NFL history,
36:03
Speaker 1: the worst mark since through fourteen games since the twenty
36:07
Speaker 1: sixteen Browns. But Anthony Richardson is on pace to have
36:14
Speaker 1: such a bad year of completing passes that his only
36:17
Speaker 1: comps in terms of lowest completion percentage for the past
36:22
Speaker 1: quarter century Tim Tebow and Achille Smith.
36:27
Speaker 2: Yeah.
36:30
Speaker 1: I'm old enough to have been a professional in the
36:35
Speaker 1: year nineteen ninety nine two thousand, so I remember the
36:40
Speaker 1: Achille Smith year. I remember Tim Tebow very specifically when
36:46
Speaker 1: I was running ESPN, the magazine we put him on
36:48
Speaker 1: the cover. Caused a lot of consternation, so we made
36:53
Speaker 1: him look like he was praying. People thought it was
36:55
Speaker 1: a political statement.
36:57
Speaker 2: I missed.
36:58
Speaker 1: Yeah, but you were like times you were like ten
37:02
Speaker 1: years old.
37:03
Speaker 2: Not even how ung go do you think Tibo played?
37:06
Speaker 1: I was no, but for a Key Smith twenty five
37:09
Speaker 1: years ago. This is like how bad Anthony Richardson has been.
37:14
Speaker 1: He has taken some severe steps back since the benching,
37:17
Speaker 1: and we thought he was getting better. So just a
37:19
Speaker 1: whole lot of we have so many ugly home underdogs
37:23
Speaker 1: we can ruin our weekend with. Do we really want
37:26
Speaker 1: to ruin it with Anthony and Richardson?
37:28
Speaker 2: No, it's fair. I just I'm honestly.
37:30
Speaker 3: I told you I was more shocked about the love
37:32
Speaker 3: from the professionals putting heavy money on his Tennessee side,
37:35
Speaker 3: Like I'm not talking a little money, Like I know
37:36
Speaker 3: guys who are putting decent money into the spot. And
37:40
Speaker 3: it's what I think you just talked about. Though maybe
37:42
Speaker 3: it's just the doubt of Anthony Richardson and the lift
37:45
Speaker 3: they think Mason Rudolph somehow was going to bring to
37:47
Speaker 3: this Tennessee team because I do think one of their
37:50
Speaker 3: covers the season was by Mason Rudolph when he did
37:53
Speaker 3: step in.
37:53
Speaker 1: So oh, look, he's a better quarterback than Will Levis
37:56
Speaker 1: and he made ready for the Steelers last year. But
37:59
Speaker 1: he also had the Steelers defense, and if you remember
38:01
Speaker 1: last year, they were winning games because of turnovers by TJ.
38:04
Speaker 1: Watt that he was forcing. Not because Mason Rudolph was
38:08
Speaker 1: any kind of hero.
38:09
Speaker 3: No, he'll forever be only known just for getting hitting
38:12
Speaker 3: the head by Miles Garrett with his helmet.
38:14
Speaker 1: That's right. Also, simpler times Detroit minus six and a
38:18
Speaker 1: half at Chicago. So we've been talking about cold weather.
38:21
Speaker 1: We've been talking about quarterbacks in Chicago. In Chicago, it's
38:24
Speaker 1: going to be low thirties. The warmest it'll be is
38:26
Speaker 1: around kickoff at noon on Sunday in Chicago about thirty one.
38:31
Speaker 1: It's never going to be above freezing. This is not
38:33
Speaker 1: a Jared Goff spot. So I understand why the wise
38:37
Speaker 1: guys have come in on the Bears at seven and
38:38
Speaker 1: a half and seven. However, I don't think it's going
38:42
Speaker 1: to matter for Jared Goff. We're not going to need
38:46
Speaker 1: him to do much. For the record, He's eighteen and
38:50
Speaker 1: eight against the spread off a loss. He's seven and
38:53
Speaker 1: two in the division off of a loss against the spread.
38:58
Speaker 1: This Bears rush defense is so bad. We saw it
39:01
Speaker 1: again last week against the Vikings. Even without David Montgomery,
39:05
Speaker 1: Jamia Gibbs may get two hundred yards. I'm not even exaggerating.
39:09
Speaker 1: Like I watched so many of these Bears games. They
39:10
Speaker 1: cannot stop anybody on the run in the running game, like,
39:15
Speaker 1: and the Bears are so ill prepared. Since eber Flus
39:19
Speaker 1: was fired, They've given up thirty plus points in both
39:23
Speaker 1: of their games. In the first half of the past
39:26
Speaker 1: three games, they've gained a total of one hundred and
39:31
Speaker 1: sixty three yards. That's it. Like, I know people are
39:38
Speaker 1: betting the number. I hate the Bears here, hate them.
39:43
Speaker 1: I'd much rather bet the Lions.
39:45
Speaker 2: I know.
39:46
Speaker 3: It sucks so because I wanted to find a way
39:48
Speaker 3: to take this Bearer's team, especially you know, the slander
39:53
Speaker 3: for Caleb Williams this week, it's just an.
39:55
Speaker 2: All time high.
39:56
Speaker 3: I mean, I have seen that video of him on
39:58
Speaker 3: that bench, you know, rolling around in agony like a
40:01
Speaker 3: toddler about twenty times and it's like, God, damn, people,
40:06
Speaker 3: let the kid grow. He's just a kid, Like he's
40:09
Speaker 3: just going through it. It's someone that you know, not
40:11
Speaker 3: that he's a silver screw up his ass his whole life,
40:13
Speaker 3: but he's been a winner his whole life. And you know,
40:16
Speaker 3: last year, yeah, it was hard to lose in the
40:19
Speaker 3: Pac twelve. But it's like, I think he's quickly realizing
40:22
Speaker 3: like this is a whole different world and it doesn't end.
40:24
Speaker 3: Like in his mind, he's like, man, I should be
40:26
Speaker 3: getting ready for the offseason. No, you still got three
40:28
Speaker 3: more weeks of just playing against the toughest division of football.
40:31
Speaker 2: So it's brutal for Caleb.
40:34
Speaker 3: And you know, like we talked about, the coaching has
40:36
Speaker 3: just been so disappointed for the Bears everything offensively, defensively
40:41
Speaker 3: since the.
40:41
Speaker 2: Fire, and they've just been terrible. And you're right, I'm
40:44
Speaker 2: probably overthinking it.
40:45
Speaker 3: I should just take the value here. I just can't
40:47
Speaker 3: believe the books are giving us six and a half
40:49
Speaker 3: another game. That's like, this is in every single teaser.
40:53
Speaker 2: Even me, who knows.
40:54
Speaker 3: It's a sucker bet, has put the lines in every
40:57
Speaker 3: single teaser.
40:58
Speaker 1: It's too easy, that's so funny.
41:00
Speaker 3: Gonna lose, Like, there's in what world do they lose
41:02
Speaker 3: this game? So of course somehow Chicago Bears are going
41:05
Speaker 3: to find a way to upset this game.
41:06
Speaker 2: That's just how usually. But this year has been wonky.
41:09
Speaker 2: It's been great for the public.
41:10
Speaker 3: So yeah, if you're someone like me, a sucker betting
41:12
Speaker 3: this Detroit team and a teaser, hopefully that that trend continues.
41:15
Speaker 3: So I'm with you, chat It's like if the Bears
41:18
Speaker 3: seven and a half, maybe, mean you would have it
41:20
Speaker 3: a serious conversation here, it's not.
41:21
Speaker 2: It's six and a half. I'll take the train that
41:23
Speaker 2: number and I'll throw them in a teaser.
41:26
Speaker 1: I don't know if this gets contest play. I mean,
41:28
Speaker 1: we're gonna have a favorite in the contest.
41:30
Speaker 2: We got to find a favorite so it could it
41:32
Speaker 2: could find its way in.
41:33
Speaker 1: It's well, the favorite is going to be Detroit or Buffalo.
41:37
Speaker 3: All right, right, I forgot our Buffalo love. It just
41:41
Speaker 3: cracks me up. Minus fourteen rock me away.
41:45
Speaker 1: Like we'll get to it in a minute, but walk
41:48
Speaker 1: me away from it, you know what I mean.
41:49
Speaker 2: I can't, I really can't. I mean that's that's the
41:53
Speaker 2: scary part.
41:54
Speaker 3: Like when it was getting up to fourteen and a
41:55
Speaker 3: half this Buffalo game, I was like, Okay, at least
41:58
Speaker 3: a professional money's coming on the same side of us.
42:00
Speaker 3: Now it is back down to fourteen, which is like
42:02
Speaker 3: not going to scare me off. But I do think
42:04
Speaker 3: it's interesting that guys are taking position on this New
42:07
Speaker 3: England team where like, again my model thinks is a
42:09
Speaker 3: good spot.
42:11
Speaker 2: Do the Bills overlooked him and have a letdown game?
42:14
Speaker 2: I don't know. It feels like they're coming home.
42:16
Speaker 3: And Josh Allen's playing for MVP and like this is
42:17
Speaker 3: the type of game he just beats the shit out
42:20
Speaker 3: of this bad New England team. The only hesitation here
42:22
Speaker 3: is do we get back door because the Bills have
42:25
Speaker 3: so many injuries to that defense and they're really playing,
42:28
Speaker 3: you know, with guys off the streets at this point,
42:30
Speaker 3: Like I know, they only have three or four guys
42:32
Speaker 3: they've sent the ir but they just have guys banged
42:35
Speaker 3: up that might miss this game. That could be a
42:36
Speaker 3: big deal for them. So that's the only hesitation for you.
42:38
Speaker 1: Well, hold on, let me set it up so Gifford
42:40
Speaker 1: can throw up his graphics and we're going to go
42:42
Speaker 1: a little bit out of order here because we've transitioned
42:44
Speaker 1: into Buffalo. I want to get to Seattle and Minnesota.
42:48
Speaker 1: We'll do that after this one. But New England Buffalo
42:51
Speaker 1: was my exec decision. I feel like if it wasn't
42:56
Speaker 1: the Jets, we would want to double up and make
42:58
Speaker 1: this big balls too. I agree with you. The Bill
43:02
Speaker 1: secondary is banged up, and we know Drake May likes
43:06
Speaker 1: to make things interesting in the second half. And I
43:10
Speaker 1: think we're both Drake may fans, like we've seen a
43:12
Speaker 1: lot of moxy out of the guy. He makes good throws,
43:14
Speaker 1: he's not afraid to throw into coverage, he throws with accuracy,
43:18
Speaker 1: he runs well like he's got nothing on that team.
43:23
Speaker 1: He has zero help and he has no help from
43:26
Speaker 1: the coaches either. And like this week Gerrod Mayo throwing
43:32
Speaker 1: Alex van Pelt under the bus about his play calling. Look,
43:38
Speaker 1: maybe I'm overthinking that part of it, but I do
43:42
Speaker 1: wonder is this, all of a sudden, a radically different
43:47
Speaker 1: game from a play calling point of view because of
43:51
Speaker 1: the sort of overt throwing under the bus by Gerald
43:58
Speaker 1: Mayo of Alex Bent van Pelt. That's to me, that's
44:01
Speaker 1: one part of it. I'd like your reaction to that,
44:04
Speaker 1: if I'm overthinking that part.
44:06
Speaker 2: Yeah again, I don't know.
44:08
Speaker 3: I don't think there's a move to be made with
44:10
Speaker 3: them at this point. That's that's the thing where it's like,
44:14
Speaker 3: you know, as much praise as we're giving to Drake May,
44:20
Speaker 3: I'm gonna go through it right here. He is throwing
44:23
Speaker 3: an interception every game since November three.
44:27
Speaker 1: Yeah. Yeah, So he's still a rookie quarterback playing against
44:30
Speaker 1: a terrible offensive line with no discernible players, no discernible
44:35
Speaker 1: talent on the edges, at receiver, at running back, Like
44:40
Speaker 1: he's getting no help here.
44:42
Speaker 3: No, And it's he's getting no help. But they're kind
44:45
Speaker 3: of letting him just go through all of that right now.
44:48
Speaker 3: Right They're not like pulling back the rains. They're still
44:50
Speaker 3: letting them throw the ball downfield in basically, every time
44:55
Speaker 3: they play a good team, they.
44:56
Speaker 2: Just get absolutely rolled. This this new England team.
44:59
Speaker 3: So like that again, And there's another reason why I'm
45:01
Speaker 3: okay with you bet this number, because you've just seen
45:03
Speaker 3: this season that you know, when they play against some
45:06
Speaker 3: bad teams, they can stay in it, they can keep
45:08
Speaker 3: the games close, but once they face a good, complete team, they.
45:11
Speaker 2: Seem to get rolled. And we know that we have major.
45:13
Speaker 3: Questions about the defense, but you have to think Sean
45:16
Speaker 3: McDermott going against a rookie QB, he's gonna be able
45:18
Speaker 3: to throw some crazy exotic looks at him.
45:20
Speaker 2: That's going to kind of have his head on a squivel.
45:22
Speaker 2: So again, Chad, I was.
45:23
Speaker 3: Trying to find a reason to get us off of
45:25
Speaker 3: this one, just because, like, it's rare that guys call
45:27
Speaker 3: up and talk about your bets. To me, it was
45:29
Speaker 3: just funny how many guys called up are just like
45:31
Speaker 3: your buddy, Chad all Right giving out a minus fourteen
45:34
Speaker 3: favorite is his favorite bet.
45:36
Speaker 2: I was like, I think he's just going through it.
45:37
Speaker 1: We've done this before, we did this with alliance we have.
45:42
Speaker 3: But this is again, this is a different scenario that
45:44
Speaker 3: was like peak lines Juggernaut.
45:48
Speaker 2: This is not peak Bills, Like this is the best
45:50
Speaker 2: team that's a little banged up.
45:51
Speaker 1: Yeah, but how is this not peak performance for the Bills.
45:55
Speaker 1: Look at what they did they you know, against You.
45:58
Speaker 3: Keep saying like, then, like do their defense is dish
46:01
Speaker 3: dog shit, it's all Josh Allen Captain America.
46:06
Speaker 1: So that that's the final factor for me, is that
46:13
Speaker 1: this is Josh Allen win the MVP game.
46:15
Speaker 2: That's the reason I'm like all in on this. It's
46:17
Speaker 2: just he's going for it.
46:19
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's a week where he can do what Lamar
46:21
Speaker 1: did last week. It's a week where the Ravens could
46:24
Speaker 1: have a hard time against the Steelers. It's separation week,
46:28
Speaker 1: It's week sixteen. Lock this shit down, win him the MVP,
46:33
Speaker 1: because now all of a sudden there is talk, Wait
46:35
Speaker 1: a second, should Lamar Jackson win the MVP? Look at
46:38
Speaker 1: how good he is, look at how efficient he is? Right,
46:40
Speaker 1: So this is the week we're betting Josh Allen to
46:45
Speaker 1: win the MVP. This is how we're betting Josh Allen.
46:48
Speaker 1: The odds in Josh Allen winning MVP, there's no value anymore.
46:53
Speaker 1: We think there might be some value in Josh Allen
46:55
Speaker 1: to win the MVP against the New England Patriots.
46:58
Speaker 3: Yeah, because Josh, again, that's keep put on video game numbers,
47:01
Speaker 3: because they really do have a joke schedule here. Then
47:03
Speaker 3: I think they faced the Patriots twice in the Jets
47:05
Speaker 3: once the season.
47:06
Speaker 2: Here.
47:07
Speaker 3: On the flip side, Lamar has a tough Pittsburgh game,
47:10
Speaker 3: then he has Houston. So it's like Lamar could flip
47:13
Speaker 3: this to his favorite, but I just don't think josh
47:15
Speaker 3: An allows it. Like this guy is just playing at
47:17
Speaker 3: the highest level we've ever seen.
47:19
Speaker 1: Oh my god, I can't believe we're gonna put this
47:21
Speaker 1: in the contest, but I think we are. I really do.
47:25
Speaker 1: Minnesota Seattle. This game's at three. It was at three
47:27
Speaker 1: and a half. I liked it a lot at three
47:29
Speaker 1: and a half. I betted at three and a half.
47:31
Speaker 1: It's basically three everywhere. In fact, I think it'll go
47:33
Speaker 1: down to two and a half. The old line is
47:36
Speaker 1: banged up for Seattle. Gino is hobbled. We hope that
47:40
Speaker 1: he's gonna play. They say he will, but if he's
47:43
Speaker 1: knocked out, we got Sam Howell. Gino against a spread
47:46
Speaker 1: at home is a loser bet. Gino against good defense
47:50
Speaker 1: is a bad bet. I just liked it at three
47:52
Speaker 1: and a half because I thought Minnesota was inflated. But
47:55
Speaker 1: if we saw this at three and a half in
47:57
Speaker 1: the contest, how would you feel.
48:00
Speaker 3: I could probably get there, just because, like we've talked
48:03
Speaker 3: about this, this Minnesota team is great, they've been and
48:05
Speaker 3: how well they're playing.
48:07
Speaker 2: This is a letdown spot.
48:09
Speaker 3: They're on the road in Seattle, then they're going to
48:10
Speaker 3: face Green Bay in the Detroit the next two weeks.
48:13
Speaker 2: So it's like the.
48:14
Speaker 3: Human element is, how are they not looking ahead? They
48:16
Speaker 3: know what's ahead of them right, Like they're in total
48:19
Speaker 3: control of the one seed, even though they want to
48:22
Speaker 3: say they're not going to overlook the Seattle team. You
48:23
Speaker 3: just gave a bunch of reasons why they might righte
48:25
Speaker 3: Like it's a banged up last leg team in Seattle.
48:29
Speaker 3: And to me, the reason I love it is like
48:31
Speaker 3: it feels like we're buying really low on the Seattle
48:33
Speaker 3: team now after last week. Must people that bet them
48:37
Speaker 3: are going to be really upset about that performance they
48:39
Speaker 3: put out against Green Bay.
48:40
Speaker 2: And I've talked about the stat of nauseum.
48:43
Speaker 3: I mean, it's mainly a lot of money this season,
48:45
Speaker 3: but I basically have just been blindly betting these NFC
48:48
Speaker 3: North teams and when they go outside the division because
48:50
Speaker 3: they've just been beating up outside their division this season.
48:53
Speaker 3: So this is all about the number, Chad, Like you
48:55
Speaker 3: just said, this number might move too much to the
48:57
Speaker 3: point of like are we all in Minnesota now?
49:00
Speaker 2: This two and a half in contest?
49:01
Speaker 3: Like that's the issue I had with this one where
49:03
Speaker 3: three and a half totally supports you. I think that
49:06
Speaker 3: was a good read by you on the Seattle team.
49:08
Speaker 3: But we're getting to bang up o line and a
49:11
Speaker 3: banged up Gino Smith against a team that loves to
49:13
Speaker 3: rush the passer, like that's what the Vikings love to do.
49:16
Speaker 3: So again, there's other ugly dogs we like this week more.
49:20
Speaker 3: This is a very pros verse Joe's spot though. The
49:23
Speaker 3: pros they're hitting the Seattle team hard, the public is
49:26
Speaker 3: thanking them. They are coming even heavier on the opposite
49:28
Speaker 3: side on this Vikings team. So yeah, really really fun,
49:31
Speaker 3: interesting game here.
49:33
Speaker 1: Maybe the wise guys when they call you, they should
49:35
Speaker 1: be saying Chad really nailed it with his analysis of
49:40
Speaker 1: Seattle instead of worrying about my mental state choosing the Bills,
49:44
Speaker 1: because clearly I'm finding the right side, you know. Tampa
49:49
Speaker 1: Bay at Dallas. Dallas is four. We both liked it
49:52
Speaker 1: for it's trending towards three and a half. Money is
49:55
Speaker 1: coming in on our side. Look, it has not been
49:59
Speaker 1: six successful move for us this year to fade the
50:02
Speaker 1: better team when we think it has reached a peak
50:05
Speaker 1: in the market. Ala Minnesota, A LA the Bucks to me,
50:16
Speaker 1: I just think this Dallas defense is not getting enough
50:19
Speaker 1: credit for how much better it has been since Micah
50:21
Speaker 1: Parsons came back. Alluded to this a little bit, with
50:24
Speaker 1: the Panthers seven and a half sacks since he came back.
50:30
Speaker 1: They are three and one in the last four games.
50:33
Speaker 1: The only loss is that fluky Bengals game, which if
50:38
Speaker 1: not for a mental breakdown by one of their players,
50:43
Speaker 1: they probably win that game. So I still like Dallas here.
50:50
Speaker 2: Yeah and there.
50:51
Speaker 3: Dallas is another team that they seem to play to
50:53
Speaker 3: level their competition since that, and they've played bad teams
50:57
Speaker 3: they usually play up to and they've done pretty well well.
51:00
Speaker 3: And when they've played legit contenders, really good teams, they've
51:03
Speaker 3: been rolled and blown out.
51:04
Speaker 2: This season.
51:05
Speaker 3: Now, we think Tampa is right in between there, like
51:07
Speaker 3: they're a team that any given Sunday they could upset
51:10
Speaker 3: any team in the NFC. They shouldn't have this season, and
51:12
Speaker 3: they beat the Eagles in Detroit this season, which is
51:14
Speaker 3: just crazy to think about. But we've seen it time
51:18
Speaker 3: and time again with this this Tampa team. They just
51:20
Speaker 3: have letdown games like it's it's no you know, it's
51:24
Speaker 3: not something we're making up in our minds, Like we've
51:26
Speaker 3: seen it now where they've had these big wins, these
51:28
Speaker 3: big road wins, and they come and they face teams
51:30
Speaker 3: and they just have huge letdowns. And you know, they've
51:33
Speaker 3: been really hot since they're bye week, they're four and
51:36
Speaker 3: oh right, they've just been beating up on teams. And
51:39
Speaker 3: you know, surprisingly, their only close game in that stretch
51:42
Speaker 3: was Carolina. That side we took Carolina should have won.
51:45
Speaker 3: They fumbled away though, right, So that was another spot
51:49
Speaker 3: of this team being a little lucky. So they beat
51:52
Speaker 3: up on a bad Vegas team, which the line was
51:54
Speaker 3: a lot closer than people realize. Like it sounds like
51:56
Speaker 3: an easy one now, but like people again were hesitant
51:58
Speaker 3: about this team. Same with against the Chargers, right, a
52:01
Speaker 3: lot of professionals I knew were coming in on the
52:03
Speaker 3: other side, like they really liked the charge on that spot.
52:05
Speaker 3: They went forty to seventeen. How do they not have
52:08
Speaker 3: a letdown here against an overlook Dallas team, right, going
52:12
Speaker 3: on the road here, you know, we expect this to
52:15
Speaker 3: be a close game. Like you just said, Dallas has
52:17
Speaker 3: just been better than what I feel like people are
52:19
Speaker 3: giving them credit for in the public perception right now,
52:22
Speaker 3: Like that game we joked about, but that was a
52:24
Speaker 3: real thing with that Cincinnati game, Like they should have
52:26
Speaker 3: either won that game or at least that minimum covered
52:29
Speaker 3: that that number.
52:30
Speaker 2: Yeah, I believe it was five or five and a half.
52:33
Speaker 3: Sam goes for here and the books are smart moving
52:35
Speaker 3: this down because that was a bad number they hung
52:38
Speaker 3: when it was four and a half. Four, That felt
52:40
Speaker 3: like that was way too high. This should be closer
52:41
Speaker 3: to three. Still, like the value of three and a half.
52:44
Speaker 3: It's just another game that like if you wanted to
52:46
Speaker 3: put in the contest, I know we're leaning into something
52:49
Speaker 3: we regretted this whole season, just betting these home dogs.
52:52
Speaker 3: But how does this line not have a ton of
52:54
Speaker 3: value on it, Like it's just way too inflated for
52:57
Speaker 3: a bucksting that we've seen that you can get pressure
52:59
Speaker 3: on Baker.
53:00
Speaker 2: They don't have a great.
53:01
Speaker 1: Old line and he'll make mistakes.
53:03
Speaker 3: Yeah, and he'll make mistakes, right, And like then you
53:06
Speaker 3: talked last episode was a bland You talked about that, Yeah, right,
53:09
Speaker 3: Like that's a big, big upgrade to that Dallas secondary.
53:12
Speaker 3: So it's just a lot of the points and tracks
53:14
Speaker 3: to us taking Dallas here. To me, it was all
53:17
Speaker 3: about the number. If this was three, okay, I could
53:20
Speaker 3: finally talk ourselves out of it. The fact that you're
53:21
Speaker 3: still be able to get three and a half four
53:23
Speaker 3: on this Cowboys team, it's just way too much value
53:25
Speaker 3: to pass on at that number.
53:27
Speaker 1: Yeah, I feel like we're looking at pitt the Jet, Pittsburgh,
53:30
Speaker 1: the Jets, Dallas, Buffalo, and then we're gonna have to
53:37
Speaker 1: make a call, you know, is it Washington, is it Carolina?
53:44
Speaker 2: Well, I'm surprised you didn't bring up one game.
53:46
Speaker 1: What's that?
53:46
Speaker 3: The Giants Atlanta? So so we're way ahead of the movement,
53:50
Speaker 3: which is like the best feeling in the world. Getting
53:53
Speaker 3: a plus ten against a rookie. I know, obviously he's
53:57
Speaker 3: not on the road, but like, dude, Pennix is left handed.
54:00
Speaker 3: They're flipping to a left handed quarterback middle of the
54:03
Speaker 3: week in this game, I know the Giants are trying
54:07
Speaker 3: to tank and give up the stet. We already joked
54:08
Speaker 3: about how they were gonna somehow steal this game. Now
54:11
Speaker 3: it's even more tempting, like, sure, this kid TeX's come
54:13
Speaker 3: in and just light the world on fire and completely
54:15
Speaker 3: roll this Giants team. But how do you not throw
54:19
Speaker 3: a little bit? I mean again, we don't have to
54:21
Speaker 3: put this in contest because the number has moved. But
54:23
Speaker 3: like this one just jumped out to me of like, wow,
54:26
Speaker 3: the books move this a point and a half when
54:28
Speaker 3: Kirk got taken out, which was pretty interesting. Fact they
54:31
Speaker 3: moved that that that much.
54:32
Speaker 1: It's heading back in the other direction. It got down
54:35
Speaker 1: to eight and a half. I think it's back up
54:37
Speaker 1: to nine. I'm looking in the ad. I'm looking online
54:40
Speaker 1: right now. No, I'm seeing eight and a half. I'm
54:44
Speaker 1: I see a couple of nines out there. Actually, I
54:47
Speaker 1: think Bed three six five, Yeah, Bet three six five
54:50
Speaker 1: is at nine right now.
54:52
Speaker 3: So yeah, just the game that jumped out to me.
54:54
Speaker 3: It was like, it's it's crazy. This is this kid's
54:58
Speaker 3: first start, this late in the season, and basically it
55:01
Speaker 3: must win. Like this is like this kid's first starts
55:04
Speaker 3: basically a playoff game. Like it's just crazy they're throwing
55:07
Speaker 3: him right to the fire like this. But like I said,
55:10
Speaker 3: weeks ago, when they should have made the move, it
55:13
Speaker 3: didn't make sense why they're keep going Kirk out there.
55:15
Speaker 3: And I kept saying, maybe we're not seeing what they're
55:17
Speaker 3: seeing in practice, which is Penix is simply not ready.
55:20
Speaker 2: I have no idea.
55:21
Speaker 3: I mean, this organization is just such a train wreck
55:24
Speaker 3: and it's another one of those that's like it's being
55:27
Speaker 3: run from the owner. Right, this doesn't feel like this
55:29
Speaker 3: is being run by the GM or the head coach.
55:31
Speaker 3: Just feels like an owner move. The owner came down
55:33
Speaker 3: after that embarrassing game against the Raiders and was like
55:37
Speaker 3: put the kid in, Like I'm done watching Kirk. So
55:40
Speaker 3: I just the vibes everything about it with Atlanta, I
55:43
Speaker 3: just want to fade, fade, fade.
55:45
Speaker 1: Well, the statement they put out was so weird what
55:48
Speaker 1: they said. It was like, this is a football decision
55:53
Speaker 1: and it wasn't Raheem Morris either.
55:55
Speaker 2: It was sort of like the order to be a
55:57
Speaker 2: soccer decision. I hate when fucking people say that it's it.
55:59
Speaker 1: Was like it was so it was so sort of
56:02
Speaker 1: weird and like, you know, real politic kind of thing.
56:08
Speaker 1: So your your instincts might be right on that. All right,
56:12
Speaker 1: Well I put on the list. I don't know, I
56:14
Speaker 1: feel like we're going to have what we'll have a
56:16
Speaker 1: good spirited debate about it. There is no debate though,
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59:00
Speaker 1: Our money line underdog round robin Dallas Cowboys, no surprise,
59:04
Speaker 1: New York Jets, no surprise, Seattle, San Francisco, the Carolina Panthers.
59:10
Speaker 3: So San Francisco is a favorite. Now we have to
59:13
Speaker 3: take them out.
59:14
Speaker 2: Can I get you there for the episode with Washington?
59:17
Speaker 1: Sure I could do. I had Washington on my list.
59:19
Speaker 2: I think they're a live dog here, so that would
59:22
Speaker 2: be a fun one.
59:23
Speaker 1: Yeah, do it. It's in Dallas, New York Jets, Seattle, Seahawks,
59:28
Speaker 1: Washington Commanders, Carolina Panthers. That is our money line Underdog
59:33
Speaker 1: round Robin. Give me your biggest bets right now?
59:36
Speaker 3: Oh Man, Definitely Jets three and a half. Definitely Washington
59:40
Speaker 3: three and a half. Obviously, people know the Chiefs. I
59:43
Speaker 3: was hammering that when it was plus money. Now like,
59:46
Speaker 3: obviously I'm gonna pull back, probably.
59:47
Speaker 2: Dory to hit the middle. We'll see how that Chiefs
59:50
Speaker 2: games go.
59:51
Speaker 3: I mean, if it goes as we expected to, If
59:53
Speaker 3: it lands and I do Middle, that Pittsburgh might have
59:56
Speaker 3: been one of my bigger bets as well.
59:57
Speaker 2: Like that's a type of type of situation.
59:59
Speaker 3: If I'm in the book, I know people who are like, oh,
1:00:02
Speaker 3: professionals don't do this. I'm telling you, professionals do this
1:00:04
Speaker 3: all the time. We just take that ticket right to
1:00:06
Speaker 3: the window and just throw it onto the next game.
1:00:08
Speaker 3: It's just you're playing with chips. It's not real money
1:00:10
Speaker 3: in my mind. So that's definitely a spot where it's like,
1:00:13
Speaker 3: if I hit that middle, I'm gonna be tempted a
1:00:16
Speaker 3: load up on this It's Pittsburgh number because it.
1:00:17
Speaker 2: Is so big.
1:00:19
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's it's a tough one. So yeah, for me,
1:00:22
Speaker 3: it's a dog heavy week.
1:00:23
Speaker 2: Chat.
1:00:23
Speaker 3: Like usually, I've been trying to force in a favorite,
1:00:25
Speaker 3: and I really don't have a favorite.
1:00:27
Speaker 2: I really love this week, I'll be honest.
1:00:29
Speaker 1: Other than Buffalo. Before we get out of here, let's
1:00:32
Speaker 1: bring in our director of research, Evan Abrams. We talk
1:00:35
Speaker 1: about them constantly on the show. He's gonna have the
1:00:37
Speaker 1: final awards. He's going to make us feel even better
1:00:39
Speaker 1: about betting all these home dogs, and we keep losing
1:00:41
Speaker 1: on the last word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking.
1:00:47
Speaker 5: I'm gonna try here, but we're gonna start with the
1:00:49
Speaker 5: easy one, right, So Raven Steelers. We've talked a ton
1:00:52
Speaker 5: about the series stats, and yeah, they all favor the dog,
1:00:55
Speaker 5: but I think Lamar versus Tomlin is worth some time
1:00:58
Speaker 5: here as well. So Lamar is one and four straight,
1:01:01
Speaker 5: up and zero to five against the spread versus Tomlin.
1:01:04
Speaker 5: But look inside the numbers. So Lamar's passer rating of
1:01:06
Speaker 5: sixty six points seven versus Pittsburgh his lowest versus any
1:01:10
Speaker 5: opponent by almost ten full points. All right, so he
1:01:13
Speaker 5: has five passing touchdowns and eight picks versus Pittsburgh. He
1:01:16
Speaker 5: doesn't have a negative touchdown at interception ratio against any
1:01:19
Speaker 5: other NFL team in four or five starts. Lamar's under
1:01:23
Speaker 5: seven yards per attempt. And even looking at the Ravens
1:01:26
Speaker 5: this season, Ravens have five losses this year, four of
1:01:30
Speaker 5: them versus top seven pass rushes according to PFF, and
1:01:33
Speaker 5: Pittsburgh's first. So it's just a bad matchup. Now, this
1:01:37
Speaker 5: is where I was gonna actually use Chad the stat
1:01:39
Speaker 5: that you used of mine on the bad teams versus
1:01:43
Speaker 5: good teams. But it's a great stat. Go back into
1:01:45
Speaker 5: the pod, listen to it. I'm gonna talk a little
1:01:47
Speaker 5: bit about.
1:01:47
Speaker 2: The Jets pick that you guys like.
1:01:49
Speaker 5: So the Jets offense has been better now, score twenty
1:01:53
Speaker 5: one points or more in four straight games. But to me,
1:01:55
Speaker 5: this is about different numbers. If you like the Jets,
1:01:58
Speaker 5: So to me, it's a defense that's been bad obviously
1:02:01
Speaker 5: since Sala left thirty first in EPA per play thirtieth
1:02:04
Speaker 5: and success rate. But I think Rogers and the Cold
1:02:08
Speaker 5: it's a good angle there, So I got two more
1:02:09
Speaker 5: for you. Todd Bowles Sunday Night Football against the Cowboys.
1:02:14
Speaker 5: Bowles has coached seventeen games as a road favorite. When
1:02:17
Speaker 5: the home team scores fourteen points or more, he's five
1:02:20
Speaker 5: and zero against the spread.
1:02:21
Speaker 2: When the home team.
1:02:22
Speaker 5: Scores less more than fourteen points, he's three eight and
1:02:25
Speaker 5: one against the spread, losing six of those games outright.
1:02:28
Speaker 5: The Cowboys team total in that game is twenty two
1:02:31
Speaker 5: and a half, so obviously they're expecting some points, which
1:02:34
Speaker 5: seems like a little bit of a big favorite for him.
1:02:36
Speaker 5: And I'll leave you with this one. And I added
1:02:38
Speaker 5: it because you guys had so much back and forth
1:02:40
Speaker 5: on Bill's Patriots. So if Bills do get up early,
1:02:44
Speaker 5: say they lead seven to nothing. Since it started twenty
1:02:46
Speaker 5: twenty two, the Patriots are three and twenty seven straight
1:02:50
Speaker 5: up and four to twenty five and one against the
1:02:53
Speaker 5: spread when trailing by seven points or more at any
1:02:55
Speaker 5: point in the game, worst marks in the NFL. Even
1:02:58
Speaker 5: this year, they're zero to eight straight up one in
1:03:01
Speaker 5: seven against the spread, losing six of those eight games
1:03:04
Speaker 5: by double digits. So the bet to me is just
1:03:07
Speaker 5: start fast, get Drake in a hole, and Josh will
1:03:09
Speaker 5: take care of the rest.
1:03:11
Speaker 1: Amen, brother, That's how we see it too, Evan, we
1:03:17
Speaker 1: love Buffalo. We are all Matt Mitchell's this weekend. If
1:03:21
Speaker 1: the bill's covered by fourteen, I'm not going to eat
1:03:25
Speaker 1: like wings with you know, surgical gloves, because I'm not
1:03:29
Speaker 1: a crazy person like Matt Mitchell. But maybe i'd have
1:03:33
Speaker 1: a spoonful of ice cream.
1:03:35
Speaker 2: Wait real quick, Yeah, we gotta do scooch for lot.
1:03:38
Speaker 1: When all hope is lost, all this left is relief.
1:03:43
Speaker 2: Let's play Scooch Rolette.
1:03:47
Speaker 3: I'll go with Pittsburgh plus six and a half. Hearing
1:03:49
Speaker 3: those Evans stats, how can I not?
1:03:51
Speaker 1: All?
1:03:51
Speaker 5: Right?
1:03:51
Speaker 1: Well, guess what I'm taking? The New York Jets? What
1:03:53
Speaker 1: number can I get them at? Three and a half? Please,
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