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The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Week 6 · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

0:08
Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
0:13
Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
0:16
Speaker 1: I am Chad Millman of the Action Network. I am
0:19
Speaker 1: live from my Tommy John home studio, and I'm joined
0:24
Speaker 1: as always by my co host, my companion, my compadre,
0:28
Speaker 1: my BFF professional better Simon Hunter. Hello, Simon, good morning chat.
0:34
Speaker 2: How are we doing?
0:36
Speaker 1: It's perfect. It's like kind of chilly in the Northeast.
0:40
Speaker 1: I get the layer. I turned on the heat in
0:44
Speaker 1: my office today. I'm looking at these lines and there
0:48
Speaker 1: is an abundance, an abundance of opportunity. Today is our
0:53
Speaker 1: NFL Week six Best Bets episode, where Simon and I
0:58
Speaker 1: narrow down our five picks and the favorites one hundred
1:01
Speaker 1: thousand dollars Pro Football pick'em contest presented by BET three
1:04
Speaker 1: sixty five. Sign up now Favorites dot Actionnetwork dot com.
1:08
Speaker 1: We will get into the foxhole. We'll give out our
1:11
Speaker 1: Tommy John Big Balls bet of the week. We're gonna
1:15
Speaker 1: discuss Simon's biggest bets, our boosted money line, Underdog Parlay,
1:20
Speaker 1: the Underdog Round Robin, so much more bets are rolling
1:24
Speaker 1: in lines, removing decisions need to be made. As our
1:27
Speaker 1: volume podcast Boss Colin Cowhard likes to say there's a
1:30
Speaker 1: sea of money out there as a reminder. The Favorites
1:33
Speaker 1: podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five and now
1:37
Speaker 1: new Bet three sixty five. Customers get two hundred dollars
1:40
Speaker 1: in bonus bets when you bet five dollars, sign up
1:43
Speaker 1: using promo code Favorites, deposit ten dollars. Place a bet
1:47
Speaker 1: for five dollars to get two hundred dollars in bonus bets.
1:50
Speaker 1: Those bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props, features,
1:53
Speaker 1: and more. Whatever the moment. It's never ordinary. At Bet
1:57
Speaker 1: three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older in
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Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia,
2:06
Speaker 1: or eighteen and older are in Kentucky. Gambling problem called
2:10
Speaker 1: one eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off
2:13
Speaker 1: in Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply all right as always
2:18
Speaker 1: on Thursday during the season, we like to hear how
2:22
Speaker 1: the wise guys are responding to our Tuesday conversation. That's
2:26
Speaker 1: how influential we are the lines move based on our conversations,
2:31
Speaker 1: and pros feel compelled to weigh in on our opinions. Simon,
2:36
Speaker 1: let's do sharp calls.
2:41
Speaker 2: Hello, who's there? I'm talking Rain rain telephone range.
2:46
Speaker 1: Somebody said, maybe what you do?
2:50
Speaker 2: All right? Chat? Well, off the top, we're against the
2:52
Speaker 2: pros and a lot of our picks. What could go wrong?
2:55
Speaker 2: They like the Ravens, and I mean, we could dive
2:57
Speaker 2: into that game more. It might be win. They might
3:01
Speaker 2: bullow me out of our Washington love.
3:02
Speaker 1: But I'm hoping they do.
3:04
Speaker 2: Okay, So yeah, it's the Joe public play. We talked
3:08
Speaker 2: about it, but I don't know. I just think the
3:10
Speaker 2: books they've been caught up to those Washington teams the
3:13
Speaker 2: professionals think they have and that this number should be
3:15
Speaker 2: seven and a half. And this Washington team is truly
3:19
Speaker 2: at the peak of their value right now. So again,
3:22
Speaker 2: you just said we're gonna dive into that one, So
3:24
Speaker 2: I'm looking forward to that. We talked about the Chargers,
3:27
Speaker 2: that Broncos game. The Pros they love the Broncos. It's
3:30
Speaker 2: not as split as you think it would be. It's
3:32
Speaker 2: not Pros versus Joe's. It's actually the public and the
3:36
Speaker 2: pros on Denver and a couple of professionals are out
3:39
Speaker 2: there taking this Chargers team. So that feels like it's
3:41
Speaker 2: going to be a couple of pros and the books
3:44
Speaker 2: against mainly the public. Right with that Denver number. Another
3:48
Speaker 2: game we talked about that we love. We knew this
3:51
Speaker 2: was going to be this way. We love the lines.
3:53
Speaker 2: The pros absolutely love this Dallas team, and it reminded
3:57
Speaker 2: me a lot of what we loved about the Rams
3:58
Speaker 2: last week. Right, the Rams got the three and a half,
4:00
Speaker 2: just like this Dallas number did. The professionals came in.
4:03
Speaker 2: I'm obviously heavy with the money, have bet this back
4:06
Speaker 2: down to three at most books. Well, I'll see how
4:09
Speaker 2: you feel about it, chat, I haven't waivered. I still
4:11
Speaker 2: like this matchup for Detroit. I think that what they're
4:14
Speaker 2: betting on is a lot of historical trends and the
4:17
Speaker 2: reason they're back in this Cowboys team they think. I
4:21
Speaker 2: guess that the lines will be sluggish come up a bye,
4:23
Speaker 2: but I'm looking forward for us bricking that one down.
4:26
Speaker 2: You know, the Giants one I talked about that. I
4:28
Speaker 2: love that game. The professionals love that. There there classic
4:32
Speaker 2: spot of you know grab the three and a half
4:34
Speaker 2: now if you want. But I already talked about it.
4:36
Speaker 2: I could see this number going down if Neighbors gets cleared.
4:39
Speaker 2: Hasn't got cleared yet, even though a couple of books
4:41
Speaker 2: are already showing threes. I'm hoping, hoping Neighbors gets cleared today,
4:45
Speaker 2: and that's when I look like a genius for getting
4:48
Speaker 2: this number early. But right now, if you didn't get
4:50
Speaker 2: the three and a half on Tuesday, you could still
4:51
Speaker 2: get it right now. Neighbors has not been cleared, so
4:53
Speaker 2: that number has not moved in the last one A game.
4:56
Speaker 2: Me and you both love the Pros, love the Jets.
4:59
Speaker 2: This is a nice spot the bet the Jets. It's
5:00
Speaker 2: a good value on the number. So I'm sure that's
5:03
Speaker 2: a game we're gonna break down as well. So at
5:05
Speaker 2: the start of it, I was a little nervous because
5:07
Speaker 2: they were on the other side of a lot of
5:08
Speaker 2: our picks. But we came back around there at the end.
5:11
Speaker 2: So we'll see how this week goes for us.
5:13
Speaker 1: Yeah, it doesn't feel like they are actually And so
5:14
Speaker 1: there's two things we have a preponderance of this week
5:18
Speaker 1: that are all sort of thematic home underdogs. A ton
5:24
Speaker 1: of home underdogs, Evan, I don't know if you know
5:28
Speaker 1: if this is accurate. I heard Stucky say this on
5:31
Speaker 1: the podcast with Chris raibon the Action Network podcast on
5:34
Speaker 1: Thursday Mornings said it might be the most home underdogs
5:38
Speaker 1: in one week in NFL history. I'm not sure if
5:42
Speaker 1: he got that from you, Evan.
5:45
Speaker 2: Right about in his article, but he did know. It's
5:48
Speaker 2: smooth because there's only nine home dogs now because there
5:51
Speaker 2: was ten, but the Tennessee flipped so favorite, right.
5:55
Speaker 1: And I want to talk about that game. So there
5:57
Speaker 1: was ten, now there's nine. We talk about the public
6:01
Speaker 1: a lot games in which the betting tickets are lopsided
6:07
Speaker 1: for one team. That is a key indicator that the
6:10
Speaker 1: public is on that side. A reminder that this season,
6:15
Speaker 1: the betting public so when fifty one percent or more
6:18
Speaker 1: of the tickets are on one side or the other,
6:21
Speaker 1: they are twenty eight, forty six and two this season.
6:26
Speaker 1: I don't know what ats percenters that is, if someone
6:29
Speaker 1: can throw that in the chat, but it is the
6:31
Speaker 1: worst start for the betting public through four weeks in
6:36
Speaker 1: the past twenty years. And by the way, their best
6:39
Speaker 1: week was last week when they went six and eight
6:43
Speaker 1: and Simon and I happen to suffer the consequences of
6:46
Speaker 1: some of that. So when we talk about betting against
6:49
Speaker 1: the public, it is historically a good idea. It is
6:52
Speaker 1: definitely a good idea. This year, we're going to get
6:54
Speaker 1: into it starting with this very first game. And Simon,
7:00
Speaker 1: Washington and Baltimore. Baltimore is still six and a half.
7:03
Speaker 1: You are, and admittedly on the opposite side of the
7:06
Speaker 1: wise guys on this. You said that on Tuesday when
7:09
Speaker 1: you said you were into this game. This is great.
7:13
Speaker 1: Fifty two percent of the tickets are in Washington, fifty
7:16
Speaker 1: two percent of the money is on Baltimore. It is
7:18
Speaker 1: a one hundred percent pros Joe's split. I have not
7:24
Speaker 1: been able to come around to your side, and we
7:28
Speaker 1: have been looking to sell the Commanders right. How much
7:31
Speaker 1: higher can they fly? How much better can Jayden Daniels
7:35
Speaker 1: really be? Matchup wise? This does play to the raven strengths.
7:40
Speaker 1: They're one of the most efficient early down teams in
7:43
Speaker 1: the league going against one of the worst early down offenses.
7:47
Speaker 1: And we've said this before, like against the Chiefs last
7:52
Speaker 1: season in the title game, which if the Ravens had
7:56
Speaker 1: just run the ball, they would have dominated that game.
8:00
Speaker 1: If they can do that keep Jayden Daniels off the field. Historically,
8:06
Speaker 1: teams covering the spread by five points or more like
8:09
Speaker 1: the Commanders only cover forty three percent of the time.
8:13
Speaker 1: So that's that's my Raven's take. I know you have
8:18
Speaker 1: Commander's take here, So I don't know if I can
8:22
Speaker 1: help put you over the edge and being bullied.
8:25
Speaker 2: Can't because I got my man Evan here, who's got
8:28
Speaker 2: some amazing numbers. If you look at just teams who
8:32
Speaker 2: were playing on seven days rest or less that played
8:35
Speaker 2: an overtime and now they're playing against a team that
8:38
Speaker 2: hasn't played over time, they are just forty two percent
8:43
Speaker 2: against the spread. Guess who fits that description This Raven's team. Yeah.
8:46
Speaker 2: And there's there's a bunch of other stuff that trends
8:50
Speaker 2: a point to this team here and this Commander's team.
8:54
Speaker 2: I think you kneel it though. The fear here is
8:56
Speaker 2: when do we get off this boat? And it was
8:58
Speaker 2: same with last week. It was like I knew that
9:01
Speaker 2: was the right spot to take watching against the Cleveland
9:04
Speaker 2: But me and Chat have done this long enough to
9:06
Speaker 2: know that eventually it's gonna fall off. Like it's just
9:10
Speaker 2: how football is. You just can't be consistently great every
9:13
Speaker 2: week and everything goes so smooth. And what this kid
9:16
Speaker 2: doing is doing right now, Jane Daniels, that we've just
9:18
Speaker 2: you know, I've never seen anything like it with a
9:20
Speaker 2: rookie being so confident that nobody.
9:22
Speaker 1: Has seen anything. It's it's literally precedent setting.
9:27
Speaker 2: So I told you my view of it is pretty simple.
9:30
Speaker 2: These professionals, they've bet ten K against them when they're
9:34
Speaker 2: playing against Arizona. They've done twenty K when it was
9:36
Speaker 2: against Cleveland. Now they're up to thirty K. I mean,
9:38
Speaker 2: they're just going to keep up in the bet because
9:40
Speaker 2: they know eventually it's going to hit for him. And
9:41
Speaker 2: I just I don't agree with the logic, and I
9:44
Speaker 2: don't know. I just I won't take watching on the
9:46
Speaker 2: money line here because we know the Lamar stats against NFC. Right,
9:49
Speaker 2: He's twenty one and one straight up against the NFC.
9:53
Speaker 2: That's a big deal, right, He's historically even if he
9:56
Speaker 2: doesn't cover the big spreads, which me and you always
9:58
Speaker 2: love to fade Lamar in this spot like this is
10:01
Speaker 2: when he does not cover, he does not cover.
10:03
Speaker 1: Then in eighteen is a spread of more than a
10:05
Speaker 1: field goal. Say that number again, seven and eighteen as
10:09
Speaker 1: against the spread as a favorite of more than a
10:12
Speaker 1: field goal.
10:13
Speaker 2: So you know we have to do long term. This
10:16
Speaker 2: is a bet you're supposed to make, like this is
10:18
Speaker 2: a bet you're supposed to make on the Commanders because
10:20
Speaker 2: long term it is a winner.
10:21
Speaker 1: Right, But there's so many trends that say long term,
10:23
Speaker 1: this is a bet on the Ravens. There's one thing
10:27
Speaker 1: you said last week that sort of hammered home. Why
10:33
Speaker 1: that gives me a little pause, which is this Ravens
10:38
Speaker 1: defense at the end of the game tends to go
10:43
Speaker 1: soft right when teams have to pass against them. That
10:47
Speaker 1: is their greatest weakness. They are not a good pass
10:49
Speaker 1: defense right now, and Jaden Daniels the opportunity to have
10:55
Speaker 1: to be throwing the ball. If they're down by thirteen points,
11:00
Speaker 1: they're down by twelve points, they're down by ten points,
11:04
Speaker 1: they're down by eight points, down by seven points. All
11:09
Speaker 1: of a sudden, the back door is wide open. And
11:14
Speaker 1: as much as I think the Ravens are the right side,
11:17
Speaker 1: I don't want to bet on this defense against Jayden
11:20
Speaker 1: Daniels at the end of the game where the Commanders
11:24
Speaker 1: can't win, but they can certainly get closer, and nobody's
11:28
Speaker 1: on that team is going to stop playing. That's what
11:30
Speaker 1: worries me. But do I feel good enough about betting
11:33
Speaker 1: on a back door hope? Do you know what I mean? Yeah?
11:36
Speaker 2: I think we're all just you again. Like I said,
11:39
Speaker 2: we mean you've done this long enough to know that
11:41
Speaker 2: this is just a fishy line. There's a couple of
11:43
Speaker 2: fishy lines this week, and this is one of them
11:44
Speaker 2: where it's like, I don't get why this number is
11:47
Speaker 2: so big. I think they would be getting just as
11:49
Speaker 2: much action on Washington if this was four and a
11:50
Speaker 2: half then they would if it was six and a half.
11:53
Speaker 2: So that's what say. It scared me a little bit
11:56
Speaker 2: is the books are taking a position. Professionals are taking
11:59
Speaker 2: a position with the books long term. That's usually a
12:03
Speaker 2: nice spot to be. So unfortunately it's probably not gonna
12:06
Speaker 2: be one of our five. But I don't know. I'm
12:08
Speaker 2: dug in here on Washington. I do like washing at
12:09
Speaker 2: this number. It's just all the other outside noise and
12:13
Speaker 2: everything else is just giving me a lasitation here because
12:15
Speaker 2: we just know something's off about this number in this line,
12:18
Speaker 2: and to me, it's either the books. You're protecting knowing
12:22
Speaker 2: that if they had made this number shorter, they'd be
12:25
Speaker 2: get a lot more Washington money, and maybe they're taking
12:27
Speaker 2: a position that way. But yeah, this is definitely one
12:30
Speaker 2: of the games that, even if I don't have a
12:32
Speaker 2: lot of money on, it's gonna be one of the
12:33
Speaker 2: center TVs.
12:35
Speaker 1: Simon, we have to do two things on this show today.
12:38
Speaker 1: We have to give people a foxhole and we have
12:41
Speaker 1: to give people our big ball Better the Week presented
12:48
Speaker 1: by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy John
12:52
Speaker 1: has the support. Great games start with great underwear. The
12:57
Speaker 1: sign over my shoulder says it all and Tommy John
13:01
Speaker 1: makes the greatest and what we are going to do
13:05
Speaker 1: today right now with our big balls, we are going
13:09
Speaker 1: to tell people to do something that will require support
13:15
Speaker 1: because you and I are both in on the New
13:18
Speaker 1: England Patriots as seven point underdogs at home against the
13:24
Speaker 1: Houston Texans. I like it for the spot, I like
13:28
Speaker 1: it for the matchup, I like it for the number.
13:32
Speaker 1: I like it for the trends. It is our big
13:36
Speaker 1: Balls bet of the Week, Simon. I even check the weather.
13:44
Speaker 1: It's going to be beautiful in New England. Let's roll
13:47
Speaker 1: are you with me?
13:49
Speaker 2: I am Chad, But historically it's not ideal to bet
13:52
Speaker 2: rookies in their first start. But I think from your
13:55
Speaker 2: perspective and my perspective is this is when we want
13:58
Speaker 2: to fade this Houston tea. They're on the road. CJ
14:01
Speaker 2: is a favorite, and not even just a short favorite.
14:04
Speaker 2: He's a seven point favorite in this matchup without Nico
14:07
Speaker 2: Collins and maybe without Joe Mixon once again, And like,
14:10
Speaker 2: to me, that's the big deal here. The fear for
14:14
Speaker 2: us is Newland's offensive line is terrible and they've had
14:17
Speaker 2: some really serious injuries to that that you know that
14:20
Speaker 2: should really benefit this Houston team attacking. But isn't this
14:24
Speaker 2: the quarterback you want behind a bad offensive line? That Broussette,
14:27
Speaker 2: who's a statue back there. You want Drake May who
14:29
Speaker 2: can move and you know, to me, he's gonna be
14:31
Speaker 2: a one or two read and pull the ball down
14:33
Speaker 2: and run the ball, which is honestly what I want
14:35
Speaker 2: with this team right now, New England. So I get
14:38
Speaker 2: people's hesitation here. I looked in our contest before we
14:41
Speaker 2: got on here. It is six and a half. That's
14:44
Speaker 2: obviously a choice will have to make. I mean maybe
14:45
Speaker 2: if we get lucky, it gets seven and a half
14:48
Speaker 2: comes Sunday, if more money comes in on Houston. But
14:50
Speaker 2: you know, I'm not gonna let that scare me off here.
14:53
Speaker 2: I think you're right, like, we have to play this spot,
14:55
Speaker 2: play this number. This isn't that terrible of a matchup
14:58
Speaker 2: for this New England team. The only pause for me,
15:01
Speaker 2: once again is just they lost a lot of guys
15:04
Speaker 2: in the offensive line and that that should benefit this
15:06
Speaker 2: Houston team. But should they be a seven point favorite?
15:09
Speaker 2: I don't think so. I don't think Chad thinks that either.
15:11
Speaker 2: I think this is way too much respect for Houston
15:14
Speaker 2: team that this season they're one and four against the spread,
15:17
Speaker 2: like they're a team that the books have no they
15:19
Speaker 2: can prop up and the public will come in heavy
15:21
Speaker 2: on them and that's good for the book. So yeah,
15:24
Speaker 2: I think we're getting an extra point and a half
15:25
Speaker 2: of value here. Chet's I'll definitely take this number on
15:27
Speaker 2: New England.
15:28
Speaker 1: Well, looks Simon, if you want to fade the public,
15:32
Speaker 1: this is the game to do it, because about ninety
15:37
Speaker 1: percent of the tickets are coming in on Houston. I
15:41
Speaker 1: want to remind people underdogs of six plus points are
15:45
Speaker 1: now eleven or eight straight up in sixteen to two
15:48
Speaker 1: and one against the spread. Do you want to bet
15:51
Speaker 1: a public bet against the public? Sorry, I just got
15:54
Speaker 1: something in my eye. Bet against the public after a
15:57
Speaker 1: bad game, you do sixty one percent against the spread
16:03
Speaker 1: to the team that had just played terribly since two
16:06
Speaker 1: thousand and five, that is the New England Patriots. I
16:12
Speaker 1: agree with you. At first, I was a little bit
16:14
Speaker 1: worried about Drake May being the starter but that offensive
16:20
Speaker 1: because it feels like malpractice to put in that guy
16:23
Speaker 1: behind that offensive line, which is terrible. But it's terrible
16:26
Speaker 1: whether the guys are injured or not. And I agree
16:28
Speaker 1: with you. What you're going to get from Drake May
16:30
Speaker 1: is someone who's a really good athlete who's going to
16:32
Speaker 1: be mobile and is going to move, so it actually
16:35
Speaker 1: could counteract the pressure. Don't forget the Texans have the
16:38
Speaker 1: best pressure rate of any defensive line in the NFL
16:41
Speaker 1: and Dneil Hunter has the league best pressure rate of
16:44
Speaker 1: any defensive lineman at twenty nine percent, So it doesn't
16:48
Speaker 1: matter how bad this is, it might actually play to
16:51
Speaker 1: their advantage. And you mentioned CJ. CJ on the road
16:55
Speaker 1: this year is just a different player. His ypa yards
16:58
Speaker 1: per attempt and his touchdown rate are both way way down,
17:03
Speaker 1: and now they have no Nico Collins, who has been
17:05
Speaker 1: the best wide receiver in the league. And as you said,
17:08
Speaker 1: Joe Mixon he didn't practice yesterday, so again he's a veteran,
17:12
Speaker 1: but he hasn't played in a few weeks. It's not
17:14
Speaker 1: looking good for him to be at full strength on Thursday.
17:19
Speaker 1: So I feel like this continues to be a good
17:24
Speaker 1: spot and biggest luck rankings gap on the board twenty
17:31
Speaker 1: five places, sixty two percent against the spread. Historically, go Pats, go.
17:39
Speaker 2: Yeah, I think both of you, but we both know
17:41
Speaker 2: going into this why we might not cover. It's just
17:43
Speaker 2: because Drake May is a rookie mick in his first start,
17:45
Speaker 2: and he could do some really stupid shit. You know,
17:49
Speaker 2: a little Bernie told me this. This move didn't come
17:52
Speaker 2: from the head coach or the coaching staff. This came
17:54
Speaker 2: from ownership. After watching that Miami game where you know,
17:58
Speaker 2: if it was Drake May, I think they probably would
18:00
Speaker 2: have beat Miami in that game. Brissett just played so
18:02
Speaker 2: bad that I think after watching they just go, we
18:04
Speaker 2: have to make this change. Because I do agree with
18:07
Speaker 2: most people saying that, well, their whole reason for nowt
18:10
Speaker 2: starting was their offensive line. They didn't want to ruin them,
18:12
Speaker 2: right because they had such a bad offensive line. Now
18:14
Speaker 2: the offensive line is even worse now they're playing them.
18:16
Speaker 2: And I just told people it's the ownership. I think
18:19
Speaker 2: they're just sick of watching Brusett and they're just like,
18:21
Speaker 2: you know what, we see three other rookies out there
18:24
Speaker 2: playing really well, winning games. We have to see what
18:27
Speaker 2: we have here in this kid. So I totally understand
18:29
Speaker 2: why they're putting Drake in at this point. I know
18:31
Speaker 2: the fans are like not really understanding what the move is.
18:34
Speaker 2: I think it's just it's watching all these other guys
18:36
Speaker 2: enjoy their new toys and you're just sitting there with
18:38
Speaker 2: Brissette and you're just like, we can't just keep throwing
18:40
Speaker 2: this guy out here. This is just terrible football.
18:43
Speaker 1: You know who doesn't get swayed by public pressure. Good
18:47
Speaker 1: moment and Simon Hunter, the co host of the Favorites podcast,
18:51
Speaker 1: which is why even after a not great start to
18:54
Speaker 1: the year, we're undaunted when we put in the New
18:58
Speaker 1: England Patriots as our Big Balls Better of the Week
19:01
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Speaker 1: to Tommy John dot com slash favorites. All right, this
19:30
Speaker 1: next game, I'm so bummed Simon India Tennessee. Tennessee is
19:36
Speaker 1: now a two and a half point favorite. And on Tuesday,
19:40
Speaker 1: we want to put a pin in this one and
19:41
Speaker 1: see what the sharp calls might have to say or
19:44
Speaker 1: how we felt after we dug in a little bit more.
19:47
Speaker 1: And yesterday this line got up to one and a
19:49
Speaker 1: half in the afternoon, and like, I didn't pull the
19:52
Speaker 1: trigger because I kind of want to hear what you
19:54
Speaker 1: had to say about it. But I spent twenty five
19:57
Speaker 1: minutes on the game and I'd fallen I love with
20:01
Speaker 1: the Titans, Oh geezs Home Dogs, and I was ready
20:05
Speaker 1: to blow your mind with why we should do it.
20:08
Speaker 1: And then late yesterday afternoon it had been Tennessee plus
20:12
Speaker 1: one and a half flipped to minus one. Now it's
20:14
Speaker 1: at minus two and a half. I don't know why.
20:17
Speaker 1: I don't know if this is Pittman. I don't know
20:18
Speaker 1: if this is because they think Anthony Richardson might play
20:21
Speaker 1: Who's Yea better? But I was devastated because I felt
20:27
Speaker 1: good about the Titans at plus one and a half.
20:30
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's Anthony Richardson, And I would be pretty terrified
20:34
Speaker 2: if I was a fan of the Colts and realization
20:37
Speaker 2: that Anthony Richardon is worth three and a half points
20:40
Speaker 2: less than Joe Flacco. That is rough, But that's what
20:44
Speaker 2: it has to be like to me. There's no other
20:46
Speaker 2: reason for that type of movement, especially where you know,
20:50
Speaker 2: I talked to a book maker yesterday. It's all Colts
20:52
Speaker 2: money right now. So like that was where I was
20:54
Speaker 2: gonna come around and be on your Tennessee side of
20:55
Speaker 2: It was just like, okay, this this is clearly a
20:58
Speaker 2: trap being laid by the books. The professionals came in,
21:02
Speaker 2: they hit this number, the books moved that with him.
21:05
Speaker 2: It's still a lot of Colts money. So I don't know, Chef,
21:09
Speaker 2: if this got to three three and a half. I'd
21:11
Speaker 2: really be tempted to come back on the Colts just
21:12
Speaker 2: because this Tennessee team and Will Levis is that bad.
21:16
Speaker 2: You know, this Colts team as much you want to
21:20
Speaker 2: knock Anthony Richardson that he's not as good as Joe Flackett,
21:22
Speaker 2: which I agree with. You know, his style of play
21:25
Speaker 2: in that offense, when they cater around him, it's it's
21:28
Speaker 2: pretty damn good. Like he threw what the beginning of
21:32
Speaker 2: the season, he was winning close, ugly games, and he
21:35
Speaker 2: was keeping his team in these ugly games. So there
21:38
Speaker 2: might be a little bit of overreaction too much. I mean,
21:40
Speaker 2: at what point does the line move too much on
21:43
Speaker 2: him coming in? That's what I'll wait on now, because
21:45
Speaker 2: I'm with Chad. I didn't understand this line when it opened.
21:48
Speaker 2: I wanted to be in the Colts. Tennessee was obviously
21:50
Speaker 2: the right side. Now it's moved so much. I'll just wait.
21:53
Speaker 2: Hope this gets the three and I'll throw a little
21:55
Speaker 2: bit on the Colts here. But I'm happy this one
21:59
Speaker 2: won't be in our because I can't imagine me letting
22:02
Speaker 2: Chad talk to Chad talking me into taking Will Loves
22:04
Speaker 2: as one of our five here.
22:05
Speaker 1: And dude, my arguments were so good, Like, honest to god,
22:09
Speaker 1: yesterday afternoon I was working on this. It's the game
22:12
Speaker 1: I spent the most time on because all of a sudden,
22:17
Speaker 1: I was doing the work and looking at the numbers
22:20
Speaker 1: and seeing who was going to be playing, and thinking
22:24
Speaker 1: about the bye week and thinking about when have the
22:26
Speaker 1: cults done well? And why have they done well? And
22:29
Speaker 1: what have the circumstances been, all those things that we
22:31
Speaker 1: think about, and I'm like, Titans are the side, And
22:37
Speaker 1: I was like, so in, I'm kind of glad I
22:41
Speaker 1: didn't pull the trigger because now hearing you, I would
22:44
Speaker 1: have been more nervous. But I definitely felt like I
22:47
Speaker 1: was going to be able to convince you, like I'm
22:48
Speaker 1: on the list. I made my preliminary list yesterday. They
22:52
Speaker 1: were definitely like top six yesterday. The Titans to me
22:56
Speaker 1: at plus at plus, you know, at a plus number.
22:59
Speaker 2: But I read your stat your favorite stat about you know,
23:02
Speaker 2: a team moving from a dog to a favorite on the.
23:04
Speaker 1: Line seems to open his underdogs and close as a favorite.
23:08
Speaker 1: Historically struggle to cover that number seventy one and one
23:12
Speaker 1: hundred against the spreads in twenty nineteen forty two. So
23:16
Speaker 1: the flip side of this is now all of a
23:20
Speaker 1: sudden that makes the Colts decide.
23:25
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it's again the hesitation here. I mean, we'll
23:28
Speaker 2: talk about there's a couple games this week with the
23:30
Speaker 2: books are really taking up position on them, but this
23:33
Speaker 2: is clearly one of them. Like if you look in
23:35
Speaker 2: our app right now, it's still all Colts much.
23:37
Speaker 1: All cult Yeah, so it's ridiculous.
23:41
Speaker 2: Be careful out there, people.
23:44
Speaker 1: Yeah, I agree, Like if there's something something fishy, something fishy,
23:49
Speaker 1: you know, something smell right, something to smell right. Arizona
23:54
Speaker 1: green Bay, Green Bay still a five point favorite. I
23:59
Speaker 1: am shocked that there is no conversation about this game
24:04
Speaker 1: from professionals there.
24:06
Speaker 2: But it's split.
24:07
Speaker 1: It's like the line isn't really moving. Like everything I
24:12
Speaker 1: said on Tuesday still to me is true today. It's
24:17
Speaker 1: kind of a funky line. The eye test makes me
24:20
Speaker 1: lean Packers Cardinals just won their biggest game of the year.
24:25
Speaker 1: Like the biggest difference is to me, the Cardinals are
24:31
Speaker 1: a very public dog, and that makes me feel better
24:36
Speaker 1: about the Packers right now. I don't have it up.
24:42
Speaker 1: I lost the tab, but the public number on this
24:46
Speaker 1: game real quickly I'm getting to it is, you know,
24:51
Speaker 1: sixty percent of the tickets are on the Cardinals, sixty
24:55
Speaker 1: three percent of the money on the Cardinals. So it
25:00
Speaker 1: feels like, at least from a public point of view,
25:03
Speaker 1: they like the Cardinals, which makes me like the Packers
25:05
Speaker 1: even more.
25:06
Speaker 2: Yeah, and the professional bits I talk to, it's split
25:09
Speaker 2: where the trend betters people who just simply bet trends,
25:13
Speaker 2: they love the Cardinals in this spot. A lot of
25:16
Speaker 2: really good trends to this Cardinals team, and a lot
25:18
Speaker 2: of good trends that fade Green Bay in this spot.
25:21
Speaker 2: But a lot of the professionals I talk do they
25:23
Speaker 2: like what we like here with Green Bay kind of
25:25
Speaker 2: in a nice spot against the Cardinals team that you know,
25:28
Speaker 2: we expect to have a letdown game. But yeah, after
25:31
Speaker 2: reading Evans article, I got a little bit of pushback
25:34
Speaker 2: on that Kyler is actually not as bad as you
25:35
Speaker 2: think he would be in this spot. Historically, teams actually,
25:40
Speaker 2: you know, beating divisional divisional games as a big underdog
25:44
Speaker 2: actually performed pretty well on this spot going on the
25:46
Speaker 2: road back to back weeks. But I don't know, Chad,
25:49
Speaker 2: There's something I can't shake here where feels like we're
25:51
Speaker 2: still getting value. And it's like, what, I still think
25:53
Speaker 2: this number should be closer to six and a half seven.
25:56
Speaker 2: I still like it. If you still like it, if
25:57
Speaker 2: you want to put it in as one of our favorites,
25:59
Speaker 2: I honestly wouldn't fight you on it. It's like I
26:01
Speaker 2: bet this number, I bet Green Bay in this spot.
26:04
Speaker 2: You know, to me, I get all the drama. They
26:07
Speaker 2: have a wide receiver right now. They were still able
26:09
Speaker 2: to figure out how to move the ball downfield last week,
26:11
Speaker 2: and if that means getting more touches to their tight end,
26:14
Speaker 2: Lafloor is happy to do that. Like this man just
26:16
Speaker 2: knows how to game plan and just how to attack
26:18
Speaker 2: defense's weaknesses. So you know where I stand with this
26:22
Speaker 2: Arizona team. I think they do have a really exciting offense.
26:26
Speaker 2: I just I just don't think they have the guys
26:28
Speaker 2: on defense to get stops like they've just been so bad.
26:31
Speaker 2: And if, like we talked about last week, the forty
26:33
Speaker 2: nine ers gonna lose their kicker, that was a totally
26:35
Speaker 2: different game. They looked like a totally different team in
26:37
Speaker 2: that second half, where you know, we haven't really seen
26:39
Speaker 2: that from multiple teams that have played Arizona. So yeah,
26:43
Speaker 2: this is this is a tough one in your chat.
26:44
Speaker 2: It's it is split. I'm trying to find an angle
26:47
Speaker 2: on it. That really makes me love this Green Bay team.
26:49
Speaker 2: At the end of the day, it's just I just
26:50
Speaker 2: like the number. And that's the toughest part here.
26:53
Speaker 1: I know, I can't find I can't find the thing.
26:58
Speaker 2: Well, I was hoping edyone would give me some good
27:00
Speaker 2: news on his trends, but it was all it was
27:02
Speaker 2: all Arizona, man.
27:03
Speaker 1: It was all Arizona. And like, look, we go through
27:09
Speaker 1: a checklist on these things, right. We look for the
27:12
Speaker 1: home dogs. We look for games in which we think
27:16
Speaker 1: the book is going to shade one side or the
27:18
Speaker 1: other because of public perception of how a team played
27:21
Speaker 1: the week before. The Bengals are a perfect example that
27:25
Speaker 1: the car I mean, not the Bengal. The Bengals are
27:26
Speaker 1: a perfect example. That the Commanders are a perfect example
27:30
Speaker 1: that the Cardinals are a good example of that. But
27:33
Speaker 1: then we're also looking at the matchups and we try
27:36
Speaker 1: to glean like which side might have a true edge,
27:40
Speaker 1: And then we're looking at the trends and like, nothing
27:44
Speaker 1: says Packers other than to me, the eye test and
27:49
Speaker 1: this team. There are some numbers nothing, but I mean
27:54
Speaker 1: nothing overwhelming that says to me one side or the other, this.
27:58
Speaker 2: Might make you feel better though the Cardinals have allowed
28:01
Speaker 2: This is from our guy Evan. The Cardinals have allowed
28:03
Speaker 2: opposing qbs to complete a combined seventy two point five
28:06
Speaker 2: percent of their passes this season. They're allowing eight point
28:10
Speaker 2: fourteen yards per attentph, the third highest ranked market in NFL.
28:14
Speaker 2: Their pass defense is thirtieth and drop back per EPA
28:18
Speaker 2: and thirty second in drop back success rate. So this
28:23
Speaker 2: is really us saying, jordan Love, this is a bet
28:25
Speaker 2: on you. Like yes, like this is really us betting
28:29
Speaker 2: on him to really dominate this Cardinals defense that has
28:31
Speaker 2: been atrocious against the pass.
28:34
Speaker 1: I think you just perfectly captured what I was trying
28:37
Speaker 1: to say in numbers when I said this is an
28:40
Speaker 1: eye test game. To me, we've been seeing Jordana Love
28:43
Speaker 1: get a little bit better and he wasn't preferred against
28:47
Speaker 1: the Rams, but he made the throws he needed to make.
28:49
Speaker 1: Now we're three weeks back from the injury, we're back
28:53
Speaker 1: at home against a defense that you know, if you
28:56
Speaker 1: want to compare to the Vikings, who was his first
28:59
Speaker 1: game back is one of the best defenses in the
29:01
Speaker 1: NFL and one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL,
29:04
Speaker 1: and Brian Flores. He is not doing that this week
29:07
Speaker 1: against the Cardinals, and the Cardinals' offense is turnover prone
29:13
Speaker 1: against a very opportunistic Packers defense. So that's why. And
29:19
Speaker 1: I think we are getting a little bit of a
29:21
Speaker 1: benefit in the number. Will it be on a final five,
29:23
Speaker 1: I don't know, because we don't like to put too
29:25
Speaker 1: many favorites in, and I do think we both feel
29:27
Speaker 1: strongly about Detroit, but it certainly is in the mix.
29:34
Speaker 1: For me, we still got to get a foxhole. We
29:38
Speaker 1: haven't gotten there yet. Tampa Bay at New Orleans. Look
29:46
Speaker 1: to me, this was a pass. The only reason I
29:50
Speaker 1: put it in is because now I feel like it's
29:52
Speaker 1: the Saints or nothing like. This number has moved so
29:56
Speaker 1: much because of the Derek Carr injury news. I'm actually
30:01
Speaker 1: not that afraid of betting on Spencer Rattler at home
30:05
Speaker 1: as a dog or betting against the Bucks. Yeah, you know,
30:08
Speaker 1: on the road as now nearly four point favorites, like
30:13
Speaker 1: it just feels like too much to me.
30:16
Speaker 2: I know, I regret I'm making assignment, says guy. I
30:18
Speaker 2: as soon as we got done the show, I always
30:20
Speaker 2: just hammering that two and a half on that Bucks number,
30:22
Speaker 2: and I told people I was gonna bet it, they
30:24
Speaker 2: should bet it just in case Derek Carr was out.
30:27
Speaker 2: But you're so right, Like now that it's three and
30:29
Speaker 2: a half, I know we're supposed to take this kid
30:32
Speaker 2: and this Saints team, but man, like, when you really
30:36
Speaker 2: dive into it, like the Saints losing their center, I
30:38
Speaker 2: didn't realize how big of a deal was going to
30:40
Speaker 2: be for them. I think they're zero and three since
30:42
Speaker 2: he's gone out. Yeah, like they just have not been
30:44
Speaker 2: the same team since that offensive line got banged up.
30:47
Speaker 2: And you know, say what you want about Derek Carr,
30:50
Speaker 2: he's one of the best deep throwers of the ball
30:52
Speaker 2: this season. Like he's been really good attacking deep downfield.
30:55
Speaker 2: And that's what their offense is, right, the kind they
30:58
Speaker 2: kind of burn you with the run and then they
30:59
Speaker 2: hit you into play, actually go deep on you. I
31:01
Speaker 2: don't know if I have faith in a rookie to
31:03
Speaker 2: come in and run the style of offense. So yeah,
31:06
Speaker 2: Chad's right, if you're out there and you want to
31:08
Speaker 2: take the three and a half. I get it, but
31:10
Speaker 2: I'm gonna dig in. I'm gonna take the Bucks here,
31:12
Speaker 2: probably still at minus three and a half. I just
31:14
Speaker 2: I keep thinking about them trying to run the ball
31:16
Speaker 2: against Vita today, and it's just I don't know how
31:19
Speaker 2: they establish a run with this Saints team. And you know,
31:23
Speaker 2: say what you want about this Bucks team coming off
31:25
Speaker 2: that loss to Atlanta. I feel like they're gonna be
31:28
Speaker 2: desperate here. And that's really when we've seen the Bucks
31:30
Speaker 2: be good when they're really not desperate but a little
31:33
Speaker 2: bit right, like when they're not counted out. This is
31:36
Speaker 2: when they're good. So Chad's right. Historically, I don't want
31:39
Speaker 2: to back the Bucks here. We like them when they're
31:41
Speaker 2: either a short favorite or a dog, neither of which
31:44
Speaker 2: they are here. So I'm good with passing on this one.
31:47
Speaker 2: But I get where you're coming from saying that it's
31:48
Speaker 2: probably the spot to take New Orleans. I just I
31:51
Speaker 2: can't get there. I just think they're a bad team
31:53
Speaker 2: right now.
31:55
Speaker 1: I'm a little surprised to hear you say that. This
31:57
Speaker 1: feels so chalky of you.
32:00
Speaker 2: Chalk wins, baby, not always, but certain spots. But yeah,
32:04
Speaker 2: I'm with you. I wanted to be on the Saints,
32:06
Speaker 2: but I don't think the numbers moved enough for me
32:08
Speaker 2: to take them.
32:09
Speaker 1: God, that's fascinating. All right.
32:11
Speaker 2: Did you watch Spencer Rattler.
32:14
Speaker 1: I watched him in college. I actually there's a.
32:17
Speaker 2: Reason he was whatever it was, a fifth round pick.
32:19
Speaker 3: Yeah.
32:19
Speaker 1: Look, I mean I felt like I think back to
32:22
Speaker 1: those that year when he was taking over at Oklahoma
32:26
Speaker 1: and everyone thought he was win the Heisman. Yeah, and
32:29
Speaker 1: within four games, Caleb Williams was on the field bringing
32:33
Speaker 1: him back against Texas, and all of a sudden, you know,
32:36
Speaker 1: he was eighteen months away from winning the Heisman himself
32:39
Speaker 1: and then becoming probably will end up being the greatest
32:42
Speaker 1: quarterback in the history of football, with the most excellent
32:48
Speaker 1: franchise at developing quarterbacks in the history of football. So
32:53
Speaker 1: I've always felt a little bit bad for Spencer Ratler,
32:55
Speaker 1: and I watched a bunch of those South Carolina games,
32:57
Speaker 1: and he can sling it, for sure, but he's got
33:01
Speaker 1: a little bit of a Taylor Heineke vibe, right like,
33:05
Speaker 1: he'll make these plays that will feel great. This is
33:07
Speaker 1: what I'm projecting, and then he's going to lose that
33:09
Speaker 1: game for us. If we had bet it. You know
33:11
Speaker 1: what I mean. Chargers at Denver, this one deserves some conversation.
33:18
Speaker 1: I love this game for the Chargers on Tuesday. I
33:20
Speaker 1: think you did too. From a ticket and money well.
33:23
Speaker 2: Just because we don't understand the line. Yeah, I told
33:25
Speaker 2: you I had this plane at one and a half.
33:26
Speaker 2: It was three. I was like, there's something I'm clearly
33:28
Speaker 2: missing here with this Chargers team.
33:29
Speaker 1: Look, the Broncos are clearly the public dog. They're getting
33:33
Speaker 1: about sixty percent of the tickets, and the line has
33:37
Speaker 1: moved in their direction. It's gone for three to two
33:39
Speaker 1: and a half, which I don't mind. I know that
33:44
Speaker 1: taking the Chargers goes against the home division dog trend,
33:51
Speaker 1: but there's also I think a sell high trend in
33:54
Speaker 1: the Chargers favor, the same one I mentioned with the Commanders.
33:57
Speaker 1: These teams that have been covering by more than five
34:00
Speaker 1: points per game historically covered a forty three percent rate.
34:05
Speaker 1: So like, I like a lot of what I'm seeing
34:12
Speaker 1: for the Chargers, I do worry where giving them a
34:16
Speaker 1: little bit too much credit for Joe Alton Rashaun Slater
34:21
Speaker 1: coming back. We still don't know what's happening with Bosa.
34:25
Speaker 1: Denver's run game is actually better than the Chargers. We
34:28
Speaker 1: like to think about the Chargers as a run team,
34:30
Speaker 1: but their early down success as a run team has
34:33
Speaker 1: been better against common opponents. Bo Nicks has been a
34:37
Speaker 1: better quarterback than Justin Herbert this year. I know that's
34:40
Speaker 1: hard to say, but I'm not as all in as
34:45
Speaker 1: I was on Tuesday.
34:48
Speaker 2: Well, just because of what we talked about. Like, I've
34:50
Speaker 2: talked to a bunch of professionals and they like Denver
34:53
Speaker 2: as well, and that's I'm with you on that where
34:55
Speaker 2: it's like I want to be with you, guys, I
34:57
Speaker 2: want to be on Denver. This feels like this is
34:59
Speaker 2: their smart side, but you have the spidy senses like
35:02
Speaker 2: I do. There's something off about this number, something very
35:04
Speaker 2: telling that makes me want to take this Chargers team.
35:07
Speaker 2: And you know, a couple of books moved them to
35:09
Speaker 2: two and a half. I bet it. It's like, Okay,
35:11
Speaker 2: now it's under three, I might as well take the
35:14
Speaker 2: Chargers here. I thought it would keep going down. Now
35:17
Speaker 2: most of these books are back up to three. So
35:20
Speaker 2: it's a little telling, Like clearly there's professional money out
35:23
Speaker 2: there that's driving this money. This number back up the three.
35:27
Speaker 2: Now look at the matchup. I do want to give
35:29
Speaker 2: a ton of credit to Joe Wall. Like this kid coming,
35:31
Speaker 2: I knew he was going to be really good watching
35:34
Speaker 2: his tape through the first three weeks before he got hurt.
35:37
Speaker 2: He was really good. Like the way he handled Nex
35:40
Speaker 2: Crosby as well without help was incredible. Like his one
35:43
Speaker 2: on ones against him were so impressive for a first
35:46
Speaker 2: year starter. To me, the what I think, what I
35:49
Speaker 2: thought you thought on Tuesday is this offensive line can
35:53
Speaker 2: neutralize the strength of Denver right now, which is their
35:56
Speaker 2: front seven. Like that to me has been the difference
35:59
Speaker 2: this season for den Is how good their front has
36:01
Speaker 2: been playing. But you can counter that with a really
36:04
Speaker 2: good offensive line and a great run blocking scheme, which
36:07
Speaker 2: we believe the Chargers have here, Chad. So I do
36:10
Speaker 2: think this is a nice you know, sell high in
36:13
Speaker 2: the Denvers by low on this Chargers team, And if
36:16
Speaker 2: it is minus two and a half, maybe I'll be
36:18
Speaker 2: able to convince you. But I can see it's just
36:20
Speaker 2: not one of your favorite bets, which I totally understand.
36:22
Speaker 2: But yeah, this is another favorite just like Green Bay.
36:25
Speaker 2: I'm dug in on here.
36:27
Speaker 1: Wow, God, that's so fascinating. On Tuesday, on Tuesday, I
36:33
Speaker 1: was so dug in on Green Bay and the Chargers,
36:37
Speaker 1: and forty eight hours later, I'm wavering because we's been favorites.
36:41
Speaker 2: We like ben dogs, that's who we are, right.
36:43
Speaker 1: But on Twoda and on Tuesday you were sort of
36:46
Speaker 1: not as dug in on idea because.
36:47
Speaker 2: I didn't get this line at first. I was just like,
36:49
Speaker 2: what are these guys? Seemed? But again, I've talked to
36:51
Speaker 2: enough bookmakers professionals, and I see the reasoning behind it,
36:55
Speaker 2: and sometimes again my model is just going to be wrong,
36:57
Speaker 2: And that's what I was just. I was like, how's
36:59
Speaker 2: my model so off on this one? How's it off
37:01
Speaker 2: by point and a half? But yeah, my only hesitation
37:05
Speaker 2: right now is still I don't really have concrete word
37:07
Speaker 2: on what's going on with Herbert. And I've seen footage
37:10
Speaker 2: him in practice and moving around. He looks all right,
37:12
Speaker 2: but it's like it's practice, right, He's not really being pushed.
37:16
Speaker 2: So that to me is the hesitation here where it's like,
37:19
Speaker 2: would I much rather take Detroit than this number? Hell? Yeah,
37:22
Speaker 2: Like I know exactly what Detroit is. I know even
37:24
Speaker 2: if it's my three and a half, I have more
37:26
Speaker 2: confidence than that than I do in the two and
37:27
Speaker 2: a half Chargers here, So that's my hesitation.
37:30
Speaker 1: Here is just the Herbert News interesting. All right, all right, well,
37:35
Speaker 1: let's talk about Detroit. Let's talk about Detroit at Dallas.
37:39
Speaker 1: Let's talk about how this number got up to three
37:42
Speaker 1: and a half. This was my exact decision, and I
37:46
Speaker 1: do worry that I'm walking into it a little bit.
37:50
Speaker 1: It's a road favorite. It's the public side. I did
37:55
Speaker 1: bet at at three. I love it based on all
37:59
Speaker 1: the matchups and the fundamentals, especially at the line of scrimmage.
38:04
Speaker 1: Every advanced metric you can think of, run block, win rate,
38:10
Speaker 1: adjusted line yards, whatever crap the geeks are making up
38:15
Speaker 1: these days, has the Lions O line top two, top
38:19
Speaker 1: three in the NFL, if not first, And every one
38:24
Speaker 1: of those metrics has the Cowboys run defense rated as
38:30
Speaker 1: I think the technical term is trash. So the Lions
38:35
Speaker 1: are a more violent team and football is violence.
38:41
Speaker 2: Yeah, and again the reasoning for the pros, like when
38:43
Speaker 2: I was talking, guys, why do you like this Dallas side?
38:46
Speaker 2: I just don't think it's smart like they're saying. Dan
38:50
Speaker 2: Campbell's an't predictable. This This team relies so much, so
38:53
Speaker 2: much on their fourth down success rate. That's flukey game
38:56
Speaker 2: to game, no way around it. Really, Ultimately that falls
38:59
Speaker 2: on me. It's my fault. This Cowboys team is at
39:02
Speaker 2: the lowest point. This is a good Bilo spot. I'm like,
39:05
Speaker 2: they just won on a you know, a fourth and
39:07
Speaker 2: four drive against Pittsburgh on Sunday night. So I just
39:11
Speaker 2: disagree with a lot of it. And this is a
39:13
Speaker 2: number that me and you might be totally wrong on.
39:15
Speaker 2: We're missing something here, but you know all the historical
39:18
Speaker 2: data that Detroit hasn't beat Cowboys in Dallas and forever
39:24
Speaker 2: and all these different stuff. But it's like, I throw
39:26
Speaker 2: it out exactly. I just told view it that way.
39:28
Speaker 2: So I'm with Chad here, give me the best offensive
39:32
Speaker 2: line that's great at run blocking against a suspect defensive
39:36
Speaker 2: line that doesn't have their best run stopping defender. So
39:39
Speaker 2: the only thing I can think here, we're gonna get
39:41
Speaker 2: burned by a bad golf game because the last time
39:44
Speaker 2: we saw him he was perfect. I think he was
39:45
Speaker 2: eighteen for eighteen in their last win. You know, coming
39:48
Speaker 2: off of bye week. Does that get in his head?
39:49
Speaker 2: Does that get in the whole team's head? Right? Do
39:51
Speaker 2: they come out sluggish in this game against a team
39:54
Speaker 2: that technically this is a short rest week, right, they
39:57
Speaker 2: were running away game on Sunday night, so they didn't
39:59
Speaker 2: get home till what day morning to let their body
40:01
Speaker 2: start healing. It's just everything lines up to love this
40:05
Speaker 2: Detroit team. I do not get this line. So I'm
40:08
Speaker 2: hoping this is just like Washington Cleveland last week chat,
40:10
Speaker 2: where the books are dead fucking wrong hanging a three.
40:14
Speaker 2: Even if this is minus three and a half in contest,
40:16
Speaker 2: I feel like we're going to force this one in regardless.
40:18
Speaker 4: It has been years since the Detroit crowd has been
40:20
Speaker 4: this excited about.
40:21
Speaker 2: The Lions talk about restoring the roar. Listen to him.
40:28
Speaker 1: God, it's so interesting you say that because I don't
40:32
Speaker 1: look at Jared Goff as potentially having a down game
40:34
Speaker 1: was because he was perfect. I think he was perfect
40:37
Speaker 1: within the context of the offense. It's not like he
40:40
Speaker 1: was thirty five of thirty seven for five hundred yards
40:43
Speaker 1: and six touchdowns because they were coming back right Like
40:48
Speaker 1: he was eighteen of eighteen and played a brilliant game
40:54
Speaker 1: working off of the game plan. And I think that,
40:56
Speaker 1: to me is indicative of what the Lions have done
41:00
Speaker 1: on what Ben Johnson has done, what Dan Campbell has
41:03
Speaker 1: dictated be done as the head coach of that team
41:06
Speaker 1: in terms of what their emphasis is going to be
41:09
Speaker 1: and honoring the fact that they have the best offensive
41:13
Speaker 1: line in football and they can control the line of
41:16
Speaker 1: scrimmage and he wants to be physical. And it's similar
41:20
Speaker 1: to me, like the thinking about the Chargers. And that's
41:24
Speaker 1: why both of these feel strange to me, Like why
41:29
Speaker 1: are on other people seeing what I'm seeing? But I'm
41:32
Speaker 1: glad you are. That makes me happy you and I
41:36
Speaker 1: together like that. All right, So Detroit's in, I mean
41:40
Speaker 1: Detroit's in. Yeah, Atlanta, Carolina, here we go. Jesus fucking
41:47
Speaker 1: I hate everyone. I hate everyone associated with the Carolina
41:51
Speaker 1: Panthers and bookmakers for posting this number. This number is
41:55
Speaker 1: at six. I stole some stats. Actually Network has a
42:00
Speaker 1: weekly passer play column, right, and this was a stat
42:04
Speaker 1: in the passer play column this week. Atlanta's three wins
42:10
Speaker 1: this season have come by combined nine points, and it's
42:15
Speaker 1: possible the Falcons could have and should have lost all
42:19
Speaker 1: of those games. Week two, game winning two minute drive
42:24
Speaker 1: against the Eagles when the Eagles had a ninety seven
42:28
Speaker 1: point six percent win probability with less than two minutes remaining.
42:33
Speaker 1: Game three, a game winning fifty six yard field goal
42:38
Speaker 1: after the Saints had an eighty four point five percent
42:42
Speaker 1: win probability with forty one seconds left. Week five, over
42:49
Speaker 1: time win against the Bucks when the Bucks had a
42:53
Speaker 1: ninety three percent win probability with twenty two seconds left.
43:01
Speaker 2: Seriously, Chad, let's hop in that foxhole. Give me the
43:05
Speaker 2: Carolina Panthers plus six. You know me, regardless of what's
43:09
Speaker 2: going on, I'm a foxhole guy. I commit to a team,
43:11
Speaker 2: I commit to a city. I'm a foxhole guy. Now
43:14
Speaker 2: I have a stat that might make you feel a
43:16
Speaker 2: little better from our guy, Evan. All Right, Kirk Cousins
43:18
Speaker 2: career after a straight up win, He's thirty one forty
43:23
Speaker 2: three and two against the spread, so forty two percent
43:26
Speaker 2: after a straight up win, the second worst mark of
43:29
Speaker 2: two hundred and forty four QB since two thousand and three,
43:32
Speaker 2: ahead of only Jay Cutler. Now as a favorite of
43:37
Speaker 2: four points or more in that spot, Kirk Cousins four
43:40
Speaker 2: and fourteen against the spread, Like he just he's dog
43:45
Speaker 2: shitting this spot historically, and we're getting an inflated line.
43:49
Speaker 2: There's no one left, Chad, this is it me and
43:51
Speaker 2: you are it. We're the only people left that are
43:53
Speaker 2: still betting Carolina this week. And to me, this is
43:57
Speaker 2: the exact spot we want to be in, Like Line
44:00
Speaker 2: is going to struggle with is a team that defensively
44:04
Speaker 2: has you know they can attack a young quarterback right
44:07
Speaker 2: there's to me, their greatest strength right now is their
44:09
Speaker 2: safety position. Like their safeties might be the best of
44:12
Speaker 2: football at deceiving quarterbacks, giving them false reads, not letting
44:17
Speaker 2: them get moved with the QB's eyes and something like
44:20
Speaker 2: Amy Dolton can kind of neutralize that he's done and
44:22
Speaker 2: seen at all, and you know this is historically a
44:25
Speaker 2: nice matchup for him. Then you add in fact that
44:28
Speaker 2: this is an outdoors game, which historically Kirk is better
44:31
Speaker 2: indoors than he is outdoors. And you know the fact
44:35
Speaker 2: that I'm looking at our action app right now, it's
44:38
Speaker 2: less than eight percent of the bests, less than seven
44:40
Speaker 2: percent of the money right now is on this Panthers team.
44:43
Speaker 2: How do we not love this team to cover this game?
44:45
Speaker 2: And just went straight up like, to me, this is
44:47
Speaker 2: just everything about this game just screams upset and you
44:51
Speaker 2: just read it though this Atlanta team has been incredibly
44:54
Speaker 2: lucky and fortunate at the end of these games. And
44:57
Speaker 2: even if we don't win this one outright, I feel
45:00
Speaker 2: like we're going to cover it. Like it just feels
45:02
Speaker 2: like either we're going to back door with Atlanta or
45:04
Speaker 2: we'll get back door by Atlanta and we'll still cover
45:06
Speaker 2: this six. So I love this number, the fact that
45:09
Speaker 2: hasn't budged all week. You know, I was hoping for
45:12
Speaker 2: a contest. This is gonna get up to six and
45:14
Speaker 2: a half. I don't know if it's gonna get there.
45:16
Speaker 2: We might stick five and a half, but I'm okay
45:18
Speaker 2: with that. I just I love this spot for this
45:19
Speaker 2: Carolina team.
45:22
Speaker 1: Of the tickets on the Falcons. Like you said, we
45:25
Speaker 1: got a team coming off a bad game. We got
45:28
Speaker 1: dogs of six plus points or more. We got division dogs. Historically,
45:36
Speaker 1: this is the only side to play. Here's my challenge
45:41
Speaker 1: to you. That's giving me a little pause, and it's
45:43
Speaker 1: why I couldn't go full throttle on Tuesday. The Panthers
45:47
Speaker 1: run blocking this season has been outstanding, right up there
45:51
Speaker 1: with the with the Lions. This sort of amongst the
45:53
Speaker 1: leave's best. They lost two offensive linemen on Sunday against
45:58
Speaker 1: the Bears. That was huge for them. It changed the
46:03
Speaker 1: scope of that game. And now we've got a team
46:06
Speaker 1: that can't get any pressure from its defensive line and
46:09
Speaker 1: a team that its only advantage was in run blocking,
46:14
Speaker 1: and I don't think they'll be as good at run
46:17
Speaker 1: blocking as they have been this season. I do worry
46:21
Speaker 1: about their ability to move, and now I worry about
46:24
Speaker 1: their ability to put any pressure on Kirk Cousins defensively,
46:28
Speaker 1: and Kirk Cousins with a clean plocket, clean pocket, it's
46:32
Speaker 1: pretty great. So that's my biggest concern. Like everything you're
46:36
Speaker 1: saying is right, but as a matchup, I worry that
46:40
Speaker 1: the Panthers will not be able to execute.
46:42
Speaker 2: No, it's a disagree with you. And they're one and
46:43
Speaker 2: four against the spread and one and four this season.
46:46
Speaker 2: They suck. This is a bad team, but this is
46:48
Speaker 2: this is life beting bad teams. You're just playing the
46:50
Speaker 2: numbers here. I know it's tough getting this foxhol Chad.
46:57
Speaker 1: Are we seriously talking about the Panthers and the Patriots
47:04
Speaker 1: And with a couple more games to go that are
47:06
Speaker 1: so gross when we are having a dreadful season so far,
47:11
Speaker 1: Like you gotta be freaking kidding me.
47:15
Speaker 2: We're one five and zero week away from being five hundred.
47:17
Speaker 2: We're not that bad.
47:18
Speaker 1: That's true. That's true, all right, Cincinnati at the New
47:22
Speaker 1: York Giants. This was your Simon Says, and you were
47:24
Speaker 1: spot on. It's definitely trending towards three. It's another home
47:30
Speaker 1: underdog playing against a massive public favorite in the angles,
47:35
Speaker 1: like I don't have the trends here, but I do.
47:42
Speaker 1: Clearly the market believes you are. Simon says is accurate,
47:45
Speaker 1: and we got to jump on the Giants.
47:48
Speaker 2: Yeah, and it was really honestly, we talked about it.
47:49
Speaker 2: I was just I really thought Neighbors be cleared by now,
47:52
Speaker 2: and this will move by half a point because to me,
47:54
Speaker 2: that's what neighbors. Neighbors is worth half a point to
47:57
Speaker 2: a full point to the spread for this Giants team.
47:59
Speaker 2: And right now I have a greade at two and
48:01
Speaker 2: a half. That's with neighbors in this game. If Neighbors
48:04
Speaker 2: doesn't play, I'll move this number back up to three.
48:07
Speaker 2: But I'm still having half a point of a key
48:09
Speaker 2: number in this matchup against I think we can both
48:12
Speaker 2: agree on I Cincina defense, that's just fraudulent, Like they
48:16
Speaker 2: they had to show up in that game, right, They
48:18
Speaker 2: just had to show up for one or two downs,
48:21
Speaker 2: and they could not do it against Lamar. And that's
48:25
Speaker 2: what I can't shake here. Where I want to be
48:27
Speaker 2: with Chad. I wanted to be on the Bengals because
48:29
Speaker 2: I've seen invested in their futures and I'm just like this,
48:31
Speaker 2: this is a perfect bounce back spot for them in
48:34
Speaker 2: their primetime game after that brutal loss. But I just
48:37
Speaker 2: think the Giants are too well coached and they've been
48:39
Speaker 2: playing too well to just be rolled over here. And
48:42
Speaker 2: you know, even though I thought this was going to
48:45
Speaker 2: be more public, I thought more public money would come
48:48
Speaker 2: on the Giants. Chad just said it like this is
48:50
Speaker 2: all Bengals money. All the tickets are on the Bengals
48:53
Speaker 2: as well. So I would take the three and a
48:56
Speaker 2: half here and hold and just hope maybe that you know,
49:00
Speaker 2: Neighbors gets cleared and that would give me even more
49:02
Speaker 2: confidence here. But if there is no Neighbors, Dad, I
49:05
Speaker 2: don't know if I'm going to force us to put
49:06
Speaker 2: this in as one of our five because it's just
49:09
Speaker 2: to me that Seattle game that got a little lucky
49:12
Speaker 2: to win that one without them, right, like a lot
49:14
Speaker 2: of things broke their way that offensively, Seattle played terrible.
49:19
Speaker 2: And you know, Daniel Jones had, my mind, the best
49:22
Speaker 2: game I've seen him have since his first start ever
49:24
Speaker 2: against the Bucks, which was like five six years ago.
49:27
Speaker 2: So I love this Ghiints team. I love how their
49:30
Speaker 2: defense matches up against this offense for the Cincinnati as well.
49:34
Speaker 2: So yeah, you can see I really like this spot
49:37
Speaker 2: for this team. And yeah, it's all about the numbers.
49:41
Speaker 2: If this was two and a half, I'd be happy
49:43
Speaker 2: to play Cincinnati here, it's three and a half, I'm
49:45
Speaker 2: gonna take the value and play the Giants here.
49:47
Speaker 1: Well, look, as having is pointed out, this is the
49:50
Speaker 1: first weekend where the spreads aren't so so tight, right.
49:56
Speaker 1: We've got a few games that are six plus points
49:59
Speaker 1: again the spread, But this has been an historically year
50:03
Speaker 1: year for short numbers, and I think heading into the
50:08
Speaker 1: week the average spread it was four point two points
50:10
Speaker 1: per game. Those half points, just on a percentage increase,
50:15
Speaker 1: mean more when the numbers are shorter, So I get it.
50:18
Speaker 1: I'm a little anxious about this one for the contest,
50:21
Speaker 1: like you said, because the neighbors, we got a lot
50:23
Speaker 1: of games we can we can throw in there. Last
50:28
Speaker 1: game also disgusting Buffalo with the New York Jets. So
50:32
Speaker 1: now we know it's not going to be Robert Sala.
50:35
Speaker 1: He was fired Tuesday morning right before we came on
50:37
Speaker 1: the air. We know that there's going to be a
50:39
Speaker 1: new play caller. We know you want to bet on
50:43
Speaker 1: the team that is the that is against the public
50:48
Speaker 1: after a bad game the Jets. We know we want
50:51
Speaker 1: to bet on home dogs. We know we wanted to
50:53
Speaker 1: bet the dead cat bounce one of stuck his favorite trends,
50:57
Speaker 1: which is betting on the team that has a brand
50:59
Speaker 1: new coach. I'll be honest, this this is a massive
51:05
Speaker 1: pros Joe's game. Like seventy seven percent of the tickets
51:08
Speaker 1: on the bills. The money is split but trending in
51:14
Speaker 1: favor of the Jets, like it'll get to fifty to
51:16
Speaker 1: fifty pretty soon, So clearly it's a it's a professional game.
51:21
Speaker 1: It was that two and a half. Has it moved
51:23
Speaker 1: back to two?
51:24
Speaker 2: No, it's still two and a half, so you can get.
51:26
Speaker 1: Two and a half. I kind of like this better
51:30
Speaker 1: than the Giants and the contest. To be honest, I
51:33
Speaker 1: don't know how you.
51:33
Speaker 2: Okay, I don't I like the Giants better, but that's fair.
51:37
Speaker 2: Uh just it's the Obviously, the matchup for this Jets
51:42
Speaker 2: defense is great. They always play Josh Allen really well.
51:46
Speaker 2: To me, it's all the injuries to this Bills team.
51:48
Speaker 2: The Bills just have so many injuries to keep players.
51:52
Speaker 2: You just see last week against Houston had changed their
51:55
Speaker 2: whole team, especially, you know this their offense is just
52:02
Speaker 2: I don't know what they are yet. And you know,
52:04
Speaker 2: through five weeks, you know they that they had moments
52:08
Speaker 2: where Josh Allen looked incredible, right like the MVP we
52:10
Speaker 2: all know and love, and then you just see the
52:12
Speaker 2: hits piling up and it's just like they're asking so
52:15
Speaker 2: much of their superman to do, Like when does this
52:17
Speaker 2: catch up to him? And this is not a matchup
52:20
Speaker 2: where you want to all beyond Josh Allen's shoulders, right
52:22
Speaker 2: this this Jets defense they tend to turn him over
52:26
Speaker 2: and they play him really tough. I mean, even going
52:28
Speaker 2: back to the last three years when Sala was there,
52:30
Speaker 2: they played really well. I know he's gone now, but
52:33
Speaker 2: the scheme's still the same. The guy who's stepping in
52:35
Speaker 2: there is kind of like not his clone, but basically
52:38
Speaker 2: the same kind of guy. So yeah, looking at this matchup,
52:43
Speaker 2: already liked the number. Now you're mixing in what you
52:46
Speaker 2: just said. They got rid of the head coach, they
52:47
Speaker 2: made a change offensive coordinator. I think if this hasn't
52:51
Speaker 2: let a fire under this Jets team's ass, then then
52:53
Speaker 2: in their season is over. Like this has to be
52:56
Speaker 2: the everything game. They throw it all out there. So
53:01
Speaker 2: even talked about Josh Allen being banged up, right, that
53:03
Speaker 2: was another part of this. So we love, we love
53:06
Speaker 2: this number. We love this matchup. Our hardest thing is
53:09
Speaker 2: having to wait until Monday to know what our final
53:11
Speaker 2: five is, so that that's the only thing I might
53:13
Speaker 2: keep this out from being one of our five.
53:14
Speaker 1: But I know that's honestly, I know this sounds stupid,
53:18
Speaker 1: but I got to travel on Monday. I like, I
53:22
Speaker 1: really won't be able to settle in for the game,
53:26
Speaker 1: Like I don't like when I get I'm traveling to LA.
53:29
Speaker 1: I don't know if I can be awake when I
53:31
Speaker 1: to watch the end of the game, Like I'm just
53:33
Speaker 1: it's like I don't know if my heart can take it.
53:36
Speaker 2: No, it's tough, but yeah, I love this one, and
53:40
Speaker 2: I think Chad does too, so uh this is probably
53:42
Speaker 2: why this guy end up got on money line round
53:44
Speaker 2: robin parlays. But uh yeah, we're literally betting on Josh
53:48
Speaker 2: Allen to lose three straight games, which I thought was
53:50
Speaker 2: scared than Evan. Nice Nice. Evan told us that actually
53:53
Speaker 2: happened last year, So don't be too scared off by
53:56
Speaker 2: betting Josh Allen to lose three straight.
53:57
Speaker 1: Games, turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for
54:05
Speaker 1: the money line parlay. Well, listen, speaking of our money
54:10
Speaker 1: line parlay. Each week we give out a two team
54:15
Speaker 1: money line underdog parlay, and bet three six five boosts
54:19
Speaker 1: the odds and highlights it on their site all weekend
54:23
Speaker 1: under both game pages. And remember both games are eligible
54:27
Speaker 1: for bet three six five's early payout promo, where your
54:31
Speaker 1: money line pick gets marked as a win if they
54:34
Speaker 1: take a seventeen point lead even if they lose. So
54:38
Speaker 1: if you want to bet this, bettered at bet three
54:40
Speaker 1: six five and the boosted money line parlay is a
54:46
Speaker 1: better Panthers Jets, find the boost under either the Panthers
54:53
Speaker 1: or Jets game pages on bet three six five. Also
54:59
Speaker 1: a favorite contest reminder, Everyone's lowest weekly score in the
55:03
Speaker 1: contest has officially been dropped. The updated total scores are
55:07
Speaker 1: now on the leaderboard. We are officially in a race
55:12
Speaker 1: for our forty thousand dollars first place prize. Good luck
55:17
Speaker 1: to everyone. All right, now we got to get into
55:22
Speaker 1: our money line underdog round Robin.
55:27
Speaker 4: There will come up Heayday, Halla lou Yo wanna pay Day.
55:31
Speaker 2: There will come.
55:32
Speaker 4: Up Payday someday. Someday, there will come up payday. Halla
55:37
Speaker 4: lou Yo wa Payday, tire, I will come up.
55:40
Speaker 2: Payday some day.
55:44
Speaker 1: Clearly we're gonna have the Panthers and the Jets. We
55:49
Speaker 1: should probably put in the Giants.
55:51
Speaker 2: Okay, do we go with a pick? Neither of us
55:56
Speaker 2: are on, but the public loves in Denver money line.
55:59
Speaker 1: Okay, oh man.
56:03
Speaker 2: I mean, I really want to go against the Ravens,
56:05
Speaker 2: but Lamar just doesn't lose those games. But that's that's
56:08
Speaker 2: a nice value on Washington plus two thirty five.
56:11
Speaker 1: I'm surprised you're hesitating because I thought for sure you
56:14
Speaker 1: were going to put that in there.
56:15
Speaker 2: I would, but Evans trends scare the shit, am. He's
56:17
Speaker 2: only lost one game in his career, but again, it
56:19
Speaker 2: was to the NFC East. So maybe, yeah, maybe that's
56:21
Speaker 2: his scrypted nit NFC East.
56:23
Speaker 1: So now you're reaching deep into the bag of hope
56:29
Speaker 1: to try to pull out your favorite get.
56:31
Speaker 2: It's a tough week to find dog wins. Honestly, why
56:34
Speaker 2: don't we do the Colts? All right?
56:35
Speaker 1: Let's do the Colts?
56:36
Speaker 2: Yeah, all right?
56:37
Speaker 1: So the money line round robin that is gonna be Panthers, Jets, Giants, Broncos, Colts. Simon,
56:47
Speaker 1: you can score letting.
56:48
Speaker 2: Now are we skipping it again?
56:49
Speaker 1: No, no, it's in the script. I'm going in order now. First,
56:53
Speaker 1: I need your biggest bets.
56:56
Speaker 2: Who right now? My biggest bet it's our Detroit Chalk Giants,
57:04
Speaker 2: not Chalk Jets, New England, and probably gonna be Green Bay.
57:11
Speaker 2: I mean, like right now, my two biggest ones right
57:14
Speaker 2: now are the Cowboys, I mean the Lions and the Giants.
57:17
Speaker 2: But I can see me adding more to the other
57:19
Speaker 2: positions by Sunday.
57:21
Speaker 1: It's weird how those could be the exact five we
57:24
Speaker 1: end up putting in.
57:25
Speaker 2: It could be terrible for us, It's true.
57:28
Speaker 1: It's just like, if we were to look at it
57:31
Speaker 1: right now, I think it'd be hard to leave New
57:33
Speaker 1: England out it'd be hard to leave the Jets out unfortunately.
57:42
Speaker 1: Like we both feel really good about Detroit, you know.
57:46
Speaker 2: Yeah, And.
57:49
Speaker 1: I feel like I convinced you on Green Bay and
57:51
Speaker 1: now you've convinced me. Two favorites and three underdogs, like
57:55
Speaker 1: very possible, that's where we end up landing. I'm not
57:57
Speaker 1: in a rush to put anything in right now.
58:00
Speaker 2: Knows where we leave out. It's definitely gonna win.
58:03
Speaker 1: Yeah, So listen, Scoot Roulette, You're three and two this year.
58:08
Speaker 1: Somehow I'm on in five? What I think I do
58:13
Speaker 1: the math? Unless I did it wrong? Maybe, yeah, you won.
58:16
Speaker 2: I'm almost positive you one week one with me?
58:19
Speaker 1: Oh I did all right? All right, great, I'm winning four,
58:23
Speaker 1: not you. But you get to choose, Scoot Roulette, because
58:28
Speaker 1: you are winning the season long contest.
58:32
Speaker 2: All right, I'll be a scumbag. I'll take your pick.
58:34
Speaker 2: I'll take De Troit minus three.
58:35
Speaker 1: You are a fucker that is ruthless. All right, you
58:45
Speaker 1: know what I'm gonna do. Yeah, at this point, I
58:47
Speaker 1: got nothing to lose.
58:49
Speaker 2: It's true.
58:50
Speaker 1: Give me the Pats plus seven?
58:52
Speaker 2: Love it?
58:53
Speaker 1: I mean, why not? Yeah, Scot proud you know what
58:57
Speaker 1: he went as Scooch says when all hope is gone,
59:03
Speaker 1: all that's left is relief. It's true, and in scuotru
59:06
Speaker 1: led I've basically come to that Scooch isn't brought back
59:10
Speaker 1: from the old school. Pod Jesus those are.
59:13
Speaker 2: That's high praise, man, I love it.
59:15
Speaker 1: All right, we got our last word here with Evan Abrams,
59:18
Speaker 1: the director of research. Tell us something that'll make us happy, Evan,
59:22
Speaker 1: the last word with Evan Abrams. We're finished talking. All right.
59:28
Speaker 3: Well, we're into bye season. So with bye season comes
59:32
Speaker 3: me just telling you why Simon's picks are going to
59:34
Speaker 3: hit this week. But let's aside from that, let's just
59:37
Speaker 3: go with the Lions first. So team's off of bye
59:39
Speaker 3: versus a team not, which is very easy. Last twenty years,
59:42
Speaker 3: those teams win fifty six point one percent of games.
59:45
Speaker 3: Awesome when they're road neutral favorites, that actually goes up
59:49
Speaker 3: to seventy percent on the money line. Now that also
59:52
Speaker 3: includes the Chargers this week, So a little bit of
59:55
Speaker 3: buye back there in terms of how you guys might feel. Okay,
59:58
Speaker 3: one more level it which I think actually Simon brought
1:00:02
Speaker 3: this up earlier when talking about the game. So Dallas
1:00:04
Speaker 3: had that comeback last week and during the fourth quarter
1:00:06
Speaker 3: losing and won outright as underdogs. When those teams are
1:00:10
Speaker 3: dogs again in their next game after that situation, exactly
1:00:13
Speaker 3: as I spoke, thirty one and seventy one straight up,
1:00:16
Speaker 3: thirty percent forty six fifty six against the spread, forty
1:00:19
Speaker 3: five percent last decade. Just tough to get over that
1:00:23
Speaker 3: and do it again. And then you're talking about short
1:00:25
Speaker 3: week as mentioned, so a few factors would tell you
1:00:29
Speaker 3: to take the Lions. Now, let's talk about the Giants
1:00:32
Speaker 3: and Bengals for a second. So I kind of wanted
1:00:35
Speaker 3: to focus on just Cincinnati in this spot. Lots of scoring,
1:00:39
Speaker 3: high totals, ISH volatility isn't a great thing for predictability
1:00:43
Speaker 3: and covering spread. So Cincinnati right now is the only
1:00:46
Speaker 3: team in the NFL scoring twenty eight plus and allowing
1:00:49
Speaker 3: twenty eight plus. Those teams through five games just thirty
1:00:53
Speaker 3: seven and forty eight against the spread forty three percent
1:00:56
Speaker 3: last twenty years. When they're away from home, that falls
1:00:59
Speaker 3: to forty percent against the spread. When those teams are
1:01:01
Speaker 3: under five hundred, that falls to thirty eight percent. So
1:01:04
Speaker 3: just a good spot for the Giants in that one.
1:01:06
Speaker 3: And then I'll end here this game really wasn't talked
1:01:09
Speaker 3: about a ton. You've got Chad's Bears, you've got the
1:01:12
Speaker 3: Jaguars too, pretty much live in London, so I kind
1:01:14
Speaker 3: of wanted to give a few numbers on that game.
1:01:17
Speaker 3: So Caleb Williams, by my data, will be the sixth
1:01:20
Speaker 3: rookie quarterback to start an international game. They didn't wave
1:01:23
Speaker 3: and want any Oh and to five straight up. Oh
1:01:25
Speaker 3: and to five against the spread for the five lost
1:01:27
Speaker 3: by fourteen plus points. So a bit of a difficult
1:01:29
Speaker 3: spot in just a blanket term. Then you kind of
1:01:32
Speaker 3: look at Jacksonville's side. Peterson's four and one straight up
1:01:35
Speaker 3: on neutral sites, obviously winning the Super Bowl, but he's
1:01:37
Speaker 3: three and one with the Eagles and Jags overseas. Jags
1:01:41
Speaker 3: are actually themselves over five hundred straight up in ATS
1:01:44
Speaker 3: and international games, which I didn't think was actually the
1:01:47
Speaker 3: truth till I looked at it. Trevor Lawrence his fifth
1:01:50
Speaker 3: game overseas, He's three and one straight up at ATS
1:01:53
Speaker 3: against the number, He's actually scoring twenty two points per
1:01:55
Speaker 3: game in those games. I'll go one step further before
1:01:58
Speaker 3: I get out of here. So this is Trevor and
1:02:00
Speaker 3: Doug's fifth international game. It's only Caleb Beniberflus's first. Those
1:02:04
Speaker 3: coaches with two plus game experiences in that international game
1:02:08
Speaker 3: four and one straight up, when the QB also has
1:02:11
Speaker 3: a two plus experience, they're two and oh straight up.
1:02:13
Speaker 3: Very small samples, but probably just tells you what you
1:02:16
Speaker 3: would know anyway, which is experiencing these short week, weird
1:02:20
Speaker 3: overseas when you go games kind of matters.
1:02:24
Speaker 1: That means it's gonna be hard to bet the Bears
1:02:29
Speaker 1: this week.
1:02:29
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's what we were saying. You know, you're supposed
1:02:32
Speaker 2: to bet the Jacks here, but it is. It is tough.
1:02:34
Speaker 2: It's a tough one.
1:02:35
Speaker 1: It's a really tough one. As a reminder, the Favorites
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