Latest / World Ablaze with George Fontes / Attack on US Jets In UK: Iran Escalation and Saudi-China Shift (HM Intelligence)

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Attack on US Jets In UK: Iran Escalation and Saudi-China Shift (HM Intelligence) · World Ablaze with George Fontes

• 0:00
  welcome back to another world blaze today i have special guest daniel from hm intelligence to help
• 0:25
  us make sense of what in the hell has been going on in the world with all the conflicts.
• 0:30
  So we will be discussing a little bit about what's going on with Iran, the developments
• 0:36
  there with some maybe strange relationships.
• 0:40
  Hopefully Daniel will shed some light on what's going on with that.
• 0:42
  And then we're going to hopefully touch a little bit on the Ukraine-Russia conflict that seems
• 0:48
  to be never ending.
• 0:50
  And so without holding Daniel up too much longer, I'm going to bring him in and welcome
• 0:55
  Daniel. Welcome back. Thank you. It's been a while. Glad you had time for this.
• 0:59
  No worries. Thank you for having me.
• 1:02
  Right. Oh, man. Okay, sir. So let's get into, let's just get into things. I know you like to
• 1:10
  like to get rolling. So what just happened, I saw you make a post on it this morning because
• 1:16
  apparently about four hours ago, we have this here where UK police evacuate homes near airbase
• 1:23
  used by U.S. and detained men on suspected explosive offensive.
• 1:29
  So as of September 27, 2026,
• 1:33
  looks like the police declared a major incident near RAF Fairford
• 1:37
  following the arrest of several men on suspicion of explosive offenses.
• 1:43
  And the air base serves as European hub for United States Air Force operations
• 1:46
  in the Middle East, including flights over the Persian Gulf.
• 1:51
  I know this is brand new, but you being who you are, I'm sure you've probably already found a few things out.
• 1:57
  I just wondered if you could shed any light on this situation or if you know anything about it.
• 2:01
  I mean, there's pretty limited information at the moment from what I've seen outside of what you just said.
• 2:07
  Five people were arrested.
• 2:09
  It looks like one white British male and four black British males.
• 2:17
  can really pick their ethnicities specifically,
• 2:21
  but yeah, there's a photo of them all detained on the ground
• 2:25
  with armed police.
• 2:26
  And then there was also videos of EOD clearing two vans,
• 2:31
  two white vans that were parked near to the airport.
• 2:35
  Another kind of interesting tidbit that I saw was the US had moved
• 2:40
  their, like spaced out the aircraft that were based in Fairford.
• 2:45
  So they're now like separated by a few hundred metres around the tarmac,
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  which kind of to me indicates that at least they believe
• 2:52
  that the targets were going to be the aircraft
• 2:55
  and now they're trying to spread them out
• 2:57
  to make the targeting of multiple aircraft more difficult.
• 3:02
  There's also videos of like heightened force protection
• 3:05
  at the base with armoured vehicles doing patrols around the perimeter.
• 3:10
  So it definitely seems like a pretty significant threat.
• 3:16
  I mean, it's pretty easy to speculate who might be behind the threat.
• 3:21
  The assessment would be that Iran in some way has planned and directed this type of activity.
• 3:28
  They threatened earlier this year that if the UK did allow the US to use their bases for operations against them,
• 3:37
  then they would become legitimate targets by the Iranian regime.
• 3:40
  So it's not a huge leap of analytical theory to start pointing towards Iran as the perpetrator behind this.
• 3:50
  Whether the individuals were aware that that is who they were acting on behalf is currently unclear.
• 3:58
  There's a possibility that they were maybe convinced or put forward to do it under the guise of like a humanitarian mission.
• 4:06
  It's become like a thing in the UK where people opposing, especially Israel's war, go out and conduct sabotage operations against defense infrastructure and military aircraft.
• 4:23
  It's happened, I think I said that earlier this year or last year.
• 4:27
  I can't remember the exact day.
• 4:28
  But some people got onto the runway and started spray painting up military aircraft, stuff like that.
• 4:33
  So it's possible that these individuals were encouraged under a different guise to conduct this type of operation, though the presence of EOD kind of indicates a much higher level of capability here.
• 4:49
  So, yeah.
• 4:51
  That's interesting.
• 4:52
  So I didn't even consider that.
• 4:54
  This could simply also just be some kind of a protest.
• 4:57
  which is
• 4:59
  so and even with that being said
• 5:01
  have you been able to
• 5:03
  confirm on any sources out there
• 5:05
  as to whether or not there was actually
• 5:07
  explosives that they actually had explosives
• 5:09
  on hand? No there hasn't been
• 5:11
  any reports of like explosions
• 5:13
  in the area
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  so it doesn't appear that there was like a controlled
• 5:17
  demolition that took place or anything like
• 5:19
  that so
• 5:21
  currently no and also like
• 5:23
  depending on their level
• 5:26
  of intelligence that the authorities had when they were interdicting these individuals,
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  bringing in EOD may have just been a precaution.
• 5:34
  Like, you need to take it to the highest level of threat.
• 5:38
  If there was the possibility that these people had access or the capability to create homemade
• 5:44
  explosives, then I'm sure the precautions would be taken and EOD would be the first
• 5:49
  people to clear the vehicle anyway.
• 5:51
  So it's quite possible there was no explosives, and it was just a precaution.
• 5:57
  Got it.
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  So just precaution.
• 5:58
  But it seemed to trigger a pretty massive response.
• 6:02
  So something definitely to watch, right?
• 6:05
  And it's not far-fetched that this isn't tied to, as you said, to Iran and what's going on.
• 6:09
  They did make threats about attacking US bases around Europe as well as the Gulf states.
• 6:15
  Yeah, definitely.
• 6:16
  And there's been like the Telegraph, a newspaper in the UK.
• 6:20
  I don't know if you've heard of it.
• 6:22
  They wrote an article a few weeks ago, I believe, that they said that they had information that
• 6:30
  Iran was smuggling people into the UK using the migrant chains coming over in small boats.
• 6:37
  So there's definitely the possibility here that it is like a cell that was either directed
• 6:43
  or pushed by Iran.
• 6:46
  Maybe there's not enough information now, but considering this type of event, this type of action, what do you assess may be the UK response to something like this?
• 6:59
  I'd say it'd be pretty low level, to be completely honest.
• 7:04
  The UK could be pretty soft on this type of stuff.
• 7:09
  I think there'd probably be some harsh words spoken, possibly some sanctions.
• 7:14
  if they have a reasonable level of intelligence
• 7:18
  that they're willing to go public with,
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  because that's the other challenging thing, right?
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  It clearly seems likely that the government knew of these individuals
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  and interdicted them before they were mounting their attack,
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  possibly in the final stages of their attack
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  to ensure that they could be quite easily charged.
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  How they got their information could be a bit more difficult
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  to publicly disclose.
• 7:44
  So that will also kind of come into play
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  on how much they're going to call out Iran.
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  So say they use like high-level SIGINT
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  to intercept communications,
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  it's going to be pretty difficult to turn around
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  and be like, well, here's a top secret report
• 8:01
  that indicates X, Y, and Z.
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  They don't really want to go public with that stuff
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  because it shows capabilities.
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  And they may, well, they don't certainly want
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  to be using it again and again and again.
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  So if they have reasonable information
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  that they could publicly go with,
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  I'd say they'll call out Iran,
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  but outside of expelling some diplomats,
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  I don't think they'll do much.
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  Possibly provide more aircraft for air-to-air refueling
• 8:31
  for a defensive effort in the Middle East,
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  but it's highly unlikely they would commit
• 8:36
  to any type of kinetic operations against Iran.
• 8:39
  Yeah, I'm wondering though that because this has been reported as an attack primarily against US presence as on the base there or that facility, would this possibly strain further relations between the UK and the US?
• 8:56
  I think if the attack was successful, then it probably would.
• 9:01
  But it being interdicted, I think, will limit the kind of political fallout there.
• 9:08
  You never know with Trump, to be completely honest.
• 9:11
  He does sometimes take some interesting stances in public media, let's say.
• 9:19
  So I think he's an extremely hard individual to predict.
• 9:23
  So he could quite possibly try and flip this on a look how fucked the UK is.
• 9:29
  They've got terrorists everywhere type of rant.
• 9:33
  Right.
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  But at the end of the day, these people were detained before they conducted the operation.
• 9:40
  So I think it's a very limited kind of.
• 9:45
  Yeah.
• 9:46
  I just asked that question, Daniel, because it seems like the relations have been strained from the outset
• 9:51
  with this Iran conflict just because the proximity to Strait of Hormuz
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  and the fact that the UK and surrounding European nations
• 10:01
  get so much out of the Strait or shipped from there in terms of resources,
• 10:07
  and it's put a strain on Europe.
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  So I just wondered if this, and of course you gave a solid answer, I understand,
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  but it just does make me wonder if at what point where the final straw will land
• 10:21
  so to speak, to break that camel's back in relations between the U.S. and European nations,
• 10:25
  and maybe specifically the U.K. And so directly targeting U.S. assets, for example,
• 10:33
  as what we just saw or had reported, to me, regardless of how you look at it,
• 10:39
  it's still on U.K. soil, right? It's still there. So I just wonder how much more Europe will take
• 10:45
  before they either get involved directly or connectively or just turn their back on the U.S.
• 10:51
  And I don't know if that will happen, but it just seems like things are escalating and could get to that point.
• 10:57
  And I might be wrong.
• 10:58
  It's just how it appears.
• 11:01
  I think this is the grand challenge of gray zone operations, right?
• 11:06
  It's so hard to point at one specific thing and be like, that's why we're going to war with them.
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  It's very hard to justify to your own people.
• 11:18
  that Iran did that.
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  So we're going to war with Iran.
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  I guess that's like,
• 11:27
  Russia loves it as well, right?
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  This is the great game
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  that they've been playing
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  for the past two years at this point
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  of like,
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  will you attack us
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  because we blew up
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  some kind of energy facility
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  or an arms depot
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  or flew an explosive drone
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  into an airport?
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  Like, which one of these
• 11:47
  is the final straw?
• 11:48
  One of them could be, but it's very hard to make that argument to your own people that that's why we're going to war with them.
• 11:58
  Whereas to throw back to the Nazis invading Poland, it's a lot easier to be like, we're going to war with the Nazis because they invaded Poland.
• 12:07
  Because it's such a solid thing to point at and be like, that's why we're doing it.
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  Whereas like Greyzone, by virtue of its name, is just below the threshold of war where it's like, it's annoying and it's bad, costs lives and money and hurts your economy.
• 12:26
  But it's not enough to like warrant kinetic or like military response.
• 12:37
  Yeah, that's kind of how I look at it.
• 12:40
  Like yeah especially like the use of these guys quite possibly had no idea that they were working for Iran or like it be extremely hard and tentative to prove their links to Iran again publicly using declassified or unclassified information So like when you taking that information to say the UN to be like hey look the UN conducted a terrorist attack on our soil
• 13:08
  Iran can just be like, we don't know who those people are.
• 13:11
  How do you know it's us?
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  They just deny it outright, period.
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  And then so you're left in the situation of like,
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  do you then go to war with them to prove your point or what?
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  I don't know.
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  It's a very tricky situation.
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  And we're in a crazy time in human history, right?
• 13:34
  Right, right.
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  I completely agree with what you said, too.
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  I'm just becoming more and more concerned with U.S. and European relations in general.
• 13:43
  I mean...
• 13:44
  Oh, I totally agree.
• 13:45
  I'm not...
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  You can play it.
• 13:47
  I'm not at the point where I'm like, well, when is the U.K. or France going to kinetically
• 13:52
  get involved in this conflict or war?
• 13:54
  It's more like, at what point are they going to start looking at the relationship and going, I'm not sure this is worth it anymore.
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  And that's kind of, I guess, more of the question I was trying to ask.
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  And I know there may not be enough out there yet in terms of reports or what we know to lend the UK or France or anybody else to go, okay, we're done.
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  We're on our own.
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  The US could stand on their own.
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  but these actions and when you're looking at a specific targeted attack or attempt even if it's
• 14:29
  on u.s u.s assets or facilities it's still still on another nation's soils like the uk is hosting
• 14:34
  going okay here you can use this right and to me it's more like an attack on the uk not directly
• 14:41
  it's indirectly i understand that i understand where you're from but it's it's still you start
• 14:45
  to still wander. I would. If someone targeted any planes or whatever that were here on US bases,
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  they weren't targeting US assets, for example, but UK, I would still, as the United States,
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  if I was in charge, go, well, they're starting to attack the UK's assets on our own soil. Maybe
• 15:03
  there's something we need to look at. And so I think that's really kind of my concern is the US
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  at this point in the way Trump is acting, love or hate him, it's very divisive and it's really
• 15:14
  causing people to look elsewhere in terms of support.
• 15:18
  And that's going to lead to where we go next because recently, the Houthi attack on the Saudis, for example,
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  an attempt, I mean, basically they are Iranian proxies.
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  I mean, that's just what they are.
• 15:32
  And so the world has been reporting this as just a conflict between the Houthis and the Saudis
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  when it's really, to me, an attack, an indirect attack by Iran
• 15:41
  in an attempt to close down the ports and shipping lanes going out to the Red Sea so that it's more
• 15:47
  like, well, if we're going to close off the Strait of Hormuz, then we're going to close off the Red
• 15:50
  Sea and you're not going to be able to get anything out that direction either. And so with that,
• 15:55
  Saudi reaches out to the US and Trump says no. He says, well, we'll offer you intelligence,
• 16:00
  but we're not going to do anything else. And then so Saudi is looking for support elsewhere.
• 16:07
  And surprisingly, they reached out to China for that support.
• 16:12
  And it seems that China has stepped in and has asked Iran basically to cool it down.
• 16:19
  Do you have any insight to that or any assessments or anything that you can give us as to why that would be and what China's intention would be in actually stepping in and telling Iran to chill out on this situation for a bit?
• 16:34
  That was exactly how I was going to reframe that question as I was explaining it.
• 16:40
  Because I think that is the far more pertinent and much more time sensitive, let's say, just to quickly go back.
• 16:49
  I think-
• 16:49
  Sure.
• 16:51
  In Europe, I think that's a long way off, right?
• 16:53
  I think that's like a 20, 25, 30-year problem if things continue down the path that they're currently going.
• 17:01
  I think that problem though in the Middle East is a much more right now problem, especially
• 17:08
  not just for Saudi, for the UAE, for Bahrain, for Qatar, for Kuwait, for Iraq's already
• 17:14
  trying to remove US presence.
• 17:16
  I think that's a right now problem and something that could become a huge just issue for the
• 17:26
  US presence in the Middle East.
• 17:29
  But this one in particular, I think is a crazy situation.
• 17:36
  And it's a great chest move by Iran, right?
• 17:39
  They've ramped up the pressure tenfold.
• 17:45
  From what I understand and from what I've read, they sent military advisors to Yemen
• 17:51
  to provide on-the-ground support to the Houthis for this campaign
• 17:55
  down the coast of the...
• 17:58
  down to Baal-Mandeb Strait, I think that's how it's that.
• 18:04
  So they are heavily involved there.
• 18:08
  They are on the ground, promising them more support,
• 18:10
  more commanders, more training, more weapons,
• 18:13
  if they got that done, and they got it done.
• 18:16
  And not only did the US or Trump, the Trump administration,
• 18:20
  refused to provide kinetic support to Saudi Arabia.
• 18:25
  They then met with the Houthis a few days later
• 18:29
  and made a deal with them that the Houthis wouldn't target,
• 18:33
  well, basically anybody else apart from Saudi Arabia.
• 18:37
  So it kind of takes it to that next level.
• 18:39
  And I think that is what pushed Saudi to reach out to China for support.
• 18:46
  Interesting move though, right?
• 18:47
  to me to reach out to China, who's in complete opposition to the US.
• 18:51
  The US is supposed to be the ally to the Gulf states.
• 18:54
  The US doesn't step in to support them.
• 18:57
  And now the Gulf states, you know, what's interesting to me, Daniel, in all of this,
• 19:02
  though, if the Gulf states have been opposed to Iran and the regime all this time and they
• 19:07
  don't like what's happening, I haven't seen any case or reports, at least that I have seen,
• 19:12
  where any of the Gulf states have stepped up to support each other in doing anything.
• 19:17
  They're relying on air defenses.
• 19:19
  They're just defending themselves from the bombardment,
• 19:21
  but there hasn't been any forward attacks, for example, or engagement.
• 19:26
  So, yeah, go ahead.
• 19:28
  I was going to say, I think there's probably a fear
• 19:30
  that if they do conduct operations against Iran,
• 19:35
  it'll just ramp the conflict up to the next level.
• 19:38
  And I don't think they see that as beneficial.
• 19:43
  They were slash probably still are,
• 19:47
  Hoping that this can all be resolved and we can just go back to the status quo.
• 19:51
  They can keep selling their oil and move on with their lives.
• 19:54
  But it's becoming less and less likely.
• 19:58
  Is Iran really that big of a threat though if they all truly band together?
• 20:03
  Like really considerably combine all their resources and point it and direct it at Iran if they had to?
• 20:11
  Or are they still at a disadvantage even if they did that?
• 20:14
  Yeah, I think sadly the technical situation within the Strait of Hormuz has shown that
• 20:20
  outside of boots on the ground, reopening their strait militarily is nigh on impossible.
• 20:29
  They have that thing locked down just through a pile of different ways through having boats
• 20:38
  that can lay mines quite quickly and move.
• 20:41
  And then they have their drones that can attack ships.
• 20:43
  They have shorter ship missiles that can fire out of dug-in positions.
• 20:49
  It's basically a tactical nightmare for any military operation against it without just taking the land.
• 20:58
  And if you're invading a part of the country, you may as well just invade it all, right?
• 21:03
  It's like taking the mountains on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz is going to be just as painful.
• 21:12
  you may as well keep going because at that point
• 21:14
  they're going to fight you to the bitter end.
• 21:16
  You need to remove the government and just take over.
• 21:20
  So yeah, I don't think also militarily,
• 21:24
  in the nicest way possible,
• 21:26
  the Gulf states are not high-functioning military organizations.
• 21:32
  Right.
• 21:32
  As I think Saudi has shown,
• 21:35
  regardless of how much money you can pump into your military,
• 21:38
  there's a bit more to it than just having Gucci kit
• 21:41
  There's a bit of warrior ethos and good training and motivation and how you should fight, troops fight, which I think is something people have been saying about the Saudi conflict against the Houthis for years.
• 21:57
  I know it's not a hugely talked about conflict in most circles, but it's been a running joke within the intel community that Saudi Arabia has done a pretty piss-weak job at fighting what is essentially a militia for 10 years now.
• 22:18
  In reality, they should have cleared this problem up a long time ago.
• 22:22
  They have something like 250 modern fighter jets.
• 22:25
  Yes.
• 22:27
  They shouldn't even need to reach out to the US for kinetic support.
• 22:32
  They should be able to conduct their own kinetic operations.
• 22:35
  Why can't they?
• 22:36
  It's bigger questions here.
• 22:38
  Yeah.
• 22:39
  It's interesting you said that because I literally had this conversation with someone on another show that I was on.
• 22:46
  And you're right.
• 22:48
  Not a lot of people are talking about this.
• 22:50
  And I was asked, well, why can't Saudi just handle their own shit, basically?
• 22:55
  And I might be wrong.
• 22:57
  But this is how I saw it.
• 22:59
  And it's similar to what you said.
• 23:01
  It's like, sure, they have the air defenses, right?
• 23:05
  But they don't have the ground.
• 23:07
  They don't have the ground capabilities because they have troops, but they're not really properly trained and they don't have enough to really support a full-on engagement away from their own country, for example.
• 23:21
  And the other thing I saw is if they do that, it leaves their homeland vulnerable because they don't have enough capability to defend themselves if they split their forces up like that.
• 23:31
  And what you said about the warrior ethos and the training, I completely see that because they really do rely on mercenary forces and outside proxies to handle most of their actual conflicts.
• 23:41
  So it's almost like I don't know if they have a sense of patriotism in their country to where people are literally willing to fight or if they're just so used to that capitalist money and the tourist dollars that that's the only thing really holding it together.
• 23:54
  It was kind of my take on that and what I see.
• 23:59
  So Saudi is in trouble.
• 24:00
  I don't think they can really stand on their own and really defend themselves unless one of the allies really steps in to help them.
• 24:06
  So if this continues, do you see Saudi possibly being ran over and taken over and controlled?
• 24:16
  I don't think so.
• 24:18
  I don't think the US would allow that, to be completely honest.
• 24:23
  At the moment, Saudi is still a very essential ally for the US and the Middle East and the rest of the Western world.
• 24:30
  right? The UK has now stepped in to help them provide their defense from missiles. So they're
• 24:36
  providing like air-tier refueling capabilities for defensive operations only. That's the first
• 24:43
  sign of like, hey, we can't let this get too bad. Like the price of diesel in the UK, we pay per
• 24:49
  litre, has gone up 35p, which is 35 cents basically in the last two months. It's a huge, like basically
• 24:58
  25% increase in a few months.
• 25:01
  Just astronomical.
• 25:03
  So I don't think the Houthis
• 25:06
  aren't going to run an efficient
• 25:09
  oil revenue department, are they?
• 25:13
  No, they won't.
• 25:14
  The Western world can't just let that all fall apart.
• 25:18
  I agree that they can't.
• 25:21
  But let's just be honest.
• 25:23
  The UK and France,
• 25:25
  because even France announced
• 25:26
  that they were going to support Saudi.
• 25:28
  And so they weren't going to do anything until Trump said no.
• 25:33
  Okay.
• 25:34
  Yeah.
• 25:34
  And the biggest issue I see is I think that the U.S. is not doing a good job at stepping up to defend their allies.
• 25:43
  Because if we're being honest, the U.S. did start this and get everybody into this.
• 25:48
  And so you can't just, you don't have to say I did it.
• 25:52
  But the reality is if you going to do this you can just tell an important country like Saudi Arabia who has literally twisted themselves up in pretzels to accommodate the US all these years and the Western nations
• 26:08
  And then say, we're not going to support you when you're getting attacked by Iranian proxies, which wouldn't be doing this to this degree if we weren't at war with Iran in the first place.
• 26:17
  I mean, they still would be in a conflict, but it wouldn't be what we're seeing.
• 26:21
  This seems to be a very planned, directed attack.
• 26:25
  Yeah.
• 26:26
  Due to what's happening with the street.
• 26:28
  And so I'm glad the UK is stepping up because the reason I am is because they need to get involved.
• 26:34
  I mean, they're also one of Oman's oldest European allies.
• 26:36
  And it's like, hold on.
• 26:38
  Iran's been antagonizing Oman and their territorial waters all these years.
• 26:41
  But yet the UK hasn't really done nothing either.
• 26:43
  But they want to not defend you.
• 26:45
  I know you're for the UK, but the UK government.
• 26:48
  I'm not.
• 26:49
  I'm from New Zealand.
• 26:50
  Okay, fine.
• 26:51
  Well, still, gotcha.
• 26:52
  But the UK government is, they themselves are crying about what's going on, but they have not done anything all these years to get ahead of the situation that everyone saw was going to happen eventually.
• 27:08
  So it's just very interesting to see how Trump's reactions have such an impact on the relations and responses in the Middle East as well as Europe.
• 27:20
  And so it's almost like, is Trump smart, not Trump himself, but is his administration smart enough to be able to do these things for an intentional response possibly?
• 27:31
  Or is it something that, I don't know, I'm trying to understand and maybe you could shed light from your perspective on why the Trump administration would deny an ally like Saudi Arabia any support.
• 27:43
  I
• 27:46
  in my opinion
• 27:48
  slash assessment would be
• 27:50
  I think they are currently
• 27:52
  a bit too tied up in the Strait of Hormuz
• 27:54
  I don't think they
• 27:56
  had basically
• 27:59
  the ammunition
• 27:59
  slash even the will
• 28:02
  to go and open
• 28:04
  another front that could
• 28:06
  then start targeting US
• 28:08
  assets and
• 28:09
  the deal they've made with the Houthis
• 28:12
  still allows cargo from every other country to pass through the Barbell-Mandeb Strait.
• 28:18
  If the US was to attack them and that was to end, that strait would be essentially shut.
• 28:24
  And that is like the lifeline between Asia and Europe.
• 28:30
  That would be huge.
• 28:31
  The US doesn't really care.
• 28:33
  But again, as you said, this is kind of all starting because of a war Trump started.
• 28:38
  And yeah, so there would be a lot of blame thrown in there.
• 28:42
  Yeah, that's kind of my read on it.
• 28:47
  Why China, like Saudi knows the game they're playing, right?
• 28:51
  Saudi, they very purposefully reached out to China.
• 28:55
  They know exactly what they're doing there.
• 28:57
  They know the messaging they're sending there.
• 28:59
  But also China has recently restarted buying diesel on the open market,
• 29:04
  which they had stopped doing post the closing of the Strait of Hormuz,
• 29:09
  which kind of helped keep the price down.
• 29:12
  It's unclear why they had restarted buying it, whether they started to run low on their stockpiles or whether they just wanted to spice the market up a bit.
• 29:23
  Possibly, yeah.
• 29:25
  But they used to buy something like 30% of all of the oil that came out of the Strait of Homoose.
• 29:33
  So they were a very big customer there that they're now not really getting.
• 29:37
  there's from what I've read
• 29:40
  I think a lot of Chinese ships still
• 29:42
  manage to pass through both of the blockades
• 29:44
  you know
• 29:46
  I don't think the US
• 29:48
  is all that willing to stop
• 29:50
  a Chinese flagged
• 29:52
  vessel or at least like
• 29:53
  fuel going to China because that
• 29:56
  would just start creating problems
• 29:58
  yeah so it makes sense that they want
• 30:02
  to keep the fuel lines open
• 30:04
  because they also need the fuel
• 30:06
  Especially the fuel going east because that's predominantly going to them.
• 30:11
  Whereas Saudi can still ship their fuel west to Europe and then out to America.
• 30:20
  Real quick, something.
• 30:22
  So when you brought up what was going on with the oil as far as China's concerned.
• 30:28
  Now, we don't have it up, but as far as Iran's oil, I think China was buying about actually 80% of their oil.
• 30:36
  Yeah, I mean all the oil through the straightforward moves.
• 30:38
  Yeah, the entire.
• 30:39
  Yeah, so they're buying Bahrain.
• 30:41
  No, no, this is where I'm going with this,
• 30:43
  is that it brought this up in my mind when you were speaking
• 30:47
  because there was the report of frozen assets
• 30:51
  where they were saying, oh, China has frozen Iran's assets.
• 30:54
  But they haven't really.
• 30:55
  It's just China, it says here that China holds an estimated
• 30:58
  20 billion to 50 billion belonging to Iran.
• 31:01
  The funds accumulated from unpaid oil sales
• 31:04
  because strict United States sanctions block standard financial transfers.
• 31:08
  And Iran has used some of these blocked funds only to buy Chinese machinery and goods, rather, whatever.
• 31:14
  But basically, this war, it seems that, this is where I'm going with it, Daniel.
• 31:20
  So what it seems like is Trump, what I see is Trump doesn't want to get,
• 31:26
  and I think you're correct in what you said, because you're right.
• 31:29
  If the US goes to help Saudi Arabia, it does further dilute the US capabilities.
• 31:36
  And they're so tied up, like you said, with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz right now.
• 31:41
  But I think Trump is also, he said it before, he doesn't really want to go all in and send troops.
• 31:47
  Because I think he's holding back because he doesn't want US troops to die.
• 31:50
  But there's only so much you can do from far.
• 31:52
  It's like you said before, it's like you're either all in on something like this or you're not.
• 31:56
  so it looks like he's trying to take another approach which is which is strangling them
• 32:03
  economically and so if china can't do business and can't get access and can't even give iran
• 32:09
  the funds after after they've you know have the ability to take the oil they can't give it to iran
• 32:14
  because because of all these sanctions that are going on and blocking funds from being transferred
• 32:19
  iran is withering away economically and so i see that's why that they directed the houthis to attack
• 32:26
  side of rape was like, well, if you're going to choke us, we're going to choke you, which is
• 32:30
  leading them to say, okay, US help us, US can't because they can't
• 32:34
  really spread themselves too thin. And now they're reaching to China, as you said, as
• 32:37
  a single like, hey, US, look, we're going to have to go to your rival here
• 32:42
  if you're not going to step in, which creates
• 32:46
  a really interesting situation. And it's really meant to direct pressure at the US
• 32:50
  to act in a way that Trump probably doesn't want
• 32:54
  to. But then
• 32:56
  that goes back to the relationships
• 32:58
  we have with Europe right now. I mean,
• 33:00
  if Trump did decide to go all in,
• 33:02
  is Europe really willing to back that
• 33:04
  play?
• 33:05
  I think it's unlikely. I think Europe
• 33:08
  wouldn't participate.
• 33:11
  No one's going to
• 33:12
  stop the US, but
• 33:14
  they're not going to get involved. There's no
• 33:16
  buy-in there.
• 33:18
  I don't think
• 33:20
  Trump could go all in, right? I think
• 33:22
  as much as he wants to,
• 33:24
  I don't think. I mean, your guy's midterms
• 33:26
  are in two months.
• 33:28
  He's definitely not doing it before that.
• 33:29
  Because if he did...
• 33:31
  But he already said he doesn't
• 33:33
  care.
• 33:35
  Because he's not...
• 33:37
  It's not for him, you know what I'm saying?
• 33:39
  Of course.
• 33:40
  There's caring, and then there's like...
• 33:45
  He would be impeached and removed from office
• 33:47
  within... Oh, of course.
• 33:49
  They'll attempt to do so anyway.
• 33:51
  Yeah, and then it would just become a massive
• 33:53
  It's a political issue and yeah, I had a point.
• 33:58
  Shit.
• 33:59
  Sorry.
• 34:00
  I don't know.
• 34:01
  I mind blanked.
• 34:03
  Damn it.
• 34:04
  You got too much going on up there.
• 34:07
  Yeah.
• 34:08
  Trump's theory to try and economically strangle Iran.
• 34:13
  I was talking to someone else about this and they had a really good point is Iran.
• 34:19
  Yes, the US can probably strangle the Iranian economy, right?
• 34:23
  But Iran's willing to die for this, especially the regime.
• 34:29
  The regime knows if they give up, that's it.
• 34:32
  And the coup, the end of the Iranian regime doesn't end with them going into retirement, right?
• 34:39
  It ends for them swinging from cranes in the center of Tehran.
• 34:43
  They know this.
• 34:45
  So they are willing to put their people through horrific conditions.
• 34:52
  They were just to the end, right?
• 34:54
  They don't care because to them it's live or die.
• 34:59
  So I think the whole trying to choke them out financially,
• 35:04
  just it's who's going to win, who's going to last longer.
• 35:08
  Can the world economy survive longer than the Iranian regime?
• 35:11
  I think the Iranian regime can because they're willing to endure so much more suffering than the world economy is.
• 35:21
  There's already talk about the US treasury bonds, 30-year yields up to 5%, the price of fuels at the most they ever thought it would get to.
• 35:31
  It's like all of these things we're now hitting that it's like, even within the US, no one ever thought we would get here.
• 35:39
  and Iran's, they're not looking like they're going to give up anytime soon.
• 35:45
  So how much more can everyone put up with to try and see if Iran will collapse?
• 35:52
  Because I don't think they will, just purely out of survival.
• 35:59
  Well, I think that's a very interesting perspective to consider.
• 36:03
  the
• 36:05
  the only thing I would say to that
• 36:07
  would be that
• 36:10
  yes because
• 36:13
  yes to a degree that we're
• 36:15
  facing a radical
• 36:18
  fundamentalist group of people
• 36:19
  who in the end
• 36:21
  enjoy their power and their money
• 36:23
  and the reason they're going to keep doing this is for power and money
• 36:26
  it's not so much about their belief system after a while
• 36:27
  that goes out the window and it's about them maintaining
• 36:29
  power they want to be in control
• 36:32
  So the question, though, if we look at it from the economic stranglehold perspective, though, if they can no longer pay their proxies to act on their behalf, at what point will that loyalty also wither away?
• 36:47
  And then this regime has to stand on their own.
• 36:50
  And once they're there, they no longer have the numbers or the ability to act outside of their borders.
• 36:57
  because if they do, then that leaves Iran itself proper.
• 37:02
  It leaves it vulnerable.
• 37:04
  So if they're going to have to do the work the proxies are doing
• 37:07
  because the proxies are no longer going to be loyal to them
• 37:10
  because it's really all about money.
• 37:11
  I mean, they don't really care
• 37:12
  because if it was just about the fundamentalist belief,
• 37:16
  then we would see ISIS involved and backing their play
• 37:18
  because they're also an extreme Islamist organization
• 37:20
  or Al-Qaeda or whatever,
• 37:21
  but none of those other organizations are involved.
• 37:23
  So I think it could be...
• 37:27
  Both things could be true.
• 37:28
  Let's put it that way.
• 37:29
  I think you're correct.
• 37:30
  But I also believe that if the money isn't flowing,
• 37:34
  their relationships, most of the relationships Iran has
• 37:36
  is really based on the funding and support
• 37:38
  that they can provide these other people.
• 37:40
  If that goes away, then organizations like the Houthis,
• 37:44
  I mean, they're going to still do what they do,
• 37:46
  but they're not doing it for Iran anymore.
• 37:48
  I don't think there's going to be too many other organizations
• 37:50
  that are going to come to Iran's aid.
• 37:53
  So then it's going to be interesting to see, well, now that we're facing these fundamentalists, do they have the numbers to outlast?
• 38:00
  And if they do have to disperse from their homeland or their mainland, they're also going to start leaving that vulnerable.
• 38:05
  And then that will lend to the ability for the people there to truly push back and really rise up against the IRGC, for example.
• 38:15
  I think they'll be too thin.
• 38:17
  So it could literally come down to what you said.
• 38:19
  Who's going to outlast who?
• 38:21
  right and it might actually come down to the world economy like can the world continue to
• 38:27
  suffer this economy for example if the world can i think iran's in trouble if they can't then we're
• 38:34
  screwed you know so i think you're right i think both of these things can be very true just depends
• 38:39
  on who's willing to outlast the other yeah i would say there was also probably waiting for the mid
• 38:46
  Like the Iranians are waiting to see what happens there.
• 38:51
  Possibly, yeah, possibly.
• 38:55
  I mean Trump not gonna do anything too crazy until after that So I think it just a bit of trying to apply as much pressure as they can until that point
• 39:07
  and then we'll see where the card's for.
• 39:10
  Yeah, I think the midterms may come into play, but here's the problem with the midterm thing.
• 39:15
  That's going to rely, if we're talking about US politics, that's going to rely on a bunch
• 39:20
  of people electing not just Democrats, but pretty much DSA candidates.
• 39:24
  And that's going to be interesting to see if they elect socialists to enter into Congress and upset the balance.
• 39:31
  Because as of now, there was 19 congressional candidates, which is crazy.
• 39:35
  That won the primaries.
• 39:35
  So if we go into the midterms, the only thing that's going to happen is either they lose control, the Republicans lose control, and Trump, as you said, could be impeached.
• 39:43
  But they've attempted that many times.
• 39:44
  He's never gone anywhere.
• 39:45
  So I'm not so much concerned with that because Trump himself has said that the midterms, regardless of what happens, he's still going to be present.
• 39:51
  He's right.
• 39:52
  He's there until 2028.
• 39:53
  It's going to matter.
• 39:54
  So, the other thing about the U.S. I've noticed is they're not too keen or quick to pull out of a conflict to save face.
• 40:02
  They stayed in Iraq a long time.
• 40:06
  We've been involved in the Middle East longer than we needed to in many instances.
• 40:10
  Afghanistan, you name it.
• 40:11
  We've always extended our welcome, unfortunately.
• 40:14
  And I don't know if the U.S. will pull out that quick because they don't want to look bad.
• 40:20
  Because if they do, they're going to have to admit defeat.
• 40:22
  And I mean, let's just be honest.
• 40:24
  When has the US ever admitted they've been defeated?
• 40:28
  I also don't, just to be clear, I don't think the US leaving is a good idea.
• 40:35
  Like, sadly.
• 40:38
  Yeah.
• 40:39
  Iran maintaining control of the Strait of Hormuz.
• 40:41
  Yeah, I was just addressing the waiting for the midterm situation.
• 40:46
  I think regardless, Trump's still going to do Trump things.
• 40:49
  I mean, he's still himself, right?
• 40:51
  Yeah, and the U.S. has never really admitted that, oh, we screwed up.
• 40:54
  We need to get out.
• 40:56
  They've always stayed long enough to try to make it look like it was, no, we made the decision and look what we did.
• 41:01
  So I don't think they're in the position or the U.S. is in the position to just go, yeah, this isn't working.
• 41:06
  We're out.
• 41:08
  Even if Trump is, if they do everything they can to block Trump after the midterms, as you're alluding to,
• 41:16
  the U.S. is still going to have to find a way to make this look like they're the ones who made
• 41:20
  the right decision, but they got to do it in a way
• 41:22
  to where this plays out in their favor.
• 41:24
  They can't just suddenly say,
• 41:26
  okay, we can control Congress and this is over.
• 41:29
  Everyone's getting out of there.
• 41:30
  That would be disastrous, not just for the US,
• 41:32
  but for the Middle East.
• 41:34
  Yeah, no, no, I totally agree.
• 41:36
  It's like one of, it's like,
• 41:37
  I mean, like most conflicts, right?
• 41:40
  It's not just finishing the conflict.
• 41:42
  It's how it finishes.
• 41:44
  Yeah, absolutely.
• 41:45
  Yeah, yeah, yeah, absolutely.
• 41:46
  We'll have a massive flow on effect.
• 41:49
  It's a mess, Daniel.
• 41:50
  It really is.
• 41:52
  There's no good answer.
• 41:54
  I mean, even from a strategical, if you're looking at it from a standpoint of strategy,
• 41:58
  it's just so much going on.
• 42:01
  There's so much nuance and intertwined relationships.
• 42:04
  And it's like, I don't know, man.
• 42:07
  I don't know what we're going to do about it.
• 42:09
  It's just very interesting to see how this is playing out in our time.
• 42:12
  It's one of those conflicts.
• 42:14
  It's like, it's not World War III, but it kind of is.
• 42:17
  You know?
• 42:18
  Yeah.
• 42:18
  It kind of is.
• 42:19
  It feels like we're sniffing at it at the moment.
• 42:22
  Yeah, yeah, exactly.
• 42:26
  So let's talk about this here.
• 42:32
  Oh, here it is.
• 42:33
  I want to share this with you because I kind of brought this up with you offline.
• 42:37
  So this was interesting to me as well.
• 42:39
  So the denial of Trump supporting Saudi Arabia, okay, which leads Saudi Arabia to go, hey, we're going to go to your rival China, right?
• 42:47
  To try to basically stir up the US to do something.
• 42:51
  But this just happened a couple of days ago.
• 42:54
  So on Friday, Parliament Speaker Newman, I can't pronounce the name, so I won't.
• 42:59
  But anyway, he said that MACA joint defense agreement signed by Turkey, Saudi Arabia,
• 43:04
  I'm sorry, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan could expand to include Iran as a broader pact for
• 43:12
  the Muslim world.
• 43:14
  So Turkish President Erdogan, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, and Prime Minister Shabazz Sharif signed the accord in August, similar to NATO's Article 5.
• 43:26
  An attack on one ally constitutes an attack on all.
• 43:30
  So originally they did this to defend themselves, kind of like a similar NATO agreement, so that if they attack one of the Gulf states, then we all stand together because of Iran.
• 43:42
  Because when this broke out, Iran was indiscriminately just firing at everybody and said, fine, if you're not going to step up on our behalf because we're all Muslim brothers or whatever it is that they claim, they're like, we're going to attack you too.
• 43:55
  And so that's what led to this agreement.
• 43:56
  But now they're saying, well, we might want to extend this to include Iran now for Muslim solidarity.
• 44:04
  Yeah.
• 44:04
  Thoughts?
• 44:05
  I think that's unlikely.
• 44:06
  I mean, at the end of the day, there's still the Sunni-Shia divide within Islam.
• 44:14
  There is, yes.
• 44:15
  I don't think Saudi Arabia being the biggest Sunni country and Iran being the biggest Shia country, I don't think that's likely.
• 44:25
  I think there's also now been talk that Turkey or Pakistan might send troops to support Saudi Arabia's fight against the Houthis.
• 44:37
  So, yeah.
• 44:39
  Yeah, you know, I see what you're saying.
• 44:43
  And I agree with you about that divide between Sunni and Shia.
• 44:46
  but would they find enough common ground
• 44:51
  to be able to stand in solidarity
• 44:54
  and defense against the world
• 44:56
  if it came down to it?
• 44:57
  Because the US is basically saying
• 45:00
  we're not going to be the ally you need.
• 45:03
  And Europe has largely been hesitant
• 45:05
  for many years as well.
• 45:06
  Although, as you said earlier,
• 45:08
  the UK has said,
• 45:09
  hey, we're going to go ahead and help Saudi.
• 45:12
  So even with those differences,
• 45:14
  is it still going to be enough
• 45:17
  you think when push comes to shove
• 45:19
  because of all that has been happening
• 45:21
  there how everyone's just losing money and power
• 45:23
  and they're losing
• 45:25
  their resources and ability to defend themselves
• 45:27
  do you think at some point they would
• 45:29
  try to include Iran or would that
• 45:31
  only happen if the regime
• 45:33
  was ever actually toppled
• 45:35
  I know
• 45:39
  that is a tough question
• 45:41
  yeah you know why because we're looking at
• 45:43
  look
• 45:44
  Okay, we're looking at a religion that has two different groups, highly divided.
• 45:49
  But if we look at Christianity, we've got many different sects and subdivisions of Christianity and Catholicism.
• 45:55
  Catholicism and Christianity aren't necessarily the same.
• 45:58
  They have slightly different beliefs, all built around Christ.
• 46:01
  But at the same time, if we're looking at Islam, it's all built around Allah and the Prophet Muhammad.
• 46:05
  Very similar.
• 46:06
  Now, there's some things like there's jihadism.
• 46:08
  There's that sixth pillar within the, I forget which side it is, but there's that sixth pillar that exists in the Islamic regime of Iran that doesn't exist, for example, in Saudi Arabia.
• 46:24
  But at the same time, if their fundamental beliefs are the same and they start to get to the point where like, well, we still align here and they finally see that, it could lead to a partnership.
• 46:36
  I think it could possibly lead to some loose agreement.
• 46:41
  It may never be like, hey, we're close friends and we're going to have a barbecue and drink beers, right?
• 46:45
  I understand that probably will never happen.
• 46:47
  But it may be enough for them to say we're close enough that we should band together and protect each other.
• 46:54
  Possibly.
• 46:56
  I mean, this did happen in Christianity, right?
• 46:58
  So back in the day, Protestants in the UK used to kill Catholics.
• 47:03
  I mean, they still fight in Northern Ireland.
• 47:05
  So, like, it is possible.
• 47:09
  I think there is like a maturing of the religion where you could just move past those differences and become, but I don't think it's anytime soon.
• 47:20
  Not very long.
• 47:22
  No, like the Islamic State, like, just as an example, they preferred to kill, I think, Shia.
• 47:30
  I can't remember which one they were either.
• 47:31
  They preferred to kill Shia Muslims than anybody else.
• 47:34
  That was the goal, was to rid the world of the other side of Islam because they see them as heretics.
• 47:42
  So I don't think they're that close to seeing eye to eye.
• 47:48
  As you said, there could be a relationship formed where it's purely on a pragmatic basis of they need each other because the world's falling apart so rapidly.
• 47:59
  But I don't think that would happen under the current regime.
• 48:03
  I don't think they would trust each other enough to get that close, especially Saudi.
• 48:11
  Iran's not going to trust Saudi and Saudi's not going to trust Iran.
• 48:14
  Saudi still has their links to the US.
• 48:16
  Iran recently attacked them.
• 48:20
  Oh, no, no.
• 48:21
  I completely see that.
• 48:23
  But I'm talking about the possibility of Saudi eventually just closing the relationship off with the US, for example.
• 48:31
  If this continues the way it's going and the U.S. never steps in to offer Saudi any support because the U.S. would be spread thin, could Saudi finally say, well, I think this has hit the end of the road here for us?
• 48:44
  I think China would be the country that would come in.
• 48:47
  Yeah.
• 48:48
  Not physically because they're not too keen to get outside of their own borders in a big way.
• 48:55
  But I think China would be the bridging relationship there.
• 48:59
  So yeah, there could be,
• 49:00
  but I think it would be more done
• 49:01
  through a relationship with China.
• 49:04
  Got it.
• 49:05
  It's more like through a larger power
• 49:07
  that would be a mediator.
• 49:08
  Yeah, because it would be more like
• 49:10
  Saudi goes to China being like,
• 49:12
  Right.
• 49:13
  That makes sense.
• 49:13
  We'll give you this,
• 49:15
  or we'll give you a better price on oil
• 49:16
  if you convince Iran to stop attacking us.
• 49:20
  And then they go to Iran and be like,
• 49:21
  all right.
• 49:22
  Yeah, no, that actually makes a lot of sense
• 49:24
  from that perspective for sure.
• 49:26
  So it still raises the question though,
• 49:28
  that why would they announce
• 49:30
  that they would possibly expand
• 49:32
  that relationship to include Iran, though?
• 49:34
  What's the play there, you think?
• 49:36
  I don't really know. It did seem a bit weird.
• 49:38
  Yeah, right?
• 49:39
  It kind of died a death pretty quickly, though.
• 49:42
  I don't think...
• 49:44
  That's true. It's just
• 49:46
  it was very interesting to make that announcement
• 49:48
  when your coalition was
• 49:50
  specifically put together to protect yourself
• 49:51
  from Iran
• 49:53
  and their proxies.
• 49:56
  Well, like, Turkey has a...
• 49:58
  interesting relationship with Iran.
• 50:01
  They share a border.
• 50:03
  And then Pakistan shares a border with them.
• 50:05
  And they have a relationship to a degree.
• 50:09
  So outside of Saudi, I think the other two partners there,
• 50:14
  without Saudi Arabia's involvement, could work something out.
• 50:20
  You know, Pakistan's an interesting country to speak of and all this.
• 50:27
  because I'm not quite sure where they sit with all this.
• 50:31
  I don't know.
• 50:32
  Maybe you could shed some light on it
• 50:33
  because they've been saying a few things recently
• 50:34
  and they are a nuclear power.
• 50:38
  And where do you think Pakistan would eventually fit into this conflict?
• 50:43
  Because it seems like they're slowly edging closer to it for whatever reason.
• 50:47
  What do you think is going to happen there?
• 50:49
  I think Pakistan's number one geopolitical priority is
• 50:55
  is and will almost always be India.
• 51:01
  They'll just be on the other side of the coin
• 51:03
  to whatever India's on, basically.
• 51:06
  Okay.
• 51:07
  I don't think either country can really stray
• 51:11
  too far away from a position
• 51:13
  that is the opposite to the other.
• 51:17
  Yeah.
• 51:19
  There's a lot of analysts that always point at
• 51:21
  India and Pakistan being the most likely place
• 51:25
  for a nuclear war
• 51:26
  because
• 51:26
  partly because of the significant
• 51:29
  overmatch that India has
• 51:30
  numerically against Pakistan
• 51:32
  and Pakistan's just open
• 51:34
  acknowledgement that
• 51:36
  they will nuke India
• 51:37
  off the bat.
• 51:40
  So about,
• 51:40
  I think it was a year or two,
• 51:42
  I think it was last year.
• 51:45
  I forgot what happened.
• 51:47
  Pakistan did make a statement
• 51:48
  about them possibly using
• 51:51
  nuclear weapons if they had to
• 51:53
  in defense of Iran.
• 51:55
  Okay.
• 51:56
  Um, I don't know if you recall that I did an episode on a while back, but they did make that statement. It was in the, it was in the news and all of a sudden it kind of
• 52:02
  got pulled away and everyone said, oh no, that was a false
• 52:04
  statement, but it was said and I think it was just
• 52:06
  pulled to cover it up.
• 52:08
  That's why I asked the questions.
• 52:11
  Is it more to the
• 52:12
  point that Pakistan is just
• 52:14
  posturing and trying to be recognized as
• 52:16
  a major power in the area rather than
• 52:17
  them actually willing to back Iran?
• 52:22
  Possibly.
• 52:23
  I think
• 52:24
  Pakistan has a lot of internal issues that
• 52:27
  creates a pretty
• 52:30
  chaotic
• 52:31
  situation for them where they're
• 52:33
  I think Imran Khan
• 52:36
  he was the leader
• 52:38
  got removed
• 52:40
  put in prison they still have a lot
• 52:42
  of like internal tensions over it
• 52:44
  so I think a lot like
• 52:45
  it's not uncommon that statements will come out
• 52:48
  of the country where it's like
• 52:50
  maybe one part of the country or like
• 52:52
  the military leadership decided
• 52:53
  we're going to say this and then the government
• 52:56
  like the fuck are you talking about
• 52:58
  that could have been the case
• 53:00
  Yeah, that definitely could have been the case.
• 53:02
  So Pakistan really, for as much as might be said or coming out of the country,
• 53:06
  is just at this point a non-issue with the Iran conflict.
• 53:09
  It sounds like they're just chirping for the most part.
• 53:11
  Yeah, I'd say so.
• 53:13
  And in reality, if they were to fire a nuclear weapon at anyone,
• 53:18
  India would fire a nuclear weapon at them just on principle at this point.
• 53:24
  There's been Indian military commanders who have made public statements
• 53:29
  that basically we should,
• 53:31
  I don't know if this translates
• 53:33
  as well to American English,
• 53:35
  but like eat a missile,
• 53:37
  like just take a nuclear weapon
• 53:39
  to destroy India.
• 53:40
  Yeah, understood.
• 53:41
  They just hate each other
• 53:44
  to another level.
• 53:46
  Yeah, so India is willing
• 53:47
  to take that damage and casualty
• 53:50
  to be able to get into a conflict
• 53:52
  with them legitimately
• 53:53
  to take them out.
• 53:54
  Yeah, basically.
• 53:56
  There's one general
• 53:57
  just chatting shit
• 53:59
  for the most part.
• 54:00
  But he said,
• 54:01
  let's fire nuclear weapons
• 54:02
  at them.
• 54:03
  They'll fire one back.
• 54:04
  We'll take it.
• 54:05
  We've got enough people.
• 54:07
  Fuck it.
• 54:07
  That's crazy.
• 54:07
  We can get rid of them
• 54:08
  once and for all.
• 54:09
  That's a crazy outlook, man.
• 54:11
  And with that being said,
• 54:14
  isn't Pakistan also
• 54:15
  fighting people
• 54:18
  in Afghanistan right now too?
• 54:20
  Yeah, yeah.
• 54:20
  So they have a massive issue
• 54:22
  with,
• 54:23
  it's basically the Taliban,
• 54:25
  but Taliban in Pakistan.
• 54:27
  Yeah, so they're supported
• 54:28
  by the Taliban in Afghanistan
• 54:29
  because they're the same tribe or ethnic group.
• 54:33
  Okay.
• 54:34
  So Pakistan have started attacking the Taliban in Kabul
• 54:39
  and they've done airstrikes in Kabul.
• 54:41
  So then the Taliban used, crazily,
• 54:45
  decided to use suicide bombers against Pakistan.
• 54:50
  Yeah, so that kind of flares up every now and again.
• 54:52
  Then they get a deal and it falls over in a couple of months.
• 54:56
  I think
• 54:59
  a lot of these issues I think
• 55:01
  are just
• 55:02
  before the age of social media
• 55:05
  would just be news that never really
• 55:07
  made the front page
• 55:08
  conflicts in a lot
• 55:11
  of these regions have been going on
• 55:13
  for thousands of years
• 55:14
  and will continue to go on
• 55:17
  for a thousand years because
• 55:18
  it's just the way things are
• 55:21
  and humans seem to love fighting
• 55:23
  each other
• 55:24
  I get it
• 55:26
  So basically to just squash this whole thing with Pakistan is no matter what we're seeing out there, what might be said or what we're hearing, they're really not in a position to even engage with this conflict between the US and Iran.
• 55:41
  No, no, I don't believe so.
• 55:43
  And if they were, they would open themselves up strategically to retaliatory strikes from India.
• 55:50
  Yeah.
• 55:51
  And just looking for an excuse, basically.
• 55:54
  Gotcha.
• 55:55
  Yeah.
• 55:55
  Huh.
• 55:56
  All right. So let's do this. This is something I haven't been paying attention to, and I know you have.
• 56:02
  So before we close this out, Daniel, can you please update us on what's going on with the Russia-Ukraine war and where that's headed?
• 56:10
  Because Ukraine's been attacking their oil refineries. There's gas shortages in Russia.
• 56:16
  I've made the comment sarcastically. I don't even know if that's true.
• 56:19
  I was like, at some point I started to ask, well, are the attacks on the refineries in Russia and what's going on in Iran tied somehow?
• 56:26
  Is it an attempt to control the oil all over the world?
• 56:29
  I don't know.
• 56:30
  That's what Trump said as well.
• 56:33
  Trump tried to blame the entire diesel price on Ukraine.
• 56:37
  And Ukraine were like, what the fuck?
• 56:39
  Crazy, right?
• 56:40
  Yeah.
• 56:41
  Wow.
• 56:41
  I mean, there is parts of, like all good Trump statements, there's a nugget of truth in there, right?
• 56:48
  Right, right.
• 56:49
  And then when Ukraine stepped in not long ago and helping the U.S. with intelligence with the conflict between Iran and the U.S., that was an interesting play by Zelensky.
• 57:02
  It's almost like trying to entice the U.S. to go, hey, we're helping you.
• 57:06
  Can you please give us a bit more?
• 57:08
  But the U.S., like as we were discussing earlier, even with the Iran conflict, we're not.
• 57:12
  U.S. is in a position to keep spreading themselves out right now.
• 57:14
  so um where does where does this conflict between russia and ukraine sit amidst all these other
• 57:20
  conflicts right now but what's what's going to happen here because i i've been reading and you
• 57:27
  probably you'll give me a better um assessment than what i probably could do on my own here for
• 57:32
  sure so i haven't been paying attention to it but i've been reading that the uk and france have
• 57:35
  slowly been coming together to step up and apply more pressure to russia or at least getting ready
• 57:40
  to. And I know Poland's just been itching to attack Russia at any moment anyway. But where is it at
• 57:49
  right now? What is going to be the consequences for Europe, for Russia, Ukraine? Where does this
• 57:55
  conflict fit in relation to everything else that's going on? I think where it is right now is basically
• 58:01
  probably where it was the last time someone told you where it was. Not much has changed.
• 58:08
  There are some small tactical changes on the ground.
• 58:12
  I didn't look into it, but apparently there was a reasonably large offensive by Ukraine and Lyman.
• 58:21
  But a lot of the ground stuff isn't really hugely important if you look at it from the strategic level.
• 58:29
  all.
• 58:30
  The big thing is the attacks on the fuel, but also on wild berries and ozone, which is
• 58:38
  like two Amazon equivalents within Russia.
• 58:41
  Yeah, just trying to like-
• 58:42
  The world distribution centers?
• 58:43
  Yeah.
• 58:44
  While they also look awesome, I think, from my perspective, they had a significant effect
• 58:53
  on bringing the war home for everyday Russians.
• 58:56
  Right, right, right.
• 58:57
  It's like imagine if your Amazon warehouse outside of your city was suddenly on fire
• 59:01
  and that's the first you've ever seen of this conflict.
• 59:05
  It's like, oh, yeah, we are actually at a war with someone.
• 59:08
  It really brings it home to make it real for everyday Russians.
• 59:14
  Whether that changes the actual situation probably not in a huge way It definitely hurts the economy a bit makes life a bit harder it makes distributing drone parts a bit more difficult and stop soldiers being able to buy their own equipment which puts more pressure on
• 59:31
  the Russian military logistics,
• 59:34
  which was already shit.
• 59:35
  So there's a lot of factors there.
• 59:37
  I think their biggest
• 59:38
  Ukraine's
• 59:41
  path to victory, is kind of
• 59:43
  how I put it, is to continue
• 59:45
  to hit oil infrastructure
• 59:47
  just all the time.
• 59:49
  Just never let it get fixed.
• 59:51
  The Russian economy is already absolutely running hot.
• 59:56
  Hotter than hot.
• 59:57
  It's been running hot for four years at this point.
• 1:00:00
  But it's definitely starting to get tough for Russia to keep this war going.
• 1:00:07
  How it ends is kind of similar to what I said about the Strait of Hormuz.
• 1:00:14
  It's not if it ends, it's how it ends.
• 1:00:16
  and that's a pretty scary
• 1:00:18
  thought I think
• 1:00:21
  because
• 1:00:22
  I don't see Putin
• 1:00:24
  just walking away
• 1:00:26
  I don't see him just
• 1:00:28
  giving
• 1:00:28
  somehow he could just create
• 1:00:32
  the idea that they won
• 1:00:34
  and go home but I don't think
• 1:00:36
  that's likely at this point
• 1:00:38
  so yeah
• 1:00:41
  currently it just seems like a stalemate
• 1:00:44
  we're just grinding
• 1:00:46
  forward. How much
• 1:00:48
  concern is there for the UK
• 1:00:50
  and France though right
• 1:00:52
  now? Because
• 1:00:53
  they're the
• 1:00:56
  two countries that have been the most vocal about this
• 1:00:58
  whole thing, aside from Poland, but it seems
• 1:01:00
  like they've been the most vocal about
• 1:01:02
  this conflict from the outset.
• 1:01:05
  And there was even
• 1:01:06
  talks of
• 1:01:07
  them being on
• 1:01:09
  a higher level of alert status
• 1:01:12
  due to Russia
• 1:01:13
  or what Putin said in the past.
• 1:01:16
  about possibly directing his attention towards European allies, for example, or NATO members.
• 1:01:25
  Do you think the UK and France are still at that heightened level of concern?
• 1:01:30
  Or has that kind of lowered after this war has been dragged out so long
• 1:01:35
  and Ukraine has brought the war to them, as you said,
• 1:01:39
  and they're destroying and intentionally attacking their infrastructure?
• 1:01:42
  because I believe they're also targeting power infrastructure as well.
• 1:01:47
  So they're literally trying to take their legs out from under them.
• 1:01:50
  Ukraine's trying to take the legs out from under Russia at this point,
• 1:01:53
  which is interesting for a smaller country,
• 1:01:55
  comparatively to what Russia can possibly do.
• 1:01:59
  So do you think the UK and France, for example,
• 1:02:01
  do you think their level or height and level of alertness
• 1:02:07
  has kind of died down a bit when it comes to this?
• 1:02:10
  I think so.
• 1:02:11
  I don't think the UK and France legitimately believe that Russia would attack them at this point.
• 1:02:18
  Okay.
• 1:02:19
  Because doing so would be tantamount to suicide, right?
• 1:02:22
  As you said, Poland is chomping at the bit to get involved.
• 1:02:27
  So firing a missile directly into just NATO, even if the US was to like sit on the fence.
• 1:02:37
  I mean, it's getting pretty close to nuclear war at that point,
• 1:02:40
  but it would be like dragging Europe in would be crazy at this point.
• 1:02:46
  The Russian military is not even handling Ukraine that well.
• 1:02:50
  They're not going to handle like even the NATO forces
• 1:02:54
  that are currently based on their Western flank.
• 1:02:57
  How quickly could they get to Moscow is kind of the thing.
• 1:03:01
  Like they're just sitting there waiting to go.
• 1:03:03
  So Russia almost certainly doesn't have the ability to stop them advancing.
• 1:03:10
  Yeah, so I don't think that's…
• 1:03:12
  I think there's a little bit of fear about…
• 1:03:15
  There's been this story about Russia testing NATO's resolve around Article 5,
• 1:03:21
  and I think Lithuania has come out as the place they think it might happen.
• 1:03:26
  and then Poon made a speech yesterday where he said he knows that the Russian-speaking people
• 1:03:34
  of the Baltic states are being mistreated, which is essentially the same kind of logic he gave in Ukraine.
• 1:03:42
  Right.
• 1:03:42
  And in the Russian constitution, it gives Russia the ability to protect Russian-speaking peoples
• 1:03:50
  wherever they are in the world.
• 1:03:52
  it's just a catch-all to allow him to conduct military action.
• 1:03:59
  So there's a bit of worry there.
• 1:04:01
  And I think that was the top kind of assessment
• 1:04:07
  of what the CIA director was going to Moscow a few weeks ago
• 1:04:12
  to talk about was, hey, think, hey, don't do that
• 1:04:16
  because that's fucking mental.
• 1:04:18
  so yeah and then there's also like
• 1:04:22
  Kalinograd sits next to Lithuania
• 1:04:24
  but also next to Poland
• 1:04:26
  it's like that tiny little
• 1:04:28
  bit of Russia
• 1:04:30
  that sits away from the rest
• 1:04:32
  of Russia
• 1:04:32
  yeah
• 1:04:36
  so I don't see much
• 1:04:38
  changing but tensions are high
• 1:04:40
  and what you said about
• 1:04:42
  Putin or Russia actually even
• 1:04:46
  like even if they wanted to test
• 1:04:48
  NATO's resolve. Let's say
• 1:04:50
  that he was crazy enough to do that.
• 1:04:53
  The major allies
• 1:04:54
  he would have that can actually offer any
• 1:04:56
  real support, as in China, couldn't get
• 1:04:58
  anything to them fast enough to be effective.
• 1:05:01
  And it seems like even China, for all
• 1:05:02
  their posturing, never doesn't, like you said, they don't
• 1:05:04
  really want to get engaged in anything. I don't even
• 1:05:06
  know how ready their military
• 1:05:08
  actually is or how effective it
• 1:05:10
  actually is. I think most of it's window
• 1:05:12
  dressing. They have technology, but I don't know
• 1:05:14
  how readily
• 1:05:16
  able their troops really are
• 1:05:18
  and able to fight.
• 1:05:21
  I don't know.
• 1:05:23
  And then North Korea
• 1:05:24
  has been the other country
• 1:05:26
  that has been directly sending troops
• 1:05:28
  and whatever to support Russia.
• 1:05:30
  Iran can't do anything.
• 1:05:33
  And so I think
• 1:05:34
  maybe you're correct.
• 1:05:36
  They would just be on an island at that point
• 1:05:38
  trying to fight the world because
• 1:05:40
  their allies would not be able to rush to their rescue
• 1:05:42
  in an effective manner.
• 1:05:45
  You also have the
• 1:05:46
  China
• 1:05:48
  would probably want to take back
• 1:05:50
  some lost territories that they lost to Russia
• 1:05:53
  in the Sino-Russian wars.
• 1:05:56
  So China would probably just be like,
• 1:05:57
  well, if you're gone,
• 1:05:58
  we're just going to use our military.
• 1:06:01
  Russia, hypothetical situation,
• 1:06:04
  Russia attacks Lithuania,
• 1:06:06
  Article 5 is triggered,
• 1:06:08
  NATO troops move into Russia
• 1:06:10
  to seize Moscow and remove the regime.
• 1:06:15
  China can't, as you said,
• 1:06:16
  can't mount troops to get them there to defend.
• 1:06:20
  So why not just take back all the,
• 1:06:22
  like just go north,
• 1:06:24
  take the rest of Eastern Russia,
• 1:06:26
  claim it as your own,
• 1:06:28
  extend your own borders.
• 1:06:30
  Yeah, I can see that.
• 1:06:31
  Claim that they were always part of China.
• 1:06:33
  Yeah, actually,
• 1:06:34
  that's an interesting point you brought up
• 1:06:36
  because the relationship between Russia and China is,
• 1:06:39
  I mean, it's just a matter of convenience.
• 1:06:41
  It like you know both countries were built on communist principles I think it was the only thing that ever really held them together That and it them against the West or the big bad USA right So once Russia ability to be effective is gone like you said yeah good point
• 1:06:57
  There's nothing stopping China from taking their territories back and maybe even pushing
• 1:07:02
  further and taking more Russian territory itself.
• 1:07:04
  Maybe.
• 1:07:05
  Yeah.
• 1:07:05
  And there's a lot of like, I don't know, Russia would probably just fall apart at that point.
• 1:07:10
  Very interesting.
• 1:07:12
  Yeah.
• 1:07:12
  Yeah.
• 1:07:13
  Finland, there's a lot of countries that would be pretty keen to get some territory back from Russia.
• 1:07:18
  Oh, absolutely.
• 1:07:20
  Yeah, they would.
• 1:07:22
  Picking over the carcass.
• 1:07:23
  But then they also have nuclear weapons.
• 1:07:25
  So that's the other.
• 1:07:27
  Yeah, that's what's stopping them just biffing a nuclear weapon on their way out the door.
• 1:07:32
  I mean, yeah, Russia in a death rattle would not be a good situation for the surrounding.
• 1:07:37
  Yeah, and that's what I mean about how the war in Ukrainians is what worries me.
• 1:07:41
  Right, right.
• 1:07:42
  So to that, Daniel, Ukraine's brought the war to the doorstep to Russia, to the people.
• 1:07:50
  Effectively, like you said, they can literally see what's happening now, attacking their infrastructure, oil, energy.
• 1:07:59
  They're equivalent to Amazon, whatever, which is crazy.
• 1:08:02
  But then you have Trump telling Ukraine to back off.
• 1:08:08
  I think that was part of him trying to deflect the price of diesel.
• 1:08:15
  I think he just wanted a soundbite of, because what he said was something around of like,
• 1:08:22
  we need Ukraine to stop bombing Russian oil refineries because it's driving up the price
• 1:08:27
  of diesel.
• 1:08:28
  so that's a lovely soundbite where it's like to his and this is probably only going out to like
• 1:08:34
  his dedicated support base is ukraine is driving up the price of diesel so it's their fault i can
• 1:08:41
  blame them and it doesn't matter you can forget about iran at that point yeah yeah that would be
• 1:08:50
  my i get that but i the thing i've seen is with trump is like where does i'm not sure where he's
• 1:08:58
  stance because he's been in the middle on one hand applauding Ukraine on the other hand telling
• 1:09:03
  them to stop biting the heels of Russia it's like he wants to be Putin's friend but won't do anything
• 1:09:10
  to really tell Putin to back off or do anything that would that would cause him to back down
• 1:09:16
  and then at the same time he's lending support to Ukraine whenever it's convenient so I'm not
• 1:09:22
  really sure where he's at or what the actual play is by the administration unless you could
• 1:09:25
  show some light on that. I don't think
• 1:09:27
  they know that most
• 1:09:29
  of the time. It does seem like
• 1:09:31
  I mean, Ukraine's made it pretty clear
• 1:09:33
  that they're no longer reliant on US
• 1:09:35
  support. They did, yes.
• 1:09:37
  The US has lost their ability
• 1:09:39
  to apply significant pressure.
• 1:09:42
  I mean, they tried, right? And then
• 1:09:43
  Ukraine just went, all right, sweet.
• 1:09:45
  We'll just make our own missiles.
• 1:09:48
  And then there's also like
• 1:09:49
  I mean, this isn't really related to your
• 1:09:51
  question, sorry, but it was something I thought about earlier.
• 1:09:53
  It's like the Patriot missiles
• 1:09:55
  they discussed giving Ukraine a license to make them.
• 1:10:00
  And then I think it was, I don't know if it was Lockheed Martin
• 1:10:02
  or whoever makes them, turned around and said,
• 1:10:06
  no, no, no, we're not doing that
• 1:10:07
  because Ukraine will probably make them way cheaper.
• 1:10:10
  And then our entire business model is falling apart.
• 1:10:14
  And it's like, okay, cool,
• 1:10:15
  but that's such a fucking stupid situation to be in now
• 1:10:19
  because it's not just Ukraine that needs Patriot missiles anymore.
• 1:10:23
  It's all of the Middle East.
• 1:10:24
  and if you're not willing to make them fast enough
• 1:10:27
  at a decent price.
• 1:10:31
  I mean, this is the military-industrial complex
• 1:10:34
  we've got ourselves into
• 1:10:35
  of allowing these companies to say that.
• 1:10:41
  These weapons are vital to defend
• 1:10:44
  Western interests globally
• 1:10:45
  and because you don't want them to be too cheap,
• 1:10:50
  you won't let the other country make them.
• 1:10:53
  I don't know.
• 1:10:54
  So beyond politics, right?
• 1:10:57
  Yeah.
• 1:10:58
  Definitely beyond politics, where the manufacturers themselves can determine how prolonged the war is, or they could even end it by cutting off the supply to another nation, rendering them basically taking their ability to throw themselves away.
• 1:11:13
  So now they're going to have to rely on other resources or black markets, etc., to try to get these things, if that's even possible.
• 1:11:23
  Yeah, I mean, for air defense, it's not really.
• 1:11:26
  So then you have to start trying to make your own, which is what we've seen in Ukraine.
• 1:11:30
  But then you do, it does drive innovation.
• 1:11:33
  It does create, like, Ukraine's counter-US systems are now world-leading.
• 1:11:38
  They've now taken those to the Middle East to help them.
• 1:11:40
  So, like, there are flow-on effects here that are not good for, well, not good for the profit margins of Lockheed Martin.
• 1:11:49
  Yeah, well, you know what?
• 1:11:50
  maybe things will change because I just saw a news report earlier how there was concerns about
• 1:11:57
  F-35 parts and whatever. When I said for the listeners, I was late to this recording. I'm
• 1:12:05
  currently editing a video about that. Are you? Yeah. I'm halfway through editing it. Okay.
• 1:12:11
  So it's almost done.
• 1:12:13
  The crux was, it turns out, F-35 parts are all pulled in a global stockpile, right?
• 1:12:21
  Okay.
• 1:12:22
  And to get them around the world, you just use UPS.
• 1:12:26
  Just shipped like any other package.
• 1:12:28
  And two parts, which was a bomb bay door and I think a cover of something,
• 1:12:37
  was rerouted on their way back to the US.
• 1:12:40
  They were deemed to be defective or like broken.
• 1:12:45
  They were flown to South Korea.
• 1:12:48
  And then as far as nobody can understand,
• 1:12:50
  they were then rerouted to Hong Kong
• 1:12:52
  where they were seized by Chinese customs
• 1:12:54
  who still have them.
• 1:12:56
  They were seized in June.
• 1:13:00
  They haven't given them back.
• 1:13:02
  Really?
• 1:13:03
  Yeah.
• 1:13:04
  The kind of counter argument is
• 1:13:06
  there's not really huge amounts.
• 1:13:10
  they can get from them.
• 1:13:12
  There is information around the counter radar film that is put on them, because especially
• 1:13:19
  the Bombay door sits on the outside of the aircraft, so it has the counter radar stuff.
• 1:13:26
  There was one kind of worry around that specific part is known to have an issue, whether the
• 1:13:33
  film breaks near one of the corners.
• 1:13:36
  so they're worried that China might be able to
• 1:13:39
  identify this issue with this
• 1:13:41
  one part and use that to
• 1:13:42
  develop radar
• 1:13:45
  that can target that finite
• 1:13:47
  point. Interesting.
• 1:13:50
  But yeah,
• 1:13:51
  it's gone.
• 1:13:53
  My kind of assessment
• 1:13:55
  is this is probably just going to die
• 1:13:57
  out in the news
• 1:13:58
  very quickly.
• 1:14:00
  China will probably never give it back.
• 1:14:03
  The US will go fuck Australia claiming that they not really that sensitive so it doesn really matter Oh so they were sent from Australia Right Because there a big repair hub for all of Asia
• 1:14:16
  So F-35s for Singapore, Japan, South Korea are all repaired in Australia,
• 1:14:23
  as well as aircraft carriers can send their fighter jets there
• 1:14:26
  when they're in the Paycom region.
• 1:14:29
  Yeah, so that's why the part was coming from Australia.
• 1:14:33
  Yeah.
• 1:14:33
  Do you think that countries may start to look and looking for alternative sources for weapons to defend themselves and whatnot?
• 1:14:43
  Like we're just talking about the Ukraine situation.
• 1:14:45
  Could they consider buying from China, for example?
• 1:14:49
  No.
• 1:14:49
  I don't think any Western country would fancy buying critical weapon systems.
• 1:14:56
  Dumb weapon systems such as like firearms, maybe.
• 1:15:00
  But then again, why would Europe decide to buy Chinese?
• 1:15:07
  They are building their own infrastructure.
• 1:15:12
  I think Europe is more likely to start buying only European stuff.
• 1:15:17
  Countries like South America, maybe.
• 1:15:20
  Okay.
• 1:15:21
  But yeah, anything tech is...
• 1:15:25
  I get that.
• 1:15:26
  I get why and the reasons.
• 1:15:28
  And I believe that these countries should be self-sufficient, be able to produce their own munitions and technologies because they are capable.
• 1:15:35
  But I guess in a situation where your munitions and your defense capabilities are just depleting to a level you can't replace them quick enough, you think they still wouldn't take that option?
• 1:15:49
  Not from China.
• 1:15:50
  Okay.
• 1:15:51
  I think the risks are too high.
• 1:15:53
  This already talks about even close allies not being too comfortable with the amount of control the US has over highly technical weapon systems where they can kill switch them.
• 1:16:06
  If you're already worried about that for your closest allies, your biggest adversary is not really the person.
• 1:16:13
  That's true.
• 1:16:15
  But okay, so what if Japan steps up though?
• 1:16:18
  Because aren't they starting to manufacture or get back into manufacturing?
• 1:16:21
  I mean, yeah, yeah.
• 1:16:25
  I think there's going to be a big, like my overarching theory as we're going,
• 1:16:32
  it's not my theory to be completely fair, it's the theory of a lot of smarter people,
• 1:16:36
  but we're going to go back to like cheaper, dumber, not dumber in the sense of like stupid,
• 1:16:42
  but like lower tech, easier to replace, easier to manufacture, faster at a more higher volumes.
• 1:16:50
  I think drone warfare has shown
• 1:16:52
  the advantages of
• 1:16:54
  lower tech
• 1:16:56
  not lower tech, sorry, I keep saying that
• 1:16:58
  like lower price
• 1:16:59
  much more mass producible
• 1:17:01
  weapon systems and how they fare
• 1:17:04
  against even say the F-35
• 1:17:06
  right
• 1:17:06
  I think these high end
• 1:17:09
  really expensive
• 1:17:11
  top of the line
• 1:17:14
  weapon systems may have seen
• 1:17:16
  their heyday and that
• 1:17:18
  we're now going back to
• 1:17:20
  pretty rough and ready solutions.
• 1:17:22
  Yeah, I think I agree with you
• 1:17:23
  because if anything,
• 1:17:24
  between these two conflicts,
• 1:17:26
  being Iran and Ukraine,
• 1:17:27
  we've seen the benefit of having
• 1:17:29
  the ability to produce cheaply enough...
• 1:17:33
  Fuck loads of drones.
• 1:17:34
  Exactly.
• 1:17:35
  And for all the technology
• 1:17:37
  the US or anybody has,
• 1:17:38
  it doesn't matter how advanced it is,
• 1:17:40
  you can't defend against
• 1:17:41
  two million drones flying in
• 1:17:43
  ready to...
• 1:17:44
  Yeah.
• 1:17:44
  ...in a kamikaze-style method
• 1:17:46
  to just destroy you.
• 1:17:48
  I mean, you can only defend
• 1:17:49
  against so much before they start getting through.
• 1:17:52
  And now we saw
• 1:17:53
  in Russia where they're using that Shahed style drone
• 1:17:55
  but a jet-powered version?
• 1:17:57
  Right?
• 1:17:58
  Yeah.
• 1:18:00
  Great point. I think you're right.
• 1:18:03
  It may get to the point where people are
• 1:18:05
  going to start losing the
• 1:18:07
  sense of value in these
• 1:18:09
  advanced technologies because
• 1:18:10
  at some point it's just about
• 1:18:12
  just sheer numbers
• 1:18:15
  of what you have.
• 1:18:16
  and replace them quickly, right?
• 1:18:20
  The cost of one F-35
• 1:18:22
  versus the cost of a million Shahid drones.
• 1:18:25
  Yeah, yeah.
• 1:18:27
  Crazy.
• 1:18:27
  I know what I'd pick.
• 1:18:28
  Yeah, absolutely.
• 1:18:30
  I mean, it'd be great to have a few F-35s,
• 1:18:33
  but I mean, a bunch of Shahid drones,
• 1:18:34
  I don't know.
• 1:18:35
  I reckon we can get the job done.
• 1:18:37
  I could do it.
• 1:18:38
  And then Ukraine's been very effective
• 1:18:40
  at making their own versions of drones.
• 1:18:42
  I mean, I think they pretty much have been pioneering
• 1:18:44
  the low-cost drone warfare.
• 1:18:46
  Yeah, and even up to ballistic missiles now, they have their own Ukraine-made ballistic
• 1:18:52
  missiles that are highly accurate, fly low, get past air defenses.
• 1:18:58
  Crazy world general.
• 1:19:00
  Also, Andrew, a US company, I'm sure you've heard of them.
• 1:19:05
  They're big on this as well.
• 1:19:08
  Palmer Lucky, the founder of the company, he's said in numerous interviews and podcasts
• 1:19:14
  that the US needs to go back to being able to manufacture their weaponry
• 1:19:19
  in a normal factory,
• 1:19:21
  to not need highly made precision equipment
• 1:19:25
  that costs astronomical amounts of money.
• 1:19:28
  We need to go back to what we're good at, basically.
• 1:19:32
  Yeah.
• 1:19:33
  No, I totally agree.
• 1:19:35
  All right, Daniel, I think I kept you long enough.
• 1:19:37
  Is there anything else you want to add
• 1:19:39
  to maybe define a little bit more
• 1:19:44
  on what your points were
• 1:19:45
  on any of these conversations?
• 1:19:48
  Nah, to be completely honest,
• 1:19:49
  I've forgotten everything I've said.
• 1:19:51
  All right.
• 1:19:55
  Appreciate your time.
• 1:19:57
  No worries.
• 1:19:58
  Everybody, you can check out Daniel.
• 1:20:01
  Tell everybody about your podcast
• 1:20:02
  and everything that you do
• 1:20:04
  to get information out to the world.
• 1:20:07
  Yeah, so I have a daily podcast
• 1:20:09
  podcast during the week, though I might be changing it very soon. I've got a lot going on.
• 1:20:16
  I've got HM Intelligence YouTube channel. That's the main thing to plug. Go check it out. I try
• 1:20:20
  and make weekly videos, though that might be becoming more common more often as I refine a
• 1:20:26
  few processes or HM Intelligence on Instagram. That's the main place where I spin a yarn daily
• 1:20:36
  about something that's going on.
• 1:20:38
  Here's your YouTube channel right here
• 1:20:40
  for everybody who,
• 1:20:41
  that way it's easily recognizable.
• 1:20:43
  So there it is.
• 1:20:45
  That's HM Intelligence.
• 1:20:46
  That's Daniel's website.
• 1:20:48
  Or not website, it's YouTube.
• 1:20:49
  Plenty of videos,
• 1:20:50
  plenty of information.
• 1:20:51
  He's absolutely great at what he does.
• 1:20:53
  So do take what he does serious.
• 1:20:56
  And that being said,
• 1:20:58
  Daniel, I appreciate your time, sir.
• 1:21:00
  Thank you for coming on the show
• 1:21:02
  and helping us understand
• 1:21:04
  a bit of what's happening.
• 1:21:05
  and we'll stay in touch and I'll reach out again down the road.
• 1:21:09
  Sounds good. Thank you very much.