Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 185 - 12/18/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 185 - 12/18/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

• 0:19
  Hello, and welcome to episode 185 of the All Systems Go sports
• 0:25
  Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
• 0:28
  I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
• 0:35
  Happy Wednesday. We are halfway through our work
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  week. One day closer to bowl games,
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  which are going on right now. But the big ones I'm looking at,
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  of course, the college football playoffs.
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  So should have a few, a few plays there.
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  Of course, one day closer as well to the holiday season.
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  That's right, Christmas, Hanukkah, I'm actually flying
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  out on Christmas Eve to go out to San Diego to spend the
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  holiday with the wife and the in laws.
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  So very much looking forward to that.
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  But we got a lot to get to on today's podcast.
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  I have a four pack of sweats for you guys.
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  There's two bowl games tonight. I'm going to focus on one in
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  particular. It's the late night matchup
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  between Cal and UNLV. So do have a play for you on the
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  side there and then going to get right back to college
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  basketball. Three, I would argue, low bed,
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  obscure, sharp line moves, seeing if we can maybe get 2 or
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  more of those and eek out a winning night.
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  And wouldn't you know what guys, the long exhale.
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  Hallelujah. We had a winning night last
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  night. Just when I thought I couldn't
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  take any more punishment, any more pain, we we saw the light.
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  We were brought out of the darkness, out of the abyss, and
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  we're back breathing the, the air of, of, of what it means and
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  what it feels like to win. So it's kind of like a
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  basketball player. You're ice cold, you're not
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  hitting any shots. We finally saw the ball go in
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  last night, Guys 4 and 1 + 1.91 units.
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  Boy, do we need it. But of course, a good night in
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  college hoops. Lamar Marist and UNC Asheville
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  all came through for the team, which was fantastic.
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  And once again, the importance of money lining short favorites.
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  If you noticed Marist closed -2 -, 2 1/2, they won by two.
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  You had to eat that one out. It was a really sweaty game
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  there toward the end. But again, you lay two 2 1/2,
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  you push or lose your money line and you wins.
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  That was nice to see. And we also, of course, had a
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  winner in the NBA Cup, Milwaukee and OK C.
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  I'm glad I didn't have any action on the side.
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  But of course, we took the under and not only did we beat the
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  closing line, got under 216 and end up closing 215, but that was
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  a beautiful, beautiful game for an under because it was a 9781
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  game and we were cruising and never really worried too much
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  about that one. It was a very low scoring game.
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  Our neutral court angle came through Bigley.
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  So 4 winners, they're the only loser.
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  Memphis West Virginia play the under Actually got some CLV
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  there if you guys noticed that. Memphis, West Virginia under we
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  got under 60 1/2 close 60 at a lot of shops didn't really
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  didn't really matter because ton of points were scored.
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  That thing flew over. And it goes to show you the
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  importance of getting the right number because Memphis
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  technically ended up covering a lot of books closed, you know -4
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  1/2 some books closed 5, which means they pushed.
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  But at one point West Virginia was as high as plus 5 1/2.
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  And even I want to say maybe touch +6.
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  So you know, you could have you could have covered with West
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  Virginia, you could have covered with Memphis, maybe you pushed,
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  but either way, that thing flew over, which again sail sailed
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  over and didn't get our under. But man, after, after a rough
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  stretch there, it was great to see a winning night and our hard
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  work finally paying off 4 and 1 + 1.91 units last night.
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  So let's see if we can keep it going here for today.
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  Maybe start a winning streak. Wouldn't that be nice because we
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  have a quite a few units to claw back after a really bad week.
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  But anyway, I wanted to quickly say thank you to all you guys
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  who tuned into the TikTok Tuesday yesterday.
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  That's right. I'm now on TikTok and I'm
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  hosting every Tuesday at 4:00 Eastern Time, typically until
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  around 5A TikTok live stream. So college hoops live stream and
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  hit on a bunch of games. I notice some familiar faces
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  there, my guy. King Nebuchadnezzar, a few other
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  people who listen to the pod. You guys joined as well.
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  So you can count on that every Tuesday, if you want to tune in
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  live on TikTok from the Rhythm TikTok page, we'll be going live
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  and I'll be hosting. It'll all be college hoops.
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  Hit on some other sports as well.
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  And then of course, every Sunday, myself and James Santor
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  for the Sunday live stream. So it was nice seeing you guys
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  there. But anyway, let's see if we can
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  get a winning streak going after finally again, seeing the ball
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  go through the hoop. Yes, last night, but I want to
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  start with some college football because there's two games
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  tonight. Western Kentucky, James Madison,
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  that's an early game. 5:30 but I want to focus on Cal UNLV.
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  This is my first play of the night.
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  This is the Art of Sport LA Bowl and it's actually the Rob
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  Gronkowski Bowl. It'll be Inglewood, Inglewood,
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  CA at Sofi Stadium. We got Cal coming in six and
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  six. UNLV is 10 and 3.
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  Cal lost two of their last three.
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  Last game they got rolled by SMU and don't Remind me UNLV took
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  them plus the points against Boise, they lost 21 to 7 and did
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  not cover the line, the spread there.
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  So couple things going on here, which I think is really, really
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  important because this really goes to show the importance of,
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  you know, kind of being aware of why a line moves, not just that
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  a line moves. And I really can't stress the
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  importance enough of really knowing who's playing and who's
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  not when it comes to these bowl games because college sports,
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  especially college football, you see it in college hoops as well.
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  You know, they're making money now, which I totally agree with.
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  You know, all these, you know, boosters in schools, they get
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  billions of dollars. The kids who actually play on
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  the court in the field, they should get a little bit of taste
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  of the action. So I'm all for that.
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  But as a better, it makes it kind of hard because when you
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  get to this part of the year, bowl games, you have a lot of
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  coaches who've gotten fired with interim coaches.
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  You also have a lot of players who are entering the transfer
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  portal, so they've opted out and they're not going to play in
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  these games. So it makes you do a lot more
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  research, going on Twitter, following local beat reporters,
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  figuring out who's playing and who's not, which coach is the
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  interim coach. There's a lot of things that are
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  up in the air which can really kind of make it a difficult
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  handicap. And really you're seeing that in
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  this game because there are a lot of guys, especially on the
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  Cal side, which is that's really important.
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  And I want to bet against when you have when you're missing a
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  coach, when you're missing a a top tier wide receiver
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  quarterback, that can again, really negatively affect you as
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  you have new kids, freshmen kind of making their first start.
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  So we're seeing a little bit of that tonight.
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  But I also want to say trust the betting market because when
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  we're scrambling on Google or finding on Twitter who's going
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  to play and who's not, remember the true wise guys who are
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  betting big money on these games, they have inside sources
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  whether we can find out whether these guys are playing or not.
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  Typically if you're betting big money, you know whether or not
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  these guys are in or out. So I, I kind of lean on trusting
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  the market just in general. So let's start off with the line
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  movement and I'll get to some of these opt outs #1 this is a very
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  clear dog to fave line move in favor of UNLV.
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  So this game open with some shops, Cal listed as a
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  three-point neutral site favorite, and now it's flipped
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  all the way to UNLV as a three-point and now 3 1/2 point
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  actually at most shops favorite. So right off the bat, huge
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  adjustment toward UNLV dog to fave line move.
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  You guys know me, I love playing the dog to fave line moves.
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  Will they win every time? Of course not.
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  But typically when you open as a dog and flip to a favorite, the
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  hypothesis there is that the reason for that was you got a
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  lot of respect and money on your side.
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  So dog to fave in favor of UNLV +3 to now -3 1/2.
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  You'll get the bet splits here at DraftKings Spread bets 73%
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  bets 80% dollars on UNLV. At circa 82% bets 79% dollars on
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  UNLV. Now you guys know me by now, I'm
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  not going to lay a 3 1/2 win by three or one, two or three and
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  lose my bet. So I money lined UNLV.
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  I got them at -152 at FanDuel. The other angle that I like, you
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  know, if you do want to lay the points, you know this would be
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  something you want to hear. If not and you go money line,
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  this is going to make you a little bit more confident in the
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  money line. But our friends at Rhythm have
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  UNLV -4.2, so we have UNLV huge dog to fave line move, good bet,
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  split low bets higher dollars. Now at DraftKings, 80% bets 91%
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  dollars on the money line. At circa 75% bets 72% dollars on
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  the money line. So this is both kind of pro and
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  Joe action, all in favor of UNLV and the lines moving toward UNLV
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  with, again, rhythm -4.2. Now here's where we get a little
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  insight into what's going on here and why it's not just
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  important to know, you know, which side the line is moving
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  toward. But why is it just regular smart
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  money or other things at play? Here's why you're seeing this
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  big line move toward UNLV. The starting quarterback for
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  Cal, Fernando Mendoza, he is entering the transfer portal, so
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  he is not playing in this game. He opted out, so their backup I
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  believe is hurt and then their third string or maybe his fourth
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  string is a true freshman. So it looks like there's going
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  to be a true freshman quarterback, I believe, possibly
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  making his first career start. I want to bet against this kid.
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  No offense, hope you have a great career, but big spot when
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  you've never played in a game before or a college game that is
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  also the top wide receiver. Naziah Hunter, top wide receiver
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  for California. He also entered the transfer
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  portal. So you're missing your starting
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  quarterback. You're missing your top wide
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  receiver and I was reading about how there's at least one more
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  offensive lineman out and there could be more opt outs between
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  now and kickoff. So why are we seeing this line
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  really, you know, get steamed and and flip dog to fave in
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  favor of the Rebels? Well, because Cal's missing a
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  ton of guys tonight. Now, I'm not going to say this
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  is a perfect cap because you and all these head coach Barry Odom,
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  he is not coaching this game. He left UNLV and he's going to
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  go coach Purdue. So it is an interim coach.
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  I don't love that. I would rather prefer your main
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  coach be coaching, but I did notice that at least for now,
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  unless something changes and based on the line move, I I
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  would venture to to say or to think that it would stay the
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  same. But the two best players for
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  UNLV look to be playing in this one.
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  Haj Malik Williams, the quarterback he's expected to
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  play and more importantly Ricky White, stud wide receiver.
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  If he sweat in the UNLV games before his kids are really good
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  player, but as of now it looks like he he is playing.
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  Now there are questions that he may be lopped out or declare for
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  the draft and not play, but as right now it looks like he's
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  playing. The other thing I'm going to
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  bank on. You know, even when these teams
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  were healthy, UNLV had a big offensive advantage in this one.
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  UNLV has averaged 36 points a game this year.
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  Cal's only averaged 26 points a game.
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  Now Cal's had definitely the better defense, but when you
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  have already struggled on offense, only averaging 26 a
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  game and now you're down your top wide receiver playmaker and
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  you're missing your star quarterback, I would assume that
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  that defense or that offense is going to get even worse.
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  So we have Cal missing a lot of guys.
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  We have UNLV looking like they're going to play their guys
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  and the line steaming toward UNLV guys.
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  I got to go UNLV rebels here. I'm going money line again.
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  You want to lay the points and save the juice.
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  I hope you win, but I would hate to see like last night.
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  It last night was just a great test case of like man, you had
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  to sweat that thing. Depending on what number you
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  got, ended up being a 5 point game.
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  The line was anywhere between 4 1/2 and 5 1/2.
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  So I'd rather not put myself through that torture.
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  I'll I'll pay a little more juice and I'll just bank on
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  hopefully UNLV winning this game.
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  So I'm on the Rebels UNLV, let's win the damn game.
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  I got -152 at FanDuel. Now over to college hoops after
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  a great, great night last night guys, let's see if we can keep
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  it going for tonight. So I got 3 sweats first one,
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  7:00 Eastern Time. I'm going to focus on Murray
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  State visiting Indiana State now going into this one.
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  Murray State six and three just saw their three-game winning
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  streak however come to an end. They lost in overtime to Western
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  Kentucky their last time out 81 to 76.
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  They pushed as a 5 point Rd. dog.
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  You know, Indiana State six and four.
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  And I was actually looking it up.
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  If you remember Indiana State had the the kid with glasses,
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  Larry nerd, Larry Bird. They had all these names for
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  him. He left the program.
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  So that kid Avila is no longer, I think he's on Saint Louis now.
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  But anyway, they're six and four and they just took down Missouri
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  State 80 to 77. That's their third win in a row
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  and they went out right as a 5 point Rd. dog.
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  What are we seeing across the market for this one low opener?
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  Murray State only opened -2 1/2 on the road.
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  Murray State is now up to -3 1/2.
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  So if you look toward yesterday, this reminds me a little bit of
• 12:26
  that Marist game. Like if you remember Marist,
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  they were -1 1/2 up to -2 1/2. Similar thing here where the
• 12:32
  road team looks like when it opened, wise guys said, hey, we
• 12:36
  like Murray State here. That's a little bit low.
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  Let's hit Murray State, drive them up -2 1/2 to -3 1/2.
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  So the lines move toward Murray State.
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  Now at DraftKings, Murray State is getting 58% of spread bets
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  and 67% of spread dollars. So good, low bets, higher
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  dollars, bet split. Same thing at circa DraftKings.
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  A public book circa a sharp book, only 50% spread bets, but
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  60% spread dollars are on are on Murray State.
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  So both the Sharp book and the square book are showing
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  basically very slight public support relatively 5050, but a
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  predominance of more money on that on that favorite here with
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  Murray State. So I like that.
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  Now Ken Palm does have Murray State winning by three points.
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  They're -3 1/2 in the betting market.
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  So that's why I'm going to money line Murray State.
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  I got Murray State on the money line here at around -165 and
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  it's a little bit high, but again, I want to protect myself
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  and avoid a situation like Marist where again, you would
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  have lost laying the points versus winning.
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  So I'm OK grinding out hopefully wins here on money lining short
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  favorites. But there are a lot of
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  advantages for Murray State. Murray State has the First off,
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  Ken Palms got him ranked way higher, one O 4 in the country
• 13:46
  versus 195. Then if you dig a little bit
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  deeper here, a lot of statistical advantages.
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  Murray State has the better offensive efficiency, 114 in the
• 13:55
  country versus 125 for Indiana State.
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  And then a huge discrepancy in defensive efficiency.
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  Murray State ranks 112th. Indiana State ranks 290.
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  They're one of the worst defensive teams in the country.
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  Murray State also takes much care, better care of the ball.
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  They rank 160th in the country. And turnover percentage doesn't
• 14:15
  sound great, but Indiana State ranks 329, again, one of the
• 14:19
  worst in basketball. Murray State, by the way, is
• 14:21
  only giving up 65 points a game. Indiana State is giving up
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  nearly 80 points a game. So we'll bank on this defense
• 14:27
  hopefully shutting down Indiana State.
• 14:29
  And it's also kind of a buy low, sell high because Murray State,
• 14:32
  you're buying low on a favorite off a loss and you're selling
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  high on a home dog off three straight wins.
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  So add it all up here guys. Again, reminds me of kind of
• 14:41
  that that Marist play, but a short Rd. favorite that became
• 14:44
  more of a favorite tells me smart money's on Murray State.
• 14:46
  Good percentages. Ken Palms got him winning the
• 14:49
  game. If you look at rhythm, rhythm
• 14:51
  has Murray state -2.6, so still got him winning, but that's why
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  I'm going to go money line instead of laying the points.
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  I am on Murray State on the money line.
• 14:59
  Got him around -165 So let's go Racers next one, San Francisco
• 15:05
  and Bradley. This one's really interesting.
• 15:07
  8:00 game tonight. Both teams are really good, but
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  it's pretty clear which side the wise guys like now going into
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  it. San Francisco is 9 and 9:00 and
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  2:00. They've won five straight, just
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  beat Loyola Chicago 76 to 66. They covered as a four point
• 15:22
  neutral site favorite. Meanwhile, Bradley, they're
• 15:25
  eight and two. They had a 7 game win streak
• 15:27
  going, but they just lost to Santa Clara 8474 didn't cover as
• 15:31
  a three-point neutral site dog. So what have we seen across the
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  market here? Well, similar to that UNLV bowl
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  game, really sharp dog to fave line movement in favor of
• 15:39
  Bradley. I like Bradley money line here
• 15:41
  guys. Bradley actually opened this
• 15:43
  game at some shops as around a 1 1/2 point Rd. favorite or sorry,
• 15:46
  1 1/2 point home home dog I should say, and they've now
• 15:50
  flipped to A2 point home favorite and ever since I wrote
• 15:53
  this article for visen.com usually comes out around noon or
• 15:56
  1:00. When I wrote about Bradley, they
• 15:59
  were -2 now I'm seeing some -2 1/2.
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  So I love that even though it's becoming a little bit more
• 16:03
  expensive to go money line. Bradley tells me you got smart
• 16:06
  money going Bradley as the day progresses.
• 16:08
  But aside from the dog to fave line move, looks like you got a
• 16:11
  lot of money specifically playing Bradley to win the game
• 16:14
  on the money line. So I got Bradley at -130 but
• 16:17
  listen to these splits at DraftKings.
• 16:19
  Bradley's only getting 48% of money line bets but 84% of money
• 16:24
  line dollars. A huge low bets higher dollar
• 16:26
  split. And if you are looking at Circa,
• 16:30
  only 33% of money line bets are on Bradley, but it accounts for
• 16:33
  98% of dollars. So a huge low bets, higher
• 16:37
  dollars bet split at both DK and Circa in favor of Bradley, which
• 16:41
  really coincides with that dog to fave line move.
• 16:43
  Now Ken Palm has Bradley winning by one, which again is why I'm
• 16:46
  going to money line them. But Bradley does have a lot of
• 16:49
  interesting advantages. They have the better offensive
• 16:52
  efficiency, 41 in the country versus 79 for San Francisco,
• 16:56
  better effective field goal percentage, 60% versus 57% and
• 17:01
  then also 3 point shooting 45%. This is a good offensive team.
• 17:05
  Hopefully they've come to play tonight versus 37% for San Fran
• 17:09
  and really important in a tight game.
• 17:11
  We always talk about it free throw shooting.
• 17:13
  You got to make your free throws 74% versus 70% in favor of
• 17:17
  Bradley. Another buy low sell high
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  because Bradley is a buy low home favorite off a loss against
• 17:24
  a sell high dog on a win streak. And then lastly home Rd.
• 17:28
  Bradley is 4 and O at home. They played very well on their
• 17:31
  homecourt. Meanwhile, this is San
• 17:32
  Francisco's first true Rd. game of the season.
• 17:35
  They played some neutral sites with these, you know, pre season
• 17:38
  tournaments, but they haven't played a true Rd. game.
• 17:41
  So I'm going to bank on Bradley at home hopefully getting it
• 17:43
  done. Really sharp line move.
• 17:46
  I got Ken Palm telling or sorry, I have rhythm telling me
• 17:49
  Bradley, it should be -2.4 again with Ken Palm saying they're
• 17:52
  winning by one. Let's mitigate some risk.
• 17:55
  Let's go Bradley to win the damn game.
• 17:57
  I got Bradley at -130 Now keep on cruising.
• 18:02
  Last bed of the night. Let's see if we can stay up
• 18:04
  late. Put on a pot of a pot of coffee.
• 18:06
  Yeah, a pot of coffee if I can fake my Boston, my Boston
• 18:10
  accent. But let's look at Montana State
• 18:13
  and UC Riverside 10:00 game tonight, ESPN.
• 18:17
  Plus if you want to sweat it, Montana State comes in five and
• 18:19
  six. Just saw their two game win
• 18:21
  streak come to an end. They got crushed by USC 8963
• 18:25
  failed to cover as a nine point Rd. dog.
• 18:28
  Meanwhile, UC Riverside seven and four, they've won three
• 18:30
  straight just took down Saint Francis Illinois 7855.
• 18:35
  Now across the market, what have you seen?
• 18:37
  Another angle in terms of a short home favorite in favor of
• 18:41
  UC Riverside? UC Riverside open this game
• 18:44
  around -1 1/2 at home. We've now seen UC Riverside get
• 18:48
  steamed up to -2 1/2 and this is also a 10:00 late night low bet
• 18:53
  obscure game. Public's not interested yet.
• 18:55
  Wise guys have taken a position pretty clear here in favor of UC
• 18:58
  Riverside. So I'm money lining UC Riverside
• 19:01
  here, but they're up to -2 1/2 after opening -1 1/2.
• 19:04
  So we know the lines moving in their favor because of not the
• 19:07
  public, because they don't care about this tiny little unpopular
• 19:10
  matchup, but because of sharps taking a position.
• 19:12
  But also if you look at the juice, I see a lot of -2 and a
• 19:15
  halfs -115 so maybe this even gets the three.
• 19:18
  So even further movement possibly between now and 10:00
• 19:22
  on UC Riverside. Of course, you'd love to money
• 19:25
  line them now and see that line creep up and get some CLV.
• 19:28
  That would be nice. But also, if you look at the
• 19:30
  bets, what's it's kind of interesting at circa, only 33%
• 19:33
  of spread bets are on UC Riverside.
• 19:35
  So kind of tells me you got a reverse line move, a little bit
• 19:38
  of a feed, the trendy dog play. But in particular, you got a lot
• 19:41
  of money on UC Riverside winning the game straight up -145 that's
• 19:45
  the number I got. But they're getting around 75%
• 19:48
  of bets, 80% of money line dollars at DraftKings.
• 19:50
  And you may say to yourself, oh, DraftKings square book 7580%.
• 19:54
  Aren't you with the public there, Josh?
• 19:56
  Again, I don't want to be. But here's the thing, even
• 19:58
  though it's quote UN quote, the majority of tickets, 75% bets
• 20:02
  80% dollars. It's such a low back game that
• 20:05
  really it's not public. So that 7580% is more likely to
• 20:08
  be coming from sharper bettors who have taken a position and
• 20:12
  you know, are betting based on respected action.
• 20:14
  So I do like that. You got to remember heavily bet
• 20:17
  NFL game 70 percent, 80% that's bad.
• 20:19
  You want to you want to fade that that public this situation,
• 20:22
  it's different. It's lower bet.
• 20:24
  It's really not a microcosm of where the public is.
• 20:27
  Keep on cruising though. Aside from the obscure line
• 20:30
  move, Ken Palm has UC Riverside winning by one point, which is
• 20:34
  why again, I'm money lining them.
• 20:36
  I got them on the money line at -145 I think I mentioned that,
• 20:40
  but UC Riverside better offensive rebound percentage,
• 20:43
  29% versus 23%. So hopefully they can get some,
• 20:46
  some extra possessions there. On the offensive glass,
• 20:49
  defensive efficiency is better, 170th versus 175.
• 20:53
  Not a huge discrepancy, but UC Riverside is statistically
• 20:57
  better there. And then also I'm looking at
• 20:59
  home Rd. as well because this is a spot to hopefully benefit UC
• 21:04
  Riverside. They're at home and they're four
• 21:06
  and O at home this year. This is also their third
• 21:08
  straight home game, so no travel involved.
• 21:11
  Meanwhile, Montana State is only one in five on the road and
• 21:14
  they're playing their second straight Rd. game.
• 21:16
  So again, this is spot where Riverside is really performed
• 21:19
  well. And I remember I played, I want
• 21:22
  to say I bet Cal State Fullerton against Riverside and Riverside
• 21:25
  beat me and I'm like decent team Now I'm kind of excited to sweat
• 21:28
  in in favor of them, not against them, but I'm going to play UC
• 21:31
  Riverside again. Money line play -145 S 4 money
• 21:35
  lines tonight, guys. 3 in college hoops, one in college
• 21:38
  football. Can we find a way to get three
• 21:40
  of them? UNLV money line in the bowl
• 21:43
  game. And then Murray State, Bradley
• 21:45
  and UC Riverside all money lines as well.
• 21:47
  And of course, let's see. Oh, but did I mention Riverside?
• 21:51
  We have rhythm -2 that's their projection.
• 21:54
  Riverside -2 which again, it tells you probably money line
• 21:57
  there, save yourself a little bit of a or get yourself some
• 22:01
  breathing room there. But again, 4 pack, can we find a
• 22:04
  way to scratch and claw and get three of them?
• 22:05
  That's the goal. But that about does it.
• 22:07
  Everybody, another pod here in the books.
• 22:10
  And man, it's always much, much more fun to do a pod after a
• 22:13
  winning night than a losing night.
• 22:14
  I'll tell you that much. And guys, I'll tell you what
• 22:16
  betting is all about confidence, like I can't stress this enough.
• 22:19
  When things aren't going your way and you're losing, your
• 22:21
  confidence just plummets. You overthink things,
• 22:24
  overanalyze. You're scared to make more bets
• 22:26
  because you're you're afraid you're going to lose.
• 22:28
  And when you're watching a game, you're like, OK, I might be
• 22:30
  winning now, but how? In what way is this team going
• 22:32
  to screw me over, make some stupid mistake and lose for me?
• 22:36
  When you're winning, you can't wait to bet again.
• 22:38
  You feel confident and you feel like even if you're down, you'll
• 22:41
  find a way to scratch and claw and get back and win the game.
• 22:43
  So again, betting is a weird, weird thing psychologically.
• 22:47
  But again, at least at least after last night, hopefully
• 22:50
  we're turning the page and getting a winning streak going
• 22:52
  here. But anyway, finishing up the
• 22:54
  pod, I always start with this first, first thing #1 thank you
• 22:59
  for taking the time out of your busy lives to pull up a chair to
• 23:01
  the virtual bar and listen to some sharp breakdowns on me.
• 23:04
  I always consider you guys friends, you know, getting
• 23:07
  together at the book and talking games and trying to figure out
• 23:10
  sharp moves. So I'm very honored to host this
• 23:12
  pod and very thankful for you guys for tuning in through the
• 23:15
  ups and downs because that's part of it too.
• 23:18
  If you're into sports betting and it's not always great, you
• 23:20
  got you got to you got to fight through the the tough spots when
• 23:23
  things aren't going your way. But secondly, if you enjoy the
• 23:26
  pod and you want to let me know you appreciate the hard work
• 23:28
  that I put in hosting this pod and giving you guys these
• 23:31
  insights, then could you please do a big favor for me?
• 23:34
  Could you please give this podcast a five star review on
• 23:37
  Spotify or iTunes? Go to rate and review.
• 23:40
  Five stars will be very much appreciated.
• 23:41
  Help us to continue to grow the pod and reach a bigger audience.
• 23:45
  If you want to click the follow button that way you get alerted
• 23:47
  as soon as it drops each day or recommend the pod to a friend.
• 23:51
  I'd very much appreciate that as well.
• 23:52
  But please, a five star review. We just hit 305 star reviews.
• 23:56
  So I'm I'm very proud of that. Let's let's get closer to 400.
• 23:59
  Let's start a new new goal here. But secondly, if you enjoy the
• 24:02
  pod and as you know, we're closing in on Christmas and
• 24:06
  Hanukkah on the holidays here and you are scrambling.
• 24:08
  You have no clue what to get your uncle.
• 24:10
  You have no clue what to get your your nephew, your aunt,
• 24:14
  your grandma, your grandpa, whoever, your colleague, What
• 24:17
  are you going to do for, you know, for Yankee swap or Secret
• 24:20
  Santa? You know you should do.
• 24:21
  It's not going to cost you much, a little less.
• 24:23
  It's going to be less than 20 bucks.
• 24:25
  You should go buy a book and not just any book, the everything
• 24:28
  guide to sports betting. That's right, my baby, what I
• 24:31
  poured my heart and soul into a few years ago.
• 24:34
  It's got everything I've learned in the industry.
• 24:35
  How lines are set, how and why they move, how to read line
• 24:37
  movement, how to locate sharp action, how to place a bet in
• 24:40
  person or online, how to shop for the best line, how to set up
• 24:43
  a bankroll management plan, how to become a data-driven better.
• 24:46
  That's what really the book is all about.
• 24:47
  But again, it makes a great stocking stuffer.
• 24:49
  If you want to pick up a copy, I would very much appreciate that.
• 24:53
  Support the team. Go to Amazon.com and go pick up
• 24:56
  a copy of the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
• 24:59
  Next, have you taken advantage of a 7 day free trial of Juice
• 25:02
  Reel or Rhythm yet? My two favorite sports betting
• 25:05
  apps. They help me win.
• 25:06
  They're going to help you win. So let's start with Rhythm who
• 25:09
  does a great job of powering this pod again.
• 25:11
  Tune into the TikTok Tuesday's every 4:00 Sundays at 11:00 AM
• 25:15
  Eastern Time for the NFL live stream algorithm does a great
• 25:19
  job of giving us great angles from an analytic standpoint,
• 25:22
  looking at models and predictions for game bets and
• 25:25
  player props. And then of course, juice Reel
• 25:27
  where all of the all systems go. Best bets are located.
• 25:30
  If you ever missed the pod or want to support the pod and
• 25:34
  basically follow those bets, you'll get them as soon as I put
• 25:36
  them in each day. You'll even get a leg up if I
• 25:39
  put them in before the pod. Hopefully get some good numbers
• 25:42
  cost 499 a week. So again, that's basically a tip
• 25:45
  jar. If you enjoy the service, hey,
• 25:47
  give me a decent tip. Follow the best bets on all
• 25:50
  systems. Go ASG under score podcast on
• 25:53
  juice reel. But juice reel is also great for
• 25:55
  the robo Jackson best bet picks. I noticed robo is hot right now
• 25:58
  so I'm glad to see that. But then also sharp mush
• 26:01
  indicators, arbitrage opportunities.
• 26:04
  Shop for the best line for futures makes it really easy on
• 26:06
  you. And of course, don't forget to
• 26:07
  sync up your sports books to the app so you can get a performance
• 26:11
  and a report card to keep yourself honest.
• 26:14
  But that about does it guys. Finishing up another pod here
• 26:17
  for today. I'll leave you with this last
• 26:19
  couple things, of course, as we always like to end with number
• 26:22
  one, Whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
• 26:25
  River in Rhode Island, the Brooklyn, New Hampshire,
• 26:27
  Foxwoods or Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut at the Encore in
• 26:30
  Boston or Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield In my
• 26:34
  neck of the woods in Massachusetts.
• 26:35
  Or out in the desert where the true grinders get down.
• 26:38
  Or Billy Walter sends his number runners where the lowest juice
• 26:41
  possible is found at the South Point.
• 26:42
  Or sweat and sharp Contrane plays jumping in the stadium
• 26:45
  swim pool. When you cash a big ticket at
• 26:47
  Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to walk up to me
• 26:49
  and finally show me some winning tickets.
• 26:51
  Hallelujah, show me Lamar Marist, UNC Asheville,
• 26:56
  Milwaukee, OKC, NBA Cup under. Guess what guys?
• 27:00
  First one's on me, next one's on you.
• 27:01
  We're going to post about the book sweatshop and train plays
• 27:04
  all night long. So I wish you the best of luck.
• 27:07
  Hope you have a great Wednesday everybody, as always, remember
• 27:10
  up, down, treading water, you know, in the darkness and
• 27:13
  finding some light. Vice versa, doesn't matter the
• 27:17
  process, the model never changes.
• 27:19
  And what is that model? data-driven approach.
• 27:21
  Betting games with our head and not our heart.
• 27:24
  Learning to read the market and make sharp bets based on
• 27:26
  analytics and not based on opinion.
• 27:28
  That's always the go to the guiding light, as I should say.
• 27:33
  But again, guys, against the public, with the house, with the
• 27:36
  pros, flat bet, avoid parlays, get some closing line value.
• 27:39
  If we can do that long term, I'm confident we're going to be
• 27:42
  successful sports bettors. So have a great Wednesday night.
• 27:45
  We got bowl games really, really popping off here over the next
• 27:48
  few days. So we got and I didn't notice
• 27:51
  too. NFL for tomorrow, Denver, LA
• 27:53
  Chargers. Denver's a little bit of a
• 27:55
  trendy dog with the line. Did move toward Denver a little
• 27:57
  bit. Plus 3 1/2 + 3 down to 2 1/2.
• 28:00
  Looks like it may be getting back up to three.
• 28:02
  I'm going to wait, wait that one out.
• 28:03
  Let's give it another day. But that could be an interesting
• 28:06
  one. Denver Chargers for tomorrow and
• 28:08
  we do have for tomorrow as well. Georgia Southern, Sam Houston
• 28:12
  State and then all the big bowl games start on Friday.
• 28:15
  So great time to be betting sports.
• 28:16
  Let's see if we can get a winning streak going.
• 28:18
  Guys. I wish you the best of luck and
• 28:19
  I will see you tomorrow for which will be a Thirsty Thursday
• 28:23
  edition. That'll be episode 186 of the
• 28:26
  All systems Go sports betting podcast powered by rhythm.
• 28:29
  Good luck everybody, have a great night.