Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 194 - 1/9/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

Transcript

Episode 194 - 1/9/25 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:19
Hello and welcome to episode 194 of the All Systems Go sports
0:25
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:28
I'm your host Josh Applebaum. What's going on everyone?
0:35
Happy Thirsty Thursday, our work week rolls on and today begins
0:40
A5 day stretch of playoff football, college Final four,
0:44
NFL playoffs. It's a great time to be alive,
0:46
great time to be betting on sports.
0:49
We got a lot to get to on today's podcast.
0:51
I have a 5 pack of plays for you.
0:53
Excited to sweat out as always. Got 5 plays, let's try to win
0:57
three of them each out a winning night.
0:58
I do have a play here on Notre Dame, Penn State for the Sugar
1:02
Bowl opening game of the Final Four.
1:05
Now this one's been interesting back and forth movement, but I
1:08
am going to lean on a couple things here to to make a bet
1:11
here on a side. Also, I got three games in
1:14
college basketball for you, including an unranked home
1:17
favors ranked opponent, a dog to fave line move, as well as a
1:20
short favorite with a sharp line move.
1:22
And then also going to finish up with a play in the NHL on a very
1:26
good team at home. So 5 pack overall guys.
1:30
We're going to talk about it all in episode 194 of the ASG Pod
1:34
Powered by Rhythm. Now before we talk about last
1:37
night's results because there were some great hits and there
1:39
was a very annoying hit or or failed to hit, but I do just
1:42
want to mention if you are a fan of V Sin and I am a V Sin sports
1:48
betting analyst, I wanted to mention one thing real quick.
1:51
I will now be joining starting tonight at 8:00 Eastern Time
1:55
with my buddy Patrick Maher and Dustin Swielson.
1:58
I'll be making weekly appearances every Thursday
2:00
starting tonight 8:00 on VSON Live, which is on Mad Dog Sports
2:04
Radio. So if you have SiriusXM want to
2:07
tune in, I'll be on tonight 8:00 channel 82.
2:11
And then for all of you VSON fans out there, some great news.
2:14
I think I mentioned this earlier in the week, but VSON is now
2:19
back on SiriusXM. And I remember when I first got
2:21
hired at VSON, it was way back in 2019.
2:24
So I've been there going on 6 years at this point, but I
2:27
remember Beeson used to be on SiriusXM.
2:30
People loved it. When they left SiriusXM, people
2:32
went nuts. They're very disappointed.
2:35
But some great news. Beeson will now be returning to
2:38
SiriusXM on January 17th full time, and that'll be channel
2:42
158. So just wanted to mention that
2:45
now before we dive in our sweats.
2:46
Looking back to her last night, guys 2 and 2 -, 0.4 units now
2:51
had an unbelievable hit to start the night with Villanova.
2:54
Oh my God what a sweat that was. Nova had a pretty decent lead.
2:59
They coughed it up. There were some incredible plays
3:03
at the end where Nova was up by a point and they just needed a
3:06
rebound and couldn't get the rebound.
3:07
Yukon had multiple opportunities.
3:09
It was the sweat of a lifetime. Thank the Lord that Alex Caravan
3:14
who is from Massachusetts not far from where I am in the
3:17
outskirts of Boston, but he got fouled, went to the line with
3:20
like 3 seconds left. They Vilma was up by 1.
3:24
If he makes both free throws, we probably lose the game.
3:27
He missed them both. So thank the Lord he missed
3:30
those free throws. And we eked out an incredible
3:32
win there with Villanova. And then we also got the Florida
3:35
Panthers late night. So it's nice to see a hockey
3:38
winner there. But the annoying ones were #1
3:41
Arkansas didn't really come that close, made it a little bit
3:44
interesting, but they laid an egg for us.
3:46
But the one that really hurt and went from a three in one winning
3:49
night to a two and two slightly losing night was Oklahoma, the
3:53
Sooners, the Sooners. We're facing Texas A and MA and
3:56
M was on the road. A&M was out there without their
3:59
star player, Wade Taylor, and Oklahoma was up 18 points in the
4:04
second-half. They blow it, they implode.
4:06
I've never seen a team implode like that.
4:08
Turnovers, can't get loose balls, fouling, awful shots.
4:13
They end up choking there at the end.
4:14
And what made it even worse, blowing an 18 point lead was
4:18
they actually got a rebound and got fouled in this freshman who
4:21
apparently he's really good. They're up by 1.
4:24
He went to the line. It was a one and one.
4:26
He could have made one and been up two or made them both, got up
4:29
three. He misses it.
4:31
Texas A&M takes it right back. And this kid Phelps, who had an
4:34
incredible night, nails A3 and we lose.
4:36
So that was a really, really tough one there with Oklahoma
4:39
because that was a choke job like I haven't seen in quite a
4:41
while. But either way, guys, let's
4:43
start a winning streak here tonight with A5 pack overall.
4:46
So let's start off with a big one here.
4:48
I always mention if I say big one or I can't wait to sweat
4:50
this one, I always have people think, oh, you're betting 5
4:53
units on it. Nope.
4:54
Always want to mention every play is the same.
4:56
Every play is risking 1 unit. Every play is 3% of your
4:59
bankroll. Flat betting.
5:01
But the big one here is Notre Dame and Penn State.
5:03
So let's set the table here and then also talk through what
5:07
we're seeing today because there is some buyback on Penn State
5:10
and how does that change the handicap?
5:12
So going into it, obviously Final four in college football,
5:15
this is the Sugar Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, home of
5:19
the Dolphins. Notre Dame comes in 13 and one.
5:22
They're the seven seed. They just beat Georgia 23 to 10
5:25
and the quarterfinals they covered as a 1 1/2 point neutral
5:28
site favorite. Penn State, meanwhile, 13 and
5:30
two, the six seed just took down Boise 3114 and the quarterfinals
5:35
covered as an 11 1/2 point neutral site favorite.
5:38
So what have you seen across the market here?
5:40
Well, this game opened with Notre Dame around A1 or 1 1/2
5:43
point neutral site favorite. And early in the week it was all
5:46
Notre Dame. This looks like a pretty clear
5:48
Notre Dame play. Notre Dame got that up -1 -, 1
5:51
1/2 up to -2 1/2. And I pulled the trigger and I
5:54
said, hey, let's money line Notre Dame.
5:56
I was afraid this thing would get to three, but we have seen a
5:59
lot of buyback on Penn State. So those 2 1/2's looks like
6:03
sharp better. Took Penn State plus 2 1/2,
6:05
bring it back down to 1 1/2. And now some books today or even
6:08
at 1:00. So I fully admit late movement
6:11
is breaking toward Penn State. Now let's look at the bet splits
6:14
here, because I think it's important.
6:16
At DraftKings, the Irish are getting 65% bets, 67% dollars.
6:21
And at Circa, Sharp Lookout in Vegas prides itself on accepting
6:25
smart money, not limiting or outright refusing it. 73% bets,
6:29
83% dollars on Notre Dame. So both DraftKings and Circa do
6:34
have low bets, higher dollars, bet split.
6:36
Now I don't like the fact that the public side here is Notre
6:39
Dame, but maybe it's not just public, maybe pro and Joe based
6:42
on those bet splits. Now the line is coming back
6:45
toward Penn State. So I originally money line Notre
6:49
Dame and I'm sticking with Notre Dame dancing with the one who
6:52
brung you. I am of course fully admitting
6:56
I'm I'm wary of this line move back toward Penn State, but I
6:58
would highlight a couple things. One is that a lot of this Penn
7:02
State smart money seem to be on plus 2 1/2 + 2.
7:06
Now you're down 1 1/2 one, I think it's a very important test
7:10
case or something to monitor between now and 7:30.
7:14
Because right now we're at some shops -1 1/2 some shops -1
7:19
between now and 7:30. Does this get down to a pick em?
7:21
If so, that's a bad sign for the Irish, good sign for Penn State.
7:25
Or again, Sharp seem to like Notre Dame -1 1/2 early in the
7:29
week -1 do we see late movement break toward Notre Dame?
7:33
So if you're a fan of late movement, again, I think the
7:35
next move is going to be very meaningful.
7:37
Are we down to a pick good sign for Nittany Lions or do we creep
7:41
back up toward Notre Dame? Good sign toward Notre Dame?
7:44
Now I money line the Irish. And if you're like me and you
7:47
maybe played them before, again, this is kind of AI.
7:51
Don't know. It's a personal thing when it
7:52
comes to sports betting. Like when you bet a game and you
7:54
see the line go away from you, obviously that's a bad sign.
7:58
Doesn't mean you're guaranteed to lose, but obviously it's not
8:00
a good thing. But it becomes a question and
8:02
decision in your personal preference, You know, do you bet
8:06
the other side? Do you cash out?
8:08
Do you stick with your bet? I'm a big proponent of dancing
8:11
with the one who brung you. I made a bet on Notre Dame.
8:15
Obviously it wasn't a good bet because I bet him at -132 on the
8:18
money line and now they're -115 But if Notre Dame wins again,
8:23
which I'm, which is what I'm rooting for cuz that's the side
8:25
that I have action on. You know, if I were to cash out
8:28
or bet Penn State, I'm kind of mitigating.
8:31
And if I lose, I probably deserve to lose cuz I got a bad
8:34
number. So I always dance with the one
8:36
who brung me. I always make this joke, but at
8:38
the Sadie Hawkins dance in 6th grade when Samantha asked me to
8:42
dance and maybe there's a prettier girl who said, oh, you
8:44
want to dance with me? Natalie says, oh, want to dance
8:46
with me? No, I promised Samantha dance
8:48
with her so I'm dancing with her.
8:50
So I remember the Sadie Hawkins dance at my elementary school or
8:55
middle school. The last song was always
8:57
Stairway to Heaven, Led Zeppelin, and you would dance
9:00
like mummies, you know, you put your hands on the shoulders of
9:02
the girl. So anyway, weird, weird
9:05
anecdote, but basically I stick with my original bet, but here's
9:09
what you're going to kind of like if you're going to play
9:11
Notre Dame with me. Chalk chalk favorites have been
9:14
really, really good in the in the college ball Playoff.
9:16
Chalk favorites. The team that's favored to win
9:19
through eight games is 8, no straight up seven and one
9:22
against the spread. So I'm going to bank on that,
9:25
put that in my back pocket. I'm also going to look at
9:29
rhythm. This is a big night for me where
9:31
I am going to hope that rhythm is on our side tonight because
9:35
Rhythms recommendations are Notre Dame.
9:37
Two rhythm models here. One says Notre Dame should be
9:39
-1.6, which is again, pretty much right on the number.
9:43
Another one that says they should be -3.2.
9:46
So again, rhythm is saying recommended money line play.
9:49
Now, if you are gonna, like, if you have no action on this game
9:52
as of now and you want to play Notre Dame, to me it's a money
9:54
line bet. You don't want to lay A1, 1 1/2.
9:56
They win by 1. You push or lose.
9:58
So I'm sticking with my Notre Dame.
10:01
Maybe that's a mistake. I don't like this movement back
10:04
toward the Nittany Lions, but I am going to bank on again these
10:08
chalk plays doing very well in the playoffs.
10:11
The good bet splits, They're at least low bets, higher dollars
10:13
on the Irish. And then also the rhythm.
10:16
The big thing for me is rhythm that they still have Notre Dame
10:18
recommended money line. Now in terms of the total, it
10:23
feels like it's an under play. It open 47 as high as 47 1/2.
10:27
It's down to 45 1/2, even down to 45 now.
10:30
There's a lot to like about the under at DraftKings. 62% bet,
10:34
68% dollars on the under. At circa 95% bets, 81% dollars
10:39
on the under. Both these teams have really
10:41
good defenses. 13.6 points per game allowed with Notre Dame
10:46
second best in the country. Penn State giving up around 16,
10:49
their 5th best. They're also both really good or
10:52
really slow basically. And pace of play, they rank
10:55
82nd. The Penn State Nittany Lions and
10:57
the Irish won 12th. And again, there's only 120
11:00
teams or something. So they're they're slower and
11:03
they also run the ball a lot. So Penn State is 3030 first in
11:07
terms of the highest percentage of run plays.
11:09
Notre Dame is 41st. So you're in that upper, you
11:12
know, upper quarter basically, which again, you run the ball a
11:15
lot, chew up the clock benefit to an under.
11:17
This game will be played outdoors Hard Rock Stadium going
11:21
to be like mid 50s, eight mile per hour winds gusts up to 14.
11:24
Not technically windy under, but I would lean under here.
11:27
Like if you if you're at 45 1/2 and you can get the hook, I
11:30
would lean under in this one. But my one bet here is also also
11:35
wanted to mention sharp mush indicator from our friends at
11:38
Juice Reel 7% edge on Notre Dame.
11:40
So hey, I'll take that. But again, if you tell me you
11:43
like Penn State, I'm not going to argue with you.
11:45
I have a couple people that I respect that like Penn State,
11:48
the line is coming back toward Penn State, but I already bet
11:51
Notre Dame. I'm sticking with my bet.
11:53
I got a good rhythm edge and I'm going to hope that these chalk
11:55
favorites continue their their good streak here.
11:58
So I'm on the Irish, let's go Rudy Irish money line.
12:02
I got a -, 132. I got a bad number.
12:04
If you're playing Irish money line, you can get as low as a -,
12:07
115 right now. Now over to some college hoops
12:10
because we got 3 plays for you guys in college basketball.
12:14
Start with an early 1 Oregon and Ohio State.
12:17
Now this is a six O clock game on Big 10 network and this is
12:22
Oregon coming in 13 and 2 ranked 15th in the country versus Ohio
12:27
State 10 and five. Now I fully admit Ohio State was
12:30
in the spot against Michigan State.
12:33
I think it was last week and they didn't come through.
12:34
So they owe us a win here. I like Ohio State on the money
12:37
line guys. I got him at -150 Now why do I
12:41
like Ohio State? From a data perspective, they
12:44
look really sharp. A lot of these books open Ohio
12:46
State as low as a 2 point favorite.
12:49
We've now seen Ohio State get up to -3 and at some shops earlier
12:53
today they got even as high as like 4/4 and 1/2.
12:56
So all movement liability has been on Ohio State.
12:59
Now they would match unranked home favorite, first ranked
13:02
opponent, which has been a go to system for us for many years at
13:05
this point. Fishy.
13:06
Why is the unranked, you know, Buckeye squad favorite over the
13:09
Ducks? That's kind of a play that I
13:12
want to embrace. Good bet splits DraftKings Ohio
13:15
State's only getting 43% of spread bets with the line moved
13:18
in their favor. So some good RLM at Circa 48%
13:23
bets, 54% dollars, but in particular on the money line,
13:27
which is my play here, money line again, always mention it.
13:30
Not going to lay a three win by three and push or one or two and
13:33
lose. So I got a -, 150 at ESPN bet.
13:37
But at DraftKings on the money line, 52% bets on the Buckeyes,
13:41
but 75% dollars and at Circa only 50% bets 96% dollars.
13:47
So good splits there in favor of the Buckeyes.
13:50
Now Ken Palm has a winning by two.
13:52
Rhythm has Ohio State -2.9. So at least both my two
13:57
favorite, you know, sharp, sharp predictors here have Ohio State
14:01
winning the game, which is all we care about if we're going
14:03
money line. And I'm going to bank on a
14:05
couple things. Ohio State better adjusted
14:07
defense, not a huge gap, but 39th versus 46th effective field
14:12
goal percentage, 56% versus 53% and 3 point shooting 37% versus
14:18
35%. But once again, if you give me
14:21
one of those heavily backed games tonight, Publix on the
14:23
trendy dog Lions going to the sharp contrarian favorite.
14:26
I got to go with that RLM and take Ohio State.
14:29
So again, they'll they let us down against Michigan State in
14:32
the same spot last week. They owe us a win here.
14:34
Let's go Buckeyes got Ohio State money line -150 now a small,
14:41
small game tonight probably maybe underrater, maybe not, but
14:45
it looks really sharp, so I want to play it. 7:00 Eastern Time we
14:49
have Oakland against right state.
14:52
So going this one, two teams, Oakland not that great, 5 and 11
14:57
they've lost. What is it?
14:59
They've lost 1234 their last five.
15:03
You on the other side, you have right state who just snapped A3
15:06
game losing skid. Just be Green Bay 7451.
15:10
They're 8:00 and 8:00 on the year.
15:12
This looks pretty clear. Sharp movement in favor of right
15:15
state. I'm going right state money line
15:16
here. This is another -150 money line
15:19
bet from ESPN bet. But right state opened around -2
15:22
1/2. They've gotten up to -3 and
15:25
they're juiced up in some shops have even gone to -3 1/2.
15:28
So one way movement in favor of right state.
15:31
Now next we have good bet splits here from circa on the spread.
15:35
77% bets, 86% dollars. Also it's relatively low back
15:40
game, so it's not a huge public play money line though splits at
15:44
circa 86% bets, 95% dollars. So tells me the the sharps out
15:49
in Vegas really like Wright State to win this game.
15:52
Now Ken Palma is right state winning by 4 points.
15:55
So I like that for money lining them around 3:00, Rhythm has a
15:59
-, 2.6 and a -, 3.1. So again, Rhythm has Wright
16:03
State winning this game. Offense efficiency, hopefully
16:07
this is a big advantage here. 124th in the country for Wright
16:10
State, 179th for Oakland. Better effective field goal
16:14
percentages or percentage, 56% versus 46%.
16:20
Big edge free throw or three-point shooting, 38% versus
16:24
27%. Big edge free throw shooting,
16:27
72% versus 66%. And also home Rd.
16:32
Wright State is five and one at home this year.
16:34
Oakland one and six on the road. So I want to play that home Rd.
16:38
split in favor of right against Oakland and a little bit of rest
16:42
advantage. The Wright State Raiders last
16:45
played on the 2nd of January. Oakland, the Golden Grizzlies,
16:49
remember, they did make a run in the tournament last year.
16:51
They're a bit of a Cinderella but lost a lot of guys and not
16:54
the same team this year. They last played on the 4th, so
16:58
again, not huge. You're young.
17:00
I mentioned this all the time. You know rest advantages in
17:02
college. It's not always about getting
17:04
more rest. It's more time in the gym, more
17:06
practice time. We add it all up.
17:08
We got a low back game, but a pretty clear move to right
17:11
state. Ken Palm says they're going to
17:12
win. Rhythm says they're going to
17:14
win. Good splits, home Rd. offensive
17:17
advantages. I'm going right state to win
17:19
this, win this damn game. I got them on the money line at
17:22
-150 Now late night sweat. This is a game that you might
17:28
puke in your mouth because these teams aren't very good.
17:31
But hopefully a little little bump here in the altitude for
17:34
the home team. North Dakota, the Fighting Hawks
17:37
visiting the Denver Pioneers 9:00 tonight.
17:40
We have both teams at 6:00 and 11:00.
17:43
Both teams are not very good, but we've seen a clear move
17:46
toward Denver. This game opened on the road
17:49
North Dakota around a 1 1/2 point Rd. favorite.
17:52
It is now flipped to Denver -1 1/2 some shops even -2 so we got
17:58
a dog to fave line move on Denver.
18:01
We have really good bet splits on Denver.
18:03
At DraftKings, 67% bets. On the spread 95% dollars.
18:08
At circa 83% bets, 93% dollars. Money line.
18:13
There's a money line played for me relatively cheap.
18:15
I got Denver -130 on the money line at Caesar's and at
18:19
DraftKings, only getting 65% bets, 94% dollars.
18:23
A lot of advantages here offensively for Denver.
18:26
Effective field goal percentage, 50% versus 47%.
18:30
Better three-point shooting, 34% versus 31%.
18:33
Better free throw shooting, which always is important in a
18:36
tight game. Just look back toward Nova last
18:39
night, 75% versus 68%. Once again, home Rd.
18:44
Both these teams are 6:00 and 11:00, but Denver's five and one
18:47
at home. North North Dakota is 1/5 on the
18:50
road. Ken Palm has Denver winning by
18:52
one. Rhythm has Denver -1.3 - 1.5.
18:57
And I mentioned the altitude again, Denver Pioneers you're
19:00
used to Mile High. North Dakota, not so much.
19:03
Hopefully, hopefully North Dakota gets gassed in the
19:05
second-half and Denver is used to it.
19:07
But tiny little Game 2 bad teams.
19:10
I'm going to go with the home favorite dog to fave line move.
19:13
I got Denver Pioneers on the money line at -130 so Wright
19:18
State, Ohio State and Denver, can we get two of those At least
19:22
that is the goal now to finish up the pod.
19:25
Got an NHL play for you. This is a late night sweat.
19:29
I'm going to focus on New York Islanders and the VGK Golden
19:34
Knights. So going into it, 10:00 game,
19:37
ESPN Plus tonight, the Islanders come in 15-18 and seven.
19:41
They just snapped A3 game losing skid.
19:43
They beat the Bruins. My Bruins stink right now.
19:46
Five to four in OT, VGK 28, nine and three.
19:50
They just continue to roll. They've won three straight.
19:53
They played well all year. So where am I going this one?
19:56
I'm not outsmarting myself. Give me the Vegas flu.
19:59
I got Vegas tonight, guys on the money line now shop around.
20:02
I got VGK at -172 at FanDuel. Some shops are a little bit
20:06
higher. It's not a huge line move play
20:08
to me like VGK open around -170. They opened some shops as
20:13
always, like -165 up to -170 some shops higher like -180 but
20:20
I got a lot of system matches and a lot of advantages here for
20:24
the Vegas Golden Knights. So first, let's look at the
20:26
goaltenders. Ilya Sarokin expected to be a
20:29
net for the Islanders. He's got a 2.9 two goals against
20:32
and an 898 say percentage against Aiden Hill, who really
20:37
no one ever heard of until he he won the cup for the Knights few
20:40
years ago. But he's had a good year. 2.58
20:43
goals against, nine O 4 save percentage.
20:45
Also, let's look at how these goalies have performed recently.
20:49
In the month of December, Sarokin had a 3.45 goals
20:52
against. A little bit better in January.
20:53
He's only made two starts, but still 2.97 goals against.
20:58
Hill's been great. Knock on wood. 2.26 goals
21:01
against in December. 8 One goals against in January.
21:05
He only had one game, but he only gave up one goal.
21:07
But also like that Aiden Hill at home 2.3 Three goals against
21:11
versus on the road. 2.84 So better goalie overall on the
21:16
year recently and at home. A lot of advantages here for
21:20
Vegas as well. Offensively, they're averaging
21:22
3.6 goals a game versus 2.7 for the Islanders.
21:26
Defensively, they're giving up 2.7.
21:29
Islanders give up 3.2. I'm also going to put a lot of
21:32
stock into special teams power play.
21:35
Big advantage here, 25% for VGK versus only 11% for the
21:40
Islanders and the penalty kill, 78% versus only 64% for VGK.
21:47
Then we're going to look at one of the best home ice advantages
21:51
in hockey, the Vegas flu. Joke about that, but Vegas Flu
21:54
is basically you go out to Vegas as the visiting team, you have a
21:57
little bit too much fun playing blackjack and staying up all
22:01
night and getting into trouble. You're distracted, you don't
22:04
play well. Who knows, maybe you're
22:05
hungover. I'm not saying that the
22:07
Islanders are that, but maybe that's partly why Vegas does so
22:11
well at home. But Vegas is 17 and four at home
22:15
on the road, Islanders just 8-9 and five.
22:17
And also, I have another system, both off a win.
22:20
Take the favorite because Golden Knights just beat the Sharks
22:23
four to two Islanders beat the Bruins in OT, as I mentioned,
22:26
5:00 to 4:00, but both off the wind.
22:28
Take the favorite. That's 59% over the last couple
22:31
years. So we have a little bit of line
22:33
movement. We have the better goal tending,
22:37
we have better offense, better defense, better special teams,
22:40
and really best the best home ice advantage in hockey.
22:44
Add it all up, I'm staying up late sweating the Golden Knights
22:47
tonight. I got Vegas, I got them at -172
22:50
You might be able to find a -, 165 out there, but let's go VGK.
22:56
So that about does it for episode 194 of the All Systems
22:59
Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
23:02
This is the part of the pod though, where we wrap things up.
23:05
And I start by first thanking you for taking the time out of
23:08
your busy lives to pull up a chair to the virtual bar and
23:11
sweat some sharp betting data-driven breakdowns with me.
23:14
But then after I butter you up, now I'm going to ask you a
23:16
favor. Could you please, if you enjoy
23:18
this podcast, give it a five star review.
23:21
If you're listening on Spotify or iTunes, click five stars,
23:24
click the follow button. If you want to recommend it to a
23:26
friend, that'll be a fantastic help us to continue to grow the
23:30
podcast. If you also like the pod and you
23:33
are intrigued by data-driven betting, maybe you want to
23:36
become an even better data-driven better, pun intended
23:39
there. But guess what?
23:40
I wrote a book, something you can hold in your hands and
23:42
revert back to and highlight and right in the margins.
23:45
But if you want to pick up a copy or gift it to a friend,
23:48
that colleague, cousin, buddy of yours who maybe has never bet on
23:52
sports and wants to give it a try but has no freaking clue
23:55
where to begin. Go to Amazon.com, type in the
23:58
everything guide to sports betting.
24:00
Buy a copy. It's got everything I've learned
24:02
in the industry. I basically wrote it from the
24:04
perspective of, hey, you want to bet on sports.
24:07
You don't. You have no clue how how it
24:08
works. You need a blueprint.
24:10
Here's a data-driven approach. So how lines are set, how and
24:13
why they move, how to read line movement, how to locate sharp
24:16
action, how to place a bet in person or online, how to shop
24:19
for the best line, how to set up a bankroll management plan, how
24:22
to go contrarian. All that is included in my book,
24:25
the Everything Guide to Sports Betting.
24:26
So go buy a copy and once you buy it, bring it to the sports
24:29
book. I actually drove by the Nash
24:31
last night, which if you're in New England like me, there
24:35
aren't many options. Like you could go to the Encore
24:38
in Boston, which is the big one. Plain Ridge Park Casino is
24:41
closer to like Foxborough where the Patriots play out in Western
24:45
Mass, where I'm from. Springfield, you have The MGM.
24:48
But actually there is a new casino and sports book opening
24:51
called The Nash in Nashua, NH, which is only about 1520 minutes
24:55
away from me. And it's very close to opening.
24:57
I drove by it. They're starting to put up the,
24:59
you know, the lights and the banners and that'll be my
25:03
probably my new book. So bring my book to the Nash in
25:06
about a month, I'll sign it for you.
25:08
I'll buy a beer or ginger ale and we'll sweat some plays
25:11
together. Next, have you taken advantage
25:13
of a 7 day free trial of Juice Reel or Rhythm yet?
25:16
My two favorite sports betting apps, They help me win.
25:18
They're going to help you win. Just adding more data to your
25:22
repertoire. So First off, download Rhythm.
25:26
All you got to do is go to where you can get an app, the App
25:28
Store, iTunes, whatever. Type in Rhythm, RITHMM rhythm
25:33
does a great job providing us AI backed models and predictions
25:36
for game bets and player props. Juice reel, same thing.
25:39
Go to your App Store, type in juice reel.
25:41
That's where you can follow all the all systems.
25:44
Go best bets from the social tab if you want to.
25:47
If you want to follow support the pod, consider it a tip jar.
25:50
It's 499 a week to get the plays.
25:52
That's $4.99 but then also you will get the Robo Jackson best
25:57
bet best bet picks Robo continues to stay high to you.
26:00
He had he was two and on yesterday.
26:02
I'm actually kicking myself. I I should have played the
26:04
Cleveland Cleveland Cavs because they ended up coming coming
26:08
through with a very short chalk win against the against OKC and
26:13
Robo had the Cavs in that one. But anyway, you could tell those
26:17
look at the sharp mush indicators arbitrage plays.
26:21
It's really great and makes it easy to shop for the best
26:23
futures price and then you'll also get the exact dollar
26:26
breakdowns for everyone who has synced up their sports books on
26:29
all the major games. So download rhythm, download
26:31
juice reel and I'm pretty sure they'll help you cash some
26:35
tickets. So that about does it.
26:37
As always, win, lose or draw, whatever the case may be, hot
26:42
cold trying to grind out a winning night.
26:45
The regardless of your results the previous night or the
26:48
previous week. Hopefully the blueprint never
26:50
changes, making sharp data-driven bets.
26:53
So we can do that, that games with our head and on our heart,
26:55
against the public, with the sharps, with the pros flatbed,
26:58
avoid parlays, get that CLV. If we can do that long term,
27:02
weather the storm, the ups and downs, maybe some bad breaks and
27:06
bad beats, try to overcome the juice and the sharp lines the
27:09
odds maker set. But if we can stay true to that
27:11
model long term and be disciplined with our bankroll
27:13
management, if we can do that, I'm pretty confident we're going
27:17
to be winning sports bettors. So have a great Thursday night,
27:20
guys. Again, this is this is the good
27:21
time of the year, five straight days of playoff games, Notre
27:26
Dame, Penn State today, Ohio State, Texas tomorrow.
27:29
Will Texas get the plus 6 1/2? I'm keeping an eye out for that.
27:33
Then of course, we got Saturday, Sunday and Monday playoffs.
27:37
And they are mentioning, because obviously the terrible wildfires
27:42
out in LA, they're talking about maybe moving the Rams game.
27:45
So Minnesota open -2 1/2 it's down to 1 1/2.
27:47
One, if the Rams don't have home home field and they move that
27:51
game to the Cardinal Stadium. Do we see that line move it all?
27:54
That's something to maybe look out for.
27:57
But as of now, let's let's give it a couple days and continue to
28:01
send our thoughts and good vibes to the the good people out in LA
28:05
who are dealing with just a just a terrible situation.
28:08
Imagine your, your house burning down.
28:10
I mean, I can't think of much worse than that.
28:11
So it's really bad to see. But hopefully they can get that
28:15
fire under control soon. But as always, guys, let's get
28:19
let's have a winning night and be right back at it.
28:21
Hopefully, or I know we will be barring something crazy
28:25
happening, but I'll be right back at it tomorrow.
28:27
And by the way, we do have some biting UFC in the arena.
28:32
I'm already looking at the slate for tomorrow.
28:34
I got some liens, but I'm going to wait for John Ewing, my buddy
28:37
at BET MGM to give me that those bet splits.
28:40
I'll head up my buddy Gamble and Lou, Lou Finocaro, who's one of
28:43
my UFC mentors, see what he likes and hopefully have a UFC
28:47
bet for you tomorrow going into the weekend, but have a
28:50
fantastic night everybody. Thirsty Thursday's here and as
28:54
always, I'll be right back at it tomorrow for episode 195 of the
28:59
All Systems Go Sports Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
29:02
Good luck everybody, Have a great Thursday night.