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The Favorites - AFC West Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five. We are part of the Volume Podcast Network.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: I am Chadmllman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: Mike Campadre, my bff professional better Simon Hunter.
• 0:29
  Speaker 2: Hello, so I'm in.
• 0:31
  Speaker 3: Hello Chad, Am. I supposed to let you talk about
• 0:34
  Speaker 3: Williams for about five minutes before I throw some cold
• 0:36
  Speaker 3: water on it. What do you want to do here?
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: Let me teks, you don't need to throw cold water
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: on it. I had a very urgent phone call today
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: from my buddy Matt. Everybody knows my buddy Matt. We
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: have been Bears fans together from the time we were
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: in the cradle going his games with his family.
• 0:55
  Speaker 2: They had season.
• 0:56
  Speaker 1: Tickets every two days. Part of our conversation is about
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: the Bears. I'm walking into the office, he calls me.
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: He goes, do you really think the Bears are not
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: going to go over their season win total? I'm like,
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: I have the Bears as a seven win team at best.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: The expectations are too high. I don't care what we're
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: seeing in preseason that is not regular season They're in
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: a hard division against two very good teams in a
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: hard conference.
• 1:26
  Speaker 2: With really good rosters.
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: This is not a team we are going to get
• 1:30
  Speaker 1: over excited about. I am not investing in the Bears
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: over season win total. I threw the cold water all
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: on my own sign.
• 1:40
  Speaker 3: That's no fun. But no, that was exciting. Come on, now,
• 1:42
  Speaker 3: that was amazing him doing Mahomes things.
• 1:45
  Speaker 2: Oh my god, it's insane.
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: Bears fans were going crazy. But at the end of
• 1:51
  Speaker 3: the day, I told you, my biggest fear with him
• 1:54
  Speaker 3: right now is just the coaching, Like, that's the fear.
• 1:56
  Speaker 3: And they started the game zero for three, three straight,
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: three straight three and outs, and it didn't start working
• 2:04
  Speaker 3: until he started improvising. So yeah, that's that's the fear
• 2:07
  Speaker 3: right now. Right That's that's the big questions with Williams.
• 2:11
  Speaker 1: Nobody has sold on Ibra Flues, nobody has sold on
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: Shane Waldron.
• 2:15
  Speaker 2: It felt like.
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: Not inspired higher when you're investing as much as you
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: are in Caleb Williams and in this offense. And you
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: mentioned the play calling. Look, we're not gonna dissect preseason
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: game play calling, but I will say in the first
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: series he had against the bills. It was so easy
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: to say, we've got a third and short. Why didn't
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: you just run a slant to Keenan Allen And yet
• 2:43
  Speaker 1: they were trying to have him drop back send receivers
• 2:46
  Speaker 1: far down field. It made no sense. I am hopeful,
• 2:49
  Speaker 1: hopeful that they will start to see what everybody else
• 2:52
  Speaker 1: is seeing.
• 2:53
  Speaker 2: Make the easy calls.
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: It is not that hard to let this guy succeed
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: because he is so talented. Just make the calls that
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: are going to put him in a position to succeed.
• 3:06
  Speaker 2: Simon.
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: For today's pen ultimate installment of our annual NFL Division
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: Preview series, we are discussing the AFC West and we
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: are joined by my always antagonist, my always sad he
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: left us, yet still relieved he left us, Mister Matthew Friedman,
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: one of the dynamos at Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life.
• 3:38
  Speaker 2: Freedman.
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: We had a little cast before the show began, and
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: it must have felt like home to you.
• 3:44
  Speaker 4: Yeah. Absolutely, it's good to be back on the show
• 3:47
  Speaker 4: with you too. I will say with the Caleb Williams
• 3:49
  Speaker 4: stuff looks awesome. I totally agree about any I don't know.
• 3:56
  Speaker 4: I'm not gonna be able to come up with the
• 3:57
  Speaker 4: right word to describe the coaching staff, but they are
• 4:00
  Speaker 4: using it's just preseason. They are using more two tight
• 4:03
  Speaker 4: in sets than anyone else in the league. And one
• 4:06
  Speaker 4: of the best things about the Bears is that they
• 4:09
  Speaker 4: have three really good wide receivers. Why would you use
• 4:11
  Speaker 4: two tight in sets more than anyone else when you
• 4:13
  Speaker 4: have three really good wide receivers. So we just have
• 4:15
  Speaker 4: to see what this looks like in the regular season.
• 4:17
  Speaker 4: But the coaching staff could very well leave something to
• 4:20
  Speaker 4: be desired.
• 4:21
  Speaker 1: Matthew Friedman the only man in sports media who could
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: write a ten thousand word story and you find himself
• 4:27
  Speaker 1: in a podcast at a loss for words.
• 4:30
  Speaker 4: That's sure.
• 4:31
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• 5:40
  Speaker 1: All right, let's get into the AFC West. I have
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: been saying this for every division preview. In nineteen of
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: the past twenty one seasons, an NFL team has gone
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: from worst to first in its division. Last year, the
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: AFC West was won by the Kansas City Chiefs in
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: last place, don't forget in last place, Los Angeles Chargers.
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: So I'm not saying it's going to happen, but boy,
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: you've got a Justin Herbert who hopefully will be healthy.
• 6:12
  Speaker 1: A Jim Harbaugh revamped offensive line offensive scheme for the Chargers.
• 6:17
  Speaker 1: We're going to get into it, for sure. I'm curious
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: to see what Friedman and Simon have to say if
• 6:24
  Speaker 1: this is the year the Chiefs don't dominate the AFC West.
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: Right now, the Chiefs five to one to win the
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl, minus two thirty to win the division. Eleven
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: and a half is the season win total. Reminder four
• 6:42
  Speaker 1: purposes of this, we are looking at strength of schedule.
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: There's his twelfth easiest. We are looking at offensive line
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: rank because that is so important overall for a team's
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: foundational success. Chiefs A line is top five. Right d
• 6:58
  Speaker 1: line is fourteen, only one of only two teams whose
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: guards are both righted in the top fifteen according to
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: Pro Football Focus. That's Joe Toney and Trey Smith. They
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: were nine to ten. Creed Humphrey was fourth overall. Tackles
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: are a week spot Donovan Smith, Juwan Taylor. Everyone who
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: listens to the favorites can remember David Bachtiari just naming
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: Juwan Taylor as ruining it for everybody for the way
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: he's jumping out of his stance too early. He had
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: a league leading nineteen penalties last year.
• 7:32
  Speaker 2: Freeman. Since you're the guest, we'll start with you. So
• 7:38
  Speaker 2: what would you little maniacs like to do?
• 7:40
  Speaker 5: First?
• 7:41
  Speaker 4: Is it the most boring thing ever? Just to say, like,
• 7:43
  Speaker 4: each year, as long as the Chiefs aren't any longer
• 7:46
  Speaker 4: than five to one, or like any shorter than five
• 7:48
  Speaker 4: to one, rather like people should basically just be betting
• 7:51
  Speaker 4: them to win the Super Bowl. Like Patrick Mahomes anytime
• 7:54
  Speaker 4: he's longer than like three to one to win MVP,
• 7:58
  Speaker 4: maybe bet on pack Mahomes to win MVP. I mean,
• 8:01
  Speaker 4: this is like there was the Montana era, there was
• 8:04
  Speaker 4: the Tom Brady era, Like we are firmly in the
• 8:06
  Speaker 4: Mahomes era. Think about how bad that offense was last
• 8:11
  Speaker 4: year for the Chiefs. Every year of the Andy Reid
• 8:14
  Speaker 4: era with Patrick Mahomes and that you know, last season
• 8:17
  Speaker 4: with Alex Smith, the Chiefs have been top six in
• 8:20
  Speaker 4: scoring except for last year they were number fifteen in
• 8:23
  Speaker 4: scoring offense and they still won the Super Bowl. Like
• 8:26
  Speaker 4: last year was the golden opportunity for someone to steal
• 8:30
  Speaker 4: a Super Bowl in the Mahomes era, and they didn't
• 8:33
  Speaker 4: do it. This team is going to be better on offense,
• 8:36
  Speaker 4: a little bit worse on defense, but defense is volatile
• 8:38
  Speaker 4: year to year. Anyway, the Chiefs could easily repeat, and
• 8:44
  Speaker 4: I don't think it would be it would shock anyone,
• 8:46
  Speaker 4: Like five to one. I'm not saying, like go bet it,
• 8:48
  Speaker 4: but like that's the line to where if it's five
• 8:50
  Speaker 4: to one, basically just bet it every year and you
• 8:54
  Speaker 4: probably make money over the next ten years.
• 8:56
  Speaker 3: Simon, I mean, we're gonna the other team's just division,
• 8:59
  Speaker 3: but this sadly is a born division.
• 9:01
  Speaker 4: Chat.
• 9:01
  Speaker 3: It's it's business as usual, right. You have the best
• 9:04
  Speaker 3: coach with the best quarterback in this division, and the
• 9:07
  Speaker 3: rest of the team is much better than they were
• 9:09
  Speaker 3: last year. I mean, we all feel so much more
• 9:11
  Speaker 3: confident in this offense than we did sit at this
• 9:13
  Speaker 3: point last year, and we thought, you know, Herbert, that team,
• 9:16
  Speaker 3: the Chargers, they would give a run for their money
• 9:18
  Speaker 3: last year, and they completely fell apart. Chat. So that
• 9:20
  Speaker 3: was one of our worst you know, conversations and bets
• 9:23
  Speaker 3: we made last year, was just believing the Chargers maybe
• 9:26
  Speaker 3: had a chance just because there was weakness last year.
• 9:29
  Speaker 3: But now here we are, Chat, there is no weakness.
• 9:31
  Speaker 3: I already told you this is a team that I've
• 9:33
  Speaker 3: made a bunch of futures bets on them with you know,
• 9:36
  Speaker 3: the Eagles and the Lions and Super Bowl futures. It's like,
• 9:38
  Speaker 3: you know, twenty five thirty five to one. I want
• 9:40
  Speaker 3: to make those kind of bets because I do think
• 9:42
  Speaker 3: the Chiefs it's fun to bet on history, and they
• 9:44
  Speaker 3: have it all right now. But for this team, if
• 9:48
  Speaker 3: you like doing what I like doing, betting divisional teams together,
• 9:50
  Speaker 3: who's gonna win their division? This is gonna be everyone's
• 9:53
  Speaker 3: anchor team. Like everyone's gonna throw this team in the
• 9:55
  Speaker 3: end of their parlays, right, They're gonna throw them with
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: the Eagles and maybe the Bills or then the Eagles
• 9:59
  Speaker 3: and the forty nine ers, Like, this is the team
• 10:01
  Speaker 3: that you're just gonna put in on all your bets,
• 10:02
  Speaker 3: just because in what world do they not win it?
• 10:05
  Speaker 3: Even if he goes down it is Carson Wentz right,
• 10:07
  Speaker 3: say something horrible happens he goes down in week eight?
• 10:10
  Speaker 3: Do we still we're gonna talk to these other teams?
• 10:11
  Speaker 3: Do we still have any faith in these other teams
• 10:13
  Speaker 3: to get the ten wins? It's hard to see it
• 10:15
  Speaker 3: right where this team they're just so complete, I mean
• 10:18
  Speaker 3: even defensively. We even really talked about but Spags is
• 10:22
  Speaker 3: like the guy, right, We've seen it time and time
• 10:24
  Speaker 3: again when he needs to be that guy, he really is.
• 10:27
  Speaker 3: So it's just it's unfair. Not only do they have
• 10:29
  Speaker 3: the best quarterback, but they have such good coaching on
• 10:32
  Speaker 3: the offense and defensive side. It's just it's the perfect thing.
• 10:35
  Speaker 3: So I think Freeman nailed it. It's like we were
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: going through different errors right now we're in the middle
• 10:39
  Speaker 3: of the Mahomes era and we all know it, like
• 10:41
  Speaker 3: we're seeing something so special, so unique, and you just
• 10:44
  Speaker 3: you can't. You can fight it all you want, but
• 10:46
  Speaker 3: I wouldn't fight it with my money. It's like, just
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: just bet them at minus two hundred division, bet them
• 10:50
  Speaker 3: the over win total. But yeah, it's it's it's sadly
• 10:54
  Speaker 3: is a boring division this year. Chat, I just can't
• 10:56
  Speaker 3: go any other way.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: Well, it's so interesting, right because they're been a few
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: years in the past where we have wanted to fade
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs. We have wanted to fade Mahomes. We didn't
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: think they had the receivers they needed, they were rebuilding
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: their offensive line. But Mahomes is so good and elevates
• 11:18
  Speaker 1: so much of that offense. Then it kind of doesn't
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: matter what they have between Andy Reid and his creativity
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: and Mahomes and Kelsey by the way, they put themselves
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: in a really good position. You said something that I
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: think is really important defensive line. For defense, I'm going
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: to focus on defensive line. We don't give Steve Spagnolo
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: enough credit, right because he is building a Hall of
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: fame resume as a defensive coordinator. In a way that
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: this defense always plays better than its ranking late in
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: games A, late in the season against top tier opponents.
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: That's when they shine. That's when they are at their best.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: The other team has to have something and the Chiefs
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: find a way to make a stop.
• 12:05
  Speaker 2: Overall, last year.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: The defense ranked second in the league in scoring, fourth
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: in total defense, and first in sacrate. And that last
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: one is largely because of Chris Jones, who is just
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: so freaking dominant. For that reason alone, you want to
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: be betting on the Chiefs because of how good they
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: have gotten defensively.
• 12:26
  Speaker 3: Simon, Yeah, I totally agree with all that.
• 12:31
  Speaker 2: I like when we all agree.
• 12:33
  Speaker 4: One thing to add really quickly Simon mentioned here, by
• 12:36
  Speaker 4: the way, I.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: Like when we all agree we're ready to move on
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: Freeman's got to come in over the top or right. Sure,
• 12:42
  Speaker 1: he's got something he's going to say that will annoy
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: us and make us feel differently.
• 12:46
  Speaker 4: No, it won't. Just more affirmation. To back up what
• 12:50
  Speaker 4: Timon said about the win total with the Chiefs, Andy
• 12:53
  Speaker 4: Reid is nine to two to the over on his
• 12:55
  Speaker 4: win totals with the Chiefs. Just absolutely unred like one
• 12:59
  Speaker 4: of the most consistent bets that you can make in
• 13:02
  Speaker 4: the offseason. Ear in and ear out Andy Reid going
• 13:04
  Speaker 4: over his win total.
• 13:06
  Speaker 2: That's right.
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: You know why, I think we can all agree Andy Reid,
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: when he wins one more super Bowl will go down.
• 13:16
  Speaker 2: As the greatest coach in NFL history.
• 13:20
  Speaker 4: Honestly, I think that's accurate.
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: Look at that, Simon, you were laughing at me.
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: I need two or three more. I just I can't
• 13:29
  Speaker 3: get there yet because I just have so much respect
• 13:30
  Speaker 3: for Bill.
• 13:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, but if Andy Reid wins six Super Bowls with
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: Patrick Mahons, which is not out of the question, there's
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: no reason to believe that he can't go down. What
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: he did offensively is as brilliant as what Bill Belichick
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: did defensively.
• 13:44
  Speaker 3: But I see, I disagree just because we always say
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: it's the offense will always be easier. The league is
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: built to cater to the offense. That's why the Belichick
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: thing just blows my mind. Again. People forget that Rams
• 13:56
  Speaker 3: super Bowl with the Patriots. That was all Belichick. Like,
• 13:59
  Speaker 3: there's just he had his early years and even in
• 14:01
  Speaker 3: his later years he still had his fastball. But you know,
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: it was just so ugly for the last five years. Chad,
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: I'm on an island here trying to defend the guy,
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: and I get it. But yeah, it's hard to disagree
• 14:11
  Speaker 3: with you. If he gets the six Super Bowls, that's
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: a real conversation.
• 14:14
  Speaker 4: Look, Belichick, Belichick is already out there. He's like retired,
• 14:17
  Speaker 4: he's dating twenty year olds. He's not interested in coming
• 14:20
  Speaker 4: back to the NFL anymore. Andy Reid, by the time
• 14:23
  Speaker 4: he retires, he actually might have more wins on his
• 14:26
  Speaker 4: resume than Belichick does. Yeah, and so if he's the
• 14:29
  Speaker 4: winning this head coach and he racks up another one
• 14:32
  Speaker 4: to two Super Bowls with Mahomes, and you add in
• 14:34
  Speaker 4: the fact that Belichick never had success without Brady. Andy
• 14:38
  Speaker 4: Reid has had success making quarterbacks better like wherever he's been,
• 14:44
  Speaker 4: Like Andy Reid at that point would be the greatest
• 14:46
  Speaker 4: NFL head coach.
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: Listen, you say Bill Belichick had that win against the Rams.
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: I say Andy Reid had mini mouse with mustard or
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: whatever that play was called. You know, at the end
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: of the game. All right, our next up. This is
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: where it gets interesting. LA Chargers.
• 15:07
  Speaker 2: According to the.
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: Strength of schedule, which is the Vegas version of strength
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: of schedule, which is adding up the win totals projected
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: win totals according to book makers that the Chargers will face,
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: they have the second easiest schedule AT's win the super
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: Bowl forty five to one odds to win the Division
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: three twenty season win total eight and a half. So, like,
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: this is a middling team right now. We're not gonna
• 15:37
  Speaker 1: sugarcoat it. Their offensive line middle of the packet twelfth.
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: Everyone likes for Sean Slater, everyone's excited about joe Alt,
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: but we don't really know a lot about this offensive line.
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: Their d line rank has really drops twenty second. According
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: to PFF. You got Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack who
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: are older and in too often for this unit to
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: be reliable. Friedman, we had Bill Barnwell on don't be offended.
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: He came on before you did. He said he loved
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: this team for next year. I do think we're making
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: a little bit of mistake if we discount this team
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: for this season as an over win total team. And
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: I can make an upside argument, but I want to
• 16:22
  Speaker 1: hear your reaction to what I'm saying.
• 16:24
  Speaker 4: All right, Chad, I don't know if you remember last
• 16:26
  Speaker 4: year I came on, we talked about the NFC West, Yes,
• 16:30
  Speaker 4: and Simon was talking about the Rams and how you
• 16:32
  Speaker 4: could bet them maybe to win the division. I said,
• 16:35
  Speaker 4: you should bet them to win the super Bowl. All right,
• 16:37
  Speaker 4: I'm gonna say the same stupid thing right now about
• 16:40
  Speaker 4: the Chargers. I love them forty five to one to
• 16:44
  Speaker 4: win the Super Bowl. Have you guys ever heard of
• 16:48
  Speaker 4: Peyton Manning? That guy knows Baul. I'm just gonna say
• 16:50
  Speaker 4: he knows football. He thinks Justin Herbert is a top
• 16:53
  Speaker 4: five NFL quarterback. I think the same thing. And I
• 16:56
  Speaker 4: think Jim Harbaugh coming in based on what he did
• 16:59
  Speaker 4: years ago with the forty nine Ers, based on what
• 17:01
  Speaker 4: he did in Michigan, I think he comes in right
• 17:03
  Speaker 4: now and is probably a top eight NFL head coach,
• 17:07
  Speaker 4: maybe top five.
• 17:09
  Speaker 5: Just the way it feels. I mean, it feels like
• 17:11
  Speaker 5: New Year's Day, you know, it feels like being born,
• 17:13
  Speaker 5: feels like coming out of the womb. You know, it's
• 17:15
  Speaker 5: like you're in there, it's comfortable and it's safe, and
• 17:19
  Speaker 5: now you're out. You're born, bright, chaos, people looking at you,
• 17:24
  Speaker 5: people talking at you, and just feels good to have
• 17:28
  Speaker 5: it happen.
• 17:28
  Speaker 4: There are very few teams that have that type of
• 17:31
  Speaker 4: combination of quarterback and head coach who are both in
• 17:36
  Speaker 4: the top eight at their respective positions. Greg Roman has
• 17:41
  Speaker 4: had success. You maybe don't like what he's done long term,
• 17:45
  Speaker 4: but he's had success quickly turning around offenses and making
• 17:49
  Speaker 4: them better. Harbaugh has had success with Roman in without Roman. Now, Chad,
• 17:54
  Speaker 4: you mentioned Bosa Khalil Mack. Both know a little bit injured,
• 17:58
  Speaker 4: a little bit older. But if they can stay healthy,
• 18:01
  Speaker 4: and if that defense can play just a little bit better,
• 18:03
  Speaker 4: if it can play up to the talent level that
• 18:05
  Speaker 4: it has there with Derwin James Sante, Samuel Junior in
• 18:08
  Speaker 4: the secondary, like that defense could be average, and if
• 18:11
  Speaker 4: you have a really efficient and well managed offense with
• 18:16
  Speaker 4: an average defense like that is enough to get a
• 18:19
  Speaker 4: team into the playoffs, especially when they're playing two teams
• 18:22
  Speaker 4: are going to talk about later, the Broncos and the Raiders.
• 18:26
  Speaker 4: And I think it's worth noting that in the Justin
• 18:29
  Speaker 4: Herbert timeframe with the Chargers, they have always played the
• 18:33
  Speaker 4: Chiefs tight. They are five and two against the spread
• 18:38
  Speaker 4: with Herbert at quarterback against the Chiefs. And so if
• 18:41
  Speaker 4: they can sweep the bottom feeders in their division, if
• 18:45
  Speaker 4: they can still one win against the Chiefs, go five
• 18:48
  Speaker 4: to one in division. You mentioned they have a really
• 18:51
  Speaker 4: easy schedule outside of division. This could actually be a
• 18:55
  Speaker 4: team that I'm not gonna say they're going to win
• 18:57
  Speaker 4: the division, but like they could be, right they are,
• 19:00
  Speaker 4: and a really tough out in the playoffs, and a
• 19:03
  Speaker 4: hardball team that is feeling itself once it gets into
• 19:07
  Speaker 4: the playoffs. That feels like a really dangerous team. So
• 19:10
  Speaker 4: forty five to one, like, I'll just say it's not
• 19:12
  Speaker 4: going to happen. The Chargers are not going to win
• 19:15
  Speaker 4: the super Bowl. But this line is too long. It
• 19:17
  Speaker 4: shouldn't be forty five to one, it should be thirty
• 19:19
  Speaker 4: to one.
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: I don't disagree with that about that being too long.
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: I don't mind the idea of taking a flyer on
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: the Chargers. I do like their over Simon first my bubble.
• 19:34
  Speaker 3: There's nothing I love more Chadan, two guys loving the
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: Chargers in August when Herbert just gotta have a walking
• 19:40
  Speaker 3: boot two days ago. I mean, this is what I
• 19:41
  Speaker 3: live for this team. I've taken a large position on
• 19:44
  Speaker 3: them to be the worst in this division. Actually, it's
• 19:46
  Speaker 3: it's just a classic case. Wow, Hardball's gonna come in,
• 19:50
  Speaker 3: and I just think he's gonna burn it all down.
• 19:51
  Speaker 3: I think he knows it's a team filled with losers,
• 19:54
  Speaker 3: bad draft picks, and he's gonna revet in his own identity.
• 19:57
  Speaker 3: So it's like Joe All is the first step of that.
• 20:00
  Speaker 3: That guy fits his personality perfect. I think he's gonna
• 20:03
  Speaker 3: run the ball so much more than they've ever run
• 20:04
  Speaker 3: in the past. Right, He's gonna take the ball out
• 20:07
  Speaker 3: of Herbert's hands, which sounds stupid, but my mentality is
• 20:10
  Speaker 3: he needs to build this kid back up. This kid's
• 20:11
  Speaker 3: never been properly coached in his entire career. I mean,
• 20:14
  Speaker 3: you just go through it. Even when Kellen Moore was there,
• 20:16
  Speaker 3: he didn't trust Kellen Moore. He's still tried to play
• 20:19
  Speaker 3: hero ball like Herbert couldn't help but try to throw
• 20:21
  Speaker 3: the ball downfield, which I had no problem with because
• 20:23
  Speaker 3: he had Mike Williams and Keenan Allen that's totally gone.
• 20:26
  Speaker 3: Like Joshua Palmer, who I love is a sleeper in
• 20:28
  Speaker 3: fantasy football, that's gonna be his safety valley all season.
• 20:31
  Speaker 3: These other guys, I just don't like Lad McConkie all
• 20:34
  Speaker 3: these other guys. I just don't have faith in these
• 20:35
  Speaker 3: outside receivers where we've had that in the past.
• 20:38
  Speaker 4: Chat.
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: So to me, this team it's gonna be bad, especially
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: if Herbert's already banged up head end of the season,
• 20:44
  Speaker 3: Like it's just already starting off in a bad foot.
• 20:46
  Speaker 3: Did this guy need a training camp with this new
• 20:48
  Speaker 3: offense He's missed two and a half weeks, Like that's
• 20:50
  Speaker 3: a big deal. So to me, it's already starting off wrong.
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: And I get why people are falling in love with
• 20:57
  Speaker 3: the idea of the future, because I'm with Bill, like
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: next year, barn Wall is so right, like this is
• 21:02
  Speaker 3: the team next year. I'd be a buyer on right
• 21:04
  Speaker 3: because I do think he's gonna get rid of a
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: lot of these old guys that are on this team
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: with bad contracts and will kind of be a new
• 21:09
  Speaker 3: team next year. Well this year, it just feels like
• 21:12
  Speaker 3: they're paying for the couple past years, like, you know,
• 21:15
  Speaker 3: messing up in the draft, overpaying guys a shit overpaid.
• 21:18
  Speaker 3: So to me, I get where you guys are coming from.
• 21:20
  Speaker 3: There's so much to be up excited about in the
• 21:21
  Speaker 3: future of this team. I just think it's a year earlier, right,
• 21:24
  Speaker 3: Like the other teams to me are further out along
• 21:26
  Speaker 3: in this division than they are the Broncos.
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: We're going to get to that, but the Broncos are
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: further along the Raiders. The Gardner minshew, all right, we're
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: going to get to it. We're going to get to it,
• 21:37
  Speaker 1: and we've got a special graphic to prove it that.
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: Maybe with the Raiders.
• 21:41
  Speaker 2: You're right.
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: I actually went back and looked at Harbaugh as a
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: coach in his first year with his new teams not
• 21:50
  Speaker 1: always great. Like we've got a vision of Harbaugh coming
• 21:53
  Speaker 1: in and he is immediately turning a team around. And
• 21:58
  Speaker 1: I think he does have an aura and sort of
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: a mysticism about him that we believe every player buys in.
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: He is so enthusiastic, he knows football, He's a football guy.
• 22:09
  Speaker 1: What he has done, whether it was San Diego or Stanford,
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: or the Niners or Michigan, there's a true belief that
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: he's a guy who can make people elevate their play
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: through scheme and through support and through positioning, that they're
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: automatically going to be better. And I think that's what
• 22:34
  Speaker 1: a lot of people are banking on is sort of
• 22:37
  Speaker 1: the mythology of Jim Harbaugh. They have tried to improve
• 22:44
  Speaker 1: their offensive line, they have brought in Greg Roman. They
• 22:47
  Speaker 1: are favored in ten games this year. A team that
• 22:51
  Speaker 1: came in last in the AFC West is favored in
• 22:54
  Speaker 1: ten different games this year. That's how easy their schedule is.
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: So you kind of have to believe that this is
• 23:01
  Speaker 1: a team of at least decent quality with a top
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: five quarterback. And I think we all agree he is
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: a good quarterback. We're not denying that.
• 23:08
  Speaker 2: You gotta believe.
• 23:09
  Speaker 3: I think he's an inconsistent quarterback that's never won a
• 23:11
  Speaker 3: playoff game.
• 23:14
  Speaker 2: Well, Matthew Freeman's Peyton Manning disagrees with.
• 23:16
  Speaker 3: You, and they probably have the same agent. I mean,
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: it was just an Outlandis comment. It's just I didn't
• 23:24
  Speaker 3: want to go into it. Because I was just like,
• 23:26
  Speaker 3: come on, Peyton, you're better than this. But no, I again,
• 23:29
  Speaker 3: this is what people love, the idea of Herbert rather
• 23:32
  Speaker 3: than the results of Herbert. And that's the toughest thing
• 23:34
  Speaker 3: because it's like, oh, just throw it out there. Wins
• 23:36
  Speaker 3: are not a QB stat all right, No one's saying
• 23:38
  Speaker 3: it is. But it's like in his draft alone, Joe
• 23:42
  Speaker 3: Burrow has done something, Jalen Hurts has done something right.
• 23:45
  Speaker 3: Jordan Love in one year has done more than we've
• 23:48
  Speaker 3: seen in six years of Herbert being a starter. So
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: it's just it's just tough for me to get there.
• 23:52
  Speaker 2: Brother Bridman, I can't believe he's coming after you like that.
• 23:58
  Speaker 4: Whatever, Chad, I'm I mean, it pains me to say this.
• 24:01
  Speaker 4: I am aligned with you on this and the wind
• 24:03
  Speaker 4: totals specifically.
• 24:04
  Speaker 3: Is I just want to be Freeman. You know you
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: don't want to be there.
• 24:07
  Speaker 4: I'll be there. Nine point seven is where I have
• 24:10
  Speaker 4: this projected. Wow, you know eight and a half is
• 24:13
  Speaker 4: the total there. So this is one of the few
• 24:16
  Speaker 4: wind totals that I don't mind betting the over on.
• 24:18
  Speaker 4: I think normally win totals that's where I want to
• 24:20
  Speaker 4: be taking unders, and if I like a team, I
• 24:22
  Speaker 4: want to be betting on them to win the Super Bowl,
• 24:24
  Speaker 4: win Division, things like that. But there's such a large
• 24:26
  Speaker 4: discrepancy here between where this line is and where I
• 24:30
  Speaker 4: have my projection that I don't mind betting this in
• 24:32
  Speaker 4: the wind total market as well.
• 24:33
  Speaker 1: I've changed my mind. I'm all over the under. I'm
• 24:39
  Speaker 1: anti I'm anti Herbert on this right now, Let's get
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: to the to the Las Vegas Raiders here, okay, because
• 24:49
  Speaker 1: they're fascinating to me and like it's a team where.
• 24:57
  Speaker 2: They sided.
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: Gardner Minshew is going to be their starting quarterback, and
• 25:05
  Speaker 1: I'm going to get to the strength to schedule and
• 25:07
  Speaker 1: all that kind of stuff, but we that is breaking
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: news and we're dedicated to the news here. So Friedman,
• 25:14
  Speaker 1: give me your take on Gardner Minshew as the starting
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: quarterback over Aiden O'Connell for the Las Vegas Raiders.
• 25:24
  Speaker 4: I mean, I would say it almost doesn't matter. It
• 25:26
  Speaker 4: had to be Gardner Minshew, but this is the worst
• 25:29
  Speaker 4: quarterback duo in the league, and so it almost didn't
• 25:34
  Speaker 4: matter who was the starting quarterback. I think this is
• 25:37
  Speaker 4: going to be a really uninspiring offense, and I absolutely
• 25:42
  Speaker 4: love the under of six and a half on the
• 25:45
  Speaker 4: win total, and I will say, you know, you know,
• 25:50
  Speaker 4: look around at different books for this, but six and
• 25:52
  Speaker 4: a half, I think that number should be like five
• 25:55
  Speaker 4: and a half. Really, I think this is going to
• 25:57
  Speaker 4: be such a bad team. But I will see. I
• 26:00
  Speaker 4: think the offense is going to be funneled pretty exclusively
• 26:04
  Speaker 4: through DeVante Adams, and so if you look at the
• 26:07
  Speaker 4: prop market for him, one thousand point five is his
• 26:10
  Speaker 4: prop number, I think that's too low, even though he's
• 26:14
  Speaker 4: you know, aging going to be thirty two this year.
• 26:16
  Speaker 4: I think he gets a ton of targets and goes
• 26:18
  Speaker 4: over that number for you know, like the fifth time
• 26:20
  Speaker 4: in the past five years, and then Zamir White over
• 26:23
  Speaker 4: seven hundred seventy five point five rushing yards. I think
• 26:27
  Speaker 4: he smashes that because I think it's going to be
• 26:28
  Speaker 4: an offense that whether they're throwing, it's DeVante Adams and
• 26:31
  Speaker 4: then they're running a lot and Zamir White gets a
• 26:34
  Speaker 4: lot of that action. Because I do not believe in
• 26:36
  Speaker 4: Alexander Madison.
• 26:38
  Speaker 2: Alexander Madison, I love that name.
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: The strength to schedule for this team, by the way,
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: ninth Hardest plays to the idea that maybe you need
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: to look at their under with Gardner Minshew as quarterback.
• 26:59
  Speaker 1: I do think look like last year, there's so much
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: hype about Gardner Minshew and what he did with the Colts.
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: Gardner Minshew is more like the guy who played with
• 27:10
  Speaker 1: the Jaguars inconsistently to me than he is the guy
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: who was a savior for the Colts last year, playing
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: in Shane Steichen's offense, who put him in so many
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: positions to succeed. Simon, you clearly loved the Raiders a
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: second ago when I brought up Gardner Minshew, like I said,
• 27:35
  Speaker 1: strength to schedule ninth artist nineteen is their offensive line
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: rank top ten defensive line largely because of Max Crosby,
• 27:44
  Speaker 1: So it's about Gardner Minshew. Do they get over six
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: and a half with Gardner Minshew?
• 27:52
  Speaker 4: Yeah?
• 27:52
  Speaker 3: I love this team. That's some one of my favorite
• 27:53
  Speaker 3: sleeper teams of the year, and it's just simply because
• 27:56
  Speaker 3: people have so much doubt with this team where they're
• 27:58
  Speaker 3: not looking at they're only real weak to me on
• 28:00
  Speaker 3: this team is their quarnerback position. It's like the Colts.
• 28:03
  Speaker 3: The Colts secondary chad is absolutely terrible, but we still
• 28:05
  Speaker 3: bet their upside. I still have the same feeling here
• 28:07
  Speaker 3: with this Raiders team. It's like, yeah, their secondary it's
• 28:10
  Speaker 3: an issue that to me is a big issue. But
• 28:13
  Speaker 3: this team, there's so much many people are going to
• 28:15
  Speaker 3: credit for. I know Chad's not a huge fan of Minshew.
• 28:17
  Speaker 3: I mean, I'll never forget this summer. We're doing a
• 28:19
  Speaker 3: show and I said that if you sent Minshew thirty
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: five years back in the time and he played on
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: the Dallas Cowboys, he too could win six Pro Bowls
• 28:27
  Speaker 3: and make zero All Pros. And Chad was disgusted in that.
• 28:30
  Speaker 3: He's like, no, only Troy Aikman can make six Pro
• 28:33
  Speaker 3: Bowls and zero All Pros behind the best team and
• 28:36
  Speaker 3: of all the nineties. So I just don't think you
• 28:38
  Speaker 3: understand how that Minshew's not as bad as pop perceived.
• 28:40
  Speaker 3: Like he's been on pace with guys like Trevor Lawrence
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: and his career stat numbers, Like he's just as good
• 28:45
  Speaker 3: as these guys who people build up. And it's just
• 28:48
  Speaker 3: because it's Minshew, Like I get where they're coming from.
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: Like you look at this guy on tape and he
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: doesn't look like an NFL starting quarterback. He's small, he's
• 28:55
  Speaker 3: quirky sometimes makes horrible reads. But lastually with the Colts,
• 28:59
  Speaker 3: a lot of this stuff wasn't his fault. I mean,
• 29:00
  Speaker 3: even going back to that last game, but they almost
• 29:02
  Speaker 3: speed Houston. He was one completion away on a fourth
• 29:05
  Speaker 3: down from them being in the scoring position to be Houston. Right,
• 29:08
  Speaker 3: he didn't make that running back drop that ball. That
• 29:09
  Speaker 3: was a good pass. It was a running back that
• 29:11
  Speaker 3: did drop it. So it's like, Minshew, yes, is he inconsistent?
• 29:14
  Speaker 3: I totally agree with that. But what you're failing to
• 29:16
  Speaker 3: see on this offense is this is going to be
• 29:18
  Speaker 3: an old school, twelve personnel offense with arguably one of
• 29:22
  Speaker 3: the most talented tight ends we've ever seen in the
• 29:23
  Speaker 3: history of football coming to the league in Brock Bowers. Like,
• 29:26
  Speaker 3: people don't understand when Nick Saban's talking about you, saying
• 29:30
  Speaker 3: he did there was only two players he feared playing
• 29:32
  Speaker 3: last year. One was Neighbors, who I already told Youoh,
• 29:36
  Speaker 3: I'm obsessed with Neighbors. The next was Bowers, Like, he
• 29:38
  Speaker 3: can't believe how incredibly talented this kid is. And you
• 29:41
  Speaker 3: can run him in every way. You're gonna run him
• 29:42
  Speaker 3: at the fullback, you can split him out a tight end,
• 29:44
  Speaker 3: you can split him out at wide receiver, like this
• 29:47
  Speaker 3: kid is literally the future of the league his type
• 29:50
  Speaker 3: of playing style, like him and Sam Laporta. So to me,
• 29:53
  Speaker 3: they're already hitting on the nail on the head like
• 29:54
  Speaker 3: they're running twelve personnel. They're using brock Bowers in crazy positions.
• 29:57
  Speaker 3: I'm not even talking about Myers, the guy they took
• 29:59
  Speaker 3: last year, who who's another great tight end. And then
• 30:01
  Speaker 3: he mixed in the fact that the wide receiver position
• 30:03
  Speaker 3: is pretty strong. Their offensive line is better than people perceive.
• 30:06
  Speaker 3: I love this offense. Now defensively, check I can't believen
• 30:09
  Speaker 3: bring this up. They have Christian Wilkins, the best, one
• 30:12
  Speaker 3: of the best D tackles all football, came from Miami
• 30:15
  Speaker 3: and joined this team. Max Crosby plus seven hundred to
• 30:17
  Speaker 3: win Defensive Player of the Year. I love that bet.
• 30:19
  Speaker 3: Like I'm I am very very highvily invested in him
• 30:23
  Speaker 3: being Defensive Player of the Year just because he's never
• 30:25
  Speaker 3: had this before. He's never had a guy getting doubles
• 30:27
  Speaker 3: in the middle. Like, it's going to be insane watching
• 30:30
  Speaker 3: this D line now with that, with that kind of setup,
• 30:32
  Speaker 3: So I get the hesitation, like no one wants to
• 30:35
  Speaker 3: say they're putting, you know, five figures on Minshew and
• 30:38
  Speaker 3: the Raiders over win total. But I am like, I
• 30:41
  Speaker 3: love this team, and I think Pierce's Tomlin two point zero.
• 30:44
  Speaker 3: He's a motivated or of men. Like last year that
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: team should have fell apart, and he pulled them all
• 30:49
  Speaker 3: together and had some incredible wins down the stretch, and
• 30:51
  Speaker 3: I think that carries over this season. So this is
• 30:53
  Speaker 3: a team that, yeah, I think their second best in
• 30:56
  Speaker 3: this division right now, and I think Minshew is heavily,
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: heavily underrated by public perception. And there's that stat I
• 31:03
  Speaker 3: was looking for. Look at that graphic, Chad.
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: Let's all right, so we're getting super fancy in our
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: show here today. Gardner Minshew in his years as a
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: starting quarterback Versus Trevor Lawrence in his years as a
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: starting quarterback Friedman Gardner Minshew six point nine two yards
• 31:23
  Speaker 1: per attempt, Trevor Lawrence six point seventy three yards. Touchdowns,
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: touch on percentage four point two percent for Gardner Minshew,
• 31:34
  Speaker 1: three point three percent for Trevor Lawrence. QBR eighty nine
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: point three for Gardner Minshew, eighty five for Trevor Lawrence.
• 31:45
  Speaker 1: Interception percentage one point seven percent for Gardner Minshew, two
• 31:49
  Speaker 1: point two percent for Trevor Lawrence. Didn't Trevor Lawrence just
• 31:52
  Speaker 1: get like one hundred and fifty MILI guaranteed.
• 31:55
  Speaker 3: I think you got two hundred million, brother.
• 31:56
  Speaker 1: For basically mid as the kids say, mid stats and
• 32:04
  Speaker 1: the promise of potential because he's got pretty great hair
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: and a good arm and had one epic comeback against
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: the guy Simon Hunter doesn't even think is a very
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: good quarterback in Justin Herbert. And this guy's got a
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: bag because Doug Peterson is his coach, and Gardner Minshew
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: is bouncing around as a journeyman and he's got the
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: better stats as a starter than Trevor Lawrence.
• 32:30
  Speaker 4: Come on, Freeman, Yeah, what you're not saying is that
• 32:35
  Speaker 4: Trevor Lawrence, like for a third of his career stats
• 32:39
  Speaker 4: has the stink of Urban Meyer all over him.
• 32:42
  Speaker 3: That's not counting Urban Meyers. Year we threw that out,
• 32:45
  Speaker 3: you did, Yeah the last years? Look at that.
• 32:48
  Speaker 4: Oh so now I've now I've been dunked on. But
• 32:51
  Speaker 4: also twenty twenty three, Trevor Lawrence was injured, Like, I
• 32:55
  Speaker 4: think it's worth taking that into account. But yeah, Trevor
• 32:58
  Speaker 4: Lawrence has disappointed. That doesn't mean that Gardner Minshew is
• 33:02
  Speaker 4: the answer for the Raiders. Like part of this is
• 33:05
  Speaker 4: I have no faith in Luke Getzi as the offensive coordinator.
• 33:08
  Speaker 4: Like to what Simon said, they are going to think
• 33:11
  Speaker 4: about this. They are going to run a very antiquated
• 33:15
  Speaker 4: two tight end system. And even if you think that
• 33:18
  Speaker 4: brock Bauers is the future of the league, talking about, oh,
• 33:22
  Speaker 4: this guy so versatile, we can line him up at
• 33:24
  Speaker 4: full back, talking about that is almost the sign of like,
• 33:27
  Speaker 4: wait a minute, this offense could be in big trouble.
• 33:30
  Speaker 4: If you're thinking of two tight ends as the solution
• 33:33
  Speaker 4: to a run heavy offense quarterbacked by Gardner Minshew like this,
• 33:38
  Speaker 4: this could be a massive disaster. If they win games,
• 33:43
  Speaker 4: they barely win games, and if they lose games, they
• 33:46
  Speaker 4: get absolutely boat raced with that kind of offense that
• 33:49
  Speaker 4: they have. And I know in the second half of
• 33:51
  Speaker 4: the season their defense looked a lot better, but like
• 33:55
  Speaker 4: they were also playing some pretty subpar quarterbacks for a
• 33:59
  Speaker 4: lot of that stretch, So I don't want to put
• 34:01
  Speaker 4: too much weight on like what could have been just
• 34:04
  Speaker 4: kind of like randomness in the second half of the season.
• 34:07
  Speaker 4: This is a bad team, Simon, a very bad team.
• 34:13
  Speaker 3: I guess Patrick Mahomes is just some random quarterback that
• 34:15
  Speaker 3: they beat on Christmas Day. That's the one game that's
• 34:19
  Speaker 3: a big game, though it sparked demand to win another
• 34:21
  Speaker 3: Super Bowl.
• 34:22
  Speaker 1: Well, look, this is where it gets interesting, right, Like
• 34:25
  Speaker 1: is it one game that was an anomaly? Is it
• 34:28
  Speaker 1: the one game that proves they of what they can
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: be with Antonio Pierce as coach.
• 34:36
  Speaker 2: I did not look freeman.
• 34:40
  Speaker 3: I Chad hated this team two months ago. This is
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: a lot of work for me to try to spin
• 34:44
  Speaker 3: them here.
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: I did not know Simon was going to come this
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: strong on the Raiders. This was the first we've talked
• 34:50
  Speaker 1: about it. I'm shocked to get this feedback from him
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: right now. I'm shocked to hear these five figures and.
• 34:57
  Speaker 3: You see, we're you're going to do week one chat.
• 34:58
  Speaker 3: It's about to get real ross, real quick. Plus three
• 35:02
  Speaker 3: against the Chargers.
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: Well, look, if they're on the road, I can take that.
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: Or actually, if they're if they're the home dog.
• 35:10
  Speaker 3: No, no, they're on the road. Plus three, all right,
• 35:12
  Speaker 3: Well I'll talk.
• 35:15
  Speaker 1: I feel like we're gonna find five games we life
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: better than that.
• 35:19
  Speaker 2: Game the Freedman. He makes a convincing case.
• 35:24
  Speaker 4: Does he don't? I don't think so. His case is, oh,
• 35:28
  Speaker 4: this two tight end offense is going to be awesome
• 35:30
  Speaker 4: based on what we might see out of a rookie
• 35:33
  Speaker 4: tight end that that.
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: Never works, Simon.
• 35:37
  Speaker 3: He makes a case I'm bringing up because you never
• 35:39
  Speaker 3: even mentioned him. You're just talking about Devanta Adams. It's like, dude,
• 35:42
  Speaker 3: you're forgetting about Brock Bowers here first round pick. I
• 35:45
  Speaker 3: just I know you don't watch a lot of college football,
• 35:47
  Speaker 3: bro when this dude's that guy.
• 35:48
  Speaker 4: Look, look, look, I I know about Brock Bowers.
• 35:51
  Speaker 3: I hope he makes me a little nervous.
• 35:54
  Speaker 4: I didn't mention him because I don't think his prop
• 35:56
  Speaker 4: number is especially betible. But I did think that DeVante
• 35:59
  Speaker 4: Adam has a battable prop number.
• 36:02
  Speaker 3: That's fair.
• 36:03
  Speaker 1: Can I interest anybody in the Chargers over eight and
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: a half?
• 36:06
  Speaker 4: Yes?
• 36:08
  Speaker 3: Take the ultimated line under six and a half. Chargers
• 36:10
  Speaker 3: people have fun with it.
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: Oh my god, Now it's just Freeman. Now it just
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: feels like the personal again cooking. All right, So Simon
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: loves the Raiders. Honest to god, this is the first
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: I've heard you have this stronger opinion on the Raiders,
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: and it feels like one of the stronger opinions you've
• 36:28
  Speaker 1: had for any of the division previews that we've done.
• 36:32
  Speaker 1: So it makes me want to ask you right now,
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: in your sort of pantheon of futures bets season win
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: totals bets, where do the Raiders stand in terms of
• 36:45
  Speaker 1: the amount of money put down versus the other bets?
• 36:48
  Speaker 3: I mean, I have I definitely have three times the
• 36:51
  Speaker 3: amount on the Chiefs to win this division. Like that's
• 36:54
  Speaker 3: definitely my biggest bet. I mean, that's just the safest.
• 36:56
  Speaker 3: I got no issue locking up my money for seven
• 36:59
  Speaker 3: months on the chief Yefs. It's that's a lot of
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: harder pill to swallow when you're talking the Raiders. And
• 37:04
  Speaker 3: like we said, Minshew, right, even though I'm getting the
• 37:06
  Speaker 3: guys back here, it's like everything Freeman said is true. Man,
• 37:08
  Speaker 3: the wheels could fall off this by week seven and
• 37:10
  Speaker 3: I look like an idiot, But I just love the
• 37:12
  Speaker 3: way this teams set up and how they're just being
• 37:14
  Speaker 3: doubted by everybody except the guys in Vegas. Like we
• 37:17
  Speaker 3: talked months ago, I told you don't take this under
• 37:19
  Speaker 3: because you were like talking about ticking their underwin told
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: and I said, listen, all the guys in Vegas I'm
• 37:23
  Speaker 3: talking to they love this team as a sleeper team.
• 37:25
  Speaker 3: And the more I've looked into, the more I've researched it,
• 37:28
  Speaker 3: it works out. It's like this team does have really
• 37:31
  Speaker 3: good pieces to their defense is not as bad as
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: people perceive them to be, even though I do agree
• 37:35
  Speaker 3: that their secondary does of question marks. But yeah, chat
• 37:37
  Speaker 3: this team and the next team were talking about. These
• 37:39
  Speaker 3: are two teams that unfortunately that the word is out
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: on Denver. But a month ago when I was betting
• 37:45
  Speaker 3: them at the sportsbook, no one was going there betting
• 37:48
  Speaker 3: the Denver team. Same with the Vegas team. So these
• 37:50
  Speaker 3: are two teams that definitely are professional against public perception.
• 37:54
  Speaker 4: Gotta say, gotta say, what a surprise that the guys
• 37:57
  Speaker 4: in Vegas like the team in Vegas. I never would
• 38:00
  Speaker 4: have anticipated that.
• 38:02
  Speaker 3: These are like seven year old men. You think they
• 38:03
  Speaker 3: give a fuck about the Raiders in Vegas. They don't
• 38:06
  Speaker 3: care about that.
• 38:06
  Speaker 4: Right, It is in the atmosphere. And one thing I
• 38:10
  Speaker 4: will say, like, okay, is it possible to say anything
• 38:14
  Speaker 4: about kind of like the market in general. I know
• 38:16
  Speaker 4: that there's one specific sports book that you know is
• 38:19
  Speaker 4: attached to this show. But I'll just say generally, there
• 38:23
  Speaker 4: is the big domestic sports books. There are some that
• 38:27
  Speaker 4: are not in Nevada. There's one that is the one
• 38:31
  Speaker 4: that is in Nevada has a lot of liability that
• 38:35
  Speaker 4: is built up on the Raiders. The other domestic books
• 38:38
  Speaker 4: that aren't in Nevada aren't taking nearly as much Raiders money.
• 38:43
  Speaker 4: Like that is kind of the sign people in Vegas
• 38:46
  Speaker 4: are betting on Vegas.
• 38:50
  Speaker 3: Yeah, those people aren't. I mean, not all the people
• 38:52
  Speaker 3: live in Vegas, professionals that you know that right.
• 38:54
  Speaker 4: Well, yes, but what I'm saying is like saying the
• 38:57
  Speaker 4: guys in Vegas are betting on Vegas isn't really.
• 39:00
  Speaker 3: The guys in Cleveland. Like I'm just talking about pros bro.
• 39:03
  Speaker 3: I'm not talking about the actual guys in Vegas. It's
• 39:05
  Speaker 3: just this thing we say it here. Don't don't look
• 39:07
  Speaker 3: too into it.
• 39:09
  Speaker 2: Okay, it's not a literal interpretation. It's wise guys, the
• 39:14
  Speaker 2: guys in Vagae.
• 39:14
  Speaker 4: Well then you could just say, sharps. If you are
• 39:16
  Speaker 4: saying the guys in Vegas, that could easily be read
• 39:19
  Speaker 4: as a literal statement, because that's what you're saying. Most
• 39:22
  Speaker 4: people say sharps.
• 39:24
  Speaker 3: Not I refuse to say that word.
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: All right, I do want to talk about the Broncos,
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: because look, this team, I think we all believe they
• 39:35
  Speaker 1: were kind of a shit show at the end of
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: last year. Then they drafted bow Knicks, who you could
• 39:40
  Speaker 1: telegraph that Sean Payton loved this guy and that he
• 39:43
  Speaker 1: was going to be the one of all the quarterbacks
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: getting drafted. It has been a constant conversation. Bo Nicks
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: has performed very well in the preseason. People have been surprised. Again,
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: it's preseason. We're not getting too hyped up about bow Knicks.
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: Three hundred to one to win the Super Bowl, eighteen
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: to one to win the division. That is double the
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: odds of the Raiders.
• 40:09
  Speaker 2: At nine to one.
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: Five and a half is the season win total. All right, Simon,
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: we know how you feel about the Raiders. You've already
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: teased that there is some interest in buying into the Broncos.
• 40:22
  Speaker 2: Make your case.
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: Make your case, and Freeman, I hope you're fucking taking
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: notes because I know you're gonna want to go the
• 40:28
  Speaker 1: other way.
• 40:30
  Speaker 3: Yeah, it's just the fact that you could have got
• 40:34
  Speaker 3: him a twenty to one Bone Mix. You know what
• 40:36
  Speaker 3: were that three weeks ago to be offensive rookie of
• 40:39
  Speaker 3: the year. It sucks that that's gone now check because
• 40:41
  Speaker 3: it's the secret tower, right And I looked at I
• 40:43
  Speaker 3: didn't give it on the show. I bet him and
• 40:44
  Speaker 3: I bet JJ, which you know, even if I didn't
• 40:47
  Speaker 3: believe JJ was gonna be the best player, the best rookie,
• 40:50
  Speaker 3: the value was just too long, Like it was just
• 40:52
  Speaker 3: too much respect given to the top two guys, and
• 40:54
  Speaker 3: Williams and Daniels got luck. I didn't give out JJ
• 40:56
  Speaker 3: on the show because obviously he got hurt, and that's
• 40:58
  Speaker 3: just that's a dead bet. Now the flip side bon Knicks,
• 41:01
  Speaker 3: if you still want to bet it, I don't hate it,
• 41:04
  Speaker 3: but the value is obviously gone at this point. Like
• 41:07
  Speaker 3: the hype Chad just said it, it's just too much.
• 41:09
  Speaker 3: People are going crazy because you want what nine for
• 41:11
  Speaker 3: ten with that passing touchdown in a preseason game, which
• 41:14
  Speaker 3: again he looked good, but it's like, don't overreact too
• 41:17
  Speaker 3: much to it. It's it is vanilla. And if you
• 41:19
  Speaker 3: know anything about bone Knicks, he can look incredible for
• 41:22
  Speaker 3: a quarter and then completely throw three picks in the
• 41:25
  Speaker 3: next quarter. Like that is the boon Nicks experience, Like
• 41:28
  Speaker 3: that's just always been his graft about him. It's just
• 41:31
  Speaker 3: an inconsistent guy. The hope is the reason I'm positive
• 41:34
  Speaker 3: this team in betting this over is because he's with
• 41:36
  Speaker 3: to me, one of the smartest offensive minds in all
• 41:38
  Speaker 3: football in Sean Payton. And it's like, if he just
• 41:40
  Speaker 3: listens to Sean Payton, right, he does not go out
• 41:43
  Speaker 3: and do crazy bon Knicks thing. He just stays within
• 41:45
  Speaker 3: the offense, follows his coach every week, coaching him up
• 41:48
  Speaker 3: on what to do play by play. There is a
• 41:51
  Speaker 3: world here where this team get the six seven wins,
• 41:53
  Speaker 3: like five and a half their win total. It feels right,
• 41:56
  Speaker 3: But I like the over because I just have him
• 41:57
  Speaker 3: at six wins. So to me, this is a team
• 42:00
  Speaker 3: that I don't think defensively and offensive they'll be as
• 42:03
  Speaker 3: bad as they were last year because it felt like
• 42:05
  Speaker 3: that team had so much drama chad behind the scenes.
• 42:07
  Speaker 3: They kind of gave up right at one point where
• 42:10
  Speaker 3: like we know they kind of have players, right, they
• 42:11
  Speaker 3: aren't that team that lost by seventy points to Miami, Right,
• 42:15
  Speaker 3: there is a middle of their ground.
• 42:17
  Speaker 4: So to me, bow.
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: Knicks it's not something I'm heavily invested in, Like I'm
• 42:21
  Speaker 3: more invested in the Raiders in this Chiefs team, but
• 42:24
  Speaker 3: it's a team that I liked. They're over because I
• 42:25
  Speaker 3: just think Champagne is such a good coach. It's like,
• 42:27
  Speaker 3: I just can't see another season of them only getting
• 42:30
  Speaker 3: five or four wins. Like it's just there's too many
• 42:33
  Speaker 3: questions there that I'm not giving them out the you know,
• 42:36
  Speaker 3: shock the world to be the second this division with
• 42:38
  Speaker 3: bon Nicks. But it's like, I do believe offensively, defensively,
• 42:41
  Speaker 3: they'll be improved when they were last year, and last
• 42:42
  Speaker 3: year they were what a three four win team, So
• 42:45
  Speaker 3: it's like, you know, not shocking to think they can
• 42:46
  Speaker 3: get two more wins after such a disaster year last year.
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: Eighth hardest strength of schedule A Lion is fifteenth. Not
• 42:57
  Speaker 1: really anything to say about it, nah, thirty first according
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: to Pro Football Focused the Best Edition, John Franklin, Myers
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: from the New York Jets goes from being expendable with
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: the Jets to being the best defensive lineman with the Broncos.
• 43:19
  Speaker 2: Yeah it's not pretty, Friedman, talk to me.
• 43:24
  Speaker 4: I have this projected at five point seven so like
• 43:26
  Speaker 4: right in line with the win total market of five
• 43:29
  Speaker 4: and a half. But to echo Simon's point, Nicks is
• 43:33
  Speaker 4: really intriguing. I don't think he has a chance to
• 43:36
  Speaker 4: win Offensive Rookie of the Year if the Broncos are
• 43:41
  Speaker 4: in that five and a half win range. But the
• 43:43
  Speaker 4: thing is, I'm assuming he's going to start in week one,
• 43:46
  Speaker 4: and that makes him, I think, very live to lead
• 43:49
  Speaker 4: all of the rookies in passing yardage, and there are
• 43:52
  Speaker 4: some props that you can bet in that, and he's
• 43:56
  Speaker 4: not the leader in that market, like he trails Williams
• 43:59
  Speaker 4: and and Jayden Daniels by a pretty healthy margin in
• 44:03
  Speaker 4: that market. So I would be looking to bet him
• 44:06
  Speaker 4: in that regard because I think if he's starting week
• 44:09
  Speaker 4: one in terms of his passing production, because he has
• 44:12
  Speaker 4: a Simon said, like one of the best offensive minds
• 44:15
  Speaker 4: guiding him, in Sean Payton, he could lead all of
• 44:18
  Speaker 4: the rookies and passing yards especially because this defense is
• 44:22
  Speaker 4: not good. They do have a hard strength of schedule
• 44:25
  Speaker 4: and so they might need to throw the rock a
• 44:27
  Speaker 4: decent amount, and so I could see bo Nicks having
• 44:30
  Speaker 4: a pretty good year statistically even if this offense, you know,
• 44:35
  Speaker 4: doesn't really blow up, and even if this team in
• 44:38
  Speaker 4: general still kind of disappoints and is you know, on
• 44:42
  Speaker 4: this subpar side.
• 44:44
  Speaker 2: I like that idea.
• 44:46
  Speaker 3: That's fat, that's a really yeah, that's more fun.
• 44:48
  Speaker 1: That's break that down right, and it makes sense, right,
• 44:53
  Speaker 1: Like the Bears could be competitive, and so it's very
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: possible they do want to run the ball a little
• 44:59
  Speaker 1: bit more and be more conservative, especially with their coaching staff.
• 45:05
  Speaker 2: Sean Payton will let it rip.
• 45:07
  Speaker 1: And if he feels like he has a guy who
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: can execute his offense, even if it's dink and dunk,
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: ten yard slants, screens, things that Drew Brees was so
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: good at that, he feels like he might be able
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: to get the next generation of out of bo Nicks.
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: He's going to he he's a high risk, you know,
• 45:25
  Speaker 1: play caller. So that's a really good idea.
• 45:29
  Speaker 4: Yeah, five to one. That's where I put it in
• 45:31
  Speaker 4: the bet tracker at Fantasy Life. It's still available at
• 45:34
  Speaker 4: plus four fifty and I still like it at that number.
• 45:38
  Speaker 1: Good, all right, Freeman, I feel like I know where
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: Simon stands on his best bets for this division. Chiefs
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: five to one win the Super Bowl.
• 45:51
  Speaker 2: Chiefs. You know, minus whatever to win the division.
• 45:55
  Speaker 3: I think it's up to like two thirty.
• 45:57
  Speaker 2: Yeah, it's like my yeah, minus two thirty to win
• 46:01
  Speaker 2: the division.
• 46:01
  Speaker 3: Yeah, and.
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: Inappropriate amount on the Raiders over six and a half
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: and probably a little bit touch less on the Chargers
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: under eight and a half. Give me your favorite AFC
• 46:17
  Speaker 1: West bet.
• 46:19
  Speaker 4: So the favorite is forty five to one Chargers to
• 46:23
  Speaker 4: win the Super Bowl. I know it's ridiculous, not going
• 46:26
  Speaker 4: to happen, it's still my favorite. And I will say, like,
• 46:29
  Speaker 4: if I had to have like ancillary favorite bets, I
• 46:32
  Speaker 4: will be with Simon five to one on the Chiefs
• 46:35
  Speaker 4: to win the Super Bowl. I like that one, and
• 46:38
  Speaker 4: then I would just kind of put this earmark of
• 46:41
  Speaker 4: anytime this season. The Chiefs are underdogs. If it happens,
• 46:45
  Speaker 4: just bet them. I don't need any other information on that, Like,
• 46:50
  Speaker 4: just bet them in that situation if.
• 46:51
  Speaker 3: You want to bet early lines. They are one game
• 46:54
  Speaker 3: underdog against the forty nine Ers on the road. I believe.
• 46:58
  Speaker 3: So you could if you want to take up a
• 47:00
  Speaker 3: position right now, you can. I mean, obviously you can't
• 47:02
  Speaker 3: get that much down, but still, if you want to
• 47:04
  Speaker 3: get it now, Freeman's right, you can get them as
• 47:05
  Speaker 3: a dog all right.
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, the Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
• 47:11
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• 47:52
  Speaker 1: want to thank our good friend to Nemesis Matthew Friedman
• 47:56
  Speaker 1: from Matthew Berry's Fantasy Life coming on the show today.
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: Simon and I will return with our next episode of
• 48:04
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• 48:08
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• 48:12
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