Latest / The House Never Wins / NFL Week 8 2026 Picks: NBA Cup Bets, Futures and a Full Rapid-Fire Board | The House Never Wins #115

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NFL Week 8 2026 Picks: NBA Cup Bets, Futures and a Full Rapid-Fire Board | The House Never Wins #115 · The House Never Wins

• 0:00
  - Episode one fifteen of the House Never Wins,
• 0:03
  - your weekly sports trading podcast.
• 0:06
  - I am Matthew Ross, your host.
• 0:08
  - We are brought to you by t s
• 0:10
  - m x dot I o, and our COO
• 0:13
  - once again
• 0:14
  - joining us this week, Dan Nidalco. How are
• 0:17
  - you doing, Dan?
• 0:18
  - I'm doing well, Matt. How are you doing?
• 0:20
  - I'm well. I like the, I like the,
• 0:23
  - jersey. It's very sporty. It kinda it kinda
• 0:25
  - hurts to wear it because it's, bygone better
• 0:28
  - days and not a great showing in Paris
• 0:31
  - this weekend, this next weekend. So We will
• 0:33
  - we will get to that momentarily, the Saints.
• 0:35
  - Yes. A reminder that the house never wins.
• 0:38
  - Of course, you're, watching us on YouTube, but
• 0:40
  - all... Also on the, all major
• 0:43
  - podcast platforms.
• 0:45
  - And the Discord link is, in the description
• 0:47
  - of every
• 0:49
  - episode. So, again, we are brought to you
• 0:52
  - by tsmx.org,
• 0:54
  - and it is a
• 0:55
  - different different platform than the sportsbooks.
• 0:59
  - Dan talked a little bit about that in
• 1:01
  - episode number one fourteen. You can also go
• 1:04
  - back and and hear kind of the detailed,
• 1:07
  - explanation
• 1:08
  - on what you're missing out on. It really
• 1:10
  - is the peer to peer betting platform. Now,
• 1:14
  - Dan,
• 1:15
  - how's it been for the last week? Are
• 1:17
  - we are we starting to build that community?
• 1:20
  - Yeah. We're starting to build that community, and
• 1:21
  - that's why anybody listening, you'll wanna jump in,
• 1:24
  - grab the Discord link, head over to Discord
• 1:26
  - because we've got open orders channels. We'll get
• 1:29
  - your orders matched.
• 1:30
  - We give out free release new features. We're
• 1:33
  - launching new features every week. We're kinda hot
• 1:35
  - off the presses right now, so we're really
• 1:37
  - looking to build up that community.
• 1:39
  - You know, obviously here, people are making orders,
• 1:43
  - being the bookie, taking those orders,
• 1:46
  - just, you know, getting rid of the bookmaker
• 1:48
  - in between.
• 1:49
  - So we will match your orders. We've got
• 1:51
  - concierge, customer service,
• 1:54
  - and we're... The team is pretty much there
• 1:55
  - available anytime a day to chat as well.
• 1:58
  - So, yeah, going well and hot off the
• 2:00
  - presses. So it's... I got that new car
• 2:01
  - smell.
• 2:03
  - Well, the new car smell for me is
• 2:04
  - no big. That's the only thing you need
• 2:06
  - to need to digest if you're better.
• 2:09
  - So be sure to check that out. Now
• 2:11
  - some of this is also painful too because,
• 2:13
  - you know, we say the house never wins
• 2:15
  - because of t s m,
• 2:17
  - x dot or... Dot I o. But but,
• 2:20
  - we do make picks on the show here,
• 2:22
  - and not all of them hit, and that
• 2:23
  - relates to Dan's shirt.
• 2:25
  - Maybe I was influenced
• 2:26
  - by Dan's heart. I don't know. But the
• 2:29
  - Saints were three and a half,
• 2:31
  - point dogs,
• 2:32
  - in a home game
• 2:34
  - in Paris,
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  - last week.
• 2:37
  - The Steelers prevailed. They won by six. It
• 2:39
  - was the under, of course, at 16,
• 2:41
  - 10 was the, the final score. Not a
• 2:44
  - pretty game.
• 2:45
  - Not a pretty game at all.
• 2:47
  - And watching that game, the Steelers could have
• 2:50
  - been up 21 more points on top of
• 2:51
  - the 16 they had because the Saints looked
• 2:54
  - uncomfortable.
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  - The defense was awful.
• 2:59
  - The offense was
• 3:01
  - in disarray,
• 3:02
  - dropped passes, just not a good look overall.
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  - Also, it seemed like Pittsburgh's,
• 3:09
  - home was Paris, but, hey, what do I
• 3:11
  - know?
• 3:12
  - Oh, yeah.
• 3:13
  - Yeah. Well, judging by the Aaron Rodgers postgame,
• 3:16
  - it really isn't home for them, but that's
• 3:18
  - another story.
• 3:20
  - Alright. Elsewhere,
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  - we, you know, we talked about a couple
• 3:23
  - of teams to win the NBA title this
• 3:25
  - year.
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  - We kinda went, you know, some people would
• 3:27
  - say boring when I mentioned the Knicks and
• 3:29
  - the Spurs
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  - at minus two seventy last week. Well, a
• 3:32
  - lot has changed in a few days. And
• 3:35
  - depending on on where you find it, most
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  - books have the Knicks now anywhere from plus
• 3:40
  - 900
• 3:41
  - or plus a thousand, Dan, to win the
• 3:43
  - NBA title. Now I don't know if folks
• 3:45
  - are are forgetting that there are 82 games
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  - in an NBA season. But when you start,
• 3:50
  - oh, and a few losses in a row,
• 3:52
  - apparently, that makes everyone panic.
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  - I got so excited for this podcast today
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  - because
• 3:58
  - I thought about that number. Mine... You know,
• 4:00
  - plus 900, plus a thousand to win the
• 4:03
  - NBA title. Are you kidding me? When the
• 4:05
  - entire team outside of Mitchell Robinson
• 4:08
  - is intact.
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  - And it's just gonna take... Everyone's healthy. It
• 4:12
  - just... It's gonna... You know, they have a
• 4:13
  - hangover. Right? They did ask Saturday night live.
• 4:15
  - They did the Muppets. They were all over
• 4:17
  - the place. And maybe, you know, it's gonna
• 4:20
  - take them a little extra to get going,
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  - but this is not a team that needs
• 4:23
  - home court advantage to win an NBA title.
• 4:25
  - I love that value.
• 4:27
  - Yeah. And I think one of the things
• 4:28
  - you wanna do, and I I think this
• 4:30
  - is like a very TSMX thing that we're
• 4:32
  - talking about here is, you know, we're a
• 4:34
  - marketplace. We know that our our community members
• 4:37
  - and our betters are gonna bet and and
• 4:39
  - play over at FanDuel, maybe DraftKings. They're gonna
• 4:42
  - do EV betting. They may do our betting.
• 4:43
  - You're gonna be on several different places. If
• 4:46
  - you can lock in plus 1,000 on the
• 4:48
  - Knicks on a future for the NBA title
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  - and someone's offering up those odds, then you
• 4:54
  - might wanna grab a bit of money on
• 4:56
  - that because if it comes through, you're gonna
• 4:58
  - do a nice multiplier on your money for
• 5:01
  - a pretty low amount. So there's huge value
• 5:03
  - in that for sure. And, yeah, hookmakers,
• 5:05
  - you know, they're gonna they're gonna set the
• 5:07
  - odds to to chase those future bettors to
• 5:09
  - come in and place those those long futures,
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  - as well. So it's it's a fickle world.
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  - Like you say, we're only a few games
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  - in Yeah. To the regular season. It's a
• 5:18
  - long season. Things are gonna change a lot.
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  - But, hey, if you can get that betting
• 5:21
  - value now, we'll talk a little bit about
• 5:23
  - some arving opportunities later, absolutely go for it.
• 5:26
  - It should get every... Anybody that's,
• 5:28
  - into sports trading and the sports market pretty
• 5:30
  - excited.
• 5:31
  - Alright. Elsewhere,
• 5:33
  - yes, you can you can take your shots
• 5:35
  - now. We'll get this one out of the
• 5:37
  - way. The, Celtics Knicks over was a colossal
• 5:40
  - failure last week here on the show. Two
• 5:42
  - twenty three and a half, super high,
• 5:45
  - line.
• 5:46
  - These two teams went to overtime a couple
• 5:47
  - of times last year. I just figured it
• 5:49
  - would be, you know, a shootout. Jalen Brunson
• 5:51
  - couldn't shoot well at all in this game.
• 5:54
  - There was a lot of defense surprisingly early
• 5:55
  - on in the season between these two teams.
• 5:57
  - It was the second game of the year,
• 5:59
  - so I lost that one miserably.
• 6:01
  - Yeah. And you know what? I think I
• 6:03
  - think I was ready to come in and
• 6:04
  - do the I told you so thing, but
• 6:06
  - the reality is is I said it was
• 6:07
  - gonna be, you know, a razor's edge,
• 6:11
  - shaving on the over under, if you recall,
• 6:14
  - and it wasn't. It was quite a bit
• 6:16
  - under. I think it was 10, 12 points
• 6:18
  - under. But, again, I think the way that
• 6:20
  - you would look at that from a dispassionate
• 6:22
  - betters perspective is second game of the season.
• 6:25
  - You're probably more likely to be out of
• 6:27
  - tune, rusty,
• 6:29
  - you know, exactly some of the things that
• 6:32
  - you're seeing in that game.
• 6:33
  - So I think it's a really good example
• 6:35
  - of bookmakers
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  - baiting betters on what your hopeful expectations would
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  - be. Right? Everybody was hyping that game up
• 6:43
  - all week long.
• 6:45
  - It it just could have been the game
• 6:47
  - seven of the finals.
• 6:48
  - Right? But,
• 6:49
  - you know, they do that. They they set
• 6:51
  - a high over on it. A lot of
• 6:53
  - people took that over. The books won a
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  - lot of money on that.
• 6:57
  - Yeah. So... No. No. I told you so
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  - I was there because I was wrong as
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  - well. Right? I wasn't right. I just happened
• 7:03
  - to be on the right side of being
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  - wrong.
• 7:06
  - You're too kind. You're too kind.
• 7:08
  - I I will say before we move on
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  - from this sort of,
• 7:11
  - this this recap,
• 7:13
  - well, actually, it's more of a transitioning year.
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  - We talked about the title,
• 7:18
  - odds for the Spurs at plus two seventy.
• 7:20
  - You're seeing because of a a little bit
• 7:21
  - of a sluggish start,
• 7:23
  - it it went up to plus two ninety.
• 7:25
  - But now with this Oklahoma City
• 7:27
  - rash of injuries. Right? Caruso's
• 7:29
  - now out. Jalen Williams, probably J Dub gone
• 7:32
  - for the year.
• 7:33
  - A couple of other players on that bench
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  - also,
• 7:36
  - injured right now,
• 7:38
  - and and even Shay Gilgeous Alexander in a
• 7:40
  - postgame presser was emotional about it. He knows
• 7:43
  - what these injuries mean to this team that
• 7:45
  - wanted to come back and and win their
• 7:47
  - second title in three years. Because of that,
• 7:50
  - one team to keep an eye on in
• 7:51
  - the West, not to win the title, but
• 7:53
  - interesting odds just to win the Western Conference,
• 7:57
  - plus 900,
• 7:58
  - the Houston Rockets. Now the Houston Rockets
• 8:01
  - didn't have Fred VanVleet
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  - for, you know,
• 8:05
  - a period,
• 8:06
  - previously. But he's there, and he's looking like
• 8:08
  - he did with the Raptors even early on
• 8:10
  - in the season. His first three games, he
• 8:12
  - had two turnovers collectively in all three of
• 8:14
  - those games.
• 8:16
  - You know, Shangoon, the center, looks leaner, more
• 8:19
  - athletic.
• 8:20
  - We saw that the, you know, the meme
• 8:22
  - block, right, of of,
• 8:24
  - Thompson. Iman Thompson on,
• 8:27
  - on Wembley at the net, which might be
• 8:28
  - the highlight of the year already.
• 8:31
  - The Rockets at plus 900, man. Now with
• 8:34
  - OKC kind of teetering on on being a
• 8:37
  - hardcore favorite, still a great team, but
• 8:40
  - I don't know. Something about that that Ime
• 8:42
  - Udoka coach team could be interesting this year
• 8:44
  - with with Kevin Durant.
• 8:46
  - Yeah. I think I think one of the
• 8:48
  - things you can do on on some of
• 8:49
  - these futures is have a bit of fun
• 8:51
  - with it. I mean, if you've got some
• 8:52
  - long odds and you think that there's a
• 8:53
  - potential
• 8:54
  - in your bankroll and in your in your
• 8:56
  - in your trading strategy on how you wanna
• 8:59
  - do it, have some fun with it. Right?
• 9:01
  - I mean, you know, if you if you
• 9:03
  - lose if you lose a few units off
• 9:05
  - of your bankroll because of it,
• 9:08
  - Yeah. I feel like it's like VC investing.
• 9:10
  - Right? You're gonna make a 100 plays,
• 9:13
  - if you're gonna do this. And if one
• 9:14
  - hits, it's gonna take care of all of
• 9:16
  - the rest. Right? So if that's kinda your
• 9:18
  - bag and you wanna go for some of
• 9:20
  - those futures, then take those long odds. I
• 9:22
  - don't think it's, I don't think it's unreasonable,
• 9:24
  - especially Western Conference, for example, like you're saying.
• 9:27
  - Maybe not the... They may... Maybe not the
• 9:29
  - championship. But Yeah. No. That's... That was very
• 9:32
  - explicit with that. That's... Let's get to some
• 9:33
  - of these games. Now a reminder, this, podcast
• 9:36
  - is coming out on Thursday afternoon.
• 9:39
  - We've recorded it a little, previous to that.
• 9:42
  - So we're looking now at games for Friday.
• 9:46
  - So keep in mind some of these odds,
• 9:47
  - some of these lines might have moved a
• 9:49
  - little bit here, Dan.
• 9:51
  - But a prime video game and NBA Cup
• 9:54
  - game here, interesting to see. You know, every
• 9:56
  - year they they rejig who plays who in
• 9:58
  - the NBA Cup in the in the different
• 10:00
  - kind of,
• 10:01
  - what do they call them? Pools, I guess.
• 10:03
  - And so you have the Knicks at the
• 10:06
  - 70
• 10:07
  - for... Or already the second time this season.
• 10:10
  - The earlier meeting of the game in the,
• 10:12
  - the opening game, you had the Knicks losing
• 10:15
  - one one zero six one hundred
• 10:17
  - to the seventy sixers that was in Madison
• 10:20
  - Square
• 10:21
  - Garden. Keep in mind,
• 10:23
  - that,
• 10:24
  - the the seventy sixers also,
• 10:27
  - then beat Cleveland. Remember they were down by,
• 10:29
  - what was it, 29 points in that game?
• 10:31
  - Mhmm. Something like that. Yeah. Yeah. They're gonna
• 10:33
  - be they're gonna be just
• 10:36
  - pounding teams all year, and it's gonna be
• 10:38
  - a... You know, people were worried about the
• 10:40
  - the the chemistry here. I think the number
• 10:42
  - one thing with how deep they are is
• 10:44
  - they're gonna be able to rest guys here
• 10:45
  - and there. Like, for example Mhmm. You know,
• 10:48
  - LeBron will play and and, Embiid will take
• 10:50
  - a night off, and they're actually using LeBron
• 10:53
  - at the center position as well once in
• 10:55
  - a while. So this Friday game, we're seeing
• 10:58
  - it here at,
• 10:59
  - minus,
• 11:00
  - anywhere from minus one and a half to
• 11:02
  - minus three and a half, Dan. And this
• 11:04
  - is a game in Philadelphia here where the
• 11:07
  - seventy sixers
• 11:08
  - now are the, the favorites.
• 11:10
  - I'm I'm I'm finding the total a little
• 11:12
  - wacky here. I learned from my Celtics Knicks
• 11:15
  - mistake earlier.
• 11:17
  - Anywhere from two thirty and a half to
• 11:19
  - two thirty one and a half. What is
• 11:21
  - the deal there?
• 11:22
  - Yeah. I think what it is is it's
• 11:24
  - the same thing as we saw,
• 11:26
  - with the, Knicks Celtics game last week.
• 11:30
  - I think you're getting baited here. You've got
• 11:32
  - LeBron,
• 11:33
  - obviously, media favorite, fan favorite, square favorite,
• 11:37
  - coming in. People are gonna bet on this
• 11:38
  - and say, hey. Look. You know? All I
• 11:40
  - know is LeBron is playing, and I know
• 11:42
  - the Knicks or something, and that's gonna be
• 11:44
  - an over. Right?
• 11:46
  - Now there's a lot of ways you can
• 11:48
  - rationalize this. You could stay away. You could
• 11:50
  - pick the under.
• 11:51
  - They could pop off, but, you know, that's
• 11:53
  - a pretty that's a pretty high scoring game
• 11:55
  - there. I think the biggest opportunity here is
• 11:58
  - if you're doing some arb wagering,
• 12:00
  - you'll be able to look at, you know,
• 12:04
  - you'd be able to look at anywhere from
• 12:05
  - two thirty and a half to two thirty
• 12:06
  - one and a half over at some of
• 12:08
  - the traditional books. Right?
• 12:11
  - What we do when we grab the lines
• 12:14
  - is we actually get about 18 different spread
• 12:17
  - totals. Amazing.
• 12:19
  - As a spread across
• 12:21
  - that. We pull the fair odds, the closest
• 12:24
  - to fifty fifty, which are really where there's
• 12:26
  - consensus
• 12:27
  - from the bookmakers as to where that line
• 12:29
  - is actually probably gonna land before they start
• 12:32
  - adjusting their books to balance so that they
• 12:34
  - can, you know, make make the books do
• 12:36
  - what they wanna do, so that they're making
• 12:38
  - money. So you got an ARB opportunity here.
• 12:40
  - If we come in shooting probably around two
• 12:43
  - twenty seven and a half, something like that,
• 12:46
  - we may come in a bit lower than
• 12:48
  - that even. Then you've got, other lines that
• 12:51
  - are available that that shoot up to 02:30.
• 12:53
  - You know, you can take the over on
• 12:55
  - TSMX and the under at a book, for
• 12:57
  - example. You bet that spread, and you can
• 13:00
  - win on both sides. And, again, you know,
• 13:02
  - we're not a sports book. Winners are welcome.
• 13:04
  - ARB and EV bettors are welcome. So that's
• 13:06
  - a nice little opportunity
• 13:08
  - looking,
• 13:09
  - just staring you right in the face there
• 13:10
  - on that game. Yeah. That's the interest... Interesting
• 13:13
  - and fun part about ts...
• 13:15
  - Tsmx.io
• 13:17
  - is that
• 13:18
  - you, you know, it it... It's not a
• 13:21
  - it's not a book in the... It's not
• 13:22
  - a book. It's it's a it's a marketplace.
• 13:24
  - It's... And you can come in
• 13:27
  - and challenge somebody else, and they take the
• 13:29
  - other side.
• 13:31
  - And meanwhile, you went to a book and
• 13:33
  - you got it at, you know, like you
• 13:34
  - mentioned, you're playing book. I I I just
• 13:36
  - love it. I love I love the idea
• 13:38
  - that you can have some fun. It... It's
• 13:40
  - it's opening up a new world, essentially. It's
• 13:42
  - not the same kinda, oh, I just gotta
• 13:43
  - get my my, you know, my one my
• 13:46
  - one number.
• 13:47
  - Yeah. For sure. And... Look. Everybody's moving, and
• 13:49
  - all the other players in the market are
• 13:51
  - moving in towards prediction markets. And, hey, prediction
• 13:53
  - markets have their place.
• 13:55
  - But this is a unique option. The other
• 13:58
  - cool thing is if you wanna practice and
• 13:59
  - gain your legs,
• 14:01
  - in what a marketplace looks like, you come
• 14:04
  - in, you set up your free account,
• 14:06
  - you use the coins. Our coins are basically
• 14:10
  - free. No entry required. You can play as
• 14:12
  - much as you want. Get a feel for
• 14:13
  - it. No stakes. No skin in the game.
• 14:16
  - Just have fun. Test it out. Right? Set
• 14:18
  - the odds. Get your friends to come in.
• 14:20
  - Match those those orders.
• 14:22
  - And, you know, you can kinda prime yourself
• 14:25
  - for getting used to maybe some more advanced
• 14:26
  - betting or doing some EV betting or doing
• 14:28
  - some ARPA betting,
• 14:30
  - without any liability at all. Right? We're we're
• 14:34
  - effectively one of the only
• 14:36
  - marketplaces around right now that will do that.
• 14:38
  - So,
• 14:39
  - you know, it's open for fun and open
• 14:41
  - to actually see your test in the real
• 14:43
  - world
• 14:44
  - with those coins. And we're gonna have additional
• 14:47
  - contest based around coins, etcetera, and it's gonna
• 14:49
  - be a lot of fun. A lot of
• 14:50
  - that is gonna be announced and launched on
• 14:52
  - Discord as well.
• 14:54
  - Alright. So so just finishing up on this
• 14:56
  - game,
• 14:57
  - yeah, I don't see the Knicks losing two
• 14:58
  - in a row, this early in the season
• 15:00
  - to the seventy sixers. It's a rematch.
• 15:03
  - New York is not a team that's gonna
• 15:05
  - go o and 15.
• 15:06
  - So, give me the Knicks. I... Actually, even
• 15:08
  - on the money line, which which is anywhere.
• 15:11
  - Again, we're looking at two different books here.
• 15:13
  - One set... Plus one seventeen or plus one
• 15:15
  - thirty.
• 15:16
  - And then, obviously, if you check it out
• 15:18
  - on, TSMX,
• 15:19
  - could be, you know, the number that you
• 15:21
  - want as well. So interesting stuff.
• 15:24
  - Totally. I mean, I don't I I don't
• 15:26
  - see the 70 being the favorite there, but
• 15:28
  - you know what? I mean, again, this is
• 15:30
  - bookmakers doing what bookmakers will do, baiting,
• 15:33
  - sports betters into,
• 15:36
  - taking a certain side. And,
• 15:38
  - if that's not always accurate, if that makes
• 15:40
  - sense,
• 15:42
  - just due to popularity for sure. Alright. Another
• 15:45
  - NBA Cup game here, Dan, on Friday night.
• 15:47
  - It's a 10:00 start. So following the other
• 15:49
  - game, right on prime video as well. Lakers
• 15:52
  - at the warriors here.
• 15:54
  - The warriors finally got their their first win
• 15:56
  - of the year. That was a a big
• 15:58
  - win for them. It was in,
• 15:59
  - Denver, in fact,
• 16:01
  - A team that that probably,
• 16:03
  - is missing Peyton Watson who they had to
• 16:05
  - ship away due to salary cap,
• 16:07
  - issues or luxury tax, I should say.
• 16:10
  - This is a... This is almost a pick
• 16:11
  - them,
• 16:12
  - and and rightfully so. The warriors, you know,
• 16:14
  - they have Steph Curry. Yes.
• 16:16
  - But, you know, the the amount of money
• 16:18
  - that they spent on, you know, Brandon Paczynski
• 16:20
  - and and some of those other pieces are
• 16:22
  - just... They're... They'll they'll be in the play
• 16:24
  - in tournament. Nobody expects them to be above
• 16:26
  - that. They'll have their one offs here and
• 16:28
  - there where where Steph will go off or
• 16:30
  - they'll they'll take, another team will take them
• 16:32
  - lightly. But this is not a team that
• 16:34
  - should be favored in many games against top
• 16:36
  - five teams, top six teams in the West,
• 16:38
  - and that's what the Lakers are right now.
• 16:40
  - Now the issue with the Lakers is you
• 16:43
  - saw Walker Kessler first game of the year.
• 16:44
  - He looked unbelievable. I think he went 12
• 16:46
  - for 12 from the field. And then he
• 16:48
  - plays against his former team in Utah, and
• 16:51
  - he has two points. I don't know if
• 16:52
  - it was a deal that, okay. You know,
• 16:55
  - you can have Walker Kessler, but when he
• 16:57
  - plays us, he's not allowed to do anything.
• 16:59
  - So, you know,
• 17:00
  - I I I really... You know, the the
• 17:02
  - warriors don't have a dominant guy in the
• 17:04
  - middle here. Obviously, Draymond plays a lot of
• 17:06
  - five at his size. I love the Lakers
• 17:09
  - in this one, and I I can't
• 17:12
  - understand
• 17:13
  - why anybody would take the warriors here against
• 17:15
  - LA.
• 17:17
  - It is hard to say. I mean, look
• 17:18
  - at the... You know,
• 17:20
  - props to Steph Curry for his loyalty and
• 17:22
  - resigning with the warriors given the state of
• 17:24
  - the team.
• 17:25
  - You know, he's closing out his career,
• 17:27
  - with a loyalty that you don't see anymore
• 17:29
  - in the NBA or haven't seen for a
• 17:31
  - good twenty, thirty years. Yep.
• 17:34
  - Maybe I'm exaggerating a little bit there. But
• 17:36
  - taking... Even taking into account, actually think that
• 17:39
  - that although it is kinda priced out of
• 17:41
  - Pick'em,
• 17:42
  - typically, you're gonna get, you know, two and
• 17:44
  - a half to three points as a home
• 17:46
  - favorite. So, you know, what we saw last
• 17:48
  - week was when the warriors were in Los
• 17:50
  - Angeles,
• 17:52
  - you know, that that was reflected a a
• 17:54
  - bit of a a point,
• 17:56
  - shaving against the warriors and a bit of
• 17:58
  - a favor just for being at home. So
• 17:59
  - you look at that like six points. You
• 18:01
  - translate that into a money line. You're actually
• 18:04
  - seeing here that the Lakers are probably favored,
• 18:06
  - but just taking into account that they're on
• 18:07
  - the road,
• 18:08
  - they're gonna get slightly worse odds. So it
• 18:12
  - it does push it a little bit more
• 18:13
  - to a Lakers. I think I'm with you
• 18:14
  - on that one. I I don't think that
• 18:16
  - the Warriors... Unless the Lakers really kinda trip,
• 18:18
  - stumble, and fall in in unexpected ways, the
• 18:21
  - Warriors just aren't as good as a team.
• 18:25
  - And I think that goes without saying even
• 18:27
  - with Curry there. And he's, you know, he's
• 18:29
  - got some limited play time,
• 18:31
  - as well on and off the court.
• 18:33
  - So I would I would go with the
• 18:35
  - Lakers that. If I was gonna do anything
• 18:36
  - on this, to be honest with you, I'd
• 18:38
  - probably pull an, an under on that one
• 18:41
  - and take, the Lakers
• 18:43
  - on the money line. The spread right now
• 18:45
  - is negligible. It's almost nothing. It's minus one
• 18:48
  - plus one point. So Yeah. Not even worth
• 18:50
  - your time.
• 18:51
  - Alright. Final one before we get to some
• 18:53
  - NFL. Woo hoo.
• 18:54
  - The Bulls at the Celtics, another
• 18:57
  - Yes, sir. NBA Cup game. Now here's the
• 18:59
  - thing about... You know, I'm I'm a Celtics
• 19:00
  - fan, full disclosure, but, you know, they have
• 19:03
  - not competed in the NBA Cup in in
• 19:05
  - terms of advancing. I think one year, they
• 19:08
  - got to the semis, but they... Or or
• 19:10
  - the quarters, is it? But they've never been
• 19:12
  - close to contending for this NBA cup. Meanwhile,
• 19:15
  - their archrival Lakers have won the NBA cup.
• 19:18
  - This is
• 19:19
  - an interesting matchup. The Celtics pounded
• 19:23
  - pounded
• 19:23
  - the bulls on Monday night. It was a
• 19:25
  - 35
• 19:26
  - win. It was never close.
• 19:29
  - And,
• 19:30
  - Boston is is already, you know, again, we're
• 19:33
  - early on here, but we're looking at a
• 19:35
  - spread, Dan,
• 19:36
  - of 14
• 19:37
  - and a half.
• 19:38
  - That was from, DraftKings.
• 19:40
  - 14 and a half points here.
• 19:42
  - The game is in Boston once again. So
• 19:45
  - they're playing at home in TD Garden again.
• 19:48
  - Bulls have a couple of interesting players like
• 19:50
  - Norman Powell and Wilson, the top five, pick
• 19:53
  - in the NBA draft who was pretty good
• 19:55
  - on Monday night.
• 19:57
  - But Boston, not gonna talk about playoffs. That's
• 20:00
  - still painful for me. But regular season,
• 20:03
  - Joe Missoula knows how to win. They go
• 20:04
  - they go nine, 10 deep even with their
• 20:07
  - bench.
• 20:08
  - I think they're just gonna wear out the
• 20:10
  - Bulls. I
• 20:12
  - I I think they win by 14. I
• 20:14
  - I can't remember the last time I picked
• 20:16
  - a team
• 20:17
  - at this number, and, of course, it's hard
• 20:18
  - to go, you know, beat a team twice
• 20:20
  - in the same week.
• 20:21
  - But, you know, Tiago splitter and and the
• 20:23
  - Bulls are just kinda trying to feel each
• 20:26
  - other out. There's no there's no real system
• 20:28
  - right now. It's a free for all. They
• 20:30
  - don't play defense at all.
• 20:32
  - Boston didn't even play that
• 20:34
  - great for, you know, Pete and Pritchard had
• 20:36
  - 28 points on Monday. Tatum had 21 points.
• 20:39
  - Essentially,
• 20:40
  - most of it in the first half, didn't
• 20:42
  - really even do much in the second half.
• 20:44
  - They played Brooklyn on Tuesday night as well,
• 20:46
  - but they have a couple of days off.
• 20:48
  - I like I like,
• 20:50
  - the Boston Celtics to cover 14 and a
• 20:52
  - half. I can't believe I just said that.
• 20:54
  - Yeah. I... And you know what? I think
• 20:56
  - looking at this, this is, this is a
• 20:58
  - media game. This is a social media game.
• 21:00
  - It's a popular,
• 21:03
  - matchup. Right?
• 21:04
  - Two two storied franchises meeting head to head
• 21:06
  - with a rivalry that that goes back several
• 21:09
  - decades there, but it's not a game with
• 21:11
  - a lot of value in it if you're
• 21:13
  - looking strictly at the numbers. Right? You got
• 21:15
  - the Celtics at minus eight fifty, pulls up
• 21:17
  - plus five seventy five on the money line.
• 21:19
  - You gotta spread up minus 15 and a
• 21:21
  - half,
• 21:22
  - right, with minus one ten odds. So look.
• 21:25
  - You're you're not getting a ton of betting
• 21:28
  - value
• 21:29
  - out of this
• 21:30
  - unless you're willing to put a whole bunch
• 21:32
  - of money
• 21:34
  - on the Celtics at minus eight fifty. But
• 21:36
  - don't forget, at minus eight fifty, for every
• 21:37
  - $850
• 21:38
  - that you spend, you're gonna win a 100.
• 21:40
  - Like, that's not great value. Those are very...
• 21:43
  - You know, you're gonna be you're gonna be
• 21:45
  - throwing down tens of thousands of dollars to
• 21:47
  - see anything really worth even bothering.
• 21:49
  - Good game. Could have some fun on the
• 21:52
  - over under or with the spread. You're not
• 21:54
  - gonna win a ton. There's just not a
• 21:56
  - lot of betting value,
• 21:58
  - in this game itself,
• 22:00
  - to be quite honest. Maybe you could pull
• 22:01
  - some props in there as well. Bulls have
• 22:04
  - the worst three point shooting in the NBA.
• 22:07
  - Boston, obviously, a huge three point shooting team.
• 22:09
  - So if they get any kind of lead
• 22:11
  - here,
• 22:11
  - the bulls aren't equipped to come back. And
• 22:13
  - that's one of the reasons that the spread
• 22:15
  - actually looks attainable, believe it or not.
• 22:19
  - Alright. Elsewhere,
• 22:21
  - Dan, should we... Do you have any other
• 22:23
  - NBA,
• 22:24
  - thoughts, or should we switch to the NFL?
• 22:27
  - I think I think that's a good run
• 22:29
  - on the NBA. Why don't we jump on
• 22:31
  - over to week seven and week eight? Yeah.
• 22:33
  - Well, you know, looking at week seven,
• 22:36
  - a couple of interesting things jump out. First
• 22:37
  - of all, you know, we were we were
• 22:39
  - a little nervous on the, minus two ninety
• 22:41
  - Vikings pick from last week when they were
• 22:43
  - down ten six in the third quarter
• 22:45
  - against, the Indianapolis Colts. But sure enough,
• 22:49
  - you know, Minnesota gets to six and o
• 22:50
  - now on the season, a sixteen ten win
• 22:53
  - over Indianapolis.
• 22:54
  - So they're the only unbeaten team in the
• 22:57
  - NFL. The Chiefs lose. The 40 lose as
• 23:00
  - well with a skeleton crew. Now they're on
• 23:02
  - a bye week.
• 23:04
  - The Chiefs, are are playing against Denver. We'll
• 23:06
  - we'll cover that a little later. But,
• 23:09
  - learnings learnings from week seven, that's what it's
• 23:12
  - all about when you're looking at picks and
• 23:13
  - betting and trying to understand these teams. You
• 23:16
  - don't wanna overreact from week to week either.
• 23:19
  - You're looking for trends. You're looking for for,
• 23:21
  - you know, up and coming things. You're looking
• 23:23
  - for, you know,
• 23:24
  - things that are starting to go by the
• 23:26
  - wayside.
• 23:27
  - So, you know, if we if we look
• 23:29
  - at some of these things, I I
• 23:31
  - I look at that Vikings team at six
• 23:33
  - and o, and I think
• 23:34
  - Kyler Murray was basically thrown away. And here
• 23:37
  - they are six and o. They have a
• 23:38
  - great defense. No one's discounting that. But Mhmm.
• 23:41
  - You know, they've had a couple of pretty
• 23:43
  - good wins, but they're about to hit a
• 23:44
  - a gauntlet of a schedule.
• 23:47
  - They play the Detroit Lions this week. That
• 23:50
  - to me is going to be very interesting.
• 23:52
  - The Lions beating the Packers
• 23:53
  - should not go,
• 23:55
  - unnoticed.
• 23:56
  - That was a Jake Bates,
• 23:58
  - field goal,
• 23:59
  - at at, you know, at the gun.
• 24:01
  - And every week I look up, we were
• 24:02
  - talking about this off air. Every time I
• 24:04
  - look up, Jared Goff has over 300 yards
• 24:06
  - passing in every box score.
• 24:08
  - So, you know, the lions to me are
• 24:11
  - are starting... You know, the... After a couple
• 24:12
  - of weeks this season, people thought, oh, what
• 24:14
  - what are they doing? But they're starting to
• 24:16
  - look like that perennial playoff team again here,
• 24:19
  - and, that's an interesting matchup to me.
• 24:23
  - For sure.
• 24:24
  - I I I have many, many numerous thoughts
• 24:27
  - as I was watching,
• 24:28
  - Dallas,
• 24:29
  - last night, not pooping down their legs,
• 24:32
  - but close.
• 24:34
  - The Lions' defense
• 24:36
  - is atrocious,
• 24:38
  - And this kinda hearkens back to,
• 24:41
  - many decades of of
• 24:43
  - some pretty decent offenses actually for the Lions
• 24:46
  - that they were never able to kind of
• 24:48
  - handle the other side of the ball, which
• 24:49
  - is super important.
• 24:51
  - That's one thing. But look, Jared Goff,
• 24:54
  - you know, you can't you can't dismiss,
• 24:56
  - the Lions offense. They are a high powered,
• 24:59
  - high scoring,
• 25:00
  - dangerous offense.
• 25:02
  - Frankly, I think that the Vikings have been
• 25:04
  - soft. The first half of their schedule is
• 25:07
  - was like a marshmallow,
• 25:10
  - with the exception maybe of of the Packers
• 25:12
  - that they had there coming up. Right. They've
• 25:15
  - got the Lions. They've got the Bills. They've
• 25:17
  - got the pack. They got the Niners. They
• 25:19
  - got the Falcons, the surprisingly
• 25:21
  - good Falcons,
• 25:22
  - as well.
• 25:25
  - I get the sense, and I'm not gonna
• 25:26
  - look and read any tea leaves on this,
• 25:28
  - but they could be six and five in
• 25:30
  - short order. It is entirely
• 25:32
  - possible. Well, let's let's... I... And I'm sorry.
• 25:34
  - Go ahead. I do wanna say one thing
• 25:35
  - about the Vikings, and I'm not gonna just
• 25:37
  - hate on the Vikings.
• 25:38
  - But every mediocre football team looks great when
• 25:41
  - they're playing really bad teams.
• 25:43
  - That's just the reality. Right?
• 25:46
  - So,
• 25:47
  - I I will kinda I will kinda put
• 25:49
  - that in there. And no hate to the
• 25:51
  - Vikings even though I'm a Saints fan. They
• 25:53
  - are, you know, our perennial rivals for the
• 25:55
  - last, you know, ten, fifteen years for sure,
• 25:58
  - given given events that have happened in the
• 26:00
  - past. But I think realistically Oh, Chase Keenum.
• 26:03
  - Yeah. They're surviving at six and o right
• 26:06
  - now. They're they are not the best team
• 26:08
  - in the NFL. They are
• 26:10
  - surprisingly
• 26:11
  - better,
• 26:11
  - and their defense is surprisingly better than I
• 26:14
  - think anybody predicted. Kyler Murray is surprisingly better,
• 26:18
  - and he's kind of fit in with O'Connell
• 26:20
  - nicely,
• 26:22
  - into that into that, offensive scheme. So they're
• 26:25
  - surprisingly better than than than I think everybody
• 26:27
  - thought, but they're not as good as everybody's
• 26:29
  - predicting because they're six and o. I think
• 26:31
  - there's a there's a distinction there. You're gonna
• 26:33
  - wanna see the latest number at, TSMX,
• 26:36
  - but,
• 26:36
  - you're you're seeing a total of maybe 46
• 26:40
  - and a half seems pretty,
• 26:41
  - you know, pretty consistent amongst a a bunch
• 26:44
  - of books.
• 26:45
  - You're seeing, the lines favored in this where...
• 26:48
  - This one anywhere from two and a half
• 26:49
  - to four and a half.
• 26:51
  - I, again, I like Detroit here at home
• 26:54
  - at Ford Field. I think they're hitting their
• 26:56
  - groove
• 26:57
  - offensively. You know, the the Vikings only gave
• 26:59
  - up 10 points again. We know, but as
• 27:01
  - you mentioned, you're playing down your opponent. This
• 27:03
  - is not a good Colts team. We talked
• 27:05
  - about that last week. That's why it was
• 27:07
  - minus two ninety in that game, and you're
• 27:09
  - not gonna see that here with lions and
• 27:11
  - and and and Vikings here.
• 27:13
  - Minnesota's off that by week. They got their
• 27:15
  - win against Indianapolis. It was harder than what
• 27:17
  - they thought it was going to be. I
• 27:19
  - think the lions just don't have margin for
• 27:21
  - error here. Here. I think they look up
• 27:22
  - at a six and o team. They lose
• 27:23
  - this game, and I don't... It's not their
• 27:25
  - season,
• 27:26
  - but it's it's pretty damn far up the
• 27:28
  - standings if they don't win this game. So
• 27:30
  - I I really like the lions in this
• 27:31
  - one.
• 27:32
  - Yeah. I like the lions too.
• 27:34
  - It's gonna be a matter of whether their
• 27:36
  - defense can actually step up.
• 27:39
  - But you're seeing a lot of the Vikings'
• 27:41
  - wins are not high scoring games. They're defensive
• 27:44
  - battles, and that is exactly the opposite of
• 27:47
  - where the Lions' strengths lies. So if you
• 27:49
  - look at, hey. You know, if the Vikings
• 27:52
  - defense can contain the Lions offense,
• 27:56
  - then you got a playoff contender in the
• 27:58
  - Vikings. But I don't think that that's gonna
• 28:00
  - happen, to be honest. I actually think that
• 28:02
  - they won't be able to contain that that
• 28:04
  - high powered
• 28:05
  - offense. I think it's gonna be a high
• 28:07
  - score. I would take the over on this
• 28:08
  - one. I don't think, I think the defenses
• 28:11
  - are both... Well, Lions defense can't crumble because
• 28:14
  - it was never there to begin with. But
• 28:16
  - the Vikings,
• 28:18
  - defense, I think, is gonna be heavily tested
• 28:21
  - against a really, really strong offense. The Vikings
• 28:24
  - have not faced
• 28:26
  - a team that includes the Packers. They have
• 28:27
  - not faced a team that has the running
• 28:29
  - game of Ja'Marr Gibbs in that backfield and
• 28:32
  - the combination of passing as well. Jacobs for
• 28:35
  - Green Bay was missing in that game earlier
• 28:37
  - in the season. I I... Again, another reason
• 28:39
  - to take them. But but moving on here,
• 28:41
  - I know you have feelings about this next
• 28:42
  - game.
• 28:44
  - Eagles at the Commanders. That's the Sunday night
• 28:47
  - football game here, Dan.
• 28:49
  - And we're looking at McKee, the young quarterback
• 28:51
  - for the Eagles who lost,
• 28:53
  - on Monday night football. It's a short week,
• 28:55
  - for the Eagles here
• 28:57
  - in DC, a place where they're well familiar,
• 29:00
  - against the Commanders who are favored, by three
• 29:03
  - and a half or so. Nobody's expecting bunch
• 29:05
  - of points here in this one. We're talk...
• 29:07
  - Talking, you know, barely over 40 points for
• 29:09
  - an over under. But Mhmm. You know, I
• 29:11
  - saw some signs in that Dallas game. You
• 29:13
  - know, McKee's learning, It's hard, man, when you
• 29:15
  - don't get any snaps in practice. Very few
• 29:17
  - guys can be Brock Purdie and just come
• 29:19
  - in and and be ready to go like
• 29:21
  - that. And and McKee had some signs there.
• 29:23
  - He threw an interception in the second half
• 29:25
  - against Dallas that really, you know, curt... You
• 29:27
  - know, deep sixed them. But his defense
• 29:30
  - surprisingly let him down in that game, and
• 29:32
  - and Dallas looked like a pretty good offense
• 29:34
  - at that point.
• 29:36
  - The issue with the commanders for me, and
• 29:38
  - I... Before I
• 29:39
  - let you weigh in here,
• 29:41
  - is I, you know, I watched that Niners
• 29:42
  - game against the Commanders from a couple weeks
• 29:44
  - ago, and Mhmm. The Commanders aren't throwing the
• 29:47
  - ball deep. Everything is short, short, short, short.
• 29:49
  - It's predictable,
• 29:50
  - and, they couldn't get over the hump against
• 29:52
  - San Francisco. They had a couple of really
• 29:54
  - good series in that third quarter.
• 29:56
  - But no Terry McLaurin, and I think that's
• 29:58
  - a big issue for for the commanders here.
• 30:01
  - Sure. I I think there's a whole bunch
• 30:03
  - of issues for the commanders. One is,
• 30:06
  - Dan Quinn's terrible play calling and bad management,
• 30:09
  - bad o line management. Like, it's just been
• 30:11
  - it's just been a gong show over there
• 30:14
  - this year.
• 30:15
  - You do have Jaden Daniels. He's got that
• 30:17
  - bad elbow.
• 30:19
  - And on the commanders... Or on the Eagles
• 30:21
  - side, I I do wanna give some props
• 30:23
  - to the kid, Tanner McKee. He did look
• 30:25
  - pretty good. Look. He's terrible in the pocket.
• 30:27
  - He can... He has bad mobility.
• 30:29
  - He's not the most mobile of quarterbacks in
• 30:32
  - the world,
• 30:33
  - but he's got an arm. He's smart. He
• 30:36
  - made some heads up plays to his wide
• 30:38
  - receiver two and three,
• 30:40
  - adjusting in the pocket. He's just not fast
• 30:43
  - enough
• 30:43
  - in the pocket,
• 30:44
  - but he played a good solid two and
• 30:47
  - a half quarters
• 30:48
  - of football. And, again, he's new. He's fresh.
• 30:51
  - And like you say,
• 30:52
  - these backups don't get a lot of reps.
• 30:54
  - It's gonna give give the kids some time
• 30:56
  - to settle in to what is
• 30:58
  - an
• 30:59
  - upheaval
• 31:00
  - of an Eagles team,
• 31:02
  - just kind of all over the place. You
• 31:04
  - also saw Saquon,
• 31:07
  - kinda coming out as a leader there, really
• 31:09
  - working his hamstring, but, man, he is dominant
• 31:12
  - force of leadership on that field.
• 31:15
  - And, like, really, honestly,
• 31:17
  - the Cowboys aren't that good. They did run
• 31:19
  - away with it later on in the game,
• 31:21
  - admittedly,
• 31:23
  - but
• 31:24
  - the,
• 31:25
  - commanders
• 31:27
  - are not a very good team. Like, you
• 31:28
  - gotta call a spade a spade when it
• 31:30
  - comes right down to it. And if I
• 31:31
  - look at the coaching
• 31:33
  - that goes behind the team, I would say
• 31:35
  - that the Eagles are head and shoulders above
• 31:37
  - that. They've got Saquon.
• 31:39
  - They've they've got an... A
• 31:42
  - a really experienced crew in there. And if
• 31:44
  - Tanner McKee can just get some simple playbook
• 31:46
  - plays down, get more comfortable in the pocket,
• 31:49
  - I think it could be a dismantling. I
• 31:51
  - don't feel like the commanders are a favorite
• 31:53
  - here.
• 31:53
  - Maybe I'm gonna be wrong. Yeah. I I
• 31:55
  - would I will. I will. With the spread.
• 31:58
  - I don't know if you're going moneyline eagles
• 32:00
  - at, you know, plus one sixty,
• 32:02
  - but I'll I'll take the, commanders with the
• 32:04
  - spread. I rather the Eagles with the spread.
• 32:07
  - I I... I'll take the Eagles on the
• 32:08
  - money line. I think they're gonna win the
• 32:09
  - game,
• 32:11
  - and I think they're gonna... I think it's
• 32:12
  - gonna be competitive up to somewhere between, you
• 32:15
  - know, the the middle of the third and
• 32:16
  - the fourth, and then I think the the
• 32:18
  - the wheels will come off the bus. It
• 32:20
  - only takes... Like, look, even if you look
• 32:22
  - at Dallas last night, three
• 32:24
  - defensive stands, three penalties.
• 32:27
  - They were headed down a very dark road
• 32:30
  - there with an awful looking defense. They managed
• 32:32
  - to kind of salvage it later on in
• 32:34
  - the game, but,
• 32:36
  - this is an Eagles team that does
• 32:39
  - have the capability.
• 32:40
  - They've got the experience.
• 32:41
  - You know? And with Tanner McKee, he's just
• 32:43
  - gotta get a little bit more comfort. And,
• 32:45
  - again, if you put them up against a
• 32:47
  - a mildly good team, they'll probably lose, but
• 32:51
  - the commanders are not a good team.
• 32:53
  - A lot of the plays that they've been
• 32:54
  - calling have been terrible. The coaching is highly
• 32:57
  - lacking. I think Dan Quinn's job is potentially
• 33:00
  - on the line here, and I feel like
• 33:01
  - I wanna die on that hill. I don't
• 33:03
  - know why. I have nothing against. I love
• 33:05
  - Jaden Daniels.
• 33:06
  - I actually like Dan Quinn a lot. I
• 33:08
  - just think that they've made some, like, terrible
• 33:11
  - mistakes, and I just don't think they're very
• 33:12
  - strong of a team right now at all
• 33:14
  - on a lot of levels. On a lot
• 33:15
  - of Before we we close out here on
• 33:17
  - the house never wins, a couple of things
• 33:19
  - we gotta get to. First of all,
• 33:21
  - Dan, I don't know if you wanna highlight
• 33:23
  - anything. We are Thursday afternoon here. So do
• 33:25
  - you want to, mention anything on the TSMX,
• 33:29
  - platform,
• 33:31
  - for the Thursday night football game compared to,
• 33:34
  - obviously, some of the, you know, the the
• 33:35
  - book platforms out there?
• 33:38
  - You know, I think right now what it
• 33:39
  - is is just come on in, get signed
• 33:42
  - up, join the Discord,
• 33:44
  - get some picks in, maybe put some picks
• 33:46
  - in on other sports before,
• 33:48
  - Thursday comes up and the game start for,
• 33:51
  - the bit of the weekend run.
• 33:53
  - But, yeah, check-in on the Discord. Say hi.
• 33:57
  - And, you know, we've got a whole team
• 33:59
  - ready to walk you through how the platform
• 34:01
  - works if you want. We got tutorials. We're
• 34:02
  - gonna have more contests coming up,
• 34:05
  - and we can help you out with, matching
• 34:07
  - orders if that's, if that's what you're looking
• 34:09
  - to do. And remember, it's a platform that
• 34:12
  - we don't care or they don't care or
• 34:14
  - Dan doesn't care
• 34:16
  - whether you win
• 34:17
  - or lose. We want everyone to win. It's
• 34:19
  - just a matter of, you know, it it...
• 34:21
  - It's a small fee when you check out,
• 34:23
  - and that's it for the winner, and that's
• 34:24
  - it. There's no big. There's no, you know,
• 34:27
  - no one's no one's rigging stuff against you.
• 34:30
  - I I I just love the transparency that
• 34:32
  - that Dan brings every week when he talks
• 34:33
  - about,
• 34:35
  - TSMX.
• 34:36
  - Alright, Dan. So are you hitting me with
• 34:38
  - rapid fire stuff?
• 34:39
  - Am I am I am I gonna be
• 34:41
  - sunk?
• 34:43
  - I don't know. It's it's your ship to
• 34:45
  - sink or swim if you want.
• 34:47
  - We could we could both make a pick
• 34:49
  - if you want, and we don't have to
• 34:50
  - rifle it, machine gun.
• 34:53
  - But let's let's let's let's roll down... Let's
• 34:56
  - roll down the board here. We got Thursday
• 34:58
  - night. We got Panthers, Packers. Who you got?
• 35:01
  - Panthers.
• 35:02
  - Panthers.
• 35:03
  - You got Panthers.
• 35:04
  - Interesting.
• 35:06
  - Yeah. They they they they got embarrassed, humiliated,
• 35:10
  - all the progress they've shown, and it got
• 35:12
  - destroyed against, returning Baker Mayfield and the Bucks.
• 35:15
  - That was their season on the line. Panthers
• 35:17
  - are a 500 team. They're gonna be up
• 35:18
  - and down all year. They'll probably end up
• 35:20
  - winning the division,
• 35:22
  - but, you know, I know I know I
• 35:24
  - know everyone's gonna want the the Packers on
• 35:27
  - this one.
• 35:28
  - I I just... I don't know. I just
• 35:30
  - don't think they're, you know, they're they're the
• 35:32
  - juggernaut that everybody thinks they're gonna, you know,
• 35:34
  - turn out to be. This is the same
• 35:36
  - Jordan Love that, you know, he's had a
• 35:37
  - playoff game before. He hasn't won it. So
• 35:40
  - I I I don't I don't see the
• 35:41
  - Packers as this, you know, top five team
• 35:44
  - in the NFC that others do. And and
• 35:46
  - I think, Bryce Young has been very good.
• 35:47
  - I'm gonna give him a mulligan for last
• 35:49
  - week, and I think that Carolina rebounds.
• 35:52
  - That's fair. I think you're gonna have a
• 35:54
  - lot of people,
• 35:56
  - fading you and matching that bet. So if
• 35:59
  - you jump on in and put some put
• 36:01
  - some, skin in the game on the Panthers
• 36:03
  - or even some coins,
• 36:05
  - I think I would actually take the Packers
• 36:06
  - on this. I feel like the Panthers are
• 36:08
  - strong enough. And I think the Packers are
• 36:10
  - an inconsistent team for sure. They're in disarray
• 36:13
  - as well. They don't look
• 36:14
  - super great. But I think if you've got
• 36:16
  - a team that's probably more likely to click
• 36:19
  - at a certain point,
• 36:20
  - I feel like it's the Packers, and the
• 36:22
  - Panthers have just been so wobbly and super
• 36:24
  - inconsistent.
• 36:26
  - And, you know, I just don't think they
• 36:27
  - can stand up. Alright. Ravens Bills.
• 36:31
  - Ugh. Lamar. Lamar. Lamar.
• 36:32
  - Lamar. Lamar.
• 36:34
  - Oh, man.
• 36:35
  - You know, the Bills have no defense. Every
• 36:37
  - week, they have to win with a Josh
• 36:39
  - Allen Superman,
• 36:40
  - you know, performance every single week.
• 36:43
  - I don't think that
• 36:45
  - they're this good. A Patriots show that.
• 36:48
  - I think the Ravens...
• 36:50
  - I think everyone's had enough of Snoop Huntley.
• 36:52
  - You shouldn't have a nickname if you're a
• 36:53
  - backup quarterback. Okay? I'm sorry. It's just not
• 36:56
  - permitted.
• 36:57
  - Lamar
• 36:58
  - Jackson
• 36:59
  - has to get the the Ravens back on
• 37:01
  - track here. It's a really, really tough division.
• 37:04
  - They are four and three. This is a
• 37:05
  - must win. You know, the Steelers,
• 37:08
  - are playing the Browns this week. And, you
• 37:10
  - know, if the Steelers win, they're... They get
• 37:12
  - up to what? Six and two? I mean,
• 37:14
  - you cannot fall behind your arrival that far
• 37:17
  - with a loss here. I have to think
• 37:20
  - the Ravens are gonna rise up, and they
• 37:21
  - have a history of doing that here too
• 37:22
  - with the with the Bills. Give me Baltimore
• 37:25
  - here,
• 37:26
  - and, actually,
• 37:27
  - taking taking a little, taking some... Taking the
• 37:30
  - the money line at, I see plus $1.65.
• 37:34
  - Wow. Okay. I couldn't disagree more. So that's
• 37:37
  - perfect. We got a match. I think the
• 37:39
  - Bills are gonna decimate the Ravens. Will Lamar
• 37:41
  - be back next week? Ugh.
• 37:44
  - And is he strong enough? Say that this
• 37:46
  - is this is under protest because I don't
• 37:48
  - know if he's playing or not. This is
• 37:50
  - only on if it is confirmed
• 37:52
  - that he is playing by,
• 37:54
  - injuries are usually confirmed by 11:30
• 37:57
  - eastern on Sunday morning. Mhmm. Yep.
• 38:00
  - I I I still don't think... Okay. Look.
• 38:02
  - I'm gonna get a lot of hate for
• 38:03
  - this one. I've always thought Lamar Jackson, and
• 38:05
  - I I have nothing against the guy. I
• 38:06
  - think he's a fine guy. I think he's
• 38:08
  - highly overrated. I don't think he's MVP. He's
• 38:10
  - never proven himself in the playoffs.
• 38:12
  - He can scramble. He can throw, but he
• 38:14
  - also chokes just as much as he plays.
• 38:17
  - I just think they chokes Watch for a
• 38:19
  - fumble or two from Cook today in that
• 38:21
  - game. Oh, sure. Yeah. Maybe. Maybe. But you
• 38:23
  - also saw the Bengals decimate the Ravens in
• 38:27
  - the fourth quarter with, like, five touchdowns.
• 38:30
  - So I... Look. I... It depends on whether
• 38:33
  - Lamar is back and whether Lamar is healthy,
• 38:34
  - but the Bills, even though they have... And,
• 38:36
  - like, defensive issues are huge across the board
• 38:38
  - with these high powered offensive teams.
• 38:41
  - Right, the Lions, the Bills,
• 38:43
  - I just don't think the Ravens are gonna
• 38:45
  - be able
• 38:46
  - to handle it.
• 38:48
  - But, again, you know,
• 38:50
  - the Bills have been so inconsistent that, yeah,
• 38:53
  - I I I don't feel like I would
• 38:55
  - die on that hill, and I also wouldn't
• 38:56
  - be embarrassed if if the Ravens did smoke
• 38:59
  - the bills because he got, like, these wild
• 39:01
  - inconsistencies week to week. Sometimes the bills look
• 39:03
  - unbeatable Yes. And then they just get... They
• 39:05
  - they just get hammered. So it is what
• 39:07
  - it is. Alright. This one,
• 39:09
  - Titan's
• 39:11
  - Bengals. Alright. Titan's Bengals. Let's go. That is
• 39:13
  - a,
• 39:14
  - an interesting matchup.
• 39:16
  - I really don't wanna touch it. But,
• 39:19
  - No. I don't think anybody wants to touch
• 39:21
  - that one, but, hey. Yeah. I mean, Joe
• 39:23
  - Burrow is is, starting to round into form
• 39:26
  - here.
• 39:27
  - Cincinnati's already had their buy, so they're not
• 39:29
  - run down. Oh, man. They're at home.
• 39:33
  - I I... Do you... That's a lot of
• 39:35
  - money to lay, I know, on a money
• 39:36
  - line.
• 39:38
  - It is. I wouldn't take the money line
• 39:39
  - on that game if you if you paid
• 39:41
  - me to do it.
• 39:42
  - I would do... If you're gonna play on
• 39:44
  - the Titans Bengals, I don't think that the
• 39:46
  - Titans stand a chance.
• 39:48
  - They've looked terrible. They're in disarray as well,
• 39:51
  - terrible coaching.
• 39:54
  - Their offensive line, their defensive line are pretty
• 39:56
  - weak in very critical areas. I would do...
• 39:59
  - If you did anything here, 46 and a
• 40:01
  - half, could be a Bengals blowout. You might
• 40:03
  - wanna play on the over just to get
• 40:05
  - a bit of value out of that.
• 40:07
  - But there's not a ton of value in
• 40:09
  - this game beyond kinda looking at it, having
• 40:11
  - fun, and,
• 40:12
  - you know, off you go.
• 40:15
  - Brown Steelers.
• 40:17
  - We gotta rifle through some of these. Yeah.
• 40:20
  - Alright.
• 40:21
  - I'm
• 40:23
  - The redemption of the redemption.
• 40:27
  - Yeah. I... Look. They're they're The redemption is
• 40:29
  - a lot of travel. That's a lot of
• 40:31
  - travel back. They're they're at home here.
• 40:34
  - Yeah. I'm gonna take the Browns. Like, another
• 40:37
  - another away team. I think they win this
• 40:38
  - game outright, in a close one.
• 40:41
  - We gotta we gotta pick up our pace,
• 40:43
  - though. We're we're lollygagging
• 40:45
  - through these.
• 40:46
  - That's right. Browns
• 40:48
  - win... But how about this, Dan? I love
• 40:50
  - the money line. Like like last week with
• 40:52
  - minus two ninety and the Vikings beating the
• 40:53
  - Colts, I'm hammering against the Colts again this
• 40:56
  - week. Jags are off a bye week. They're...
• 40:58
  - I Jags are Yeah. Yeah. I think I
• 41:00
  - think, you know, they're minus 300 or so
• 41:02
  - here.
• 41:03
  - Love. And by the way, the Colts just
• 41:05
  - traded away with the... One of their top
• 41:06
  - offensive lineman, Nelson. So they're already starting to
• 41:08
  - get rid of players,
• 41:10
  - and and fold it, you know, fold the
• 41:12
  - season down here. Love the Jaguars at home
• 41:14
  - here. Yeah. No. The the cold still stands
• 41:16
  - a chance. The Jags are too too strong
• 41:18
  - across the board. Cardinals, Cowboys.
• 41:22
  - I gotta go Cowboys.
• 41:24
  - I gotta go Cardinals. I think there's value
• 41:26
  - in that money line.
• 41:28
  - Interesting. The cards have been very surprising
• 41:30
  - and very, very straight. And the Cowboys are
• 41:33
  - not a strong team.
• 41:35
  - Vikings, lions, we already touched on that one.
• 41:38
  - Yep.
• 41:39
  - Raiders, jets. You know, did the Raiders finally
• 41:41
  - get another win after being three and o
• 41:43
  - and then... And losing a bunch here? I
• 41:45
  - have to think yes. I mean, they've been
• 41:46
  - competitive in some of those games, and Jets
• 41:48
  - just aren't competitive enough. Although, I do like
• 41:50
  - the progress of Braylon Allen in the, absence
• 41:53
  - of,
• 41:54
  - Breece Hall at running back. But give me
• 41:56
  - the Raiders to win that one. I'm gonna
• 41:58
  - take the Jets on that, and that's pretty
• 42:00
  - much a pick in that minus one zero
• 42:01
  - two Yeah. And plus one zero two on
• 42:03
  - the money line. I think, you gotta give
• 42:05
  - some props to good old Geno Smith. He
• 42:07
  - never gets his due, but he's been playing
• 42:09
  - great this season. He stood up as a
• 42:11
  - leader.
• 42:13
  - Brees is predicted maybe he's coming back in
• 42:17
  - week eight. They want him back hard, and
• 42:18
  - he wants to be back. I'm actually gonna
• 42:21
  - take the jets on this one.
• 42:23
  - But we'll see what happens. Falcons, Bucs. Bucs
• 42:26
  - here,
• 42:27
  - you know, the Falcons are for
• 42:29
  - for real. They're for real in the sense
• 42:30
  - that they're competitive.
• 42:32
  - I think the the win by the Buccaneers
• 42:34
  - last week against Carolina,
• 42:36
  - is... Has really distorted the... This this odd...
• 42:39
  - The odds here. I think the I think
• 42:40
  - the Falcons should be favored by more. Their
• 42:42
  - defense is good. And when they throw to
• 42:44
  - Kyle Pitts,
• 42:45
  - they're a completely different team. It's not just
• 42:47
  - Drake London, Drake London, and and Bijon Robinson.
• 42:50
  - So I think the Falcons are becoming more
• 42:52
  - diverse. Panix is becoming, you know, more,
• 42:55
  - more in control of that offense and not
• 42:57
  - just, you know, scrambling and and and throwing
• 42:59
  - five yard passes. Give me, give me Atlanta
• 43:01
  - to win there in in Tampa.
• 43:03
  - I think the Bucks are too weak of
• 43:05
  - a team, and Baker, although he's back, has
• 43:07
  - been super inconsistent
• 43:08
  - this season. Hard to rely on him. The
• 43:11
  - Falcons have oddly, with panics, come into
• 43:14
  - hitting a bit of a groove. And, again,
• 43:16
  - as a Saints fan, that hurts my heart
• 43:18
  - to say that, but it is what it
• 43:20
  - is. They're not a bad team at all.
• 43:22
  - And they could be they could be in
• 43:24
  - for some surprises there. I definitely,
• 43:26
  - by the way, think that the Falcons take
• 43:28
  - the NFC south.
• 43:30
  - Mhmm. Interesting. Yeah. Yeah. Chargers, Rams?
• 43:33
  - Yeah. The,
• 43:34
  - nobody's home game. I mean, those fan bases
• 43:37
  - are very small, and, there's play... They both
• 43:39
  - play in the same stadium. So, you know,
• 43:41
  - clearly, it's a it's a friendly confines for
• 43:43
  - the chargers on the, quote, unquote,
• 43:45
  - road
• 43:46
  - here. I can't be the one to pick
• 43:48
  - the chargers to win their first game here.
• 43:50
  - I think the Rams, even with the injuries,
• 43:52
  - even with the injuries,
• 43:55
  - have shown that they can get the job
• 43:56
  - done, like, you know, with... As long as
• 43:59
  - Nakua and and Kyron Williams and Korem are
• 44:01
  - are there with Stafford, they're gonna score enough
• 44:03
  - points. Give me the Rams.
• 44:05
  - Oh, yeah. I don't think that this is
• 44:06
  - even,
• 44:08
  - this is even a discussion.
• 44:10
  - The the Chargers are a bad mess. Chiefs
• 44:12
  - Broncos.
• 44:13
  - Yeah. That's a tough one. Now Denver plays
• 44:15
  - the Chiefs tough under Sean Payton. This is
• 44:18
  - a back and forth. You're seeing some places
• 44:20
  - have it at one and a half in
• 44:22
  - favor of the visiting Chiefs off their first
• 44:24
  - loss of the year.
• 44:26
  - Divisional game, really, really tough. If you're making
• 44:29
  - me pick, I'll take the home team,
• 44:33
  - but I don't like it a lot. Give
• 44:35
  - me... But give me Denver.
• 44:37
  - Yeah.
• 44:38
  - I think that's fair to say. I think
• 44:40
  - one thing is Sean Payton plays to his
• 44:42
  - opponents.
• 44:43
  - He's very good at that, so you're gonna
• 44:46
  - have a battle of Andy Reid versus Sean
• 44:48
  - Payton. So you should see some very interesting
• 44:51
  - plays popping up from 1911 and different things
• 44:53
  - that they're gonna be doing. Yeah. Not a
• 44:55
  - ton of value in this game. I think,
• 44:58
  - again, when you start to really read those
• 45:00
  - lines when you're trading sports and you start
• 45:01
  - to see what the bookmakers are saying, What
• 45:04
  - they are saying here is that they're... They've
• 45:06
  - pretty much got it down to a pick
• 45:07
  - them with a bit of a home field
• 45:08
  - advantage,
• 45:09
  - for the Broncos and the altitude advantage for
• 45:12
  - the Broncos.
• 45:13
  - I do think that some of this is
• 45:15
  - a hangover from the Seahawks,
• 45:18
  - for obvious reasons, figuring out how to stop
• 45:20
  - Kenneth Walker the third. You can be damn
• 45:22
  - sure that Sean Payton and his defensive,
• 45:26
  - coordinator and that entire squad are watching the
• 45:29
  - tapes from that game to see how to
• 45:31
  - shut down Kenneth Walker.
• 45:33
  - So, yeah, I think it's a fair pick
• 45:35
  - to go Broncos. Yeah. Pass Dolphins.
• 45:37
  - Yeah. I mean, Dolphins got there for their
• 45:39
  - only win. Could be their only win all
• 45:40
  - year. So they got it last week. It's
• 45:42
  - enough.
• 45:43
  - Patriots are gonna win by 20 points there.
• 45:45
  - They don't have a margin for error. They're
• 45:47
  - looking up the bills every week in the
• 45:48
  - standings. They do not have a margin for
• 45:50
  - error. I think the Patriots win, quite handily
• 45:53
  - in that one.
• 45:54
  - Okay.
• 45:55
  - You know what? I have a little bit
• 45:57
  - of faith in Malik Willis and Ollie Gardner
• 45:59
  - the second. They've been,
• 46:01
  - looking really good. They're gonna hit a stride.
• 46:04
  - I'm actually I'm tempted to say it's an
• 46:06
  - upset on the money line because I still
• 46:08
  - don't think that the Pats are a very
• 46:10
  - good team. But that might be a bit
• 46:12
  - of a stretch yet. I will say that
• 46:15
  - you could take the Dolphins to cover the
• 46:17
  - spread on this one.
• 46:19
  - I think that the the books are overvaluing,
• 46:22
  - how good the Pats will be against the
• 46:24
  - Dolphins. And I think that you've got some
• 46:26
  - surprises in story. Like I said, you got
• 46:28
  - Ollie Gardner the second
• 46:30
  - racking up points
• 46:32
  - and getting a ton of run,
• 46:35
  - and they're settling in a bit. So cover
• 46:38
  - I'll be making fun of you. Miami on
• 46:39
  - the on the spread. Okay. Let's see what
• 46:41
  - happens if they cover that spread.
• 46:43
  - The Dolphins. Yeah. We we talked an ATS
• 46:46
  - win.
• 46:47
  - Hey. Yes. We we Gotta go out there.
• 46:50
  - We we we talked to Eagles commanders already.
• 46:52
  - So finally, as we close out the show
• 46:54
  - here, bears at the Seahawks. Now the Seahawks
• 46:57
  - got their biggest win of the year against
• 46:59
  - Kansas City, with the niners losing and the
• 47:01
  - Seahawks still playing the niners once more this
• 47:04
  - year. It puts a little bit of pressure
• 47:05
  - back on San Francisco in their bye week
• 47:08
  - here for, you know, coming out. They gotta
• 47:09
  - win some more games. But the Bears are
• 47:11
  - just a juggernaut right now. Caleb Williams looks
• 47:13
  - like he never even was injured.
• 47:16
  - You know, Swift has been carrying,
• 47:18
  - enough of the rock without Manungi in that
• 47:21
  - backfield.
• 47:21
  - Rashawn Johnson's been contributing as well. You never
• 47:25
  - know which tight end they're gonna throw to
• 47:26
  - Loveland or Komet.
• 47:28
  - Burden is a speedster.
• 47:30
  - They're just a hard team. Doonsay,
• 47:32
  - obviously as well. They're a hard team to
• 47:34
  - stop offensively.
• 47:36
  - So I like the over more than I
• 47:37
  - like the bears outright here, But until the
• 47:41
  - Seahawks show me that they have a running
• 47:42
  - game, I'm not gonna take them seriously even
• 47:44
  - at home. Give me the bears.
• 47:46
  - Hey. Not bad.
• 47:48
  - You know, say what you will. I think
• 47:49
  - this was the NFC championship last year, wasn't
• 47:51
  - it?
• 47:53
  - And this is a bit of a rematch.
• 47:54
  - There's a bit of a grudge match happening
• 47:56
  - here, and we all know what happened there
• 47:58
  - with, Caleb Williams last year in that championship
• 48:01
  - game that,
• 48:02
  - saw them almost come back.
• 48:05
  - Looking great. Look, Caleb Williams is fun to
• 48:08
  - watch. That's a high powered offense.
• 48:11
  - You can't dismiss the Bears.
• 48:14
  - You know,
• 48:15
  - I think they could surprise the Seahawks. The
• 48:18
  - only thing is the twelfth man. The Seahawks
• 48:21
  - at home
• 48:22
  - are super strong
• 48:23
  - that I have been to that stadium
• 48:26
  - several times when I lived out on the
• 48:27
  - West Coast. You cannot describe how loud that
• 48:31
  - stadium actually gets for being an outdoor stadium
• 48:33
  - the way they have that thing designed. So
• 48:35
  - if there's any edge, I would give it
• 48:37
  - to the Seahawks. It's with the twelfth man,
• 48:39
  - but the Bears are gonna be out for
• 48:41
  - blood. And, you know, Ben Johnson is not
• 48:43
  - the happiest guy in the world generally.
• 48:46
  - He is known for aggressive play and aggressive
• 48:48
  - offense, and I think I think there's a
• 48:50
  - bit of a grudge match happening here from
• 48:52
  - last year's playoffs.
• 48:53
  - The bears have something to prove. So
• 48:56
  - I would coin toss
• 48:58
  - coin toss this one, but,
• 49:01
  - I wouldn't, I'm I'm not gonna rake you
• 49:03
  - over the coals for taking the bears on
• 49:04
  - that one at all. I'd be very possible.
• 49:06
  - The bears play in in confines like Green
• 49:08
  - Bay and Chicago every year in Detroit, so
• 49:11
  - I'm not too worried about the the noise
• 49:13
  - level. Niners beat them this year, in Seattle.
• 49:16
  - It's gonna be it's gonna be a a
• 49:17
  - fun game, though. That's the point.
• 49:19
  - A reminder here as we, we get ready
• 49:22
  - to sign off that we are brought to
• 49:23
  - you by t s m x,
• 49:25
  - dot I o. And remember
• 49:28
  - remember
• 49:30
  - that it is licensed in 22 states plus
• 49:33
  - DC, so check out the website, see,
• 49:36
  - see if, you know, about opening an account.
• 49:38
  - We remind you, of course, that it's 21
• 49:40
  - and over
• 49:41
  - and that,
• 49:43
  - you should play responsibly.
• 49:45
  - All of us do.
• 49:46
  - If you or someone you know has a
• 49:48
  - gambling problem, you wanna call 1800.
• 49:52
  - Absolutely.
• 49:53
  - Any final thoughts for you, Dan, other than
• 49:54
  - the fact that we remind you about the
• 49:56
  - Discord link in,
• 49:58
  - the YouTube? Absolutely.
• 50:00
  - I would say one thing. Don't forget the
• 50:02
  - sportsbooks need you to lose. That's how they
• 50:04
  - make money. We need you to win. There's
• 50:06
  - one good reason to play at tsmx.io.
• 50:09
  - That's the one.
• 50:11
  - The House Never Wins episode number one fifteen
• 50:15
  - in the books. We'll talk to you next
• 50:17
  - time.
• 50:18
  - Peace.