Latest / Financial Survival Network / GDP Rises, Debt and Tariffs Loom - Ted Thatcher #6271

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GDP Rises, Debt and Tariffs Loom - Ted Thatcher #6271 · Financial Survival Network

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: If we zoom out just the hair to the GDP
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: figures that were released, you know, seeing that decline of
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: thirty basis points er point three percent. If you kind
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: of dig in there, a lot of that was caused
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: by a government spending decrease by quarter percent, which I
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: think is a really good thing and hopefully you know continues.
• 0:21
  Speaker 2: You're listening to Carrie Lutz's Financial Survival Network, where you
• 0:25
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• 0:29
  Speaker 2: thrive in today's trying times. You need the Financial Survival
• 0:33
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• 0:38
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• 0:43
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• 0:49
  Speaker 3: And welcome. You are listening to watching the Financial Survival Network.
• 0:54
  Speaker 3: I'm your host, Carrie Letz. After a month long hiatus
• 0:57
  Speaker 3: traveling the world Europe and Asia, I am back, energized
• 1:02
  Speaker 3: and ready to do this. We got some job numbers
• 1:05
  Speaker 3: just came out. Markets have been crazy while I've been away.
• 1:09
  Speaker 3: We're talking with head Thatcher and Ted. Great to have
• 1:13
  Speaker 3: you back on the show. So what about these job numbers?
• 1:17
  Speaker 3: Is it just part of the continuing narrative or is
• 1:19
  Speaker 3: it real?
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: Great question Carrie. It's always good to be with you
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: and see you again. You know, Honestly, the numbers came
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: in really close to expectations, and really we're just getting
• 1:31
  Speaker 1: more of the same. The unemployment rate still sits at
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: four point two percent. The non farm payrolls basically show
• 1:37
  Speaker 1: one hundred and seventy seven thousand dollars or excuse me,
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: one hundred and seventy seven thousand jobs that were created,
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: basically again keeping that number kind of status quo. My
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: eye always goes to the revisions, which you know, of
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: course we're getting more of, and then it just tells
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: you again and again the way they collect this data
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: is so convoluted and it's so old school. Now, March
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: is revised down to one hundred and eighty five thousand
• 2:03
  Speaker 1: from the two hundred and twenty eight thousand dollars that
• 2:06
  Speaker 1: were two hundred and twenty eight thousand that were originally printed,
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: and then February was even revised further down to one
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  Speaker 1: hundred and.
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: Two thousand, one hundred two, which is like barely treading
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: water here. But it's no wonder with all these federal
• 2:21
  Speaker 3: employees getting shown the door.
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: Right, well, sure, yeah, and you know, when you walk
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: through those federal buildings, you see nothing but empty desks anyway,
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: So of course it begs the question as to what
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: was getting done, if anything. And so you know, interestingly,
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: even you know, if we zoom out just a hair
• 2:40
  Speaker 1: to the GDP figures that were released, you know, seeing
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: that decline of thirty basis points or point three percent,
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: if you kind of dig in there, a lot of
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: that was caused by a government spending decrease by a
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: quarter percent, which I think is a really good thing
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: and hopefully you know, continues.
• 3:01
  Speaker 3: Yeah, well that was a first, right, pretty remarkable seeing
• 3:06
  Speaker 3: government spending drop by anything.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: Well, right, it usually only goes one direction, doesn't it.
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: It's always there's another thing to buy, another thing to
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: pay for. And you know, the light that was shown
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: on everything with US eight, I think really has a
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: lot of Americans, you know, thankful that there's somebody keeping.
• 3:24
  Speaker 4: An eye on the waist fraud and abuse.
• 3:26
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, for the first time ever in our lifetimes, right.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: Yeah, absolutely, I mean, you know we've seen these you know,
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: I guess trends toward it or talking points. There's a
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: little bit that was done around Reagan, even you know,
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: Clinton at times it's been a bipartisan priority to you know,
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: cut government spending or at least keep an eye on it.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: But I think that the light that's being shown on
• 3:48
  Speaker 1: it now, you know, hopefully is actually well hopefully it
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: actually permeates and doesn't tread backwards now that Elon is
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: stepping out of the picture.
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: Yeah, I think Elon wasn't actually doing the work there.
• 4:04
  Speaker 3: And guys like big Balls, even though it's a family show,
• 4:09
  Speaker 3: that's his name, he was doing the heavy lifting. And
• 4:13
  Speaker 3: there's a lot of like CEOs involved, people I wouldn't
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: have expected to be who you know from tech companies. Yeah,
• 4:23
  Speaker 3: it's like, look, if you got a case of amnesia
• 4:27
  Speaker 3: and you wanted to figure out where you spent all
• 4:29
  Speaker 3: your money for the past year, what would you do.
• 4:33
  Speaker 3: You'd go look at your check register, right, and well,
• 4:38
  Speaker 3: you know, figure out where the money came from and
• 4:40
  Speaker 3: where it went. And I think they're just at the
• 4:43
  Speaker 3: tip of the iceberg here, honestly tied.
• 4:45
  Speaker 4: You know, I think so.
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  Speaker 1: And I think interestingly this efficiency initiative has gotten such
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: a a politicized this gotten way too politicized a coverage.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: You know, again, this should be a like what American
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: is interested in, you know, sweeping all this waste, fraud
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: and abuse under the RUG. I don't talk to any
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: anybody that has an issue with it, but it seems
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: like there's a fever pitch about whether we should be
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: doing this or not. Sure, of course, there's some things
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: that the government spends money on that are positive, but
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: when it's so widespread, that's where the issue comes. And
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: I do think that, you know, there's only one response
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: to anything Trump does for a lot of people out there,
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: and that is just only a criticism. And I think
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: we have to take a step back and actually say, okay,
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: you know, let's evaluate the the things that are being
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: done and that have changed. You know, obviously everybody even
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: talks about, of course what's going on with tariffs, and
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: you know they every time the market ticks down, even
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: on one basis point, they want to criticize Trump for it,
• 5:53
  Speaker 1: but they won't give them any of the credit either.
• 5:56
  Speaker 4: On the good days.
• 5:58
  Speaker 3: Yeah, yeah, could not agree with you more. And the
• 6:02
  Speaker 3: kind of exciting to see it actually happen, I never
• 6:06
  Speaker 3: believe you would live to see the day. And it
• 6:10
  Speaker 3: just shows you how corrupt the whole thing is, with
• 6:12
  Speaker 3: all of those people screaming and you know, wanting, uh,
• 6:17
  Speaker 3: wanting to end doge for the benefit of the public.
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: I mean, come on, yeah, for the benefit of the public.
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: That's a tongue in cheek right coming out of Washington,
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: d C. And sometimes it's for the benefit of the
• 6:30
  Speaker 1: uh the uh, well, the special interests, right, I mean,
• 6:35
  Speaker 1: I mean, we'll see if we can get some more
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: clarity on these trade deals too. I think hopefully the
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: you know, it's often been cited by the administration as
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: a negotiation tactic to get these countries to come to
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: the table. And you know, there's some estimates that are
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: now being shown because they've made some progress here on
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: these trade deals, that it could be as much as
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: a trillion dollars now already with commitments of investments back
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: into the United States.
• 7:05
  Speaker 4: And I think that that's a really good thing as well.
• 7:08
  Speaker 3: Amazing, huh, really amazing. So well, you know, what do
• 7:12
  Speaker 3: you think is next. We're going to see these trade
• 7:15
  Speaker 3: deals and we're going to see positive steps towards really
• 7:20
  Speaker 3: reigning in the government and making it fulfill its constitutional duties.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Well, I don't know if I'm that hopeful that everything
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: or on one of our dreams might come true. You know,
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: I do think that there's gonna, you know, hopefully this
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: initiative continues. That there is oversight and over overspending right
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: in terms of what's actually next with the trade deals,
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: you know, I think what the market has been dealing
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: with really throughout this whole you know, everything that's happened
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: since April second, is just a very high level of uncertainty.
• 7:55
  Speaker 4: The market, you know, it just hates not knowing what
• 7:57
  Speaker 4: to expect.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: And so when we have the high tariff and then
• 7:59
  Speaker 1: the draw back down and then the spotlight gets placed
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: on China, it just is trying to figure out how.
• 8:05
  Speaker 4: To price it all in.
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: And so what's next is pen the paper on these
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: trade deals. The market needs to see them in action
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: so that it can stabilize, so that it can properly
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  Speaker 1: price in all of this, well what has been uncertainty
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: and make it, you know, basically come back to normal.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: Also in terms of what comes next, I think everybody's
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: got their eye on Jerme Powell this week, especially after
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: all the criticism he's earned from the President, and honestly,
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: I think Powell has faced a tremendous amount of political
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: pressure and honestly societal pressure for pressure to lower, of course,
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: and I don't honestly think that we're going to get
• 8:41
  Speaker 1: it this week.
• 8:42
  Speaker 3: Yeah. Well, you know banks don't make enough money.
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, we should talk to Jamie Diamond about that
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: after the earnings.
• 8:49
  Speaker 4: Jeez, you know, we'll see what they do.
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: I don't expect Powell to lower I think given the
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: labor data we got, given you know, the GDP figure
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: that we've got, Betis isn't going to show the data
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: that he wants to see, you know. And honestly, if
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: I had to guess, if you made me predict something,
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: I think we're more likely to see Trump all have
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: missed her too late.
• 9:15
  Speaker 3: Yet again, wit, better late than never.
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: Well we'll see if yeah, well when the time comes right,
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: better late than never. But he's he's I think earned
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: that criticism.
• 9:26
  Speaker 4: You know. I think it's very obvious that Powell.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: Waited too long to raise interest rates. I mean, you
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: remember it was March of twenty twenty two before he
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: started raising, and inflation was a far you know, raging
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: in a far gone over conclusion at that point.
• 9:41
  Speaker 3: So true, ay, and of you know, it's he's caught
• 9:47
  Speaker 3: on tape where a FED insiders coat on tape saying
• 9:51
  Speaker 3: how much he despised Trump, which there's shock because the
• 9:56
  Speaker 3: ultimate deep state institution, really the first one perhaps is FED,
• 10:03
  Speaker 3: and I think that he hates Trump.
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: You know, Oh, there's gambling going on here, right, Oh yeah, yeah, surprise, surprise.
• 10:13
  Speaker 1: I mean, I think that there's been a lot of infighting. Honestly,
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: I don't think the market likes it. You know, obviously
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: you saw the volatility when Trump criticized him. The truth
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: is is, I think if they can make the data
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: case and I think that that it does exist, that
• 10:29
  Speaker 1: it's time to start softening rates. Then you know, I
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: think honestly, not only would did administration be happy, but
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: I think most Americans would.
• 10:38
  Speaker 4: You know, most Americans sixty percent carry a credit card balance.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: And think about just the relief that would have a normal, hardworking,
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: everyday American.
• 10:48
  Speaker 3: Hey, you know what I would love to see? What
• 10:52
  Speaker 3: is that I would love to see the administration put
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: a cap on credit card rates?
• 11:02
  Speaker 4: Yeah? Sure, no, I think go ahead.
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: Sorry, yeah, there's like, there's no justification for rates being
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: this high, certainly not for non defaulted debt eight it
• 11:12
  Speaker 3: defaults thirty percent a year, but it is just exploitative
• 11:17
  Speaker 3: and it really doesn't do anyone any good. So what
• 11:20
  Speaker 3: it does is enables people, enables people to buy stuff
• 11:24
  Speaker 3: that they don't need from companies that don't make it
• 11:27
  Speaker 3: in this country.
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: Sure, you know, I think it puts people behind the
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: eight ball, and it's I mean, that's the other thing
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: I think is it does rob a lot of Americans
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: from an opportunity at the American dream, you know, I mean,
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: how can you be hopeful and excited when you're drowning
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: in a thirty percent APR? I mean, you can't he
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: debt slave? Well, exactly. I think that's a good way
• 11:48
  Speaker 1: to put it. Sadly, I will say this too. I mean,
• 11:52
  Speaker 1: not to go back to the tariffs, but I think
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: it's interesting enough that you have such a drastic shift
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: in economic policy, you know, with these tariffs getting thrown
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: into sort of the world trade routes as a toll booth.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: And you know, if you look at where the market's
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: at off of it's high, it's literally only off seven percent.
• 12:12
  Speaker 1: Now obviously that's a you know, a big move, but
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: that's from the high much less from the.
• 12:18
  Speaker 4: Quote unquote Liberation Day on April second.
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: And that really is only I want to say, it
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: depends on where the markets at, you know, at the
• 12:25
  Speaker 1: very moment, but around four percent off. I mean, she's
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: four percent off the all time high. And we have
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: a new spotlight on these trade imbalances.
• 12:37
  Speaker 4: The administration didn't lie to us.
• 12:39
  Speaker 1: They said that there was going to be a little
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: bit of medicine that had to be taken. And you know,
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: if it all, if we zoom out after another nine
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: months or year, and this is all we had to
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: pay for it, I think that there's an argument we
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: made that Americans are getting a good deal there.
• 12:55
  Speaker 3: You know, financial enemas are never pleasant.
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: No, yeah, no, there's a little bit of a pain
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: to go with the game, right, yeah, well to be expected.
• 13:08
  Speaker 3: All right, Hey, just tell us again where we find you,
• 13:11
  Speaker 3: How we connect with you on the web.
• 13:13
  Speaker 4: Yeah, sure, easy to find our website Brightlakewealth dot com.
• 13:16
  Speaker 3: All right, links in the show notes this interview on
• 13:19
  Speaker 3: Financial Survival Network dot com.
• 13:21
  Speaker 4: Go there.
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: Please sign up for your free newsletter like we're up
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: to eighty thousand already and believe it, and we'll send
• 13:30
  Speaker 3: you out some good info and you'll be happy you did.
• 13:33
  Speaker 4: Bet.
• 13:34
  Speaker 3: Thanks for stopping by. We'll talk to you again real soon.
• 13:36
  Speaker 2: Thanks Jared, thanks for listening to Carrie Let's this. Financial
• 13:40
  Speaker 2: Survival Network your solution to today's trying times. For the latest,
• 13:45
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• 13:51
  Speaker 2: more than ever,