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NCAAB + NHL + NBA Best Bets Monday 1/26/26 · Toadstool Sports

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Yep. Inside I want to kill myself. We are on
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: OWN seven run over the last two days after tonight
• 0:08
  Speaker 1: it was just complete bullshit. So that's that's I'm gonna
• 0:11
  Speaker 1: start off this show horrible Sunday one and five. I
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: don't even know what to tell you above that I
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: just don't want to do this anymore. I have never
• 0:20
  Speaker 1: seen anything like this. Man with the slump continuing. Two
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: straight losses, not a good day at all. Own four
• 0:28
  Speaker 1: that have not had a good season. Man with wookends
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: the slump that I'm on, and the slump continues. I've
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: reached a new peak. Actually, I'm going to burn my
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: Bruins hack Man, I don't know what is going on
• 0:43
  Speaker 1: with the Bruins arch hape? Is that what it is?
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: I don't even know it's It's March ninth, I think
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: who even knows? Man, I don't know what data is anymore.
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: But I don't even know what data is anymore. Man,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: back with you after the worst day that I can
• 0:58
  Speaker 1: possibly have, Back with you as I always am until
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: I die at least oh and two. Yesterday and yesterday
• 1:06
  Speaker 1: did not go well for me. Own five the worst
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: month that I've ever had in my eighteen years doing this.
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know what to even tell you about this anymore.
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: The slumpyesterdays, the slump, discontinus, the slump continues. Somebody fucking
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: kill me, please. I don't even know what I should
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: do at this point, other than potentially end it all.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: What's up? Everybody's towed back with you with Toadstool Sports Monday,
• 1:41
  Speaker 1: January twenty sixth. We only wound up with one play
• 1:44
  Speaker 1: yesterday because the Milwaukee Bucks game got postponed because their
• 1:49
  Speaker 1: plane got stuck on the tarmac. I don't know. There
• 1:52
  Speaker 1: were two postponed NBA games yesterday, and the other was Memphis.
• 1:56
  Speaker 1: I want to say due to weather or something which
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: gives us a better play today on one of the
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: NBA games. So whatever, We got the winner with the
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: Denver Broncos plus the points, so we were one to
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: zero yesterday. They really I think they should have won
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: the game. Man, I mean you're talking about dude. Everybody's
• 2:14
  Speaker 1: hailing Drake May. Oh, Drake May went through these huge,
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: like these great defenses. He's awesome. I'm like, did you
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: watch any of the games. Drake May had like five
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: hundred combined yards across three games in the playoffs, and
• 2:27
  Speaker 1: he said whatever I said, three turnovers, four turnovers whatever
• 2:31
  Speaker 1: it is, and four touchdowns something like that. His touchdown
• 2:34
  Speaker 1: interception ratio in the playoffs is bad. He has six fumbles,
• 2:38
  Speaker 1: three loss fumbles held on to the ball yesterday that
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: I don't know if that's saying that much, but that
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: game was. It was very, very weird. May only had
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: eighty yards passing in the game yesterday. Denver dominated the
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: first half of that game. Denver was out to the
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: seven to nothing lead, and then they looked like they
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: were about to score again and make it a two
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: score game. And it was a point where Denver probably
• 3:02
  Speaker 1: was out yarding the Patriots like one forty to twenty
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: at that point. It's something like that. And then of
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: course everybody, all the armchair coaches or whatever are gonna
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: be like, Dentver shouldn't have gone for it. You got
• 3:14
  Speaker 1: to take the points, You got to take the field
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: goal there, because they went for an on a fourth
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: and short fourth and one. I think, like the Patriots
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: where they might have been in the red zone. Actually
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: I don't know, but those people are wrong. The analytics say,
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: Sean Payton is correct, you go for it. I don't
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: really hear many people saying the same thing about like
• 3:36
  Speaker 1: Sean McVay doing it towards the end of the game.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: But of course they needed, like needed a touchdown at
• 3:40
  Speaker 1: that point because they were down four. But the analytics
• 3:43
  Speaker 1: say to go for it. Both of those coaches were correct,
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: Like this is a it's a thing, man. People don't
• 3:49
  Speaker 1: understand like how the how the math actually works, Like
• 3:54
  Speaker 1: football has been coached this way for like so long,
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: and it's like ingrained in people. You got to take
• 3:59
  Speaker 1: the point eight the points will No, actually you don't.
• 4:02
  Speaker 1: I mean, I guess in the Denver game there was
• 4:04
  Speaker 1: more of an argument for it because it was such
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: a low scoring game. But no, generally, no, the analytics
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: say that you should go for it because I mean,
• 4:13
  Speaker 1: think about it. If you do that, if you take
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: the field goal, you're talking about getting six points on
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: two drives rather than there's like a fifty percent chance
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: and maybe more that you get it. And if basically,
• 4:26
  Speaker 1: if that's your chance you're gonna get a touchdown, then
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: that basically means you're gonna get a touchdown on one
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: of two of those drives, and seven points is better
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: than six. So people have a hard time understanding this.
• 4:41
  Speaker 1: I don't know why people haven't even harder time understanding
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: why when a team is down fourteen late in the
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: game and they score a touchdown, why the analytics say
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: you should go for two on that? And I'm telling
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: you that that's because it gives you better odds to
• 4:54
  Speaker 1: win the game, because you're factoring in the odds that
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: you can win the game in regulation, and you could
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: overtime completely and you still have the chance to tie
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: the game if you get that other touchdown, which you
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: need to anyway. So people don't understand this, man, They
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: just don't get it. But yeah, it's coaching math. But whatever.
• 5:15
  Speaker 1: I thought Denver was gonna win the game outright, They
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: did not. They lost ten to seven. They had a
• 5:19
  Speaker 1: missfield goal in the game. Neither quarterback did Mutch. Although
• 5:22
  Speaker 1: Stidham did outthrow Drake May in the game. I think
• 5:26
  Speaker 1: Stidham was I don't know, one hundred something yards passing.
• 5:29
  Speaker 1: He obviously didn't get over that total. I didn't expect
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: the snow to get as heavy as it did. That
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: game completely changed, man. It became a huge snow game,
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: which is I think it's fun and the NFL is
• 5:40
  Speaker 1: trying to get rid of that which I hate, this
• 5:43
  Speaker 1: trend towards roofed stadiums and whatever, I hate it, man,
• 5:47
  Speaker 1: Like these guys should play in the Cols. Some of
• 5:49
  Speaker 1: the best games have been these snow games. Man, even
• 5:52
  Speaker 1: though I hate Tom Brady and I hate the tuck
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: rule and that was the wrong call, but whatever, whatever,
• 5:59
  Speaker 1: I don't think I have too much else to say
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: about that. And then Seattle won in a much high
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: scoring game and probably should not have won the game.
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: The Rams out gained Seattle by eighty something yards in
• 6:10
  Speaker 1: the game, and the entire game flipped on a muffed
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: punt in the third quarter. If you didn't see that,
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: like the game was back and forth all throughout the
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: first half and then second half. Seattle was able to
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: open a multi score lead entirely because the Rams punt
• 6:26
  Speaker 1: returner could not feel the punt. There was nobody even
• 6:28
  Speaker 1: near him, and he just completely drops the ball, muffs
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: the punt, gives Seattle the ball at the seventeen yard line,
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: hands them a touchdown, and that completely swung the game.
• 6:38
  Speaker 1: And if that didn't happen, the Rams would have won
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: the game. And even given that, the Rams probably should
• 6:45
  Speaker 1: have won the game. Later in the game, they had
• 6:46
  Speaker 1: to drive deep into the red zone with about five
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: minutes left in the game maybe, I think by the
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: time they turned the ball over and downs. I think
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: it was probably with about three something left in the game.
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: But that drive got a little bit messed up. There
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: was a drop by I think Parkinson the tight end
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: that he was wide open, the pass was right there.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: I don't know how he dropped that ball, although I
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: think the Rams did get a first down after that anyway,
• 7:10
  Speaker 1: on a Stafford run, but then they could not get it.
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: They could not get the touchdown, and like I said,
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: they were down four, so you knew they were going
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: for it on fourth down there, like they're not gonna
• 7:20
  Speaker 1: take the field goal, even though I guess you could
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: debatably take the field goal. Play defense, get the ball
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: back and then you only need to get another field
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: goal you can win the game. But that's not the
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: right approach. The right approach McVeigh is correct, You go
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: for the touchdown there. It was just I don't know,
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: Seattle just had a good defensive call on that fourth
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: down play. Man, it is what it is. They had
• 7:43
  Speaker 1: all the receivers covered. They did not really rush Stafford
• 7:46
  Speaker 1: on that when they slipped back into coverage and there
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: was just nobody open, and they I think they had
• 7:52
  Speaker 1: at least one guy kind of on the quarterback there,
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: so Stafford wasn't gonna be able to run for it either.
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: So I don't know, man, I think the Rams are
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: the better team in the game. Statistically they were they
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: should have won the games. So now we're gonna have
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: maybe the worst super Bowl that I've ever seen. I mean,
• 8:08
  Speaker 1: this is the weakest Super Bowl matchup, probably the weakest
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl quarterback matchup in history, and this is the
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: weakest playoff field in history. I think I'm going to
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: have a play on the side in the Super Bowl,
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: just so you know. I skipped the side last year
• 8:25
  Speaker 1: and went all props and did well. But this year,
• 8:27
  Speaker 1: I like a side. You probably already know what it is,
• 8:30
  Speaker 1: because anybody who watched both games yesterday is gonna want
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: one of those two teams and want nothing to do
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: with the other. So I think it's pretty obvious that
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: we're gonna be We're gonna be taking points with the Patriots,
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: and the super Bowl very likely to be a play
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: for me on the show. Maybe we shouldn't even get
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: on it now. Well it's still five. I don't know,
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: because I don't know if the line's gonna drop if
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: a lot of professional money comes in. But it's gonna
• 8:55
  Speaker 1: be such a publicly bet game, and I expect the
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: public to be on Seattle, so I don't know. I
• 9:00
  Speaker 1: don't know how much that line is really gonna drop,
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: because that's the one type of game where the public
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: can actually keep the line up. But whatever, And yes,
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: I was completely wrong about the under in the NFC game,
• 9:12
  Speaker 1: much much more of a track meet than I thought
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: it would be. I leaned slightly under in the AFC game,
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: but I didn't expect that much snow to start happening.
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: When it becomes snow, that's like that heavy. It obviously
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: does affect the offense, and it did there. But mister Pinsey,
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: what's up? Man? You played the Golden Knights yesterday. I
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: think I leaned against that, didn't I I liked, like
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: almost all the home underdogs in hockey yesterday. I don't know.
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: I did not like that play. I don't think. Don't
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: gamble more than you can afford. Man, All right, let's
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: get into today college basketball. There's some games here. There
• 9:52
  Speaker 1: are a couple of good games. There are a few
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: games that are postponed. I believe they're not really games
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: I was gonna talk about anyway. But I think Alabama A,
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: Prairie View, A and M is postponed. I don't know
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: if the weather is bad in Texas. Maybe I have
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: no idea. I guess so because I think East Texas
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: A and M. Lamar is also postponed. And one of
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: these other games is also postponed. I forget which game
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: it is. Yeah, I can't remember. I forget. It's one
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: of the games that actually does have a line on
• 10:22
  Speaker 1: it though, and it was like it was some game
• 10:24
  Speaker 1: that has a double digit favorite. But I can't remember
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: which game it is. I can actually probably just look
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: it is. Yeah, Wagner and Long Island is postponed. That's
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: likely because of weather. I mean, we got a lot
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: of snow up here. Men. We're we're around twenty inches
• 10:43
  Speaker 1: or so where I am here, which is around in
• 10:47
  Speaker 1: line with what the prediction was. All right, let's talk
• 10:50
  Speaker 1: about basketball and men. We have Lemoyne and Fairleigh Dickenson
• 10:54
  Speaker 1: at six pm. Yeah, people are gonna want to watch
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: this game. Well, it's not even on TV, but you
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: can probably find a for it. This is in the
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: Northeast Conference. These seems have not played yet this year. Now, Lemoyne,
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: we faded them in the last game, if you remember,
• 11:10
  Speaker 1: because they were coming up that big win over Long Island,
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: who are the best team in this conference. So and
• 11:16
  Speaker 1: it was a really, really misleading result. I showed you
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: that box score, unbelievably misleading. So I said, we got
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: to take the points with Wagner. Here we did, We
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: got it right, they covered. So now Lemoyne is coming
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: off playing poorly as a favorite. And you know, I
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: like to look at teams that play poorly as a favorite.
• 11:34
  Speaker 1: I like for them to bounce back in the next game.
• 11:36
  Speaker 1: Problem is, Lemoyne has Long Island up again next and
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: that is going to be a big game. Even though
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: they already beat them once. Long Island is still sitting
• 11:44
  Speaker 1: atop the conference so and Lemoyne is right behind them,
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: so that's still a huge game. So there is the
• 11:50
  Speaker 1: warrior to look ahead here, going to Fairleigh Dickinson. Fairly,
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: Dickinson just pulled off an upset. They beat Central Connecticut
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: on the road, Central Connecticut seven and a half point
• 12:02
  Speaker 1: favorites in this one, so Fairley Dickinson is coming off
• 12:04
  Speaker 1: an upset of their own. So all that being taken
• 12:09
  Speaker 1: into consideration, I think I have to probably lean to
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: Lemoyne in this one. The line has dropped a little
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: bit down from three to two and a half. There
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: is again still the worry that it's a look ahead spot,
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: but I also think you can make the argument they're
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: in a bounce back spot. You could definitely make the
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: argument FDUS in a letdown spot. But of course you
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: could make the argument they'll show up for the team.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: It's second in the conference, so it is a little
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: bit of an addressing handicap there. But I would probably
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: lean towards Lemoyne in that one, but don't want any
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: part of the side in that one. ESPN at seven
• 12:40
  Speaker 1: has probably the best game of the night. I mean
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: not probably well actually no, actually debatably, I think actually
• 12:47
  Speaker 1: the late game is actually probably the better game. My mistake.
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: But we have Louisville number twenty three at number five
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: Duke on ESPN, and I think these rankings are maybe
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: a little bit crazy. Duke is probably a correct ken
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: Bum actually has them third. Louisville, I think is a
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: little bit under ranked though, Ken bum as Louisville at sixteenth,
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: so I think the rankings makers are not giving Louisville
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: full credit here in this one. And if you look
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: at the line, Duke is not a monster favorite here.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: They're seven point favorite and their public of course because
• 13:19
  Speaker 1: they're Duke, and they have one loss of the season,
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: eighty two percent of the tickets, sixty six percent of
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: the cash, so it seems like some of the real
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: money is fading Duke here. I would agree. I lean
• 13:29
  Speaker 1: to Louisville in this game as well. Louisville, you know
• 13:32
  Speaker 1: they're gonna show up. They're coming off beating Virginia Tech
• 13:36
  Speaker 1: fairly easily. I don't think Duke is really necessarily in
• 13:38
  Speaker 1: a bad spot though, No, I mean they just beat Wake.
• 13:41
  Speaker 1: I mean, yeah, it's a satisfying win to beat your
• 13:44
  Speaker 1: little brother, but you expect both teams to still show up.
• 13:48
  Speaker 1: But I think Louisville is gonna be the team that
• 13:50
  Speaker 1: has more adjustments to me, because this is a second
• 13:53
  Speaker 1: meeting already, and Duke already won at Louisville. So Louisville
• 13:57
  Speaker 1: is one of the avenging road under dogs in a
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: conference game. In this situation, and if we look at
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: what happened in this game, Duke was a one and
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite in the game, so the seven
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: point line is about correct in this game, but there
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: were some misleading things about the box scorer in this game.
• 14:15
  Speaker 1: Louisville actually outplayed Duke to some extent in this game.
• 14:19
  Speaker 1: The rebounds are closed. Louisville had eight more field goal
• 14:21
  Speaker 1: attempts in the game. They took more threes, which is
• 14:25
  Speaker 1: high variants though, and Louisville did hit more threes in
• 14:27
  Speaker 1: the game, but they shot pretty poorly from the field
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: forty probably because a lot of their field goal attempts
• 14:34
  Speaker 1: are threes. Duke shot fifty one percent from the field,
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: so that was really kind of the difference in the game. Well,
• 14:41
  Speaker 1: that and the free throws. Duke had twenty eight free
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: throw attempts in the game and Louisville only had twelve.
• 14:47
  Speaker 1: So some definitely biased refing. It looks like in that
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: game that type of stuff. Definitely can see some regression
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: back to some sort of mean here, although of course
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: Duke is at home, so they might get some refing
• 14:59
  Speaker 1: call again in this one, but it might not be
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: as extreme, but there is some room for regression here. Again,
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: what we saw in that last game, it looks like
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: statistically the game should have been closer. Duke had a
• 15:12
  Speaker 1: really good shooting game. Louisville had a pretty poor one.
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: Duke had way more feel free throw attempts. I don't
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: want to repeat myself too much, but yeah, I would
• 15:21
  Speaker 1: lean towards Louisville plus the points there. All right, Fox
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: Sports won. We have Penn State and Ohio State here.
• 15:31
  Speaker 1: I'm not really gonna talk about I mean, we have
• 15:33
  Speaker 1: MIAC and swack games for the most part here. I
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: don't find them to be particularly interesting. Penn State and
• 15:40
  Speaker 1: Ohio State. I don't even know if this game is
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: really that interesting. Penn State has struggled this year. Man,
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: they still don't have a conference win. They just got
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: blown out at home by Wisconsin. But I think what
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: that does mean you're gonna get some effort out of
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: Penn State. They're just not that good. But if you're
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: gonna get effort from a huge underdog, it's worth and
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: taking the points with that team. Now, Ohio State, they
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: gotta try to pad their tournament resume here, but that
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: is what they're doing, and they are coming up a
• 16:08
  Speaker 1: big game against Michigan where they did cover. Although they
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: lost by twelve, the game wasn't exactly close, but that
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: was still a big game for them, and they do
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: have a bigger game on deck against Wisconsin, so you
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: could make the argument this is a little bit of
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: a sandwich spot. I would probably be jumping on Penn
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: State here of Ohio State, like took Michigan Michigan to
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: the wire or something like that, which they didn't, So
• 16:31
  Speaker 1: I'm staying away, but I would lean to Penn State
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: plus the points in that one. Ohio State twelve and
• 16:36
  Speaker 1: a half is the line now up from eleven fifty
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: seven percent of the tickets, it's seventy percent of the
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: cash on Penn State, So it looks like the money
• 16:44
  Speaker 1: is coming in on Penn State. Don't expect the public
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: to actually be on Pence State in that one, because
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: why would they be, But I think that's still the
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: way I would lean. I think the spot is probably
• 16:54
  Speaker 1: worse for Ohio State there anyway, and probably you're not
• 16:57
  Speaker 1: getting too much line value fading Penn State in a
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: game like that. I mean, yeah, I think you're getting
• 17:04
  Speaker 1: line value playing on Penn State in a game like
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: that is what I should say. All Right, we have
• 17:10
  Speaker 1: Central Connecticut and stone Hill in the Northeast Conference at
• 17:13
  Speaker 1: seven pm. Central Connecticut, as I already mentioned, they just
• 17:16
  Speaker 1: got upset at home by Farrick Dickinson. Not a good loss.
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: They might have been hung over because they lost a
• 17:23
  Speaker 1: four game win streak with their prior loss to Mercyhurst,
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: so maybe they kind of lost the game twice. But
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: after an ugly loss like that, you gotta think they
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: will show up in the next game. Although they're playing
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: stone Hill and Cedarl Connecticut did already beat stone Hill
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: at home, but this is a game where the game
• 17:41
  Speaker 1: was the game landed like right on the number on
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: that one. Central Connecticut was seven and a half point
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: favorites and they won by seven. But because they're coming
• 17:49
  Speaker 1: up of an ugly loss is a home favorite, I
• 17:50
  Speaker 1: think they will actually show up, even though they did
• 17:53
  Speaker 1: already beat stone Hill once. Now stone Hills should show
• 17:56
  Speaker 1: up as well. To want to do this with the
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: problem with stone Hills, they just played Long Island and
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: they played Long Island really close. So stone Hill is
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: coming off a big performance where they almost pulled off
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: an upset against the best team in the conference. Probably.
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: I think it was only about a five and a
• 18:11
  Speaker 1: half six point line in that one because the game
• 18:14
  Speaker 1: was at stone Hill and stone Hill is staying at home.
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: But I think this is probably actually the strongest college
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: basketball on the end of the day, and it's Central
• 18:23
  Speaker 1: Connecticut minus the points. Thinking about it more, I kind
• 18:27
  Speaker 1: of want to do it. I think ken Bom has
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: this line at like two. Central Connecticut's up from two
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: and a half to three here. But I looked at
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: ken Bum's numbers and I was like, I don't know, man.
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: Central Connecticut is bad for one thing. They're almost not
• 18:43
  Speaker 1: even in the top three hundred. They're very lucky according
• 18:46
  Speaker 1: to ken Bum, thirty fifth in lock, very weak schedule,
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: very bad defensively, they're at least respectable offensively, and of
• 18:54
  Speaker 1: course they play slow. Both of these teams play slow,
• 18:57
  Speaker 1: so points will be at a premium a little bit
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: faster and Central Connecticut does. Stonehill is the better defense, though,
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: but their offense is putrid, like one of the absolute
• 19:07
  Speaker 1: worst in the country, and stone Hill has also faced
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: a very weak schedule both teams have. Stone Hill is
• 19:14
  Speaker 1: the less lucky team significantly though against Central Connecticut, so
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: that was what kept me off of this game. I
• 19:22
  Speaker 1: guess I'll stay away from it. But that's what kept
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: me off really is that stone Hill is technically the
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: better defense getting points here at home, which usually is
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: the way that I like to look, and you're looking
• 19:33
  Speaker 1: at a team that's way, way unlucky according to kempom
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: with stone Hill there. But I still will lean to
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: Central Connecticut. I think it is a strong spot for
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: Central Connecticut. But you do have to lay about three
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: points now on the road with them, which is getting
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: a little bit pricey total pretty low in one forty
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: two and a half. But that is the way I
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: lean in that game is towards Central Connecticut, all right.
• 19:58
  Speaker 1: And then the real big game of the night is
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: Arizona and BYU here number one, Arizona number thirteen BYU
• 20:06
  Speaker 1: on ESPN. This is a big game, man, obviously, and
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: it's a very competitively lined game too. Ken Bum has Arizona,
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: I believe, the number one or number two team in
• 20:19
  Speaker 1: the country number one again right now, he's got BYU fifteenth,
• 20:23
  Speaker 1: so he actually has BYU as being over ranked by
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: the rankings makers. But college basketball does not have a
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: huge disparity between these teams that are all at the
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: top right now. Man. Unlike last year, where like there
• 20:35
  Speaker 1: was a pretty big gap between like the top four
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: and everybody else last year, this year that's not the case.
• 20:40
  Speaker 1: And you could see it here. Arizona's only two point
• 20:43
  Speaker 1: favorite here, even though yeah, they're on the road, and
• 20:45
  Speaker 1: it basically indicates it'd be like a five or six
• 20:47
  Speaker 1: point neutral favorite against BYU. But still Orozegers is telling
• 20:51
  Speaker 1: you there's not a huge gap between the two teams.
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: Byu is getting the money. He's sixty two percent of
• 20:56
  Speaker 1: the tickets, eighty three percent of the cash on BOYU.
• 20:59
  Speaker 1: I don't disagree with it. One concern with Arizona is
• 21:03
  Speaker 1: that they just have not faced a strong conference schedule
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: at all. But yes, they did face a very strong
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: out of conference schedule. So it's not like they're not
• 21:11
  Speaker 1: good or whatever. It's not like they're not battle testing
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: on the season, but they haven't really been tested in
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: a while. This is gonna be their first real test
• 21:18
  Speaker 1: in a while. They have played in elevation once already
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: at Utah, so they're not gonna be intimidated by that,
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: I don't think, or anything like that. But this is
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: gonna be a big game. And BYU just had a
• 21:29
  Speaker 1: non cover against Utah staying at home. I thought they'd
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: be looking ahead to this game so they didn't cover.
• 21:35
  Speaker 1: I was correct about that. BYU is definitely gonna show
• 21:38
  Speaker 1: up for this game. Man. We'll see what they can do,
• 21:41
  Speaker 1: because their best player is this dibantsa guy who just
• 21:44
  Speaker 1: scored forty three points, which is a freshman BYU record here,
• 21:49
  Speaker 1: but he is still a freshman. Although college basketball, of course,
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: you know, I mean a lot of freshmen do pretty
• 21:56
  Speaker 1: well in college basketball. On that with all the new
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: the new rules is if you don't have a lot
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: of teams to just stay intact, like as a unit
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: for like years now, which sucks because I liked those
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: teams like those are the teams you wanted to look for,
• 22:10
  Speaker 1: like in tournaments and stuff, like teams that had experience
• 22:13
  Speaker 1: with that like core group of players multiple years. You
• 22:16
  Speaker 1: don't get that anymore, man, really, except you do have
• 22:19
  Speaker 1: some of it with Purdue this year. But whatever, getting
• 22:21
  Speaker 1: sidetracked here, I would leak to BYU in that game.
• 22:24
  Speaker 1: That is where the money looks like it is coming in.
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: But I don't have a strong opinion on it. I
• 22:30
  Speaker 1: guess I don't know Real Grande Valley and A and
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: m CC in the Southland. I wasn't gonna talk about this,
• 22:36
  Speaker 1: I guess. I mean Real Grande Valley's just they've won
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: three in a row. They're on a nice little wind
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: streak here for Texas and Texas A and m CC
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: they didn't already beat Rio Grande Valley on the road,
• 22:49
  Speaker 1: so this is an avenging road underdog situation for Rio
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: Grande Valley here because A and m CC went into
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: their place and beat them already. This game, Real Grande
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: Valley was a two and a half point favorite, which
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: basically should indicate that A and m CC should probably
• 23:05
  Speaker 1: be about a four and a half or so point
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: favorite at home, which I think is actually where the
• 23:10
  Speaker 1: line is as well in this game today. Real Grande
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: Valley had a terrible shooting game in that game, so
• 23:16
  Speaker 1: that was one of the reasons they lost that game,
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: although A and MCC did out rebound them in the game,
• 23:22
  Speaker 1: but there were some shooting outliers, mostly that Real Grande
• 23:25
  Speaker 1: Vali did and shoot well. AMCC is coming up a
• 23:28
  Speaker 1: decent win on the road at Incarnate Word. I mean,
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: they've been okay this year. They don't really have this
• 23:33
  Speaker 1: game surrounded by a whole lot though, so it's not
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: really a game where I really want to jump in.
• 23:38
  Speaker 1: But I would lean with the Avenging Road underdog in
• 23:42
  Speaker 1: this situation. I would lean to Rio Grande Valley in
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: this one. They're actually only a three point dog, though
• 23:48
  Speaker 1: I expected this line to be about four and a half,
• 23:50
  Speaker 1: so it does look a little low. It's down from
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: three and a half to three though, so some initial
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: movement did come in towards the underdog there, real Gronde Valley.
• 23:59
  Speaker 1: I do still agree with that and lean that way.
• 24:03
  Speaker 1: All right, NHL, let's go, man, h we are wanting
• 24:12
  Speaker 1: to begin with this one. Actually, hold on, let me do.
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: I gotta go on an intermission. I gotta clear my
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: sinuses again. Man, I apologize. It's getting bad. The winters
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: is off on. Everything gets dried out here with a
• 24:24
  Speaker 1: stupid heat. My heat is too powerful, all right. Yeah,
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: something I don't know, man, Something happens when I talk
• 25:19
  Speaker 1: for a long period of time. Extended period of time
• 25:22
  Speaker 1: as well. All right, hockey, Every game in hockey is
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: in the evening. We do have some afternoon NBA action today.
• 25:30
  Speaker 1: The only action in the afternoon is NBA. I do
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: have one afternoon NBA play, By the way, I have
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: one hockey play that's about to come up here, not
• 25:39
  Speaker 1: in this first game between Utah and Tampa Bay. Utah
• 25:42
  Speaker 1: is on a nice run here. They won five games
• 25:45
  Speaker 1: in a row, so they're playing pretty well. Although this
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: might be a spot where they do have to switch
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: back to Vanacheck and now, although I'm not sure because
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: they do use Vmalka a lot, Vana check would be
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: a little bit of a downgrade. The last time they lost,
• 25:58
  Speaker 1: the only loss they've had in the last nine games
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: or so was Vana checking net, but he didn't do
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: that bad. They lost three too in overtime. You know
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be focused at the very least going into
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay here. They started out the road trip beating
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: Nashville Utah did, so they have some momentum coming in here.
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: They'll show up for a game against Tampa Bay. Like
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: I said, Tampa Bay is one of the better teams
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: in the league. However, I think you will get an
• 26:21
  Speaker 1: effort out of Tampa Bay as well, because they did
• 26:23
  Speaker 1: just lose real ugly eight five to Columbus, and that
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: was with Johansson in net. Vassilevsky will be back in
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: net for this game. You have to imagine, so you'll
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: get the better goalie from Tampa Bay here. One problem
• 26:36
  Speaker 1: is they are turning over from a road treble that
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: was a quick road trip that was only Friday Saturday.
• 26:41
  Speaker 1: So it's one of those trips where it isn't as
• 26:46
  Speaker 1: bad as a long road trip. Long road trips like
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: stuff piles up that these guys have to do at home.
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: Then they get back home and they got to deal
• 26:52
  Speaker 1: with it. This at least isn't as bad as that.
• 26:55
  Speaker 1: But they are playing a third game in four day's
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: still all in different cities, So to me, I think
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: the spot does still set up a little bit better
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: for Utah in this one. That's the way that I
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: would lean. Tampa Bay is very public, so the market
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: seems like it agrees as well. Ninety one percent of tickets,
• 27:12
  Speaker 1: ninety percent of the cash on Tampa Bay. They're down
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: from minus one seventy eight to minus one sixty six,
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: So some reverse line movement there against a really public
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: Tampa Bay side. I agree with Utah, but it's not
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: a strong opinion for me. NHL Network has my Boston
• 27:29
  Speaker 1: Bruins playing yet another Original six game, this time against
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: the Rangers on the road. Now the situation will set
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: up for this looks better for the Bruins sort of.
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: The Bruins. It's a little bit weird because it's a
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: single game road trip, though. They're gonna have to travel
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: from Boston to New York, which usually is quick travel.
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: But I don't know doing that in the snowstorm, well,
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: I guess they'll just fly, so I guess it doesn't
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: really matter, but I don't know. I mean, we have
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: a lot of snow up here in the Northeast to
• 27:56
  Speaker 1: deal with. Bruins are coming off a pretty nice win
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: over Montreal and is on the heels of beating Vegas,
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: which was another nice win for them, So you can
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: make the argument they're in a little bit of a
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: letdown spot actually against the Rangers here, because Rangers have
• 28:10
  Speaker 1: been struggling. So maybe the Rangers are an overlookable team
• 28:15
  Speaker 1: at this point, and if anybody's gonna overlook them, it
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: might be the Bruins because the Bruins last time they played,
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: they embarrassed the Rangers in Boston ten to two, so
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: I think the Rangers are gonna remember that. Bruins probably
• 28:27
  Speaker 1: remember it too. I mean that was January tenth, It
• 28:29
  Speaker 1: was not long ago, so there might be a little
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: bit of a revenge mode of there. I mean, if
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: somebody embarrassed you that hard, like, you're usually gonna remember that,
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: So that might motivate the Rangers a little bit more here.
• 28:42
  Speaker 1: The situation was set up, though, like I said, for
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: the Rangers, is not good. They were turning off from
• 28:46
  Speaker 1: a road trip that actually took them to the Pacific coast,
• 28:49
  Speaker 1: So that's not a good spot for the Rangers. I
• 28:51
  Speaker 1: haven't been out on the road since January seventeenth, over
• 28:55
  Speaker 1: a week now. They're coming back home cross country again.
• 28:58
  Speaker 1: When you do that, you come back home, you have
• 29:00
  Speaker 1: stuff to do back at home. You might get distracted. Now.
• 29:03
  Speaker 1: I know it's an NHL Network game. I know the
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: Bruins wrecked them, really really destroyed them in the last games.
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: That should be a reason why maybe the Rangers won't
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: overlook them. But they do still have to deal with
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: this return home spot, which is a very very strong angle,
• 29:18
  Speaker 1: a fade angle in these sports. And they do play
• 29:22
  Speaker 1: the Islanders next twice, which I mean that's their inner
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: city rival there, and the Rangers might not be happy
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: about the fact that even though the Rangers are the
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: team with the more established fan base or whatever, the
• 29:34
  Speaker 1: Islanders or the team that's doing better this year. So
• 29:37
  Speaker 1: I don't know a lot of things to consider in
• 29:39
  Speaker 1: this game. The money is coming in towards the Bruins,
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: up from minus one of five to minus one to
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: nineteen sixty four percent of the tickets seventy four percent
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the Bruins. I'll lightly agree with
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: the Bruins here, but the fact that it's kind of
• 29:53
  Speaker 1: that quick revenge spot is holding me back a bit
• 29:57
  Speaker 1: on that game. I'll agree with it just because the
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: return home home spot is really really bad. But I
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: don't want to play that game all right. Next game
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: up is my play. We're gonna be on the New
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: York Islanders on the money line here. It looks like
• 30:12
  Speaker 1: they might be swinging towards being a favorite here, man,
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: So you gotta get on this while it's still a
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: cheap ish price here. We could have had them at
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: plus money for a little bit or early phil We're
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: fading Philadelphia here. Philadelphia is at minus one twenty five
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: throw all the way down to minus one twelve. So
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: the market indicators are kind of telling you they think
• 30:30
  Speaker 1: the Islanders are actually even the better team here. Seventy
• 30:33
  Speaker 1: three percent of the tickets ninety two percent of the
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: cash on the Islanders, so the real money looks like
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: it is in agreement with this. And I think the
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: spot is really strong for the Islanders here because normally
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: I'm not gonna necessarily look to play the team with
• 30:46
  Speaker 1: the better record, because usually it seems like they're they're
• 30:49
  Speaker 1: gonna be too public and whatever. But in this case,
• 30:51
  Speaker 1: I don't really think so. The Islanders just lost five
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: to nothing at home to Buffalo, and whenever a team
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: loses that bad at home like that, especially in a shutout,
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: I think automatically you want to look to go with
• 31:04
  Speaker 1: that team in the next game, go with them to
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: bounce back. Ridditch was in net for that one. He
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: hasn't been as good. They've lost his last three games,
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: so I think you're gonna get to rok and back
• 31:13
  Speaker 1: in net here, hopefully, because they think he is the
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: better goalie for the Islanders here. It should be him
• 31:19
  Speaker 1: again in this one. But also that loss was explainable
• 31:22
  Speaker 1: to Buffalo because the Islanders had been on the road
• 31:25
  Speaker 1: for like two weeks, so they had a long road
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: trip that took them all the way up to the
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: Pacific Northwest, and that's what they're returning from. As I
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: always say, that's a terrible spot returning home from the road,
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: So you can kind of explain why they had a
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: horrible performance against Buffalo. But usually when that happens, the
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: team shows up with a lot of intensity in the
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: next game. I know they're going back out on the
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: road for single game here, but it's only going New
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: York to Philly. I know we're dealing with snow up
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: here and whatever, but it's still pretty easy trip. I
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: would say Philly's been playing well enough that they will
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: grab your attention. And again, when you lost five nothing
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: in your last game at home, you're gonna pay attention
• 32:00
  Speaker 1: to whoever your next opponent is. But it gets worse
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: because Philadelphia is in a horrible spot, or I should
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: say it gets better for the Islanders. Philadelphia just upset Colorado.
• 32:11
  Speaker 1: It seems like a lot of teams are doing that recently,
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: and we've faded those teams to with success and with
• 32:18
  Speaker 1: failure in some cases. But hopefully this one is a success.
• 32:22
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia just finished a road trip by beating Colorado. On
• 32:26
  Speaker 1: the road. They had a road trip where they beat
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: Vegas and Colorado and lost to Utah in overtime. Good
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: road trip for Philly. They've been on the road for
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: a week. And you know what I always say, teams
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: that have been on the road for a significant amount
• 32:39
  Speaker 1: of time like that, they return home. They have to
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: get back to home life. They have stuff to do.
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: They can be a bit unfocused. Now, yes, they've had
• 32:46
  Speaker 1: a couple of days off here, but I think having
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: a couple of days off can kind of cause you
• 32:51
  Speaker 1: to settle back in at home and maybe can exacerbate
• 32:54
  Speaker 1: the distractions. And when you just beat Colorado in Colorado
• 32:57
  Speaker 1: seven to three, you're gonna be thinking about that, man,
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: like you're gonna come back home. You know, Philadelphia is
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: a pretty heavy media town. You know the media is
• 33:05
  Speaker 1: gonna be celebrating it. You're gonna feel real good, man,
• 33:08
  Speaker 1: if you're listening to the media talking about that win
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: that you just had against Colorado. So yeah, that can
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: all become a distraction as well. And they're not gonna
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: be at home for long. So whatever they have to
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: get done at home, they got to do it because
• 33:19
  Speaker 1: they're going out on the road for two games starting
• 33:22
  Speaker 1: on Wednesday, so they're sort of in a little bit
• 33:25
  Speaker 1: of a road trip sandwich here. The next road trips
• 33:27
  Speaker 1: only two games. But yeah, everything really lines up pretty
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: nicely here in my opinion for the Islanders. So that
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: is what we're gonna be doing here in this game.
• 33:37
  Speaker 1: Islanders money line is to play there the other two
• 33:42
  Speaker 1: games here, this next one. I consider putting this next
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: one on my card. Kings and Blue Jackets. We did
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: have the Kings in their previous game. They got the
• 33:52
  Speaker 1: win in kind of an escape at Saint Louis in
• 33:55
  Speaker 1: a shootout. Now they're going to Columbus, but the Kings
• 33:58
  Speaker 1: are still fairly well out rested because they didn't play
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: for like three days prior to the game against Saint Louis,
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: so they have a little bit of momentum here. I
• 34:06
  Speaker 1: think the one real concern with the Kings is will
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: they look ahead to playing Detroit tomorrow? They might. I mean,
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: if you're gonna focus on one of these two teams
• 34:15
  Speaker 1: on the back to back, Columbus or Detroit, You're probably
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: gonna focus on Detroit. So that is the one real
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: concern that I probably have with this Columbus I think
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: is in a pretty bad spot. Man. They followed up
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: shutting out Dallas at home one nothing with an eight
• 34:29
  Speaker 1: to five win over Tampa Bay, which I think I
• 34:32
  Speaker 1: just talked about. So Columbus is coming off two huge
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: wins against two good teams and they're just staying at
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: home off of that, just riding that high. I don't
• 34:40
  Speaker 1: like that, man. And they also might overlook a mediocre
• 34:43
  Speaker 1: Western Conference team like the Kings, maybe be paying attention
• 34:47
  Speaker 1: to Philadelphia, who they have up next, which is a
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: TNT National TV game, so that may very well be
• 34:53
  Speaker 1: a bigger game for them. So the spot is pretty
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: horrible for Columbus in this one. I like the Kings.
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: As I always point out, the Kings are also a
• 35:01
  Speaker 1: better road team than home team. They're thirteen six at
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: six on the roads. They've been pretty good on the road.
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: Columbus is okay at home thirteen eight and four. They
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: don't really have significant home road splits really, the Kings do.
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: Just like the Rangers. The Kings are definitely a better
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: on the road as it stands right now, So I
• 35:19
  Speaker 1: do like the Kings in this game. Columbus went up
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: for minus one fifteen and minus one seventeen. Sixty five
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: percent of the tickets. It's seventy two percent of the
• 35:27
  Speaker 1: cash on the Kings though, so it looks like the
• 35:29
  Speaker 1: Kings are a little bit public, but it looks like
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: they might be getting maybe some of the actual money
• 35:33
  Speaker 1: as well based on the situation. That's the way that
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: I lean and it was close to being a play
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: for me. So this is my second strongest NHL opinion
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: behind the Islanders. There, Zach, what's up man, Thanks for
• 35:45
  Speaker 1: hanging out. And then the final game is Anaheim at Edmonton.
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: This game, Anaheim is I think, kind of in a
• 35:54
  Speaker 1: difficult spot, even though normally, yeah, you're gonna get up
• 35:57
  Speaker 1: for a game against Edmonton. But Anaheim's on a huge
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: row right now. They won seven games in a row.
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: But they've already they've already won this road trip. They
• 36:04
  Speaker 1: won the first three games of the road trip, and
• 36:06
  Speaker 1: now they're playing a back to back, a third game
• 36:09
  Speaker 1: in four days, a fourth game in six days, in
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: a fifth game in eight days, all in Difrid City.
• 36:14
  Speaker 1: So Anaheim is facing a very tightly packed schedule right now.
• 36:18
  Speaker 1: And they went into overtime last night. You could argue, well,
• 36:21
  Speaker 1: that was an escape against Calgary. He was not that good. Yeah,
• 36:24
  Speaker 1: but they still had to play an extra period. They
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: had to play overtime last night, at least some amount
• 36:29
  Speaker 1: of an extra period. That's not easy to have to
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: turn around and play another game right away with travel
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: though it's within Alberta, but still big province. Those two
• 36:38
  Speaker 1: cities aren't exactly that close. Edmonton is coming up a
• 36:41
  Speaker 1: nice win as well at home against Washington, but they
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: are staying at home. They've had a little bit less
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: packed of a schedule as well. I think the spot
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: sets up better for Anaheim for excuse for Edmonton in
• 36:51
  Speaker 1: this one. A lot more travel and less rest for
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: Anaheim here. So I would have to lean towards Edmonton
• 36:58
  Speaker 1: in this one. But the money is not agreeing, and
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: maybe that has to do with the number being really
• 37:02
  Speaker 1: high on Edmonton. Oddsmakers really disrespecting Anaheim here. Edmonton down
• 37:07
  Speaker 1: from minus two sixty to minus two fifty. I expect
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: them to be closer to like minus two hundred, So
• 37:13
  Speaker 1: I don't know exactly what's going on with that. Maybe
• 37:15
  Speaker 1: the money's coming in towards Anaheim just solely based on
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: the number, but I think the situation is more favorable
• 37:22
  Speaker 1: to Edmonton but of course that rest scenario might be
• 37:27
  Speaker 1: getting factor into the line too much here, so that
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: is a concern. Excuse me. Sixty seven percent of tickets
• 37:34
  Speaker 1: and only fifty eight percent of the cash on Edmonton,
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: so they are the public side with less of the
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: money coming in on them. But I think I would
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: only be leaning towards Edmonton in this one. I wouldn't
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: really hate Edmonton over their team total. It's a high
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: total six and a half in the game. You'll need
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: them to score some goals here, but against potentially tired
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: Anaheim team, they might be able to do it. Probably
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: would not really want to to an Edmonton puck line,
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: although we'll see. But obviously I'm staying away from the
• 38:04
  Speaker 1: game completely. NBA. I like the NBA board today. Man,
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: it's not a huge board. I have three NBA plays
• 38:10
  Speaker 1: in the seven games here, and they might not be
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: what you think they are because you might think that
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: I'm gonna give you a play in this one thirty
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: PM game with Indiana and Atlanta, but I'm not, even
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: though I think Indiana is in a pretty obvious letdown
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: spot here. I mean, they just upset Oklahoma City. That
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: was a monster upset obviously huge double digit upset on
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: the road at OKC and it was finals revenge as
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: Indiana finally got the revenge on them. Indiana played them
• 38:40
  Speaker 1: well in Indiana to start the season as well, so
• 38:43
  Speaker 1: Indiana does seem to play well against Oklahoma City. But
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: that was a huge win for them. Man, a little
• 38:48
  Speaker 1: bit of finals revenge there. Now they're finishing a road trip,
• 38:51
  Speaker 1: but they do have two days off, so they do
• 38:54
  Speaker 1: have a little bit of rest here, although still the
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: rest might not help when you're basking in that huge win.
• 39:00
  Speaker 1: That was a monster win, Man, that basically was Indiana's
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: That was almost Indiana's season right there in that game,
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: because they know they're not going anywhere this year. Atlanta's
• 39:09
  Speaker 1: coming into this game in a two game win streak.
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: They've also had a couple of days off. They're just
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: staying at home. But I don't know if I want
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: Atlanta because they just beat Phoenix, which is a decent win,
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: but they also have Boston looming on the horizon on
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: deck and then Houston, so I worry a little bit
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: about the look at especially because Boston just went into
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: Atlanta and totally embarrassed them on January seventeenth, one thirty
• 39:31
  Speaker 1: two to one oh six. So Atlanta might actually be
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: looking ahead and be more focused on that Boston game.
• 39:39
  Speaker 1: So that's my concern with Atlanta, Like when you want
• 39:42
  Speaker 1: a team that's gonna be focused when you're laying points here,
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: I'm a little bit worried about that. I still lean
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: to Atlanta. I think the letdown spot is huge for
• 39:49
  Speaker 1: the Pacers yere, but this is a game that I'm
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: actually staying off of. Hawks are up from five to
• 39:54
  Speaker 1: five and a half here, eighty three percent of the tickets,
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: eighty nine percent of the cash on the Hawks. Money
• 39:59
  Speaker 1: seem it's coming in on that side. It seems like
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: a somewhat public side as well. I agree with Atlanta,
• 40:05
  Speaker 1: but not a play for me. This next game is
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: so like I said, we have one afternoon game. These
• 40:11
  Speaker 1: are both afternoon games three pm. Seems like they're not
• 40:14
  Speaker 1: on TV anywhere whatside. To take the Islanders thing down,
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: We're gonna lay the points with the Charlotte Hornets. Man,
• 40:20
  Speaker 1: here we go, baby, feels like we're in the nineties again,
• 40:23
  Speaker 1: even though the original Charlotte Hornets of the New Orleans
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: Pelicans now the Charlotte Hornets that are the current Charlotte Hornets.
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: Just because they change their name, they inherit the history
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: of the Hornets franchise, which is stupid because that franchise
• 40:38
  Speaker 1: is the Pelicans now, so I hate how that all works.
• 40:42
  Speaker 1: This Charlotte Hornets team is the Charlotte Bobcats expansion team.
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: But whatever. First of all, you're gonna look at this line.
• 40:48
  Speaker 1: I think, why would you lay points here with Charlotte
• 40:51
  Speaker 1: right in eighteen and twenty eighteen against a twenty four
• 40:54
  Speaker 1: and twenty Philadelphia team Who's gonna want to do that?
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: And yes, Charlotte's not that good at home, Philadelphia is
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: pretty good on the road, so that worries me a
• 41:03
  Speaker 1: little bit, But we're gonna do with this now. First
• 41:06
  Speaker 1: of all, the line is a little bit bigger because
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: Philadelphia is resting players, So that kind of tells you
• 41:12
  Speaker 1: the Philadelphia is kind of punting on this game here
• 41:15
  Speaker 1: based on the rest here. If you look at what's
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: going on here, they have George n Embiid are both
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: not playing in this game and it's for injury maintenance,
• 41:25
  Speaker 1: which that means rest. So you know, I like to
• 41:28
  Speaker 1: play on teams that have the injured players but not
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: in this case, man. I mean, this is more of
• 41:32
  Speaker 1: a cluster injury. Both your best two guys are out,
• 41:35
  Speaker 1: and again for injury maintenance, it's more of a scheduled thing.
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: It's not because, oh, these guys both got hurt in
• 41:41
  Speaker 1: the last game. It's because these guys are old and
• 41:44
  Speaker 1: they're always hurt, and this is a game where Philadelphia
• 41:46
  Speaker 1: is just choosing to rest them. So Philadelphia is gonna
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: be a little bit shorthanded here. But I also like
• 41:52
  Speaker 1: the scheduling spot to fade Philly here and again because
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: of Philadelphia's record being way better than the Hornets record,
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: the oddsmakers I don't think they can really fully adjust
• 42:00
  Speaker 1: the line. So part of the injured player spot is, well,
• 42:03
  Speaker 1: you're gonna get value playing on that team with the
• 42:06
  Speaker 1: injured players, right, But I don't think you really are
• 42:09
  Speaker 1: in this case because the oddsmakers can't really skew the
• 42:11
  Speaker 1: line that heavily towards Charlotte just because the record is horrible.
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: So the oddsmakers still need to balance the action, So
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: like there's gonna be the action's gonna be way too public,
• 42:22
  Speaker 1: way too heavy on the Philly side if the line
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: is too big even at three, it's gonna look too
• 42:26
  Speaker 1: big to the public eye. But look at Philadelphia's scheduling spot. Man,
• 42:31
  Speaker 1: they just blew a game against the Knicks. They potentially
• 42:34
  Speaker 1: could have been able to beat the Knicks in that game.
• 42:36
  Speaker 1: I think they're winning at halftime in the game or something.
• 42:38
  Speaker 1: It was a pretty close game, though, but they just
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: played the Knicks to within three and that was on
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: the heels of beating Houston in overtime. So Philadelphia's is
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: coming up two huge games here now they go to
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: go to Charlotte for one game. Doesn't seem like they're
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: gonna have that much interest in doing that, man, Like,
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: why would you want to do that? You have one game,
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: you have to go in the afternoon on the road
• 43:00
  Speaker 1: for this one game, and then you're back at home
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: for an NBC game tomorrow against Milwaukee. And I know
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: Milwaukee doesn't have Giannis anymore again, but that might still
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: be a bigger game because it's still a TV game
• 43:12
  Speaker 1: against the Bucks. So this is a bad spot. I
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: think it could be a sandwich spot. I think at
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: the very least, it's a weird travel spot and kind
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: of a hangover spot here for Charlotte. I think you
• 43:22
  Speaker 1: know you're gonna get a motivated effort out of Charlotte here.
• 43:26
  Speaker 1: They're on a two game win streak, but they just
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: had a bad performance staying at home. By the way,
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: they had a bad performance against Washington on Saturday, were
• 43:34
  Speaker 1: the only one by four. Charlotte were actually double digit
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: favorites in that game. So the oddsmakers are telling you
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: Charlotte is actually not as bad at this point as
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: their record. Look, Charlotte has actually been playing like a
• 43:45
  Speaker 1: very confident team recently. Like I said, like their analytics
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: are actually really good. Over the last month or so.
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: They've actually been one of like the top ten teams
• 43:53
  Speaker 1: in the NBA, believe it or not, which is another
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: part of the reason why their favorite here. That was
• 43:58
  Speaker 1: why they're favorite by double digits. I think they just
• 44:00
  Speaker 1: looked right past Washington and they almost got caught. And
• 44:03
  Speaker 1: you know what I say, when a team is a
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: huge favorite almost gets caught, they tend to show up
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: with a lot more intensity in the next game. I
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: think they might have been looking ahead. Philly is a
• 44:12
  Speaker 1: much bigger opponent that you get here. I expect effort
• 44:15
  Speaker 1: out of Charlotte in this one. Man, so that's what
• 44:17
  Speaker 1: we're gonna do. We're going with the Hornets. You might
• 44:20
  Speaker 1: still be able to find a two and a half
• 44:21
  Speaker 1: out here. It looks like it was gonna be six
• 44:23
  Speaker 1: ers minus one and a half if Embiid and or
• 44:27
  Speaker 1: George we're playing. So the reason why the line moved
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: up to three, I think is because those guys are
• 44:31
  Speaker 1: not playing. But the real money it looks like it's
• 44:33
  Speaker 1: still playing the Hornets side here, and I agree with it.
• 44:35
  Speaker 1: Sixty three percent of the tickets, eighty three percent of
• 44:38
  Speaker 1: the cash on the Hornets. That is my first NBA
• 44:40
  Speaker 1: play there, Charlotte Hornets. I mean you could maybe potentially
• 44:45
  Speaker 1: go money line on it too, if you find a
• 44:46
  Speaker 1: decent money line way of playing it. Orlando at Cleveland,
• 44:52
  Speaker 1: We're gonna be on this game too. We're gonna play
• 44:54
  Speaker 1: Orlando plus five and a half on Peacock. We're gonna
• 44:57
  Speaker 1: zigzag in this one, man. I think we're getting a
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: decent line to zigzag this thing. Now. What the zigzag
• 45:05
  Speaker 1: is is if two teams just played, which these two
• 45:09
  Speaker 1: teams did they just played in Orlando, and if there
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: was a bit of an outlier result in the game,
• 45:14
  Speaker 1: which I think it was Orlando was a small favorite
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: in the game, and they lost one nineteen to one
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: oh five, so it was a bit of an outlier.
• 45:22
  Speaker 1: I think we'll look at the box score in a minute,
• 45:24
  Speaker 1: but if that happens, usually want to look to play
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: on the team that was on the wrong side of
• 45:29
  Speaker 1: that outlier when the teams play again right away, because
• 45:32
  Speaker 1: that game's fresh in your mind. So the team it
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: didn't do well has all the adjustments to make. The
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: team it did do well has nothing to change, right
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: because they already just won the game. So what do
• 45:42
  Speaker 1: you have to do. You have nothing to fix. So
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: I like Orlando for those reasons. Now, Orlando was a
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: small favorite there. I think they were like a one
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: one and a half pay favorite there. Now the line
• 45:52
  Speaker 1: has swung basically six seven points actually towards Cleveland here,
• 45:57
  Speaker 1: so I think the line is actually skewed a little
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: bit towards what happened in that last game. So based
• 46:02
  Speaker 1: on the fact that Orlando was like a one and
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: a half point favorite in that game, really this line
• 46:06
  Speaker 1: should probably be closer to about four four and a half.
• 46:09
  Speaker 1: So I think the line did get moved a little
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: bit just because of that kind of blowout result, and
• 46:13
  Speaker 1: that's also part of the zigzag if you're getting line
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: value going against that recent result because there's recency bias
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: affecting the line. Yeah, I mean, I think you're getting
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: extra lin value because of that too. Now loosely, we
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: might even be able to get a higher number on this.
• 46:28
  Speaker 1: Potentially seventy two percent of the tickets and seventy nine
• 46:31
  Speaker 1: percent of the cash right now are coming in on
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: the calves. But I do not agree with that cash percentage.
• 46:36
  Speaker 1: I like Orlando here, man. If we look at this
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: box score, there were some things about this game that
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: were a little bit questionable. Orlando had a horrible shooting game.
• 46:45
  Speaker 1: They had the same amount of field goal attempts, so
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: they had ten fewer makes. So Orlando shot forty one percent,
• 46:51
  Speaker 1: Cleveland shot fifty three percent, and Cleveland hit fifteen threes
• 46:56
  Speaker 1: that shot forty four percent from three, where Orlando only
• 46:59
  Speaker 1: shot twenty eight percent. So I think that's those are outliers, man,
• 47:03
  Speaker 1: So I think you should see some regression back to
• 47:06
  Speaker 1: like the averages there as far as the shooting percentages
• 47:08
  Speaker 1: where Cleveland overshot and Orlando undershot. So I think you're
• 47:12
  Speaker 1: gonna see some positive regression for Orlando, some negative regression
• 47:16
  Speaker 1: for Cleveland coming into this game. The rebounding battle is
• 47:20
  Speaker 1: really close, and that's all we want here is we
• 47:22
  Speaker 1: want Orlando to play close. Statistically, the game was actually
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: pretty close. Yeah, Orlando did have ten more free throw attempts,
• 47:30
  Speaker 1: so that's a little bit of a concern that they
• 47:31
  Speaker 1: had that many more free throw attempts that still didn't win,
• 47:33
  Speaker 1: But a lot of it was because of the shooting
• 47:35
  Speaker 1: outliers Man, So I think there's definitely room for Orlando
• 47:39
  Speaker 1: to bounce back a little bit. Orlando is without Wagner still, remember,
• 47:43
  Speaker 1: so it looks like Suggs is playing a bunchero is fine,
• 47:47
  Speaker 1: So they're just without Wagner here, but he was also
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: out in the previous game. So yes, we're not looking
• 47:52
  Speaker 1: at an injured player theory spot. I know, I think
• 47:54
  Speaker 1: the injured player spot was the previous game against Cleveland,
• 47:57
  Speaker 1: and I know usually I liked the team in the
• 47:58
  Speaker 1: injured player spot because usually they play really hard, they
• 48:01
  Speaker 1: play well. Orlando didn't get it done. But I think
• 48:05
  Speaker 1: because they didn't play well in that game, I think
• 48:07
  Speaker 1: they're still a play on team in this game, getting
• 48:11
  Speaker 1: more points than they would be otherwise now for Cleveland.
• 48:16
  Speaker 1: Cleveland's on a nice role here man. So they did
• 48:18
  Speaker 1: just beat Orlando on the road, and that also makes
• 48:20
  Speaker 1: Orlando an avenging road underdog two, which I like. But
• 48:24
  Speaker 1: I think Cleveland also might be looking ahead, man. I mean,
• 48:26
  Speaker 1: they just beat Orlando, so are they're really gonna care
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: about Orlando again playing them again right now? And they
• 48:31
  Speaker 1: just beat them by double digits on the road. And
• 48:33
  Speaker 1: up next ESPN game for Cleveland against the La Lakers.
• 48:37
  Speaker 1: That's a pretty big game, man. That's Cleveland getting to
• 48:40
  Speaker 1: face Lebron again. Lebron the enemy of Cleveland again at
• 48:44
  Speaker 1: this point, even though he did bring them a title finally.
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: But I think that's a bigger game. I think it's
• 48:49
  Speaker 1: a look ahead. So we're gonna zig zag in this
• 48:51
  Speaker 1: one and we'll take the magic plus the points there. Oh,
• 48:55
  Speaker 1: that's probably my least favorite of my three plays. The
• 48:58
  Speaker 1: market reed looked like it was a great with me
• 49:00
  Speaker 1: on that one earlier and now it's not. But whatever,
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: all right, we'll probably only be around an hour on
• 49:05
  Speaker 1: the show too. That's not too bad. Portland at my
• 49:08
  Speaker 1: Boston Celtics on Peacock. This is the return of drew
• 49:11
  Speaker 1: Holiday to Boston. I don't think he's played back in
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: Boston since the trade. He is playing for Portland right now.
• 49:18
  Speaker 1: He's been hurt for a lot of the season. But yeah,
• 49:21
  Speaker 1: I mean might be a little bit of a motivating
• 49:23
  Speaker 1: factor for Portland and for Holiday coming into this one.
• 49:26
  Speaker 1: Of course, Portland's not gonna overlook Boston. Now. Portland is
• 49:30
  Speaker 1: coming up a very ugly loss. They did lose a
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: win streak. They lost a four game win streak with
• 49:35
  Speaker 1: their last game, And I do a lot of times
• 49:37
  Speaker 1: talk about how when a team loses a win streak
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: will be hung over, but I don't think that'll be
• 49:41
  Speaker 1: the case here because they got blown out at home
• 49:43
  Speaker 1: by Toronto. They were on a back to back in
• 49:46
  Speaker 1: that game, coming up beating Miami, so I think they
• 49:49
  Speaker 1: just weren't in a bad spot. They had a bad game,
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: and they might have been looking ahead to Boston. Now
• 49:53
  Speaker 1: they're starting a road trip, which is usually a focused spot.
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: You get to go out on the road forget about
• 49:58
  Speaker 1: what just happened at home, just focus on bad basketball.
• 50:00
  Speaker 1: And it's a nationally televised game and it's against the
• 50:03
  Speaker 1: Boston Celtics, so I think it's a big game for Portland.
• 50:06
  Speaker 1: Then now the Celtics may not overlook Portland because Portland
• 50:11
  Speaker 1: did beat them back in Portland on December twenty eighth,
• 50:15
  Speaker 1: And I believe the Celtics are kind of in a
• 50:17
  Speaker 1: bad spot in that game. Let me see, No, not really.
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: Actually they just beaaten Orlando or excuse the Indiana twice,
• 50:26
  Speaker 1: I guess, and they had Utah on deck. Not really. Yeah,
• 50:29
  Speaker 1: it wasn't really a bad spot. They Celtics had a
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: bad game in that game against Portland. So maybe that's
• 50:34
  Speaker 1: one thing that will keep the Celtics focus a little
• 50:36
  Speaker 1: bit here. But I don't know, man. The Celtics were
• 50:40
  Speaker 1: turning over from a road trouble. It was only a
• 50:42
  Speaker 1: Friday Saturday road trip to Brooklyn and Chicago, so it's
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: not really one of those long road trips that will
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: really affect you. They only have Atlanta up next. They
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: might not be totally focused on Atlanta after smashing them
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: on the road on the seventeenth. Like I said, so
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: there are some reasons why maybe the Celtics will still
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: show up here against Portland. Celtics are coming up two
• 51:01
  Speaker 1: fairly bad games against Brooklyn and Chicago. They had to
• 51:04
  Speaker 1: play those games back to back, so the Celtics did
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: rest some of their guys. They rested White in the
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: first game, although he did play in the second game
• 51:12
  Speaker 1: and Brown played him both, So I don't know. And
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: the Celtics aren't playing a third game in four days,
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: fourth game in six days, fifth game in eight days,
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: and a six game in ten days, which is not
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: that easy, and seventh and twelve actually most of them
• 51:28
  Speaker 1: in different cities with a lot of road games in there,
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: so the Celtics are not totally rested in this game,
• 51:35
  Speaker 1: and that would be a concern as well. I'm staying
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: away from the game, but I think Portland. The game
• 51:40
  Speaker 1: does set up a little bit better for Portland here
• 51:42
  Speaker 1: and again the Celtics return from a two game roatrip.
• 51:46
  Speaker 1: But it's not like stuff piled up that you have
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: to do at home. But I don't know. Maybe, I mean,
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: it just snowed while the Celtics are away, so they
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: probably pay like plows and stuff to just shovel them
• 51:57
  Speaker 1: out and whatever. But I don't know, man, maybe the
• 51:59
  Speaker 1: maybe their players have to come back and shovel themselves
• 52:02
  Speaker 1: out and whatever, and they have more to do at
• 52:03
  Speaker 1: home than they would otherwise returning back to the snow.
• 52:05
  Speaker 1: So if I was gonna play the game, I would
• 52:07
  Speaker 1: take the points with the Trailblazers. As a fan, I
• 52:10
  Speaker 1: hope the Celtics can at least get out of there
• 52:12
  Speaker 1: with a win. But uh, Celtics are down from nine
• 52:15
  Speaker 1: to eight here on the line, sixty four percent of
• 52:18
  Speaker 1: the ticket, sixty percent of the cash on the Celtics.
• 52:21
  Speaker 1: So the market reed is saying to fade the Celtics,
• 52:24
  Speaker 1: which I do agree with, but not a play for me.
• 52:29
  Speaker 1: Lakers at Chicago. Lakers are coming into this game of
• 52:33
  Speaker 1: a beating Dallas, which normally I wouldn't say that's a
• 52:35
  Speaker 1: huge deal, but it is still kind of the Luca
• 52:38
  Speaker 1: battle there, so it might be a little bit bigger
• 52:40
  Speaker 1: than maybe it looks like on the surface. And the Lakers,
• 52:42
  Speaker 1: of course have the Lebron battle next against Cleveland, with
• 52:46
  Speaker 1: Lebron going back to his former team, although you know,
• 52:50
  Speaker 1: going back to his former city, I should say, well,
• 52:52
  Speaker 1: of course, it's not like he hasn't played against Cleveland
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: with the Lakers, but whatever, that is still a big game.
• 52:56
  Speaker 1: It's an ESPN game, so I could maybe see the
• 52:59
  Speaker 1: Lakers potentially overlook at Chicago here, but Chicago's coming up
• 53:03
  Speaker 1: a big game themselves. Man, they just beat the Celtics,
• 53:06
  Speaker 1: and it's not that easy to have to play the
• 53:07
  Speaker 1: Celtics and the Lakers in two games in a row.
• 53:11
  Speaker 1: Although at least for Chicago they have some momentum here,
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: they are staying at home. I'll slightly lean to the
• 53:17
  Speaker 1: Bulls in this one. The market was kind of agreeing
• 53:21
  Speaker 1: with it at first, but I'm staying away from it.
• 53:24
  Speaker 1: The Lakers drop from a three point favorite to a
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: one point favorite here, sixty five percent to take it,
• 53:28
  Speaker 1: sixty eight percent of the cash on the Lakers, So
• 53:32
  Speaker 1: it looks like the cash percentages slightly towards the Lakers
• 53:35
  Speaker 1: right now. But we do have to see why did
• 53:36
  Speaker 1: that line drop, right, I mean, it doesn't look like
• 53:40
  Speaker 1: there's a real reason for it. We know the Bulls
• 53:42
  Speaker 1: have had Giddiback for a couple of games now. Reeves
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: is still out for the Lakers. It looks like he
• 53:47
  Speaker 1: might come back in the next game. So there's no
• 53:50
  Speaker 1: real change for these teams between one game and the next.
• 53:53
  Speaker 1: So I don't really know why the line would have
• 53:57
  Speaker 1: dropped like that, other than unless maybe Reeves was supposed
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: to play this game and now he isn't. But no
• 54:02
  Speaker 1: change because he hasn't been back, so he's been out
• 54:05
  Speaker 1: for a while, so whatever. But I do slightly lead
• 54:08
  Speaker 1: to Chicago and that one. Don't think it's strong by
• 54:11
  Speaker 1: any means though, last play of the day, eight pm,
• 54:16
  Speaker 1: we're gonna be on the Memphis Grizzlies plus ten and
• 54:18
  Speaker 1: a half. And now Memphis they do not have John Morant.
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: He's hurt again, or hurt because maybe he's just a
• 54:24
  Speaker 1: chemistry disrupted her and they don't want him here anymore. Now,
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: Memphis probably should have played better in that first game
• 54:31
  Speaker 1: without Moran. Man. I don't know what that was, because
• 54:34
  Speaker 1: Memphis had gone to Europe to play the two games
• 54:38
  Speaker 1: in Europe they split with Orlando. They came back home,
• 54:40
  Speaker 1: and it was understandable that they lost that game coming
• 54:43
  Speaker 1: back home from Europe, but then to be at home
• 54:46
  Speaker 1: in the next game and then in the injured player spot,
• 54:48
  Speaker 1: knowing you got to play hard with Moran not there
• 54:50
  Speaker 1: and to play still really poorly against New Orleans. I
• 54:53
  Speaker 1: don't know what they did in that game, man, but
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: I think that does set up Memphis to refocus in
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: this game, and maybe you could argue Memphis was looking
• 55:00
  Speaker 1: ahead to Denver and Houston and they were gonna have
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: to play Denver yesterday. They were gonna have to play
• 55:06
  Speaker 1: Denver Houston back to back. But now that that game
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: got postponed and Memphis didn't have to travel for it
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: because Memphis was staying at home, that means Memphis has
• 55:15
  Speaker 1: a little bit of extra rest here and they're coming
• 55:17
  Speaker 1: into Houston rested instead of having played Denver yesterday. So
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: this gives us an additional play. I think because the
• 55:24
  Speaker 1: game got postponed for weather yesterday, Yeah, it might mean
• 55:27
  Speaker 1: that Memphis maybe their travel plans to get out to
• 55:30
  Speaker 1: Houston might be a little bit messed up because the
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: snow is over and done with. Like up here, it's
• 55:35
  Speaker 1: basically done, and I think in Memphis it was done
• 55:38
  Speaker 1: earlier than it was here. So I think they should
• 55:41
  Speaker 1: be fine with this travel spot. And I think it's
• 55:42
  Speaker 1: gonna be good for Memphis to just leave home after
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: another home loss, and in fact, a bad home loss
• 55:48
  Speaker 1: to the Pelicans. I think you will get an effort
• 55:50
  Speaker 1: out of Memphis here man, and Memphis has been pretty
• 55:53
  Speaker 1: fine without Morant. Like I said, I think he disrupts
• 55:56
  Speaker 1: the chemistry like, I'm not sure that Memphis is even
• 55:58
  Speaker 1: that much worse at all without Morant in the lineup,
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: So I'm not really that concerned by that. I think
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: they're gonna be focused. They're playing Houston here, I mean,
• 56:06
  Speaker 1: that's a big game, and for Houston. I think the
• 56:09
  Speaker 1: spot is awful for Houston. Houston also has a couple
• 56:14
  Speaker 1: of days off, sure, but they're returning over from a
• 56:16
  Speaker 1: road treble that was only Thursday Friday, so it's not
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: like a full road trip. But they still did go
• 56:22
  Speaker 1: up to Philadelphia and played them into overtime, and then
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: they beat Detroit in Detroit, and they did that. I'm
• 56:29
  Speaker 1: back to back nights Thursday Friday, and prior to that,
• 56:32
  Speaker 1: they'd beaten San Antonio at home prior to that, so
• 56:35
  Speaker 1: they've had three big games in a row in the
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: past week. Man, and now they're coming off all that
• 56:41
  Speaker 1: returning home. I think they could be at least in
• 56:42
  Speaker 1: a letdown spot off of that game against Detroit. They're
• 56:46
  Speaker 1: coming back home. It was only a two game road trip.
• 56:49
  Speaker 1: Maybe there could still be maybe some distractions coming into
• 56:52
  Speaker 1: play here because they've been away for a little while. Yes,
• 56:54
  Speaker 1: they've already gotten back home, so maybe they've done some stuff,
• 56:57
  Speaker 1: but I just don't really see them focusing on Memphis either.
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: I think maybe they're just kind of returning home, listening
• 57:03
  Speaker 1: to the media talking about how they're playing really well.
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: They just got a huge win over Detroit. Everything's looking awesome.
• 57:09
  Speaker 1: They could look right past a morantless Memphis team here
• 57:12
  Speaker 1: man Houston. They got San Antonio up next on Wednesday
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: on ESPN. That is a huge game. Even though Houston
• 57:19
  Speaker 1: did just beat San Antonio, you're still gonna be looking
• 57:21
  Speaker 1: ahead when you gotta play San Antonio. Man a Texas
• 57:25
  Speaker 1: battle there. San Antonio has actually been the better of
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: the two teams, although I'm not really sure I would
• 57:30
  Speaker 1: say San Antonio really is the better of the two
• 57:33
  Speaker 1: teams there in Texas. But that's still like a battle
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: for Texas supremacy. It's a much much bigger game. So
• 57:39
  Speaker 1: we're looking at a sandwich here for Houston. I think
• 57:41
  Speaker 1: we're looking at a bounce back spot for the Grizzlies.
• 57:44
  Speaker 1: We're on Memphis in this one. It looks like the
• 57:46
  Speaker 1: Rockets we're gonna be a twelve point favorite. I don't
• 57:50
  Speaker 1: know when the line was twelve, and I don't really
• 57:52
  Speaker 1: see a reason why the line dropped like that because
• 57:54
  Speaker 1: there doesn't seem to be any real personnel issue that
• 57:57
  Speaker 1: would cause that, Like no real injury that would change
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: the line like that. But we're looking at ten and
• 58:01
  Speaker 1: a half. We're still getting a lot of points here
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: with but I think it's still a competent Memphis team.
• 58:07
  Speaker 1: I mean, we're still looking at a team that was
• 58:08
  Speaker 1: a playoff team last year, and their personnel wasn't that
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: much different from last year. Seventy one percent of tickets,
• 58:14
  Speaker 1: fifty two percent of the cash on the rockets, so
• 58:16
  Speaker 1: they are very public with a lot less of the
• 58:18
  Speaker 1: cash on them. So we're on Memphis plus the points
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: there and that is my final play. So maybe I'm
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: not being selective enough in the NBA, but that's what
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: we got. And then we have Golden State and Minnesota
• 58:30
  Speaker 1: on Peacock. And because Minnesota decided to postpone the game
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: the other day because of the ice shooting, because of
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: an ice storm, Oh, they wound up postponing Saturday's game
• 58:44
  Speaker 1: and playing it yesterday instead, So now they're playing back
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: to back games in Minnesota. And what happened in that game, Yeah,
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: I think all that stuff going on became a distraction, man,
• 58:53
  Speaker 1: because Golden State annihilated Minnesota in that game one eleven
• 58:57
  Speaker 1: to eighty five. And I told you I leaned to
• 58:59
  Speaker 1: Golden State in that game. The line, for some reason,
• 59:02
  Speaker 1: it moved up a little bit more on Minnesota to
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: about seven. I didn't think the line move made a
• 59:06
  Speaker 1: ton of sense. I think it actually dropped back down
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: to five and a half. I think some of the
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: money agreed with me eventually and came in on Golden State.
• 59:13
  Speaker 1: It was a huge playoff revenge scenario for Golden State
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: because Minnesota eliminated them from the playoffs last year. That
• 59:20
  Speaker 1: was a huge win for Golden State. Man. But now
• 59:23
  Speaker 1: the back to back Minnesota staying at home, I think
• 59:26
  Speaker 1: the shoe was on the other foot. Now games on Peacock,
• 59:29
  Speaker 1: I think Minnesota's gonna have all the adjustments to make.
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: I mean, this team just embarrassed you on your own floor.
• 59:35
  Speaker 1: Sure it's still a big game for Golden State, but
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: I would zigzag this one as well. If I was
• 59:40
  Speaker 1: gonna play it, I would lay the points with Minnesota.
• 59:42
  Speaker 1: To hear, the problem is you are having to lay
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: probably a few too many points here the Tea Wolves
• 59:47
  Speaker 1: again when they were gonna play the game on Saturday,
• 59:50
  Speaker 1: they were about five and a half six. The line
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: yesterday was about seven to seven and a half and
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: it dropped to about five and a half. It's sitting
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: at seven and a half again. So I think the
• 59:58
  Speaker 1: oddsmakers have pushed this line because they know about the
• 1:00:03
  Speaker 1: zig zag in this case, I think they have moved
• 1:00:06
  Speaker 1: the line in that direction that end. I think because
• 1:00:08
  Speaker 1: the t Wolves they kind of knew we were going to
• 1:00:10
  Speaker 1: be a public side here as well, even though the
• 1:00:12
  Speaker 1: public usually likes to play what they saw last, but
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 1: I think in this case they still prefer the Tea Wolves.
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: In this game, seventy five percent of tickets, ninety percent
• 1:00:22
  Speaker 1: of the cash on the Tea Wolves though, so I
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 1: think the real money is also on the Tea Wolves.
• 1:00:26
  Speaker 1: I would still only play the Tea Wolves in this one.
• 1:00:28
  Speaker 1: I mean they have well actually, I don't know if
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 1: the public really would even want to be on them
• 1:00:32
  Speaker 1: because they've lost five games in a row. So I
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 1: don't know, man, but I think they will show up
• 1:00:37
  Speaker 1: after getting totally embarrassed here on their home floor. If
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 1: you look at what happened in this game, the te
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: Wolves had a horrible shooting game. So that was part
• 1:00:45
  Speaker 1: of the reason why. Although Golden State had way more
• 1:00:49
  Speaker 1: field goal attempts in the games, that does look like
• 1:00:51
  Speaker 1: they kind of dominated the game, but some of that
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 1: was because of turnovers. This is obviously a very unfocused
• 1:00:57
  Speaker 1: performance from Minnesota. They had twenty six turnovers. That's not
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: gonna happen again, and that's something it's easy to clean up.
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's all about focus, being more disciplined. Minnesota's
• 1:01:08
  Speaker 1: not gonna turn it over twenty six times again, man,
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 1: So that number, there's a lot of room for regression
• 1:01:13
  Speaker 1: in that number there. Minnesota also was horrible from the
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: free throw line in the game, sixty percent. They were
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: just they obviously were a very distracted team yesterday. They
• 1:01:22
  Speaker 1: were missing everything, had a ton of turnovers. It was
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 1: a horrific game for them. So I expect them to
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 1: play a lot better in this game. And they still
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: won the rebounding battles. That's a good sign that they actually,
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 1: in some ways actually were the better team in the game.
• 1:01:35
  Speaker 1: So if I was gonna play the game, yes, I
• 1:01:37
  Speaker 1: would lay it with the Minnesota in that one, and
• 1:01:39
  Speaker 1: that's gonna do it. Man. We got about an hour
• 1:01:41
  Speaker 1: show Today, the plays today one more time Islanders in
• 1:01:44
  Speaker 1: hockey on the money line, and then we're loading up
• 1:01:46
  Speaker 1: on NBA. We got Charlotte Hornets as a favorite minus
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 1: the points, magic plus the points. Hopefully that does give
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 1: us some magic. And then we're on the Grizzlies plus
• 1:01:56
  Speaker 1: the points in the NBA. Even though there are no
• 1:02:01
  Speaker 1: Grizzlies in Memphis. Man, they moved from Vancouver, where there
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: are Grizzlies, So I don't know. I mean, I don't know.
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 1: Kind of a weird name, but weird name for a
• 1:02:11
  Speaker 1: Memphis team, but it's stuck. They could have changed their
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 1: name to the Bears. I don't know. But whatever, it's
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: gonna do it. Grizzlies has a decent ring to it.
• 1:02:19
  Speaker 1: Still the that's gonna do it. Man, Thanks for hanging
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 1: out everybody. I learned. Learned it toe on Twitter, learned
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 1: it tone on Instagram, like subscribe, give me good comments
• 1:02:28
  Speaker 1: on the channel. Here. We're gonna boost this channel. Man,
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 1: hasn't been taken off. I wanted to take off. I
• 1:02:33
  Speaker 1: gotta change something, man. Maybe I gotta look better. I
• 1:02:36
  Speaker 1: gotta have a different set behind me, make this thing
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: look better. I don't know. Maybe I got to hire
• 1:02:42
  Speaker 1: a producer with the no money that I have right now,
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: I don't know. We're on audio as well. Apple Spotify
• 1:02:48
  Speaker 1: helps me out. If you listen to the audio, give
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 1: me reviews over there covered in you because my yuke
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 1: channel on YouTube. You can check that out Patreon dot com,
• 1:02:55
  Speaker 1: slash learn to toad. He gets a bonus yuke stuff
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: there and Loser casts will be back tomorrow night, so
• 1:03:03
  Speaker 1: you can check that out as well. The comedy podcast
• 1:03:07
  Speaker 1: that I'm on late night after Legion of Skanks, that's
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 1: gonna do it. Let's get some winns tonight. Much far
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 1: more placed today than we had yesterday. Man. It's sometimes
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 1: it's just about like how many spots there are that
• 1:03:18
  Speaker 1: I see that are worth it, and let's get it done. Man.
• 1:03:20
  Speaker 1: We're gonna have a lot of college basketball upcoming. I'll
• 1:03:23
  Speaker 1: probably be back tonight for the weekly bracketology show that
• 1:03:27
  Speaker 1: I do, so I gotta get that in order. We'll see,
• 1:03:30
  Speaker 1: but for now, have a good one. Gonna hibernate for
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: a bit while the snow finishes up. Peace, everybody,