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The Favorites - NFL Best Bets Conference Championships · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:08
  Speaker 1: Welcome to The Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: sixty five.
• 0:13
  Speaker 2: We are part of the.
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: Volume podcast Network. I am Chad Millman of the Action Network.
• 0:18
  Speaker 1: I am live from my time of John Home Studio,
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: and I'm joined as always by my co host, my companion,
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: Michael Padre might beff professional better Sigmon Hunter et Osymon.
• 0:31
  Speaker 3: Chad, how are we doing, brother?
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: I'm so glad we're starting the show because from the
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: time we got on fifteen minutes ago until literally the
• 0:41
  Speaker 1: second we went live, Matt Mitchell did not shut the
• 0:46
  Speaker 1: fuck out. Loved it, like fifteen straight minutes of talking.
• 0:52
  Speaker 1: What it was like listening to my mother in law
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: on hyperspeed, who can cover one thousand different topics in
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: the span of fifteen minutes without anyone even responding, making
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: eye contact, looking up, asking a question. I want to
• 1:09
  Speaker 1: have Matt Mitchell come on the show today to talk
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: about the bills. I know he's made a massive bet
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: on the bills. I'm a little nervous about it because
• 1:16
  Speaker 1: I know he likes to keep the shows tight and
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: that might add forty five fucking minutes.
• 1:20
  Speaker 2: To the show. So we'll have to see how we're.
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: Feeling when we get to the Chiefs Bills game to
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: see if we want to add Matt Mitchell and his
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: nonsense on the show. Today, Today's our Conference Championship Weekend
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Best Bets episode. As we did last week, we will
• 1:38
  Speaker 1: not only be reviewing the sides for this weekend's games,
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: we are adding any other bets we like as well,
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: hopefully going to give folks more to look forward, root forward,
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: think about this weekend. We will also be including the
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: best options for our Foxhoul as well as our Tommy
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: John Big Balls bet of the week, and we will
• 1:54
  Speaker 1: just of course discuss Simon's the Biggest Bets play, Scoot Roulette,
• 1:58
  Speaker 1: all that jazz plus Today, I do want to have
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: a conversation about two very important topics. One hedging. I
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: mentioned this on Tuesday. Simon and I both gave out
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: Super Bowl matchup bets on this very show before the
• 2:12
  Speaker 1: season began. We each have one AFC team and one
• 2:15
  Speaker 1: NFC team from those bets still alive, so we got
• 2:19
  Speaker 1: a shot that may be true for a lot of you.
• 2:22
  Speaker 1: So how do we hedge if we want to? Do
• 2:23
  Speaker 1: you want to cash out? I got that question on Twitter. Also,
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: I want to talk about Super Bowl futures. There's four
• 2:30
  Speaker 1: teams left if you choose to get some value before
• 2:35
  Speaker 1: the big game.
• 2:36
  Speaker 2: Now is the last chance.
• 2:39
  Speaker 1: As we were last Sunday, we will be on Sunday
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: night after the end of the second game. This is
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: the Bills Chiefs this weekend. We will come on live
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: after that first look at Super Bowl review of what
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: happened during the day. Bets are rolling in lines or moving,
• 2:56
  Speaker 1: decisions need to be made. As our volume podcast, Boss
• 2:59
  Speaker 1: Colin I Heard likes to say.
• 3:01
  Speaker 4: There's a sea of money out there.
• 3:03
  Speaker 1: As a reminder, The Favorites podcast is presented by Bet
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: three sixty five and now new Bet three six five.
• 3:10
  Speaker 1: Customers get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: when you bet five dollars, sign up using promo code Favorites,
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: deposit ten dollars. Place a bet for five dollars to
• 3:18
  Speaker 1: get one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. Those
• 3:21
  Speaker 1: bonus bets can be used on spreads, totals, player props,
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: futures and more. Whatever the moment, it's never ordinary. I
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: Bet three sixty five must be twenty one or older.
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: In present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, North Carolina,
• 3:33
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia or eighteen and older in Kentucky.
• 3:38
  Speaker 1: Gambling problem called one eight hundred gambler or one eight
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: hundred bets off in Iowa terms. Conditioned restrictions apply all right,
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: as always on Thursdays, we'd like to hear are the
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: wise guys that are responding to our Tuesday conversation. Fewer games,
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: but still lots of opinions. We are very influential. Lines
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: have already moved based in our conversations.
• 4:00
  Speaker 2: Get some opinions from the wise guys. Simon, let's do
• 4:03
  Speaker 2: shove calls.
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: Hello, who's there? I'm talking Rain.
• 4:11
  Speaker 1: Rain telephone range, somebody saying maybe what you do man?
• 4:16
  Speaker 3: Yeah? Interesting? Weeks shocked.
• 4:18
  Speaker 5: I thought it was gonna be everyone on our side,
• 4:20
  Speaker 5: to be honest with you, Chad. It felt like we're
• 4:22
  Speaker 5: going up against two very public dogs. But there is
• 4:25
  Speaker 5: some really smart money on the other side, and we
• 4:28
  Speaker 5: can start the commanders guys, I respect taking a position
• 4:31
  Speaker 5: on that side, and I think it really does come
• 4:33
  Speaker 5: down to Hurts his health. They think they are getting
• 4:36
  Speaker 5: a good number here because Hurts is not gonna do
• 4:38
  Speaker 5: what he can normally do, and I still think it's
• 4:40
  Speaker 5: being overrated. It's like they don't rely on Hurts. This
• 4:43
  Speaker 5: is not a team built around Hurts. This is the
• 4:45
  Speaker 5: team built rely.
• 4:46
  Speaker 3: On the running games.
• 4:46
  Speaker 5: So definitely a lot of arguments right now about that
• 4:50
  Speaker 5: with I'm being told that I'm over valuing Hurts and
• 4:55
  Speaker 5: not understanding his injury and they think they're getting a
• 4:58
  Speaker 5: great number, and the bo backed that up. Most bookmakers
• 5:01
  Speaker 5: I've talked to it's heavy, heavy, Like there was really
• 5:04
  Speaker 5: heavy early money on the Eagles. Now it's basically all Washington.
• 5:08
  Speaker 5: Like they're all taking a six. It's not even close
• 5:11
  Speaker 5: on the money line. It's all money is coming in
• 5:14
  Speaker 5: on the money line for this Washington team. So yeah,
• 5:17
  Speaker 5: I can't dive to that, because that honestly makes you
• 5:18
  Speaker 5: feel even better, like the books needing a home favorite.
• 5:22
  Speaker 5: Like even when I'm talking to the bookmakers, they are
• 5:24
  Speaker 5: laughing about it because again, Chiefs are basically the same
• 5:26
  Speaker 5: exact spots as the Eagles. It's all bills money. All
• 5:30
  Speaker 5: the money coming in right now is bills. All the
• 5:32
  Speaker 5: teasers are on the bills. So yeah, if you're like
• 5:36
  Speaker 5: me and you talk to bookmakers and you go to
• 5:38
  Speaker 5: a lot of different books.
• 5:39
  Speaker 3: They're very happy right now in their position to be
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: in right.
• 5:42
  Speaker 5: They are in the position of they need two home
• 5:44
  Speaker 5: favorites to cover and win, and on the futures market,
• 5:48
  Speaker 5: the best outcome for them is the Chiefs. The Chiefs
• 5:51
  Speaker 5: have never I mean Evan could probably test this. I
• 5:52
  Speaker 5: don't think they ever got above plus seven hundred for
• 5:54
  Speaker 5: the entire season. So this is a team that basically
• 5:57
  Speaker 5: never got really high odds. On the flip side, if
• 6:00
  Speaker 5: the Commanders make it to the Super Bowl, they'll be crushed.
• 6:03
  Speaker 5: Like that's a position that you know, Joe Schmoe down
• 6:06
  Speaker 5: the street that bet them at one hundred to one
• 6:08
  Speaker 5: or one hundred and fifty to one can be able
• 6:09
  Speaker 5: to hedge, and professionals will build aheage. So it is
• 6:12
  Speaker 5: interesting talking to the perspective of the book makers and
• 6:15
  Speaker 5: the perspective of the professionals that you know, I get
• 6:18
  Speaker 5: why they love the Bills, I get why they love Commanders.
• 6:20
  Speaker 5: It's a coin flip type of game. But I do
• 6:22
  Speaker 5: think their numbers have overrated both those sides. So yeah,
• 6:26
  Speaker 5: I'm looking forward to diving to these games even more
• 6:27
  Speaker 5: chat because it does seem like, you know, coming into it.
• 6:30
  Speaker 5: I was a little nervous our positions, you know, me
• 6:32
  Speaker 5: and chat I don't love betting favorites, especially chalk favorites,
• 6:35
  Speaker 5: not chalk favorites. In this spot, we are definitely taking,
• 6:38
  Speaker 5: shockingly the underdog kind of favorites in the spot of
• 6:41
  Speaker 5: everyone's backing the dogs on the road and we are
• 6:44
  Speaker 5: actually the ones going off trail here and taking their
• 6:48
  Speaker 5: home favorites, which is pretty shocking position to be in.
• 6:50
  Speaker 2: All right, I love it.
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: That is a great tea out for what we're going
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: to talk about, because it's Washington and Philadelphia. The number
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: at bet three sixty five is minus six. The total
• 6:59
  Speaker 1: is forty seven and a half. I have seen this
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: at six and a half in some spots. But guess what,
• 7:08
  Speaker 1: right off the bat.
• 7:10
  Speaker 2: Our Big Ball Bet of the Week.
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: Presented by Tommy John. If you've got the balls, Tommy
• 7:18
  Speaker 1: John has the support great game, start with great underwear.
• 7:22
  Speaker 1: Tommy John makes the greatest.
• 7:27
  Speaker 2: Man number six.
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: Like I said, tighter to six and a half already
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: there in some spots. I do want to give you
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: one funny story. As a Philly native, you can appreciate this.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: So my younger son, my eighteen year old, has discovered
• 7:48
  Speaker 1: It's Always Sunny and he's been watching it constantly lately.
• 7:54
  Speaker 1: And if I'm in the same room with him at
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: the same time and like he's just watching it, I
• 7:58
  Speaker 1: end up sitting down and watching a few episodes and
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: like he's in the beginning, he's only in season two, right,
• 8:04
  Speaker 1: So it's going back.
• 8:05
  Speaker 2: Eighteen nineteen years.
• 8:07
  Speaker 1: And the episode that came on yesterday that I watched
• 8:11
  Speaker 1: with him, The Gang Gets Invincible.
• 8:15
  Speaker 2: I don't know if you remember.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: This episode, of course, but this is the episode where
• 8:21
  Speaker 1: Mac and Dennis and de try out for the Eagles,
• 8:24
  Speaker 1: because it's right when the movie Invincible came out and
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: everybody in Philly, every fucking Philly scumbag decided they're Vince
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: Papali and they can go try out for the Eagles
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: and they're gonna make the Eagles.
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: Lies moving philos.
• 8:40
  Speaker 4: Come on, get on the bus bus. What the hell
• 8:42
  Speaker 4: are you talking about? The bus that takes you to
• 8:44
  Speaker 4: the field? Oh wait, I thought we were going to
• 8:46
  Speaker 4: be playing on the link.
• 8:47
  Speaker 5: You think, you dip shit's going to play on the
• 8:48
  Speaker 5: same field that champions play on.
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: Where are we going? We're going to a shitty high
• 8:54
  Speaker 3: school in Bucks County gets your ass on the bus,
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: straight to the bus, Straight to the bus.
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: So on the show Shoh, they have a tryout that
• 9:02
  Speaker 1: is inspired by Vince for Polly making it, and they say,
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: we got to do it because the New Kids on
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: the Block.
• 9:08
  Speaker 2: Movie about the guy making the team, you know, because
• 9:11
  Speaker 2: Mark Wahlberger wrote for and So.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: So I'm watching it and in the middle of it,
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: I don't say anything about it. In the middle of it,
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: my kids says to me, didn't you like do something
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: about some dude who tried up for the Eagles. I'm like, yeah,
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: I wrote the book Invincible. It's on a shelf ten
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: feet from where you're sitting right now. I wrote it
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: when you were just born so we could put food
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: on the fucking table. I cannot believe you cannot even
• 9:42
  Speaker 1: remember how many times we've talked about this book and
• 9:45
  Speaker 1: you cannot remember that I wrote the book Invincible.
• 9:49
  Speaker 2: No, there's no respect in my house, Simon.
• 9:53
  Speaker 5: I love that you watch UP. So a great episode
• 9:55
  Speaker 5: cameo by Donovan McNabb. Yeah, Frank Reynold's getting stuck in
• 9:59
  Speaker 5: a back after I should say.
• 10:00
  Speaker 2: Oh my god.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: On the Green Man and by the way, it wasn't
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: a Donovan McNabb cameo.
• 10:06
  Speaker 2: That's the joke, I know, because it's so good.
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: It's such a good show, Like I haven't watched it
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: in a while because, like I feel like I was
• 10:16
  Speaker 1: just caught up.
• 10:17
  Speaker 2: Man.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: It is so funny. It makes me love Philly. You
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: know how much I love Philly. It makes me love
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: Philly even more.
• 10:24
  Speaker 6: I'm the trash man.
• 10:27
  Speaker 1: And I love the Eagles even more. This is our
• 10:30
  Speaker 1: big Balls. I kind of feel like it might need
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: to be our foxhole too. We might need to double
• 10:35
  Speaker 1: down here the same way we did with the chiefs
• 10:37
  Speaker 1: On Simon says and exact because if all this money
• 10:41
  Speaker 1: is starting to come in the Commanders, it really does
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: feel like we're starting to be alone here.
• 10:47
  Speaker 3: It's God damn it.
• 10:50
  Speaker 5: You get into this time of year and it's really
• 10:52
  Speaker 5: is opinion heavy, and guys try to just throw the
• 10:54
  Speaker 5: numbers out, which I would love to make fun of
• 10:57
  Speaker 5: them and everything like that.
• 10:58
  Speaker 3: But I do that too.
• 10:59
  Speaker 5: Like that Bill's spot last week, Chad was totally right
• 11:02
  Speaker 5: in his thinking of the Bills were not the better
• 11:05
  Speaker 5: team that that. You know, Raven's team were better on
• 11:08
  Speaker 5: paper in almost every metric, but I kept saying, you
• 11:10
  Speaker 5: had to throw the numbers out. And this is the
• 11:13
  Speaker 5: type of game where there's plenty of guys making their statement,
• 11:16
  Speaker 5: taking their position on this Washington team, and it has
• 11:19
  Speaker 5: the same view of it. They know that this is
• 11:21
  Speaker 5: not as good of a team as the Eagles on paper.
• 11:24
  Speaker 3: They know that this is, you.
• 11:26
  Speaker 5: Know, I don't want to say a fluke, but it
• 11:29
  Speaker 5: is a fluke. Come on, let's be real, people, this
• 11:30
  Speaker 5: is the sixth seed. We know how rare this is.
• 11:33
  Speaker 5: I think Evan had an.
• 11:34
  Speaker 2: Amazing See it was a rookie quarterback, right.
• 11:37
  Speaker 5: Evan had an amazing piece about this. How it's like this,
• 11:39
  Speaker 5: this has never happens. And obviously, as an Eagles fan,
• 11:44
  Speaker 5: it doesn't get much better. I'm my team is literally
• 11:46
  Speaker 5: a game away from beating a rookie quarterback six seed
• 11:49
  Speaker 5: at home to make the super Bowl. You literally can't
• 11:52
  Speaker 5: have an easier position. The Chiefs got to play the
• 11:54
  Speaker 5: freaking Bills and vice versa. Like that's that. That's usually
• 11:57
  Speaker 5: whe you're getting conference championship games. You don't usually play
• 12:00
  Speaker 5: a rookie quarterback with a team that is just happy
• 12:03
  Speaker 5: to be there, right, This insane run that they've been on,
• 12:06
  Speaker 5: and yeah, it's been interesting breaking down the game, and
• 12:10
  Speaker 5: especially this week, all I'm really doing is watching a film, honestly,
• 12:14
  Speaker 5: Like that's that's what's so fun. When there's just two
• 12:15
  Speaker 5: games left, you can really dive into both teams and
• 12:18
  Speaker 5: obviously if you listen to show a year, I mean,
• 12:20
  Speaker 5: me and Chatt have talked adnows them about how much
• 12:22
  Speaker 5: we love Daniels and this Washington team and when we
• 12:24
  Speaker 5: bet them all season, we love them. I mean, I've
• 12:27
  Speaker 5: talked so much about how impressed I was with him,
• 12:30
  Speaker 5: and you know, this is a game though, you have
• 12:33
  Speaker 5: to really go back to what me and Chat talked
• 12:35
  Speaker 5: about their two previous games against the Bucks and the
• 12:37
  Speaker 5: lines and why they did win those games. Yes, Daniels
• 12:40
  Speaker 5: played incredible. It was all about turnovers, right, That to
• 12:43
  Speaker 5: me is at the end of the day, that was
• 12:44
  Speaker 5: the key to those games. And we've seen this playoffs
• 12:47
  Speaker 5: really dictated by that. Now that's not shocking anybody, right,
• 12:49
  Speaker 5: that's how it is usually. But you've seen teams play
• 12:53
  Speaker 5: these incredibly conservative born offenses. Three out of the four
• 12:57
  Speaker 5: teams have done that style this playoffs and have gotten
• 12:59
  Speaker 5: to this position. Now you know Daniels doesn't play that
• 13:02
  Speaker 5: way right. He's a high risk, highvariance type of player.
• 13:04
  Speaker 5: He's willing to push the ball downfield in those fifty
• 13:07
  Speaker 5: to fifty balls, he's willing he does.
• 13:08
  Speaker 1: He makes a lot of bad throws, like he's a
• 13:11
  Speaker 1: really right and he's incredibly accurate. I don't mean to
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: cut you off, but like, he's incredibly accurate, but he
• 13:17
  Speaker 1: makes a lot of downfield throws that if you're watching
• 13:20
  Speaker 1: it on television, the camera pans and these are millimeters
• 13:25
  Speaker 1: away from picks.
• 13:27
  Speaker 5: And when I found my watching this film, especially going
• 13:29
  Speaker 5: back to the earlier games, is how cool he is
• 13:32
  Speaker 5: in the pocket.
• 13:33
  Speaker 3: And we talked about that.
• 13:34
  Speaker 5: We were like, eventually he's gonna take a hit and
• 13:36
  Speaker 5: he won't be so calm cool in the pocket like
• 13:38
  Speaker 5: he was, and he did. It might have been your
• 13:40
  Speaker 5: Guys Bears game where he basically got rocked. I don't
• 13:43
  Speaker 5: know if his ribs got broken or bruised, but you
• 13:45
  Speaker 5: saw there was a three four game period there where
• 13:47
  Speaker 5: it was different, Like you could see that he after
• 13:50
  Speaker 5: that hit, it was different. And now he's back to
• 13:53
  Speaker 5: what he was though once he healed up and got
• 13:55
  Speaker 5: that confidence back, he's back to what he was in
• 13:57
  Speaker 5: week three four, Like that really confidence the pocket just I.
• 14:02
  Speaker 3: Can't get over how above his age he does play.
• 14:05
  Speaker 5: I know a lot of people have talked about this
• 14:06
  Speaker 5: week where it's like, you know, he might be a
• 14:08
  Speaker 5: rookie on paper, but he has like it feels like
• 14:10
  Speaker 5: a year five betteran mentality. He's just so smart, makes
• 14:14
  Speaker 5: the right decisions when he needs to, and yeah, when
• 14:17
  Speaker 5: you break it down, he'll be the X factor in
• 14:19
  Speaker 5: this matchup. But this really, like me and Chat talking,
• 14:21
  Speaker 5: this number really should be seven to seven and a half,
• 14:23
  Speaker 5: Like the fact that you know Golf who's never done
• 14:27
  Speaker 5: anything in the playoffs, honestly, Like this is the guy
• 14:30
  Speaker 5: with the lines that you know he has choked with
• 14:32
  Speaker 5: them and you could say, well he got to superl
• 14:34
  Speaker 5: the rams.
• 14:35
  Speaker 3: I mean, come on, let's be serious here.
• 14:38
  Speaker 5: It's it's kind of interesting where the books got that number.
• 14:41
  Speaker 5: He up to nine and a half and now against
• 14:44
  Speaker 5: an Eagles team that to me is better on paper.
• 14:46
  Speaker 5: They're healthy defensively, they can have all the guys offensively,
• 14:50
  Speaker 5: They're only a six point.
• 14:51
  Speaker 3: Favorite against this Washington team.
• 14:53
  Speaker 5: So, I mean, me and Chat were talking about how
• 14:54
  Speaker 5: this is an inflated line for this Washington team, that
• 14:58
  Speaker 5: this has moved too much. That's what we're talking because
• 15:00
  Speaker 5: I had a lot of people ask about that. Why
• 15:02
  Speaker 5: we think this is peak value for Washington. Just breaking
• 15:05
  Speaker 5: it down very simple. You can see how much respect
• 15:07
  Speaker 5: the books giving them and vice versa. They're in a
• 15:10
  Speaker 5: happy position to be because right now, like I said,
• 15:13
  Speaker 5: they need the Eagles. All this money is pouring in
• 15:15
  Speaker 5: on Washington and you know, me and Chat, honestly, Chat,
• 15:19
  Speaker 5: I thought this would be six and a half seven
• 15:21
  Speaker 5: when we came on today's show, So you know the
• 15:24
  Speaker 5: fact that at night, like I've been checking it, there
• 15:26
  Speaker 5: is you see the resistance from professional betters, Like a
• 15:29
  Speaker 5: couple of books two hit six and a half quickly
• 15:32
  Speaker 5: bumped down to six. So it's clear that there is
• 15:35
  Speaker 5: some really smart money keeping this number down. And I
• 15:38
  Speaker 5: think it does come back to the hurts injury to me, Like,
• 15:40
  Speaker 5: that's why I get why the profession was saying that,
• 15:42
  Speaker 5: because on one side, you have a quarterback that is
• 15:45
  Speaker 5: playing at a high level and he is fully healthy.
• 15:47
  Speaker 5: On the flip side, you have a quarterback that the
• 15:49
  Speaker 5: professionals and public have questions about and he's got a
• 15:53
  Speaker 5: bad knee. So that to me makes sense about the
• 15:55
  Speaker 5: resistance on this number. But like I just said to me,
• 15:58
  Speaker 5: that's another reason for me and you, I feel we're
• 16:00
  Speaker 5: getting great value on this line where it's just too
• 16:02
  Speaker 5: much hype, too much love for a Washington team that
• 16:05
  Speaker 5: has a couple little bit of a fluky fluky wins here.
• 16:07
  Speaker 5: Now they're being praised as one of the best teams
• 16:09
  Speaker 5: in the NFL.
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: Also, going outside, it's it's just a different game for
• 16:15
  Speaker 1: everybody when you're playing outside. And I'm not saying the
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: Commanders can't handle weather, they're an out to our team.
• 16:21
  Speaker 1: But when you're playing indoors, you go forward on fourth
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: downs and you're going against a team that is playing
• 16:29
  Speaker 1: basically second and third stringers across the board defensively, and
• 16:33
  Speaker 1: you force some turnovers early in the game. You're just
• 16:38
  Speaker 1: playing from a different point of view, a different perspective.
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: This Philadelphia team, to me, I thought.
• 16:44
  Speaker 2: You nailed it. It's not really.
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: About Jalen Hurts. It's about the offensive line and the
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: defensive line. And again we talked about this on Tuesday,
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: Sam Cosmy not playing it's kind of a big deal
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: because the strength of this Philly defense is what they
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: can do within the interior of the defensive line. Jalen
• 17:07
  Speaker 1: Carter is amazing. He is like he's Aaron Donald esque
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: this year in his ability to control a game and
• 17:15
  Speaker 1: impact the game as an interior defensive lineman. So like
• 17:22
  Speaker 1: him coming up to God against Jadon Daniels is going
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: to be really really daunting. Especially in this kind of scenario.
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: You gotta like, yeah, you can't. You can't take that
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: factor away.
• 17:36
  Speaker 5: And we also talked about the Eagles have not played
• 17:40
  Speaker 5: their game yet, like they have not played a sound
• 17:42
  Speaker 5: perfect game like we were used to when they were
• 17:44
  Speaker 5: rolling mid season. On the flip side, Washington's coming off,
• 17:47
  Speaker 5: in my opinion, their best game of the season. Like
• 17:49
  Speaker 5: going back and watching that game, every little thing they
• 17:52
  Speaker 5: did kind of broke their way.
• 17:53
  Speaker 3: The only really dumb mistake they made.
• 17:55
  Speaker 5: Was that weird Mariota pitching trying to pitch the ball back.
• 17:58
  Speaker 5: And yeah, this is why I do give respect to
• 18:00
  Speaker 5: Dan Quinn. He went to Kingsbury whoever you went and
• 18:03
  Speaker 5: talked to me. He just said, we're not taking the
• 18:06
  Speaker 5: ball out of our best player's hand and losing this
• 18:08
  Speaker 5: game again. Like from now on, a fourth down no more. Bullshit,
• 18:11
  Speaker 5: dumb gimmick plays. We're gonna give the ball to Daniel's
• 18:14
  Speaker 5: only because that was the type of play where you're
• 18:16
  Speaker 5: just like, you're overthinking at Washington, what are you doing
• 18:18
  Speaker 5: in this type of big moment? And you know, the
• 18:21
  Speaker 5: rest of that game so sound, and you know, like
• 18:24
  Speaker 5: you just said, this Eagles game is outdoors. I have
• 18:29
  Speaker 5: moved to the over. Originally I like the under in
• 18:31
  Speaker 5: this matchup. I have flipped to the over, and just
• 18:34
  Speaker 5: because the number has moved too much and I basically
• 18:36
  Speaker 5: have this total forty eight and a half, so it's
• 18:38
  Speaker 5: only a point difference. Right right now is forty seven
• 18:40
  Speaker 5: and a half still showing valley to the over.
• 18:42
  Speaker 3: And it really is all about what we just talked about.
• 18:44
  Speaker 5: The weather now, if you live in the Northeast or
• 18:47
  Speaker 5: just an America in general, we're in a deep freeze
• 18:49
  Speaker 5: right now. It's absolutely awful outside. It's like ten degrees
• 18:53
  Speaker 5: in most places. It's gonna warm up by this week.
• 18:55
  Speaker 5: I don't know if you saw it, chat, it's supposed
• 18:56
  Speaker 5: to be in the mid forties come Sunday. Okay, no rain,
• 19:01
  Speaker 5: mid forties, Like you just said, both these teams are
• 19:03
  Speaker 5: from the same area. They're used to being out in
• 19:05
  Speaker 5: this cold. I don't think it's going to affect the
• 19:07
  Speaker 5: offenses like I did this past week with Eagles. I
• 19:09
  Speaker 5: don't think we'll see as many drops from the Eagles
• 19:11
  Speaker 5: insane from this Washing team. I think they'll be fine
• 19:13
  Speaker 5: playing these elements. But like you just said, the difference
• 19:16
  Speaker 5: will be Washington just played in Florida and then an
• 19:20
  Speaker 5: indoor game against Detroit like, so, this will be the
• 19:22
  Speaker 5: first time they are out.
• 19:23
  Speaker 3: In the cold in the elements in the playoffs, and
• 19:25
  Speaker 3: you know, no.
• 19:27
  Speaker 2: Go ahead, Sorry, Noah, go ahead.
• 19:30
  Speaker 1: The one thing that worries me is that this Eagles
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: team is incredibly reliant on big plays, specifically big plays
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: from Saquon. We saw it in the Rams game, two
• 19:45
  Speaker 1: huge touchdown runs. I was at that Eagles Commander's game
• 19:50
  Speaker 1: in November where they were down most of the game
• 19:54
  Speaker 1: and the only reason they won that game is because
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: there were two long Saquon touchdown runs. That's kind of
• 20:00
  Speaker 1: been the theme of the year. We talked about as
• 20:03
  Speaker 1: rushing prop on Tuesday. It was one hundred and twenty
• 20:05
  Speaker 1: seven and a half by the time we were off
• 20:08
  Speaker 1: the show, and we talked about this on air. It
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: was already at one hundred and twenty nine and a half.
• 20:13
  Speaker 1: One other sports book, very public sports book, High Profile
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: sports Book yesterday announced that Saquon's rushing total at one
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: hundred and thirty is the highest rushing total they've ever
• 20:25
  Speaker 1: had for a prop. Do we worry that this team
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: is too reliant on big plays? Do we think big
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: plays are predictive? And are they something that you can
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: count on or are they totally random and that skews
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: our perception of the Eagles?
• 20:49
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 20:49
  Speaker 5: I would say if you have the number one offensive
• 20:52
  Speaker 5: line of football and all Pro and aj Brown, then
• 20:55
  Speaker 5: all Pro and Saquon probably gonna get big plays.
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: I mean, that's just the honest truth. So I get
• 21:00
  Speaker 3: where you're coming from. Yeah.
• 21:02
  Speaker 5: Ideally, do I want the Eagles to drive the field
• 21:04
  Speaker 5: and then all their red zone trips are touchdowns?
• 21:07
  Speaker 3: That'd be great.
• 21:08
  Speaker 5: But I mean people keep pointing to the fact that, oh,
• 21:10
  Speaker 5: the Eagles haven't been great in the red zone even
• 21:11
  Speaker 5: last week, right, they struggled in the red zone. No,
• 21:15
  Speaker 5: I don't really mind that. I don't worry about that
• 21:17
  Speaker 5: stuff too much. Like big plays can be inconsistent if
• 21:20
  Speaker 5: it's all wide receiver that to me be scary, right
• 21:24
  Speaker 5: if it was the Tyreek Hill type of deal where
• 21:25
  Speaker 5: it's like, well, if we don't have Tyreek Hill downfield,
• 21:28
  Speaker 5: then our offense kind of stalls, right, we need to
• 21:30
  Speaker 5: we rely on those big plays to move the ball downfield.
• 21:33
  Speaker 3: The Eagles aren't that.
• 21:34
  Speaker 5: I mean, they just the reason they have those big
• 21:35
  Speaker 5: plays numbers is because they wear teams out and eventually,
• 21:39
  Speaker 5: like we talked about, Saquon gets these teams in the
• 21:40
  Speaker 5: fourth quarter and that's when he breaks out for those
• 21:42
  Speaker 5: long runs. So you know the stats we gave out
• 21:46
  Speaker 5: on Tuesday about this Washington run defense and how bad
• 21:49
  Speaker 5: they are the second level, that just adds more fuel
• 21:52
  Speaker 5: to the fire of this team going to be hitting
• 21:54
  Speaker 5: big plays.
• 21:54
  Speaker 3: I mean, it lines up for this Eagles team.
• 21:56
  Speaker 5: So I told you my biggest worry here is going
• 21:59
  Speaker 5: to be same thing we had when I was betting
• 22:02
  Speaker 5: Washington against the Lions.
• 22:04
  Speaker 3: It's the fourth down regression.
• 22:06
  Speaker 5: Like it's we're at we're at historical numbers at this
• 22:09
  Speaker 5: point with the fourth down with this Washington team, and
• 22:13
  Speaker 5: it did come to bite us, like even that Bucks game, right,
• 22:15
  Speaker 5: they had a couple failed fourth downs and that Lions game.
• 22:18
  Speaker 5: We just talked about Mariota play. There are opportunities for
• 22:21
  Speaker 5: this Eagles team to get stops. And you know dan Quinn,
• 22:24
  Speaker 5: he's getting tons of praise right now, well deserved if
• 22:27
  Speaker 5: he goes for it on his own thirty five on
• 22:28
  Speaker 5: fourth down, right, say they're down seven in the second
• 22:31
  Speaker 5: quarter and he goes for it.
• 22:32
  Speaker 3: There the Eagle stop them. Now they're up fourteen. Well
• 22:35
  Speaker 3: you look like.
• 22:36
  Speaker 5: An idiot or will just be like, no, this is
• 22:38
  Speaker 5: who this guy's been all season. It's just been working.
• 22:40
  Speaker 5: So that's that's gonna be interesting part here in this game.
• 22:42
  Speaker 5: To me, it's gonna be another game where if Daniels
• 22:45
  Speaker 5: hits these fourth downs, yeah, they can stay in this
• 22:48
  Speaker 5: game easily. I Mean, we all know the track record
• 22:51
  Speaker 5: of you know, divisional opponents keeping games close in the spot.
• 22:53
  Speaker 5: But when you really dive into the numbers, this this
• 22:56
  Speaker 5: would really be an embarrassing loss for the Eagles. Like
• 22:59
  Speaker 5: all honestly, you were getting a rookie quarterback on a
• 23:02
  Speaker 5: team that is basically going to rebuild season. The fact
• 23:06
  Speaker 5: they come into your home stadium and win this playoff
• 23:08
  Speaker 5: game would be shocking just because across the line, like
• 23:12
  Speaker 5: we just talked about the d line matches up incredibly
• 23:14
  Speaker 5: against this O line of Washington Egos offensive line even
• 23:18
  Speaker 5: more so, I mean second level. All of it lines
• 23:21
  Speaker 5: up really well. We give tons of credit though, to Washington.
• 23:23
  Speaker 5: Like Bobby Wagner, he was left for dead. This man's
• 23:26
  Speaker 5: come in and made a huge difference to this team.
• 23:28
  Speaker 5: Zach Ertz, another guy left for dead, has come and
• 23:31
  Speaker 5: made like veteran presidents on this Washington team has been
• 23:33
  Speaker 5: huge and made these few different. So they do have
• 23:35
  Speaker 5: guys who've played in these big games, these big moments.
• 23:37
  Speaker 5: But this is an Eagles team that basically was in
• 23:39
  Speaker 5: a Super Bowl, you know, a year and a half ago.
• 23:41
  Speaker 5: So it's like we've seen time and time again in sports,
• 23:44
  Speaker 5: teams usually have to go through growing pains, and you
• 23:48
  Speaker 5: expect Washington someday they'll.
• 23:50
  Speaker 3: Get to this level.
• 23:50
  Speaker 5: Some day, they won't make a super Bowl. It would
• 23:53
  Speaker 5: be shocking for them to get there this early, like
• 23:55
  Speaker 5: they haven't gone through the pain that almost all teams
• 23:57
  Speaker 5: need to go through to get to that next level.
• 23:59
  Speaker 5: Even the all God we talk about Patrick Mahomes, he
• 24:03
  Speaker 5: needed to lose to Brady at home in that AFC
• 24:05
  Speaker 5: Championship game.
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: Then he needed to lose the Super Bowl.
• 24:07
  Speaker 5: I mean he did win it obviously against fort Niners,
• 24:09
  Speaker 5: but then he need to lose against Brady in the
• 24:10
  Speaker 5: Super Bowl eventually, like these these great quarterbacks all go
• 24:13
  Speaker 5: through it. We think Jane Dams will eventually be one
• 24:16
  Speaker 5: of these greats, but he has not gone through any
• 24:18
  Speaker 5: pain yet.
• 24:18
  Speaker 3: Right, It's all been good. That's why you watch TV.
• 24:21
  Speaker 5: Everyone's just loving this team, hype him up, making him
• 24:23
  Speaker 5: a top five quarterback in this league.
• 24:25
  Speaker 3: I mean, I still can't get over with Chad. There's
• 24:27
  Speaker 3: sixteen to one next year in Super Bowl.
• 24:28
  Speaker 5: Futures, this Commanders team, So it just it's all peaking
• 24:32
  Speaker 5: right now. They're the darling of the NFL. They beat
• 24:35
  Speaker 5: the one seed, a team that you know, people if
• 24:37
  Speaker 5: are unbeatable. And on the flip side of this, the
• 24:39
  Speaker 5: Eagles team, people have not believed them all the way.
• 24:42
  Speaker 5: I mean, you can go through it. People picked the
• 24:44
  Speaker 5: Rams to upset them just last week, like that was
• 24:46
  Speaker 5: a big bet by a lot of people. And you know,
• 24:49
  Speaker 5: when you really got dive into it, Eagles probably should
• 24:51
  Speaker 5: have won against Green Bay by double digits. Should it
• 24:53
  Speaker 5: beat last week by double digits? Right, they just didn't
• 24:56
  Speaker 5: think that things break their way. So it's it's a
• 24:59
  Speaker 5: unique opportunity to have team like the Eagles be underrated
• 25:01
  Speaker 5: even though they've been one of the top three, top
• 25:04
  Speaker 5: four best teams in football all season.
• 25:06
  Speaker 3: So it is a unique position.
• 25:08
  Speaker 5: Like me and Chav talked about this is it feels
• 25:11
  Speaker 5: too easy. That's my fear here, Chad, where it's like,
• 25:13
  Speaker 5: right now, I'm able to get you know, in a teaser,
• 25:15
  Speaker 5: i can get them down just to win this game.
• 25:17
  Speaker 5: And I'm just shocked this has stayed under seven. And
• 25:19
  Speaker 5: I do think it all comes back through the hurts,
• 25:21
  Speaker 5: injury and the public and professional money coming in so
• 25:24
  Speaker 5: heavy on this commander's team where I'm shocked to see
• 25:27
  Speaker 5: how much money is poured in on this team. Like
• 25:29
  Speaker 5: I really do think by the time we do the
• 25:30
  Speaker 5: show it'll be more balanced. It's still heavy towards commanders.
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: Jake Elliott, do your fucking job. The extra points. This
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: line is six, right. We felt the last week it
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: pushed on six because Jake Elliott was missing extra points.
• 25:50
  Speaker 2: Jake Elliott, do your job. It's all we're asking.
• 25:56
  Speaker 1: Simon, did you know that inside man, there are two wolves.
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: One wolf represents darkness and despair, but the other wolf
• 26:09
  Speaker 1: is relaxed and luxuriating in resplendent comfort. Ah, because that
• 26:16
  Speaker 1: wolf is decked out head to paw in the flexible.
• 26:22
  Speaker 2: Breathability of Tommy John.
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: You can only feed one wolf, Simon, So feed that
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: comfortable wolf. The geniuses at Tommy John have mastered the
• 26:34
  Speaker 1: art of comfort. To see what thousands of five star
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: reviewers are raving about. Howell with comfort at a wardrobe
• 26:43
  Speaker 1: filled with Tommy John, Simon, Why will you be wearing
• 26:48
  Speaker 1: more Tommy John in twenty twenty five?
• 26:50
  Speaker 3: Because comfort is king?
• 26:52
  Speaker 2: Ah, it's my wolf howl.
• 27:01
  Speaker 1: Right now, you can shop Tommy John dot com slash
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: favorites and get you twenty fiers off your first order.
• 27:06
  Speaker 1: Save Tommy John, save twenty five percent of Tommy John
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: dot com slash favorites. That's Tommy John dot com slash favorites.
• 27:15
  Speaker 1: I went, I went off script on Matt's read there.
• 27:19
  Speaker 1: I hope he's okay with it. What did you think
• 27:21
  Speaker 1: of my howl?
• 27:23
  Speaker 3: I don't know what you're going for there? That was
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: definitely a wolf hel though. Oh all right?
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: Buffalo, Kansas City, Kansas City minus one and a half.
• 27:33
  Speaker 1: The totals forty seven and a half. This was Simon says,
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs on the Money line is our exec decision
• 27:41
  Speaker 1: taken a minute to get some traction. It's it's moving
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: to two in some spots. You know, we'll have Matt
• 27:47
  Speaker 1: Mitchell come on if he can promise to, you know,
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: keep it, keep it tight.
• 27:52
  Speaker 2: We're trying to keep the.
• 27:53
  Speaker 1: Podcast less than four hours today because he came on
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: before the show.
• 28:00
  Speaker 2: I think this is why he's a little hot today,
• 28:02
  Speaker 2: because he.
• 28:02
  Speaker 1: Said he bet an inordinate amount of money, an obscene
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: amount of money.
• 28:07
  Speaker 2: On the Buffalo Bills. We obviously are both on the
• 28:11
  Speaker 2: Chiefs here.
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: I would like Matt Mitchell to come on as the
• 28:16
  Speaker 1: resident Bills obsessive.
• 28:19
  Speaker 2: He's an excellent better.
• 28:20
  Speaker 1: He's not just a mediocre podcast producer and a Bill's freak.
• 28:24
  Speaker 1: He's an excellent better. So, Matt, you want to explain
• 28:28
  Speaker 1: yourself while you're going against the hosts of the show.
• 28:31
  Speaker 6: WHI Chad, it's nice to be on. I hope you're well.
• 28:34
  Speaker 6: I appreciate all the listeners and the outpouring of support
• 28:37
  Speaker 6: following your incoherent and asinine breakdown of your Chiefs Love
• 28:43
  Speaker 6: last episode. I've realized that since the infamous thirteen seconds
• 28:50
  Speaker 6: game three years ago. I have done a very good
• 28:53
  Speaker 6: job of locking my heart away and developing a thick
• 28:58
  Speaker 6: candy shell so that I'm not as absolutely crushed by
• 29:02
  Speaker 6: a loss in the playoffs as I was after that game,
• 29:06
  Speaker 6: so that the Bengals loss in the playoffs meant very little. Also,
• 29:09
  Speaker 6: they just lost regular style, which is what I always
• 29:11
  Speaker 6: ask of them. Even last week, I felt more relief
• 29:16
  Speaker 6: than joy in a victory that was very hard fought,
• 29:19
  Speaker 6: in one that I was consumed with dread leading up
• 29:21
  Speaker 6: to it. And I'm realizing, Chad, that I'm not able
• 29:24
  Speaker 6: to hit those those the high highs, the true mania
• 29:31
  Speaker 6: of an incredible victory, because I've been holding back and
• 29:34
  Speaker 6: shielding myself and the time has finally come. I used
• 29:38
  Speaker 6: to to dance like everyone's watching and love like I'll
• 29:41
  Speaker 6: always get hurt, But now I'm ready. I'm ready to
• 29:44
  Speaker 6: get hurt, and I'm going to go into this game
• 29:47
  Speaker 6: filled with optimism and excitement ruthlessness that the Bills will
• 29:52
  Speaker 6: leave Kansas City victorious. And I'm putting my money where
• 29:56
  Speaker 6: my mouth is, and I'm disgusted with myself that I'd
• 29:59
  Speaker 6: be saying this out loud to so many people, But
• 30:02
  Speaker 6: I'm in. I'm fucking all in. I've heard enough. It's
• 30:05
  Speaker 6: time for men of action.
• 30:07
  Speaker 3: To do just that. So go Bills.
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: That is a end of a rom com worthy soliloquy
• 30:15
  Speaker 1: about your love and your willingness to expose yourself and
• 30:21
  Speaker 1: be vulnerable this weekend. I believe it was Bob Scucci
• 30:26
  Speaker 1: who once said, when all hope is gone, all that's
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: left is relief. Yeah, it might be something you were
• 30:34
  Speaker 1: feeling at some point, and I'm glad that you are
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: getting back to finding euphoria enjoy as a sports fan.
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: My Kansas City Chiefs take which I know what you're
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: referring to, and listeners know what you're referring to, which
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: you went after me for when I couldn't defend myself.
• 30:54
  Speaker 1: You dropped it into the podcast on Tuesday. Is I'm
• 30:57
  Speaker 1: rooting for history. I'm not saying I'm rooting for the
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: thing that's never happened, which is to beat the Buffalo Bills,
• 31:03
  Speaker 1: because the Buffalo Bills get beaten by everybody. My point was,
• 31:07
  Speaker 1: I want to see the three pet That's what I'm
• 31:10
  Speaker 1: rooting for. Matt Mitchell. I'm rooting for historical dominance of
• 31:15
  Speaker 1: dynastic proportions.
• 31:17
  Speaker 2: The fucking Buffalo.
• 31:18
  Speaker 6: Bills have been playing fucking football for longer than there's
• 31:22
  Speaker 6: been a Super Bowl, and they've have not won a
• 31:25
  Speaker 6: Super Bowl.
• 31:26
  Speaker 3: That is pretty goddamn historic.
• 31:27
  Speaker 6: All you gotta say, Chad, all you gotta do is
• 31:29
  Speaker 6: go into that fucking microphone and say, you know what,
• 31:33
  Speaker 6: I'm rooting for the team that never loses, to not lose.
• 31:38
  Speaker 6: I'm rooting for the team with the better coach. I'm
• 31:40
  Speaker 6: rooting for the best quarterback to beat the second best quarterback.
• 31:42
  Speaker 6: I'm rooting for the team that is favored to win
• 31:45
  Speaker 6: the game at home.
• 31:46
  Speaker 1: Here, I'm rooting for the team that has the opportunity
• 31:51
  Speaker 1: to win three straight Super Bowls. I'm rooting for the
• 31:54
  Speaker 1: team that has a quarterback that has the opportunity to
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: set standards that have never before been seen in the
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: history of the NFL, which has been around longer than
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: the Buffalo fucking Bills. So that's what I'm rooting for.
• 32:09
  Speaker 1: The See, I have the bigger picture, I think, much
• 32:12
  Speaker 1: bigger than you do, Matt. I'm not thinking myopically. I'm
• 32:15
  Speaker 1: not thinking, Oh, how does this all impact the tiny,
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: cute little paris of Western New York franchise Buffalo Bills.
• 32:23
  Speaker 1: I'm thinking, how does this impact all of fandom? How
• 32:27
  Speaker 1: does this impact sports history? Where does this put Patrick
• 32:31
  Speaker 1: Mahomes in the legendary status of the greatest athletes and
• 32:36
  Speaker 1: achievers who have ever lived. I'm not thinking, Oh, does
• 32:41
  Speaker 1: the team that always wins?
• 32:42
  Speaker 2: Are they going to win? That's not how I'm thinking
• 32:44
  Speaker 2: about it.
• 32:45
  Speaker 4: Chad.
• 32:45
  Speaker 6: Okay, listeners, I had to do a visualization exercise on Sunday.
• 32:48
  Speaker 6: I want you to do another one again. Unless you're driving,
• 32:51
  Speaker 6: keep your eyes open. Unless you're driving, close your eyes.
• 32:53
  Speaker 6: I want you to picture Chadnleman walking into a beautiful,
• 32:57
  Speaker 6: glittering casino. He's walking through the casino. He's going to
• 33:02
  Speaker 6: the high roller room. He's walking through it. He's saying, no, no,
• 33:06
  Speaker 6: you know what, I need to go to the to
• 33:08
  Speaker 6: the lowest limits. I want to see the biggest losers.
• 33:10
  Speaker 6: I want to join them. He goes over to the
• 33:11
  Speaker 6: biggest losers shoe a blackjack and he sits down and
• 33:15
  Speaker 6: they say how much how much do you want? He says, oh,
• 33:19
  Speaker 6: no chips for me. I'm here rooting for the dealer.
• 33:22
  Speaker 6: And he has a little pennant that says go casino.
• 33:25
  Speaker 6: That's what you're that's the argument you are making, go
• 33:28
  Speaker 6: house money.
• 33:29
  Speaker 1: Matt and I have been at each other all morning
• 33:31
  Speaker 1: because I asked a simple question in one of our
• 33:34
  Speaker 1: slack channels. Simon, We're on the Chiefs, Go Chiefs. We
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: love the Chiefs. Why am I worried about the Chiefs?
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: If we still have a producer?
• 33:45
  Speaker 5: You got to cut that last thirty minutes unbelievable back
• 33:49
  Speaker 5: and forth by Chat and Matt and Mitchell.
• 33:51
  Speaker 3: Holy shit. Yeah.
• 33:53
  Speaker 5: My only question in Matt Mitchell is if you know
• 33:55
  Speaker 5: what you're doing here. You're supposed to bet the Chiefs
• 33:58
  Speaker 5: so you can actually win money when your team loses,
• 34:00
  Speaker 5: rather than you lose money and you are depressed for
• 34:03
  Speaker 5: a year when your team.
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: Loses and nobody in your beautiful Milwaukee neighborhood gets ice cream.
• 34:09
  Speaker 3: Jus, you have no money left.
• 34:10
  Speaker 6: Right Imagine one guy rooting for the fucking casino and
• 34:13
  Speaker 6: another guy with the most cowardly, fucking approach in history.
• 34:17
  Speaker 6: That's where we have this drop, which I'll play right now.
• 34:20
  Speaker 2: Simon Hunter, professional coward.
• 34:24
  Speaker 6: I would never hedge emotionally or otherwise, but I wish
• 34:27
  Speaker 6: you the best of luck.
• 34:28
  Speaker 3: No, I'm smart.
• 34:29
  Speaker 5: I actually bet on my favorite team in August, unlike
• 34:31
  Speaker 5: Matt Mitchell here who bets on his favorite team.
• 34:34
  Speaker 3: Beat you a lot.
• 34:34
  Speaker 2: Now, this is great.
• 34:37
  Speaker 5: Yeah, I don't sleep, I don't need I do nothing
• 34:40
  Speaker 5: to think of you, Kansas City Chiefs.
• 34:42
  Speaker 3: I just can't.
• 34:42
  Speaker 5: I keep looking for ways to fade this Chiefs team
• 34:45
  Speaker 5: chat and we're here. We can't do There's no reason
• 34:48
  Speaker 5: not to bet this number. It's low. It's a great
• 34:50
  Speaker 5: matchup for them, and we talked about this Bill's team.
• 34:54
  Speaker 5: It's been an incredible season. This is a team that
• 34:56
  Speaker 5: had thirty million dead calf for Stefan Dicks. It's seventy
• 35:00
  Speaker 5: million in dead cap overall on this roster this season.
• 35:03
  Speaker 3: People, that's fucking insane.
• 35:05
  Speaker 5: They're literally paying seventy million to the guys who are
• 35:07
  Speaker 5: arming on this roster and they are in the finals,
• 35:09
  Speaker 5: the AFC Finals. It's I can't believe it. So this
• 35:12
  Speaker 5: is a team that's overachieved all because they have the
• 35:15
  Speaker 5: mutant that is Josh Allen, the greatest quarterbacks to play
• 35:18
  Speaker 5: this game. Can you get over the hump, Chad? That's
• 35:20
  Speaker 5: what everyone's betting on them. The public has the same
• 35:22
  Speaker 5: exact view as Matt Mitchell, like, they're coming in heavy
• 35:25
  Speaker 5: on this Bills team, not because they're sick of the Chiefs,
• 35:28
  Speaker 5: but they think this is the destiny, this is the
• 35:30
  Speaker 5: year of Josh Allen, and they're betting them hard. I
• 35:33
  Speaker 5: mean even in the action app I'm looking at right now,
• 35:36
  Speaker 5: seventy percent of the bets, same percent.
• 35:38
  Speaker 3: Of the money. Right now.
• 35:38
  Speaker 5: We're on the Buffalo Bills on the road in Kansas City.
• 35:42
  Speaker 5: This is a team that was perfect at home, but
• 35:45
  Speaker 5: they struggled on the road this season. And the struggle
• 35:48
  Speaker 5: on the road was their defense. It wasn't once again,
• 35:50
  Speaker 5: wasn't Josh Allen was the defense. So yeah, it's it's
• 35:55
  Speaker 5: interesting that people are so confidently betting a bad number
• 35:57
  Speaker 5: on this Bills team, where it's like this should be
• 35:59
  Speaker 5: two and a have three. They're happy to line up
• 36:02
  Speaker 5: and take a bad number one and a half or two.
• 36:04
  Speaker 5: So yeah, like I said, bookmakers are happy. I'm extremely happy.
• 36:08
  Speaker 5: It's a rare position to be in chat. We're basically
• 36:10
  Speaker 5: on a Chiefs team that the public is doubting, and
• 36:13
  Speaker 5: it's the exact scenario that happened last year. The Chiefs,
• 36:17
  Speaker 5: people forget, were a five or four point dog at
• 36:20
  Speaker 5: the Ravens last year, they got up to five and
• 36:22
  Speaker 5: a half before kickoff, five and a half dog. No
• 36:25
  Speaker 5: one was betting the Chiefs that line was running up.
• 36:28
  Speaker 5: Even the actual happen. Believe it was less than twenty
• 36:30
  Speaker 5: percent of the bet twenty percent money on the Chiefs
• 36:31
  Speaker 5: in that exact spot. They rolled that Ravens team. And
• 36:35
  Speaker 5: that's that's literally what this exact scenary is playing out
• 36:37
  Speaker 5: right here. People are doubting, not believing the Chiefs team,
• 36:40
  Speaker 5: betting the other side. And yeah, you can wave your
• 36:42
  Speaker 5: hands and try to act like no one believes in
• 36:45
  Speaker 5: us if you're the Bills people do, that's just not true.
• 36:48
  Speaker 5: You guys are the darling favor right now of the league,
• 36:50
  Speaker 5: just like the Commanders. So I love our position that
• 36:53
  Speaker 5: we're in. The Chiefs to me or the better team
• 36:55
  Speaker 5: across the board in every position except the strongest part
• 36:58
  Speaker 5: of this Bills team obviously is on that offensive line,
• 37:01
  Speaker 5: and that to me is our only fear here, Chad.
• 37:03
  Speaker 5: If the Chiefs can't stop the run, we're done here.
• 37:06
  Speaker 5: Because the Bills have a vault. They're a different team
• 37:08
  Speaker 5: now where they play smart, they don't turn over. If
• 37:10
  Speaker 5: we can get a lead with this Chiefs team have
• 37:13
  Speaker 5: to make Josh Allen drop back a ton of throw
• 37:15
  Speaker 5: the ball a lot. That to me is how the
• 37:17
  Speaker 5: Chiefs can come out on top of this one because
• 37:19
  Speaker 5: we know the weakness of this Bills team.
• 37:20
  Speaker 3: They don't have.
• 37:21
  Speaker 5: Receivers, like they got rid of their two top dogs,
• 37:23
  Speaker 5: and he's just thrown in nameless guys, right, I mean
• 37:25
  Speaker 5: Amari Cooper who they traded for. He's been non existent
• 37:28
  Speaker 5: since they got them. Like this just it's not great.
• 37:31
  Speaker 5: And you know, like I said, incredible run by this
• 37:35
  Speaker 5: this Bills team, but they've run into a juggernaut that's
• 37:39
  Speaker 5: not going to lose this game. Like the Ravens kind
• 37:41
  Speaker 5: of lost that game last week. Let's let's be honest here,
• 37:43
  Speaker 5: the Ravens beat themselves. I'd be shocked if the Chiefs
• 37:46
  Speaker 5: beat themselves in this matchup at home. And we've seen
• 37:49
  Speaker 5: the stats from Evan when it's cold below foy degrees
• 37:52
  Speaker 5: in arrowhead in the playoffs, this is when you want
• 37:55
  Speaker 5: to back Mahomes. He just lives up to these moments
• 37:57
  Speaker 5: in the exact spots. So yeah, I really can't believe
• 38:00
  Speaker 5: we're only getting We're getting minus one and a half
• 38:02
  Speaker 5: with the Chiefs at home in the spot and no
• 38:04
  Speaker 5: one's betting them. It's it really is shocking right now,
• 38:06
  Speaker 5: look into that metric and seeing that we are on
• 38:09
  Speaker 5: the team that no one believes in and their home favorite.
• 38:11
  Speaker 5: So yeah, obvious, you can tell you Jack feeling pretty
• 38:13
  Speaker 5: confident about this Chief side.
• 38:16
  Speaker 1: There is a better according to Patrick Everson, who placed
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: a one point three million dollar bet on the Chiefs
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: to win the game. Just on the money line, I'll
• 38:30
  Speaker 1: reiterate Patrick Mahomes in November, December, January, when it's forty
• 38:36
  Speaker 1: degrees or less, twenty three and two straight up.
• 38:40
  Speaker 2: He's won twenty in a row.
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: His last loss was to Tom Brady in two thousand
• 38:46
  Speaker 1: and nineteen. The only fear here is Josh Allen, and
• 38:53
  Speaker 1: you know he's so good at avoiding sacks and the
• 38:57
  Speaker 1: Chiefs pressure as much as George Carloft has been amazing
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: on the edge recently, their pressure is Chris Jones on
• 39:04
  Speaker 1: the inside unless he is moving himself to the edges.
• 39:07
  Speaker 1: But when Josh Allen gets flushed, he is very hard
• 39:12
  Speaker 1: to sack, like so difficult to put into plays behind
• 39:17
  Speaker 1: the sticks.
• 39:18
  Speaker 2: Right.
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: That to me is like the biggest fears every time
• 39:21
  Speaker 1: he rolls out, I get a little nervous when I'm
• 39:25
  Speaker 1: betting against Josh Allen.
• 39:28
  Speaker 2: But I think to your.
• 39:29
  Speaker 1: Point, teams are not the same when they play the
• 39:33
  Speaker 1: Chiefs in the playoffs that they are throughout the year
• 39:36
  Speaker 1: because they're not thinking, oh, I have many many series
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: in which to make up for any mistakes. Every series
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: is so critical. You get tighter when you think you
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: can't make a mistake, and everyone believes they cannot make
• 39:51
  Speaker 1: a mistake against Patrick Mahomes in the playoffs. He's that magical,
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: he's that awesome. I think that has a real impact
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: in these games that just doesn't get accounted for in
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: the spread.
• 40:05
  Speaker 2: I don't know if you feel the same way I do.
• 40:07
  Speaker 5: And I also think that's some of the reason why
• 40:08
  Speaker 5: I love the under here, where it's like both these
• 40:11
  Speaker 5: teams are going to play super slow and conservative and
• 40:14
  Speaker 5: just eat the clock up because they have the same
• 40:15
  Speaker 5: view we have. Keep the offense off the field like that.
• 40:18
  Speaker 5: That's how you're gonna win this game. Right now, let
• 40:20
  Speaker 5: the other team get in their rhythm. So coming into it,
• 40:22
  Speaker 5: I think both game plans are gonna be run heavy,
• 40:24
  Speaker 5: and you know, we talk a little bit about Matt Milano.
• 40:28
  Speaker 5: That's a big X factor for this Bill's defense. I
• 40:31
  Speaker 5: know that yesterday he was limited with a hamstring, so
• 40:35
  Speaker 5: you know, great that it's not a knee. Terrible that
• 40:37
  Speaker 5: it's a hamstring, Like, you don't want a guy to
• 40:39
  Speaker 5: have hamstring issues heading into a game that, like you
• 40:42
  Speaker 5: just said, it's gonna be below forty degrees. That's not ideal,
• 40:45
  Speaker 5: especially for such an important defender. That's you know, an
• 40:48
  Speaker 5: older guy Matt Milano in this spot. So yeah, that's
• 40:53
  Speaker 5: it's I was really trying to be on the Bills, honestly,
• 40:56
  Speaker 5: Jack coming into it, because I just I love this
• 40:58
  Speaker 5: team and their story.
• 40:59
  Speaker 3: But to me, it was all about the number, and
• 41:02
  Speaker 3: it never got to where I.
• 41:03
  Speaker 5: Felt comfortable that this would be a good Bills line
• 41:05
  Speaker 5: to bet, Like, it never got to two and a
• 41:07
  Speaker 5: half three.
• 41:07
  Speaker 3: And it's what we just talked about.
• 41:09
  Speaker 5: They are beloved right now by the public and there's
• 41:12
  Speaker 5: plenty of smart professional money out there coming to heavy
• 41:14
  Speaker 5: on them as well. So I'm not trying to have
• 41:17
  Speaker 5: people ever think this year you're getting very unique opportunity.
• 41:19
  Speaker 5: You have two home favorites that the public doesn't really
• 41:22
  Speaker 5: believe in, and you're getting a good number on both
• 41:24
  Speaker 5: of them.
• 41:24
  Speaker 3: So I like this position we're in.
• 41:27
  Speaker 5: It doesn't feel like it was you know in other
• 41:30
  Speaker 5: years where everyone's just hammering these number one and number
• 41:32
  Speaker 5: two seeds. This is a unique season where people don't
• 41:35
  Speaker 5: believe in this one or two seed. People believe in
• 41:37
  Speaker 5: the road dogs, and the money you can follow it.
• 41:41
  Speaker 5: It says that they believe in them. So it's gonna
• 41:43
  Speaker 5: be interesting by game time. See if it comes on
• 41:45
  Speaker 5: the other side. If you know, the professional public money
• 41:48
  Speaker 5: does show up on the Chiefs and the Eagles, because
• 41:49
  Speaker 5: right now, this early money, it is, without a doubt,
• 41:52
  Speaker 5: all these road dogs.
• 41:55
  Speaker 1: So interesting how people's perceptions can be changed by how
• 42:01
  Speaker 1: brilliant just the quarterbacks are. Right, Josh Allen and Jaden
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: Daniels have been much better players this year than Patrick
• 42:10
  Speaker 1: Mahomes and Jalen Hurts, and it has put us in
• 42:12
  Speaker 1: a position. You're one hundred percent right. I don't think
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: we've ever had an experience where we both like a
• 42:19
  Speaker 1: home favorite that are the higher seeds that none of
• 42:23
  Speaker 1: the public wants to bet. It's it's such a it's
• 42:29
  Speaker 1: a different position for us entirely. But like you said,
• 42:32
  Speaker 1: we're all over the Eagles. We're all over the Chiefs.
• 42:37
  Speaker 1: Really important stuff. By the way, one more injury report.
• 42:41
  Speaker 1: Taylor Rapp safety did not practice for the Bills yesterday.
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: He's got that hip injury that could be significant. You
• 42:49
  Speaker 1: mentioned Milano. He was limited in practice. We saw what
• 42:52
  Speaker 1: a difference he made for the Bills against the Ravens
• 42:55
  Speaker 1: last week. Christian Benford, the cornerback, had a concussion last week,
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: was in practice, which could be a good sign because
• 43:02
  Speaker 1: it means he got back on the field. It's one
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: of the first steps you have to make to get
• 43:05
  Speaker 1: through the concussion protocol. So those are the latest updates.
• 43:09
  Speaker 1: No real injuries of note for the Chiefs. Okay to
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: Hedge or not to Hedge. So I got these questions
• 43:15
  Speaker 1: on Twitter before the season began. We each gave out
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: future bets we liked, including super Bowl matchups. Mine was
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: amongst many Chiefs versus Eagles in the Super Bowl. Every
• 43:29
  Speaker 1: year I do a matchup round robin in which I
• 43:31
  Speaker 1: bet the teams whose preseason.
• 43:33
  Speaker 2: Super Bowl odds are twelve to one or shorter.
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: It's a bet that Evan tipped me off to in
• 43:37
  Speaker 1: his preseason story last year. Heading into last year, it
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: was nine of ten matchups had been from teams that
• 43:46
  Speaker 1: had odds of twelve to win or shorter. Last year
• 43:49
  Speaker 1: it happened again. The Chiefs and Eagles were both in
• 43:52
  Speaker 1: this group. Their odds to meet in the Super Bowl preseason,
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: we're twenty eight to one. I bet that I have
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: that existing before we go to Simons u whose bet
• 44:01
  Speaker 1: is even more exciting because people like to say, no,
• 44:05
  Speaker 1: you didn't really do that, Gifford.
• 44:07
  Speaker 2: Let's go to the video evidence.
• 44:11
  Speaker 5: My finals, Chiefs winning over the Eagles once again in
• 44:15
  Speaker 5: the Super Bowl.
• 44:16
  Speaker 3: If to win three straight and.
• 44:17
  Speaker 5: You can get that right now at fifty five to
• 44:19
  Speaker 5: one on bet three sixty five Chiefs beating the Eagles
• 44:22
  Speaker 5: in the Super Bowl, I.
• 44:23
  Speaker 3: Just think it's there.
• 44:24
  Speaker 5: They're both going to be the one seeds if they're
• 44:27
  Speaker 5: both at home. Like if the Lines got to come
• 44:30
  Speaker 5: to Philadelphia in mid January, if Purdy has to come
• 44:33
  Speaker 5: to Philadelphia in mid January, I just think the Eagles
• 44:36
  Speaker 5: should win that game. The only hesitation I just talked
• 44:38
  Speaker 5: about is the Rams, Like I think of all the
• 44:40
  Speaker 5: guys that wouldn't be phased about that kind of environment
• 44:43
  Speaker 5: is Stafford. But yeah, I have the Eagles winning it.
• 44:46
  Speaker 5: Then versus the Chiefs, the Chiefs winning the Eagles in
• 44:48
  Speaker 5: the Super Bowl. It's just Chad knows, I love bett
• 44:51
  Speaker 5: on history. I want to be part of history. It's
• 44:53
  Speaker 5: just it's one of my favorite things, and this is
• 44:55
  Speaker 5: the team to do it. Like, It's just the Super
• 44:58
  Speaker 5: Bowl team always gets a little weaker. I mean we've
• 45:00
  Speaker 5: seen it right now with the forty nine ers, like
• 45:01
  Speaker 5: all that drama they're having to deal with. Yeah, yeah,
• 45:03
  Speaker 5: the Chiefs just aren't that team. And they don't they
• 45:05
  Speaker 5: don't lose any coordinators. Like, it's just all there. So
• 45:08
  Speaker 5: the boring bet I know, but Chiefs one of the
• 45:11
  Speaker 5: Super Bowl. That's where I'm going.
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: Chad, all right, it's so fun to go back and
• 45:16
  Speaker 1: listen to that because you were spot on about so
• 45:19
  Speaker 1: many things, not just the Chiefs like and their opportunity,
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: but the way you nailed the Eagles after they had
• 45:26
  Speaker 1: come off a down year, talking about the Rams having
• 45:28
  Speaker 1: to go to Philly being off the Niners.
• 45:31
  Speaker 2: Brilliant, brilliant stuff. We've all seen your ticket.
• 45:34
  Speaker 1: We know it is a significant, significant amount of money.
• 45:37
  Speaker 1: And that's just one ticket you have. I know you've
• 45:41
  Speaker 1: got several on this particular matchup.
• 45:44
  Speaker 2: Chiefs beating the Eagles.
• 45:47
  Speaker 1: A couple of our listeners sent me notes. I'm going
• 45:51
  Speaker 1: to read the excerpts of one because it is representative
• 45:54
  Speaker 1: of everything I'm currently sitting on a Super Bowl futures
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: Chiefs beating Eagles and Eagles beating Chiefs. Each one unit
• 46:00
  Speaker 1: bets Chiefs win, pays out fifty six units. As you noted, Simon,
• 46:05
  Speaker 1: we headed at fifty five to one, Eagles pays out
• 46:08
  Speaker 1: sixty seven. Book is offering a cash out of twenty
• 46:12
  Speaker 1: point five units. I've thought about letting the Eagles game
• 46:16
  Speaker 1: ride and if they win, betting twenty eight units on
• 46:19
  Speaker 1: the bills to cover. Also have considered cashing. What strategies
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: would you guys consider? So basically that covers everything, right,
• 46:27
  Speaker 1: That covers a cash out. You and I and Evan
• 46:29
  Speaker 1: talked a little bit about this on Tuesday after the show,
• 46:33
  Speaker 1: talking about waiting to see what happens in the first
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: game and if the Eagles win, hedging the second game,
• 46:39
  Speaker 1: how will you be handling any hedging this weekend?
• 46:44
  Speaker 5: Yeah, so off the top, everyone should know every person
• 46:47
  Speaker 5: is unique and as their own life going on with
• 46:50
  Speaker 5: your own shit going on, your own life, and you
• 46:51
  Speaker 5: need to plan accordingly with these type of bets. If
• 46:54
  Speaker 5: you are in that position that you need this fucking money.
• 46:57
  Speaker 5: If you need this money, cash it out. Go ahead,
• 47:00
  Speaker 5: who cares cash it out? Take that money you can.
• 47:03
  Speaker 5: You made a great bet. The books are begging you
• 47:05
  Speaker 5: to take their money because they are terrified that you're
• 47:08
  Speaker 5: going to hit this bet and they don't want to
• 47:10
  Speaker 5: pay it out. So if you do need the money,
• 47:12
  Speaker 5: cash it out. If you're building a bank roll and
• 47:15
  Speaker 5: you don't have any money to hedge it.
• 47:16
  Speaker 3: You're in that type of spot, cash it out. There's
• 47:18
  Speaker 3: nothing wrong with that. Now, someone like me, there is
• 47:22
  Speaker 3: no reason to cash out. Like I'm of course gonna
• 47:24
  Speaker 3: let this ride.
• 47:25
  Speaker 5: And it's from the perspective of it's a bet I trusted,
• 47:29
  Speaker 5: and it basically came all to exactly what I predicted.
• 47:32
  Speaker 5: These two teams would be at home in this position
• 47:34
  Speaker 5: to win. The math is telling you this is a
• 47:36
  Speaker 5: good spot to be in, and I'm going to a
• 47:39
  Speaker 5: unique spot where I really only bet on these two
• 47:42
  Speaker 5: teams for Super Bowl futures like I had. I think
• 47:46
  Speaker 5: I had two different bets on the Rams from when
• 47:48
  Speaker 5: I thought it was really stupid, but I basically thought
• 47:51
  Speaker 5: they were open up cap space to have a big signing.
• 47:54
  Speaker 5: They were actually paying out Aaron Donald to retire, So
• 47:56
  Speaker 5: that was a futures bet I did make on the Rams.
• 47:59
  Speaker 5: But other than that, my two heaviest bets for what
• 48:01
  Speaker 5: people just are in the clip where basically the Chiefs
• 48:03
  Speaker 5: and the Eagles. And now I'm in the spot where
• 48:06
  Speaker 5: could I hedge on the Commanders. Yes, I think Commanders
• 48:08
  Speaker 5: right now are plus seven hundred to make the Super Bowl.
• 48:11
  Speaker 5: But I wouldn't do that, especially if you're anyone.
• 48:13
  Speaker 3: Else out there. This is not the spot to hedge.
• 48:15
  Speaker 5: I think this guy talking about head you in the
• 48:17
  Speaker 5: next game, that's the spot. Like, if you want to
• 48:19
  Speaker 5: take a position to hedge out, do that on the Bills.
• 48:22
  Speaker 5: You can either do it on their Super Bowl future.
• 48:25
  Speaker 5: You can either do it taking their number.
• 48:28
  Speaker 3: You could. I mean, if you're going really balls, you
• 48:30
  Speaker 3: throw them in a seven and a half up to
• 48:31
  Speaker 3: seven and a half, put them with the Eagles.
• 48:33
  Speaker 5: Take the Eagles down to a pick because again it's
• 48:35
  Speaker 5: historical ve Eagles don't win in this spot. It's it's
• 48:37
  Speaker 5: a really good spot to be playing a rookie at home.
• 48:40
  Speaker 5: So there's a bunch of different ways you're going to
• 48:42
  Speaker 5: approach it. I honestly think if you're able to people,
• 48:46
  Speaker 5: I'd let a ride like you made a great bet.
• 48:50
  Speaker 5: That's why the books are trying to give you a
• 48:51
  Speaker 5: cash out, Like I'd never cash out, because if the
• 48:53
  Speaker 5: books are offering you a cash out one, they're gonna
• 48:56
  Speaker 5: under they're goning to give you a bad price. They're
• 48:58
  Speaker 5: not going to pay you out with a should be
• 49:00
  Speaker 5: paying you. And it also just shows that they're terrified
• 49:02
  Speaker 5: because they don't want to cash out people like that
• 49:05
  Speaker 5: is not the business they're in. They're in the business
• 49:07
  Speaker 5: of taking your money. So the factor even giving you
• 49:10
  Speaker 5: that big of an option shows how terrified they are.
• 49:12
  Speaker 5: So yeah, I would pat myself on the back people
• 49:15
  Speaker 5: out there, if you had the balls to take it.
• 49:17
  Speaker 5: In August, I have fifty five to one or fifty
• 49:18
  Speaker 5: to one, and I'd let it ride. But if you
• 49:20
  Speaker 5: want to take a position hedge out of it, I
• 49:22
  Speaker 5: wouldn't do on the Eagles game.
• 49:24
  Speaker 3: I would do on the Bills game.
• 49:24
  Speaker 5: Because to me, that's that's the game that's truly a
• 49:27
  Speaker 5: coin flip, that Bills game, like none of us will
• 49:29
  Speaker 5: be shocked Sunday night if the Bills fell off that.
• 49:32
  Speaker 2: Upset Simon Hunter, professional coward.
• 49:36
  Speaker 5: I would be shocked if the Commanders put it off.
• 49:38
  Speaker 5: So to me, that's where the value is right now
• 49:41
  Speaker 5: if you're trying to hedge it, and obviously if it
• 49:43
  Speaker 5: gets to the Super Bowl, even more even easier to
• 49:46
  Speaker 5: take a position. You just basically will put half the
• 49:48
  Speaker 5: money on the Eagles because they will be an underdog either.
• 49:52
  Speaker 5: I don't know if this is true, but from my lines,
• 49:54
  Speaker 5: I do have the Eagles an underdog to the Chiefs
• 49:56
  Speaker 5: or the Bills. I'm positive the books will follow suit
• 49:59
  Speaker 5: like they're just that's just the way it usually is.
• 50:01
  Speaker 5: Usually AFC is going to get the respect in this
• 50:03
  Speaker 5: type of spot. So yeah, if you do want to
• 50:06
  Speaker 5: be patient, I think you'll get a nice opportunity in
• 50:08
  Speaker 5: the super Bowl. But yeah, chat film film pretty good.
• 50:11
  Speaker 5: I basically have somewhere around five K invested in the
• 50:15
  Speaker 5: Chiefs to beat the Eagles to win three orndred k.
• 50:17
  Speaker 5: And obviously people know I'm an Eagles fan. I have
• 50:19
  Speaker 5: a ton of money invested in the egos super Bowl future.
• 50:22
  Speaker 5: So yeah, no bets, I've sent the Commanders. No one
• 50:26
  Speaker 5: saw this coming, and I was I talked about coming
• 50:28
  Speaker 5: to the year. I did doubt the Bills did not
• 50:30
  Speaker 5: see this type of run happening, So have no money invested,
• 50:33
  Speaker 5: and I wouldn't need to hedge out if I had
• 50:35
  Speaker 5: to in that game against the Chiefs. But like I
• 50:38
  Speaker 5: just said, I'm gonna let it ride. I'm coffing in
• 50:39
  Speaker 5: our position and I love our bets right now.
• 50:41
  Speaker 1: So if you want to let if you want to
• 50:43
  Speaker 1: hedge in that second game, if you've got the Eagles
• 50:45
  Speaker 1: and the Eagles make it, and you want to hedge
• 50:47
  Speaker 1: on the on the Bills in that second game in
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: a matchup because you have the Chiefs against the Eagles
• 50:52
  Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl. Evan is also really good at
• 50:54
  Speaker 1: this stuff, So maybe when we can bring them in
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: in a second, I'm going to ask them his opinion too.
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: What's your normal hedging strategy? Do you bet half a
• 51:02
  Speaker 1: unit on the team so you can recover, you know,
• 51:05
  Speaker 1: half of the winnings that you would have otherwise had.
• 51:08
  Speaker 1: Even if you bet half a unit, you're still going
• 51:10
  Speaker 1: to be way ahead on whatever you put in for
• 51:13
  Speaker 1: the futures. Most people aren't putting in a full unit
• 51:17
  Speaker 1: when they're betting on huge futures at long odds. So
• 51:21
  Speaker 1: what would you as an amount tend to bet if
• 51:25
  Speaker 1: you were to hedge in this second game.
• 51:29
  Speaker 5: Once again, it's tough because it's about your confident level.
• 51:31
  Speaker 5: I mean, you have a fifty five to one ticket,
• 51:33
  Speaker 5: so I would view it as a minimum five to
• 51:38
  Speaker 5: eight units on the bills, like you want, you want
• 51:40
  Speaker 5: to make some good money here, and even if that
• 51:42
  Speaker 5: doesn't hit, you still leave yourself a huge ticket.
• 51:44
  Speaker 3: For that Super Bowl future. So it all depends your position.
• 51:47
  Speaker 5: Like I said, if if if you do just want
• 51:49
  Speaker 5: to recoup your your losses, you could do what you'd
• 51:52
  Speaker 5: just talked about. You could just put one unit on it,
• 51:54
  Speaker 5: like play it safe because you are confident, but you
• 51:56
  Speaker 5: want to make sure you least get that money back
• 51:58
  Speaker 5: to you invested the way back in August. But to me,
• 52:01
  Speaker 5: I'm all about turning profits. So at minimum, I would
• 52:03
  Speaker 5: say two to three units on the bills because you
• 52:06
  Speaker 5: want to make some money on which is a great play.
• 52:08
  Speaker 3: It's like you deserve that reward. You deserve to get
• 52:10
  Speaker 3: a nice kickback for that.
• 52:12
  Speaker 5: And that's why I'm saying with people that don't have
• 52:13
  Speaker 5: that that type of money put down or they're not
• 52:15
  Speaker 5: confident it hit that cash out button, like you're getting
• 52:18
  Speaker 5: paid out a nice a nice penny here for a
• 52:21
  Speaker 5: bet you made. So there's just so many ways you
• 52:24
  Speaker 5: can attack it. But yeah, for me personally, I want
• 52:26
  Speaker 5: to I want to get some money back that I
• 52:28
  Speaker 5: made good, good bet on, So I would definitely go
• 52:31
  Speaker 5: three to four five units on it, just so I
• 52:34
  Speaker 5: can get a nice hit with even if I do
• 52:36
  Speaker 5: lose that bet, And like we've done before, you can
• 52:38
  Speaker 5: find a middle That's why you know, it sucks that
• 52:41
  Speaker 5: it's dropped back down from two, but if this got
• 52:43
  Speaker 5: up to two and a half three, you're getting a
• 52:45
  Speaker 5: really nice chance to hit a middle with that Bill's number.
• 52:47
  Speaker 5: Which again, that's that's a position we want to be,
• 52:50
  Speaker 5: and we want to we want to have a middle spot.
• 52:51
  Speaker 3: But I think the books are wise to it. They're
• 52:53
  Speaker 3: not really going above that two.
• 52:54
  Speaker 1: Number super Bowl futures Egos plus one seventy five plus
• 53:00
  Speaker 1: two twenty Bills plus two thirty Commanders plus seven fifty
• 53:05
  Speaker 1: any worthwhile investment here. I was leaning to play in
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: the Chiefs at plus two twenty just because obviously we
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: like them to get to the super Bowl. They're not
• 53:16
  Speaker 1: going to have those kind of odds when they get there,
• 53:20
  Speaker 1: I'd probably like them.
• 53:21
  Speaker 2: To win the Super Bowl. So I feel like I'm
• 53:23
  Speaker 2: getting the best number on the Chiefs over the that
• 53:27
  Speaker 2: I'm going to get over the next two and a
• 53:29
  Speaker 2: half weeks.
• 53:31
  Speaker 3: Yeah.
• 53:31
  Speaker 5: So basically the way to go about this is if
• 53:35
  Speaker 5: you have no futures, if you're just looking for an
• 53:37
  Speaker 5: opinion on who we think is going to win the
• 53:38
  Speaker 5: Super Bowl.
• 53:38
  Speaker 3: I think me and Chat are both in agreeans we
• 53:40
  Speaker 3: think it's gonna be the Chiefs. Like it just it
• 53:42
  Speaker 3: fills lined up for them.
• 53:43
  Speaker 5: They have the perfect team put together right now, the
• 53:45
  Speaker 5: way they play, even if it is the Eagles of Commanders,
• 53:48
  Speaker 5: I think they match up well against both of them.
• 53:50
  Speaker 3: And you know you can shop around right now.
• 53:53
  Speaker 5: Are there are a couple of plus two thirties, a
• 53:54
  Speaker 5: couple plus two twenties out there on them to win
• 53:57
  Speaker 5: the Super Bowl at this point, the Chiefs, it's basically
• 54:00
  Speaker 5: you get in a line with their money line as
• 54:01
  Speaker 5: if they were a four to four and a half
• 54:03
  Speaker 5: point dog. So that to me is great value on
• 54:05
  Speaker 5: the Bills and the Chiefs. Like, if you like the
• 54:07
  Speaker 5: AFC side, you're getting great value because I just told
• 54:10
  Speaker 5: you my model has the Eagles as the dog against
• 54:14
  Speaker 5: the Bills and the Chiefs. So in my view of it,
• 54:16
  Speaker 5: if you're trying to play that type of number two
• 54:19
  Speaker 5: to one on the Chiefs or the Bills against the Eagles,
• 54:22
  Speaker 5: that's really really nice future to get. So that's one
• 54:27
  Speaker 5: way to play it. But like I said, I'm already
• 54:28
  Speaker 5: having invested, so I'm not doing anything. But in my opinion,
• 54:30
  Speaker 5: I think there's still value on this Chiefs team, Like
• 54:33
  Speaker 5: you know, you're getting them as as if they're a
• 54:35
  Speaker 5: four and a half dog against the Eagles, where we
• 54:37
  Speaker 5: know they're most likely going to be a favorite. So
• 54:39
  Speaker 5: to me, that's where my eyes go. Right I saw
• 54:42
  Speaker 5: that number, I was like, oh my god, it's above
• 54:44
  Speaker 5: two hundred and again it's just because the Bills and
• 54:46
  Speaker 5: the Chiefs are playing each other, but still that's tremendous
• 54:49
  Speaker 5: value against an Eagles team that you know, we all
• 54:51
  Speaker 5: know they're just the favorite just because it's it's more
• 54:54
  Speaker 5: likely they get there, not because they're better than the
• 54:56
  Speaker 5: Bills of the Chiefs. So that that to me, is
• 54:58
  Speaker 5: a horrible number to bet. If you're taking Eagles, the
• 55:00
  Speaker 5: way to go is either take the Chiefs or the Bills.
• 55:04
  Speaker 1: Excellent excellent questions for our users and breakdown. Want to
• 55:07
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• 56:18
  Speaker 1: I know the answer to this Simon's biggest bets.
• 56:23
  Speaker 2: Chiefs, chiefs, chiefs, God.
• 56:26
  Speaker 4: Damn it, God, damn it, damn it.
• 56:30
  Speaker 2: Eagles, Eagles, Eagles, am I right.
• 56:34
  Speaker 5: Yeah, And I love the tolls too on the on
• 56:36
  Speaker 5: the Eagles over. On the Chiefs under, I believe Chiefs
• 56:40
  Speaker 5: are Chiefs under is still forty seven and a half.
• 56:43
  Speaker 5: Still like the value there still tick that under and
• 56:46
  Speaker 5: the Eagles over. I could see it moving as they
• 56:48
  Speaker 5: get closer to the game. Right now, it's still forty
• 56:50
  Speaker 5: seven and a half. I could usually see that get
• 56:51
  Speaker 5: up to forty eighty forty eight and a half, which
• 56:53
  Speaker 5: that's where I.
• 56:53
  Speaker 3: Got to model that. I think there's still value on
• 56:55
  Speaker 3: the over.
• 56:56
  Speaker 5: And you know, my view of it is what me
• 56:58
  Speaker 5: and Chat kind of talked about there, where you know,
• 57:00
  Speaker 5: Eagles are a big play offense, and there's a high
• 57:03
  Speaker 5: variance right now.
• 57:04
  Speaker 3: On this Commanders team.
• 57:05
  Speaker 5: Them going for a fourth down and I just don't
• 57:07
  Speaker 5: see many many threes being kicked in this game. Even
• 57:10
  Speaker 5: the Eagles don't really trust their kicker right now. So
• 57:12
  Speaker 5: it feels like Washington Eagles easily get turned into a
• 57:15
  Speaker 5: shootout and that Chief spills game. Both sides wanted to
• 57:18
  Speaker 5: be born, wanted to take long, slow drives, and it's
• 57:22
  Speaker 5: it's basically bumped up just because of the names, right
• 57:25
  Speaker 5: it's the Mahomes versus Allen. We're getting probably two to
• 57:28
  Speaker 5: three free points because people are still living in twenty
• 57:30
  Speaker 5: twenty two, twenty twenty one, Like, these are not those
• 57:33
  Speaker 5: same teams, and it's it's not winning football. We've seen
• 57:37
  Speaker 5: that the NFL is shifted now where it's the.
• 57:40
  Speaker 3: Three the three.
• 57:40
  Speaker 5: I mean you can even say commanders, Like the four
• 57:42
  Speaker 5: best teams left all go for the moors the most
• 57:46
  Speaker 5: and most successfully are fourth down and they all have good,
• 57:49
  Speaker 5: strong run games. So we've definitely seen a shift chat
• 57:52
  Speaker 5: in the NFL, and that plays into this chief Spills game.
• 57:55
  Speaker 5: I just I like that under there. So yeah, both
• 57:57
  Speaker 5: favorites and then an over and under pretty pretty So.
• 58:02
  Speaker 2: When all hope is lost, all this left is relief.
• 58:06
  Speaker 4: Let's play Scoots Roulette.
• 58:10
  Speaker 2: Scoot Roulette.
• 58:11
  Speaker 1: Last week you had Buffalo, I had Baltimore. I feel
• 58:15
  Speaker 1: like we're gonna end up on the same teams this week.
• 58:18
  Speaker 5: Nah, well you can go first, you pick, I'll go,
• 58:21
  Speaker 5: and I'll go a different team.
• 58:22
  Speaker 2: Well I want the Chiefs, Yeah, I'll go Eagles.
• 58:24
  Speaker 3: Then all right, hey, ain't nobody trying to hit that bullshit?
• 58:29
  Speaker 4: All right?
• 58:29
  Speaker 1: Before we get out of here, let's welcome in our
• 58:31
  Speaker 1: direct You're so magnanimous, you're feeling so good this week.
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: You're unlike Matt Mitchell, who's like says he's free and
• 58:37
  Speaker 1: happy and you know, just joy, unhinged, dancing like no
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: one's watching. And yet we're seeing him comes in seven
• 58:46
  Speaker 1: years of knowing him.
• 58:48
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I've never seen him this unhinged.
• 58:50
  Speaker 4: Go outside, ner, get out, go. I ain't got time
• 58:55
  Speaker 4: to be distracted by your worthless chime. Man's gone. You
• 58:57
  Speaker 4: better tell this some much to walk the fuck out. Now?
• 59:00
  Speaker 4: Are we done for the day.
• 59:03
  Speaker 2: We get out of here.
• 59:04
  Speaker 1: Let's welcome in our director of research, Evan Abrams, for
• 59:08
  Speaker 1: the final word. Tell me something, Evan, make me feel good.
• 59:11
  Speaker 2: The last word with Evan Abrams, we're finished talking.
• 59:16
  Speaker 4: To be fair for people who've known Matt Mitchell for
• 59:19
  Speaker 4: as long as you and I have, I mean, this
• 59:21
  Speaker 4: is the closest he's ever been to the Promised Land,
• 59:23
  Speaker 4: Like this is actually the closest, like thirteen seconds and
• 59:26
  Speaker 4: the whole thing. Yeah, this is the Bills team that
• 59:29
  Speaker 4: isn't turning it over, it's playing say football, it's doing
• 59:32
  Speaker 4: exactly what they need to do to get there. So
• 59:34
  Speaker 4: I think he's unhinged because he's never been this nervous
• 59:36
  Speaker 4: in his life.
• 59:38
  Speaker 1: I'd like to see on Sunday night if they just
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: lose regular correct how he's feeling when we got to
• 59:45
  Speaker 1: record the podcast. Yeah, he barely made it onto the
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: show last Sunday.
• 59:50
  Speaker 4: I mean, he's not showing up the place, and then
• 59:52
  Speaker 4: he's showing up early and screaming and everyone. It's been
• 59:55
  Speaker 4: wonderful to answer some of your questions from earlier. There
• 59:59
  Speaker 4: are hypoth medical lines out for the Super Bowl right now.
• 1:00:02
  Speaker 4: So yeah, like Casey and Buffalo about four and a
• 1:00:05
  Speaker 4: half point favorites over Washington in both situations, and Casey
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 4: Buffalo both about one and a half favorites over Philly's
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 4: at this point. The interesting thing about those look aheadlines
• 1:00:16
  Speaker 4: Buffalo Washington total is fifty three and a half, which
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 4: is fun. Everything else is kind of in order. All so,
• 1:00:23
  Speaker 4: I'll give you a few stats for some of these games.
• 1:00:25
  Speaker 4: You guys had talked about the Chiefs and some of
• 1:00:27
  Speaker 4: the advantages they have. Well they have another advantage. If
• 1:00:30
  Speaker 4: you watch the games last weekend. They played the first
• 1:00:33
  Speaker 4: game of the weekend, they played on Saturday, weill Buffalo
• 1:00:35
  Speaker 4: played the last game of the weekend. So Chiefs actually
• 1:00:38
  Speaker 4: do have a full day rest and prep advantage against
• 1:00:41
  Speaker 4: Buffalo in this one. So Andy Reid in his career
• 1:00:44
  Speaker 4: forty five and twelve straight up Chiefs and Eagles when
• 1:00:48
  Speaker 4: coaching a game on extended prep time more than a
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 4: full week while his opponent is on normal or less.
• 1:00:53
  Speaker 4: When that game is at home, He's thirty one and
• 1:00:55
  Speaker 4: seven with Mahomes. Reid is twenty and three in that spot,
• 1:01:00
  Speaker 4: fourteen and one at home with the rest advantage. So
• 1:01:04
  Speaker 4: let's talk about the other thing I was gonna mention,
• 1:01:06
  Speaker 4: is this Casey's bet percentage Now, depending on the book
• 1:01:10
  Speaker 4: at action, we do like a consensus percentage right now,
• 1:01:12
  Speaker 4: it's in about the low thirties, which would be one
• 1:01:15
  Speaker 4: of the lowest of his careers. So Buffalo definitely getting
• 1:01:18
  Speaker 4: some love in this game. And let's turn our attention
• 1:01:21
  Speaker 4: now to Washington and Philly. So, yeah, Washington is a
• 1:01:24
  Speaker 4: six point underdog, but they feel like a bit of
• 1:01:26
  Speaker 4: a different six point underdog, and especially this year because
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 4: of their scoring. They are averaging twenty nine point one
• 1:01:32
  Speaker 4: points per game including the playoffs since the merger. Only
• 1:01:36
  Speaker 4: the twenty fourteen twenty fifteen Packers behind Aaron Rodgers averaged
• 1:01:40
  Speaker 4: twenty nine points per game or more. And we're this
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 4: high of an underdog. In the Conference championship. They closed
• 1:01:47
  Speaker 4: plus eight and a half against Seattle. In that game
• 1:01:49
  Speaker 4: they actually led nineteen seven, lost twenty eight to twenty two.
• 1:01:53
  Speaker 4: They did cover the spread, it means very little. I
• 1:01:55
  Speaker 4: think the thing I'm trying to prove here is that
• 1:01:57
  Speaker 4: Washington is kind of an enigma, honestly a team from
• 1:02:00
  Speaker 4: a scoring point of view, from the fact that they
• 1:02:02
  Speaker 4: have a rookie head coach, you know, a new one
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 4: for Washington, and an actual rookie quarterback. So I just
• 1:02:09
  Speaker 4: think they're a little bit messing with the models because
• 1:02:12
  Speaker 4: of their offense. And then I'll give you this last
• 1:02:14
  Speaker 4: note pure from bet Labs. But Commanders had no playoff experience,
• 1:02:18
  Speaker 4: didn't make it last year, while the Eagles they've got
• 1:02:21
  Speaker 4: a decent amount of playoff experience being to the Super Bowl.
• 1:02:24
  Speaker 4: Obviously they were there last year. So teams who didn't
• 1:02:27
  Speaker 4: make the playoffs the year prior are seven to ten
• 1:02:29
  Speaker 4: against the spread versus a team who did. In the
• 1:02:31
  Speaker 4: conference championship dating back to two thousand and four, when
• 1:02:34
  Speaker 4: the spread is over a field goal. They are one
• 1:02:37
  Speaker 4: to nine straight up and four and six against the spread. Now,
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 4: the one upset Joe Burrow and the Bengals over the
• 1:02:44
  Speaker 4: Chiefs in twenty twenty two that took Mahomes home and
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 4: took them to the super Bowl. So the numbers aren't
• 1:02:50
  Speaker 4: fantastic for Daniels, But who the heck cares at this point.
• 1:02:53
  Speaker 4: I mean, he's won twice as underdogs and now he's
• 1:02:56
  Speaker 4: an underdog again. That's only happened once where you've won
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 4: all three games in the playoffs as an underdog to
• 1:03:02
  Speaker 4: get to the super Bowl two thousand and eight Giants.
• 1:03:05
  Speaker 4: So we will see what type of history Washington makes
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 4: on Sunday.
• 1:03:09
  Speaker 5: My favorite Daniels stat is in nine season Dak Prescott
• 1:03:12
  Speaker 5: two playoff wins, Jane Daniels one season two playoff wins.
• 1:03:16
  Speaker 3: I love the troll.
• 1:03:17
  Speaker 2: Well, look, it's very possible he's just a cheat code
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 2: that can really be accounted for.
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah, and we're having all these conversations about it, and
• 1:03:26
  Speaker 1: in the end of the days, he's Mahomes asking what
• 1:03:29
  Speaker 1: he can do on the field that you have to
• 1:03:32
  Speaker 1: discount every other element of the game. What was that
• 1:03:35
  Speaker 1: stat that Andy Reid with Patrick Mahomes is twenty and
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: three straight up with an extra day of rest.
• 1:03:42
  Speaker 4: It's just a rest advantage. Yes, so when they have
• 1:03:45
  Speaker 4: eight or more so, like more than a full week,
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 4: and the opponent is normal or less, so seven or
• 1:03:50
  Speaker 4: less twenty and three with Mahomes fourteen and one. At home.
• 1:03:53
  Speaker 4: When I say fourteen and one, though I in my
• 1:03:55
  Speaker 4: brain am saying to myself, who is the loss? I
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 4: honestly can't remember, but I have to look it up.
• 1:04:00
  Speaker 3: It's gonna be the Raiders something.
• 1:04:01
  Speaker 4: It's either it's always Raiders or Tom Brady, which is
• 1:04:05
  Speaker 4: now the same thing. So which is funny?
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 2: That is funny? Thank you Evan.
• 1:04:09
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