Latest / The House Never Wins / UFC 330 Could Change Welterweight | The House Never Wins – LCNG #104

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UFC 330 Could Change Welterweight | The House Never Wins – LCNG #104 · The House Never Wins

• 0:00
  - Now flip it. Islam wins. What happens? I
• 0:04
  - think the division gets even more interesting
• 0:07
  - because
• 0:08
  - then the question becomes,
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  - who can actually beat Islam? Hello. Hello. One
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  - of the most interesting fights of the UFC
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  - summer, it's finally here. Islam Makhachev,
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  - Ian Machado Gari, welterweight
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  - championship.
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  - And this isn't just another title fight. No.
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  - Because Islam Makhachev is trying to establish himself
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  - as the best fighter at the one hundred
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  - seventy pounds
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  - after already dominate the lightweight
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  - division. Hello, guys. Welcome.
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  - Hi. Yamashadogari
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  - is coming in as the number one contender.
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  - He's 17 and one. He's long. He's tactical,
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  - and he's coming off two straight victories after
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  - suffering the first loss of his professional career
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  - against Ravka Ragnov.
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  - Yes, guys. And from the betting perspective, this
• 0:59
  - is fascinating because we are looking at a
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  - massive favorite. Current prices have around
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  - minus 320
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  - to minus 365
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  - depending of the sport book, with Gary around
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  - plus
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  - 255
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  - to plus 280.
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  - So UFC
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  - unleashing currently has it around minus
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  - 350
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  - and Gary plus 275.
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  - So, guys,
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  - the question isn't simply
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  - who's going to win? No. It's, is Islam
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  - actually worth that prize? And
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  - if Gary wins,
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  - what happens to the entire welterweight
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  - division?
• 1:43
  - Welcome back to La Casa Nogana.
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  - Now let's talk about of this fight, and
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  - let's establish the situation, guys. So
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  - Islam Makhachev moved up from lightweight after vacating
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  - that title and captured the welterweight
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  - championship at USC by dominating Jack de la
• 2:02
  - Maddalena
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  - over five rounds.
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  - And now he's defending
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  - the 170
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  - title for the first time.
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  - Yep. And that's important because this isn't just
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  - Islam is moving up to fight a bigger
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  - guy.
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  - We have already seen him, one hundred and
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  - seventy pounds, and he looked extremely
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  - comfortable. Which is exactly why the market is
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  - pricing him like this at around minus 350.
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  - The sport the sportbooks is essentially saying, we
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  - believe Islam wins the fight a lot more
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  - often than he loses it. But here's the
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  - betting question, guys. How often is enough?
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  - Because if you're paying
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  - minus 350,
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  - you're not just asking.
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  - Does Islam win? You're asking.
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  - Does Islam win often enough to justify risking
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  - that price?
• 2:58
  - Exactly, buddy.
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  - Now, Tom, let's talk fighting.
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  - What's the actual matchup?
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  - Okay. So it's really fascinating because on paper,
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  - you have two different
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  - fighters.
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  - Islam greatest weapon is still his ability to
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  - impose his grappling. But what makes him dangerous
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  - is that he's not simply a wrestler anymore.
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  - He's developed a lot. He's striking, and his
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  - entries are much more difficult to read now.
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  - So
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  - he can threaten with the takedown and then
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  - attack from the clinch or striking range. And
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  - once he gets you down,
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  - you're dealing with one of the best positional
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  - rappers in MMA.
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  - And Gary? Well, Gary's biggest weapon
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  - is distance.
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  - He's really tall. He's long, and he's very
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  - comfortable fighting at range, so he can make
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  - the opponent reach. He can manipulate the distance,
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  - and he's very good at making fights happen
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  - on his own terms. But, we also have
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  - to talk about the loss because Gary's first
• 4:00
  - professional loss come against
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  - Zakat Vlachmanov.
• 4:04
  - Yeah. And that's important context.
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  - Gary lost that fight by unanimous decision at
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  - USC three ten. And it was the first
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  - time we'd seen him genuinely have to deal
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  - with that opponent that could consistently
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  - fit in him with elite grappling and physical
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  - pressure. But he didn't collapse
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  - after it. Exactly. He came back and beat
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  - Carlos then followed that up with a unanimous
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  - decision win over Bilal Mohammed. So the question
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  - isn't,
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  - is Gary undefeated?
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  - We know he's not. But the better question
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  - is, did that first lost reveal a ceiling,
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  - or did it Gary
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  - have the experience
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  - he needed to evolve? And that's an enormous
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  - betting question, Tom. So now let's talk about
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  - numbers. My favorite part, of course. The line
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  - open around
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  - minus 278
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  - to minus 300
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  - depending on the book. With Gary around plus
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  - 240
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  - to plus 250.
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  - Since then, the market has moved toward Islam.
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  - Some books have him around
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  - minus 350
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  - or higher.
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  - So their market has become more expensive.
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  - Yes, Bobby. And that matters because there's a
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  - huge difference between Islam
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  - minus 250
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  - and Islam
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  - minus 350.
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  - Yeah. The fire didn't suddenly become
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  - 40% better. Exactly, Dom. So the price changed,
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  - and that's where bettors get themselves into trouble.
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  - They think Islam is going to win, but
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  - that doesn't answer the betting question.
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  - Okay. Let's make it simple, very simple. At
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  - minus 350,
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  - Islam needs to win.
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  - Roughly
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  - 77.8
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  - of the time just to break even.
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  - Correct, Fabi. So if personally believe Slam wins
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  - a fight 80%
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  - of the time, there isn't much h. But
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  - if I believe he wins 85%,
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  - now we're talking about a different situation.
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  - Yep. And I'm not sure if I put
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  - him at 85%.
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  - Interesting.
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  - So, Tom,
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  - you're first.
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  - No headwind.
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  - Who wins?
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  - Islam a hardship.
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  - But I don't think this is necessarily an
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  - easy fight. I think Gary is going to
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  - have success early. He's going to make Islam
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  - work to close the distance,
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  - and he's going to use his jab a
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  - lot, his movement, his kicks. And there will
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  - be probably moments where Islam will look frustrated,
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  - but eventually,
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  - Islam starts solving the distance problem, and he
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  - gets Gary to the cage.
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  - He starts changing attacks, and once Gary had
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  - to defend, take down con continuously,
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  - his striking will become less and less dangerous.
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  - Method? I think, Islam by decision,
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  - possibly late submission if Gary gets exhausted.
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  - But my primary prediction
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  - is Mahashev by unanimous decision. Interesting, Tom, because
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  - if you are saying decision,
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  - that could create a much more interesting betting
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  - market than simply playing Islam at minus 350.
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  - Exactly.
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  - So, Pau, your turn. What are you actually
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  - betting? I'm not interested in blindly lying at
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  - minus 350.
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  - There's is it? Yes. I think Fabi's lamb
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  - is the rightful favorite, but the favorite and
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  - the bet are two different things. At around
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  - minus 350,
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  - the market is demanding a very high win
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  - probability.
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  - And I think Gary's ability
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  - to stay at ranch creates enough uncertainty
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  - that I don't want to pay that premium.
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  - So you're taking Gary? Not necessarily, Tom. That's
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  - important distinction. I can think Islam wins and
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  - simultaneously think Islam minus 350
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  - is above it. So so
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  - what will you actually play? I look at
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  - Islam by decision
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  - or potentially a decision
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  - propping the if the price becomes attractive enough
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  - because Gary's more realistic
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  - path to winning is keeping the fight standing,
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  - managing distance,
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  - and winning rounds. I totally agree with that.
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  - I don't see Gary submitting Islam, and I
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  - don't see him overpowering
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  - him on the ground. If Gary wins, I
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  - think it's probably comes through five rounds of
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  - discipline striking. Yes. So, Fabi,
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  - you haven't picked picked yet, so it's your
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  - turn. I'm going Islam,
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  - but I'm going to make it interesting.
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  - Let's see how.
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  - Okay. Slam wins. Okay? But I'm not betting
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  - the money line at minus 350.
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  - I'm looking for a slam by decision. Exactly,
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  - Fabi. Actually, where I am.
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  - Because because.
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  - I don't think Gary is a easy to
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  - finish. He's incredibly long. He's difficult to catch
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  - clean, and he is not going to willingly
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  - stand in front of Islam. And that's key.
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  - Islam can dominate someone without necessarily
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  - finishing them. Exactly.
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  - So
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  - Islam by decision. That's my decision right now.
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  - Islam by decision. And my pick, Islam by
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  - decision, but only at the right price.
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  - Now let's talk about the really interesting part.
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  - What happens
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  - what happens
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  - if Ian Machado Gary actually wins?
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  - I think everything changes.
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  - Of course. Immediately.
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  - Because suddenly Islam isn't this unstoppable force at
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  - a 170.
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  - And Gary becomes the center price of one
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  - of the deepest divisions in the UFC.
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  - And that's not exaggeration. Okay?
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  - Look at the names around the division. Carlos
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  - Paredes, Michael Morales, Jack de la Maddalena, Mohammed,
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  - Sean Brady. My god. Yeah. And that's why
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  - Gary's previous loss is actually relevant.
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  - If he beats Islam after losing to Raghunov,
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  - that tells us something extremely important. Gary can
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  - lose.
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  - He can be challenged, but he can also
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  - learn and come back better. Yes. And that's
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  - exactly what makes the potential future betting mark
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  - get so interesting. If Gary wins, he goes
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  - from can the other the underdog pull it
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  - off to can Gary actually become the dominate
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  - champion?
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  - That's completely
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  - different market.
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  - Now flip it. Islam wins. What happens? I
• 10:46
  - think the division gets even more interesting because
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  - then the question becomes,
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  - who can actually beat Islam? And, Tom, suddenly,
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  - we are looking at the next wave.
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  - Carlos Paredes, Michael Morales,
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  - potential potentially
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  - another contender depending on what happens. And Islam
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  - himself has recently point toward Paredes as a
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  - particularly
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  - interesting future opponent.
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  - And Michael Morales is already positioned close to
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  - the title picture. Yeah. And I think that's
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  - an incredible mashup because Morales
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  - is a very different problem than Gary. Which
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  - is why this division is so interesting.
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  - Gary is one problem.
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  - Is another.
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  - Morales, another. And Islam has to solve all
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  - of them. So let's finish with the question
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  - every better is asking. Is
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  - minus 350
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  - a good bet? No, Fabi. I don't think
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  - it's, automatically
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  - a good bet. Yeah. But I think Islam
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  - is the most likely winner. Okay. I think
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  - those two statements can coexist. Absolutely. And that's
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  - the entire lesson of this episode. Islam wins
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  - without believing. Islam minus 350
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  - is viable.
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  - Yep. And that's what makes this fight fascinating
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  - because Gary doesn't have to be the better
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  - fighter overall. He just has to win often
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  - enough to justify his prize.
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  - And at plus 275,
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  - that's a very different proposition.
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  - Okay. Final predictions,
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  - Tom. Yeah. I'm gonna go with Islam Makhachev
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  - by unanimous decision. I'm gonna say same winner,
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  - but my bet is Makhachev by decision if
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  - the price is right. And I'm staying away
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  - from lying minus 350
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  - on the money line. I'm also taking Makhachev
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  - by decision. And
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  - if I had to take the underdog,
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  - I'd rather take Gary on the money line
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  - than trying to predict some crazy knockout prop
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  - because this path is clear.
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  - Stay standing, control distance,
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  - make Islam work, and win rounds.
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  - Yep. That's basically the entire fight. So Islam
• 13:02
  - Makhachev versus Ian Machado Gari, a champion trying
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  - to establish himself at one hundred seventy pounds,
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  - a former
• 13:12
  - undefeated contender. Now 17 to one, trying to
• 13:16
  - take the bed the belt from a man
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  - who currently sits at the top of the
• 13:21
  - welterweight
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  - division.
• 13:24
  - But remember,
• 13:25
  - the question isn't always who's going to win.
• 13:29
  - It is, is the prize correct?
• 13:31
  - Yep. Because it's MMA. So one mistake can
• 13:34
  - turn a minus 350
• 13:37
  - favorite into a plus
• 13:39
  - 275
• 13:40
  - champion. And what about if Gary pulls this
• 13:43
  - off? The welterweight
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  - division, it's officially
• 13:46
  - chaos.
• 13:47
  - And what about, Flavi, if Islam
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  - wins?
• 13:50
  - Then we are asking a much scarier question.
• 13:54
  - Who the hell can bet this guy at
• 13:57
  - a hundred and seventy pounds? Well, finding out
• 14:00
  - this Saturday, this is La Casa Nogana. Yeah.
• 14:03
  - Good luck with your beds. And chop those
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  - lines.
• 14:06
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• 14:07
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• 14:09
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  - money from this UFC. Night to see you
• 14:24
  - next week. Bye.
• 14:26
  - Bye.