Latest / The Paul Barron Crypto Show / EXTREME Sell Pressure!🔥Crypto Market Update

Transcript

EXTREME Sell Pressure!🔥Crypto Market Update · The Paul Barron Crypto Show

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: There's a cell pressure and it's coming to a boiling
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: point for the crypto markets. So they will break it
• 0:04
  Speaker 1: down for you. It's going to have a huge impact
• 0:06
  Speaker 1: on how things could play out this year. Let's just
• 0:09
  Speaker 1: jump right into it. I do want to thank our sponsor,
• 0:11
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• 0:13
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• 0:34
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• 0:36
  Speaker 1: this market, especially when people are in a position right
• 0:39
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• 0:43
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• 0:46
  Speaker 1: All right, let's go over to a couple of points
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: I want to hit on. Tippillows kind of hits it
• 0:51
  Speaker 1: right here. Something's brwing, big move is up on us.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: I'm in an agreement with this. There's something up in
• 0:59
  Speaker 1: the market the way it's respawning, what I'm seeing in
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: sentiment data, what I'm seeing by major institutions. It is
• 1:05
  Speaker 1: a very unusual time, and I think everybody has been
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: pointing this particular issue because you look at the outflows
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: right now, this is the lowest or the biggest, i
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: should say, in outflows since twenty twenty two. Money is
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: leaving the market at one of the fastest rates since
• 1:22
  Speaker 1: the last bear market. You can kind of see the
• 1:23
  Speaker 1: dip that we are starting to see right here. The
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: question is is where is it going? You look at
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: the AI trade, people are questioning, You've got situations brewing
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: within the S and P obviously risk assets continuing to bleed.
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: The real question I think is going forward on how
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: this plays out. Well, you know that you're in a
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: bear market when Sailor actually says it, take a look.
• 1:47
  Speaker 2: We are in a crypto winner. This is the fifth
• 1:50
  Speaker 2: major drawdown of bitcoin into five years since I've been
• 1:54
  Speaker 2: in the marketplace. This is a much milder winter than
• 1:57
  Speaker 2: previous winters. It'll be shorter than previous winters. It's going
• 2:02
  Speaker 2: to be followed by a spring and then a glorious summer.
• 2:05
  Speaker 2: So don't fear. Why do you feel so confidencing that
• 2:10
  Speaker 2: the banking segment sector is supporting bitcoin. We've got the
• 2:14
  Speaker 2: support of the administration, We've got a bitcoin president, we've
• 2:18
  Speaker 2: got twelve cabinet members that are pro digital assets and
• 2:21
  Speaker 2: pro innovation.
• 2:23
  Speaker 3: Let's get to strategy. Because your company's average acquisition price
• 2:27
  Speaker 3: for all those bitcoin is around what seventy six thousand?
• 2:31
  Speaker 3: Can you just clarify that and make sure that I'm
• 2:33
  Speaker 3: right on that?
• 2:35
  Speaker 2: Yeah? In that range?
• 2:36
  Speaker 4: Okay, do you have.
• 2:37
  Speaker 3: A framework Michael for reclaiming that.
• 2:42
  Speaker 1: I guess that.
• 2:42
  Speaker 3: Premium absent any rally in bitcoin back to one hundred
• 2:45
  Speaker 3: and twenty six thousand.
• 2:47
  Speaker 2: Well, that's why we have two and a half years
• 2:49
  Speaker 2: worth of cash on the balance sheet, So if the
• 2:52
  Speaker 2: markets seized up for the next two and a half years,
• 2:54
  Speaker 2: we just pay cash. That's why we have the fifty
• 2:57
  Speaker 2: five years worth of over collateralization and the bitcoin. So
• 3:02
  Speaker 2: you're right, if you needed to be perfect in the
• 3:04
  Speaker 2: next week or the next month, there might be risk.
• 3:07
  Speaker 2: We just need to be right over the next decade
• 3:10
  Speaker 2: for the equity to pay off, and we need to
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: be right, you know sometime in the next forty or
• 3:15
  Speaker 2: fifty years.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: All right, So there you have, of course, Michael Saylor
• 3:20
  Speaker 1: kind of securing up that yes, we have seen these
• 3:23
  Speaker 1: times before. The question is is how much of a
• 3:25
  Speaker 1: drawdown will we see, especially on the major asset with bitcoin.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: We have a Bloomberg strategist coming in, Mike mcgloan who's
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: actually pointing out to forty oh, excuse me, to twenty
• 3:35
  Speaker 1: eight k on bitcoin. You heard me right, twenty eight
• 3:37
  Speaker 1: k on bitcoin. One of his points I think is interesting.
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: The mode the price level that has occurred most frequently
• 3:45
  Speaker 1: sits closer to the twenty eight K range. And this
• 3:47
  Speaker 1: isn't based on practical terms that basically suggest the market
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: has spent more time trading in this range than any
• 3:55
  Speaker 1: other area. So most people who have been buying and
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: trading within the range for bitcoin, it's been somewhere around
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: that twenty eight to thirty thousand dollars. So do we
• 4:03
  Speaker 1: actually reach that that's the real question. That would be
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: a significant drawdown on the market. That I think would
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: probably go against what Sailor just said, is that this
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: might be lighter than once in the past. That would
• 4:15
  Speaker 1: actually be greater if we do see a twenty eight
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: k pitcoin. Now, let me get into this because one
• 4:20
  Speaker 1: of the things that is kind of I think confusing
• 4:23
  Speaker 1: the market is the fact that we've started to see
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: a drawdown on AI and all the plays that have
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: been pretty much indicative of running the S and P
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: over the last two years, but yet we have not
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: seen movement into risk assets. Look at this clip, so
• 4:38
  Speaker 1: I would.
• 4:38
  Speaker 4: Say we're a different market. We no longer have the
• 4:42
  Speaker 4: love affair with AI that we had last year. This
• 4:45
  Speaker 4: is a market David defined, I think and will continue
• 4:48
  Speaker 4: to be defined by three words volatility, dispersion. You're going
• 4:53
  Speaker 4: to see a lot more dispersion and fragmentation. And I
• 4:57
  Speaker 4: would build my position bottom up, not top down, and
• 5:01
  Speaker 4: I would certainly be picking up names that are were
• 5:05
  Speaker 4: impacted by this theory of the market for lemons, meaning
• 5:08
  Speaker 4: they overshoot on the way down because they end up
• 5:11
  Speaker 4: having a one technical correlation with names that are weaker.
• 5:15
  Speaker 4: So I think this is a massive opportunity for stock picks,
• 5:18
  Speaker 4: and it particularly in the AI world and in the
• 5:21
  Speaker 4: world impacted by AI. So for me, this is a
• 5:25
  Speaker 4: world in which people should be building their portfolio bottom
• 5:28
  Speaker 4: up and picking up some really good bargains. You know,
• 5:31
  Speaker 4: we no longer have the unifying theme. I grew up
• 5:33
  Speaker 4: in an easy world where there were two themes globalization,
• 5:37
  Speaker 4: the ever closer integration of countries and the Washington Consensus
• 5:42
  Speaker 4: certain ways you run your economy. We don't have those anymore,
• 5:46
  Speaker 4: so we will get a lot of volatility as we
• 5:48
  Speaker 4: go forward.
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: I wonder how much in terms of volatility, because you're
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: dealing with enterprise companies out there right now that may
• 5:57
  Speaker 1: not even have a realization of how the AI plays
• 6:01
  Speaker 1: are going to affect them. And what I'm getting at
• 6:03
  Speaker 1: is when you look at the things that are happening
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: around Claude Bot, the idea of where we might start
• 6:07
  Speaker 1: to see a new resurrection of companies that are building
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: against the enterprise. That's why you were seeing a lot
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: of those enterprise software companies down quite a bit in
• 6:16
  Speaker 1: the SMP. That of course puts more pressure on the
• 6:19
  Speaker 1: AI play. But again many people would say, well, why
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: aren't we seeing if we're seeing a rotation out of that,
• 6:23
  Speaker 1: why aren't we seeing that into risk assets. I think
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: Muhammad is right. I think the rotation is going into
• 6:29
  Speaker 1: whether it's the Rustle two thousand or other plays within
• 6:33
  Speaker 1: these categories that could be much more diversified, whether it's energy,
• 6:37
  Speaker 1: look at defense, you could see all sorts of companies
• 6:40
  Speaker 1: out there that are implementing AI that will benefit from that,
• 6:44
  Speaker 1: where maybe the actual AI companies are not so a
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: lot definitely having a factor on where this market is going,
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: and volatility is going to be one of them. Here's
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: another issue, because volatility is going to be let out
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: by the FED chair and of course your own power
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: is stepping down or will be ending his term, i
• 7:02
  Speaker 1: should say, and his term ends on the fifteenth of May. Now,
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: the way it works is normally the FED Committee takes
• 7:09
  Speaker 1: direction from the new FED starting in before the term
• 7:12
  Speaker 1: is over, and right now, this would be the March
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: tenth day. That's twenty nine to thirty days from right now.
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: So if you look at this, many people would say
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: this is still about thirty days out before a regime change,
• 7:25
  Speaker 1: because if we are getting dictator a dictation right now
• 7:28
  Speaker 1: from Kevin Walsh, granted he still has to go through
• 7:31
  Speaker 1: the confirmation phase, but the point being is if that
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: does start to move, and I think that's why the
• 7:35
  Speaker 1: White House has already started to kind of push to
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: get Congress moving on Kevin Walsh's confirmation as quickly as possible.
• 7:41
  Speaker 1: That could mean early potential signs that the market could
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: respond to Walsh and whether or not we see rate
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: cuts now, whether or not that matters in the market.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: I think you've got to look at historical areas of
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: where the markets have come from, and if you look
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: at the psychology of a market cycle, this is a
• 8:00
  Speaker 1: good one right here. Many people are thinking we might
• 8:03
  Speaker 1: might be right in this area right here, which is
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: in the area of anger, and I think we might
• 8:09
  Speaker 1: be a little bit further into this trend. We aren't
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: at the depression phase yet because I think there's still
• 8:15
  Speaker 1: some people out there that are playing and this I'm
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: talking about all markets. I think the one that will
• 8:19
  Speaker 1: start to put the depression phase in is the complete
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: abandonment of any AI plays that we start to see
• 8:26
  Speaker 1: in the major markets. If we do see that starting
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: to retrace down, then I think you're in a position
• 8:31
  Speaker 1: where we could see movements into the market from there.
• 8:34
  Speaker 1: Other points I want to get on all coins. Sell
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: pressure just hit a five year extreme level. And this
• 8:40
  Speaker 1: is big because for the thirteen straight months, all coins
• 8:43
  Speaker 1: have seen continuous net selling right now on centralized exchanges
• 8:48
  Speaker 1: right there, so retail largely out. I agree with the
• 8:51
  Speaker 1: guys over at coin Bureau on this one. This is
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: a big deal. Look at that chart in terms of
• 8:56
  Speaker 1: the fall off that we've seen at all coins, so
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: no all coin season at all in this round, so
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: completely different cycle. And because of that, you've got even
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: Ran talking about this is this is completely different of
• 9:09
  Speaker 1: where it's looking. He's going completely off the reservation in
• 9:13
  Speaker 1: terms of how to play this. And this was the
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: reason why in twenty eighteen, the move that we're seeing
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: right now, which was the move from one to twenty
• 9:20
  Speaker 1: six to the two hundred week moving average, was in
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: four months. Look at the chart. In twenty eighteen, that
• 9:26
  Speaker 1: move took a took a year. In twenty twenty two,
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: it took thirty weeks. So we are seeing this in
• 9:31
  Speaker 1: a very limited time. So that along with the issue
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: that we're facing right now with people even we've got
• 9:38
  Speaker 1: a video that's just breaking this whole issue around quantum
• 9:41
  Speaker 1: risk for bitcoin. Bitcoin is failing the debasement test, that's
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: going against the issue around the store of value. Funds
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: are unwinding, AI is pulling capital. This is the whole
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: issue that we're getting into. And then you still have
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: the issue with clarity. So I'm in agreement with ran
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: in this in the sense that I think you have
• 10:00
  Speaker 1: to get much more diversified, much more aligned with some
• 10:04
  Speaker 1: of the volatility plays that are going into the market.
• 10:07
  Speaker 1: So that's exactly the way I'm playing it. It is
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: definitely one of the things I think that people need
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: to do. Other things you have to look at is
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: where the guys that are going with the money, and
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: that of course is a billionaire Peter Thiel. He of
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: course is pulling out of the eth Treasury firm. This
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: was eat Zella Selles his entire stake. This was a
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: big deal because it does affect DATS. I think dats
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: are another big factor going on right now. And when
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: you have that pressure along with this, which is a
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: potential war brewing right now. Axios reporting that there is
• 10:38
  Speaker 1: evidence that the US is now brewing and setting up
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: for a scenario that we could have a war active
• 10:45
  Speaker 1: in a very interesting time of when the Epstein files
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: are going to drop the next tronch which is later
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: this week, and all of these tankers moving and starting
• 10:56
  Speaker 1: to basically head into the Middle East. I don't know.
• 10:58
  Speaker 1: Timing is always a reason, and I think these things
• 11:02
  Speaker 1: play out. I'm not saying that this could happen, but
• 11:04
  Speaker 1: this will have an effect on the market. All right.
• 11:07
  Speaker 1: So let's pick up some other issues right here, and
• 11:09
  Speaker 1: that is around institutional investors rarely have been this bearish
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: on the US dollar. Look at this US dollar net
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: exposure by global fund manager down thirty five points. All right,
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: that's the lowest in the last fourteen years. And this
• 11:22
  Speaker 1: is below the twenty twenty five bottom when President Trump
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: surprised the markets with Liberation Day. So it's worse than that.
• 11:30
  Speaker 1: It's worse than you can look back all the way
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: in past the pandemic. The examples are striking in terms
• 11:37
  Speaker 1: of how the dollar is performing, and this I think
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: does have a big factor on the global markets. Other
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: things that would have a big factor on the global
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: markets is the ECB, because now you've got essentially a
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: move right now by Laguard setting up for a resignation. Now,
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: the reason that I think I was watching France twenty
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: four on this, and I think their analysis was a
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: spot on, is that Macron and Mertz are essentially concerned
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: that if they lose a potential left leaning position at
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: the ECB, this would make things much more difficult for
• 12:11
  Speaker 1: the EU and especially around the European plan around the
• 12:15
  Speaker 1: Digital EU and the Digital Euro, which has of course
• 12:19
  Speaker 1: been led by Kristin Legard. So interesting timing here. I
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: think she's coming out before they potentially lose control and
• 12:26
  Speaker 1: the right potentially could come into the ECB. That was
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: the factor going forward right there, the digital Euro to
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: be cheaper than credit cards. This of course is again
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: what she has been working on to try to get
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: this done. This is more pressure on the EU, I
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: think on a macro standpoint, and I think if we
• 12:44
  Speaker 1: start to see more conflict in the world, and especially
• 12:48
  Speaker 1: if we get into Iran, this starts to get things
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: very dicey into the EU, and of course this gets
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: things much more volatile overall in the markets. Other things
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: to look at when volatility, well, everybody kind of runs
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: for the metals, and this is what e Toro was
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: talking about. They are now in traditional assets and they're
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: moving into gold. Now twenty four to seven, you're going
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: to be able to get into tokenized gold over there.
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: So this is just more assets going in that direction.
• 13:14
  Speaker 1: We've seen tokenized gold climbing dramatically. I want to go
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: to a clip real quick because this explains a little
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: bit more about the metals market and how it plays
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: into crypto investors. Take a look.
• 13:26
  Speaker 3: Tell that those people jumping into the metals are the
• 13:30
  Speaker 3: same ones who are exiting some crypto.
• 13:33
  Speaker 5: I'm not sure whether they're exiting most of holders of
• 13:36
  Speaker 5: crypto in many cases are hoddlers. But we see they're
• 13:39
  Speaker 5: more engaged now in commodity. So if in the past
• 13:42
  Speaker 5: we've seen crypto people come to eToro then trade stocks,
• 13:46
  Speaker 5: suddenly now we're seeing crypto people come into etro then
• 13:49
  Speaker 5: trade commodity.
• 13:50
  Speaker 3: Okay, when you say trading gold, can you explain to
• 13:53
  Speaker 3: our viewers is it physical gold? Is it GLD?
• 13:56
  Speaker 5: No, It's very similar to a future, to a perpetual future.
• 14:00
  Speaker 5: So it's basically a leverage contract that basically doesn't expire,
• 14:05
  Speaker 5: unlike traditional futures.
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: Where e Toro plans to be in let's say a year,
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: a year or two. You want to be a super
• 14:12
  Speaker 3: apt most how many active users? How many registered users?
• 14:15
  Speaker 5: Registered users? Now about forty five millions. Now that audience
• 14:21
  Speaker 5: is a young audience joined just in their twenties, now
• 14:23
  Speaker 5: maturing going into their forties. We want to make sure
• 14:26
  Speaker 5: we cater to their entire financial needs.
• 14:28
  Speaker 3: You've got a real business here, eighteen point five billion
• 14:32
  Speaker 3: dollars a year over year, so.
• 14:34
  Speaker 5: On the path will fully to a trillion dollars.
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: Well, there you have e Toro moving on it. Of course,
• 14:39
  Speaker 1: one of the things that also starts to signify movement
• 14:42
  Speaker 1: within the metals market is what Tether's doing. They're offering
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: dividends and tokenized gold. They announced this that their shareholders
• 14:49
  Speaker 1: will have the option to receive dividends in either tokenized gold,
• 14:53
  Speaker 1: and they're expanding the use of tokenized gold as a
• 14:55
  Speaker 1: payout alternative, going further and further away from bitcoin. Interesting
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: times over there at Tether. You look at the gold
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: chart right here. This is up right now almost ten
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: percent just from this recent down around forty five hundred
• 15:10
  Speaker 1: back to around holding at the five thousand. As we're
• 15:13
  Speaker 1: talking today, it is trading at forty nine to ninety
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: one an ounce, so check that out. Last up, of course,
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: you have the White House considering another stable coin yield
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: meeting with the banks. This, of course is more pressure
• 15:24
  Speaker 1: on the banks. I think Polymarket knows something, or the
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: people in Polly Market know something that we are about
• 15:32
  Speaker 1: to see Marct Clarity come to reality. The other thing
• 15:35
  Speaker 1: that plays into this is whether or not the stable
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: coin yield has been conceded by both the industry or
• 15:44
  Speaker 1: has there been maybe a relationship, because remember Patrick Witt
• 15:48
  Speaker 1: pivoted a little bit. Patrick Witt is the digital advisor
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: for Crypto underneath David Sachs. He was kind of pro
• 15:55
  Speaker 1: I felt like it was more pro bank trying to
• 15:57
  Speaker 1: get a deal done. And then recently it's been yes,
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: we need to protect stable coin yields. So has something
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: changed out there in the clarity that has caused it
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: to skyrocket right now over on poly markets starting to
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: bump near almost seventy percent out there. Wall Street wants
• 16:13
  Speaker 1: to turn the twenty twenty eight election into an ETF
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: and if you look at a couple of points here,
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: I want to zoom in on this right here. The
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: framing is clever. It's also convenient turns what most people
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: would recognize as gambling into something that sounds respectable and measurable.
• 16:28
  Speaker 1: Analysts like Jay this. Of course, James Seyfert from Bloomberg
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: and Balshoun has talked about this, pointed out that the
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: ETF industry will try to wrap almost anything into a fund.
• 16:39
  Speaker 1: If there's demands. So this was being proposed out by
• 16:42
  Speaker 1: bit wise, so much out, guys. We got some crazy
• 16:45
  Speaker 1: stuff here. A meaning is the volatility is there. The
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: volatility is there, and there's assets that could potentially play
• 16:52
  Speaker 1: into this to where there's always a way to make
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: money in these markets. So we'll cover this in much more.
• 16:58
  Speaker 1: Expect some big news being an unclarity. If you like
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: this video, hit like and subscribe, drop a comment down below,
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: and also join our free private member group. The link
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: is in the description.
• 17:16
  Speaker 5: Mm hmm