Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / NFC North Betting Preview

Transcript

NFC North Betting Preview · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, your go to NFL betting podcast.
• 0:13
  Speaker 1: We are parts of the Action Network family of podcasts.
• 0:16
  Speaker 1: I'm Brandon Kravitz, your host. Back at it with the
• 0:19
  Speaker 1: first lady of the pod, Kendra Middleton. On today's show,
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: the divisional previews continue. We stay north and we head
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: to the NFC Lions, Vikings, Bears, oh My and the
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Cheese heads to Hall of Fame game tonight. We rejoice
• 0:35
  Speaker 1: that the return of some version of football. I am
• 0:38
  Speaker 1: happier Kendra than Justin Herbert after a tough day of practice.
• 0:43
  Speaker 2: Don't bury the lead here. It is your birthday, Happy birthday.
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: I can't be the one that says it though. It's
• 0:50
  Speaker 1: like open the podcast, it's my birthday, but the NFL
• 0:53
  Speaker 1: did give me a gift. Carson Beck against Kenny Pickett tonight.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: It's the best part of my birthday every year because
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: as birthdays go, it doesn't change year to year. So
• 1:04
  Speaker 1: every year my birthday falls right around the Hall of
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Fame game, and sometimes when the moon is just right,
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: the Hall of Fame game will actually be on my birthday.
• 1:14
  Speaker 1: And so that's the best present that someone in our
• 1:17
  Speaker 1: world can receive, is the return of football. I do
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: have a bet on tonight's game, by the way.
• 1:22
  Speaker 3: Like a true circo, I know, I saw you log
• 1:25
  Speaker 3: it yesterday. I got the notification and you put in
• 1:27
  Speaker 3: our notes asking if I'm going to bet on this
• 1:30
  Speaker 3: game tonight, and I want to just because I like
• 1:35
  Speaker 3: the rest of us emma degenerate and want some action
• 1:37
  Speaker 3: because football is back.
• 1:39
  Speaker 2: I just I don't love the number.
• 1:41
  Speaker 3: But one thing that I did see is Carson Beck's
• 1:45
  Speaker 3: first drive for him to have a rushing touchdown, those
• 1:48
  Speaker 3: odds are pretty crazy plus four thousand if you want.
• 1:53
  Speaker 2: To be really crazy, which like even.
• 1:55
  Speaker 3: If you put ten bucks down on it, who cares.
• 1:57
  Speaker 3: That's a really good return. And I feel like they're
• 2:00
  Speaker 3: gonna try and send the kid out there, get get
• 2:02
  Speaker 3: his motivation up, get get whatever the cloud, whatever the
• 2:06
  Speaker 3: kids are saying these days, big ups for Carson back.
• 2:10
  Speaker 1: Does Carson Beck he is? Is he? Uh?
• 2:13
  Speaker 3: He charismatic sloth from ice age? Like he he bagged
• 2:18
  Speaker 3: a Cavender twins?
• 2:19
  Speaker 2: So I can't say no.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: Then the answer is probably yes.
• 2:22
  Speaker 2: Personally, I would never.
• 2:26
  Speaker 1: So my cell is gonna be on a much more
• 2:28
  Speaker 1: straightforward bet. I love betting my sides. I like the
• 2:33
  Speaker 1: Cardinals plus one and a half tonight. In six preseason
• 2:37
  Speaker 1: games since Dave Canalis took charge in twenty twenty four,
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: the Panthers are zero and six against the spread in
• 2:44
  Speaker 1: the preseason and you look at what they're facing. They've
• 2:47
  Speaker 1: got injuries already. Nick s Gorton's out for the year.
• 2:50
  Speaker 1: Xavier Legett went down with an injury in practice. Not
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: that these guys were gonna play in the Hall of
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: Fame game anyway. Both tackles on the offensive line are
• 2:58
  Speaker 1: missing in action. Canalis just wants to keep these guys healthy.
• 3:01
  Speaker 1: And Mike Lafleur is a new head coach. I have
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: a feeling he's going to take this game more seriously
• 3:07
  Speaker 1: than he should. So I'm playing in the flag Kendra,
• 3:11
  Speaker 1: first bet of the year on a stage.
• 3:12
  Speaker 2: Yeah, I gotta say, I like the look from you.
• 3:15
  Speaker 3: I would also if I wanted to get there, I
• 3:18
  Speaker 3: would be on the Cardinals because it seems like they
• 3:20
  Speaker 3: care and they have something to play for and the
• 3:22
  Speaker 3: Panthers just need to play it safe.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: Exactly, And I think that that will be the thought
• 3:27
  Speaker 1: process for Canalis. So if you want to be a
• 3:30
  Speaker 1: sicko like us, Carson Beck rushing touchdown Cardinals plus one
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: and a half. Let's make it happen in the window.
• 3:36
  Speaker 3: But if I do, what's going to happen is I'm
• 3:39
  Speaker 3: going to chicken out, right, I'm going to chicken out,
• 3:42
  Speaker 3: and it's gonna.
• 3:46
  Speaker 2: I want to say one more thing about betting.
• 3:47
  Speaker 3: The preseason, just because I think it needs to be
• 3:50
  Speaker 3: said now and again next week when we really get
• 3:52
  Speaker 3: into the thick of it. I think that this is
• 3:54
  Speaker 3: one of the best times of the year for people
• 3:56
  Speaker 3: to make money because it's an information game.
• 3:58
  Speaker 2: It has nothing to do with anything else else.
• 4:00
  Speaker 3: It is do you know who is starting and sitting players,
• 4:03
  Speaker 3: how they typically perform.
• 4:04
  Speaker 2: In the preseason.
• 4:05
  Speaker 3: As far as like a head coaching, I love to
• 4:07
  Speaker 3: sit people, I love to play people.
• 4:09
  Speaker 2: I love to get people's toes wet. Whatever. But the
• 4:11
  Speaker 2: big thing is here.
• 4:12
  Speaker 3: If you're a college football fan and not a huge
• 4:14
  Speaker 3: NFL fan, this is your time to make money because
• 4:17
  Speaker 3: you know the depth charts, you know the players, and
• 4:19
  Speaker 3: you know the guys who are going to be on
• 4:20
  Speaker 3: the fringes of rosters who need to get their feet wet.
• 4:22
  Speaker 3: It is the best time of year for people like that.
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: Absolutely, we laugh about the Djen stuff. But if there
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: are real angles to be had in the preseason. Now,
• 4:31
  Speaker 1: if you're just firing bets because football is back, then
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: that's Djen stuff. But if you're betting the preseason with
• 4:37
  Speaker 1: real angles, what's the difference in having a preseason edge
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: versus a Week three and edge is and edge. So
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: if you got one, go ahead and make it happen.
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: Sean Kerner's quarterback charts are out for every quarterback in
• 4:49
  Speaker 1: the NFL, so that goes for the scrubs that we're
• 4:52
  Speaker 1: going to see in the preseason as well. Go and
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: check that out at actionnetwork dot com. We have some
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: other news to get to. Jonathan Taylor signed an extension
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: with the Colts two years, forty four million dollars. Forty
• 5:03
  Speaker 1: seven or thirty nine of that is guaranteed. He led
• 5:07
  Speaker 1: the NFL in rush attempts and rushing touchdowns last season.
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: He's been healthy the last two years. The thing that's
• 5:12
  Speaker 1: odd for me is that he got thirty nine guaranteed
• 5:16
  Speaker 1: versus fifty one for Bejon Robinson. It's not like Jonathan
• 5:20
  Speaker 1: Taylor's an old man. He's twenty seven years old. I'm
• 5:23
  Speaker 1: surprised that he bagged that much less cash than Bijon did.
• 5:28
  Speaker 3: I'm not because I think that this is the perfect
• 5:31
  Speaker 3: deal for both sides. Right, Like, he's twenty seven, a
• 5:34
  Speaker 3: twenty nine year old running back. That's about the time
• 5:36
  Speaker 3: you want to cut him loose because we know that
• 5:38
  Speaker 3: that thirty age is really where the drop off is
• 5:41
  Speaker 3: so significant, which is why we're having the conversations that
• 5:43
  Speaker 3: we're having about Christian McCaffrey this year. And I gotta
• 5:46
  Speaker 3: be honest, I think it's like the perfect timeline, not
• 5:48
  Speaker 3: just for him to be able to maybe find another
• 5:50
  Speaker 3: deal at the end of his career, but that's probably
• 5:53
  Speaker 3: when the Colts are gonna have to, you know, figure
• 5:56
  Speaker 3: out what's going on with Daniel Jones, overhaul this roster,
• 5:59
  Speaker 3: and really make some decisions. So I think it's the
• 6:01
  Speaker 3: perfect kind of deal for both sides. He probably wants
• 6:04
  Speaker 3: some continuity, and to be honest, it's gonna be a
• 6:08
  Speaker 3: make or break situation for him, like the way that
• 6:11
  Speaker 3: this quarterback situation shaping out for them, and through the season,
• 6:14
  Speaker 3: he's gonna be a huge part of this offense and
• 6:16
  Speaker 3: probably the only thing that's gonna keep them in any
• 6:19
  Speaker 3: sort of playoff contention while they figure out when Daniel
• 6:23
  Speaker 3: Jones will be healthier, whatever, if this is going to
• 6:25
  Speaker 3: be a playoff team at all, which considering people love
• 6:28
  Speaker 3: to shit on the AFC South and I know that
• 6:30
  Speaker 3: this isn't an AFC South episode, but it's gonna be
• 6:32
  Speaker 3: a tough division. I like the deal for both sides.
• 6:34
  Speaker 3: I think it makes a lot of sense. And he's
• 6:36
  Speaker 3: just he's not Beijon caliber anymore. If he were three
• 6:39
  Speaker 3: years younger, I'd say, yeah, they should be making the
• 6:41
  Speaker 3: same amount of money. But you gotta recognize the age
• 6:46
  Speaker 3: with a running back.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: Unfortunately, it's amazing we treat twenty seven year old running
• 6:50
  Speaker 1: backs like they're My age is just turned forty one.
• 6:52
  Speaker 1: By the way, for those keeping track at home, and
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: also for those watching on YouTube, if I look a
• 6:57
  Speaker 1: little grayer or whiter today, because I guess forty one
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: comes with not knowing how to work technology anymore. Because
• 7:04
  Speaker 1: my camera doesn't work, so now I'm working on the
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: laptop camera and I don't know how to change the settings.
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: I go from touching up my appearance and then it
• 7:13
  Speaker 1: looks like I'm wearing lipstick. So we're just going to
• 7:16
  Speaker 1: leave that alone. But I want a part of me
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: wants to fight you on the Jonathan Taylor not as
• 7:21
  Speaker 1: good as Bejon thing. But let's table that for now.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: We have a new home for Stefan Diggs as well.
• 7:26
  Speaker 1: Move over Brandon Ayuk, make way for Stefan Diggs to
• 7:30
  Speaker 1: the Washington Commanders. This is huge for Washington. They need
• 7:34
  Speaker 1: somebody to pair with Terry McLaurin. The question is, and
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: you would know this better than anybody, how much does
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: he have left?
• 7:42
  Speaker 3: I don't think it's how much he has left. I
• 7:46
  Speaker 3: think it's physically. I think it's how much does he
• 7:49
  Speaker 3: want to focus on football.
• 7:51
  Speaker 2: I gotta be honest.
• 7:52
  Speaker 3: I think that that's the thing with him because Mike
• 7:55
  Speaker 3: Rabel praised him last year for being a leader in
• 7:57
  Speaker 3: the locker room, and I just I don't know if
• 8:00
  Speaker 3: I believe that, considering everything that happened and unfolded with
• 8:03
  Speaker 3: him during the off season and his on and off relationships.
• 8:06
  Speaker 3: And I don't know if you guys have seen who
• 8:08
  Speaker 3: he was photographed with recently, the two people he was
• 8:11
  Speaker 3: photographed recently with, I think he's distracted from football.
• 8:14
  Speaker 2: I think physically, yes.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: I did, I didn't. Can he tell me?
• 8:19
  Speaker 2: Taylor? Frankie Paul and Jeffree Starr.
• 8:22
  Speaker 3: Oh, all right, Yeah, So I don't know how much
• 8:26
  Speaker 3: focus he has on football at the moment. I think
• 8:29
  Speaker 3: that that's the bigger concern for Commanders fans, But I
• 8:32
  Speaker 3: do think it's a good signing for them. It's affordability.
• 8:34
  Speaker 3: He was good enough last year. I would say he
• 8:36
  Speaker 3: was above average as an NFL receiver. The age is
• 8:39
  Speaker 3: a little bit of a question mark for me, but
• 8:41
  Speaker 3: it's more so how much effort does he want.
• 8:43
  Speaker 2: To put into football right now?
• 8:44
  Speaker 3: But if I'm a Commander's fan, I'm still a little
• 8:47
  Speaker 3: iffy on Jayden Daniels. I feel like we are in
• 8:50
  Speaker 3: the CJ. Stroud who will he be camp with him?
• 8:54
  Speaker 3: But it does help Terry McLaurin out a lot. But
• 8:57
  Speaker 3: once again, I'm gonna double down on my Luke McCaffrey tape.
• 9:00
  Speaker 3: That might be the guy to watch in this offense.
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: They need somebody else to step up. We know McLaurin
• 9:05
  Speaker 1: is good. They got Chicka Konku to add to the mix.
• 9:08
  Speaker 1: And to the point of Stefan Diggs, who I guess
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: is a freak, they chose they chose him over Brandon Ayuk.
• 9:16
  Speaker 1: It was just like, what version of crazy, are you
• 9:19
  Speaker 1: okay with? And I don't begrudge him for that. Also,
• 9:22
  Speaker 1: second year off of an ACL usually the more productive season,
• 9:25
  Speaker 1: so could be a good one for Stefan Diggs. I
• 9:29
  Speaker 1: kind of just want to breeze past the fact that
• 9:33
  Speaker 1: Jalen Walker, the edge rusher for the Falcons, towards.
• 9:36
  Speaker 2: ACL and it's your birthday.
• 9:40
  Speaker 1: I'm so frustrated. I actually bought out of my Falcons
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: divisional future ticket. Not the super Bowl one that one
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: can ride into the sunset, but the divisional future ticket.
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: I bought out of and then bought it back at
• 9:53
  Speaker 1: just a lower price for myself, a lower unit size,
• 9:57
  Speaker 1: because I still believe it. I I leave in my
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: Falcons love I have and I've put it out there
• 10:03
  Speaker 1: enough now that whether I like it or not, this
• 10:06
  Speaker 1: has become part of my football brand for twenty twenty six.
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: But it does take a hit. Part of the reason
• 10:12
  Speaker 1: I like the Falcons is that they can get after
• 10:14
  Speaker 1: the passer and Jalen Walker not being on the field
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: hurts that tremendously. But we will save that for our
• 10:21
  Speaker 1: NFC South preview. And Kendrick's right, it's my birthday and
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: I don't want to be depressed. The only division in
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: the NFL without any coaching turnover. Any guesses which one
• 10:32
  Speaker 1: it was? Kendra will trivia for you to get the
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: NFC North previews started.
• 10:37
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna guess it was the NFC North.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: YEA nailed it, returning Ben Johnson, Dan Campbell, Kevin O'Connell
• 10:44
  Speaker 1: and Matt Lafour. If you go through every other division
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: in football, there is at least one coaching change for
• 10:49
  Speaker 1: one of the teams in the other divisions. So I
• 10:52
  Speaker 1: guess I have to ask myself and us this question,
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: is this the best coach division in football? Or is
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: there a better?
• 11:00
  Speaker 3: Oh?
• 11:01
  Speaker 2: Good question? I think so.
• 11:04
  Speaker 3: I I'm sitting here racking my brain, and when there's
• 11:08
  Speaker 3: turnover in other divisions, it's hard to say.
• 11:10
  Speaker 2: Otherwise.
• 11:12
  Speaker 1: The other option would be, I think would be the
• 11:14
  Speaker 1: AFC West if you Sean Payton, I mean, Andy Reid
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: is a legend, and Jim Harball has had a lot
• 11:23
  Speaker 1: of success in the NFL and other places. And then
• 11:26
  Speaker 1: they have Clint Kobiak. We haven't seen him as a
• 11:28
  Speaker 1: head coach yet, but that would be the other one.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: But yeah, I mean, if you're talking stability and coach
• 11:33
  Speaker 1: of the year, guys.
• 11:34
  Speaker 3: And all of that continuity matters definitely has a case
• 11:39
  Speaker 3: for it.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: So we asked this question in the last episode, and
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: maybe this becomes a persistent theme. Where does this division
• 11:45
  Speaker 1: rank for you and the intrigue hierarchy? I uh, I
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: don't know if I'm overrating the first two that we're
• 11:51
  Speaker 1: talking about because it's the first two that we've done,
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: but I was big on the AFC North and I'm
• 11:56
  Speaker 1: big on the NFC North too. I think the North
• 11:58
  Speaker 1: divisions for me both rank inside of the top three.
• 12:02
  Speaker 3: Okay, I think people are gonna be really pissed when
• 12:05
  Speaker 3: I say this, But from an intrigue perspective, you guys
• 12:08
  Speaker 3: know that I loki love shitty football. I'm most excited,
• 12:12
  Speaker 3: weirdly for the NFC South.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: Love. That's the grimiest answer that you could possibly cor.
• 12:19
  Speaker 2: I know, which fits me quite well. I love shitty
• 12:21
  Speaker 2: football and the way that that division ended last year.
• 12:25
  Speaker 3: I think that it is going to be just dumb
• 12:28
  Speaker 3: and fun, so weirdly I am.
• 12:30
  Speaker 2: The most excited for that.
• 12:31
  Speaker 3: But as far as like the best football grinded out
• 12:34
  Speaker 3: end of the season Week eighteen is gonna matter, I
• 12:37
  Speaker 3: think that this is obviously the answer, but because I'm
• 12:40
  Speaker 3: disgusting personally, I think it's.
• 12:42
  Speaker 2: The NFC cell.
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: Well, that one's coming up next week, so we'll have
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: a lot of time to dive into that. The start
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: with the Lions. They went from first to worst in
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: twenty twenty five, but they were rewarded for it. At
• 12:55
  Speaker 1: the very least. They have the number one strength of
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: schedule in terms of favorability. They have a new offensive
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: coordinator and Drew Petsing from Arizona, who should help to
• 13:03
  Speaker 1: unlock Sam Laporta. He was the OC that helped Trey
• 13:06
  Speaker 1: McBride usher in a record breaking season. They're over under
• 13:10
  Speaker 1: said at ten and a half. They're super talented. They
• 13:13
  Speaker 1: have an easy schedule, so that's how you get there.
• 13:15
  Speaker 1: Juice to the over at minus one fifteen. Are you
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: back in on the Lions.
• 13:22
  Speaker 2: Yeah.
• 13:22
  Speaker 3: I have been giving out a future which we'll get
• 13:25
  Speaker 3: to later in the episode on the Lions for quite
• 13:27
  Speaker 3: some time now. They're my favorite team in this division.
• 13:30
  Speaker 3: The continuity is right there for me. I think that
• 13:32
  Speaker 3: that's the big thing. I don't expect them to be
• 13:35
  Speaker 3: a Super Bowl candidate, just because once again I think
• 13:38
  Speaker 3: Dan Campbell kind of hinders them at times, but they
• 13:40
  Speaker 3: really rally behind him, which I think is important. I
• 13:43
  Speaker 3: was doing my research for the show and I think
• 13:44
  Speaker 3: I'm going to say thirty seven times, Oh my god,
• 13:46
  Speaker 3: Alex Azeloni is now on the Tampa Bay Box at
• 13:49
  Speaker 3: least until like week five. There's always like a few
• 13:52
  Speaker 3: players that I do that with and I'm like, holy shit,
• 13:54
  Speaker 3: they're on this team now, that's gonna be one of them.
• 13:57
  Speaker 3: I like the Isaiah Pacheco edition, and they're playing, my opinion,
• 14:00
  Speaker 3: the easiest schedule in football. I don't know how I
• 14:02
  Speaker 3: feel about ten and a half, just because it feels
• 14:04
  Speaker 3: a little heavy, considering this division is just going to
• 14:06
  Speaker 3: beat up on each other. We can talk about that
• 14:08
  Speaker 3: to the end of time, because I think that that's
• 14:10
  Speaker 3: going to be the.
• 14:11
  Speaker 2: Future of this division.
• 14:13
  Speaker 3: But I do I do love them to win the division.
• 14:15
  Speaker 3: I think the continuity matter is they have a really
• 14:18
  Speaker 3: good team. I don't think that they're a super Bowl
• 14:20
  Speaker 3: caliber team, but a division winner.
• 14:22
  Speaker 1: Yeah.
• 14:23
  Speaker 3: Like it's it's really do or die time for them,
• 14:26
  Speaker 3: and I think that they know it.
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: This is where I think I might be overrating almost
• 14:31
  Speaker 1: every team in this division. I think this is one
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: of the only divisions in football where I can make
• 14:36
  Speaker 1: a super Bowl case for everybody that's involved.
• 14:38
  Speaker 3: Is this exactly three team playoff division?
• 14:44
  Speaker 1: I think it's going to be. I can confidently say
• 14:48
  Speaker 1: that we will be having that discussion until the end
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: of the regular season. Will I helpe that way, Probably not,
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: But I think that we'll I think that we'll be
• 14:58
  Speaker 1: having that conversation till the bitter because somebody, somebody obviously
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: wins the division. You're gonna get a wild card out
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: of this division, and then somebody else is gonna be
• 15:06
  Speaker 1: in the hunt until the very end. But I'm not
• 15:08
  Speaker 1: high on the Packers. We'll get to them in a minute.
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: And the Chicago Bears are big time regression candidates. It's
• 15:14
  Speaker 1: just hard to do that year over year. And last year,
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: well last year they only had two, so I guess
• 15:20
  Speaker 1: this would be they're just gonna The problem is the
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: NFC West, because the NFC, yeah, really gonna produce. They're
• 15:27
  Speaker 1: likely to produce three as it is. I do wonder
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: if Isaiah Pacheco can take enough off of Jamiir Gibbs
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: plate David Montgomery was a really good secondary running back,
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: that whole Sonic and Knuckles thing, and I don't think
• 15:41
  Speaker 1: they're going.
• 15:41
  Speaker 3: To be that much drop off. I gotta be honest,
• 15:44
  Speaker 3: you might be right.
• 15:45
  Speaker 1: I mean, all you really need is a tough runner.
• 15:47
  Speaker 1: They can punish the defense and give Jamiir Gibbs a breather.
• 15:51
  Speaker 1: So it could be there's a reason why Jamior Gibbs
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: is the odds on favorite to win Offensive Player of
• 15:56
  Speaker 1: the Year. Your boy Tesla, though, could end up have
• 16:01
  Speaker 1: little breakout season. I imagine that you will be logging a
• 16:04
  Speaker 1: bed on him week one for an anytime touchdown.
• 16:07
  Speaker 2: I gotta keep the numbers.
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: It's gonna be long, I would think, but six touchdowns
• 16:12
  Speaker 1: as a rookie on sixteen catches. He had six of
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: his sixteen catches went for a touchdown last year. So
• 16:19
  Speaker 1: that's a guy. We're definitely gonna.
• 16:20
  Speaker 2: Be all over him last year. Man, I hope he has.
• 16:23
  Speaker 3: I My grandpa is rolling over in his grave right.
• 16:28
  Speaker 2: Now because my mom's family is from Wisconsin. She's the
• 16:30
  Speaker 2: only one that left.
• 16:31
  Speaker 3: They're all die hard Packers fans, all went to Wisconsin,
• 16:35
  Speaker 3: played sports there, the whole bit.
• 16:37
  Speaker 2: And the fact that I am like Lions, I know
• 16:39
  Speaker 2: that man is rolling over right now.
• 16:43
  Speaker 1: Yeah, they're fun too, and they are fun. One of
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: the things that dropped off, though, is that for the
• 16:48
  Speaker 1: fourth down conversion rate for them last year not good.
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: And that's been the bread and butter for Dan Campbell.
• 16:54
  Speaker 3: I was gonna say, I hate that, Like, Dan Campbell's
• 16:56
  Speaker 3: kind of a dumb ass at times, but I love
• 16:58
  Speaker 3: him for it. I don't remember I like you remember
• 17:00
  Speaker 3: the hard knock season that they had where he was
• 17:03
  Speaker 3: like going into the house and tripped over the doggate
• 17:06
  Speaker 3: for all his little tiny little like shitty white, crusty
• 17:10
  Speaker 3: dogs and like sprained his wrist and he was at
• 17:12
  Speaker 3: practice like thinking that he could like do enough push
• 17:15
  Speaker 3: ups to get over his sprained wrisk. Like I love
• 17:18
  Speaker 3: that mentality from like a football guy perspective, but when
• 17:20
  Speaker 3: I'm in the postseason, get him off the field, I don't.
• 17:23
  Speaker 2: I don't want him any get out, get out right.
• 17:26
  Speaker 1: And last year he took over play calling and it
• 17:29
  Speaker 1: kind of felt like it was I wouldn't call it
• 17:31
  Speaker 1: a disaster because their offense was still really good, but
• 17:34
  Speaker 1: it definitely.
• 17:34
  Speaker 2: Felt like them It has cost them games at times.
• 17:37
  Speaker 1: It's a rudimentary version of what Ben Johnson was doing.
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: So they're gonna have to find a way to overcome that.
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: That fourth down conversion rate I was talking about fifty
• 17:45
  Speaker 1: eight percent last season. That was fourteenth in the NFL,
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: and with how daring Dan Campbell is, you can't be
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: fourteenth in the NFL. They have to be top five,
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: which is what they've been in most seasons. With him
• 17:58
  Speaker 1: best case scenario for the Lions, I think they're good
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: enough to make it to the super Bowl. It sounds
• 18:02
  Speaker 1: like you think the wall for them might be hit
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: a little sooner than that.
• 18:05
  Speaker 3: I think maybe an NFC championship game is their ceiling.
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: Let's fill in the blank for the Lions. Then we'll
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: move to the Packers. If the Lions don't win the division,
• 18:15
  Speaker 1: and you're wrong about this, it's because of blank.
• 18:19
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna say, Dan Campbell, I think that if they
• 18:22
  Speaker 3: don't win the division, make it to the playoffs and
• 18:25
  Speaker 3: have at least a playoff win this year, he's out.
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: I think it's the defense. Their defense ranked last in
• 18:32
  Speaker 1: the NFL in adjusted games lost on defense twenty ninth,
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: against the run twenty second, and overall scoring defense. A
• 18:39
  Speaker 1: lot of that injury related, but they just don't have
• 18:42
  Speaker 1: a lot of depth there and they are way to
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: Aiden Hutchinson and huff Dan Campbell linebackers dependent and they've
• 18:51
  Speaker 1: got to find a way around that be a little
• 18:52
  Speaker 1: more creative defensively. Let's move to the Green Bay Packers.
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: A middle of the road season for the Packers last
• 18:58
  Speaker 1: year all in all, but if you go back to
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: the start of last season, my god, where we all
• 19:04
  Speaker 1: drinking the cheese? Okay, stuck, he was drinking the cheese. Whiz.
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: I was starting to buy in. After two games, people
• 19:13
  Speaker 1: printing Super Bowl tickets for them. They smashed the Lions
• 19:18
  Speaker 1: in the opening game, then they thumped the Commanders on
• 19:21
  Speaker 1: Thursday Night Football, and that's when everybody started going crazy.
• 19:25
  Speaker 1: Then they lost to the Browns and Joe Flacco, and
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: then they tied the Cowboys. So that's when the reality
• 19:31
  Speaker 1: of the NFL season started to set in.
• 19:33
  Speaker 3: Oh my god, I forgot about that, yes, staying up
• 19:37
  Speaker 3: all night.
• 19:37
  Speaker 2: Oh my god.
• 19:38
  Speaker 3: I was on the West Coast and it was still
• 19:41
  Speaker 3: so oh my god.
• 19:42
  Speaker 2: Yeah, holy crap. What a ballbuster of a game.
• 19:46
  Speaker 1: Bletch. A weird start to the season for them, and
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: it's a reminder for everybody that's listening and watching right now,
• 19:53
  Speaker 1: don't get drunk on these teams two weeks into the season,
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: because that's how they followed up. There was not any
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: team in the league that was more hype than the
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: Packers after the first two weeks, and then they lost
• 20:04
  Speaker 1: in Cleveland and tied the Cowboys.
• 20:07
  Speaker 3: Shit happens at five to forty five game two or
• 20:12
  Speaker 3: something else?
• 20:12
  Speaker 2: Serious?
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, correct. The big question around them is when
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: will Micah Parsons come back and how will he come
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: back off that ACL injury? Win totals at nine and
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: a half odds to win the division at plus two
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: twenty five, no chance. I'm taking the over on that.
• 20:29
  Speaker 1: In fact, I've already bet the under. That's my best
• 20:31
  Speaker 1: way to bet the Packers. I think this team's going
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: to drop off in a pretty substantial way.
• 20:36
  Speaker 2: I do as well I put in our docs.
• 20:39
  Speaker 3: Is there a single player on this offense outside of
• 20:42
  Speaker 3: Tucker Craft that makes you say wow?
• 20:48
  Speaker 1: Josh Jacobs sometimes, but there are question marks around him too.
• 20:53
  Speaker 2: I think that that's my answer.
• 20:54
  Speaker 3: Like the defense, I can really rally behind this defense,
• 20:58
  Speaker 3: but this offense is a little yucky, and in this
• 21:03
  Speaker 3: division you're gonna have to put up points.
• 21:05
  Speaker 2: And I am not.
• 21:06
  Speaker 3: Jordan love Truther, so I'm sure that there are some
• 21:08
  Speaker 3: people pounding their fist on the table for him. I
• 21:11
  Speaker 3: just personally am not one of them.
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: They need a breakout season for Matthew Golden, who they
• 21:15
  Speaker 1: took out of Texas in the first round. If they
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: get that, then that's a guy that I think talent
• 21:20
  Speaker 1: wise in college he wowed me, but that doesn't mean
• 21:22
  Speaker 1: that he's gonna wow us in the NFL and he
• 21:24
  Speaker 1: hasn't done anything yet. And then defensively, yes, they wow
• 21:28
  Speaker 1: me when they have Michaeh Parsons. They were a sieve
• 21:32
  Speaker 1: without him, and they lost their defensive coordinator to my
• 21:36
  Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins. Jeff Hafley is gone, they lost kway Walker,
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: they lost for Sean Gary, they lost Nate Hobbs, so
• 21:42
  Speaker 1: they're depleted.
• 21:44
  Speaker 3: And they're starting with a lot of injuries like the
• 21:47
  Speaker 3: Tucker Craft question mark. Micah Parsons obviously out, Javon Hargrave,
• 21:51
  Speaker 3: big question mark, Luke Musgrave big question mark on him
• 21:54
  Speaker 3: which already dealing with the Tucker Craft injury. Are you
• 21:57
  Speaker 3: gonna have Josh wild as you're starting tight end for
• 21:59
  Speaker 3: god knows like no, no.
• 22:03
  Speaker 1: One of my favorite bets also week one, and we'll
• 22:05
  Speaker 1: spend more time on this at a later date, but
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: taking the Minnesota Vikings are one point one and a
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: half point underdogs at home week one, I would.
• 22:15
  Speaker 3: Tease that up to say, I'm gonna have some ugly
• 22:17
  Speaker 3: bets week one.
• 22:18
  Speaker 2: Let me tell you, let's.
• 22:20
  Speaker 1: Get nasty, all right. Best case scenario for the Packers
• 22:23
  Speaker 1: is they win a playoff game because Jordan Love can't
• 22:25
  Speaker 1: do it one in three in the postseason so far?
• 22:27
  Speaker 1: Would you agree with that? Like, if they the best
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: that they could do this.
• 22:33
  Speaker 3: Year is I think they're gonna finish third in this division.
• 22:35
  Speaker 2: I gotta be honest, I do too.
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: I'm just you know, there's there's at least an opt
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: there's an optimistic version they are second in terms of
• 22:45
  Speaker 1: the odds to win this division. I disagree with that wholeheartedly.
• 22:48
  Speaker 3: But we're gonna look like idiots at one point about this,
• 22:51
  Speaker 3: I can feel it.
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: That's all.
• 22:53
  Speaker 2: At least's gonna be fucking m v P.
• 22:56
  Speaker 1: I at least wanted to put the the little bite
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: out there of us being like, if they could win
• 23:00
  Speaker 1: a playoff game that way, we'd be like go to
• 23:02
  Speaker 1: production and be like clip that shit at the end
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: of the season, all right, fill in the blank, Michael
• 23:08
  Speaker 1: Parsons comes back week.
• 23:10
  Speaker 2: What I'm gonna say week four or five.
• 23:14
  Speaker 3: I I think it's really going to depend how their
• 23:18
  Speaker 3: first couple of weeks go, because if they come out
• 23:20
  Speaker 3: and they look like shit, I'm gonna be like, I'm
• 23:22
  Speaker 3: sitting on this bench.
• 23:23
  Speaker 2: I don't want any part of this.
• 23:25
  Speaker 3: But if they come out rocking and rolling with a
• 23:27
  Speaker 3: good start to their season, I think he rushes back.
• 23:30
  Speaker 1: Okay, you're clearly not staring at the schedule right now,
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: because there's an obvious game that he's coming back for.
• 23:38
  Speaker 2: Okay at the Cowboys.
• 23:39
  Speaker 1: Yes, it's against Dallas Sunday Night Football.
• 23:44
  Speaker 3: No, but you can't have him come back for that
• 23:46
  Speaker 3: game because that's I don't think that you can have
• 23:49
  Speaker 3: him come back in such a big game.
• 23:50
  Speaker 2: You need to have him come back the week before, a.
• 23:52
  Speaker 1: Week before it is big two. They're they face the
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: Chicago Bears, so that yeah, but that's.
• 23:57
  Speaker 2: And that's divisional, which is huge.
• 23:59
  Speaker 3: But for him, that's like, I don't think that you
• 24:02
  Speaker 3: can He needs to get his toes wet for lack
• 24:06
  Speaker 3: of a better term, in a divisional game before that,
• 24:08
  Speaker 3: because if he goes out there and his balls to
• 24:10
  Speaker 3: the wall and gets hurt again.
• 24:12
  Speaker 2: Wolf are the means gonna eat you alive?
• 24:18
  Speaker 1: Start with Minnesota, then they go to the Jets. You
• 24:21
  Speaker 1: don't want to walk in the East Rutherford week two
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: of the season. Then they play my Falcons.
• 24:27
  Speaker 2: Honestly, the Bucks game.
• 24:29
  Speaker 3: I feel like that's even if he's not one hundred percent,
• 24:32
  Speaker 3: you get him some snaps. Send him out for the
• 24:33
  Speaker 3: Bucks game. Not divisional, They're probably not gonna be that good.
• 24:37
  Speaker 3: You send the guy out there.
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: Production has chimed in and said that this is easily
• 24:43
  Speaker 1: the best division in football. I think the best way
• 24:46
  Speaker 1: to bet the Packers is under nine and a half wins.
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: You can get that at plus one ten. This needs
• 24:50
  Speaker 1: to be a pod bet. I think we I think
• 24:54
  Speaker 1: we go on it. We go in on this one together.
• 24:56
  Speaker 2: I can't get there. It's the same.
• 24:58
  Speaker 3: It's it's the same rule that I want to be
• 25:01
  Speaker 3: over on the Tennessee Titans.
• 25:03
  Speaker 2: This year so bad, but morally I just cannot.
• 25:09
  Speaker 3: I like, there's dirty money, and then there is I'm
• 25:12
  Speaker 3: from Duval County and they like might shank me at
• 25:15
  Speaker 3: a game.
• 25:17
  Speaker 1: You think you get this is a beautiful bet, It's
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: it's the Packers under tough division, Gifford saying it's the
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: best in the NFL. We like these other teams.
• 25:28
  Speaker 2: I think there is one team that I hate.
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: So okay, all right, well maybe that's the next team
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: that we're talking about. Let's go to the Chicago Bears.
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: Ron coverman for Madden, I have a feeling this is
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: the one never a good sign that you're the cover
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: of Madden. Saquon Barkley. Last year we saw a fall
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: off from him. The curse is well documented at this point.
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: In reality, it's gonna be tough for them to improve
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: off of what they did the year before, where they
• 25:57
  Speaker 1: vastly improved the year over year one score games, wild comebacks.
• 26:01
  Speaker 1: They had six fourth quarter comebacks, that was the most
• 26:03
  Speaker 1: in the NFL. They led the NFL in turnover differential
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: plus twenty two. Second place was your Jaguars at plus thirteen.
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: That's how much better they were in terms of turnover differential.
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: That is just impossible to repeat. They are talented. That's
• 26:17
  Speaker 1: the reason why their win totals also at nine and
• 26:20
  Speaker 1: a half. They're juiced to the under at minus one
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: twenty divisional odds plus three h five not bad value
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: if you're a Chicago backer, I would just take them
• 26:29
  Speaker 1: to win the division. I would hunt on the over
• 26:32
  Speaker 1: are you in on year two of Ben Johnson?
• 26:36
  Speaker 2: I'm worried about Chicago.
• 26:38
  Speaker 3: The offense obviously paid their bills last year, and the
• 26:40
  Speaker 3: secondary was what kept them alive at times, But that
• 26:43
  Speaker 3: defense overall was awful and most of that secondary didn't
• 26:46
  Speaker 3: come back. They have a pretty difficult schedule, and as
• 26:50
  Speaker 3: I've reiterated, they continued to pull magic out of their
• 26:53
  Speaker 3: ass last year, and I don't think that you can
• 26:55
  Speaker 3: continue to do that or hope to continue to do that.
• 26:57
  Speaker 3: So I love Caleb, I'm rooting for him, but I'm
• 26:59
  Speaker 3: definitely expecting regression on this team because of the defense.
• 27:02
  Speaker 2: But the big thing is for me, talk about injury depth.
• 27:05
  Speaker 3: This team is on defense really injured to go into
• 27:09
  Speaker 3: the season, and that's what's gonna need to be the
• 27:13
  Speaker 3: biggest improvement for you. That defense last year was just
• 27:17
  Speaker 3: awful for them at times, and it was the reason
• 27:18
  Speaker 3: that Caleb had to continue to be a magician. So
• 27:22
  Speaker 3: I want to love this team because I love Caleb,
• 27:25
  Speaker 3: but I just this division's too tough. You've got too
• 27:28
  Speaker 3: many question marks on defense, a lot of young guys
• 27:30
  Speaker 3: that you're expecting to make huge impacts immediately on the season.
• 27:35
  Speaker 2: I just and their schedule isn't the easiest, but it's not.
• 27:39
  Speaker 2: It's not.
• 27:40
  Speaker 1: It's not easy the Chicago Bears this year.
• 27:45
  Speaker 3: When I say they're like sixteenth on the schedule, toughness or.
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: Whatever, much further down the board twenty sixth, and I'm
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: looking at Warren Sharp's football analysis. This is strength of
• 27:59
  Speaker 1: schedule based on forecasted win totals in the NFL. So
• 28:03
  Speaker 1: there's different ways to judge either. If you search online
• 28:07
  Speaker 1: for strength of.
• 28:08
  Speaker 3: Schedule, everybody's got a different opinion on it.
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: Exactly different ways to find that metric. But they're twenty sixth,
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: which sets I mean, that's pretty tough.
• 28:16
  Speaker 3: I think the thing that bails them out about their
• 28:18
  Speaker 3: schedule is that all the tough teams they play, there
• 28:21
  Speaker 3: is no I think the biggest thing to look at,
• 28:24
  Speaker 3: at least for me, when I'm grading strength of schedule
• 28:26
  Speaker 3: is are their pockets where they go through just gauntlets
• 28:31
  Speaker 3: of teams that they just cannot escape. There's no way
• 28:34
  Speaker 3: they're coming out unscathed. And I think that the best
• 28:36
  Speaker 3: thing for the Bears and the reason that I don't
• 28:38
  Speaker 3: think that their schedule is as tough as other people is,
• 28:41
  Speaker 3: because I can't find a pocket on their schedule where
• 28:43
  Speaker 3: that's the case.
• 28:45
  Speaker 2: Like, I think the most difficult stretch they're going to
• 28:47
  Speaker 2: have is.
• 28:47
  Speaker 3: A back to back of the Lions and Jags and
• 28:50
  Speaker 3: then at the end of the season finishing it out
• 28:52
  Speaker 3: in division against the Lions and the Vikings. I just
• 28:55
  Speaker 3: there's not a pocket of their schedule where I'm like, Okay,
• 28:58
  Speaker 3: there's no opportunity for them to get right for a
• 29:01
  Speaker 3: week or even a couple weeks.
• 29:03
  Speaker 2: That's the saving grace for Chicago for me.
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: Looking at their schedule, I think you're right. I think
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: there are. It's not like they don't have these gauntlet
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: months within that schedule. I'm curious with Evan if there's
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: some sort of schedule travel difficulty that maybe we're missing
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: as to why they end up twenty sixth on the ranking,
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: and maybe that has something to do with it. The
• 29:26
  Speaker 1: Bears defense, by the way, ranked twenty ninth in yards
• 29:29
  Speaker 1: allowed last year. They have got to get better in
• 29:31
  Speaker 1: that area. They tried in free agency and they add
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: Kobe Bryant from the Seattle Seahawks, but he's out for
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: eight to ten weeks with an injury that he's sustained
• 29:42
  Speaker 1: in practice. So that doesn't help. Caleb Williams simply needs
• 29:47
  Speaker 1: to dominate the simple too twenty yards or more. He
• 29:51
  Speaker 1: was fourth in the NFL in terms of completions completion
• 29:54
  Speaker 1: rate in the red zone when the field shrinks fifty
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: two percent. That puts him in JJ McCarthy territory. And
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: this is the issue that I have. You say you
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: love Caleb. I think we all love him at his best,
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: But Caleb Williams is the master of the difficult and
• 30:10
  Speaker 1: is like a moron when it comes to just adjusting
• 30:16
  Speaker 1: for the simple. And if Ben Johnson can figure that out,
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: we'll get a different Caleb Williams this year. I'm curious
• 30:23
  Speaker 1: to see if we have anything on that. By the way,
• 30:25
  Speaker 1: phill in the blank, Caleb Williams will be rng to
• 30:27
  Speaker 1: blank among quarterbacks at the end of the year because
• 30:29
  Speaker 1: he was tenth. According to I.
• 30:32
  Speaker 2: Think he's going to be ten again.
• 30:36
  Speaker 1: You got him slotted at the exact same spot. Does
• 30:38
  Speaker 1: that mean that we're gonna get like We're gonna get
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: like this some steady Eddy version of Caleb Williams where
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: he's not spectacular this year. He's just like no, exactly.
• 30:47
  Speaker 3: Because that's not the type of quarterbacks that he is,
• 30:50
  Speaker 3: which I think is his greatest gift and his greatest
• 30:54
  Speaker 3: downfall at the same time, is that he puts him
• 30:57
  Speaker 3: he and to be fair, he didn't even put himself.
• 30:59
  Speaker 2: In these situations last year.
• 31:00
  Speaker 3: It was the defense, but he didn't make anything easier
• 31:03
  Speaker 3: for himself.
• 31:04
  Speaker 2: I think that he almost is one.
• 31:06
  Speaker 3: Of these people who performed so well under pressure that
• 31:10
  Speaker 3: like he needs to be under pressure to perform to
• 31:13
  Speaker 3: that level.
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: That's the thing. He either ends up sliding up. There's
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: the variance of Caleb Williams. He slides up to top
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: five or he ends up dropping to twenty because he
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: just has a disaster of a season. I think with
• 31:26
  Speaker 1: Ben Johnson at the Helm, we're probably going to get
• 31:28
  Speaker 1: him a little bit higher. I would say we'll have
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: Caleb Williams around seven the seven range by the end
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: of the year. Let's go to the Minnesota Vikings twenty
• 31:38
  Speaker 1: twenty four. They won fourteen games, Kevin O'Connell won Coach
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: of the Year, They had Sam Darnold, and what did
• 31:44
  Speaker 1: they decide to do? Hand the keys to JJ McCarthy
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: and everything went to shit from there. Sam Donald won
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: a Super Bowl somewhere else, and Minnesota missed the playoffs
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: and their GM got the acts. They still managed to
• 31:55
  Speaker 1: win nine games, and that's where the line is set
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: for them this season. Under eight and a half minus
• 32:01
  Speaker 1: one ten on both sides, plus five ten to win
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: the division? Do you believe in the magic of koc
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: enough to buy in? On twenty twenty six?
• 32:12
  Speaker 2: Talk about a team that I hate this season.
• 32:15
  Speaker 3: I know that this has been a wanna be Darling
• 32:18
  Speaker 3: for this podcast for weeks.
• 32:21
  Speaker 2: I just I don't like Kyler Murray.
• 32:24
  Speaker 3: I think that he he's too little. I'm sorry, he's
• 32:29
  Speaker 3: too little to be a starting quarterback in this league.
• 32:32
  Speaker 2: And there is magic at certain points with him.
• 32:35
  Speaker 3: But talk about the schedule being the biggest issue here.
• 32:40
  Speaker 2: There is a stretch where I will give or take with.
• 32:44
  Speaker 3: The Colts because Daniel Jones might be back and the
• 32:46
  Speaker 3: rest of that roster.
• 32:47
  Speaker 2: I do like.
• 32:48
  Speaker 3: That is the first potential game of this crazy stretch
• 32:52
  Speaker 3: for them. Then they go on the road against the Lions,
• 32:55
  Speaker 3: home against the Bills, on the road against the Packers,
• 32:57
  Speaker 3: on the road to San Francisco, probably with the Falcons,
• 33:01
  Speaker 3: you can consider the Panthers how you want to, and
• 33:03
  Speaker 3: then they go Patriots, Lions again, Commanders, and then finish
• 33:09
  Speaker 3: out the season with the Bears and have the Jets
• 33:10
  Speaker 3: in between those two. That is a schedule with a
• 33:13
  Speaker 3: quarterback that I don't trust, despite how much I love
• 33:16
  Speaker 3: the rest of the roster. And I think that that's
• 33:19
  Speaker 3: the thing here is that, like there's it's easy to
• 33:21
  Speaker 3: love this roster when you take the quarterback out of
• 33:24
  Speaker 3: the equation, and people give Koc a lot of credit,
• 33:27
  Speaker 3: as they should. He is known as being the quarterback whisperer,
• 33:30
  Speaker 3: but I think that there was so much more with
• 33:32
  Speaker 3: Sam Darnold there than there is with Kyler Murray.
• 33:34
  Speaker 2: His ceiling was higher.
• 33:36
  Speaker 3: And yeah, sure you could talk about the you know,
• 33:38
  Speaker 3: memes of he's seeing ghosts with the Jets, but it
• 33:40
  Speaker 3: was the Jets, like literally the Jets. And I think
• 33:44
  Speaker 3: we're giving him a lot of credit. But if he
• 33:46
  Speaker 3: was truly this quarterback whisperer, I think that JJ McCarthy
• 33:50
  Speaker 3: would be a little bit higher, like more highly considered
• 33:53
  Speaker 3: here as like a potential starter. But also I think
• 33:56
  Speaker 3: that it's not fair that they're kind of throwing him
• 33:58
  Speaker 3: to the curb as quickly as they are, even though
• 34:00
  Speaker 3: I do think he sucks.
• 34:02
  Speaker 1: That's what the the eye test tells you, is that
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: JJ McCarthy isn't very good. He dealt with injuries in
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: his first year and didn't play, and then he was
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: still banged up last year, and and that held him out.
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: At times. We were getting brosmer reps.
• 34:17
  Speaker 2: Start with me.
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: Don start. I don't think he's gonna make the team,
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: by the way, Carson I think. I don't think Carson
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: Wentz has been thrown some darts at UH at practice.
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: But the troubling thing for me is that in looking
• 34:30
  Speaker 1: at the headlines that are out there in the conversation
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: in Minnesota is that it's a tight race in training
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: camp that if you look at some places, they'll say
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: Kyler Murray's pulling away. But there are some folks in
• 34:41
  Speaker 1: Minnesota that are saying that JJ McCarthy has been just
• 34:44
  Speaker 1: as good. And because he's already there and there's comfortability,
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: I guess his teammates like him.
• 34:49
  Speaker 2: That there's this Jefferson likes him.
• 34:54
  Speaker 1: I didn't say Justin Jefferson. There's a lot of other.
• 34:57
  Speaker 3: Justin Jefferson would shove him in a locker tomorrow.
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: I was actually surprised because I looked at what Justin
• 35:04
  Speaker 1: Jefferson has been saying about him, and he was more
• 35:07
  Speaker 1: of like just we're just gonna let the best guy win.
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: I thought he was gonna hit the podium and be like,
• 35:11
  Speaker 1: I'm ready to catch passes from Kyler Murray, but that
• 35:13
  Speaker 1: wasn't the case. So he's taking the captain mature approach
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: when it comes to quarterback. But apparently in practice guys
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: are responding more to JJ McCarthy, and we know that
• 35:24
  Speaker 1: that's the one knock outside of his size that is
• 35:28
  Speaker 1: on Kyler Murray is he's not really He's not a
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: leader type. That's not.
• 35:35
  Speaker 2: Video games. He should have picked baseball.
• 35:40
  Speaker 1: I do think he would have been a phenomenal baseball player.
• 35:42
  Speaker 2: But you can't. Don't. I don't, we can't, I don't.
• 35:46
  Speaker 2: We can't go there.
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: Kyler Murray's insanely talented, though, and if he's able to
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: unlock some of the best versions of him that we
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: saw in Arizona with the weaponry that Minnesota has, this
• 35:59
  Speaker 1: is why I do like Minnesota. This year. Justin Jefferson
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: Jordan Addison not suspended this year, adding Juwan Jennings, TJ. Hawkinson,
• 36:08
  Speaker 1: Aaron Jones, Jordan Mason. You've got a decent offensive line.
• 36:13
  Speaker 2: That was where I was gonna go the offensive.
• 36:17
  Speaker 1: Brian fred is arguably the best defensive coordinator in the NFL.
• 36:20
  Speaker 1: Maybe him and Steve Spagnola are known to be two
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: of the best. That's a lot at your disposal to win,
• 36:27
  Speaker 1: and to be the odds on at the odds bottom
• 36:31
  Speaker 1: of the division, to me presents some value. I think
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: if you're gonna bet Minnesota, I think you have to
• 36:37
  Speaker 1: go all in with them.
• 36:39
  Speaker 3: I think to a casual the no excuse with the
• 36:43
  Speaker 3: weaponry around, whoever is starting at quarterback is the easiest
• 36:47
  Speaker 3: thing to look at here. But if your starter is
• 36:50
  Speaker 3: gonna be Kyler Murray, I honestly probably would have rathered
• 36:53
  Speaker 3: them go more in on the offensive line because that's
• 36:57
  Speaker 3: where I think his talent shines. I don't know if
• 36:59
  Speaker 3: you remember that game with the Cardinals what two years ago,
• 37:02
  Speaker 3: where he had an hour and a half to throw
• 37:05
  Speaker 3: the ball and ran like a quarter mile across the
• 37:09
  Speaker 3: field and then ran in for a touchdown. I think
• 37:11
  Speaker 3: Kyler Murray shines when he has the time to one
• 37:15
  Speaker 3: see all over his offensive line, but to make a
• 37:18
  Speaker 3: decision whether it's going to be him or somebody else
• 37:21
  Speaker 3: the weapons to someone who just likes football on paper,
• 37:24
  Speaker 3: I get it. There's no excuse for whoever this is
• 37:26
  Speaker 3: going to be to not throw touchdowns to these guys.
• 37:30
  Speaker 3: But I think if it's gonna be Kyler Murray, the
• 37:33
  Speaker 3: offensive line was the better choice, and if it's gonna
• 37:35
  Speaker 3: be JJ McCarthy, the weapons are the better choice. I
• 37:38
  Speaker 3: really think that they did themselves a disservice by not
• 37:41
  Speaker 3: having a clear choice here, even though they do need
• 37:43
  Speaker 3: to give JJ McCarthy more time without chucking him to
• 37:46
  Speaker 3: the corner. I just the strategy here of prioritizing a
• 37:51
  Speaker 3: quarterback is my issue.
• 37:54
  Speaker 1: And I think this kind of goes back to your
• 37:55
  Speaker 1: preseason angles too. Both of these guys battling it out
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: is where we're going to see a lot of that,
• 38:01
  Speaker 1: and the vikings could end up being a good bet
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: when you get decent quarterback play throughout the course of
• 38:06
  Speaker 1: a game.
• 38:07
  Speaker 2: You know. The other thing for me here, I don't believe.
• 38:11
  Speaker 2: I don't I'm.
• 38:12
  Speaker 3: Gonna call bullshit on the guys rallying behind JJ McCarthy
• 38:16
  Speaker 3: because his time at the podium when asked about Kyler Murray,
• 38:20
  Speaker 3: he sounded like an L seven wienie.
• 38:22
  Speaker 2: And you know who sounded like an adult in the.
• 38:24
  Speaker 3: Room, Kyler Murray. I don't believe any kind of any
• 38:28
  Speaker 3: bull crap about people rallying behind JJ McCarthy because he
• 38:32
  Speaker 3: sounds like a teenage boy.
• 38:34
  Speaker 1: I was just as surprised as you are. I am
• 38:37
  Speaker 1: just relaying the information that my research.
• 38:40
  Speaker 3: I think that they're just I listen, we both work
• 38:43
  Speaker 3: in these markets.
• 38:44
  Speaker 2: We know how this works.
• 38:45
  Speaker 3: One either somebody's pumping his tires because he's giving them
• 38:49
  Speaker 3: info and leads or whatever. Or two they're trying to
• 38:52
  Speaker 3: help the confidence of the kid. Because you can't tell
• 38:54
  Speaker 3: me that those.
• 38:55
  Speaker 2: Are adults in the room.
• 38:56
  Speaker 3: Those are guys who have been around football for a
• 38:58
  Speaker 3: long time, and I don't think that they take well
• 39:00
  Speaker 3: to a guy acting like that at the podium.
• 39:03
  Speaker 1: So the specifically some of the reactions and the response
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: that I've seen on that is that JJ McCarthy is
• 39:11
  Speaker 1: just simply more of that fiery celebrate with his teammates
• 39:16
  Speaker 1: guy where he's gonna run up to the wide receivers,
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: chess bomb, high five and all of that, and Kyler's
• 39:22
  Speaker 1: just kind of like goes about his business, and so
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: it looks like they like JJ Moore than Kyler. How
• 39:27
  Speaker 1: much that factors into the quarterback competition, that's just not
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: information that we're privy to fill in the blank. If
• 39:34
  Speaker 1: the quarterback position is a flop for the second year
• 39:37
  Speaker 1: in a row, JJ McCarthy will or no, let's go,
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: Justin Jefferson will blank. If the quarterback position is a disaster,
• 39:47
  Speaker 1: Justin Jefferson will blank at the end of the year.
• 39:49
  Speaker 3: I don't even think we're gonna have to wait till
• 39:51
  Speaker 3: the end of the year. I think he's gonna be like,
• 39:52
  Speaker 3: get me the fuck off this team right now by
• 39:55
  Speaker 3: week eight.
• 39:56
  Speaker 1: The obvious answer on how Justin Jefferson should handle that.
• 40:00
  Speaker 3: My question that I put in our notes is KOC
• 40:04
  Speaker 3: safe if this is a disaster.
• 40:07
  Speaker 1: That was another thing I was surprised about as I
• 40:09
  Speaker 1: was looking into the fan reaction of Kevin O'Connell. I
• 40:13
  Speaker 1: was watching one of his press conferences, and you do
• 40:16
  Speaker 1: have to take this with a grain of salt. It
• 40:17
  Speaker 1: was YouTube comments, but there are people calling for his job. Yeah,
• 40:24
  Speaker 1: I know it's on YouTube. And by the way, so
• 40:26
  Speaker 1: I'm going, well, let's say that again.
• 40:29
  Speaker 2: Twitter as well.
• 40:31
  Speaker 1: Yeah, so well, and I would take if we're judging
• 40:34
  Speaker 1: like where's where are the this? Where does the cesspool live?
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: In terms of commentary, I actually think Twitter is a
• 40:39
  Speaker 1: step above you Twitter.
• 40:43
  Speaker 2: Reddit probably sandwiched in the middle.
• 40:45
  Speaker 1: I've read very sane analysis on Reddit. I love the
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: creative questioning Reddit. I'm going through all thirty two teams.
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: I'm just watching press conferences in my free time of
• 40:56
  Speaker 1: different coaches. Kevin O'Connell gets the award for word salad
• 41:01
  Speaker 1: in a press conference. The guy doesn't say anything. It
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: was impossible to make it through a press conference, but
• 41:08
  Speaker 1: I was reading the comments and people calling for his job,
• 41:10
  Speaker 1: Like you're talking about Kevin O'Connell. I view him as
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: one of the best coaches in the NFL. But it's
• 41:17
  Speaker 1: amazing how fans will turn on a guy the second
• 41:20
  Speaker 1: that there's any sort of struggle. They won fourteen games
• 41:24
  Speaker 1: a couple of years ago with Sam Darnold. He has
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: reborn quarterbacks. I would give the guy another opportunity to
• 41:30
  Speaker 1: do that with somebody who's drafted first overall. But maybe
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: you're right, Maybe maybe Kevin O'Connell does end up on
• 41:37
  Speaker 1: a hot seat I doubt it, but it's crazier things
• 41:40
  Speaker 1: have happened. Let's plant our flags on the NFC North.
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: If you're already I am place your best mind in
• 41:48
  Speaker 1: a shut up.
• 41:49
  Speaker 2: I'm trying to plant my flag here.
• 41:51
  Speaker 1: Okay, you're really planning your flag in that deck. Best
• 41:54
  Speaker 1: bet in the division? What do you got?
• 41:57
  Speaker 3: I'm gonna triple, quadruple down, whatever you want to call
• 42:00
  Speaker 3: it on the Lions winning this division plus one seventy.
• 42:03
  Speaker 3: It's my favorite bet for the division out there. I
• 42:06
  Speaker 3: just from the continuity, from the fact that it's not
• 42:11
  Speaker 3: just guys who have been around the league a long time,
• 42:14
  Speaker 3: but I think it's like that peak of the career
• 42:15
  Speaker 3: where you have like the perfect balance of guys who
• 42:18
  Speaker 3: have been around young talent.
• 42:20
  Speaker 2: I think that they can figure it out.
• 42:21
  Speaker 3: As far as winning this division, I don't know beyond that,
• 42:24
  Speaker 3: as far as like the Dan Campbell aspect that we
• 42:26
  Speaker 3: talked about, but as far as just the strength of schedule,
• 42:31
  Speaker 3: the talent, I don't see how this is going to
• 42:34
  Speaker 3: go any other way. But I might be hating myself
• 42:36
  Speaker 3: by you know, the middle of the season.
• 42:38
  Speaker 2: Right now. This is how I feel.
• 42:40
  Speaker 1: I don't think it's a bad bet, but it's just
• 42:42
  Speaker 1: a little rich for my blood with how loaded this
• 42:45
  Speaker 1: division is. So I'm going to look the way of
• 42:48
  Speaker 1: I'm just going to try and extract the most value
• 42:50
  Speaker 1: out of a division that could be put in a
• 42:53
  Speaker 1: blender once again. We had last place to first place
• 42:58
  Speaker 1: a year ago and and I think things are gonna
• 43:01
  Speaker 1: get shaken up again in the NFC North. I'm betting
• 43:04
  Speaker 1: the Vikings at five to one. I've already logged this
• 43:06
  Speaker 1: in the app in Kyler, we trust you.
• 43:09
  Speaker 3: Putting your harder dollar on Kyler Murray is fucking crazy.
• 43:13
  Speaker 1: When has that ever? Let us astrike Indra top ten
• 43:16
  Speaker 1: to oh Line top ten Defense Coach of the Year candidate.
• 43:20
  Speaker 1: Despite with the YouTube comments say some extra juice added
• 43:24
  Speaker 1: to a loaded offense. Really good skill position players. They
• 43:28
  Speaker 1: have an all pro kicker too, that matters much more.
• 43:32
  Speaker 2: Well, we're gonna double down on justice for cham Little.
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: Anyways, boom year for the Vikings five to one, plant
• 43:40
  Speaker 1: the flag and uh and good luck to all out there.
• 43:44
  Speaker 1: The favorites will return next week. We're headed South AFC
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: South NFC South next week and catch it right here
• 43:51
  Speaker 1: on the Action Network YouTube page wherever you download your
• 43:54
  Speaker 1: favorite podcast. Shout out to the producers, David Payne Gifford
• 43:57
  Speaker 1: Gold five star reviews. People to see. Next Action Network
• 44:10
  Speaker 1: reminds you please gamble responsibly.
• 44:13
  Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,
• 44:17
  Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight
• 44:19
  Speaker 2: hundred Gambler