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Denmark Between Arctic Foes and Risky Allies · Diplomacy and International Relations

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  Hello and welcome to Diplomacy and International Relations by
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  Bastian Freiburg. It's great to have you with us
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  for another look at the forces shaping our world.
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  Great to be here. Before we jump in, just a quick
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  reminder, if you find these conversations valuable, please
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  It really does keep the lights on and gets you some extra
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  episodes. The link for that is right in
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  the description, so let's get into it.
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  We're sitting here in early 2026 and I'm looking at this pile of
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  reports and one word just keeps popping out.
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  Fragmentation. It feels like the geopolitical
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  ice is, well, literally cracking.
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  We're looking at a world where great power competition, you
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  know, the US, China, Russia is actively changing everything.
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  And for a small state like Denmark, that margin for error
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  it it's basically gone. The old guardrails we used to
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  count on are buckling. I think nothing shows that
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  better than the Intelligence Outlet 2025 from the Danish
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  defense Intelligence Service, the DDIS.
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  There's a line in there I honestly had to read twice.
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  I think I know the one you mean. In December 2025, they
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  designated the United States our oldest ally, the guarantor of
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  our security, as a potential security risk.
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  How does that even happen? How does our biggest ally become
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  a risk? It sounds shocking, right?
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  But if you really look at the trend, it's the logical endpoint
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  of an America First mindset becoming permanent.
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  It's a shift from an alliance based on friendship to one
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  that's, well, transactional. Yeah, so it's about realism.
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  Pure realism. the US is focused on its own competition with
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  China, and if our interests get in the way, we're just
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  collateral damage. So the big question for us today
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  is how does a country like Denmark navigate this?
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  And that's our mission. We're going to trace this from
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  the melting ice in the Arctic to the hidden threats to our power
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  grid and all the way to the trade wars in the Pacific that,
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  believe it or not, decide if we can keep the lights on in
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  Copenhagen. It's all connected.
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  Let's start up north, the Arctic.
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  Right. For years the motto was high N
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  low tension, but really the DDI assessment that air is
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  completely over, isn't it? It is dead.
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  The report makes it crystal clear.
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  Russian does not see the Arctic as a place for cooperation
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  anymore. They see themselves in a direct
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  conflict with the West. And they're adopting a what does
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  the report call it? A confrontational.
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  Yeah, and that means more ground forces in their NW modernizing
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  military bases, and they're also getting aggressive with maritime
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  law. Restricting navigation and
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  international waters. Exactly.
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  Tightening their grip on the Northern Sea route.
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  It's a power play, but it also shows they feel pressured.
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  And here's the thing, they're not the only ones changing the
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  game up there, right? China, The Intelligence outlook
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  says China is developing the ability to operate submarines in
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  the Arctic, and I'm looking at this data from their 15th Arctic
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  expedition, August 2025, two Chinese vessels near Greenland
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  calling it research. It's a strategic wedge.
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  They call it research, sure, but the intelligence community sees
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  it as dual use data collection. You know, mapping the seabed.
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  For future submarine operations. Precisely.
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  And what's really interesting is that Russia, feeling the heat
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  from Western sanctions, is actually letting China in.
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  It's a classic marriage of convenience.
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  Which brings us right back to the US If China and Russia are
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  getting cozy in the Arctic, Washington is obviously going to
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  react. And this is where that European
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  Policy Center report, it's a bargain.
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  The case of Greenland comes in. It suggests Washington might
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  just offer Greenland a deal that cuts Denmark and the EU out
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  completely. That's the nightmare scenario
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  for Copenhagen, isn't it? The US sees Greenland as a vital
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  strategic location that cannot fall under Chinese influence.
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  And they might just bypass us to secure it.
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  The report calls it predatory bargaining.
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  So what's the counter moves? The report suggests this
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  resource for security arrangement.
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  How would that work in practice? It's a pretty bold idea.
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  Essentially, Denmark and the EU would finance the development of
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  rare earth mineral extraction in Greenland.
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  We provide the capital. So we pay to develop the mines
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  so that Chinese companies don't, and in return the US agrees to
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  work with us instead of just going over our heads.
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  That's the gist of it. The recommendation is very
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  explicit. We have to exclude Russian and
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  Chinese companies from operating in Greenland.
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  But that only works if we put our own money on the table.
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  If we don't, Washington might make Nuke an offer they can't
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  refuse. A pay to play world.
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  OK, but the threat isn't just way up north.
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  Let's pivot to the home front. This other report assessment of
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  the hybrid threat to Denmark. It's all about threats below the
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  level of actual armed conflict. This is where things get really
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  murky. We're not talking about tanks.
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  We're talking about sabotage, interference.
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  DDS is clear that Russia is using these hybrid methods to
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  intimidate and disrupt. And the main target isn't
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  military bases, it's our infrastructure.
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  We saw a preview of this, didn't we?
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  The Baltic Connector pipeline incident back in October 2023.
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  Yeah, that was a huge wake up call.
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  It was, and this year Electric Report battle tested power
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  systems. It draws a really sharp line
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  between how different parts of Europe see this threat.
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  How so? Well, look at Finland and the
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  Baltics. They treat their energy
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  companies as part of total defense.
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  We hear that term total defense a lot.
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  What does that actually look like?
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  In Finland it's legally integrated.
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  Their National Emergency Supply Agency coordinates everything.
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  The utilities, the military intelligence, they're all at the
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  same table, sharing classified data, running drills together.
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  So the person running the power plant is basically part of the
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  national security system. Exactly.
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  But then you look at parts of Southern Europe and energy
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  security is still treated more like a corporate cybersecurity
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  problem. So where does Denmark fall on
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  that spectrum? We're catching up, but the
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  report says we have some major vulnerabilities.
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  We need physical upgrades to our substations and this is crucial
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  black start capabilities. Black start capability?
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  That sounds like something from a movie.
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  What does that actually mean for the power grid?
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  OK, so imagine the whole country goes dark.
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  The main power lines from Germany, from Sweden, they're
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  cut. You can't just flip a switch to
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  turn everything back on because the power plants themselves need
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  electricity to start up. Black start is the ability to
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  reboot the grid all by yourself. Island mode without any outside
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  help. It's like jump starting a car
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  but for the entire country. Exactly.
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  And the key take away from the report is that resilience can no
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  longer sit in isolated departments.
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  Your IT guy and your military planner have to be in the same
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  room because the attack is designed to hit both at the same
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  time. OK, so Russian pressure in the
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  Arctic, hybrid threats to our grid.
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  I want to zoom way out to the Pacific because I can almost
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  hear a listener asking why should I care about some
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  conference in Korea when I'm worried about my heating bill?
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  It's a fair question, but The thing is, in 2026 there is no
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  such thing as a faraway conflict anymore.
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  We've got this state of the region report from the Pacific
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  Economic Cooperation Council, Pay EC, and the mood there is,
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  well, it's grim. 88% that number just jumped off the page. 88% of
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  Pacific experts say increased protectionism and trade wars is
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  the number one risk to growth. It's massive and you have to
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  remember Denmark is a small open economy.
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  We live and die by a rules based global trading system.
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  If the US and China start putting up walls, the Danish
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  economy gets sick fast. The PSC report has five
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  priorities for APEC leaders. And I want to go through them
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  because every single one maps directly to Danish interests.
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  It's almost spooky. It shows how tangled the system
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  is. Now let's do it.
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  OK, priority #1 ameliorating protectionism, the big one.
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  Right. So on the surface, this is about
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  tariffs. But for Denmark, it's
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  existential. We're a shipping superpower.
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  A huge percentage of global trade is moved by a Danish
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  company. If the Pacific nations close
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  their doors, if the US and China decouple, global trade volume
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  plummet. And that hits Copenhagen's
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  bottom line directly. Yeah.
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  A trade war in the Pacific means a recession in Denmark.
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  It's that simple, OK #2. Lowering geopolitical tensions?
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  This is the strategic link. Think of it like a seesaw. the
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  US has limited military and diplomatic resources.
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  If tensions explode over Taiwan or in the South China Sea,
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  Washington has to pivot its attention to Asia.
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  Leaving a vacuum in Europe? Precisely.
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  If the US is busy in the Pacific, who's watching the
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  Russian submarines in the Arctic?
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  We were just talking about stability in the Pacific
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  literally buys a security in the Atlantic.
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  If Asia boils over, we're left in the cold with a very
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  aggressive Russia. That puts immense pressure on
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  European defense. OK, OK #3 boosting supply chain
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  resilience. Now connect this back to our
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  power grid. We need those black start
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  capabilities. We need to upgrade our
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  substations. Need hardware Transformers, High
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  voltage equipment? And where do the components for
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  that stuff come from that your electric report specifically
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  warns about choke points for this kind of gear?
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  A huge chunk of that manufacturing is in Asia.
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  If those supply chains bring because of a war or a trade
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  embargo, Denmark literally can't buy the parts it needs to defend
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  its grid from Russia. So a conflict in Asia stops us
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  from fixing the grid in Jutland, that is.
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  That's a terrifying thought. We could be waiting for parts
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  that are never going to arrive. OK, Priority four, managing
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  emerging tech and AI. This goes back to the DD ICE
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  report. They noted China is actively
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  using espionage to get technology from Danish research
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  institutions, and APEC is one of the places trying to set global
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  rules for AI. Without rules, it's the wild.
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  West and in the Wild West, the biggest guy wins without global
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  standards on tech transfer, which APEC is trying to build.
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  Our own Danish innovation is just ripe for the picking.
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  And finally #5 supporting the WTO.
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  The referee. This is the classic small state
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  dilemma. In a world of raw power, might
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  makes right. the US and China can survive without a referee.
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  Denmark can't. We need the World Trade
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  Organization to enforce the rules.
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  If the WTO collapses, we lose our legal shield.
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  So when we see APEC leaders meeting, we shouldn't tune out.
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  We should be leaning in the instability over there is a
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  direct threat to our security right here.
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  The Pacific and the Arctic, they're the same theater now.
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  Which brings us to the big question.
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  We've just painted this picture, a really dangerous, fragmented
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  world. So what can a small state
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  actually do? Or we just leaves in the wind.
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  Not necessarily. There's a great policy brief
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  from the GCSP in Geneva about the agency of middle powers.
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  It argues that countries like Denmark don't have to just pick
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  a side and pray. We have options.
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  OK. So what are they?
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  One they mentioned is hedging. Right.
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  Don't put all your eggs in one basket.
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  For us that means keeping our strong US alliance, of course,
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  but also deepening European integration, building new trade
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  links. It's about having options.
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  Then there's dominance denial. That sounds bit aggressive.
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  It's more strategic than that. The goal is to create a balance
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  of power so that no single country can control a region in
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  the Arctic. We don't want Russia to
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  dominate, obviously, but frankly, we also don't want the
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  US to unilaterally call all the shots.
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  We want a balance that protects international law.
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  And the last one is principal diplomacy.
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  Think of Norway or Switzerland. By maintaining A reputation for
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  being a rules based predictable actor, you can become a bridge
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  builder. Even enemies need to talk.
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  Denmark can be that honest broker which gives us influence
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  far beyond our size. But there are huge risks, aren't
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  there? The literature on small states
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  talks about the danger of betting on the wrong horse.
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  Or abandonment. What if we bet everything on the
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  US and then they turn fully isolationist or get completely
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  bogged down in Asia? We're left high and dry.
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  That's the fear that keeps strategists up at night.
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  And that takes us full circle back to that worst case scenario
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  with Greenland, the fear of being bypassed by our own ally.
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  Yes, the EPC report says Denmark has to prepare for a situation
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  where the US uses coercion. Imagine Washington threatening
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  tariffs or withholding intelligence to get what it
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  wants in Greenland. That is the very definition of a
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  security risk from an ally. That's a chilling thought.
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  So how do we stop that from happening?
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  The EPC's recommendation is that Denmark has to lead the charge
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  to put Greenland firmly on NATO's agenda.
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  We have to internationalize the problem.
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  So it's not just AUS Denmark issue, it becomes a NATO issue.
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  Exactly. It brings the UK, Canada,
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  Norway, everyone into the rim. It makes it much harder for
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  Washington to act alone, and it makes it harder for Russia or
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  China to make inroads. It binds the US to the Alliance.
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  Safety in numbers. You tie down the giant with lots
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  of small threads. You have to.
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  You have to make it in their interest to work with the
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  system, not against it. This has been a, frankly, a
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  pretty sobering conversation. We're in a world of systemic
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  competition. Russian jamming in the Baltic,
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  Chinese Subs off Greenland, trade wars in the Pacific.
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  It's all one big tangled mess. It is.
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  And if I could just leave our listeners with one final thought
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  to chew on, please. The DD is report warns that all
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  the great powers are putting their own interests first. the
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  US, China, Russia, they're all willing to bend OR break
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  international rules when it suits them.
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  We talked about our total defense model here at home, but
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  you have to ask yourself, is domestic defense enough If the
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  entire international system crumbles, If the rules of the
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  game just disappear? Does Denmark need to
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  fundamentally rethink its alliances?
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  Can we rely on old treaties in this new world?
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  That's a question that will definitely keep me up tonight.
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  Thank you for walking us through all of that and thank you to
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  everyone for listening. My pleasure.
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  If you enjoyed this analysis, please follow the podcast.
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  And if you have a second, a five star rating really helps us
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  reach more people who care about these issues.
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  It really does. Until next time, stay curious
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  and keep watching the horizon. Goodbye.