Latest / All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum / Episode 160 - 11/11/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

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Episode 160 - 11/11/24 - All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum · All Systems Go with Josh Appelbaum

0:18
Hello, and welcome to episode 160 of the All Systems Go sports
0:24
Betting podcast powered by Rhythm.
0:27
I'm your host, Josh Applebaum. What's going on, everyone?
0:34
Happy Monday. A new week begins as we roll
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through the early portion here of November.
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Holiday season will be here before you know it, but boy, do
0:42
we have a lot to talk about. On today's podcast.
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We're going to recap how the weekend went.
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Hope you had an epic Saturday like I did.
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I think you might have. But then also we're going to
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talk about all of our sweats for today, including a four pack.
0:55
I have two plays here on Monday Night Football with the Dolphins
0:58
and the Rams. I got to play on the total.
1:00
I have a lean on the side and I have a player prop as well.
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Hoping this kind of supplementary or lesser known
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wide receiver can go over the receiving prop for us tonight.
1:09
But then also we're going to look at 2 college basketball
1:12
games tonight. Couple obscure sharp line moves,
1:15
very low back games. One's a late night sweat, one's
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an added game extra game, but both have really sharp line
1:20
moves. Hoping that we can get a couple
1:22
winners here in college basketball.
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And then I know it's early, but I want to mention a couple NFL
1:27
games for Week 11 that have already seen some line movement.
1:30
And I'm thinking of one in particular that has a really
1:32
good system. Match already has a good move
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and I'm thinking we should grab it now before it falls too much.
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So talk NFL sharp report early one for Week 11, two plays on
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Monday Night Football and two plays in college basketball.
1:46
So 4 pack overall. Can we find a way to get three
1:49
of them? That is the goal now looking
1:51
back toward the weekend, not too bad guys.
1:53
Hope everyone had a good weekend.
1:55
Saturday was epic. 5 and O from our best bets on the pod here on
2:00
Saturday plus 4 point O2 units. We had a great winner there in
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the UFC biting with our guy Charles Radke coming through
2:07
with the TKO and then just a great day of college football.
2:10
I mean, this was the situation where I've told you guys before,
2:15
like my favorite angle in college football are very
2:17
heavily bet games nationally televised where ideally the
2:21
public is all over the road favorite.
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But the line moves toward the contrarian home dog.
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And we saw it come through epically over the weekend.
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Kansas with a huge winner, Ole Miss getting it done over
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Georgia and then Utah, even though Utah ended up losing the
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game by one point, they covered that number.
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In addition, we had Boston College, remember that was a - 1
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to -3 line move with a good rhythm system match.
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So sweeping the board on Saturday, that was fantastic.
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Sunday, two and two of our official bets -0.2 units.
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Houston Texans came through. I know people got a little antsy
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because that line tipped up to as high as 4/4 and 1/2, but if
2:58
you got a four, maybe even got a 3 1/2, they end up losing on a
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field goal, so you cover the number.
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It's good to see some of these primetime contrarian dogs start
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to bark. Then the Patriots.
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I should have also played the under, the windy under, but took
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Pats in the points, then up, winning the game outright pretty
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easily. So Patriots covered for us Jets,
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Soj, same old jets, sharp line move, they get rolled, what do
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you know? And then the Chargers under that
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was annoying because we were pretty much going to sail under
3:24
the whole time. And then there was a meaningless
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touchdown that absolutely meant nothing by the Titans with like
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a minute left to kill our under. Now you may have had an even
3:32
better day because if you tune into the live stream, the Sunday
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Sweats edition, which is myself and James Santor or our buddy
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Sam Wagman filled in a couple weeks ago.
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Yesterday my buddy Adam Rosenberg joined the show, so we
3:45
had a great hit with four and one with our top plays on the on
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the live stream. And you might have added the
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Denver Broncos. That was a late addition to me.
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I saw that Broncos line +98 and a half get down to 7 1/2, so
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that kind of fit the bill. Broncos were a late addition.
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I forgot to mention on Friday had another winning day.
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Three and 2 + 0.58 units. Remember, New Mexico came
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through, UCLA had San Diego as our revenge spot against BC.
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We lost with the Caps and the Pelicans.
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But since Friday, guys 10 and 4 + 4.38 units.
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Not too bad. Let's see if we can keep it
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rolling as we flip the calendar to a new week here.
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So I want to start off with NFL, of course, because this is the
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final game of NFL Week 10. Of course, big my football
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showdown here, and this one's interesting for a couple
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different reasons. So let's set the stage.
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I'll give you my lean on the side, I'll give you my official
4:37
bet on the total and then I'll unveil the player prop for you.
4:40
But going to this one, Dolphins at Rams 8:15 tonight, ESPN
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Dolphins come in two and six. They've dropped three straight.
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They just fell to the Bills 30 to 27, but did cover as a 6 1/2
4:50
point Rd. dog. Meanwhile, the Rams go in the
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opposite direction. They're starting to turn it
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around 4:00 and 4:00. They've won three straight, just
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beat the Seahawks 26 to 20 in overtime, covering as a 2 point
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Rd. favorite. So what are we seen across the
5:03
market here? Well, this game opened with a
5:05
very early number of LA -1 at home.
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Now, that number did not stick around very long.
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It immediately got bet up to -2 1/2.
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And again, some people ask about like, what's a true opener?
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I think there's a couple things you want to do when it comes to
5:18
football. There's going to be an opener
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that's available to bet pretty much coming out on Sunday when
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the games end. But then things there's going to
5:25
be an adjustment. So there's a true opener in
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terms of what it literally opened at, what you could bet if
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you were just ready to go as soon as it was posted.
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Then there's kind of the what I would call the kind of consensus
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opener that will kind of, you know, take take shape within 24
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hours. So, for example, Rams were -1
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after the Rams had a big win over the Seattle Seahawks and
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the Dolphins lost but cover to the Bills, that immediately shot
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up to -2 1/2. So you blink your eye, it was
5:51
already up to 2 1/2. But here's the thing.
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The public is all over the Rams tonight.
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The Rams are getting 75% of bets, but what's interesting is
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that this line really doesn't want to go to three.
6:01
The odds makers, despite this heavy betting on the Rams, they
6:04
don't want to go to three. That's notable to me because if
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you're getting 75% of bets, you're sitting -2 1/2, you
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should get up to -3 -, 3 1/2. That's normal movement, what you
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would expect with heavy lopsided betting in One Direction.
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Odds makers, theoretically we want to move the number toward
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the popular side, make you pay a more expensive price, but then
6:22
also simultaneously put a better number to the opposite side to
6:26
kind of entice some betting in that direction.
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That's not what's happened. This is pretty much stayed 2
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1/2, even got down to 1 1/2 one about 3 or 4 days ago.
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So the fact that everyone's playing the Rams, the line won't
6:38
go to three, you know, the true opener was closer to 1.
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I'm thinking the sharp value play here is Miami guys.
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Now, if you're playing Miami, there's kind of a couple things
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you're looking at one contrarian line freeze heavy betting Rams.
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You're contrarian and betting into the public by taking Miami
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line really hasn't moved off 2 1/2.
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So again, why isn't this line risen up as we mentioned
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further, despite being so popular, but then also classic
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buy low, sell high Miami on a three-game losing skid Rams on a
7:08
three-game winning streak here. Obvious play.
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Public says give me the Rams, but typically you want to buy
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low on a team that isn't playing well and sell high on a team
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that is playing well. That's kind of the ultimate
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value play that data minded betters are always looking for.
7:22
If you digging a little bit deeper here, the Dolphins are
7:26
Rd. dog 48 and 41 against the spread Rd. dogs this year 54%.
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Prime time dogs on the road are 99 and 78 ATS, 56% since 2019,
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but not a huge deal. But Ron Torbert, the lead ref,
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is 57% ATS to the road team historically.
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And I think if you're playing Miami, like my lean here is
7:46
Miami, I would look at it a couple ways. 1, you could buy it
7:50
up to three. You could wait to see if it goes
7:52
to three. If you want to buy it up, I
7:54
would look toward a book like DraftKings.
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Like right now they're -2 1/2 -, 120 for the Rams.
8:00
So Dolphins are plus 2 1/2 at plus 100.
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You could take Dolphins up to three at like -115 -, 120, You
8:08
could wait, you could buy it up. Or I think it's a pretty good
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teaser opportunity. So if you look at the Rams -2
8:15
1/2 or in this case, Dolphins plus 2 1/2, you can do that long
8:18
teaser. Miami plus 2 1/2 up to plus 8
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1/2. You go through the three, you go
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through the seven. That could be worth a look.
8:25
Tyree Kill, keep an eye on him. He's questionable.
8:28
Will he play? Will he not play?
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We're going to hopefully get some clarity on that shortly.
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But Long story short, to me, it's Miami or nothing.
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I can't play the Rams because it's a very heavily back game.
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Everybody's playing Rams. The line really hasn't moved.
8:41
You're basically, you know, buying a team at its highest
8:43
point. To me it's either Miami or
8:46
nothing. And I would mention, you know,
8:47
last, you know, yesterday, yesterday in all the yesterday's
8:51
results, you finally started to see that regression that we were
8:54
hoping for is data-driven contrarian better.
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So you finally saw dogs perform well, nine and three against the
8:59
spread yesterday. Unders were 8, three and one.
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Remember, we went through about a month of just favorites,
9:05
popular plays, you know, overs flying over the books were
9:09
getting crushed. No one's going to cry for the
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books. But I'm starting to again, get a
9:13
little bit hopeful here that we're going to see that, that
9:16
kind of vengeance from the dogs in the unders, which again,
9:19
today would be a dog play, a very contrarian opportunity.
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So I lean Miami. I didn't play Miami because I
9:26
like the total better. I'm going to give you my play
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here in a second, but I would go Miami or nothing and it's either
9:31
bite up to three. You could just take the 2 1/2
9:33
reduce juice if you want, you could tease them up, but to me
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it's Miami or nothing. I guess when you're betting on
9:39
sports, at least know when you want to get down on something or
9:43
layoff. That's always important.
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I'll mention this too though, on the Miami Feather in the cap
9:48
rhythm. Our friends at Rhythm are
9:49
predicting Miami plus 1.1. So again, even if you're only
9:53
getting 2 1/2, there's some value there.
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So I lean and I'm going to be rooting for Miami as a very
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unpopular contrarian Rd. dog. Now, my official bet on this
10:01
game is the under. I like the under in this one,
10:04
guys. The total opened at 50.
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The public sees, you know, Rams can put up points, Dolphins can
10:09
put up points. Public's going over.
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The over right now is getting 59% of bets.
10:15
But what happened with the total?
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It's actually fallen 50 down to 48 1/2.
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Some books even creeping down to 48 now I found a book fanatics
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that was offering 49. So it's still available right
10:26
now if you can get it. 49 kind of a key number of totals.
10:30
Key number totals are obviously not nearly as important as with
10:32
sides, but 49 you think about a, you know, 2623 game, 2722 game,
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you know, 2920 game. Like sometimes you do see that,
10:43
you know, kind of come into play here.
10:45
But fanatics I got the under 49. It's still available as of right
10:48
now, but even under 48 1/2, I'll play that under it's contrarian
10:52
public over yet totals dropping and then also high total unders.
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If you look at when the total is 48 or more this year, the under
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is 17 and 1357%. And if you look at prime time
11:05
games when the total is 47 or more, the under is 26 and 1563%
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since 2022. So with Miami, again, still feel
11:14
like that's the value play, but I like this under.
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I'm looking for a lower scoring game.
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By the way, rhythm is predicting a four 7.7 combined final score
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here or total, I should say. So with that in mind, I'm going
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with the under here. Guys, give me the under 48 1/2
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again, if you can find that 49, even better.
11:33
Now with my player prop, as we like to do, often times focus
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on, you know, players that aren't quite as popular, maybe
11:40
not your star receiver, but a backup or second or or third
11:43
tier player. And I landed on DeMarcus
11:46
Robinson, wide receiver for the Rams.
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I'm going to go Robinson over 27 1/2 receiving yards.
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Now, the important thing here is Fanduel's at 27 1/2.
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But this really goes to show you how these props can really vary
11:59
in terms of their prices at different books.
12:01
Like Fanatics is at 30 and a half, Caesar's at 29 1/2.
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Bet MGM is at 31 1/2. So that is a huge difference.
12:09
I mean, FanDuel over 27 half, that's pretty good value.
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Now this, I'm not going to do this, but you know, I'll be an
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epic middle. You take over 27 1/2 FanDuel,
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you take under 31 1/2 Bet MGM. He lands anywhere 2829, 30 or
12:23
31, you cash both. So that just came to mind.
12:26
But I'm just playing the over 27 half of FanDuel and I'll give
12:29
you guys a couple reasons why. DeMarcus Robinson, he has gone
12:33
over this number in six of eight games this year.
12:35
So he's six and two to the over. He had 6 catches for 94 yards
12:40
last week against Seattle. He's second on the team and
12:43
receiving yards. He's 3rd on the team and
12:44
targets. I know Puka Nakua and Cooper Cup
12:47
obviously are your star wideouts here and Jalen Ramsey's gonna
12:50
shadow one of one or the other, but that could really benefit
12:54
DeMarcus Robinson because if Nikua and Cup are kind of the
12:57
emphasis in terms of who want who Miami wants to stop on
13:00
defense, that leaves Robinson against, you know, second or
13:04
third or fourth, you know, tier cornerback, nickel corner.
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That's a good match up that hopefully Robinson can can feast
13:10
on. Also the game we played at a
13:12
Dome or closed roof stadium. So perfect conditions, high
13:16
total could expect some offense here.
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And then the cherry on top is our friends at Rhythm are
13:21
predicting DeMarcus Robinson 33.7 receiving yards.
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So again, second tier guy, you definitely try to get that
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FanDuel number over 27 1/2. Let's see if you can get closer
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to 34. I'm going DeMarcus Robinson over
13:36
27 1/2. Now over to some college hoops.
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I'll be honest, guys, there's a little bit of NHLA, little bit
13:42
of NBA tonight. Nothing really grabbed me.
13:45
But I did notice in college hoops, there were two games
13:47
that, you know, right up our alley.
13:49
And again, think back to Friday when we're talking about San
13:52
Diego against Boston University. Why was that important?
13:55
Because that's that angle that I love, that obscure added game,
13:59
extra game, the game that no one cares about, the public doesn't
14:01
care about. They can't even find it on their
14:03
app. Yet if you see a line move in
14:05
those games, they're very important because it tells you
14:08
that even though the public doesn't care about that small,
14:10
tiny match up, the wise guys do and they're moving the number.
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So the first one that caught my eye 6:00 tonight.
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This is on ESPN plus Stetson against citadel.
14:22
Now this one's interesting for a couple reasons.
14:24
One, it's an added game extra game game three O 662-730-6628.
14:30
So add a game extra games just to rehash.
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They're hard to find on your app.
14:33
You got to click added or extra that extra tab.
14:36
They're hard to find for the betting public.
14:38
Public doesn't care about these games.
14:39
Six O clock is kind of a weird start time.
14:41
This one is like really under the radar and it's very low bet,
14:45
but we're seeing a very sharp line move on Citadel.
14:48
This game opens Stetson listed as a very short one point Rd.
14:52
favorite. And now we flipped all the way
14:54
to citadel -2 1/2 - 3. So that is a huge dog to fave
14:59
line move in favor of Citadel. Now I'm going to go money line
15:02
here. I got Citadel at -150 again.
15:05
I'm not going to lay a three, some looks even might might be
15:08
creeping up to 3 1/2. But Leia three, win by one or
15:11
two and lose, win by three and push.
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I'm more than willing. Even though I don't want to pay
15:15
a more expensive price. I think it's worth it to get
15:18
that added protection and the sweat's so much easier knowing
15:20
that hey, let's just win the damn game instead of having to
15:23
win by four or more. But anyway, got it -150 at
15:25
FanDuel Bet MGM is -155 ESPN, Benton, Caesar's are like -170
15:30
so of course, shop around. But dog to fave line move in
15:33
favor of Citadel. They're only getting 45% bets
15:36
but 64% of dollars. So good low bets, higher dollars
15:39
bets split. Now I know both teams are one
15:42
and one and you know it's a small sample size, but through
15:46
two games, much better defense is Citadel.
15:49
Citadel's only giving up 6262.5 points per game.
15:53
Stetson's giving up 77 points per game.
15:56
So hopefully Citadel's defense can come to play.
15:58
And then also this is a bit of a schedule spot because it's the
16:03
second straight home game for Citadel and this is your first
16:07
true Rd. game for Stetson. So kind of a tough spot for
16:11
Stetson. Again, home Rd. to me is really
16:13
important in college. It's not as important in the
16:15
pros because they're adults, they've been there, they've done
16:18
that. Going on the road doesn't really
16:19
faze them. 1819 year old college kids going on the road can be
16:23
difficult, especially with the crowd going nuts and everything.
16:25
So I lean a lot on home versus Rd.
16:28
A little cherry on top here, Rhythm has a predicted final
16:32
score of 75 to 72.5 in favor of the Citadel.
16:36
So Rhythm has Citadel winning by 2 1/2 points.
16:40
We've gone dog to fave in favor of Citadel.
16:42
We got a good bet split. We have the better defense.
16:45
We have a good schedule spot. My first bet tonight in college
16:48
hoops. Added game, extra game, obscure
16:50
line move system match. I'm on Citadel money line at
16:54
-150 another very low back game. Late night sweat here. 9:30 PM
16:59
Eastern Time, North Dakota State and Cal State Bakersfield, both
17:03
teams again coming in one and one.
17:05
Now this is not an added game, extra game.
17:07
It's game 881882. But it's a very low bet late
17:11
night game. And again, with a bunch of games
17:13
today, I think there's like 30 games.
17:15
This is just not an important one that people are are caring
17:18
about. Also, it's going to be taking
17:20
place smack dab in the middle of Monday Night Football.
17:22
So, you know, who's going to say, oh, I really want to sweat
17:25
Cal State Bakersfield, North Dakota State on a Monday Night
17:28
Football game. No, this is just not a popular
17:30
play. But again, same theory.
17:32
Line moves in low back games are important because they're driven
17:35
by respected vendors. So this game opened at roughly a
17:39
pick em. Some shops open Cal State
17:41
Bakersfield -1 I saw one book that opened, I want to say North
17:45
Dakota State -1 So we'll split the difference.
17:48
Call it a pick em game, but all movement has been on North Cal
17:52
State Bakersfield. CS Bakersfield, they're taking
17:55
in the money, they open again, pick them -1 now they're up to
17:59
-3 so good sharp line move, good steam in their favor.
18:03
Now Cal State Bakersfield is predicted to win by one point
18:06
according to Ken Palm. So not a huge Ken Palm edge, but
18:09
this is a money line play for me.
18:11
Got him at -155 at FanDuel. But there's a big advantage
18:15
here, hopefully offensively. If you look at defensively, both
18:18
teams are about equal again through two games, both giving
18:22
up around 69 points a game. But Cal State Bakersfield is
18:26
averaging 98 points a game versus 82 for North Dakota
18:29
State. So much better offense, bigger
18:32
big advantage on the boards. They're averaging 48 rebounds a
18:35
game versus 37 through the better field goal percentage.
18:38
The other angle that I really like is rhythm is predicting Cal
18:42
State Bakersfield -4.3. So that's a pretty good
18:46
discrepancy. Again, at open pick them or -1
18:49
ideally you would have money lined Cal State when they are
18:51
close to -1 but even at -3 Rhythm's predicting them to win
18:55
by 4.3, so still a good advantage there.
18:59
And then also another schedule spot.
19:01
This is the first true Rd. game for North Dakota State.
19:04
This is the second straight home game for Cal State Bakersfield,
19:07
so add it all up here guys. Late night 930 game ESPN plus
19:12
line move has been all in favor of Cal State Bakersfield.
19:15
Ken Palm edge, Rhythm edge stat categories and schedule spot
19:21
match for Cal State. So I'm on Cal State Bakersfield,
19:24
I got him at -156 at FanDuel. So Cal State Bakersfield and
19:28
citadel on the money line under 4948 1/2 and one at football and
19:33
DeMarcus Robinson over 27 and half receiving yards.
19:37
Now before we finish up the pod, I wanted to look ahead to NFL
19:40
Week 11. And boy is the NFL season flying
19:43
by rarity Week 11. But there are a couple early
19:45
games that caught my eye. The first one is my New England
19:50
Patriots. Patriots at home against the
19:52
Rams. Now the first thing you notice
19:54
about this one is the immediate move was toward the Patriots.
19:58
Now in lookhead spot where the very early opener you had the
20:01
Rams on the road. It was a one O clock game.
20:04
That's important. I'll get to that in a second.
20:06
But open Rams around a -, 5 1/2 even -6 1/2 Rd. favorite.
20:11
And the immediate move once the line dropped and was available
20:14
to bet. All movement toward the
20:16
Patriots. The Patriots are now down to
20:18
plus 4 1/2. So the line has been quickly
20:20
adjusted in favor of New England.
20:22
Now the Patriots have a pretty good bet split as well.
20:26
They're only getting 33% of bets, but 53% of dollars.
20:30
So that's a really good low bets, higher dollars bets split
20:33
tells us the bigger, sharper wagers on the Patriots and the
20:35
points here. The other angle that I like is
20:38
this is kind of a tough schedule spot for the Rams.
20:40
The Rams, obviously you're playing tonight.
20:42
Now they are on a short week, have to go cross country,
20:46
California to New England. So long flight.
20:49
And then also on a short week, of course.
20:52
But then also, you know, this is kind of a classic spot for me to
20:55
fade these West Coast teams going east for 1:00.
20:58
Because if you think about it, you know, as a football player,
21:01
you operate on a body clock. You know, you have a, you know,
21:04
basically a car crash every Sunday.
21:06
You know, you're stiff, you're sore for two or three days, then
21:08
you start to feel better. And you're always programmed,
21:11
you know, for kind of that that 1:00 start with the West Coast
21:14
team going east, especially on a short week like the Rams here
21:18
because they got to play tonight, a 1:00 game in New
21:20
England, it's going to feel like a 10 AM start for West Coast
21:24
players here. So I always like fading West
21:26
Coast teams going east for an early kick off.
21:29
It just screws up your body clock.
21:30
You just you kind of feel off. You're maybe not ready to go,
21:33
maybe you're groggy, maybe you're jet lag, something like
21:35
that. So that's a way another angle to
21:38
fade the Rams. But then also you do have a dog
21:40
low total. This total is 43 1/2.
21:42
Patriots are getting 4 1/2 here. Also, if you want to tease up
21:47
New England plus 4 1/2 to plus 10 1/2, you're able to go
21:50
through a couple key numbers there with the seven and the 10.
21:53
And then other angle here is, hey, I'm holding the under 4 1/2
21:56
win total with New England. They had a big win against the
21:59
Bears and I'm starting to see this team kind of believe in
22:02
Drake May. He's playing really well.
22:05
You know, he's kind of showing himself to be a true leader.
22:07
I think the arrow is kind of pointing up on New England here.
22:09
So maybe my under 4 1/2 win total is in trouble because
22:12
they've now won three games. But I hope they can cover this
22:15
spot. And the line move is toward the
22:17
Patriots. I'm actually putting this in
22:19
right now. I got the Patriots plus 4 1/2
22:22
this Sunday against the Rams. The other game that caught my
22:25
eye, Atlanta Falcons, Denver Broncos.
22:28
Quick adjustment here and line move in favor of the Denver
22:31
Broncos. Now you saw this line open.
22:33
Look ahead as high as like Atlanta, favored by I saw some
22:37
look at it like -2 -, 3 -, 1 1/2.
22:41
The immediate adjustment was toward Denver.
22:43
Now we're seeing the Denver Broncos flip dog to favorite
22:46
very quickly getting a point or two now laying -1 1/2.
22:51
The Denver Broncos are also a 5050 bet split, so bet splits
22:55
are right down the middle. Public doesn't know where to go.
22:57
I know it's early in the week, public tends to bet later in the
23:00
week, but 5050 yet this line's going to Denver.
23:04
Denver's also getting 60% of spread of spread dollars.
23:07
So good low bets, higher dollars bet split and it's not really a
23:10
schedule spot, but I like Denver as a short favorite typically
23:15
with that altitude advantage in terms of the Mile High because
23:19
it's always tough for Atlanta, you know, lower sea level Dome
23:23
team going out in the elements to Colorado where again, you're
23:26
getting some some some rarefied air.
23:29
Denver Broncos are used to it. The Atlanta Falcons are not.
23:32
That's an advantage, especially as a non conference favorite in
23:35
favor of the Broncos. So I'm looking at Broncos here,
23:37
guys. I don't think there's any reason
23:38
to bet it right now unless maybe it gets up to two or continues
23:42
to rise. But still, this is going to be a
23:43
money line play for me. You could consider playing it
23:45
now. I would just hate to see maybe
23:47
some buyback and if it drops because we don't know where it's
23:50
going to go next. But if it comes back closer to a
23:52
pick, I don't want to be laying like -120 right now -125 if
23:57
within three or four days, maybe it's down to -115 So let's put a
24:01
pin in the Broncos. But looks pretty sharp early dog
24:04
to fave in favor of Denver. Now the big one, the most
24:08
heavily back game. It won't be as heavily bad as
24:10
the Sunday Night Football game, but 425 maybe it's an AFC
24:14
championship game showdown. Kansas City and Buffalo.
24:18
Now the first thing you got to know about this one is Buffalo's
24:20
favored by 2 1/2 at home. Why is that important?
24:24
Because the Chiefs would be a Patrick Mahomes dog play.
24:27
Patrick Mahomes has a dog 12 and one against the spread in his
24:30
career. Andy Reid as a dog, 68% ATS as a
24:33
dog in his career. So if you want to blindly take
24:36
the 2 1/2 with Kansas City, I can't argue with you.
24:39
Kansas City has been incredible as a dog, but I, I am leaning my
24:44
instincts toward Buffalo here because this looks like it's
24:47
going to be an epic fade. The trendy dog play now.
24:49
Right now it's 5050 down the middle that split.
24:53
But remember, this game opened, if you didn't notice, it opened
24:56
at around a -, 1 Buffalo or even like a -, 1 on the road Kansas
25:00
City. So all the money that flowed in
25:03
as soon as this line was available to bet has been on
25:05
Buffalo. So we're seeing Buffalo again -1
25:08
+ 1. Pick them up to 2 1/2.
25:11
It is a low bets higher dollar. 70% of dollars are on Buffalo.
25:15
To me, this is a play where again, you love taking Kansas
25:18
City as a dog, but looks like the early movement is toward
25:21
Buffalo. So again, I'm going to put a pin
25:23
in this one as well. Let's just see how it
25:24
progresses, you know, over the next, you know, few days here,
25:29
but that one caught my eye because this line early move is
25:32
toward the Buffalo Bills, also Cincinnati and the Chargers.
25:36
This is a Sunday Night Football game and I noticed one thing
25:39
very early in this one. You are now -1 for the Chargers
25:44
at home. I want to say some books.
25:46
Open -1 1/2 - 2. It's down to one.
25:50
This line has moved a little bit towards Cincinnati, but I took
25:53
one look at the bet splits and the Bengals are getting 81% of
25:56
spread bets. Excuse me.
25:58
So if this continues to be a Sunday Night Football game where
26:02
the Chargers remain a short favorite and everyone's taking
26:04
Joe Burrow as a dog, I'm wondering if we're going to get
26:07
a buy low money line play to back the Chargers in this spot.
26:11
So again, that's just important to me because you're a Sunday
26:13
night favorite that's only getting as of right now, 19% of
26:18
spread bets. So that's a that's a contrarian
26:20
favorite opportunity. So again, just a few games here
26:23
early on that caught my eye again, Patriots with a sharp
26:27
line move, Denver Broncos, Buffalo with those sharp line
26:31
move. And will the Chargers be an epic
26:33
Sunday Night Football contrarian play?
26:36
So that about does it as we just wet the whistle.
26:38
Had a couple glances here at the slate upcoming for this week in
26:42
the NFL. But first is First things first.
26:45
We got to get through Monday at Football tonight.
26:47
But as always, guys, this is part of the pod where we wrap
26:49
things up. And I start by asking a favor of
26:52
you. Could you please do me a solid,
26:54
do me a favor, make my day by helping me to grow this podcast
26:58
as we can hopefully reach out to more and more average Joe
27:01
regular betters who love betting maybe aren't winning the way
27:05
they want. They're realizing betting is
27:07
very difficult. It's not as easy as they might
27:09
have thought it was, but there is a method to the madness, the
27:12
data-driven model. So if you wanna do me a favor
27:15
and help me grow the pod, there's one thing you can do.
27:17
You can just quickly and easily give this podcast a five star
27:20
review. If you're listening on Spotify
27:22
or iTunes, go to rate and review, give it five stars.
27:25
It would mean a lot to me. Help us to grow the pod, rise up
27:28
the charts, gain some more listens and follows.
27:31
If you want to click that follow button, that way you get alerted
27:33
as soon as the pod drops each day, that'll be great.
27:36
And if you want to leave a nice review or recommend it to a
27:40
friend, word of mouth is always great as well.
27:42
But again, A5 star review would go a long way on Spotify or
27:45
iTunes. Secondly, if you enjoy this
27:48
podcast, you look forward to the breakdowns because again, you've
27:52
learned to embrace the data-driven model and now you
27:54
want to learn more about data-driven betting.
27:57
Well, guess what? I wrote a book and I would love
27:59
for you guys to pick up a copy. If you just want to support the
28:02
team, gift it to a friend or buddy or colleague.
28:05
Give it as a stocking stuffer as the holidays aren't that far
28:07
away. But if you want to go to
28:09
Amazon.com and type in the everything guide to sports
28:12
betting, that's my book. All you got to do is type that
28:16
in. You can also go to Barnes and
28:17
Noble. It's available there as well.
28:19
But it's really got everything I've learned in the industry.
28:21
And remember, I started off, you know, just like everyone else
28:24
does, as a public better. I was in my, you know, very
28:27
early 20s betting with my friends.
28:29
We would always take the Red Sox, the Patriots, the Bruins,
28:32
the Celtics. We'd parlay everything.
28:34
I didn't really ever win, but I love the sweat.
28:36
I fell in love with betting and I realized betting with my head
28:40
or sorry, betting with my heart, playing my favorite teams,
28:42
that's not a recipe for success. But I learned to read the
28:45
market, which has really changed everything for me.
28:47
So my book, the Everything Guide to Sports Betting, it's all
28:49
about how to read the market in order to make sharp bets, how to
28:53
go contrarian, how to read line movement, how to identify smart
28:56
money, how to set up a bankroll management plan, chapters on all
29:00
the major sports, how to place a bet in person or online.
29:02
It's all included in the Everything Guide to Sports
29:04
Betting. So pick one up and again, I
29:07
will, I'll sign it for you and I'll buy you a beer if you bring
29:09
it to the book. But that about does it
29:11
everybody. One last thing or a couple last
29:14
things I wanted to mention. Have you signed up for a 7 day
29:17
free trial of Rhythm or Juice Real yet?
29:19
And my two favorite sports betting apps, they help me win.
29:22
I'm confident they're going to help you win.
29:24
Rhythm is obviously great for their AI backed models and
29:26
predictions for player props as well as game bets.
29:30
I would highly recommend if you haven't done it now, signing up
29:32
and doing that free trial because it's great for college
29:34
hoops as well. Like who's going to give you,
29:36
you know, a rhythm projection on Stetson Citadel tonight or North
29:40
Dakota State, Cal State Bakersfield, Like Rhythm's the
29:42
only one I know of that can give you a good sharp analytics
29:46
advantage there. But it's all sports included of
29:49
course. Juice Reel is my other favorite
29:51
app. It's great for a variety of
29:53
reasons. You can sync up your sports
29:55
books, get a running record of your performance.
29:58
I love taking a look. And if you are interested in
30:01
following the Robo Jackson best bet picks that come out each day
30:05
available at noon. The AI driven models will just
30:08
spit those out every single day. You can also look at arbitrage
30:11
bets if you want to grind out a profit.
30:13
Put in a little work, they'll just immediately identify the
30:16
top ARB plays each day. Sharp mush indicators letting
30:19
you know where all the wise guys are versus the the squares for
30:22
each game. Always look at those.
30:25
And then of course you can get those dollar breakdowns, actual
30:27
money wagered on each game for spread money line in total for
30:32
people who have synced up their sports book.
30:33
So juicer and rhythm are great again, give it a shot with a 7
30:37
day free trial. They help me win.
30:38
I'm confident they'll help you win.
30:39
But please sign up in this very specific way.
30:42
Click those custom links that are located in the bio
30:44
description of the podcast. For example, it'll say something
30:48
like in episode 160, Josh dishes out A5 pack or 4 pack of sweats
30:53
for it. Today, Sunday for NFL preview
30:55
for Week 11. OK, Scroll below that.
30:57
You're gonna get a link to Juice Reel, a link to Rhythm.
31:00
Click those custom links so that they know I refer to you their
31:02
way. Now to wrap things up, as
31:05
always, whether I see you at the Borgata in Atlantic City, Twin
31:09
River in Rhode Island, the Brook of New Hampshire, Foxwoods or
31:11
Mohegan Sun down in Connecticut, at the Encore in Boston, or
31:14
Plain Ridge Park Casino or MGM Springfield.
31:17
In my neck of the woods in Massachusetts.
31:18
Or out in the desert where the true grinders get down.
31:21
Or Billy Walter sends his number runners with lowest 2 as
31:23
possible is found at the South Point.
31:25
Or sweat and sharp contrarian plays jumping in the stadium
31:27
swimming pool. When you catch a big ticket at
31:29
Circa, wherever it may be, you're going to show me some
31:32
nice winters over the last few days.
31:34
Show me from Friday, New Mexico, UCLA, San Diego.
31:38
How about A5 and O Saturday BC, Kansas, Ole Miss, Utah UFC Radke
31:43
biting. How about the Houston Texans
31:45
covering the number the patriots?
31:47
Maybe you added the Denver Broncos, maybe added a couple
31:50
player props like Breece Hall or Cortland Sutton overs from the
31:53
live stream. But guess what guys first one's
31:55
on me, next one's on you. We're going to post about the
31:57
book. Sweat some sharp contrane place
31:59
together. So, as always, remember whether
32:02
we're running hot, whether we're ice cold, whether up, whether
32:05
we're down, whether we're treading water.
32:07
The model never changes. If we can consistently bet games
32:10
with our head and not our heart by reading and interpreting the
32:12
market, we'll be all right. So as always, stay sharp, stay
32:16
contrary and bet against the public.
32:17
Place yourself on the side of the house.
32:19
Always be with the smart money, never against it.
32:21
We'll smart money when every time.
32:23
Unfortunately not because sports betting is difficult.
32:25
Weird things happen. Razor sharp lines, the odds
32:28
maker said. We got to overcome the juice.
32:30
A player can screw up for us, so a ref can make a bad call.
32:34
But here's the thing, anything can happen in a one off.
32:36
But if we consistently stay true to that model long term bet with
32:39
our head and not our heart, against the public, with the
32:42
house, with the pros, flat bat, avoid parlays and get that CLV.
32:46
If we can do that, and I'm confident that we can guess what
32:49
we're going to be successful sports betters.
32:51
So enjoy the sweats everyone. Hope you had a great weekend.
32:53
Let's see if we can have a good night here to kick off a new
32:56
week in November. I'll best of luck.
32:58
Have a great Monday night and as always, we'll be back at it
33:00
tomorrow for a big episode 161 of the All systems go sports
33:05
betting podcast powered by rhythm.
33:08
Good luck everybody, enjoy Monday Night Football.