Latest / AG Bull / Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Why A Government Reopening Could Spark Ag And Trade

Transcript

Wiesemeyer's Perspectives | Why A Government Reopening Could Spark Ag And Trade · AG Bull

0:09
SPEAKER_00: Happy Friday, everyone.
0:11
SPEAKER_00: Tom Gristoffy, Eggbow Media, Eggbow Trading, the Eggbow Podcast.
0:15
SPEAKER_00: We have the one and only Jim Wiesmeyer.
0:17
SPEAKER_00: He's queued up, but we got to give him that introduction that this man deserves.
0:20
SPEAKER_00: He worked harder, probably, than anyone in DC because they're not working.
0:24
SPEAKER_00: Mr.
0:25
SPEAKER_00: Jim Wiesmeyer.
0:57
SPEAKER_01: Mr.
0:57
SPEAKER_01: Weissmeyer.
0:59
SPEAKER_01: We've got late breaking news analysis.
1:02
SPEAKER_01: We're ready to go, Tommy.
1:04
SPEAKER_00: Let's do it.
1:05
SPEAKER_00: We got a lot of a lot of road to cover in a short time to get there.
1:08
SPEAKER_01: Yes.
1:09
SPEAKER_00: All right.
1:10
SPEAKER_00: Well, if I had to talk about something, I guess I would probably cue up this one, sir.
1:16
SPEAKER_01: Government shutdown.
1:18
SPEAKER_01: I think we could actually see an end to this by the end of next week.
1:22
SPEAKER_01: Why?
1:23
SPEAKER_01: Why do I say that?
1:25
SPEAKER_01: Tuesday's elections.
1:26
SPEAKER_01: We have governor races in Virginia, my home state now, and New Jersey.
1:32
SPEAKER_01: And I think the Democrats want to get through those elections.
1:36
SPEAKER_01: They think they're going to win both.
1:37
SPEAKER_01: I'm not quite sure in New Jersey if they're going to win that, but we'll see.
1:41
SPEAKER_01: Either way, I think they're going to be close.
1:43
SPEAKER_01: But then they get them out of the way.
1:45
SPEAKER_01: They lose the argument after Saturday because that's when the uh schedule increases.
1:52
SPEAKER_01: That's when the the the uh the snap funding ends, although there's late-breaking news on that, that a judge just ordered the Trump administration to use five and a half billion dollars to partially fund those expiring food stamp payments.
2:09
SPEAKER_01: But the Democrats lose their argument on the Obamacare increase because those those notices are going out now.
2:21
SPEAKER_01: So they're hurting themselves the longer they keep the government closed.
2:26
SPEAKER_01: So hopefully there'll be give on both sides.
2:29
SPEAKER_01: The Republicans will have to give, maybe some future vote on some portion of Obamacare uh reform.
2:37
SPEAKER_01: But I'm I'm getting more confident that by the end of next week we're gonna see the government back.
2:42
SPEAKER_00: So you don't think the government's gonna become a Halloween store, Jim?
2:45
SPEAKER_01: It will to tonight.
2:47
SPEAKER_00: Tonight.
2:48
SPEAKER_00: What are you gonna be for Halloween?
2:51
SPEAKER_01: Oh, I sit, I like I go with my cat.
2:54
SPEAKER_01: My cat sits at the door, and he's she, I should say, she watches all those people in costumes and she loves Halloween.
3:03
SPEAKER_00: Very good.
3:04
SPEAKER_00: So you're sure we're not gonna become the dollar store in the capital.
3:08
SPEAKER_00: We are all right.
3:09
SPEAKER_00: You've been uh boy, if people have been listening to you the last 10, 12 weeks, we've been doing this.
3:14
SPEAKER_00: They've they've had some interesting opportunities.
3:17
SPEAKER_00: All right.
3:20
SPEAKER_01: Partial reopening of USDA offices.
3:22
SPEAKER_01: Remember, they had they called two people back each.
3:26
SPEAKER_01: Now, it's been a rough reopening, and and I don't fault the farm service agencies.
3:31
SPEAKER_01: And I've I've had more than a few emails from farmers, and I understand their frustration because the inability to get some farmer payments, including marketing assistant loans.
3:43
SPEAKER_01: But whenever you shut down the government, especially at the beginning of a fiscal year, it takes longer and it takes a week to 10 days, and that's where we are uh since they recalled those FSA two people per office back.
4:00
SPEAKER_01: And so I think hopefully over the weekend, in fact, I think some of these payments are going to be uh starting to be made, Tommy.
4:08
SPEAKER_01: That's a good thing.
4:09
SPEAKER_01: Let's hope I'm right.
4:11
SPEAKER_01: Let's hope I'm right.
4:12
SPEAKER_00: That's a real good thing.
4:14
SPEAKER_01: All right.
4:15
SPEAKER_01: Then we have some on the shutdown.
4:17
SPEAKER_01: Nope, we have the shutdown.
4:19
SPEAKER_01: We have let's go through the list of the government shutdowns to show how many times that the list?
4:27
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, there's there's the list.
4:28
SPEAKER_01: Look at that.
4:29
SPEAKER_01: How many times, what 13, 14?
4:32
SPEAKER_01: There's been a vote in the Senate on on voting for a clean uh continuing resolution, and it's been voted down each time.
4:41
SPEAKER_01: But you can see as we get into November now, we've got some critical dates here, both on the SNAP funding, which again, as we speak, a judge came out and said, USDA, we're forcing you to use the five and a half billion dollars in contingency funds.
4:59
SPEAKER_01: And hopefully you can look around and find some other funding in order to continue those much needed food stamp programs.
5:07
SPEAKER_01: And then, as I said before, we have the Obamacare increases, uh, 30% or more in increases.
5:15
SPEAKER_01: So that's why we're going to have a solution to that.
5:17
SPEAKER_01: But then the next one, Tommy, bring up we've got late breaking news.
5:22
SPEAKER_01: NAS, National Statistics Service came out with just this on their site.
5:27
SPEAKER_01: They're going, they will release key data in November.
5:31
SPEAKER_01: The military.
5:31
SPEAKER_00: This is a big deal, Jim.
5:33
SPEAKER_00: And you know what?
5:34
SPEAKER_00: All right, let's give it the breaking news.
5:36
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
5:40
SPEAKER_01: It is because look at crop production normally was going to come out November the 10th.
5:45
SPEAKER_01: Now it's going to come out November the 14th, for sure.
5:48
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
5:49
SPEAKER_01: And then the WASD report will come out the same date.
5:52
SPEAKER_01: Now they'll also have the milk production, cattle on feed, and and uh, etc.
5:57
SPEAKER_01: But why you know why did this occur?
6:01
SPEAKER_01: They had to find money from somewhere.
6:03
SPEAKER_01: Where's the money coming from?
6:05
SPEAKER_01: Why did this happen?
6:07
SPEAKER_01: Staff, NAS staff are being recalled because we need the reports for farm service agency activities.
6:15
SPEAKER_01: Okay.
6:16
SPEAKER_01: I was told.
6:17
SPEAKER_01: So that's a little exclusive for us right now.
6:21
SPEAKER_01: I would imagine that they found money either in the Commodity Credit Corporation or the shifting of funds.
6:27
SPEAKER_01: Again, there are billions of dollars in every agency.
6:31
SPEAKER_00: I wish I could find money like that, partner.
6:33
SPEAKER_01: Yes, I know, that are floating around and they found it.
6:37
SPEAKER_01: But that's good news because the market now is going to have some data for the crop size, the corn and soybean crops, and the WASDI on the demand side.
6:48
SPEAKER_01: It's going to be interesting to see what they say on China, Tommy, with the news that we're going to talk about later on on whether or not they uh increase U.S.
6:57
SPEAKER_01: soybean exports as a result of the Xi Jinping and Donald Trump uh agreements that were that were announced this week.
7:06
SPEAKER_00: Now we get to uh if you're a saver, you're making less.
7:09
SPEAKER_00: And if you're if you're a borrower, you're paying less.
7:13
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, but you'll pay less in the future.
7:16
SPEAKER_01: But we don't know about December because the curmudgeon, our Fed chairman, Jerome J.
7:21
SPEAKER_01: Powell, put a little fuzziness in the uh.
7:26
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah.
7:27
SPEAKER_01: And so uh we had wide expectations that they were gonna have another cut in the December Fed Open Market Committee, that's FOMC, in December.
7:37
SPEAKER_01: Now it's still over 50 percent, but we're not as sure.
7:40
SPEAKER_01: So because they don't have the data yet.
7:43
SPEAKER_00: Note what this young man said, Jim.
7:45
SPEAKER_01: Uh yeah, well, that's Jerome J.
7:47
SPEAKER_01: Powell.
7:47
SPEAKER_01: I he's I'm uh as I always say, he's smart, but he's dumb when it comes to interest rates, you know.
7:54
SPEAKER_01: Just he just it's behind the curve.
7:56
SPEAKER_01: He's the one who said that the inflation was transitory, it wasn't, and they kept interest rates too high for too long, and so now they need to further cut, but now he's thrown some uh some oil into the water.
8:09
SPEAKER_00: We got a picture of it.
8:10
SPEAKER_00: He said we may the what how do you word it?
8:13
SPEAKER_00: He said there's no he said there's no guarantee that we're gonna have a rate cut in December, and we'll show you what that looks like in a picture right here.
8:20
SPEAKER_01: Far from it, and far from it, he said.
8:22
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, far from it.
8:23
SPEAKER_00: And they listen to not every word he says, they listen to every letter and his reflection of that letter.
8:30
SPEAKER_01: Absolutely, but there's time to go in December.
8:33
SPEAKER_01: We'll have some increased data maybe before if the government comes back, as I think that they will by the end of next week.
8:41
SPEAKER_01: So at least we'll have some more data to give the Fed information so they're not as cloudy as they think that they are right now.
8:49
SPEAKER_01: So you'll eventually see lower interest rates than what they announced this week.
8:54
SPEAKER_01: That's my uh the easy prediction.
8:56
SPEAKER_01: That means real quick from the trader in me.
8:58
SPEAKER_00: When he said that the bond market sold off, and when we sell off at the border trade bonds, that means interest rates actually spiked on those comments.
9:07
SPEAKER_01: And the dollar and the dollar increase because you're gonna have higher interest rates longer, and so that's why you had an up put an uptick in the dollar, which is not so friendly to the ag markets usually.
9:20
SPEAKER_00: And we did see a lot of volatility in agts.
9:23
SPEAKER_00: October is officially over, the markets are closed.
9:25
SPEAKER_00: We have some good news.
9:26
SPEAKER_00: Soybean rally, and what does it mean for trade aid?
9:29
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, we've got what soybeans over eleven dollars.
9:32
SPEAKER_01: Uh boy, that's that's that's good.
9:34
SPEAKER_01: Let's hope we even go higher.
9:36
SPEAKER_00: I got a beautiful chart today.
9:38
SPEAKER_00: This is uh January, yeah.
9:39
SPEAKER_00: Soybean chart.
9:41
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, and then you put a beautiful chart in here, Jim, that really will give people a good idea of how miserable it's been for farmers, traders, brokers, speculators.
9:49
SPEAKER_00: Look at that sideways channel of a whole lot of nothing.
9:54
SPEAKER_00: 980 to 1060 caught.
9:58
SPEAKER_01: And then we we got the news that broke it out of that trading range.
10:03
SPEAKER_01: And the news was China and the U.S.
10:06
SPEAKER_01: came to an agreement.
10:07
SPEAKER_01: There's uh Trump and Xi Jinping in South Korea, and they had a host of agreements.
10:13
SPEAKER_01: I think we have one a checklist that that uh we're gonna go through just very briefly.
10:18
SPEAKER_01: What the you want a checklist?
10:20
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, I want a checklist.
10:21
SPEAKER_01: There we go.
10:23
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, the U.S.
10:24
SPEAKER_01: agreed to reduce the tariff rates on Chinese goods, the fentanyl tariff.
10:29
SPEAKER_01: He halved them.
10:30
SPEAKER_01: They were 20%, now they're 10% in return for Chinese cooperation that on the fentanyl issue.
10:37
SPEAKER_01: And Trump just said an hour ago he'll get rid of the other 10% tariffs if China follows through.
10:45
SPEAKER_01: And then the rare earth export controls.
10:47
SPEAKER_01: China agreed to delay implementation of those new rare earth uh export controls by one year.
10:53
SPEAKER_01: That's big news because it's gonna give us the time to work agreements in the U.S., but primarily outside of this country, Japan, other countries, South Korea, on uh rare earth uh you know minerals.
11:06
SPEAKER_01: I think it's gonna take up to two years, but that's still a good development.
11:11
SPEAKER_01: Agriculture, soybeans, China committed to reshume large-scale purchases of U.S.
11:17
SPEAKER_01: soybeans.
11:18
SPEAKER_01: We're gonna detail that in a minute, but it's just not soybeans.
11:22
SPEAKER_00: It's uh about your sorghum you've been talking about.
11:25
SPEAKER_01: They actually said the word sorghum, and so that's good to the Milo sorghum growers, but they didn't say anything about cotton yet.
11:34
SPEAKER_01: And you saw cotton had a rough week again, primarily, I think, because there was no confirmation of any new news relative to China on cotton.
11:44
SPEAKER_01: And I'm gonna be doing researching that this weekend, so maybe we'll have good news early next week once we get more information.
11:52
SPEAKER_00: But now let's the way the light's coming in, it's like you have a halo around you.
11:58
SPEAKER_00: It's like you should see it, Craig.
12:00
SPEAKER_00: You should see the way this is gonna look on film.
12:02
SPEAKER_00: You look like you're doing this broadcast from heaven.
12:06
SPEAKER_00: It looks good.
12:07
SPEAKER_00: All right, how about this?
12:08
SPEAKER_00: Did we get to the soybean?
12:10
SPEAKER_00: We did soybean rally, but what about this magic$13 billion?
12:14
SPEAKER_01: Oh, yeah.
12:14
SPEAKER_01: Now, farmers are beginning, especially soybean growers, are saying, you know, with this rally, is is this gonna impact the trade aid uh package?
12:23
SPEAKER_01: Now uh we've confirmed this week USDA moved$13 billion in funds from the Commodity Credit Corporation over into a trade aid package.
12:33
SPEAKER_01: Now they can't announce that, Tommy, until the government comes back.
12:37
SPEAKER_01: So they're ready to encork it.
12:39
SPEAKER_01: But Steve Vaden, he's deputy USDA secretary.
12:43
SPEAKER_01: Samson alert?
12:44
SPEAKER_01: Yes, he's uh I think he's the smartest person in USDA.
12:50
SPEAKER_01: Now, you know, uh he he really is.
12:52
SPEAKER_01: I mean, he you get him in a room, he's gonna be the smartest person, but he's very articulate, and for a lawyer, he can speak English, believe.
13:01
SPEAKER_00: I love it.
13:01
SPEAKER_00: Steve, Steve, are you watching the show?
13:03
SPEAKER_00: Are you watching the Ag Bull Podcast?
13:05
SPEAKER_00: Jim Weissmeyer, and he's not always big on compliments, he just sent you one.
13:10
SPEAKER_00: Say it one more time for those sitting in bed.
13:12
SPEAKER_01: The smartest person in any room he's probably at, but he's articulate.
13:16
SPEAKER_01: He was on agricul earlier this week, and he said he was asked, uh Chip Flory asked him, uh, well, will the price run up impact the uh trade aid program?
13:27
SPEAKER_01: He basically said yes, but he said that's what they want, they want to see that we it could take different paths.
13:34
SPEAKER_01: The bridge he could it could be several bridges, meaning uh sorghum hasn't had the price run-up like soybeans has, and cotton has.
13:42
SPEAKER_01: So we're still gonna get a trade mitigation program.
13:46
SPEAKER_01: Senator John Holman said it's ready to be announced, it's just the government has to come back.
13:51
SPEAKER_01: But you know, depending on the price run-up, if it continues for uh soybeans, uh soybean growers could be impacted on this because uh I know that they would much rather get uh funding from the open marketplace.
14:06
SPEAKER_01: Well, that's what they may be getting if this rally continues.
14:10
SPEAKER_01: And let's go through some of those agreements that they that they announced on soybeans.
14:16
SPEAKER_00: Absolutely.
14:17
SPEAKER_00: Is this the picture you like?
14:18
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, now at the beginning, people were so confused, and uh Joe and I were discussing before the program that the market soybean market went down initially after word of the US-China agreement because people were confused that there were very few details.
14:38
SPEAKER_01: But then Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant came out and said China has agreed to purchase not for shipments for to purchase 12 million metric tons between now and January.
14:54
SPEAKER_00: He said that early in the morning, right, Scott Besson?
14:56
SPEAKER_01: Yes, and that's when you saw it, it's like just it the market rallied as a result, and then he also said they agreed to purchase 25 million tons of soybeans annually for 26, 27, and 28.
15:17
SPEAKER_00: Chart you provided goes all the way back for you, home gamers.
15:20
SPEAKER_00: It's a little hard to see.
15:21
SPEAKER_00: We're going back to 20 2010, Jim.
15:23
SPEAKER_01: Yes.
15:24
SPEAKER_01: What I wanted to point out is look at the 20 that dotted line.
15:27
SPEAKER_01: That's the 25 million metric tons that they've committed to on an annual basis for 26, 27, and 28.
15:36
SPEAKER_01: Now, you can you can reach different conclusions on this.
15:40
SPEAKER_01: The blue line is the actual U.S.
15:43
SPEAKER_01: soybean export to China.
15:45
SPEAKER_01: Look at the last few years of the Biden administration, where they were actually they averaged 27 million metric tons.
15:54
SPEAKER_01: So some people are saying, well, they didn't even get a better agreement than what China purchased under the Biden administration.
16:03
SPEAKER_01: Now, you know, Deputy Secretary Vaden and the soybean growers are saying, wait a minute, this is a this is a floor, not a ceiling.
16:13
SPEAKER_01: China can purchase more than the 12 million metric tons between now and January and the 25 million metric tons on an annual basis for the next three years.
16:23
SPEAKER_01: But that is an issue in the marketplace right now that some people think, myself included, that they should have had a higher uh level than the 12 million tons and the 25 million metric tons.
16:36
SPEAKER_01: But at least it's better than zero, isn't it?
16:39
SPEAKER_01: Yeah, because that's what China was purchasing.
16:42
SPEAKER_01: So I'm not going to be too negative on them.
16:45
SPEAKER_01: They got an agreement, and at least we're off in a renewed trading relationship between the U.S.
16:52
SPEAKER_01: and China in the bean sector and the sorghum.
16:55
SPEAKER_01: We just don't have details on sorghum and other commodities at this time.
16:59
SPEAKER_01: But you know, when we were going through the list of the of the agreements, I didn't point out we had a port agreement that the U.S.
17:08
SPEAKER_01: and China are not going to assess penalties on shipping in in each other in each country.
17:16
SPEAKER_01: That's a good thing because now we have that off the books as we ship US soybeans into China.
17:24
SPEAKER_01: So that that's that that has been underreported, uh Tommy.
17:28
SPEAKER_01: So I think that's it's been a one-year, one year delay, and that's a good one because we don't have a uh shipping albatross around our neck on our shipments of uh beans and other products to China in the year ahead.
17:42
SPEAKER_00: Unbelievable.
17:43
SPEAKER_00: Jim, I got your email sitting up there, folks.
17:45
SPEAKER_00: If you're watching this, if you're listening to this, Mr.
17:46
SPEAKER_00: Jim Wiesmeyer, Wiesmeyer at Gmail.
17:48
SPEAKER_00: That's how you get on the list.
17:50
SPEAKER_00: Of course, when stuff's really breaking, Jim's been uh sending it to the EGBO website.
17:55
SPEAKER_00: We've been posting that.
17:56
SPEAKER_00: He has his own little corner of the AGBO website, Eggbull Intel Wiesmeyer's Perspectives.
18:03
SPEAKER_00: Mr.
18:03
SPEAKER_00: Jim Wiesmeyer there.
18:05
SPEAKER_00: Jim, you are working as hard as anyone I know with quality information.
18:09
SPEAKER_00: If it's not just right, say correction.
18:11
SPEAKER_00: I need to correct that.
18:12
SPEAKER_00: You're just on it like old school news when news was good and accurate.
18:18
SPEAKER_00: Uh a lot of integrity there, folks.
18:20
SPEAKER_00: A lot of integrity, Mr.
18:21
SPEAKER_00: Weissmeyer.
18:21
SPEAKER_01: Well, I learned from good, I had good mentors.
18:23
SPEAKER_01: They told us if you're wrong, you better say it and you better correct it.
18:27
SPEAKER_00: Let's continue with the show.
18:28
SPEAKER_00: We're going to get through this pretty quick today.
18:30
SPEAKER_00: We got uh we did Trump C, we did China Commitment.
18:33
SPEAKER_00: How about New World Screwworm?
18:35
SPEAKER_01: Well, we had a video online meeting between Secretary Rollins at USDA and her counterpart in Mexico.
18:44
SPEAKER_01: They didn't reopen the border.
18:45
SPEAKER_01: Uh, they discussed what it would take uh to do that.
18:49
SPEAKER_01: There were some new methods to deal with that screw worm.
18:53
SPEAKER_01: Um, and I think I I think in the not too distant future, that doesn't mean next week, but Mexico really wants to reopen that border.
19:03
SPEAKER_01: And I think that they're gonna monitor some of these new approaches that they're taking, Tommy, to to stop the spread of that screw worm.
19:13
SPEAKER_01: And I think when they meet next, the next time you see that they're gonna meet, you gotta up the odds at least that we could have a partial phased-in reopening of that border.
19:24
SPEAKER_01: I just don't know when, but that's I think that's the next step.
19:28
SPEAKER_00: Very, very interesting here.
19:30
SPEAKER_00: Well, there's let's talk real quick.
19:33
SPEAKER_00: They did not uh let's talk about this BS vote that happened with Brazil.
19:36
SPEAKER_00: Talk about that, give it some perspective.
19:38
SPEAKER_01: Well, the Senate I had had a series of votes this week that they approved a negative vote on Trump's trade policy on Canada and Brazil.
19:48
SPEAKER_01: And they were they were narrow votes.
19:50
SPEAKER_01: They did it uh there wasn't a supermajority, but it means nothing because the House isn't going to pass them.
19:58
SPEAKER_01: They may not even take them up.
19:59
SPEAKER_01: And even if the House were to pass what the Senate cleared, Trump would veto it.
20:04
SPEAKER_01: But these are message bills.
20:06
SPEAKER_01: It does show a number of moderate are anti-Trump Republicans voted against Trump's tariff policies.
20:16
SPEAKER_01: So it it it it it is a signal there, but it just it's not going anywhere.
20:22
SPEAKER_01: So don't waste too much time on that one.
20:24
SPEAKER_00: Okay.
20:25
SPEAKER_00: Sticking with beef real quick, and it's kind of like we have the headline, but we don't have anything to talk about it.
20:30
SPEAKER_01: Well, yeah, we need the agreement.
20:32
SPEAKER_01: And I'm telling you, the admit the White House and U.S.
20:36
SPEAKER_01: trade rep uh Jamison Greer and uh and uh Bessent, Treasury Department, they've heard it from uh both Republican and Democratic lawmakers say, What in the H are you doing importing Argentine beef?
20:51
SPEAKER_01: That uh cattle producers are finally in a profitable situation, and a four-fold increase in Argentina's beef shipments to this country from 20,000 to 80,000 isn't gonna have that much difference.
21:04
SPEAKER_01: But we saw psychologically it did.
21:07
SPEAKER_01: But I think now we've got that out of the way.
21:10
SPEAKER_01: I think you've got a cattle chart, don't you?
21:12
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, but you know what?
21:13
SPEAKER_00: I messed up the cattle chart.
21:15
SPEAKER_00: I do we have a cattle chart.
21:17
SPEAKER_00: This is just today that we stabilized.
21:19
SPEAKER_00: This is just a base price action.
21:21
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, yeah.
21:21
SPEAKER_01: That and that's a success because look at the volatility that we've seen uh on it.
21:28
SPEAKER_01: So you remember they announced a four or five-point plan to to increase uh cattle production, and as Trump said, he wants lower beef prices, uh, etc.
21:43
SPEAKER_01: But uh as most of us know who know the cattle market, it takes time.
21:48
SPEAKER_01: And the government, once they get into it and try to dictate a market decision, they'll screw it up every time.
21:55
SPEAKER_01: And they probably and they did the cattle.
21:57
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, that that was a lot of emotion with what happened in cattle, and I I'm very compassionate for all the hardworking men and women out there.
22:05
SPEAKER_00: I've joined a lot more.
22:06
SPEAKER_00: Uh I gotta jump on here so I could just talk like I'm this ghost in the back.
22:10
SPEAKER_00: But I I've joined a lot more groups on Facebook and people you're just people talking about it.
22:15
SPEAKER_00: I mean, there's I have people random friends from high school asking me.
22:18
SPEAKER_00: I heard they heard the cattle, you know, person real bad, and the price of beef isn't lower at the store.
22:24
SPEAKER_00: Do we dare talk about the big four?
22:26
SPEAKER_00: I mean, was there some inside baseball about, you know, was this not for the cattle people?
22:30
SPEAKER_00: Was this to take the pressure off the Packers?
22:33
SPEAKER_01: No, I just think it was Trump's and somebody's silly way to lower the price of beef that just didn't uh help.
22:42
SPEAKER_01: It just hurt the producer.
22:44
SPEAKER_01: But as you said, the demand is still there, and I very much so I do want the audience to hear that I got a surprise package of some good.
22:53
SPEAKER_01: I can't wait to uh have some tonight from none other than Tommy sent me some really nice steak.
23:03
SPEAKER_01: 12, 12, so uh 12 fill fillets.
23:07
SPEAKER_01: I can't wait.
23:08
SPEAKER_00: Those were from Albers Beef, Mr.
23:10
SPEAKER_00: Blake Albers and his family out of Nebraska.
23:12
SPEAKER_00: I I probably ordered three, four boxes, and now I'm sending them to people I like.
23:16
SPEAKER_00: Good news is, Jim, I don't like many people, and so you were one of the few people who got one.
23:22
SPEAKER_01: But yeah, you well, the demand is there, as you can see right there, and and I think that's what they're finding that the prices, although high, people still love a beef, including yours truly.
23:34
SPEAKER_00: Well said, my friend.
23:35
SPEAKER_00: Let's talk about this.
23:37
SPEAKER_01: Well, the today was the last day for to comment on the uh SRE reallocations, and a number in the biofuel industry, uh pro biofuel, is telling EPA, hey, have a hundred percent reallocation of those special refineries.
23:55
SPEAKER_01: So let's hope that that's the case.
23:57
SPEAKER_01: We're also still waiting on the 2026 and 2027 renewable fuel standard mandate levels.
24:04
SPEAKER_01: I think we're gonna have to wait until December for that one.
24:07
SPEAKER_01: But and 45Z details, we are still waiting for that and probably will into 2026.
24:14
SPEAKER_01: Why is this so important?
24:17
SPEAKER_01: Although we finally have U.S.
24:19
SPEAKER_01: soybean exports going back to China, and it's gonna take a time to build those purchases, you still need domestic utilization, and that's where the renewable fuel standard program and the 45z details become more important because that's the that's the fourth and fifth gear of the demand for for the U.S.
24:43
SPEAKER_01: soybeans and the various products, Tommy.
24:46
SPEAKER_01: I did forget there is a uh a little uh news I want to break.
24:52
SPEAKER_01: Let me see if I can find it.
24:54
SPEAKER_00: Next week, there is going to be uh uh I gotta see whether you look for that.
25:00
SPEAKER_00: I want to take a break.
25:01
SPEAKER_01: There's an expo, there's an expo in China next week, and Kafko is expected to sign a five million metric ton purchase commitment.
25:13
SPEAKER_01: Now, I don't know whether that'll include the shipment information or just a pledge to buy, but we're gonna get that news next week.
25:22
SPEAKER_01: I I that I just got that in about 20 minutes ago.
25:25
SPEAKER_01: Oh, that's so we could have some uh five million metric ton purchase commitment.
25:30
SPEAKER_01: Now that doesn't mean they're gonna purchase it.
25:33
SPEAKER_01: They could, but we're gonna wait details for that Kafko announcement next week.
25:38
SPEAKER_01: I think that's good news.
25:39
SPEAKER_00: And that'll coincide with this chart that I forgot to pop up.
25:42
SPEAKER_00: I'm gonna go back a little bit, but with you saying that, talk about this.
25:45
SPEAKER_01: That's the marketing year, U.S.
25:47
SPEAKER_01: soybean shipments to China.
25:49
SPEAKER_01: You saw the other one was on an on an on a calendar year basis, but this is million metric tons on a soybean, on a soybean marketing year.
25:59
SPEAKER_01: And you can see the clear the last trade war with China when it dipped down to 13 and 16.
26:06
SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
26:07
SPEAKER_01: And you can see where the levels of uh 23, 25, 31, you can see that's we that's we're into that area with this 12 plus 25 that we talked about uh earlier, as far as you know uh purchase commitments.
26:23
SPEAKER_01: So we're getting back to normal, as normal as you possibly can with US-China soybean trade relationships.
26:31
SPEAKER_01: But frankly, I hope I'm wrong, Tommy.
26:33
SPEAKER_01: I don't think this is gonna last that many years, which is why the soybean industry, thank thank goodness, is good at market development.
26:42
SPEAKER_01: They're gonna try to find other markets other than China and and connecting the dots.
26:47
SPEAKER_01: We have to increase domestic utilization of soybeans in the sector through the RFS and the 45Z programs.
26:56
SPEAKER_01: And so at least we have some time to work on that now with U.S.
27:00
SPEAKER_01: soybeans going back to China.
27:02
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, real quick, folks, we're down to the end.
27:04
SPEAKER_00: We got Mr.
27:04
SPEAKER_00: Jim Weiesmeyer on.
27:05
SPEAKER_00: Folks, if you're enjoying this show, Mr.
27:07
SPEAKER_00: Weissmeyer lets us do this.
27:08
SPEAKER_00: He gives it out to the public for free because he's a generous man, he loves agriculture.
27:12
SPEAKER_00: But the new www.agbull.com websites up.
27:17
SPEAKER_00: Of course, you can get the Wiesmeyer Intel, that's up there for free.
27:20
SPEAKER_00: But other yummies and goodies here on Halloween are available for$25 a month,$250 annually, and we are having fun.
27:27
SPEAKER_00: I want to say thank you to the new subscribers, and uh, we're gonna continue to work hard for you.
27:32
SPEAKER_00: We're getting out texts on actual alerts, morning emails, afternoon emails.
27:36
SPEAKER_00: Folks are calling the desk, talking to the uh brokers, and we're really enjoying dude that back to show.
27:41
SPEAKER_00: Also, want to give a shout out to my brother Joe Gersafi.
27:44
SPEAKER_00: He Mr.
27:45
SPEAKER_00: Weissmeyer works really fast.
27:46
SPEAKER_00: Text, emails, asked for pictures, and of course, Lindsay at the corporate office who uh loaded all these beautiful yummies here on this Halloween day.
27:54
SPEAKER_00: Now, with that, we only I'm so sad, it's almost over.
27:57
SPEAKER_00: We only have this is sad news.
27:59
SPEAKER_00: That's why I'm sad.
28:00
SPEAKER_00: Yeah, but we'll go to this one first.
28:01
SPEAKER_00: This one really bummed me out, Jim.
28:03
SPEAKER_00: This is not good.
28:04
SPEAKER_00: This is not good.
28:05
SPEAKER_01: No, it's a good company.
28:06
SPEAKER_01: FMC Corporation just cratered this week.
28:09
SPEAKER_01: They they cratered more than 45% their equity on Thursday, and for a holster reasons, yeah.
28:16
SPEAKER_01: India, some of they're having a Latin America competition for their products, but yeah, you look at that.
28:23
SPEAKER_01: Now that's that's not a good chart.
28:26
SPEAKER_01: You know, and they had I was on the earnings call, and boy, they they fessed up, they had to, so they're gonna take corrective action here.
28:34
SPEAKER_01: Now, my concern, Tommy, is some of the reasons they gave could be reflected in some future US ag sector earnings earnings reports over the next few months.
28:47
SPEAKER_01: Now, Cartava is a very good company, they've had a very good year, so they've had some built-up profits going in, but despite raising their current fiscal year earnings in August, Latin America has turned tougher on credit and pricing for crop chemicals, as we saw in FMC.
29:05
SPEAKER_01: So I would watch Cartava, and they're coming out with earnings next week, I think the fourth and the fifth.
29:11
SPEAKER_01: Deer has several times lowered their fiscal year outlook.
29:15
SPEAKER_01: Farm equipment demand is soft, and that's an understatement, and financing costs are relatively high.
29:25
SPEAKER_01: Cycle is near the bottom.
29:27
SPEAKER_01: Nutrient, now they had the temporary Trinidad uh nitrogen shutdown, and that's offsets uh their North American plants.
29:35
SPEAKER_01: So, but supply hiccups are possible.
29:39
SPEAKER_01: CF Industries, these are all very good companies.
29:42
SPEAKER_01: They missed the last quarter on higher cost, nitrogen pricing uh volatility, mosaic, Brazil is the key.
29:50
SPEAKER_01: They've had improved uh 2025 uh earnings, and now with uh Brazil step and increasing their soybean productions, I think their margins are going to remain cyclical.
30:01
SPEAKER_01: And then I've got a couple of others uh Bungie Global, I would watch out, and then ADM, they've had some problems over the Past year or so.
30:10
SPEAKER_01: But my point here, Tommy, is that uh the downturn in in the U.S.
30:15
SPEAKER_01: producer sector crops is not limited.
30:19
SPEAKER_01: This once the farmers do bad, a number of other affiliated companies have have uh challenges as well.
30:27
SPEAKER_01: And so that's why you have to have profits to build up for the years in which it gets harder.
30:35
SPEAKER_01: And that's why, thank goodness we had in 2021 a really good bull market in the crops, but you need more than a few of them to withstand the multi-year downturn that we've seen in the crop cycle the last last few years.
30:51
SPEAKER_01: That's the same way at uh uh agribusiness sector.
30:56
SPEAKER_01: And so I I think we're seeing it.
30:58
SPEAKER_01: This is just what the the ag sector development we're we're seeing on the financial side.
31:05
SPEAKER_00: Well said.
31:05
SPEAKER_00: Quickest you and I ever got to a podcast, and I'm not gonna make it any more drama.
31:09
SPEAKER_00: I gotta tell you folks, if you're watching this and you enjoy this, drop a comment down below.
31:13
SPEAKER_00: What can we do better?
31:14
SPEAKER_00: What would you like to see more of?
31:15
SPEAKER_00: Just ask.
31:16
SPEAKER_00: We'll try.
31:17
SPEAKER_00: We can't always do it, but we can try.
31:19
SPEAKER_00: Jim, with that, I always let you close the show, or I always, like we've done this for 10 years, you know.
31:24
SPEAKER_00: But I like to end shows on a positive note because there's a lot of emotion flying around.
31:28
SPEAKER_00: I think I know how you're gonna end it, but I don't want to ask you a question and answer it for you.
31:33
SPEAKER_01: Big D, big D demand.
31:35
SPEAKER_01: Big D demand is coming back in the crop cycle, not just soybeans.
31:40
SPEAKER_01: Eventually, we're gonna get that news out on sorghum and hopefully cotton.
31:44
SPEAKER_01: As I said, we may get other good news from Kafko next week on their five million ton commitment.
31:51
SPEAKER_01: We're gonna have to see the details on that.
31:53
SPEAKER_01: But it looks like uh we hit the bottom, and so now we're gonna build demand.
32:00
SPEAKER_01: Uh, we're we've uh improved basis significantly.
32:04
SPEAKER_01: As we told the audiences, Tommy, a few weeks ago to watch that PW area and the NOLA area.
32:11
SPEAKER_01: That will give us the signal that this coming China business is for real and it's for real.
32:17
SPEAKER_01: So I love a demand pole markets because that's when you get that cash price going up, because the exporters have to bid for those commodities.
32:27
SPEAKER_01: So that's not bad.
32:29
SPEAKER_00: Thank you, my friend.
32:30
SPEAKER_00: I'll see you next week.
32:32
SPEAKER_00: Sure.