Latest / Politix / Strike Wiles The Iron Is Hot

Transcript

Strike Wiles The Iron Is Hot · Politix

• 0:00
  SPEAKER_01: Good morning.
• 0:01
  SPEAKER_01: Healthcare is dead and so is Rob Reiner.
• 0:03
  SPEAKER_01: Hello and welcome to politics.
• 0:05
  SPEAKER_01: Should we keep it?
• 0:07
  SPEAKER_00: Go for it.
• 0:13
  Hey,
• 0:13
  everyone,
• 0:13
  you're listening to a free preview of the Politics Podcast.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_01: As the clock runs down on 2025,
• 0:19
  we're going to take a multi-angle look at the rats as they at
• 0:24
  least consider
• 0:25
  SPEAKER_01: fleeing the sinking ship.
• 0:27
  We've got White House Chief of Staff Susie Wiles torching
• 0:30
  essentially the entire
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_01: Trump administration.
• 0:33
  SPEAKER_01: We have Republicans in Congress in disarray.
• 0:36
  And we have broad bipartisan backlash to Donald Trump for doing
• 0:42
  something scummy,
• 0:43
  the kind of thing Republicans would typically just ignore or
• 0:46
  pretend not to have
• 0:46
  SPEAKER_01: seen.
• 0:47
  SPEAKER_01: So some good news in Trump adjusted terms to ring in the new year.
• 0:51
  SPEAKER_01: And if you want to hear the whole conversation,
• 0:53
  SPEAKER_01: you can upgrade your subscription to paid at politics.fm.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_01: Hey, everyone.
• 1:01
  SPEAKER_01: Welcome to the Politics Podcast.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_01: I'm Brian Boyler.
• 1:03
  SPEAKER_01: I'm Matthew Glacius.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_01: So firstly, a bit of housekeeping.
• 1:07
  SPEAKER_01: We're going to do one more episode this year,
• 1:10
  SPEAKER_01: next week,
• 1:11
  SPEAKER_01: and it's going to be our holiday mailbag episode.
• 1:13
  SPEAKER_01: So if you want to ask us questions,
• 1:16
  you can leave them in the comment section of the Substack post
• 1:19
  for this episode,
• 1:20
  or you can mail them to politics with an X at substack.com and
• 1:26
  just use mailbag in
• 1:27
  SPEAKER_01: the subject line.
• 1:29
  And then special appreciation for questions directed
• 1:32
  specifically to me or Matt so
• 1:35
  SPEAKER_01: that we just don't go too,
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_01: too long for the final episode of the year.
• 1:40
  SPEAKER_01: OK, so news.
• 1:43
  SPEAKER_01: Quick look at the sausage making.
• 1:44
  We were going to do an episode about the Republican failure to
• 1:48
  extend expiring
• 1:49
  health care subsidies and then mostly unrelated segment on the
• 1:53
  murder of Rob
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_01: Reiner.
• 1:54
  But Susan Wiles came up with a brilliant strategy to distract
• 2:00
  attention away from
• 2:01
  SPEAKER_00: the health care story.
• 2:04
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, so I woke up this morning.
• 2:06
  SPEAKER_01: I had some editing to do.
• 2:07
  SPEAKER_01: I have to be honest,
• 2:09
  SPEAKER_01: because of that,
• 2:10
  SPEAKER_01: we're recording at 9.30 on Tuesday,
• 2:12
  SPEAKER_01: and I haven't had a chance to read everything in this Vanity Fair piece.
• 2:16
  But yes,
• 2:17
  Susie Wiles apparently dished on how much everyone she works
• 2:21
  with sucks.
• 2:22
  SPEAKER_01: And honestly, not sure why she did it.
• 2:25
  SPEAKER_01: Don't totally understand the context for this piece,
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_01: but it doesn't seem like it's going to go over well in Trump world.
• 2:32
  SPEAKER_01: And it just made us realize that...
• 2:35
  SPEAKER_01: In all of these stories,
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_01: you see an element of Republicans getting really fidgety,
• 2:41
  really ready to try to create some distance between themselves
• 2:46
  and Donald Trump.
• 2:47
  SPEAKER_01: And so they're acting in ways that has not been typical of the past year.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, but wait, I want to...
• 2:55
  Step back on this Wiles thing because I need you to kind of
• 2:59
  fill me in because I
• 2:59
  saw a couple of screen grabs of some of the things that she
• 3:03
  said and they're crazy.
• 3:04
  SPEAKER_01: But I have not sat down with the piece.
• 3:07
  So Chris Whipple apparently has been working on a big Vanity
• 3:11
  Fair profile of Chief
• 3:14
  SPEAKER_00: of Staff Susie Wiles.
• 3:16
  She's been,
• 3:16
  I would say,
• 3:17
  a sort of a,
• 3:17
  you know,
• 3:17
  like an undercovered figure,
• 3:20
  maybe.
• 3:20
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 3:21
  if a like if a Democrat had appointed the first woman White
• 3:26
  House chief of staff,
• 3:27
  SPEAKER_00: we would like be hearing a lot about this.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_00: That's not like the Republican Party's style in the same kind of way.
• 3:35
  SPEAKER_00: But she's still White House chief of staff,
• 3:37
  SPEAKER_00: which is a very important job in every administration since Eisenhower.
• 3:41
  SPEAKER_00: She also.
• 3:43
  SPEAKER_01: Well, but except.
• 3:44
  SPEAKER_01: I don't mean to derail you,
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_01: but yeah,
• 3:46
  SPEAKER_01: but but like it really does feel like if you watch this administration,
• 3:51
  SPEAKER_01: that Stephen Miller is the chief of staff for like the security services.
• 3:55
  And then there's no chief of staff for the rest of the
• 3:58
  government because Susie
• 3:59
  Wiles job does not seem to be like the traditional White House
• 4:05
  chief of staff job
• 4:06
  SPEAKER_01: because Trump does all that himself.
• 4:09
  SPEAKER_01: So I would say the role is unclear, right?
• 4:11
  SPEAKER_00: The piece shed some light on that.
• 4:14
  SPEAKER_00: But also,
• 4:15
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 4:16
  it seemed like Wiles was a effective campaign manager who
• 4:20
  imposed a greater degree
• 4:22
  SPEAKER_00: of discipline on the Trump administration,
• 4:24
  SPEAKER_00: not the administration,
• 4:26
  SPEAKER_00: but like on the Trump show than we had largely seen in the past,
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 4:31
  SPEAKER_00: and that they had a lot of.
• 4:34
  SPEAKER_00: Relative to Trump sort of focus on their key.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 4:36
  SPEAKER_01: There was there was groceries, the old fashioned term groceries.
• 4:40
  SPEAKER_01: There was she's for they them.
• 4:43
  SPEAKER_01: And then there was Arnold Palmer's cock.
• 4:46
  And she kept she just was like laser focused on the three
• 4:49
  things that mattered at most.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_00: No, no, no, no.
• 4:50
  SPEAKER_00: But I mean, you know, compared to what you had before.
• 4:54
  And then she has it has seemed from afar like we are observing
• 4:59
  an unusually sort of
• 5:01
  weak chief of staff in which Miller and a couple of other sort
• 5:07
  of key lieutenants
• 5:09
  SPEAKER_00: are operating fairly independently.
• 5:12
  SPEAKER_00: of one another.
• 5:13
  SPEAKER_00: But, you know, who really knows?
• 5:15
  SPEAKER_00: There hadn't been like a lot of reporting on it.
• 5:17
  And there just hadn't been the sort of soft focus profiles that
• 5:21
  you would you would
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: expect,
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_00: really.
• 5:23
  SPEAKER_00: So, you know, Whipple seems like he spent a fair amount of time with her.
• 5:27
  SPEAKER_00: And it starts off with a sort of,
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 5:30
  SPEAKER_00: anecdoty type stuff and some things about what's going on here.
• 5:35
  SPEAKER_00: But then he says in the
• 5:38
  SPEAKER_00: Third paragraph,
• 5:39
  most senior White House officials parse their words and speak
• 5:42
  only on background,
• 5:43
  SPEAKER_00: but over many on-the-record conversations,
• 5:45
  SPEAKER_00: Wiles answered almost every question I put to her.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_00: So this leads into an extraordinary paragraph in which Whipple writes...
• 5:54
  One time we spoke while she was doing her laundry in her
• 5:56
  Washington,
• 5:57
  D.C.
• 5:57
  SPEAKER_00: rental.
• 5:58
  SPEAKER_00: Trump, she told me, quote, has an alcoholic's personality.
• 6:02
  SPEAKER_00: Vance's conversion from Never Trumper to MAGA acolyte,
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_00: she said,
• 6:05
  SPEAKER_00: has been,
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_00: quote,
• 6:06
  SPEAKER_00: sort of political.
• 6:07
  The vice president,
• 6:08
  she added,
• 6:09
  has been,
• 6:09
  quote,
• 6:09
  a conspiracy theorist for decades.
• 6:12
  SPEAKER_00: Russell Vogt,
• 6:12
  architect of the Notorious Project 2025 and head of the Office
• 6:15
  of Management and
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_00: Budget,
• 6:16
  SPEAKER_00: is,
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_00: quote,
• 6:17
  SPEAKER_00: a right-wing absolute zealot.
• 6:19
  When I asked her what she thought of Musk reposting a tweet
• 6:21
  about public sector
• 6:22
  SPEAKER_00: workers killing millions under Hitler,
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_00: Stalin,
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_00: and Mao,
• 6:25
  SPEAKER_00: she replied,
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_00: quote,
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_00: I think that's when he's microdosing.
• 6:28
  SPEAKER_00: She says she doesn't have firsthand knowledge.
• 6:32
  SPEAKER_00: The whole profile is like that.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_00: It's just a very unfiltered set of takes.
• 6:41
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, this is what you do when you've already quit, usually, right?
• 6:45
  SPEAKER_01: Like, it's... I mean, I guess.
• 6:48
  SPEAKER_00: It's like, but it's not like a rat trying to get off the ship.
• 6:51
  SPEAKER_00: It's like so...
• 6:56
  SPEAKER_00: unfiltered, it's like there's no strategy at all.
• 7:00
  But the other thing I would say about it is that there's
• 7:05
  nothing in here that in
• 7:07
  SPEAKER_00: any way cuts against the grain of what,
• 7:11
  SPEAKER_00: like,
• 7:12
  SPEAKER_00: I already thought.
• 7:15
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, like maybe, you know what I mean?
• 7:17
  SPEAKER_00: But like the down to like her micro characterizations of these rights,
• 7:22
  SPEAKER_00: so that it's like Russ Vogt is the real ideologue.
• 7:26
  SPEAKER_00: J.D.
• 7:26
  SPEAKER_00: Vance seems like an opportunist who had a very political conversation.
• 7:30
  SPEAKER_00: She she talks about like.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_00: how there's tensions between Vance and Rubio.
• 7:35
  SPEAKER_00: Because everybody says that, like, Vance is the successor.
• 7:39
  But,
• 7:40
  like,
• 7:40
  a lot of people,
• 7:41
  including Vance,
• 7:42
  kind of think maybe Rubio should be the successor.
• 7:44
  SPEAKER_00: She says that Rubio seems more principled than Vance.
• 7:48
  And,
• 7:48
  like,
• 7:48
  he's having sort of a harder time getting on the manga train,
• 7:52
  right?
• 7:52
  SPEAKER_00: Like, there's not a single moment in here where it's like...
• 7:56
  SPEAKER_00: Contrary to what people think.
• 7:57
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, yeah, yeah.
• 7:58
  SPEAKER_00: Marco Rubio has become a real true believer in MAGA.
• 8:02
  SPEAKER_00: You know what I mean?
• 8:03
  SPEAKER_00: It's like,
• 8:03
  it's as if Susie Wiles has no insight into the Trump presidency
• 8:08
  other than what you
• 8:09
  SPEAKER_00: could gather by reading Twitter.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_01: Oh, that's interesting.
• 8:11
  SPEAKER_00: And just like has the exact same take on what's going on.
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_01: Because,
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_01: yeah,
• 8:15
  SPEAKER_01: what I was going to say is like in this Trump administration,
• 8:18
  SPEAKER_01: we do not get,
• 8:19
  SPEAKER_01: and I attributed this to Susie Wiles,
• 8:21
  SPEAKER_01: like this is the one thing she does.
• 8:23
  SPEAKER_01: We don't get these...
• 8:25
  SPEAKER_01: uh, sprawling New York times and Washington post stories.
• 8:28
  SPEAKER_01: Like we got in the first term where,
• 8:29
  SPEAKER_01: where they have like,
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 8:30
  SPEAKER_01: three paragraphs of,
• 8:31
  SPEAKER_01: of wind up.
• 8:32
  SPEAKER_01: And then they say,
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 8:33
  SPEAKER_01: this article is based on interviews with 37 different sources,
• 8:37
  SPEAKER_01: you know?
• 8:38
  SPEAKER_01: Um, it, but instead of that, we have a lot of overt action and, um,
• 8:43
  And a lot more that you can kind of read between the lines of
• 8:47
  when when when news does happen.
• 8:49
  SPEAKER_01: And so you and I,
• 8:51
  despite lacking access through like Maggie Haberman to what's
• 8:56
  going on inside of
• 8:57
  SPEAKER_01: meetings and so forth,
• 8:58
  SPEAKER_01: have to kind of deduce that information for ourselves.
• 9:02
  SPEAKER_01: And what Susie Wiles is here saying is you're correct now.
• 9:06
  SPEAKER_01: to make those assumptions.
• 9:08
  SPEAKER_01: But as you say,
• 9:09
  it could also just be that she's making the assumptions too
• 9:12
  because she's so far
• 9:14
  removed from what's actually happening among real movers and
• 9:17
  shakers in the
• 9:17
  SPEAKER_01: administration that she doesn't really know.
• 9:19
  SPEAKER_01: I guess it could be either one, right?
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah,
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 9:22
  SPEAKER_00: it's like,
• 9:23
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 9:24
  SPEAKER_00: like,
• 9:25
  Musk triggered the first true crisis of the Trump presidency in
• 9:27
  an early test for
• 9:28
  SPEAKER_00: Wiles.
• 9:29
  SPEAKER_00: Trump's chief was shocked when SpaceX founder eviscerated USAID.
• 9:33
  SPEAKER_00: I was initially aghast,
• 9:34
  SPEAKER_00: Wiles told me,
• 9:35
  because I think anybody that pays attention to government and
• 9:38
  has ever paid to
• 9:38
  SPEAKER_00: USAID believed as I did that they do very good work.
• 9:42
  And then she's just like,
• 9:43
  you know,
• 9:43
  like Musk did this like it was really rash and impulsive.
• 9:48
  SPEAKER_00: And like, I don't know why.
• 9:49
  SPEAKER_00: And he says,
• 9:50
  SPEAKER_00: like,
• 9:51
  the president doesn't know any details about small agencies or
• 9:54
  whatever's going on.
• 9:56
  SPEAKER_00: Musk forged ahead.
• 9:57
  SPEAKER_00: All throttle, no break.
• 10:00
  SPEAKER_00: But it's like her take on Musk is like.
• 10:04
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know, like if you just like MSNBC take on Musk.
• 10:07
  SPEAKER_01: Well,
• 10:08
  SPEAKER_00: kind of or or like if you follow tech guys who admire Musk on Twitter,
• 10:12
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 10:13
  SPEAKER_00: like he believes you've got to break things.
• 10:15
  SPEAKER_00: But it's just not like.
• 10:18
  It's not like indicating any insight into the situation that
• 10:25
  like we don't quite.
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_00: have here.
• 10:28
  SPEAKER_00: And then they're like,
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_00: oh,
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 10:30
  SPEAKER_00: like Rubio has like sort of put back together,
• 10:33
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 10:34
  SPEAKER_00: a decent amount of like more of Humpty Dumpty than people realize,
• 10:38
  SPEAKER_00: which is also what I've been told by by by global public health people.
• 10:44
  SPEAKER_00: But then it's like.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_00: I mean,
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_00: it's a fascinating profile,
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_00: but it's like weirdly,
• 10:54
  SPEAKER_00: I just thought it was like as a contrast,
• 10:55
  SPEAKER_00: like I wrote about Larry Summers's career for Substack a while ago.
• 11:02
  And,
• 11:02
  you know,
• 11:03
  a lot of people who I've known over the years had different
• 11:05
  reactions to it.
• 11:06
  And like one of them was like another senior Obama
• 11:09
  administration person was like,
• 11:11
  something I think you should know that like most people don't
• 11:14
  understand is that
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_00: like Larry was against TPP.
• 11:18
  That like he was there in meetings saying the upside of this is
• 11:23
  like really small
• 11:24
  SPEAKER_00: and it's going to make people mad at us.
• 11:26
  SPEAKER_00: And like we shouldn't fucking do it.
• 11:29
  SPEAKER_00: And the rest of the econ team was like, Larry, like you're being stupid.
• 11:32
  SPEAKER_00: Like it's a good deal.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_00: Like we should push for it.
• 11:35
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know if that's true or not or if anybody cares or not,
• 11:39
  SPEAKER_00: but it was like 10 years after the end of the Obama administration.
• 11:43
  People who were at senior levels there are like still telling
• 11:47
  me about specific
• 11:48
  instances in which various senior people were not playing the
• 11:52
  role that like you
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_00: would have guessed.
• 11:56
  SPEAKER_00: from 10 miles away from the White House,
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 11:59
  SPEAKER_00: that just like things were more complicated than it seemed like,
• 12:03
  or different people had more nuanced opinions than you might
• 12:06
  have guessed,
• 12:07
  or just like life is complicated and a lot of different stuff
• 12:10
  went down over the
• 12:11
  SPEAKER_00: course of eight years.
• 12:13
  SPEAKER_00: Whereas this whole story with Trump is like,
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_00: it's like,
• 12:17
  SPEAKER_00: it's like basically what you would have thought.
• 12:19
  You know,
• 12:19
  like if you if you weren't there,
• 12:21
  like Stephen Miller really hates immigrants.
• 12:24
  Trump's whole Liberation Day tariff thing,
• 12:27
  like the whole team was like,
• 12:28
  this is dumb.
• 12:30
  SPEAKER_00: Well, I mean, we're taking out we're taking on water.
• 12:32
  And it was like really hard to talk him down from it because he
• 12:36
  loves tariffs.
• 12:37
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe it's just that they.
• 12:39
  SPEAKER_01: like this time around Trump didn't hire anyone with any new one.
• 12:44
  Like Susie Wiles may be the only person with traditional
• 12:49
  political experience who
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_01: kind of understands,
• 12:53
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 12:54
  that like people contain multitudes and that finessing language
• 12:57
  is sometimes
• 12:58
  SPEAKER_01: important.
• 12:58
  And,
• 12:59
  and everyone else in the administration is sort of a caricature
• 13:02
  of themselves.
• 13:02
  SPEAKER_01: Like Elon Musk,
• 13:04
  SPEAKER_01: When he was in the administration,
• 13:05
  SPEAKER_01: Stephen Miller as the ideologue,
• 13:06
  Pam Bondi as like the yes woman who's totally corrupted on
• 13:10
  board with ruining the,
• 13:11
  SPEAKER_01: like on and on down the line,
• 13:13
  SPEAKER_01: there's nobody in the administration this time around where you're like,
• 13:17
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_01: on the one hand,
• 13:18
  SPEAKER_01: it's questionable that they threw in with Trump at all.
• 13:21
  SPEAKER_01: But on the other hand, like H.R.
• 13:22
  SPEAKER_01: McMaster has a lot of real world experience doing stuff.
• 13:27
  SPEAKER_01: And, you know, so there may be more to this story.
• 13:30
  SPEAKER_01: then we can infer just by watching,
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 13:34
  SPEAKER_01: watching it unfold in newspapers or seeing the kind of like surface level
• 13:39
  SPEAKER_01: manifestations of stuff happening deep within the government.
• 13:42
  SPEAKER_01: That's all gone now.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_01: So maybe it's not such a huge surprise.
• 13:47
  SPEAKER_01: It's like, yeah, the Nazi we appointed to be my deputy is a Nazi.
• 13:51
  SPEAKER_01: The Nazi we appointed to screw up the government is a Nazi.
• 13:56
  SPEAKER_01: You know what I mean?
• 13:57
  SPEAKER_01: Like, that's all they are.
• 13:59
  SPEAKER_01: There's not much complexity there.
• 14:01
  And I guess the closest thing to new insight that I feel like
• 14:05
  you really get here is...
• 14:08
  SPEAKER_00: About Liberation Day, right?
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_00: So,
• 14:10
  SPEAKER_00: quote,
• 14:11
  SPEAKER_00: so much thinking out loud is what I would call it,
• 14:13
  SPEAKER_00: said Wiles of Trump's chaotic tariff rollout.
• 14:16
  SPEAKER_00: There was a huge disagreement over whether tariffs were a good idea.
• 14:20
  SPEAKER_00: Trump's advisers were sharply divided.
• 14:21
  SPEAKER_00: Some believing tariffs were panacea and others predicting disaster.
• 14:25
  SPEAKER_00: Wiles told them to get with Trump's program.
• 14:27
  SPEAKER_00: I said, this is where we're going to end up.
• 14:31
  SPEAKER_00: So figure out how you can work into what he's already thinking.
• 14:35
  And then she says,
• 14:36
  well,
• 14:36
  they couldn't get there,
• 14:37
  referring to the economics team.
• 14:40
  SPEAKER_00: And then she says, Wiles recruited Vance to help tap the brakes.
• 14:44
  SPEAKER_00: Quote, we told Donald Trump, hey, let's not talk about tariffs today.
• 14:48
  Let's wait until we have the team in complete unity and then
• 14:51
  we'll do it,
• 14:51
  she said.
• 14:52
  SPEAKER_00: But Trump barreled ahead,
• 14:53
  SPEAKER_00: announcing sweeping reciprocal tariffs from 10% to 100%,
• 14:57
  SPEAKER_00: which triggered panic in the bond market and a sell-off of stocks.
• 15:00
  SPEAKER_00: Trump paused his policy for 90 days,
• 15:03
  SPEAKER_00: but by that time,
• 15:03
  SPEAKER_00: the president's helter-skelter levies had given rise to the taco chant,
• 15:07
  SPEAKER_00: Trump always chickens out.
• 15:10
  SPEAKER_00: Wiles believed a middle ground on tariffs would ultimately succeed,
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_00: she said,
• 15:14
  SPEAKER_00: quote,
• 15:15
  SPEAKER_00: but it's been more painful than I expected.
• 15:17
  SPEAKER_00: So,
• 15:18
  SPEAKER_00: again,
• 15:18
  I don't think it's like a huge secret that the tariff thing
• 15:24
  didn't work out,
• 15:25
  SPEAKER_00: that the tariff thing did not represent like a broad consensus inside the
• 15:31
  SPEAKER_00: Republican Party about good public policy or that,
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 15:36
  SPEAKER_00: just in a contrast to the first term,
• 15:39
  SPEAKER_00: Trump's
• 15:41
  faced a lot of political vulnerability about the basic state of
• 15:45
  the economy.
• 15:46
  SPEAKER_00: But that is the one topic in which Wiles seems to me to be like,
• 15:52
  SPEAKER_00: not just like doing punditry,
• 15:54
  SPEAKER_00: but like actually trying to explain what
• 15:58
  The idea that like she played a role in trying to get a more
• 16:05
  trying to avoid
• 16:06
  Liberation Day and trying to orchestrate the walk back from
• 16:10
  Liberation Day.
• 16:11
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 16:11
  Like that's the one piece of this where it's like Susie Wiles
• 16:16
  is lobbying the
• 16:17
  SPEAKER_00: history books to try to be like,
• 16:20
  SPEAKER_00: for the record,
• 16:21
  SPEAKER_00: if everybody had listened to me,
• 16:23
  SPEAKER_00: we would have delivered a better outcome.
• 16:25
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 16:25
  Which is both like like what I'm that's why I feel like it's a
• 16:29
  campaign tell all
• 16:29
  book from somebody who's left or a White House tell all book
• 16:32
  from somebody who's
• 16:33
  SPEAKER_01: left the administration,
• 16:34
  SPEAKER_01: except she's still as we record this.
• 16:37
  Maybe that'll change by the time we're done,
• 16:39
  but she's still White House chief of staff.
• 16:40
  SPEAKER_00: But I would also say that I think that this all reflects the fact that,
• 16:45
  SPEAKER_00: like,
• 16:46
  SPEAKER_00: in her mind,
• 16:47
  SPEAKER_00: at least.
• 16:49
  SPEAKER_00: Although I would say also in my mind.
• 16:52
  SPEAKER_00: Like,
• 16:52
  SPEAKER_00: whatever you may make of all this other stuff,
• 16:56
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 16:57
  whether it's the National Guard or USAID or like anything
• 17:04
  that's happened on
• 17:04
  SPEAKER_00: immigration or whatever,
• 17:06
  SPEAKER_00: that like the political weakness for Trump,
• 17:09
  SPEAKER_00: because she is a true political operative.
• 17:13
  SPEAKER_00: You know,
• 17:13
  like a like a longtime Republican Party hired gun who got on
• 17:20
  the mega train because
• 17:22
  SPEAKER_00: like Trump wanted to invest in Florida.
• 17:26
  SPEAKER_00: She was somebody who knew Florida well and like she took the job.
• 17:29
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 17:29
  SPEAKER_00: And has been going from there.
• 17:32
  SPEAKER_00: that the thing that is hurting Trump politically is this stuff related to
• 17:40
  SPEAKER_00: inflation,
• 17:41
  SPEAKER_00: the cost of living,
• 17:41
  SPEAKER_00: the economy,
• 17:42
  SPEAKER_00: the tariffs,
• 17:43
  SPEAKER_00: et cetera,
• 17:43
  SPEAKER_00: et cetera,
• 17:44
  SPEAKER_00: et cetera.
• 17:45
  That like that is the Trump era controversy that she has been
• 17:49
  trying to she wants us to see us.
• 17:52
  as having inserted herself into and is like trying to steer to
• 17:56
  a different outcome
• 17:57
  than the president's original initial instincts or that how she
• 18:01
  sees some of the
• 18:02
  SPEAKER_00: economic team as having like botched it.
• 18:05
  And like she wants to park the tariffs in some kind of
• 18:09
  different place or let the
• 18:11
  record reflect that she tried to do that because she thinks
• 18:14
  that's where the
• 18:15
  SPEAKER_00: politics have gotten fucked up.
• 18:18
  SPEAKER_00: That like she's aghast, she says, about
• 18:22
  nuking USAID but she doesn't think there was like a problem
• 18:26
  with it right that like
• 18:29
  I just feel like you can't say this kind of thing like whether
• 18:32
  the critiques have
• 18:33
  SPEAKER_01: merit and they sound like they do
• 18:35
  You can't portray the people who nominally at least are
• 18:39
  supposed to answer to you
• 18:41
  as the White House chief of staff in this light and then keep
• 18:44
  your job or else you
• 18:46
  only do it in a sort of line in the sand way where it's like
• 18:49
  you shake up this team
• 18:50
  SPEAKER_01: so that I'm working with people who don't fuck everything up or I walk.
• 18:56
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 18:56
  SPEAKER_01: And I don't, you know, I...
• 19:01
  SPEAKER_01: I'd probably be a poor manager at this level,
• 19:03
  SPEAKER_01: but like my instinct would be that everyone would have to go.
• 19:06
  SPEAKER_01: Right.
• 19:07
  SPEAKER_01: Cause like clearly she's onto something at the same time,
• 19:10
  SPEAKER_01: clearly this is highly insubordinate of her.
• 19:13
  And you can't just forget that she decided that when she got so
• 19:18
  frustrated,
• 19:19
  she went around the boss to vanity fair and said that he's like
• 19:22
  an alcoholic and
• 19:23
  SPEAKER_01: everyone under him is an idiot.
• 19:25
  SPEAKER_01: And that's why we're polling so poorly.
• 19:28
  Yeah.
• 19:29
  SPEAKER_00: Yeah, I mean, but I don't even know if she's saying that they're idiots.
• 19:32
  SPEAKER_00: You know what I mean?
• 19:33
  SPEAKER_00: Like she she is like when she puts this this contrast right at one point.
• 19:43
  SPEAKER_00: Rubio's transformation was ideological in principle.
• 19:46
  She'd said,
• 19:47
  quote,
• 19:47
  Marco was not the sort of person that would violate his
• 19:50
  principles.
• 19:50
  SPEAKER_00: He just won't.
• 19:51
  SPEAKER_00: So he had to get there.
• 19:52
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah, because she's a Florida machine person.
• 19:54
  SPEAKER_00: Right, right.
• 19:55
  SPEAKER_00: But then by contrast, she suggested, Vance had other motivations.
• 19:59
  SPEAKER_00: Quote, his conversion came when he was running for the Senate.
• 20:02
  SPEAKER_00: And I think his conversion was a little bit more sort of political.
• 20:05
  SPEAKER_00: But I almost feel like she's—
• 20:11
  SPEAKER_00: She likes Vance more than Rubio.
• 20:13
  SPEAKER_00: I don't know.
• 20:14
  SPEAKER_00: Just like she's very political, I guess.
• 20:16
  SPEAKER_01: I don't know.
• 20:17
  SPEAKER_00: You know, like she just I read that.
• 20:18
  SPEAKER_01: I read that as a criticism of Vance.
• 20:22
  SPEAKER_01: But I again, I have not sat down with the piece.
• 20:24
  SPEAKER_01: And because of that, I don't know the answer to this question.
• 20:27
  SPEAKER_01: Maybe you do.
• 20:27
  SPEAKER_01: Does Whipple give any give any indication of whether.
• 20:31
  Her candor with him increased over time or was consistent
• 20:36
  throughout their interviews?
• 20:38
  SPEAKER_01: Because you mentioned Liberation Day,
• 20:39
  SPEAKER_01: and that was the first time Trump's approval polling plummeted.
• 20:43
  SPEAKER_01: But then he did a walk back, and it mostly recovered.
• 20:47
  SPEAKER_01: But then in...
• 20:49
  September or mid-October,
• 20:51
  I guess it was after the government shutdown,
• 20:52
  right?
• 20:53
  That's when Trump's numbers really fell off the cliff around
• 20:56
  the destruction of the
• 20:57
  SPEAKER_01: East Wing and the,
• 20:59
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 20:59
  the contrast between that and shutting down food stamps and
• 21:03
  health care and
• 21:05
  SPEAKER_01: Various other things, right?
• 21:07
  And that is when I pinpoint this sort of change in the national
• 21:14
  mood as having
• 21:15
  SPEAKER_01: really darkened on Trump and Republicans starting to act like normal,
• 21:21
  SPEAKER_01: more normal political actors,
• 21:22
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 21:23
  SPEAKER_01: And I wonder if...
• 21:26
  Around then is when she started being a little bit more salty
• 21:32
  about her colleagues
• 21:34
  SPEAKER_01: with Vanity Fair,
• 21:36
  SPEAKER_01: and that prior to that,
• 21:37
  SPEAKER_01: when Trump was more in command,
• 21:39
  SPEAKER_01: she was going to give a more disciplined,
• 21:41
  SPEAKER_01: scripted profile message.
• 21:44
  SPEAKER_00: I mean, I don't know.
• 21:45
  It's not 100 percent clear throughout the piece when the
• 21:49
  different interviews took place.
• 21:51
  The only one that he gives like a real beat for beat one on is
• 21:55
  he says that like on
• 21:56
  SPEAKER_00: day 56,
• 21:58
  she told him that they had like an informal agreement that
• 22:01
  there would be like 90
• 22:02
  SPEAKER_00: days of vengeance.
• 22:04
  SPEAKER_00: And then he was supposed to drop it after that.
• 22:06
  And then he says,
• 22:07
  like,
• 22:07
  I,
• 22:07
  like,
• 22:08
  asked her again on,
• 22:08
  like,
• 22:09
  day 87 or something.
• 22:11
  SPEAKER_00: Like, do you really think he's going to drop in?
• 22:13
  SPEAKER_00: She was like, yeah, I think so.
• 22:14
  SPEAKER_00: And then, like, I asked him later.
• 22:16
  SPEAKER_00: And she's like, yeah, I guess I guess that didn't work out.
• 22:20
  SPEAKER_00: So maybe that actually is the thing.
• 22:24
  SPEAKER_00: But he doesn't say that, you know, that it was like.
• 22:29
  SPEAKER_00: Once she was proven wrong about this 90 day clock,
• 22:31
  she decided like she didn't really give a shit because she
• 22:36
  wasn't being efficacious
• 22:38
  in what clearly like she had decided was like because because
• 22:43
  in the in the day 56
• 22:45
  SPEAKER_00: interview,
• 22:45
  SPEAKER_00: she is crediting herself.
• 22:48
  SPEAKER_00: with the 90 day deadline.
• 22:50
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 22:51
  Like she's saying,
• 22:51
  like,
• 22:52
  you're going to see like me and Trump like have this deal.
• 22:56
  He's going to like do this for a while,
• 22:58
  but then we're going to turn the page.
• 23:01
  SPEAKER_00: You know, I just don't.
• 23:04
  SPEAKER_00: I just don't.
• 23:04
  Maybe we should cancel the mailbag and bring Whipple on and
• 23:07
  just ask him about it.
• 23:08
  Because it is one of these things where the sequencing is
• 23:12
  important or the ebb and
• 23:14
  flow of his relationship with Wiles might contain information
• 23:18
  that is nonverbal.
• 23:20
  SPEAKER_01: If he's having a hard time getting interesting information out of her,
• 23:25
  maybe thinking this is a go-nowhere profile or one that won't
• 23:29
  attract a lot of
• 23:30
  SPEAKER_01: attention,
• 23:31
  SPEAKER_01: but then sometime in September,
• 23:32
  SPEAKER_01: October...
• 23:34
  SPEAKER_01: She starts getting looser with him.
• 23:37
  SPEAKER_00: But I would say here's the thing.
• 23:40
  SPEAKER_00: That.
• 23:42
  SPEAKER_00: The part of this interview series that is like extremely not candid.
• 23:48
  SPEAKER_00: Is when he's asking her about some different stuff about Epstein.
• 23:53
  SPEAKER_00: And first she's like, Pam Bondi, like really fucked that up.
• 23:57
  SPEAKER_00: And then when he asks her about like,
• 23:59
  SPEAKER_00: why did Ghislaine Maxwell get this like sweetheart prison rearrangement?
• 24:03
  SPEAKER_00: She's like, oh, I have no idea why that happened.
• 24:07
  SPEAKER_00: Like Trump had nothing to do with it.
• 24:09
  SPEAKER_00: He got like tricked by somebody.
• 24:11
  SPEAKER_00: And then he's like,
• 24:12
  SPEAKER_00: so I asked her like,
• 24:13
  SPEAKER_00: well,
• 24:14
  SPEAKER_00: are you going to like look into it and like tell me what happened?
• 24:17
  SPEAKER_00: And she's like, absolutely.
• 24:19
  SPEAKER_00: And then she never did.
• 24:20
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 24:20
  SPEAKER_00: So
• 24:24
  I wrote a piece today about the sort of open question of like
• 24:30
  what the pass of the
• 24:31
  SPEAKER_00: baton to J.D.
• 24:32
  SPEAKER_00: Vance will look like.
• 24:35
  SPEAKER_00: Because a lot of what you've seen as,
• 24:39
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 24:41
  SPEAKER_00: there's been more infighting sort of happening lately.
• 24:45
  But it's like conservative movement figures talking shit about
• 24:49
  each other,
• 24:50
  right?
• 24:50
  SPEAKER_00: It's very much like good czar, bad boyars kind of stuff.
• 24:56
  SPEAKER_00: And the whole Wiles thing is very much like this, right?
• 25:00
  SPEAKER_00: It's like to a normal person,
• 25:03
  SPEAKER_00: of course,
• 25:03
  SPEAKER_00: it paints a very damning picture of Donald Trump if he's got like
• 25:08
  All these like cretins and ketamine addicts and like the
• 25:13
  president of the United
• 25:14
  States was tricked by unknown subordinates into making like
• 25:18
  some sweetheart prison
• 25:19
  SPEAKER_00: arrangement with a sex trafficker.
• 25:21
  SPEAKER_00: Like that's really bad.
• 25:23
  SPEAKER_00: But like Wiles is consistently exonerating Trump from anything.
• 25:30
  And part of why I don't know that this is like a burning of
• 25:34
  bridges or of rats
• 25:35
  SPEAKER_00: leaving the sinking ship is like,
• 25:37
  I'm not sure how much Trump cares about what anybody says about
• 25:41
  his subordinates.
• 25:42
  SPEAKER_00: Like she's saying very good things about Trump.
• 25:45
  And she,
• 25:46
  at the end,
• 25:47
  after this kind of disparaging characterization of J.D.
• 25:49
  SPEAKER_00: Vance having like a political conversion to Trumpism,
• 25:55
  SPEAKER_00: she's like,
• 25:55
  SPEAKER_00: well,
• 25:56
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 25:56
  SPEAKER_00: he realized that Trump was the right person to save the country.
• 26:00
  SPEAKER_00: which, like, who fucking knows?
• 26:02
  SPEAKER_00: But, like, this is how, it is how the whole movement operates.
• 26:08
  SPEAKER_00: So,
• 26:08
  SPEAKER_00: like,
• 26:09
  SPEAKER_00: Tucker Carlson and Bari Weiss have been,
• 26:12
  SPEAKER_00: like,
• 26:12
  SPEAKER_00: at each other's throats increasingly for the past two months about,
• 26:17
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 26:17
  SPEAKER_00: whether,
• 26:18
  SPEAKER_00: like,
• 26:19
  SPEAKER_00: Jews are evil or not,
• 26:22
  SPEAKER_00: or something.
• 26:23
  SPEAKER_00: But, like, neither of them...
• 26:26
  is like critical of Donald Trump or the Trump administration or
• 26:30
  people who vote for
• 26:31
  SPEAKER_00: Trump or pro-Trump media or anything like that.
• 26:35
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 26:35
  SPEAKER_00: So we're just kind of like piling more.
• 26:38
  SPEAKER_00: And there doesn't even seem to be real dispute about J.D.
• 26:43
  SPEAKER_00: Vance as the successor.
• 26:45
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 26:46
  I mean,
• 26:47
  my look like my I did a much briefer mailbag response to a
• 26:51
  reader on the J.D.
• 26:52
  SPEAKER_01: Vance question.
• 26:53
  And I don't see him doing a very good job holding the MAGA camp
• 26:59
  together because it
• 27:01
  all derives from this big number of Republicans who say they
• 27:04
  support Trump.
• 27:06
  SPEAKER_01: You know, 95%, right?
• 27:08
  And we know because he's essentially either laid waste to or
• 27:12
  run through all the
• 27:13
  SPEAKER_01: institutions of the Republican Party,
• 27:15
  SPEAKER_01: that that is a very personalist 95%.
• 27:17
  SPEAKER_01: It's not,
• 27:19
  SPEAKER_01: I'm a lifelong Republican,
• 27:20
  SPEAKER_01: so I support the Republican president,
• 27:22
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 27:23
  SPEAKER_01: good or bad.
• 27:25
  SPEAKER_01: And right now that person is Donald Trump,
• 27:27
  SPEAKER_01: but I will just transfer that loyalty to whoever the next nominee is.
• 27:30
  SPEAKER_01: It really is about Trump.
• 27:32
  SPEAKER_01: And so...
• 27:35
  The people who want to take over the party are somewhat
• 27:39
  inhibited from saying
• 27:41
  SPEAKER_01: negative things about him as long as that number is super high.
• 27:45
  And if Trump were to pass away or just say in some kind of
• 27:48
  credible manner,
• 27:50
  SPEAKER_01: I'm not going to do the illegitimate third term thing.
• 27:56
  SPEAKER_01: Whether or not he was like, I hope people rally behind J.D.
• 28:00
  SPEAKER_01: Vance.
• 28:01
  SPEAKER_01: Like,
• 28:02
  SPEAKER_01: I think that's the signal that would,
• 28:05
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 28:06
  SPEAKER_01: tempt Marco Rubio and Kristi Noem and various other people to leave the
• 28:11
  SPEAKER_01: administration and begin attacking J.D.
• 28:15
  Vance so that they could wrest control of the popular base of
• 28:19
  the party from him.
• 28:21
  SPEAKER_01: Right?
• 28:22
  SPEAKER_01: Like, it's...
• 28:23
  it's not clear to me that Trump snapping his fingers and saying
• 28:27
  Vance was my loyal
• 28:27
  SPEAKER_01: VP,
• 28:28
  ergo I support him to be my successor is necessarily going to
• 28:31
  be all that sticky.
• 28:33
  And I mean,
• 28:34
  you can already see that it's,
• 28:37
  it's starting to slip a little bit,
• 28:39
  right?
• 28:39
  SPEAKER_01: Like you have,
• 28:40
  SPEAKER_01: I guess they're going to quote unquote,
• 28:43
  SPEAKER_01: win this healthcare situation by not renewing ACA subsidies,
• 28:48
  SPEAKER_01: but like,
• 28:49
  SPEAKER_01: Marjorie Taylor Greene is therefore like actually running against Trump,
• 28:54
  SPEAKER_01: not claiming he's poorly served by J.D.
• 28:56
  SPEAKER_01: Vance or Susie Wiles.
• 28:57
  SPEAKER_01: She's saying Trump is like leading poorly.
• 29:00
  SPEAKER_01: He's doing a bad job as president.
• 29:02
  SPEAKER_01: on healthcare on a variety of issues, right?
• 29:05
  SPEAKER_01: And she's talking about,
• 29:06
  SPEAKER_01: like,
• 29:07
  signing every discharge petition between now and when she
• 29:10
  retires from the House in
• 29:11
  SPEAKER_01: a couple weeks.
• 29:13
  SPEAKER_01: And she's talking about,
• 29:14
  SPEAKER_01: this is,
• 29:15
  SPEAKER_01: I guess,
• 29:15
  SPEAKER_01: less about Trump,
• 29:16
  SPEAKER_01: but it's like,
• 29:17
  she's talking about doing a motion to vacate the chair so that
• 29:22
  Mike Johnson has to
• 29:23
  SPEAKER_01: fight for his speakership on the floor,
• 29:25
  SPEAKER_01: right?
• 29:26
  SPEAKER_01: And, like, that...
• 29:30
  SPEAKER_01: strikes me as like a bad omen for Trump and also for Vance.
• 29:37
  And like the analysis of the situation that you have was
• 29:45
  correct for like the first
• 29:46
  SPEAKER_01: 200 days of this administration,
• 29:47
  SPEAKER_01: but it's starting to wobble a little bit.
• 29:50
  SPEAKER_00: Maybe.
• 29:51
  SPEAKER_00: I felt that your Vance take was overly optimistic.
• 29:56
  SPEAKER_01: It probably was.
• 29:57
  SPEAKER_01: I mean, I would like to see J.D.
• 29:58
  SPEAKER_01: Vance suffer, so.
• 29:59
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 30:00
  SPEAKER_00: Like, I could see it.
• 30:02
  SPEAKER_00: But there's a flip side, which is that, you know, Vance is a lot younger.
• 30:07
  SPEAKER_00: He's a lot more active and energetic.
• 30:10
  SPEAKER_00: He's a lot more knowledgeable about the details of various things.
• 30:14
  SPEAKER_00: Vance can, like...
• 30:18
  SPEAKER_00: recite what like a debate is about and explain what his side of it is,
• 30:25
  SPEAKER_00: which Trump can't really do.
• 30:26
  And so may have greater ability to actually like I mean,
• 30:32
  obviously he won't
• 30:34
  SPEAKER_00: Instantly inherit the like cult like personalist regime that Trump has.
• 30:42
  But he has,
• 30:42
  I think,
• 30:43
  like some skills that can help make up some of the deficits.
• 30:46
  SPEAKER_00: He also is just like.
• 30:49
  Well regarded by both the hardcore immigration haters and the
• 30:56
  tech billionaires who are like.
• 31:01
  SPEAKER_00: I wouldn't say at odds with each other,
• 31:03
  but it's a it's a little bit of an odd couple pairing at the
• 31:08
  heart of Trumpism.
• 31:10
  SPEAKER_00: And like you could imagine.
• 31:13
  SPEAKER_00: Things.
• 31:15
  SPEAKER_00: Flipping,
• 31:16
  SPEAKER_00: cleaving if the like anti-immigration racists got more popular,
• 31:23
  SPEAKER_00: like like Ron DeSantis.
• 31:25
  SPEAKER_00: Like became has like become an anti-data center guy.
• 31:29
  SPEAKER_00: for whatever reason.
• 31:32
  And you could imagine a world where like that would actually
• 31:34
  fit in well with like J.D.
• 31:36
  SPEAKER_00: Vance's nominal politics and stated political identity.
• 31:42
  SPEAKER_00: But also J.D.
• 31:43
  SPEAKER_00: Vance like worked for Peter Thiel,
• 31:45
  SPEAKER_00: was a venture capitalist before he was a never Trumper,
• 31:47
  SPEAKER_00: before he was a MAGA guy.
• 31:50
  And so you could imagine a world in which Vance becomes like a,
• 31:56
  you know,
• 31:56
  AI accelerationist
• 31:58
  SPEAKER_00: true believer who is like,
• 32:00
  SPEAKER_00: you know,
• 32:00
  SPEAKER_00: we need to like get the top research talent from all over the world here,
• 32:04
  SPEAKER_00: blah,
• 32:04
  SPEAKER_00: blah,
• 32:04
  SPEAKER_00: blah.
• 32:05
  SPEAKER_00: But like he's not doing that either.
• 32:06
  And like he has the right credibility to continue the Trump
• 32:10
  dynamic where like
• 32:12
  SPEAKER_00: everyone sort of just insists he's a golden God.
• 32:17
  SPEAKER_00: A classic, you know, Iglesias point about all of this is that
• 32:25
  Like,
• 32:26
  you see the biggest actual inter-Republican fissures on this
• 32:31
  health care thing.
• 32:34
  SPEAKER_00: You know what I mean?
• 32:34
  Like,
• 32:35
  and where it's not anything zany or distinctively Trump-like
• 32:41
  that's happening.
• 32:42
  SPEAKER_00: If you told me in 10 years ago, OK, it's going to be 2025.
• 32:51
  SPEAKER_00: And there's going to be an issue.
• 32:53
  And the issue is going to be about how lots of Republicans just
• 32:57
  don't want to spend
• 32:58
  SPEAKER_00: any money on helping people have health care.
• 33:01
  SPEAKER_00: But other Republicans are like,
• 33:03
  our view of health care policy is politically toxic and we need
• 33:07
  to do something
• 33:08
  SPEAKER_00: about it.
• 33:08
  SPEAKER_00: I would have been like, yeah, like that, that sounds about it.
• 33:12
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 33:13
  SPEAKER_00: Like that.
• 33:14
  SPEAKER_00: That's like how things go in politics.
• 33:17
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 33:17
  Is like there's a clash between free market ideology and the
• 33:21
  practical political
• 33:22
  SPEAKER_00: realities of health care.
• 33:24
  SPEAKER_00: And this is something that we see like across time and space.
• 33:27
  We see it in like how no other right wing political party
• 33:31
  around the world tries to
• 33:33
  SPEAKER_00: do free market health care policy.
• 33:34
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 33:36
  SPEAKER_00: Et cetera.
• 33:37
  Ninety million other things that have happened in American
• 33:39
  politics over the past
• 33:40
  SPEAKER_00: 10 years,
• 33:41
  I would never in a million years have predicted because like
• 33:43
  they're so crazy.
• 33:45
  SPEAKER_00: They're so downstream of Trump unexpectedly winning the primary.
• 33:50
  Like someone's going to take a bulldozer to the east wing of
• 33:53
  the White House to
• 33:54
  SPEAKER_00: construct a ballroom.
• 33:55
  SPEAKER_00: Like that's absurd.
• 33:57
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 33:57
  SPEAKER_00: Like why would that happen?
• 33:59
  SPEAKER_00: Right.
• 34:00
  But just like Republicans are going to find that they don't
• 34:04
  really have consensus
• 34:05
  SPEAKER_00: about how health care should work.
• 34:07
  SPEAKER_00: Like, yep, that's that's true.
• 34:09
  They still don't have the Obamacare replacement plan,
• 34:11
  like same as it ever was.
• 34:14
  SPEAKER_00: And that just seems like their actual weakest point,
• 34:19
  even though it's not by any means the most interesting thing
• 34:22
  that's happening.
• 34:24
  And,
• 34:25
  you know,
• 34:26
  Trump's polling has bounced back somewhat from his low point.
• 34:32
  Once the government shutdown ended and the news environment
• 34:35
  became more diverse,
• 34:37
  SPEAKER_00: Like mostly diverse with anti-Trump stories,
• 34:40
  but just still more diverse in a way that is better for Trump
• 34:45
  than back when Chuck
• 34:46
  Schumer and Hakeem Jeffries were claiming that the government
• 34:50
  was going to be shut
• 34:51
  SPEAKER_00: down until Republicans made concessions on health care.
• 34:54
  SPEAKER_01: Well,
• 34:55
  SPEAKER_01: I mean,
• 34:55
  SPEAKER_01: they might have another bite at that apple,
• 34:57
  SPEAKER_01: although I guess as we record this,
• 34:59
  yesterday was the day you had to have signed up for your new
• 35:02
  health care plan if
• 35:03
  SPEAKER_01: you want to have continuous coverage across 2025 and 2026.
• 35:09
  SPEAKER_01: And so people are either going to lose their health care or have to pay
• 35:14
  SPEAKER_01: significantly higher premium,
• 35:15
  SPEAKER_01: most Obamacare beneficiaries.
• 35:19
  But so,
• 35:19
  I mean,
• 35:20
  I mostly agree with you about that,
• 35:21
  although I do think that like
• 35:23
  The actually most visible divisions within the Republican Party
• 35:27
  are not on health care.
• 35:28
  SPEAKER_01: Like they ended up in the same place they always ended up, which is.
• 35:32
  United behind a very toxic view,
• 35:35
  because that's just how the party's wired.
• 35:37
  SPEAKER_01: But on Rob Reiner,
• 35:39
  which we're going to talk about on the other side of the
• 35:41
  paywall and on Epstein.
• 35:44
  SPEAKER_01: And so.
• 35:46
  SPEAKER_01: They all ultimately got on board with like denying people healthcare,
• 35:50
  SPEAKER_01: which is sort of like what they usually do,
• 35:52
  SPEAKER_01: like stick with their toxically unpopular healthcare position.
• 35:56
  SPEAKER_01: They're much more divided over Epstein.
• 35:58
  SPEAKER_01: Like the whole party turned on Trump over Epstein.
• 36:01
  They're turning on Trump over his handling,
• 36:04
  which we'll talk about on the,
• 36:05
  um,
• 36:06
  other side of the paywall about how he,
• 36:08
  what,
• 36:08
  how he responded to the murder of Rob Reiner.
• 36:11
  SPEAKER_01: Oh yeah.
• 36:12
  SPEAKER_01: And I like,
• 36:12
  SPEAKER_01: I think that there,
• 36:14
  SPEAKER_01: I think that there's like theoretically more division over,
• 36:18
  SPEAKER_01: over AI and tech in,
• 36:20
  SPEAKER_01: in,
• 36:20
  SPEAKER_01: in the future.
• 36:20
  SPEAKER_01: And like.
• 36:21
  SPEAKER_01: Theoretically.
• 36:22
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 36:23
  SPEAKER_01: Yeah.
• 36:23
  SPEAKER_01: Well,
• 36:24
  SPEAKER_01: one thing that,
• 36:25
  SPEAKER_01: you know,
• 36:25
  this is most supposed to be a happy conversation about
• 36:28
  Republican divisions and
• 36:31
  SPEAKER_01: Republicans being in disarray.
• 36:32
  SPEAKER_01: But I w I am surprised by the tack.
• 36:35
  SPEAKER_01: Democrats are taking on AI,
• 36:37
  where instead of trying to pin it to the forehead of
• 36:42
  Republicans and then also try
• 36:44
  SPEAKER_01: to unravel the situation,
• 36:47
  SPEAKER_01: like pop the AI bubble in some sense,
• 36:49
  SPEAKER_01: and then it all comes crashing down and the Republicans own it,
• 36:53
  SPEAKER_01: they are trying to make it easy for Republicans to...
• 36:59
  SPEAKER_01: slough off whatever damage AI does to society is like a,
• 37:03
  SPEAKER_01: is like a swamp thing or like a Democrats thing.
• 37:07
  SPEAKER_01: And like, they're going to, they're going to walk away from it.
• 37:10
  SPEAKER_01: And Democrats are going to be like kind of holding the ball.
• 37:12
  SPEAKER_01: Cause they're, they're trying to ingratiate themselves with the,
• 37:18
  SPEAKER_01: The AI broligarchs.
• 37:19
  SPEAKER_00: And I think we need to talk about other things.
• 37:21
  SPEAKER_00: I just want to say for the record,
• 37:22
  SPEAKER_00: I think like every element of that is wrong,
• 37:25
  SPEAKER_00: like top to I think you're mischaracterizing what Democrats are doing.
• 37:29
  SPEAKER_00: You're mischaracterizing what the situation is.
• 37:31
  You're mischaracterizing the politics like top to bottom,
• 37:34
  completely incorrect.
• 37:36
  SPEAKER_00: Interesting.
• 37:36
  SPEAKER_00: Like, I think Democrats are being relentlessly hostile to AI.
• 37:42
  SPEAKER_00: And not trying at all to ingratiate themselves.
• 37:46
  SPEAKER_00: I don't think there is a bubble that's going to pop.
• 37:48
  SPEAKER_00: I don't I don't think any of that is right.
• 37:52
  I I think that I think that like a concerted protest movement
• 37:56
  of a few million people could.
• 37:59
  like wreck the u.s economy if people just stop paying the ai
• 38:01
  companies money but we
• 38:03
  can we can wait until the new year i'll just put i'll just put
• 38:05
  that in my like
• 38:06
  predictions for 2026 but okay let's talk about um the most
• 38:10
  important issue that
• 38:11
  swing voters care about rob reiner on the um on the other side
• 38:14
  of a break okay if
• 38:16
  you want to hear that part of the conversation you can go to
• 38:18
  politics.fm and
• 38:20
  SPEAKER_01: upgrade your subscription