Latest / 3 and Out with John Middlekauff / NFL & NFL and CFB Best Bets: NFL's Wildcard Weekend & College Football Playoff's Semi-Finals
Transcript
- 0:01Speaker 1: The volume.
- 0:14Speaker 2: What is going on everybody? John Middlecoff three and out podcast.
- 0:20Speaker 2: Hopefully everyone is doing well. We are brought to you
- 0:22Speaker 2: by my friends at Zone Pouches. Love those guys. Today
- 0:28Speaker 2: will be a pretty straightforward show. I will be joined
- 0:33Speaker 2: by friend of the program, fellow father why technically I'm
- 0:37Speaker 2: not a father yet, the child still in the belly stuck.
- 0:40Speaker 2: He is had a baby last I think a couple
- 0:43Speaker 2: of weeks ago, and I wanted to bring him on
- 0:46Speaker 2: because we've got the college football playoff game starting tomorrow.
- 0:48Speaker 2: We're going to talk about that at the end. We
- 0:51Speaker 2: ended up just firing through a bunch of NFL you know,
- 0:53Speaker 2: from the super Bowl standpoint to the game standpoint this
- 0:57Speaker 2: weekend through Monday. Start off with asking him about John Harbaugh,
- 1:01Speaker 2: who obviously was He's a Ravens fan, so some get
- 1:05Speaker 2: his thoughts on that, but Stucky will bang out. Uh,
- 1:09Speaker 2: he's got stats galore. We will dive into the individual games.
- 1:13Speaker 2: Not an easy week to pick, I mean, unless you're
- 1:16Speaker 2: hammering the Rams money line. These games can get weird.
- 1:20Speaker 2: This season's been weird. I would imagine some weird stuff
- 1:24Speaker 2: is gonna happen this weekend. So we will we'll get
- 1:27Speaker 2: ahead of it. That will be the show today. Yesterday
- 1:30Speaker 2: we discussed obviously Harbaugh getting fired John Harbaugh, h I
- 1:35Speaker 2: guess you knew that. Probably you know, from eber Flus
- 1:38Speaker 2: to Kingsbury some of those situations. I will do a
- 1:42Speaker 2: reaction to Saturday night or excuse me, Thursday night Miami
- 1:47Speaker 2: playing Old miss which is actually, I want to say,
- 1:50Speaker 2: in my backyard, but it's about an hour drive from
- 1:52Speaker 2: where I'm at. It's a pain in the ass to
- 1:55Speaker 2: get to. So I'm just gonna watch it on television,
- 1:56Speaker 2: but we'll do a live reaction on YouTube. After that.
- 1:59Speaker 2: I'll do a big mail bag on for Fugazi Friday
- 2:02Speaker 2: at John Middlecoff is the Instagram, So fire in those
- 2:06Speaker 2: dms and we'll do a big mail bag on for
- 2:10Speaker 2: Friday for sure. But other than that, you guys know
- 2:13Speaker 2: the drill. Subscribe if you listen on Collins Feed, if
- 2:16Speaker 2: you listen on you know, subscribe to my own feed
- 2:20Speaker 2: three and out feed, Apple, Spotify. We got you covered.
- 2:23Speaker 2: From an audio standpoint, we have YouTube will be live Friday, Saturday, Sunday.
- 2:31Speaker 2: I think Monday is going to be our first show
- 2:33Speaker 2: on Netflix, so it'll be uploaded on Netflix Monday morning.
- 2:37Speaker 2: That's the plan right now. I have another you know,
- 2:41Speaker 2: marketing business call on Friday to kind of iron out
- 2:44Speaker 2: some more stuff. But as of now, that is the plan.
- 2:48Speaker 2: We will keep you updated and again nothing changes here,
- 2:52Speaker 2: so we will just keep doing the same old podcast
- 2:54Speaker 2: that we've been doing for a long long time and
- 2:56Speaker 2: just keep swinging our pick, talking a little ball, talking
- 2:59Speaker 2: life and uh and yeah see where it goes. But
- 3:03Speaker 2: let's just let's just dive right into Stucky. Okay. This
- 3:07Speaker 2: is always the time of year where you start getting
- 3:09Speaker 2: a little bittersweet because you start counting the games, and
- 3:15Speaker 2: for me, this is one of the last probably the
- 3:18Speaker 2: lastest pure weekends of football, especially with my life. Stucky.
- 3:21Speaker 2: I have my baby has a massive head and has
- 3:24Speaker 2: flipped the wrong way. So we have a scheduled sea
- 3:27Speaker 2: section right now next week on Thursday. So I I
- 3:30Speaker 2: this this Thursday through Monday. Stretcher boy is gonna soak
- 3:35Speaker 2: up big time. How you doing man? This is this
- 3:40Speaker 2: is a rough time of year in a weird way
- 3:41Speaker 2: because it should be great.
- 3:43Speaker 1: Yeah, the same thing happened to us and then we
- 3:47Speaker 1: ended up having to go even earlier, a week earlier
- 3:49Speaker 1: because they're my wife's blood pressure like spike shed like
- 3:53Speaker 1: pretty clamps. Yes, so we had an emergency sea section,
- 3:57Speaker 1: but that was the same thing that happened. And yeah,
- 3:59Speaker 1: I just count, like, yeah, I believe you are fifteen
- 4:02Speaker 1: football games left and seven of them are this weekend.
- 4:09Speaker 2: Jeez, and put it right there.
- 4:12Speaker 1: Yeah, this is the weekend you really got to cherish
- 4:14Speaker 1: because you got college football semi on Thursday, college football
- 4:17Speaker 1: semi on Friday, and then wild card Wildcard Wildcard, so
- 4:22Speaker 1: five straight days a playoff football, and then it'll really
- 4:27Speaker 1: hit you on like Tuesday morning, you're like, wow, especially
- 4:32Speaker 1: for you, So congrats. I wish everything. I wish you
- 4:37Speaker 1: well and I hope everything goes well. But yeah, this
- 4:41Speaker 1: is the this is the time it really starts to
- 4:43Speaker 1: hit you. But I am very excited for this weekend.
- 4:45Speaker 2: I am too. And before we dive in any football,
- 4:49Speaker 2: you are a Ravens fan. Obviously. John Harbaugh is one
- 4:53Speaker 2: of the central figures of football, especially just because of
- 4:56Speaker 2: his football family. I mean, he played in one of
- 4:58Speaker 2: the most famous Super Bowls of all time. He played
- 4:59Speaker 2: against his brother. I don't think we're ever seeing that
- 5:02Speaker 2: one again unless they play each other, which you never
- 5:05Speaker 2: know if he goes to the Giants or whatever reg Wrexham
- 5:07Speaker 2: in a couple of years. But your thoughts, because my
- 5:10Speaker 2: initial thought was obviously you and I and it had
- 5:13Speaker 2: been out there, people kind of rumbling about it. But
- 5:16Speaker 2: when you see it, it wasn't truly a wow moment.
- 5:19Speaker 1: I thought, yeah, now I I I didn't know if
- 5:24Speaker 1: it was going to happen, but I had a feeling
- 5:26Speaker 1: it would. And I do think that it makes sense
- 5:31Speaker 1: from an organizational standpoint. I mean, sometimes you just I
- 5:35Speaker 1: think it it will probably work for both parties. I
- 5:37Speaker 1: think that just I think Carball and the organization needed
- 5:41Speaker 1: a change. You've had all of these blown leads, these
- 5:45Speaker 1: heartbreaking losses to end seasons over the years, and I
- 5:49Speaker 1: think losing this, losing to the Steelers to miss the
- 5:52Speaker 1: playoffs in the fashion that they did, was the straw
- 5:55Speaker 1: that broke the camel's back. And I didn't say like
- 5:58Speaker 1: I was it was. I thought, I think Carball was
- 6:00Speaker 1: a good coach, and I think he did a tremendous
- 6:02Speaker 1: job over his tenure, brought a Super Bowl to Baltimore.
- 6:07Speaker 1: But I did that decision not to run another play
- 6:10Speaker 1: and get more yards, that is the hardest stadium to
- 6:12Speaker 1: kick in in the NFL, and to go back two
- 6:16Speaker 1: yards with a young kicker, I.
- 6:21Speaker 2: Best kicker just missed then extra point, just.
- 6:23Speaker 1: Missed an extra point. So that was just a gut
- 6:29Speaker 1: punch in a tough way for Harball to end his
- 6:33Speaker 1: eighteen year tenure in Baltimore. But I do think it
- 6:37Speaker 1: was time. And it seemed also that like the relationship
- 6:43Speaker 1: between Lamar and Harball was potentially splintered a bit, so
- 6:48Speaker 1: that might have had something to do with it. We'll
- 6:51Speaker 1: see how much say Lamar has in this decision and
- 6:56Speaker 1: what his how long his future will be in Baltimore.
- 7:02Speaker 1: But it's I as a Ravens fan, I'm okay with it,
- 7:05Speaker 1: even though I liked Harble. A lot of a lot
- 7:07Speaker 1: of fans are delusional. Like you go to any fan
- 7:09Speaker 1: base in the NFL, there's so many that just think,
- 7:12Speaker 1: no matter what, no matter who they are, they think
- 7:14Speaker 1: their coach is awful. Right, it could be anyone Like
- 7:16Speaker 1: there's there's there's a ton of forty nine Ers fans.
- 7:17Speaker 1: I think Shanahan's awful. There's a ton of any fan
- 7:21Speaker 1: base you're you find, you'll just see like Shanahan because
- 7:27Speaker 1: they're less like you're winning super Bowls every year.
- 7:29Speaker 2: He shut them up a little bit this year, but
- 7:31Speaker 2: it got it last year got ugly.
- 7:33Speaker 1: Yeah, but peoplen't realize, like winning super Bowls is hard.
- 7:36Speaker 1: Like but I liked Harball, but I thought it was
- 7:40Speaker 1: time for a change. I'm very curious to see who
- 7:43Speaker 1: they bring in and what's up.
- 7:46Speaker 2: What's your guess.
- 7:49Speaker 1: I'm kind of thinking maybe Chrishula is a name that
- 7:56Speaker 1: I could see them going, But I just I don't
- 7:58Speaker 1: know that they're actually they want to take what's.
- 8:02Speaker 2: That not Jesse Minter?
- 8:04Speaker 1: I could yeah, would mintor I could see mintor.
- 8:07Speaker 2: Too mintor Cliff Kingsbury combo.
- 8:11Speaker 1: Yeah, that that's a lot of the rumblings are around Cliff.
- 8:14Speaker 1: I don't know if he would be I don't like
- 8:16Speaker 1: Cliff as a head coach. I think he can be
- 8:19Speaker 1: a good offensive coordinator, but that'll come down to I
- 8:25Speaker 1: could see that working with Lamar.
- 8:27Speaker 2: But such a soft, soft offense for Baltimore, you know,
- 8:31Speaker 2: even with when they got run heavy with Rome and
- 8:33Speaker 2: it's a physical run game. Cliff, I don't know, man,
- 8:36Speaker 2: I I you're talking to a Cliff hater from a
- 8:39Speaker 2: football standpoint. Seems like a great guy.
- 8:41Speaker 1: No, I'm not a big Cliff guy either. I would not.
- 8:44Speaker 1: Hopefully he's not the head coach. I would. I've been trash.
- 8:47Speaker 2: That would be insane. I mean, you can't fire John
- 8:50Speaker 2: Harball for Cliff Kingsbury. If I was a raven fan,
- 8:52Speaker 2: I would I would boycott. That's not allowed.
- 8:54Speaker 1: I would actually love if it's mentor so we'll see.
- 9:00Speaker 1: It'll it'll be an interesting offseason. There's also like the
- 9:03Speaker 1: you just can't not like Lamar in his in his prime,
- 9:09Speaker 1: in his peak, was as good as any quarterback you'll
- 9:12Speaker 1: ever see in this league. But part of what made
- 9:16Speaker 1: him so dominant was his speed and his ability. You
- 9:22Speaker 1: had to respect his rushing ability and his ability to
- 9:25Speaker 1: create and you know by time and scramble and then
- 9:29Speaker 1: hit plays downfield. He's not getting any younger. And the
- 9:32Speaker 1: accumulation of all these injuries, what does that do to
- 9:35Speaker 1: him over time? Hard to say. Obviously wasn't healthy this year.
- 9:40Speaker 1: But yeah, I'm super cute. It's gonna be a very
- 9:43Speaker 1: very interesting offseason. I think just as important as nailing
- 9:46Speaker 1: the head coach. They need to go this is my number,
- 9:51Speaker 1: this will be it, and they have a really good,
- 9:52Speaker 1: uh GM, really good, own a really good scout team.
- 9:56Speaker 1: Their number one priority in the draft has to addressing
- 10:01Speaker 1: the edge rush. They had no edge rush, and it
- 10:04Speaker 1: is very difficult to win in the NFL in twenty
- 10:07Speaker 1: twenty five if you can't get pressure. And I mean
- 10:09Speaker 1: that's gonna be a concern. We're gonna talk to forty
- 10:11Speaker 1: nin ers. That's gonna be a concern for the forty
- 10:12Speaker 1: nine ers if they want to make like that's probably
- 10:14Speaker 1: gonna prevent them from making a run. Is their defense
- 10:16Speaker 1: and their inability to generate pressure, and that plagued the
- 10:19Speaker 1: Ravens all year. They need to address that, whether it's
- 10:21Speaker 1: in for agency or the draft. This is a draft
- 10:24Speaker 1: class that's loaded with edge talent, so they need they
- 10:28Speaker 1: need to hit there because a lot of the other
- 10:31Speaker 1: pieces are there for them to make a run next year.
- 10:35Speaker 1: But it'll be an interesting offseason in Baltimore for sure.
- 10:39Speaker 2: That's where I think it's a big advantage for you know,
- 10:42Speaker 2: the Chiefs and the blow in that game and they
- 10:45Speaker 2: draft ninth, it's pretty easy to move up a couple
- 10:48Speaker 2: spots and get all of a sudden, it's like, God,
- 10:50Speaker 2: the Chief's got the best defensive lineman in the draft,
- 10:53Speaker 2: you know, and that's that can change your future.
- 10:56Speaker 1: You know, the other rad so Raiders to make a sixty.
- 11:02Speaker 2: But you had mentioned it last week once the Cowboys
- 11:04Speaker 2: started tanking at halftime, which a little ironic because I
- 11:07Speaker 2: didn't even own they don't own their pick, right they
- 11:10Speaker 2: have the Packers picks or didn't even matter. I don't know,
- 11:14Speaker 2: I mean classic Cowboys. What a win for uh? Jet
- 11:18Speaker 2: the Jets? Yeah, the Jets have their The Jets had
- 11:21Speaker 2: a pretty good day, right, I mean the Jets, Uh,
- 11:24Speaker 2: obviously they stink. But the other thing is I saw
- 11:28Speaker 2: Stefanski spend a couple of days with the Giants, and
- 11:30Speaker 2: now you know Harbaugh. You couldn't hire Stefanski over Harbaugh.
- 11:34Speaker 2: But if you're Stefanski, if you've just been with the
- 11:38Speaker 2: most dysfunctional organization or one of them in all of
- 11:40Speaker 2: sports for a while, what do you just want to
- 11:43Speaker 2: take a deep breath? And if I'm Mara, the easiest
- 11:47Speaker 2: way to get people like Okay, John you're back, Convince Harbaugh.
- 11:52Speaker 2: Use him as your offensive coordinator. Hey, Kevin, all you
- 11:55Speaker 2: got to do is focus on offense. Will pay you
- 11:56Speaker 2: like five six million dollars a year. You might just
- 11:58Speaker 2: be one and done. You don't want the Cardinals, the Titans.
- 12:02Speaker 2: This that's the same thing you were just dealing with.
- 12:04Speaker 2: Come here and you'll have the pick of the litter
- 12:06Speaker 2: and you'll stock where. I wonder if they're trying a
- 12:08Speaker 2: little package deal. Obviously they didn't know Harball was gonna
- 12:11Speaker 2: be available when they first got Stefanski. But if I'm them,
- 12:14Speaker 2: I double down Stefanski and be like, listen, come here
- 12:17Speaker 2: with John. He'll let you run the offense. Can you
- 12:20Speaker 2: imagine that if you're a Giants fan and you got
- 12:22Speaker 2: Harbaugh's head coach Toefanski in that list. I know people
- 12:24Speaker 2: are gonna want Stefanski as their head coach. But if
- 12:26Speaker 2: you're Stefanski, why would you want these organizations where people
- 12:30Speaker 2: just go like two and three and done all the time.
- 12:32Speaker 2: I wouldn't touch these teams that are available.
- 12:35Speaker 1: I mean, that would be that would be very intriguing
- 12:37Speaker 1: if they got Harball and Stefanski, because yeah, I mean
- 12:41Speaker 1: STEFANSI he was just put in a position where how
- 12:43Speaker 1: was he going to succeed Number one in that division?
- 12:46Speaker 1: Number two with it Deshaun Watson, and he made it
- 12:48Speaker 1: clear they got that his team got that hour away
- 12:51Speaker 1: that he disagreed with the Watson trade.
- 12:54Speaker 2: Is that leaked in the last couple of days. I
- 12:56Speaker 2: didn't even see that.
- 12:56Speaker 1: They got leaked like an hour after it was announced
- 12:58Speaker 1: he was fired. So yeah, he was just putting. I mean,
- 13:02Speaker 1: two time Coach of the Year, by the way, the
- 13:04Speaker 1: last five besides O'Connell last year, all of the coach
- 13:09Speaker 1: of the year since twenty nineteen were fired. Variable who's
- 13:13Speaker 1: obviously been rehired, but Harball Stefanski twice, Who's who's on
- 13:22Speaker 1: the Why is his name slipped me? The Bears coach
- 13:26Speaker 1: at Naggi got fired. It's pretty crazy how quick things
- 13:30Speaker 1: can turn in the NFL. I think that would be great.
- 13:33Speaker 1: And then maybe there's like Harpball convinced Wink Martindale to
- 13:36Speaker 1: come be the defensive coordinator. But if they just need
- 13:40Speaker 1: to address like the secondary a bit, and if they
- 13:43Speaker 1: can get that, and I think it's Stefanski offense, but
- 13:45Speaker 1: the way he wants to operate his offense with a
- 13:47Speaker 1: mobile quarterback in dark, yeah, there's there's potential there. So yeah,
- 13:51Speaker 1: that's I think that would be a great landing spot
- 13:54Speaker 1: for Stefanski. And I think that would be a win
- 13:57Speaker 1: for the Giants, that they can pull that off.
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- 15:46Speaker 2: New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. Okay, let's just stay on
- 15:56Speaker 2: the NFL. We'll get to college a little bit later.
- 15:58Speaker 2: But I just wrote down a question. I'll I asked
- 16:01Speaker 2: this to you, and this is what I wrote down.
- 16:02Speaker 2: I said, who can win the Super Bowl? Let's start
- 16:04Speaker 2: there before we even dive into the games. And obviously,
- 16:07Speaker 2: if you're a one seed, you just got to win
- 16:09Speaker 2: two games both one seeds could get to the super Bowl,
- 16:11Speaker 2: and if you can get to the super Bowl, you
- 16:12Speaker 2: can win the Super Bowl. Right, And then I wrote
- 16:15Speaker 2: down in the AFC, I wrote down the Jags, the Pats,
- 16:20Speaker 2: the Texans, and the Bills. And in the NFC I
- 16:23Speaker 2: only had two other teams beside Seattle, and that was
- 16:25Speaker 2: the Rams in Philadelphia. Now people be like, what about
- 16:28Speaker 2: the Bears. I'm sorry, if your defense is equally as
- 16:31Speaker 2: bad as the forty nine ers, I just can't take
- 16:32Speaker 2: you seriously as a Super Bowl contender. So I got
- 16:35Speaker 2: the two one seeds. I got four teams other than
- 16:38Speaker 2: that in the AFC and two in the NFC. So
- 16:40Speaker 2: I got a total of eight teams. Obviously the forty
- 16:43Speaker 2: nine Ers would have been one of those teams. But
- 16:46Speaker 2: they're just the Attrician is just falling off a cliff.
- 16:49Speaker 2: I can't take them seriously. And again the Bears, I
- 16:52Speaker 2: put them in a similar bucket with their defense is
- 16:55Speaker 2: just horrendous. It's just bad, and you can't they have
- 16:59Speaker 2: to win three games just to get there, and then
- 17:01Speaker 2: at fourth I can't even Bears fans would have to acknowledge.
- 17:05Speaker 2: And the ironic part about that is their defensive franchise.
- 17:08Speaker 2: Now they have this offensive wizard and their defense stinks.
- 17:11Speaker 2: It's not even necessarily their fall. I mean, Jalen Johnson
- 17:13Speaker 2: looks really slow. Their dbs just look slow. And now
- 17:17Speaker 2: I get it's Saint Brown and Jameson Williams are good,
- 17:19Speaker 2: But you could I knew the Lions. It was so obvious,
- 17:21Speaker 2: like this is a classic Dan Campbell's spot, He's gonna
- 17:24Speaker 2: play with Pride Bears a little bit of a calm down.
- 17:27Speaker 2: It wasn't even just the Niner game. They had a
- 17:28Speaker 2: pretty crazy month, two Packer games. You know, it felt
- 17:32Speaker 2: like they kind of came out a little slow, and
- 17:34Speaker 2: those two receivers just running left and right. So do
- 17:37Speaker 2: you think that's fair? Do you have anyone else in
- 17:39Speaker 2: that mix? Yeah?
- 17:41Speaker 1: I mean, look, the Bears a great year for Ben Johnson,
- 17:44Speaker 1: stud like should be one of it. It was in
- 17:50Speaker 1: should have been in the running for a Coach of
- 17:51Speaker 1: the year. What he did with them and Caleb Williams
- 17:54Speaker 1: was tremendous. But this is a team. They were the first,
- 17:57Speaker 1: They were only the second teams as nineteen eighty or
- 18:00Speaker 1: the strike here in eighty two that won a division
- 18:03Speaker 1: with a losing division record twenty ten chiefs with the
- 18:06Speaker 1: other team they usually could have been owed six in
- 18:08Speaker 1: their division. They had an on side kick recovery against
- 18:10Speaker 1: the Packers and that crazy win, and then then they
- 18:13Speaker 1: needed a long kickoff return to beat the JJ McCarthy
- 18:16Speaker 1: and the Vikings. Otherwise they would have been owned six
- 18:18Speaker 1: in the division, and they had NFL record six wins
- 18:21Speaker 1: when trailing under two minutes. They usually could have lost
- 18:23Speaker 1: to the Raiders, the Commanders they beat both by one.
- 18:26Speaker 1: The Bengals with Flacco they won in the final seconds there,
- 18:29Speaker 1: the Giants they won in the final seconds there, the Vikings,
- 18:32Speaker 1: the Steelers with Rudolph, and the Packers with Willis Like,
- 18:37Speaker 1: this team easily could have lost eleven games. So yes,
- 18:42Speaker 1: I guess I'll start in the NFC.
- 18:47Speaker 2: To those their division record. They got swept by the
- 18:49Speaker 2: line four and they split with the other two teams
- 18:52Speaker 2: because JJ beat them week one.
- 18:53Speaker 1: You're right, yeah, two and four. Only two teams since
- 18:56Speaker 1: nineteen eighty two won their division with a losing division record.
- 19:00Speaker 1: Wild Yeah, so especially in that division that the fact
- 19:04Speaker 1: that they still want it is pretty crazy.
- 19:07Speaker 2: Someone asked me, actually in a DM, could the Bears
- 19:10Speaker 2: be one of the first teams ever to win their division,
- 19:12Speaker 2: and like, you could make the argument that they're the
- 19:14Speaker 2: worst team in the division. He's like, well, I Minnesota
- 19:18Speaker 2: to me with their quarterback situation, the Bears quarterback situation
- 19:20Speaker 2: is dramatically better. So I I would argue that the
- 19:24Speaker 2: Packers clearly would have won that division if it didn't
- 19:26Speaker 2: just fall off a cliff in December with.
- 19:28Speaker 1: Injuries, right, Yes, yes, I agree.
- 19:31Speaker 2: And the Lions.
- 19:32Speaker 1: The Lions injury.
- 19:33Speaker 2: Coaching situation, but the Lions had coaching situations. It's like
- 19:36Speaker 2: Johnny Morton got fired, Dan, I thought you fired him
- 19:38Speaker 2: like two months ago. You know, he just got to
- 19:41Speaker 2: keep his office.
- 19:43Speaker 1: Yeah, the Lions had a bunch of injuries too, defense,
- 19:45Speaker 1: offensive line, but yeah, the their coordinator losses and and
- 19:49Speaker 1: the coaching stuff definitely didn't help. But all right, so
- 19:52Speaker 1: I'll start in the NFC, Like, yeah, you it's so
- 19:55Speaker 1: wide open because I can nitpick at every team, Like
- 19:59Speaker 1: the Rams, yes, obviously, the Panthers, no, clear, No, they
- 20:03Speaker 1: cannot win it. The Eagles, yes, although that offense it's scary.
- 20:10Speaker 1: The forty nine Ers, No, it's the defense not good enough.
- 20:14Speaker 1: So I have the Eagles, Rams, the Seahawks. Can I
- 20:17Speaker 1: see Donald winning a Super Bowl's hard, but they're the
- 20:20Speaker 1: one seed. With that defense, you have to put them
- 20:22Speaker 1: in there. So that's three. The Bears, No, not with
- 20:25Speaker 1: that defense. The Packers, I'm gonna say yes.
- 20:35Speaker 2: Did.
- 20:35Speaker 1: The defense has fallen off with the injuries, especially to Parsons,
- 20:38Speaker 1: But I think they beat the Bears. I mean they're
- 20:40Speaker 1: the seventh Sea. That's tough. They beat the Bears, and
- 20:42Speaker 1: then they would play the Seahawks like, could you get
- 20:45Speaker 1: a Donald game? Sure? And then like it's hard for
- 20:50Speaker 1: me to see them beating the Rams. But I'll hesitantly
- 20:53Speaker 1: put the Packers. Like their offense is going to be
- 20:55Speaker 1: healthy now they can just outscore teams. So that's four
- 20:59Speaker 1: in the NFC. In the AFC, your Broncos the one seat,
- 21:04Speaker 1: so you have to put them there. Steelers no, Texans
- 21:10Speaker 1: with that defense, yeah, Jags yes, Bills yes, Patriots, Chargers no,
- 21:19Speaker 1: with that offensive line, I guess Patriots yes. So as
- 21:25Speaker 1: the two seed, I'm not a full on believer yet.
- 21:27Speaker 1: We'll get to that, but yeah, I mean I I
- 21:31Speaker 1: in the AFC, honestly, the only team I can't see
- 21:35Speaker 1: winning it is the Steelers. The Charter's offensive line is
- 21:39Speaker 1: gonna make it tough. But with that defense, Harvall Herbert,
- 21:42Speaker 1: I mean, you can't completely count them out. So I
- 21:44Speaker 1: think the FC like, you can tell me any team,
- 21:46Speaker 1: but the Steelers got to the super Bowl, and I
- 21:50Speaker 1: wouldn't be shocked.
- 21:51Speaker 2: Okay, let's just start Saturday afternoon. Rams, massive favorite on
- 21:56Speaker 2: the road against a team that lost in a winner
- 21:59Speaker 2: get in game because it wasn't actually a winner get
- 22:01Speaker 2: in game because Atlanta, as we saw, won the game,
- 22:04Speaker 2: which for a split second it felt like Tyler Shuck
- 22:06Speaker 2: was going to lead him down the field and win
- 22:08Speaker 2: the game that he throws the pick. I don't I
- 22:11Speaker 2: haven't even checked the weather in Carolina, but it can be.
- 22:14Speaker 2: This isn't you know. I think when you say some
- 22:15Speaker 2: of these southern places, you know, in Tampa it was raining,
- 22:18Speaker 2: but it wasn't cold. Carolina could get cold. What I
- 22:23Speaker 2: know you're a weather guy because you what's the outlook there?
- 22:27Speaker 2: This is just stay away from me. The ten and
- 22:29Speaker 2: a half, that's a huge number, I thought the Rams.
- 22:33Speaker 2: If Jacobe, if that play doesn't get called back, I
- 22:35Speaker 2: think it called it a personal foul on the offensive
- 22:39Speaker 2: lineman Wilson caught like a seventy yard bomb and it
- 22:42Speaker 2: was twenty three to twenty felt like they were gonna score.
- 22:44Speaker 2: It's gonna be twenty seven to twenty three, and you're like,
- 22:46Speaker 2: what is going You could see the look on mcveagh's
- 22:48Speaker 2: face where he felt a little lost, like I don't
- 22:52Speaker 2: know what to do here.
- 22:53Speaker 1: Yeah, in a game where he wanted to play the
- 22:55Speaker 1: starters to play better.
- 22:56Speaker 2: He was trying to win.
- 22:57Speaker 1: Yeah, what is going on against a team that has
- 23:00Speaker 1: been that is just basically a practice squad with all
- 23:03Speaker 1: our injuries, that's been getting blown out every week. Wilson.
- 23:05Speaker 2: Wilson looked like Puka Naku in that game. He's making
- 23:07Speaker 2: sweet plays.
- 23:08Speaker 1: Yeah, he was. He was incredible, incredible year for him. Yeah.
- 23:13Speaker 1: So this if this is at ten and a half eleven,
- 23:16Speaker 1: which would be the largest road favorite in NFL playoff history,
- 23:20Speaker 1: which is pretty insane. These two teams played in November.
- 23:24Speaker 1: The spread closed ten. The Panthers won outright, but it
- 23:27Speaker 1: was extremely fluky. I mean, the Rams in that game
- 23:32Speaker 1: had a sixty percent success rate. They led the league
- 23:37Speaker 1: for the entire season at fifty percent. They had a
- 23:39Speaker 1: seventy six percent rush success rate, which is insane, by
- 23:44Speaker 1: the way, they led the league there at fifty percent.
- 23:48Speaker 1: So but what happened in that game while you had
- 23:53Speaker 1: Stafford pick six, you had a fourth down bomb, another
- 23:57Speaker 1: fourth down bomb, and a third eight thirty five yard touchdown.
- 24:02Speaker 1: Like not sustainable. The Panthers in that game they only
- 24:05Speaker 1: had a thirty thirty eight percent success free which would
- 24:09Speaker 1: have been like bottom four in the league. They didn't
- 24:10Speaker 1: do much except hit these like very high leverage plays
- 24:14Speaker 1: and they rams turned it over three times. However, I
- 24:17Speaker 1: will say in that game, they didn't have any of
- 24:21Speaker 1: their linebackers who were hurt. They didn't have j. C. Horn,
- 24:24Speaker 1: who had a concussion, their top corner. They didn't have Morigg,
- 24:28Speaker 1: They're starting safety who was suspended for the at the
- 24:32Speaker 1: end of the forty nine ers game the week before,
- 24:33Speaker 1: so they were extremely shorthanded on defense. They still forced
- 24:36Speaker 1: Stafford into a bunch of mistakes. And I will say,
- 24:40Speaker 1: for whatever reason, this Stafford has really struggled against his
- 24:47Speaker 1: old coordinators Raheem Morris and everro I think he's faced
- 24:52Speaker 1: them four times and he has eleven interceptions. And ever Roh,
- 24:57Speaker 1: who I think he's a really good defenseve coordinator. He
- 25:00Speaker 1: doesn't really have a lot of talent to work with
- 25:01Speaker 1: in Carolina. But that McVeigh Shanahan Tree this year, he
- 25:05Speaker 1: kind of owned them. I mean you had Stafford who
- 25:09Speaker 1: had the three turnovers and they were completely decimated. Brock
- 25:13Speaker 1: Purdy had what three picks against the Panthers, and Jordan
- 25:17Speaker 1: Love lost outright to the Panthers at home. So like
- 25:20Speaker 1: their defense has something on this, and Stafford historically has
- 25:23Speaker 1: struggled with defenses. You don't want to blitz him, and
- 25:27Speaker 1: I don't think Carolina will blitz say Historically, don't the
- 25:30Speaker 1: defenses that disguise their coverages post snap Stafford has struggled
- 25:34Speaker 1: with if you want to, like go in to where
- 25:36Speaker 1: Stafford struggles. The Panthers disguise their coverages post snap at
- 25:39Speaker 1: the highest rate in the league. So I think that
- 25:41Speaker 1: they're going to try, you know, they're going to play
- 25:43Speaker 1: a ton of Cover three, disguise their coverages, try and
- 25:46Speaker 1: take away explosive plays. So I think they think Baby
- 25:49Speaker 1: can hang a little bit more than some people think.
- 25:52Speaker 1: And also you have to think is Kevin Dotson healthy?
- 25:54Speaker 1: The offensive line for the Rams is not the same
- 25:56Speaker 1: without him. His the hell healthy? Is Devontae Adams right.
- 25:58Speaker 1: He had two touchdowns in the first meeting. So all
- 26:01Speaker 1: this is to say that I'm looking at an under.
- 26:03Speaker 1: I want to get a forty seven. It's at forty
- 26:05Speaker 1: six and a half right now outdoor totals. By the way,
- 26:07Speaker 1: in the wildcard round above forty four thirty one to
- 26:12Speaker 1: ten to the under since two thousand and thirty, that's
- 26:15Speaker 1: seventy six percent. Just an incredible clip. But I think
- 26:19Speaker 1: that the Panthers defense, which will be healthier this time around,
- 26:22Speaker 1: play out of zone? Can Can they keep the Rams
- 26:25Speaker 1: to like twenty eight? Sure? And I do this Panthers offense,
- 26:30Speaker 1: it's I can't see them doing much like there are
- 26:34Speaker 1: they going to hit a bunch of fourth down bombs again? Maybe?
- 26:36Speaker 1: But the rushing offense is broken. I mean this is
- 26:39Speaker 1: since week ten. They're twenty seventh in rush success right
- 26:42Speaker 1: twenty ninth and rush EPA. Their backs are worn down
- 26:47Speaker 1: like Bryce Young, I can't see him shredding this Rams defense.
- 26:51Speaker 1: So what is the ceiling for the Panthers. It's seventeen,
- 26:55Speaker 1: But I wouldn't be shocked if they only scored ten points.
- 26:57Speaker 1: It's hard for me to see them doing much. Maybe
- 27:00Speaker 1: there's some home playoff voodoo with the crowd, which should
- 27:04Speaker 1: be excellent, but I think the number is about right.
- 27:08Speaker 1: I'm looking at an under here. This to me, I
- 27:10Speaker 1: project this like twenty eight seventeen Rams. Wouldn't be surprised
- 27:13Speaker 1: that it's like twenty eight ten Rams or or twenty
- 27:15Speaker 1: four fourteen somewhere in that ballpark. Another really small little thing.
- 27:21Speaker 1: These are two of the best kickoff teams in the
- 27:24Speaker 1: NFL as far as opposing starting field position. They both
- 27:27Speaker 1: do it really well. So that's just like, you know,
- 27:29Speaker 1: an extra ten maybe fifteen yards on some drives that
- 27:33Speaker 1: the other offense will have to go. Weather should be good,
- 27:36Speaker 1: though it's like going to be like sixty I think
- 27:38Speaker 1: not much wind, but it is outdoors. But I'm looking
- 27:42Speaker 1: at the under. I do think the Rams should advance
- 27:44Speaker 1: unless it is an extremely fluky game and the Rams
- 27:49Speaker 1: still had a chance to win that game despite all
- 27:51Speaker 1: those flukes. But I'm looking at under there. I don't
- 27:53Speaker 1: really love anything.
- 27:54Speaker 2: Though, Okay, if I had to list the top five
- 27:57Speaker 2: games of just that I enjoy the most during the
- 28:01Speaker 2: twenty twenty five season, I think both Bears and Green
- 28:04Speaker 2: Bay games would be there. The first time they matched
- 28:06Speaker 2: up in Lambeau was just the second half was thrilling,
- 28:10Speaker 2: and obviously the ending in the second one is one
- 28:12Speaker 2: of the crazier things you saw all season long. These games.
- 28:16Speaker 2: The Ben Johnson thing has resurrected this rivalry which did
- 28:19Speaker 2: not exist because, as Aaron Rodgers would tell you, I
- 28:21Speaker 2: fucking own you, and he did. It was a joke.
- 28:24Speaker 2: And I just think there's something cool about this matchup.
- 28:28Speaker 2: Now they get to play. I heard a stat that
- 28:30Speaker 2: they've only played twice in the history of the playoffs,
- 28:32Speaker 2: and they've both been in Chicago, one going back to
- 28:34Speaker 2: the forties, and then one was that Cutler game in
- 28:36Speaker 2: two thousand. I guess it would have been like January
- 28:39Speaker 2: twenty eleven. But listen, the Bears never led in either
- 28:44Speaker 2: game to the final play, right, so it took beyond
- 28:48Speaker 2: side kick. I just I don't know. There's something about me,
- 28:52Speaker 2: and I'm a guy that had money on green Bay
- 28:54Speaker 2: to make it to the Super Bowl, a cash out
- 28:57Speaker 2: of that one as it started getting ugly. But I
- 29:00Speaker 2: I've said I don't even like the Bears because of
- 29:03Speaker 2: their defense to make a legitimate run, But I don't
- 29:05Speaker 2: know if Green Bay's the team they could take advantage
- 29:07Speaker 2: of that. Now. Obviously they get essentially gave themselves a
- 29:11Speaker 2: bye last week, right, so that's gonna help. I think,
- 29:13Speaker 2: you know, Tom's coming back. They got some reinforcements coming.
- 29:16Speaker 2: You think it serves Jacobs, you know, a little bit,
- 29:19Speaker 2: to get a breather. I think the problem is I
- 29:22Speaker 2: see with them, and I've always supported Jordan Love, but
- 29:25Speaker 2: Malik Willis has gave their team a rushing element. I'm
- 29:29Speaker 2: not calling him Lamar Jackson, but he was huge for
- 29:31Speaker 2: them right movement wise, and that's not really how Jordan
- 29:34Speaker 2: Love plays. So this could be extremely cold. The thing
- 29:38Speaker 2: that was so cool about the second game is, you know,
- 29:42Speaker 2: in most of our adult lives, you know, unless you
- 29:45Speaker 2: go way back to like the Irlacker Briggs days, these
- 29:48Speaker 2: Bears home games just haven't mattered. And at night, and
- 29:51Speaker 2: we get so used to watching like the Ravens and
- 29:53Speaker 2: the Steelers and those plays rocking at night or Lambeau
- 29:56Speaker 2: rocking at night or Kansas City. Now you just kind
- 29:59Speaker 2: of forget that place will had a collegiate feel to it.
- 30:02Speaker 2: I mean, that place is gonna be on fucking fire.
- 30:06Speaker 2: I'm taking the Bears in this game play. You know,
- 30:08Speaker 2: as a home dog Ben Johnson. You know, I get
- 30:11Speaker 2: Lafloor might be fighting for his pre Bay job, right.
- 30:15Speaker 2: I mean now, he would immediately get another job with
- 30:18Speaker 2: one of these franchises, but there is a chance that
- 30:21Speaker 2: they don't extend him, right if he were to lose
- 30:23Speaker 2: this game by like ten points. Obviously, the Green Bay
- 30:26Speaker 2: Packers are well coached, but I'm gonna ride Ben Johnson
- 30:29Speaker 2: and a little bit of that Washington Commanders last year,
- 30:31Speaker 2: Ferry Dust on the franchise this year.
- 30:34Speaker 1: Yeah, this is the first home ploff game for the
- 30:36Speaker 1: Bears since the double doink, so crowd will be fired up.
- 30:41Speaker 1: I played the Packers plus one earlier this week since
- 30:47Speaker 1: I made them a favorite. I just went over the
- 30:50Speaker 1: Bears like a pretty fluky year. I mean, they also
- 30:53Speaker 1: were plus twenty two turnover margin, which led the league.
- 30:56Speaker 1: The Packers were I think dead even The Bears led
- 31:01Speaker 1: the NFL and takeaways and fewest amount of giveaways, and
- 31:05Speaker 1: they still needed like six miraculous wins against bad teams.
- 31:11Speaker 1: And I do you mentioned last week. I don't think
- 31:14Speaker 1: that that's insignificant getting a vibe. They tried. They tried, Yeah,
- 31:19Speaker 1: the Bear, but the Bears like week eighteen. Both these
- 31:22Speaker 1: teams had up. The vibe was in Week five. They
- 31:25Speaker 1: both had early season buys and then have dealt with
- 31:27Speaker 1: a number of injuries. The Packers literally took the week off,
- 31:32Speaker 1: spent the week prepping for this game, and I mean
- 31:36Speaker 1: they did nothing the Packers. If anyone watched that, yeah,
- 31:38Speaker 1: I've bet the Vikings in that game the Packers that
- 31:41Speaker 1: I think seven passing you aren't or something. I mean,
- 31:43Speaker 1: they literally just didn't do editing.
- 31:45Speaker 2: Gave Minnesota last week that was like a favorite bet
- 31:47Speaker 2: of the week.
- 31:48Speaker 1: Yeah, they did they did nothing. I mean they you
- 31:52Speaker 1: could tell that they just sat everyone. So they are
- 31:54Speaker 1: going to be rested. They're going to be healthier on offense.
- 31:57Speaker 1: Getting Tom back is huge, love has been if you
- 32:00Speaker 1: look at EPN and has been the best quarterback in
- 32:02Speaker 1: the NFL. With a clean pocket. Well, the Bears can't
- 32:04Speaker 1: get fresher. He's gonna have a clean pocket here, He's
- 32:06Speaker 1: gonna have his weapons, his offensive line is gonna be healthier,
- 32:10Speaker 1: and it's I just trust him over Caleb right now.
- 32:15Speaker 1: I mean Caleb, he's had a munty. He was improved
- 32:18Speaker 1: this year, but I mean he was still bottom three
- 32:21Speaker 1: in bad throw rate. You look at completion percentage over
- 32:26Speaker 1: expectation and EPA composite. Love was third, Caleb was twenty eighth,
- 32:31Speaker 1: early down drop back success rate, Packers seventh, Bears twenty six.
- 32:37Speaker 1: There's so I could go on and on. I mean,
- 32:39Speaker 1: the Bears.
- 32:39Speaker 2: Defense, it's the big plays with Chicago offensively.
- 32:43Speaker 1: Yes, but the Packers still do a good job of
- 32:45Speaker 1: limiting explosive plays. The Bears do not, and the Packers
- 32:48Speaker 1: hit as many explosives as any team. Like I think
- 32:50Speaker 1: that fate could face the favorite Green Bay. Now, Chicago's
- 32:54Speaker 1: gonna have success running the ball, and the Packers defense
- 32:56Speaker 1: has fallen off since week eleven, Like they were trending
- 32:59Speaker 1: towards the top five, top ten unit, and then you
- 33:02Speaker 1: lost Wyatt and then you obviously lost Parsons, who's massive,
- 33:05Speaker 1: and the trickle down effect from there is it can't
- 33:08Speaker 1: be overstated. So they've been bad. They've been like a
- 33:11Speaker 1: bottom ten defense since week eleven. The Bears are gonna
- 33:14Speaker 1: success running the ball. They do almost against anybody, But
- 33:17Speaker 1: I think the Packers can limit the explosive plays here.
- 33:19Speaker 1: I think Love can do his thing against it. I mean,
- 33:22Speaker 1: this Bears defense is bad. I mean, if you remove turnovers,
- 33:26Speaker 1: they're thirtieth in EPA per play, they're twenty six and
- 33:30Speaker 1: early down dropback success or without turnovers. Like they can't
- 33:33Speaker 1: stop anything. They can't get pressure against, out run against,
- 33:35Speaker 1: out the pass. So and this Packer. While the Bears
- 33:38Speaker 1: are pretty lucky in turnovers in close games, the Packers
- 33:41Speaker 1: were pretty unlucky. Like they went zero to three in
- 33:44Speaker 1: games they didn't punt. The rest of the NFL went eight. No,
- 33:47Speaker 1: it only happened eleven times. So yeah, and here's another
- 33:51Speaker 1: stat that it's gonna come up in a couple of games.
- 33:54Speaker 1: Caleb has been better this year, still has his warts,
- 33:59Speaker 1: and I think John and we'll slowly keep him, keep
- 34:02Speaker 1: getting him better. But this is his first playoff start
- 34:06Speaker 1: since two thousand and three. Quarterbacks making their first plaoff
- 34:08Speaker 1: start against the quarterback who has playoff experience twenty and
- 34:12Speaker 1: thirty nine straight up, twenty and forty twenty thirty nine
- 34:16Speaker 1: and one, excuse me, twenty and forty straight up twenty
- 34:19Speaker 1: thirty nine and one against the spread. Very very bad
- 34:22Speaker 1: also applies to May versus Herbert, so love. You just
- 34:27Speaker 1: never know this first playoff game, even at home, there's nerves,
- 34:31Speaker 1: there's Jitters and historically hasn't gone well, especially when you're
- 34:36Speaker 1: facing a quarterback who already has that playoff experience under
- 34:39Speaker 1: his belt. So I did play the Packers when they
- 34:42Speaker 1: were a dog.
- 34:43Speaker 2: I think the crappy part for Bears fans if you
- 34:46Speaker 2: lose this game, if they would have drawn the forty
- 34:48Speaker 2: nine Ers or they would have drawn the Rams and
- 34:50Speaker 2: you lose in the first round, I think people been like,
- 34:53Speaker 2: dig it a couple of weeks and be like that
- 34:54Speaker 2: was an awesome season. I think losing to the Packers
- 34:58Speaker 2: would take it a little bit. Especially coming into Chicago,
- 35:01Speaker 2: that would suck. There's just a lot of there's a
- 35:04Speaker 2: sneaky lot on the line before. I think the way
- 35:06Speaker 2: we look at the Bears moving forward for la Floor,
- 35:10Speaker 2: I mean, that's another kind of elephant in the room.
- 35:12Speaker 2: No one's really talking about. Ed Policy said this offseason like, yeah,
- 35:16Speaker 2: we got to see now it's the NFL not college.
- 35:18Speaker 2: He technically come back on a one year deal. Shane
- 35:21Speaker 2: Stikeen and Ballard are doing it, but Green Bay doesn't
- 35:24Speaker 2: really operate like that. So it's it's gonna be interesting.
- 35:28Speaker 1: It would be a sour ending for the Bears, and
- 35:30Speaker 1: then especially because then you're like, we lost the Packers,
- 35:32Speaker 1: we didn't win a playoff game, he lost it at home,
- 35:35Speaker 1: and now we have a first place schedule next year.
- 35:39Speaker 2: Yeah, that's too because they had the last play schedule
- 35:42Speaker 2: this year. Yeah, and they still want to And for
- 35:45Speaker 2: the division, I didn't really for some reason, I thought
- 35:47Speaker 2: three and three. But Sunday if I was, if we
- 36:04Speaker 2: treated the NFL like we did college football, I think
- 36:06Speaker 2: there would be people voting Jacksonville's number one team in
- 36:09Speaker 2: the country. Like they are red hot. You watch them,
- 36:13Speaker 2: they look fantastic. I mean, the team speed, the physicality, obviously,
- 36:17Speaker 2: how good their quarterback looks. But defensively, I mean, and
- 36:20Speaker 2: I get it was the Titans, but there was a
- 36:21Speaker 2: moment in that game when the linebacker had the pick
- 36:24Speaker 2: and they were just vibing. You're like, God, this feels
- 36:26Speaker 2: like a college team right now. That is just rolling.
- 36:30Speaker 2: That being said, I'm taking Josh Allen. I don't feel
- 36:35Speaker 2: great about this at all. And if Josh, if the
- 36:37Speaker 2: Bills lose this game, which it wouldn't shock me, if
- 36:39Speaker 2: we look up and the scores like thirty five to twenty,
- 36:42Speaker 2: and I'll bet on Jacksonville from then on, foward. I
- 36:44Speaker 2: think they could win the Super Bowl. But if not now,
- 36:48Speaker 2: then when there's no Lamar, there's obviously no Mahomes. It's
- 36:52Speaker 2: never been this wide open for them. They have clearly
- 36:55Speaker 2: the last couple of years. It's like Baltimore Kansas City,
- 36:58Speaker 2: who were better teams than them. Kansas City we could debate,
- 37:02Speaker 2: but definitely that year, you know, they beat Baltimore and
- 37:05Speaker 2: then they lost to Kansas City. I thought Baltimore was
- 37:07Speaker 2: better last year in that second round game. And I
- 37:11Speaker 2: just think that that thing could get really weird, really fast.
- 37:16Speaker 2: I just wonder if you just get Josh Allen on
- 37:19Speaker 2: a mission, and maybe I'm being an idiot even thinking
- 37:22Speaker 2: like this, and Jacksonville rolls them. But speaking about the Bear,
- 37:26Speaker 2: speaking about you know, some of these places, Kansas City forever,
- 37:29Speaker 2: what Seattle's gonna have? You know what you guys had
- 37:31Speaker 2: in Baltimore when you get home games, Jacksonville doesn't really
- 37:34Speaker 2: have a home field advantage. So I don't think that really,
- 37:38Speaker 2: like phases Buffalo, this isn't going on the road to
- 37:40Speaker 2: Kansas City, which they are very very comfortable. I mean,
- 37:44Speaker 2: they've been in these environments now for how many years,
- 37:47Speaker 2: playing in these the biggest playoff games of the year, right,
- 37:50Speaker 2: They've lost a lot of them. But I'm taking the
- 37:53Speaker 2: Bills here. I do not feel great about this, and
- 37:56Speaker 2: I think if he gets by this game, I think
- 37:59Speaker 2: they could go on a legit role and they could
- 38:01Speaker 2: win the Super Bowl.
- 38:02Speaker 1: Yeah, it sucks. This is the first This is the
- 38:06Speaker 1: matchup in the first round, because the Jags are as
- 38:09Speaker 1: hot as any team, and then the Bills with Alan
- 38:11Speaker 1: I don't worry about my homes and Lamar like this.
- 38:17Speaker 1: This looks like their year and one of these teams
- 38:18Speaker 1: is going to be sitting at home Sunday night. So yeah,
- 38:23Speaker 1: I think the winner of this game is very live
- 38:25Speaker 1: to win the AFC.
- 38:26Speaker 2: Are you surprised that the Bills, Like, I mean, the
- 38:29Speaker 2: Bills are favored in this game. Is it just based
- 38:31Speaker 2: on history? Because if it was reversed and Jacksonville's going
- 38:35Speaker 2: to Buffalo, but you know, the Bills were playing like Jacksonville,
- 38:40Speaker 2: and I think Jacksonville just had the season the Bills had.
- 38:44Speaker 2: I feel like the Bills would be favored by like
- 38:45Speaker 2: seven points if it was reverse.
- 38:47Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, I mean the Jags. Look, the Jags come in,
- 38:53Speaker 1: They've won eight in a row. Now you could. Now
- 38:55Speaker 1: the schedule hasn't been great.
- 38:58Speaker 2: Some Titans colts in there.
- 39:00Speaker 1: Of Titans, a lot of colts, and they are the Jets.
- 39:02Speaker 1: But you have to there is merit to it when
- 39:06Speaker 1: you blow out the Chargers, blow them out of the water.
- 39:09Speaker 1: And then you went to Denver and you beat them
- 39:11Speaker 1: handily in Denver? And so what has happened to that?
- 39:15Speaker 1: And by the way, eight games, so they won eight
- 39:17Speaker 1: in a row. The Bills have lost eight straight road
- 39:19Speaker 1: playoff games. It's been a very long time. McDermott is
- 39:23Speaker 1: zero and five on the road now, most of them
- 39:25Speaker 1: one and four against the spread. Most of them have
- 39:27Speaker 1: come against Kansas City, one against Jacksonville way back I
- 39:30Speaker 1: think in like twenty seventeen. And the Jags have they
- 39:33Speaker 1: have been very good at home this year. There's seven
- 39:35Speaker 1: and one against the spread. That's the best cover mark
- 39:38Speaker 1: in the league, covered by fourteen points per game, and
- 39:40Speaker 1: they're six and two against the spread in the first half,
- 39:42Speaker 1: covered by over seven points per game. The Bills in
- 39:45Speaker 1: the first half on the road against the spread three
- 39:47Speaker 1: and five. Why do I bring that up? I played
- 39:50Speaker 1: the Jags first half, so first half money nine. But
- 39:56Speaker 1: maybe just let me first touch on the Jags improvement.
- 39:58Speaker 1: So what has happened, Well, since they went and got
- 40:01Speaker 1: Jacobe myersho's been a revelation for them. I mean their
- 40:04Speaker 1: their top four drop back success rate and drop back EPA,
- 40:09Speaker 1: so Lawrence has really benefited from that. But there's other
- 40:12Speaker 1: things that happened. BTJ got healthier. Cole Strange, their star
- 40:16Speaker 1: tight end, came back from injury. Also just a natural
- 40:19Speaker 1: improvement of the Liam Cohen offense as they started to
- 40:21Speaker 1: get a handle of it in his first year there,
- 40:23Speaker 1: and then they moved Cole van Lannon, they inserted him
- 40:26Speaker 1: at starting tackle, kicked Walker a little inside in Van
- 40:28Speaker 1: Land and they just signed him an extension. Has been
- 40:29Speaker 1: a revelation at tackle. Little has really struggled. There looks
- 40:32Speaker 1: better suited for the guard. So like a tight end,
- 40:35Speaker 1: you know, offensive line changes, you add Myers, you know,
- 40:39Speaker 1: you get healthier pass catchers. Like, there's reasons why this
- 40:42Speaker 1: offense is starting to hum and it's not like this
- 40:45Speaker 1: Bill's defense is great. Additionally, the Jaguars defense, Monteric Brown
- 40:49Speaker 1: has been a revelation at corner. After Jordan Lewis went down,
- 40:53Speaker 1: Jerry and Lewis kicked back into the slot. They They
- 40:56Speaker 1: are also getting healthier, and they've been dominant against the
- 40:58Speaker 1: run all year, top five rush success rate. There's Antonio
- 41:03Speaker 1: Johnson at safety's playing really well out of nowhere, So
- 41:06Speaker 1: there's there's real thing. Their's special teams are incredible. They
- 41:09Speaker 1: have a kicker who's an alien. He can make them
- 41:11Speaker 1: from seventy seventy yards and sixty.
- 41:14Speaker 2: Eight the other day.
- 41:15Speaker 1: Yeah, seven sixties. And I love Liam Cohen and if
- 41:20Speaker 1: you look Trevor Lawn and Trevor Lawrence, a lot of
- 41:23Speaker 1: those improvements since all those things I mentioned have come
- 41:26Speaker 1: against zone defense. Right over the first nine weeks of
- 41:30Speaker 1: the year, he was a nineteenth and success rate against
- 41:33Speaker 1: zone since week ten he's third. Why is that important?
- 41:38Speaker 1: Of the Bills play a ton of zone So why
- 41:40Speaker 1: am I playing the Jags first half? Well? Number one,
- 41:43Speaker 1: The Jags in the first half of games have been incredible.
- 41:45Speaker 1: A lot of that is the Liam Cohen script, and
- 41:48Speaker 1: Trevor Lawrence in particular has benefited from that. In the
- 41:51Speaker 1: first half. Lawrence thirteenth in EPA plus completion percentage over
- 41:55Speaker 1: expectation for the full season fourteenth adjusted EPA per play,
- 41:58Speaker 1: if even better than that since week ten that the
- 42:00Speaker 1: full season. In the second half, Lawrence thirty second in
- 42:05Speaker 1: A EPA plus completion percent of joe of expectation and
- 42:08Speaker 1: twenty first and success rate. His numbers fall off. That's
- 42:10Speaker 1: a lot of the script wearing off right and a
- 42:13Speaker 1: lot of what Liam Cohen does early on in games.
- 42:15Speaker 1: How about Josh Allen first, hast He's twenty fifth in
- 42:19Speaker 1: EPA plus completion was un joe of expectation twenty first
- 42:23Speaker 1: and adjusted EPA per play twenty fourth and success rate
- 42:26Speaker 1: second half, second, second, first, fourth quarter first first first.
- 42:33Speaker 1: The Bills have not started well many times a year,
- 42:36Speaker 1: and why will they come out? And they want to
- 42:38Speaker 1: run the ball. That's by design, that's what they want
- 42:40Speaker 1: to do, and they want to wear teams down. But
- 42:43Speaker 1: you still have Josh Allen, but they their script isn't great.
- 42:48Speaker 1: They just want to run the ball that's going to
- 42:50Speaker 1: go into the teeth of the Jags defense. So JAG's
- 42:52Speaker 1: at home with his script. I think they get a lead.
- 42:55Speaker 1: Where are the Jags still vulnerable? I do still think
- 42:57Speaker 1: it's their secondary. So Allen from behind in the second half,
- 43:01Speaker 1: I'm not betting against that against this Jags defense. So
- 43:05Speaker 1: once like Alan has to be unleashed. I think it
- 43:08Speaker 1: could be a flood coming for this Buffalo offense. But
- 43:12Speaker 1: I think that there's some distinct advantages in that Cohen
- 43:14Speaker 1: script early on that Jacksonville can take advantage of. So
- 43:18Speaker 1: I did play them first half moneyline against Buffalo. I've
- 43:21Speaker 1: just seen it too many times. And also keep in
- 43:23Speaker 1: mind Buffalo's kicking situation. Prayther got hurt. Prady got hurt
- 43:27Speaker 1: last week. We'll see if he's healthy enough or they
- 43:30Speaker 1: have to work out a kicker's big kicking advantage for Jacksonville.
- 43:35Speaker 1: But I did play Jags first half. That's kind of
- 43:37Speaker 1: how I see this, where like I think Cone's gonna
- 43:40Speaker 1: have some amazing screens drawn up and they're gonna have
- 43:43Speaker 1: success early on. But Josh Allen once he has to once,
- 43:47Speaker 1: they just have to unleash him against the you know,
- 43:49Speaker 1: a zone heavy defense. Uh, it could be trouble. So
- 43:54Speaker 1: that's how I think it probably plays out. I think
- 43:55Speaker 1: like Jags get out to a lead and then they're
- 43:59Speaker 1: gonna have to hold on and it's probably Allen that
- 44:03Speaker 1: leads the Bills back to victory. And I agree with
- 44:08Speaker 1: you if they win this, If they win that game.
- 44:11Speaker 1: I think they probably go to the Super Bowl.
- 44:13Speaker 2: Okay, another team that was Super Bowl aspirations because they're
- 44:18Speaker 2: the defending champs. The Eagles minus four and a half
- 44:21Speaker 2: at home according to Hardrock Bet. The forty nine ers
- 44:24Speaker 2: injury list got way uglier last week. They lost both
- 44:28Speaker 2: linebackers who won. You know, Tatum Bethune was already banged up.
- 44:33Speaker 2: He's Fred Warner's replacement. He's out out for the year, right, yeah, done.
- 44:37Speaker 2: And if this was October, he'd be in Troy. He'd
- 44:40Speaker 2: probably be a season d winners got injured. He's in
- 44:43Speaker 2: major trouble. Ricky Piersoll, by all accounts, reinjured his PCL
- 44:48Speaker 2: or whatever. I think he is major up in the air.
- 44:51Speaker 2: And we saw how important he was when they got
- 44:53Speaker 2: rolling in those games against the Bears and the Colts
- 44:56Speaker 2: for their offense, and you felt his absence, you know,
- 44:59Speaker 2: Trent I I would guess that he's gonna tough it out.
- 45:01Speaker 2: But I mean he's got a legitimate hamstring injury, not
- 45:04Speaker 2: even counting all the other injuries that they have. I
- 45:07Speaker 2: just don't think you can have that many injuries on
- 45:09Speaker 2: defense when your defense was already you know, on the
- 45:11Speaker 2: front seven was in shambles and have a chance, and
- 45:15Speaker 2: the Eagles would be crazy to not basically run at
- 45:18Speaker 2: every play, And if they do, I don't know. They've
- 45:21Speaker 2: been waiting all year. Unleash Jalen to move around a
- 45:24Speaker 2: little bit. That could also be a huge advantage. So
- 45:27Speaker 2: like the forty nine ers have guys. Eric Kendricks is
- 45:29Speaker 2: going to start. Eric Ndricks was unemployed. I mean, but
- 45:33Speaker 2: that shows you where they're at. So, I mean their
- 45:35Speaker 2: best players are up in suites with casts and Nie
- 45:38Speaker 2: leeves on. I just don't know how they play defense
- 45:42Speaker 2: because their margin for era on offense, which is now
- 45:44Speaker 2: banged up, like it's a lot different in there with
- 45:47Speaker 2: pearsall with a healthy Kittle and Juwan than when he's missing.
- 45:52Speaker 2: It's crazy how you know dependent they are on them
- 45:55Speaker 2: and Philly rests everybody. They're getting Lane Johnson back, who
- 45:58Speaker 2: I mean, this is not a big challenge for him
- 46:00Speaker 2: against the guys the Niners are rolling out. I mean,
- 46:02Speaker 2: Huff's not bad, but I just don't think. I think
- 46:05Speaker 2: the forty nine ers just had a gas. They're like
- 46:07Speaker 2: a car that's been on empty for a while. That
- 46:09Speaker 2: that Bears game they were able to win because the
- 46:11Speaker 2: Bears defense is atrocious. But you saw last week inst Seattle,
- 46:15Speaker 2: they just they made Kenneth Walker and Sharbonay look like
- 46:18Speaker 2: the best running back duo in American history. It wasn't.
- 46:23Speaker 2: I mean that it was a joke that that third
- 46:26Speaker 2: and what was a seventeen when I was a backbreaker
- 46:29Speaker 2: John Lynch wanted to jump out of a third.
- 46:32Speaker 1: Seventeen sweep that that that goes for a first time,
- 46:34Speaker 1: that should only happen in like the Mac on a
- 46:36Speaker 1: Tuesday night.
- 46:37Speaker 2: And honestly kind of easily. It's not like you had
- 46:39Speaker 2: to break three taps. I mean, I just think so
- 46:43Speaker 2: Saquon Barkley, the running ability. The one advantage the forty
- 46:47Speaker 2: nine ers have is that Philly, that place can just
- 46:50Speaker 2: get weird. It doesn't feel like the fans really love
- 46:53Speaker 2: this team. They've been a tough watch. They've gone into
- 46:56Speaker 2: these huge spells. If they do have trouble scoring against
- 46:59Speaker 2: the forty nine ers, then I think is fair just
- 47:01Speaker 2: I'm out on the Eagles. I'm just completely out.
- 47:04Speaker 1: Yeah, I want to.
- 47:05Speaker 2: I like, I like Philly in this game, and I
- 47:07Speaker 2: think the forty nine ers it's impressive what they've done
- 47:09Speaker 2: with their injuries. The reason Kyle makes a lot of
- 47:11Speaker 2: money because a lot of these coaches did losing all
- 47:14Speaker 2: over the league would lose in this situation with all
- 47:17Speaker 2: these injuries, and he got to twelve wins and you
- 47:19Speaker 2: can tell me the schedule that they still won. I
- 47:21Speaker 2: mean that Bears game is a game that most coaches
- 47:23Speaker 2: in the league can't pull off.
- 47:24Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, Now, Shannon did an incredible job. I wanted
- 47:27Speaker 1: to fade the Eagles. I'm totally out on the offense,
- 47:31Speaker 1: but I just can't hear in this particular matchup with
- 47:36Speaker 1: all the injuries. I mean Luke Giffert too, the other
- 47:38Speaker 1: linebacker for the fort Niners, you know, on the quad
- 47:39Speaker 1: injury Like they could have their top four linebackers all out,
- 47:43Speaker 1: including Warner. It's bleak. Now, I will say the Eagles
- 47:49Speaker 1: offense legitimately just beats itself against It doesn't matter who
- 47:53Speaker 1: they play, will beat itself for like a whole half
- 47:56Speaker 1: every week. Ah So, I mean, go look at the
- 48:00Speaker 1: Dallas game. Dallas is an atrocious defense. They didn't score
- 48:03Speaker 1: in the second half in that game. There's a number
- 48:05Speaker 1: of examples of like they just can't do it, and
- 48:08Speaker 1: like the what they do have an advantage with Sola
- 48:11Speaker 1: versus Patula, Like that's a huge advantage. So what is
- 48:14Speaker 1: Salo going to do here? I assume, like because the
- 48:17Speaker 1: forty nine defense since all these injuries has been really bad,
- 48:19Speaker 1: especially Warner and Bosa. But then you just add all
- 48:21Speaker 1: more interests and makes it worse. The one thing they've
- 48:24Speaker 1: done is they limit exposed to place both on the
- 48:26Speaker 1: ground and through the air, and they hold up well
- 48:28Speaker 1: on the red zone. Like that's got to be their
- 48:30Speaker 1: goal here, just limited exposed to plays, make the Eagles
- 48:33Speaker 1: drive the field, get stops in the red zone. Now,
- 48:35Speaker 1: the Eagles are number one in the league in red
- 48:37Speaker 1: zone touchdown rate seventy percent. I don't buy that. That's
- 48:41Speaker 1: a very highs A lot of variants in that stat
- 48:43Speaker 1: from season to season, and like last year they'd have
- 48:45Speaker 1: way better offense they were fifty five percent. So I
- 48:47Speaker 1: could see some potential, like there's some looming regression coming
- 48:50Speaker 1: with the Eagles, Like they could just end up setting
- 48:51Speaker 1: link for a bunch of field goals here. So I
- 48:54Speaker 1: ended up playing the under here outdoor under there's going
- 48:56Speaker 1: to be impactful wins. It's hard for me to see
- 48:59Speaker 1: that forty nine offense having much success. I don't think
- 49:01Speaker 1: Piercell's going to be hundred percent. I'm not even sure
- 49:03Speaker 1: Williams will go and this and this Eagles defense will
- 49:06Speaker 1: be rested. Fangio historically has gotten the better of Shanahan.
- 49:10Speaker 1: I think they've met five times head to head, whether
- 49:12Speaker 1: Channon's a coordinator head coach. Shannan has you have to
- 49:14Speaker 1: clear fifteen points, has averaged about ten and a half
- 49:17Speaker 1: points per game. So yeah, and like the Eagles are
- 49:20Speaker 1: number one against tight ends, they're number one against short passes.
- 49:25Speaker 1: Like the one weak area of this Eagles defense is
- 49:28Speaker 1: their their second corner on the outside, which is will
- 49:30Speaker 1: be beautiful, be very nice to have a healthy Piersoll
- 49:33Speaker 1: to take advantage of that. But that that that's not
- 49:35Speaker 1: even the case here with the pcl injury. Not even
- 49:37Speaker 1: sure he suits up.
- 49:39Speaker 2: So their their linebacker play is just so good against
- 49:42Speaker 2: the Niners run game, which you know you throw Jordan
- 49:45Speaker 2: Davis some of the bodies they have. I mean, Fangio's
- 49:47Speaker 2: turned Hunt into a pretty high end player. See he's
- 49:50Speaker 2: got he's got three picks and he had three more
- 49:53Speaker 2: picks in the Jets.
- 49:54Speaker 1: Yeah, I insane. So like it's hard for me to
- 49:58Speaker 1: see that the Ford and you look at this nine
- 50:00Speaker 1: ers off as you mentioned pearsall they exploded down the stretch,
- 50:03Speaker 1: but when they had to play, when they had to
- 50:05Speaker 1: step up, you know, against the Seahawks, when even all year,
- 50:10Speaker 1: when they stepped up in class against defenses like they
- 50:12Speaker 1: average only seventeen points against the seven top ten defenses
- 50:15Speaker 1: that they played. I think that's like their ceiling here.
- 50:18Speaker 2: They're they're all lying. Got worked against Seattle. I mean
- 50:21Speaker 2: that's destroy the Jalen Carter and Hunt and the linebackers blitzing,
- 50:27Speaker 2: got to be licking their jobs to go up against
- 50:29Speaker 2: these guys. I mean pleasant if he's got to play.
- 50:31Speaker 2: I mean it was a tough matchup with Jesus. I
- 50:33Speaker 2: mean there's you talk about a fall from Trent to
- 50:36Speaker 2: that guy. I mean pretty big. Yeah, mckibbitts. The Niners
- 50:40Speaker 2: love them, but I mean, I let's not let's not
- 50:43Speaker 2: pretend he's Lane Johnson or anything.
- 50:45Speaker 1: Yeah. So so I played the under like I think
- 50:48Speaker 1: the forty nine ers ceiling here without flukes and Eagles
- 50:51Speaker 1: don't turn the ball over seventeen points? Can the forty
- 50:54Speaker 1: hours hold the Eagles under twenty eight? Like keep them
- 50:58Speaker 1: the twenty eight or below. I think so, like the
- 51:01Speaker 1: Eagles only got the thirty plus four times this year
- 51:05Speaker 1: against the Raiders. They got to thirty one against the Giants,
- 51:09Speaker 1: which is their only explosion. Really, they got to thirty eight.
- 51:13Speaker 1: They got to thirty one against the Bucks, and then
- 51:18Speaker 1: they got to thirty three against the Rams when because
- 51:20Speaker 1: of a fuel goal block with no time left. So
- 51:22Speaker 1: really only three times all year, and they played some
- 51:25Speaker 1: bad defenses. And there's a there's a real scenario here
- 51:29Speaker 1: where the Eagles are up two touchdowns and there's no
- 51:31Speaker 1: one better that just bleeds out the entire second half
- 51:35Speaker 1: with like a twelve minute drive. They're like a service academy.
- 51:37Speaker 1: I mean, this is a team that won two games
- 51:39Speaker 1: as you were not completing a pass in the second
- 51:41Speaker 1: half the NFL record, So I played the under I
- 51:43Speaker 1: would lean Philly with you. It's I think the injuries
- 51:46Speaker 1: to sanfran are too much to overcome on the road here,
- 51:50Speaker 1: and the defense just isn't good enough. It's too hard
- 51:52Speaker 1: to win the NFL and you can't get pressure.
- 51:55Speaker 2: Look this morning, Hard Rock Bad had the Chargers getting
- 51:58Speaker 2: four points on the road in New England. I Mike
- 52:02Speaker 2: I'm gonna keep this pretty simple here. Harbaugh Herbert on
- 52:06Speaker 2: the road against a team like the one thing you
- 52:08Speaker 2: would say about New England that they're not exactly rolling
- 52:11Speaker 2: out Jalen Carter and Hunt coming after you from a passer.
- 52:14Speaker 1: Standpoint seventh adjusted pressure, right, so you.
- 52:17Speaker 2: Can't take advantage of their offensive line. I have seed Harbaugh,
- 52:21Speaker 2: I like, like Shanahan in a situation where he you know,
- 52:24Speaker 2: Shanahan doesn't have enough right now, but Harbaugh has enough
- 52:27Speaker 2: to like win a playoff game. I like the Chargers
- 52:30Speaker 2: in the spot plus four.
- 52:31Speaker 1: Now.
- 52:31Speaker 2: I don't know if they win the game, but this
- 52:33Speaker 2: is the spot. Now. There's a pressure on Herbert right
- 52:36Speaker 2: plays that playoff game last year, all the haters came
- 52:39Speaker 2: out of the woodworks because it was ugly. I mean,
- 52:41Speaker 2: it's probably the worst game he's ever played in his
- 52:42Speaker 2: entire life, going back to like peewee football. So I
- 52:45Speaker 2: think he's got a lot to play for. I just
- 52:48Speaker 2: think the the Harbaugh mentality, and this goes back Fanjio
- 52:52Speaker 2: was talking about this when I ask about some of
- 52:54Speaker 2: his teams back in the day with Jim. They are built,
- 52:57Speaker 2: you know, from a physicality standpoint, from a toughness stand point,
- 53:00Speaker 2: how just their mentality on defense. Now they got to
- 53:04Speaker 2: run the ball. You know, I've been a little you know,
- 53:07Speaker 2: I'm not the biggest Hampton guy. But I like the
- 53:12Speaker 2: Chargers in this spot now New England. There is no disputing.
- 53:15Speaker 2: You know, from a coaching standpoint, they're gonna be ready.
- 53:18Speaker 2: I mean, Josh is how many games has Josh been
- 53:21Speaker 2: an offensive coordinator in in January games? My guess would
- 53:23Speaker 2: be like fifty. I don't know. It's got to be
- 53:26Speaker 2: close to an NFL record for being the pure offensive coordinator,
- 53:29Speaker 2: not offensive coordinator in you know, the head coach like
- 53:31Speaker 2: Mike Shanahan or and Andy Reid. I'm just talking the
- 53:33Speaker 2: only I'm only an offensive coordinator. He has to own
- 53:36Speaker 2: the record. Uh And obviously I Vrabel's had a ton
- 53:39Speaker 2: of success in playoff games. Some of those right came
- 53:41Speaker 2: on the road, though he did lose the home game
- 53:43Speaker 2: against Cincinnati. In fairness to him, Tannehill played like me
- 53:47Speaker 2: or you in that game. He's throwing a bunch of picks.
- 53:49Speaker 2: It was atrocious. But I like the Chargers in the spot.
- 53:53Speaker 2: I know their offensive line. I'm not like picking them
- 53:55Speaker 2: to go on some crazy run here, but I think
- 53:58Speaker 2: they are an extremely live dog going on on the
- 54:00Speaker 2: road against New England. First time you brought a first
- 54:02Speaker 2: time playoff games you have a rookie quarter or not.
- 54:05Speaker 2: He's not a rookie quarterback, but.
- 54:06Speaker 1: First started against the quarterback vis Clovv experience. Ye, historically
- 54:09Speaker 1: that has not gone well, even at home.
- 54:10Speaker 2: And he and listen, I know he's been awesome. I'm
- 54:13Speaker 2: not some Drake Meyhader at all, but a little like
- 54:16Speaker 2: Kleb Like at USC, they didn't only play that many
- 54:18Speaker 2: important games. He definitely didn't in North Carolina. So it's
- 54:21Speaker 2: not like, well he started Obama for two years or
- 54:23Speaker 2: LSU or Ohio State like this is his first year
- 54:26Speaker 2: kind of in the bright lights. Let's be real.
- 54:29Speaker 1: This is also the hardest defense by far he'll faced
- 54:32Speaker 1: all year. I mean the Chargers are second and epall
- 54:34Speaker 1: out over the past ten week ten weeks, I mean
- 54:38Speaker 1: the Pats played nobody all year. I mean you want
- 54:42Speaker 1: to and then their defense, given their defense, these are
- 54:46Speaker 1: they only played one team with a winning record all year.
- 54:49Speaker 1: That's it. One team Bills, the Bills, and they spill
- 54:52Speaker 1: with them. And then their schedule, which is the easiest
- 54:54Speaker 1: in twenty five years was even easier than that because
- 54:59Speaker 1: they faced the Ravens with Tyler Huntley, they faced the
- 55:02Speaker 1: Saints of Spencer Rattler, they faced the Browns or the
- 55:07Speaker 1: Bengals with Joe Flacco. They faced the Browns with Dylan Gabriel,
- 55:11Speaker 1: the Jets with Justin Fields, the Dolphins with Quinn Ewers,
- 55:16Speaker 1: the Jets with Brady Cook. I mean eleven of their
- 55:20Speaker 1: fourteen wins basically came over rookies or backup quarterbacks or
- 55:22Speaker 1: quarterbacks that were benched. It unprecedented easy schedules. They're hard
- 55:28Speaker 1: to price. But like, who's the third the third best
- 55:32Speaker 1: quarterback they faced or the second because Lamar only played
- 55:35Speaker 1: like a quarter, like a quarter and a half, so
- 55:38Speaker 1: they played Josh Allen. Who's the second best quarterback they faced?
- 55:40Speaker 1: I guess I would say Baker. And that was in
- 55:44Speaker 1: the second half the year where he was either hurt
- 55:46Speaker 1: or I don't know what happened. He was one of
- 55:48Speaker 1: the worst quarterbacks in the league over the second half
- 55:49Speaker 1: the year and they were missing like a bunch of
- 55:51Speaker 1: weapons out And then the next how about the third
- 55:54Speaker 1: best quarterback they faced this year? I don'tly Bryce Young.
- 55:59Speaker 1: I don't even know, uh Flacco, Maybe I have no idea.
- 56:05Speaker 1: So this will be a big test for their defense,
- 56:08Speaker 1: which is dealt with injuries late in the season. And
- 56:12Speaker 1: Drake May and Drake May has been incredible is deep
- 56:15Speaker 1: ball is incredible, But this is the Chargers defense under
- 56:18Speaker 1: Mintter that takes away the deep ball as well as
- 56:20Speaker 1: any defense in the league. And May he did get
- 56:22Speaker 1: away with a number of throws this year. I mean
- 56:24Speaker 1: he finished thirty one touchdowns, eight interceptions, but twenty six
- 56:27Speaker 1: big time throws, seventeen turn of worthy plays. You go
- 56:29Speaker 1: back to that Ravens game, should have thrown a couple picks.
- 56:31Speaker 1: So I wouldn't be shocked if Minter tricks him in
- 56:34Speaker 1: to a couple interceptions. The Pat's also pretty lucky when
- 56:38Speaker 1: it came to fumbles this year. They also went eighteen
- 56:40Speaker 1: of twenty five on fourth downs and their opponents went
- 56:43Speaker 1: just ten of thirty.
- 56:45Speaker 2: And so like they got a little Banders thing to him, Yes.
- 56:49Speaker 1: Very much so. And here's where so Minter is going
- 56:53Speaker 1: to run a ton of zone prevent exposive plays, make
- 56:55Speaker 1: the Pats score in the red zone. And the Chargers
- 56:58Speaker 1: two straight seasons have been elite in the red zone.
- 57:01Speaker 1: Chargers offense isn't great in the red zone, but this
- 57:03Speaker 1: Pat's defense was bottom three in red zone defense and
- 57:05Speaker 1: they played I just told you the schedule they played,
- 57:08Speaker 1: so yeah, I agree. And Herbert, by the way, twelve
- 57:11Speaker 1: to two and one against the spread is an underdog
- 57:13Speaker 1: of more than a field goal. To wrap it all
- 57:15Speaker 1: back to what you said initially, I wrote this game
- 57:17Speaker 1: up for Action Network, Narrah, this is my sentence. I said,
- 57:20Speaker 1: I'll happily take an elite quarterback in Staff with the
- 57:22Speaker 1: clearly superior defense catching over a field goal in the
- 57:25Speaker 1: playoffs against a quarterback making his first career postseason start. Yeah,
- 57:29Speaker 1: give me the Chargers here.
- 57:44Speaker 2: Okay, well we will get the nightcap on Monday with
- 57:48Speaker 2: a team that took a windy missfield goal from not
- 57:52Speaker 2: even being in this spot. Now they do get dk
- 57:54Speaker 2: metcalf back Cam Hayward looked like he was twenty eight
- 57:58Speaker 2: years old in that game.
- 57:58Speaker 1: Who was presentible?
- 58:01Speaker 2: You know? TJ was a step slow and that last
- 58:04Speaker 2: play to likely and then he blasted Lamar. But felt
- 58:07Speaker 2: like you felt the pressure from other guys. Now, maybe
- 58:10Speaker 2: if you go back and look at the all twenty
- 58:11Speaker 2: two they were keeping an eye on him more. I mean,
- 58:14Speaker 2: Jalen Ramsey blew that that one play clearly, he bit
- 58:17Speaker 2: on it and he was in no man's land and
- 58:19Speaker 2: Jay Flowers just walked to the end zone. I mean,
- 58:22Speaker 2: this defense, I just hard to trust the Steelers in
- 58:27Speaker 2: this spot now, underdog at home. They haven't lost a
- 58:30Speaker 2: Monday night football game since like nineteen ninety one? Am
- 58:33Speaker 2: I getting that stat right?
- 58:33Speaker 1: Yeah? I think three years.
- 58:35Speaker 2: Yeah, so it's been a while now.
- 58:38Speaker 1: They lost him Monday afternoon game in the COVID year.
- 58:42Speaker 2: Don't count. Don't count.
- 58:43Speaker 1: I know it doesn't count, but I'm saying I was
- 58:44Speaker 1: looking back at it. It was weird they moved a game
- 58:46Speaker 1: to like five o'clock that year was there was like
- 58:49Speaker 1: Tuesday games, Wednesday games. But yeah, thirty three straight.
- 58:53Speaker 2: Do the Texan strengths take advantage of what Pittsburgh stinks at,
- 58:58Speaker 2: Like he'll get rid of the ball fast, he's not looking,
- 59:00Speaker 2: and he might throw a lot of pass attempts, but
- 59:01Speaker 2: it's not like he's running around back. There is there
- 59:05Speaker 2: a little upset potential here. Now I'm gonna I'm rooting
- 59:09Speaker 2: for the Texans here. I'm gonna take the Texans minus three.
- 59:12Speaker 2: But I could see where this thing is a little
- 59:13Speaker 2: close at halftime. You know, we talked about the voodoo,
- 59:15Speaker 2: the magic in Pittsburgh. Hell, we just saw it bounce
- 59:21Speaker 2: off like three guys bounced off guy's chess. I mean, hell,
- 59:25Speaker 2: even the touchdown for Rogers, I mean the dB slips
- 59:28Speaker 2: all down. Now, in fairness, that was happening to Baltimore too,
- 59:32Speaker 2: then blowing coverages, but that whole thing just got wacky
- 59:35Speaker 2: for both guys. You know, if they lose this game,
- 59:39Speaker 2: is Tomlin next? I mean, are we does Hardball get
- 59:41Speaker 2: fired on a Tuesday? Does Tomlin get fired or slash
- 59:44Speaker 2: traded or go to TV next week? Who knows? I
- 59:49Speaker 2: you know, I could see Pittsburgh putting up a little
- 59:51Speaker 2: fight here. But I do think if the Texans offense
- 59:53Speaker 2: just shows up, I don't know, it's gonna be tough match,
- 59:57Speaker 2: especially because the dB play, I mean, you Lassiter and
- 1:00:00Speaker 2: Stingley you know, can neutralize. I mean those guys can play.
- 1:00:03Speaker 1: So Last has to play. I believe they just held
- 1:00:05Speaker 1: him out for precautionary reasons last week. So he's been
- 1:00:08Speaker 1: dealing with an injury. I'm assuming he'll let go, like
- 1:00:10Speaker 1: not d MP or limited practice in full on Friday
- 1:00:13Speaker 1: and play. Uh the drop off to treymont Smith, I
- 1:00:16Speaker 1: think is it's a crater if he's in there. Yeah,
- 1:00:22Speaker 1: it's hard for me. Like Petrie will be huge in
- 1:00:24Speaker 1: this game, defending a lot of what the Steelers want
- 1:00:27Speaker 1: to do. They might miss Darnel Washington here. You gotta
- 1:00:31Speaker 1: remember the Steeers offense wasn't doing anything against the Ravens,
- 1:00:34Speaker 1: who can't get any pressure until Kyle Hamilton might be
- 1:00:38Speaker 1: like the most valuable defensive play in the league he
- 1:00:40Speaker 1: went out. They average like three point five yards before
- 1:00:42Speaker 1: Hamilton went out and then six point eight after. I
- 1:00:45Speaker 1: mean he's basically like an all playing like an All
- 1:00:47Speaker 1: Pro linebacker. He does everything for them.
- 1:00:51Speaker 2: When you put Petrie kind of in that world, I
- 1:00:53Speaker 2: mean he's a pretty unique place.
- 1:00:54Speaker 1: Yeah, he can because he can defend the run.
- 1:00:57Speaker 2: He'st I love that.
- 1:00:59Speaker 1: Yeah, I love him. They really missed him last year
- 1:01:02Speaker 1: when he went down. But yeah, I mean, like this
- 1:01:05Speaker 1: is historically Dome teams, these indoor teams that go on
- 1:01:10Speaker 1: the road in the playoffs when it's under thirty degrees.
- 1:01:13Speaker 1: I think they're like one in fourteen their last fifteen games.
- 1:01:17Speaker 1: They don't do well, and now you go.
- 1:01:18Speaker 2: To Texans had to account for a lot of those right,
- 1:01:21Speaker 2: for a lot of those JJ watt shob teams. They
- 1:01:24Speaker 2: would win at home and then the second round would
- 1:01:26Speaker 2: go on the road to New England, go on the
- 1:01:28Speaker 2: road to whoever and lose.
- 1:01:29Speaker 1: Yep. So yeah, how did the Texans handle that? The
- 1:01:34Speaker 1: Steels are gonna blitz a ton I assume, and Stroud's
- 1:01:36Speaker 1: been very poor against the blitz Ken, their offensive line
- 1:01:39Speaker 1: hold up, Rodgers been bad against pressure. I assume it's
- 1:01:42Speaker 1: gonna be a lot of quick passes, a lot of game. Well,
- 1:01:45Speaker 1: the totals thirty nine and a half, so like this,
- 1:01:47Speaker 1: this spread was three and a half. I think it
- 1:01:49Speaker 1: made sense. I wish I took some three and a
- 1:01:51Speaker 1: half to clear out the three and hals in which
- 1:01:53Speaker 1: would be a low scoring game. Probably comes down to
- 1:01:56Speaker 1: like a fluky player too, could see the Steelers winning.
- 1:02:00Speaker 2: How about the one Roger scramble where he kind of
- 1:02:03Speaker 2: found himself a no man's land. I was stopped. It's like,
- 1:02:06Speaker 2: what was that?
- 1:02:07Speaker 1: That was hilarious? So if I had to, I take
- 1:02:10Speaker 1: the points, but would have preferred three and a half.
- 1:02:12Speaker 1: I'm still gotta dig into that some more on on
- 1:02:16Speaker 1: Monday night. By the way, if I had a quick question,
- 1:02:18Speaker 1: I always I don't think i've askeding before. If you
- 1:02:20Speaker 1: had to pick, if you were if I you were kidnapped,
- 1:02:23Speaker 1: and you were held in a TV less prison and
- 1:02:27Speaker 1: they allowed they allowed you to leave for one weekend
- 1:02:30Speaker 1: of the NFL playoffs, would you choose wild Card weekend,
- 1:02:36Speaker 1: Divisional round or conference championships.
- 1:02:42Speaker 2: I'd probably choose the second round because you get more games.
- 1:02:46Speaker 2: So I get Saturday and Sunday, so I get a
- 1:02:48Speaker 2: couple of days of life. It feels like by then
- 1:02:51Speaker 2: you got the best teams, kind of get rid of
- 1:02:54Speaker 2: the riff raft.
- 1:02:55Speaker 1: This we don't have like Panthers Rams game.
- 1:02:57Speaker 2: Yeah, so I'd probably choose Now you get a little
- 1:03:00Speaker 2: more inventory, you know. Do I get three days away
- 1:03:03Speaker 2: from my captures, you know, like a Saturday, Sunday and Monday.
- 1:03:06Speaker 2: So I mean, but I would probably choose the second round.
- 1:03:09Speaker 1: Yeah, I think in that scenario.
- 1:03:14Speaker 2: So let's let's get out of here on college football
- 1:03:17Speaker 2: like we did with the Super Bowl, you know, I mean,
- 1:03:19Speaker 2: now we're at fourteen. I think it's fair to say
- 1:03:21Speaker 2: all four teams could win the national championship. Ole Miss
- 1:03:24Speaker 2: pretty heavy underdog relative to the other two. Indiana heavy
- 1:03:28Speaker 2: favorite right now, like plus one twenty to win the Natty.
- 1:03:31Speaker 2: I do think Miami. I mean, I will get into this.
- 1:03:34Speaker 2: I like Miami a lot in this game, and I
- 1:03:38Speaker 2: just think they're, you know, to get them three to
- 1:03:40Speaker 2: one to win the Natty where the Natty is gonna
- 1:03:43Speaker 2: be at home if they which is a pretty pretty
- 1:03:48Speaker 2: cool for them. I mean it's you know, Indiana's had
- 1:03:51Speaker 2: the turnout they've had in these games rightfully, so at
- 1:03:53Speaker 2: Ohio State or and the Rose Bowl. It just feels
- 1:03:56Speaker 2: like these Indiana home games that would be the first
- 1:03:59Speaker 2: time where it's like this. That Miami thing would be
- 1:04:01Speaker 2: pretty special. Uh, Mario the offensive line. I also think
- 1:04:06Speaker 2: Oregon and I was telling Coward this. You know a
- 1:04:09Speaker 2: lot of Dan Lannings things like his whole mantra and
- 1:04:12Speaker 2: his pregame speeches. They're favored in a lot of these games,
- 1:04:16Speaker 2: so he's having to like manipulate them a little bit.
- 1:04:19Speaker 2: And I think he's learned this from Saban and Kirby.
- 1:04:22Speaker 2: Now he's like a legitimate underdog, Like I don't think
- 1:04:24Speaker 2: you're gonna meet many people that aren't, Like, yeah, I
- 1:04:26Speaker 2: think Indiana's gonna Most people pick in Indiana or win
- 1:04:28Speaker 2: the national championship, and they are legitimately an underdog on paper.
- 1:04:32Speaker 2: I would just imagine most people are not picking Oregon.
- 1:04:35Speaker 2: Did he You know the thing with Saban and Kirby,
- 1:04:37Speaker 2: they didn't get to be the dog a lot of times,
- 1:04:39Speaker 2: but when they did, they could go into fucking rare form.
- 1:04:42Speaker 1: And against a team that beat you on your home field.
- 1:04:45Speaker 2: Yeah, so they've played. I saw their linebacker being interviewed yesterday.
- 1:04:48Speaker 2: He's like, you know, coming off that Penn State game,
- 1:04:50Speaker 2: we might have had a little bit of just overlooked them.
- 1:04:53Speaker 1: Uh. I wouldn't either, because then you say nothing to
- 1:05:00Speaker 1: say you have all that advantage in house. I wouldn't
- 1:05:04Speaker 1: have said anything.
- 1:05:05Speaker 2: Yeah, I would just this game, you know. To me, Miami,
- 1:05:09Speaker 2: he's just a tough violence raw raw. We're gonna kick
- 1:05:12Speaker 2: ass ole miss. I don't even know Pete's thing, but
- 1:05:15Speaker 2: those two guys, Sig and Dan are classic, like use
- 1:05:18Speaker 2: every different angle, create a story chip on her shoulder.
- 1:05:22Speaker 2: I do think Oregon it's just everyone's overlooking him, and
- 1:05:26Speaker 2: obviously Indiana is. I mean the two game stretch he's
- 1:05:29Speaker 2: had the greatest two game stretch in the history of
- 1:05:30Speaker 2: the program. The beat Ohio State to win the conference
- 1:05:34Speaker 2: and then they it felt like they ended Alabama, who
- 1:05:37Speaker 2: feel like they're kind of in champbs right now struggling
- 1:05:38Speaker 2: to get transfer portal guys. But that's a whole nother Uh.
- 1:05:41Speaker 2: Ty Simpson just left, But I think they want to
- 1:05:43Speaker 2: go with the five Stars, So it's not even Ty
- 1:05:45Speaker 2: Simpson wasn't coming back right to be their starting quarterback,
- 1:05:47Speaker 2: so it's not even that weird it depending where he went.
- 1:05:50Speaker 2: I just I think Miami and Oregon would be interesting.
- 1:05:54Speaker 2: I'm not counting out Oregon in this spot. So just
- 1:05:56Speaker 2: to win an astal can all four teams win the
- 1:05:58Speaker 2: national championship.
- 1:06:00Speaker 1: Yeah, I think so they like there's it's hard to
- 1:06:04Speaker 1: it's hard to really price and quantify the of like
- 1:06:10Speaker 1: what's old miss right now, like they have more, got
- 1:06:13Speaker 1: more guys in the staff aren't gonna be on with them,
- 1:06:15Speaker 1: Like what what does that do and how much of
- 1:06:18Speaker 1: an impact We We've never seen anything like this, so
- 1:06:19Speaker 1: there's no precedent. Like it's pretty crazy. So does does
- 1:06:25Speaker 1: that hurt over time? I don't know. But this Trinidad Chambliss,
- 1:06:29Speaker 1: I mean that's second half against Georgia, it looked like
- 1:06:32Speaker 1: prim Lamar looks like it was insane the way that
- 1:06:36Speaker 1: he's playing like, and that's gonna that's critical. He's like unsackable, unpressurable,
- 1:06:42Speaker 1: and that's what you need to do against Miami because
- 1:06:43Speaker 1: Baine and messidor just wrecking him, saying as a statue,
- 1:06:47Speaker 1: so he he just creates plays and buys time. That's
- 1:06:50Speaker 1: gonna be huge against Miami. Mario versus Joe Judge clock management,
- 1:06:55Speaker 1: So whoever's up with a minute ago is probably gonna lose.
- 1:06:58Speaker 2: But the thing is they ran the ball. Obviously, Lacey
- 1:07:00Speaker 2: is a really good player. I was reading that. You know,
- 1:07:03Speaker 2: Miami is a top five run defense, but really like
- 1:07:06Speaker 2: the way they're playing right now, there's probably no one
- 1:07:08Speaker 2: better like in the country. You know, when you factor
- 1:07:11Speaker 2: in how they've really brought it the last couple of weeks,
- 1:07:13Speaker 2: if they could run the ball and got some big
- 1:07:16Speaker 2: spots against Georgia, who clearly, and you've been hammering, this
- 1:07:19Speaker 2: is not built like Miami right now. Their defensive line
- 1:07:22Speaker 2: doesn't look like that. This is a different level. And
- 1:07:24Speaker 2: so part of Trinidad, who like you said, was awesome
- 1:07:27Speaker 2: that game was theater. They didn't get any more entertaining
- 1:07:30Speaker 2: than that. Is he gonna be able to do that?
- 1:07:32Speaker 2: Like you're like, well you just did it against Georgia.
- 1:07:34Speaker 2: Well that ain't the Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith Georgia. That's
- 1:07:37Speaker 2: a little bit different. And I think that's why Kirby
- 1:07:39Speaker 2: wasn't that mad after. It's not like he thought he
- 1:07:41Speaker 2: just lost with his best team. He knows pretty fought well.
- 1:07:44Speaker 2: This Miami thing like that front that defense in general.
- 1:07:48Speaker 2: I do think if they can't run the ball, and
- 1:07:51Speaker 2: I do think it's gonna be difficult. I kind of
- 1:07:53Speaker 2: like I did a little alt.
- 1:07:55Speaker 1: Lines, Mom's gonna be able to run the ball here?
- 1:07:57Speaker 2: I don't think. I think it's possible. Miami was this
- 1:07:59Speaker 2: game like ten plus points and you can get plus
- 1:08:02Speaker 2: odds if you get like minus six and a half,
- 1:08:04Speaker 2: because right now it's at three and a half. But
- 1:08:06Speaker 2: you gotta lay some juice on Miami if you go
- 1:08:08Speaker 2: up to a round of touchdown. Like I kind of
- 1:08:11Speaker 2: I think Miami has a chance to just kind of
- 1:08:12Speaker 2: physically overwhelm these guys because I don't think old Missus
- 1:08:15Speaker 2: really felt that because the SEC physically wasn't an overwhelming conference,
- 1:08:19Speaker 2: which is weird to say this season.
- 1:08:22Speaker 1: Yep, no, you're You're right, it's gonna come down the chandelists.
- 1:08:25Speaker 1: Kenny Ken, what kind of plays can he make? An
- 1:08:28Speaker 1: extending plays against that Miami front. I also kind of
- 1:08:32Speaker 1: like the over here. I know Miami's played under games,
- 1:08:33Speaker 1: but Ole miss is gonna pump up the tempo, try
- 1:08:36Speaker 1: to wear down that defensive line. We saw them get
- 1:08:39Speaker 1: kind of worn down against Ohio State when Ohio State
- 1:08:41Speaker 1: went to the two minutes dral. Other than that State,
- 1:08:42Speaker 1: it's a snail. But I think they're gonna they're gonna
- 1:08:45Speaker 1: use tempo air and then you're gonna see this Miami
- 1:08:47Speaker 1: offense I think need to do more and they should
- 1:08:50Speaker 1: be able to. They're gonna be able to run the
- 1:08:51Speaker 1: ball on this Ole Misty. They're probably gonna hit more
- 1:08:53Speaker 1: explosive plays. This is also on a track in Glendale
- 1:08:57Speaker 1: that the field conditions are very slippery and the games
- 1:08:59Speaker 1: will always go over here. So I kind of like
- 1:09:02Speaker 1: you over I think it's gonna be an exciting game,
- 1:09:05Speaker 1: almost special teams don't sleep on them. By the way,
- 1:09:07Speaker 1: that Carnero, that kicker, he's incredible. But yeah, Miami would,
- 1:09:12Speaker 1: and it would be an amazing story if they got the
- 1:09:14Speaker 1: nationalital in Miami after all the controversy of them getting in,
- 1:09:17Speaker 1: and then they could play Oregon, who's like bouncing all
- 1:09:19Speaker 1: around the country. They're playing in Atlanta, and they could
- 1:09:24Speaker 1: end up having to go to Miami for the national
- 1:09:27Speaker 1: title to play Miami. I don't think that Oregon doesn't
- 1:09:30Speaker 1: have a chance, but I do think Indiana is going
- 1:09:34Speaker 1: to win. But I need three to bet it. I
- 1:09:36Speaker 1: need three, like a flat three. I make it like four,
- 1:09:39Speaker 1: a little over four. Well, how does Indiana keep doing this?
- 1:09:43Speaker 1: I mean one of the if you go back to
- 1:09:44Speaker 1: that original Oregon game and I watched it again the
- 1:09:48Speaker 1: other day, it was they just beat him up the
- 1:09:51Speaker 1: line of scrimmage. And one of the main differences between
- 1:09:53Speaker 1: these rosters and is Oregon is very young, Like they
- 1:09:56Speaker 1: have more talent, more blue chips, but they're very young.
- 1:09:58Speaker 1: This year, this is supposed to be kind of a
- 1:10:00Speaker 1: rebuilding year for Oregon.
- 1:10:01Speaker 2: Twenty four touchdowns by true freshman like an NCAA recorded
- 1:10:04Speaker 2: or led the country insane.
- 1:10:06Speaker 1: Yeah, they lost a ton of draft picks, rebuilt their
- 1:10:09Speaker 1: their their lines, and Indiana is like a team of
- 1:10:12Speaker 1: all like twenty four year olds. So and that showed
- 1:10:16Speaker 1: in the first meeting. They pressured more on twenty of
- 1:10:20Speaker 1: his forty dropbacks, sacked him I think five or six times.
- 1:10:23Speaker 1: He was under fire the entire game. Indiana was able
- 1:10:25Speaker 1: to run the ball, Oregon wasn't. And then Indiana was
- 1:10:28Speaker 1: able to get pressure. Oregon wasn't consistently. So that was
- 1:10:32Speaker 1: the difference. And then Indiana just wins games with execution.
- 1:10:37Speaker 1: They are the most this team, and part of that
- 1:10:39Speaker 1: is the veteran nature and the coaching staff and Signetty's incredible.
- 1:10:42Speaker 1: But like, here's where the game could be decided. Third
- 1:10:44Speaker 1: down defense Indiana twenty nine percent. That's fourth in the country.
- 1:10:48Speaker 1: Oregon's fortieth. Third down offense Indiana fifty five percent, best
- 1:10:52Speaker 1: in the country by far. That fifty five percent is illegally.
- 1:10:55Speaker 1: You've probably seen that five times over the past ten years.
- 1:10:57Speaker 1: Oregon forty three percent. Still go to twenty eight. How
- 1:11:00Speaker 1: about giveaways, they don't turn it over point six per game,
- 1:11:02Speaker 1: that's fourth Oregon very good. Point six, but twenty eight
- 1:11:05Speaker 1: penalties per game Indiana three point four, that's third in
- 1:11:09Speaker 1: the country. Oregon five point two thirty third, So Oregon's
- 1:11:12Speaker 1: very good in all those little things, but Indiana's elite.
- 1:11:14Speaker 1: Like they don't turn over, they don't they don't commit penalties,
- 1:11:17Speaker 1: they don't let you convert on third downs, and they
- 1:11:20Speaker 1: convert on third downs because and their average su distance
- 1:11:23Speaker 1: to go on third downs the lowest in the nation.
- 1:11:25Speaker 1: Because they're able to run the ball, and they should
- 1:11:26Speaker 1: be able to run the ball a bit on Oregon here,
- 1:11:29Speaker 1: but I'm not laying three and a half. I think
- 1:11:31Speaker 1: it'll be a competitive game. The biggest X factor in
- 1:11:35Speaker 1: this game, and especially as an underdog, there's something about
- 1:11:39Speaker 1: coaches named Dan degenerate, Dan Lanning. You know, he's going
- 1:11:42Speaker 1: to go for it a bunch of the fourth, which
- 1:11:44Speaker 1: he should as an underdog. And there's I mean, he
- 1:11:46Speaker 1: played he went forward seven times I think against Texas Tech, I.
- 1:11:50Speaker 2: Think less early. You know their defense was good. Agreed,
- 1:11:54Speaker 2: you could win this game Dan, like nine to three.
- 1:11:57Speaker 2: What are you doing once you go off two possessions
- 1:11:58Speaker 2: in that game?
- 1:11:59Speaker 1: It was over? Yeah, I disagree with them. That's his
- 1:12:01Speaker 1: nature though, and like that's kind of his identity, similar
- 1:12:05Speaker 1: to Dan Campbell, so you know, but I think that's
- 1:12:07Speaker 1: that works in his favor here. When you're an underdog. Yeah,
- 1:12:11Speaker 1: so that that's gonna There's gonna be a couple of
- 1:12:12Speaker 1: swing plays there on fourth downs that could end up
- 1:12:16Speaker 1: deciding this game. Uh. I like Indiana the win, but
- 1:12:20Speaker 1: I wouldn't be completely shocked if Oregon one. I think
- 1:12:22Speaker 1: both both are gonna be good games.
- 1:12:23Speaker 2: Indiana wins. They'd obviously be favored against Old.
- 1:12:26Speaker 1: Miss seven seven seven and a half of roll Miss.
- 1:12:29Speaker 2: What's the line against Miami?
- 1:12:31Speaker 1: Uh? I would say probably, I'm gonna say three and
- 1:12:40Speaker 1: a half.
- 1:12:41Speaker 2: The thing would be is like Miami and Indiana kind
- 1:12:44Speaker 2: of similar. Like like you said, Indiana dominates the line
- 1:12:47Speaker 2: of scrimmage. And I didn't realize the kid that broke
- 1:12:50Speaker 2: his leg high five in the fan was a transfer
- 1:12:54Speaker 2: portal guy from the.
- 1:12:55Speaker 1: Mac from Kennas State.
- 1:12:57Speaker 2: They had turned him into like led the league or
- 1:12:59Speaker 2: led the cun in TfL. So I was like, they
- 1:13:02Speaker 2: are finding guys. It'd be one thing. It's like when
- 1:13:05Speaker 2: you know you get quinch On Jenkins from Ole Miss,
- 1:13:08Speaker 2: he's been the SEC freshman the year and finding transfer
- 1:13:10Speaker 2: portals like that. It's another thing to find Chambliss from
- 1:13:13Speaker 2: Farris State or a dude from Kent State Like that's
- 1:13:16Speaker 2: high level transfer portal personnel work. That's badass. I respect
- 1:13:21Speaker 2: Indiana because they're transferred, even Mendoza and I get his
- 1:13:24Speaker 2: brothers on the team. Like it's not like he was
- 1:13:26Speaker 2: coming from USC, He's coming from Cow. Well did they
- 1:13:29Speaker 2: even have it they go to Bowl game the previous year.
- 1:13:31Speaker 2: I don't think they did.
- 1:13:31Speaker 1: No. Now that Signetti is like famous for this and
- 1:13:36Speaker 1: like grind state and finds these chants or forty nine ers.
- 1:13:40Speaker 1: The year before, they they plucked CJ. West from Kent
- 1:13:43Speaker 1: State who turned into a stud and got drafted.
- 1:13:47Speaker 2: Oh he's a portal guy too.
- 1:13:48Speaker 1: God Yeah, from Kent State, and yeah this there they
- 1:13:52Speaker 1: might they didn't miss him last week. But like they're
- 1:13:55Speaker 1: blitz they're blitz packages and pressure packages are amazing. They
- 1:13:58Speaker 1: had or I'm curious see the Oregon adjustments because they
- 1:14:02Speaker 1: they could not block Indiana. Their their third down blitz
- 1:14:05Speaker 1: packages in Indiana some of the best in the country. Now,
- 1:14:07Speaker 1: obviously Oregan's gonna have a counter to that, but you
- 1:14:09Speaker 1: would also expect Indiana to not do some of the
- 1:14:12Speaker 1: same things. So I can't wait for that chess match.
- 1:14:14Speaker 1: But yeah, Signetti finds just incredible gems in the portal. Actually,
- 1:14:21Speaker 1: I think I think Indiana, Like if Indiana dominates again,
- 1:14:23Speaker 1: they might be depends how dominant these teams are, but
- 1:14:25Speaker 1: it might be like four and a half over Miami,
- 1:14:27Speaker 1: seven and a half overall miss But obviously that could change.
- 1:14:30Speaker 1: I think that's like what it would be today. But
- 1:14:31Speaker 1: if one of these teams looks really good, then that'll
- 1:14:34Speaker 1: change injuries as well.
- 1:14:38Speaker 2: Would it be the craziest thing we've ever seen? You know?
- 1:14:40Speaker 2: I don't you know, I know when Jim Valvano jumped
- 1:14:42Speaker 2: up and down in NC State, like back in the eighties.
- 1:14:45Speaker 2: But I mean I was born eighty four. It doesn't
- 1:14:48Speaker 2: feel like we've had now. It's a little different. I mean,
- 1:14:52Speaker 2: he's spending a lot of money, right, I mean he
- 1:14:54Speaker 2: is buying these guys the transfer portal. You wouldn't even
- 1:14:58Speaker 2: had access to the Kent State guys, right because you
- 1:15:00Speaker 2: couldn't transfer to have to sit out. So it's it's
- 1:15:02Speaker 2: not an apples to apples comparison. It's more realistic, like
- 1:15:06Speaker 2: what he's doing now, you're more capable to do that
- 1:15:09Speaker 2: with the rules. But still, even with the rules, no
- 1:15:13Speaker 2: one in a million years, Even last year, I thought like, ah,
- 1:15:17Speaker 2: great year. It's like they'll come back to earth a
- 1:15:19Speaker 2: little bit and they are clearly dramatically better, just in
- 1:15:23Speaker 2: terms of like unfazed by the bright lights. I mean
- 1:15:25Speaker 2: that game against Bama was like Jesus, I get Bama's
- 1:15:28Speaker 2: not great, but that was that looked like a SABAN
- 1:15:31Speaker 2: team would do to a team that didn't belong to
- 1:15:33Speaker 2: be there. That's what happened to them last year against
- 1:15:36Speaker 2: Notre Dame. It's like you don't belong to be here.
- 1:15:38Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean an album quit that game. I mean
- 1:15:40Speaker 1: back to say, held to Alabama in Ohio State with
- 1:15:42Speaker 1: all those receivers, the thirteen total combined points.
- 1:15:46Speaker 2: I can't quarterbacks really good and you got the number one.
- 1:15:48Speaker 2: That's the other thing. They have the number one pick,
- 1:15:50Speaker 2: a quarterback on a team that clearly is really good
- 1:15:52Speaker 2: with a bunch of I text an NFL buddy, I'm like,
- 1:15:54Speaker 2: how many high end guys like they don't have too
- 1:15:56Speaker 2: many high end guys like they're they're left tackle. That's
- 1:15:59Speaker 2: the you know, he's I think a lot of people
- 1:16:02Speaker 2: view him as a future guard, but he's an NFL player.
- 1:16:04Speaker 2: But it's not. No one's viewing him like Trey Williams
- 1:16:06Speaker 2: or something right. So they got a lot of guys
- 1:16:09Speaker 2: like that, you know, sarat really good college player. He's
- 1:16:11Speaker 2: not gonna go He's not gonna be like a top
- 1:16:14Speaker 2: ten pick. He's not my league neighbors.
- 1:16:16Speaker 1: Yea, Camarons. A lot of these guys will get drafted,
- 1:16:19Speaker 1: but they're not like top ten picks.
- 1:16:20Speaker 2: Yeah, they're just full of guys that are gonna go
- 1:16:22Speaker 2: from like pick one hundred to two hundred. Beside the quarterback.
- 1:16:25Speaker 2: But if you're well coached, you're tough. They're just I mean,
- 1:16:28Speaker 2: they're beating teams with technically more talent on the roster
- 1:16:32Speaker 2: than them from a recruiting standpoint.
- 1:16:33Speaker 1: Yeah, they're just out executing everyone and they're they're grown men.
- 1:16:38Speaker 1: It's pretty Yeah, I can't think of a parallel. Like
- 1:16:42Speaker 1: like six said, it would be a hell of a
- 1:16:43Speaker 1: movie for a coaching job like this and then for
- 1:16:46Speaker 1: this team to come out of nowhere and now be
- 1:16:47Speaker 1: the favorite doing the national title Indiana Indiana football. But
- 1:16:51Speaker 1: this Oregon winning would be the least surprising thing as
- 1:16:54Speaker 1: far as like how you look at college football, even
- 1:16:57Speaker 1: though they're an underdog in a semi because the other
- 1:16:59Speaker 1: options are Miammy wins it, who like no one thought
- 1:17:02Speaker 1: they were going to make it the collegeble play. They
- 1:17:03Speaker 1: didn't even make the ACC Championship. Oh Miss wins it
- 1:17:05Speaker 1: after Lane Kiffin left with a skeleton staff. Or Indiana
- 1:17:10Speaker 1: football wins the national title like crazy, like Oregon would
- 1:17:14Speaker 1: be the most normal outcome.
- 1:17:16Speaker 2: If you didn't know much about college football, though, and
- 1:17:18Speaker 2: you just watched Miami the last couple of weeks, you'd
- 1:17:20Speaker 2: be like, they feel like an NFL team.
- 1:17:22Speaker 1: Yes, the one thing that could hold him back that
- 1:17:25Speaker 1: I need to see and he'll need to be He'll
- 1:17:27Speaker 1: need to do more in this game because they're not
- 1:17:28Speaker 1: going to hold all Miss to nothing. Is Carson back
- 1:17:32Speaker 1: in a big game, Like, I mean he's only thrown
- 1:17:34Speaker 1: for like two hundred and twenty or't he doesn't had to.
- 1:17:36Speaker 1: They just run it and their defense dominated. But Beck
- 1:17:40Speaker 1: is going to have to not make mistakes in critical games,
- 1:17:43Speaker 1: which he has.
- 1:17:44Speaker 2: Been their second best wide receiver beside the true freshman Daniels.
- 1:17:48Speaker 1: But I mean he's not great, Like their passing attack
- 1:17:51Speaker 1: isn't great. They just want to they want to run it,
- 1:17:55Speaker 1: play defense, and they want to get the ball to
- 1:17:58Speaker 1: Tony as much in many creative ways as possible, but
- 1:18:02Speaker 1: Beck is gonna there's gonna be a moment where Beck's
- 1:18:04Speaker 1: gonna have to make some throws. That's that's my biggest
- 1:18:06Speaker 1: question for Miami. Uh but I think we got we
- 1:18:09Speaker 1: got two good semifinalss with tons of storylines like the
- 1:18:12Speaker 1: old Miss is just it's a crazy Can you imaginef
- 1:18:15Speaker 1: Ole Miss went the national title without Lane and then
- 1:18:18Speaker 1: Lane never wins a national title again in his career?
- 1:18:21Speaker 1: Like that is.
- 1:18:24Speaker 2: I want to chance. I mean, Lane's no lock to
- 1:18:26Speaker 2: just be in the final four the next couple of hours,
- 1:18:28Speaker 2: right far from it. How about this, I'll get you
- 1:18:43Speaker 2: out here on this. Obviously, you know there's a fluid
- 1:18:45Speaker 2: story the Washington quarterback that he's probably headed to l
- 1:18:49Speaker 2: s U and they're gonna get sued. It is classic Lane.
- 1:18:53Speaker 2: I don't blame him for doing it. There are no rules. Uh,
- 1:18:56Speaker 2: but that is At first, I'm like, god, this is
- 1:18:58Speaker 2: a crazy story. You signed this four million dollar and
- 1:19:00Speaker 2: then of course it's yeah, he's gonna go to Lane.
- 1:19:03Speaker 2: I'm like, oh my god, yeah.
- 1:19:06Speaker 1: It's messy. I mean college basketball, that's a whole other
- 1:19:09Speaker 1: story with like NBA guys now playing on college teams.
- 1:19:13Speaker 2: Did you watch the Baylor kid?
- 1:19:15Speaker 1: Uh? Yeah, look he looked Okay, I mean it wasn't.
- 1:19:19Speaker 1: I don't think it's like gonna. He's not changing.
- 1:19:24Speaker 2: Brand.
- 1:19:27Speaker 1: But yeah, like how now with lawsuits like this is
- 1:19:30Speaker 1: just a new world. But what what what ends up?
- 1:19:34Speaker 1: Of course Lane is in the middle of it. What
- 1:19:37Speaker 1: ends up? And we have like Sam Levitt who was
- 1:19:40Speaker 1: now I think it's gonna he was supposed to come
- 1:19:44Speaker 1: potentially Kentucky, but I think he's now gonna go to
- 1:19:46Speaker 1: Alabama or where LSU because Simpson's going to be the NFL.
- 1:19:51Speaker 1: But what so what like now they're suing him, Like
- 1:19:54Speaker 1: say you sue for him to stay, But then what's
- 1:19:58Speaker 1: that situation? You wanted to go make more money and
- 1:20:02Speaker 1: then you have a quarterback who doesn't, who's hate is
- 1:20:06Speaker 1: mad at you, And how that's gonna to me?
- 1:20:10Speaker 2: What you have to do because where you're angry, it's
- 1:20:13Speaker 2: like even if you were gonna leave, if we would
- 1:20:15Speaker 2: have known we had some big time money to buy
- 1:20:17Speaker 2: someone sweet and we didn't get to play that game
- 1:20:21Speaker 2: because we just assumed, I don't know, a week ago
- 1:20:24Speaker 2: signed the contract. You got to be the people that
- 1:20:27Speaker 2: blow this up. And you sue it, and you make
- 1:20:30Speaker 2: it so ugly that you get to the point where
- 1:20:32Speaker 2: he doesn't get to play for L s U and
- 1:20:33Speaker 2: he screwed And like that to me is now the
- 1:20:37Speaker 2: mindset because like you said, what what are you gonna do?
- 1:20:40Speaker 2: Sue him? So he comes back like he's already kind
- 1:20:44Speaker 2: of moved on. You know, it's it's an ugly but
- 1:20:46Speaker 2: I think you sue, and I think a lot of
- 1:20:48Speaker 2: people are kind of gonna root for this to blow
- 1:20:51Speaker 2: this situation up, because if you were on well if
- 1:20:55Speaker 2: we sign a four million dollar contract with the Volume
- 1:20:57Speaker 2: or Action Network and then like a week later we're's like, yeah,
- 1:21:00Speaker 2: we're doing this other thing, and just like you get sued.
- 1:21:02Speaker 2: That's how the real world works. There's once you get
- 1:21:05Speaker 2: to a certain number in life with business, like people
- 1:21:08Speaker 2: come after you and you know in college like well
- 1:21:11Speaker 2: they're just kids, like those days feel a little over
- 1:21:14Speaker 2: and this feels is ruthless. Like this guy just signed
- 1:21:16Speaker 2: the contract a weekly he's like, I'm coming back and
- 1:21:19Speaker 2: then he just clearly laying they offered more. Who knows
- 1:21:22Speaker 2: whatever the odor.
- 1:21:23Speaker 1: I think it's two million more as the rumor.
- 1:21:26Speaker 2: So I I think that that that that can't that's
- 1:21:29Speaker 2: not the way that you know. It's one thing like
- 1:21:31Speaker 2: a guy commits in the NFL during that tampering period,
- 1:21:34Speaker 2: but he hasn't signed anything. And remember Emmanuel Sanders like
- 1:21:37Speaker 2: backed out. Yeah, but no one signs their contract and
- 1:21:40Speaker 2: then a week later like, oh I signed with the Chiefs,
- 1:21:42Speaker 2: but now I'm gonna go play for the Cowboy. That's
- 1:21:44Speaker 2: not the way it works, because that's the way the
- 1:21:46Speaker 2: real world works when you sign the contract. And I
- 1:21:49Speaker 2: think this is the first time where it's like I
- 1:21:51Speaker 2: could see this thing. This is where the ending kind
- 1:21:54Speaker 2: of comes from the contract standpoint, because this guy's back
- 1:21:59Speaker 2: have I think the times a little uncomfortable, like do
- 1:22:01Speaker 2: you signed the contract? And you signed the contract, do
- 1:22:03Speaker 2: you want thing? Well, he's only paying them one hundred grand.
- 1:22:05Speaker 2: This is four million dollars right.
- 1:22:07Speaker 1: Yeah, And as you said, it kept them out of
- 1:22:09Speaker 1: the quarterback game.
- 1:22:11Speaker 2: Is he that good?
- 1:22:13Speaker 1: He has potential? I mean, I mean you looked at
- 1:22:16Speaker 1: because I mean he can run, he can throw, but
- 1:22:17Speaker 1: like all the big games this year, shorter, Yeah, he's
- 1:22:21Speaker 1: he's his His size is is definitely the problem and
- 1:22:24Speaker 1: like in all the whenever he had a step up
- 1:22:26Speaker 1: against the better defenses. It wasn't pretty, but you might
- 1:22:30Speaker 1: be right that this might just be needed and a
- 1:22:34Speaker 1: necessary thing to fix, and they're they're eventually, it seems
- 1:22:40Speaker 1: like inevibly, there's just gonna have to be some kind
- 1:22:41Speaker 1: of scapegoat in a lawsuit and that ends up getting
- 1:22:45Speaker 1: screwed and and this might end up being like good
- 1:22:52Speaker 1: for the long term of the sport because it's just
- 1:22:55Speaker 1: like the Wild West right now, there's and there needs
- 1:22:58Speaker 1: to be oversight and or structure, and there's just no rules.
- 1:23:02Speaker 1: It's completely lawless, and the calendar needs to change. Look
- 1:23:06Speaker 1: at all these teams in the playoffs that had coaches
- 1:23:08Speaker 1: that were already took jobs elsewhere. You now have a
- 1:23:11Speaker 1: team in the college football semies without a head coach
- 1:23:14Speaker 1: who went to Arrival, and now some of their staff
- 1:23:16Speaker 1: is not staying on. I mean, it's a disaster.
- 1:23:21Speaker 2: You can't have a guy. I have no problem. Let's
- 1:23:24Speaker 2: say you go to the draft college or the NFL
- 1:23:26Speaker 2: and I get drafted, like you know, in the sixth round,
- 1:23:29Speaker 2: even in the college football, and it's like, I want
- 1:23:31Speaker 2: to go back to school. I never played in the NFL.
- 1:23:33Speaker 2: I would be like, I can kind of get that
- 1:23:34Speaker 2: screwed up the kid that was drafted thirty first if
- 1:23:38Speaker 2: he wanted to immediately come back, but you can't just
- 1:23:40Speaker 2: go pro for several years and then come back. Yeah,
- 1:23:43Speaker 2: he played wem Bin Yama in the summer league. There's
- 1:23:45Speaker 2: like the pictures of him guarding. It's like, no, that's
- 1:23:48Speaker 2: that's like. That's where I do agree with the coaches,
- 1:23:51Speaker 2: like what are we doing? How did they even know
- 1:23:53Speaker 2: to contact this human being?
- 1:23:55Speaker 1: It's insane. We're in the We're in the wild Western
- 1:23:59Speaker 1: College athletics. So yeah, it's gonna take some kind of
- 1:24:02Speaker 1: big moment to work lawsuit to fix it. So I
- 1:24:05Speaker 1: think you might be right.
- 1:24:06Speaker 2: Okay, stuck. You will enjoy the week and enjoy the
- 1:24:09Speaker 2: baby and enjoy life, and I will talk to you.
- 1:24:12Speaker 2: We'll figure out a time talk next week. Not quite
- 1:24:14Speaker 2: your own schedule. Who knows. We had a contraction. Last night.
- 1:24:17Speaker 2: I was like, oh my god, but a buckle up.
- 1:24:18Speaker 2: It's good to happen soon, you.
- 1:24:19Speaker 1: Know, Well good luck, but havn't sooner, brother, and I
- 1:24:23Speaker 1: will enjoy the football as well, maybe your last free weekend,
- 1:24:26Speaker 1: and I'll talk to you next week.
- 1:24:28Speaker 2: See you.
- 1:24:29Speaker 1: Cheers. The volume