Latest / The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast / The Buffet with Chad and Scooch, Episode 37 - NFL Bets!

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The Buffet with Chad and Scooch, Episode 37 - NFL Bets! · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

• 0:02
  Speaker 1: Coming to you from fabulous Las Vegas. The right side
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: is the winning side. The late move is the correct move.
• 0:10
  Speaker 1: Sports betting capital of the world. We all know when
• 0:14
  Speaker 1: a sharp like me weighs in the lines move, it's
• 0:17
  Speaker 1: a party for your ears. This is the buffet with
• 0:26
  Speaker 1: Chad and Scooch. I want to buy that guy at buffet.
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: Welcome back to the buffet with Dad and Scooch. I
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: am Chad Moman from the Action Network on the phone
• 0:39
  Speaker 1: with me from the Orleans, representing all the BOYD gaming books,
• 0:44
  Speaker 1: not just in Sata, Nevada. He is becoming closer and
• 0:48
  Speaker 1: closer to the bookmaker to the world. Mr Bob Scooci, Hey, Chad,
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: what's going on? Listen? We haven't been together for a
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: while because we've been taking various vacations, um and since
• 1:02
  Speaker 1: we last got together. Scooge it's almost like the world
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: has found sports betting in particular this week in particular.
• 1:12
  Speaker 1: So there's there's we're gonna be We're gonna do some
• 1:15
  Speaker 1: pretty serious Capital J questions right now. Capital J journalism
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: questions because uh, it is Wednesday afternoon, and uh, I'd
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: say over the past forty eight hours there have been
• 1:29
  Speaker 1: some incredible announcements about what's happening in the sports world
• 1:32
  Speaker 1: around sports betting. Number one is um. On Monday, I
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: believe the MGM and BOYD, your company, made an announcement
• 1:46
  Speaker 1: that they were merging forces for a variety of sports
• 1:51
  Speaker 1: book operations. Explain to me what's going on. Explained to
• 1:55
  Speaker 1: the world, what's happening, and how this brings you closer
• 1:57
  Speaker 1: to being bookmaker of the world. Yeah. Yeah, it's been
• 2:01
  Speaker 1: a whirlwind actually since ever since the repeal have passed.
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: But there's just so many things happening so so very quickly.
• 2:08
  Speaker 1: So so the deal with with MGM and BOYD, it's
• 2:13
  Speaker 1: really larger than sports betting. It's kind of online and
• 2:17
  Speaker 1: eye gaming, which is kind of interactive gaming. It's you know,
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: slot machines, blackjack on your mobile devices. There's a whole
• 2:25
  Speaker 1: it's a whole new direction uh that uh, you know,
• 2:29
  Speaker 1: each state is kind of passing regulations to allow for
• 2:32
  Speaker 1: more and more. So the two companies decided to join
• 2:36
  Speaker 1: forces to get into markets that each other weren't already in. So,
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: in other words, BOYD was in ten states around the
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: country and MGM was in some other states. So by merging,
• 2:51
  Speaker 1: it allowed MGM to get into some of the states
• 2:54
  Speaker 1: they weren't already in, such as like Kansas and Iowa.
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: It's a lot of the Midwestern states. And it allowed
• 3:00
  Speaker 1: boy to get into states that we were no longer in,
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: such as New Jersey. So with sports betting being a
• 3:08
  Speaker 1: part of that online gaming, it allows for uh sports
• 3:13
  Speaker 1: betting into some of those jurisdictions that we weren't already in.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: All Right, explain, as Denzel Washington likes to say in
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: his movies, explain this to me, like I'm five, I
• 3:26
  Speaker 1: don't really understand. I don't understand anything you just said.
• 3:29
  Speaker 1: All I heard is how I heard is MGM, BOYD slots,
• 3:34
  Speaker 1: eye gaming jurisdictions, New Jersey flyover states. Uh. I don't
• 3:41
  Speaker 1: know how this affects me as a sports fan or
• 3:44
  Speaker 1: a sports better, or how this affects me as a
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: fan of you and your world dominance. Yeah, you know what,
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: I don't understand a lot of it yet. It's still
• 3:52
  Speaker 1: it's still uh evolving. So but basically it's gonna mean
• 3:57
  Speaker 1: that a lot more people can make ats on their
• 4:01
  Speaker 1: phone in a lot of other states, if not right now,
• 4:05
  Speaker 1: in the next two years and two of the companies
• 4:09
  Speaker 1: that will be kind of leading that charge, or or
• 4:12
  Speaker 1: MGM and BOYD being in so many different jurisdictions, so
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: many different states. So it just means that, you know,
• 4:22
  Speaker 1: we can offer more sports betting in a lot of states,
• 4:25
  Speaker 1: both BOYD and MGM, and a lot of people that
• 4:28
  Speaker 1: are looking to bet using their either pecs or mobile
• 4:32
  Speaker 1: devices are going to be able to make wagers, including
• 4:36
  Speaker 1: sports wagers, but beyond sports wagers. Um. And we're just
• 4:40
  Speaker 1: kind of looking forward, looking to the future to expand
• 4:42
  Speaker 1: on this whole notion of sports betting. Alright, So so
• 4:46
  Speaker 1: I'm clear, if I go to an MGM book in
• 4:51
  Speaker 1: say New Jersey, and I want to bet on sports,
• 4:57
  Speaker 1: and I want to do it at the brick and
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: mortar casino like the Borgata, or I want to do
• 5:02
  Speaker 1: it on my phone, um while in the state of
• 5:04
  Speaker 1: New Jersey, that sports book is being operated by whom
• 5:09
  Speaker 1: we haven't determined that yet. That's too premature for I
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: mean that there's a chance that you'll have two different products,
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: an MGM product and AVOID product, or it could be one.
• 5:21
  Speaker 1: But I mean it's the it's uh hasn't been flushed
• 5:25
  Speaker 1: out yet. So the merger, the the what is this
• 5:28
  Speaker 1: like a joint venture? Yeah, JV. They called JVC j
• 5:33
  Speaker 1: V j V. Um it sounds like a varsity to me.
• 5:37
  Speaker 1: You don't jan any time when Avery Time Scooch is
• 5:42
  Speaker 1: involved in a deal, they don't call it a j V.
• 5:45
  Speaker 1: They just call it a v like that. Um I
• 5:50
  Speaker 1: uh So basically what happens is like, do you guys
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: then how does it work? Are you guys sharing the
• 5:56
  Speaker 1: profits on bets made through these devices no matter where
• 6:00
  Speaker 1: the bets are made, because now you're in more jurisdiction.
• 6:02
  Speaker 1: So it's like you take a little bit less where
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: you might have gotten everything, but you're getting a little
• 6:06
  Speaker 1: bit more where you're getting nothing. Well, I can't go
• 6:09
  Speaker 1: into the commercial agreement part of it because there's a
• 6:11
  Speaker 1: lot of other things involved, but but yeah, there's a
• 6:13
  Speaker 1: there's a sharing of of payments and money being put
• 6:18
  Speaker 1: into the joint venture. But it just allows more opportunity
• 6:22
  Speaker 1: for both companies. So without having to buy actual giant
• 6:27
  Speaker 1: casinos in every state in order to operate, these are
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: the ways that the big companies can get into sports
• 6:34
  Speaker 1: betting in each state. Because remember it's not federally approved,
• 6:39
  Speaker 1: it's just kind of federally not banned, so each state
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: draft their own regulations surrounding sports betting. So companies like
• 6:48
  Speaker 1: Hours trying to get into as many big markets as
• 6:51
  Speaker 1: we can. And we're already in a lot of big
• 6:53
  Speaker 1: markets with casinos, but now this allows us to get
• 6:56
  Speaker 1: into big markets without actually having the casino in that state.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: That makes sense, So totally makes sense. I love it
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: for you. Who's running the MGM sports book right now?
• 7:06
  Speaker 1: Is it j Rude? Yes? So can we get j
• 7:11
  Speaker 1: rudw on the podcast one day and have a showdown,
• 7:15
  Speaker 1: because what I would like, I would like it's settled
• 7:19
  Speaker 1: on the podcast. Who's going to be the sports book
• 7:24
  Speaker 1: maker to the world? Well, you guys, how are you
• 7:29
  Speaker 1: guys going to settle this? Scooch Uh. There's so many
• 7:33
  Speaker 1: things happening so quickly, and every day changes. It's like
• 7:36
  Speaker 1: it's like you're out there on the ocean and every
• 7:38
  Speaker 1: time the wind changes, you're going you're moving in another direction,
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: and and that's kind of what's happened now. MGM made
• 7:45
  Speaker 1: still another deal, separate than than Hours and separate from
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: the other one you wanted to talk about, But they
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: also made one with a company called g VC, and
• 7:55
  Speaker 1: I don't know if you saw that. But g VC
• 7:57
  Speaker 1: has a lot of brands like Party Poker and b
• 8:01
  Speaker 1: Win and there's a whole bookmaking entity with g VC
• 8:06
  Speaker 1: in Europe, so there may be some other players involved
• 8:10
  Speaker 1: on the MGM side. So what are you gonna do
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: to stake your claim. It sounds like it's going to
• 8:17
  Speaker 1: get political and you might need to start thinking about you.
• 8:23
  Speaker 1: I'm always thinking about me, Chad. You gotta start who
• 8:28
  Speaker 1: bookmaker of the world. That's the goal, right book Let's
• 8:33
  Speaker 1: we're gonna be it. Let's get it, right, bookmaker to
• 8:35
  Speaker 1: the world. Okay, bookmaker to the world. Yeah, let's use
• 8:39
  Speaker 1: the proper preposition. Okay, all right, Well listen, Scooch, I'm
• 8:44
  Speaker 1: gonna start making calls and if I gotta call like
• 8:47
  Speaker 1: Big Al, then I'm going to call him. There you go,
• 8:50
  Speaker 1: Big Tony, Tony. I can't have Big Tony shut you
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: out on this deal. The MGM has been making some
• 8:58
  Speaker 1: moves all week. So you mentioned the GBC DAL which
• 9:01
  Speaker 1: I think is too in the weeds a little two
• 9:03
  Speaker 1: inside baseball for uh this podcast. It's a massive deal
• 9:07
  Speaker 1: and a really important deal, um, and a really cool deal,
• 9:11
  Speaker 1: and congrats to everyone who did it. But the other
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: big deal is MGM and n B A. What's your
• 9:18
  Speaker 1: take on this? This is a very interesting deal. Um,
• 9:23
  Speaker 1: give me your thoughts as a bookmaker in Nevada. I'm
• 9:27
  Speaker 1: sure you have a lot of thoughts. I do. I'd
• 9:30
  Speaker 1: have to put on a couple of different hats. I mean,
• 9:32
  Speaker 1: on the face of it, just like very very high
• 9:35
  Speaker 1: level or just you know, from objective objective you it's
• 9:39
  Speaker 1: a pure marketing deal where the two companies can use
• 9:43
  Speaker 1: each other's brand. So the NBA can use the UH
• 9:47
  Speaker 1: and MGM brand in a lot of their marketing both
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: you know, in the digital space, on on their web
• 9:54
  Speaker 1: pages and whatever marketing they're doing on their mobile app,
• 9:58
  Speaker 1: and then vice versa. Mg HIM can use the NBA's
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: intellectual property and actually use the NBA logos without any
• 10:05
  Speaker 1: fear of you know, getting sued or anything like that.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: So so so, on the face of it, it's more
• 10:10
  Speaker 1: than anything, it's a marketing deal between the two companies
• 10:15
  Speaker 1: with regard to the actual bookmaking end of it. Now,
• 10:17
  Speaker 1: I'm going to put on my other hat. I don't
• 10:20
  Speaker 1: see a lot of teeth in this in terms of Okay,
• 10:23
  Speaker 1: the NBA is gonna really you know, they're going to
• 10:25
  Speaker 1: give you some great data now that you know, we
• 10:28
  Speaker 1: didn't have before, and that's going to really help the
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: bookmaking side. That part. I think I need to see
• 10:36
  Speaker 1: a little bit more, a little bit more evidence of that.
• 10:39
  Speaker 1: I mean, what what type of data are you now
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: going to get that you didn't get before? So I
• 10:46
  Speaker 1: think I agree with you. I think that's interesting. It
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: feels like a great deal for the NBA. Is there
• 10:51
  Speaker 1: anything to the idea that the MGMs data will be faster?
• 10:55
  Speaker 1: Will this help accelerate the opportunity for in game wagering
• 11:00
  Speaker 1: in places where um in game is not available yet? Uh?
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: What about those elements? Yeah, then that is entirely true.
• 11:08
  Speaker 1: So the one, the one thing within play wagering. Now,
• 11:13
  Speaker 1: it depends on how kind of real time you want
• 11:17
  Speaker 1: to get with your bet offering. So in other words,
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: let's let's take a basketball game. If you wanted a
• 11:24
  Speaker 1: book whether or not somebody's making a free is going
• 11:27
  Speaker 1: to make or miss a free throw. A lot of
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: times there's not enough time to actually offer that wager.
• 11:35
  Speaker 1: From any kind of a feed that you're getting, whether
• 11:38
  Speaker 1: it's through direct TV or local broadcast, there's always a
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: few second delay so the theory or or the actual
• 11:46
  Speaker 1: reality is that if you're in the stadium or in
• 11:49
  Speaker 1: the arena and you're able to make that bet as
• 11:54
  Speaker 1: it's happening, you're you can you can almost make the
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: bet after the points been made. So so that so
• 12:03
  Speaker 1: that's one of the reasons that they don't offer that
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: much in play into that granular like in other words,
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: like every second of every every part of the game.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: You can't offer that much real time because you're always
• 12:17
  Speaker 1: on a delay. So with this deal, now the NBA
• 12:21
  Speaker 1: is now giving some real time data which can allow
• 12:27
  Speaker 1: an operator like MGM to offer more in play wagering
• 12:32
  Speaker 1: with real time, so they cannot they can offer more
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: now because they're getting a real time feed as opposed
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: to a three second feed or a six second feed.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: So that you know, it doesn't sound like much, but
• 12:43
  Speaker 1: a six second delay is enough to where I can't
• 12:46
  Speaker 1: book that miss or make free throw proposition because people
• 12:50
  Speaker 1: in the arena are going to see the results before
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: I'm able to book it. So so the you just
• 12:57
  Speaker 1: don't even offer it. Uh So so now out with
• 13:00
  Speaker 1: some real time data, uh you know, you're able to
• 13:04
  Speaker 1: offer more than you were able to offer before, not
• 13:07
  Speaker 1: for nothing, Scooch. Uh, that sounds like a big deal
• 13:12
  Speaker 1: to me. Well, I mean it could be how much
• 13:18
  Speaker 1: in play I guess it depends on where and how
• 13:21
  Speaker 1: much in play you think you're gonna you're gonna drive
• 13:24
  Speaker 1: from it. I mean a lot of people still I'm
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: calling bullshit. I am calling bullshit on you right now, Scooch,
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: because you know, you know that in Europe, in game
• 13:33
  Speaker 1: wagering is blowing up. Is of the handle in Europe,
• 13:37
  Speaker 1: and you know in Nevada at a lot of sports books.
• 13:40
  Speaker 1: Go down to the street, talk to your friend Jake
• 13:42
  Speaker 1: Cornegate at the Westgate. It is becoming like of the
• 13:46
  Speaker 1: handle of some of these sports books. In game wagering
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: with that kind of data is a huge, huge deal,
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: and I think anyone who says that this isn't a
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: good deal for the MGM for that is jealous. Okay,
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: so let me clarify a couple of things. Yeah, it's
• 14:03
  Speaker 1: a big deal, but in terms of actual profits derived
• 14:08
  Speaker 1: from whatever they're gonna get, I'm still skeptical on it
• 14:12
  Speaker 1: because yeah, Europe has their their bets are from in play,
• 14:17
  Speaker 1: but it's on sports European sports like soccer, it's not
• 14:20
  Speaker 1: on American sport. So you see that the pace of
• 14:24
  Speaker 1: a bit of a basketball game, they're running up and
• 14:26
  Speaker 1: down the floor. Let's assume there's no fouls or there's
• 14:29
  Speaker 1: no uh breaks in play. You can't offer anything. They're
• 14:33
  Speaker 1: running back and down the up and down the floor.
• 14:35
  Speaker 1: You can't offer anything until there's a break in the action,
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: and then you offer it. So I actually think of
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: how much, okay, how many more props are you really
• 14:43
  Speaker 1: able to put up as a result of getting that
• 14:46
  Speaker 1: in the NBA? I mean you took free throws? Is one?
• 14:50
  Speaker 1: Where can you think of of another one that you
• 14:52
  Speaker 1: didn't already offer in the first place? You're thinking small?
• 14:56
  Speaker 1: The next level here, seriously, the next level for this
• 15:00
  Speaker 1: And this is what I would do if I were
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: at the MGM, and if j Rude is listening to
• 15:03
  Speaker 1: this podcast, this is what he should do. You don't
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: use humans to book those props. You get an algorithm
• 15:11
  Speaker 1: that updates every single play, so every single play there's
• 15:16
  Speaker 1: an automatic change to what the odds are in the game,
• 15:19
  Speaker 1: as well as automatic new props that come up, and
• 15:22
  Speaker 1: then people make the bets instantaneously. So you take the
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: humans out of the equation, and I guarantee you there's
• 15:28
  Speaker 1: someone at M I T who could build that algorithm
• 15:30
  Speaker 1: right now, that's what everyone's using already on in play.
• 15:34
  Speaker 1: I'm just saying it depends on just how how granular
• 15:38
  Speaker 1: I can't say that word, but how how how minute
• 15:43
  Speaker 1: you want to get with your offerings? I mean, do
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: you want do you want to offer every possession? Just
• 15:50
  Speaker 1: back and forth? I mean, yeah, I guess you can.
• 15:54
  Speaker 1: You do, Scooch, you do because you want, like this is,
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: it's going to be a volume game. It's gonna be
• 16:00
  Speaker 1: a pennies game. It's not gonna be a dollar's game.
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: You want every single penny that comes in, and your
• 16:06
  Speaker 1: handle will grow with the minute bets, not with the
• 16:10
  Speaker 1: side action that comes in before the gamest. Well, if
• 16:14
  Speaker 1: you need me to come out there, if you need
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: me to come out there and figure out how to
• 16:18
  Speaker 1: run everyone's business in Vegas, I'm happy to do it. No, No,
• 16:23
  Speaker 1: I I admit that it's a big deal. I'm just saying,
• 16:27
  Speaker 1: putting a putting a dollar value and a dollar value
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: to it and monetizing it. I think that's kind of
• 16:32
  Speaker 1: a big unknown. And I got rob and I got
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: Robo scoots ready with the algorithms. My friend, Oh, I
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: love Robo Scooch. He is so good. He is so good.
• 16:47
  Speaker 1: The fact you've done the podcast for like three weeks
• 16:49
  Speaker 1: and you're able to do a callback to Robo Scooch
• 16:51
  Speaker 1: is pretty amazing. UM, tells me how much how much
• 16:55
  Speaker 1: you love the podcast. Next, here's my other question for you.
• 16:59
  Speaker 1: We actually have a lot just for the For the record,
• 17:02
  Speaker 1: I didn't even do this in the beginning, and I
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: should have done this, so it's a little late. But um,
• 17:06
  Speaker 1: we are going to talk major football like we are
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: going deep on football in this podcast. UM. But I
• 17:11
  Speaker 1: do need to ask you one more question, which is,
• 17:14
  Speaker 1: are you angry that the MGM did this deal with
• 17:17
  Speaker 1: the n b A our bookmakers angry that the MGM
• 17:21
  Speaker 1: did this deal with the NBA and essentially created to
• 17:25
  Speaker 1: the NBA's demands. I'm not going to speak on behalf
• 17:30
  Speaker 1: of um anyone on that. I've heard some comments from
• 17:35
  Speaker 1: other bookmakers and when when the deal was announced, some
• 17:40
  Speaker 1: other bookmakers in town were not happy at all and
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: they voiced their concern, and the concern was that obviously
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: a lot of the league's want to monetize sports betting.
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: Now that past has been repealed, and again we're trying
• 17:57
  Speaker 1: to say how many real dollars or is that there
• 18:00
  Speaker 1: to be made? Can we can we still make sure
• 18:04
  Speaker 1: that all these entities make millions of dollars and still
• 18:08
  Speaker 1: not affect any of the pricing that would you know,
• 18:12
  Speaker 1: drive money back to illegal markets that that don't have
• 18:16
  Speaker 1: to pay some of these exorbitant fees. I mean, this
• 18:18
  Speaker 1: is kind of what happened, you know in the late
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: nineties and early two thousand's, where some illegal jurisdictions were
• 18:25
  Speaker 1: able to offer more attractive pricing because they just didn't
• 18:30
  Speaker 1: have the overhead. So now you know, there's we need
• 18:34
  Speaker 1: to figure out exactly how much money is out there
• 18:36
  Speaker 1: to be made before we start saying these guys get millions,
• 18:41
  Speaker 1: and these guys get millions, and everyone gets millions, and
• 18:44
  Speaker 1: you know, at the end of the day, does everybody
• 18:48
  Speaker 1: to the operators still make money and it's still worth
• 18:50
  Speaker 1: it to to do it. So there's there's a lot
• 18:53
  Speaker 1: of questions, and like I said, it's really only been
• 18:56
  Speaker 1: a couple of months of actually delving into this where
• 18:59
  Speaker 1: everything's kind of getting flushed out. But some of some
• 19:02
  Speaker 1: of the people around town some of the some of
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: the other bookmakers were not happy with it because just
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: on principle that that's just that's just the NBA, you know,
• 19:12
  Speaker 1: his NFL. Next h the NHL. Gary Batman came out
• 19:16
  Speaker 1: and said that that he wants money, that the NHL
• 19:19
  Speaker 1: wants money. So you know, you can't. You can't give
• 19:24
  Speaker 1: everybody a piece of the action and still have any
• 19:27
  Speaker 1: any money left. You know, Let's say there's let's say
• 19:29
  Speaker 1: you're betting a four team parlay and you're including, uh,
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: let's say you're including a baseball game, a football game,
• 19:37
  Speaker 1: basketball game, hockey game. Let's throw in n C double A.
• 19:41
  Speaker 1: Let's say it's a five team parlay and each league
• 19:43
  Speaker 1: wants one percent of the handle. That's five of the
• 19:47
  Speaker 1: handle that you're giving out to the league's And if
• 19:49
  Speaker 1: your theoretical hold is four and a half percent or
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: five percent, you've made zero money. I mean, the math
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: is there. So it's just you've got to be careful
• 19:59
  Speaker 1: with some of the kind of slippery slope or going
• 20:02
  Speaker 1: down on it. Sounds like the NBA got a good deal, man,
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: they did it right. I think the NBA got a
• 20:10
  Speaker 1: good deal too. I agree with you. Yeah, good for them. Listen,
• 20:15
  Speaker 1: let's transition. Let's transition. It's gonna be interesting how you,
• 20:18
  Speaker 1: as bookmaker to the world, manage this particular scenario. You've
• 20:21
  Speaker 1: got a lot of ground to cover. You gotta go
• 20:24
  Speaker 1: figure out how to topple j Rute and the rest
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: of the MGM. You've got to figure out how to
• 20:28
  Speaker 1: do deals with the NFL and Major League Baseball in
• 20:30
  Speaker 1: the NBA and anyone else. You've got a lot of
• 20:33
  Speaker 1: work before we get there. You and I have to
• 20:37
  Speaker 1: talk about NFL because the Hall of Fame game is
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: tomorrow night. This is Wednesday. Um, people are betting on
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: it NonStop. And we need to talk about futures, and
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: we need to talk about season win totals. I need
• 20:54
  Speaker 1: the five futures right now that are getting the most
• 20:57
  Speaker 1: action from the public and the most action from the
• 21:00
  Speaker 1: wise guys. Um, most action from the public. Uh, I
• 21:08
  Speaker 1: mean you still get the usual contenders, you know, the
• 21:13
  Speaker 1: Patriots and Patriots, Eagles, Steelers. I would say from the public,
• 21:19
  Speaker 1: I would put the Vikings, Packers and Steelers right at
• 21:26
  Speaker 1: the top the top three. That's in terms of yeah,
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: that's in terms of number of tickets. Um, we saw
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: the the Vikings line drop from our opener of twelve
• 21:40
  Speaker 1: to one, we're now down to eight to one on
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: the Vikings, and and most of that is just largely
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: just just public money. Um. I mean we got we
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: got a little on the Raiders, but I would put
• 21:54
  Speaker 1: them probably fourth next to the three I mentioned Vikings, Packers, Deelers,
• 22:00
  Speaker 1: and then probably Raiders is right there, Raiders are right there, Radiators. Interesting.
• 22:07
  Speaker 1: So so you started off saying Patriots, Eagles, Steelers, but
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: then you backtrack and said Vikings, Packers, Steelers, Raiders. So
• 22:14
  Speaker 1: the Patriots is not up there. So the yeah, they're
• 22:18
  Speaker 1: probably fifth and sixth. I mentioned them first because they're
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: the They were the opening top two, uh you know
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: from from the super Bowl, so they were the opening
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: favorites to start the new odds. So but in terms
• 22:33
  Speaker 1: of actual tickets written, um, I think there's those in
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: order of the teams that I just mentioned, So Packers
• 22:42
  Speaker 1: and Vikings, Packers, Steelers, then Raiders and then followed closely
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: by Patriots Eagles. And what if the Packers dropped to
• 22:52
  Speaker 1: the Packers are now down to nine to one, what
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: do they start at? And they opened also at twelve
• 22:57
  Speaker 1: to one, and what about the Steelers and the Steelers
• 23:03
  Speaker 1: are they opened well, actually, the Steelers opened eight to
• 23:09
  Speaker 1: one and they're up to ten to one because most
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: of that public money. You also mentioned who who the
• 23:15
  Speaker 1: wise guys betting, and there's a couple of teams that
• 23:17
  Speaker 1: are getting a lot of money from the wise guys too.
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: We're gonna we're gonna get there. We're gonna get there
• 23:23
  Speaker 1: still on public, public money. Basically, what you've just told
• 23:27
  Speaker 1: me is that, um, you don't respect the public. You
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: have zero respect for the public. You've gone opposite of
• 23:34
  Speaker 1: the public. The public is saying, we like the Steelers,
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: and you're saying, yeah, yeah, we're okay here with a
• 23:40
  Speaker 1: liability here pretty pretty much pretty much. You know, I
• 23:44
  Speaker 1: wasn't real high on him last year too with and
• 23:47
  Speaker 1: you know, I just Roethlisberger's on the kind of downside
• 23:53
  Speaker 1: of his career. I'm sure he's got some some some
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: great games left in him. But you know, the older,
• 23:58
  Speaker 1: the older, we all get. Uh, with the exception of
• 24:01
  Speaker 1: Tom Brady's usually, uh, you drop in your your ability level.
• 24:06
  Speaker 1: What about the Raiders, what have they going from? Uh?
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: The Raiders opened up at the eighteen to one and
• 24:14
  Speaker 1: we're down to twelve to one on them. Um, and
• 24:17
  Speaker 1: that's and that's and that's largely. I mean, you know,
• 24:20
  Speaker 1: I drive by the Raiders Stadium every day on the
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: way to the Orleans. It's only a mile down the road.
• 24:25
  Speaker 1: And uh, you know, there's a lot of enthusiasm around
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: town with the Raiders coming here. You see the logos up,
• 24:30
  Speaker 1: you see the billboards. Uh, it's gonna be. It's it's
• 24:34
  Speaker 1: gonna be just this next couple of years is just
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: gonna be just more and more Raiders branding and co branding.
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: So it's it's gonna be. Uh. There's a lot of
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: embracing of the team, especially with the success of the
• 24:47
  Speaker 1: Vegas Golden Knights and now to have another franchise in
• 24:51
  Speaker 1: another league the NFL. Uh, people are kind of getting
• 24:55
  Speaker 1: excited about it, and they're throwing down a few bucks,
• 24:57
  Speaker 1: even though that the Raiders aren't physically here in in
• 25:00
  Speaker 1: Vegas yet. Okay, So the Vikings, the Packers, I get,
• 25:06
  Speaker 1: the Dealers, I get, they're generally a public team. The Raiders,
• 25:09
  Speaker 1: I understood it as soon as you said it. Pats
• 25:11
  Speaker 1: and Eagles, I totally get. Well, why do we think
• 25:15
  Speaker 1: the Vikings are getting so much public action Dore's everybody
• 25:20
  Speaker 1: believe in Kirk Cousins. So yeah, I think they were
• 25:24
  Speaker 1: looking at last year. I mean, they got so close
• 25:27
  Speaker 1: last year and uh and their defense certainly, uh was
• 25:33
  Speaker 1: a contending team and they're they're still a public team.
• 25:35
  Speaker 1: The Vikings still have a lot of support over the years,
• 25:37
  Speaker 1: even though they've just never quite made it to that
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: that pinnacle. But I think there is a lot of
• 25:44
  Speaker 1: support for Cousins. I think that, uh, there's always been
• 25:48
  Speaker 1: that kind of question mark surrounding the quarterback positions, Like
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: it was always like, Okay, this is really a great team,
• 25:54
  Speaker 1: but just no consistency from the quarterback position, and you know, uh,
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: quarterbacks that they did have that we're good just couldn't
• 26:02
  Speaker 1: stay healthy, like Bridgewater and Bradford, and so they're looking
• 26:06
  Speaker 1: at a guy that, hey, this guy at least can
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: stay healthy, and they've got the rest of the team
• 26:10
  Speaker 1: surrounding them, So I guess they just felt that there
• 26:13
  Speaker 1: was a little value there. So you kind of just
• 26:15
  Speaker 1: jinxed them, which is cool. Yeah, I'm not a King fan,
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: but so we'll tell you. You know, here at the
• 26:22
  Speaker 1: Action Network, we do a show for ESPN Plus and
• 26:26
  Speaker 1: last week, we ran through the season win totals for
• 26:30
  Speaker 1: the NFC North and the a f C South. I
• 26:33
  Speaker 1: had both the Packers and the Vikings going over their
• 26:37
  Speaker 1: season win total. Wow. Yeah, so I would be on
• 26:42
  Speaker 1: that bad win bandwagon. I guess you would say that
• 26:45
  Speaker 1: I'm I'm drunk you public right now, because yeah, yeah,
• 26:51
  Speaker 1: give me something deep, go deep and give me, like,
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: you know, your prediction on maybe the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
• 26:57
  Speaker 1: or something like that. Then I'd be impressed. What is attempt?
• 27:00
  Speaker 1: But what is what? What is the Bucks total right now?
• 27:02
  Speaker 1: What is their season win total? Well, we've got it,
• 27:05
  Speaker 1: We've got it down right now because of because of Winston.
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: Uh so, I mean if the suspension holds up and
• 27:14
  Speaker 1: so there's some there's some question marks on that one. Alright,
• 27:17
  Speaker 1: So pick a team that you might actually you know
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: you how about the Lions under? I chose the Lions under.
• 27:25
  Speaker 1: Here's why I killed the Lions. Yeah, way under. By
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: the way, last year seven and a half or so,
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: everyone knows, don't care, don't care number one, number one.
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: Uh they had big wins last year. They beat I
• 27:39
  Speaker 1: think the Jags, the Saints, they beat the Eagles. Um.
• 27:43
  Speaker 1: They also lost to the Bears, the Giants, the Cowboys,
• 27:48
  Speaker 1: like they had bad losses last year and when they won,
• 27:51
  Speaker 1: they were as usual like cardiac kid teams. And they've
• 27:55
  Speaker 1: got a harder schedule. Um, I am not impressed with
• 27:58
  Speaker 1: what they've done to their boss her and I think
• 28:01
  Speaker 1: in this division where the Vikings are improved, the Packers
• 28:05
  Speaker 1: have Aaron Rodgers back. I actually think the Bears are improved.
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: They are the weakest team in this division. I do
• 28:11
  Speaker 1: not see them winning seven and a half games. Wow,
• 28:13
  Speaker 1: I remember, that's not that's not a John Q public.
• 28:17
  Speaker 1: That's that's that's going deep. I like it. The Robert, Yeah,
• 28:26
  Speaker 1: that was good. I have like this close to taking
• 28:30
  Speaker 1: your job because of my strategy around in game wagering.
• 28:34
  Speaker 1: Like Big Tony is gonna listen to this podcast. He's
• 28:36
  Speaker 1: gonna be like, I gotta get that moment guy. That
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: moment guy deserved an Italian villa villa in a courtyard.
• 28:43
  Speaker 1: I don't know why we gave this. Yeah, let's do
• 28:47
  Speaker 1: um the uh futures? Which of the wise guys on
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: uh the rams? Uh? That was? That was one of
• 28:59
  Speaker 1: the line we opened up at one early on the
• 29:04
  Speaker 1: season and down to seven to one. Now on the
• 29:07
  Speaker 1: rams and a lot of it's uh, a lot of
• 29:10
  Speaker 1: its sharp money, um the rams. The other one got
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: a lot on the forty niners. Um, not a whole
• 29:20
  Speaker 1: lot of public money, but some pretty pretty big bets
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: on the forty niners were at one got bet down
• 29:28
  Speaker 1: to twelve to one, so some money there, um, and
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: a little bit on the broncos. Uh so little just
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: a taste at at thirty five to one. And that
• 29:45
  Speaker 1: was that stupid who did that? Give me? Give me
• 29:49
  Speaker 1: that it's account number, and we're gonna call that person
• 29:52
  Speaker 1: because that is just dumb. That's a waste of money.
• 29:55
  Speaker 1: How much do you have on that one? What's your life?
• 29:59
  Speaker 1: I can and give you the exact liability? Well, what
• 30:03
  Speaker 1: are you talking about? Ball park? Three grand? Eight grand? Grands?
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: Higher than that, higher than fifty grand? Yeah, you have
• 30:13
  Speaker 1: higher than fifty grand. And the broncos what was that one?
• 30:18
  Speaker 1: You're talking about? The liability? Liability are you talking about?
• 30:22
  Speaker 1: You're talking about actual dollars on it? Uh, five figures,
• 30:28
  Speaker 1: five figures? Yeah, one better? Was that? Multiple people? Two betters,
• 30:35
  Speaker 1: two betters? Yeah, I don't know. I don't know about
• 30:40
  Speaker 1: these guys. It sounds like these guys have too much money,
• 30:44
  Speaker 1: and I left one out. There's another team that that
• 30:47
  Speaker 1: actually got some some pretty decent money at fifty two
• 30:50
  Speaker 1: one and and I and I agree with this one
• 30:53
  Speaker 1: and moved it pretty uh pretty aggressively. U the Giants.
• 31:00
  Speaker 1: I gotta tell you, so, what did you move it to? U?
• 31:05
  Speaker 1: How do you feel about the Giants? I am a fan,
• 31:09
  Speaker 1: me too, I am a really big fan. I like
• 31:14
  Speaker 1: their schedule. UM. I thought that team was a flaky
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: mess last year. Uh. Clearly the coach did not know
• 31:24
  Speaker 1: what he was doing. They had no run support. Eli
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: was exposed because he had no run support, and no
• 31:30
  Speaker 1: Odell Beckham Jr. UM. I think this roster is improved
• 31:35
  Speaker 1: just by Odell coming back. I think Sae kwon Berkley,
• 31:40
  Speaker 1: I'm not alone and thinking that he could be sort
• 31:43
  Speaker 1: of Ezekiel Elliott, Leonard four Nette like those two guys,
• 31:48
  Speaker 1: you know, if you look back and the last two guys,
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: they were workhorse running backs. They got the ball lot,
• 31:53
  Speaker 1: they performed the level of expectation. UM. Berkeley is built
• 31:57
  Speaker 1: in that mold. They are a sneaky good team like I. Actually,
• 32:02
  Speaker 1: the Jaguars are four point favorites on the road. Against
• 32:05
  Speaker 1: the Giants at home in Week one. I am going
• 32:07
  Speaker 1: all in on the Giants in that game. I love
• 32:10
  Speaker 1: the three and a half we're down to on that one,
• 32:13
  Speaker 1: and I and I agree with you, and we did
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: move it fast, and I moved the UH. The season
• 32:19
  Speaker 1: win total up two seven over a dollar sixty UH
• 32:25
  Speaker 1: based on largely everything that you said. In addition to
• 32:29
  Speaker 1: some great athletes, UH in the in the defensive secondary
• 32:33
  Speaker 1: that they've got, They've got some of the best athletes
• 32:35
  Speaker 1: at the corner and free safety position. They shored up
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: the offensive line to protect the eli's blindside. I kind
• 32:42
  Speaker 1: of liked I really liked them in their division. I know,
• 32:45
  Speaker 1: I know everyone's looking at the Cowboys and I mean,
• 32:48
  Speaker 1: it's a tough division the Eagles, but I agree with
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: they could be a sneaky team. Yeah, I see. I
• 32:55
  Speaker 1: like the guys who bet on that more than I
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: like the guys who bet on the bron Goes. I
• 33:00
  Speaker 1: think the guys who bet in the Broncos should have
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: their wise guy cards taken away and the guys who
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: betted the Giants should be elevated to the perversity. Yeah.
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: I like the wee can go back. I want to archive.
• 33:15
  Speaker 1: These are that you already archive, and I want to
• 33:18
  Speaker 1: go back and at the end of the season and
• 33:20
  Speaker 1: see and see how well you predicted. Well, at this
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: point like it. What I've predicted is that the Giants
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: are gonna win the Super Bowl. So if they lose,
• 33:30
  Speaker 1: I'm screwed, right, Yeah, but I am predicting. I am predicting, um,
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: the Giants to go over seven wins. I'm reading these downs.
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: So that's why he's taken me seven wins. I'm predicting
• 33:43
  Speaker 1: the Lions to go under seven and a half. Um,
• 33:48
  Speaker 1: what did you do on these two? You were with me?
• 33:50
  Speaker 1: So yeah, I'm with you on the Giants for sure.
• 33:53
  Speaker 1: What about the Lions? The Lions, I like, I don't
• 33:57
  Speaker 1: have a strong opinion on that, but I certainly wouldn't
• 33:59
  Speaker 1: go were the total, So yeah, I'd say I'm with
• 34:03
  Speaker 1: you on that one. You know what we're gonna do.
• 34:05
  Speaker 1: We need Actually I'm pulling a little fake on people.
• 34:09
  Speaker 1: I think we need to break this podcast up into
• 34:10
  Speaker 1: two parts and the next next week we have to
• 34:14
  Speaker 1: do season win totals. Sounds good, We're doing futures. Next
• 34:18
  Speaker 1: week is season win totals. You know what I mean?
• 34:21
  Speaker 1: That sounds good to me. And next week and more
• 34:24
  Speaker 1: than just a few minutes on this, Yeah, next week,
• 34:27
  Speaker 1: Bill Barnwell from ESPN is going to come in the podcast,
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: and maybe what I'll do is I'll have Barnwell come
• 34:33
  Speaker 1: on with you and me so we can have a
• 34:36
  Speaker 1: full on debate. Um, you don't, I know you don't
• 34:38
  Speaker 1: like follow anybody other than yourself, but Well is probably
• 34:46
  Speaker 1: the premier NFL one of the premier NFL writers in
• 34:49
  Speaker 1: the country. He is ESPN's lead NFL columnist. Nice okay,
• 34:56
  Speaker 1: looking forward to that. You're not impressed. You should know
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: me by now. I don't get impressed by anything. Oh,
• 35:06
  Speaker 1: no way, I take that back. I was impressed by
• 35:08
  Speaker 1: your assessment of the Lions season win toll in uh
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: in nearly twenty years of friendship, that's the first time.
• 35:17
  Speaker 1: And then impressed to anything I've said. That's pretty much true.
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: All right, let's review here for a second season, uh
• 35:26
  Speaker 1: super Bowl futures right now? Uh, the wise guys, this
• 35:30
  Speaker 1: is like this is like preseason ranking. So the wise
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: guys um are all over the rams. They've gone from
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: fifteen to one to seven to one, from twenty to
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: one to twelve to one. The Broncos went from thirty
• 35:42
  Speaker 1: five to one. Are they still at thirty five to
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: one or what are they at now? Uh, which I
• 35:50
  Speaker 1: think is stupid. And then the Giants from fifty to
• 35:52
  Speaker 1: one to one. I like, I like the moxie. I
• 35:55
  Speaker 1: don't agree with the bet, but I look, if you're
• 35:58
  Speaker 1: gonna take a flyer that like value, that's a fun
• 36:02
  Speaker 1: one to put in the bank. UM. And I might actually,
• 36:05
  Speaker 1: you know what, I might do that too. I might
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: make it a little that little taste of that giant UM.
• 36:12
  Speaker 1: And then and then if we're talking about the public,
• 36:15
  Speaker 1: John Q. Public, which I don't disagree with them, by
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: the way, UM, also on I'll take that bet. I
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: have gone with the Rams under their season win total
• 36:22
  Speaker 1: and the forty niners over their season win total. UM.
• 36:26
  Speaker 1: And then John Q Public, Uh, we have the Vikings
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: have gone from twenty to one, No, No, from twelve
• 36:34
  Speaker 1: to one to eight to one. That's number one in
• 36:36
  Speaker 1: the one position. The Packers have gone from twelve to
• 36:39
  Speaker 1: one to nine to one. The Steelers have gone from
• 36:42
  Speaker 1: eight to one to ten to one. But that's because
• 36:43
  Speaker 1: you have zero respect for the public when it comes
• 36:46
  Speaker 1: to the Steelers. UM. The Raiders eighteen to one to
• 36:50
  Speaker 1: twelve to one. Uh, here's what's interesting to me. You
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: you conceivably have big liability on this. There's eight to one,
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: and yet you went up and all the other public
• 37:04
  Speaker 1: bets you went down. Yeah. Yeah, I mean sometimes you
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: gotta put put a little bit of opinion into it
• 37:10
  Speaker 1: and just take take a little bit of a stand. Wow,
• 37:14
  Speaker 1: you really don't like the Steelers. Yeah, I just don't
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: think they're getting over the hump. I don't think they're
• 37:19
  Speaker 1: going all the way. I mean, they've got a great team,
• 37:21
  Speaker 1: but you know, it's a long season, and when you're
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: getting a little kind of long in the tooth at
• 37:26
  Speaker 1: the key positions by the end of the year, it's
• 37:30
  Speaker 1: it's tough. It's tough to tough to get that that
• 37:33
  Speaker 1: that trophy. Are you shuffling paper in the background? Are
• 37:36
  Speaker 1: you starting to do something else right now? Are you
• 37:38
  Speaker 1: moving on the next task? I'm not not at all
• 37:41
  Speaker 1: know what I've got the Uh, I've got the headsets in,
• 37:45
  Speaker 1: but sometimes they sound like does it sound like the
• 37:48
  Speaker 1: microphone scratching? Yes, that it sounds like scratching your very stiff,
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: starchy suit color or something like that. That's probably a Yeah,
• 37:58
  Speaker 1: I don't need to get one of those national mis
• 38:00
  Speaker 1: that you have, you know, in the booth and everything. Yeah,
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: you gotta get a full set up, get get listen.
• 38:05
  Speaker 1: You've been podcasting for a while now, you're kind of
• 38:07
  Speaker 1: a star. You should probably upgrade. Why don't you upgrade
• 38:11
  Speaker 1: once once on book once on bookmaker to the US.
• 38:14
  Speaker 1: I'll get that, fancy Mike. All right, I gotta call
• 38:17
  Speaker 1: big talk about that. All right, all right, scared, I'll
• 38:20
  Speaker 1: talk to you next week and we're gonna have a big,
• 38:22
  Speaker 1: big show. We're gonna talk about season win totals for
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: the season. Uh, thank you for coming on your podcast,
• 38:28
  Speaker 1: The Buffet. Thanks Jad, everybody,