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Week 5 College Football Picks for 15 More Games! · Winning Cures Everything | College Football

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: All right, it's College Football Week 5. This is the
• 0:02
  Speaker 1: next 15. This is games 11 through 25 on the
• 0:05
  Speaker 1: Week 5 card. If you caught the 10 best, you
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  Speaker 1: already know where the headliners are. This is where the
• 0:12
  Speaker 1: money gets made. The mid-card games are the games that
• 0:15
  Speaker 1: the books don't sweat nearly as much, right? So let's
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  Speaker 1: go on and hop into it. Welcome in. Winning cures everything.
• 0:25
  Speaker 1: This is College Football Podcast. I'm your host, Gary Seegers,
• 0:27
  Speaker 1: at GaryWCE on all the different socials. Oh, yes. We're
• 0:33
  Speaker 1: in week five. We got a little brown jug. We
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  Speaker 1: got Coach Prime under the lights against the top 15
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  Speaker 1: Texas Tech team. We got a Pac-12 after dark special
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  Speaker 1: in Fort Collins. We've got one total where my model
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  Speaker 1: and the market live in two completely different zip codes.
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  Speaker 1: We're going to talk about all of it. Here's how
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  Speaker 1: it works. Same as always. Every game gets the number.
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  Speaker 1: Every game gets the move. What the model says. The
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  Speaker 1: trends with real sample sizes. The stat gaps. That could
• 1:01
  Speaker 1: actually swing it, the injury and the weather stuff, before
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  Speaker 1: you lock anything in. So, before we roll, if you're
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  Speaker 1: new here, go ahead, hit subscribe, like the video for me,
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: and of course, turn on that bell for notifications. Make
• 1:13
  Speaker 1: sure and jump in the comments. I want to know
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  Speaker 1: your picks on these games. We drop our 10 best
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: videos of the week. We drop our next 15. And
• 1:21
  Speaker 1: then Thursday, we get Three Dog Thursday with TJ and Jason.
• 1:24
  Speaker 1: We've got the Friday pod every week. We've got the
• 1:26
  Speaker 1: reaction pod every week. Of course, that's only on the
• 1:28
  Speaker 1: audio podcast. So there's a lot going on. So try
• 1:33
  Speaker 1: not to miss anything. And, of course, don't forget about buymeacoffee.com
• 1:36
  Speaker 1: slash winningcures. All right. Let's go on and give you
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: a recap of what we have done thus far on
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  Speaker 1: the season. All right. Overall show picks on the year
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  Speaker 1: 54 and 39 against the spread, that is 58.1%. The
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  Speaker 1: model picks have been better by three games, but still better.
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  Speaker 1: 57 and 36, that is 61.3% on the year. Underdogs 22-18.
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  Speaker 1: And last week's show, 13-12 overall, went 5-5 on the
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  Speaker 1: 10 best, 8-7 on the next 15. The model went 15-10.
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  Speaker 1: There you go. Dogs went 3-3 as far as last
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  Speaker 1: week's show. So let's not waste time. Let's get into it.
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  Speaker 1: Game number 11. Vanderbilt heads to Georgia at 11.45 a.m.
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  Speaker 1: Central Time, God's time zone, on the SEC Network Georgia
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  Speaker 1: laying 24.5. The total is 50.5 on this. The spread
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  Speaker 1: has moved up a point from 23.5, but you look
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  Speaker 1: at that total, it opened 57.5. It has been hammered
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  Speaker 1: down seven points. The market thinks this one gets grinded,
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  Speaker 1: and I kind of understand where they're coming from. Vanderbilt, well,
• 2:48
  Speaker 1: we'll get into it. Georgia is 4-0, straight up, 4-0
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  Speaker 1: against the number. They just throttled Oklahoma 41-13. Didn't even
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  Speaker 1: really have to do anything in the second half. It
• 2:57
  Speaker 1: was 28-0 at the half. Vandy lost 21-15 at Auburn.
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  Speaker 1: They covered as a 10-point dog. The last time these
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  Speaker 1: two met, Georgia won 37-20 in Nashville back in 2023. Now,
• 3:09
  Speaker 1: here is where it gets a little spicy, right? My
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  Speaker 1: power rating only has Georgia by 18.6, so the model
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  Speaker 1: is sitting 6 points off on the Vandy side. However,
• 3:22
  Speaker 1: my stats projection says Georgia by 28.5. So, there's two models,
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  Speaker 1: two different directions. I'm very curious. The trends do pick
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  Speaker 1: a side, though. Clark Lee's Vanderbilt team is 14-3 against
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  Speaker 1: the spread in SEC games since 2024. They are 9-1
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  Speaker 1: against the spread as a road dog. And Kirby, as
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  Speaker 1: a 21-point home favorite, 5-17-1 against the spread since 2021. Like,
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  Speaker 1: that's not noise. That is a pattern. And Yes, they
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  Speaker 1: absolutely blew out everybody this far on the season. Georgia
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  Speaker 1: is 4-0 against the spread, but next week is Alabama. Yeah.
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  Speaker 1: Stat gap to know here, Georgia number one in the
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  Speaker 1: country in first half margin, plus 29.7. Vandy is 13th
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  Speaker 1: in second half margin. So, Vandy number 108 in first
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  Speaker 1: half point margin. This thing could get ugly early. So,
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  Speaker 1: you shaped the game the right way. Georgia early, Vandy late.
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  Speaker 1: Georgia also gets the fewest drives per game in FBS.
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  Speaker 1: Fewer possessions makes 24.5 a pretty tall hill to climb
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  Speaker 1: in this one. As far as injuries, Georgia wide receiver
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  Speaker 1: Canyon is out with a leg injury. The running back
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  Speaker 1: Dowdle is out. Frazier is questionable. I wouldn't be surprised
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  Speaker 1: if they hold Frazier out for this one as well.
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  Speaker 1: They held him out for Oklahoma. You want him healthy
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  Speaker 1: for the Alabama game. Vandy's tight end Spence is questionable.
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  Speaker 1: Weather in this one, 78°C. Going to be a 55%
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  Speaker 1: chance of rain in Athens on this. You start looking
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  Speaker 1: into points per scoring opportunity, etc. Vandy can't finish drives,
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  Speaker 1: number 116. Points per scoring opportunity is how many points
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  Speaker 1: do you score on average when you get a first
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  Speaker 1: down inside the opponent, 40. Vanderbilt is terrible at it.
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  Speaker 1: Georgia's defense is not great at stopping at number 47.
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  Speaker 1: But Georgia also doesn't allow a lot of scoring opportunities, so...
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  Speaker 1: You know, they're number 11 in the country there. On
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  Speaker 1: the other side, Georgia's offense, number 1 in the country
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  Speaker 1: in points per scoring opportunity, so they finish drives. Vandy's defense,
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  Speaker 1: number 43. The issue for Vanderbilt here is that their
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  Speaker 1: offense is putrid. Absolutely putrid. They're number 68 in giveaways
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  Speaker 1: per game. Georgia is number 8 in takeaways per game.
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  Speaker 1: And yet, this thing is all the way up at 24.5.
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  Speaker 1: My stats say that that's not enough. My power rating says,
• 5:54
  Speaker 1: let's hold up a minute. As long as Vanderbilt doesn't
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  Speaker 1: turn the ball over, I don't expect to see anything
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  Speaker 1: other than just the most vanilla game plan that you
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  Speaker 1: can possibly get out of Vanderbilt in this. Again, power rating,
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  Speaker 1: Georgia minus 18.6. Stats model, Georgia minus 28.5. The spread
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  Speaker 1: is Georgia minus 24.5. I'm going to take Vanderbilt to
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  Speaker 1: stay within that number. I'm going to trust these trends
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  Speaker 1: with Clark Lee. This is a look-ahead spot. Kind of
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  Speaker 1: a let-down look-ahead spot, right? Because Georgia just destroyed Oklahoma.
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  Speaker 1: Now they've got a game at Alabama next week. Vanderbilt
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  Speaker 1: right there, sandwich. I'll take Commodores. I don't feel great
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  Speaker 1: about it. If this were a normal spot, I think
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  Speaker 1: Georgia would crush them. But could we see this game
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  Speaker 1: being 31-10? Something like that? Yeah, I could see that.
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  Speaker 1: I could absolutely see that. So, If that is the case, 37-14,
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  Speaker 1: something along those lines, yeah. Give me Vandy plus 24.5.
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  Speaker 1: Game number 12, Michigan at Minnesota. This one's for the
• 7:03
  Speaker 1: Little Brown Jug. It's 11 a.m. Central Time, God's time
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  Speaker 1: zone on Fox. Michigan laying 5.5. The total is 43.5 now.
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  Speaker 1: This line opened Michigan at 8.5. It is down to 5.5.
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  Speaker 1: I mean, that's three full points of gopher money, right?
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  Speaker 1: Which makes sense. Minnesota won at Washington. Michigan lost at
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  Speaker 1: home to Iowa. I get it. Is what it is.
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  Speaker 1: This is year one for Kyle Whittingham and Ann Arbor.
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  Speaker 1: They're coming off a 20-19 home loss to Iowa. P.J.
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  Speaker 1: Fleck went into Seattle as a double-digit dog and won
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  Speaker 1: outright 27-24. The last time these two met, Michigan held
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  Speaker 1: on 27-24 back in 2024. The model check on this
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  Speaker 1: shows Michigan by, well, the power rating has Michigan by 5.2
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  Speaker 1: So the market basically caught up to that. The stats
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  Speaker 1: projection says Michigan by less than a point. That's five
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  Speaker 1: points of advantage on the Minnesota side. The trend of
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  Speaker 1: the day on this one, Minnesota at home with a
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  Speaker 1: total under 45, 2-9-1 to be over since 2021. That
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  Speaker 1: is 82% under. And Whittingham is a road favorite of
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  Speaker 1: less than 10, 3-10-1 against the spread since 2021. Most
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  Speaker 1: of that was at Utah, so we've got to give
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  Speaker 1: it a little bit of salt here, but that's still
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  Speaker 1: his coaching footprint. The stat gap that decides it is
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  Speaker 1: that Minnesota cannot run the ball at all. Their rushing
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  Speaker 1: PPA is 127th. Offensive line yard is number 134, as
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  Speaker 1: you can see right here. Big advantage for Michigan there.
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  Speaker 1: They're running into a Michigan run defense that's top 20.
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  Speaker 1: Michigan's offense is not exactly lighting anything up. They are,
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  Speaker 1: let's see, number 134 in rushing explosiveness. That's not good. Well,
• 8:59
  Speaker 1: good gracious, I was going to try and highlight it here.
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  Speaker 1: Rushing explosiveness, number 134 in rushing explosiveness. Number 109 in
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  Speaker 1: red zone trips. They are number, there we go, red
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  Speaker 1: zone appearances per game, number 109. And they are number
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  Speaker 1: 109 in turnover margin. Minnesota decided advantage in that one.
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  Speaker 1: Both teams play slow. You start looking at pace, Michigan 111,
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  Speaker 1: Minnesota number 130. This is rock fight in a phone
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  Speaker 1: booth kind of stuff. As far as injuries, Michigan's offensive
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  Speaker 1: guard Sprague is out. Minnesota's running back room is pretty thin.
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  Speaker 1: Taylor and Estrada are both out. The weather here, 57 degrees,
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  Speaker 1: 10 mile an hour wind. Going to have a pretty
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  Speaker 1: dry day in Minneapolis, I believe. You start diving into
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  Speaker 1: some of these trends, and Whittingham just hasn't been... back
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  Speaker 1: well after losses. Low total, slow teams, the jugs on
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  Speaker 1: the line. Minnesota is, as far as five factors raw rank,
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  Speaker 1: number 38, Michigan number 50, but then you toss in
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  Speaker 1: talent and Minnesota... number 39, Michigan number 13. But I
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  Speaker 1: still feel like this might be too many points. Like,
• 10:26
  Speaker 1: could you see a Michigan 21-17 win? Yeah, absolutely. The
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  Speaker 1: fact that Michigan is not explosive, that's maybe something. Now,
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  Speaker 1: they did play their best offensive game of the year
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  Speaker 1: last week. They just couldn't finish drives. And that's what
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  Speaker 1: I always get down to is who can finish drives.
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  Speaker 1: Minnesota number 93 in points per scoring opportunity. Michigan's defense
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  Speaker 1: is number seven in points allowed. On the other side,
• 10:48
  Speaker 1: Michigan number 108 in points per scoring opportunity. Minnesota number
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  Speaker 1: 127 in points allowed. I don't like it. Give me
• 10:59
  Speaker 1: Michigan on the road minus five and a half. I'm
• 11:05
  Speaker 1: going against my power rating. I'm going against my stat
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  Speaker 1: spread or stat projection. Stat model, if you will. But
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  Speaker 1: I think Michigan bounces back. Minnesota coming off of a
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  Speaker 1: big win. I think the talent might just be a
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  Speaker 1: little too much on the line of scrimmage. I will
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  Speaker 1: take the Wolverines to cover. Game number 13, Maryland at Nebraska.
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  Speaker 1: 3 o'clock central on FS1. Nebraska land 14.5 points. Total
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  Speaker 1: is 52.5. And this one has moved significantly towards Nebraska
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  Speaker 1: from 12.5 up to 14.5. No real surprise because Maryland
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: just got boat raced 54-3 by UCLA. I mean, 54-3.
• 11:40
  Speaker 1: That's so ridiculous. Nebraska is 4-0. They beat Michigan State
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  Speaker 1: 31-13 on the road, and they covered last week. Last
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  Speaker 1: year in College Park, Nebraska rallied to win 34-31. A
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  Speaker 1: thing to pay attention to with Michigan State last week.
• 12:00
  Speaker 1: Lost some linebackers, lost some cornerbacks, etc. How much of
• 12:06
  Speaker 1: that can you really point towards Nebraska? You start diving
• 12:10
  Speaker 1: into this, Nebraska number two in PPA per drive. On offense,
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: that's pretty good, and the defense has been showing up
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: as well. So that is certainly something to pay attention to.
• 12:22
  Speaker 1: But their defense, you know, number 122 in defensive red
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  Speaker 1: zone touchdown rate, even still, this Nebraska defense is number
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  Speaker 1: 24 in points per scoring opportunity. They don't allow a
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  Speaker 1: lot of scoring opportunities. When they do, they typically don't
• 12:35
  Speaker 1: allow a lot of points. On the other side, Nebraska
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  Speaker 1: number nine in points per scoring opportunity. Maryland number 117.
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  Speaker 1: The power rating says Nebraska by 13.8. Up here, which
• 12:52
  Speaker 1: you can see. The stats projection has Nebraska by 20.6.
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  Speaker 1: Stats total is 59. Like that's six and a half
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  Speaker 1: over the market here. You start going through trends. Mike
• 13:09
  Speaker 1: Loxley off of a loss, 10-24 against the spread since 2021.
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  Speaker 1: That's a large sample. Maryland in Big Ten play, 16-30
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  Speaker 1: against the spread. There's also a Loxley overtrend. It only
• 13:23
  Speaker 1: applies at 51 or lower. I mean, this number is 52.5.
• 13:30
  Speaker 1: You start looking into more stat gaps. Nebraska second in
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  Speaker 1: offense per drive, sixth in PPA margin. They scored touchdowns
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  Speaker 1: in 91.7% of their red zone trips. Maryland's defense has
• 13:39
  Speaker 1: allowed a touchdown on every single red zone trip this year.
• 13:43
  Speaker 1: That's a small sample, but 100% red zone touchdown rate allowed? Like,
• 13:49
  Speaker 1: that is ugly. Maryland throws the ball 62% of the time,
• 13:52
  Speaker 1: and I get it because their quarterback, Malik Washington, is
• 13:55
  Speaker 1: really good. But Nebraska's pass defense is top 10 in PPA.
• 14:00
  Speaker 1: Number 9 in PPA allowed per pass. Number 27 in
• 14:02
  Speaker 1: yards allowed per attempt. Number 14 in QBR allowed. You know,
• 14:06
  Speaker 1: not great. Nebraska's first half point margin, plus 16.6, good
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  Speaker 1: for number seven in the country. Maryland's is minus 6.7.
• 14:14
  Speaker 1: That's number 103 in the country. So first half Nebraska
• 14:18
  Speaker 1: play might be worth a spot here. Maryland, their backup quarterback, Williams,
• 14:28
  Speaker 1: listed as probable. They're down to a defensive line, a
• 14:30
  Speaker 1: running back, and a linebacker. Or they're down a defensive lineman,
• 14:32
  Speaker 1: a running back, and a linebacker. Nebraska's tight end, Nelson's questionable.
• 14:38
  Speaker 1: Weather's supposed to be pretty calm, 64 degrees in Lincoln.
• 14:40
  Speaker 1: Don't think weather's going to be an issue. The Huskers
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  Speaker 1: are rolling. The Terps are reeling. I mean, I know
• 14:51
  Speaker 1: that this thing is, what is it, 14.5? I'm going
• 14:57
  Speaker 1: to take Nebraska anyway. Nebraska minus 14.5 is the way
• 15:01
  Speaker 1: that I'll go on it. Favorites have done pretty well
• 15:04
  Speaker 1: this year. And I just don't think that these numbers
• 15:07
  Speaker 1: are catching up to these bad teams. I think Maryland
• 15:09
  Speaker 1: might be in quit mode. Maybe this is one last hurrah,
• 15:15
  Speaker 1: but I'm not buying it. I just don't think this
• 15:17
  Speaker 1: team is very good. And Nebraska, I think, is surprising people.
• 15:23
  Speaker 1: Everybody thought last year would be the Matt Rule year.
• 15:26
  Speaker 1: It might be this year. So give me the Cornhuskers
• 15:29
  Speaker 1: minus 14.5 at home. Game number 14, Michigan State at Wisconsin, 11.30 a.m.
• 15:36
  Speaker 1: Central Time on the Big Ten Network. Badgers favored by 10.5.
• 15:39
  Speaker 1: The total is 43.5. That is half a point up
• 15:42
  Speaker 1: on the spread and a point down on the total
• 15:46
  Speaker 1: since Sunday. Luke Fickle just got the signature win of
• 15:49
  Speaker 1: his Wisconsin tenure. Kind of. I mean, he had some
• 15:53
  Speaker 1: pretty good wins. They, you know, beat Washington last year.
• 15:58
  Speaker 1: He's had some good wins. But 24-20 at Penn State
• 16:03
  Speaker 1: is a 9.5 point dog, 10 point dog, whatever it was.
• 16:07
  Speaker 1: It was pretty good. Year one for Pat Fitzgerald and
• 16:09
  Speaker 1: East Lansing. They just got smacked around by Nebraska 31-13.
• 16:11
  Speaker 1: The last time these two teams played. Double overtime Spartan
• 16:16
  Speaker 1: win back in 2022. Now the model has Wisconsin, well
• 16:20
  Speaker 1: power rating, has Wisconsin by 7.5. Three points on the
• 16:25
  Speaker 1: Spartan side. Stat side, stat model has Wisconsin by 11.
• 16:30
  Speaker 1: So the two models are split. The trend that I
• 16:34
  Speaker 1: want you to pay attention to on this, Luke fickle
• 16:37
  Speaker 1: in October five and 16 to the over that is
• 16:40
  Speaker 1: 76% under since 2021, Wisconsin at home since 24, four
• 16:46
  Speaker 1: and 12 over under a lot of unders stacking up
• 16:50
  Speaker 1: as far as stat gaps, Michigan state's offense, number one
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  Speaker 1: 19 and PPA per drive number one 27 and explosiveness. Um,
• 17:00
  Speaker 1: That's not great, but at the same time, Wisconsin only
• 17:03
  Speaker 1: number 94 in explosiveness, so it is what it is.
• 17:08
  Speaker 1: Michigan State number 119 in turnover margin. They're allowing Havoc
• 17:12
  Speaker 1: on 19% of snaps. That is 128th. So right there.
• 17:20
  Speaker 1: Where's their Havoc? Havoc rate allowed. So Wisconsin is only
• 17:24
  Speaker 1: number 66, but their defense is pretty good against the pass,
• 17:27
  Speaker 1: and they're not terrible against the run. Wisconsin's defense, number
• 17:32
  Speaker 1: four in passing down success allowed. Michigan State, number 104
• 17:38
  Speaker 1: in passing down success. So, what's the way that Michigan
• 17:43
  Speaker 1: State can cover this spread? Wisconsin's not very good running
• 17:48
  Speaker 1: the football. You look at this, number 123 in rushing
• 17:52
  Speaker 1: success rate. They've scored touchdowns on only 44% of red
• 17:55
  Speaker 1: zone touchdowns. trips. That's number 127 in the country. Now
• 18:03
  Speaker 1: they are number one in red zone conversion percentage, 100%,
• 18:07
  Speaker 1: but you start looking at points for scoring opportunity, they're
• 18:10
  Speaker 1: number 75, 3.47. So that's a lot of field goals.
• 18:13
  Speaker 1: Field goals keep dogs alive. The wide receivers, Domingo and
• 18:21
  Speaker 1: Coleman are questionable. Running back Brian Jackson, the second, missed
• 18:24
  Speaker 1: the Penn State game. That's the only injuries really that
• 18:29
  Speaker 1: Michigan State's got a lot of guys dinged up. They
• 18:31
  Speaker 1: had a lot of guys that went out, didn't come
• 18:33
  Speaker 1: back in the Nebraska game last week. Weather, 60 degrees,
• 18:38
  Speaker 1: light wind in Madison. I don't think it's anything to
• 18:40
  Speaker 1: write home about. I mean, you start looking at this, 10.5. Now,
• 18:49
  Speaker 1: my stats total here, 49 on this. But all those
• 18:55
  Speaker 1: trends to the under, I mean, good gracious, 10%. I
• 19:00
  Speaker 1: don't feel great about it, and I don't feel great
• 19:01
  Speaker 1: about this Wisconsin offense. Number 84 in PPA per drive. Now,
• 19:05
  Speaker 1: Michigan State's defense isn't great, but also Michigan State, number
• 19:08
  Speaker 1: 19 in current strength schedule. They've played Nebraska. They've played
• 19:10
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame. They've played Toledo. They've played some pretty rough teams.
• 19:17
  Speaker 1: And Michigan State, 3-1 against the spread thus far, so
• 19:20
  Speaker 1: even if they lose games, they are still doing well.
• 19:26
  Speaker 1: Number 110 in points per game on offense. That ain't
• 19:28
  Speaker 1: going to cut it. But that's a Pat Fitzgerald team.
• 19:34
  Speaker 1: This is a huge letdown spot for Wisconsin. I could
• 19:40
  Speaker 1: easily see Michigan State not winning, but keeping this thing
• 19:44
  Speaker 1: within like 10. The injuries really are piling up for
• 19:52
  Speaker 1: Michigan state. They're just dinged up, like super dinged up. Um,
• 19:56
  Speaker 1: but man would have let down spot for Wisconsin. I will,
• 20:01
  Speaker 1: I will take Michigan state plus 10 and a half. Um,
• 20:07
  Speaker 1: just a huge, I still think Wisconsin wins the game,
• 20:12
  Speaker 1: but you could totally see them winning by only a touchdown,
• 20:14
  Speaker 1: 10 points, something like that. And I know they got
• 20:17
  Speaker 1: guys out, but you look at pace of play, number
• 20:22
  Speaker 1: 115 for Michigan State, number 86 for Wisconsin. Wisconsin's going
• 20:26
  Speaker 1: to try and run the football. Michigan State can't do anything.
• 20:32
  Speaker 1: I mean, congratulations. They'll find a way to score some
• 20:34
  Speaker 1: points somewhere, but man, uh, I don't feel good about it,
• 20:39
  Speaker 1: but as far as show purposes, I'm not going to
• 20:42
  Speaker 1: bet this, but I will take Michigan State plus 10.5.
• 20:46
  Speaker 1: Game 15, Baylor at Arizona State. This is the late-night special. 9.30
• 20:50
  Speaker 1: Central on ESPN. Sun Devils by four. Total is 49.5
• 20:55
  Speaker 1: on this. That's up half a point on the spread,
• 20:58
  Speaker 1: down two on the total. Makes sense. Arizona State coming
• 21:02
  Speaker 1: off a bye. They beat Kansas on a neutral field.
• 21:06
  Speaker 1: Got the bye, now they're rested, whatever. They went to
• 21:09
  Speaker 1: play a game in London. I mean, just ridiculous. Baylor
• 21:12
  Speaker 1: handled Colorado by 10 last week. Covered. Last year, Arizona
• 21:17
  Speaker 1: State won this game. Did Baylor win by 10 or
• 21:25
  Speaker 1: by 13? Either way, they covered last week. Arizona State
• 21:30
  Speaker 1: beat Baylor 27-24 last year. Now here is where my
• 21:34
  Speaker 1: model starts waving its arms. Right? Power rating says Baylor by. 4.
• 21:39
  Speaker 1: So it's got the road team favored. It's 4.5 points
• 21:43
  Speaker 1: on the Baylor side. Stats say Arizona State by 1.5.
• 21:47
  Speaker 1: Both models are on the Baylor side. The trends do
• 21:51
  Speaker 1: not agree, though. Kenny Dillingham, 29-1 against the spread since 2024.
• 21:55
  Speaker 1: 12-4-1 against the spread as a favorite. Dave Aranda in October,
• 21:59
  Speaker 1: 13-4 to the over. Now my number doesn't like that over,
• 22:04
  Speaker 1: but still. The biggest stat gap on this game, probably
• 22:08
  Speaker 1: the biggest on the whole card. Arizona State, number 137
• 22:11
  Speaker 1: in special teams efficiency. Baylor is third. In a four-point game,
• 22:17
  Speaker 1: that's a hidden touchdown. Arizona State's offense, number 114 in
• 22:22
  Speaker 1: PPA per drive. A lot of that has to do
• 22:26
  Speaker 1: with turnovers and whatnot. Both teams outside the top 100
• 22:29
  Speaker 1: as far as giveaways per game, but Baylor at least
• 22:32
  Speaker 1: gets takeaways. They're number 19 in takeaways per game. Arizona State,
• 22:38
  Speaker 1: number 131 in standard down PPA. They don't stay ahead
• 22:40
  Speaker 1: of the chains. Right there. Yeah, you can see it
• 22:46
  Speaker 1: on there. They're number 127 on third down. Their second
• 22:50
  Speaker 1: half margin is minus eight and a half. Baylor plays fast,
• 22:55
  Speaker 1: like really fast. Number three in plays per minute. They're
• 22:58
  Speaker 1: number one in plays per game on offense. They're also sloppy. Like, Baylor, 8.5
• 23:04
  Speaker 1: penalties per game. That's number 116 in the country. But
• 23:11
  Speaker 1: Arizona State is number 136 in opponent penalties per game,
• 23:14
  Speaker 1: so we'll see what that looks like. As far as injuries,
• 23:18
  Speaker 1: Arizona State, the offensive guard, Hilton, their tight end, Anderson,
• 23:21
  Speaker 1: and the wide receiver, Hossman, is out. Baylor is down safety, Reddington. Weather,
• 23:26
  Speaker 1: 84 degrees at kick, bone dry on this one. I
• 23:31
  Speaker 1: look at this and... You start diving into strength of schedule,
• 23:36
  Speaker 1: talent rank, five factors, you know, blah, blah, blah, blah.
• 23:41
  Speaker 1: And I think these two teams are pretty similar, pretty close.
• 23:49
  Speaker 1: Both have better defenses than offenses. Arizona State's offense is worse.
• 23:55
  Speaker 1: Baylor with DJ Lagway back is okay. Uh, I'm curious
• 24:00
  Speaker 1: to see what Spavitol has drawn up here. Um, I'm
• 24:04
  Speaker 1: going to side with the model on this. Yeah. There's
• 24:07
  Speaker 1: been market love for Arizona state. I'm going to go
• 24:10
  Speaker 1: the other way. Give me Baylor plus four on the road.
• 24:13
  Speaker 1: I will take the road bears here to, uh, keep
• 24:16
  Speaker 1: it within that number would not shock me if they
• 24:19
  Speaker 1: found a way to win this game outright. Uh, Arizona state.
• 24:22
  Speaker 1: I just, I don't think this team is very good.
• 24:28
  Speaker 1: Maybe that's just me, but this Baylor defense, I think
• 24:31
  Speaker 1: is absolutely legit. Um, So I think that's the direction
• 24:37
  Speaker 1: I'm going. I think it's going to be super tight.
• 24:40
  Speaker 1: This coin flip kind of game, I will always take
• 24:41
  Speaker 1: the dog when I feel like we've got a coin
• 24:44
  Speaker 1: flip situation. So that's where I'm going for this. Baylor
• 24:48
  Speaker 1: plus four. Want extra Winning Cures Everything content and a
• 24:53
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• 24:56
  Speaker 1: slash winningcures and become part of the community today. Shirts, hoodies, hats,
• 25:03
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• 25:07
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• 25:12
  Speaker 1: slash store. Game 16, UCF at Houston, 11 a.m. Central
• 25:18
  Speaker 1: Time on ESPN2. The Cougs are laying 12-and-a-half here. Total
• 25:21
  Speaker 1: is 51-and-a-half. It opened there. It dipped to 11-and-a-half. It
• 25:25
  Speaker 1: came right back up. Houston is ranked number 20. They
• 25:28
  Speaker 1: didn't cover against Georgia Southern, which... I'm not going to
• 25:32
  Speaker 1: hold that too much against them. Willie Fritz started coaching
• 25:34
  Speaker 1: at Georgia Southern. He took the trip. You don't see
• 25:38
  Speaker 1: that very often. A Power 4 team going to play
• 25:41
  Speaker 1: at a Sunbelt team, unless you're in the ACC. But
• 25:46
  Speaker 1: either way. UCF went out last week. They beat TCU
• 25:49
  Speaker 1: 21-13 as a home dog. Last year, Houston won this
• 25:52
  Speaker 1: game 30-27 in Orlando. This is a really big spread gap.
• 25:59
  Speaker 1: My power rating says Houston by 5.4. That's seven points
• 26:04
  Speaker 1: off the market. The stats projection says Houston by 8.3.
• 26:08
  Speaker 1: Both models say the number's too big. Trends pull the
• 26:11
  Speaker 1: other way, though. Willie Fritz, 32-7 straight up as a favorite.
• 26:14
  Speaker 1: Houston is 12-5 against the spread in October since 2021.
• 26:19
  Speaker 1: UCF and Conference play 10-19 against the spread. As far
• 26:24
  Speaker 1: as stat gaps, Houston's passing game is pretty legit. They
• 26:28
  Speaker 1: are number 10 in PPA per pass. number one in
• 26:31
  Speaker 1: passing success rate. So Connor Wigman doing his thing. They're
• 26:35
  Speaker 1: number one in the country on third down. Like their
• 26:38
  Speaker 1: third down conversion percentage is 71%. That's crazy. They're seventh
• 26:44
  Speaker 1: in offense in PBA per drive. But UCF's defense is
• 26:49
  Speaker 1: 20th per drive. They're number seven in rushing success allowed.
• 26:53
  Speaker 1: They're okay against the pass. Number 67 in passing success rate.
• 26:58
  Speaker 1: Number 46 in yards at allowed per attempt, they're all right.
• 27:03
  Speaker 1: They're number one in the country in rushing explosiveness on offense. Now,
• 27:09
  Speaker 1: they don't do it on a down-to-down basis, number 84
• 27:11
  Speaker 1: in rushing success rate, but they're eighth in takeaways. They're
• 27:16
  Speaker 1: a second-half team. They're plus 9.7 in the second half.
• 27:20
  Speaker 1: Houston is a first-half team, plus 9.6 in the first half.
• 27:24
  Speaker 1: So you're going to have a tale of two halves here. Injuries,
• 27:28
  Speaker 1: kind of... I think injuries matter in this one. UCF
• 27:31
  Speaker 1: quarterback Alonzo Barnett is questionable with hamstring. Reports say that
• 27:37
  Speaker 1: he stayed out with Jenkins running the offense. And Jenkins
• 27:42
  Speaker 1: did okay last week. He wasn't great. But either way,
• 27:46
  Speaker 1: Houston is down two receivers, Stroger and Tunkara. Tunkara? Y'all
• 27:54
  Speaker 1: correct me in the comments. Plus the tight end McGarry.
• 27:57
  Speaker 1: Weather is 79 degrees. You got almost a 60% chance
• 28:00
  Speaker 1: of rain in Houston. I'm interested in this. I think
• 28:06
  Speaker 1: UCF is better than some people realize. Now, obviously, the
• 28:09
  Speaker 1: talent rank is not there. Houston number 67. Sorry, Houston
• 28:14
  Speaker 1: number 31, UCF number 67. Houston special team's not great,
• 28:18
  Speaker 1: number 90. They don't turn the ball over much. But
• 28:23
  Speaker 1: UCF is better in turnover margin. UCF is number eight
• 28:25
  Speaker 1: in takeaways per game. That is pretty awesome. This is
• 28:32
  Speaker 1: the loudest disagreement on this show as far as the spread.
• 28:35
  Speaker 1: So I'm going to side with the model. The model's
• 28:38
  Speaker 1: been better than I have. I will take UCF plus 12.5.
• 28:44
  Speaker 1: I know there's been some market love for Houston. I
• 28:48
  Speaker 1: just think UCF is a pretty good football team. And
• 28:52
  Speaker 1: I think they can keep this thing within that number,
• 28:54
  Speaker 1: within 12.5. So, I mean, you could totally see a
• 28:56
  Speaker 1: 31-20 game, and that covers. Yeah, that covers. I'll feel
• 29:01
  Speaker 1: right about that. So, UCF plus 12.5 for show purposes.
• 29:05
  Speaker 1: Game number 17, Cincinnati at Arizona. This one 10 p.m.
• 29:09
  Speaker 1: Central Time on Fox. Go ahead, put the coffee on
• 29:13
  Speaker 1: if you're wanting to stay up for this one. Good gracious.
• 29:15
  Speaker 1: Wildcats are favored by 7. Total is 54.5. The line
• 29:17
  Speaker 1: opened Arizona minus 8.5. It's been back down to 7.
• 29:21
  Speaker 1: Cincinnati 4-0. They beat Kansas State 31-26 as a dog.
• 29:23
  Speaker 1: Arizona 3-1 straight up. 0-4 against the number. That is crazy. Crazy.
• 29:24
  Speaker 1: Last year, Arizona won this 30-24 in Cincinnati. That is crazy. Crazy.
• 29:35
  Speaker 1: Last year, Arizona won this 30-24 in Cincinnati. As far
• 29:40
  Speaker 1: as the model goes, the power rating has Arizona by 2.9.
• 29:44
  Speaker 1: The stat model has Arizona minus 1.75. You're talking 4-5
• 29:50
  Speaker 1: points on the Bearcat side from both models. The trends
• 29:56
  Speaker 1: are kind of a tug-of-war here. Brent Brennan off a
• 30:00
  Speaker 1: spread loss, 9-22, or 9-22-1 since 2021. Arizona is 10-19
• 30:02
  Speaker 1: against the spread since 2024. But Cincinnati, as an underdog,
• 30:04
  Speaker 1: 7-18-1 against the spread. They're 2-8-1 as a road dog
• 30:06
  Speaker 1: of 3+. And the total trend that kind of pops
• 30:07
  Speaker 1: off the page, Arizona with a total of 54.5 or higher,
• 30:09
  Speaker 1: 2-13 to the over since 2024. 87% under. As far
• 30:31
  Speaker 1: as stat gaps go, like Cincinnati runs it a lot.
• 30:37
  Speaker 1: They average six and a half a carry. They're fourth
• 30:39
  Speaker 1: in rushing explosiveness. They score touchdowns on 93% of their
• 30:43
  Speaker 1: red zone trips, which you can see right here. They
• 30:52
  Speaker 1: have zero interceptions, but their run defense is number 134
• 30:55
  Speaker 1: in success rate. Arizona's run offense is 22nd in success rate.
• 31:02
  Speaker 1: Turnover margin, Cincy plus one, Arizona minus. 75. Yeah, that
• 31:08
  Speaker 1: certainly plays into Cincy's favor. And as far as the
• 31:11
  Speaker 1: halves go, Arizona way better in the first half. Cincinnati
• 31:18
  Speaker 1: way better in the second half. Way better in the
• 31:20
  Speaker 1: second half. This is Cincinnati's first road trip of the season.
• 31:27
  Speaker 1: Curious how they're going to do with it being a
• 31:29
  Speaker 1: late-night game, with it being the first road trip. Arizona's
• 31:33
  Speaker 1: at home, etc., right? Arizona's down their safety. Austin, their
• 31:36
  Speaker 1: wide receiver, Richardson. Brennan, Warren, and Rusk are all questionable.
• 31:41
  Speaker 1: Couldn't find any injuries on the Cincy side. We shall see.
• 31:47
  Speaker 1: We shall see. Weather, 76 degrees. Wind is going to
• 31:50
  Speaker 1: be between 12 and 21. Mile-an-hour gusts. Okay. I'm curious.
• 31:58
  Speaker 1: Arizona has looked really good this year. Cincinnati can do
• 32:03
  Speaker 1: some things pretty well. Cincinnati's offense, number 17 in PPA
• 32:08
  Speaker 1: per drive, but that defense leaves a lot to be desired. Um,
• 32:14
  Speaker 1: I'm going to side with the model here. I think
• 32:16
  Speaker 1: since he can keep this game pretty close, if for
• 32:20
  Speaker 1: no other reason than I think running the football is
• 32:24
  Speaker 1: going to make it a slower game, uh, Cincy is
• 32:28
  Speaker 1: number 61 in plays per minute. Arizona is number 100.
• 32:32
  Speaker 1: So kind of expecting a little more plotting, slower, that
• 32:38
  Speaker 1: kind of thing. I like the late night dog. I
• 32:44
  Speaker 1: like the late night dog. So I will roll with
• 32:47
  Speaker 1: the Bearcats. Give me Cincinnati plus seven here because I
• 32:52
  Speaker 1: think this thing closes on the opposite side of this.
• 32:56
  Speaker 1: I don't know how much love there's going to be
• 32:58
  Speaker 1: for an 0-4 against the spread Arizona team. Just a guess.
• 33:03
  Speaker 1: Game number 18, Louisville at NC State. It's 2.30 p.m.
• 33:06
  Speaker 1: Central on the ACC Network. Cardinals favored by 5.5. Total
• 33:10
  Speaker 1: is 58.5 on this. Now the spread opened at 7.5.
• 33:13
  Speaker 1: It's come down two full points. That total went up
• 33:17
  Speaker 1: to 60.5 Sunday. It is back down to 58.5. Louisville
• 33:21
  Speaker 1: blew on to Wake Forest last week, 30-27 as a
• 33:24
  Speaker 1: double-digit favorite. NC State beat App State 41-31. They did
• 33:28
  Speaker 1: not cover. The last meeting between these two was in 2023.
• 33:32
  Speaker 1: That was a 13-10 Louisville win. Model check on this.
• 33:36
  Speaker 1: Power rating has Louisville by 5.2. The stat model has
• 33:40
  Speaker 1: Louisville by 5.5. The stats total, 60.8. I mean, the
• 33:47
  Speaker 1: market moved right on to my number, and the stats...
• 33:51
  Speaker 1: The stats total is now two points over. That's not
• 33:54
  Speaker 1: a bad thing because it means the trends and the
• 33:56
  Speaker 1: matchup decide it. The trend here, Dave Doran as a
• 34:00
  Speaker 1: home dog, 8-2 against the spread since 2021. That's exactly
• 34:04
  Speaker 1: 10 games, so that fits my trends. NC State, 30-7
• 34:08
  Speaker 1: straight up at home over that stretch. Carter Finley, there's
• 34:12
  Speaker 1: some real juju going on there. Louisville's passing game, as
• 34:17
  Speaker 1: far as some of these stat gaps that we're trying
• 34:19
  Speaker 1: to find here, Louisville's passing game, 10.2 yards per attempt.
• 34:23
  Speaker 1: They're top 20 in QBR. Go down here to find it.
• 34:26
  Speaker 1: Here we go. Number 19 in QBR, 16th in explosiveness.
• 34:31
  Speaker 1: They're going against an NC State pass defense that is
• 34:35
  Speaker 1: number 107 in PBA allowed per pass. Louisville does not
• 34:39
  Speaker 1: turn it over. They're number two in the country in
• 34:42
  Speaker 1: giveaways per game. They're second in FBS. But the Cardinals
• 34:48
  Speaker 1: flagged themselves to death. Nine penalties, 93 yards a game.
• 34:51
  Speaker 1: Like 135th as far as penalty yards per game. NC
• 34:55
  Speaker 1: State converts on third down. That's something to pay attention to.
• 34:59
  Speaker 1: They are number 11 in third down conversion percentage. Their
• 35:02
  Speaker 1: second half margin is minus 10.3. So they're number 119
• 35:05
  Speaker 1: in second half margin. A lot of that thing had
• 35:09
  Speaker 1: to do with the Virginia game. But not even that wouldn't. No,
• 35:14
  Speaker 1: Vanderbilt game. Vanderbilt game, warm down. Injuries in this one,
• 35:18
  Speaker 1: Louisville down their cornerback Watts. He's got a knee injury.
• 35:22
  Speaker 1: NC State wide receiver Dozier only played two snaps last week.
• 35:25
  Speaker 1: Weather is 76 degrees, 32% rain chance on this one.
• 35:32
  Speaker 1: This is just an intriguing spot. NC State 1-3 against
• 35:35
  Speaker 1: the spread. Louisville is 3-1 against the spread. Everybody has
• 35:38
  Speaker 1: hopped off of the Louisville train because of, of course,
• 35:43
  Speaker 1: the Wake Forest game. They beat SMU, they look pretty
• 35:46
  Speaker 1: good against Ole Miss, and then they come back home
• 35:49
  Speaker 1: and they do what they typically do. They lose to
• 35:51
  Speaker 1: a team that they're not supposed to lose to. NC State,
• 35:56
  Speaker 1: I think, is bad. I think they're not very good.
• 36:01
  Speaker 1: I think this Louisville defense can be okay, especially against
• 36:07
  Speaker 1: a team like NC State, who is... Mediocre at best
• 36:11
  Speaker 1: on offense, number 59 in PPA per drive on offense.
• 36:16
  Speaker 1: Louisville is number 90 in PPA allowed per drive, but again,
• 36:19
  Speaker 1: they've played SMU and Ole Miss, and Wake Forest did
• 36:23
  Speaker 1: a lot of whatever they wanted to, and Robby Zell,
• 36:25
  Speaker 1: the offense coordinator there, doing wonderful things. Talent gap certainly
• 36:30
  Speaker 1: goes towards Louisville, number 27. NC State, number 43. You
• 36:35
  Speaker 1: start looking at position units, Louisville is dramatically better at
• 36:40
  Speaker 1: all of them. I'm not going to think too much
• 36:44
  Speaker 1: on this. The model is kind of right there on it.
• 36:48
  Speaker 1: I'm going to take Louisville on the road minus 5.5.
• 36:55
  Speaker 1: Trends would certainly favor Dave Doran. I just think this
• 37:00
  Speaker 1: is a bounce-back spot. If you wanted to be able
• 37:01
  Speaker 1: to catch Louisville, you should have had them win last week.
• 37:06
  Speaker 1: But the fact that they're coming off of a loss...
• 37:08
  Speaker 1: I think they'll handle business. NC State, I don't think
• 37:12
  Speaker 1: it's very good. I will take the Cardinals, minus the
• 37:17
  Speaker 1: five and a half on the road. Game number 19,
• 37:20
  Speaker 1: we're going to Ames, West Virginia at Iowa State. This one,
• 37:24
  Speaker 1: 11 a.m. Central, God's time zone on TNT and TruTV.
• 37:28
  Speaker 1: Cyclones favored by three now. Total is 52 and a
• 37:31
  Speaker 1: half on this. Spread went from one and a half
• 37:35
  Speaker 1: up to three. Both teams are licking wounds after last week,
• 37:37
  Speaker 1: West Virginia got run off their own field by Oklahoma
• 37:39
  Speaker 1: state last week, 41 to 24 in that one. Uh,
• 37:43
  Speaker 1: Iowa state lost 31 to 17 to Utah at home.
• 37:46
  Speaker 1: The last meeting between these two was, uh, in Iowa
• 37:50
  Speaker 1: state win 28 to 16 in Morgantown back in 2024.
• 37:53
  Speaker 1: The power rating has Iowa state by 3.3, like dead
• 37:59
  Speaker 1: on the number. Uh, the stats total is 46 on this.
• 38:03
  Speaker 1: So that is, uh, about six points under the market. Um,
• 38:09
  Speaker 1: the stats model has Iowa state favored by one in
• 38:13
  Speaker 1: this very interesting trends are kind of a fist fight
• 38:19
  Speaker 1: on the total. Iowa state with a total between 50
• 38:21
  Speaker 1: and 54 and a half, four and 11 to the over.
• 38:25
  Speaker 1: So a lot of unders there, Iowa state at home,
• 38:27
  Speaker 1: 13 and 22 to the under, um, Rich Rod with
• 38:32
  Speaker 1: a total under 53.5, 11-3 to the over. Rich Rod
• 38:39
  Speaker 1: is 9-2 against the spread in October in his last 11.
• 38:42
  Speaker 1: Like since 2024, he's been doing pretty good in October. Granted,
• 38:47
  Speaker 1: a lot of that, I say a lot of that,
• 38:49
  Speaker 1: some of that was at Jacksonville State, but still. West
• 38:52
  Speaker 1: Virginia runs at 74% of the time. When they throw,
• 38:56
  Speaker 1: West Virginia has the number one passing explosiveness in the country. Now, granted,
• 39:01
  Speaker 1: they only throw it less than a quarter of the time.
• 39:05
  Speaker 1: On the other side, West Virginia's pass defense, number 131
• 39:08
  Speaker 1: in passing success rate. But Iowa State's offense is number
• 39:13
  Speaker 1: 119 in success rate overall, number 98 in passing success.
• 39:19
  Speaker 1: They're 123rd on third down conversion percentage. So that ain't good.
• 39:24
  Speaker 1: They're 131st in plays per game. So they're number 116
• 39:28
  Speaker 1: in passers. pace West Virginia likes to go fast they
• 39:32
  Speaker 1: probably can't take advantage in this one Iowa State's defense
• 39:38
  Speaker 1: is number 6 in explosives allowed number 1 in red
• 39:41
  Speaker 1: zone trips allowed you start looking at the halves who
• 39:45
  Speaker 1: gets the faster start etc West Virginia way faster start
• 39:48
  Speaker 1: but the second half Iowa State much better there. So
• 39:53
  Speaker 1: this certainly would look like a West Virginia first half play.
• 39:57
  Speaker 1: Maybe Iowa State full game. Either way. Sneaky as far
• 40:01
  Speaker 1: as the injuries are concerned. West Virginia's got three running
• 40:04
  Speaker 1: backs that are questionable. Talley with a hamstring. Devine and
• 40:08
  Speaker 1: Boswell are questionable as well. For a team that runs
• 40:12
  Speaker 1: at 74% of the time, that could certainly be a problem.
• 40:15
  Speaker 1: I think that's why this number keeps moving. Iowa State
• 40:18
  Speaker 1: is down their cornerback Singletary. Weather's going to be 56
• 40:21
  Speaker 1: degrees and calm for this one. I think the running
• 40:25
  Speaker 1: back situation is interesting for West Virginia. I'm not going
• 40:29
  Speaker 1: to read too much into the trends for Rich Rod
• 40:32
  Speaker 1: as far as the overs, etc. I'm going to go
• 40:37
  Speaker 1: with the power rating on this one. Model, like I said,
• 40:41
  Speaker 1: only has, like the stats model, has Iowa State minus 1.06.
• 40:46
  Speaker 1: Power rating has Iowa State minus 3.3. While this thing
• 40:49
  Speaker 1: is still sitting at three, for show purposes, I will
• 40:53
  Speaker 1: take Iowa State to win and cover that number at home.
• 40:58
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of market love for Jimmy Rogers' team.
• 41:00
  Speaker 1: I think that he would rather be in a position
• 41:04
  Speaker 1: of covering as a dog, but I trust Iowa State here.
• 41:11
  Speaker 1: I think they can slow down the run enough, especially
• 41:14
  Speaker 1: with all these injuries that West Virginia's got. Curious to
• 41:19
  Speaker 1: see how they come out after just getting demolished. Gave
• 41:22
  Speaker 1: up 600-plus yards to Oklahoma State last week. But, yeah,
• 41:26
  Speaker 1: I'll take Iowa State, minus 3. Game number 20, we
• 41:29
  Speaker 1: got Kentucky going to South Carolina, 3.15 p.m. Central Time,
• 41:33
  Speaker 1: God's time zone on the SEC Network. Gamecocks favored by 2.5 here.
• 41:39
  Speaker 1: Total is 53.5. This line opened South Carolina minus 7.
• 41:45
  Speaker 1: It is now 2.5. That is four and a half
• 41:49
  Speaker 1: points of Kentucky money. It is still moving. Total went
• 41:53
  Speaker 1: up four on this, and I think a lot of
• 41:56
  Speaker 1: that has to do with the fact that South Carolina's
• 41:58
  Speaker 1: defense has just not been good. There's also, you know,
• 42:02
  Speaker 1: we talk about somebody knows something, or at least they
• 42:05
  Speaker 1: think they do, whatever, but I think a lot of
• 42:07
  Speaker 1: this has to do with Dylan Stewart being suspended indefinitely.
• 42:13
  Speaker 1: for this. First report I heard said that he had
• 42:15
  Speaker 1: been dismissed from the team, but I don't think you
• 42:17
  Speaker 1: pay that much money to somebody to just kick them
• 42:18
  Speaker 1: off the team. Either way, year one for Will Stein
• 42:21
  Speaker 1: and Lexington. The Cats are ranked number 24 this week.
• 42:24
  Speaker 1: South Carolina just got worked last week, 49-18 at Alabama.
• 42:30
  Speaker 1: Last year, Carolina won this game 35-13. Power rating says
• 42:35
  Speaker 1: South Carolina by 0.7. The stat model has Kentucky by. 05.
• 42:43
  Speaker 1: basically a pick-em. So the model agrees with the move,
• 42:46
  Speaker 1: but the value has mostly been taken out of this one.
• 42:51
  Speaker 1: The trend here, or trends, I guess, Shane Beamer off
• 42:56
  Speaker 1: of a straight-up loss is 18-9 against the spread. Off
• 42:59
  Speaker 1: a spread loss, he is 17-9. Now, Beamer's teams tend
• 43:03
  Speaker 1: to bounce back. As far as stat gaps go, South
• 43:08
  Speaker 1: Carolina's pass defense is just broken. I mean, you look
• 43:11
  Speaker 1: at this. Kenny Minchie could have a field day here.
• 43:14
  Speaker 1: They're number 134 in PPA allowed per pass. They've got
• 43:17
  Speaker 1: a bunch of 220-pound safeties. Cornerbacks aren't very fast. They're
• 43:25
  Speaker 1: number 130 in explosiveness allowed, and Kentucky is number 24
• 43:30
  Speaker 1: in passing explosiveness. Kentucky ranks 13th in offensive success rate,
• 43:35
  Speaker 1: 8th in rushing success. South Carolina can stop the run easily.
• 43:42
  Speaker 1: Turnover margin, we start looking at that. South Carolina, number 119.
• 43:47
  Speaker 1: They're minus one. Kentucky is plus 0.75, so they're number 30.
• 43:56
  Speaker 1: In this one, Kentucky, they can take the ball away
• 43:59
  Speaker 1: from you. Carolina can run the ball, and that's interesting.
• 44:06
  Speaker 1: They're 6.6 yards a carry. That's good for fourth in
• 44:08
  Speaker 1: the country, so that's certainly something to pay attention to.
• 44:14
  Speaker 1: Kentucky is number 88 in rushing success allowed. And this
• 44:25
  Speaker 1: is something I'm very intrigued by. Kentucky is dead last
• 44:29
  Speaker 1: in the country in third down conversion percentage. Number 138, 23%. Now,
• 44:32
  Speaker 1: South Carolina's defense isn't great, but 37.25% allowed, 75th. in
• 44:42
  Speaker 1: the country. Very interesting. Very interesting. Stewart's out for South Carolina.
• 44:50
  Speaker 1: The defensive lineman, Brown-Lodindi, and the offensive guard, Peek, are questionable.
• 44:55
  Speaker 1: Kentucky is down there tight end. Watkins and the running back, Mizell.
• 45:00
  Speaker 1: Weather's going to be 82 degrees. About a 50% chance
• 45:04
  Speaker 1: of rain on this one. I think the passing explosiveness
• 45:08
  Speaker 1: is going to be the biggest difference in this game.
• 45:12
  Speaker 1: Number 24 for Kentucky. South Carolina's defense number 130. And
• 45:18
  Speaker 1: I don't know that I trust this South Carolina offense
• 45:21
  Speaker 1: to be able to keep up with them. If Kentucky
• 45:23
  Speaker 1: cannot hit the explosive play, then they're going to be
• 45:27
  Speaker 1: in a lot of trouble. But I'm going to keep
• 45:31
  Speaker 1: rolling with the market here. I mean, this is wild.
• 45:35
  Speaker 1: It's basically a pick-em on the stats model. The power
• 45:39
  Speaker 1: rating has South Carolina by half a point. I'm going
• 45:44
  Speaker 1: to side with the models. I will take Kentucky plus
• 45:46
  Speaker 1: the two and a half on the road. I think
• 45:48
  Speaker 1: they can win this game outright. I think South Carolina
• 45:50
  Speaker 1: is in a lot of trouble because they, I don't
• 45:53
  Speaker 1: think they've got enough time to be able to get
• 45:56
  Speaker 1: the secondary fixed. So give me Kentucky plus two and
• 45:59
  Speaker 1: a half on the road. Are you tired of sore
• 46:03
  Speaker 1: knees or joints slowing you down? Ghost Leaves uses built-in
• 46:07
  Speaker 1: kinesiology tape technology to give you support, reduce pain, and
• 46:11
  Speaker 1: help you recover faster. Use code WCE for 15% off
• 46:15
  Speaker 1: over at ghostleaves.com. If you can't watch the show live,
• 46:20
  Speaker 1: no problem. Subscribe to the Winning Cures Everything audio podcast
• 46:24
  Speaker 1: and never miss an episode. Of course, make sure that
• 46:26
  Speaker 1: you leave a five-star review. And don't forget, it's available
• 46:30
  Speaker 1: everywhere you get podcasts. Game number 21, Notre Dame is
• 46:35
  Speaker 1: heading to Chapel Hill to take on North Carolina and
• 46:38
  Speaker 1: Bill Belichick. It's 11 a.m. Central Time on ESPN. Feel
• 46:42
  Speaker 1: like a lot of early games this week. Irish are
• 46:44
  Speaker 1: laying 21. The total is 47.5, so that total has
• 46:47
  Speaker 1: gone down some. It opened at 55.5, right? I mean,
• 46:53
  Speaker 1: it's down eight points. Biggest total move on this card.
• 46:55
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame is 4-0. They're ranked number three. They just
• 46:58
  Speaker 1: dropped 49 on Purdue. Now, the stat sheet would tell
• 47:01
  Speaker 1: you that they probably shouldn't have scored that many, but
• 47:05
  Speaker 1: even still. Belichick's Tar Heels, they were off of a bye.
• 47:09
  Speaker 1: Their second bye in three weeks. after they lost to Clemson.
• 47:13
  Speaker 1: Probably should have won that one. These two last played
• 47:15
  Speaker 1: in 2021. That was a 44-34 Irish win. Power rating
• 47:18
  Speaker 1: has Notre Dame by 23.2. The stats model has Notre
• 47:21
  Speaker 1: Dame by 26.42. Both models lay it. The stats total
• 47:25
  Speaker 1: is 6 over the market at 53.5-ish. Let's talk about
• 47:27
  Speaker 1: some trends. Notre Dame 22-8 against the spread against the
• 47:42
  Speaker 1: ACC since 2021. And I love this one. Notre Dame
• 47:46
  Speaker 1: with a total under 48.5, 26-1 to the over. Marcus
• 47:49
  Speaker 1: Freeman with a total of 45-49.5, 15-4 to the over.
• 47:51
  Speaker 1: North Carolina at home since 2024, 2-11-1 against the spread.
• 48:08
  Speaker 1: There's a lot of stat gaps in this one, too,
• 48:09
  Speaker 1: by the way. Notre Dame's defense, third in the country
• 48:13
  Speaker 1: in PPA allowed per drive. They allow 1.75 yards per
• 48:17
  Speaker 1: carry against the run. They're second in explosives allowed. So
• 48:25
  Speaker 1: if you start looking at net explosiveness, they do not
• 48:28
  Speaker 1: allow chunk plays at all. Notre Dame's offense, third in
• 48:32
  Speaker 1: net points per drive with a first half margin of
• 48:36
  Speaker 1: plus 21.8. So, Notre Dame comes out of the gate hot,
• 48:41
  Speaker 1: and they also lay it on in the second half. So,
• 48:45
  Speaker 1: they commit the fewest penalties in the country. They're number
• 48:47
  Speaker 1: one in penalties per game and penalty yards per game.
• 48:52
  Speaker 1: North Carolina scores touchdowns on only 54.6% of their red
• 48:56
  Speaker 1: zone trips. Well, it's going to be even less than
• 48:59
  Speaker 1: that against Notre Dame, because Notre Dame allows only 20%
• 49:03
  Speaker 1: of their red zone trips to end in touchdowns. So, um,
• 49:10
  Speaker 1: Skill players against the opponent's back seven. Notre Dame is
• 49:14
  Speaker 1: number one in the back seven. North Carolina number one.
• 49:20
  Speaker 1: 62 as far as skill talent. Now, injuries. Notre Dame's
• 49:25
  Speaker 1: wide receiver Porter out with a knee injury. North Carolina
• 49:29
  Speaker 1: has seven guys out. That includes their kicker, Verhoff, and
• 49:33
  Speaker 1: three receivers. In this one, 73 degrees, 32% chance of rain.
• 49:39
  Speaker 1: I wouldn't expect weather to have much of an impact
• 49:42
  Speaker 1: in this one. I'm going to side with the models
• 49:48
  Speaker 1: on this. This thing is 21 now, so there was
• 49:51
  Speaker 1: a little bit of North Carolina love in the market.
• 49:54
  Speaker 1: People think this is going to look somewhat like an
• 49:56
  Speaker 1: NFL game. I'm not buying it. That North Carolina defense, yeah,
• 50:01
  Speaker 1: has looked pretty good. Number 32 in PPA allowed per drive,
• 50:04
  Speaker 1: 32 per play. But they're number 61 in success rate allowed,
• 50:08
  Speaker 1: number 82 in rushing success allowed. And Notre Dame, they're
• 50:14
  Speaker 1: not like the best team as far as passing the ball.
• 50:19
  Speaker 1: But running it, they're number 9 in success rate. They're
• 50:22
  Speaker 1: not explosive, number 125 there. But number 29 in stuff rate,
• 50:28
  Speaker 1: number 77 in offensive line yards, number 38 in PPA
• 50:32
  Speaker 1: per rush, like when they have to have it. They
• 50:35
  Speaker 1: do a pretty good job. I think they are explosive
• 50:39
  Speaker 1: enough here, and I think that defense may not give
• 50:44
  Speaker 1: up anything to Bobby Petrino and company. I'd say not anything.
• 50:49
  Speaker 1: 14 points, something like that. But if Notre Dame is
• 50:51
  Speaker 1: favored by 21, 42 to 17 gets a cover, something
• 50:56
  Speaker 1: like that. It's about what I would expect here. I
• 50:59
  Speaker 1: think Notre Dame is really, really good. Give me the Irish,
• 51:03
  Speaker 1: minus 21 on the road in Chapel Hill. I think
• 51:07
  Speaker 1: they will get up for this one. So give me
• 51:11
  Speaker 1: Notre Dame. I will side with the models. Game number 22,
• 51:16
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech at Colorado. This is prime time in Boulder,
• 51:19
  Speaker 1: which is perfect for prime time neon-deon, I suppose. 6.30 p.m.
• 51:23
  Speaker 1: Central Time on Fox. Red Raiders land 13.5 on this.
• 51:26
  Speaker 1: The total is 50.5. A point came off from 14.5
• 51:31
  Speaker 1: down to 13.5. Tech is 4-0. They're ranked number 12.
• 51:36
  Speaker 1: They just beat Sam Houston State 49-14. They are only
• 51:38
  Speaker 1: 1-3 against the number this year. Colorado lost 23-13 at Baylor.
• 51:44
  Speaker 1: The last time these two met, Coach Prime went into Lubbock.
• 51:47
  Speaker 1: He won the game 41-27. That was back in 2024.
• 51:50
  Speaker 1: That was before Texas Tech started spending all this Cody
• 51:54
  Speaker 1: Campbell money. Right? Power rating has Tech by 14.3. The
• 52:00
  Speaker 1: stats model has Tech by 15.8. Both models right around
• 52:04
  Speaker 1: the number. Both of them lean Tech. As far as
• 52:08
  Speaker 1: trends go, Texas Tech 15-4-1 against the spread, against Big
• 52:13
  Speaker 1: 12 teams since 2024. Colorado as an underdog, 8-38 straight
• 52:20
  Speaker 1: up since 2021. So I don't anticipate Colorado actually winning
• 52:23
  Speaker 1: this game. The question is whether or not they can
• 52:25
  Speaker 1: stay within 13.5. Texas Tech's defensive line ranks number one
• 52:30
  Speaker 1: in my roster matchup against the Colorado offensive line that
• 52:32
  Speaker 1: ranks 62nd, as you can see below. I don't know
• 52:39
  Speaker 1: that I would still have Texas Tech's defensive line there,
• 52:41
  Speaker 1: but either way, Colorado allows havoc on 18.4% of snaps.
• 52:44
  Speaker 1: That is 126th. Where are we? Yeah, 126th. Texas Tech
• 52:47
  Speaker 1: is number 36 in that. As far as the other
• 52:58
  Speaker 1: side of the ball, Colorado gives up a lot of explosives.
• 53:04
  Speaker 1: Number 127, as far as passing explosiveness allowed. But they're
• 53:10
  Speaker 1: number 21 in havoc rate created. And Texas Tech is
• 53:13
  Speaker 1: number 118 in havoc allowed. So, curious how that's going
• 53:18
  Speaker 1: to play out in a game like this. Colorado can't
• 53:22
  Speaker 1: stop going. getting themselves flagged. They're number 129 in penalties
• 53:26
  Speaker 1: per game, number 129 in penalty yards per game. Number
• 53:29
  Speaker 1: 130 in red zone scoring percentage. 62.5%. I mean, that's just,
• 53:37
  Speaker 1: that's atrocious. They're number 130 in special teams. Texas Tech
• 53:41
  Speaker 1: is number 29 in special teams efficiency. So how does
• 53:44
  Speaker 1: Colorado cover here? You'd have to have Texas Tech turn
• 53:48
  Speaker 1: it over. Like they're giving away the ball twice a game.
• 53:54
  Speaker 1: They're number 120 in giveaways per game. But Colorado's number
• 53:59
  Speaker 1: 106 in giveaways per game. I feel like that's the
• 54:04
  Speaker 1: only door that Colorado has is that Texas Tech number
• 54:10
  Speaker 1: 132 in interceptions per pass attempt. Colorado, they're minus 10
• 54:17
  Speaker 1: in the first half. Tech is around plus 12 in
• 54:21
  Speaker 1: the second half. So Colorado has been just kind of
• 54:25
  Speaker 1: abysmal overall. Now granted, they've played a difficult schedule compared
• 54:29
  Speaker 1: to Texas Tech. Very, very difficult. Uh, so that could
• 54:33
  Speaker 1: have something to do with it. Injuries, Tex linebacker, uh,
• 54:36
  Speaker 1: white questionable with a knee. The cornerback Boyd is also questionable.
• 54:39
  Speaker 1: Colorado was down there tight end Atkins, uh, wide receivers
• 54:42
  Speaker 1: more and Scudero are questionable. Weather's going to be calm.
• 54:45
  Speaker 1: 72 degrees. Perfect day. Perfect day in Boulder. Um, Primetime
• 54:52
  Speaker 1: Neon Dion in a primetime spot. I ain't buying it.
• 54:55
  Speaker 1: I think this Tech roster is still really good. They're
• 54:58
  Speaker 1: number 17 in overall talent rank. Colorado's number 54. I
• 55:03
  Speaker 1: think that Tech opens it up a little bit here.
• 55:07
  Speaker 1: The fact that this has gotten down to 13.5 blows
• 55:09
  Speaker 1: my mind. I will side with the power rating. I
• 55:12
  Speaker 1: will side with the model. Again, power rating, Texas Tech
• 55:14
  Speaker 1: minus 14.3. Stats model, Tech minus 15.77. I will take
• 55:19
  Speaker 1: Texas Tech minus 13.5 to cover this one on the
• 55:22
  Speaker 1: road in a primetime spot. Game 23, we got Purdue
• 55:26
  Speaker 1: at Illinois, 3.15 p.m. Central God's Time Zone on the
• 55:29
  Speaker 1: Big Ten Network. Illini favored by 10 right now, total
• 55:32
  Speaker 1: is 61.5, so that has come up. It's up half
• 55:37
  Speaker 1: a point on the spread, and it's up a full
• 55:40
  Speaker 1: point on the total since Sunday. Two whole points because
• 55:45
  Speaker 1: I had it at 59.5 when I made the sheet.
• 55:49
  Speaker 1: Pretty crazy. Both teams coming off butt whoopings. Purdue lost
• 55:52
  Speaker 1: 49-10 to Notre Dame last week. Illinois lost 42-19 at
• 55:57
  Speaker 1: Ohio State. Difference is Illinois covered 25.5. Last year, Illinois
• 56:02
  Speaker 1: went into West Lafayette. They won the game 43-27 there.
• 56:04
  Speaker 1: Power rating has Illinois favored by 10.4, so it's pretty close.
• 56:11
  Speaker 1: Stats say Illinois minus 12. The stats total is 53.5-ish.
• 56:18
  Speaker 1: That's eight points under the market. And I see where
• 56:24
  Speaker 1: they're coming from because both of these offenses are good
• 56:26
  Speaker 1: and the defenses are bad. Pace of play is pretty average.
• 56:31
  Speaker 1: Number 64 for Purdue, number 66 for Illinois. Purdue as
• 56:38
  Speaker 1: an underdog since 2024, 0-22 straight up. They are 0-19
• 56:45
  Speaker 1: in Big Ten play. Off of a straight-up loss, they
• 56:48
  Speaker 1: are 5-15-1 against the spread. Bielema, 29-1 against the spread
• 56:55
  Speaker 1: since 2024, but he's 2-8 against the spread at home
• 57:00
  Speaker 1: in October since 2021, so even Bielema has kryptonite. Looking
• 57:05
  Speaker 1: at some of these stat gaps, Purdue's defense is dead last,
• 57:08
  Speaker 1: number 138 in defensive PBA allowed per drive. Racing success allowed,
• 57:14
  Speaker 1: et cetera. Now, they have played the number four current
• 57:16
  Speaker 1: strength of schedule, but they're number 137 in explosives allowed,
• 57:22
  Speaker 1: et cetera. Illinois' defense is number 134 per drive, PPA
• 57:28
  Speaker 1: allowed per drive. Market already priced in all that carnage
• 57:31
  Speaker 1: at 61.5. It's still climbing. Purdue is minus 15 in
• 57:36
  Speaker 1: first halves. Let's see. Yep, there we go, number 126.
• 57:45
  Speaker 1: Illinois is not that much better. Minus 2.4 in the
• 57:48
  Speaker 1: first half, minus 0.3 in the second. So not a
• 57:51
  Speaker 1: lot to take away from that. Let's see. I'm recording
• 57:59
  Speaker 1: this at like 1230, midnight 30. So if you see
• 58:03
  Speaker 1: me yawning, that's why, because I'm currently dying. I'm not
• 58:09
  Speaker 1: actually dying, but trying to stay up and get all
• 58:12
  Speaker 1: this stuff done. It wears me out. I have an eight-year-old.
• 58:17
  Speaker 1: He plays soccer. He's also in Cub Scouts. And then
• 58:21
  Speaker 1: the three-year-old girl has made him neither here nor there.
• 58:25
  Speaker 1: Back to the game. Both teams get about half of
• 58:28
  Speaker 1: a takeaway per game-ish. Special teams are a wash. Number
• 58:34
  Speaker 1: seven and number eight. As far as injuries go, Illinois
• 58:39
  Speaker 1: has 13 names on the report. The ones that matter,
• 58:42
  Speaker 1: probably the running back Forster with a knee. Wide receiver Eberhardt.
• 58:47
  Speaker 1: Running back Clement, all questionable. Purdue is down two tight
• 58:50
  Speaker 1: ends in this spot. Weather, light wind in Champaign, 67 degrees.
• 58:56
  Speaker 1: If the wind picks up a little bit, you can
• 58:58
  Speaker 1: maybe see that number start to go back down under.
• 59:03
  Speaker 1: But even still, I trust Bielema here. I Both of
• 59:10
  Speaker 1: these want to get a good appearance. But as far
• 59:17
  Speaker 1: as the offenses go, I will trust Illinois. They are
• 59:21
  Speaker 1: better on a down-to-down basis. They are not quite as
• 59:25
  Speaker 1: explosive as Purdue. Actually, no, they're significantly more explosive. I
• 59:31
  Speaker 1: think they can hit some plays. I like Caden Houser.
• 59:33
  Speaker 1: I like what he's doing. I'll trust the stats model
• 59:37
  Speaker 1: and the power rating since this thing is sitting at 10.
• 59:41
  Speaker 1: But I will take Illinois minus 10 to cover this
• 59:44
  Speaker 1: game at home. Game 24, Cal at UNLV. This one's
• 59:48
  Speaker 1: at Allegiant Stadium in Vegas. So it's a dome. We
• 59:52
  Speaker 1: don't have to worry about weather here. It's 2.30 p.m.
• 59:54
  Speaker 1: Central Time, God's Time Zone on CBS Sports Network. Rebels
• 59:57
  Speaker 1: favored by 2.5 over the ACC Bruins. The Bears, excuse me.
• 1:00:04
  Speaker 1: Total is 53.5 on this. Cal lost 24-10 to Clemson
• 1:00:09
  Speaker 1: at home last Friday. UNLV went up to Akron in
• 1:00:13
  Speaker 1: an early game and won 38-10. Looked a lot better
• 1:00:17
  Speaker 1: in the second half than the first. These two met
• 1:00:19
  Speaker 1: in the 2024 LA Bowl and UNLV won that game 24-13. So,
• 1:00:21
  Speaker 1: biggest model gap on the entire next 15 and it's
• 1:00:31
  Speaker 1: on the total, right? My stats projection has this game
• 1:00:34
  Speaker 1: at 41.9. The market says 53 and a half. That's
• 1:00:39
  Speaker 1: 11 and a half points on the side. Both models
• 1:00:42
  Speaker 1: flip the favorite, right? Power rating says Cal by two stats,
• 1:00:46
  Speaker 1: say Cal by almost a point. The trends back the
• 1:00:50
  Speaker 1: under here, Cal since 2024, nine 19 and two to
• 1:00:52
  Speaker 1: the under, um, Yeah. In non-conference games, they are 2-9-1.
• 1:01:01
  Speaker 1: On the other side, UNLV off an ATS cover, 25-14
• 1:01:05
  Speaker 1: against the spread. Cal as an underdog is 9-29 straight up.
• 1:01:16
  Speaker 1: Biggest stat gap that I've seen is that UNLV cannot
• 1:01:19
  Speaker 1: finish drives. They're number 136 in... Red zone conversion percentage.
• 1:01:29
  Speaker 1: Number 127 in red zone touchdown rate. A 22% passing
• 1:01:34
  Speaker 1: success rate. Like, I'm so curious about this. They're number
• 1:01:43
  Speaker 1: 123 in points per scoring opportunity. Cal's defense is number 25.
• 1:01:48
  Speaker 1: On the other side, Cal number 127 in points per
• 1:01:51
  Speaker 1: scoring opportunity. UNLV is number 77. Like, Cal's pass defense
• 1:01:59
  Speaker 1: is pretty good. But UNLV will probably just run the
• 1:02:05
  Speaker 1: ball more. And Cal can't stop the run. So, the
• 1:02:10
  Speaker 1: Cal offense is awful. Just awful. Like, UNLV's back against
• 1:02:17
  Speaker 1: Cal's linebackers. UNLV's running backs I've got is the number
• 1:02:25
  Speaker 1: five unit in the country. Cal, their linebacker's number 100.
• 1:02:30
  Speaker 1: I mean, that's outlandish. But UNLV's defensive line is pretty
• 1:02:39
  Speaker 1: awful as well. It's just that Cal doesn't really have
• 1:02:41
  Speaker 1: running backs. They're running back Vargas out with a leg injury.
• 1:02:45
  Speaker 1: They've got a tight end and two wide receivers that
• 1:02:47
  Speaker 1: are questionable. UNLV's got two wide receivers that are questionable
• 1:02:49
  Speaker 1: as well. The stats model has Cal by. 8. The
• 1:02:54
  Speaker 1: power rating has Cal minus 2. Can you trust this
• 1:02:59
  Speaker 1: offense for Cal? They have looked atrocious. And granted, number
• 1:03:08
  Speaker 1: 25 current strength of schedule based on Sagarin, UNLV number 94,
• 1:03:13
  Speaker 1: but there's nothing that I have seen that could make
• 1:03:19
  Speaker 1: me want to bet Cal right now. It's like this
• 1:03:22
  Speaker 1: team is broken. Um, Yeah, I'm not going to overthink this.
• 1:03:28
  Speaker 1: I'm not going to bet on this one. God bless
• 1:03:33
  Speaker 1: you if you do. I'm going to go with the
• 1:03:36
  Speaker 1: favorite at home. UNLV minus two and a half. It's
• 1:03:40
  Speaker 1: less than a field goal. Dan Mullen likes to get
• 1:03:43
  Speaker 1: up in these spots. I think they will have something
• 1:03:47
  Speaker 1: cooked up. Just a guess. But give me UNLV minus
• 1:03:52
  Speaker 1: two and a half. Last game of the show. Oregon
• 1:03:57
  Speaker 1: State heads to Colorado State. This is a Pac-12 game. Yeah,
• 1:04:04
  Speaker 1: we can say that now. That's a real thing. All right,
• 1:04:08
  Speaker 1: 5 o'clock Central on USA Network. Beavers favored by 6 here.
• 1:04:13
  Speaker 1: Total is 61.5. It has come up. The spread has
• 1:04:18
  Speaker 1: moved from 3.5 all the way to 6 on the Beavers.
• 1:04:22
  Speaker 1: That has everything to do with the fact that Colorado
• 1:04:24
  Speaker 1: State's quarterback looks like he's going to be out It's
• 1:04:27
  Speaker 1: year one for Jamarcus Shepard at Oregon State. They're 4-0
• 1:04:29
  Speaker 1: against the number. They just beat UTEP 33-7 last week.
• 1:04:33
  Speaker 1: Didn't cover the team total for me, but alas, it
• 1:04:36
  Speaker 1: is what it is. It's year one for Jim Mora
• 1:04:38
  Speaker 1: at Colorado State. They lost 59-45 at UTSA, but they
• 1:04:42
  Speaker 1: still cover 14.5. The last time these two met, Oregon
• 1:04:46
  Speaker 1: State won 39-31 in double overtime back in 2024. The
• 1:04:50
  Speaker 1: power rating has Oregon State by 3.9. The stats model
• 1:04:55
  Speaker 1: has Oregon State minus 3.27. So both models now 2-3
• 1:04:59
  Speaker 1: points on the Ram side in this one. The stats
• 1:05:01
  Speaker 1: total is 53.9. That's 7.5 under the market. Trends are
• 1:05:07
  Speaker 1: colliding as far as the total goes, right? Jim Moore's
• 1:05:10
  Speaker 1: team since 2024, they are 19-8-2 to the over. That's
• 1:05:15
  Speaker 1: all mostly at UConn. But Oregon State on the road,
• 1:05:18
  Speaker 1: 2-9-1 to the under. Mora at home, 19-8-1 against the
• 1:05:23
  Speaker 1: spread since 2021. Colorado State in conference play, 4-11-1. Now,
• 1:05:31
  Speaker 1: this is a different Colorado State team now that Mora's there,
• 1:05:33
  Speaker 1: but still, as far as stat gaps go, Colorado State's defense,
• 1:05:37
  Speaker 1: dead last in FBS and explosives allowed. I mean, that
• 1:05:42
  Speaker 1: Colorado State defense just looks atrocious. Just so bad. They
• 1:05:46
  Speaker 1: give up 9.8 yards per pass attempt. They rank 128th
• 1:05:49
  Speaker 1: in success rate. Oregon State throws it 69% of the time.
• 1:05:53
  Speaker 1: That's the highest rate in the country. And that's a
• 1:05:56
  Speaker 1: bad matchup overall for the Rams. The good news is
• 1:06:01
  Speaker 1: Colorado State takes the ball away. They're number four in
• 1:06:03
  Speaker 1: the country in takeaways per game. They're second in interception rate,
• 1:06:08
  Speaker 1: if you look down here. So the issue for them
• 1:06:12
  Speaker 1: is that Oregon State doesn't really turn it over. They're
• 1:06:15
  Speaker 1: 48th in interception rate. Beaver special teams, number 136. Colorado
• 1:06:22
  Speaker 1: State number 83 there, so a little bit of an
• 1:06:24
  Speaker 1: advantage for the Rams. Colorado State minus 10 in first halves,
• 1:06:28
  Speaker 1: the number 114 there. Plus 6.6 in the second half,
• 1:06:33
  Speaker 1: so they played better in the second half than they
• 1:06:35
  Speaker 1: do in the first. Colorado State's quarterback, Hedgeny. Yeah, Hedgeny
• 1:06:41
  Speaker 1: is questionable with the hamstring. Oregon State doesn't have anybody
• 1:06:45
  Speaker 1: listed as far as injuries are concerned. The weather... 76
• 1:06:49
  Speaker 1: degrees with a north wind at 7 mph in Fort Collins.
• 1:06:54
  Speaker 1: I don't like how much this thing has moved. And
• 1:06:56
  Speaker 1: I understand that Colorado State's quarterback is out. They were
• 1:07:05
  Speaker 1: still able to put some points on the board against UTSA.
• 1:07:09
  Speaker 1: This Oregon State defense, number 77 in PBA allowed per drive.
• 1:07:17
  Speaker 1: Oregon State is number 87 in passing success allowed. Oregon
• 1:07:25
  Speaker 1: State number 64 in points allowed per scoring opportunity. You
• 1:07:35
  Speaker 1: know what? I'm going to just roll with the Beavers.
• 1:07:38
  Speaker 1: Why not? Play the hot hand. I think they're going
• 1:07:41
  Speaker 1: to score a ton of points here. I don't know
• 1:07:42
  Speaker 1: what to expect from Colorado State with the backup quarterback.
• 1:07:45
  Speaker 1: I think they're both going to score. The fact that
• 1:07:49
  Speaker 1: this thing opened without a six in front of it
• 1:07:52
  Speaker 1: for a total, kind of shocking. Even more shocking that
• 1:07:56
  Speaker 1: my stat spread has this at 53.85. But either way,
• 1:08:01
  Speaker 1: I've learned not to trust my total number on here,
• 1:08:03
  Speaker 1: my projection. But as far as the spread goes, it
• 1:08:10
  Speaker 1: is kind of interesting. But I'm going to play the
• 1:08:12
  Speaker 1: hot hand. Oregon State has been overplaying the expectations thus
• 1:08:17
  Speaker 1: far this year. I will ride with the Beavers in
• 1:08:21
  Speaker 1: Fort Collins. Give me Oregon State. Minus six to cover
• 1:08:24
  Speaker 1: on the road. All right, if you got something out
• 1:08:26
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• 1:08:28
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• 1:08:31
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• 1:08:33
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• 1:08:36
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• 1:08:40
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• 1:08:44
  Speaker 1: I offer over at buymeacoffee.com slash winningcures. Three Dog Thursday.
• 1:08:48
  Speaker 1: We'll be here on Thursday with TJ and Jason, of course,
• 1:08:51
  Speaker 1: as always. And then my Friday pod is going to
• 1:08:54
  Speaker 1: close out the week. You guys know exactly what goes
• 1:08:57
  Speaker 1: on in that one. So for now. the recap of
• 1:09:01
  Speaker 1: this and whatnot will be on Buy Me a Coffee
• 1:09:03
  Speaker 1: this week. Until that time comes. Take care of yourself.
• 1:09:09
  Speaker 1: Take care of each other. God bless college football. Hopefully
• 1:09:12
  Speaker 1: all of your tickets cash this week. Thanks for listening
• 1:09:15
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• 1:09:20
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