Latest / Simmer Down / Weather Gone Wild with Bernadette Woods Placky
Transcript
- 0:00Bernadette Woods Placky: Don't wait for someone else to do something.
- 0:03Bernadette Woods Placky: Take it upon yourself because we're gonna need to keep advancing things in this world.
- 0:06Bernadette Woods Placky: Climate, obviously, being the biggest one that we focus on, and I I do think is our biggest challenge, because a lot of our other challenges are connected to climate change.
- 0:15Bernadette Woods Placky: But there's a lot of challenges too, and we can't wait for someone else to do things.
- 0:19Bernadette Woods Placky: We need to jump in and do them ourselves, whether it's big or small.
- 0:22Bernadette Woods Placky: I mean, you don't have to start a podcast.
- 0:24Bernadette Woods Placky: You don't have to start an organization.
- 0:25Bernadette Woods Placky: There's a lot you can do and just have conversations with people about climate change.
- 0:32Kathleen Biggins: Welcome to Simmer Down, a cool-headed look at a hot topic, climate change.
- 0:38Kathleen Biggins: Climate change is impacting so many areas of our lives, but especially the kitchen table issues, the things we talk about and care about every single day.
- 0:48Kathleen Biggins: From the safety of our families to the protection of our homes and investments, to our ability to be outside to enjoy the things that we love.
- 0:57Kathleen Biggins: Because we want to delve into kitchen table issues, we're sitting down at a real kitchen table in my kitchen and talking to experts about how climate change is impacting our lives.
- 1:10Kathleen Biggins: Today we're going to focus on weather weirding.
- 1:13Kathleen Biggins: The absolutely strange weather patterns we're seeing all across the globe and reflected on our TV sets and computers every single day.
- 1:24Kathleen Biggins: The weather experiences we're seeing not just in our own neighborhoods, but really all across the globe.
- 1:30Kathleen Biggins: To unpack that, we invited a world-renowned expert, Bernadette Woods Placky.
- 1:36Kathleen Biggins: Bernadette is an Emmy-winning meteorologist and climate expert with more than 25 years of experience translating complex science into stories that move people and inspire institutions to act.
- 1:49Kathleen Biggins: She most recently served as Vice President of Engagement and Chief Meteorologist at Climate Central, where she built and led Climate Matters, an innovative climate journalism and communication program.
- 2:02Kathleen Biggins: Welcome, Bernadette.
- 2:03Kathleen Biggins: We are so thrilled to have this opportunity to speak with you.
- 2:07Bernadette Woods Placky: Well, thank you for having me today.
- 2:08Bernadette Woods Placky: It's always fun to sit down and chat climate with you.
- 2:12Kathleen Biggins: I wanted to focus in on your expertise of weather, because I think weather is really something that for many of us is hard to think about in big terms.
- 2:23Kathleen Biggins: For most of us, the weather is just what it is right now outside, right?
- 2:27Kathleen Biggins: Even packing for a different climate is hard.
- 2:30Kathleen Biggins: And yet, when we think about climate, we're talking about weather writ large.
- 2:35Kathleen Biggins: We're talking about it on a global scale.
- 2:38Kathleen Biggins: But I recently read something that kind of helped me focus on how big it is.
- 2:42Kathleen Biggins: It was a report from the World Economic Forum that said that in general, every year we spend over $143 billion on natural disasters, which translates to $16 million every single hour.
- 2:58Kathleen Biggins: That number just floored me.
- 3:01Kathleen Biggins: And it helped me realize that my own perceptions are a bit skewed by what's happening right now, right here.
- 3:07Kathleen Biggins: So can you help us understand why the weather is changing so much and how climate, which is the big picture, is different from weather?
- 3:16Bernadette Woods Placky: So I do skirt this myself, and I'll tell you why.
- 3:19Bernadette Woods Placky: But weather is what you're experiencing where you are in that moment.
- 3:24Bernadette Woods Placky: Climate is that weather over space and time.
- 3:27Bernadette Woods Placky: Your personality is the climate, your mood is the weather.
- 3:32Bernadette Woods Placky: You're gonna get shifts all the time within whatever climate you have.
- 3:37Bernadette Woods Placky: That's weather.
- 3:38Bernadette Woods Placky: It's gonna go up, it's gonna go down, it's gonna be hot, it's gonna be cold.
- 3:41Bernadette Woods Placky: Climate is that over time.
- 3:44Bernadette Woods Placky: But what we're doing now is we have fundamentally shifted our climate to the point that it has shifted our weather.
- 3:52Bernadette Woods Placky: And this is why I'm happy to answer the differences scientifically, but they are very tied at this point because our current weather has been changed because of climate change.
- 4:05Bernadette Woods Placky: But the idea, really, to summarize on the big scale is think about our globe.
- 4:11Bernadette Woods Placky: It has this thin layer around it.
- 4:13Bernadette Woods Placky: It's like a blanket.
- 4:14Bernadette Woods Placky: Those are our greenhouse gases.
- 4:16Bernadette Woods Placky: And we know what greenhouse gases are.
- 4:19Bernadette Woods Placky: They trap heat.
- 4:20Bernadette Woods Placky: This is science that goes back to the 1800s, right?
- 4:23Bernadette Woods Placky: But we also know and we can measure that we are adding more of those to our atmosphere.
- 4:27Bernadette Woods Placky: So that really thin little layer is trapping all this heat.
- 4:32Bernadette Woods Placky: And it's acting like a boiling pot of water.
- 4:35Bernadette Woods Placky: So things are getting more turbulent, they're shaking up, and where that plays out and how that plays out really varies from place to place and types of weather.
- 4:43Bernadette Woods Placky: But that's the real summary is we've got this blanket, we're making it thicker, and because of that, it's making our weather more turbulent.
- 4:52Kathleen Biggins: And I understand that we actually have a discipline of science called atmospheric chemistry that enables us to discern which molecules are of greenhouse gases come from human activities, from burning fossil fuels.
- 5:06Kathleen Biggins: And therefore, we know we are the ones driving the change.
- 5:09Kathleen Biggins: Is that right?
- 5:10Bernadette Woods Placky: This is absolutely true.
- 5:11Bernadette Woods Placky: So when you get into atmospheric chemistry, we look at the different types of greenhouse gases.
- 5:16Bernadette Woods Placky: And then within those greenhouse gases, you can get even deeper.
- 5:19Bernadette Woods Placky: We'll focus on two: carbon dioxide and methane.
- 5:22Bernadette Woods Placky: They're the two biggest ones that we talk about when we talk about climate change in general, because carbon dioxide stays in our atmosphere for a really long time.
- 5:32Bernadette Woods Placky: It breaks down over time, but some version of it for hundreds of years, and you can get into a specific type of carbon, C12, C14, there are different numbers to that.
- 5:42Bernadette Woods Placky: Okay, you're going into professional grade here.
- 5:44Bernadette Woods Placky: That's how we can tell the fossil fuel connection.
- 5:47Kathleen Biggins: Right.
- 5:47Kathleen Biggins: Okay.
- 5:48Kathleen Biggins: So since we know that putting up greenhouse gases is changing our atmosphere's composition, and that in turn is making things hotter.
- 5:57Kathleen Biggins: What are the weather consequences of that?
- 6:01Bernadette Woods Placky: Yes.
- 6:01Bernadette Woods Placky: So getting back to the weather part of this, that's what's changing our weather because we're changing our atmosphere.
- 6:06Bernadette Woods Placky: We're making it hotter.
- 6:08Bernadette Woods Placky: Different types of weather play out differently.
- 6:11Bernadette Woods Placky: The first, most obvious one is more heat leads to more heat.
- 6:16Bernadette Woods Placky: We get more record heat.
- 6:18Bernadette Woods Placky: It lasts longer, it's pushing to new levels.
- 6:21Bernadette Woods Placky: Our summertime heat is creeping into the spring and into the fall.
- 6:25Bernadette Woods Placky: It's thawing out our winters and it's playing out in many different ways.
- 6:28Bernadette Woods Placky: But that's the first one is more heat equals more heat.
- 6:31Bernadette Woods Placky: Got it.
- 6:32Bernadette Woods Placky: Then we can get on to how it's changing our water cycle.
- 6:35Bernadette Woods Placky: And this can get a little confusing at times because we are getting both more heavy rain and more intense drought at the same time.
- 6:42Bernadette Woods Placky: And that can be confusing, right?
- 6:44Bernadette Woods Placky: How can it get wetter and how can it get drier?
- 6:46Bernadette Woods Placky: But this is how that plays out scientifically.
- 6:49Bernadette Woods Placky: Come back to that atmosphere, right?
- 6:52Bernadette Woods Placky: Our globe is mainly water.
- 6:54Bernadette Woods Placky: We sometimes forget that when we're on land, but over 70% of our globe is water.
- 6:58Bernadette Woods Placky: And when you create a hotter atmosphere, it's forcing more evaporation.
- 7:03Bernadette Woods Placky: So there's more water molecules in that atmosphere.
- 7:06Bernadette Woods Placky: Now they don't always come down.
- 7:08Bernadette Woods Placky: If they don't come down, what it's doing on that drought side is it's intensifying that drought more rapidly.
- 7:14Bernadette Woods Placky: It's more, think of a thirstier atmosphere, right?
- 7:17Bernadette Woods Placky: It's pulling more moisture out of the ground quicker because it's hotter.
- 7:20Bernadette Woods Placky: It dries out quicker.
- 7:22Bernadette Woods Placky: Now, on the opposite side, when we do get a trigger for that rain to come down, whether it's a tropical system, a front, a snowstorm, whatever it may be, we have more moisture available.
- 7:33Bernadette Woods Placky: So it's coming down in bigger buckets.
- 7:35Bernadette Woods Placky: And that's how you get both drought and heavy rain at the same time.
- 7:40Kathleen Biggins: You know that I grew up in New Orleans, so I know a lot about being overwhelmed by rain and water.
- 7:46Kathleen Biggins: But honestly, it seems like it's happening everywhere.
- 7:50Kathleen Biggins: Every time I turn on my TV, somewhere in the world is experiencing a devastating flood, a hundred-year flood or a 500-year flood, even in places that we don't think of as being flood prone.
- 8:02Kathleen Biggins: Are they indeed happening that much more frequently?
- 8:05Bernadette Woods Placky: They are.
- 8:05Bernadette Woods Placky: So there's a few ways that we're going to break this down because one, they are happening more frequently.
- 8:10Bernadette Woods Placky: But at the same time, we're also there's more people and more infrastructure in our way of where these floods are happening.
- 8:18Bernadette Woods Placky: And that infrastructure was built for a different time.
- 8:21Bernadette Woods Placky: So when you have more rain to come down and there is something to trigger that rainfall amount, it's coming down one, two, three plus inches an hour.
- 8:31Bernadette Woods Placky: And that might not sound like a lot, but that is a lot in certain parts of the country.
- 8:36Bernadette Woods Placky: New Orleans, it is still a lot, but it might not quite be the same as that is farther north in certain cities.
- 8:42Bernadette Woods Placky: A regular Sunday in New Orleans, probably.
- 8:44Bernadette Woods Placky: Yes.
- 8:45Bernadette Woods Placky: So yes, we are getting more of these, and we're getting them everywhere.
- 8:48Bernadette Woods Placky: Even the places that are getting drier overall, like the southwestern part of our country, when we get the rain, there's more of it coming down.
- 8:56Bernadette Woods Placky: So it's a it's a different relationship with rainfall that we're experiencing too.
- 9:00Bernadette Woods Placky: And the other thing to think about is we're still warming our atmosphere.
- 9:04Bernadette Woods Placky: So those amounts are growing and they're only going to get higher until we do something to stabilize this climate.
- 9:10Bernadette Woods Placky: Right.
- 9:10Kathleen Biggins: Which means we're going to have to build more infrastructure, spend more money to prepare, harden our homes.
- 9:15Kathleen Biggins: And it's almost like we're trying to catch up to a foe that's running a lot faster because nature is changing so fast.
- 9:23Kathleen Biggins: What are some of the other worrisome weather events that you're seeing being caused by climate change?
- 9:29Bernadette Woods Placky: So we'll stay on the dry side first.
- 9:31Bernadette Woods Placky: And that doesn't mean climate change is causing more wildfires, but what it's doing is setting the stage for bigger, more explosive fires.
- 9:40Bernadette Woods Placky: When you have drier land, you combine that with more heat.
- 9:45Bernadette Woods Placky: Those are two of the ingredients for what we call a fire weather day.
- 9:49Bernadette Woods Placky: Another is the wind.
- 9:50Bernadette Woods Placky: So when you have those three pieces together: dry, hot, and windy, that sets the stage for if something were to ignite, it can explode.
- 9:59Bernadette Woods Placky: Right.
- 10:00Bernadette Woods Placky: And it can go really fast and really far.
- 10:02Bernadette Woods Placky: And we're seeing that across our country, not just across the West.
- 10:06Bernadette Woods Placky: I mean, that's the really documented one, but across Florida, across New Jersey, where we live.
- 10:11Bernadette Woods Placky: This is this is really happening everywhere.
- 10:13Kathleen Biggins: I may ask a silly question here, but if things are burning so much, once they're burnt, can they burn again in the near future?
- 10:23Kathleen Biggins: Or are they kind of are we done with that danger in that area?
- 10:26Kathleen Biggins: Or is it something we have to revisit every decade or so?
- 10:30Bernadette Woods Placky: There is regrowth afterwards.
- 10:33Bernadette Woods Placky: And also there is a lot of land out west that is exposed to this and and across the east too.
- 10:40Bernadette Woods Placky: So if one section burns often that may be a little protective for a couple of years next to it, though, might not be.
- 10:49Bernadette Woods Placky: And then that area might be more susceptible.
- 10:51Bernadette Woods Placky: So it gets a little complex, but there's a lot of land that can burn.
- 10:55Kathleen Biggins: And there's a lot of land in Florida and in Georgia that were already burning just this season.
- 11:00Kathleen Biggins: And so we're seeing it, as you said, in many more places.
- 11:04Kathleen Biggins: I live in New Jersey in a suburban area.
- 11:06Kathleen Biggins: And when I look at climate risk to my own home coming forward, wildfire risk, which is nowhere on the radar at this point, is actually one of the major risks to my home in the future, which really knocked my socks off again because it's just not something I think about.
- 11:22Bernadette Woods Placky: And that's what's so fascinating, is it's not just a Western issue.
- 11:25Bernadette Woods Placky: And it's not even just that the smoke from the Western wildfires moves east.
- 11:29Bernadette Woods Placky: It's we live in a part of New Jersey where we do have a lot of conserved land that is absolutely beautiful.
- 11:34Bernadette Woods Placky: And we've seen some of these wildfires take hold the past couple of years and they can move pretty rapidly in a warming atmosphere.
- 11:42Kathleen Biggins: What about cold?
- 11:44Kathleen Biggins: It still seems like we're getting a lot of really big cold spells, or the polar vortex is coming deeply down to the south.
- 11:51Kathleen Biggins: Is that linked in any way to climate change?
- 11:56Bernadette Woods Placky: So overall, we are not getting more cold.
- 11:59Bernadette Woods Placky: Our source regions where that cold air comes from are also warming up.
- 12:03Bernadette Woods Placky: Meaning the Arctic or the The Arctic is warming up.
- 12:06Bernadette Woods Placky: So it's not as cold as it used to be, even when it does come south.
- 12:09Bernadette Woods Placky: That doesn't mean it's not cold.
- 12:11Bernadette Woods Placky: So but the thing is, we're we're talking about perspective here.
- 12:14Bernadette Woods Placky: If it was a minus 40 and it's a minus 20, that's still really cold, but it's not as cold.
- 12:18Bernadette Woods Placky: So just keep that in perspective.
- 12:20Bernadette Woods Placky: But overall, we are not getting more cold.
- 12:23Bernadette Woods Placky: There's a few different analysis we had done while I was at Climate Central that looks at the coldest cold over the course of 30, 40, 50 years, right?
- 12:31Bernadette Woods Placky: So what would have been a minus 20 something in parts of Minnesota or pushing a minus 30 might now be coming in at a minus 15.
- 12:40Bernadette Woods Placky: Again, cold, but not as cold.
- 12:43Bernadette Woods Placky: So overall, it's just not happening as much.
- 12:47Bernadette Woods Placky: It's big news when it happens, because it doesn't happen as much.
- 12:52Bernadette Woods Placky: As we keep creeping up with temperatures, we're getting used to a warmer winter.
- 12:57Bernadette Woods Placky: And when we get a snapshot of what it used to be, it feels really extraordinary.
- 13:02Bernadette Woods Placky: Even this past winter, a few of the really cold outbreaks.
- 13:06Bernadette Woods Placky: So again, we're recording this in 2026.
- 13:09Bernadette Woods Placky: So some of the winter of 2025 into early 2026 was really cold for parts of the country.
- 13:15Bernadette Woods Placky: But there were only a handful of record colds.
- 13:18Bernadette Woods Placky: Now there were records that definitely happened.
- 13:20Bernadette Woods Placky: But at the same time, the western part of our country was breaking record high after record high after record high.
- 13:27Bernadette Woods Placky: So that's another way you can look at this.
- 13:29Bernadette Woods Placky: It's cold, it's just not as cold.
- 13:31Bernadette Woods Placky: It's not breaking as many records.
- 13:32Bernadette Woods Placky: The area that it's coming from is not as cold.
- 13:34Bernadette Woods Placky: At the same time, on the opposite side, it's still pushing the heat.
- 13:38Bernadette Woods Placky: Heat, heat, heat, heat.
- 13:40Bernadette Woods Placky: So there's that.
- 13:41Bernadette Woods Placky: If you like science and research and some really fun science going on right now of how our jet stream, which moves our storms along way up where the airplanes fly, how that's changing with climate change.
- 13:56Bernadette Woods Placky: And if our jet stream changes, it's going to set up our storm patterns differently.
- 14:00Bernadette Woods Placky: And with Arctic amplification, so so hang with me here, everybody.
- 14:05Bernadette Woods Placky: You've got the equator, right?
- 14:07Bernadette Woods Placky: Yeah.
- 14:08Bernadette Woods Placky: Warmer.
- 14:08Bernadette Woods Placky: Yep.
- 14:09Bernadette Woods Placky: You've got the poles colder.
- 14:11Bernadette Woods Placky: And if the Arctic is warming faster than the equator, the difference in temperature isn't as extreme.
- 14:20Kathleen Biggins: That makes sense.
- 14:21Bernadette Woods Placky: It's that difference in temperature that drives our jet stream.
- 14:24Bernadette Woods Placky: If it's not as extreme, it can slow down that jet stream and it can get wavier.
- 14:29Bernadette Woods Placky: And think of a river or a stream.
- 14:31Bernadette Woods Placky: When a river's going really fast, it can stay on a track.
- 14:34Bernadette Woods Placky: When it starts to lose that water, it gets really windy.
- 14:39Bernadette Woods Placky: That's what the research is looking at.
- 14:41Bernadette Woods Placky: Is that happening with our jet stream right now as things are changing?
- 14:45Bernadette Woods Placky: So if that's the case and it gets really windy, when it dips low, it's gonna bring some of that colder air from the poles our way.
- 14:55Bernadette Woods Placky: And it's gonna stay in place for longer.
- 14:58Bernadette Woods Placky: That's the other thing.
- 14:59Bernadette Woods Placky: It gets really stuck, just like that stream would get really stuck when it starts to get windy.
- 15:04Bernadette Woods Placky: So that's one of the things that's the overall pattern and how that is.
- 15:07Bernadette Woods Placky: So that's talking about the cold again.
- 15:09Bernadette Woods Placky: Winter weather, though, let's come back to the rainfall.
- 15:14Bernadette Woods Placky: If it's still below 32 degrees, that extra precipitation will fall the snow.
- 15:19Bernadette Woods Placky: And there's a lot of parts of our country that's still going to happen.
- 15:22Bernadette Woods Placky: It's just if you've got more moisture and you've got a temperature below the 32, that more moisture comes down as more snow.
- 15:30Bernadette Woods Placky: So that is another tricky one to process sometimes, right?
- 15:33Bernadette Woods Placky: But think about high mountains or high north latitudes.
- 15:37Bernadette Woods Placky: It's still significantly below 32 for a lot of these events.
- 15:40Bernadette Woods Placky: So the extra precipitation is coming down as more snow.
- 15:44Bernadette Woods Placky: So that is the connection with more winter weather.
- 15:48Kathleen Biggins: Okay, so you talked about timing.
- 15:51Kathleen Biggins: Um, and I think that triggers something that that has come forward a lot more recently, is that even though we're having heat and cold, they're kind of getting shuffled together.
- 16:01Kathleen Biggins: I mean, like in spring, we might have a beautiful day that causes our spring flowers to bloom, and then hello, winter's still here and they get creamed.
- 16:10Kathleen Biggins: And if you're a fruit crop or something like that, it can really harm the yields later in the season.
- 16:15Kathleen Biggins: And it's also hard for us to figure it out.
- 16:17Kathleen Biggins: We get whiplash, right?
- 16:18Kathleen Biggins: It's cold, it's hot, it's cold, it's hot.
- 16:20Kathleen Biggins: Is that also uh the face of climate change?
- 16:24Bernadette Woods Placky: Well, we've always had shifts in spring and fall.
- 16:28Bernadette Woods Placky: These are really our transition seasons anyway.
- 16:30Bernadette Woods Placky: If you go back over time, it's gonna be hot, cold, hot, cold.
- 16:33Bernadette Woods Placky: You'll see that in the records for sure.
- 16:35Bernadette Woods Placky: We're pushing the levels during these times.
- 16:40Bernadette Woods Placky: And so what would have been traditionally still a last freeze date for some of our locations is at risk now because we're we're pushing our warmth earlier and things are blooming earlier.
- 16:52Bernadette Woods Placky: And they're putting them at risk for if we get what would have been a normal cold front to come through, suddenly everything's at bloom.
- 16:59Bernadette Woods Placky: It's at risk.
- 17:00Bernadette Woods Placky: And that's what we're seeing of.
- 17:01Bernadette Woods Placky: And that has happened more, definitely with climate change.
- 17:04Bernadette Woods Placky: We got it this year in New Jersey.
- 17:07Bernadette Woods Placky: I know it's been a big issue for a lot of our fruit in New Jersey.
- 17:10Bernadette Woods Placky: There was a few years ago, there was a really significant event in Georgia and South Carolina that took out so many peaches, rose to the level of a billion-dollar disaster event because it took so much of the peach crop out.
- 17:23Bernadette Woods Placky: And the cold front during that time, it wasn't anything extraordinarily later.
- 17:29Bernadette Woods Placky: It was that it gotten so warm so much earlier to put the crops at risk.
- 17:35Kathleen Biggins: Right.
- 17:35Kathleen Biggins: So it's kind of the we're changing the the old cycles of nature in some ways, right?
- 17:40Kathleen Biggins: I mean, because I'm reading too that when that changes, then things like migrating birds don't necessarily have the food they need at the time period that they need it.
- 17:49Kathleen Biggins: And so it's almost like when I use the word shuffle, it just kind of really resonates in my mind.
- 17:54Kathleen Biggins: It's like something that had been kind of neat is now getting all mixed up.
- 17:58Bernadette Woods Placky: There are some people that use global weirding, that they use chaos.
- 18:01Bernadette Woods Placky: There, there's, you know, different ways you can the climate challenge.
- 18:05Bernadette Woods Placky: It's we talk about the extremes when it comes to weather because they are significant and they are the events that take our lives, as we were talking about, livelihoods.
- 18:12Bernadette Woods Placky: They really smack you across the face and force you to look at something differently if your home's washed away.
- 18:18Bernadette Woods Placky: At the same time, though, it's those everyday changes that are happening also, and that mistiming really is a factor and it's playing out in these crops.
- 18:28Bernadette Woods Placky: And it is playing out with pollinators and when they come or when birds do migrate, and we are seeing that.
- 18:34Bernadette Woods Placky: And it is a big risk, too.
- 18:37Kathleen Biggins: It just seems like the costs that are coming to again prepare for the new normals of nature, and also the costs that we're experiencing as taxpayers to repair from all of the damage that's happening all around us is just getting too big to ignore.
- 18:54Bernadette Woods Placky: It's costing more not to do something at this point than to do something.
- 18:57Bernadette Woods Placky: That's where we are.
- 18:58Bernadette Woods Placky: And even to update some of the language we use, there's a lot of people that call them unnatural disasters now.
- 19:03Bernadette Woods Placky: And even the new normal, the changing normal, because we haven't plateaued.
- 19:08Bernadette Woods Placky: Right.
- 19:08Bernadette Woods Placky: We haven't settled.
- 19:09Bernadette Woods Placky: It is still changing, and it will continue to until we get a handle on things.
- 19:14Bernadette Woods Placky: So, yes, we are at a point.
- 19:16Kathleen Biggins: Get a handle on things, meaning lower emissions?
- 19:18Kathleen Biggins: Yes.
- 19:19Kathleen Biggins: Okay.
- 19:20Kathleen Biggins: And if we lower emissions, how quickly would that have an impact on lowering our risk?
- 19:27Kathleen Biggins: Is that something that we could expect within a generation or something that we're doing for future generations?
- 19:32Bernadette Woods Placky: We are still increasing the amount of emissions that we are putting into our atmosphere.
- 19:36Bernadette Woods Placky: And again, just to remind people where those come from, it's mainly the burning of fossil fuels, coal, oil, and gas.
- 19:43Bernadette Woods Placky: Our biggest emitter sector in the United States is transportation.
- 19:48Bernadette Woods Placky: We drive really big things far.
- 19:50Bernadette Woods Placky: We have a big country.
- 19:51Bernadette Woods Placky: It is complicated.
- 19:53Bernadette Woods Placky: At the same time, our energy systems and both transportation and energy systems, we have some really great solutions that are already up and running, right?
- 20:04Bernadette Woods Placky: Then you play into how we treat our land, our farming system.
- 20:08Bernadette Woods Placky: That also factors in.
- 20:09Bernadette Woods Placky: It's if we keep letting this temperature rise, it's not a linear thing.
- 20:14Bernadette Woods Placky: It's with each tenth of a degree, a lot more starts to break down.
- 20:20Bernadette Woods Placky: Think of your body in a temperature in 98 degrees when you're pushing to 100.
- 20:25Bernadette Woods Placky: You can still function with certain things.
- 20:27Bernadette Woods Placky: You're not feeling well, but by 101, 102, 103, a lot just starts to break down and compound within that.
- 20:34Bernadette Woods Placky: And that's our earth.
- 20:35Bernadette Woods Placky: That's what's happening to our earth.
- 20:37Bernadette Woods Placky: So we, if we can stabilize, even without dropping, if we can stabilize, we can protect a lot of what we have still.
- 20:46Bernadette Woods Placky: And that's really critical because this isn't just a, we have to keep thinking about this.
- 20:51Bernadette Woods Placky: We are still accelerating, we are still increasing.
- 20:54Bernadette Woods Placky: So a lot of these changes can even help us stabilize so that we can build a healthier, safer society that we know how to do and we know will be better for everyone.
- 21:03Bernadette Woods Placky: And that is where there's a lot of hope.
- 21:13Kathleen Biggins: More when we return after this break.
- 21:16Kathleen Biggins: One of the things that we read about quite a lot are these tipping points, things that when they happen cannot be turned back to the way they were within human time frames.
- 22:50Kathleen Biggins: How seriously should we take tipping points?
- 22:53Kathleen Biggins: Or what are the ones that you are most concerned about?
- 22:56Bernadette Woods Placky: Tipping points are fascinating because their risk is so they're frightening.
- 22:59Bernadette Woods Placky: They're not fascinating.
- 23:01Bernadette Woods Placky: They are frightening, they are.
- 23:02Bernadette Woods Placky: Scientifically, they're fascinating because the risk is so small, but the impact is grandiose, right?
- 23:11Bernadette Woods Placky: It is life-changing.
- 23:12Bernadette Woods Placky: And the big ones that people are looking at right now, the AMOC.
- 23:17Bernadette Woods Placky: I know you and I have talked about that.
- 23:18Bernadette Woods Placky: That's the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.
- 23:24Bernadette Woods Placky: So we'll just say AMOC, right?
- 23:26Bernadette Woods Placky: But what it is is really that current.
- 23:28Bernadette Woods Placky: It's a whole loop that starts down in off of Florida, makes its way with the Gulf Stream, brings the warmer water up toward Canada and the northern part of the Atlantic, and then up into the northern part of Europe.
- 23:45Bernadette Woods Placky: This is where a picture is better, right?
- 23:46Bernadette Woods Placky: I'm trying to it comes up and it and it transports that warmer water up.
- 23:51Bernadette Woods Placky: Then it overturns.
- 23:53Bernadette Woods Placky: And then it forces the colder water down, brings it back down.
- 23:57Bernadette Woods Placky: There's a lot of benefits, right?
- 23:59Bernadette Woods Placky: It to our marine life, to salinity.
- 24:01Bernadette Woods Placky: It keeps things balanced overall.
- 24:03Bernadette Woods Placky: There is some crazy research if we're hitting some tipping points with that.
- 24:07Bernadette Woods Placky: And if we were to hit a tipping point with AMOC, the circulation's going to slow down, slow down to a point that it won't transport as much warm water north.
- 24:18Bernadette Woods Placky: That would actually chill parts of northern Europe.
- 24:23Bernadette Woods Placky: Not the kind of cooling you want, right?
- 24:25Bernadette Woods Placky: So, like this is like you have to really be careful with this because it's it may counter some of the overall warming that's going on, but it's it's not what we want because it will dramatically affect marine life.
- 24:36Bernadette Woods Placky: We will see an incredible sea level rise along the east coast of the United States, and salinity levels will be way out of whack.
- 24:44Bernadette Woods Placky: And so it's it's not something we want.
- 24:47Bernadette Woods Placky: And that is possibly at risk.
- 24:49Bernadette Woods Placky: Now, is it going to happen or not?
- 24:50Bernadette Woods Placky: I do not know.
- 24:51Bernadette Woods Placky: There, there are new research papers coming out that are showing it's closer and closer, but again, very active research right now.
- 24:58Bernadette Woods Placky: We we do not know at this point, but we need to keep paying attention because if that does slow down to that level, life changes for a whole lot of people.
- 25:06Kathleen Biggins: On much of the planet, because it's also rains across Africa.
- 25:10Kathleen Biggins: It's it's it really has impacts that are so far reaching that it is concerning.
- 25:15Kathleen Biggins: And it has overturned in not too distant history, right?
- 25:19Kathleen Biggins: So this is something that happens.
- 25:20Kathleen Biggins: And if we're precipitating it at a time when there's so many of us on this planet and so many people be impacted, it's it's a big deal.
- 25:28Kathleen Biggins: But let's talk about some of the other tipping points.
- 25:30Kathleen Biggins: Uh let's talk about the melting permafrost because that's something we're seeing in real time.
- 25:35Kathleen Biggins: Some of the rivers out in Alaska are turning orange because the permafrost is melting and different minerals are leaching into them.
- 25:42Kathleen Biggins: Is that something that concerns you because it it's putting up so much methane and so much carbon dioxide?
- 25:49Bernadette Woods Placky: Permafrost is the frozen land that we just sort of assume will always be frozen across our poles.
- 25:57Bernadette Woods Placky: The thing is, as we warm, some of that's thawing.
- 26:00Bernadette Woods Placky: And there's a lot that gets banked in what has become frozen because ice takes snapshots of what's in the air at different times and compacts them and brings them down.
- 26:12Bernadette Woods Placky: And so there are things like methane and other levels that are banked into the permafrost right now that if it melts, that gets released.
- 26:20Bernadette Woods Placky: And methane is a really strong greenhouse gas, so it will accelerate our warming.
- 26:24Bernadette Woods Placky: That's one thing.
- 26:25Bernadette Woods Placky: So, yes, that is a major concern.
- 26:27Bernadette Woods Placky: Two, permafrost in the frozen world in general, right, is white and light.
- 26:33Bernadette Woods Placky: And so when you look at our whole climate system, sunlight reflects off of white and darker colors, it absorbs.
- 26:44Bernadette Woods Placky: And so when this melts, the land gets darker because of what's underneath the frozen tundra there.
- 26:51Bernadette Woods Placky: And then it starts absorbing more heat too, again, increasing the amount of warming.
- 26:56Bernadette Woods Placky: And then a lot of, again, the way we've built society is based on what was frozen.
- 27:02Bernadette Woods Placky: So a lot of our native people across some of these frozen tundras still have an element of nomadic life to them that is living off the land and certain types of animals that come at certain types of year that they're used to coming, or how they fish or where they fish.
- 27:19Bernadette Woods Placky: But the more that melts, you're not going to see as many of those animals in some of those places because they are not just walking across the frozen land.
- 27:27Bernadette Woods Placky: It may either be thawed out land or it might be water, right?
- 27:32Bernadette Woods Placky: Because that's a part of it too.
- 27:33Bernadette Woods Placky: So it's a little different than permafrost, but it's ice.
- 27:35Bernadette Woods Placky: And then also if that happens along the coasts, it exposes the coastlines more.
- 27:39Bernadette Woods Placky: And what, and when you combine that with the ice part that's melting over the waters, you're getting some bigger seas that are leading to more coastal erosion.
- 27:47Bernadette Woods Placky: And we've already seen some communities across Alaska have to relocate.
- 27:51Bernadette Woods Placky: Well, when we see in Alaska, we also see it in Louisiana.
- 27:54Bernadette Woods Placky: It is so complicated.
- 27:55Bernadette Woods Placky: The politics, the land rights, the who gets what, to have to move your home.
- 28:01Bernadette Woods Placky: It's emotional.
- 28:02Bernadette Woods Placky: It it's really messy.
- 28:04Kathleen Biggins: But you raise a very good point, though, because sea level is rising.
- 28:08Kathleen Biggins: It is changing our coastline.
- 28:10Kathleen Biggins: I saw some pictures of Florida back during the last glacial period.
- 28:15Kathleen Biggins: And it was so fat.
- 28:16Kathleen Biggins: It was just a big, fat state, and that's because so much of the Earth's water was up on ice.
- 28:23Kathleen Biggins: And then you see a picture of um Florida back when the temperatures were as high as they are today, and it's this little nubbin.
- 28:30Kathleen Biggins: It's so tiny, it doesn't even look close to being the state of Florida.
- 28:34Kathleen Biggins: And I think so many of us, just like we say, weather is what's outside our door right now, we think the sea level has always been here and always will be.
- 28:44Kathleen Biggins: But seeing those pictures of Florida just really made me realize what we have set into motion.
- 28:50Kathleen Biggins: And it's not just places like Louisiana and parts of Alaska, it's our major cities.
- 28:57Kathleen Biggins: It's London, it's Miami, it's New York City.
- 29:00Kathleen Biggins: They're all on the coastline.
- 29:02Kathleen Biggins: And so when we think of what we're setting to motion and the types of heartbreak and costs that are coming, it's just so much more than people realize.
- 29:11Bernadette Woods Placky: When there were the dramatic shifts in the past, yes, the climate has changed before.
- 29:15Bernadette Woods Placky: There have been big shifts.
- 29:16Bernadette Woods Placky: We have not had land set up and as mature and developed as we do now.
- 29:24Bernadette Woods Placky: We can't just move New York City.
- 29:26Bernadette Woods Placky: Right.
- 29:26Bernadette Woods Placky: I mean, it it's it's crazy.
- 29:29Bernadette Woods Placky: So in Indonesia, Jakarta, they're moving their capital right now.
- 29:32Bernadette Woods Placky: Right.
- 29:33Bernadette Woods Placky: This is wild to follow.
- 29:35Bernadette Woods Placky: I mean, some of it is our changing climate, but some of it is also they are sinking for several different reasons.
- 29:40Bernadette Woods Placky: So it's not fully a climate story, but climate is part of the story.
- 29:44Bernadette Woods Placky: And they are physically moving their capital.
- 29:47Bernadette Woods Placky: Right.
- 29:47Bernadette Woods Placky: Another part of weather that we didn't talk about yet is our tropical systems and hurricanes.
- 29:52Bernadette Woods Placky: Oh, yeah.
- 29:53Bernadette Woods Placky: Okay.
- 29:53Bernadette Woods Placky: And so when you get a storm combined with sea level rise, that water's coming higher, it's coming farther inland.
- 30:01Kathleen Biggins: I'm sure you saw the recent report that said New Orleans um will soon be uh just an island amongst a ring of water, and that they should consider starting to relocate the city of New Orleans in the next few decades, which of course broke my heart.
- 30:17Kathleen Biggins: But it is that one-two punch.
- 30:19Kathleen Biggins: It's it's when you have these hurricanes on top of the sea level rise that really causes the crisis in real time that makes us stand up and notice.
- 30:28Kathleen Biggins: So, how is climate change making hurricanes more dangerous or more expensive?
- 30:34Bernadette Woods Placky: So, a few different ways here, too.
- 30:35Bernadette Woods Placky: So you've got warmer water, right?
- 30:37Bernadette Woods Placky: And we talk about all the warming in our atmosphere, but over 90% of the extra heat in our climate system is going into our water.
- 30:44Bernadette Woods Placky: Over 90%.
- 30:45Bernadette Woods Placky: I mean, this is a really big number.
- 30:47Bernadette Woods Placky: Warmer water has more fuel to it.
- 30:50Bernadette Woods Placky: That's why we get hurricanes, tropical systems.
- 30:53Bernadette Woods Placky: If you live in other parts of the world, typhoons, different names to them, right?
- 30:57Bernadette Woods Placky: Cyclones.
- 30:58Bernadette Woods Placky: But they're the same concept.
- 30:59Bernadette Woods Placky: They come when the water's warm.
- 31:01Bernadette Woods Placky: So warm water gives the fuel for these storms.
- 31:04Bernadette Woods Placky: When you bump up those temperatures, it's more fuel.
- 31:08Bernadette Woods Placky: So that's one factor there.
- 31:10Bernadette Woods Placky: So you've got storms that are getting stronger.
- 31:14Bernadette Woods Placky: At the same time, they're getting stronger faster.
- 31:16Bernadette Woods Placky: And we call that rapid intensification.
- 31:18Bernadette Woods Placky: When you go to bed at night and it's a category one, you wake up as a category three or four.
- 31:23Bernadette Woods Placky: This is documented to be happening more often.
- 31:26Bernadette Woods Placky: There's a lot of risk with that, that's that's not good for many reasons.
- 31:30Bernadette Woods Placky: It's a stronger storm.
- 31:31Bernadette Woods Placky: But two, if a storm's coming close to land and you're preparing for a category one evacuation, it is a vastly different thing than preparing for category three, category four with timing, with locations and who goes and when and what goes, right?
- 31:46Bernadette Woods Placky: You've lived it.
- 31:47Bernadette Woods Placky: So that is changing our risk and our preparation around it.
- 31:52Bernadette Woods Placky: And then when they make landfall, it's coming with more heavy rain that's overwhelming systems, and it's coming with a higher storm surge that's going farther inland.
- 32:03Bernadette Woods Placky: So we're seeing more rapid intensification, pushing to higher levels, heavier, more rainfall with these storms, and then a stronger, higher storm surge.
- 32:12Bernadette Woods Placky: What about wind?
- 32:13Bernadette Woods Placky: Wind is interesting because that's how we measure the categories of storms, is on pressure and wind.
- 32:18Bernadette Woods Placky: Right.
- 32:18Bernadette Woods Placky: It is really a wind scale.
- 32:21Bernadette Woods Placky: And when you talk about the Sappho-Simpson scale, there they're again in our scientific communities.
- 32:27Bernadette Woods Placky: I am on the side that we should revisit a scale somehow because it is purely based on wind.
- 32:32Bernadette Woods Placky: It does not account for the amount of rain.
- 32:35Bernadette Woods Placky: And that is water is one of our deadliest factors in Land Fong.
- 32:39Kathleen Biggins: So you're talking about category one is this the Sapphire scale scale.
- 32:44Bernadette Woods Placky: So some people have said we need a category six.
- 32:46Bernadette Woods Placky: Do you believe that?
- 32:47Bernadette Woods Placky: The definition of a category four, I mean category five, excuse me, pretty much equates to devastation.
- 32:54Bernadette Woods Placky: So how do you go above devastation, right?
- 32:57Bernadette Woods Placky: But at the same time, then the way that the numbers are chunked 20, 20 plus miles per hour, it's going above what would be the next category.
- 33:06Bernadette Woods Placky: Like we're going there in the numbers.
- 33:08Kathleen Biggins: So the wind speeds are already into that next category.
- 33:11Kathleen Biggins: And we're just not calling it that yet because we don't have it on the scale.
- 33:16Kathleen Biggins: Things are getting past our norms.
- 33:19Kathleen Biggins: Things are getting above what we have, the tools to measure them with our historic way.
- 33:25Kathleen Biggins: How is science reacting to it?
- 33:28Kathleen Biggins: What are the new scientific inquiries, the ability to project better and the ability to help us understand the attribution between some of these events and climate change?
- 33:41Kathleen Biggins: How are we sharpening our tools to better understand how nature is changing?
- 33:46Bernadette Woods Placky: So, one of the tools you just you just tipped on is a branch of climate science called attribution science.
- 33:51Bernadette Woods Placky: And it's where we can physically go into a storm and assess the role of climate change within that event.
- 33:58Bernadette Woods Placky: And the way that's done scientifically has to do with observations, taking you back in time, and really pulling out the statistics and probabilities of the likelihood of this event happening, combined with modeling.
- 34:13Bernadette Woods Placky: And when you go into computer models, you can crank up the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, you can crank it down, take it back to what we call pre-industrial levels in the earlier 1800s, and you play around with all of this.
- 34:27Bernadette Woods Placky: And then you package all of this data, all of this information together, and then you come out with how much stronger this storm might have been, or how much more likely it is for this storm to happen.
- 34:40Bernadette Woods Placky: And so you can really tease out the role of climate change within individual events and also temperatures too.
- 34:47Bernadette Woods Placky: So is it just storms or is it wildfires?
- 34:50Bernadette Woods Placky: Is it more so heat waves, like how how heat waves, yeah.
- 34:54Bernadette Woods Placky: I haven't seen a heat wave that wasn't made more likely because of climate change in a long time.
- 34:59Bernadette Woods Placky: We are at a point where you put in the heat, you're getting more heat.
- 35:02Bernadette Woods Placky: There is almost every time a fingerprint of climate change in this extreme heat that we're getting.
- 35:09Bernadette Woods Placky: And our temperature records go back the farthest of really most of our weather measurements that we have.
- 35:16Bernadette Woods Placky: So you can look at a longer period of time and we understand the complexities of heat, right?
- 35:22Bernadette Woods Placky: Whereas on the other end of that scale, tornadoes.
- 35:25Bernadette Woods Placky: Right.
- 35:25Bernadette Woods Placky: Our data record just doesn't go back as far with tornadoes.
- 35:28Bernadette Woods Placky: That doesn't mean we don't know anything.
- 35:30Bernadette Woods Placky: It's just harder to tease out something on such a small scale on these different time frames.
- 35:35Bernadette Woods Placky: We're not going to see many attribution reports soon about tornadoes, but maybe, and we have seen like overall pattern setups.
- 35:43Kathleen Biggins: How rigorous then are the models that we have today?
- 35:46Kathleen Biggins: How good are they in understanding what's happening, but also in forecasting?
- 35:51Kathleen Biggins: Weather models, I mean, we continue to just get better and better and better.
- 35:54Bernadette Woods Placky: And this is one of the areas with AI, it'll be fascinating to watch because some of the AI models are doing better on certain elements of forecasting, but we can't just fully go to them yet.
- 36:07Bernadette Woods Placky: We're not, we're not at that point.
- 36:08Bernadette Woods Placky: You need to balance the current physically based models with the equations and the AI models, bringing in a lot of pattern recognition and other elements.
- 36:16Bernadette Woods Placky: So we're at a point where we need both, but we keep pushing that forward.
- 36:21Bernadette Woods Placky: And this is why we need real funding around this is we are getting really good at this, and we're getting better and better to the point that everyone's expectations are so high for every forecast because it has advanced so rapidly.
- 36:35Bernadette Woods Placky: And so if we can keep pushing that direction, we'll get even better with our weather forecasts.
- 36:40Bernadette Woods Placky: Now, on the climate models, it's like it is different.
- 36:42Bernadette Woods Placky: The past couple of years, it is advancing pretty rapidly.
- 36:45Bernadette Woods Placky: And that's again where with AI and computing power, we're gonna have more going forward if we continue to invest in this and we'll learn even more.
- 36:53Bernadette Woods Placky: And with each few years, there's a big assessment of our global circulation climate models.
- 37:01Bernadette Woods Placky: And it steps up, it steps up, it steps up, and they create a framework of how you can downscale to, like we're saying, different regions or different types of events and stuff like that, too.
- 37:12Bernadette Woods Placky: So it's amazing how much better they've gotten.
- 37:14Bernadette Woods Placky: But at this time, with rapid acceleration of technology, there's we could do a lot.
- 37:20Kathleen Biggins: That's that's so reaffirming of our possibility to kind of manage this.
- 37:24Kathleen Biggins: If we understand it, we can probably manage it.
- 37:27Kathleen Biggins: And that's what I so appreciate about what you do.
- 37:31Kathleen Biggins: So you have two young sons.
- 37:33Kathleen Biggins: No, high school already.
- 37:35Kathleen Biggins: I can't believe that.
- 37:36Kathleen Biggins: So clearly, your eye is on the future and what the world will be like for them when they grow up.
- 37:44Kathleen Biggins: What gives you hope that we will be able to provide to them a world that is as beautiful and as safe and as financially secure as the one we were given?
- 37:57Bernadette Woods Placky: It's it's the impacts, but it's the solutions and it's what you can do.
- 38:01Bernadette Woods Placky: And I think it's bigger than climate in this sense.
- 38:04Bernadette Woods Placky: It's empowering our kids, one, to show them what we're doing and what other really dedicated people are doing in this world and expose them to that and try and help our kids understand they can do that too.
- 38:17Bernadette Woods Placky: Don't wait for someone else to do something.
- 38:19Bernadette Woods Placky: Take it upon yourself because we're gonna need to keep advancing things in this world.
- 38:22Bernadette Woods Placky: Climate, obviously, being the biggest one that we focus on, and I do think is our biggest challenge because a lot of our other challenges are connected to climate change.
- 38:32Bernadette Woods Placky: But there's a lot of challenges too, and we can't wait for someone else to do things.
- 38:36Bernadette Woods Placky: We we need to jump in and do them ourselves, whether it's big or small.
- 38:39Bernadette Woods Placky: I mean, you don't have to start a podcast.
- 38:41Bernadette Woods Placky: You don't have to start an organization.
- 38:43Bernadette Woods Placky: There's a lot you can do and just have conversations with people about climate change, help them understand where emissions are coming from, what we can do to bring those emissions down, what that means.
- 38:54Bernadette Woods Placky: And I often get the question is some of the questions are in a scientific world, feel a little basic, but it just shows you that people are interested and they want to know.
- 39:05Bernadette Woods Placky: And so we should approach them on a mutual level that not everyone has to be a climate expert, but we can still have conversations with them to help them understand what's going on and what can be done about it.
- 39:16Bernadette Woods Placky: And I really try to bring that with my kids too is yeah, you go be the person, you go start that conversation, you go, you know enough.
- 39:24Bernadette Woods Placky: So what we can do about that.
- 39:26Kathleen Biggins: No, I love that because that's obviously the mission of our organization, see change conversations.
- 39:31Kathleen Biggins: And it sure helps to know a climate expert.
- 39:34Bernadette Woods Placky: And people can always email you, and you guys showcase a lot of different questions.
- 39:39Bernadette Woods Placky: So if you do have a question that gets sciencey, there's an opportunity to get it answered.
- 39:43Kathleen Biggins: Yes.
- 39:43Kathleen Biggins: Well, I appreciate that.
- 39:45Kathleen Biggins: Thank you, Bernadette.
- 39:48Kathleen Biggins: It has been such a joy to sit down with you and learn more about weather and how climate change is indeed impacting it, and in turn, then impacting our lives on so many levels.
- 39:59Kathleen Biggins: Thank you for being with us.
- 40:00Kathleen Biggins: And thank you for all that you do, Kathleen, and your whole team.
- 40:04Kathleen Biggins: Thank you for joining us.
- 40:11Kathleen Biggins: And thank you to Bernadette Woods Placky for bringing her expertise to our table.
- 40:16Kathleen Biggins: If you'd like to learn more about C- Change conversations, please look at our website, the letter C-conversations with an S dot org.
- 40:26Kathleen Biggins: There you can find all sorts of information about climate change, but also about our outreach.
- 40:33Kathleen Biggins: We travel all around the country to talk to groups about the risk of climate change and what we can do about it.
- 40:40Kathleen Biggins: If you are interested, please reach out.
- 40:43Kathleen Biggins: We'd love to take this presentation to your town as well.
- 40:47Kathleen Biggins: Did you enjoy this episode?
- 40:50Kathleen Biggins: Perhaps you learned something new?
- 40:52Kathleen Biggins: If so, think about others who might benefit from learning about climate change in a cool-headed way and pass it along.
- 41:00Kathleen Biggins: Simmer Down is produced by Hans Buetow and Rebecca Fishkin.
- 41:05Kathleen Biggins: A special thanks to Carrie Dyckman, Nicole Curnan, and Margaret Koval.
- 41:10Kathleen Biggins: We hope you'll listen to our other episodes and bring the climate conversation to your kitchen table.