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NFL Week 12 Best Bets · The Favorites Sports Betting Podcast

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Speaker 1: in West Virginia. Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast from
1:28
Speaker 1: the Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Mollman, chief Content
1:32
Speaker 1: Officer of the Action Network. It is the Tuesday before Thanksgiving,
1:35
Speaker 1: a lot to discuss. This will be our only podcast
1:40
Speaker 1: of the week Thursday's Thanksgiving. We don't expect anyone to
1:44
Speaker 1: be downloading podcasts on Thanksgiving. We expect them to be
1:49
Speaker 1: betting on football. We expect them to be ignoring their
1:52
Speaker 1: family on thanks Giving. So Simon and I we're going
1:57
Speaker 1: to load this podcast like a thanks Giving plate. We
2:03
Speaker 1: are going to stuff it like a turkey. Happy Thanksgiving gamblers.
2:11
Speaker 1: We're thankful for you. We're gonna get to the full slate.
2:16
Speaker 1: We'll get to the big balls better the week. We'll
2:17
Speaker 1: get to this. Simon says, bet of the week. I'm
2:23
Speaker 1: talking of course about Simon Hunter, Professional Better, my co
2:27
Speaker 1: host on the podcast. We will do a scooch roulettes.
2:31
Speaker 1: So I'm in. That's the best week, Chad. Thanksgiving week.
2:35
Speaker 1: I mean, I feel like if you're a diary football fan,
2:38
Speaker 1: this has to be your favorite holiday. You get to
2:40
Speaker 1: eat all day and you sit on the couch, done
2:42
Speaker 1: gets anything to you just watch football all day. It's
2:45
Speaker 1: just a great day and the games are always just terrible.
2:47
Speaker 1: So it's truly the best holiday in my opinion. It's
2:51
Speaker 1: an amazing day. I truly love it. It's very American too,
2:55
Speaker 1: like Fourth of July you blow stuff up, which is
2:57
Speaker 1: very American, and then Thanksgiving which is very American. Holly.
3:00
Speaker 1: You just sit around, eat food and watch football. It's
3:02
Speaker 1: just and you know, it's exciting. It's very possible. We
3:08
Speaker 1: are probably right now the two best betters in America
3:15
Speaker 1: because what happened two weeks ago with our five picks
3:18
Speaker 1: we went four and one. What happened this past weekend
3:21
Speaker 1: with our five picks, we went for and one. We
3:26
Speaker 1: lost the Falcons on Thursday. We should have known better,
3:32
Speaker 1: you Canna lie I was getting known better. One of
3:36
Speaker 1: us should be blamed for that because that that was ugly.
3:41
Speaker 1: But we rallied because we told everybody a week ago.
3:45
Speaker 1: Today at the fucking Texas money line, people, this is
3:50
Speaker 1: the spot. Bet the Texans money line, Simon said, bet
3:54
Speaker 1: the Texans plus ten and a half. As soon as
3:56
Speaker 1: he came out. We did all those things. We had
3:59
Speaker 1: him in the contest, we won. We had the Bears
4:02
Speaker 1: in the contest, we won. We had the Vikings in
4:06
Speaker 1: the contest, we one. Who else did we have in
4:12
Speaker 1: the contest? Yeah, the Colts in the contest, dude, and
4:17
Speaker 1: the money line. Yeah. So that's that's one of those weekends. Um,
4:21
Speaker 1: it's just a reminder to the fans of the show,
4:24
Speaker 1: like I love them, they're they're just loyal and they
4:27
Speaker 1: threw it with us all season. And last week we
4:30
Speaker 1: gave out Washington Football team money line against the Buccaneers.
4:33
Speaker 1: No other show in the world's giving you that money
4:35
Speaker 1: line that hit. We gave out Carolina's money line against
4:37
Speaker 1: Arizona that hit. Then this past weekend we got the
4:41
Speaker 1: Colts money line that hit. We give a Houston's money
4:43
Speaker 1: line that hit. That's I feel like, that's what separates
4:46
Speaker 1: our show from other shows, is no one's given that out.
4:49
Speaker 1: No one's given out the one in eight Houston Texans
4:52
Speaker 1: on Tuesday to go beat Tennessee. Who's eight and one.
4:55
Speaker 1: It's It's what my favorite thing about betting is when
4:57
Speaker 1: you're seeing it clear like that and it's just like
5:00
Speaker 1: when that game got going, I was sweating because they're
5:02
Speaker 1: kicking field goals. It was exactly how I planned, And
5:05
Speaker 1: I was giving shipped to a lot of the guys
5:07
Speaker 1: I worked with because they rejected my big bet. Like
5:09
Speaker 1: Bob texted me, you guys, man, you're gonna kill me
5:12
Speaker 1: on this one, and I just texted them back, you
5:14
Speaker 1: made a mistake, because that's what they did passing on
5:17
Speaker 1: that Houston one. I I knew that was a horrible number.
5:20
Speaker 1: I had it at seven, it was ten and a half.
5:22
Speaker 1: Loved it, loved it, and I was just not Like,
5:26
Speaker 1: the only game we really had to sweat was that
5:28
Speaker 1: Vikings one, and I guess you could say it bears
5:30
Speaker 1: but not really. But the Vikings one was so classic,
5:32
Speaker 1: Like I was thinking myself, I knew me Charry get
5:35
Speaker 1: burned by Kirk. But luckily it all came through four.
5:38
Speaker 1: Now we're three games out of being back to five,
5:41
Speaker 1: which it's crazy, I think, because we were just dying there.
5:44
Speaker 1: But apparently we didn't do it as bad as I thought,
5:46
Speaker 1: because little if we go five, not this week will
5:48
Speaker 1: be two games up five d Yeah, it's been a
5:51
Speaker 1: crazy year in which all the fundamentals we believe in
5:54
Speaker 1: have not played an out of favor until the past
5:57
Speaker 1: couple of weeks when things have started to sort of
5:59
Speaker 1: round out into form. Um. You mentioned just now your
6:03
Speaker 1: big bets, and I know the week before. Uh, for
6:06
Speaker 1: people who know, like you're part of the syndicate, you've
6:09
Speaker 1: got a lot of clients. You will give out really
6:11
Speaker 1: big bets three or four times a year, and you won.
6:15
Speaker 1: The first couple of times you did this, you lost
6:18
Speaker 1: on the Colts plus seven. I think it was against
6:20
Speaker 1: the Titans, and um, that hurt quite a bit. In
6:24
Speaker 1: the last couple of weeks, you want to do the Niners.
6:27
Speaker 1: You this past week you wanted to do the Texans,
6:30
Speaker 1: and you've got to find a consensus and your team
6:32
Speaker 1: has to agree with you. Someone had d m me, Um,
6:38
Speaker 1: what are the other two big bets? You were on
6:41
Speaker 1: the Colts and what were the other two? You don't
6:44
Speaker 1: remember Ravens versus Chiefs. I think it was a Monday
6:47
Speaker 1: night game that yeah, so Ravens went out right, but
6:52
Speaker 1: I think we had four and a half or maybe
6:53
Speaker 1: three and a half, so that that was a nice one.
6:56
Speaker 1: And then I get I do do a little bit
6:58
Speaker 1: of chalk. People people are shocked. I get shock you
7:00
Speaker 1: with it. I do if I think it's a good number.
7:02
Speaker 1: So it was the Chiefs and the Buccaneers money line,
7:05
Speaker 1: so it's a little money line parlay. That was my
7:07
Speaker 1: other biggest bet of the year, so that was what
7:09
Speaker 1: I got. Yeah, New England hit the doinked off the
7:13
Speaker 1: field goal. Um, so that's why I don't always do that,
7:16
Speaker 1: but I just do money line to play it safe.
7:18
Speaker 1: Where like we talked um last week, I couldn't believe
7:22
Speaker 1: it a professional group that came in really heavy on
7:24
Speaker 1: the Buccaneers minus ten. That's rare that a pro group
7:27
Speaker 1: will take a double did your favorite They won't buy twenty.
7:30
Speaker 1: Clearly those guys knew that was a bad number last night.
7:33
Speaker 1: So I'm a coward. I go the other way. I
7:34
Speaker 1: tried to do money lines. Some pro groups really do
7:37
Speaker 1: take those big numbers, and they went on. Yeah, I
7:40
Speaker 1: remember both of those plays that I remember talking about
7:44
Speaker 1: that Bucks Chiefs thing and how nervous you were and
7:47
Speaker 1: talking about on the podcast before the games. Because it
7:49
Speaker 1: felt too easy. I hated that, like I hate when
7:52
Speaker 1: it feels too easy like that. That's that was the
7:54
Speaker 1: same reason. Like we talked on Sunday about the Colts.
7:57
Speaker 1: I had the number at three. I didn't get how
7:58
Speaker 1: the bookmakers were off by so many points. I didn't
8:01
Speaker 1: get why the Colts lion was plus seven. Sure enough
8:03
Speaker 1: that played out. They beat him by what forty points?
8:05
Speaker 1: So that's when the bookmakers just lay deadlines. That happens
8:09
Speaker 1: all the time. That's the scariest part, though, is before
8:11
Speaker 1: the game start, You're like, I don't get it. Why
8:13
Speaker 1: what am I seeing that no one else has seen?
8:15
Speaker 1: Why is this so easy? So that, um, that was
8:18
Speaker 1: a nice one. But like you just said, we're already
8:20
Speaker 1: into We're already in the next week. Six weeks left, chat,
8:22
Speaker 1: six weeks left in the season, Buddy, let's rock and roll.
8:27
Speaker 1: We got a Thursday Thanksgiving spectacular Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions.
8:35
Speaker 1: My phone has been blown up all morning because there
8:37
Speaker 1: are rumors out there that Thursday will be Matt Magi's
8:41
Speaker 1: last team coaching the Chicago Bears. Right now, they're about
8:44
Speaker 1: three point favorites. They'll be the opening game against the Lions.
8:47
Speaker 1: I mean, look, last week it was Tim Boyle against
8:50
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield. This week, I haven't seen reports about Jared Goff.
8:54
Speaker 1: You know, it's it's Dalton. But it's Dalton, right, it's
8:57
Speaker 1: Andy Dalton. But I don't know if it's Jared gofferd
8:59
Speaker 1: Tim Oil. Oh, I'm assuming it's Tim Boyle. Here's what
9:04
Speaker 1: I think. If it's Mattie's last game, you don't think
9:09
Speaker 1: it will be isn't the whole Bears history? They've never
9:12
Speaker 1: fired a coach in season? I know, But I've been
9:14
Speaker 1: thinking about this and like, what's the at this point,
9:16
Speaker 1: They're not going to hire a new coach. Part of
9:18
Speaker 1: the reason they do that is because they are incredibly
9:20
Speaker 1: cheap and so like they don't like to fire coaches
9:25
Speaker 1: and have to pay them out. It's why they brought
9:27
Speaker 1: back Ryan Pace, It's why they brought back mattnege Um.
9:30
Speaker 1: So my feeling is at this point, you're not gonna
9:33
Speaker 1: go hire a new coach, So it doesn't matter if
9:36
Speaker 1: you fire him right now. You're gonna have to pay
9:38
Speaker 1: him either way, and it's only like the rest of
9:41
Speaker 1: the season, so it's just some cost. Why not just
9:44
Speaker 1: get rid of them? So that's the rumor going around
9:47
Speaker 1: in Chicago right now. Uh. Last night at the Bulls game,
9:50
Speaker 1: when the Bulls were down by thirty to the Pacers
9:53
Speaker 1: and yes I was watching that. Shout out Stacy King
9:56
Speaker 1: and Adam Aman best broadcasters in the end be a
10:01
Speaker 1: they were chanting fighter at the United Center. Swear to god,
10:05
Speaker 1: Chicago hates Matt Naggy. He's been a train wreck, so
10:09
Speaker 1: I get it. Yeah, that said bears by three. If
10:13
Speaker 1: it's his last game with a steady Eddie Andy Dalton
10:18
Speaker 1: against a terrible Lions team, or is this the time
10:22
Speaker 1: the Lions rise up? Now? You know what to do here?
10:24
Speaker 1: You take the Bears here? Do you really do? I
10:28
Speaker 1: believe the lines, since I believe there's six and ten
10:32
Speaker 1: a t s um Thanksgiving their last sixteen. There's a
10:36
Speaker 1: weird trend on Thanksgiving. Favorites win, even public favorites like
10:40
Speaker 1: people getting all the money. These favorites usually cover and win.
10:43
Speaker 1: You really love a favorite people don't like on Thanksgiving.
10:46
Speaker 1: And that's why I think rand up with the Bearers team.
10:49
Speaker 1: We want these rumors. Please more rumors, Media, give it,
10:52
Speaker 1: give us more. That's only gonna drive the public to
10:54
Speaker 1: the Lions. We've seen it time and time again this year.
10:58
Speaker 1: When the public is coming and have you on the line,
11:00
Speaker 1: you want to go the other way. That's usually like
11:02
Speaker 1: this line reminds me a lot of the Eagles line.
11:03
Speaker 1: Remember that Eagles line was three and a half m.
11:06
Speaker 1: So it's I'm already can see myself zagging on this.
11:10
Speaker 1: I made this over under to forty three. I see
11:12
Speaker 1: it's down to forty forty one and a half in
11:14
Speaker 1: some books. So I'll be on the Bears. I'll be
11:16
Speaker 1: on the over. Just can see a lot of turnovers
11:18
Speaker 1: coming from that guy. Boyle. You're not gonna have dead
11:21
Speaker 1: arm back there, Baker Mayfield, and I'd better cleet ball
11:23
Speaker 1: four yards. Andy Dalan has been putting it down field,
11:26
Speaker 1: Like that game against the Ravens. He was putting it
11:28
Speaker 1: downfield when he came in. He was completely changed that
11:30
Speaker 1: game once he came in. So clearly any Dylan's more
11:33
Speaker 1: comfortable in this offense and field. So the fact that
11:35
Speaker 1: it is any Dlon, Yeah, I feel good about taking
11:38
Speaker 1: the Bears. And I like this number. My three and
11:40
Speaker 1: a half. As long as it's below four or at four,
11:42
Speaker 1: that's that's that's a good number to me on this game. Well,
11:45
Speaker 1: this will be this will be the game that I'm
11:46
Speaker 1: watching and sweating and being miserable about. Well, I prep
11:53
Speaker 1: my Turkey road favorites ten and two against the lines
11:56
Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving. I think it is our ball better the
11:58
Speaker 1: Week love, I mean the Bears is that is that
12:02
Speaker 1: by far the biggest one, Like no one wants to
12:05
Speaker 1: bet that team. The Bears are definitely that team that
12:07
Speaker 1: we're gonna wake up. We're gonna have instant regret when
12:09
Speaker 1: it's seven nothing Detroit and it's gonna feel like it's
12:11
Speaker 1: gonna take forever Againty Dalton to get us over that hump.
12:14
Speaker 1: But I believe. I believe in the Bears team. This
12:17
Speaker 1: just this one game, big balls better the Week on
12:24
Speaker 1: the Chicago Bears. My team, Chicago Bears. They have my heart,
12:29
Speaker 1: they have my money. Las Vegas Raiders at Dallas Cowboys.
12:34
Speaker 1: Raiders eight point underdogs, seven and a half point underdogs
12:39
Speaker 1: on the road visiting the Cowboys, who did not look good.
12:43
Speaker 1: You and I completely disagreed on this Chiefs Cowboys game. Yeah,
12:47
Speaker 1: you also like the over. I like the younger. So
12:50
Speaker 1: I never said guy, guy. I was noncommittal on the tour.
12:56
Speaker 1: You know, you're pretty dismissive. People are saying you're real
12:58
Speaker 1: dismissive about that, and I think he went under by
13:01
Speaker 1: twenty six points. I I wasn't dismissive about that. You're
13:06
Speaker 1: you're referencing the show convinced me that we do on
13:10
Speaker 1: Sunday mornings, and I will say to people like, because
13:13
Speaker 1: we don't have a show on Thursday, this week, watch
13:15
Speaker 1: convinced me at eleven am on Sunday, because that is
13:18
Speaker 1: when you'll get like our freshest ideas on what's been
13:21
Speaker 1: happening during the week. Um, eleven am at Action Network HQ.
13:25
Speaker 1: Wasn't dismissive. I just liked what someone else was saying.
13:27
Speaker 1: Better about the Browns and the Lions turned out to
13:29
Speaker 1: be right. Um, I loved the Chiefs minus two and
13:32
Speaker 1: a half. You talked to me off it Raiders plus
13:36
Speaker 1: seven and a half? Or are we bet in the Cowboys?
13:39
Speaker 1: Oh God, I hate that I have to take the
13:41
Speaker 1: Raiders here, but I really don't want to. But Ceedee
13:43
Speaker 1: Lamb's out, Amari Cooper's out that that offense. He looked lost,
13:47
Speaker 1: like no receivers can open against the awful chief secondary.
13:51
Speaker 1: I know the Raiders secondary has been great this year,
13:53
Speaker 1: but I mean, man, that's that's a lot of points
13:56
Speaker 1: to be given the Cowboys when they have their two
13:58
Speaker 1: top weapons are out, so I will be taking the
14:02
Speaker 1: Raiders here. But ever since the Rugs accident, they just
14:05
Speaker 1: have not been right. They've had back to back games
14:07
Speaker 1: now they've just been terrible. So I will be on
14:09
Speaker 1: the Raiders, but I don't know if this is gonna
14:11
Speaker 1: be one of my better bets of the week. I
14:12
Speaker 1: don't get this wise guy love for the Raiders, to
14:14
Speaker 1: be honest, Like it continued last week with the Bengals.
14:18
Speaker 1: It happened the week before. They've gotten blown out in
14:20
Speaker 1: both games. Why can't wise guys quit the Raiders. I
14:24
Speaker 1: told you a really wise guy group came in and
14:26
Speaker 1: bet their under wins after that whole incident happened, and
14:29
Speaker 1: they bet the under its six, which is like crazy
14:31
Speaker 1: because they're have five wins. So there are some groups
14:35
Speaker 1: out there that were on this um. I think they're
14:37
Speaker 1: looking at still standpoint from I'm looking at where it's
14:39
Speaker 1: like their cars obviously has been good these last couple
14:43
Speaker 1: of weeks, but he is good this year. I think
14:44
Speaker 1: he's fourth in the league in passing yards. And you
14:47
Speaker 1: have a defense against pressure when they rushed for that's
14:49
Speaker 1: a big deal in football, like not a lot of
14:51
Speaker 1: teams have that kind of ability. So that's why I
14:54
Speaker 1: think they keep coming on this Raiders team. But Derek Carr,
14:56
Speaker 1: he's the reason that keeps getting let down. This guy
14:58
Speaker 1: is throwing picks in the fourth quarter, giving the ball
15:01
Speaker 1: up and turn into seven for their teams. So it's
15:04
Speaker 1: that's why I like, it's hard to say that I
15:06
Speaker 1: want to make this one of my bets, like four
15:08
Speaker 1: or five, but it feels like I have to bet
15:10
Speaker 1: this is a professional. This number is way too inflate,
15:12
Speaker 1: and I think it's just because it's a holiday game,
15:14
Speaker 1: like they opened at seven outs up to eight eight
15:16
Speaker 1: and a half of some books. It's just the publics
15:19
Speaker 1: and are coming so heavy on this Cowboys team, and
15:21
Speaker 1: they are the public is coming in it's like sixty five.
15:25
Speaker 1: That makes sense, but again there are two top weapons
15:28
Speaker 1: are out like they couldn't do anything against a bad
15:30
Speaker 1: Chief's defense. Of course, I see the Dallas bouncing back here,
15:33
Speaker 1: but bouncing back being a team by more than double digits,
15:35
Speaker 1: I just don't see it with this team as they
15:37
Speaker 1: are right now. By the way you mentioned, um, the
15:41
Speaker 1: Lions are a team that when the public is backing him,
15:44
Speaker 1: you want to fade. They're getting the bets right, just
15:48
Speaker 1: kind it's all the drama going on the Barris team.
15:50
Speaker 1: I think everyone's just gonna be off of them. But
15:52
Speaker 1: I I just think it's all noise. Like I get
15:55
Speaker 1: that he might have lost that locker room. He didn't
15:58
Speaker 1: lose any Dalton. Any Dalton's playing for his career right now.
16:00
Speaker 1: So like, if if you have a guy, you're giving
16:02
Speaker 1: me Any Dolan. I know he's terrible. Him versus Tim Boyle,
16:05
Speaker 1: I feel like that really excuse that matchup towards the Bears,
16:08
Speaker 1: even versus Jared Goff. Yeah, but Tim Boyle two picks.
16:13
Speaker 1: Not yet last week in a game, I think he
16:15
Speaker 1: threw the ball in like sixteen times. The guys. He's bad.
16:19
Speaker 1: Andy Dalton professional rifleman, Buffalo Bills at New Orleans Saints.
16:26
Speaker 1: I do want to throw to Matt Mitchell for a second.
16:28
Speaker 1: We have gotten requests in my d M that people
16:30
Speaker 1: like when Matt Mitchell has something to say. The Buffalo
16:33
Speaker 1: Bills are playing on Thanksgiving. It's Matt Mitchell's favorite team
16:37
Speaker 1: playing on his one favorite holiday. If there was ever
16:42
Speaker 1: a holiday that matches a human more, I can't think
16:46
Speaker 1: of it. It's Matt Mitchell getting to bed and stuff
16:50
Speaker 1: his face with food and watch his favorite football team
16:54
Speaker 1: as foreign half point favorites against the New Orleans Saints.
16:57
Speaker 1: Matt Mitchell, please weigh in. Bus part about this game
17:01
Speaker 1: is actually that the game kicks off after both children
17:05
Speaker 1: will be asleep Central Time, which is exhilarating for me,
17:09
Speaker 1: and also that this will be the first time ever
17:12
Speaker 1: in my life that I'll be in my own home
17:14
Speaker 1: on Thanksgiving. I don't have any other responsibilities other than
17:19
Speaker 1: doing exactly as you outlined, eating that second dinner, that
17:22
Speaker 1: third dinner, eating the first layer of pies, working my
17:26
Speaker 1: way to the to the second tertiary pies, having my
17:30
Speaker 1: heart stomped on that last Bills game. Confidence has kind
17:33
Speaker 1: of been an all time low. I hate the short week.
17:36
Speaker 1: I hate that they're traveling. I hate that it feels
17:39
Speaker 1: like they're playing for their season already, which is a
17:41
Speaker 1: weird thing to say. Luckily, it's also the two year
17:44
Speaker 1: anniversary of Buffalo going down to Dallas and choking the
17:48
Speaker 1: Cowboys to death on Thanksgiving, and they kept showing that
17:52
Speaker 1: grizzled old fuck Jerry Jones looking like he wanted to
17:55
Speaker 1: jump out of the owner's box and end it all,
17:57
Speaker 1: which is a Thanksgiving memory that will live in my
18:00
Speaker 1: heart forever. So not feeling that confident this Thanksgiving. But
18:04
Speaker 1: I wasn't feeling confident. Bet you're either, So maybe my expectations,
18:08
Speaker 1: like my cholesterol, will be on the rise come Thursday night. Simon,
18:15
Speaker 1: do we play the Saints plus five and a half? Here?
18:18
Speaker 1: This was not on a holiday, we would, This is
18:20
Speaker 1: Sunday we would. But I told you on Thanksgiving chat
18:23
Speaker 1: we bet with the public and listenances, and that's the
18:25
Speaker 1: one of the times we do it right here. Give
18:27
Speaker 1: me the Bills love this all way up to six classic.
18:31
Speaker 1: This number will be way higher if the Bills had
18:33
Speaker 1: done what people thought they were gonna against the Colts.
18:35
Speaker 1: But they didn't. And I think everyone is feeling the
18:38
Speaker 1: same way, man Mitchell's feeling right now. This team does
18:40
Speaker 1: not look good. They're on a short week. They have
18:42
Speaker 1: not done well against good defense and Saints are a
18:44
Speaker 1: good defense. Well, this is what you want when you
18:47
Speaker 1: want to bet this Bill's team indoors. That's when they
18:50
Speaker 1: killed these teams. You got Digs on turf, You've got
18:53
Speaker 1: Sanders on turf. All the receivers performed better on turf.
18:57
Speaker 1: That's just the facts. They're a very fairy fast team. Literally,
19:01
Speaker 1: the builds are built a perfect indoor team when they
19:04
Speaker 1: play all their games outdoors. It's bizarre, but that's what
19:06
Speaker 1: they built. It's a very very fast team. I already
19:10
Speaker 1: reread a bunch of reports about the coaches talking about
19:12
Speaker 1: they're gonna get Josh Allen on the move, like they
19:15
Speaker 1: think the biggest issue this year is he's been too
19:17
Speaker 1: much stand on the pocket trying to pass instead of
19:19
Speaker 1: taking what the defense is given on which if he
19:21
Speaker 1: can take a ten yards, he should be taking those
19:23
Speaker 1: ten yards. I think we see a big adjustment here.
19:26
Speaker 1: We saw last week with Hurts against the Saints team
19:28
Speaker 1: they could not handle a running quarterback. I feel like
19:31
Speaker 1: we see the exact same thing here with Josh Allen
19:33
Speaker 1: this week. So exactly what Mamtchell was saying A short
19:36
Speaker 1: week is the fear with everyone. I like it. It's
19:38
Speaker 1: just a quick turnaround, get that bad days out of
19:41
Speaker 1: your mouth, go on the road with the team. It's
19:42
Speaker 1: really that's what you kind of want. You want them
19:45
Speaker 1: altogether like they are for the holiday. A great team
19:48
Speaker 1: building moment for this Bills team. So this to me
19:50
Speaker 1: is a turning point in their season. If they don't
19:52
Speaker 1: win this, it really might be New England's defense to
19:55
Speaker 1: win this this division to win this year. So this
19:58
Speaker 1: is a huge game for the Bills team. What I'm
20:01
Speaker 1: not buying from you is the whole Thanksgiving favorites thing.
20:06
Speaker 1: It's too small to sample size and there's no logic.
20:09
Speaker 1: Do you know what I mean? I I can't public
20:11
Speaker 1: favorites getting scent of the bets are better twenty four
20:14
Speaker 1: and seven against the spread on Thanksgiving? Yeah, shut up, Nerd. Yeah, well,
20:19
Speaker 1: then fuck you because you're telling me that I should
20:22
Speaker 1: take the Bears and the Lions are the Bears their favorite? Well,
20:28
Speaker 1: let's keep digging the hole deeper, keep going. What else
20:30
Speaker 1: you got? Well, by the way, it's Thanksgiving. We all
20:35
Speaker 1: love each other, and like you have to make it
20:37
Speaker 1: so angry when when I challenge you, it's just hilarious.
20:44
Speaker 1: You think that's me being angry. You've never seen me angry. Chat.
20:47
Speaker 1: This is You're not You're not signing. You're not signing
20:50
Speaker 1: the hope, You're just a human being. What was that
20:55
Speaker 1: stat again? It's really good public favorites. I'll treat all
20:59
Speaker 1: this stuff outs. I'm steal it all from Brandon, uh
21:01
Speaker 1: Brandon and by the way of the bets, getting the
21:05
Speaker 1: bets from the public and seven a ts on Thanksgiving,
21:12
Speaker 1: that's pretty good. Yeah, I mean that's what I mean.
21:19
Speaker 1: Like I've I've always I've noticed this over the years
21:21
Speaker 1: where you know, I love Paig taking public like home dogs,
21:25
Speaker 1: It's my favorite thing to do. It just did not
21:27
Speaker 1: work out for a couple of years ago. I was
21:29
Speaker 1: kind of adjusted to it where I kind of beef
21:32
Speaker 1: up these lines a little bit for these favorites, just
21:34
Speaker 1: because that's how the public is kind of better regardless,
21:36
Speaker 1: and it's worked out for me. So you know, I
21:39
Speaker 1: do think this this line will get up higher with
21:41
Speaker 1: the Bills. So if you get the four right now,
21:43
Speaker 1: I would definitely take that number. Well, look, we're taking
21:46
Speaker 1: the trend with the Bills, we're ignoring the trend with
21:48
Speaker 1: the Raiders, and we're doing whatever we want with the
21:50
Speaker 1: Bears lines. So we're really only following the trend for
21:53
Speaker 1: one game. Atlanta Falcons at Jacksonville Jaguars. The Falcons basically
22:00
Speaker 1: this is a pick. Everything's coming in on the Falcons
22:02
Speaker 1: right now. I've we've been banned. I mean, the finances
22:05
Speaker 1: have got so many messages were like, please, just don't
22:07
Speaker 1: even talk about the Jaguars anymore. I can't stand it anymore.
22:11
Speaker 1: We'll pass. But of course I'm gonna be on a
22:14
Speaker 1: home dog. I'll be on the Jaguars. This is a
22:15
Speaker 1: corner TV game if there ever was one. Yeah, this
22:18
Speaker 1: is like one of those I might the tops I'll
22:20
Speaker 1: put on as a grant. It's except the other game,
22:24
Speaker 1: New York Jets at Houston Texans. The Jets are now
22:30
Speaker 1: three point underdogs, and this is a pros Joe's game.
22:34
Speaker 1: The bets are coming in on the Jets. The money
22:36
Speaker 1: is coming in on the Texas. I'm shocked. The bets
22:39
Speaker 1: are coming in on the Jets. And I guess maybe
22:41
Speaker 1: people are thinking fade Houston after that win with Tennessee.
22:44
Speaker 1: But we talked all the time while we loved Houston.
22:48
Speaker 1: We love Taylor, I mean, and he was great. Yeah,
22:51
Speaker 1: I'm so mad at myself for not betting his rushing touchdowns.
22:53
Speaker 1: He ran for two of them last week. Um, he's
22:57
Speaker 1: he's just a difference maker. And that's why I tried
22:58
Speaker 1: to explain to my Bob, my boss Bob, It's like
23:01
Speaker 1: they really hated that back because they just don't trust
23:03
Speaker 1: him as a quarterback, and I kept saying he's way
23:05
Speaker 1: better than people give him credit for, like he just
23:07
Speaker 1: doesn't make the stupid plays. And I get he did
23:09
Speaker 1: that Miami game we talked that was just rust. He
23:12
Speaker 1: just looked rust and sloppy in that game, his first
23:14
Speaker 1: game back from the injury. So nothing changer. I love
23:17
Speaker 1: this number. I'm so happy it's that two and a half.
23:19
Speaker 1: That's great. The public will keep betting the Jets and
23:21
Speaker 1: hopefully it's Flacco. I would bet it now, but I
23:23
Speaker 1: would also wait the beat all the time. I don't
23:25
Speaker 1: need to make sure you know who the quarterback is
23:26
Speaker 1: because I do think I can make it a close
23:29
Speaker 1: game with these these other quarterbacks besides Flacco. But just
23:32
Speaker 1: looking on paper, this number should before I have to
23:35
Speaker 1: take Houston and this matchup. When Bob says to you,
23:38
Speaker 1: we're not doing this big bet that you want to do,
23:42
Speaker 1: are you, like, do you say to him as your boss,
23:45
Speaker 1: fuck you, nerd. No, because he's not my friend. I
23:52
Speaker 1: mouthed off to him in the sense that I just
23:54
Speaker 1: simply text back mistake when he when he told me
23:57
Speaker 1: not to play them. So that's how you kind of Drew.
24:00
Speaker 1: I have to drive the nail in there. All I
24:02
Speaker 1: know is that you just called me your friend, best friend, buddy,
24:05
Speaker 1: best friend forever. It's Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots. Wow, Wow, Wow.
24:17
Speaker 1: The Titans are it looks like six and a half
24:20
Speaker 1: point underdogs on the road. What happened here? That's insane.
24:26
Speaker 1: We we've been burned by the like. We can't we
24:28
Speaker 1: can't fade the Patriots until a further date. Listen, they're
24:31
Speaker 1: on our roll. They're just a covering machine. I think
24:33
Speaker 1: I've gone against them three out of four of the weeks.
24:36
Speaker 1: They've just been covering. So I had to throw the
24:39
Speaker 1: numbers out. Of course, the numbers. This is a great
24:41
Speaker 1: number to take. The Titans have to throw it out here.
24:44
Speaker 1: You really can't go against this this Patriots team. Belichick.
24:48
Speaker 1: Not only does he have the defense playing at a
24:50
Speaker 1: crazy high level, the offensive scheme right now is just
24:53
Speaker 1: perfect matchup for this Tennessee team. They're gonna be able
24:56
Speaker 1: to run it against him. The Tennessee Titans are terrible
24:58
Speaker 1: against play action. That's what New England loves to do
25:01
Speaker 1: with Mac Jones. So yeah, I would love to take
25:06
Speaker 1: Tennessee on the road here, but it's just not when
25:08
Speaker 1: the dogs won't be taken this week, I'll probably end
25:10
Speaker 1: up on the Patriots. Wow, Mac Jones a witch nipple quarterback,
25:18
Speaker 1: So there's it. Do you think his brother is going
25:20
Speaker 1: to say to him on Thanksgiving like we instructed him to,
25:24
Speaker 1: Hey Mac, what's up? Mc nipple? Yeah, he's gotta feel
25:27
Speaker 1: like that's a little bit of a trap here. I
25:29
Speaker 1: know what you're saying. Oh, I hate it. I want
25:32
Speaker 1: to take Titans so bad, but I've had to up
25:35
Speaker 1: the numbers on New England. Like I said it last week,
25:38
Speaker 1: if they won that game against Atlanta, I would move
25:40
Speaker 1: them way up in my power ratings to be like
25:41
Speaker 1: a top two, top three team in the NFC. And
25:44
Speaker 1: that's what they are, Like they dominated both sides of
25:47
Speaker 1: the ball. Of course, Mac looked like a rookie threw
25:49
Speaker 1: a pick and like that's what we're expecting. But the
25:52
Speaker 1: rest of the team is so complete it didn't even matter.
25:54
Speaker 1: They're just a dominant team right now. Every fiber of
25:58
Speaker 1: my being is saying take the Titans here. That's fair.
26:00
Speaker 1: I mean again, if it comes Sunday, we'll see. But
26:03
Speaker 1: as we sit here on Tuesday, I would recommend taking anyone.
26:05
Speaker 1: The wise guy play is the Titans. The wise guy
26:08
Speaker 1: number is the Titans. It's had a dead number though
26:11
Speaker 1: it's a five and a half or five. Like if
26:13
Speaker 1: if it got the six and a half, I'd agree
26:15
Speaker 1: with you. But there just isn't any really real value
26:17
Speaker 1: in the five and a half number. I'm seeing six
26:20
Speaker 1: and a half. I do see a six and a
26:22
Speaker 1: half out there. It's like if I hit six and
26:24
Speaker 1: a half, I would have to pull the trigger on that.
26:26
Speaker 1: But I don't feel good about it. I just wanted to.
26:28
Speaker 1: I just want it known that I'm convincing you you
26:31
Speaker 1: are because I had this number three and a half
26:33
Speaker 1: and like I want to take the Titans. It's inflated
26:36
Speaker 1: to the max. But I just cannot do it. Wow,
26:39
Speaker 1: no courage. Maybe for Thanksgiving you should ask for courage.
26:43
Speaker 1: Simon Hunter, professional coward. The Eagles. Your Eagles look strong
26:50
Speaker 1: against the Saints. Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants. Every
26:56
Speaker 1: time the Saints started to get closer in that game,
26:58
Speaker 1: the Eagles and third against a Giants team just fired.
27:04
Speaker 1: Jason Garrett. That is just coming across the wire. Really
27:07
Speaker 1: looked pathetic on offense only scored last night a touchdown
27:11
Speaker 1: when they had an interset. I uh, they were set
27:14
Speaker 1: up inside the five yard line. The line is Giants
27:18
Speaker 1: plus four. Oh god, I mean, I love the Giants.
27:22
Speaker 1: It's it's crazy divisional game. You have to take it though.
27:26
Speaker 1: This is such a pro number, the same reason we
27:28
Speaker 1: took the Vikings last week. Unfortunately didn't get the Vikings
27:31
Speaker 1: out of three, which would have been great because at
27:33
Speaker 1: the at the end of that game, you're like, all right,
27:35
Speaker 1: this is either team's gonna win this game by field goal.
27:37
Speaker 1: But here you're getting a gift for the Giants. It's
27:39
Speaker 1: up to four. Now it's gonna be three and a half.
27:41
Speaker 1: A lot of books you bet this number. You gotta
27:43
Speaker 1: bet this number every time the Eagles are good. They're
27:46
Speaker 1: not that good. There they were I think just two
27:48
Speaker 1: weeks ago this this line was minus three Giants and
27:51
Speaker 1: now it's flipped seven points. So take the value they're
27:54
Speaker 1: giving you in these sports books, and it is a
27:57
Speaker 1: pros Joe's game. Majority of the money on the U Giants,
28:00
Speaker 1: majority of the bets. Let's talk let foxhole, foxhole, Let's
28:08
Speaker 1: clide down into the foxhole, and not a lot of
28:12
Speaker 1: want of people get in, there's gonna be a lot
28:14
Speaker 1: of a lot of bullets flying over top of us here.
28:16
Speaker 1: This is this is one of the uglier bets were
28:18
Speaker 1: making this week. Listen, you don't win, You don't become
28:21
Speaker 1: the best betters in the country over a two week
28:24
Speaker 1: period by making the popular decision, being the leader, being
28:29
Speaker 1: in the foxhel means doing what's right, not doing what's popular.
28:33
Speaker 1: And we're not gonna get any when we've been on
28:35
Speaker 1: a roll. Here the double digit dogs money lines, no
28:38
Speaker 1: double digit dogs this week, all under ten points. So
28:41
Speaker 1: it's sadly it's gonna end our streak. But hey, it
28:44
Speaker 1: was a great two weeks run. We still have a
28:46
Speaker 1: signmon says, and we still got to do um scooch roulette.
28:51
Speaker 1: Don't forget our big balls. Was the pears our foxhole,
28:55
Speaker 1: I mean was the giants. And now a quick word
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31:04
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers fresh off of win Indianapolis Colts fresh
31:08
Speaker 1: off of a win. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Indianapolis Colts
31:13
Speaker 1: feels like a Cults number to me, two and a
31:15
Speaker 1: half three points number one cold Span. It's easy, of course,
31:18
Speaker 1: I bet this. I think people are tweeting at me
31:20
Speaker 1: before they even put the line up there, like, are
31:21
Speaker 1: you gonna know the Cults to get against the Bucks?
31:23
Speaker 1: Of course? I mean that team against the Bill is
31:26
Speaker 1: exactly what I envisioned coming to this season. What I
31:28
Speaker 1: would see from this Colds team just an incredibly dominant
31:31
Speaker 1: offensive line with the best running back in football, Carson
31:34
Speaker 1: Wentz just not screwing him over. Like again, you saw
31:38
Speaker 1: in that game when those third and seven, thirty and eight,
31:40
Speaker 1: he was making those plays, and that's what you want
31:42
Speaker 1: from Carson, Like, that's what makes him different than guys
31:45
Speaker 1: like Sam Donald who cannot make that play consistently. That's
31:48
Speaker 1: what I love about Carson. He's healthy right now, that
31:51
Speaker 1: old line is healthy. The Bucks team didn't look that
31:54
Speaker 1: healthy honestly against that Giants team. They had a bunch
31:57
Speaker 1: of little things happening in that game where you're just like,
31:59
Speaker 1: it's still not right now, it's getting there. Like they
32:02
Speaker 1: had drunk back. They were running the ball against that
32:04
Speaker 1: Giants team, but without all those turnovers from I mean
32:08
Speaker 1: Daniel Jones, Like that was just a complete meltdown game
32:11
Speaker 1: from them. They were going to be in that game
32:13
Speaker 1: that whole time. The Giants, it felt like they were
32:15
Speaker 1: really going to be in that game. So I we've
32:19
Speaker 1: talked about all season, we've just been betting against Brady
32:21
Speaker 1: on the road. It's yet to fail us. It's literally
32:24
Speaker 1: it's worked out every time we've done it. I Mean
32:26
Speaker 1: the Saints, no one thinks they're a good team. We
32:28
Speaker 1: bet them on the number and on the money line.
32:31
Speaker 1: They beat them out right. Washington Football team. People don't
32:33
Speaker 1: think they're a good team. They beat them out right.
32:36
Speaker 1: People do think the Cults are a good team. So
32:38
Speaker 1: how how can we now take this number with this
32:40
Speaker 1: cold team? Plus three? That's just it could be a
32:43
Speaker 1: little bit of a sharp trap, but I'm happy to
32:45
Speaker 1: walk into it. I think we're getting a great number
32:46
Speaker 1: here with this. We got a sharp crap, everybody. We're
32:53
Speaker 1: getting some games here that we like, we really are.
32:57
Speaker 1: I think. I think come Sunday, we're already looking at
32:59
Speaker 1: the Texas, We're looking at the Giants, We're looking at
33:01
Speaker 1: the Colts. It's going to be my favorite bets coming up.
33:05
Speaker 1: Who is it going to be? Simon says, is it
33:07
Speaker 1: the so listen, I'm feeling really good about myself. Uh
33:12
Speaker 1: the here's why. Discipline, discipline and instinct. The Steelers are
33:17
Speaker 1: visiting the Bengals. The Steelers are four and a half
33:20
Speaker 1: point dogs on the road. Two nights ago was Sunday night.
33:24
Speaker 1: The Steelers were six point dogs to the Chargers. Right
33:27
Speaker 1: before the game, I fired away on the Steelers of
33:29
Speaker 1: plus six, went to bed chaos and sued they won.
33:33
Speaker 1: Obviously it was the right side or they lost. But
33:35
Speaker 1: they covered obviously the right side. Last night. Last night,
33:40
Speaker 1: I was very tempted to bet the over didn't do it,
33:43
Speaker 1: very tempted about the Giants didn't do it, very tempted
33:46
Speaker 1: to bet cad Darius Tony over forty one passing receiving
33:49
Speaker 1: yards didn't do it. He landed at forty. So I
33:54
Speaker 1: wake up today because I'm the best better in the world. Um,
33:58
Speaker 1: you're not even a part of the conversation anymore. And
34:00
Speaker 1: I've expanded it beyond the country to the world. I
34:02
Speaker 1: feel like I'm in the right place. You're seeing the board, Well,
34:06
Speaker 1: that's what it is. I'm seeing the board, seeing the
34:08
Speaker 1: whole board. And I look at this and I see
34:10
Speaker 1: Steelers plus four and a half Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals.
34:16
Speaker 1: Simon says, actually, actually like the Bengals. But yeah, I know,
34:22
Speaker 1: I but I'm gonna end up on the Steelers. I
34:25
Speaker 1: just thought it was a fishy line. I didn't get
34:27
Speaker 1: why it was so high up. I made this line three,
34:29
Speaker 1: so my instincts right away where to pound the Steelers.
34:32
Speaker 1: I don't get why the books hung this so hot.
34:34
Speaker 1: This could be like the Colts game, where if they
34:36
Speaker 1: just hung a bad number and you're dead wrong, like
34:37
Speaker 1: the Pittsburgh has been by far. The play here I'm
34:40
Speaker 1: waiting because I don't really get the number. Kind of
34:41
Speaker 1: feels like the Seahawks last week. Like I don't understand
34:44
Speaker 1: why the Seahawks were plus two. I stayed away from
34:46
Speaker 1: that one that went that game stunk of a trap.
34:49
Speaker 1: That's how I feel about this game here. It's, um,
34:51
Speaker 1: it feels too easy. Pittsburgh's defense, they would dominate this
34:54
Speaker 1: Bengal's offense in my opinion, like that if they had
34:57
Speaker 1: T J. Wat back that front, that front seven again,
35:00
Speaker 1: this really bad Bengals offensive line. That's that's a great
35:03
Speaker 1: matchup for this Pittsburgh team. But it's it's just a
35:06
Speaker 1: fishy line. So we'll talk later in the week about
35:09
Speaker 1: this one. I'm seeing it down in three and a
35:10
Speaker 1: half at some books, so obviously the pros of coming
35:13
Speaker 1: on this number, but it just seems off to me.
35:15
Speaker 1: I don't get why the sign didn't open at three.
35:18
Speaker 1: Fish What do you have a power rated at right now?
35:21
Speaker 1: I had it three, so like that's what I assume
35:23
Speaker 1: the books would just open at that and just let
35:25
Speaker 1: the public betted up or down, let them decide. Instead,
35:28
Speaker 1: they opened it heavy. Pittsburgh. Money has come flying in
35:31
Speaker 1: on Pittsburgh. I bet the ticket accounts coming on Pittsburgh,
35:34
Speaker 1: just because that's my first instance saus. I saw that number,
35:36
Speaker 1: I thought, wow, that's that's way too high. So that's
35:39
Speaker 1: one of those I bet it. I just didn't. I'm
35:41
Speaker 1: not gonna you know, I might have put two grain
35:43
Speaker 1: on it right now. I might bet more later in
35:45
Speaker 1: the week, but right now I'm just holding off because
35:46
Speaker 1: I don't really trust this number. Carolina Panthers at Miami Dolphins.
35:52
Speaker 1: The Panthers are one and a half point favorites. Don't
35:57
Speaker 1: say anything yet. I'm gonna tell you right now, howably
36:00
Speaker 1: not been in the Dolphins here. Really well, I'm shock
36:03
Speaker 1: they're gonna come on the Panthers. I like the Panthers here,
36:05
Speaker 1: coming off a loss, playing in Miami team that's one
36:07
Speaker 1: two in a row. Now they're feeling good. That was
36:12
Speaker 1: I mean, I watched that game because for some reason,
36:13
Speaker 1: I bet a bunch of money on Miami. I just
36:16
Speaker 1: hate Joe Flacker that much. I guess man, Miami's got issues.
36:19
Speaker 1: Their defense is getting a little better. But against this
36:21
Speaker 1: Carolina team, I love that run, that running style against
36:25
Speaker 1: the defense that you know they give up the run Miami,
36:28
Speaker 1: that's that's when the things they're not good against. So
36:30
Speaker 1: it's I'm leading towards Carolina, but mean you were split
36:34
Speaker 1: on this, will probably stay away from It's not one
36:36
Speaker 1: of my favorite five anyway. But to me, it's just
36:40
Speaker 1: I would like to fade this Miami team after a
36:42
Speaker 1: couple of big wins because again, I just it's hard
36:47
Speaker 1: for me to really believe in this Miami team to
36:49
Speaker 1: tow it just hasn't put it together enough games consistently
36:51
Speaker 1: where I'm like, Okay, I really believe in what I've seen.
36:53
Speaker 1: This guy get a couple of really bad turnovers against
36:55
Speaker 1: that Jets team, So to me, this is ah I
36:58
Speaker 1: would either take Carolina or just that one. Interesting. I
37:03
Speaker 1: looked at this and thought, and I saw to his numbers,
37:06
Speaker 1: and I saw a little bit of the game, and
37:08
Speaker 1: I felt like he's starting to make better throws. It's
37:10
Speaker 1: not just a Dincon Duck kind of thing he's thrown for.
37:13
Speaker 1: He's completing high percentage of his passes and this defense
37:17
Speaker 1: is pretty good, and like Kim was terrible, like completely ineffective.
37:21
Speaker 1: So it just felt like I'm getting the home team
37:24
Speaker 1: as a underdog here. You're right, and the transfavor what
37:28
Speaker 1: you're saying too, like Flores has been really good against
37:30
Speaker 1: the spread at home as a home dog. But just
37:33
Speaker 1: like last night with Tampa, sometimes you got a zig
37:35
Speaker 1: and zag against these trends. And I saw the stats
37:37
Speaker 1: Tom Brady oh five against the Giants, Tom Brady oh
37:41
Speaker 1: and seven on Prime Time. Eventually it always comes back around.
37:44
Speaker 1: So this is one of these where I do think
37:45
Speaker 1: they dropping here against Carolina team that really needs this one. Alright.
37:50
Speaker 1: A classic Don Crickey, Todd Christiansen late afternoon NBC Games,
37:57
Speaker 1: shout out to the children of the eighties who know
38:00
Speaker 1: exactly what I'm talking about. Los Angeles Chargers at Denver Broncos,
38:06
Speaker 1: Chargers two and a half point favorites. Simon says, I
38:10
Speaker 1: bet the Denver Broncos, Denver Broncos. Why you know why
38:25
Speaker 1: we love Teddy. Teddy is a dog. Teddy is what
38:28
Speaker 1: it was, the nineteen and three against the spread as
38:30
Speaker 1: a dog in his last twenty two something crazy like that.
38:32
Speaker 1: Just anytime Teddy's dog, we bet it even better here
38:35
Speaker 1: we're getting great matchups. You have a Denver team that
38:38
Speaker 1: wants to run the ball. They have a two headed
38:40
Speaker 1: monster against a Chargers team that cannot stop the run.
38:43
Speaker 1: They're just so bad against the run. Their secondary still
38:47
Speaker 1: has a couple of issues where you know, I say
38:49
Speaker 1: what you want about Teddy, he can't get the ball downfield.
38:52
Speaker 1: They have a lot of speedy weapons that team. He
38:54
Speaker 1: can get it really, really really out of his hands fast,
38:57
Speaker 1: where like Bosa, all this pressure coming from the Charge
39:00
Speaker 1: shouldn't matter. So a divisional game home dog in Denver,
39:04
Speaker 1: I love it. Love the plus three And the reason
39:06
Speaker 1: I'm saying sim says, I think pros are gonna bet
39:08
Speaker 1: this down. I could see this game closing as a
39:10
Speaker 1: pick um. This is gonna be on the Sharper bet
39:12
Speaker 1: games for professionals this week. So I love Denver in
39:15
Speaker 1: this position. I'm totally with you. A lot of times
39:20
Speaker 1: you look at the board and you try to think
39:22
Speaker 1: about what the sharp games are gonna be, and for
39:24
Speaker 1: whatever reason, like the Broncos are never one of those
39:26
Speaker 1: teams that pops up. You know, if you were looking
39:29
Speaker 1: at this board, I think people would be more likely
39:31
Speaker 1: to say that the Colts are going to be sharp,
39:35
Speaker 1: or the Giants are potentially going to be sharp, or
39:40
Speaker 1: even the Steelers are going to be sharp. But I
39:42
Speaker 1: agree with you, like everyone's gonna look at this and
39:44
Speaker 1: look at the Broncos and think this is the side. Yeah.
39:48
Speaker 1: Especially it jumped out to where it was like I
39:51
Speaker 1: feel like it was Sunday there and maybe it was
39:52
Speaker 1: like Monday morning, two am, just like multiple different people
39:55
Speaker 1: reaching out to be like you already hit this Broncos line,
39:58
Speaker 1: and it's just like, Okay, that's that's that's the play
40:00
Speaker 1: this week. So that was one of those where I
40:02
Speaker 1: I bet it early hasn't really moved much, which has
40:05
Speaker 1: made me a little nervous because I thought for sure
40:07
Speaker 1: they'd bump it down because again, we talked all the
40:10
Speaker 1: time the books, they like traps all the time, and
40:14
Speaker 1: this looks like one of those games that they're gonna
40:15
Speaker 1: get a lot of money coming in on the Chargers
40:18
Speaker 1: and they're gonna keep it at that three or maybe
40:20
Speaker 1: even drop it out two and a half. Those are
40:22
Speaker 1: kind of the signals you're looking forward. It's like, Okay,
40:24
Speaker 1: we're death on the right side here with this Charger's
40:26
Speaker 1: team in Minnesota, Vikings at San Francisco forty Niners. This
40:31
Speaker 1: is seems to me to be a perfectly lined game
40:35
Speaker 1: with the Niners. Uh they are right now three point favorites.
40:39
Speaker 1: Seem no edge here in either direction. Yeah, I want
40:43
Speaker 1: to take the Vikings, but I feel like I feel
40:46
Speaker 1: like I'm playing with fire here. I've just backed them
40:48
Speaker 1: so many weeks in a row. Now it's probably time
40:51
Speaker 1: to get off the train. Like this is their peak,
40:53
Speaker 1: highest level of and the value is it's not terrible value.
40:57
Speaker 1: They're like looking at a plus three, it's that's a
40:59
Speaker 1: good that's the number one. You really have the plus
41:01
Speaker 1: three in the minus three. But um with you, it's
41:04
Speaker 1: just it's a good line. That's what I made. I
41:06
Speaker 1: think I made it two and a half, or maybe
41:07
Speaker 1: I didn't make it too but I just there's not
41:11
Speaker 1: enough of Uh. Yeah, like you just said that, these
41:13
Speaker 1: teams are pretty pretty equal the line. There's not that
41:16
Speaker 1: much value on taking the three, So I would probably
41:18
Speaker 1: pass on this long. If it got to three and
41:20
Speaker 1: a half, I would take the Vikings. At three and
41:21
Speaker 1: a half, I would like that. Yeah, that would be
41:23
Speaker 1: really nice, But at three it doesn't feel like there's
41:26
Speaker 1: that much value. This is why we're missing the Thursday
41:29
Speaker 1: Pith this week, whise a bummer. This is a game
41:31
Speaker 1: that would move and it's a game we would talk about,
41:34
Speaker 1: and especially this week, all these short lines, like all
41:37
Speaker 1: these threes, I can't remember a week, especially this season,
41:40
Speaker 1: we've seen so many home dogs at three, or so
41:42
Speaker 1: many home favorites at minus three. It's it's a very
41:46
Speaker 1: low low number week. Yeah, it's strange. It's really strange
41:50
Speaker 1: speaking of low low number week. Los Angeles Rams at
41:55
Speaker 1: Green Bay Packers. Let's say the Rams are one point dogs.
42:00
Speaker 1: Let's say that you're bff Chatty kind of likes the
42:05
Speaker 1: Rams here? Do you really? I don't. It's still something's
42:10
Speaker 1: just wrong. They're like Stafford hasn't played well in two weeks.
42:14
Speaker 1: I would love for this to be a get right
42:15
Speaker 1: spot for him, but he just in his career, even
42:18
Speaker 1: on the lines, he never played well at Lambeau. There's
42:21
Speaker 1: just something about an indoor quarterback going outside. Already have
42:24
Speaker 1: question marks with Matthew Stafford. The only thing going to
42:27
Speaker 1: your favor right now is to me, is this COVID
42:29
Speaker 1: toe or whatever Aaron Rodgers dealing with, which, again, that's
42:32
Speaker 1: a real thing. People supposed to have gotten this COVID
42:34
Speaker 1: toe and it's like turf toe, but way worse, and
42:39
Speaker 1: he's really dealing with it. But last week he looked
42:41
Speaker 1: pretty damn good. So I'll wait and see what the
42:43
Speaker 1: injury report is for this game. We'll see if Aaron
42:46
Speaker 1: Jones is back. We'll see if Alexander's back for the
42:48
Speaker 1: secondary with Green Bay. But yeah, usually a West Coast
42:52
Speaker 1: team going outdoors up to frozen Lambeau. If this is
42:56
Speaker 1: under three, every time, I'll take Green Bay. So I'll
42:58
Speaker 1: wait and see what this number is. Don't think it's
43:00
Speaker 1: gone up to that point. So, no matter what, I think,
43:02
Speaker 1: you're gonna abou to get good value on the screen
43:03
Speaker 1: Bay team that was COVID too. Apparently it's a real thing.
43:08
Speaker 1: That's what Aaron Rodgers apparently has this COVID toe. But
43:10
Speaker 1: you know what, I could be fooled by Internet once again,
43:12
Speaker 1: but I heard on Howard Stern, so I trusted. Oh,
43:14
Speaker 1: come on, have I told you that? You know that
43:19
Speaker 1: I've written seven books. Four of them are best sellers.
43:22
Speaker 1: Chad Melman wrote a book and one of those best
43:27
Speaker 1: sellers is They Call Me Baba Booie, which I co
43:32
Speaker 1: authored with Gary Delabate. I was the ghost writer for
43:36
Speaker 1: Gary Delabat's autobiography. He's the only guy on that show
43:40
Speaker 1: I think I hate. I hate Gary, Dude, you can't
43:43
Speaker 1: hate Gary. I do. He's such a tool. You know,
43:47
Speaker 1: you think Aaron Rodgers is a tool. I think that
43:49
Speaker 1: guy Gary is a giant tool. He is you. You
43:52
Speaker 1: spend five minutes with the guy. He is the nicest,
43:57
Speaker 1: most sincere, most authent dick. Like just in thirty five
44:04
Speaker 1: years of working on the Howard Stern Show, he is
44:08
Speaker 1: as sort of open to possibility and excited about making
44:15
Speaker 1: connections as he was when he was twenty four years
44:17
Speaker 1: old and had a passion for radio and like listening
44:20
Speaker 1: to Stern while he was a producer at NBC, like
44:23
Speaker 1: there's nothing His wife is lovely, Like he's just a
44:27
Speaker 1: wonderful guy. There's nothing not to like about him. I
44:30
Speaker 1: bet he is. I'm just like I listened to Stern
44:32
Speaker 1: for assholes, like I used to love already back in
44:34
Speaker 1: the day, beetle juice, Like I know all that stuff
44:37
Speaker 1: is terrible nowadays, that was where my glory is, like
44:40
Speaker 1: the late nineties, early two thousands. That's why I just
44:42
Speaker 1: love sterns so it's nothing against him. I just I
44:44
Speaker 1: like assholes. That's why I listened to that show. Interesting
44:48
Speaker 1: says so much about you. Let's talk about Cleveland Browns
44:52
Speaker 1: at Baltimore Ravens. The Ravens are what does it look like?
44:57
Speaker 1: Three and a half point favorites right now? Yeah, on right,
45:01
Speaker 1: just on the record show my favorite shows, Always Sunny
45:04
Speaker 1: Those are the biggest asses in the world. Chat so
45:05
Speaker 1: people know the love that show. Um, what are we doing?
45:10
Speaker 1: Always the Always Sunny Boys? Right now? Talk about podcasts.
45:14
Speaker 1: The Always Sunny Boys released a podcast, the first for
45:17
Speaker 1: the first time, like three weeks ago. It is now
45:19
Speaker 1: beating Joe Rogan as the most downloaded podcast on Spotify
45:24
Speaker 1: Have you listened to it yet? No? I haven't listened
45:26
Speaker 1: to it. It's amazing. Like the first episode, Charlie Davis
45:29
Speaker 1: complained about eating too much cheese and feeling sick like
45:31
Speaker 1: it's just hilarious and he's not even doing a character.
45:33
Speaker 1: That's who he is. It's so good. It's such a
45:36
Speaker 1: good show. Let's get a pep talk for Frank Reynolds.
45:40
Speaker 1: This is pathetic, this is awful. We've all been humiliated.
45:45
Speaker 1: Our asses are destroyed. Book If Life pushes you down.
45:51
Speaker 1: You gotta push back. If you're dumped a bunch of
45:54
Speaker 1: women's you gotta take those lemons and stuffing down somebody's
45:58
Speaker 1: throw until I see on. You gotta do the only
46:01
Speaker 1: thing that's less I do. Yeah, what is it? Well, uh,
46:07
Speaker 1: day's the limit stuff And then's my train of thought.
46:12
Speaker 1: Let's go back to the bar. I have no idea
46:14
Speaker 1: what to make of this Browns Ravens match up. Like,
46:17
Speaker 1: my first thing I want to do is take the
46:18
Speaker 1: Browns of plus four because both these teams have major injuries.
46:23
Speaker 1: We don't know what's going on with Lamar. Like in
46:25
Speaker 1: the history of quarterbacks, is a quarterback ever gone sick
46:28
Speaker 1: more often Lamar? Like I I can remember him missing
46:30
Speaker 1: other games being sick, not COVID related, Like he just
46:33
Speaker 1: gets sick, So no clue, like if he really had
46:37
Speaker 1: the flu and he's been that bad that he was
46:38
Speaker 1: out all week and he missed the game this week
46:41
Speaker 1: until I see him on the practice field. I'm not
46:42
Speaker 1: putting a dime onto this Ravens team, but if it,
46:45
Speaker 1: if it comes Sunday and he's playing and this number
46:48
Speaker 1: is still at four, I will take the Ravens baker
46:52
Speaker 1: he just does not look right like he had. He
46:54
Speaker 1: looked all x start that game, and he had one
46:56
Speaker 1: hit from that Detroit Lion defense. The rest of the game,
46:59
Speaker 1: he was just off, could not complete throw. So I
47:03
Speaker 1: think Colin Coward talked about it, He's cost himself a
47:06
Speaker 1: lot of money, Baker, and I agree with him. He's
47:08
Speaker 1: he's cost himself a lot of money trying to play
47:10
Speaker 1: through this injury the last couple of weeks. So I'm
47:13
Speaker 1: off of it. I'm I'll stay away from this game
47:15
Speaker 1: until I know more info. Would you say that Lamar Jackson,
47:19
Speaker 1: because of his illnesses, is the Charlie Day of any quarterbacks? No,
47:27
Speaker 1: I can't. Can't put them that came fut them that low.
47:31
Speaker 1: I often get texts from people sending me a picture
47:36
Speaker 1: of Glenn Howardtson saying that we look alike. I actually
47:43
Speaker 1: see a little bit. Yeah, like when your closed mouth
47:46
Speaker 1: like that, you actually do look like yeah, all right,
47:49
Speaker 1: all right. Monday night football kind of kind of a
47:53
Speaker 1: stinker of the game, Seattle Seahawks at Washington Football Team.
48:05
Speaker 1: Basically even maybe the Seahawks are one point favorites. Tell
48:11
Speaker 1: me I don't have a strong opinion here, Yes, it's
48:14
Speaker 1: it's the same thing. I like again, Chad must I
48:17
Speaker 1: must get all the d ms. I remember Chad. People
48:19
Speaker 1: reach out to be saying, how did Chad bet against
48:21
Speaker 1: his best friend Colt McCoy, How could he take the Seahawks?
48:25
Speaker 1: And I told them, sometimes Chad gets caught up in
48:27
Speaker 1: the moment, he gets excited, he sees the number and
48:30
Speaker 1: he just takes it. Is your guy, and you went
48:32
Speaker 1: against him. I can't believe that. But I don't know
48:34
Speaker 1: what to make of the Seahawks. We talked to that
48:36
Speaker 1: last week. I just don't trust Russ. I've had plenty
48:38
Speaker 1: of guys reach out to me that talked to people
48:40
Speaker 1: inside the Seahawks organization. He's missing, He's missing guys nonstopping practice.
48:45
Speaker 1: We saw it again in the game. He just has
48:47
Speaker 1: this wobbly ball right now and it's nose diving on him.
48:50
Speaker 1: He keeps putting it into the ground a guy's feet.
48:52
Speaker 1: Russ does not do that. Russ does not ever kind
48:55
Speaker 1: of do those kind of throws. He's one of the
48:56
Speaker 1: most accurate pastors in the in football. So he he's
49:00
Speaker 1: not right. He just isn't. So I'll take Washington. I
49:03
Speaker 1: hate backing them they're off back to back really big wins,
49:07
Speaker 1: like that win against Tampa was huge. Now they won
49:09
Speaker 1: again against Carolina coming home. I would love to be
49:13
Speaker 1: able to fade this Washington team and take a Seahawks
49:15
Speaker 1: team that's lost was a three straight. I can't do it, though.
49:18
Speaker 1: I just can't trust for us right now to pick
49:20
Speaker 1: up first down. So I'm gonna go with Heineke. I'll
49:23
Speaker 1: back this Washington team, but this won't be one of
49:25
Speaker 1: our five. I love watching this Washington team. They're so fun.
49:31
Speaker 1: Taylor Heineke is just great to watch. Yeah, there was
49:38
Speaker 1: a few weeks ago there was a story about Taylor
49:42
Speaker 1: Heineke and having a conversation with the coaches and saying
49:46
Speaker 1: that he felt tight, that he wasn't playing his game,
49:49
Speaker 1: that he wasn't playing loose. And since then he's just
49:53
Speaker 1: been a different quarterback. No meet him, go to the
49:55
Speaker 1: same shrink. We both worked it out. Cheat. We're leting
49:57
Speaker 1: a fly now, you know for and love that huge
50:02
Speaker 1: fan of mental health. All right, so let's narrow this
50:05
Speaker 1: down here. We definitely come Sunday, we're gonna talk about
50:10
Speaker 1: the Broncos. We're going to talk about the Texans. At
50:16
Speaker 1: minus two and a half. We're going to talk about
50:18
Speaker 1: the Giants at plus four. Maybe we'll keep that one out.
50:21
Speaker 1: We're gonna talk the cold to plus two and a half.
50:23
Speaker 1: It's for a few we we might talk about the Steelers.
50:26
Speaker 1: We might talk about the Washington football team, even though
50:28
Speaker 1: they say you don't want to. We'll see what happens
50:30
Speaker 1: with the Packers. Got a lot of options here, are
50:32
Speaker 1: you ready for Scoot for Lett. We're the best betters
50:35
Speaker 1: in the world right now. So it feels to me
50:39
Speaker 1: like no matter what we do, we're probably going to
50:42
Speaker 1: go four and one or five, and now it sounds
50:43
Speaker 1: about right. I don't believe in jinx is. I don't
50:46
Speaker 1: believe in not being able to say stuff out loud.
50:50
Speaker 1: What I believe in is that if you want something,
50:52
Speaker 1: you have to say it out loud. You gotta vision it,
50:54
Speaker 1: you gotta see it before you or what is it
50:56
Speaker 1: Chadiff at the saying you gotta see it to believe it.
51:00
Speaker 1: Time to take down the hops. When all hope is lost,
51:06
Speaker 1: all this left is relief. Let's play coach rolette, alright,
51:15
Speaker 1: So then I get to keep winning. I get to
51:16
Speaker 1: go first again, because it all rolls over and I'm
51:19
Speaker 1: the best better in the world and for that reason alone.
51:22
Speaker 1: Give me the Denver Broncos. I knew you're gonna do
51:28
Speaker 1: that plus two and a half against the Charges any
51:34
Speaker 1: covers baby Denver Broncos. Um, all right, I'll go Giants
51:40
Speaker 1: against my Eagles. It's like this is a great spot
51:42
Speaker 1: for them getting three and a half or four, So
51:45
Speaker 1: this is a good number to take with this Giant's team. Alright,
51:48
Speaker 1: Teddy covers Broncos plus you got the I got the
51:52
Speaker 1: Broncos two and a half, you got the Giants plus four.
51:57
Speaker 1: We'll do We'll do the money line money line around
51:59
Speaker 1: Rob and just because people love it. It's been cashing
52:02
Speaker 1: for him. Now this is this is gonna be as
52:05
Speaker 1: good as it was the last couple of weeks, obviously,
52:07
Speaker 1: because we got a bunch of short home dogs. So
52:10
Speaker 1: let's start off with a very tasty Giants at home.
52:16
Speaker 1: Then we'll go with the Colts at home, go the
52:19
Speaker 1: Broncos at home. I'll take Minnesota on the road because
52:23
Speaker 1: we like we just said that seems like a coin
52:24
Speaker 1: flip kind of game, Like I really want to put
52:27
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh in there. Should we just do that? All right?
52:30
Speaker 1: That's that's a good five. All right. We kind of
52:32
Speaker 1: nailed It's Tuesday's show. We're giving a lot of We're
52:35
Speaker 1: giving people a lot to wait for it. Chew on
52:39
Speaker 1: over to the Thanksgiving holiday. I must do you, hear me.
52:44
Speaker 1: I want to wish everybody a great Thanksgiving. We're thankful
52:48
Speaker 1: for our listeners, both old and new. We're thankful for
52:54
Speaker 1: the comments. We're thankful for the feedback, and Simon the
52:59
Speaker 1: last thing we got to talk about out. We did
53:01
Speaker 1: have one comment with me you and Matt debate the
53:03
Speaker 1: other day. Someone d M me and said, I sound
53:06
Speaker 1: like an idiot when I say love you at the
53:10
Speaker 1: end of the podcast, and I'm too old for that
53:12
Speaker 1: now and I shouldn't say it anymore. And I kind
53:15
Speaker 1: of agreed that it. I've been feeling weird saying in
53:18
Speaker 1: the past couple of weeks. I don't know why. And
53:20
Speaker 1: then you and Matt Mitchell came in strong that it
53:22
Speaker 1: absolutely has to remain as the tagline. Yeah, I feel
53:25
Speaker 1: like that's been your tagline for forever. I mean, how long?
53:29
Speaker 1: How how long did you start this this podcast exactly?
53:32
Speaker 1: We relaunched The Favorites September of two thousand eighteen, Like
53:38
Speaker 1: I'm talking when did you start way before that? Oh? Well,
53:40
Speaker 1: I I launched behind the bets at ESPN, and like
53:43
Speaker 1: two thousand I might have stumbled upon your show maybe then,
53:47
Speaker 1: And even then you said love you. I know exactly
53:50
Speaker 1: when I said it. I started saying it in two
53:52
Speaker 1: thousand eighteen with the Favorites because Matt Ford, who was
53:55
Speaker 1: a producer on the show, producer with the company called
53:58
Speaker 1: Blue Duck that we do a lot of work if
54:00
Speaker 1: their fantastic production company. He was working on the show.
54:03
Speaker 1: He ended a show one time as a guest host
54:06
Speaker 1: and he said love you. I just thought it was cute,
54:09
Speaker 1: and so I picked it up. So it's a thing.
54:11
Speaker 1: You stole a tagline, damn it, Matt Mitchell. I felt
54:15
Speaker 1: like a guy emails you and goes, hey, Chad, that'll
54:18
Speaker 1: be fine if you forgot where you came from, and
54:20
Speaker 1: you said, ah, good point. That's a good that's a
54:23
Speaker 1: good point. I should do that. So I didn't. I
54:24
Speaker 1: didn't care for that attitude. Well, the love you thing,
54:27
Speaker 1: that might be the only time someone in the whole
54:29
Speaker 1: day we'll hear someone say to them love you. So
54:31
Speaker 1: I feel like that's why he should leave it in.
54:33
Speaker 1: You know, it's nice to hear every once in a while.
54:35
Speaker 1: You know what we did it, We debated it. We're
54:37
Speaker 1: gonna stick with it. If people have something better, then
54:39
Speaker 1: they can they can send it in. Our d m
54:41
Speaker 1: s are open. This has been the favorites from the
54:44
Speaker 1: Volume Podcast Network. I am Chad Nolman. He is Simon Hunter.
54:47
Speaker 1: We are thankful for all of you. Download the podcast
54:50
Speaker 1: at Apple podcast that Spotify make us number one on Spotify.
54:54
Speaker 1: We could catch the always sunny guys. I love those
54:56
Speaker 1: guys until next week. I love you