Latest / Sports Avenue Twisted Podcast / Episode 72 feat. Eli Ben-Porat - Not Top 100 Prospects, Tony Blanco Jr. ,MLB ROY Candidates

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Episode 72 feat. Eli Ben-Porat - Not Top 100 Prospects, Tony Blanco Jr. ,MLB ROY Candidates · Sports Avenue Twisted Podcast

• 0:26
  Music. Welcome to another edition of
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  Sports Ave. Twisted podcast.
• 0:30
  We have a returning guest in here and he's he has the
• 0:33
  expertise to cover prospects and he's a contributor to Baseball
• 0:38
  America and he's a returning guest.
• 0:40
  So we appreciate him being on in this episode.
• 0:43
  Eli Ben Porat, welcome to the episode.
• 0:47
  It's honor to for you to have you back on.
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  Thank. You for having me?
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  Yeah, we're excited to have you, man, talk about a lot of the
• 0:54
  prospects coming up in baseball. And yeah, it's just an exciting
• 0:59
  time to have baseball back. So great time to have you on.
• 1:02
  Thanks for joining us. Right, so you promised me I'd
• 1:05
  get to talk about Tony Blanco, because apparently I talk about
• 1:08
  him every time. So I was tuning into Spring
• 1:14
  break, one of the spring breakout games, and then Tony
• 1:16
  Blanco was on. I'm like, man, I really want to
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  watch this guy. Because usually when you see
• 1:21
  your clips, it's like on your phone or like it's so small.
• 1:24
  You don't really get a feel for, you know, just how gargantuan of
• 1:28
  a human he is. And then, you know, you watch it
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  on your TV with a big with a big screen and you get a better
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  sense of the kind of athlete that he is.
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  And. Yeah.
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  Like first pitch fastball up in the zone, he misses it by like 3
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  feet, but my eyes popped out of my head like that.
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  Bat speed was enormous. Like potentially potentially
• 1:54
  faster than Gian Carlo Stanton. Like that's that's the kind of
• 1:57
  vibes. Again, I again, I'm not an
• 1:58
  expert at judging batsby with my eye.
• 2:01
  No, I ever trust my eye to judge bat speed.
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  But like, I've seen a lot of major leaguers swing bats and he
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  swings it harder than probably any of them.
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  Wow. And then and then let's say then
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  the next wing, same thing. And then third swing, he hits a
• 2:18
  home run on like AB swing, but he, you know, barely, even,
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  barely even Swan Guard and just goes out, you know, kind of like
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  an O'Neill cruise thing. So yeah, and The thing is that
• 2:29
  the Pirates always get hyped up about these prospects, but we
• 2:31
  could get into all that. But let's let's reflect on some
• 2:35
  of the past non top 100 players that you mentioned in the past,
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  like the August of Ramirez, that Ivan Herrera is, the Dylan
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  Beavers, the Louise Hills and so on and so forth.
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  And you talked about it and now you look at it now heading into
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  2026, could those guys been considered as top 100 prospects?
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  Or do you think those guys just fit right where they're at and
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  they're still being contributors to their teams?
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  You mean like back back in 2024? Should they have been tough?
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  And 25, yeah. And if you reflect back today,
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  should they be even be considered top 100 prospects?
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  I think Agustin Ramirez should have been like his.
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  His data was superb, like all the way through.
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  And I think on a lot of these lists, there's a lot of inertia.
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  So if a guy's is like 20-3 years old and he's basically been off
• 3:30
  the radio for a lot of time, for a long time, they don't usually
• 3:34
  get vaulted up just because they had one good season, even if the
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  data like backs it up. Because there's always like
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  that, like inertia, hesitancy. But his like his exit velocities
• 3:47
  and zone contact were just amazing.
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  And like, for me, he was the guy I had the most confidence in.
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  Yvonne Herrera maybe, maybe not. He was kind of similar to
• 4:00
  Agustin Ramirez in that in that kind of sense.
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  And then you could probably make a case.
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  Dylan Beavers was probably close at the time to a top 100
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  prospect. Maybe, you know, like, because
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  like there's a public conception of, you know, like there's like
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  a 100 good prospects in the world.
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  And after that there's like a Cliff and everybody else is in
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  the Grand Canyon. And it's not it's, it's nowhere
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  near that. It's like there's the top one or
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  two 3-4 prospects of baseball in the top 15 and in the top 50,
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  and after that it's like a gentle slope where the number 70
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  got five guy and the number 175 guy.
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  There's not really a whole lot of difference and a slight
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  change in value in either direction and you can flip those
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  two guys. Let's Fast forward to this
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  year's list and you have a guy in there, one of the catchers at
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  the Tigers in their system, Eduardo Valencia.
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  How does he stand with regards to their system?
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  Because right now they have Dylan Dingler on the main roster
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  who is relatively young, new, newer player.
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  And then they Ron Lorenzo in the minor leagues, who is one of
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  their top 10 prospects in their system.
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  So where does he fit long term and what's his profile like?
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  So my opinion is I'm I'm all out in Tyrone Leonzo.
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  His season last year was atrocious.
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  I don't know what happened to him, so I I don't know where
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  he's going to be long term. Eduardo Valencia, I think fits
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  their team perfectly in that he's he's not very good
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  defensively. The few plays a song make in the
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  spring breakout game, like his arm isn't that great, not that
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  accurate. Again, I'm I'm not I haven't
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  watched, you know, 1000 of his games behind the plate, but none
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  of his scouting reports suggest that he's a plus defender behind
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  the plate. But he can catch and he should
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  be able to hit. So Dylan Dingler is one of the
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  best defensive catchers in baseball.
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  So you want him behind the plate.
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  Yeah, 120 a 130 games a year. So sticking Valencia behind
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  there for another third for 30 games behind the plate and then
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  TH Inger filling in where where applicable.
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  Think it's a is a perfect fit for for where the Tigers are at
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  right now. Let's talk about Ernesto
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  Martinez and knowing the Yankees situation like they like to
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  profile power hits and he has a eighty grade power not really
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  ranked the Yankees farm system. And when you look at other guys
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  in the system, like you talked about Aaron Judge in your
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  article briefly about, but another guy who hits for power
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  but hasn't been up because I don't know if it has to do with
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  the strikeout rate. The way the situation with the
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  outfielders is Spencer Jones and talk about those comps and can
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  is there any possible way that he could be part of the Yankees
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  situation when it when it comes to his bat?
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  Very unlikely, but there's a there's a huge caveat there.
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  So with Spencer Jones two years ago, he was kind of like Jordan
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  Walker with less contact. So he would hit the hit the ball
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  as hard as anyone, but it was all ground contact, which is
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  just a waste. So that's the big problem with
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  the Neil Cruz. And then he made a
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  transformation, which I've seen on, I don't know, I can't even
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  think of any other prospects that have made the
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  transformation. But he changed his swing and
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  he's and he's now getting great launch angles, which I cannot
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  stress enough how important that is for a power hitter.
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  If if you're like an average power guy, I really don't care
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  about your launch angles. Maybe even lower launch angles
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  are better because you can get a higher batting average.
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  But for Gary Spencer Jones, you can afford to strike out 30% of
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  the time if most of your contacts in the air because when
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  you get in the air, you can hit home runs.
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  And if you look at Spencer Jones's batting lines, like he
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  is producing, despite the fact that he is his own contact is
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  abysmal. That's the simple fact that now,
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  contrary to what he was doing beforehand, is hitting the ball
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  in the air. And that's kind of my thesis
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  with Ernesto Martinez junior. If he doesn't change anything,
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  he's not going to make the major leagues because you can hit the
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  ball as hard as you want. If you don't have any defensive
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  value and most of your hard contacts in the ground there,
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  there isn't a lot of playing time available.
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  Yeah. And with him it's it's like, let
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  me ask you this quickly here. It's it's what is his flaws is,
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  is he a strikeout problem? Because if you look at his
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  metrics, the way you charted that like there's different
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  variables of the way he he attacks his own right.
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  Like what seems to be the bigger issue for him for him to.
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  It's launch angle. So the, the, the core principle
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  that I, that I talk about a lot is, is I've always put two
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  velocity metrics and two launch angle metrics.
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  So I'm going to go on a bit of a rant here in, in the metric
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  world, everyone seems to love air pull percent.
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  Now I may be on an island here and perhaps me and Tom Tango on
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  the island here. I don't like air pull percent as
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  a metric because if you take a guy like Aaron Judge or Nick
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  Kurtz or James Wood or any of these guys that have like 80,
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  you know, 7580 great power, they don't have high air pull
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  percentages. They don't want air pull
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  percent. They just want to hit the ball
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  hard in the air. Guys like Alex Bregman, you
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  know, who have very little power and they need to optimize that.
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  Sure. And air pull percent might help
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  them optimize their game. But leaning of itself, a good
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  air pro percent might not be better.
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  And I would even argue that if a batter is optimizing for air
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  pull percent because the metrics guys are saying air pull percent
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  is good, that's going to make them early on pitches and make
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  them more susceptible to, you know, to change ups and off
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  speed pitches because they're going to be early because
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  they're trying to get out in front.
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  So whether having a good air pro percentage is something you want
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  to optimize for or not, I don't necessarily believe it.
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  All that being said, what I do find to be extremely indicative
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  of success is the hard hit launch angle, especially if the
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  hard hit launch angle is higher than the average launch angle.
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  Similarly, if their fly ball exit velocity is higher than
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  their average exit velocity, that's also a very good
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  indicator that their best contact is coming in the air.
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  And that's the recipe for hitting lots of home runs.
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  So if you look at Ernesto Martinez, you'll see that that
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  there's there's 2 problems #1 despite the fact that his 90th
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  percent of exit velocity and maximum exit velocity, which are
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  good captures of raw power, are roughly at that think translates
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  to like 75 or 80 grade. So basically every two miles an
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  hour above average, you can translate to like one grade of
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  power. So he's almost 7 or 6.
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  That's like 3 gauge above. That's almost an 80 raw power
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  compared to other major leaguers.
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  Despite that he's only averaging 90 miles an hour on his batted
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  balls, which is a major red flag in and of itself because it
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  means he isn't squaring it up. He isn't getting to that power
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  consistently. Like if you look at Kevin
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  Mcgonagall, he's like the inverse where he's on average
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  hit the ball harder, but his Max exit below is almost like 8-9
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  mph below below Ernesto Martinez.
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  And then compounding that, his fly ball exit velocity is even
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  below his average exit velocity, which means that when he's
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  getting in the air, he's almost useless.
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  And then you can have all the power in the world.
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  If your fly ball exit velocity is only 86 miles an hour, you're
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  not going to hit very many home runs.
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  So, so Long story short, he needs a swing change and he
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  needs to have his best contact come in the air.
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  And even if he has to sacrifice 10 points of contact, it will
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  all be worth it. And my, my assumption is, is
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  that the Yankees got in with that ethos in mind that they're
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  going to try to help him change his wing.
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  And if it works out, great. And if it didn't, you know the
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  the opportunity cost is not really all that high.
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  You know, Hedrick Penango is a is a guy that an outfielder Blue
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  Jays acquired an innate Pearson deal a couple years ago and he
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  comes over and you know, he shows that potential and and
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  last year was a bit of a down year for him.
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  But how does he profile and how would you compare them to the
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  other Jays outfielders in a system like RJ Shrek and
• 12:44
  Jonathan Class A? Yeah, I don't, I don't believe
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  in Shrek or Class A. They don't have the like Shrek
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  is nice that he optimized. Like he's super optimized.
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  He doesn't chase. He hits the ball in the air, but
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  he doesn't have the raw power to to make it all come together.
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  Like he needs like an extra one or two mile per hour, one or two
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  mph bat speed to make it all work.
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  And then Pinago is like an extension of Ernesto Martinez
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  junior. He's got the same, the same
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  exact flaw, but he's but it's less pronounced than with
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  Ernesto Martinez junior. And that he can like his own
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  contact is above average. He doesn't chase.
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  He can make he can make contact out of the zone, but his flyball
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  exit velocity is 85.7 mph And that's like even below I think
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  Justin Crawford. I think Justin Crawford also is
• 13:40
  like has like a higher fly ball is velocity.
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  So Pinango desperately needs a swing change.
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  Even without a swing change, he might be a serviceable major
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  leaguers because he hits the ball so hard and he makes a lot
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  of contact. But more and more and the more I
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  write about this, the more I analyze prospects and the
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  pattern I see very clearly is that exit velocity gets all the
• 14:10
  attention and praise. And you know, it's very easy to
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  write on Twitter. Oh, this guy hit the ball 115
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  miles an hour. But what's really important is
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  launch angle. And it's the, it's the death
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  spell for all these prospects that hit the ball really hard
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  but don't, don't get in the air. So I'm going to sound like a
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  very much of a broken record, but that's the it's, it's, it's
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  the most important thing for any power prospect.
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  Right. There's two prospects that I
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  want to talk about. The Astro system that you've
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  talked briefly about is Bryce Matthews, who's the Astros third
• 14:47
  best prospect. And Zach Coles had a cup of
• 14:49
  coffee last year, showed a little bit promise.
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  And how do you look at those two?
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  Because I know that Bryce Matthews is known for being a
• 14:58
  fly ball hitter. And Zach Cole, it seems like he
• 15:01
  has a little bit better of a profile than Bryce Matthews.
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  Like how do you cop those two? And I think Matthews is still
• 15:08
  competing for that final roster spot.
• 15:10
  We'll see where that goes. But like, how do you profile
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  those two and where those guys can fit if they were to be on
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  the Astros roster? Both like super high upside
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  prospects that I think are undervalued.
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  I don't know if it's like a Houston Astros thing that they
• 15:27
  don't get enough attention, but Bryce Matthews, he put up like a
• 15:33
  73 mile per hour bat speed. So it was like 60th percentile.
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  He gets the beautiful launch angles.
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  Didn't make, you know, a lot of contact questions.
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  So major whiffs in both in AAA and in the majors.
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  But his exit velocity profile is beautiful.
• 15:52
  Like he makes better contact in the air, you know, 3 miles, 3
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  mph above average. He's he's an exceptional
• 16:00
  athlete, 2929 miles per hours, 29 feet per second, not 29 mph,
• 16:05
  that'll be pretty bad. 29 feet per second Sprint speed.
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  So there's a, there's a lot to like, but his he whiffs a lot.
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  And those guys, in order to succeed, really need a lot of
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  runway and patience. And it doesn't sound like the
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  Astros are going to give it to him.
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  So it's tough. Maybe they, you know, should
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  they keep them up in the majors or do they give them more time
• 16:33
  in AAA? Because I don't like, I don't
• 16:35
  like sending guys back to AAA for too long.
• 16:39
  I had this theory with Kobe Mayo that the Orioles overcooked him
• 16:44
  and he kept on seeing more and more AAA quality pitches.
• 16:49
  And that makes it harder because then your, your brain is, is now
• 16:52
  computing AAA pitches too much and then you're it makes it
• 16:55
  harder to transition to the major leagues.
• 16:58
  It's a pet theory of mine. I don't know if it's true.
• 17:01
  Michael Bush was in AAA for like 17 years and he's doing great
• 17:05
  now. So I don't know.
• 17:09
  But it's it's kind of like a theory I have in mind.
• 17:12
  I'd rather see him just be in the majors and and you know,
• 17:16
  only see Major League pitching and train the major leaguers.
• 17:20
  But then you don't want a young guy to not get all the reps So
• 17:24
  huge upside. You could make a case that he
• 17:26
  should be a top 100 prospect. He hits the ball plenty hard.
• 17:32
  Like his battable profile is clearly top 100 worthy.
• 17:36
  He has the potential to be a very good fielder, like it takes
• 17:41
  a lot of boxes and there's a lot of guys in the top 100 list that
• 17:44
  I would rather have him over those guys.
• 17:48
  How do you how do you compare that to Cam Smith?
• 17:51
  Because when you look at Cam Smith, right, he was, I believe,
• 17:54
  the 14th pick in the 2024 draft, same draft as Nick Kurtz, right?
• 17:58
  I believe. But yeah, but looking, but
• 18:00
  looking at, you know, his ex's velocity because it's up there
• 18:04
  too. But he had a problem, you know,
• 18:08
  facing facing right-handed, facing right-handed batters and
• 18:12
  they platooned them. So could you see a similar
• 18:16
  effect like with canvas as well would not giving them enough
• 18:19
  playing time similar to like the Zach Cole's and the Bryce
• 18:23
  Matthews? Possible, but I, I think they
• 18:29
  they traded for Ken Smith. They targeted at Ken Smith, but
• 18:34
  I mean, he as a rookie was mediocre.
• 18:39
  He doesn't have the same launch angle profile that that that
• 18:43
  brace, Matthew says. So who knows?
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  Like if they're going to be, if they're going to be like super
• 18:49
  cold and they don't care, then it's, it's perfectly plausible
• 18:54
  to me that would happen. Talk about some of the oh,
• 18:59
  sorry, go ahead. You don't.
• 19:00
  You don't want to. You don't want to give up on a,
• 19:03
  on a guy with Cam Smith's physical tools that quickly.
• 19:08
  You're talking 84th percentile bat speed and 95th percentile
• 19:12
  Sprint speed. And he did struggle as a rookie
• 19:16
  in the major, which a lot of guys do.
• 19:20
  But the the there's certain things that are like signatures
• 19:25
  to the batter and and guys like with a nine degree launch angle
• 19:30
  are generally speaking going to be around a nine degree launch
• 19:32
  angle. So he's not going to be a 3541
• 19:36
  hitter, even though he might have the physical tools to do
• 19:39
  that. Whereas a guy like Bryce
• 19:41
  Matthews, because he's much more optimized, might out hit Cam
• 19:46
  Smith despite theoretically inferior tools.
• 19:52
  And you mentioned you mentioned Zach Cole.
• 19:54
  If we just pop over to him, Zach Cole, you can make an argument
• 20:00
  for being. A consensus top 100 guy, 75 mile
• 20:05
  per bat speed. That's insanely good.
• 20:09
  He's playing center field. He put up an 880 OPSI think in
• 20:14
  the in his stint, I believe. Let me just make sure I'm not
• 20:20
  misleading anybody here. Yeah, he had an 880 OPS.
• 20:24
  He was an 8. You know an 870 OPS in AA.
• 20:27
  It's not like a 1200 OPS in AAA, which in small samples.
• 20:31
  So this guy hit all your hit 23 home runs last year.
• 20:35
  It's got bat speed, can play center field 2929 mile per hour
• 20:39
  Sprint. So you like how a Max EV of
• 20:42
  114.3 which is 4 mph better than the Major League average?
• 20:47
  Like how is this guy not a top 100 prospect?
• 20:50
  Like I I don't understand really.
• 20:53
  The remaining outfielders that you have on your list are some
• 20:57
  pretty intriguing ones. You have Nelson rather with the
• 21:00
  Angels, Xavier Kemp, Alderman with with the Marlins, Zach
• 21:08
  Cole, who you just talked about with the Astros, but mainly
• 21:11
  those two Alderman and and Nelson Rada talk about those two
• 21:16
  and how they profile going forward.
• 21:20
  Oh I my my favorite from this entire list is Kemp Alderman.
• 21:25
  So I think I talked about in the, in the, in the article, but
• 21:29
  if you, if you, if you gave me a choice between, I even did a
• 21:31
  poll on Twitter. I was curious.
• 21:33
  I'd bias people with my, with my charts, whether whether they
• 21:38
  would take Camp Alderman or Lazaro Montes.
• 21:40
  And I think, I think if I remember correctly, Camp
• 21:43
  Alderman won that poll. So I'm doing a good job
• 21:45
  educating my, my, my followers. But like he does everything that
• 21:53
  Lazaro Montes does, he's got the raw, he's got more raw power
• 21:57
  than Zara Montes, like his ex V lows are higher.
• 22:00
  His launch angles are perfect. His he's making plenty of
• 22:05
  contact in the zone. His swing decisions are good
• 22:09
  like and and and like he matched a AAA and he doesn't get any top
• 22:18
  100 top 100 ranks of the sixth list that I that I used.
• 22:24
  So just we should have done at the top.
• 22:27
  But basically the not 100 list means that the guy is not in any
• 22:30
  of any of Baseball America, ESPN, the athletic, fan graphs,
• 22:35
  Baseball Prospectus and perhaps one more I've forgotten.
• 22:43
  Well, an MLB pipeline that means, and I think 5 five of
• 22:47
  those six got five of those six lists had Lazaro Montes on their
• 22:51
  on their list and none of them had camp Alderman.
• 22:54
  And I think that's just playing wrong in my opinion.
• 23:01
  Am I reading this right that this guy in AAA had 100% zone
• 23:05
  contact against sinkers and cutters 100%?
• 23:10
  Yeah, but don't you never want to parse those numbers too
• 23:14
  finely? Like some guys like, like they
• 23:16
  look at the charts and they and they and they zero in on there's
• 23:19
  like this one number. So yes, sinkers and cutters,
• 23:24
  generally speaking, aren't swinging missed pitches.
• 23:27
  That's not surprising to me. You're talking about, you're
• 23:30
  talking about 67 total pitches and maybe it's like 5-5 zone
• 23:35
  swings for all we know. I don't, I don't have the, the
• 23:40
  more granular data right, right up in front of me.
• 23:43
  But what I usually look at is the 4, you know, zone contact
• 23:47
  and four Siemers. And I look at the zone contact
• 23:49
  overall. So like the number like the
• 23:51
  86.4% and the 83.3%. That means he's not, he can hit
• 23:55
  the fastball he's made, he's making damage on the fastball.
• 24:00
  And overall he's, he's making a lot of, a lot of contact.
• 24:02
  And then what I'll look at also is if like one of the one of
• 24:06
  these pitch types like this sliders and breaking balls are
• 24:09
  off speed pitches that he's woefully bad against or chasing
• 24:12
  a ton. That's kind of where the
• 24:14
  breakdown I I like to look at. So you see like chase wing, like
• 24:18
  off speed pitches. He's not chasing a lot of a lot
• 24:22
  of change UPS, but breaking balls like curve balls and
• 24:25
  sweepers, he is chasing those. But even when he's chasing them,
• 24:29
  he is kind of making good contact on that.
• 24:31
  So I don't know if Kemp Alderman is going to get a chance of
• 24:34
  Miami, but I think he should be up.
• 24:38
  I think he should be in the majors.
• 24:40
  I think if he if he played a full season, I, I sincerely
• 24:43
  believe this guy would hit thirty home runs and it wouldn't
• 24:48
  surprise me at all. So you talk briefly in the
• 24:53
  beginning of this episode about Tony Blanco talking about he's
• 24:57
  he's a giant and you pass up comps to Giancarlo standing and
• 25:02
  talk about the power the. Raw.
• 25:04
  Yeah, right, right. And you talk about his raw
• 25:07
  power. Eighty grade of course, and.
• 25:10
  More than eighty grade. Right.
• 25:12
  And so but he does have a high strike to rate, like you said,
• 25:16
  and also the fact that he does have baseball in his background.
• 25:19
  His father played Tony Blanco senior.
• 25:21
  But talk about where's his trajectories are at.
• 25:24
  You saw him play the other day and he hit a an enormous home
• 25:30
  run and, and, and how he can get profiled it somehow be up in the
• 25:36
  majors if there's any leeway to for him to be up in the future.
• 25:40
  So he he's doing exactly what you need to do.
• 25:42
  So you need to just hit the ball hard in the air.
• 25:45
  So a lot of guys, if they hit the ball super hard but they
• 25:49
  can't get in the air, I'm not that excited about them.
• 25:52
  So you show like back back in the day, I was super excited
• 25:54
  about Jordan Walker because I didn't understand launch angles.
• 25:58
  I would have been super excited about Neil Cruz as a as a fifty
• 26:01
  home run threat because I didn't understand launch angles.
• 26:03
  That's not the case of Tony Blanco.
• 26:05
  Like he makes better contact in the air.
• 26:07
  Like he is optimized for air contact.
• 26:10
  So even if he takes 3 swings, it's like if you do the math, he
• 26:13
  takes 10 swings, 3 strikeouts one time.
• 26:17
  He makes good solid contact is what for four with a home run?
• 26:23
  That's that's the kind of math and it works.
• 26:26
  And you see it with with Nick Kurtz, like Nick Kurtz had a
• 26:29
  like a 11000 OPS. Right.
• 26:33
  And if I asked you who had a better zone contact, Nick Kurtz
• 26:36
  or Joe Adele, who do you think had a better zone contact?
• 26:40
  I would say Joe Adele. That's correct.
• 26:44
  But Nick, Nick Kurtz had a very substandard zone contact.
• 26:48
  But it doesn't matter. I mean, everything matters, but
• 26:51
  it doesn't matter because when he does make contact, it's in
• 26:56
  the air and his heart and he's in Sacramento.
• 27:01
  So I think Jordan had like a slightly above average and Nick
• 27:04
  Kurtz was like 10 points below average in his own contact and
• 27:08
  to his contact. Like if I show you Nick Kurtz's
• 27:10
  card, it's very purple in my purple and gold scheme and like
• 27:15
  10%, ten points below average zone contact.
• 27:18
  But his heart hit launch angle was 90°.
• 27:20
  His fly ball leg velocity is 95 miles an hour.
• 27:23
  And that just means anytime he touches the ball, he does
• 27:26
  damage. And that's exactly what Tony
• 27:29
  Blank was doing. So there's a line.
• 27:33
  So what's the line of enough zone, enough contact?
• 27:36
  I don't know. Generally speaking, the the
• 27:39
  thought is you need to be at least 70% to be viable.
• 27:43
  Tony Blanco, maybe it's 65%, maybe it's 66%.
• 27:49
  He doesn't look like he can run at all.
• 27:51
  So I don't think he's going to have any defensive value
• 27:54
  whatsoever. But there is a viable path to
• 28:01
  the majors if if he can, if he can continue on that path.
• 28:05
  And I would say he would probably need to be more patient
• 28:09
  and selective and be willing to get, you know, a lot of look,
• 28:13
  you know, called strikes on him so he can pick the pitches that
• 28:16
  he can really do damage against. And then, you know, if I had to
• 28:21
  put a number on it, I'd say 7% chance he's going to make the
• 28:26
  majors. I'm going to pull up and make up
• 28:29
  a number. But if he does, it's going to be
• 28:32
  the most fun thing ever. This next question I have for
• 28:36
  you is kind of fitting because I just, I just took him in my
• 28:39
  fantasy draft that we just did and I got him pretty late too.
• 28:44
  So I'm excited. It's Dalen Lyle.
• 28:46
  He was, you know, he's become a really important player for the
• 28:49
  Nationals. You know, he had a great season
• 28:52
  last year and like 321 at bats he got at the majors and he was
• 28:57
  a second overall or a second round pick.
• 29:00
  Compare him to like Dylan Cruz, who was a second overall pick
• 29:06
  and tell me what those guys and their and and how they like.
• 29:10
  What differentiates those two from each other and who you're
• 29:13
  higher on? I'd say that well, Dylan Law is
• 29:17
  produced. So from a metric standpoint,
• 29:20
  they're they're not that far off.
• 29:21
  But Dylan Niles produced at every level.
• 29:23
  He's played well and Dylan Cruz is kind of being mediocre.
• 29:28
  That being said, I don't understand why the nationals are
• 29:31
  sending him down. They could just stick him at
• 29:34
  first base or DH or rotate. You know, they won't have Jacob
• 29:38
  Young in center field. That makes sense.
• 29:40
  But don't rotate Dylan Lyle, James Wood and Dylan Cruz
• 29:44
  through that DH spot. Like, I don't know who they have
• 29:46
  there right now, but they're not really better than let me just
• 29:52
  see what who they have there. And I remember looking at this
• 29:57
  when they sent him down And right now at DH, yeah, Andres
• 30:00
  Chaparro or Luis Garcia junior at first, that's who, that's who
• 30:06
  Roster resource has. And honestly, I'd just give
• 30:10
  Dylan Cruz another year. Maybe it gets better.
• 30:13
  I'm not a I'm not, I'm not a Major League coach, so I don't,
• 30:16
  I'm not, I'm not looking at him that closely, but it it just, it
• 30:20
  just feels weird to me to send him, send him down AAA.
• 30:25
  That's crazy. It it really is crazy, like just
• 30:29
  just just like stick him up first base DH like doesn't make
• 30:33
  doesn't make much sense to me. I don't know what's the reason
• 30:37
  to that, especially when that team is not winning for an at
• 30:40
  least a couple years, right, maybe longer depending on where
• 30:45
  they stand. But we'll see what happens with
• 30:47
  that whole organization makeover, right.
• 30:50
  So with that whole young. Steps So, so that that's my
• 30:53
  theory that it's like there there's a change of guards and
• 30:56
  kind of like when when the Red Sox had the change of guards,
• 31:00
  they no longer were Raphael Devers fans.
• 31:03
  And so they they wanted to offload him for for nothing.
• 31:06
  So they got rid of Raphael Devers and they they may want to
• 31:12
  work on something with Dylan Cruz to unlock him and they feel
• 31:15
  it's better they can do that at AAA.
• 31:17
  So the new guys want to kind of do their thing.
• 31:20
  That's my only theory. And then maybe it comes back
• 31:23
  better. But you know, confidence is such
• 31:27
  a big thing with these athletes. You send a guy down to AAA and
• 31:33
  that take big hit to his confidence and then he's got to
• 31:36
  work back from that. It's it's interesting.
• 31:40
  It's interesting you said that because the name just came in my
• 31:42
  mind and he could he just got a contract last year was and he
• 31:47
  was supposed to be like a front runner for rookie of the year.
• 31:49
  Last year was Christian Campbell.
• 31:51
  Is it a similar effect to what Dylan Dylan Cruz as as well like
• 31:55
  trajectory wise? Yeah, I, I don't know what to
• 31:58
  make of Christian Campbell. Like I was very wrong about
• 32:00
  that. And it's like I thought he I
• 32:04
  said publicly the time I thought he was a better prospect than
• 32:06
  Roman Anthe. That was clearly very wrong.
• 32:10
  So I'm I'm never, I'm never ashamed to admit when I'm wrong.
• 32:15
  And it's changed how I think about prospects.
• 32:19
  Christian Campbell. Great.
• 32:22
  Well, it was a great contact average power, and I don't want
• 32:26
  people to interpret this the wrong way, but that's the same
• 32:29
  kind of archetype that Kevin Mcgonagall is.
• 32:33
  And it's not to say that Kevin Mcgonagall is going to have the
• 32:35
  same trajectory as as Christian Campbell, but when you're the
• 32:41
  average power guy, it's so hard to be a very good major leaguer
• 32:48
  because everything has to break, right?
• 32:50
  So on a tangent, I think Kevin Mcgonagall reminds me a lot of
• 32:54
  Alex Bregman in that he's super optimized with his launch
• 32:57
  angles. His raw power is going to be at
• 33:00
  best average and he'll make a lot of lot of contact.
• 33:05
  And I think with Christian Campbell, I think his power went
• 33:08
  from average to like slightly below average and then
• 33:11
  everything just fell apart. And that's why I'm always
• 33:15
  skeptical is probably the right word, skeptical of prospects
• 33:18
  with average power, without let's an 80 grade hit tool like
• 33:22
  like Kevin Mcgonaglass. So Kevin Mcgonagall, Baseball
• 33:24
  America gave them an 80 grade hit tool.
• 33:26
  They do not do that lightly. All, all all the data suggests
• 33:30
  that that's legitimate and that's, you know, appropriate
• 33:34
  hit tool evaluations. That's kind of like what Alex
• 33:36
  Bregman is an 80 hit tool with with, you know, 50 power, 4550
• 33:40
  power. And you can make that work and
• 33:42
  be very successful. And this is not to say like
• 33:44
  calling Kevin Mcgonagall the next Alex Bregman.
• 33:47
  It's not a slight on Kevin Mcgonigle.
• 33:49
  That's high praise. Alex Bregman is going to be like
• 33:52
  a 4050 win player for his career.
• 33:56
  So I think what went wrong with Christian Campbell is he just
• 33:59
  lost a little bit of power and couldn't compete enough.
• 34:02
  And they didn't give him like the full runway to just keep on
• 34:05
  going. We'll see.
• 34:06
  We'll see if he can fix himself in AAA this year.
• 34:10
  It there's also possible some prospects when they get that big
• 34:13
  contract, they lose their edge. We saw it with, you know, who
• 34:20
  was the Philly, who was the Philly guy that they got that
• 34:22
  big, big contract. Scott Kingery, Scott.
• 34:24
  Kingery yeah, every year we think this is going to be year
• 34:28
  for Scott Kingery, especially in fantasy baseball because he had
• 34:31
  like multi position flex and he never panned out.
• 34:39
  Also, you know, Alby's seemed to lose his edge when he got when
• 34:43
  he signed that really stupid contract.
• 34:44
  Still bothers me that when he signed that contract like so so
• 34:49
  undervalue so under market value.
• 34:53
  Yeah, I remember, I remember. The Braves way of things, yeah.
• 34:57
  That's the Braves way, right? They undervalue like they give
• 34:59
  discounts, right? Store but like his
• 35:03
  representation should be criminally charged like.
• 35:07
  Absolutely. Like they cost him like forty,
• 35:12
  $50,000,000 because yeah, like it that that just bothers me.
• 35:18
  Get get all the athletes out there, get good representation.
• 35:22
  You know, you're at your, your, your career is only so long.
• 35:26
  You don't know how long your career is going to be.
• 35:27
  Maximize your your earnings while you can.
• 35:30
  No, you're worth right. No, you're worth like, look at,
• 35:33
  look at Juan Soto. He knew his worth.
• 35:35
  He betted himself. People told him he was stupid
• 35:38
  for, for turning down $350 million and he was and he was
• 35:44
  not like that's what I think was Samuel beside O2.
• 35:48
  He signed, I think they sent him to 8 years.
• 35:49
  I think they bought out, I think a year or two of free agency.
• 35:53
  Like why, why, why? You're going to hit, you're
• 35:58
  going to hit 40 home runs as a catcher.
• 36:02
  Like that's what you have the talent to do.
• 36:05
  Believe in yourself. You're going to get that cash.
• 36:08
  And then the moment you get into free agency, you're going to hit
• 36:11
  free agency at 26 or, yeah, 22nd, but basically like once.
• 36:16
  So yeah. So man, I keep cost himself with
• 36:21
  that contract. I mean, it's easy for me to say
• 36:24
  that, you know, I'm not, I'm not there, you know, being offered
• 36:26
  whatever, $80 million to play baseball, you know, coming from
• 36:31
  a, you know, poor background in somewhere in Latin America, You
• 36:35
  know, So it's very easy for me to say, yeah, you should make
• 36:37
  the correct, you know, expected value judgments.
• 36:40
  And if you don't take this deal, you'll probably make $500
• 36:43
  million sometime down the road. But like, that dude is so good.
• 36:50
  Like, I really think Samuel beside was like the number #2
• 36:54
  prospect in baseball. It's it, if you ask me, do you
• 36:59
  want the guy with an 80 hit tool and 50 power very high floor, or
• 37:04
  do you want the guy whose contact quality is basically
• 37:07
  Aaron Judge and he can catch like I want.
• 37:11
  I want Aaron Judge as a catcher like he's not going to be Aaron
• 37:13
  Judge. I'm, I'm, I'm being hyperbolic
• 37:15
  here for a reason, but that how hard he hits the ball at 20
• 37:21
  years old. This is not like scouts going to
• 37:23
  a field and seeing a guy and going, wow, the sound off his
• 37:27
  bat is amazing. This is measurable data for
• 37:30
  years of established performance and the exact type of batted
• 37:34
  ball data that you want to see that translates to at least
• 37:39
  thirty home runs here. If he does not hit thirty home
• 37:41
  runs this year, if he plays 150 a 160 games, I will be shocked.
• 37:47
  And even more than that, when you watch semi beside hit the
• 37:51
  balls he hits at like these exit velocities and launch angles are
• 37:55
  either like sometimes at his toes, sometimes at his waist.
• 37:59
  So it's not a group swing. It's not like was like, was it
• 38:03
  Chris Carter? I believe I'm I'm going way back
• 38:08
  in time here. Sounds like Vlad Senior.
• 38:11
  You know you can hit anything, right?
• 38:12
  It doesn't matter where it's pitched.
• 38:14
  It's it's, it's a lot like that, which is a blessing and a curse.
• 38:16
  But I remember Chris Carter watching Chris Carter and if you
• 38:21
  got into his swing path, he'd hit a home run.
• 38:23
  But if it was out of his swing path, he would just miss it
• 38:27
  'cause he didn't have any barrel adjustability.
• 38:30
  Salah Basar has like this insane power and he's got like his
• 38:35
  barrel get to anywhere and it's just mind bogglingly insanely
• 38:39
  talent talented. So how was this guy not the
• 38:44
  number 2 prospecting baseball? Like in my opinion, if I was
• 38:47
  writing a list it would be Conor Griffin because his defensive
• 38:50
  floor is so high and just the tools.
• 38:54
  I'd probably probably Conor Griffin and then sample Paseo.
• 38:57
  But man, is Assemble Paseo good Who?
• 39:00
  Do they have it? Who do they have it to now?
• 39:03
  Just curious. It's it's it's everybody has
• 39:05
  Kevin Mcgonigal either one or. Mcgonigal, right?
• 39:08
  Yeah, Yeah. And that's and that's that's
• 39:10
  because such a high floor but but but that archetype, the that
• 39:16
  archetype, I, I I'm never as never have as much conviction
• 39:20
  for as as a guy like Samuel Paseo.
• 39:23
  And it's not like Samuel Paseo is just tools.
• 39:25
  The dude has performed at an elite level at every single stop
• 39:31
  that he's that he's had as a youngster at every single level.
• 39:37
  So we're talking like, yeah, an A+ as an 18 year old in Ohio,
• 39:41
  196 way to run Creation Plus and AA only 126 as a 19 year old.
• 39:48
  And then a AAA last year, a 151, you know, way to run Creation
• 39:52
  Plus as a 20 year old in AAA, 23 home runs in 76 games, A-40 home
• 40:00
  run pace, essentially better than a 40 home run pace as a 20
• 40:03
  year old catcher in Tripoli. Like, what more does this guy
• 40:08
  have to do to prove the world that he is?
• 40:13
  And like, and then he's like 8th or 9th or something on most
• 40:15
  lists. And the questions are usually,
• 40:18
  you know, will he catch? Is he good enough to catch?
• 40:22
  And. Because if he's a first baseman,
• 40:26
  is he really worth you know, is he really the you know, top top
• 40:29
  tier prospect? Don't know, but his framing was
• 40:34
  basically average according to stack ass.
• 40:36
  His pop time was above average as in like it was it was very
• 40:40
  good. His his cost stealing above
• 40:43
  average was above average. Like the dude was a decent
• 40:49
  catcher at the Major League level.
• 40:53
  So in my in my humble opinion, even though so I wanted to say
• 40:57
  something because when I talk, I sound very confident.
• 41:02
  I'm I'm wrong a lot. So don't take my confidence as
• 41:07
  like means. I I think I'm never wrong.
• 41:10
  However, I'm wrong all the all the time.
• 41:13
  However, when it comes to MO Pasayo, I have so much
• 41:16
  conviction that this guy is a dude and I would I would have #2
• 41:21
  and I would strongly consider having him as the number one
• 41:23
  over prospect in baseball. This might be one of my favorite
• 41:28
  questions in this episode and I'm curious to see what your
• 41:31
  thoughts about this is because these guys got called up late
• 41:34
  last year while Trey Savage had one for the agents.
• 41:38
  So Noah McClain and Trey Savage, if you look at their numbers, I
• 41:42
  mean, McClain might have a better spin rate.
• 41:45
  Your Savage, you can't even you can't even track his delivery
• 41:49
  for a splitter, his pitch delivery.
• 41:51
  And if you look at the projections, just Savage has a
• 41:54
  27.3 percentage K rate and McClain 23.3 percentage K rate.
• 42:01
  Like how do you look at that comparison between 2:00 with
• 42:05
  their styles of pitching? Give me give me Nolan McClain
• 42:09
  every day, any day that it's, it's more than just spin rates,
• 42:13
  But he he is a true pitcher. It's going to be 5 or 6 plus
• 42:19
  pitches. Noel McLean for me, hands down.
• 42:25
  His performance last year was also incredible.
• 42:27
  Like a 2.06 ERA in 48 innings. Yeah, 2.99 ERA and AAA.
• 42:34
  Your Savage is very good. Long term, I think the league
• 42:40
  will figure out your Savage the more they see him.
• 42:43
  Like he'll always have the advantage of being very
• 42:45
  different, but the more the league season, the less of an
• 42:49
  impact his like reverse slider, like his slider goes arm side,
• 42:55
  which is super weird. And most guys aren't used to
• 42:57
  seeing that. And that's why it was very, very
• 42:59
  impactful I think in the playoffs because they came up
• 43:03
  and they just never seen anything like that before.
• 43:05
  And so there's always an adjustment period for for
• 43:08
  unicorns like you Savage, like I like Nolan McClain is just a
• 43:13
  pure pitcher in every sense of the word.
• 43:17
  And I would I would take Noel McLean over any other pitching
• 43:22
  prospect. And by by a lot like what?
• 43:27
  Like just to elaborate a little bit more.
• 43:29
  So Noel Mclean's ability to get insane pitch shapes is something
• 43:34
  other pitchers just cannot replicate.
• 43:37
  And that goes to the spin rate. So spin rates is just one piece
• 43:40
  of the puzzle. But when you can combine the
• 43:42
  spin rates and the ability to create those pitch shapes and
• 43:45
  command it all, and you have 5 or 6 pitches at all that you can
• 43:49
  command with the velocity to back it all up, like that's,
• 43:53
  that's basically a perfect picture for me.
• 43:57
  I would take no. I would take Noel McLean every
• 44:01
  single time. I don't.
• 44:03
  I don't know if he's rookie eligible.
• 44:04
  Is he rookie of you're eligible this year?
• 44:06
  Normally, if they're both, they're.
• 44:08
  Both. They should be, yeah.
• 44:09
  They're both still Rookie of the Year.
• 44:11
  They're both favorites respectively.
• 44:12
  They have they have your savages like the top favorite right now
• 44:16
  and I. And him and McClain and both AL
• 44:19
  and NL. Yeah, yeah.
• 44:20
  Yeah. So both those two in the AL1DL1
• 44:24
  DNL, yeah, let's let's talk about another prospect you have
• 44:29
  for the for the Asher Miguel Uloa and you have a list out and
• 44:34
  compare him to some of the other guys you have on that list.
• 44:37
  You have Jonah Tom, Treya Savage, Noah McClain, who you
• 44:41
  already talked about, Brandon Spro, Cam Shuttler, Bubba
• 44:46
  Chandler, Brett Louder, Gunner Hoagland and and just, you know,
• 44:50
  how does he profile versus some of those other guys?
• 44:53
  So I I cherry Patillo. So I want to I want to carry
• 44:55
  everything I'm saying here. My pitching sections of the not
• 44:59
  one hundreds has been spectacularly bad so far.
• 45:04
  I think I've had maybe one or two one minor success in Jack
• 45:09
  later couple of Orioles pitchers that made the Major League.
• 45:12
  It's really hard to pick pitchers that aren't aren't any
• 45:16
  not one hundreds. There's no excuse that should be
• 45:18
  better at it. So I could go over 5 again this
• 45:22
  year, but I I hope I won't. So I cherry picked a little bit
• 45:26
  and I took the projections from the bat X.
• 45:29
  So the bat X is usually best in class when they do like the end
• 45:33
  of year reviews, usually, usually Derek Cardi's the bat is
• 45:37
  is the best. And so I looked at the protected
• 45:41
  year race for Miguel Lola like like all of like all the
• 45:43
  protected year race and Miguel Lola's protected year race 3.84.
• 45:46
  So I was curious if that was good bad.
• 45:49
  It was just like generic because usually they're very, very
• 45:54
  conservative when it comes to rookie pitchers.
• 45:58
  And so I just picked a bunch of like, top prospects.
• 46:01
  I was curious how he would stack up.
• 46:03
  And Miguel Law's projected K percent was second best on that
• 46:09
  list of prospects you mentioned, just behind Jonah Tom.
• 46:13
  And his ERA was fourth best, just behind Norman Mcclick.
• 46:15
  Now these are projections. There's no way, no way that I
• 46:19
  think that Miguel Aloha is better than Nolan McClain, even
• 46:24
  though the projection seems to think he is this one projection.
• 46:29
  So you always got to take projections with a with a grain
• 46:31
  of salt, but it does go to show you that he is a legit pitching
• 46:36
  prospect. And back to my early, my earlier
• 46:40
  statement, there seems to be a thinking undervalue
• 46:44
  undervaluation of Astros prospect, especially pitching
• 46:46
  prospects. Like I don't recall Framber
• 46:49
  Valdez ever being a top prospect.
• 46:53
  I could be very wrong. I don't I don't remember him
• 46:55
  being a top 100 prospect. Jose Rikiti, I don't think was
• 46:59
  ever a top 100 prospect was a very good pitcher until he got
• 47:02
  injured. Luis Garcia.
• 47:07
  That's just off the top of my head of guys that they've
• 47:09
  developed that became that that came out of quote UN quote
• 47:13
  nowhere and then became a very good pitcher.
• 47:17
  So Lola is a good pitcher. Got a lot of a lot of different
• 47:21
  pitches. None of them are incredible, but
• 47:25
  it's a good fastball with good movement, the change ups, the
• 47:29
  tunnel. Well, it's got the the bridge
• 47:31
  cutter. So they talk about, you know,
• 47:32
  having, you know, 3 fastball. It's almost like 3 fastball
• 47:35
  shapes because this change up is really hard at 87 miles an hour.
• 47:38
  And then a big braking, a big, big vertical curveball and 5
• 47:44
  pitches, 5 quality pitches or the four core quality pitches.
• 47:47
  It's either four or five pitches depending on, on how you look at
• 47:50
  it. And that's the recipe for being
• 47:54
  a quality major leaguer. So I, I'm not, I don't think
• 47:59
  he's going to win rookie of the year.
• 48:01
  But sometimes it's always a random guy that you never heard
• 48:04
  of. And if it's going to be a random
• 48:05
  guy, it might just be Miguel Lola.
• 48:10
  Yeah, it's hard to predict about player to a rookie of the years.
• 48:14
  You just happens out of nowhere, right?
• 48:16
  But I like to talk about two former Red Sox pitching
• 48:20
  prospects, 1's with the White Sox and one's with the, I think
• 48:23
  the Nationals, right? And that's David Sandlin.
• 48:26
  He was kind of talked about for a little while, but he seems to
• 48:31
  have a, he seems to be known for as a power pitcher, but he was
• 48:35
  struggling a little bit in AAA and talk about what he needs to
• 48:38
  do to get that fixed. And Perel seems like you're very
• 48:41
  bullish on him because he has electric stuff, right?
• 48:43
  Very similar pitcher that throw for power.
• 48:45
  But what's the difference between those two?
• 48:47
  And do you think they they're probably going to regret trading
• 48:50
  those two prospects? I don't think they'll care
• 48:53
  because they're, they're pitching is so deep and I think
• 48:57
  they looked at it that we have, we have 5 starters we're happy
• 48:59
  with and we have Peyton Tolley and Connelly early for both
• 49:04
  Major League caliber and would be in, I don't know, 25 other
• 49:08
  rotations right now. So they have 7 very good
• 49:12
  pitchers. And I think at this stage of
• 49:14
  their competitive window, they don't want question marks.
• 49:20
  So you can keep guys like David Sandlin around, but those guys
• 49:24
  tend to take more time because his command is very iffy.
• 49:27
  So the stuff is is undoubtedly great.
• 49:30
  And I've been thinking about this a lot more.
• 49:36
  And I think teams might be, they might not be as stuff focused as
• 49:41
  we are in the public space. So in the public space, the
• 49:44
  easiest thing to talk about is stuff, oh look, this guy's
• 49:47
  stuff. Plus he's amazing and I'm going
• 49:49
  to, you know, sometimes you see like it's kind of like the
• 49:52
  pitching ninja stuff. Yeah, he shows you like a guy
• 49:56
  and the guy swings the misses by by 10 feet and you look up the
• 50:00
  pitching line and he's given up tenor and runs with like three
• 50:03
  home runs. It's kind of the same with like
• 50:05
  all these stuff things. Oh, look at this amazing stuff
• 50:07
  that you look at like the line and he's going to absolutely
• 50:10
  shell act. So stuff is definitely
• 50:12
  important. I don't want anybody to
• 50:14
  interpret this to me saying I don't believe in stuff.
• 50:16
  Most of what I write about is is stuff quality, but stuff can
• 50:19
  only get you so far. And as pitching becomes more and
• 50:23
  more competitive and more guys are able to produce, plus pitch
• 50:26
  shapes, the other aspects of pitching I think are becoming
• 50:30
  more and more important. And I think teams have already
• 50:33
  moved on to that and especially teams like the Red Sox.
• 50:36
  And I think they look at guy like David Sandlin, the guy like
• 50:39
  Luis Perales, who have phenomenal stuff.
• 50:40
  And they say we don't think the odds of them putting that stuff
• 50:44
  together into a viable Major League starting package is going
• 50:49
  to happen in the in our competitive window.
• 50:51
  So we'd rather trade them now and get some some kind of
• 50:55
  return. That's my theory, which which
• 51:01
  could be off base, but it it it's I don't have any other way
• 51:04
  to rationalize them trading away two guys with like really top
• 51:08
  notch stuff, but command issues other than to say that they they
• 51:14
  really want to optimize the pitchers with with command and
• 51:17
  enough stuff. Andrew Morris is a right-handed
• 51:23
  pitching prospect for the Minnesota Twins.
• 51:25
  You guys have him ranked #13 on the top 30.
• 51:29
  And you compared him, which was interesting to Chris Bassett,
• 51:32
  who's had a, who's had a really long and successful career.
• 51:36
  So just tell us about that comparison a little bit.
• 51:39
  It's the unsexy pitcher who throws hard, but not super hard.
• 51:46
  None of his pitches are going to make you go.
• 51:49
  You're not going to not going to wow you with any of his pitches,
• 51:53
  but he'll be able to throw six or seven of them.
• 51:56
  Mix well, command well and make it all work and be as be a
• 51:59
  successful major leader. That's the kind of profile that
• 52:02
  I see for Andrew Morris. Like he throws the two
• 52:05
  fastballs. Neither fastball is great.
• 52:07
  Like so fastball sinker. They're probably both, you know,
• 52:12
  40 great pitches, but then he also has the change up and he's
• 52:16
  got a cutter and he's got a sweeper and he's got the
• 52:19
  curveball. And that's kind of the Chris
• 52:21
  Bassett template. Will it will it be successful in
• 52:24
  the majors? It's always hard to succeed when
• 52:27
  you when you don't have plus stuff.
• 52:31
  But having 6 quality pitches that you can command is the is
• 52:35
  the way to go if you're going to be that kind of pitcher.
• 52:38
  I'm going to talk about Trevor McDonald here.
• 52:41
  And when you profile this as a as a pitcher, one name that
• 52:47
  comes in mind that's on the current rotation of Tyler
• 52:49
  O'Malley. He's induces a ton of ground
• 52:51
  balls, gives gifts, limited walks.
• 52:54
  He has a 42.4 percentage with swing and 23.3% with whisper
• 53:00
  pitch. Like how does he fit into this
• 53:03
  Giant's rotation? And if there's any possibility
• 53:06
  that there's a possibility, there's a chance for him to
• 53:08
  pitch with the Giants in the near future.
• 53:12
  Pictures are notorious for getting injured, so and it's not
• 53:17
  like the other than Logan Webb you're talking about Robbie Ray,
• 53:21
  who you know, not a picture, not a picture of L Tyler Malley's
• 53:25
  being injured a lot. Adrian Hauser and Landon Rope.
• 53:29
  I don't consider those guys like locks.
• 53:33
  There will be opportunity for him and I think that archetype,
• 53:38
  the sinker ball guy is extremely underrated in in baseball in
• 53:43
  general because they don't get the the flashy K numbers.
• 53:48
  But like his sinker is basically 00 inches of induced spherical
• 53:53
  brake means he's getting massive steam shifted weight drop and
• 53:58
  that makes it impossible for guys to lift.
• 54:00
  So he can just spam the zone with lots of sinkers and worst
• 54:04
  case scenario, he'll be giving up a lot of singles.
• 54:07
  Sometimes they, you know, the singles stack up and they have
• 54:08
  bad innings. But it's it's the same principle
• 54:13
  that talk about with batters. It's all about launch angles.
• 54:17
  And the one thing that pitchers can control more than anything
• 54:20
  else and bad at ball quality is launch angles.
• 54:24
  And having a sinker which can control launch angles is the
• 54:28
  ultimate weapon the starter can have.
• 54:30
  It's the Christopher Sanchez, Framber Valdez, Logan Webb.
• 54:34
  These guys are very successful just by having that sinker that
• 54:36
  they can just throw pretty much whatever they want.
• 54:40
  And then he combines that with an insane sweeper that has this
• 54:44
  huge widespread of movement, gets a ton of whiffs, which were
• 54:50
  probably better against righties, but won't be
• 54:53
  completely useless against lefties.
• 54:54
  And even against lefties, he's got to change up like, like I
• 54:58
  see a very viable path. This guy being a very good
• 55:02
  pitcher. Like it's the I, I don't know if
• 55:04
  I don't think Brandon Webb ever threw.
• 55:06
  I don't know why all my all my examples are from 20 years ago,
• 55:10
  but I think Brandon Webb, I remember correctly watching him,
• 55:13
  he was basically fastball change up.
• 55:17
  I, I, I don't think he threw anything else.
• 55:19
  Sorry, sinker change up and he just spammed that sinker went
• 55:22
  all the time and it was change ups to to I think both edges,
• 55:26
  both, both sides. And that's Trevor McDonald, you
• 55:30
  know, great sinker. So you can strike up, strike out
• 55:33
  righties for the sweeper. Here's the change UPS against
• 55:35
  lefties, even might have a bridge cutter just to just to,
• 55:40
  you know, confuse the hitters a little bit.
• 55:43
  And it's just a question of whether or not they'll give him,
• 55:46
  they'll give him a chance in the majors or not.
• 55:49
  Let's shift to the last portion of your list, and that's the
• 55:52
  bullpen got you. You mentioned Anthony Nunez with
• 55:57
  the Orioles, Daniel Espino with the Guardians, Brandon Bedoua
• 56:04
  with the Pirates and Nigel Belgrave with the Phillies,
• 56:09
  Roden Coop with the Dodgers and Andrew Walters with the with the
• 56:13
  Guardians. So just just talk about those
• 56:16
  pitchers a little bit and who intrigues you the most and who
• 56:19
  do you like how those guys profile as you know prospects?
• 56:25
  The guy I have the most confidence in is Andrew Walters.
• 56:30
  Again, I'm going to caveat, I'm terrible at protecting relief
• 56:33
  pitching prospects. But all that being said, Andrew
• 56:37
  Walters looks to me like if he's healthy, a future relief ace.
• 56:42
  He's he's got that beautiful heifer fastball, a dominant
• 56:48
  death ball slider. I think he even has a change up
• 56:51
  or a splitter and he's got the performance track record at
• 56:55
  every single level. I think it was a high level
• 56:57
  closer in college. His numbers in in the minor
• 57:00
  leagues are excellent. If and when he comes back from
• 57:04
  his lat injury, he's in my mind the set up guy in Cleveland.
• 57:11
  And I think Cleveland will end up trading Kate Smith because
• 57:13
  that's what they do. And then and he very well could
• 57:17
  be the the closer in Cleveland before the end of the year.
• 57:20
  Like he's like if I had to pick one guy that I think that I
• 57:23
  think is going to be an impact Major League arm, it would be
• 57:27
  Andrew Walters for sure. The guy find the most
• 57:31
  interesting is for sure Anthony Nunez.
• 57:36
  So his story is crazy because he I think he he got drafted and
• 57:44
  then he found a loophole to go back to like NCAA, like division
• 57:48
  two to hit. And then he flamed out as a
• 57:52
  hitter and then decided, OK, I'm going to start pitching in 2024.
• 57:57
  So less than late 2024, less than two years ago.
• 58:02
  And his stuff looks like it was built in the lab, most likely
• 58:06
  because he just went to driveline or tread or somewhere
• 58:10
  and literally built an insane five pitch arsenal of stuff that
• 58:17
  is just incredible. Like exactly what I So what I do
• 58:21
  when I write and I like I take a guy's every year I go through
• 58:24
  like the draft prospects and I look at their stuff and I'm
• 58:26
  like, OK, this is what this guy would need to change, I think in
• 58:29
  order for that to be a viable major leaguer.
• 58:31
  And I look at Anthony Union as a stuff that's like, this is
• 58:34
  exactly what I would write if I was building Anthony Nunez in
• 58:40
  the lab. It's, it's a plus fastball.
• 58:42
  He, he, he has sinker with tremendous vertical and
• 58:47
  horizontal deviation from the fastball with the same velocity
• 58:49
  band. Then he's got the splitter with
• 58:52
  like -5 negative 5 IVB. So it drops more than gravity.
• 58:58
  And, and just to give a sense of how hard that is.
• 59:01
  So all pitches when you throw it, the sorry, the air pressure,
• 59:08
  I'm going to get this wrong, I'm not a physicist, but potentially
• 59:12
  the air resistance stops the ball from dropping.
• 59:15
  So even if you throw it with like no spin at all, just the
• 59:19
  velocity alone is going to create friction with the air and
• 59:21
  it's not going to drop. So to get 5 inches of drop more
• 59:24
  than gravity means not only are you like, so you're leveraging
• 59:29
  seam shifted wakes to such an effect that the ball is dropping
• 59:33
  way more than it should. And that pitch is like a major
• 59:37
  swing in this pitch might be one of the best pure stop pitches in
• 59:39
  all the minors. And then he's got the bridge
• 59:42
  cutter, which everyone wants and a sweeper that's touched 20
• 59:46
  inches of of of sweep. So a a, a vertical fastball, a
• 59:51
  great sinker, seam shifted wake and like a sweeper.
• 59:55
  That could also be plus. And this guy started pitching a
• 59:59
  year and a half ago. Like I'm mind boggling.
• 1:00:04
  How how this is even possible? Which which put a thought into
• 1:00:09
  my head that perhaps if you take somebody that's never pitched
• 1:00:13
  before, it's easier to teach them all these things.
• 1:00:16
  So they don't have learned habits from pitching since they
• 1:00:19
  were 5. So I don't know if I was, if I
• 1:00:24
  was AGM, I'd I'd take some like washed up college football
• 1:00:28
  quarterbacks, put them, put 20 of them in a pitching lab and
• 1:00:32
  see if I can get an Anthony and you, yes.
• 1:00:37
  Yeah, that's, it's interesting. It's very interesting to think
• 1:00:40
  like these relievers, they come out of nowhere and you could
• 1:00:42
  talk about it, but I know and make a guy that that's become a
• 1:00:46
  reliever for the Braves. But I'm curious to see what your
• 1:00:48
  thoughts about is Didier fluentes.
• 1:00:50
  I know you raved about him last year about his stuff and he was
• 1:00:54
  basically unhedible in spring training.
• 1:00:56
  Like like does he have more upside than the ones you
• 1:01:00
  mentioned in that list? Yeah, well, he's a top 100
• 1:01:03
  prospect, I think by by most, most outlets.
• 1:01:09
  He's he's fantastic. And the Braves are, I think are
• 1:01:12
  gonna, I think they'll say they're gonna have him do long
• 1:01:14
  relief out of the pen to start and then they're gonna ship them
• 1:01:18
  to AAA to start, which I think is fine.
• 1:01:20
  He's 20 years old, as though there's no rush with him.
• 1:01:24
  He's he's very, very good. This is probably my favorite
• 1:01:28
  part of this episode is the AL rookie of the year candidates.
• 1:01:33
  And you talked about a couple of I'm pretty sure you would have
• 1:01:35
  to think Paseo is for in your eyes is probably the favorite.
• 1:01:39
  But if you have to talk about anybody else that you believe,
• 1:01:42
  like some guys are going to be AAA, like the chase, the
• 1:01:44
  Lauders. Well, Mcgonagall has already
• 1:01:47
  talked about Travis Bazan and I'm sure the aides have a
• 1:01:50
  prospect in AAA that's a close to ready like a Tommy White or
• 1:01:54
  something or whoever. Like, talk about some of the
• 1:01:57
  players that you're intrigued about for this year's Rookie of
• 1:02:00
  the Year hitting candidates. So Carter Jensen, if you, if you
• 1:02:05
  wander over to Carter Jensen's stat cast page, you're going to
• 1:02:09
  see those red bars, which I don't like, but literally top of
• 1:02:15
  the scale in everything. This is one of the most
• 1:02:19
  underrated prospects in my opinion, in in all of baseball.
• 1:02:24
  I'm just going to wander over there for a second.
• 1:02:26
  So I don't I don't quote any correct statistics.
• 1:02:31
  Yeah. So 75 miles per bass beat.
• 1:02:33
  And then his ex boba, his xba, his X locking, his average X
• 1:02:37
  velocity, all top of the scale. His his launch angles were great
• 1:02:42
  in his tiny sample in the majors, but in in in AAA, they
• 1:02:46
  were they were enormous. The dude doesn't chase draws his
• 1:02:50
  walks, hits the ball hard. He is a good catcher.
• 1:02:55
  I don't think Salvador Perez is going to, you know, catch less
• 1:02:59
  and less every single year. Like outside of Samuel Basayo,
• 1:03:04
  Carter Jensen isn't really that far off except that he's two
• 1:03:07
  years older and he's not quite as physical.
• 1:03:12
  So Basayo is an enormous human. And so getting to that power
• 1:03:18
  doesn't take as much. It's not, it's not as high
• 1:03:20
  effort. Carter Jensen is like a normal
• 1:03:24
  size 6 foot tall human, but he hits the ball basically just as
• 1:03:28
  hard and in many ways is a like a more disciplined hitter than
• 1:03:34
  than Pasio, even though even if he's not as talented.
• 1:03:37
  So it would not surprise me if Carter Jensen runs away with the
• 1:03:41
  rookie of the year and then if we're going to go with an
• 1:03:45
  Oakland A's. So before today, so when I was
• 1:03:48
  writing up my my notes, I I scribbled down Jamie Arnold for
• 1:03:52
  the sole reason that the Athletics took him and their hit
• 1:03:56
  rate has been very good recently.
• 1:03:58
  But he did not look very good today in the in the spring
• 1:04:02
  breakout game. Like his stuff just seemed all
• 1:04:05
  over the place and batters, even lefties seemed pretty
• 1:04:08
  comfortable against him. So maybe he was just hey, I
• 1:04:12
  don't want to read too much into just one, one game like his
• 1:04:15
  stuff is is is reminded when I looked at his stuff from the
• 1:04:19
  draft, it was very much like Chris sales stuff.
• 1:04:23
  Again, I'm not comparing him to Chris Sale, but like the the the
• 1:04:26
  movement and the and the arm angle and all of that was very
• 1:04:30
  much like Chris Sale. But he didn't look good today,
• 1:04:35
  which means he's probably going to start in AAA And I don't know
• 1:04:38
  when he'll be up in the majors or if he has the command yet to
• 1:04:42
  be to be up in the majors just yet.
• 1:04:45
  So it'd probably be if I had to rank, it'd probably be Paseo,
• 1:04:48
  Jensen, Mcgonagle and then you Savage as ale work in my picks
• 1:04:54
  for ALE Rookie of the year. Well, you just brought up a
• 1:04:58
  great, great segue for this question.
• 1:05:03
  Now is that let's talk about the AO rookie pitcher candidates.
• 1:05:08
  You mentioned Jamie Arnold Gauge jumps an interesting name.
• 1:05:14
  Who else do you have on your list of possible guys that could
• 1:05:17
  put their hat and their name in the hat?
• 1:05:21
  Camp Schlittler, obviously if he's if he's eligible, he's his
• 1:05:27
  story is also crazy. Like he was throwing 91 mph 2
• 1:05:31
  years ago, now he's throwing 979899.
• 1:05:35
  No especially amped up in the playoffs.
• 1:05:37
  All of this stuff is is tremendous and like his
• 1:05:42
  performance in the biggest stage shows he clearly can compete,
• 1:05:46
  you know, at the Major League level.
• 1:05:49
  But he's a pitcher and pitchers are so volatile, random, you
• 1:05:55
  know, a little bit dip and stuff and they and and they go
• 1:05:58
  backwards a little bit uptick and stuff.
• 1:06:00
  And some of the best pitcher of baseball, like it's really,
• 1:06:03
  really hard to project pitchers. You know, you can you can even
• 1:06:09
  throw a major wild card out there like Carlos Legrande on
• 1:06:13
  the New York Yankees, unbelievable stuff quality like
• 1:06:19
  he's like, he just throws super easy, fluid, 102 miles an hour
• 1:06:24
  with good shape. There's not a ton else that's
• 1:06:28
  really exciting with with with Carlos Legrande.
• 1:06:30
  But if a couple of injuries and and they throw them in there as
• 1:06:34
  a starter, you know he could be, he could be a work of the year
• 1:06:38
  candidate. What about what about in my, you
• 1:06:43
  know, the the Japanese import and, and and Peyton Tolley,
• 1:06:49
  Boston? Peyton Tolley for sure if he if
• 1:06:51
  he gets to play. So I got a lot of this is a lot
• 1:06:53
  of this is like opportunity based.
• 1:06:56
  Peyton Tolley's like his fastball is absurdly good.
• 1:07:00
  It's, you know, from the low low release angle, huge extension if
• 1:07:05
  I remember correctly. Great ride.
• 1:07:07
  Like that's the recipe for especially from the left side.
• 1:07:10
  I think like that's the recipe for very, very good fastball
• 1:07:14
  that will allow him to dominate. Is he going to pitch much?
• 1:07:18
  Is he behind early? Is he after early?
• 1:07:22
  Red Sox haven't really made that clear from what I've seen.
• 1:07:25
  I personally would prefer him prefer Tully to early.
• 1:07:30
  If one of those two guys gets the gets to run for the whole
• 1:07:32
  season, they could very well be rookie of your candidates if but
• 1:07:39
  I don't think they'll outdo either Besiah or Jensen.
• 1:07:41
  I think one of those 2 is almost for sure going to win rookie of
• 1:07:45
  the year, but there are large large error bands when
• 1:07:51
  projecting anything rookie related.
• 1:07:55
  Let's talk about the NL Rookie of the Year candidates here.
• 1:07:58
  And we saw a large sample, saw the guys who could be
• 1:08:02
  potentially, and I think it's more competitive than they held.
• 1:08:05
  That's just me. I mean, Conor Griffin was sent
• 1:08:08
  down and I'm pretty sure he'll be up later this year.
• 1:08:12
  JJ Weatherholt intrigues me a lot.
• 1:08:14
  We know we're seeing Louis's Sal Stewart is still considered a
• 1:08:17
  Rookie of the year candidate and Owen Casey and Bryce Aldridge
• 1:08:20
  like, and Carson Benj. I mean, it seems a little bit
• 1:08:23
  more competitive to that standpoint of rookie year.
• 1:08:26
  It's like, who do you have as the most upside out of all the
• 1:08:30
  list that I mentioned? You sell Stewart, but like I
• 1:08:36
  take the AL guys over those guys by a lot.
• 1:08:39
  Why we even have AL and NL rookie of years is beyond me at
• 1:08:43
  this point. But you know, baseball old heads
• 1:08:47
  don't don't like to move very fast.
• 1:08:52
  Sal Stewart's got some good upside, but he's not he won't
• 1:08:55
  have a lot of defensive value. Carson Benj is good, but the
• 1:08:58
  Mets are stacked and they don't care about getting a guy rookie
• 1:09:03
  of the year like they're they'll platoon him or they'll play him
• 1:09:06
  3-4 times a week or whatever, whatever they think is going to
• 1:09:09
  give them the best chance of winning because that's all they
• 1:09:12
  care about, as they should. JJ Weatherholt, fantastic
• 1:09:17
  player. He's not going to hit thirty
• 1:09:20
  home runs. He's not going to hit 330.
• 1:09:23
  Like he's going to be a very good 28020 home run type of guy.
• 1:09:28
  Is that going to win Rookie of the year?
• 1:09:29
  Maybe Baba Chandler is a God. Like I remember watching him in
• 1:09:37
  the Futures Game two years ago and I was blown away.
• 1:09:41
  I'm not, I'm not an ice scout. But like, you see certain
• 1:09:44
  pitchers and just the way they move is just so athletic, so
• 1:09:48
  fluid. Just go, OK, I believe in this
• 1:09:51
  guy that he can repeat this. He can be this kind of guy for a
• 1:09:55
  long time, though. I believe in Bubba Chandler's
• 1:09:58
  ability to maintain 9899 with good pitch shapes.
• 1:10:03
  I, I, I'd like to see like the slider be a little better, his
• 1:10:07
  change up be a little better. I'd love to see a real curveball
• 1:10:10
  like more consistently. But that fastball's going to
• 1:10:12
  carry him. He's already succeeded.
• 1:10:15
  I raved about Nolan McLean. I would still take Nolan McLean
• 1:10:18
  over Bubba Chandler easily. I take Nolan McLean over any
• 1:10:23
  pitching prospect in baseball. And like you said, I think Conor
• 1:10:27
  Griffin will be up somewhere mid-May if not sooner.
• 1:10:34
  But there's a chance they may want to let him like have
• 1:10:38
  significant time at AAA. Like, he's very young, he's very
• 1:10:41
  raw. They, they may want to rush him
• 1:10:44
  for, for prospect promotion reasons, prospect promotion
• 1:10:49
  incentive reasons, but they don't seem to work that way.
• 1:10:52
  Pittsburgh, at least recently, like with Paul Skeens, they
• 1:10:54
  didn't really seem to care. It was like, this is our plan
• 1:10:57
  for Paul Skeens and we're just going to do it that way.
• 1:11:01
  And the same with Bubba Chandler, They didn't really
• 1:11:04
  seem to try to optimize for, for PPI picks.
• 1:11:07
  So I don't think they're going to do that with Conor Griffin
• 1:11:09
  either, and nor should they. They'll just kind of let him get
• 1:11:12
  as much time as they think he needs in AAA and and then and
• 1:11:16
  then promote him when when he's ready.
• 1:11:18
  And it's not like he's he's proven that he's this polished
• 1:11:22
  guy that doesn't chase, that has no flaws.
• 1:11:27
  He is just an enormous athlete with mega tools across the board
• 1:11:32
  that has performed across the board.
• 1:11:35
  But he does need a little bit more time.
• 1:11:38
  I'll ask you about the NL Rookie of the Year pitching candidates.
• 1:11:42
  I know you briefly talked about Noel McClain and and and Bubba
• 1:11:47
  Chandler, but what about guys like Rhett Louder, Andrew
• 1:11:50
  Painter and Jr. Richie's a big topic in brave
• 1:11:54
  circles this year. You know, with their injury
• 1:11:57
  issues this year, you expect him to be up sooner than later.
• 1:12:01
  So what are your thoughts about them?
• 1:12:05
  I think it'll be DDR Fuentes before they before they go GR
• 1:12:08
  Richie, but let's let's take a look what we got here yeah so
• 1:12:14
  decent fastball gorgeous change up and negative vert good
• 1:12:19
  sinker. That's a nice it's a nice
• 1:12:21
  arsenal for Jr. Richie.
• 1:12:23
  I I always, I hate projecting pitchers because I'm going to,
• 1:12:30
  you know, like five years ago, did anyone think Tarek school
• 1:12:33
  ball was going to be the best pitcher in baseball?
• 1:12:36
  Right? I don't think so.
• 1:12:38
  Like sometimes a pitcher is just like add one mile per hour, they
• 1:12:41
  had two inches of vert and they suddenly become this, this world
• 1:12:45
  stopper Jerry Richie. Richie is very good.
• 1:12:48
  Like, I see no reason why he can't be at least like a #2 #3
• 1:12:54
  starter. He doesn't blow me away the way
• 1:12:57
  Nolan McLean does. Like, it's a good arsenal and
• 1:13:02
  good performance track record or AAA.
• 1:13:03
  And then sometimes those guys just have absurdly good seasons
• 1:13:07
  and then they run away with rookie Deer.
• 1:13:09
  So could he win? Rookie Deer?
• 1:13:10
  Sure. Will I will he I don't I, I
• 1:13:15
  wouldn't I, I wouldn't put money on it if I was a betting person.
• 1:13:22
  Let's look at Rhett. Rhett Louder Rhett Lauder I'm
• 1:13:27
  less of a fan of Rhett Lauder, mostly because he's got like a
• 1:13:32
  knight, like a bad fastball and doesn't have as wide an arsenal
• 1:13:37
  as Gerard Richard. Richard has like a very wide
• 1:13:39
  diverse arsenal and it's very tough to succeed in the major
• 1:13:43
  leagues with a without a plus fastball and and not a dynamic
• 1:13:49
  arsenal to to compensate for that.
• 1:13:52
  It's not to say he won't be a a good pitcher, Yes, I don't think
• 1:13:56
  he'll be. I wouldn't.
• 1:13:58
  I wouldn't think that he'll be a rookie of your candidate.
• 1:14:02
  There was one of the name you mentioned.
• 1:14:03
  There was. Yeah, it was Jonah Tong.
• 1:14:10
  Jonah Tong. So Jonah Tong.
• 1:14:13
  Love the fastball. Let's see.
• 1:14:17
  Let's see how it works. He's so tiny, like he like his
• 1:14:22
  he's not very big and strong. So I think getting to that, the
• 1:14:26
  velocity he needs to be successful requires him to Max
• 1:14:31
  out and that makes me a little less confident that he'll be a
• 1:14:36
  top notch Major League starter. So we'll see what Jonah Tong I
• 1:14:41
  was, you know, I was one of the OG early guys on Jonah Tong, but
• 1:14:47
  I've kind of become less less convinced that he's going to be
• 1:14:51
  a top tier Major League starter at this point in his career.
• 1:14:53
  It's always going to be some guy that we never thought was going
• 1:14:56
  to be. And then he's going to break
• 1:14:57
  into the scene and like, like last year, I don't think anyone
• 1:15:00
  had Cam Splitler, Nolan McLean as as top tier pitching
• 1:15:04
  prospects like I even. Or even Treya Savage because you
• 1:15:08
  know a lot of people thought that you think he was considered
• 1:15:11
  top or or well. He was He was a first round
• 1:15:13
  draft pick. He had a great track record in
• 1:15:15
  college. Like he wasn't considered, like
• 1:15:18
  no one thought he was going to be as good as he is.
• 1:15:21
  But it's not like he came out of nowhere.
• 1:15:24
  And just it wasn't today. Like everyone, all Jays fans
• 1:15:29
  would know who Tria Savage was, if they follow prospects at all,
• 1:15:31
  because he was their first overall pick, right?
• 1:15:34
  But guys like McClain and and, and Schlittler just came out of
• 1:15:38
  absolutely nowhere to become like potential aces.
• 1:15:45
  And that's kind of what I think is going to happen.
• 1:15:47
  It's going to be a couple of pictures that you've never heard
• 1:15:49
  of before, or maybe you've heard of, but like they just take a
• 1:15:52
  major leap and stuff and performance and just set the
• 1:15:55
  world on fire. There's there's one name that
• 1:15:59
  came in my mind right now and Saint Louis is on a rebuild.
• 1:16:02
  There's a couple guys actually is Liam Doyle and Quinn, Quinn
• 1:16:05
  Matthews. I know Matthews is probably a
• 1:16:07
  little bit ahead and Doyle's probably another year away.
• 1:16:09
  Like could you see any of those guys be factors this year or
• 1:16:13
  maybe in the future? I'm not I'm not a fan of Quinn
• 1:16:15
  Matthews like his his stuff dropped and he seems to have
• 1:16:18
  trouble maintaining that plus vert fastball and he doesn't
• 1:16:23
  have he doesn't have like elite Velo to make it all play up.
• 1:16:29
  So he might be a back of the rotation type guy, but I don't
• 1:16:32
  really see him having front to the rotation upside unless he
• 1:16:35
  has a major jump and stuff. Like I remember I I wrote about
• 1:16:38
  him, I think 2024 because he kind of like burst onto the
• 1:16:42
  scene. He was thrown harder with better
• 1:16:45
  with better or better shape on his fastball.
• 1:16:47
  And then he kind of regressed and he doesn't seem to have been
• 1:16:49
  able to recapture those gains. So I'm not a I'm not a big, big
• 1:16:53
  fan of his. I'm just looking at William Liam
• 1:16:55
  Doro stuff here stuff. Not a fan of the fastball
• 1:17:00
  either. So from what he's showing in
• 1:17:02
  spring training, it's it's a mediocre fastball, interesting
• 1:17:07
  change up and then like a sweeper that's inconsistent.
• 1:17:11
  I don't know. I'd have to see more from Liam
• 1:17:12
  Doral before I, before I get too, too excited about that.
• 1:17:16
  But from my, my 5 second analysis of Liam Doral wouldn't,
• 1:17:21
  wouldn't intrigue me. The guy, the guy that I was very
• 1:17:24
  interested in that the Cardinals threat was Tanner Franklin.
• 1:17:28
  Tanner Franklin, like I don't know if his first second round
• 1:17:33
  pick like 96 mile per hour fastball with great, great
• 1:17:37
  shape, not much else in the arsenal.
• 1:17:41
  But if I'm going to build a pitcher, I want to start with a
• 1:17:44
  good fastball and then build the arsenal around that and that,
• 1:17:50
  that would be Tanner Franklin for me.
• 1:17:54
  Well, Ellie, we appreciate you being here.
• 1:17:58
  Great insight, great information, very useful
• 1:18:00
  information for all the prospect savvy people that want to
• 1:18:04
  understand where you can find it's information.
• 1:18:07
  But Ellie, where can we find you in social media and everywhere
• 1:18:11
  else? Just mostly just on Twitter at
• 1:18:13
  Ellie Bimpora. Just how you spell my name.
• 1:18:17
  Read my stuff. In Baseball America, I I do a
• 1:18:20
  weekly article during the season called Stat Cast Standouts where
• 1:18:24
  I look through AAA data and FSL data and I look for interesting
• 1:18:29
  prospects and basically talk about the stuff we talked about
• 1:18:33
  today. Yeah, thanks for coming on the
• 1:18:38
  show today. It was awesome to learn about
• 1:18:40
  some of these guys that, you know, maybe some of our
• 1:18:43
  listeners or even even myself haven't even heard about so or
• 1:18:48
  even, you know, to dive deeper into those prospects.
• 1:18:51
  And you know, we just love prospects so much.
• 1:18:53
  So every time we get a prospect guy on, we're just we love it.
• 1:18:57
  So thanks again for joining us and maybe we'll get you back for
• 1:19:01
  1/3 time down the road. Thank you so much for having me.
• 1:19:05
  You're welcome and we will to the picture below where you can
• 1:19:08
  find Ellie Ben Pratt at and social media.
• 1:19:12
  But till next time, take care, be kind to each other.
• 1:19:15
  Signing up for the Sports Ave. Twisted podcast on Sunday, March
• 1:19:19
  22nd, 2026.