Latest / Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast / Felix Prehn - LEAKED: The Bombshell Hitting Palantir, SoFi, Tesla, Nvidia… + Stock Market News 29 April 2025

Transcript

Felix Prehn - LEAKED: The Bombshell Hitting Palantir, SoFi, Tesla, Nvidia… + Stock Market News 29 April 2025 · Felix Nikolas Prehn's Podcast

• 0:00
  Speaker 1: Felix here and welcome to this pre-market live stream on a day where Wall Street's finest have just turned bullish.
• 0:07
  Speaker 1: Well, for now and I'll explain that for now, because that's really important I also want to give you some real insight before you go on a buying spree like give it a few minutes and let me ask you a question Do you want the good news?
• 0:21
  Speaker 1: Do you want good news?
• 0:22
  Speaker 1: Write good news in the chat or just good.
• 0:24
  Speaker 1: And if you want even more good news also let me know down in the chat, below Winston's, of course, also joining us here.
• 0:31
  Speaker 1: Where am I?
• 0:32
  Speaker 1: Here I am, and there is Winston down here.
• 0:34
  Speaker 1: And there is plenty of good news.
• 0:37
  Speaker 1: Today We've even got SoFi good news.
• 0:40
  Speaker 1: We're also going to walk through that.
• 0:42
  Speaker 1: And then there is a little bit of a word of caution actually a massive word of caution a 2 pm warning.
• 0:47
  Speaker 1: What does that mean?
• 0:49
  Speaker 1: Well, I'll explain it all in good order and I will also tell you why inflation is apparently over.
• 0:55
  Speaker 1: I've got a very good insight there on that note.
• 0:57
  Speaker 1: So, on that note, let me share my screen with you here.
• 1:00
  Speaker 1: There we go and you can see what I'm looking at, what we've got in store for you and good news.
• 1:07
  Speaker 1: Some of you want bad news.
• 1:08
  Speaker 1: Start with the bad, start with the bad.
• 1:10
  Speaker 1: Okay, I like that.
• 1:11
  Speaker 1: So we've got here one why bolts should turn bullish before you go on a buying sweep Some things you need to know if you want good news.
• 1:18
  Speaker 1: We've got even more good news.
• 1:19
  Speaker 1: We've got so far good news.
• 1:20
  Speaker 1: We've got the number six, the 2 pm warning for today, and then number seven, the inflation story.
• 1:25
  Speaker 1: If you want all those seven stories, if you think those things will be useful for you, then smash the you-know-what and write seven in the chat and that way Winston might actually lift his head.
• 1:34
  Speaker 1: Winston, hey, winston, you know why he's looking that direction.
• 1:39
  Speaker 1: That's the direction of the door.
• 1:40
  Speaker 1: He wants to go into the park.
• 1:42
  Speaker 1: I think he can smell one of his golden retriever friends in the park.
• 1:45
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, we've got some really nice stuff.
• 1:48
  Speaker 1: Himson has so far definitely some good stuff in there.
• 1:59
  Speaker 1: But let's walk through this step by step, shall we?
• 2:04
  Speaker 1: Jp Morgan biggest, most important thanks for all the sevens guys.
• 2:05
  Speaker 1: Biggest, most important investment bank out there, according to JP Morgan.
• 2:07
  Speaker 1: They put out a morning briefing here and this is the beginning of it.
• 2:09
  Speaker 1: The whole thing was rather lengthy, I'll summarize it for you and they said US market intel makes them sound important to use words like intel, it's like they're in the CIA or something.
• 2:20
  Speaker 1: No, no, you're just pushing paper.
• 2:21
  Speaker 1: But anyway, they're saying we've updated our tactical view to bullish Now note the word tactical, because that's important and they're bullish on mega cap techs, cyclicals, and they're now suddenly bearish on defensives and foreign stocks, including LATAM.
• 2:41
  Speaker 1: They can't write Latin America, they don't know how to spell it, so they write lat-am.
• 2:45
  Speaker 1: It also makes them feel a little bit more again like they're actually in the CIA, which they're not, so that's important.
• 2:53
  Speaker 1: Now, what does that mean?
• 2:55
  Speaker 1: Well, I've been saying this for about a week and a half now that I'm bullish short-term, right, I put out a note again for you guys in the community.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: Again.
• 3:04
  Speaker 1: Now that I'm bullish short term, right, I put out a note again for you guys in the community again Yesterday.
• 3:12
  Speaker 1: Same story bullish short term, rather concerned long term because we don't know what the heck's going to happen.
• 3:15
  Speaker 1: So what's making us bullish here?
• 3:16
  Speaker 1: Well, there is a number of factors.
• 3:17
  Speaker 1: One is that we have big tech earnings and we're expecting those to come in Pretty, pretty good.
• 3:24
  Speaker 1: Sofi came in very, very nicely today, for example, with the bigger boys obviously about to report.
• 3:31
  Speaker 1: That's good news.
• 3:32
  Speaker 1: We're also expecting some sort of de-escalation on tariffs and I'll get back to that in the good news part.
• 3:39
  Speaker 1: So basically the whole tariff story.
• 3:42
  Speaker 1: We just assume that the market's going to get bored of it or just there'll be a little more.
• 3:46
  Speaker 1: That the market's going to get bored of it or just there'll be a little more exemptions and all that kind of stuff.
• 3:50
  Speaker 1: So some good stuff there.
• 3:51
  Speaker 1: And spain's got his light back.
• 3:53
  Speaker 1: Seriously, spain and portugal lost their power for about 24 hours.
• 3:58
  Speaker 1: Uh, talk about the marvels of uh, renewable power, right, I don't know what the heck I caused that, but yeah, it's basically earnings.
• 4:06
  Speaker 1: It's just like we think.
• 4:07
  Speaker 1: We assumed it was going to be worse.
• 4:10
  Speaker 1: Now we're assuming it's going to get a little bit better and then it might get a little bit worse again, which is what we need to talk about.
• 4:17
  Speaker 1: So, before you run out and buy all your stocks today and I'm looking at the poll here and I love that you guys are so honest in these polls, that you guys are so honest in these polls, so 40% of you are not sure and that kind of should be a warning to everybody else out there who's like okay, I'm feeling bullish, but why are you feeling bullish?
• 4:34
  Speaker 1: Right, give me some hard facts.
• 4:35
  Speaker 1: And for the 40% of you who are actually not sure, well, it's because you don't know what makes the market bullish or bearish.
• 4:43
  Speaker 1: Right, it's completely normal.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: It's completely natural.
• 4:45
  Speaker 1: You haven't been taught those rules, but there are some actually hard rules on that.
• 4:48
  Speaker 1: And then, for you bears out there, you're going to miss out on some tremendous opportunities.
• 4:53
  Speaker 1: Now, you bulls out there, you're probably going to buy the usual stuff that went up in 2023 and 2024.
• 4:59
  Speaker 1: And guess what?
• 5:00
  Speaker 1: That might not do so well, in 2025, because the game has just changed.
• 5:06
  Speaker 1: So if you want to understand the rules and try winning a game without understanding the rules, it's pretty tough Come and learn them.
• 5:13
  Speaker 1: They're completely free.
• 5:14
  Speaker 1: I'll give them to you at phoenixfriendsorg slash.
• 5:17
  Speaker 1: Get free, because that's how I got free, that's how I got to retire in my early 40s and that's how I get to hang out here with my little hound down there and we have fun and we enjoy doing this and I love teaching this because it's just.
• 5:31
  Speaker 1: It has an amazing impact on people's lives.
• 5:32
  Speaker 1: Like, literally, the messages I get every day.
• 5:34
  Speaker 1: Just as cool.
• 5:35
  Speaker 1: I should share more of them with you.
• 5:36
  Speaker 1: I'll try to do more of that to inspire.
• 5:38
  Speaker 1: But yeah, so just if you're going to go to phoenixtransitorg, get free and actually learn the rules and I'll put that into the chat for you as well.
• 5:46
  Speaker 1: There it is.
• 5:48
  Speaker 1: Then let me know, just put GF in the chat, get free, as in, get your backside free.
• 5:58
  Speaker 1: Okay, here is the actual detail from JP Morgan, the bit that really matters.
• 6:04
  Speaker 1: They're saying this differs from past bullish calls.
• 6:15
  Speaker 1: One is technical in nature, it's not fundamental, which means um, thank brent, thanks brent, I appreciate that and denise as well.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: Appreciate that.
• 6:20
  Speaker 1: Guys.
• 6:21
  Speaker 1: And for john and jip and nicholas and brent and all you guys writing gf, and there you're gonna.
• 6:25
  Speaker 1: You're literally never gonna look at the market the same way again because we're literally gonna change that for you completely in 15 minutes.
• 6:31
  Speaker 1: It's amazing once you understand how this actually works and the reason I know it is not because I'm smart and I figured it out.
• 6:36
  Speaker 1: No, it's just I have people who taught me, people who worked in banks, people who worked in hedge funds, people who worked on the trading for also exchanges.
• 6:43
  Speaker 1: They're the ones who taught me and I'm just passing it on essentially.
• 6:47
  Speaker 1: Well, winston's really obviously the one passing it on.
• 6:49
  Speaker 1: He's the real brains behind this no-transcript.
• 6:54
  Speaker 1: He's a bit miffed with me.
• 6:55
  Speaker 1: So they're saying here technical means charts.
• 7:00
  Speaker 1: Technical means charts.
• 7:01
  Speaker 1: Fundamentals would mean earnings are going to be amazing or something.
• 7:05
  Speaker 1: No, we're not talking about the economy, we're not talking about earnings.
• 7:07
  Speaker 1: First, the combination you've got light positioning, low liquidity and, very basically, a lot of investors are not invested because they're unsure, like 40% of you are here, and then the absence of negative news, such as tariff headlines, makes them feel good.
• 7:23
  Speaker 1: Second, mega cap tech earnings may give the market a tailwind.
• 7:27
  Speaker 1: They're expecting good earnings from the big boys like Google, just, and the potential for an announced trade deal or at least a memorandum of understanding.
• 7:37
  Speaker 1: If we get one of those, life could be good.
• 7:39
  Speaker 1: And we might get one of those today.
• 7:40
  Speaker 1: It might be India, it might be Japan.
• 7:42
  Speaker 1: I think those are probably the two first candidates.
• 7:44
  Speaker 1: You get one of those in the can and we're going to go up quite nicely.
• 7:49
  Speaker 1: So JP Morgan thinks the pain trade is higher.
• 7:51
  Speaker 1: Now, what's the pain trade?
• 7:53
  Speaker 1: Well, they know how many people are short.
• 7:56
  Speaker 1: If you're shorting a stock and you close your position because you are losing your shorts, what do you do?
• 8:02
  Speaker 1: How do you close a short, you've got to buy the stock, and that therefore drives the stock up even more and makes it a rather painful thing for a lot of people.
• 8:12
  Speaker 1: Scott, I appreciate you.
• 8:13
  Speaker 1: Thanks, my friend, and we'll look at hymns in just a moment as well.
• 8:16
  Speaker 1: It's just a little too exciting.
• 8:18
  Speaker 1: But let me give you a little bit more general good news, not just for the hymn slot out there.
• 8:22
  Speaker 1: Buybacks, right, I mentioned to you last week that buybacks came back last Friday and we are right now somewhere here and that means about 40% of the buybacks are back.
• 8:36
  Speaker 1: And that means about 40% of the buybacks are back.
• 8:38
  Speaker 1: So when we go into, kind of end of May so what's the 21st of May here, we're going to be at full buyback mode, which means all these big companies are buying their own stocks in some incredibly large fashion.
• 8:53
  Speaker 1: Now, how much are they buying?
• 8:54
  Speaker 1: Well, that chart didn't come out too well, did it?
• 8:57
  Speaker 1: Whoops, I'll decipher it for you, okay, I shall explain.
• 9:04
  Speaker 1: There was obviously a white background behind this.
• 9:06
  Speaker 1: In its original, companies have authorized 1.35 trillion in buybacks.
• 9:14
  Speaker 1: That's authorized in buybacks.
• 9:15
  Speaker 1: That's authorized.
• 9:17
  Speaker 1: We expect, out of that, 2025 buys to be about 1.06 trillion.
• 9:28
  Speaker 1: Why is there a difference?
• 9:34
  Speaker 1: The rest will roll over into 2026.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: That's very significant.
• 9:36
  Speaker 1: It's the biggest amount of buybacks ever, it's the biggest single buyer of stocks and that's very, very useful, very, very supportive, and it's starting to roll right off.
• 9:44
  Speaker 1: So that's good news, right?
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: Is that good news?
• 9:48
  Speaker 1: Is that useful?
• 9:49
  Speaker 1: Is that useful information to understand when these guys are buying?
• 9:51
  Speaker 1: If it is put a one in the chat and I know that you're alive and I know that you're alive here is the third piece of good news.
• 9:59
  Speaker 1: Just so much good news today.
• 10:01
  Speaker 1: It's kind of hard to handle.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: Really.
• 10:02
  Speaker 1: I don't know what we'll do with all of it.
• 10:08
  Speaker 1: Trump has apparently rolled back on automotive tariffs on parts, so essentially foreign auto parts which were going to be taxed at 25%.
• 10:18
  Speaker 1: Thanks for all the ones guys.
• 10:19
  Speaker 1: They're going to get reimbursed for those tariffs up to a certain cap 3.75% of the value of a US-made car for one year.
• 10:31
  Speaker 1: So it's some weird sort of refund rebate.
• 10:34
  Speaker 1: So they're going to get money back and that's, of course, very good for car companies.
• 10:40
  Speaker 1: But it's not just good for car companies.
• 10:42
  Speaker 1: It's good for anybody getting really, really hit hard by tariffs, because it shows that Trump doesn't want to hit these guys that hard if there isn't an alternative supply and car parts is one of those things that takes a few years probably to get the supply to somewhere where it isn't right now.
• 11:03
  Speaker 1: Canada you Canadians waited for the former Bank of England governor.
• 11:11
  Speaker 1: I saw some of you in the chat there, which is, yeah, I was going to say, moronic, but it is, of course, your choice.
• 11:19
  Speaker 1: You're a democracy.
• 11:20
  Speaker 1: You can elect whoever you like, but he's a choice of more of the same.
• 11:25
  Speaker 1: That's really what that man stands for, so good luck.
• 11:29
  Speaker 1: I don't actually know anything about the other candidate.
• 11:31
  Speaker 1: To be honest with you.
• 11:32
  Speaker 1: I only know a little bit about Carney, because he happened to be Bank of England governor and I thought he did a particularly atrocious job at that.
• 11:39
  Speaker 1: So, yeah, good luck.
• 11:41
  Speaker 1: Here is another one.
• 11:42
  Speaker 1: Good luck.
• 11:43
  Speaker 1: I thought the caption to this image was pretty good.
• 11:47
  Speaker 1: My God, sell everything Tomorrow, which is today, so today, at 2pm Eastern Time today.
• 11:55
  Speaker 1: This picture was from yesterday.
• 11:57
  Speaker 1: Howard Lutnick speaks.
• 11:59
  Speaker 1: Last time he spoke, the market went down 98%, I think something like that, so it'll be interesting to see what he's going to say.
• 12:05
  Speaker 1: Went down 98%, I think something like that, so it'll be interesting to see what he's going to say.
• 12:07
  Speaker 1: It does seem that they're on a little bit of a sort of boy band setup where they're trying to kind of talk the market up.
• 12:14
  Speaker 1: But Ludnick doesn't have a very good track record of that.
• 12:16
  Speaker 1: He normally says all the wrong things, all the things that the market hates.
• 12:23
  Speaker 1: Right, carney did warn the UK about Brexit.
• 12:28
  Speaker 1: Hmm, interesting.
• 12:29
  Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't think Brexit was the problem.
• 12:31
  Speaker 1: I think the problem is that governments since haven't done anything with it.
• 12:34
  Speaker 1: You're basically still in the EU, you just don't get a say in it.
• 12:37
  Speaker 1: It's a really moronic Brexit.
• 12:38
  Speaker 1: It's like leaving the club and still being bound by its rules.
• 12:41
  Speaker 1: It's like why Spineless leadership?
• 12:45
  Speaker 1: I think that's really why.
• 12:49
  Speaker 1: But yes, dave says 3,000 viewers and 320 likes.
• 12:51
  Speaker 1: Really, yes, you're right, it's a scandal, isn't it?
• 12:53
  Speaker 1: It's a scandal, so do something about that please.
• 12:56
  Speaker 1: Now, this is the Fed Whisperer.
• 12:58
  Speaker 1: Do you guys know this guy, nick Timiraus?
• 13:01
  Speaker 1: He works at the Washington, what's not, and probably the only guy there with well, not the only guy there, but he's one of the guys there with a brain and he is saying that Jerome Powell's favorite inflation number is going to come in at about 0.08% for March 0.08.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: I, march 0.08.
• 13:26
  Speaker 1: I mean, why don't we just call it zero, so there is no inflation, and that should be very, very, very, very good for the market.
• 13:34
  Speaker 1: This is coming out on Wednesday, I believe.