Latest / Global Business insights / Nigeria Sep. Inflation Falls to 14.63% in Fourth Monthly Decline

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Nigeria Sep. Inflation Falls to 14.63% in Fourth Monthly Decline · Global Business insights

• 0:06
  SPEAKER_00: Nigeria inflation falls to 14.63% in a fourth monthly decline.
• 0:16
  SPEAKER_00: Inflation remains a major concern for Nigerians months before the national election.
• 0:23
  SPEAKER_00: Headline inflation eased for a fourth month to 14.63% in September 2026, but prices remain high.
• 0:32
  SPEAKER_00: Food inflation was 19.59%, down from 20.16% a year earlier, while energy inflation more than doubled from 4.69% in August to 10.85%.
• 0:49
  SPEAKER_00: Core inflation, however, rose 1.1% month on month following a 0.06% decline in August, signaling persistent price pressures and challenge for the Central Bank of Nigeria.
• 1:05
  SPEAKER_00: Last month, the central bank uh surprised investors, that's the Monetary Policy Committee, by adjusting its benchmark rate by 350 basis points to 23%, citing effective earlier tightening and a gap with market rates.
• 1:24
  SPEAKER_00: With another inflation reading due before its 23 to 24 November NPC meeting, policymakers will decide whether to resume easing.
• 1:36
  SPEAKER_00: Also recently, the finance minister, Mr.
• 1:38
  SPEAKER_00: Oyedili, announced measures including NNPC, the government-owned oil conglomerate, foregoing its profits and selling petrol at a significantly discounted uh price to help reduce costs borne by consumers.
• 1:54
  SPEAKER_00: This would also reduce inflationary pressures.
• 1:58
  SPEAKER_00: However, Nigeria's economy continues to strengthen the Stambik IBTC Bank.
• 2:03
  SPEAKER_00: Nigeria PMI rose as purchasing managers index rose from 54.3 in August to 56.4 in September 2026.
• 2:14
  SPEAKER_00: Its strongest private sector improvement in over four and a half years.
• 2:20
  SPEAKER_00: New orders and output grew at the fastest pace since February 2022 across all four sectors.
• 2:28
  SPEAKER_00: Firms increased purchasing, producing the largest inventory buildup since late 2021.
• 2:36
  SPEAKER_00: Employment rose for a 16th month, though hiring remained modest.
• 2:42
  SPEAKER_00: All four sectors improved in September, a stronger demand, new orders, and product launches boosted activity.
• 2:49
  SPEAKER_00: Hiring increased mainly through temporary rolls.
• 2:52
  SPEAKER_00: Higher fuel transport, material labor, and food costs pushed output price inflation to a three-month high.
• 3:00
  SPEAKER_00: The strong quarter suggests Q3 2026 GDP growth of about 4.56% year on year and full year growth of roughly 4.4%, up from 3.87% in 2025.
• 3:18
  SPEAKER_00: The non-oil sector should outperform last year, led by manufacturing while ICT, trade, real estate, finance, and insurance remained the main services drivers.
• 3:30
  SPEAKER_00: It was no surprise that at the ongoing IMF Analysting meetings, Nigeria's GDP growth projection for 2026 was upgraded to 4.2% from 4.1%.
• 3:45
  SPEAKER_00: But there's still more good news for the Nigerian economy.
• 3:48
  SPEAKER_00: Feature ratings raised the outlooks for nine Nigerian banks and two bank holding companies from stable to positive, citing stronger economic policies, foreign exchange reserves, and improved operating conditions.
• 4:04
  SPEAKER_00: The move follows its 9th of October revision of Nigeria's B long-term IDR outlook to positive, reflecting sustained reforms and confidence that policy momentum will continue despite approaching elections.
• 4:21
  SPEAKER_00: Fitch affirmed the institution's B long-term issuer default ratings, so their credit ratings remain unchanged.
• 4:30
  SPEAKER_00: This is Bodio Shosani, and hello, welcome to Global Business Insights, where we go in more depth into the headlines, moving markets, and what it means for business.
• 4:42
  SPEAKER_00: Egyptian Exchange International Relations Head Rehab Salam says Aliko Dangote and Dangote Industries executives are joining an investor session to broaden African participation in the refinery's initial uh public offer.
• 5:01
  SPEAKER_00: The talks could lead to an Egyptian depository receipt program after the listing.
• 5:07
  SPEAKER_00: Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals FZE extended applications by two weeks to the 27th of October as its team establishes access for investors across Africa.
• 5:22
  SPEAKER_00: It aims to raise$1.6 billion, potentially rising to about$2.1 billion.
• 5:29
  SPEAKER_00: Hundreds protested the IMF meetings in Bangkok, saying its decisions favor rich countries and exclude poorer communities, especially in terms of imputes.
• 5:41
  SPEAKER_00: Thailand, like many energy importing developing economies, have struggled with oil above$100 a barrel amid the Iran war.
• 5:48
  SPEAKER_00: The IMF also had warned that rising prices and debt are widening inequality across many of its 191 member countries.
• 6:24
  SPEAKER_00: That's in 2026.
• 6:26
  SPEAKER_00: China's uh 2026 growth eased to 4.5%, and India's rose sharply to 7% from 6.4%.
• 6:36
  SPEAKER_00: South Africa's 2026 GDP growth forecast was cut to 1% from 1.1%.
• 6:44
  SPEAKER_00: African Department Director Zayn Zaydin said sub-Saharan Africa's resilience reflects tough reforms and adaptation.
• 6:54
  SPEAKER_00: He warned that meeting today's needs must not undermine future growth, stressing the need to protect vulnerable people, maintain stability, and sustain productive investment.
• 7:09
  SPEAKER_00: US wholesale prices rose in September at their fastest pace in nearly four years, driven mainly by energy costs.
• 7:17
  SPEAKER_00: The producer price index, which tracks prices charged by producers, jumped 6.3%, the biggest increase since December 2022 and above the 5.4% forecast.
• 7:32
  SPEAKER_00: Excluding food and energy, PPI rose 0.7% month and month against expectations of 0.3%, while annual core PPI increased to 5.0% from 4.7% in August.
• 7:49
  SPEAKER_00: As a leading indicator, the index suggests consumer inflation may rise as producers pass on higher costs.
• 7:59
  SPEAKER_00: The data followed consumer inflation figures showing US inflation rose in September as gasoline and other costs increased weeks before midterm elections focused on living costs.
• 8:13
  SPEAKER_00: Annual inflation climbed to 3.7% from 3.4% in August, while monthly inflation rose to a five-month high of 0.6% from 0.4%.
• 8:27
  SPEAKER_00: After two days of stronger than expected inflation data, analysts say the Fed, that's the Reserve Bank, may consider another rate rise this year, though not necessarily this month.
• 8:41
  SPEAKER_00: US retail sales rose 0.8% in September, beating the 0.3% forecast after a revised uh bumper 1.3% gain in August.
• 8:53
  SPEAKER_00: Higher petrol prices supported spending, while sales excluding petrol uh stations increased just 0.2%.
• 9:03
  SPEAKER_00: Still on the US at the IMF's meetings, we bring a clip of recently concluded uh chat, a discussion with US Fed Chair Kevin Walsh as he comments ahead of the next um federal open market committee meeting scheduled for October 27th to 28th, 2026.
• 9:26
  SPEAKER_02: And decent macro policy and strong micro foundations can lead to an investment surge.
• 9:31
  SPEAKER_02: It's probably the most important thing that's happening in the global economy on the upside.
• 9:36
  SPEAKER_02: But to be balanced, as we central bankers have to be, you know, I came out of meetings here yesterday and today, and it's hard to be in a discussion with central bankers and not compare notes and hear the same thing about the surge in prices.
• 9:51
  SPEAKER_02: It obviously affects each of us differently.
• 9:54
  SPEAKER_02: Um at the Federal Reserve, we made very clear that we would deliver price stability, and we removed a dose of accommodation about a month ago.
• 10:02
  SPEAKER_02: I don't prejudge meetings, I don't believe in uh saying now what I might do at the meetings that we have in the balance of this year.
• 10:11
  SPEAKER_02: I'd say the advent of this new technology is probably the most consequential change for the US and the global economy in my lifetime at this point.
• 10:22
  SPEAKER_02: Um so I take it seriously, but as a central banker, also soberly, responsibly, um, I'd say it's gonna do several things.
• 10:31
  SPEAKER_02: First, it's obviously hitting the demand side of the economy before it's gonna hit the supply side of the economy.
• 10:38
  SPEAKER_02: See, if you're a central banker and you're in the business of trying to ensure stable prices and full employment, you've got to recognize this is a shock.
• 10:46
  SPEAKER_02: But it's a positive supply shock in the medium term.
• 10:49
  SPEAKER_02: I do fundamentally believe that.
• 10:52
  SPEAKER_02: But on the path to that positive supply shock, we're seeing increases in aggregate demand.
• 10:57
  SPEAKER_02: That just is what it is.
• 10:59
  SPEAKER_02: But I think of this shock differently than those other shocks you talked about.
• 11:02
  SPEAKER_02: Shocks of war and military conflict and the rest.
• 11:06
  SPEAKER_02: This one, there really is uh, I think, a huge benefit to the global economy, to the US economy over the horizon.
• 11:14
  SPEAKER_02: So that's one comment.
• 11:15
  SPEAKER_02: Second, it's a big deal for central banks because we're in the business of trying to, in some ways, distill noisy data all over the world.
• 11:25
  SPEAKER_02: We get some of that from official statistics in the US, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Bureau of Economic Affairs.
• 11:33
  SPEAKER_02: We torture data with old-fashioned models to try to find out what's underlying inflation trends.
• 11:40
  SPEAKER_02: Not so long from now, it won't be torture.
• 11:43
  SPEAKER_02: We will have access at the fingertips of central banks to all the information in the world.
• 11:49
  SPEAKER_02: And we'll be able to use new analytical tools to distill that data.
• 11:54
  SPEAKER_02: So when we get new information, we're gonna have a lot more confidence in what it tells us as we're looking outside the window and saying, is that real or is that lagged and noisy data subject to mismeasurement?
• 12:07
  SPEAKER_02: So I think it's gonna fundamentally change the conduct of monetary policy as a second point.
• 12:14
  SPEAKER_02: Third, it's gonna change the real economy.
• 12:16
  SPEAKER_02: Uh, we don't know in the next 12 or 18 months its effect on employment.
• 12:22
  SPEAKER_02: But if you believe, like I believe, which is it will make uh economies in countries that put it to good use more productive, that it's going to make it so that we will have more wealth, then that has to be a very good thing.
• 12:38
  SPEAKER_02: But the path from where we are to there is likely to be a very bumpy one.
• 12:42
  SPEAKER_02: Bumpy in our understanding of the technology, bumpy because we really don't know what the market structure is going to be of these new technologies.
• 12:49
  SPEAKER_02: Who's going to get to make the money?
• 12:51
  SPEAKER_02: What are the consequences for those that bet they were going to make money, but the market structure doesn't allow it?
• 12:56
  SPEAKER_02: So I want you to hear from me optimism, but optimism leavened by the seriousness of purpose to the day jobs that you and I have.
• 13:07
  SPEAKER_00: Yesterday, some good news for the UK as its economy, according to the Statistics Office, grew by 1.2% in the first half of 2026.
• 13:20
  SPEAKER_00: Also the fastest growth in the G7 group of large wealthy countries.
• 13:25
  SPEAKER_00: This was due to strong household demand and investments, including in artificial intelligence.
• 13:33
  SPEAKER_00: This week, results from Wall Street's biggest banks showed that even the industry's largest players remain vulnerable to capital market swings.
• 13:44
  SPEAKER_00: Third quarter deal making slowed, hurting investment banking as rising bond yields, volatile artificial intelligence trading and geopolitical concerns unsettled investors and corporate boards, further delaying the anticipated recovery in mergers, acquisitions, and IPOs.
• 14:05
  SPEAKER_00: In the US, the Dow Jones industrial average, however, rose, closing over 500 points, higher as concerns around tech companies overspending on artificial intelligence led investors to rotate out of the trade and seek uh value elsewhere.
• 14:23
  SPEAKER_00: Markets are also digesting US data, pointing to persistent inflation for clues on how the FOMC will act later in the month.
• 14:33
  SPEAKER_00: That's it for this special episode of Global Business Insights.
• 14:37
  SPEAKER_00: You can catch us on Spotify, Apple, YouTube podcasts, and most popular uh podcast platforms where you get um your news from.
• 14:48
  SPEAKER_00: Thanks for watching.
• 14:49
  SPEAKER_00: Bye bye.