Latest / Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation / PGA Round 3 Showdown | March 8, 2023 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process

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PGA Round 3 Showdown | March 8, 2023 | DraftKings DFS Picks, Plays and Process · Daily Fantasy Sports by Ship It Nation

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Stip's going clear. We left up what's going on? Everyone, Welcome to
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the ship at Nation Round three showdown show for the Arnold Palmer Invitational, and
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it was very interesting. Round three we saw our guy Scottie Scheffler make his
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way to the top of the leaderboard, had a phenomenal round five hundred round
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of the day. It's gonna be tough to beat this guy at this course,
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uh this weekend. So you know, we'll go through see what we
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can find for for some plays here uh for for round three. I've talked
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through some strategy as well, and you guys are always welcome to put some
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questions in the chat. We'll cover some questions as well, a couple things
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again, we appreciate all your support, and let me get back on the
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proper set up here. All right, we're good to go. Yeah,
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So a bunch of guys I haven't sorted here by the score on DraftKings,
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so just boom right here. Not necessarily the price. We'll do it a
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couple different ways, but the score is pretty important because they haven't eliminated the
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guys that got cut, and it looks like, you know, we got
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Let's see, you know, we talked about the strategy on the main sleight
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where got to play it like a no cut event. How many guys did
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get cut? Let's see one, two, three, four, five,
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six, seven, eight, nine, ten, eleven of the sixty nine
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guys got cut source in with fifty eight guys, so a majority of the
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field obviously got through. The big names that missed the cut. I don't
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know if Matthew Fitzpatrick is a big name, but he missed the cut.
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Adam Scott probably the highest owed guy that got cut, Justin Rose Morikawa obviously
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pretty popular, Fleetwood popular, and Kidiyama to get some ownership as well.
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So I haven't seen what the six of six percentages are, but again,
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you know it's a large major already the field got through, but there are
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some higher own guys that that missed the cut. So I'm curious to see
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if anyone in the chat. Yeah, I guess I can't watch live.
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Can I assume Scotty Putter putt it better today? Yeah? Absolutely, And
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that's what we talked about on that main show. It's like I don't care,
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like what sort of Putter he's using, Like, as long as he's
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trying something new, it can't hurt him. And and today that Putter obviously
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did pay up. They know he made some long ones. But yeah,
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if anyone has a six or six percentage, go ahead and toss that in
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there. Curious what that is at. But going into tomorrow, safe to
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say Scotty Scheffler will be pretty popular and I've now sorted it by price.
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He's eleven five, and I mean, the guy is just like the best
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golfer in the world right now. I don't even think it's particularly close in
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terms of like the main slight stuff. I played right around fifty percent Scottie
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at like twenty five or thirty. Rory he's just so much better than Rory
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McElroy. And I know people people love their Rordy mckilroy stuff, but Scotty
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Shuffler is just so much better. And I don't really care ken Rory beat
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him in one round. Yeah, I think Rory's gonna play for tomorrow.
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But if deciding between spending on Scotty and Rory, I'm just going with Scotty.
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I mean, he is so so, so good and he's just better
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than Rury McElroy. But I get at eight hundred dollars one round stuff,
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like, Yeah, I would have both these guys in my playpool. I
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think they're both strong options going into tomorrow. Victor Hovlin had a good round,
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bounce back nicely. He's now sitting at four under top ten ten point
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three k. He's played well at this event. He's a guy that you
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can definitely play today Xander at ten to one. The one thing I did
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want to mention actually before we fully hop into all this is tomorrow. The
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weather looks it looks rough. It's gonna be like fifteen to twenty mile an
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hour sustained wins, and it looks like gustin to the thirty. So there
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should be some carnage. This course is difficult, and like this is These
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are the sort of courses like there should be more courses like this on tour
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where the rough is so deep. If you miss the fairway, you're paying
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a penalty, and that's what these guys are encountering this week. You miss
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the fairway, you are going to pay a penalty. I mean there's a
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huge disadvantage to missing the fairway. Some of these courses, that disadvantage just
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doesn't exist. It should be there. If you miss the green left right
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disadvantage, you're in this thick, thick rough that's hard to get out of.
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So I do like the setup, but in terms of tomorrow, it's
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gonna be very windy. It's gonna be very difficult for these guys to control
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their shots, and I think we see some huge scores. I mean we
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could see this leaderboard completely shift tomorrow because of this weather and this wind.
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So Hovelin good with at ten to three. Xander Shaffley played well today.
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He's sitting what does he He's two under, sitting t twenty third, He's
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ten point one k. He's fine as well. All four of these guys
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in the ten k range I think are fine plays tomorrow. I'd rank them
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Scotti, Victor, Xander, and then Rory would be the fourth option for
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me for tomorrow. Coming down in this nine k range can't lay played well
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today, looked really bad yesterday, bounced back fine today to make the cut.
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Jordan's beef up and down round. He got way up there. I
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think he got to five under, then kind of fell apart on the back.
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Nine fine going to him if you want to do that. And then
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Obert at ninety three hundred. People probably avoid him tomorrow because he's three over,
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has not played well, but I'd be fine going to him. Sam
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Burns up and down round. I believe he got up to five or six
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hundred, then settled at four under. And then zalatorus man these bottom two
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guys I like a lot. Zalatoris Thomas what do we know about Xalatori's he
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plays tough courses very well, and we've seen that so far. He's sitting
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seventh at six under, one shot off the lead. And then j T
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last year was probably the best win player on tour like he did. I
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mean he sucked last year, don't get me wrong, but in these windy,
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tough conditions he got the job done. So looking at this nine k
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range and JT and Zalad Taurus are definitely my favorites, and they're the two
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cheapest, so it makes it easy, you know, can't lay speeth Obert
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Burns. Yeah, I mean I'm impartial on those guys, but in this
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range, definitely, Zala Tarris and j T are the two that I like
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the most. Morikawa obviously missed the cut. He was pretty popular. We've
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got Cam Young, Homa the Gala, Jason Day, and then Wyndham Clark,
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Shane Lowry, Connors and Tom Kim in the eight k range. Just
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talking through this the guys that stand, Let's start with the guys that I'll
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be off of. I'm gonna be off Tom Kim tomorrow. He barely made
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the cut. I don't like this course for him. I think he's a
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totally fine fade. Fitzpatrick and Fleetwood obviously missed the cut. We're not playing
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them. They will be eliminated from the player pool here. But I do
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like Cam Young and I do like Shane Lowry. Now I don't want to
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play all those guys up top that are seven under, but Lowry, I
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think is a good play tomorrow with these tougher conditions. You want Lowry in
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the tough conditions. He's used to playing in the wind, so he's a
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play for me. And then you know, Cam Young, Homa and Connors
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are the ones I like. I can get off Wyndham Clark, I can
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get off Jason Day, I can get off the Galla. The ones I
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really like in this eight k range gonna be Lowry, Connor's Cam Young for
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sure, and then then Homa. Those four are the ones they'll be on.
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But again with Shane Lowry, I don't typically like playing these guys that
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are at the top, but I'm gonna make the exception with him tomorrow because
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I think, you know, he can really thrive in these tougher conditions.
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Tomorrow, these windy conditions, We'll go like seventy five one hundred and above.
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Jake Napp barely snuck in tomorrow. Tough conditions tomorrow. I think I'm
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good being off of him. Grio continues to play well. I think he's
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fine. Min Wu is fine. You know it's funny now he's a thousand
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dollars more expensive than the main slate. Sitting at seventy six, Chris Kirk,
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I think is a guy that can definitely play well in these conditions tomorrow.
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I like him at seventy Sung j played well today. Finally, I
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mean this is a course that Sun Jay typically plays solid at. He's been
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a disaster as of late. I'd be fine going to him in tougher conditions
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tomorrow. Henley, he's one of those guys at seven hundred, I'm fine
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stand away from him. Benny On was on him on the main slate.
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I'll stick with and then Hideki is a guy can be off tomorrow at seven
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hundreds. So in this upper seven range, my favorites are definitely gonna be
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Kirk in English right here in the middle, and then Benyon would be kind
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of the four that I like seventy five hundred to seventy nine hundred. Coming
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down to this lower range. I'm just staying on my guy Pavan. I've
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been playing him for weeks now. The results have been phenomenal. I could
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see him actually moving up tomorrow in these tougher conditions, so in on him.
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Keegan Bradley, I got a lot of him on the main slate,
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and I don't know. He scares me when things get pretty difficult, so
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I don't necessarily love him lower. No thanks, Cole, no thanks.
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I do like Hadwin a little bit. I like Van Royan, Hogi and
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then Brian Harmon's guy can be off tomorrow, like I don't want to play
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all those guys at seven K. When we get through all this, I'll
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resort it and talk about these top tier guys, but find being off of
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him not much interest in posting list Taylor and will definitely not Kidyama because he
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didn't make the cut. So the guys in the lower sevens that I'm interested
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in would be Pavan, Van Royan, had Within those are the three that
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I like. Again, fire off some questions. I'll circle back at the
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end and answer them. You know, so we'll be moving a little quicker
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because we don't have a ton of guys, So make sure to get some
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questions in there and I'll cover them at the end. Whatever it is,
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roster construction, specific plays, you know, whatever you guys want to talk
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about. Cam Davis bounce back nicely today. I did like him for a
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showdown. He was a guy that I had in the tier rankings. Yeah,
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I don't know torn on him. I like Straka over him. I
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think in the tougher conditions, Ekro continues to play well. I think he's
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a fine play down here at sixty seven Fouler, I'm fine just staying off
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off of Ricky Denny McCarthy. I think can survive the conditions tomorrow. You
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want guys that can make putts. There's gonna be a lot of long par
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putts tomorrow. McCarthy can knock him down. I think he's fine at sixty
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five. Bazeiden Hood I do like quite a bit at sixty four. Cheap
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price tag. You know he's played, you know, used to playing in
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some of this win stuff. Good with him. Ct PAN, I played
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it. Actually, my best team on the main fleet has ct Pans.
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I'm kind of rooting for him. I'll stay on CT at sixty two hundred,
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even in the tougher conditions, Seamus Power six k flat, Yeah,
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I'll give him a look. I'm gonna be open to play on you know
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a lot of six k guys if I need to to get more Scottie,
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to get more of these guys up top, I'm definitely open to expanding my
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player pool in that six K range a little bit more. So That's kind
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of where I'm att here on the pool the players for tomorrow. Again,
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just to reiterate that it's really important what you do with these guys that are
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seven under. There's six guys at seven under. Definitely in on Scotti,
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definitely in on Shane Lowry, Like I really like those two. Like those
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are by far my two favorites up here. I like Xala Tauris a ton
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just one off the lead at six under. He's good in tough conditions.
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So these guys that are all up here, Scheffler, Lowry, Xalatorus are
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the three that I like the most. All right, let's go through and
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talk about some of the stuff. Decky injury equals winning or contending. Yeah,
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I mean it is interesting because the news popped up late in the weeks
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that had some sort of back injury does not look like the backs bugging him
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at all currently sitting. Yeah, he's in that lead. He's part of
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the lead. And it's super frustrating because the injury guys have not paid off
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in the last like two seasons. Like if someone's been marked injured or coming
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back from injury, they have not paid off. The Decky is defying that
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because he's been He's been great. Let's see wins. Maybe a little lighter
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for the earliest guys, potentially, I mean just maybe a little bit.
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I haven't seen the tea times we see. If I'm pull that up real
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quick just to see how early they're going off, would have to be based
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on what I saw, I would have to be pretty early to have any
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sort of So the first guys are going off at like nine oh five am
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Eastern, I don't know. I think it's gonna be tough all day,
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So I'm not really leaning the early guys. I'm just assuming it's gonna be
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tough. Conditions for all these guys. Have them got hot at the end,
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as he continued at T one, I mean definitely possible. I mean
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Hoveland, I like guys at end strong, like going into the next round,
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and Hoveland, you know, moved way up the board. He moved
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way up the board after like the back nine, so I think he could
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definitely make a push. He's played well here, yeah, so I'm good
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with him. I definitely think you could move up. You guys can go
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ahead and put some uh more questions if you have him in here for sure.
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Just looking at some builds, you know what sort of builds do we
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get with Scotty. If you go Scotty and one, let's just plug in
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a random six K, We'll plug in Acro. So you're sitting at seventy
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nine hundred. Let's say we want to play one more guy in the nine
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K range Lake Xala Taurus as well. So pricing is still pretty soft.
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There's gonna be a lot of ways to get comfortable. Teams in can play
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you know, reliable guys down here. So you like tom Hogy, then
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you're back close to like a K. So it's gonna be easy to get
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in Scotty tomorrow. He's gonna be the highest own guy in the slate,
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and rightfully so, I mean, he's just the best golfer balanced builds.
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I'm not as interested in tomorrow because I just don't want to live in this
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range. I just prefer the Hovelins, the Schefflers, the Xanders of the
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world, even just way more than these guys down here. But if you
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want to to Zala Taurus JT, you play one cheaper guy I talked about
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Pavan and then you're back up here in the eight ish k range can play
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Connors and then you got like eighty two five less. So I definitely still
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prefer the Scotti builds. I want as much Scottie as possible tomorrow. I
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mean, the guy is just he's just too good. Are you specifically using
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a solver for lineup construction? Is it necessary to sim in your opinion,
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using Saber sim free Trail But uh no, I mean for me, I've
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had a ton of success. I mean, I'm not tooting my own horn,
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but I've had more success in PGA this season than just about anyone in
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the industry in terms of profitability. And I've never used a simulation tool ever,
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So it is not a necessity. Kind of be helpful, yeah,
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sure, but I think it's more helpful for the top one percent of DFS
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pros, not any including myself. Like I'm not even putting myself in that
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category because I can't find it to be useful. So no, you do
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not need to use simulation tools to make money playing DFS. I will stand
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by that statement. I think the only people that can benefit from simulation tools
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are people that are top end players and top end tech savvy players. You
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got to have that combination of it being a top end DFS player and being
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very tech savvy. In that combination is like less than one percent of people
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playing this game. Lud Ludwig Luckiest made cut of the area. Maybe.
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I mean those guys that plus three did did did kind of sneak in there.
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They were looking to be in trouble. Favorite six K guy for me
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tomorrow favorite six K guy is going to be Bozeyden, who I think he's
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you know, used to playing in these tougher, windier conditions. I think
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he can certainly get the job done tomorrow. And again, like getting the
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job done tomorrow is probably just making, you know, making sure your ass
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makes a lot of pars and not fall into big, big trouble because it's
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going to be very difficult tomorrow, so you know, just surviving, just
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holding on and trying to get past and that will get the job done tomorrow.
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So I think bazay and Hood is really good in that six kate range.
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If you guys have any more questions, fire him in there. I
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also like Ctpan that I talked about at sixty two acroad. I'm just staying
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on him, Like the guy's been good. He won last week, he's
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right there again this week at three unders. I think he's a totally fine
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option down there as well. At what is he? He is sixty seven,
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so good with him in that range. Any more questions anymore, I'll
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go back up to the top. Here's a question from really when diving deep
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into play reporter, do you look for guys that are poor across the board
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or do you automatically ignore them? And Ivan do you look for Yeah,
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I'm not sure if you're talking about like statistically, but I'm not a huge
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statistics guy in terms of, you know, looking at my golfers. I
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just kind of find the guys that I think fit course as well, opposed
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to looking at like the the very like individual specific type type statistics, like
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I know what you need to be successful on this course, and this is
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like one of those courses where you just have to be a well rounded golfer,
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and that's why I think over the weekend we see the cream kind of
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rate rise to the top, which we've kind of saw today. Scottie Shuffler
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makes the move up there. You know, Window Clark had a ton of
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success last year. Zella Taurus is creeping up, Hoveland is creeping up,
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Burns jt. Like at the end of the week here, you know,
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comes Sunday, I think we're going to see a pretty stacked leaderboard because man,
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you have to be very well rounded golfer to get the job done at
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this place. And then you know, throwing the weather as well, and
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the best golfers in the world clearly are good handling the weather as well.
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So it's kind of where we're at again. I appreciate the support here.
18:51
If you guys could hit the like hit the subscribe helps us out a ton.
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Get on over a ship at nation dot com. Check out all the
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nine gets you everything. We have you covered for all the main sports over
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there on DraftKings and FANDUL. Do you think that leaving more money on the
19:21
table will be a better lineup? Why not for this show? I mean
19:26
yeah, definitely. I mean showdown you can always leave the money on the
19:27
table. We saw it last week with our boy q S. Matt left
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like five grand on the table. Shit fifty k. Now you throw on
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the weather factor for tomorrow. There's gon be a lot of volatility out there,
19:37
so even more so tomorrow. I think leaving money on the table makes
19:41
sense. And you know it's not just like one, two, three hundred
19:45
dollars. You can leave big, big chunks, especially in the larger field
19:48
stuff. What's the main thing on the main contest on DraftKings. I think
19:52
I'm in here right now. It is it's pitch and put. There's like
19:56
over ten thousand people looks like so yeah, I mean you definitely are going
20:02
to want to do something a little bit different in those lineups for sure,
20:06
and a showdown is always more viable than the MAINSLA can do it on the
20:08
mainslide too. I mean it's been optimal lineups have been leaving two three thousand.
20:14
I'm not recommending building teams like that, but yeah, you can definitely
20:18
do it, but showdown for sure. The volatility tomorrow, in my opinion,
20:21
is going to be very high, so leaving money on the table is
20:23
one way to embrace that volatility. So yeah, that's going to do what
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everyone. I appreciate all the support. Again, if you could hit the
20:30
like, hit the subscribe on the way out, I'd be very helpful.
20:33
Let's get some of these ship at Nation logos to the top of the leaderboard.
20:36
Good luck to everyone in your contest tomorrow. As anything, do anything,