Latest / The President's Daily Brief / October 6th, 2026: Iran Is Losing Control of Its Biggest Bargaining Chip & U.S. Moves B-1 Bombers

Transcript

October 6th, 2026: Iran Is Losing Control of Its Biggest Bargaining Chip & U.S. Moves B-1 Bombers · The President's Daily Brief

• 0:12
  It's Tuesday,
• 0:13
  the 6th of October.
• 0:14
  Welcome to the President's Daily Brief.
• 0:16
  I'm Mike Baker,
• 0:17
  your eyes and ears
• 0:18
  on the world stage.
• 0:20
  All right,
• 0:20
  let's get briefed.
• 0:22
  First up,
• 0:22
  Iran's biggest bargaining chip
• 0:24
  may be starting to lose its value as Gulf oil exports recover to pre-war levels
• 0:30
  and pressure on the Iran-backed Houthis grows around the Bab al-Meb Strait.
• 0:34
  Later in the show,
• 0:35
  the US has pulled all of its B-1 bombers out of a key
• 0:39
  British air base amid growing security concerns
• 0:41
  over suspected plots targeting that facility.
• 0:45
  Plus,
• 0:45
  a former Russian serviceman
• 0:47
  accused by Ukraine of torturing prisoners of war,
• 0:50
  has been killed in a car bombing inside Russia.
• 0:53
  And in today's back of the brief,
• 0:55
  the FBI has arrested a woman accused
• 0:57
  of spying for China after she allegedly surveilled
• 1:00
  the US-based son
• 1:02
  of Taiwan's president.
• 1:04
  But first,
• 1:05
  today's PDB spotlight.
• 1:07
  The Iranian regime appears to be
• 1:08
  losing control of its biggest bargaining chip.
• 1:11
  For months now,
• 1:12
  Tehran's most powerful tool has been the threat that
• 1:15
  it can pose to the Strait of Hormuz.
• 1:17
  That narrow waterway carries roughly 1/5 of the
• 1:20
  world's crude oil and liquefied natural gas,
• 1:23
  and from the beginning of this war,
• 1:24
  Iran has relied on its ability to make that traffic dangerous,
• 1:28
  unpredictable,
• 1:29
  and expensive.
• 1:31
  But new shipping data suggests that leverage has now weakened considerably.
• 1:35
  According to Reuters,
• 1:36
  Gulf oil exports climbed back to pre-war levels for roughly half of September.
• 1:41
  By the end of the month,
• 1:42
  the seven-day moving average for crude exports had
• 1:45
  reached about 18.3 million barrels per day.
• 1:49
  On 14 separate days last month,
• 1:51
  exports matched or exceeded the levels seen before the war began.
• 1:56
  Now
• 1:56
  liquefied natural gas shipments to the region have also recovered,
• 2:00
  reaching their highest levels since February,
• 2:03
  and that is a serious problem for the Iranian regime.
• 2:07
  Tehran's leverage was never simply that it could fire missiles or drones at ships.
• 2:11
  The leverage came from its ability
• 2:13
  to impose a major economic cost on the US,
• 2:16
  the Gulf states,
• 2:17
  and the
• 2:17
  wider world by making K Hormuz unreliable.
• 2:20
  If Saudi Arabia,
• 2:21
  Iraq,
• 2:22
  tanker operators,
• 2:23
  and refiners
• 2:24
  can keep roughly normal volumes moving despite the danger,
• 2:27
  well,
• 2:28
  then Iran's threat
• 2:29
  obviously becomes less effective,
• 2:31
  possibly at at one point becomes moot,
• 2:34
  and there is another problem built into Tehran's strategy.
• 2:37
  It's got something of an expiration date.
• 2:39
  The longer their disruption of the strait continued,
• 2:42
  the better the region has become at adapting.
• 2:45
  Saudi Arabia is moving oil through both the Gulf and the Red Sea.
• 2:48
  Iraq has secured permission from some tankers to pass through Hormuz.
• 2:52
  Ship to ship transfers in the Gulf of Oman
• 2:54
  have surged to the point that analysts say they're approaching their limits.
• 2:58
  Of course,
• 2:58
  none of this is cheap or easy.
• 3:00
  Shipping costs do remain elevated.
• 3:02
  Routes are more complicated,
• 3:04
  and the risk has not disappeared.
• 3:06
  But the important point is that the system is
• 3:07
  learning how to function around Iran's pressure campaign,
• 3:11
  and just as that is happening,
• 3:13
  well,
• 3:14
  attacks on commercial shipping are suddenly increasing.
• 3:16
  I guess we could have seen that coming.
• 3:18
  Maritime intelligence firm Mariss says at least 7 incidents were recorded.
• 3:23
  In the last week,
• 3:24
  on October 1st,
• 3:25
  the Kuwaiti supertanker Kazima 3 was
• 3:29
  struck by an unknown projectile while passing through the strait,
• 3:32
  causing a fire on board.
• 3:34
  Then,
• 3:34
  on the 4th of October,
• 3:35
  the Liberian flagged tanker Lipsy was hit northeast of Oman,
• 3:39
  damaging its engine room.
• 3:40
  No casualties were reported in either of those attacks.
• 3:44
  British maritime authorities have also reported at least 1 attack per day
• 3:47
  in either the Strait of Hormuz or the Gulf of Aden since October 2nd.
• 3:52
  And there's one detail in the latest reporting that does really stand out.
• 3:56
  Marisks says the pattern of attacks may not
• 3:58
  reflect Iranian forces carefully selecting individual commercial vessels.
• 4:02
  Instead,
• 4:03
  analysts say Iran may be firing missiles into a predetermined engagement area,
• 4:08
  a kind of
• 4:09
  maritime kill box and
• 4:11
  allowing the weapons to acquire whatever radar
• 4:13
  targets are available inside that zone.
• 4:16
  We can't say with certainty that this is Iran's strategy,
• 4:18
  and
• 4:19
  we can't really know Tehran's precise motive
• 4:21
  for the recent increase in the attacks,
• 4:23
  but the timing
• 4:24
  is difficult to ignore.
• 4:25
  Oil exports are recovering.
• 4:27
  LNG shipments are climbing.
• 4:29
  Gulf states are finding ways
• 4:31
  to keep commerce moving.
• 4:32
  And just as Iran's grip on Hormuz appears to be loosening,
• 4:35
  tanker attacks are becoming more frequent
• 4:38
  and potentially less discriminating.
• 4:40
  Now the Strait of Hormuz is only half of the story.
• 4:43
  We've also been closely tracking Iran's other
• 4:45
  major pressure point on international shipping,
• 4:47
  and that would be the Bab al-Mdeb Strait,
• 4:50
  where the Houthis have spent months threatening vessels moving between the Red Sea
• 4:54
  and the Gulf of Aden.
• 4:56
  But that strategy is now running into serious headwinds as well.
• 4:59
  Saudi-backed Yemeni forces have launched a major offensive against the Houthis,
• 5:03
  retaking positions around Dubab
• 5:05
  and pushing back toward areas overlooking the Bab al-Mandeb.
• 5:09
  The broader operation is now openly aimed
• 5:11
  at retaking Sana'a and breaking Houthi control
• 5:14
  of Yemen's capital.
• 5:16
  So when we look at where things stand,
• 5:19
  At the Strait of Hormuz,
• 5:21
  oil traffic is returning despite Iran's pressure.
• 5:24
  In the Bab al Mandeb Strait.
• 5:25
  The Houthis are now facing a Saudi-backed campaign
• 5:28
  aimed at rolling back the territorial gains
• 5:30
  that helped them threaten that waterway.
• 5:33
  Those are the two choke points through which Iran and its allies have been
• 5:36
  able to impose enormous economic pressure on the region and the wider world.
• 5:40
  And right now
• 5:42
  both
• 5:42
  are moving in the wrong direction for the regime.
• 5:46
  Alright,
• 5:46
  coming up next,
• 5:47
  the US pulls its B-1 bombers out of a key British base amid security concerns,
• 5:52
  while a former Russian serviceman accused of torturing Ukrainian POWs
• 5:57
  is killed in a car bombing in Russia.
• 5:59
  I'll be right back.
• 6:02
  Hey,
• 6:03
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• 7:32
  Welcome back to the BDB.
• 7:34
  The Pentagon has brought home every bomber that
• 7:36
  it had stationed at RAF Fairford in England.
• 7:39
  All 12 remaining B-1s have returned to the US,
• 7:42
  leaving America's main
• 7:44
  European bomber base without any actual bombers.
• 7:47
  To understand the significance of that,
• 7:49
  consider the history here.
• 7:51
  Fairford's role in American strategic bomber operations
• 7:54
  stretches back more than 70 years,
• 7:56
  and during the war against Iran,
• 7:58
  it became a major launch point for strikes against the regime.
• 8:02
  Flight trackers spotted the aircraft leaving over the weekend.
• 8:05
  The Pentagon subsequently confirmed their departure,
• 8:07
  quote,
• 8:07
  While operational security precluded us from confirming the movement
• 8:11
  of our assets and forces in real time,
• 8:13
  all US bombers that were deployed to RAF Fairford
• 8:17
  have redeployed to their home stations in the US
• 8:20
  Now,
• 8:20
  as for why they left,
• 8:22
  anonymous American officials told the Wall Street Journal on Sunday
• 8:25
  that the decision came down to security
• 8:27
  concerns over suspected plots against the base.
• 8:30
  For those who have been following our coverage,
• 8:32
  you'll remember that 6 suspects were arrested in
• 8:34
  connection with what American and British officials said
• 8:37
  was a suspected attack foiled just this past month.
• 8:41
  British Prime Minister Andy Burnham
• 8:43
  subsequently said there were strong indications
• 8:46
  that Iran played a role.
• 8:48
  According to the Journal,
• 8:49
  US officials were aware of an alleged Iran-linked plot
• 8:52
  to attack American bomber aircraft and kill personnel
• 8:55
  at RAF Fairford.
• 8:57
  And a senior US official offered the paper more
• 9:00
  detail about how it was supposed to work.
• 9:02
  A branch of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,
• 9:05
  the IRGC,
• 9:06
  had allegedly recruited British nationals
• 9:08
  to carry it out
• 9:10
  with multiple steps planned,
• 9:11
  including a diversion in the nearby neighborhood.
• 9:14
  So the alleged targets were both America's
• 9:16
  bombers and the Americans operating them.
• 9:19
  Yet the suspects were released on bail one day after they were picked up,
• 9:23
  with British authorities
• 9:24
  still investigating and
• 9:25
  major questions about what happened and who was behind it
• 9:28
  still left unanswered.
• 9:30
  Now,
• 9:30
  as I've mentioned,
• 9:31
  Iran denies involvement.
• 9:32
  There's a shock,
• 9:34
  but a NATO military source warned Monday,
• 9:36
  quote,
• 9:36
  It is still believed
• 9:37
  that Iran poses an acute threat to US assets in the UK.
• 9:42
  Secretary of State Marco Rubio though
• 9:43
  is cautioning against directly connecting that departure
• 9:47
  to the suspected Iranian plot.
• 9:49
  Asked yesterday whether the plot prompted the move,
• 9:52
  Rubio said,
• 9:53
  quote,
• 9:53
  I wouldn't just directly tie that to the move that was made.
• 9:56
  His explanation was that these decisions depend
• 9:58
  on where military assets are needed.
• 10:00
  Quote,
• 10:01
  The Department of War is constantly reallocating resources
• 10:04
  where they need to be.
• 10:06
  Rubio also said Washington remains confident in the security of all its bases.
• 10:10
  And that leaves us with American officials citing
• 10:12
  security concerns in their comments to the Journal,
• 10:15
  while Rubio stops short of tying the withdrawal directly to the suspected plot.
• 10:21
  Whatever prompted the decision,
• 10:22
  there's a practical reason that this matters for American military operations.
• 10:27
  Flying from Britain puts those bombers considerably closer to Iran.
• 10:31
  Then launching from the continental US
• 10:33
  at the height of the war,
• 10:34
  roughly two dozen B-1s and B-52s were deployed to Fairford.
• 10:38
  The B-1 was especially useful
• 10:40
  because of the large number of munitions that it could carry.
• 10:43
  As the conflict dragged on,
• 10:44
  that force gradually got smaller.
• 10:46
  The B-52s left,
• 10:47
  and some B-1s returned home,
• 10:49
  leaving the dozen aircraft that have now also withdrawn.
• 10:54
  So whatever the full explanation for bringing them home,
• 10:56
  the result is a significant change in America's deployment of bombers.
• 11:01
  All right,
• 11:02
  I want to shift now to Russia,
• 11:03
  where the list of men linked to Moscow's war effort
• 11:06
  and killed in car bombings has reportedly grown again.
• 11:09
  The latest is a former prison official accused by
• 11:12
  Ukraine of helping beat and electrocute prisoners of war.
• 11:16
  In a new report from the Kiev Post,
• 11:18
  we know his name is Roman Siramanikov,
• 11:21
  and according to Russian telegram channels,
• 11:24
  an explosive device planted beneath the driver's side of his car
• 11:28
  detonated on Friday in western Russia,
• 11:30
  some 120 miles south of Moscow.
• 11:34
  A local news outlet also reported his death on Saturday.
• 11:37
  Russian authorities,
• 11:38
  however,
• 11:38
  have not confirmed that Nirra Matnikov was the person killed.
• 11:42
  Now to understand the accusations against him,
• 11:44
  we should look at his time working inside Russia's prison system.
• 11:48
  Sarah Matnikov worked for the country's Federal Penitentiary Service
• 11:52
  before signing a contract with the Russian Defense Ministry in 2023
• 11:56
  and serving with the 106th Guard's Airborne Division in Ukraine.
• 12:01
  But it's his alleged treatment of captured Ukrainian soldiers inside Russia
• 12:05
  that drew the attention of Ukrainian prosecutors.
• 12:08
  Ukraine's prosecutor general's office accuses Saramatnikov of involvement in
• 12:12
  the torture of at least 50 Ukrainian prisoners of war
• 12:15
  held at a penal colony in Russia's Tula region,
• 12:18
  and what investigators allege
• 12:20
  is fairly severe.
• 12:22
  They say that he and other prison employees beat captured soldiers with batons,
• 12:26
  pipes,
• 12:26
  and hammers
• 12:28
  and subjected them to electric shocks.
• 12:31
  These were Ukrainian troops already in Russian custody,
• 12:34
  of course,
• 12:34
  as prisoners of war depended on their captors
• 12:37
  for their safety.
• 12:39
  Now Sara Matnikov has reportedly been killed
• 12:41
  in the same Russian region where those abuses allegedly took place.
• 12:45
  And while we don't know who carried out this bombing,
• 12:47
  his reported fate
• 12:48
  echoes that of several members of Russia's top brass killed during the war.
• 12:53
  Part of a broader pattern of attacks targeting military
• 12:56
  personnel and others connected to Moscow's war effort.
• 13:00
  If you're a regular PDB listener,
• 13:02
  you've heard me talk about these attacks before,
• 13:04
  with Kiev's intelligence sources linking at least
• 13:06
  a dozen high profile assassinations and localized blasts
• 13:10
  to Ukrainian security services.
• 13:12
  One of the most recent cases cited in that reporting came in June of 2026
• 13:17
  when Colonel Damir Davidov was killed in a car bombing outside Moscow.
• 13:22
  Davidov held a critical logistics position directly
• 13:26
  managing the supply lines carrying heavy artillery shells and missiles
• 13:30
  to Russian units fighting on the front.
• 13:32
  His role helps explain the stakes of that broader campaign.
• 13:36
  Those supply lines keep Russian forces armed and
• 13:38
  able to continue their attacks on Ukraine.
• 13:42
  So,
• 13:42
  you ask,
• 13:43
  where do Ukraine's intelligence agencies fit into this.
• 13:46
  The Security Service of Ukraine,
• 13:47
  known as the SPU,
• 13:48
  and Ukraine's military intelligence Directorate,
• 13:50
  known as the HUR
• 13:52
  have been linked to previous targeted killings.
• 13:55
  An SPU source
• 13:56
  confirmed the agency's responsibility for the December 2024 bombing
• 14:00
  that killed Russian General Igor Kirillov in Moscow,
• 14:03
  and Ukrainian military intelligence
• 14:05
  has claimed responsibility for other attacks.
• 14:09
  But that history does not tell us who planted the bomb in Sira Matnikov's car.
• 14:13
  Ukraine has acknowledged responsibility for
• 14:15
  some targeted killings inside Russia,
• 14:17
  while remaining silent on others.
• 14:20
  The reporting on this explosion so far does not establish
• 14:23
  who exactly carried it out.
• 14:26
  And in today's back of the brief,
• 14:27
  a suspected Chinese agent has been arrested at Los Angeles Airport in LAX
• 14:32
  after allegedly gathering information on the son of Taiwan's president
• 14:36
  while he was living in the US.
• 14:38
  More on that
• 14:39
  when we come back.
• 14:42
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• 14:42
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• 17:12
  In today's back of the brief,
• 17:14
  a suspected Chinese agent is
• 17:16
  arrested at Los Angeles Airport,
• 17:17
  LAX,
• 17:18
  while attempting to board a flight to Shanghai.
• 17:21
  Investigators allege she was spying on the
• 17:23
  Taiwanese president's son here in the US,
• 17:26
  gathering information Beijing could use
• 17:29
  to pressure Taiwan's leader.
• 17:30
  The woman at the center of this case is 34 year old Wang Ying Zhong,
• 17:35
  a realtor from Southern California.
• 17:37
  Well,
• 17:37
  realtors make the best spies,
• 17:39
  don't they?
• 17:39
  She now faces a charge of acting as an unregistered agent of a foreign government.
• 17:44
  According to law enforcement sources who spoke with CBS News,
• 17:47
  her target was Ting Yuai,
• 17:50
  the son of Taiwanese President Lai Qingde.
• 17:52
  He's an engineer in his 30s,
• 17:54
  living stateside with his wife and their young American-born son.
• 17:58
  The FBI says Zhong and an accomplice
• 18:01
  traveled to the Seattle area and took photographs at the family's suburban home,
• 18:05
  and investigators say the reason for that surveillance.
• 18:07
  It could be straightforward.
• 18:08
  Information about the president's close relatives,
• 18:11
  their homes,
• 18:11
  vehicles,
• 18:12
  movements could potentially give Beijing leverage over Taiwan's
• 18:16
  leader during a future crisis or conflict.
• 18:19
  But how does a California realtor allegedly end up with that assignment?
• 18:23
  Now that is a question worth asking.
• 18:26
  I'll take you back to June of 2025,
• 18:28
  several months before the surveillance occurred in Seattle.
• 18:31
  According to the complaint,
• 18:32
  Zhong attended Beijing's University of International Relations,
• 18:35
  which investigators say
• 18:37
  has close ties to China's Ministry of State Security,
• 18:40
  the MSS,
• 18:41
  Beijing's main civilian intelligence agency.
• 18:44
  The MSS's responsibilities roughly
• 18:47
  combine the CIA's foreign intelligence work
• 18:49
  with the FBI's counterintelligence functions.
• 18:52
  Investigators say a former classmate introduced Zhong
• 18:55
  to a Chinese government official.
• 18:57
  She allegedly met with that official during a trip to China
• 19:00
  and was given the surveillance assignment.
• 19:02
  Afterward,
• 19:03
  according to the complaint,
• 19:04
  Zhong sent a message saying,
• 19:05
  quote,
• 19:06
  I can take care
• 19:07
  of this thing.
• 19:08
  Then in late August,
• 19:09
  she allegedly told her contact she planned to travel to Seattle the following week.
• 19:14
  Less than a week later,
• 19:14
  on September 1st,
• 19:16
  the FBI says Zhang and a man identified in the complaint only as Individual One
• 19:21
  flew from Las Vegas to Seattle.
• 19:23
  They rented a car and drove to the family's suburban home
• 19:26
  that evening.
• 19:27
  Ting Yu,
• 19:28
  his wife,
• 19:28
  and their child arrived home.
• 19:30
  A neighbor's security camera allegedly captured Zhong
• 19:33
  and her accomplice appearing to film them.
• 19:36
  CBS News says it independently matched
• 19:38
  the images included in the criminal complaint
• 19:40
  to an address near Seattle owned by Ting Yu.
• 19:43
  Then Zhang allegedly reported back to her Chinese government contact,
• 19:47
  quote,
• 19:47
  saw him,
• 19:48
  young male.
• 19:49
  She allegedly told the contact she was recording video
• 19:52
  and then sent two license plate numbers.
• 19:55
  So,
• 19:55
  how did investigators get those messages?
• 19:58
  The FBI obtained a search warrant for Zhang's iCloud account
• 20:01
  and recovered them from there.
• 20:03
  And according to the criminal complaint,
• 20:04
  she was communicating with more than one
• 20:07
  apparent Chinese government contact.
• 20:09
  Of course,
• 20:10
  the allegations against Young
• 20:12
  still have to be proven in court,
• 20:14
  OK.
• 20:15
  And that,
• 20:16
  my friends,
• 20:16
  is the president's daily brief for Tuesday,
• 20:19
  the 6th of October.
• 20:20
  Now,
• 20:20
  if you have any questions or comments,
• 20:21
  just reach out to me at PDB@hefirsttv.com.
• 20:25
  And I hope if you haven't already,
• 20:27
  you'll take a few moments to check out our YouTube channel.
• 20:30
  As the kids these days say,
• 20:32
  it's a humdinger.
• 20:33
  Just wander over to YouTube and search up at President's Daily Brief.
• 20:37
  And if you like what you see,
• 20:38
  and I hope you do,
• 20:39
  hopefully you'll hit that subscribe button.
• 20:41
  I'm Mike Baker,
• 20:42
  and I'll be back later today.
• 20:43
  With the PDB afternoon bulletin.
• 20:46
  Until then,
• 20:47
  stay informed,
• 20:48
  stay safe,
• 20:49
  stay cool.