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End of the Cold War · Saberian History Lectures

0:00
I actually have a lot I want to get through.
0:02
These are kind of interrelated, kind of not.
0:05
I'm actually running two timelines here. Bear
0:09
with me. You might want to write this down because
0:11
this is heavy stuff and I don't like how the
0:13
book deals with it. I know it's Friday. I know
0:14
we have a lot in play here. This is Russian history
0:19
very quickly. The USSR, the Union of Soviet Socialist
0:25
Republics, is begun in the October Revolution
0:27
of 1917. 1917, Russian Revolution. The Tsar is
0:35
out, Lenin is in, and the Russians make their
0:42
separate peace with the Germans at the Treaty
0:44
of Brest -Litovsk. We talked about this back
0:49
under Woodrow Wilson. Late 1930s, Soviets sign
0:55
a non -aggression pact with Nazi Germany. Germany
0:58
breaks that, so about 1941 to 1945. World War
1:05
II, or as they call it in the Russian history,
1:08
the Great Patriotic War. World War II, Soviet
1:14
Union is an ally of the United States and of
1:17
Great Britain because the enemy of my enemy is
1:19
my friend for now. After World War II, some people
1:25
say as early as 1946, the authority on the Cold
1:28
War, John Louis Gaddis, has 1951 to 1991 as the
1:34
period of the Cold War. At that time, to maintain
1:46
control over its buffer states, the Soviet Union
1:49
will set up satellite states or buffer states.
1:53
The buffer states include Poland, Hungary, and
2:05
Czechoslovakia. I might forgive you if you misspelled
2:13
Czechoslovakia. That's one word you don't want
2:17
to get on the spelling bee, right? In Soviet
2:23
Russia, the word spells you. Now, 1961, Berlin
2:33
Wall was built. In the late 50s, early 60s, you
2:45
have a series of Russian interventions when there
2:48
have been nationalist uprisings. For example,
2:50
you had the uprising in Hungary during the Eisenhower
2:53
administration and whatnot. 1964 to 1975, Vietnam.
3:12
I kind of neglected to mention the Korean War,
3:14
that's 1951 to 1953. Didn't mean to neglect to
3:19
mention it. Now, you also have in this period
3:29
of 1968, really till 1980, that period of détente
3:33
between the US and the Soviet Union. Now, what
3:36
is détente, if you think about it? We've talked
3:39
about it before. Okay think about this for a
3:43
moment, it's not unrest, detente. By the way,
4:01
what English word does that remind you of, you
4:04
who are still in school? Detention. meaning to
4:10
hold someone back. So if you're talking about
4:12
a situation of détente, you're actually talking
4:15
about a situation of people holding back. Holding
4:18
back from what? What was the doctrine before
4:23
détente? Well, the part of that containment strategy
4:28
was the doctrine of massive retaliation. And
4:32
so here you have the containment policy which
4:36
was based largely on So you have containment,
4:40
you have massive retaliation. Detente was a period
4:46
of coexistence between the US and the USSR. Now,
4:54
the thing that's interesting about coexistence
4:57
is for the Soviet Union in the 1970s and into
5:00
the early 1980s, if I looked at a map of the
5:08
world in 1979, would I think that the victory
5:13
of the West over communism was inevitable. No.
5:18
You as a generation of humans never grew up worried
5:23
about a nuclear exchange between the United States
5:27
and the Soviet Union. None of you, all of you
5:32
were born after the fall of the Berlin Wall.
5:35
All of you were born after the end of the Russian,
5:39
end of the Soviet Union, the beginning of the
5:41
Russian Federation. My own generation, I am the
5:46
tail end of Generation X. I remember when the
5:51
Berlin Wall came down. I remember when the coup
5:55
against Gorbachev happened. I remember on the
6:00
news watching the Gulf War. So in the 1980s,
6:08
the idea that the United States would overcome
6:11
communism was not a foregone conclusion. How
6:15
is it that the United States overcame Soviet
6:18
communism? Well, you have a number of things
6:19
in place First you have the increase in defense
6:29
spending Or we'll just say the defense buildup
6:33
under President Reagan the Russians reciprocate
6:44
to reciprocate means to do likewise and they
6:49
are unable to keep up because Here's the thing
6:52
in a capitalist society You have capital, you
6:56
have credit, you have imports, you have exports,
6:58
you have commodities. What is the primary export
7:00
of the Soviet Union? It's the same primary export
7:03
of the Russian Republic today. Oil and gas, yes?
7:08
You have in the 1980s, the United States encouraging
7:13
Saudi Arabia to increase their oil production
7:16
to reduce the value of oil. Now, simultaneously,
7:19
that also screws with the Iranians, the Iraqis,
7:24
Texas, Venezuela. Venezuela becomes a hardcore
7:30
leftist regime because their oil became devalued.
7:33
Actually, the economic tumult that led to the
7:36
rise of Hugo Chavez in Venezuela can be attributed
7:39
to the low prices of oil in the 1980s. Yes? So
7:42
how did the Soviets trade if their money wasn't
7:44
worth anything? They'd trade the commodity. In
7:47
other words... They would just get it directly
7:48
back? Right, and so you sell, in other words,
7:52
you sell the oil for... a currency that is tradable
7:56
for gold, to buy what you need to finance what
7:59
you need. Does that make sense? So they can't
8:02
tax their way because their money's no good.
8:05
You get what I'm saying? Now, so what you have,
8:09
and this is how even today you'll notice Russia
8:12
became much more muscular after gasoline prices
8:15
were very high. In our recent history, you all
8:18
may remember the summer of 2009 where like gasoline
8:21
was like five bucks a gallon? Yes. Yeah. That
8:25
was not because of American domestic consumption.
8:29
That was actually because the Chinese economy
8:31
was growing at 7%. They slowed down a little
8:35
bit. That's part of the reason why gasoline is
8:36
more reasonable. I mean, besides increases in
8:38
production, there is also that element. So anyway,
8:42
so oil and gas production goes up. This actually
8:45
leads to an economic destabilization of the Soviet
8:48
Union. The economic destabilization of the Soviet
8:57
Union also There are political destabilizations
9:01
of the Soviet Union. So Mikhail Gorbachev emerges
9:04
as the General Secretary of the Communist Party
9:12
in Russia after some tumult in the early 80s.
9:16
So Brezhnev dies and then there's other leaders
9:18
of the Soviet Union. Finally he stabilizes the
9:21
regime. But you have political instability within
9:26
the Communist Party. You have reformers like
9:31
Gorbachev and you have hardliners in the Soviet
9:36
system. So you have reformers versus hardliners.
9:43
Now again, when you're trying to reform a country,
9:48
so one of the things that Gorbachev brings to
9:51
the Soviet Union is a concept called glasnost
9:53
and peristorica, openness and transparency. Now
9:56
again, Our openness and transparency in the Soviet
9:59
constitution, I don't mean their governmental
10:01
constitution, I mean is it in the nature of their
10:04
Soviet republic? When you think about who was
10:06
really the guy behind the creation of the Soviet
10:09
Union, Lenin, Marxist -Leninist, and Joseph Stalin,
10:14
where, you know, was there a freedom of thought
10:17
in the Soviet Union? Yes, wait, there was. You
10:20
were free to think like a Marxist -Leninist.
10:22
That was it. You are free to think our way. So
10:27
does a society that is not usually have a vibrant
10:31
political culture all of a sudden when you start
10:33
asking for openness does that bode well for stability?
10:39
No. So and I kind of want to keep going because
10:44
really I think of this end of the Cold War even
10:47
though it stretches Throughout the administration
10:49
of President Reagan and into the presidency of
10:52
George Bush the Elder, I can think of this as
10:54
a single period. So you have destabilization
10:57
continuing. America undergoes its own economic
11:02
calamity in the form of the stock market crash
11:04
of 1987. This was largely because the banks overextended
11:08
themselves. Again, you have a period of growth,
11:11
1981, 82, all the way into 87, largely a result
11:15
of the Reagan tax cuts. But again, our capital
11:19
markets, new capital comes in, people overextend,
11:22
and the capital dries up because fundamentally
11:24
capitalism is a quotient of credit, and credit
11:26
is little more than belief. So, in 1988, George
11:34
Bush the Elder wins a decent electoral mandate,
11:40
but only wins by six million votes, riding largely
11:43
on the popularity of Ronald Reagan, who was immensely
11:46
popular in his own time. But again, people have
11:48
often said George Bush the Elder was Reagan's
11:51
third term. So the democracy movement abroad.
11:56
I'm going to get to the debt and the recession
11:57
a little bit later. I want to take care of the
11:59
foreign policy stuff, then I'll get to the domestic
12:01
stuff, because actually the domestics behind
12:03
the election of Clinton is really interesting.
12:07
So you have democracy abroad. So you have political
12:12
instability in the USSR. You have, for lack of
12:19
a better word, tumult in the buffer states. Now
12:24
remember, After World War II, the Soviet Union
12:27
had created puppet governments in Poland, in
12:30
Hungary, in Romania, in Yugoslavia, and in Germany
12:33
to serve as a buffer against an invasion from
12:36
the West. Had the Russians been invaded from
12:38
the West before, first by Napoleon, then by Hitler,
12:42
and so they were concerned about an invasion
12:43
from the West by NATO. So you have nationalist
12:49
movements, you have the Solidarity Movement in
12:51
Poland, You have other nationalist uprisings
12:55
in Germany and in Romania and in Hungary and
13:01
whatnot. And so here in the graphic you see someone
13:09
taking a hammer to the Berlin Wall. So the government
13:13
in eastern Germany had dissolved and so Berlin
13:19
was to be reunited. And so what you have is people
13:24
in West Berlin attacking the wall with a sledgehammer.
13:29
Eventually they use industrial equipment and
13:31
breach the wall and Germany is united and the
13:33
Berlin Wall fell. Now one of the things I'm going
13:35
to tell you, how do I know this man is on the
13:37
western side of the wall? The graffiti. I don't
13:43
know if I told this class or the other class
13:45
this. Have any of you been to College Station?
13:51
Have any of you been to the George Bush Library
13:55
and Museum? In the George Bush Library and Museum
13:58
is a very large piece of the Berlin Wall. It
14:01
is probably about 20 feet wide and it is the
14:14
height of the wall. You can tell which side is
14:19
which because the western side is graffitied
14:22
and colorful and it is a work of art. The eastern
14:28
side is sterile. There is no artwork. It is completely
14:33
blank. And I think that tells us something about
14:37
the dangers of authoritarian ideology. Authoritarian
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ideology vanquishes thought. And there is no
14:45
art. There is no expression. And there is no
14:50
advancement. As Orwell said in 1984, there will
14:54
be no art, no literature, no science. When we
14:57
are omnipotent, we shall have no need. of science.
15:04
So, Berlin Wall comes down. Now, previously in
15:08
the Soviet Union, if there had been uprisings
15:10
in the buffer states, what would they have done?
15:14
They would have crushed the rebellion with tanks,
15:17
as they did in Budapest, as they had in other
15:20
places. But this time they didn't, largely because
15:23
they had their own political turmoil at home.
15:26
Also, the other thing is you have one other thing
15:30
that is bleeding the Soviet Union. the Middle
15:34
East. Well, and I don't, I mean Afghanistan is
15:37
sort of the eastern end of the Middle East. So
15:39
you have Afghanistan. The Soviets have devoted
15:43
blood and treasure to the occupation of Afghanistan.
15:49
So you have, Soviet occupation begins in 1979,
15:53
the Soviets withdraw. They invade in 79. They're
15:59
fighting the Mujahideen. The Mujahideen, as I
16:03
said, those who make holy war. supported by the
16:06
United States, by the Iranians, by the Saudis.
16:09
There were a lot of people who didn't want the
16:11
Russians in Afghanistan besides, you know, the
16:14
Afghans. Okay? So the collapse of the Soviet
16:19
Union occurs because they were economically,
16:25
politically, and peripherally unstable. So let
16:32
me get to the death knell. So the end of Soviet
16:38
communism, by the way, is at the end of communism.
16:43
It's the end of the Soviet Union. The end of
16:46
the Soviet Union is August 1991. August 1991,
16:54
hardliners stage a coup against Mikhail Gorbachev.
16:58
The coup fails and the Russians dissolve the
17:02
Soviet Union and become this new Russian Federation.
17:05
Other states will break off. These are states
17:08
in the Caucasus, Azerbaijan, also Ukraine, Kazakhstan,
17:12
Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, all of those relatively...
17:15
Countries, many of them, whom used to be part
17:18
of the Persian Empire back in the 1750s. They
17:21
become separate. But that's the end of the Cold
17:24
War. But there's another dimension that I want
17:28
to get into because I have time and because it
17:30
relates. And that is the creation of our modern
17:35
Middle East. And in many ways, the creation of
17:38
our modern Middle East is inextricably intertwined
17:43
with the end of the Cold War. So let's get to
17:49
the map. So first of all, if you're looking at
17:53
the graphic, it says Allied soldiers during the
17:56
Gulf War next to a picture of Saddam in military
17:59
uniform. For those of you who know weapons, how
18:02
can I tell what soldiers these people are from,
18:04
actually, in the photo? It's kind of hard to
18:08
tell from the distance. I'll see if I can zoom
18:10
it in. No, you are not imagining things. That
18:14
is a French -made FAMAS. And so that's how you
18:17
know that these are not Americans. This bullpup
18:21
design is a French -made 5 .56 assault rifle.
18:26
And if I had to guess, probably French Foreign
18:28
Legion. But anyway. Well, from a distance you
18:36
can't tell that that's not, it's not American
18:39
camouflage, it's French OD green. But anyway.
18:41
But yeah, probably that. But getting into the
18:44
particulars. Actually I don't want to get to
18:46
the graphic, I want to get to the map. Because
18:50
that was the uniforms they had in stock. Okay,
18:56
so let's get to the map. And I know every time
19:02
I talk about a map I kind of feel like Dora the
19:04
Explorer. And the map. I am the map. All right.
19:09
Okay, so let's look at the map. Let's go east
19:13
to west. Israel. Israel established as a nation
19:24
state when? As a modern nation state recognized
19:27
by the United States, 1948. Well, recognized
19:31
by Harry Truman, 1947, 1948. So 1940s. 1948,
19:36
recognized by the US. So if I could classify
19:39
Israel in terms of the Cold War, it is a US ally.
19:44
Yes? Israel is a US ally now and has been since
19:49
its inception. One of the other things that you
19:52
get when you're a US ally, what do you get when
19:54
you're a US ally in the Middle East? You don't
19:59
get US troops. US made weapons. So any weapons
20:05
the Israelis don't make themselves, they usually
20:07
buy from us. Okay? So they're a U .S. ally, which
20:12
means they have U .S.-made weapons. After they've
20:15
forged themselves, and they do make some of their
20:17
own, so for example, the Galil is actually a
20:19
copy of the Russian AK -47, but it shoots 5 .56
20:22
rounds. But anyway. Quite possibly, but it is
20:28
my understanding they buy their aircraft from
20:30
the United States. A fair number of their aircraft
20:33
are American -made, like, used to be American
20:35
F -16s, and now I think we're selling, I don't
20:37
know if we're selling them F -22s or not. But
20:41
no, I mean, for the longest time, Israel had
20:45
American -made jets and Saudi Arabia has American
20:47
-made jets. Wait, let me get to the bit. Saudi
20:52
Arabia, so a U .S. ally. Again, Saudi Arabia
21:04
doesn't get the warm fuzzy feeling towards Israel,
21:06
so there is that whole Muslim -Jewish animosity
21:09
thing going on there. But does Israel actually
21:12
share a border with Saudi Arabia? No. Who's in
21:16
the middle? Jordan. Jordan, also a U .S. ally
21:21
as part of the conditions of the peace they made
21:23
with Israel after the Seven Day War. So Jordan,
21:27
U .S. ally, kind of interesting. King of Jordan,
21:34
King Abdullah, which I remember back when he
21:37
was Prince Abdullah because his father was the
21:38
king, both have American wives. Kind of interesting.
21:43
That's one way to keep yourself out of trouble.
21:46
Actually, King Abdullah, back when he was Prince
21:48
Abdullah, made a cameo on I forget if it was
21:52
when he was a king or a prince. He made a cameo
21:53
on a Star Trek episode. I can show it to you.
21:57
It's really quite remarkable. But anyway, all
21:59
right. So who else is near Israel? Now Lebanon,
22:07
hot mess. Lebanon's been in a civil war for some
22:09
time. Lebanon's still not exactly the most placid
22:12
place God put on the face of the earth. It was
22:14
in a civil war from 1983 on. Who's north? Syria.
22:24
Does Syria get the feels for Israel? Yeah. Not
22:28
the warm fuzzy feels, the I hate you feels, yes?
22:32
Not an ally, not a friend of Israel. And the
22:36
enemy of, and sorry, and so if you're Syria and
22:41
you need weapons, the enemy of my enemy is my
22:47
friend. I thought Arabs always loved Hebrew.
22:50
You're funny. But in this case, who is the enemy?
22:55
of my enemy if Israel is an ally of the United
22:59
States, the Soviet Union. So Syria is a Soviet
23:05
client. Now I use the term Soviet client very
23:09
carefully because unlike Poland, unlike Hungary,
23:17
the Soviet Union did not set up a puppet state
23:20
in Syria. What you had in Syria was the rise
23:23
of what was called Bathism. Bathism was national
23:27
socialism for the Arab. It was actually a rather
23:30
forced -style progressive nationalism, but even
23:34
though they're nationalists, why would they want
23:36
Russian weapons? Because they can't ally themselves
23:39
with the United States because Israel is a fundamental
23:41
enemy. You get the idea. So they're not communist,
23:44
but they have communist -made weapons and they're
23:47
ally and they have Allies of the Soviet Union.
23:50
Now, here's the thing. If you're Syria, what
23:52
do you possibly have to offer the Soviet Union?
23:56
A port into the Mediterranean. So in exchange
24:01
for Russian weapons and Russian support, the
24:04
Russians have a naval base at Latakia in Syria.
24:10
Well, no. Rather, the circumstance that was set
24:13
up in the 60s, in the 70s, is now becoming relevant.
24:19
Alright, now. Who's next to Syria? Iraq. Iraq
24:25
was a monarchy under the British sphere of influence.
24:29
Eventually that monarchy collapses. Now this
24:31
is where it gets interesting. 1979 or 1980, Iraq
24:37
goes from being a monarchy to being a Ba 'athist
24:40
dictatorship under Saddam Hussein al -Takriti.
24:50
Ba 'athism, Arab National Socialism. Bathys dictatorship
24:57
under Saddam. Saddam, who comes to power shortly
25:02
after, and so here we have a Soviet client in
25:05
Iraq, so they're both Bathys, they're both Soviet
25:08
clients. You have Iran, used to be a U .S. ally
25:16
and is now a stated enemy of the United States.
25:22
Former U .S. ally goes from being a monarchy
25:28
to a theocracy. So, shortly after the Iranian
25:33
Revolution, the Iraqis attack Iran and starting
25:38
what's called the Iran -Iraq War. Why does Iraq
25:42
attack Iran? Two reasons. One, Iraq senses that
25:44
the Iranian government was weak because it was
25:46
transitioning from a monarchy to a theocracy
25:48
because of the revolution. Two, if you're a Ba
25:51
'athist, why is war good for you? Because you're
25:56
a nationalist and anybody who opposes you is
25:59
now a traitor. You get the idea? The use of war
26:04
to maintain control. Sound familiar? These two
26:10
kill each other in strange and unusual ways,
26:12
including the Iraqis actually use poison gas.
26:16
The Iranians do use suicide bombers. One of the
26:18
things that they used to do is they used to give
26:19
the small children these keys. They were called
26:21
the keys of the heavens. They would run towards
26:23
the Iraqi tanks and blow themselves up. The United
26:29
States provided arms and intelligence to both
26:33
sides because the United States didn't know which
26:35
one they liked less. Because the enemy of my
26:40
enemy is my friend, except when the enemy of
26:42
my enemy is my enemy, except if I don't like
26:44
either of them, I just want to keep the killing
26:46
going because I don't want to deal with them.
26:49
Now, eventually there is a peace between Iran
26:52
and Iraq. That's 1986 -1987. And you have Kuwait.
27:02
So 1990, 1990, Iraq invades Kuwait. And apparently
27:15
even Mr. Thomas's seventh period feels the need
27:18
to find itself in the tape, but anyway. Alright,
27:21
so 1990 Iraq invades Kuwait. Why? Because they
27:29
can. And again, had the Iraqi regime engaged
27:34
in hostile warfare before? Yes. Now here was
27:39
the concern. One, you have to protect the territorial
27:41
sovereignty of Kuwait because if the Iraqis had
27:45
taken Kuwait, who might be next? Who is a stated
27:49
U .S. ally? And so from August of 1990 through
27:55
January of 1991, there is a military buildup
27:59
and in January of 1991, Operation Desert Storm
28:07
occurs. The United States, by force of arms,
28:13
pushes the Iraqi army out of Kuwait. A couple
28:19
of other things about the consequences of that.
28:23
You have the destabilization of the Iraqi regime.
28:26
You have The rise of Kurdish independence here
28:31
protected by an American no -fly zone that was
28:33
maintained from 1991 until 2003. A couple of
28:40
things going on about Iraq I want to get into.
28:45
So I told you that Iraq was the Soviet Union's
28:50
premier weapons client. Now the overall war against
28:54
Iraq from the bombing of Baghdad to the rout
28:56
of the Iraqi army took six weeks. Now, the United
29:03
States did not invade Iraq proper. The United
29:06
States had no designs to take Baghdad, although
29:08
there were contingency plans for that. Now here's
29:11
the part I want you to keep in mind. And this
29:13
may sound a bit tinfoil hat, but I think you
29:16
might want to listen. Saddam had bought all of
29:23
Russia's best military equipment. The same MiGs,
29:27
the same tanks, and Baghdad had the same air
29:30
defense system as Moscow. So I point something
29:36
out to you. Six weeks from January to February
29:40
of 1991, the United States defeats an army with
29:46
the same technology as the Soviet Union. And
29:50
in August of 1991, the Soviet Union dissolves.
29:57
What might have been a compelling interest for
30:01
American involvement against Iraq when you can't,
30:04
when you want to show the Soviets how badly they
30:07
would lose a shooting war with the United States,
30:09
but you don't want to get into a shooting war
30:11
with the Soviet Union, what do you do? You take
30:15
the next best thing. Now, with the end of Soviet
30:22
communism and the continued destabilization of
30:28
the Middle East, You will see a rise of a unipolar
30:34
moment where the United States is the world's
30:36
last remaining superpower. But you see how the
30:41
chaos of the Middle East continues to fester.
30:45
That peace, that supremacy, that unipolar moment
30:50
will lead to a political philosophy and give
30:55
space to America's first baby boomer president
30:59
to forget how the world matters to the one world
31:07
power. And so from 1991 to 2001, the United States
31:13
will stand as the world's only superpower. And
31:17
that Pax Americana will fall on 9 -11. Questions,
31:23
problems, concerns?